Reds Offense, Not The Bullpen, Responsible For Struggles In Close Games
The Reds bullpen crumbled down the stretch in 2019, but confidence remains high in their core group of high-impact relievers, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”
The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.
[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]
All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.
Closer Market Rumors: Diaz, Vazquez
The Mets have numerous top trade chips on the market right now, including marquee offseason acquisition Edwin Diaz. The talented young closer remains highly valuable despite his 4.95 ERA, though it’s likewise true that there’s little chance the Mets would be able to recoup what they gave up to get him over the winter. Beyond the fact that Diaz is now just months away from arbitration, the Mets simply paid a hefty fee for Diaz at the outset. In addition to parting with rising prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, the club took on $64MM in new salary (after netting out the cash and salaries exchanged).
While that’s a particularly painful price in retrospect, the New York organization must now think primarily about what it wants its roster and payroll to look like moving forward. The latest on Diaz and the rest of the closer market:
- Despite Diaz’s struggles in the earned-run department, there’s “significant” demand for his services, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). At present, the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Padres are teams with active interest. Several of those teams have been linked clearly to Diaz of late.
- While Rosenthal had also listed the Red Sox, who were connected yesterday to Diaz by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, it seems that possibility has already fizzed. That match “remains unlikely,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds Raisel Iglesias of the Reds and Shane Greene of the Tigers as other top relievers unlikely to end up in Boston. (Twitter link.) The Braves, on the other hand, do indeed still seem to be in pursuit of Diaz. Per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, via Twitter, the Mets have continued to examine the Atlanta farm. From the Braves’ side, it seems Diaz is the top target, with starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler of ongoing but lesser interest.
- If there’s a clear alternative to Diaz, it’s ace Pirates reliever Felipe Vazquez. The high-octane lefty has hit another gear in 2019, with 14.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 to go with his shiny 1.87 ERA on the season. We’ve seen him connected recently to the Dodgers, but there’s no indication the sides have momentum. Indeed, Rosenthal adds (in the above-linked column) that the Bucs are putting such a high price on Vazquez that he “essentially is not available.” That may be a bargaining ploy to see if a rival comes forward with a monster offer, but it’s certainly understandable that the Pirates aren’t just putting Vazquez up for auction. Rosenthal cites anonymous front office opinion that the Pittsburgh roster doesn’t have enough to compete in the near-term to justify keeping an asset such as Vazquez. That may well be the case, but it doesn’t mean the club should sell him short — particularly after seeing what the M’s were able to pry from the Mets for Diaz last winter.
Reds Willing To Entertain Offers On Raisel Iglesias
A pair of executives say the Reds are willing to listen to offers on closer Raisel Iglesias, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). The likelihood of a deal coming together isn’t clear at this point.
Iglesias, 29, has been one of the game’s more consistently effective closers for a few years now. But he’s mired in his worst season as a big leaguer. Meanwhile, the Reds’ hopes of maintaining competitiveness this year have taken a big hit over the past several weeks.
Through 43 innings on the season, Iglesias carries an unsightly 4.60 ERA. He does own a career-best 11.7 K/9, though he’s also dishing out too many walks (4.0 per nine) and long balls (1.9 per nine). That said, the 29-year-old is maintaining a career-best 15.6% swinging-strike rate and seems a candidate to bounce back if he can figure out how to get the home runsunder control.
Iglesias’s contract situation is also appealing. He’s earning $6MM this year with $9MM and $9.125MM guarantees for the ensuing two campaigns. That’s not especially cheap, but it’s quite a manageable rate of pay for an elite reliever — if that’s indeed how other organizations view him.
We’ve wondered in years past if the Reds would deal Iglesias, but the club has held its closer in hopes that the rest of the roster would catch up. There’s hope that high-leverage situations will have greater meaning in 2020, but perhaps also a sense that this could be an opportune moment to cash in on Iglesias. Several other quality relievers figure to be available, but the Giants’ run back into contention could also create a window for the Cincinnati organization to take advantage of a lack of supply.
Pitcher Notes: Scherzer, Bundy, Turnbull, Garrett, Alexander
With summer storms peppering much of the country today, we’ve got our own torrent of pitcher-related news to sort through. Out of D.C., we hear from MLB.com’s Jamal Collier that Nationals ace Max Scherzer threw 15 pitches off of a mound this afternoon (Twitter link). The superlative hurler has been dealing with inflammation in the bursa sac under his right shoulder blade and hasn’t appeared in a game since a seven-inning win against the Royals on July 6th. That Scherzer is throwing again–and could possibly throw another bullpen on Monday–is a sign that he apparently took well to a recent cortisone shot in his ailing back. Given the notoriously fickle nature of back injuries, the Nats are likely to be over the moon at this positive step in Scherzer’s recovery.
The latest on a few other waylaid hurlers…
- The Orioles’ Dylan Bundy will apparently come off the injured list as soon as he is eligible, with MLB.com’s Joe Trezza reporting that the righty will start Tuesday in Arizona (link). Bundy, who has never really delivered on the promise that was conferred upon him when he was selected 4th overall in the 2011 draft, has a 5.28 ERA and 5.32 FIP in 92 innings this year. He has been on the shelf since July 13th with right knee tendinitis.
- Chris McCosky of the Detroit News has reported on separate channels that Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull has suffered a back injury that will usher him to the IL. Apparently, Turnbull, who has put together a quietly effective 2019 campaign, experienced a strain during a workout Friday–a strain that persisted in a post-workout game of catch (Twitter link). In a subsequent piece, McCosky cogently points out that this injury could actually serve as a convenient means of limiting Turnbull’s innings–the 26-year-old was expected to pitch around 140 frames this year and had already logged 98.2 entering the weekend (link).
- Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Reds will welcome back two bullpen stalwarts with the activation of Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias from the injured list and paternity list, respectively (Twitter link). Garrett has been sidelined since July 4th with a left lat strain–an injury he presumably incurred from striking out most of the league this season en route to a 13.14 K/9 rate across 37 innings. To accommodate these moves, the Reds optioned righties Jimmy Herget and, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reported, Matt Bowman (link).
- In concerning news, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has relayed to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com that veteran reliever Scott Alexander has been shut down for foreseeable future with a “nerve and thumb problem” (link). Alexander has been solid in 17-plus innings for Los Angeles this year, but injuries have been a prominent theme. Originally sidelined in June with a forearm ailment, issues with Alexander’s thumb have subsequently followed, and this latest language regarding his nerve is certainly ominous from a medical perspective. The lefty has posted a 3.63 ERA on the season.
Reds Select Juan Graterol
The Reds announced that they’ve selected the contract of catcher Juan Graterol from Triple-A Louisville and placed closer Raisel Iglesias on the paternity list in a corresponding move to open a spot on the active roster. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster is now full.
Graterol, 30, was an October waiver claim by the Reds and was later retained after being outrighted off the 40-man roster. Regarded as a sound defensive backstop, he’s posted a .249/.301/.325 batting line in 226 plate appearances with the Reds’ top affiliate this season.
Cincinnati currently has Tucker Barnhart on the injured list, which has left Curt Casali and Kyle Farmer as the primary catchers. However, Casali has been a bit banged up in recent days and isn’t in the lineup today, so Graterol will likely be the backup to Farmer for the time being. In 111 MLB plate appearances, Graterol is a .217/.227/.274 hitter.
Quick Hits: Giants, Harper, Iglesias, Severino
Giants frontman Farhan Zaidi is still exploring trade opportunities, per Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter). The recent additions of Gerardo Parra, Craig Gentry, and Yangervis Solarte, after all, aren’t likely to form the backbone of the next World Series champion in the Bay. Still, they fit as puzzle pieces in Zaidi’s strategy to build the organization’s depth while maintaining future roster flexibility. They’re particularly high on Solarte, whom they see as a switch-hitter with above-average contact skills and 15-20 homer potential. His ability to play all over the field should keep him getting regular at-bats, Crowley writes in the Mercury News, and the Giants are optimistic about the potential returns. Per his word, Zaidi has focused on building depth and flexibility thus far, extending more than 20 invites to major league camp and avoiding any long-term roster obligations. Of course, Bryce Harper remains at large, and the Giants have emerged as a potential suitor. One would think Harper would be the type of foundational piece who could buoy the type of depth Zaidi is amassing, but Zaidi knows that even a talent like Harper isn’t a cure-all. For now, Harper remains one avenue among many open to Zaidi. In that sense, he fits Zaidi’s plan perfectly. Let’s check in on a couple other notes from around the league…
- New Reds manager David Bell won’t assign the “closer” label to Raisel Iglesias, as the Reds are buying the new fad gripping bullpens league-wide of role fluidity, per the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans. Put simply, the Reds plan on using Iglesias to help them win games. If that manifests itself through an appearance in the 7th or 8th, so be it. Still, the Reds anticipate Iglesias getting the bulk of save opportunities. Jared Hughes, David Hernandez and Amir Garrett could be called upon to close out games when Iglesias is unavailable. Traditional thinking has kept bullpen arms in well-defined roles in part because of the supposed psychological benefits of “knowing your role” – otherwise known as clear expectations. Bell and the Reds staff plan on communicating often with the bullpen crew, making sure that they are aware of their roles, even as those roles prove more dynamic than in year’s past.
- It’s probably better for players overall if Luis Severino and Aaron Nola go year-to-year through the arbitration process, writes Joel Sherman of the NY Post, but therein lies the quandary for players weighing the risk/reward of securing their own long-term futures against market growth. While setting high arbitration annuals and reaching free agency at the earliest possible moment might technically be the best thing for the player market overall, Severino’s prudent personal decision to lock-in the first significant payday of his career makes a lot of sense from a personal standpoint. His future value was always going to be vulnerable to injury or further uneven performance such as his struggles at the end of last season. The competing interests of individual security v. collective wealth is a disadvantage the players’ union will face continually in the lead up to CBA negotiations in 2021. Yasmani Grandal represents the best recent example of the other side of this issue, as he took a one-year deal over multi-year offers in part to keep establishing higher AAVs for catchers.
Reds Agree To Three-Year Deal With Raisel Iglesias
NOVEMBER 27: Iglesias will receive a $6MM salary in 2019, followed by $9MM and $9.125MM paydays, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).
NOVEMBER 21: The Reds announced today that they have agreed to a three-year deal with closer Raisel Iglesias. It will promise him $24.125MM, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter), but won’t expand the team’s control rights.
This is a fairly unusual contract agreement; though we have seen an increasing number of multi-year, arbitration-only deals, they are typically of shorter duration and in some cases give the team additional option years. In this case, though, Iglesias was playing under an unusual contract in the first place, having signed a deal that would no longer be permitted under MLB’s international rules.
Under his original contract, Iglesias had the right to exit the guaranteed portion of the deal and enter arbitration. He elected not to do so last year, but still had the right to turn down the $5MM payday he already had in hand for 2019.* Whether or not he’d have done so is not clear, but perhaps he’d have rolled the dice on boosting his salary both now and in the future. Certainly, barring a disastrous intervening campaign, it was highly likely he’d have elected to test the arb process in 2020.
Where things get confusing with this deal is the 2021 campaign, the final year covered. Under his original contract, which runs only through 2020, he did not obtain the right to elect free agency early. Accordingly, he’d already have been controlled through 2021 regardless of today’s extension. That distinguishes it in a critical way from, say, the recent extensions secured by Brad Hand (link) and Felipe Vazquez (link).
In other words, this deal is all about resolving the salary uncertainty and fixing a price tag for Iglesias. The Reds will lock into a new payday to shave off some of the earning upside for Iglesias. Instead of the $10MM total he was promised over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, with the upside to earn more in those years and in particular in 2021, Iglesias will now secure an additional $14.125MM in guaranteed money. It’s certainly possible he could have earned more than that through arbitration, with good health and continued saves tallies, particularly if he had opted into arbitration this season and secured a big new starting point.
As part and parcel of the financial maneuvering, this move represents an indication that the Reds expect Iglesias not only to remain a productive reliever, but also to hold down the closer’s role. Saves, after all, are a key driver of reliever earnings in arbitration. Of course, it’s also still possible he’ll be shipped out to another organization, but this contract may also be intended in part as a commitment to a core player.
Iglesias, who’ll turn 29 before the start of the 2019 campaign, showed quite a bit of promise as a starter in his debut season of 2015. For reasons that remain somewhat unclear, he was bumped into the bullpen in the ensuing season and ultimately slid into the ninth inning. Iglesias has since mostly functioned as a traditional closer, with occasional multi-inning appearances but not enough to stand out.
Though it’s tantalizing to think of what might have been, Iglesias has thrived as a reliever. In 163 total appearances from the pen, he has compiled 201 innings of 2.42 ERA ball with 10.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9, picking up 64 saves along the way. He sits in the 96 mph range with his average fastball and still leans on both a change and curve. Iglesias has been utterly dominant against righties and solid-enough against left-handed hitters; in the aggregate he’s among the game’s more effective relievers.
*The original version of this post mistakenly stated that Iglesias had decided not to opt out of his 2019 guaranteed salary. In fact, he had only previously decided against doing so in 2018.
NL Central Notes: Iglesias, Cubs, Pirates
In the wake of Raisel Iglesias‘s newly-signed deal with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer suggests that Iglesias may operate in an altered role for the club in 2019, which may have been part of the team’s motivation to guarantee his salary for the next three seasons. Having worked as the Reds’ full-time closer for the previous two years, Iglesias may be utilized in a greater variety of game situations moving forward. Free of added pressure to eclipse certain statistical benchmarks as a means of boosting his arbitration salary, Iglesias may feel more comfortable pitching in non-save situations, allowing new manager David Bell to deploy his best bullpen weapon in a more versatile role. General manager Dick Williams acknowledged that getting Iglesias and team management on the same page was a factor in finalizing a new contract with his star reliever; now, Iglesias and the team can concern themselves solely with winning games, rather than worrying about the counting stats that influence arbitration salaries.
All this is not to say that Iglesias has struggled as a closer; in fact, he has excelled in the role, converting 58 of 64 save opportunities over the last two years and notching a 2.43 ERA over that span. Rather, this will simply grant Bell and new pitching coach Derek Johnson increased flexibility in their usage of Iglesias as they seek to maximize his value. It should be noted that Josh Hader, who often pitched multiple innings and entered in high-leverage situations regardless of inning, pitched under Johnson when he served as the Brewers’ pitching coach for the last three seasons.
More from around the NL Central…
- Following Jim Hickey’s departure from the team, the Cubs may have found a favorite to fill their vacant pitching coach position from within the organization. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that Tommy Hottovy, who currently serves as the club’s run prevention coordinator, has emerged as a leading candidate to seize the job, although no final decision has been made. Just 37, Hottovy has endeared himself to players and coaches up and down the organization, and his presence may help quell some of the uncertainty that comes with Hickey’s unexpected resignation. He has been touted for his communication skills and analytical inclination, and his working relationship with catching coach Mike Borzello has been cited as part of the reason for the team’s sustained pitching success despite coaching instability. Hottovy and Borzello have been credited with tapping into the potential of numerous pitchers over the years, fueling breakouts from Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, and others. Furthermore, he would provide a familiarity that President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein covets, much like newly-hired hitting coach Anthony Iapoce, who worked in the Cubs organization from 2013-15.
- The Pirates have hired Jacob Cruz to be their assistant hitting coach, writes Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Cruz previously worked as the Cubs’ minor-league hitting coordinator, a position he earned after joining the organization in 2017 as the Double-A hitting coach. Cruz’s departure represents yet another point of turnover for the Cubs’ coaching staff: the team will also need to fill the hole left by the departure of pitching coach Jim Hickey, who has chosen to step down for personal reasons. For the Pirates, Cruz will join new hitting coach Rick Eckstein in the club’s overhauled hitting department. Alongside Eckstein, he will look to hone the potential of Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco, among others, in order to reinvigorate an offense that ranked 10th in the National League in runs scored.
NL Central Rumors: Cubs, Tepera, Yates, Harvey, Duvall, Iglesias, Brewers
The Cubs are among the slew of teams continuing to monitor the market for bullpen upgrades, and they’ve “closely” scouted Blue Jays right-hander Ryan Tepera and Padres righty Kirby Yates, per Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score. Both relievers figure to come with a relatively high cost of acquisition, as Yates is controlled through the 2020 season, while Tepera is controlled all the way through 2021. Each is in the midst of a fine season, though Yates has been among the NL’s best relievers thanks largely to a newly adopted splitter that has been a wipeout offering in 2018. Tepera is sitting on a 3.71 ERA with nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in a tough AL East (and a tough home park, Toronto’s Rogers Centre). Both players are plenty affordable, with Tepera not yet eligible for arbitration until this offseason and Yates earning just $1.0625MM in his first trip through the arb process last winter.
Also on the Cubs front, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that while it should be considered a “long shot,” the Cubs can’t be ruled out as a candidate to add a controllable starting pitcher. Doing so would likely mean building a package around young infielder/outfielder Ian Happ, controlled through the 2023 season, or a similarly enticing young hitter. Happ, 24 in two weeks, has displayed plenty of promise this year with a .253/.375/.445 slash, but while he walks at an impressive 16.1 percent clip, he’s also punched out in more than 35 percent of his plate appearances.
Here’s more out of the division…
- The Reds haven’t gotten that much traction in their trade talks surrounding Matt Harvey, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman adds that the team feels Harvey has been a model teammate and may just hang onto him if no suitable offers crop up, though he also notes that that line of thinking could be mere posturing on the Reds’ behalf. Fancred’s Jon Heyman, meanwhile, tweets that outfielder Adam Duvall‘s name continues to bounce around the rumor circuit, calling him and Harvey the two likeliest Reds to move. Heyman notes that the Reds would need to be “blown away” to move closer Raisel Iglesias, which largely lines up with previous reports that the Reds believe they can be significantly more competitive in 2019 despite a dearth of quality starting pitching.
- The Brewers are still in the market for upgrades after acquiring both Joakim Soria and Mike Moustakas, tweets Rosenthal. Specifically, Milwaukee is continuing to explore the market for a starting pitching upgrade and the market for some help behind the plate. The Brewers have recently been linked to the likes of Zack Wheeler and Chris Archer, though the market offers myriad opportunities to add an arm to the staff. There’s a more limited supply of available catchers, though Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, injured Rays backstop Wilson Ramos and Mets rental Devin Mesoraco are all candidates to change teams between now and the non-waiver deadline, which is roughly 24 hours away.
Trade Rumors: Andujar, Padres, Cards, J. Martinez, Rangers, Reds
The Yankees were involved in the Manny Machado sweepstakes before the Dodgers acquired him from the Orioles this week, though adding him wouldn’t have led New York to trade rookie third baseman Miguel Andujar. Rather, the Yankees simply would have platooned Andujar at first base or sent him down to the minors while Machado played third, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). The bottom line is that the Yankees “have no plans to trade Andujar,” writes Rosenthal, who adds that they recently turned down the Padres when they asked for the 23-year-old in exchange for reliever Brad Hand. San Diego ended up sending Hand to Cleveland in a blockbuster deal on Thursday.
More trade-related material as the July 31 non-waiver deadline approaches…
- Thanks in large part to his defensive shortcomings, Cardinals first baseman Jose Martinez is seemingly shifting toward a part-time role. As a result, the Cardinals could trade the 29-year-old – perhaps for a left-handed reliever or lefty-hitting position player – Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. If the Cardinals are going to deal Martinez anywhere, it’ll likely be to a team in the American League, where he’d be able to work as a designated hitter. But it doesn’t seem the Redbirds are going to trade Martinez for Orioles southpaw reliever Zach Britton, whom they’re not pursuing, according to Goold. Since debuting in earnest last year, Martinez has been a minus defender in the outfield and at first base. He has done his best to offset that with his bat, though, having slashed .303/.372/.497 with 27 home runs in 663 plate appearances.
- Sticking with the Cardinals, it doesn’t appear they’re going to move out any pitchers prior to the deadline. Top starter Carlos Martinez has come up in trade speculation, though president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com and other reporters on Thursday that the team won’t be subtracting from its staff. “For us, the one core we have is pitching,” Mozeliak said. “And to start trying to arbitrage that would have to be a very special-type deal, otherwise it would make no sense to us. None of that has presented itself to me. No one has called me with any great ideas that way. One of the responsibilities is us looking at potential trades, potential partners, but nothing that I’ve looked at would make sense in that regard. I don’t envision us moving pitching.”
- The Rangers won’t be trading pending free-agent third baseman Adrian Beltre “unless circumstances change drastically,” TR Sullivan of MLB.com writes. Despite Beltre’s age (39), Texas would like to re-sign the franchise great. Beltre, for his part, is a 10-and-5 player who’d be able to block any trade. Meanwhile, fellow aging Ranger Bartolo Colon isn’t drawing much trade interest, Sullivan reports. The 45-year-old has been a serviceable addition for Texas (4.64 ERA, 5.23 K/9, 1.43 BB/9 in 106 2/3 innings), though he’s not going to move the needle for a contender. Infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar would likely garner attention on the market, on the other hand, and Sullivan doesn’t close the door on the Rangers dealing him. The former star prospect, 25, is amid his best season, having hit .243/.326/.430 with nine home runs, eight steals and just 46 strikeouts in 350 plate appearances. Profar has produced those numbers on a low salary ($1.05MM) and still has two more years of arbitration eligibility left.
- Reds relievers Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, David Hernandez and Jared Hughes are “in demand” around the league, according to Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com. Whether the Reds are interested in dealing any of those pitchers is unclear, especially considering all four are controllable beyond this season and the team may push toward contending in 2019. Iglesias was already a hot commodity entering 2018, while Garrett has performed well in his first season as a reliever, and both Hernandez and Hughes have been quality free-agent pickups for Cincy.