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MLBTR Podcast: Reviewing Our Free Agent Predictions And Future CBA Issues

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Why did the 2023-24 offseason play out the way that it did? Was the slow offseason a trend or a blip? Looking at competitive balance tax and TV revenue issues. (2:40)
  • The decision between a middleground deal versus a short-term deal, focusing on Cody Bellinger of the Cubs but also other players who didn’t get the huge offers they were expecting (20:00)
  • There were very few long deals this winter, so can we glean anything about the trend of extending contracts to lower the average annual value? (34:50)
  • Why did we project big contracts for players with clear warts? (42:10)
  • Is the middle tier of the free agent market dying? (45:15)
  • With the next CBA negotiations coming after 2026, how will the players respond to recent events? (50:20)
  • Are the owners divided, with rich and poor teams getting pushed apart by the collapse of TV revenue streams? (59:05)
  • Is deferred money a real problem and is there any motivation to change the rules? (1:02:40)
  • Does MLB need more parity and what are the best ways to do it? (1:09:30)
  • Was Shohei Ohtani’s deferred money an extreme outlier or is it still a concerning trend? (1:13:10)
  • Will there be another lockout after 2026? (01:19:35)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Scott Boras Discusses Recent Free Agent Contracts

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The latter stages of the 2023-24 offseason were focused on the so-called “Boras Four.” Each of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery lingered on the open market beyond the start of Spring Training and signed deals below the forecasts from the early winter. Agent Scott Boras, who represents all four of that group, discussed the matter with Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, noting that he and the players were likely going to be deciding between long-term deals or shorter pacts but with higher annual salaries.

“I don’t think their predictions included what we were fully aware of,” Boras said of media predictions coming into the winter, “and that is, clubs were going to come to us and say, ‘We’re not going to look at length with premium AAVs (average annual values) because of what preceded their performance prior to 2023.” He used Snell and Bellinger as examples of how clubs could look past the 2023 season and focus on prior seasons.

“Blake Snell has $30 million a year for a couple of years to go out and just show durability,” Boras said. “Blake Snell doesn’t have to go out and win the Cy Young every year. He’s an extraordinary pitcher. The market viewed him as, what happened in ‘21 and ‘22? The market viewed Cody as, what happened in ‘21 and ‘22? So we knew going into this process that choices were going to be most important. You’re either going to get the appropriate AAV, but you’re not going to get the length, or you’re going to get the length at a much lower AAV, so what do you choose?”

The comments provide an interesting look into the sorts of tough decisions a free agent has to make. Even if a player is incredibly talented and lucky enough to stay healthy beyond their arbitration years, they are likely to only sign one really significant contract in their career. While some players in that position may just take the best guarantee available when the opportunity arises, others seem willing to kick the can down the road if they can’t find the ideal deal.

Snell was surely looking to cash in after a Cy Young-winning season wherein he posted a 2.25 earned run average for the Padres. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell could ride the momentum of his trophy win to a deal of $200MM over seven years, with other media outlets making similar prognostications.

It appears that type of deal never materialized, with the largest reported offer he received being a six-year, $150MM deal from the Yankees. In the end, he pivoted to a two-year, $62MM deal from the Giants, which allows him the chance to opt-out midway through. As Boras alluded to, Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career. He fell short of 130 innings in both 2021 and 2022, with an ERA of 4.20 in the former and 3.38 in the latter.

Bellinger was in a somewhat similar position. He was the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2019 but went through a real rough patch after suffering a shoulder injury. He hit just .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022, getting non-tendered by the Dodgers. A one-year deal with the Cubs gave him the opportunity to bounce back, which he did, hitting 26 home runs and stealing 20 bases while providing quality defense in center field and first base.

It would appear that clubs used the inconsistency of those players to justify not maximizing their offers this winter, so Snell pivoted to the aforementioned short-term deal. Bellinger got a three-year deal worth $80MM to return to the Cubs, with opt-outs after each year. Both players can bank some money this year and hopefully return to the open market next winter, with the extra years on the deal providing a bit of a safety net in the case of renewed struggles or health problems this year.

It’s a tactic Boras has taken before, with Carlos Correa perhaps being the best example prior to this winter. Correa first hit free agency in the winter of 2021-22, which was impacted by the lockout. He didn’t find a deal to his liking prior to the stoppage and hired Boras during the transactions freeze. After the new collective bargaining agreement was agreed to, he signed a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins which allowed him to opt-out after each season.

After another strong season in 2022, he triggered his opt-out and returned to the open market. He finally found the mega deal that he was looking for when he and the Giants agreed to a 13-year, $350MM framework. That deal eventually got scuttled when the Giants grew concerned by Correa’s medicals, as did another pact with the Mets, but Correa still got himself a sizeable $200MM guarantee to return to the Twins. That deal can also max out at $270MM via four vesting options.

That is the type of playbook that each of the Boras four will be looking to follow, though obviously without the part where deals gets thrown out by physicals. Chapman got three years and $54MM from the Giants, also with opt-outs. Montgomery got one year and $25MM from the Diamondbacks, with a vesting player option valued at $20MM if he makes just 10 starts this year.

The hope will be that each can continue to perform well in 2024 and hopefully find better conditions next winter. The 2023-24 offseason saw many clubs scale back spending, either due to competitive balance tax concerns or uncertainty around television revenue. “One billion dollars was removed from the ability to contract players,” is the way Boras frames it. He and his clients will be hoping some of that money is back on the table next winter.

MLBTR Podcast: How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Cubs re-signing Cody Bellinger (1:40)
  • How did he end up with a short-term deal? (3:35)
  • Why would he not take a deal of around six years, $150MM? (5:00)
  • Was this about Bellinger’s Statcast metrics? (8:00)
  • Would Bellinger have gotten a megadeal in a different winter? (11:15)
  • Is there a gulf widening between what superstars can make and what mid-market players can make? (15:55)
  • How does the Bellinger deal affect expectations for the other Boras guys? (19:35)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • We have some brand-name starting pitchers who will be signing contracts after Spring Training games have begun. Historically, how have previous late signings fared after starting their seasons so late? (27:00)
  • Does the Aaron Nola deal look terrible in hindsight? In my opinion, he’s not as good as Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery and Nola got more than every pitcher except for the Dodgers’ guys. Do the Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodríguez deals look smarter than Nola’s too? (30:30)
  • What is the feeling around Juan Soto and where he might be in 2025? I feel like he’s gonna stick with the Yankees but everyone seems to think it’s a one-year location for him. (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Boras, Hoyer Discuss Bellinger Signing

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The Cubs reintroduced Cody Bellinger at a press conference this morning. The two-time All-Star was alongside agent Scott Boras and Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to discuss his protracted free agent process (link to the full presser).

At the start of the offseason, few would’ve expected Bellinger settling for a three-year guarantee worth $80MM. His camp began the winter in search of a much larger offer, reportedly seeking upwards of $200MM. Unsurprisingly, no one confirmed the precise contract terms that Bellinger had sought, although the former MVP conceded he initially expected an extended deal.

“Yeah, I think there’s definitely that thought that goes into it,” Bellinger said when asked if he anticipated signing a long-term contract. “Ultimately, that’s the goal. … I talked to Scott continuously to see what was going on. At the end of the day, I’m super excited how it all worked out. Yes, obviously (thought about a longer deal), but I’m very excited with it all and very happy to get going.”

With the offseason nearing an end, it’s clear that teams weren’t going to meet Bellinger’s asking price on that kind of contract. At that point, he moved to the much shorter term with the ability to opt out and retest free agency in either of the next two offseasons. He’ll collect $30MM for the upcoming season. If he repeats his 2023 production, he’ll almost certainly take another swing at a massive contract — this time without a qualifying offer attached and with potentially greater confidence around the league that he has put his dismal 2021-22 campaigns behind him.

Boras suggested that Bellinger was always targeting one of those outcomes: either an especially long-term deal or a short-term pact with opt-outs. “Cody and I agreed that we’re going to look at this in a couple ways. We’re going to have two positive outcomes for this process. … Our dynamic was to determine what it was on the other end with a contract of great length. As we got through that process and looked to it, that’s certainly where we let Jed know that on something like this — with this kind of structure, with this kind of flexibility, with these kinds of things, is what we’re looking for. We had mutual agreement and understanding that this type of structure was agreeable to both of us.”

Bellinger’s youth certainly plays a part in that. He turns 29 in July, leaving open the possibility of seeking another long-term pact next winter. His camp seemed to prefer that to locking in a five- or six-year contract that would’ve guaranteed more than $80MM but wasn’t close to his initial asking price and wouldn’t have allowed him to get back to the market.

The short term with the higher annual salary works well for the Cubs. Bellinger offers cover in both center field and at first base. Chicago had been set to turn to highly-touted but unproven players in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch at those respective positions. The move pushes the Cubs to a franchise high in terms of player spending.

RosterResource calculates their 2024 payroll around $222MM. They’re at $234MM in estimated luxury tax commitments, just below the $237MM base threshold. It’s probable the Cubs will up end up paying the CBT if they’re as competitive as they hope. Even if this is their final move of the offseason, any salary taken on in midseason acquisitions counts against the CBT on a prorated basis.

Hoyer predictably declined to answer when asked if ownership was willing to pay the luxury tax. He noted that it’s his “expectation” they’ll carry this roster into the season, although he indicated the front office will stay open to opportunities. “Obviously, we’re never going to stop looking. Never put a final nail in that because things come up all the time — trades, free agents. But, it’s the 28th of February, so I think that’s the expectation, though I would never rule anything out.“

Cubs Re-Sign Cody Bellinger

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Cody Bellinger is back with the Cubs. Chicago officially announced his re-signing on a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has scheduled a press conference for Wednesday to welcome him back to the fold. Chicago cleared the necessary 40-man roster spot with this afternoon’s trade sending Bailey Horn back to the White Sox.

Bellinger, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $80MM. The deal pays him $30MM for the upcoming season. He’ll have a $30MM salary for 2025 and be paid $20MM if he remains on the contract in 2026. The deal contains an approximate $26.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes.

Bellinger returns to the Cubs after signing a one-year deal with the club last winter and delivering an excellent platform campaign. In 556 trips to the plate, the 28-year-old slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases while splitting time between center field and first base for Chicago. That performance earned Bellinger a Silver Slugger award and a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting and seemingly left him poised to cash in this winter with a major contract. MLBTR ranked Bellinger as the #2 free agent in this year’s class behind only two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, predicting a 12-year, $264MM deal for the outfielder in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.

As Bellinger’s offseason dragged on, it became apparent a $200MM+ commitment would not be in the cards. In his recent Wednesday mailbag, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $90MM deal with a pair of opt-outs. While Bellinger entered the winter with plenty of big market clubs seemingly in the running for his services including the Giants, Yankees, and Blue Jays, each pivoted in other directions throughout the month of December: San Francisco landed KBO star Jung Hoo Lee to patrol center, Juan Soto was shipped to the Bronx to fill the left-handed void in their outfield mix, and the Blue Jays changed course after missing out on Shohei Ohtani to instead focus on smaller deals for players such as Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That left Bellinger with few clear suitors outside of the incumbent Cubs, though his free agency continued into Spring Training as his camp held out for a long term deal while the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer remained steadfast in waiting out the market. Ultimately, Chicago was rewarded for its patience, as the club will retain Bellinger’s services for at least the 2024 campaign on a relatively low-cost deal similar to the three-year, $105MM deal fellow Boras Corporation client Carlos Correa signed with the Twins two offseasons ago.

A number of factors beyond his relatively small number of suitors likely contributed to Bellinger signing a short-term deal. Excellent as he was in 2023, the slugger struggled badly while contending with shoulder issues and a fractured fibula during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. Though he managed to take the field for 900 plate appearances across the two seasons, he hit a paltry .193/.256/.355 during that time, a far cry from the career .273/.364/.567 slash line he entered the 2021 season with that earned him Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.

While Bellinger’s strong and healthy 2023 campaign certainly helped to assuage the concerns brought on by his dismal campaigns in the prior two seasons, a look at his advanced metrics reveals some cause for concern that the 28-year-old’s 2023 campaign may not be entirely sustainable. While Bellinger’s career-best batting average last season was supported by a career-low 15.6% strikeout rate, it was also propped up by a .319 BABIP that eclipsed his career .277 mark entering the 2023 season by more than 40 points.

That leap in good batted ball fortune came in spite of unusually low contact quality peripherals. Per Statcast, Bellinger’s average exit velocity, barrel rate, and Hard-Hit percentage were all well below average, landing in the 22nd, 27th, and 10th percentile respectively among qualified major leaguers. Taken together, those peripheral numbers left Bellinger with a roughly league average xwOBA of just .330 last year, 40 points below his excellent .370 wOBA. Between his pronounced struggles in recent seasons and the concerning peripherals underlying his 2023 return to form, it’s not a complete shock that Bellinger would land a short-term, opt-out heavy deal that preserves flexibility rather than a lengthy deal that maximizes guarantee.

Such a contract could set Bellinger up for a much more significant payday in the future. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams in his recent look at the possibility of a short-term deal for Bellinger, the slugger is unusually young for a free agent and, as such, may be uniquely suited for a short-term arrangement. If Bellinger can maintain a similar level of production to his 2023 rebound, he’ll be a near lock to opt out of the remaining two years and $50MM on his deal and return to free agency, where he would be marketing his age-29 campaign and be unimpeded by the Qualifying Offer, which the Cubs extended to Bellinger this winter. Next year’s free agent class is also likely to benefit from additional certainty regarding the ongoing Diamond Sports bankruptcy, which has impacted the TV deals of some contenders such as the Rangers and Twins. Those clubs were joined in mostly standing pat by big spending clubs such as the Padres and Mets that faced exorbitant luxury tax bills last year and took this offseason as an opportunity to reset.

In the meantime, Bellinger will return to Chicago, where he immediately improves the club’s lineup and odds of contention in a crowded NL Central dramatically. Bellinger’s 134 wRC+ and .525 slugging led all Cubs hitters with at least 100 trips to the plate last year, while he ranked fourth in terms of on-base percentage. The slugger also provides a much-needed lefty bat to a lineup who complements righty hitters in the lineup such as Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, and Nico Hoerner. In addition to providing the club’s lineup with potentially impactful offense, Bellinger’s versatility offers the Cubs flexibility as they look to incorporate their bevy young hitters into the big league lineup on a regular basis.

Infielder Michael Busch is likely to enter the season as the club’s regular first baseman after the club acquired him from the Dodgers in a deal last month, leaving Bellinger to begin the season as the club’s everyday option in center field. With that being said, top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong lurks after making his big league debut last September and sports 80-grade defense in center field. The club’s reunion with Bellinger takes pressure off Crow-Armstrong, who went hitless in 19 plate appearances during his cup of coffee last fall, to immediately produce at the big league level and allows the Cubs to continue his development at Triple-A to open the year.

Should Crow-Armstrong prove himself ready to take on the everyday job in center sometime this season, Bellinger could shift to an outfield corner, first base, or even DH depending on the health and production of the rest of the lineup. One possibility for the Cubs would be either Busch or Morel establishing themselves as a capable defender at third base, allowing the other to handle DH duties. In that case, Bellinger would be able to move to first base and make room for Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in center, though that’s just one possible option for a Cubs team that could even see 2023 first-round Matt Shaw or top corner outfield prospect Owen Caissie debut sometime this year after strong performances in Double-A last season.

The reunion with Bellinger likely serves as a capstone for an offseason that saw Chicago also land left-hander Shota Imanaga and veteran relief arm Hector Neris in free agency. Club chairman Tom Ricketts recently indicated that the club was unlikely to exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold this winter, and RosterResource projects the club for a $234MM payroll in 2024 for CBT purposes, less than $3MM below the first $237MM threshold. That means a reversal of the stance would be nearly mandatory for the club to make further additions this winter, barring a trade that clears salary elsewhere on the roster.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cubs and Bellinger had agreed to a three-year, $80MM contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL Notes: Mejia, Bellinger, Yankees, Carter, Twins

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The Angels released Francisco Mejia earlier today, and the veteran catcher has already had some “initial talks” with the Rays about a return to Tampa, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Mejia spent the last three seasons as part of the Rays’ catching mix, having time with Mike Zunino, Christian Bethancourt, and Rene Pinto before Tampa Bay designated Mejia for assignment last August and subsequently outrighted him off their 40-man roster.  Mejia chose to remain in the organization rather than opt for free agency in the wake of that outright assignment, but he became a free agent after the season and signed with the Angels on a minor league contract.

Pinto and Alex Jackson look to be Tampa’s preferred catching combo heading into the 2024 season, but the Rays were known to be looking for more depth at the position.  Re-signing a familiar face like Mejia would seem like a logical move in that department, even if a reunion with a catcher the Rays already seemingly moved on from last summer doesn’t represent much of an upgrade on a position that had been an issue for the team for years.  Mejia has hit .239/.284/.394 over 1098 career plate appearances in the majors, as the 28-year-old has only rarely shown any of the promise that made him a top prospect during his time in the Cleveland and San Diego farm systems.

Here’s some more from the American League….

  • The Yankees were linked to Cody Bellinger’s market early in the offseason, even if the Juan Soto trade seemingly closed the door on the chances of Bellinger in the Bronx well before Bellinger left the market for good by re-signing with the Cubs.  New York’s interest in Bellinger didn’t begin this offseason, as the club looked into signing Bellinger last winter and The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reports that the Yankees also had interest in acquiring Bellinger prior to the last trade deadline.  Bellinger was seen as a major trade chip for much of the first half until the Cubs went on a hot streak and opted against selling at the deadline, leaving suitors for several of Chicago’s veterans out of luck.  Of course, the Yankees’ own fortunes changed, as the team’s midseason slump led the front office to have a very quiet deadline, perhaps as an acknowledgement that the roster was more than one player away.
  • Evan Carter and the Rangers seemingly avoided an injury scare today when x-rays came back negative on the outfielder’s left forearm, as manager Bruce Bochy told the Dallas Morning News’ Shawn McFarland and other reporters.  Carter was hit by a Kyle Harrison during today’s Cactus League game and left the field after a visit from the team trainer, though it appears as though Carter is just day-to-day with some soreness.  One of the big favorites for AL Rookie of the Year honors heading into 2024, Carter made his MLB debut last September and immediately produced at a superstar level down the stretch and throughout the Rangers’ postseason run.
  • On paper, the pairing of Carlos Santana and Alex Kirilloff gives the Twins a platoon at first base, though manager Rocco Baldelli told The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and other reporters that “I don’t think of it as a traditional platoon in any way because one of our guys [Santana] is a switch hitter.  You end up with different options because Santana can play pretty much any day….It just gives us a lot of flexibility.”  Since Minnesota also wants to give Kirilloff at-bats and keep him healthy, the defensively superior Santana figures to get the majority of the work at first base and Kirilloff could be DH, with both players appearing in the same lineup on a regular basis.  Two wrist surgeries and a shoulder surgery have limited Kirilloff to 192 games and 706 PA over his first three big league seasons, so adding Santana on a one-year, $5.25MM deal allowed Minnesota to bolster the first base position.

Which Of The Boras Four Will Be The First To Sign?

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Spring Training games got underway yesterday. The regular season opens in less than a month. Offseason activity is far from over, though, largely on account of the so-called “Boras Four.” Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman remain unsigned.

Over the past couple weeks, a handful of teams have indirectly suggested they weren’t going to be suitors for the top free agents. High-level executives with the Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners and Twins have downplayed the chance of a free agent strike of note. Angels owner Arte Moreno has suggested payroll is coming down, while Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins indicated they could have to move money if they’re to make another significant acquisition. Others, like the Red Sox and Cubs, appear to be in a holding pattern as they try to wait out the market.

Perhaps there’s some element of public posturing from a few of those teams. If any of these players are close to an agreement, though, there hasn’t been much indication of that. Unsubstantiated reports suggested the Yankees were closing in on a deal with Snell earlier this week, but both SNY’s Andy Martino and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com confirmed there hasn’t been any recent movement on that front.

If the number of plausible suitors for any of this group has dwindled, perhaps a Spring Training injury can change the calculus. The Orioles revealed early in camp that #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL injury that’ll send him to the injured list. Mets staff ace Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder yesterday; he’ll also start the year on the shelf. President of baseball operations David Stearns shot down the idea that’d increase the urgency for the Mets to go outside the organization for rotation help.

Again, it’s possible that’s designed not to publicly concede leverage in talks with the Boras Corporation if the Mets did circle back on Snell or Montgomery. To this point, there’s no indication any of these players have meaningfully moved off asking prices from the early part of the offseason. Will that change, or will one of these teams push beyond their comfort zone and reward any of these players’ patience?

Whose market with thaw most quickly? Which of the Boras four is going to be the first to agree to terms? Will any of this group linger in free agency beyond Opening Day?

Who Will Be The First To Sign?
Blake Snell. 30.24% (4,441 votes)
Jordan Montgomery. 30.19% (4,434 votes)
Matt Chapman. 21.25% (3,121 votes)
Cody Bellinger. 18.32% (2,691 votes)
Total Votes: 14,687

 

How Many Of The Boras Four Will Sign After Opening Day?
2 42.57% (3,960 votes)
1 24.04% (2,236 votes)
3 17.23% (1,603 votes)
4 16.16% (1,503 votes)
Total Votes: 9,302

 

Pohlad: Twins “Not In The Market” For Top Remaining Free Agents

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As the baseball world collectively wonders where top-tier free agents like Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman will sign, it seems scarcely a day goes by without at least one team effectively proclaiming itself to be out of that market. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Nationals and Mariners have all seen a top baseball ops executive or ownership representative cast doubt on their ability and/or willingness to make further free agent additions of note. Add the Twins to that growing list, as owner Joe Pohlad said in an appearance with WCCO radio’s Jason DeRusha today that his club isn’t likely to make a significant late splash like they did when signing Carlos Correa a couple offseasons ago (audio link).

“…We’re not going to go out and spend $30MM on a player right now,” Pohlad plainly stated without mentioning any of Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery or Chapman by name. “The players that are out there right now that probably a bunch of fans are talking about, we are not in the market for those players.”

Minnesota never looked like a good fit for either of the position players — particularly Chapman — but the Twins are known to be looking for rotation help after seeing Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle depart as free agents. A late deal with Snell or Montgomery would’ve registered as something of a surprise, given the organization’s candid acknowledgment of plans to reduce payroll amid television uncertainty this winter, but their late entry into the Correa market a couple winters ago might’ve left some to wonder whether a similar approach could be in the offing here. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote just yesterday that he “would not discount the Twins as a wild card” for the remaining starters, but Pohlad’s comments today strongly suggest otherwise.

The Twins said early this winter that payroll would likely take a step back, and at the time, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported a rough target of $125-140MM. Minnesota currently sits just south of that number, at a projected $123.5MM per Roster Resource. It should be noted that Pohlad did not rule out any subsequent additions at all — rather just a big play at the top end of the market.

“…There are definitely other players that can have a positive impact on our team that [president of baseball operations Derek Falvey], I’m sure, is looking at,” Pohlad added.

The Twins, for instance, have reportedly expressed interest in unsigned players like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor. Signing one or even two of those names would cost considerably less than a run at Montgomery or Snell. They also watched old friend Jake Odorizzi’s recent workout for teams. Falvey and his staff have also never been ones to shy away from trades late in the offseason. Deals to acquire Pablo Lopez (Jan. 23) and Odorizzi (Feb. 17) were both completed well after the New Year in their respective offseasons. The acquisition of Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan came on the eve of Opening Day in 2022.  It remains possible that some pitching or right-handed-hitting outfield help could be acquired via that market.

Generally speaking, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Twins. They shipped stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners late last month in a deal netting right-handers Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Minnesota netted about $6.5MM in that deal as well and reinvested that money in free agent deals to sign Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson. More recently, they flipped utilityman Nick Gordon to the Marlins for lefty reliever Steven Okert.

Hollander: Mariners Additions Likely To Be “More On The Margins”

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander met with reporters this afternoon to discuss the possibility of some late-offseason acquisitions. While Hollander — who is second in the Seattle front office hierarchy behind baseball operations president Jerry Dipoto — left the door ajar for anything, he indicated the likelier course of action was to supplement towards the back of the roster.

“You never know. I think this group of players that we have — our 40-man roster as is — we may add on the margins. We may add in a more significant way, but I would expect it’s probably more on the margins than a real significant way based on where we’re at,” Hollander said (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

The comments come a couple days after Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported that the M’s have had internal discussions about Matt Chapman, one of the top four unsigned free agents. Hollander didn’t comment on Chapman — the CBA limits what team personnel are allowed to say regarding specific players — but Kramer writes that the M’s conversations about the third baseman occurred earlier in the month.

There was never any indication that Seattle is deeply involved in Chapman’s market. Kramer reports that the M’s interest has been contingent on the four-time Gold Glover lowering his asking price significantly. According to Kramer, a nine-figure deal for Chapman would be a “non-starter” for Seattle. The MLB.com report indicates the Mariners would be amenable to a shorter-term/incentive-laden contract, although that unsurprisingly hasn’t been of interest to Chapman’s camp at the Boras Corporation.

Third base looks like a relative weak point for Seattle. The Mariners dealt Eugenio Suárez to the Diamondbacks at the beginning of the offseason. They brought in Luis Urías in a small trade with the Red Sox and indirectly addressed the hot corner with last month’s Jorge Polanco deal. Installing Polanco at second base pushes lefty-hitting Josh Rojas over to third, likely in a platoon with the right-handed Urías.

Urías enters camp at a little less than full strength. The Mariners reveled today that he is battling some soreness in his throwing shoulder coming out of winter ball (via Divish). It’s not a serious issue but will keep him from throwing across the diamond in infield drills early in Spring Training.

Hollander downplayed any concern about the third base platoon. Asked if the M’s felt they’re vulnerable at the position, he replied: “I don’t really feel that way, no. … We feel really good about what the combination of Josh and Luis can do for us this year.”

That’s the expected tone for a GM to strike publicly. That said, Chapman is the only unsigned third baseman who’d be a clear upgrade on the Rojas/Urías pairing. If Seattle is simply keeping tabs on his market in case the opportunity presents itself to jump in at a lower price, they’re presumably otherwise content with their in-house options.

Seattle has also been loosely tied to the top two remaining free agents, Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger. The link to Snell has primarily been about geography rather than team need. The defending NL Cy Young winner is a Seattle native and there has been some speculation he could prefer to stay on the West Coast after three seasons in San Diego.

Despite that chatter, Kramer writes that the Mariners haven’t shown much interest in Snell at any point during the winter. The M’s traded rehabbing starter Robbie Ray and depth arm Marco Gonzales but have held onto their top five starters: George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Former top 10 pick Emerson Hancock remains on hand as a high-upside depth piece.

Bellinger was arguably a better roster fit, but Kramer reports that Seattle hasn’t considered the former MVP in either of the past two offseasons. The M’s reacquired Mitch Haniger and brought in Luke Raley from Tampa Bay as part of a reshaped corner outfield. Seattle shipped out one-time top prospect Jarred Kelenic, leaving Haniger and Raley as the presumptive starters alongside Julio Rodríguez on the outfield grass.

Seattle has generally preferred the trade route over free agency under Dipoto, particularly with regards to position players. This offseason’s two-year, $24MM deal for Mitch Garver was the first multi-year free agent contract for a hitter that Seattle has given out in Dipoto’s tenure. Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2024 player spending in the $135MM range. That’s a middle-of-the-pack figure that’s right in line with last year’s approximate $137MM Opening Day sum.

Cubs Chairman On Cody Bellinger: Some Discussions But Not A Negotiation

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Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts spoke to members of the media today, including Jesse Rogers of ESPN, and addressed the topic of free agent Cody Bellinger. “There has been some discussions but it hasn’t become a negotiation yet,” he said.

“We’re just waiting,” Ricketts said. “Waiting for whenever he and his agent are going to engage. It could be any time now or it could be a few weeks. We’ll see where it goes.” Ricketts continued: “Until they are ready to negotiate, there’s not much we can do. We just have to wait for when it gets serious before talking about what the end money amounts are.”

When asked if he had spoken with Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, Ricketts said: “I don’t talk to Scott. One of his signature moves is to go talk to the owner. When you do that, you undermine the credibility of your GM. Inserting yourself into that negotiation, I don’t think that helps. I don’t talk to him.”

Boras disagreed with this framing of the relationship, saying that the Cubs called him about Bellinger last winter. “Free agency is about recruiting players,” Boras said. “It’s the normal owner’s signature move to be involved in the efforts of recruiting players and reaching out to me so I can convey to the player the ownership of the team covets them. That is the essence of free agency and it is a custom and practice for ownership to express commitment and involvement. When Cody was a free agent last year the Cubs engaged and were very aggressive in their pursuit. And their process is no different this year. So I am not clear as to what Tom is suggesting.”

Bellinger, 28, came into the offseason as one of the most exciting players available. He suffered through some rough injury-marred seasons in 2021 and 2022, ending up non-tendered by the Dodgers, but bounced back with the Cubs on a one-year deal. He hit 26 home runs last year and slashed .307/.356/.525  for a wRC+ of 134. He also stole 20 bases and provided solid defense in center field and at first base. Given his youth and previous MVP upside, he seemed like a strong candidate for a huge deal, with him and Boras reportedly looking for $200MM or more.

But there have also been factors working against that. One is the lack of belief in his bounceback campaign, with detractors pointing to his tepid Statcast data. His hard hit rate was only in the 10th percentile of qualified league hitters, with his average exit velocity 22nd and his barrel rate 27th. It’s possible that Bellinger chose to prioritize contact over power, as his 15.6% strikeout rate last year was a career low, but the lack of impact may be a concern regardless.

There’s also the prior two seasons to consider, as Bellinger hit a dismal .193/.256/.355 in that time. He required shoulder surgery after 2020 and it’s been suggested by some, including his agent, that he was never fully healthy in that time. Perhaps that’s true but it also could be playing a factor in the fact that he’s lingering on the market in the middle of February.

There are also external factors at play. Not all clubs in the league can plausibly be expected to give out the kind of deal Bellinger and Boras are looking for. Of the possible fits, some of those clubs are working with diminished spending capacity in relation to the ongoing saga surrounding Diamond Sports Group and the general loss of TV revenue from cord cutting. That’s also had domino effects, as the Padres were one of the clubs that had to cut costs, which led to them flipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees. The Yanks were seen as one of the best landing spots for Bellinger coming into the winter but they were able to address their outfield via trade instead.

Other clubs that once seemed like viable landing spots have also become less likely. The Giants were alongside the Yankees as a strong fit back in the fall, but they signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their everyday center fielder. The Blue Jays re-signed Kevin Kiermaier. The Angels are apparently cutting payroll and also added Aaron Hicks to their outfield mix. The Mariners acquired Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger while Atlanta got Jarred Kelenic.

That’s led to speculation that Bellinger may need to pivot to a short-term deal with an eye on returning to the open market when the conditions have changed. Ideally, he will have had another strong seasons and silenced some of the doubters. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored that possibility and took a look at where Bellinger might find such a deal.

A return to the Cubs has arguably remained his best landing spot. The club addressed first base by acquiring Michael Busch but center field could still be open between Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki as the corner guys. Pete Crow-Armstrong is perhaps the club’s center fielder of the future but his first taste of the majors was a struggle and he also struck out in 29.7% of his Triple-A plate appearances last year. He’s considered a superlative defender and a threat on the bases, so he doesn’t need to hit a ton to be a viable regular, but there’s an argument to bringing back Bellinger and letting PCA earn his way into playing time. The club also doesn’t have a strict designated hitter so it’s theoretically possible for each of Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in the same lineup.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the Cubs will actually pull the trigger on a deal, but they should have the money to do it. “We’re right there at CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) levels,” Ricketts said today. “It’s kind of our natural place for us. That should be enough to win our division and be consistent every year.”

Roster Resource pegs the club’s CBT number at $208MM, almost $30MM below this year’s base threshold of $237MM. Based on the tenor of the comments from Ricketts, it seems they prefer to stay under that line. That still gives them the ability to make a notable deal, such as one for Bellinger, but the seeming low level of communication between the two sides suggests there hasn’t been too much urgency towards going down that path. It would also likely mean committing to a long-term deal, as any short-term discussions would surely lead to a higher AAV that would push them over the tax line, something Ricketts seemingly prefers not to do. Whether that’s brinkmanship or a genuine reflection of the club’s position remains to be seen, with Opening Day now just over a month away.

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