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Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly Aiming For Mid-August Return

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Merrill Kelly had a stellar 2.19 ERA over his first four starts of the season before a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder sent him to the Diamondbacks’ injured list on April 20.  Kelly was soon moved from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL, and now that his 60-day window has passed, it will be quite a while before the right-hander is back on the mound.

Speaking at a Q&A event with fans and media (including Jake Oliver of Inside The Diamondbacks), Kelly said that “in my mind, I’m hoping I’m on that Tampa, Miami, Boston trip,” referring to a nine-game Diamondbacks road trip that starts on August 16.  “That seems to be around the right time I might be back in there, but obviously, things can change as we go along.”

There is still a lot of fluidity within this rehab plan, and the fact that Kelly’s initial estimated return date has already been significantly pushed back isn’t a great sign.  As Kelly noted, he and the team first thought he could be back around the All-Star break — if mid-August now represents perhaps something of a best-case scenario, any kind of setback could quite possibly put his season in jeopardy.  There is still a long way to go in Kelly’s ramp-up process, as he only just started a throwing program with games of catch.

The D’Backs have a modest 38-40 record in the defense of their National League pennant, yet the NL’s parity has kept Arizona within two games of the last wild card spot.  Considering that the Snakes have been without Kelly for most of the season, Eduardo Rodriguez for the entire season, and Zac Gallen for a little more than three weeks, a 38-40 record isn’t a bad result for a team missing its three top starters.

Gallen could potentially return next week, and Rodriguez has started his own throwing progression after his long layoff, so he might be facing a similar timeline as Kelly.  If Arizona can continue to at least tread water in the playoff race until mid-August, getting Kelly and Rodriguez back into the rotation would provide an enormous boost down the stretch.

Kelly also discussed his longer-term career future as part of the Q&A, saying “I’d love to be a Diamondback my whole career and especially being the Arizona native, I would love to stay here as long as I can.”  Kelly also revealed that he had spoken with the Diamondbacks about a possible contract extension, saying “I keep trying to sign and keep trying to talk them into signing me some more,” though he didn’t give any details on the status of those talks or if the D’Backs had shown any reciprocal interest.

It would be understandable if the D’Backs first wanted to see how Kelly emerge from this long injury layoff before considering a new contract, plus Kelly is already under team control for the 2025 season via a $7MM club option.  Since a $1MM buyout is attached to that option, that the $6MM decision seems like a pretty easy one for the Diamondbacks to make even despite Kelly’s shoulder problems, considering how well he has pitched over his six seasons in Arizona.

Kelly didn’t make his MLB debut until he was 30 years old, as he started his pro career in the Rays’ farm system before pitching in South Korea for four seasons.  Impressed by Kelly’s KBO League performance, the D’Backs signed him to a two-year, $5.5MM free agent deal in December 2018, in a decision that will go down as one of GM Mike Hazen’s shrewdest moves.  Kelly has already signed one extension with the Diamondbacks, agreeing to his current two-year, $18MM contract in April 2022.

D-Backs Acquire Matt Bowman From Twins

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The Diamondbacks announced they’ve acquired reliever Matt Bowman from the Twins for cash considerations. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported the move (on X) shortly before the announcement. Arizona optioned southpaw Blake Walston to Triple-A Reno in a corresponding active roster transaction. Starter Merrill Kelly moved from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list to clear 40-man roster space.

Bowman, 32, inked a minor league deal with Minnesota over the winter. The Twins selected his contract in the second week of the regular season. Bowman pitched five times, tossing 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball. He struck out six and issued four walks before being designated for assignment when the Twins welcomed Jhoan Duran back from the injured list. Bowman is out of options, so the Twins didn’t have the luxury of sending him back to Triple-A once they called him up.

A Princeton graduate, Bowman pitched for the Cardinals and Reds between 2016-19. He turned in three sub-4.00 ERA showings along the way, generally relying on huge ground-ball numbers to compensate for middling strikeout tallies. Injuries — most notably a September 2020 Tommy John procedure — kept Bowman out of game action for the next few years. He returned to health in Triple-A with the Yankees a year ago.

Bowman had a solid run for New York’s Triple-A affiliate. He posted a 3.99 ERA behind a 51.9% grounder percentage over 58 2/3 frames. The Yankees called him to the majors for a trio of appearances in September before waiving him at the end of the season.

Arizona is willing to install Bowman into the middle relief group. They’ll send cash Minnesota’s way to jump the waiver line. While Bowman doesn’t have much recent MLB experience because of the injuries, he’d gotten out to a strong start with Minnesota’s top farm team. He worked six innings and allowed only one unearned run with Triple-A St. Paul, striking out seven against a pair of walks.

The Diamondbacks have had a below-average relief group through the season’s first month. They entered play Thursday ranked 20th in ERA (4.34) and 28th in strikeout rate (18.7%). Arizona relievers have the fifth-highest walk percentage (11.3%) and have needed to shoulder the ninth-most innings.

The group was put under particular stress this week. After the now famous bee incident delayed Tuesday’s game, the D-Backs scratched Jordan Montgomery and used seven relievers to get through a bullpen game. Montgomery started yesterday but was knocked out after just three innings, requiring three more relievers (including a 3 2/3 inning stint from Walston in his MLB debut). Bowman adds a fresh arm to the middle innings.

Kelly suffered a shoulder strain that’ll require a lengthy absence. Manager Torey Lovullo was recently noncommittal on getting him back before the All-Star Break. He’s now out for a minimum of 60 days from the time of his original IL placement on April 20. He’s at least out of MLB action until mid-June.

Merrill Kelly Expected To Miss More Than A Month

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The Diamondbacks placed Merrill Kelly on the 15-day injured list this evening due to a shoulder strain. After tonight’s 14-1 drubbing of the Cardinals, manager Torey Lovullo said the Snakes expected Kelly to be out for an extended stretch.

“We’re not looking in terms of weeks as what we had hoped for,” Lovullo admitted (link via Theo Mackie of AZ Central). “So I think the next step up is a month, more than that.” While the manager said that surgery is not under consideration, he was noncommittal when asked if Kelly would be back before the All-Star Break.

It’s another hit to a rotation that’s already without Eduardo Rodriguez until at least the end of May. Arizona’s biggest offseason signee suffered a lat strain in Spring Training. A recent setback resulted in a move to the 60-day IL. The D-Backs subsequently signed Jordan Montgomery to offset some of the impact of losing Rodriguez, yet Kelly’s absence adds more uncertainty to what is arguably the team’s weakest area: rotation depth.

Zac Gallen, Montgomery and Brandon Pfaadt will hold the top three spots. Ryne Nelson opened the season in the rotation before taking a comebacker off his elbow and landing on the IL last week. Slade Cecconi and Tommy Henry seem like the top options for the #4/5 spots until Nelson returns. There’s very little experience behind them. Cristian Mena and Blake Walston are on the 40-man roster but have yet to make their MLB debuts. Humberto Castellanos and Konnor Pilkington have limited big league experience and are in the organization as non-roster players at Triple-A Reno.

No one from that group can be expected to come particularly close to matching Kelly’s reliability. The veteran righty has allowed fewer than 3.40 earned runs per nine while reaching 30 starts in each of the past two seasons. He’d gotten out to another excellent April, working to a 2.19 ERA in his first 24 2/3 frames.

The defending NL champs have had a pedestrian start overall, posting a 12-13 record. They’ll hope a talented lineup keeps them in the playoff mix until their rotation gets closer to full strength. Rodriguez and Kelly could be back well in advance of deadline season, but an extended absence from one or both may increase the pressure on the front office to upgrade the starting pitching this summer.

D-Backs Recall Tommy Henry, Place Merrill Kelly On IL

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April 23: The Diamondbacks announced today that they have recalled Henry as well as left-hander Andrew Saalfrank. Kelly has been placed on the 15-day IL due to a right shoulder strain while righty Miguel Castro also landed on the IL, with his ailment listed as right shoulder inflammation. Kelly’s move is retroactive to April 20 and Castro’s to April 21.

April 22: The Diamondbacks will recall left-hander Tommy Henry from Triple-A Reno to start tomorrow evening’s game against the Cardinals, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Theo Mackie of AZ Central). Arizona optioned Henry five days ago. Pitchers need to stay on optional assignment for at least 15 days unless they’re recalled to replace a player who is going on the injured list, so Arizona will need to make an IL move tomorrow.

Lovullo confirmed that the “most likely” option would be placing Merrill Kelly on the 15-day IL, although the skipper noted that one of Arizona’s relievers could land on the shelf instead. Kelly was recently sent for imaging on his shoulder after suffering some kind of injury to his teres major muscle. The 35-year-old righty was scratched from his scheduled start yesterday as a result.

If Kelly hits the IL, he’ll join Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryne Nelson on the shelf. Jordan Montgomery made his team debut last Friday and tossed six solid innings against the Giants. Montgomery’s presence becomes all the more meaningful if Kelly is out, as Arizona’s staff otherwise looks very thin behind Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt. The D-Backs brought up Slade Cecconi to take Kelly’s start yesterday. Henry would seem the choice for the final spot, although he hasn’t had a great start to the year.

The Michigan product has taken the ball four times. Over 18 1/3 innings, he’s given up 15 runs (14 of them earned) on 25 hits. Henry has walked eight (9% rate) while striking out 18 (20.8%). The 26-year-old has worked as a depth starter over the past three years. In 154 1/3 frames covering 30 appearances — roughly the equivalent of one full season — Henry has allowed 4.84 earned runs per nine with worse than average strikeout and walk rates.

Kelly has continued to excel in his sixth season in Arizona. Over his first four starts, he owns a 2.19 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. Kelly hasn’t posted an ERA above 3.37 since 2021. He missed a couple weeks last season with calf inflammation but reached the 30-start threshold for a second straight year. Kelly topped 150 frames each season between 2021-23.

NL West Notes: Kelly, Buehler, Cobb

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Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly was scratched from his start in San Francisco this afternoon, with Kelly telling Steve Gilbert of MLB.com that he’s suffering from an injury involving his teres major strain. Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic adds that, per manager Torey Lovullo, Kelly has already undergone an MRI and is going to head back to Phoenix to be evaluated by team doctors. Piecoro adds that the club remains hopeful that the veteran hurler can avoid a stint on the injured list.

Missed time for Kelly would be a serious blow to the Diamondbacks’ rotation, which has already been without veteran southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez to this point in a season due to a lat strain. Losing Kelly, who sports a 3.26 ERA and 3.75 FIP over 67 starts dating back to the 2022 campaign, would compound the loss of Rodriguez and right-hander Ryne Nelson, who was placed on the injured list with a right elbow contusion last week. Kelly’s start this afternoon will instead go to right-hander Slade Cecconi, who posted a 4.33 ERA and 4.37 FIP in 27 innings of work for Dbacks last year.

If Kelly misses more than just today’s start, the club would likely need a fifth starter to go along with Cecconi, Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery, and Brandon Pfaadt. One possible option could be left-hander Tommy Henry, who has pitched 154 1/3 innings of work across 30 appearances with the Diamondbacks since his debut in 2022 but has generally struggled in those appearances. While he posted a roughly league average ERA of 4.15 with the club last year, he allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in just 18 1/3 innings across four starts in the majors this year and holds a career ERA in the big leagues of 4.84 with a 5.18 FIP.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Dodgers are having some rotation issues of their own, with Bobby Miller, Kyle Hurt, and Emmet Sheehan all joining arms such as Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin on the shelf in recent weeks. Of the club’s many injured starters, right-hander Walker Buehler appears to be the only one nearing a return, though even he won’t be an immediate solution to the club’s rotation puzzle. As noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, manager Dave Roberts recently told reporters that Buehler will make at least one more rehab start before returning to the big league club. Said start is scheduled for Wednesday, meaning the earliest Buehler could be expected to pitch in the majors would be April 29. In the meantime, the club figures to lean on right-hander Landon Knack to fill out the rotation alongside Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, James Paxton, and Gavin Stone.
  • The Giants placed right-hander Alex Cobb on the 60-day IL yesterday after the right-hander suffered a setback in his rehab from hip surgery earlier this week. While that news initially appeared to be somewhat ominous, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area relays this afternoon that manager Bob Melvin told reporters that it’s “realistic” that Cobb could be activated as soon as he’s first eligible to return on May 27. That’s great news for San Francisco, as the club has leaned on Cobb more than any pitcher besides Logan Webb since he joined the club on a two-year deal prior to the 2022 season. In that time, he’s made 56 starts for the Giants while pitching to a 3.80 ERA with an even stronger 3.41 FIP. Young righty Keaton Winn has filled out the club’s rotation alongside Webb, Blake Snell, Kyle Harrison, and Jordan Hicks while Cobb has been out of commission.

NL West Notes: Kelly, Pham, Dodgers, Padres, Preller

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Merrill Kelly’s gem of an outing in Game 2 has made him the talk of baseball, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal took a look back at the right-hander’s unique path to the World Series stage.  Beginning his career in the Rays’ farm system, Kelly signed with the KBO League’s SK Wyverns and spent four seasons pitching in South Korea, despite feeling an urge to return to North American baseball halfway through that stint.  Still, pitching in the KBO League sparked Kelly’s career to the point that Diamondbacks had interest in a free agent deal during the 2018-19 offseason, and Kelly signed a two-year, $5.5MM deal with club options attached for 2021 and 2022.

This was the only multi-year offer Kelly received that winter, so he jumped at the chance at some extra security as he made his MLB debut at age 30.  Between that initial contract and a subsequent extension signed prior to the 2022 season, Kelly’s time in Arizona has now included five seasons, at least $32.5MM in guaranteed salary, and now a key role in the postseason.  Kelly has a 2.25 ERA over four starts and 24 innings in these playoffs, and holds an interesting distinction as the first pitcher to earn a win in both the Korean Series (helping the Wyverns capture the 2018 title) and the World Series.

Some more from around the NL West….

  • Before the Diamondbacks picked up Tommy Pham from the Mets at the trade deadline, the Dodgers were known to be one of several other teams who considered acquiring the veteran outfielder.  Pham told Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times that he wanted to join the Dodgers last offseason, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman twice turned down overtures from Pham’s agent, as L.A. was focused on adding a left-handed hitting outfielder instead.  David Peralta ended up being that lefty swinging outfielder, and while Peralta had a subpar season, Pham hit .256/.328/.446 over 481 combined PA with the Mets and D’Backs this season.  Pham has continued to contribute during Arizona’s playoff run, including a four-hit night in Game 2 of the World Series.
  • A.J. Preller’s management style as the Padres’ president of baseball operations has come under increased criticism due to the team’s disappointing 2023 season, as well as the reported discord between Preller and now-former manager Bob Melvin.  Preller spoke with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters about what he is looking for in hiring the Padres’ next skipper, with Acee adding details and anecdotes within the piece related to Preller’s approach, his (to some, overbearing) attention to detail, and the communication breakdown that occurred between Preller and Melvin over the last year.

Diamondbacks Designate José Ruiz For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks announced that they have reinstated right-hander Merrill Kelly from the injured list, with righty José Ruiz designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Their 40-man roster count drops to 39.

Ruiz, 28, began the year with the White Sox but was lit up for nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings before being designated for assignment. That was obviously a small sample and Ruiz had fared better in prior campaigns. Coming into this year, he had a 4.17 ERA in 174 appearances, striking out 23% of opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 40.6% clip, though his 11.1% walk rate was on the high side.

The Diamondbacks decided to ignore the early results from this year and bank on that track record, sending cash considerations to the White Sox in order to skip the waiver queue. Ruiz has gone on to throw 40 2/3 innings for the Snakes this year with a 4.43 ERA, along with a 19.8% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 42.4% ground ball rate. That’s obviously an improvement over how his season started but still fairly uninspiring overall. He’s also been struggling of late, with an 8.22 ERA in 7 2/3 innings since the calendar flipped to July, which surely helped to nudge him off the roster. Ruiz is out of options, so the only way for the club to open a spot for Kelly was to designate him for assignment.

The D’Backs will now have one week to trade Ruiz or pass him through waivers. Players with more than three years of service time or a previous career outright have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, with Ruiz qualifying on both accounts. However, since he has less than five years of service time, he would have to forfeit his remaining salary in order to exercise that right. He and the White Sox avoided arbitration with an agreement for a $925K salary for this season, which is a bit above the $720K minimum this year. In the event he clears waivers, he might decide to accept an assignment to Triple-A Reno instead of leaving money on the table.

Kelly returns to the rotation after missing almost a month due to calf inflammation. He slots in next to Zac Gallen, Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry and Brandon Pfaadt for now, though general Mike Hazen has stated the club will be looking for upgrades. They’ve recently been connected to high-profile pitchers like Lucas Giolito and Shohei Ohtani, though the next week will determine whether or not they can be successful in those pursuits. The deadline in on August 1.

Diamondbacks Place Merrill Kelly On IL, Option Joe Mantiply

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The Diamondbacks announced a series of roster moves today, with right-hander Merrill Kelly being placed on the 15-day injured list due to right calf inflammation, retroactive to June 25. They also optioned left-hander Joe Mantiply to Triple-A Reno. In corresponding moves, righties Kevin Ginkel and Justin Martinez were recalled from Reno.

At this point, it’s unclear how serious Kelly’s injury is, but it’s a notable loss for the club nonetheless. The Diamondbacks have a fairly top-heavy rotation with Kelly and Zac Gallen being the two most effective members. Gallen has an excellent 2.84 ERA on the year and Kelly isn’t far behind with a 3.22 mark. Then there’s a notable drop to the 4.31 ERA of Tommy Henry, the 4.97 of Ryne Nelson and the 7.82 of Zach Davies.

The Diamondbacks are leading the National League West but have a couple of clubs on their heels as each of the Dodgers and Giants are within three games. With the All-Star break now effectively two weeks away, they will have to forge ahead without Kelly for at least that long. Drey Jameson has been with the big league club in a long relief role and could perhaps step into the rotation. Brandon Pfaadt got some big league starts earlier this year but posted an 8.37 ERA in those before getting optioned back down. Konnor Pilkington is also on the 40-man but has been struggling in the minors this year.

As for Mantiply, he posted a 2.85 ERA last year and even got selected to the All-Star game but has taken a step back this year. He’s gone on the injured list a couple of times already, once due to left shoulder inflammation and another time for a right hamstring strain. Around those ailments, he’s tossed 15 2/3 innings with a 5.74 ERA. His peripherals are still pretty similar to last year’s as a 50.8% strand rate seems to be pushing his ERA up. Nonetheless, he now finds himself headed to Reno to get into a groove.

Martinez, 21, will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. He served largely as a starting pitcher in the lower levels of the minors but required Tommy John surgery in 2021. After a long injury layoff and the minor leagues getting cancelled by the pandemic in 2020, he came back as a reliever last year. He tossed 38 innings across four different levels, finishing the year at Triple-A. He posted a 3.32 ERA in that time with an incredible 36.7% strikeout rate but 13% walk rate.

Despite the free passes, the club was intrigued enough to add him to the roster in November to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. This year, he’s been in Triple-A, tossing 28 innings thus far. He has a 4.18 ERA, striking out 29.7% of opponents but with an astonishing 21.1% walk rate. Despite the control issues, he was recently ranked the club’s #21 prospect at Baseball America and #12 at FanGraphs.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Looking At The Diamondbacks’ Rotation Options

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It’s been a rough few years for the Diamondbacks. After making the playoffs in 2017 and then posting respectable records above .500 in the two following seasons, the last three campaigns have seen their fortunes sink. They finished last in the National League West in 2020 and 2021, then surpassed the Rockies last year for a fourth place finish. During that time, the Dodgers, Giants and Padres have all had strong seasons, making the efforts of the D-Backs feel particularly hopeless. In 2021, they finished 52-110 and 55 games out in the division.

2022 was a step in the right direction, though, and there are some exciting ingredients in place. The position player mix seems to have a lot of good momentum behind it. Even after dealing Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays, the outfield should feature a crop of exciting youngsters, headlined by Corbin Carroll but with Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy also in the mix. On the infield, Ketel Marte is capable of MVP-level production when healthy and at his best. Christian Walker is underrated at first base while shortstop Jordan Lawlar and catcher Gabriel Moreno are considered some of the best prospects in the league.

However, the pitching staff is a bit more precarious at the moment. In 2022, the position players posted a cumulative tally of 19.8 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs, good enough for 15th place in the majors. But the pitchers posted a total of 7.7 fWAR, ranking them 27th. If the team is to re-emerge and start contending again, they will need to get better results from the mound. There were some potentially encouraging developments in their rotation in 2022, but still some uncertainty going forward into 2023.

It’s possible that the club will make further additions via free agency but it’s also possible that they’re done. The club’s payroll is now at $113MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. They’ve been as high as $132MM in the past, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they were at just $91MM last year. That means they’ve already boosted the budget by more than $20MM. For now, let’s take a look at the in-house options, starting with the four veterans.

Zac Gallen

Gallen, 27, seemed to emerge as an ace in 2019 and 2020, making 27 starts with a 2.78 ERA. He had a swoon in 2021, dealing with various injuries and his ERA jumped to 4.30, but he was back in form last year. In 2022, he made 31 starts and logged 184 innings with a 2.54 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. He finished fifth in the voting for the National League Cy Young award and can be controlled via arbitration for three more seasons.

Merrill Kelly

Kelly, 34, parlayed a strong run in the KBO into a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2019 season. That deal also came with a pair of club options. Kelly pitched well enough that they triggered both options and then gave him an extension that runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025. Through four seasons with Arizona so far, he has a 3.96 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He’s certainly a notch below Gallen, but he’s a solid mid-rotation option for the club.

Madison Bumgarner

After spending over a decade with the Giants, Bumgarner came to the D-Backs prior to the 2020 season on a five-year, $85MM deal. Unfortunately, his results immediately took a nosedive after the uniform switch. He had a 3.13 career ERA in his time with the Giants but has posted a 4.98 mark in his three seasons as a Snake. His walk rate is still better than average but his strikeouts have vanished. He punched out 23.9% of opponents on his previous team but it’s been just a 17.7% rate for Arizona. Now 33 years old, it’s hard to expect a sudden bounceback, though the Diamondbacks might give him a chance to try since he still has two years and $37MM left on his deal. That gives him negative trade value at this point and it would be a lot of cash to eat for a Diamondbacks team that’s never been a top spender. However, his salary goes from $23MM this year to $14MM in 2024, which could make some kind of transaction more plausible if he can find better results in 2023.

Zach Davies

Davies, 30 in February, pitched for the D-Backs in 2022. He didn’t blow anyone away but he was passable enough. He made 27 starts with a 4.09 ERA. His 17.9% strikeout rate was a few ticks below average but his 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate were both right around league average. He used his five-pitch mix to keep hitters from doing damage, as his hard hit rate was in the 76th percentile among qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity was in the 75th. The club agreed to a new one-year deal with him yesterday, bringing him back to hopefully provide some steady production while they evaluate their younger pitchers.

Ryne Nelson

If those four pitchers are healthy and throwing well, there will be one spot remaining for a younger pitcher. Nelson will certainly be in that mix to secure the final job. He was selected by Arizona in the second round of the 2019 draft and has been considered one of the club’s better prospects since then. He even cracked Baseball America’s top 100 list of all prospects in the league going into 2022. Last year saw him spend most of his time with the Triple-A Reno Aces, who play in the Pacific Coast League. He made 26 starts for that club with a 5.43 ERA in what is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. His 21.6% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate were solid enough for him to get a major league debut in September. He made three starts in the big leagues with a 1.47 ERA, striking out 23.2% of batters faced while walking 8.7% of them. That’s a very small sample size but an encouraging one nonetheless. He’ll turn 25 in February and still has a full slate of options. He could certainly be sent back to Triple-A but an extended audition at the big leagues could be warranted as well.

Drey Jameson

Jameson and Nelson have a very similar trajectory to this point. Jameson was also selected in the 2019 draft, just ahead of Nelson by being selected between the first and second rounds, with the pick the club received for AJ Pollock signing with the Dodgers. Jameson began 2022 in Double-A but posted a 2.41 ERA in four starts and got quickly moved up to Triple-A. With the Aces, he posted a 6.95 ERA in 114 innings in that pitcher-hostile environment. However, his rate stats were decent, striking out 21.2% of hitters, walking 8.2% of them and getting grounders on 48.6% of balls in play. He also got called up to the big leagues in September, just like Nelson, making four starts with a 1.48 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 56.1% ground ball rate. Just like Nelson, he’ll be 25 years old this season and has a full slate of options. The two seem likely to be battling each other for the final rotation spot with one likely to be optioned, but they could also both be in the mix as soon as an injury pops up.

Tommy Henry

Just like Nelson and Jameson, Henry was also nabbed in the 2019 draft. He was selected in competitive balance round B, between the second and third rounds. He posted stronger Triple-A results than the other two last year, with a 3.74 ERA over 21 starts. However, his first taste of the big leagues didn’t go as smooth as he made nine starts with a 5.36 ERA, striking out just 17.6% of hitters while walking 10.2% of them. He’s also 25 and provides a third competitor in the battle for the last rotation job, but it’s possible he’s a bit behind Nelson and Jameson based on his weaker debut. He still has a full slate of options and could be in line for more work in the minors, ready to make the jump again when needed and ready.

Brandon Pfaadt

Pfaadt, 24, began 2022 in Double-A, making 19 starts and logging 105 1/3 innings there. His 4.53 ERA might not look special, but he posted that number despite striking out 32.2% of batters faced and walking just 4.3% of them. A .370 batting average on balls in play surely inflated that ERA to a level higher than he deserved, though 17.9% of his fly balls turning into home runs may have contributed as well. The D-Backs seemed to be willing to look past that ERA, bumping him to Triple-A in August. Pfaadt took very well to the move, despite the strong offensive environment. He tossed 61 2/3 innings over 10 starts for the Aces with a 2.63 ERA, 30.6% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. Based on that strong finish, he has surged up prospect rankings. He currently has the #83 slot at Baseball America, is #90 at MLB Pipeline, but FanGraphs is especially bullish and considers him the 25th best prospect in the league. He’s not yet on the club’s 40-man roster since he was only drafted in 2020 and isn’t Rule 5 eligible until this coming December, but he seems destined to make a big league debut well before then.

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When combined, there are some strong elements here for the D-Backs. Gallen gives them an ace and Kelly a solid piece for the middle of the rotation. Davies isn’t terribly exciting but is fine as a backend piece. Bumgarner’s contract is underwater at this point, but he could also be a solid backend guy if he puts the past three years behind him. Those four combined don’t give the club an especially strong rotation, but the four guys behind them give the overall group plenty of upside. If one or two of the young guys have a breakout in 2023, then the rotation picture starts to look much better.

The position player core in Arizona is heavily future-focused, with Carroll, Thomas, Marte, Moreno, Lawlar and others starting to develop into a strong core that could allow the club to continually improve over the coming seasons. With the rotation, the path forward could be very similar. Prospects aren’t sure things, especially when it comes to pitchers, but the Diamondbacks need to hit on young players if they’re not going to spend like the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. For now, there are signs of hope in the desert and the upcoming season will be a fascinating one to watch.

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