Farhan Zaidi

After winning 107 games in 2021, the Giants have taken a big step backwards, with only a 63-68 record this season.  Pretty much everything clicked during that dream season, but injuries and under-performance have marred San Francisco’s efforts this year, with the bullpen and much of the lineup being particularly inconsistent.

As a result, some notable changes could be in store for the 2023 club.  In an interview on The Front Office on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (partial audio clip), Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said that “everything is on the table for us” this offseason, “including going out and being aggressive at the top end of the free agent market.”

Zaidi has yet to make any true big-ticket signings since taking over the front office in November 2018, preferring shorter-term deals with both free agents or in-house players.  This isn’t to say that the Giants have been necessarily adverse to spending in general, considering that the club’s current payroll is around $162.3MM (as per Roster Resource).  However, even that total is below the team’s spending levels prior to Zaidi’s tenure, as payroll topped the $200MM mark in 2018 before Zaidi was hired.

Of course, that payroll was inflated by several large contracts given to veteran players and stalwarts of the Giants’ three World Series championships, and by 2018, most of those players were no longer productive.  Rather than entirely rebuild, Zaidi took a more measured approach to moving some but not all of those larger deals, and this strategy was a big part of the Giants’ sudden success in 2021.  Such underperforming veterans as Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, and Johnny Cueto were generally healthier and much more productive on the field, with the revamped coaching staff helping these players find their old form.

Posey retired, while Cueto wasn’t re-signed and instead landed with the White Sox.  Crawford was given a contract extension before the 2021 season was even over, and Belt was also retained when he accepted San Francisco’s one-year qualifying offer.  As it turned out, it seems like the Giants may have simply waited a year too long with these players, as Crawford and Belt have struggled, and Longoria has hit well when healthy but has also played only 69 games.

“We had a bunch of veteran players when I came in whose contracts were going to be up last offseason and this coming offseason,” Zaidi said, describing this period “as a time of big transition for our organization.”  Considering how well the Giants played in 2021, “it made sense for us to not be too aggressive with the transition and retrench a little bit with the guys who had had that successful season for us.”

With things not working out in 2022, Zaidi finally seems ready to turn the page on this version of the Giants roster.  Belt, Joc Pederson, and Wilmer Flores are all free agents, while Longoria’s $13MM club option will likely instead be bought out for $5MM (and, Longoria might retire altogether at season’s end).  Zaidi said earlier this week that the Giants have already talked to Pederson about an extension, and Flores has still been productive enough that he could be considered for another deal at a relatively low cost.

How many veterans are kept, however, will tie into Zaidi’s plan for a younger roster.  As he noted in the Front Office interview, “we find ourselves in a position this offseason where we want to get more athletic.  We want to have a roster that has a better chance of staying healthy, which usually means getting a little bit younger.”

This strategy will also impact the Giants’ free agent plans.  Health is naturally always a concern for any team in deciding whether or not to sign a free agent, especially since most players are generally in their late 20’s or early 30’s by the time they earn enough service time to reach the open market.  Looking at some of the top free agents available this winter, pretty much everyone has some level of injury history, though if youth is more of a factor for San Francisco, players like Carlos Correa (who turns 28 this month) or Trea Turner (who turns 30 in June) could be prioritized.  Aaron Judge will be 31 in April, but the Bay Area native has been speculated as a natural target for his old hometown team.

Besides free agents, the Giants could also obviously look to add players in trades, though getting younger and more athletic types will naturally come at a higher cost in terms of trade return.  Since the Giants have only around $89MM on the books for 2023, Zaidi could perhaps look to lower the prospect cost by taking on a larger contract, and using the Giants’ financial flexibility in another way than just spending on a free agent.

Giants’ president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently appeared on The TK Show, the podcast of The Athletic’s Tim Kawakami, and discussed a wide variety of topics pertaining to the past and the future of the club.

Broadly speaking, there’s a wide variety of paths for the Giants to take this winter. They have a lot of contracts coming off the books when free agency begins, which means they will have money to spend but also holes to fill. They could use that money to assemble a team that’s very similar to the 107-win 2021 squad, go with a completely different look, or somewhere in between. Regardless of how it plays out, Zaidi believes their success this season should help make them an attractive destination for potential signees. “We’re just going to keep trying to get better and better and better and at some point you reach the tipping point where you look up and you’re at the top of the standings, and that situation can perpetuate itself by reputation, a lot of free agents want to play for you, and you can draft off of that success if you just kind of keep grinding and trying to make the team better.”

It certainly stands to reason that free agents would be intrigued, especially given that the Giants have seemingly found a way to maximize the talents of veterans they’ve brought on in recent years, such as Darin Ruf, Anthony DeSclafani, Jake McGee and Alex Wood, who are all over 30 years old and did some of the best work of their careers in 2021. And there’s also Giants’ mainstays like Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey, who are all 33 or older and had excellent seasons.

Zaidi elaborated on that point by giving some insight into how players approach free agency and how it’s evolved in recent years. He says that money and geography used to be the primary factors, but now, “I think guys are more aware of going somewhere they feel like there’s an infrastructure and a support system that can help them thrive from a performance standpoint. You get a lot more questions from free agents on what facilities do you have, can I speak to your pitching coach or hitting coach? And that’s a way bigger part of the recruiting process. We’ve been really focused on that pitch over the last couple of years.”

Zaidi had already discussed the rotation situation last week, which is surely going to be a big part of the Giants’ offseason as Wood, DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto are all heading into free agency. Kawakami asked him about taking a similar approach to what they’ve done previously, giving short-term deals to talented pitchers with question marks on their records. “You look at the list of free agents and there are some names on that list who have had a lot of success in the past and maybe dealt with injuries this year or underperformed for whatever reason,” Zaidi said. “I think when you’ve got to fill out four spots in your rotation, you’re certainly going to look at that segment of the market.” The team has a $22MM club option on Cueto, but the fact that Zaidi admits they will be looking to fill four rotation spots seems to leave no doubt that they will opt for the $5MM buyout instead.

But those short-term deals aren’t the only thing on the table. “I would be surprised if we didn’t wind up doing at least one multi-year deal for a starting pitcher,” Zaidi added. “Certainly all of our guys who are free agents are going to be looking for multi-year deals based on the seasons they had. We have interest in bringing all of those guys back.”

In terms of payroll, the club should have lots of flexibility for 2022 and beyond. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s opening day payroll was just under $150MM this year, the lowest since 2014, when prorating the 2020 number. According to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, they only have about $65MM allocated for 2022, when factoring in arbitration estimates. Assuming the club picks up its options on Buster Posey, Wilmer Flores and Jose Alvarez, that number would jump up to the $90MM range. Even if payroll stays steady for 2022, that seemingly gives Zaidi and his team $60MM to throw around this offseason. For 2023, there’s only $33MM on the books so far, with Crawford and Tommy La Stella the only guaranteed contracts. With that level of wiggle room, the club could surely find any number of ways to build a rotation around breakout star Logan Webb, for both the short and long term.

On the position player side of things, Zaidi seems to be less worried about their situation in that department. Kawakami quotes Zaidi from a press conference last week as saying, “We’re deep on the position-player side. We have a number of guys who are platoon guys, every-day guys, we have a lot of at-bats that are accounted for. And we’ve got guys like Thairo Estrada (and) Steven Duggar that we’d like to see get better opportunities. You’ve got a layer of prospects that are even closer to being big-league ready, guys like (Heliot) Ramos and Joey Bart. So we at least have some options on the position-player side. Where all those guys on the position-player side, not just Kris but Brandon Belt, Donovan Solano, these guys fit our team, we’d like to have them back, but we have some options on that side.”

Solano has had a nice run with the Giants but is about to turn 34, whereas Estrada is about to turn 26 and had a similarly-productive season, making it fairly reasonable to see that bringing Solano back isn’t the highest priority. Belt had a tremendous season at the plate but also comes with injury concerns. The club largely turned to a productive Wilmer Flores/Darin Ruf platoon when Belt was out, which they could do again in 2022. (Ruf can be retained via arbitration, Flores by a $3.5MM club option.) Bryant is a tremendous hitter but will be command a huge financial commitment this winter and is an imperfect fit on the Giants’ roster. Third baseman Evan Longoria is still under contract for one more year, at just under $20MM, meaning Bryant would likely be pushed into more outfield time, where his defensive numbers aren’t as good. The club also has a bevy of outfield options already in the fold, such as Duggar, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson and Austin Slater. Prospect Heliot Ramos, whom Zaidi mentioned, finished his season at Triple-A and will need to be added to the 40-man roster next month in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, meaning he should be in the mix for an opportunity soon. Zaidi’s apparent lack of urgency around the position players seems to hold up to scrutiny. The option of a universal DH for 2022 would open things up somewhat, but that’s not guaranteed to happen.

All in all, it should be a fascinating offseason for the club. The rival Dodgers are in a similar situation, with lots of players reaching free agency, such as Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor and Kenley Jansen. Both clubs will surely be frequently connected to free agents in rumors this offseason, meaning 2021’s fierce competition for the NL West division crown figures to continue right through the winter.