White Sox GM Discusses Rotation, Right Field
White Sox general manager Chris Getz spoke with reporters today and discussed some of the club’s plans for the rest of the offseason and the upcoming campaign, with Scott Merkin of MLB.com and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times among those to relay the information. Getz acknowledged that Dylan Cease has received plenty of interest from other clubs but said that the Sox won’t trade him unless they feel the deal makes the club better. Elsewhere in the rotation, he said that Garrett Crochet will come into the season preparing to be a starter and that Chris Flexen is expected to be a starter as well. In terms of the lineup, he said that they don’t have an established starting right fielder as of right now and are open to external additions.
Cease, 28, has posted excellent results over the past three years and has been incredibly popular on the trade market in recent months. Teams such as the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Mets, Braves and Reds have all been connected to his market this winter. Some of those clubs have since pivoted to other moves but the rumors around the righty have continued to swirl, with many in the industry still expecting a trade before the start of the season. But from the point of view of the Sox, they don’t feel they have to make a deal. “We’ve had [trade] conversations about Dylan [Cease] but we’re not going to move someone unless there’s a benefit,” Getz said.
The righty is still under club control for two years, so the Sox don’t have to move him immediately if they don’t want to. But his trade value won’t get any higher at this point, making it sensible for them to take the best offer they can get at the moment. By the time the trade deadline rolls around, they will only be marketing a year and a half of his services and the number of suitors might dwindle if some interested clubs fall out of contention. There’s also the ever-present risk of an injury sapping Cease of his trade value.
It was reported back in December that the Sox were being patient with the market, seeing if the interest in Cease picked up after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed and the clubs that missed on him pivoted. Yamamoto has now signed with the Dodgers, leaving Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery as the top free agents available but Cease one of the top trade candidates. Pitchers like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Jesús Luzardo have also been in trade rumors but it’s unclear how open their respective clubs are to offers.
In the case of Cease, the Sox have reportedly been setting a high asking price, which is perhaps why no deal has been consummated as of yet. It was reported last month that the Sox asked the Reds for four of their top prospects, which seemed to put an end to the discussions. The Reds agreed to terms with free agent Frankie Montas on a deal about a week after that report. Whether the Sox will back down from that apparent lofty asking price, or some other club will bite the bullet and meet it, remains to be seen.
The high level of interest and the asking price are both reflections of his immense talent. Over the past three campaigns, he has taken the ball 97 times and produced an earned run average of 3.54 in that time, along with a 29.8% strikeout rate. FanGraphs considered him to be worth a combined 12.6 wins above replacement in those years, the eighth-best tally out of all big league pitchers. His ERA jumped to 4.58 ERA in 2023 but there seems to be little concern about that. His 27.3% strikeout rate was also a couple of ticks below the previous two seasons but he was also held back by his .330 batting average on balls in play and 69.4% strand rate, both of which are on the unlucky side. His 3.72 FIP and 4.10 SIERA suggest he was closer to his previous self than the ERA may indicate.
In addition to his skills, he’s also attractive due to his contractual situation. While frontline starters can secure nine-figure guarantees as free agents, Cease is still in his arbitration years. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM and will be due one more raise before he’s slated for free agency after 2025.
Whether the Sox eventually move Cease or not, they will have plenty of question marks in their rotation. Pitchers like Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, Michael Soroka and Touki Toussaint will be in the mix for jobs but there’s uncertainty with each one of them. Fedde is coming off a tremendous showing in the Korea Baseball Organization but struggled in his MLB career prior to that. Soroka was mediocre in 2023 after missing most of the previous three seasons due to injuries. Kopech and Toussaint have battled significant control problems in their respective careers.
It appears the club is keeping an open mind with their rotation mix, with Crochet set to be built up this year. The lefty has previously expressed an interest in return to a rotation gig and will apparently get some kind of shot in the months to come.
Now 24 years old, Crochet was drafted by the Sox in 2020 and was quickly launched to the majors, making his debut later that same year as a reliever. In 2021, he stuck with the big league bullpen and posted an ERA of 2.82 over 54 appearances. There was some consideration of stretching him out as a starter going into 2022 but he required Tommy John surgery that April and missed the entire campaign. He returned to the Sox last year as a reliever but missed three months of the season due to shoulder inflammation and eventually made just 13 appearances.
Due to his limited workload in recent years, it may not be possible to fully stretch him out in just one season, something Getz acknowledged. Due to the canceled minor leagues in 2020, the Tommy John layoff and then the shoulder troubles, the southpaw has thrown just 73 big league innings over the past four years, as well as another 12 1/3 on rehab assignments in 2023. That would make it difficult for him to suddenly jump to 200 or even 150 innings in 2024, but the club will nonetheless give him some runway to see how it plays out.
“He believes he can be a starter. We’ve seen him be a starter in the past. So we are going to go into spring prepared to stretch him out and we’ll make adjustments along the way if need be,” Getz said. “He hasn’t started in a couple years. So, it’s going to take a little bit of time to appropriately stretch him out. We are going in with the intention for him to be a starter in 2024.” Crochet is eligible for arbitration this winter and is currently slated for free agency after 2026.
Also in the rotation mix will be Flexen, with Getz saying they expect starter’s innings out of him. The righty has worked both as a starter and reliever in recent years, with a disastrous 2023 campaign but better results in the two prior seasons. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 317 1/3 innings for the Mariners, with 53 of his 64 appearances coming as a starter. He had a 3.66 ERA in that time, only striking out 16.5% of batters but limiting walks and barrels.
But in 2023, he finished with a 6.86 ERA, splitting his time between the Mariners and Rockies. The Sox decided to overlook that rough showing and gave Flexen a $1.75MM guarantee on a big league deal. Though his performance will ultimately have a bearing on his role, the club appears to be planning on slotting him into the rotation mix.
Turning away from the rotation, Getz also said the club doesn’t have an established right fielder. He mentioned that they have internal options, including non-roster invitees, but that they are looking to make additions. That is a reflection of the poor debut season of Óscar Colás, who was a notable prospect coming into 2023 but struggled badly in his first 75 major league games. He batted .216/.257/.314 in his 263 plate appearances and also received poor grades for his defense. That led to tallies of -1.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and -1.5 from Baseball Reference. He still has two option years remaining, allowing the club to keep him in the minors if he doesn’t show signs of significant improvement.
The free agent market still features some notable outfield-capable guys, such as Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman, Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Joc Pederson, David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, Joey Gallo, Whit Merrifield and Randal Grichuk. The trade market could theoretically feature guys such as Randy Arozarena and Max Kepler, though it would be a surprise if a retooling club like the White Sox gave up significant prospects in any deal.
In terms of the internal options who could be battling Colás, Gavin Sheets has had some good hitting results in the past but is coming off a rough season and is considered a poor defender. Brett Phillips was signed to a minor league deal and is a strong defender but weak at the plate. Wynton Bernard and Mark Payton have been signed to minor league deals as well but both of them have less than 70 major league plate appearances. Given those internal options, keeping an eye out for upgrades makes sense, whether that’s a free agent signing, a trade or even just a waiver claim.
AL Central Notes: Buxton, Crochet, Tigers
Twins outfielder Byron Buxton has dealt with many injuries throughout his career, which has led the Twins to use him exclusively as a designated hitter so far this season. However, it seems that was not simply a choice they made about protecting him from future injuries. “From the beginning of the year, he has not been physically able to play in the outfield,” manager Rocco Baldelli tells Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. “If he was, he would be out there. If we even thought that it was possible that he could play in the outfield right now, he would be out there.”
Buxton underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in September of last year and seemingly recuperated enough to play but not enough that the Twins want him out on the grass. “Nothing has really gone up or down on that scale since the beginning of the year,” Baldelli said. “It hasn’t gotten closer. It hasn’t gotten further away. It’s basically in a similar spot. He is basically in a similar spot as he was in the beginning.”
Of course, the Twins could have opted to have Buxton start the season on the injured list and then activated him once he was 100% healthy, but it seems they preferred to have his bat in the lineup even without any defensive contributions and with diminished capabilities overall. Buxton’s sprint speed of 29.3 feet per second this year is roughly in line with last year’s 29.1 figure, though he has been steadily declining since hitting 30.9 in his rookie season. That seems to line up with the assessment that his knee hasn’t gotten fully healthy.
It might also be impacting him at the plate, as he’s hitting .209/.313/.428 on the year. That translates to a 106 wRC+, indicating he’s still been above average but below his own typical output. He hit .258/.316/.558 from 2019 to 2022 for a 136 wRC+. His .259 batting average on balls in play might point to some bad luck but his hard hit rate and average exit velocity are also down from last year. He’s also been struggling more of late, slashing just .149/.273/.266 since May 5. All hitters go through slumps, of course, but whether or not the knee is hampering him will be an interesting situation for the Twins to monitor as the season progresses.
Some more notes from the AL Central…
- The White Sox put left-hander Garrett Crochet on the injured list yesterday, retroactive to June 17, due to left shoulder inflammation. Right-hander Jimmy Lambert was reinstated from his own IL stint in a corresponding move. Crochet was drafted in 2020 and was quickly launched into the majors just a few months later. He’s since been able to post quality results out of the bullpen with a 2.69 ERA thus far, though injuries have also been an issue. He went on the IL in 2021 due to a back strain and then had his 2022 wiped out by Tommy John surgery. He returned this year but is now back on the IL after 10 outings. There hasn’t been anything to suggest this current injury is especially concerning but it’s yet another roadblock to him building up his workload. He has expressed a desire to return to starting pitching someday but has only been able to log 70 1/3 major league innings in his career thus far.
- The Tigers have faced a number of challenges in their rotation this year, which each of Eduardo Rodriguez, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Spencer Turnbull, Alex Faedo and Beau Brieske currently on the injured list. Given all of those absences, it’s hardly surprising that the club’s starters have a collective 4.91 ERA that places them 25th out of the 30 clubs in the league. Things could be on the verge of improving, however, with most of that group nearing returns. Chris McCosky of The Detroit News takes a look at the different hurlers and their rehabs, with Skubal and Manning seemingly the closest since they are already on rehab assignments at the Triple-A level. The Tigers are just 32-41 coming into today’s action but are only 3.5 games off the lead in the weak division. Getting some young starters back in the mix would surely help them stay afloat in that wide open competition. Manning had a 3.43 ERA last year but has been limited to just two outings so far this year due to a fractured fifth metatarsal in his right foot. Skubal had a 3.52 ERA last year but has been out of action since undergoing flexor tendon surgery in August.
White Sox Notes: Crochet, Hendriks, Clevinger
The White Sox have used flamethrowing lefty Garrett Crochet exclusively as a reliever to this point in his big league career, but the former No. 11 overall pick tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that he still has his sights set on an eventual rotation spot. Asked about the possibility of returning to a starting role down the road, Crochet acknowledged that it’s something that’s “definitely in the back of my mind” and that he “hopes” to eventually have that opportunity.
Any such transition isn’t likely to happen in 2023 after the lefty pitched just 54 1/3 innings in 2021 before missing the 2022 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The 6’6″ Crochet suggested that he’d be open to pitching in longer relief stints this season and building up his innings. Current ChiSox starters Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Mike Clevinger could all hit the open market this offseason. Giolito is a free agent at season’s end, while Clevinger has a mutual option (which are rarely exercised by both parties) and Lynn has an $18MM club option that feels pricey relative to his current struggles.
With a thin collection of pitching in the team’s system and virtually no high-end pitching prospects knocking on the door to the big leagues, moving Crochet into the rotation next season alongside Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech makes sense for the Sox. The looming trade deadline could bring about a shakeup on the pitching staff, with Giolito the likeliest to go in the event of a deadline sale. The asking price on both Cease and Kopech would surely be high, with both under club control through the 2025 season.
For now, Crochet is likely to remain in the ‘pen, where he was recently joined by returning closer Liam Hendriks. The 34-year-old Hendriks’ return from a battle with non-Hodgkins lymphoma was one of the best moments of the season for baseball fans, though it was quickly followed by an IL stint due to inflammation in his pitching elbow.
Luckily, imaging on Hendriks’ elbow did not reveal any structural damage, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. Hendriks has already received a cortisone shot to help combat the inflammation, and he’ll likely receive a platelet-rich plasma injection as well. Hendriks concedes that he felt “constant pain” throughout each of his past three appearances, wondering aloud whether his still-recent chemotherapy treatments have made it more difficult to recover between appearances.
Hendriks is hoping for a minimal stay on the 15-day IL but is on a wait-and-see timeline and stressed the importance of taking care of any health issues “the right way” during the current season. “I need to be cognizant of the way my body reacts and feels with everything, just due to the fact I still don’t have the strongest immune system,” Hendriks noted.
As for Clevinger, the Sox will perform additional testing on the righty today after he left last night’s start due to discomfort in his right biceps. Via Van Schouwen, Clevinger explained in the postgame that he “Felt my [biceps] grab, it grabbed pretty hard, kind of scared me”, though early testing in the trainer’s room was at least positive. The Sox will have a further update on him once today’s followup imaging is complete.
White Sox Reinstate Garrett Crochet
The White Sox announced that left-hander Garrett Crochet has been reinstated from the injured list. Right-hander Nicholas Padilla was optioned in a corresponding move.
Crochet, 24 next month, will be pitching in the majors for the first time in about a year and a half once he makes his first appearance of the season. He required Tommy John surgery in early April of 2022, which wiped out that entire season for him and the early parts of 2023 as well.
Prior to that lost year, Crochet had quickly established himself as a viable major league arm. The Sox selected him 11th overall in the 2020 draft and added him to their 60-man player pool shortly thereafter, with the minor leagues having been canceled by the pandemic that year. He made his major league debut later in that campaign with five scoreless appearances in the regular season and another in the postseason. In 2021, he stuck in the big leagues and tossed 54 1/3 innings with a 2.82 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate, 11.7% walk rate and 40.2% ground ball rate.
In the 2021-2022 offseason, the Sox seemed to give some consideration to stretching the lefty out as a starter, though those plans ended up getting pushed off the table by his surgery. It was reported in November that the club would keep him in a relief role in the 2023 season after the long layoff, with his health and performance this season perhaps dictating what role he will have in the future.
Going forward, it will be interesting to see if the Sox ever have any interest in reconsidering a move to the rotation. Both Lucas Giolito and Mike Clevinger are slated for free agency this winter, while the club has an $18MM club option on Lance Lynn with a $1MM buyout. With Lynn currently sporting a 7.51 ERA on the year, he’ll need a strong finish for the club to consider picking that up, meaning it’s possible three holes open up in that rotation next year. With only Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech currently lined up for jobs in 2024, there would have to be at least some temptation to give Crochet a shot at making the switch if they felt he were capable of it from a health and workload perspective.
For now, the Sox could use the extra southpaw in the bullpen after Jake Diekman posted a 7.94 ERA in 13 outings and was designated for assignment. Aaron Bummer is still with the big league club but has a 9.45 ERA so far this year. Sammy Peralta was with the Sox earlier this year but struggled in his one outing before getting optioned. Tanner Banks had a more palatable 3.38 ERA in his eight innings this year but struck out just 16.1% of opponents and also has been optioned to the minors.
White Sox Notes: Anderson, Alberto, Crochet, Hendriks, Moncada
The White Sox provided reporters with some updates on various injured players and their paths to rejoining the club, with James Fegan of The Athletic among those to relay the information (Twitter links). The ones closest to return are infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto, as they will be starting rehab assignments with Triple-A Charlotte tomorrow.
Anderson, 30 in June, has been on the injured list since April 11 due to a knee sprain. He was initially estimated to miss between two and four weeks, so it’s still possible for him to come back in that time frame. One of the club’s better players, his absence has corresponded with a dreadful downward slide in the standings. The Sox were 5-6 when he hit the shelf but have gone just 2-12 since, now sporting a record of 7-18.
The club is obviously better when Anderson is a part of it. Dating back to the start of 2019, he has 51 home runs and 58 stolen bases. His .317/.346/.471 batting line in that time amounts to a wRC+ of 122. Any club would be worse off when subtracting that kind of production, but his replacements have fared quite poorly. With him out of action, Elvis Andrus has become the everyday shortstop, but he’s hitting just .195/.260/.230 on the year for a wRC+ of 37. The second base position, which was previously covered by Andrus, has been mostly split between Romy González and Lenyn Sosa in that time. González is currently hitting .129/.129/.129 for a wRC+ of -39 while Sosa’s line is .122/.143/.220, -8 wRC+.
The tremendous drop-off from Anderson’s typical production to those numbers has surely played a role in the club’s recent struggles, making his imminent return fantastic news for the club. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate this summer if they fail to return to contention, given he’s in the final guaranteed season of his contract. However, the club has an affordable $14MM option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout.
There’s also good news in the return of Albero, on the IL with a quad strain, though he’s more of a role player. His career batting line of .271/.293/.380 translates to a wRC+ of 77, which isn’t terribly exciting but would still mean the club would have options to turn to when others are struggling.
Just slightly behind those two is left-hander Garrett Crochet, who missed all of last year due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He’s getting a check-up in Chicago but would be approved for his own rehab assignment if everything looks good there. The southpaw has a career 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, striking out 29% of batters faced against a 10.7% walk rate. Getting him back in the bullpen would surely give the club a nice boost back there.
Another boost for the bullpen could be coming as right-hander Liam Hendriks, who has missed all of this season so far while undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, though he recently shared the good news that he’s been declared cancer free. He’s just slightly behind Crochet, as he will report to Chicago for his own pre-rehab checkup next week. He’s become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in recent years, racking up 119 saves in the previous four seasons with a 2.26 ERA and 38.8% strikeout rate in that time.
While it’s great that those four players are making progress towards their respective returns, there’s one bit of news that’s less encouraging, per Fegan. Third baseman Yoán Moncada, who was been on the injured list for about two weeks due to back tightness, has been diagnosed with a protruding disc that is touching a nerve and causing pain in his glutes. While the issue is supposedly improving, Moncada still won’t be starting a rehab assignment during the current eight-game homestand that begins tonight. General manager Rick Hahn said that these issues don’t require offseason surgery about 80% of the time.
That’s surely not ideal information since Moncada’s IL placement originally seemed to be fairly precautionary. There was a period of a few days where it seemed he and the club were hoping to avoid an IL stint altogether but it’s now clearly more serious than initially thought. More updates will surely be forthcoming but it doesn’t seem like he’s close to a return and future surgery isn’t completely off the table.
Moncada has been fairly hot-and-cold in his career but was on a heater this year before the injury popped up, hitting .308/.325/.564 through his first nine games. Thankfully, his absence hasn’t created as much of a hole in the lineup as Anderson’s has, as Jake Burger has filled in with a .213/.309/.596 showing. Still, it’s a discouraging update on a key member of the core for a club that was held back by significant injuries last year and has been battling them again this year. His contract runs through 2024 with a $25MM option for 2025 that has a $5MM buyout.
White Sox Select Oscar Colas, Release Leury Garcia
The White Sox have requested unconditional release waivers on utilityman Leury García, the club announced. Chicago has formally selected the contracts of outfield prospect Oscar Colás and veteran infielder Hanser Alberto. The Sox also placed Garrett Crochet, Tanner Banks and Liam Hendriks on the 15-day injured list.
None of the transactions come as a surprise. Chicago GM Rick Hahn had more or less confirmed these decisions over the weekend. It finalizes the end of García’s nine-plus year tenure on the South Side. Initially acquired from the Rangers back in 2013, the switch-hitting García carved out a long-term bench role on the strength of his defensive flexibility. He never made a huge offensive impact but endeared himself to a few different coaching staffs.
García had the best season of his career in 2021, when he posted a .267/.335/.376 line over 474 plate appearances. Headed to free agency for the first time that winter, García returned to the South Side on a very surprising three-year deal. The Sox guaranteed him $16.5MM, seemingly committing to him as a versatile bench piece for the extended future.
That turned out disastrously, as García was among the worst hitters in the game last year. He managed only a .210/.233/.267 line in 97 contests. Continued struggles in Spring Training led the Sox to eat the $11MM remaining on his contract. They informed him over the weekend he wouldn’t be part of the Opening Day roster. Once he clears release waivers — an inevitability considering the amount of money remaining on his deal — he’ll be free to explore opportunities elsewhere.
Alberto secures a depth infield role in his stead. Signed to a minor league deal over the winter, the righty-hitting Alberto is a high-contact hitter who’s best deployed against lefty pitching. He almost never walks and rarely hits for power but he puts the ball in play and can play throughout the infield. Alberto hit .244/.258/.365 in 73 games for the Dodgers last year.
Colás is one of the organization’s top prospects. He’s expected to see the bulk of right field playing time and is now positioned to make his MLB debut. The 24-year-old hit .314/.371/.524 over three minor league levels last season. Despite a relatively modest .258/.279/.424 showing this spring, he earns a look in the right field rotation alongside Gavin Sheets and Romy González.
Chicago Notes: Suzuki, Taillon, Crochet
Seiya Suzuki was a late scratch from the Cubs lineup, as the team announced to reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times) that the outfielder was dealing with left oblique tightness. More will be known about Suzuki once he completes some tests, though for now, there is certainly concern over his status given the rather wide range of recovery timelines associated with oblique injuries. Even if Suzuki’s issue is relatively minor, it might create an immediate problem with his planned participation on Team Japan at the World Baseball Classic.
A finger sprain cost Suzuki about six weeks of his first MLB season, but he still hit a solid .262/.336/.433 with 14 homers over 446 plate appearances with the Cubs in 2022. More will be expected from Suzuki in his sophomore year (especially for a Cubs team that plans to be more competitive) but the first order of business is to make sure that he’s healthy and that his oblique injury doesn’t lead to much missed time.
Some more notes on both Windy City teams…
- The Mets and Phillies were the other finalists for Jameson Taillon, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that Philadelphia offered Taillon slightly more than the four years and $68MM he received from the Cubs. Since Taijuan Walker signed with the Phils for four years and $72MM, it could be that the Phillies offered similar deals to both pitchers and either Walker accepted first, or perhaps Taillon opted for Chicago’s offer instead. However, Taillon said that “I thought I was going to be a Met for a while,” indicating that New York was also strongly in the running. The mutual interest between both Taillon and the Cubs may have been the deciding factor, as “the Cubs made a really strong first impression” on the first day of free agency, and the team “made it clear from day one I was a top priority. If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me. They showed me a good plan. It’s been exciting.”
- The White Sox are tentatively aiming for May as Garrett Crochet‘s return date from Tommy John rehab, as per MLB.com’s Sox-specific injuries and transactions page. Crochet underwent the TJ surgery last April, so the 13-month layoff would fit within the procedure’s usual recovery timeline. The Sox have already said that Crochet will work as a reliever when he returns, so he’ll need to build less arm strength than a pitcher who was returning to a starting role. Crochet is slated to move from two bullpen sessions per week to one high-intensity bullpen session per week, with an eye towards pitching in game action during extended Spring Training and then a minor league rehab assignment.
Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.
However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.
With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.
AL East
The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.
The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.
The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.
Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas
Effross is a lock for the Yankees‘ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.
The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.
AL Central
Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers‘ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.
Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”
Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.
AL West
It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.
NL East
The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.
Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.
Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez
The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.
The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.
Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg
The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”
NL Central
Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks
Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.
Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone
Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.
The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.
NL West
Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley
The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.
Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen
The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.
The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.
Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023
News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.
Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.
Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.
Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021
Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.
Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021
Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022 season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.
José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively
Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.
Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021
Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.
James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021
Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.
Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021
May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.
Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021
Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.
Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021
Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.
Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021
Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.
Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021
Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.
Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022
Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.
Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022
Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.
John Means, Orioles — April 2022
Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.
Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022
Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.
Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022
Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.
Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022
Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.
Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022
Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.
Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022
Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.
Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022
Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.
September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper
These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.
White Sox Planning To Keep Garrett Crochet In Bullpen For 2023
The White Sox face some questions about their starting rotation this offseason, with the group’s lack of depth needing to be addressed from the outside. Dylan Cease doubled down on his 2021 breakout to finish second in AL Cy Young voting. He’s a true ace, while Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn will look to bounce back from uncharacteristically middling seasons to reestablish themselves as above-average arms in the middle of the staff.
Michael Kopech figures to assume the #4 rotation spot, but the club doesn’t have a great option at fifth starter after seeing Johnny Cueto hit free agency. Davis Martin is the in-house favorite for that role, but general manager Rick Hahn told reporters at last week’s GM Meetings the club would look to plug the hole with an outside addition.
One option that does not seem to be on the table is stretching left-hander Garrett Crochet out as a starter at any point next season. Pitching coach Ethan Katz told reporters this afternoon he doesn’t “think starting is in the cards next year” for the hard-throwing 23-year-old (link via James Fegan of the Athletic). Crochet underwent Tommy John surgery this past April. He’s presently stretched out to throwing from 120 feet, tweets MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, but he nevertheless seems unlikely to be on the Opening Day roster just 12 months removed from surgery. Once he’s healthy, it looks as if the White Sox will return him to a bullpen role in which he’s had plenty of success in his young career.
The 11th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Crochet made his big league debut as a reliever with the Sox just a few months after coming out of the University of Tennessee. He mostly stayed in that role for 2021, working 54 1/3 innings of 2.82 ERA ball over 54 appearances. There was some thought the Sox could consider lengthening Crochet into rotation work this past season, but he was diagnosed with the ligament damage in his elbow a few days before the start of the season. He went under the knife just before Opening Day and didn’t pitch this year.
Crochet only made one 3 1/3-inning start during his final season of college. He missed the first few weeks of that season with injury, and the pandemic resulted in the cancelation of the college baseball season almost immediately upon his return to the mound. With no minor league campaign that year, he threw a combined 9 1/3 innings between college and MLB. Factor in his 54 1/3 frames last year, and Crochet has just 63 2/3 innings under his belt since the end of the 2019 campaign.
With such a limited platform, it’s sensible for the White Sox to opt against trying to build him towards a rotation workload at any point in 2023. At the same time, it also raises the question of whether such a move will ever be practicable. Many prospect evaluators suggested Crochet could be better suited for relief work dating back to his time in Knoxville, but the White Sox presumably wouldn’t have drafted him so highly if they didn’t feel he had at least some chance of starting. The unfortunately-timed Tommy John surgery has killed any possibility of that to this point, and Crochet will have already topped three years of MLB service by the end of next season.
Of course, Crochet can be a valuable piece of the Sox’s pitching staff even if he’s limited to shorter stints. He’s already demonstrated the capacity to handle big league hitters, punching out 28.3% of opponents behind an 11.9% swinging strike rate and a fastball that averaged just under 97 MPH in 2021. Crochet only once faced more than eight batters in an outing that year, but Katz indicated the club could deploy him a multi-inning relief role next season.
The White Sox have some experience in building a talented power arm back gradually from an extended layoff. Kopech followed a fairly similar path. He started his first four big league games in 2018 but underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of that year. He spent all of 2019 rehabbing and then opted out of the 2020 season. The Sox worked him back from that two-year absence as a multi-inning reliever, giving him 69 1/3 innings through 44 appearances in 2021. He made the full-time move to the rotation this past season, building to 119 1/3 frames over 25 starts.
Kopech’s year was cut short by injury. Originally placed on the injured list in mid-September with a shoulder strain, he underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee just before the season ended. The initial expectation was the right-hander would be ready for Spring Training, and while that may still be the case, Katz conceded today Kopech’s recovery has involved “a little slower progression than we originally thought.” The pitching coach noted the team still expects Kopech to have sufficient time to build up to five-inning appearances by the end of exhibition play, but any uncertainty on that front would only increase the team’s urgency to add rotation depth this offseason.