Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Dylan Carlson
The Cardinals have received trade inquiries on switch-hitting outfielder Dylan Carlson from multiple clubs, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, with the Blue Jays being identified as one of them.
It would appear to be a fairly logical pairing, since the Cardinals are hoping to add multiple starting pitchers and are reportedly willing to considering trading position players in order to do so, with the Yankees having interest in outfielder Alec Burleson and utility player Brendan Donovan. The Jays, meanwhile, are hoping to add multiple position players this winter. The Red Birds and Blue Birds have also been fairly regular trade partners. Last year, they lined up on three separate deals, with the Jays acquiring Génesis Cabrera, Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong. They also made four other deals from 2017 to 2021.
Trading Carlson would be a sell-low move for the Cardinals at this point, given the results of the past two years. They used the 33rd overall pick to draft him in the 2016 draft and he became one of the club’s top prospects while in the minors, generally considered a player who was good at everything but without a standout tool, showing some good form at the plate, in the field and on the bases.
He got a brief debut in the shortened 2020 season but seemed to break out in 2021. Getting into 149 contests in that season, he walked at a solid 9.2% clip and hit 18 home runs. His .266/.343/.437 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 111, indicating he was 11% better than the league average hitter. He split his time between all three outfield positions and was considered around average on defense, leading to a tally of 2.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs.
In 2022, there were mixed results. On the positive side, he lowered his strikeout rate from 24.6% to 19.3% while keeping his walk rate steady and his defensive grades were slightly better. But he made multiple trips to the injured list, getting sidelined by a left hamstring strain and a left thumb sprain. He was limited to 128 games and just eight home runs but still produced 2.5 fWAR thanks to his improved defense.
But 2023 was unquestionably a disappointing campaign. He suffered an ankle sprain in May and went on the injured list for almost a month. Though he returned in June, the issue didn’t go away and he eventually required surgery later in the year. While on the field, he hit just .219/.318/.333 for a wRC+ of 84, but it’s fair to speculate about the ankle causing some of those results.
Carlson still has three years of club control left, qualifying for arbitration for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a salary of $1.8MM for 2024, with two further arb years slated to follow. Moving on from a former first-round pick while he’s still young and affordable would likely be tough for the Cards, especially with his value somewhat weakened by the ankle surgery. But their desire for pitching and their position player surplus may put it on the table.
Even if Carlson were removed, the club would still have Burleson, Donovan, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Tommy Edman and Richie Palacios competing for outfield jobs, with Juan Yepez, Moises Gomez and Michael Siani also on the roster. Some of those players are also capable of playing on the infield, but the club has Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn potentially lined up on the dirt. That may put them in a position to move one or more of these players while still fielding a strong lineup.
The Blue Jays, as mentioned, are looking to acquire some position players this winter. Carlson could perhaps bolster the Toronto outfield, which just lost Kevin Kiermaier to free agency. But whether they can provide the starting pitching that is coveted in St. Louis is an interesting question.
The Jays have four rotation spots filled by Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi but a question mark for the fifth. The Cards would likely have varying degrees of interest in someone from that group, but the Jays might not want to open a second question mark in their rotation. Speculatively speaking, Alek Manoah could be an interesting fit for these talks, since he’s also a former top prospect coming off a down year.
He posted a 5.87 ERA in 2023 while getting optioned to the minors multiple times as his relationship with the club appeared to sour. He is still a year away from qualifying for arbitration but his circumstances are vaguely analogous to Carlson since both are still affordable and controllable but coming off frustration campaigns, albeit for different reasons. Toronto’s GM Ross Atkins said yesterday that Manoah should have the inside track on a rotation job, but the club also has other options like Mitch White, Bowden Francis and prospect Ricky Tiedemann, while they could also look to bolster that group in free agency.
That’s pure speculation and the clubs are likely discussing various scenarios, with the Cards fielding plenty of calls from clubs around the league. Carlson received interest from the Yankees and Orioles last year and it stands to reason those clubs would likely be interested again. This winter’s free agent class is generally considered weak on the position player side, which could position the Cards to use their many talented players to improve their pitching staff as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 campaign.
MLBTR Poll: Cardinals’ Outfield Logjam
The Cardinals have made clear their intention to pursue plenty of pitching help as they attempt to return to contention in 2024. While the deep class of pitchers set to be available provides the club with ample opportunities to dip into free agency, it’s no secret that the Cardinals have an excess of outfield talent. Each of Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O’Neill play the outfield exclusively for St. Louis, while multi-positional options Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman saw plenty of time in the outfield as well during the 2023 campaign.
That led the Cardinals to field trade offers on their glut of outfield talent at the trade deadline, though none of their position players ultimately ended up moving besides pending free agent shortstop Paul DeJong. Those talks could begin anew this coming offseason, allowing the Cardinals to explore the trade market for potential pitching additions. Walker and Nootbaar were both regarded as essentially untouchable at the deadline, and it seems likely that they’ll be similarly protected from trade talks this offseason. That being said, each of Carlson, O’Neill, Edman, and Donovan found their names in the rumor mill this past season. Let’s take a look at each of them:
Dylan Carlson (0.2 fWAR in 2023)
Carlson, who celebrated his 25th birthday earlier this week, is coming off a major down season in 2023 where he slashed just .219/.318/.333 in 255 plate appearances. Despite those brutal numbers, Carlson reportedly received interest from multiple clubs at the trade deadline, including the Yankees and Orioles. As a young switch-hitter who was once a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport and is under team control through the 2026 campaign, Carlson could once again be a sought-after change of scenery candidate. That being said, his value is likely at an all time low after undergoing ankle surgery in September (though he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training) and posting the worst offensive season of his career in 2023. Given Carlson’s remaining team control, it’s possible the Cardinals would be better off holding onto their former top prospect in hopes he can rebound in 2024 and improve his stock. On the other hand, another difficult season for Carlson in 2024 could squander whatever remaining interest clubs have in prying him away from St. Louis.
Tyler O’Neill (0.8 fWAR in 2023)
Much like Carlson, O’Neill is also coming off something of a down season, having slashed just .231/.312/.403 in 266 trips to the plate in 2023. As uninspiring as those numbers may be, O’Neill is just two seasons removed from a sensational 2021 campaign that saw him slash .286/.352/.560 with a 143 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in 138 games. What’s more, O’Neill posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2023, with a 25.2% strikeout rate. If O’Neill can find a way to balance the power he flashed in 2021 with his improved plate discipline in 2023, he could be an impactful offensive player for just about any club. That being said, with just one year of team control remaining before O’Neill hits free agency, he would likely generate the smallest return package of any of the players listed here. With contention in 2024 uncertain, it’s easy to make the argument that the Cardinals would be wise to deal O’Neill while they still can, though it’s also fair to wonder if they’d be selling too low on a player with an exciting offensive ceiling.
Brendan Donovan (2.1 fWAR in 2023)
Donovan, 26, made good on a strong rookie campaign during his sophomore season, slashing .284/.365/.422 while flashing improved power numbers in 371 trips to the plate. Donovan underwent season-ending surgery on the day of the trade deadline this year after being relegated to DH-only duties for much of the season thanks to a flexor tendon injury. Fortunately, Donovan is expected to be ready Spring Training in 2024 and, when healthy, is a premiere utility option who would be of interest to virtually any club. To this point in his career, Donovan has logged time at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Between his versatility, solid bat, and the fact that he’s not yet even eligible for arbitration, Donovan is easily the most attractive trade candidate on this list who would deliver the strongest return, though it would be a major loss for the Cardinals offense if the club parted with a player of Donovan’s caliber.
Tommy Edman (2.3 fWAR in 2023)
Perhaps the most surprising candidate to appear on this list, Edman came into the 2023 campaign having spent the overwhelming majority of his career on the infield dirt as a shortstop and second baseman. That changed this season, however, as Edman split his time between second base, shortstop, and center field, taking his role in center quite well. While Edman slashed just .248/.307/.399 (92 wRC+) in 137 games with the club this year, his quality defense at three up the middle positions and roughly league average switch-hitting bat would make him an attractive trade candidate for virtually any team. Edman is controlled through the 2025 campaign, giving him more value on the trade market than a rental bat like O’Neill even as he doesn’t come with the same extensive team control as Carlson or Donovan.
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With the Cardinals looking to completely revamp their pitching staff in 2023, it would be a shock if the club didn’t at least look into dealing from its surplus of outfield depth while they attempt to return to contention following a 91-loss season. If they do move on from one of the aforementioned players, which should they look to deal? O’Neill or Carlson departing likely wouldn’t set the 2024 club back very much on offense, though they presumably wouldn’t garner a very significant return as the club looks to add big league-ready pitching options. On the other hand, the club would be far more likely to land a bona fide rotation-caliber arm if they dealt Donovan or Edman, but the 2024 team’s positional group would take a far more significant step back in losing either player’s versatility.
(poll link for app users)
Which Outfielder Should The Cardinals Move?
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Tyler O'Neill 58% (3,666)
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Dylan Carlson 25% (1,571)
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Tommy Edman 10% (627)
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Brendan Donovan 7% (463)
Total votes: 6,327
Cardinals Select Irving Lopez
The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves today, recalling outfielder Michael Siani and selecting the contract of infielder Irving Lopez. In corresponding moves, third baseman Nolan Arenado was placed on the 10-day injured list due to back spasms. Catcher Willson Contreras also landed on the 10-day injured list due to left wrist tendinitis, a move that was reported on yesterday. To open a 40-man roster spot for Lopez, outfielder Dylan Carlson was transferred to the 60-day injured list.
The Cards are 67-86, putting them in last place in the Central. There’s little incentive for veterans like Contreras or Arenado to play through nagging injuries at this point, so they will get an early start on the offseason by sitting out the last handful of games. It was reported last week that Carlson would require ankle surgery, making his transfer to the 60-day injured list unsurprising.
As those players rest, it will open an opportunity for Lopez to make his major league debut. The 28-year-old was a 19th-round pick of the Cards in the 2017 draft. He has split this year between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .260/.368/.420 in his 346 plate appearances with a 12.4% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout rate.
He’ll give manager Oli Marmol a multi-positional option for the final games of the schedule. He has played all four infield positions this year, as well as the outfield corners and even made an appearance on the mound.
Dylan Carlson To Undergo Ankle Surgery
Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson will undergo surgery on his injured left ankle, skipper Oli Marmol told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). The procedure comes with a recovery time between two and three months. If all goes as anticipated, he should be ready for Spring Training.
It’s an expected development. Carlson has been considering a surgical procedure at least dating back to the middle of August, when he landed on the injured list for the second time. He initially hurt his ankle in May, suffering a sprain that took him out of action for a month. He has also been dealing with bone spurs, Goold notes. Both issues will be addressed when he goes under the knife.
Carlson had a middling age-24 season. He tallied 255 plate appearances, hitting .219/.318/.333 with only five home runs. It was his worst offensive output since an abbreviated rookie showing back in 2020. While he has never broken through as the impact hitter some expected when he was a top prospect, Carlson posted a slightly above-average .253/.331/.412 slash in over 1100 trips to the dish from 2021-22.
He paired those decent offensive numbers with strong ratings for his glove in center field. Just over a year ago, Carlson still seemed to be a franchise building block. He was jumped by Lars Nootbaar late last summer, while the Cards turned to Jordan Walker and Tyler O’Neill as their primary corner outfield tandem. That pushed Carlson into fourth outfield duty even when healthy.
As a result, opposing teams inquired about his availability at the trade deadline. No deal came together and Carlson ended up going back on the IL a couple weeks thereafter. The ankle surgery complicates his status headed into the winter, but he’ll surely be on the radar of clubs seeking outfield help. Carlson is headed into his first year of arbitration eligibility. He’ll go through that process three times and won’t qualify for free agency until after the 2026 campaign.
Even if he just recaptures his 2021-22 form, he’d profile as a decent everyday center fielder. There are presumably some clubs that feel he can yet reach a higher ceiling in his mid-20s based on his prospect potential. While Carlson’s trade appeal is probably at its lowest point since he reached the major leagues, the St. Louis front office will still receive a number of calls.
The Cardinals mostly dealt away short-term players at the most recent deadline. They didn’t make any notable subtractions from their collection of controllable position players. Carlson again figures to be one of their likeliest trade candidates as they look for ways to add stability to the rotation in hopes of putting this disappointing season behind them.
Dylan Carlson Considering Season-Ending Ankle Surgery
Back in mid-May, Dylan Carlson suffered a sprained ankle that resulted in over three weeks on the injured list. The sprain caused enough damage that it “was something that we realized might need some more [surgical] attention down the road, so we’re taking a look at it again,” Carlson told MLB.com’s John Denton, and both the outfielder and the Cardinals are waiting on the results of some tests before deciding whether or not to go ahead with the arthroscopic surgery in short order.
Such a procedure would officially end Carlson’s 2023 season, though it is already possible he might not play again due to an oblique strain. Carlson was placed on the 10-day IL last week with what he revealed was a Grade 2 strain, detailing how he felt some mild discomfort after a swing during a game against the Rays, and then seemingly aggravated the oblique problem after sneezing a day later.
“It’s been that kind of year,” Carlson summarized, as his fourth Major League season might end with an underwhelming slash line of .219/.318/.333 over 255 plate appearances. It is fair to point to the lingering ankle problem as a reason for this performance, though Carlson also hit only .236/.316/.380 over 488 PA in 2022. This lack of production has dimmed the star of the former top-20 prospect, who finished third in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2021 and seemed to be a future cornerstone for St. Louis.
Instead, Carlson is one of many Cardinals players at something of a crossroads as the team tries to figure out its next steps after a thoroughly disappointing 2023 campaign. St. Louis is well on its way to only its second losing season of the 21st century, and with a rotation overhaul looking like the top offseason priority, the Cards might well look to acquire pitching by trading from its outfield depth.
Despite his tough season, Carlson drew plenty of attention prior to the trade deadline, as rival teams might think the 24-year-old could blossom with a change of scenery. Since clubs will obviously want to make sure Carlson is healthy before swinging a deal, whether Carlson undergoes the ankle surgery now or after the season could be a slight factor in his trade candidacy, though an arthroscopic procedure probably shouldn’t impact the outfielder’s readiness for Spring Training.
IL Placements: Carlson, Almonte, Mlodzinski, Danner
Dylan Carlson will miss at least the next “couple weeks” due to a left oblique strain, the Cardinals outfielder told MLB.com and other media today. St. Louis placed Carlson on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to August 10) and called up Luken Baker as the roster replacement, giving Carlson some proper time off after he first suffered the injury on Wednesday. Given the lingering nature of some oblique injuries and the fact that the Cardinals are out of contention, it isn’t out of the question that Carlson might have already played his last game of the 2023 season….or even his last game in a St. Louis uniform.
It looked like Carlson was a future cornerstone following his impressive 2021 rookie campaign, but he has followed up that seeming breakout year with pair of injury-marred, lackluster seasons. Carlson has hit only .230/.316/.364 over 743 plate appearances since Opening Day 2022, and both his health issues and the lack of production have reduced his playing time in the Cardinals outfield. While Carlson is arbitration-controlled through 2026 and was the subject of several trade rumors prior to the deadline, his subpar play has certainly lowered his trade value, so it remains to be seen if the Cardinals will sell low on him this winter as they look to both solve their outfield surplus and figure out how to get the team more broadly back on track after their disastrous year.
Catching up on other IL placements from Saturday…
- The Dodgers placed right-hander Yency Almonte on the 15-day IL and called up southpaw Victor Gonzalez. Almonte suffered a right knee sprain that forced him to make an early exit from Friday’s game, as he told reporters (including NBC Los Angeles’ Michael J. Duarte) that the injury was caused when his cleat got stuck on the mound. Almonte’s struggles at limiting walks have resulted in a 5.06 ERA over 48 relief innings, though he had somewhat stabilized after a tough beginning to the season — a 9.00 ERA over his first 18 innings gave way to a 2.70 ERA over his last 30 frames of work.
- The Pirates placed Carmen Mlodzinski on the 15-day IL (retroactive to August 10) due to right elbow soreness, while calling up right-hander Osvaldo Bido from Triple-A. Mlodzinski made his MLB debut on June 16 and has an excellent 2.28 ERA over his first 23 2/3 innings in the Show. The righty’s 4.74 SIERA is less inspiring, as Mlodzinski has thrived despite subpar strikeout (20.8%) and walk (12.9%) rates.
- The Blue Jays placed right-hander Hagen Danner on the 15-day IL due to a left oblique strain, and Nate Pearson was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move. Danner made his MLB debut on Friday and retired the first batter he faced, yet then had to leave the game after getting injured while facing the second batter of his relief appearance. The 24-year-old Danner had earned a look in the majors after posting a 3.81 ERA over 28 1/3 Triple-A innings this season, but it will be at least 15 days before he can get back onto the mound.
Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Approach
With the Yankees in last place in the AL East despite a decent 55-51 record, their path forward remains somewhat murky with less than four hours to go before the trade deadline. Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates that the club could look to both buy and sell, searching for long-term controllable pieces in areas of need while fielding offers on the pending free agents on their roster.
Several of the club’s pending free agents, including Luis Severino and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, have had difficult seasons in 2023, but could nonetheless draw interest as low-cost, depth additions from other clubs. Lefty Wandy Peralta, who has a 2.29 ERA in 47 appearances out of New York’s bullpen this year, and center fielder Harrison Bader have both fared better in their walk years, with Bader in particular drawing interest per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Sherman more specifically notes that the Yankees and Phillies have discussed Bader, though there is “limited traction” on a deal between the sides.
Sherman adds that the Yankees have discussed closer Clay Holmes in trade talks, despite Holmes being controllable through the 2024 campaign. That being said, Sherman noted that the asking price for Holmes is exorbitant, rendering a deal regarding the club’s closer unlikely. The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty adds to that doubt, noting that it’s “highly unlikely” the club parts with either Holmes or fellow leverage reliever Michael King.
As far as buying goes, the club has been frequently connected to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline, and those connections haven’t stopped today. Kuty, Sherman, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand have are among those who have linked the Yankees and Carlson recently. That being said, Heyman cautions that the Cardinals are unlikely to deal Carlson unless they get a young MLB starter in return. That’s a price the Yankees could pay if they so chose, with youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito currently occupying spots in the club’s starting rotation.
As Feinsand notes, that Carlson’s ability to play quality defense in center field could be of particular value given Bader’s status as a pending free agent. Carlson could take over for Bader in center immediately in the event of a trade before the deadline, or play left field for the remainder of the 2023 campaign and shift over to center in the event Bader departs via free agency this offseason.
Orioles, Cardinals Have Discussed Dylan Carlson
The Cardinals’ sell-off is in full swing, with Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton already out the door. Prior to trading Montgomery and Stratton to the Rangers, the Cardinals spoke to the Orioles about the left-hander, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. He adds that the O’s have also talked to the Cardinals about switch-hitting center fielder Dylan Carlson.
Goold suggests that Carlson hasn’t necessarily been a focal point in talks but rather a value add in addition to the starters they’ve marketed. Even if Carlson were viewed as a standalone target for Baltimore, there’d be some sense to it. The O’s are bursting with young talent, but they’re currently without center fielder Cedric Mullins due to a groin strain. Aaron Hicks, who’s hit well since being released by the Yankees and signing in Baltimore, is also on the injured list at the moment (hamstring strain). The O’s have gotten strong production from corner outfielders Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, but top outfield prospect Colton Cowser has struggled immensely in his first 59 plate appearances since being recalled.
Carlson, unlike the other three players the Cardinals have traded in the past 24 hours, is not a free agent at season’s end. He has three years of club control remaining beyond the current season. A former top prospect himself, the 24-year-old’s standing in St. Louis has seemingly deteriorated as he’s produced at a roughly league-average level since turning in a strong 2021 campaign.
The O’s don’t necessarily need a long-term fix in center field, as Mullins is also under team control for multiple years beyond the current season (through 2025). However, even when Mullins returns, there’d theoretically be room for both him and Carlson in the lineup. Anthony Santander could see more time at designated hitter, perhaps cutting into the playing time of struggling Ryan Mountcastle (though Mountcastle’s offense has ticked up over the past couple weeks). A speculative outfield of Hays, Mullins and Carlson would be defensively superior to the current alignment. Adding Carlson to the mix would also open further avenues for offseason deals. Santander is only controlled through the 2024 season and is due a raise on his $7.4MM salary, for instance.
The Cardinals, notably, are virtually certain to trade 27-year-old right-hander Jack Flaherty before Tuesday’s deadline. If Baltimore’s interest in the Cardinals’ pitchers extended beyond Montgomery, then it stands to reason that a deal surrounding Flaherty and Carlson could still be discussed, though the extent of the Orioles’ potential interest in Flaherty isn’t known. The right-hander is three years younger than his now-former teammate, Montgomery, but is also having a weaker season. Flaherty’s ERA is a full run higher, and he’s sporting inferior strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates.
Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield
The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.
Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.
Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.
That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”
Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.
While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.
Cardinals Expect To Move DeJong, Several Pitchers; O’Neill Unlikely To Be Traded
The Cardinals’ logjam in the outfield has been well-documented by now, but one path to alleviating that situation apparently isn’t under consideration at this time; Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the Cardinals plan to hold onto O’Neill at this year’s deadline.
Elsewhere on the roster, the Cards have made clear to other clubs that they expect to trade starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty as well as shortstop Paul DeJong, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Passan adds Jordan Hicks as a possible trade candidate, and it’s only natural that righty Chris Stratton — another potential free agent — would also be on the block.
Moving the 28-year-old O’Neill at this stage would unequivocally be selling low. The two-time Gold Glove winner and eighth-place finisher in 2021 NL MVP voting has played in just 130 games since Opening Day 2022, batting a paltry (by his standards) .229/.309/.381 in 502 plate appearances along the way. It’s a far cry from O’Neill’s mammoth .286/.352/.560 batting line and 34 homers in 2021.
The Cards control O’Neill through the 2024 season, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Woo quotes both O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol in a piece that Cards fans, in particular, will want to read. Broadly speaking, the organization believes an emphasis on routine and collaborative communication can help O’Neill remain on the field more regularly (though that makes the decision to buck his routine by placing him in center field early in the season seem particularly curious).
O’Neill is one of several outfielders vying for playing time in St. Louis. Lars Nootbaar has become entrenched in center field, and top prospect Jordan Walker is currently patrolling right field. O’Neill’s return pushed former top prospect Dylan Carlson to a bench role, and there’s been ample reporting and speculation on the possibility of a Carlson trade looming on the horizon. First baseman/outfielder and utilitymen extraordinaire Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman also factor into the outfield mix — at times being pushed there by Nolan Gorman‘s presence at second base.
The Cards would also be selling low on Carlson in many ways, though the 24-year-old switch-hitter’s remaining three seasons of club control beyond the current year give him more appeal than O’Neill’s one remaining year. Carlson’s ability to play all three outfield spots — center field, in particular — at a high level could also increase the chances of landing direly needed controllable pitching in a trade. O’Neill certainly isn’t likely to command that type of return on the heels of two injury-plagued seasons; he only just returned from a 60-day IL stint thanks to a back strain.
The likely trades of Montgomery and Flaherty have been discussed ad nauseum by now. Both are free agents at season’s end. Montgomery is the more valuable arm at present, touting a 3.37 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate in 115 innings. He’d be a veritable lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals figure to insist on greater value than a 2024 compensatory pick in return. He’s being $10.01MM in 2023.
Flaherty looked like a burgeoning ace in 2019 but has seen several recent seasons ruined by injury. He’s been healthy in ’23, pitching 104 2/3 innings of 4.49 ERA ball. His 22.2% strikeout rate is roughly average, but his 11.3% walk rate is a glaring red flag. He’s three years younger than Montgomery and earning roughly half the salary ($5.4MM) in 2023, however.
DeJong’s status as a likely trade target registers as a clear bonus for the Cards. Entering the season, he didn’t even appear like a lock to make the roster, having slashed just .182/.269/.352 in 190 games from 2021-22. But DeJong has enjoyed a rebound season in ’23, hitting .237/.304/.424 (101 wRC+) with his typical brand of plus defense. With about $3.29MM remaining on his contract (plus a $2MM buyout on next year’s $12.5MM option), DeJong now seems affordable and productive enough to be a viable trade candidate — particularly if the Cardinals help out financially in any sense. DeJong’s bat has cooled after a torrid start, but his overall batting line is about league average, he’s shown some power and he’s played good defense.
Both Hicks and Stratton are natural trade candidates, too. Hicks is likely more appealing and costlier to acquire, given his youth and triple-digit heater. The 26-year-old is averaging better than 100 mph on his sinker and has a 1.88 ERA dating back to early May, punching out batters at a gaudy 31.4% of his hitters with an 8.5% walk rate and mammoth 66.7% grounder rate. Stratton, 33 next month, has a 4.38 ERA with better peripheral marks (27% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, 3.01 FIP, 3.37 SIERA).
In any trade, St. Louis is eyeing near-MLB-ready pitching, Passan adds. That, again, is hardly a surprise and has long been speculated upon, given the team’s lack of rotation clarity beyond the current season. Both Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents. Adam Wainwright is retiring. Steven Matz and Matthew Liberatore have struggled.
Many of the names in question wouldn’t fetch a close-to-the-Majors arm in a straight-up swap, but someone like DeJong or Stratton could potentially be packaged with Flaherty or Hicks to improve the Cards’ return. Either Montgomery or certainly Carlson on his own could feasibly fetch immediate but unproven pitching help — Montgomery’s status as a rental notwithstanding. For instance, the Cards themselves traded away a big league-ready arm last summer when they shipped Johan Oviedo to the division-rival Pirates in order to acquire Stratton and Jose Quintana, who was then a rental player. Oviedo has struggled in July but notched a 4.06 ERA through his first 16 starts and is controllable through the 2027 season.