Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Mark Canha

Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham

By | at

The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario.  Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.

Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar.  According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery.  Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.

One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline.  L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency.  Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.

Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere.  With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.

Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored.  In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal.  Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.

Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option.  Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal.  An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking.  If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.

Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers.  The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026.  Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal.  While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.

“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move.  The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA.  It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season.  The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.

Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024.  It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.

Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met.  I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.”  Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past.  The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.

Mark Canha Drawing Trade Interest

By | at

Other clubs have been calling the Mets about the potential availability of outfielder Mark Canha, per ESPN’s Buster Olney, who lists the Mariners as a “possible match” given Seattle’s prior interest in the 34-year-old as a free agent (Twitter link).

Canha is playing out the second season of a two-year, $26.5MM deal signed in free agency during the 2021-22 offseason. His contract contains an $11.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout — an effective $9.5MM net decision for the Mets or for any team that acquires him.

While Canha isn’t hitting for the same power he has in the past, he’s drawing walks at a robust 10.5% clip and enjoying a generally solid season at the plate. None of his rate stats stand out, but his .244/.346/.396 batting line checks in about 11% better than average, by measure of wRC+. He’s striking out at a lower-than-average 17.3% clip and has also swiped seven bases in seven tries. He rarely chases pitches off the plate and makes contact on those offerings at a well above-average rate when he does (69%, compared to the league-average 62.5%).

In the outfield, Canha is best deployed in a corner, although he’s seen plenty of work in center throughout his career and still possesses above-average speed (65th percentile, per Statcast). Statcast also rates his jumps on fly-balls near the bottom of the league in 2023, however, and his arm strength also checks in a bit below average. Canha also has ample experience at first base, and the Mets have played him there for 87 innings this season.

Canha is earning a $10.5MM salary this season, with about $4.12MM of that sum yet to be paid out as of this writing. Add in the $2MM buyout, and he’s still owed a total of $6.12MM. However, Mets owner Steve Cohen is the game’s most willing spender and could potentially enhance the return on a trade by paying that sum down for a trade partner. The Mets did as much when trading Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and were also willing to eat the remainder of Chris Flexen’s contract in order to effectively purchase righty Trevor Gott from the Mariners.

Speaking of Seattle, the M’s make a sensible enough landing spot — if they choose to add at the deadline. Their offseason addition of veteran outfielder AJ Pollock was intended to add a platoon option in the outfield who could do damage against left-handed pitching, but it’s been an abject flop to date. Pollock is hitting .169/.222/.315 and has actually hit lefties worse than righties.

Canha isn’t a pure lefty masher — his career platoon splits are closer to even — but he’s been solid against southpaws in 2023. Granted, his .228 average when holding the platoon advantage is sub-par, but he’s getting on base at a strong .347 clip and slugging .418 when facing a lefty. That’s been par for the course in his career; he’s a lifetime .236/.327/.425 hitter against southpaws.

The Mets have arguably been the most disappointing team in MLB this season, sitting five games under .500 — 16.5 back in the division and seven back in the Wild Card race — despite an MLB-record payroll in excess of $300MM. Cohen said late last month, when his Mets were 36-43, that he “wouldn’t add” to the roster if his team was in a similar position at the deadline, calling it “silly” to do so.

New York is 9-7 in that time, including three straight wins, but they’ll likely need to rattle off a few more wins before even giving legitimate consideration to adding pieces at the deadline. In the meantime, short-term assets like Canha, Tommy Pham, David Robertson and Adam Ottavino will likely continue to be the focus of potential trade inquiries.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL East

By | at

We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the NL West and NL Central. Closing out the Senior Circuit:

Atlanta Braves

The Braves and Morton have had a productive relationship for the past few years. He’s signed a series of successive one-year contracts and served as an effective mid-rotation presence. A home run spike resulted in a 4.34 ERA last season but the Braves remained confident in Morton’s still-strong velocity and strikeout and walk numbers. They’ve gotten exactly what they’ve expected from the 39-year-old. He has a 3.59 ERA with a solid 24.5% strikeout rate and is still averaging north of 95 MPH on his fastball. If Morton maintains this form for a full season and wants to continue playing, it stands to reason Atlanta would have interest in bringing him back.

Rosario re-signed on a two-year contract after his 2021 postseason heroics helped Atlanta to a title. He’s always been a streaky performer, however, and the past two seasons haven’t been effective. Rosario hit just .212/.259/.328 in 80 games last year. There was some hope a corrective eye surgery could enable a bounceback but he’s only been slightly better in 2023. Rosario carries a .239/.269/.405 line in 171 trips to the plate. The Braves could pursue left field upgrades via trade this summer and are likely to cut Rosario loose at the end of the season.

d’Arnaud has been a quality catcher for Atlanta for the past few seasons. Last year’s .268/.319/.472 showing didn’t stop the Braves from a blockbuster acquisition of Sean Murphy, who is playing at a down-ballot MVP pace through two months. That pushed d’Arnaud into a backup/designated hitter role for which he’s arguably overqualified.

A concussion has limited d’Arnaud to 17 games thus far. He’s hitting .297/.318/.406 over 66 trips to the plate. An $8MM price point is solid value if the veteran continues to perform at his recent levels. Even with Murphy entrenched as Atlanta’s franchise backstop, the Braves were comfortable keeping d’Arnaud around as a highly-priced #2 option. They could do so again in 2024 or exercise the option and look to trade him this winter, as the Brewers did with second baseman Kolten Wong last offseason.

McHugh inked a two-year free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason. He was brilliant in year one, throwing 69 1/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate. He hasn’t come close to that form through this season’s first couple months. McHugh’s 3.54 ERA through 20 1/3 frames is respectable, but he’s punched out a meager 11.6% of opponents against a personal-worst 10.5% walk rate. The option price isn’t exorbitant and McHugh could yet pitch his way into it being exercised. He’ll need to miss more bats, though.

It’s a somewhat similar story with Yates. He signed a buy-low free agent deal in the middle of a Tommy John rehab during the 2021-22 offseason. Yates made a brief return late last season but hasn’t gotten an extended stretch of action until 2023. He’s missing bats on a solid 12.7% of his offerings and has an above-average 29.1% strikeout rate.

The righty’s control hasn’t come back yet, however. He’s walked 17.4% of opposing hitters and is relying on a .214 batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA at 3.26. Whether he can dial in the strike-throwing as he gets more reps probably determines if the Braves keep him around on a net $4.5MM decision.

Miami Marlins

Cueto signed an $8.5MM guarantee with Miami on the heels of a bounceback showing with the White Sox. It was an odd fit on a Marlins club with ample rotation depth and it hasn’t yet panned out. The 37-year-old got through just one inning in his season debut before suffering a biceps injury. He subsequently sprained his left ankle while on a minor league rehab stint and is on the 60-day injured list. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relayed on Tuesday that he’s up to 40 pitches in a bullpen session. A return probably isn’t too far off, but Cueto hasn’t made an impact thus far.

Miami acquired Barnes from the Red Sox in a change-of-scenery swap for Richard Bleier at the end of January. He’s off to a fine but not overwhelming start in his new environs. Over 21 innings, the righty reliever has a 3.43 ERA with near-average strikeout and walk numbers. His average fastball velocity is at a career-low 93.3 MPH, though, and he’s only getting swinging strikes at an 8% clip. Barnes looks more like a competent middle reliever than an All-Star closer at this stage of his career. The $5.75MM gap between the option value and the buyout price will probably prove a little too much for the Marlins.

New York Mets

Canha had a productive first season in Queens after signing a two-year free agent deal. He hit .266/.367/.403 over 542 plate appearances last year. He’s been off to a slower start in 2023, posting a .242/.324/.386 line with four homers — a league average performance by measure of wRC+. Canha picked things up in May after a tough April and still holds an everyday corner outfield role, although he’s increasingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup.

The $9.5MM gap between the option value and the buyout isn’t a huge price to pay for a solid everyday outfielder. That’s especially true for the Mets. This one remains to be determined based on Canha’s summer performance.

Escobar was another two-year signee just prior to the lockout. He was coming off a 28-homer showing in 2021 and has some defensive flexibility. Escobar has hit at a roughly league average level as a Met, showing his typical blend of above-average power with low walk totals. That includes a .244/.289/.433 showing over 98 plate appearances this year.

Brett Baty has taken over the primary third base job, pushing Escobar into a depth role off the bench. He’s a solid utility option and by all accounts a beloved clubhouse presence but the net $8.5MM call is likely pricey for a player in that kind of role.

Acquired from the Rays over the offseason, Raley has been a solid situational bullpen arm in Queens. He owns a 2.95 ERA over 18 1/3 innings with better than average strikeout and walk numbers (25.6% and 7.7%, respectively). Raley doesn’t throw especially hard but he misses bats at a league average clip. He’s been hit around by left-handed hitters in a small sample this year but kept them to a .155/.200/.282 line in 76 plate appearances in 2022. The $4.25MM call is a reasonable price point for an effective middle innings arm. If Raley keeps up this pace, there’s a decent chance the Mets bring him back.

Note: Víctor Robles and Jon Berti each signed arbitration contracts that contained 2024 club options. They’d remain eligible for arbitration next season even if the options are declined and have accordingly been excluded from this list.

Injury Notes: Colomé, Nance, Mets

By | at

The Rockies announced that right-hander Alex Colomé has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right lateral epicondylitis. Fellow righty Justin Lawrence was recalled to take over Colomé’s spot on the active roster. (Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette was among those to relay the moves before the official announcement.)

Lateral epicondylitis is better known as “tennis elbow,” which is perhaps notable for the hurler. The club hasn’t provided any information about how long they expect Colomé to be out of action, though an injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow will always lead to at least some level of concern.

The 33-year-old was signed to a one-year, $4.1MM contract in the offseason and has thrown 41 1/3 innings of 4.68 ERA ball, getting ground balls at a 55.6% clip. That’s well above the 43.3% league average for relievers and especially important when playing at Coors Field. As an impending free agent on a non-competitive team, Colomé’s name came up in trade rumors, though he ended up staying put after the Rockies had another quiet deadline.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • The Marlins announced some roster moves between games of today’s doubleheader, with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald being among those to pass them along. Right-hander Tommy Nance has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Jeff Brigham being optioned in a corresponding move. Nance made his MLB debut with the Cubs last year and then came to Miami on a waiver claim in March. He hasn’t found much success in the majors so far, pitching to a 6.54 ERA in his first 53 2/3 MLB innings. However, he’s fared much better in the minors, as evidenced by his 3.86 ERA in Triple-A over his career.
  • Last night, the Mets dealt with injuries to two infielders, as Eduardo Escobar left with side tightness and Jeff McNeil departed after a collision with Rhys Hoskins resulted in a cut on his hand. With their infield depth depleted, the club had to resort to emergency measures, plugging outfielder Mark Canha in at third base. Canha has some very limited third base work in his career, coming back in his time with Oakland. He logged two innings at the hot corner in 2015 and 13 more in 2016. “It was a little nerve-racking,” Canha told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “I just really didn’t want to make a mistake and make [Max Scherzer] angry.” The situation seems to have just been a temporary stopgap, as McNeil is back in the lineup today, playing second base with Luis Guillorme at third. Gosuke Katoh was at the ballpark today just in case, though neither McNeil nor Escobar were placed on the injured list.

Quick Hits: Canha, Escobar, Marte, Mets, Perez, Suarez

By | at

Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar are all playing well for the first-place Mets, making the team’s investment in the trio look like a canny move.  The New York Post’s Joel Sherman looks back at how the Mets added all three players during a frenzied span of around two days prior to the lockout, and how newly-hired GM Billy Eppler “emphasized on-base percentage, defense, versatility and players with strong reputations as good teammates,” with a particular focus on how well such free agents could adapt to Citi Field.  Sherman’s piece contains several interesting details about the Mets’ pursuit of the three players, as well as some other info on some of the other suitors.

The Rangers (another of the winter’s more aggressive teams) and Dodgers were interested in Canha, while “the Mets saw the Giants as a threat” due to Canha’s ties to the Bay Area.  As for Marte, New York was a relatively late entry into that chase, as agent Peter Greenberg said he met with roughly 20 other teams before touching base with the Mets, since Eppler wasn’t officially hired until midway through November.  However, the Mets made up plenty of ground by offering Marte a big four-year, $78MM contract that outpaced the other bidders.  “What stands out to me is that the Mets came in and in less than 24 hours we had a deal,” Greenberg said.

More from around baseball….

  • Martin Perez has been one of the surprises of the 2022 season, as the veteran lefty has an AL-best 1.56 ERA over 69 1/3 innings, plus a 54.7% grounder rate and just a single home run allowed.  With encouragement from Rangers coaches, Perez has re-established his sinker as a big part of his arsenal, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes, and Perez also took a tip from the legendary Pedro Martinez about throwing more pitches outside the strike zone, to induce more chases from batters.  The results speak for themselves, as Perez is having a career year at age 31, and setting himself up for a much more lucrative trip to free agent this winter.  After the Red Sox declined their club option on Perez last fall, he told Grant that the Pirates and Nationals each had interest prior to the lockout, but Perez instead chose to return to a familiar environment and signed with Texas for a one-year, $4MM pact in March.
  • The Padres placed right-hander Robert Suarez on the 15-day injured list due to right knee inflammation earlier this week, and manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including reps from 97.3 The Fan radio) that Suarez recently had surgery to remove “loose impediments.”  A specific recovery timeline isn’t known, but Suarez will miss “at least a couple of weeks before we see him back throwing.”  The 31-year-old rookie has been a solid performer out of San Diego’s bullpen this year, with Suarez contributing a 3.09 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate over 23 1/3 innings, though with a high 13.8% walk rate.

Mets Activate Mark Canha, Designate Matt Reynolds For Assignment

By | at

The Mets made a few roster moves today, as relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Mark Canha was reinstated from the Covid IL, while Matt Reynolds was designated for assignment to create room on the 40-man roster. (Players on the Covid list don’t count against a club’s 40-man roster.) Right-handed pitcher Jake Reed, who began the season on the injured list with an oblique strain, was reinstated and optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.

Canha, along with Brandon Nimmo, both tested positive for Covid-19 and landed on the shelf April 15th. Both players were asymptomatic. Under the league’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence from the club, though it’s possible to be reinstated in less time if the player has gone 24 or more hours without a fever, received a pair of negative PCR tests, and been given approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA joint committee (a panel of one league-appointed and one union-appointed physician). That seems to have been the case for both players, as Nimmo was activated yesterday and Canha today, just four and five days after their IL placement.

Signed by the Mets to a two-year, $26.5MM deal in the offseason, Canha is off to a great start in his Queens residency. In his first 26 plate appearances, he’s hitting .381/.500/.381, for a wRC+ of 174.

Reynolds was signed to a minor league deal in the offseason and had his contract selected when Nimmo and Canha went on the IL. The 31-year-old has 251 career plate appearances in 131 games, hitting .212/.282/.323. A second round pick of the Mets in 2012, Reynolds has become a bit of a journeyman, spending time with the Nationals, Royals and White Sox in recent years, before returning to the Mets. In 21 Triple-A plate appearances this year, he’s hit .118/.238/.294.

Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha Test Positive For Covid-19

By | at

Mets outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha are both out of the lineup and likely headed to the injured list after testing positive for Covid-19, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter link). Both players are asymptomatic. Newsday’s Tim Healey first reported this morning that tweets that a member of the Mets’ staff had tested positive and that a few players were deemed close contacts and undergoing testing.

Under the league’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence from the club, though it’s possible to be reinstated in less time if the player has gone 24 or more hours without a fever, received a pair of negative PCR tests, and been given approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA joint committee (a panel of one league-appointed and one union-appointed physician). Asymptomatic players are not subject to regular testing under the 2022 protocols, but it’s possible that Canha (who told reporters last year that he is vaccinated) and Nimmo were deemed close contacts of the staff member(s) in question.

With both Nimmo and Canha sidelined for at least the next few days, manager Buck Showalter tells reporters that outfielder Nick Plummer and infielder Matt Reynolds are with the team (Twitter link via Puma). Showalter also added that one member of his coaching staff tested positive (Twitter link via Healey).

Plummer is on the 40-man roster, but Reynolds was not previously on the 40-man. Neither Nimmo nor Canha will count against the 40-man roster while on the Covid-related injured list, however, making it easier to add Reynolds to the roster. The Mets have Jeff McNeil starting in left field, Travis Jankowski in center, Robinson Cano at second base and J.D. Davis at designated hitter today. Dominic Smith’s left-handed bat is somewhat surprisingly absent from the lineup against right-hander Zach Davies, but Showalter tells reporters that’s simply because he wanted to get Davis some at-bats amid a lengthy stretch of predominantly right-handed opponents (Twitter link via Puma).

Mets Sign Mark Canha

By | at

The Mets continue to bolster their position player mix, announcing agreement Tuesday with free agent outfielder Mark Canha. It’s reportedly a two-year, $26.5MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. The deal also contains a 2024 club option. A Bay Area native, Canha had previously spent his entire big league career with the A’s.

Canha’s contract will see him collect $12MM in 2022 along with a $2MM signing bonus and then $10.5MM in 2023. The 2024 club option is valued at $11.5MM and has a $2MM buyout attached.

Canha becomes the second big addition of the day for the Mets, who also agreed to terms with infielder Eduardo Escobar on a two-year guarantee this afternoon. Canha will step into the club’s outfield mix, with the bulk of that time presumably coming in the corners. While he has experience in all three outfield spots, he’s never rated highly as a center fielder and has logged the plurality of his career innings in left field.

Public metrics like Statcast’s Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved have been mixed on Canha’s corner outfield work over the past few seasons. There’s little question about his bat, though, as Canha has been an above-average hitter in each of the past four years by measure of wRC+.

Since the start of the 2019 season, the Berkeley product owns a .249/.377/.438 line over 1365 plate appearances. While he doesn’t have an eye-catching batting average, the right-handed hitter has walked in a fantastic 13.3% of his trips to the dish. That’s the 14th-highest rate among the 159 players with 1000+ plate appearances in that time. As a result, Canha’s on-base percentage is nearly sixty points higher than the league-wide mark over that span.

That ability to reach base may be Canha’s only standout skill, but it’s a highly valuable one for a Mets’ club that ranked sixteenth with a .321 mark this past season (excluding pitchers). And while Canha may not be elite at anything else, he’s a generally solid all-around player. His strikeout rates over the past few years have typically been a bit lower than the league marks. He owns a .189 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) since the start of 2019, which is slightly above par. Canha has done all that in one of the game’s more pitcher-friendly home environments, and his overall offense over the past three seasons checks in 29 percentage points above league average after accounting for park effects.

Canha was off to an especially promising start in 2021. In 325 plate appearances through June 25, he hit .255/.375/.450 with 11 homers. He suffered a left hip strain that landed him on the injured list at that point, an injury from which he didn’t seem to fully recover. While Canha returned in mid-July, he slumped to a .206/.340/.319 line over his final 300 plate appearances. A glance at his batted ball metrics seems to support that narrative. Canha’s average exit velocity before his IL stint sat at a solid 89 MPH; over his final few months, that mark dropped to 85.5 MPH.

The Mets are clearly of the belief that Canha’s power and overall offensive output will return to peak levels after an offseason to recover. His reported $13.25MM average annual value comes in a touch higher than MLBTR’s two-year, $24MM projected guarantee. Still, it’s a reasonable price for a player of Canha’s caliber and the Mets aren’t taking on much long-term risk. Canha turns 33 years old in February, capping the length of offers teams were willing to put forth.

Canha joins Brandon Nimmo as locks for regular playing time in the New York outfield next season. The Mets have various others who could play their way into the mix. Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis could get bumped from a crowded infield mix into outfield work, while Dominic Smith, Khalil Lee and recent big league signee Nick Plummer could also see action. Still, there are enough moving parts that new GM Billy Eppler and his staff could continue to look for upgrades. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that New York still isn’t ruling themselves out of the market for free agent center fielder Starling Marte, for instance.

The specific breakdown of Canha’s deal has yet to be reported, but it’s likely to be another fairly significant addition to the Mets’ 2022 books. If both the Escobar and Canha deals were paid out evenly over the next two seasons, New York’s 2022 payroll would be pushing $207MM in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. The Mets’ estimated luxury tax commitments, meanwhile, are now up around $210MM (both figures including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players).

It’s not entirely clear how far owner Steve Cohen is willing to push payroll, but it seem very likely they’ll at least be above this past season’s $195MM mark. Both Cohen and Eppler have talked about having ample financial flexibility, and the Mets remain on the hunt for additions to a rotation that has already lost Noah Syndergaard and could see Marcus Stroman depart. It’s already been an active first few days for Eppler in Queens, and it seems likely the Mets will continue to be busy as they try to snap a five-year playoff drought.

As for Canha’s former club, the A’s never seemed especially likely to make a strong run at bringing him back. Oakland is expected to conduct a significant roster overhaul this winter, with ownership seemingly mandating a drastic reduction in payroll. The A’s didn’t make Canha an $18.4MM qualifying offer, and shelling out a multi-year deal at an eight-figure annual salary would’ve registered as a major surprise.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mets and Canha were nearing an agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported a two-year, $26.5MM guarantee had been agreed upon. Sherman also reported the presence of a 2024 option, which Jon Heyman of the MLB Network specified was a club option. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported the salary breakdown of Canha’s contract.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Free Agent Notes: Marte, Castellanos, Lorenzen, Canha

By | at

Starling Marte is the clear top option in this winter’s free agent center field class. Unsurprisingly, early interest seems to be robust, as Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports (Twitter links) that both the Marlins and Mets have expressed interest in the 33-year-old. Those NL East clubs join the Yankees and division-rival Phillies as known entrants in his market. There are no doubt other clubs who have or will express interest in Marte, who’s coming off a stellar .308/.381/.456 showing between Miami and the A’s.

Miami’s early interest is eyebrow-raising, since he and the Marlins couldn’t agree to terms during midseason extension negotiations this summer. Reports suggested the Fish balked at offering a fourth guaranteed year a few months back, and going to that length again figures to be necessary to land Marte’s services now that he can field offers from all 30 clubs. It’s not as if his stock tanked after the deal, as Marte continued to be an offensive force (.312/.355/.462 with 25 stolen bases in just 56 games) for Oakland down the stretch. MLBTR projects he’ll ultimately land a four-year deal worth $80MM, a figure that would come in quite a bit higher than the money Marte reportedly targeted in original extension talks.

The Mets, meanwhile, are still trying to finalize the structure of their front office. That could pose a challenge for them in making any impactful moves early in the winter, but whomever the Mets hire to lead baseball operations is expected to look for some form of outfield help. Michael Conforto has already rejected New York’s qualifying offer, and his potential departure would leave a vacancy in the grass in Flushing. A Marte pursuit would be one way to replace Conforto, with current center fielder Brandon Nimmo probably sliding over to right field were a deal to get done.

Some news on a few more free agents:

  • Nick Castellanos has already rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer, little more than a formality after he opted out of the remaining two years on his contract. The 29-year-old wouldn’t close the door on a return to Cincinnati, though, telling reporters (including Adam Baum of the Cincinnati Enquirer) he’d listen to any offers from the Reds. “Of course I would. Why wouldn’t I,” Castellanos asked rhetorically. “I feel like there’s still a lot of valuable pieces that are very good to win with. Jonathan India … Jesse Winker is coming into his own, figuring out who he is, figuring out what kind of father he wants to be, he’s doing a great job at that. Joey Votto just reinvented himself. We still have pitching. We have pieces. Why wouldn’t I entertain it?” Regardless of Castellanos’ amenability, a Reds’ return seems highly unlikely. Cincinnati has kicked off the offseason by parting ways with two veteran contributors (Tucker Barnhart and Wade Miley) for little more than financial relief, and general manager Nick Krall has spoken of “(aligning) our payroll to our resources.” It’d be nothing short of shocking if Cincinnati then pivoted to make a serious run at Castellanos, whom MLBTR projects to sign for $115MM over five years.
  • California natives Michael Lorenzen and Mark Canha are both drawing interest from teams on the West Coast, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). Interestingly, Murray hears that at least some teams are willing to consider Lorenzen as a starting pitcher, aligning with the 29-year-old’s hopes for a rotation job. Lorenzen broke into the majors as a starter, but he’s started just five of his 268 appearances with the Reds since the beginning of the 2016 campaign. He’s had success in a multi-inning relief capacity, though, and Lorenz’s five-pitch repertoire could help him navigate an order multiple times. Canha, who has spent his entire major league career with his hometown A’s, hits the open market on the heels of four straight above-average offensive seasons, by measure of wRC+. Entering his age-33 season, the productive outfielder will probably be limited to short-term deals, which could make him a target of low and high payroll clubs alike.

A’s Loaded Arbitration Class Will Lead To Some Tough Decisions

By | at

The Athletics are squarely in the mix for the second American League Wild Card and, with six remaining games against the first-place Astros still on the schedule, are still alive in the division chase in the American League West as well. Oakland currently trails Houston by four and a half games, so with 28 games left to play, there’s time for a surge to overtake the current leaders.

Oakland’s proximity to a division title and their (at the time) status as a team in possession of the second Wild Card spot surely emboldened the team to go for it at this year’s trade deadline. The acquisition of Andrew Chafin was a solid addition to an already-sound bullpen, but it was the team’s trade for Starling Marte that really grabbed headlines. That’s in part due to Marte’s status as one of the more prominent names on the summer trade market but also due to the fact that Oakland parted with longtime top prospect Jesus Luzardo — five years of control over him to be exact — in exchange for a rental player who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

At the time of the trade, I touched on this a bit, but it’s a concept  that bears a bit more detail. The Athletics have every reason to act aggressively on the trade deadline this summer, because barring a major uptick in the team’s typically thrifty payroll, this could be something of a last hurrah for the current Oakland core.

The A’s don’t have much on the payroll next season — just Elvis Andrus $14MM salary (of which the Rangers are paying $7.25MM) and Stephen Piscotty’s $7.25MM salary. The A’s have a $4MM club option on Jake Diekman that comes with a $750K buyout as well. Most clubs would probably pick that up given his strong season, but it’s at least feasible that given the forthcoming payroll crunch that will be laid out here shortly, the A’s could pass on it.

Those minimal contractual guarantees look nice at first glance, but the Athletics have an enormous arbitration class on the horizon — and it’s not just large in terms of volume. It’s a talented and experienced group of players featuring the majority of Oakland’s most recognizable names: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Deolis Guerra, Burch Smith and (depending on his final service time numbers) perhaps Adam Kolarek. Of that bunch, Manaea and Bassitt are up for their final arbitration raises — the former as a Super Two player. Chapman, Olson, Montas and Trivino are getting their second raises.

I wanted to better ascertain just how expensive a class this is going to be for the Athletics, so I reached out to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for some help. Matt created MLBTR’s Arbitration Projection model, and I asked if he’d be able to put together some projections for the Athletics’ class based on the seasons they’ve had to date. Matt did just that, tacking on each player’s rest-of-season projections from the Steamer projection system to their actual production to date, coming up with the following projections:

  • Matt Olson: $11.8MM
  • Sean Manaea: $10.1MM
  • Matt Chapman: $9.8MM
  • Chris Bassitt: $8.9MM
  • Frankie Montas: $4.8MM
  • Lou Trivino: $3.0MM
  • Ramon Laureano: $2.8MM
  • Chad Pinder: $2.7MM
  • Tony Kemp: $1.8MM
  • Burch Smith: $1MM
  • Deolis Guerra: $900K
  • Adam Kolarek: $800K

(One caveat on the projections themselves: these raises are determined using the 2021 model and standard inflation for the 2022 season. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed not to use 2021 arbitration raises as precedent-setters because of the anomalous nature of last year’s short-season data.)

In all, it’s a projected total of $58.4MM. Add that to the combined salaries of Andrus and Piscotty, and the A’s are up to $72.4MM — $76.4MM if they exercise the option on Diekman. That’s what they’d owe to just 15 players. There are some possible non-tenders in there (Smith and Kolarek, certainly), but for the most part, all of the major names should be expected to be tendered. We don’t know precisely what next year’s minimum salary will be due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement, but even filling out the roster with players earning this year’s minimum would take them up to nearly $80MM — about $6MM shy of their current payroll.

Of course, we know that you can’t simply supplement this group with pre-arbitration players, because the rest of the current roster isn’t made up of pre-arb players. The A’s currently stand to lose not only Marte but also Mark Canha, Yan Gomes, Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Jed Lowrie, Mitch Moreland, Josh Harrison, Mike Fiers and Khris Davis to free agency. Replace that group with readily available, in-house options and you’re probably not looking at a playoff team — certainly not with the Mariners, Angels and Rangers both looking to improve their rosters this winter, making for even tougher competition within the division.

The A’s have never carried an Opening Day payroll greater than $92MM, per Cot’s Contracts — their prorated 2020 payroll may have gotten there — so an arbitration class worth more than $55MM is an immensely expensive group for ownership. Some of this crunch could be alleviated by trying to find a taker for Andrus and/or Piscotty, though moving either player might necessitate the A’s paying some of the freight (or taking a lesser contract in return). As previously mentioned, some non-tenders could get the bottom-line number down as well.

It’s always possible, too, that ownership simply bites the bullet and pays up for a franchise-record payroll. We haven’t seen that level of spending in the past, though, and this is the same A’s team that only agreed to pay its minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend after considerable public relations backlash during last summer’s pandemic — a move that only cost them about a million dollars. The A’s also had the Marlins foot the bill for all of Marte’s remaining salary. Perhaps that was in preparation for a payroll hike this winter, but that’d be a rather charitable interpretation when history and precedent tell us this is a team that is already pushing the upper levels of its comfort from a payroll standpoint.

All of this is to say: the Athletics certainly have the look of a team that is going to have to make some tough decisions this winter. They can either take payroll to new heights, look to move Andrus and/or Piscotty (which would likely mean attaching a prospect and further depleting a thin farm), or listen to offers on some names who’ve become staples on the roster.

Parting with a starter such as Manaea or Bassitt would be difficult, but both are slated to become free agents following the 2022 season. Both Chapman and Olson have two arbitration raises left, which means both are going to be owed a raise on top of that already sizable arbitration projection following the ’22 campaign. Both are on a path toward $15MM-plus salaries in 2023 — especially if Chapman is able to maintain his recent surge at the plate and return to his pre-hip surgery levels of offensive output.

Whatever route the Athletics ultimately decide to take, the organization and its fans are in for a good bit of change this winter. That could mean changes to the payroll or changes to the composition of a core group of players who’ve been quite successful since coming together a few years back. Regardless of which path they choose, it’s understandable that the A’s opted to be aggressive at this year’s deadline; with Canha, Marte and several relievers set for free agency and a huge arbitration class that could force some financially-motivated trades, this looks like the current group’s best and perhaps final chance to make a deep playoff run together.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top