AL East Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Rich Hill
Participation in the postseason usually garners a significant revenue bump for qualifying teams, which made it particularly painful for the small-market Rays to miss out on the revenue from 10 home games in 2020. Not only did the Rays lose that potential revenue because of coronavirus, but this year’s playoffs actually cost them money, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They’re also missing out on their usual revenue-sharing check, as well as, obviously, attendance revenues, notes Topkin. It’s going to have an affect on Rays’ roster decisions this winter. That could mean smaller cost-saving moves like non-tendering Hunter Renfroe, or it could mean more impactful moves like dealing core players Kevin Kiermaier or Blake Snell. Rays GM Erik Neander is likely to be active exploring the trade market, but that’s nothing new for Tampa.
- Rich Hill finished a successful one-year stint in Minnesota with a 3.03 ERA/3.88 FIP across 8 starts totaling 38 2/3 innings with 7.2 K/9 to 4.0 BB/9. It’s those last two numbers that might trouble the 40-year-old Hill. From 2017 to 2019, Hill posted 10.68 K/9 to 2.97 BB/9 with the Dodgers. Still, Hill was largely effective in 2020 by keeping the ball in the ballpark. But he didn’t accomplish his primary goal: winning a World Series. Hill has only appeared in five postseasons throughout his 16-year career, and he’s never won a World Series. In choosing his next team, writes WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Hill’s primary calculus is playing the odds and trying to find a place to contribute that gives him the best chance of winning a World Series.
- That said, Hill hasn’t ruled out joining his hometown Red Sox, per Bradford. Hill does offer an assessment of Boston’s needs this offseason, saying, “Bullpen. Work on the bullpen. I think the lineup is good. Get everybody back. Obviously getting Sale back is huge. Eddie [Rodriguez], having him come back, being healthy. And Nathan [Eovaldi]. Those are three really, really, really good guys.” It’ll be tough sledding for the Red Sox in the AL East, though returning Sale and Rodriguez to the rotation would be a healthy start.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
- The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
- The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
- Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ‘Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
- The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
- Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
- The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.
Earlier Settlements
Rays Exploring Outfield Additions
The Rays are looking at a variety of possibilities for improving their outfield mix, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).
The Tampa Bay organization previously struck a deal that shipped out one outfielder (Tommy Pham) and brought in another (Hunter Renfroe). While there had been some whispers of hiccups in the deal, it is now fully locked up, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter).
While there isn’t exactly a new hole to be filled, then, the Rays are still looking to bolster a unit that is now missing Avisail Garcia and his 530 plate appearances from 2019. Garcia is, as previously rumored, one of the ongoing targets, per Sherman.
In addition to exploring a return for Garcia, the Rays have also turned their gaze to the west. A pair of left-handed-hitting Japanese players, rangy center fielder Shogo Akiyama and slugging corner outfielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, are each said to carry appeal. While they’re quite different players — from one another and from Garcia — it seems the Rays can conceive of ways that all would fit into their ever-adaptable roster.
Rays, Padres Announce Tommy Pham-Hunter Renfroe Trade
DECEMBER 6, 6:32pm: The trade has been announced. The Rays will acquire a player to be named later to go with Renfroe and Edwards, with the Padres picking up Pham and Cronenworth.
2:00am: It appears the Rays will also land another prospect in the deal, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com.
12:27am: The Padres will also acquire minor leaguer Jake Cronenworth in the trade, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports. The 25-year-old Cronenworth enjoyed an eminently successful year at the Triple-A level in 2019, when he hit .334/.429/.520 with 10 HRs and 12 steals in 406 trips to the plate. Cronenworth’s primarily a middle infielder, but the 2015 seventh-rounder can also pitch. He put up 7 1/3 scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and four hits allowed at the minors’ highest level in 2019, though the righty hurler did surrender eight walks.
DECEMBER 5, 10:55pm: The teams have agreed to the trade, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. However, it won’t be announced until medical reviews of all the involved players are completed Friday.
10:42pm: The Rays and Padres are deep into talks on a trade that would see Tampa Bay outfielder Tommy Pham and San Diego outfielder Hunter Renfroe switch clubs, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Rays would also land Single-A shortstop Xavier Edwards, while the Padres would pick up an unnamed prospect to go with Pham.
This is already the second major outfield trade of the winter for the Padres, who acquired Trent Grisham from the Brewers last week. Pham is far more proven than Grisham, as the former is coming off yet another outstanding season at the plate. The 31-year-old Pham, whose first full season came with the Cardinals in 2017, has somewhat quietly been among the majors’ most effective outfielders over the past three campaigns. He has totaled 13.6 fWAR, including 3.3 in 2019, dating back to his initial full season. Typically one to post high on-base percentages, Pham’s coming off a year in which he slashed .273/.369/.450 with 21 home runs and 25 stolen bases across 654 plate appearances.
In Pham, the Padres – led by under-fire general manager A.J. Preller – are getting a player with two years’ control remaining. Pham, who’s slated to earn a projected $8.6MM next season, will join Grisham, Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, Franchy Cordero and prospect Taylor Trammell as the Padres’ most prominent outfielders.
While Pham looks like an intriguing addition for the Padres, they’re giving up a powerful and affordable outfielder at the same time. Renfroe, soon to turn 28, entered the bigs as a first-round pick of the Padres in 2013. He has hit at least 26 homers in each season since debuting in earnest in 2017, including 33 this year, though injuries helped undermine him after a hot start in 2019. Renfroe wound up slashing .216/.289/.489 over 494 PA, and he earned elite marks in 998 innings divided among all three outfield positions (22 Defensive Runs Saved, 10.1 Ultimate Zone Rating).
Never a team to boast a high payroll, the Rays are saving quite a bit of money in this swap. Renfroe should only make around $3.4MM next season, which will be his first of four arbitration-eligible years. He’ll presumably accompany Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier as the Rays’ starting outfielders in 2020, thus replacing free agent Avisail Garcia.
Along with Renfroe, the Rays are getting a quality farmhand in Edwards, a 2018 first-rounder whom FanGraphs ranked as the Padres’ 14th-best prospect in a loaded Padres system back in May. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote then that Edwards “is a high-effort offensive catalyst who knifes at defenses with line drives and well-placed bunts,” adding that second base or center field could be in his future. The 20-year-old divided 2019 between both middle infield positions and batted .322/.375/.396 with just a single homer in 596 PA at the Single-A and High-A levels.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Hunter Renfroe Set For Minor Foot Surgery
Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe is scheduled to undergo a minor surgery to remove a bone spur from the top of his right foot, according to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com.
The surgery is expected to prevent Renfroe from participating in offseason workouts for about a week, per Cassavell.
While it’s unclear just how long Renfroe has been dealing with the injury, it hasn’t required an IL stint for the 27-year-old outfielder. He has been dealing with other injuries to his elbow and ankle throughout the second half of the season, which has been a disappointment for Renfroe after he looked ready to break out with a stellar first half.
Those injuries may be partly to blame for what turned out to be a dreadful second half for Renfroe. After entering the All-Star break with a .248/.303/.618 batting line and 27 home runs, his numbers have plummeted over the season’s final months. Playing through injuries, Renfroe has slugged just .295 since the All-Star break, managing just six home runs.
Whether Renfroe would have been able to maintain his first-half output over a full season is inconclusive, though the truth likely lies somewhere in between the two extremes. He still figures to hold a position in the Padres’ plans for 2020 and beyond; the team refrained from dealing him earlier this season on account of his strong defensive track record, prodigious power, and years of team control remaining.
NL Injury Notes: Kimbrel, Verdugo, Renfroe, Taijuan
Injured Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel is progressing toward a return, but that won’t come until at least the weekend, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com reports. The big-money in-season signing has been on the injured list with right elbow inflammation since Sept. 1, making him eligible to come back as early as Thursday. Kimbrel’s IL placement came on the heels of yet another disappointing performance, in which he yielded three earned runs on two hits (including a homer) in two-thirds of an inning. He’s one of the greatest closers ever, which is why the Cubs guaranteed him $43MM over three years, yet Kimbrel hasn’t resembled his dominant self this season. While the 31-year-old has converted 13 of 15 save opportunities, he owns a bloated 5.68 ERA with 12.32 K/9 against 5.21 BB/9, and has given up just under three HRs per nine across 19 innings of work.
- The Dodgers clinched their seventh straight NL West title Tuesday, but they’re also dealing with some unwelcome news: Outfielder Alex Verdugo isn’t nearing a return, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. An oblique strain forced the rookie to the IL back on Aug. 6, but he suffered a back injury on a rehab assignment and will sit out “for at least a few days,” Castillo writes. Verdugo has been a valuable contributor this year, having slashed .294/.342/.475 with 2.2 fWAR in 377 plate appearances, but the loaded Dodgers have carried on fine without him thus far.
- Padres manager Andy Green isn’t willing to guarantee that banged up outfielder Hunter Renfroe will play again this season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays. For now, Renfroe’s going to rest on account of right elbow and ankle problems. “Hunter has battled through a lot this second half,” said Green, who added, “There have been a number of days he was unavailable and we’ve managed not to talk about it.” We covered Renfroe’s significant second-half struggles earlier Tuesday, though it now seems possible health problems have been a major cause for his summer slump.
- Injuries have prevented Diamondbacks right-hander Taijuan Walker from taking a big league mound since April 2018, but he said Tuesday (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) he’s still hoping to make an appearance this year. The 27-year-old sat out the majority of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and has dealt with shoulder troubles this season. However, he threw his first bullpen session in four months Tuesday and came out unscathed. Walker’s absence is among the reasons the Diamondbacks’ starting staff has been shaky this year, though the club has nonetheless stayed in the National League wild-card race.
Hunter Renfroe’s Second-Half Decline
Just a couple months ago, Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe looked like a legitimate breakout player. As a result, the defensively adept slugger drew plenty of trade interest leading up to the deadline, though the Padres understandably elected against parting with him. This season has since become about looking forward for the out-of-contention Padres, who are reportedly set to count on Renfroe as one of their main outfielders again in 2020. There are clear reasons for that – including Renfroe’s 31 home runs, whopping 22 Defensive Runs Saved, and his three remaining seasons of team control – but they’ll need the 27-year-old to get off the schneid at the plate in 2020 to increase their chances of breaking a seemingly interminable playoff drought.
Although his HR total is prodigious, Renfroe has only been a middling offensive performer this year, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. His .222/.290/.498 line in 462 trips to the plate has led to an unspectacular 99 wRC+. Despite his defensive excellence, Renfroe’s so-so offense has limited him to 1.9 fWAR, essentially making him an average player. There’s value in that, especially on a cheap salary, though Renfroe looked as if he was destined for better not long ago. When the All-Star break rolled around in mid-July, Renfroe had already put up 2.4 fWAR with 27 homers and a 130 wRC+ in 289 plate appearances. Since then, however, he has dipped to a dismal .169/.260/.291 line with four HRs across 173 PA. Renfroe’s minus-0.5 fWAR during the second half of the season ties him for the fourth-worst mark in the game.
If you’re wondering what caused the destruction of Renfroe’s offensive numbers, it starts with a massive downturn in power – evidenced in part by the noticeable decrease in HRs. Renfroe boasted a ridiculous .361 ISO at the break, but the number has plummeted to a nonthreatening .122 during the second half of the season. A mammoth decline in impactful contact is an obvious cause. According to FanGraphs, Renfroe posted a hard-hit rate of 52.1 percent over the first couple months of the year. The figure has fallen to 33.7 since the All-Star Game, while Renfroe has made far less contact in general and seen his strikeout rate soar from 27.3 percent to an even 37.0.
Health may be factoring into Renfroe’s late-season issues, as manager Andy Green said Tuesday (via Dennis Lin of The Athletic) that his production has “suffered because of” a sore elbow and a problematic ankle. Likewise, it hasn’t helped Renfroe’s cause that pitchers have somewhat changed their approach when he has come to the plate, having thrown more sliders against him as the season has progressed, per FanGraphs. Renfroe’s especially vulnerable when dealing with breaking pitches, according to Statcast, which credits him with a .237 weighted on-base average/.219 expected wOBA against those offerings.
By Statcast’s standards, Renfroe’s overall output has been something of a mixed bag. He ranks in the league’s 66th percentile or better in exit velocity and Statcast’s Outs Above Average defensive metric, but his other numbers aren’t as encouraging. For one, Renfroe’s expected batting average – .218 – dwells toward the bottom of the league (third percentile). And his xwOBA (.310; 27th percentile) also doesn’t offer much encouragement, suggesting he has actually been fortunate to hit for a real wOBA (.328) that’s more mediocre than spectacular.
In spite of his second-half woes, it’s evident San Diego views Renfroe as a player who could be part of the solution as it seeks a return to relevance. But if Renfroe’s really going to emerge as a high-end complement to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in 2020, the Padres will need the player who showed up during the first half of this season to reappear going forward. If healthy, perhaps he will.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rays Showing Interest In Padres Outfielders
The Rays are working the phones on multiple fronts, with the evident aim of adding pitching as well as a bat. In that latter pursuit, the team has engaged the padres regarding corner outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).
It’s not surprising to see those particular names pop up, if only because of the prior rumored Tampa Bay targets. The club has been tied to numerous powerful right-handed hitters, most of whom would represent full or part-time options in the corner outfield. It seems that’s a particular profile of interest.
What’s particularly interesting about this slugging San Diego duo is that it consists of a pair of young and controllable players. That’d presumably increase the price tag, though perhaps there’s also some logic in the Rays going after pieces with long-term as well as short-term value.
There’s obviously a tough balance to be struck here by the Tampa Bay front office. Even as hopes of a division run have melted away, the club has made clear that it wishes to “do everything we can not to take this season for granted and see if there is a way to help this team in a responsible fashion.”
Renfroe and Reyes each possess an abundance of power. They’ve also both put it into play in game action at the MLB level this year. The former has a .238/.297/.563 slash and 29 dingers, the latter a .253/.312/.535 mark and 27 long balls. Both of those lines translate to a 116 wRC+ and suggest equal parts intrigue and concern as to sustainability.
The sluggers each have a little more swing and miss, and a little less plate discipline, than might be preferred. Barring an adjustment, their fortunes will rise and fall on their ability to square up the baseball consistently. That sort of high-power, low-OBP profile hasn’t been favored in recent years, though perhaps that could create a bit of an opportunity for the Rays.
It remains to be seen how aggressively the Padres will market their corner sluggers. While the club has yet to resolve its general outfield crunch, it’s not as if the organization is desperate to clear a path for a can’t-miss prospect.
Padres Reportedly Willing To Trade Most Position Players
Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe has come up in trade rumors this week, and the club is indeed willing to deal the 27-year-old slugger, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. However, Renfroe’s not the only Padre who could end up on the move before the July 31 trade deadline. The team’s willing to give up “virtually” any of its position players except for shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., third baseman Manny Machado and first baseman Eric Hosmer, according to Acee.
The Padres’ goal in dealing from its current position player cast would be to upgrade offensively at two spots – catcher and center field – and add “young arms,” per Acee. Their desire to pick up controllable pitching has long been known, though it’s interesting they want a better offensive backstop.
Major leaguers Austin Hedges and Austin Allen haven’t hit, but Triple-A catcher Francisco Mejia rode his potential at the plate into high rankings on prospect lists not long ago. As recently as last summer, when the Padres acquired Mejia from the Indians for relievers Brad Hand and Adam Cimber, Keith Law of ESPN regarded Mejia as one of the game’s top five farmhands. While Mejia has struggled mightily in the majors since then, he’s still just 23 and has tallied a mere 134 plate appearances in the bigs. It’s unclear from Acee’s report whether the Padres would be open to parting with Mejia, who has raked since they optioned him to the minors last month, or if they just don’t think he’s ready to make an offensive impact at the game’s highest level yet.
The 26-year-old Hedges has made an MLB impact, meanwhile, but almost solely behind the plate. Hedges rates as an elite defender, and though he was a respectable offensive player just last season, he otherwise hasn’t hit much since his 2015 debut.
Likewise, center fielder Manuel Margot has seldom hit since the Padres first promoted him in 2015. There has been talk of San Diego demoting him to the minors to help alleviate its outfield logjam. But as a 24-year-old speedster who has excelled in the field and won’t reach arbitration until the offseason, he’d likely draw interest on the trade market.
Perhaps aside from Renfroe, right fielder Franmil Reyes stands out as the Padres’ most valuable trade chip among position players. They offer similar offensive skill sets, and Renfroe’s a much better defender, though Reyes is three-plus years younger. Set to turn 24 in July, Reyes has slashed .263/.320/.520 (123 wRC+) with 35 home runs in 516 PA since he first came up last season. Further increasing Reyes’ appeal, he’s earning a minimal salary and isn’t scheduled to reach arbitration until after the 2021 season.
If the Padres keep Renfroe and Reyes, perhaps they’d consider trading fellow corner outfielder Josh Naylor. The 21-year-old Naylor hasn’t gotten off to a strong start since the Padres promoted him May 24, but he’s a top 100 prospect or close to it. Franchy Cordero, yet another of their young corner outfielders, seems likely to stay put when considering his recent injury issues. Cordero, 24, has missed most of the past season-plus with right elbow issues, and he suffered a mild quad injury while rehabbing this week.
As for the rest of San Diego’s roster, outfielder Wil Myers and second baseman Ian Kinsler jump to the fore as players the team would probably like to move. The trade value is minimal in both cases, though.
Myers, 28, hasn’t lived up to the six-year, $83MM contract the Padres gave him in January 2017. They backloaded the deal, meaning he’s owed almost $63MM through 2022 (including a $1MM buyout in ’23). Although Myers was a 30-home run hitter as recently as 2017, he’s still just a .242/.324/.450 batter (106 wRC+) dating back to then.
Kinsler, 36, joined the Padres on a two-year, $8MM contract in the offseason. While Kinsler has long been a quality major leaguer, the Padres haven’t gotten much return on their investment so far. Kinsler has hit .204/.264/.387 (72 wRC+) with minus-0.3 fWAR in 201 PA., though he has fared much better following an ice-cold April (.262/.309/.505 since May 1). Regardless of whether the Padres find a taker for Kinsler, it seems like only a matter of time before he loses his starting spot to standout prospect Luis Urias.
After a surprisingly competitive start to the season, San Diego has begun fading from the National League playoff race. Losers of five straight, the Padres sit 33-36 and 5 1/2 games out of wild-card position. However, with the talent already on hand and the high-potential players baking in the minors, the club may not be far away from contending on an annual basis. It seems general manager A.J. Preller will operate aggressively over the next month-plus in an effort to better position his roster to accomplish that. With that in mind, the Padres should be a compelling team to watch leading up to the deadline.
Hunter Renfroe Drawing Trade Interest
As explored at MLBTR last week, the Padres have a well-known surplus of outfield options, and the mix could soon become even more crowded with Franchy Cordero (and, eventually, Travis Jankowski) on the mend. The Friars moved Alex Dickerson in a trade with the Giants this week, shedding one outfielder from their 40-man roster, but Dickerson hasn’t factored prominently into the crowded outfield picture anyhow. His departure does little to thin the field.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported this morning (subscription required) that a more prominent player, Hunter Renfroe, has been “quite popular” with other clubs as the Padres and other teams begin to explore trade possibilities now that the draft is in the rear-view mirror.
Renfroe was an oft-speculated offseason trade candidate, as the outfield crunch facing the Padres isn’t exactly a new development. But the Padres held onto all of their outfielders this winter, as they were seemingly unable to find an offer to their liking. In the case of Renfroe, that should prove to have been a smart play given that the 27-year-old has elevated his stock through the first two-plus months of the 2019 campaign. Through his first 196 plate appearances, Renfroe is hitting .243/.296/.602 with 18 home runs, nine doubles and a triple.
The on-base issues that plagued Renfroe in prior seasons are still present; his 7.1 percent walk rate is a near-mirror image of last year’s 6.8 percent, and he’s actually seen his strikeout rate rise from 24.7 percent to 27 percent. Renfroe’s average exit velocity has increased, though, and he’s shown more power than ever before. It’s extraordinarily unlikely that he’ll sustain his current 32.1 percent homer-to-flyball ratio — that’s only been done three times in the past decade — but an increase from last year’s 20.1 percent rate seems quite reasonable.
Beyond that, Renfroe’s glovework has improved by virtually any metric available. He’s already topped last year’s total of five Defensive Runs Saved in fewer than half as many innings. Ultimate Zone Rating has never pegged him as a positive defender, but he’s at +4.2 in 2019. Statcast’s Outs Above Average (+2) gives him a positive grade for the first time in his career as well.
In Renfroe, teams likely see a flawed but talented slugger whose power and defensive skills may be on the rise. He’s controlled for another four seasons beyond the 2019 campaign, although he’ll be arbitration-eligible in each of those years by virtue of Super Two status. Renfroe looks likely to head into arbitration on the heels of a 30-homer season and with upwards of 90 career long balls in the bank, so the arbitration process will treat him nicely. But even though he’ll be well-compensated over the long haul, he’s still a couple of productive years from securing a truly significant salary.
That considerable amount of club control remaining will give the Padres some pause when it comes to trading Renfroe, but they’ve also been linked to controllable starting pitchers for quite some time now. Renfroe is the type of piece who could help them to acquire such an asset. Corner outfielders are easier to come by than quality starters, so to acquire multiple seasons of such an arm, the Padres may need to include some other parts. As noted in last week’s look at their logjam, the Padres aren’t short on internal replacement options for Renfroe, and several teams with starters for sale are notably thin in the outfield. The Tigers (Matthew Boyd), Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman), Indians (Trevor Bauer, if they move him) all face some uncertainty in the outfield.
The mere fact that Renfroe is drawing interest doesn’t mean he’s any kind of lock to be moved. The Padres could move a different outfielder or, as they showed this offseason, forgo any sort of move and find a creative means of keeping all their current assets through the end of the season. Other injuries around the roster could always arise and lessen any urgency to make a decision this summer. Renfroe is an increasingly attractive trade piece, though, and his name figures to be mentioned frequently over the next seven weeks as the deadline draws nearer.