Trade Rumblings: Hand, Dodgers, Dozier, Heaney, Skaggs
Though the Phillies lost out to the Dodgers in the Manny Machado sweepstakes, they’re far from done looking for upgrades to their ballclub. Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets that the club is interested in Padres reliever Brad Hand. As Lin notes, there are certainly many other clubs in competition for the lefty’s services; he’s easily one of the most talented bullpen arms in the game. As one might expect, however, San Diego’s asking price for Hand remains very high, as he can be controlled through the 2021 season at a very reasonable cost. The Yankees, Indians and Cubs are among the other teams who’ve been connected to Hand, who owns a 3.03 ERA and 13.20 K/9 on the season.
More rumors and rumblings from around the league…
- The Dodgers aren’t done yet, either, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports, as they’ll now pursue a reliever to help closer Kenley Jansen at the back end of their bullpen. It’s worth noting that Los Angeles will sit just a few million dollars below the luxury tax threshold following the acquisition of Machado, so any bullpen additions will likely come cheap, or send a player (such as Logan Forsythe) back to a trade partner in order to offset some of financial burden involved. In addition to Hand, Jeurys Familia, Zach Britton, Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen and Raisel Iglesias are just a few names who could be available.
- Also in the aftermath of the Machado sweepstakes, the Brewers are left looking to acquire an infield upgrade. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that they’re expected to explore trading for Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. With Minnesota all but out of the the AL Central race already and Dozier set to become a free agent at season’s end, he makes plenty of sense as a potential trade target for the Brewers, despite a down season so far. The Brewers are also expected to explore pitching upgrades, Rosenthal adds.
- Also from Rosenthal, the Angels aren’t likely to trade young starters Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs, despite previous reports that the club might consider doing so. The Angels see the two young southpaws as key components during a 2019 season in which they hope to contend. Rather, Rosenthal notes, the club is more interested in trading some of their relievers (he lists Jose Alvarez, Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian and Justin Anderson), though they’d want a good enough return to justify giving up controllable players.
Trade Rumblings: Angels, Yanks, Eovaldi, Mets, Odorizzi, Astros, Iglesias
The Angels, one game over .500 and 10 out of a playoff spot, could elect to sell at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. If that happens, they may have logical trade partners in the Yankees, Jon Morosi of MLB.com observes. The Yankees have been scouting the Angels, per Morosi, who writes that New York “would have interest” in left-handers Tyler Skaggs and Andrew Heaney if were they to become available. Further, there are likely Yankees prospects who would pique the Angels’ interest, given that Halos general manager Billy Eppler had a prominent role in the Bombers’ front office not long ago.
While it’s unclear if either Skaggs or Heaney will hit the block, Rays righty Nathan Eovaldi will likely end up on the move in the next couple weeks. The Yankees, with whom he pitched from 2015-16, have “closely” watched Eovaldi of late, as have the Brewers and Braves (among others), Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Eovaldi’s most recent start was a nightmare, as he allowed eight earned runs on nine hits and two walks in 2 2/3 innings against Minnesota on Friday. In the process, his season ERA climbed from 3.35 to 4.59 (with a 4.45 FIP) over 51 innings.
More rumblings as the deadline nears:
- The Mets are unlikely to trade any of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz prior to the deadline, Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears. That in itself isn’t surprising, but the Mets’ valuation of Matz is arguably eyebrow-raising. They’re treating Matz more like an ace “than an oft-injured, No. 3 starter” in discussions with other teams, Sherman writes. Assuming Matz stays along with the Mets’ co-aces, the likelihood is that their most valuable trade chips will be righty Zack Wheeler, closer Jeurys Familia and infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, per Sherman.
- More from Sherman, who reports that Twins righty Jake Odorizzi is “very available.” The Twins acquired Odorizzi fom the Rays during the winter, when they had designs on a second straight playoff trip, but Minnesota has since struggled to a 43-49 record. Odorizzi hasn’t really been part of the solution, having logged a 4.54 ERA/4.63 FIP through 101 innings, but he is controllable beyond this season. The 28-year-old’s on a $6.3MM salary now and has a season of arbitration eligibility remaining.
- The belief is that the Astros’ front office has a high opinion of Reds closer Raisel Iglesias, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com relays. That’s hardly a shock, as most who follow the game think highly of Iglesias, but it’s notable considering the Astros are in the market for bullpen help. Iglesias would fit nicely into their relief corps or any other team’s, but the 28-year-old – a careerlong Red – would like to remain in Cincinnati. On the subject of trade rumors, Iglesias said through an interpreter: “I’m not paying attention at all to that. I want to stay here. I don’t want to go anywhere else, but I don’t control that. If I could control it, I would stay here and play here for all of my career.”
Latest On Matt Harvey, Raisel Iglesias
3:20pm: A source disputes the reporting from the Nationals’ perspective, per Chelsea Janes and Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (Twitter links). The Washington organization does not have interest in Harvey and “seems unlikely” to be a real bidder on Iglesias, according to the WaPo duo. The Nats are said to have shown some interest in Iglesias as a reliever, but that came before they acquired Kelvin Herrera.
10:07am: The Nationals have been in touch with the Reds recently and are eyeing right-handers Matt Harvey and Raisel Iglesias, in particular, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Perhaps most interestingly, Heyman notes that several clubs are intrigued by the idea of using Iglesias as a starter.
Harvey, 29, has undeniably raised his stock since joining the Reds in a trade nearly two months ago in a trade that sent Devin Mesoraco to New York. Through 53 2/3 innings out of the Cincinnati rotation, he’s worked to a 3.86 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 43 percent ground-ball rate. More encouraging than the bottom-line numbers is the fact that Harvey has steadily improved his velocity over the course of his tenure in Cincinnati; he’s averaged nearly 95 mph on his fastball over his past five starts and is averaging 94.2 mph on his heater as a Red after averaging 92.6 mph as a Met.
Harvey would be a pure rental for any team that acquires him, as he’s slated to hit free agency at season’s end. From the Nationals’ vantage point, though, it’s not clear he’d be a definitive upgrade over their in-house options. The Nats’ current top three of Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez is a strong trio, and while it’s not known exactly when Stephen Strasburg will rejoin the team, he did recently throw a bullpen session. If Strasburg’s absence proves to be lengthy, the need for a starter would be more pronounced. If he can return in the reasonably near future, though, it’s tougher to call Harvey a demonstrative upgrade over current fifth starter Jeremy Hellickson, who has turned in a perhaps surprisingly effective season to date (2.63 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3.51 FIP, 3.55 xFIP through 48 innings).
As for Iglesias, he stands out as a reasonable target for virtually any team with postseason aspirations. The 28-year-old has stepped up as Cincinnati’s closer over the past two seasons and pitched quite well, regularly pitching more than an inning per appearance. Since Opening Day 2017, he’s pitched 112 2/3 innings (97 appearances) and posted a 2.48 ERA with 10.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9. Beyond that, he’s controlled for three more years after the 2018 season, making him a long-term piece for any club to add to its staff — be it in the bullpen or rotation.
The Nationals’ bullpen is much improved from a year ago, as they’ve since added Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler and Kelvin Herrera, to say nothing of the surprisingly dominant Justin Miller. But Iglesias would nonetheless further deepen an increasingly productive relief corps for manager Dave Martinez or, perhaps, serve as an upside play to plug into the fifth spot in the Washington rotation. If that proved to be a role in which he could thrive, he’d give the team a valuable option there with Gonzalez and Hellickson set to hit free agency at season’s end and Roark controlled only through 2019.
Red Sox Notes: Iglesias, Deadline, Lind, Chavis
The Red Sox and Astros are among the teams with interest in Reds closer Raisel Iglesias, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Houston, in particular, is “looking hard at Iglesias,” Cafardo writes. The Astros had been eyeing fellow late-game option Kelvin Herrera, per Cafardo, though he’s no longer on the market after the Royals traded him to the Nationals earlier this month. Unlike Herrera, a free agent at season’s end, Iglesias could be a multiyear solution for an acquiring team. The 28-year-old standout is under control through 2020 for affordable salaries ($4.5MM this season, $5MM in each of 2019 and ’20), though he could elect to opt into arbitration over the winter in hopes of securing a raise. Given Iglesias’ track record and remaining team control, the Reds would surely require an impressive haul to consider moving him. It’s worth noting, then, that the Astros have Baseball America‘s 10th-best farm system, while the Red Sox’s prospect pool is just 24th.
Here’s more on Boston…
- Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski told Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com and other reporters on Saturday that he’s talking trades with multiple teams, but he suggested he’s content with his roster as it is. Regardless of whether Boston makes more moves (it picked up infielder/outfielder Steve Pearce in a deal with Toronto this week), Dombrowski expects trade action to continue across the league well before the July 31 non-waiver deadline. “I will tell you, as we talk to various clubs, there are a lot more clubs that are motivated to do things quickly from a trading perspective, if they get what they want,” said Dombrowski, who added that the Red Sox’s desire to keep their payroll under $237MM won’t necessarily stop them from making further additions. Should the team exceed that figure, its top pick in the 2019 draft would drop 10 spots.
- First baseman Adam Lind will have a chance to opt out of his minor league deal with the Red Sox on Sunday, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic tweets. McCaffrey adds that Dombrowski is hopeful Lind will remain at Triple-A Pawtucket, where he has batted .263/.321/.455 in 109 plate appearances since inking his minors pact May 29. Given the presences of first basemen Pearce and Mitch Moreland – a fellow left-handed hitter – and corner outfield/designated hitter options Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez, major league playing time looks as if it will be hard to come by for Lind if he stays with the organization.
- The Red Sox will activate infielder Michael Chavis, their top-ranked prospect at MLB.com, on Sunday, Dombrowski announced (via Cotillo). Chavis served an 80-game suspension after testing positive for dehydrochlormethyltestosterone, a performance-enhancing drug. The 22-year-old will start with Class-A Lowell and eventually work his way back to Double-A Portland, where he played most of last season.
Reds Place Raisel Iglesias On Disabled List
The Reds announced this afternoon that they’ve placed closer Raisel Iglesias on the 10-day disabled list due to soreness in his left (non-throwing) biceps. Fellow righty Austin Brice is also headed to the DL thanks to an upper back injury. In their place, the Reds activated righties Michael Lorenzen and Tanner Rainey from the disabled list. The announcement didn’t include any expected timeline for either player’s absence.
Iglesias, 28, struggled with his control early in the season but has corrected that issue lately and looked to be in excellent form since late April. He did issue a pair of runs and suffer his second blown save in his most recent appearance, but he’s gone 10 outings without issuing a walk and pitched to a 1.74 ERA with 12 strikeouts in that time. Overall in 21 2/3 innings this season, he’s notched a 2.08 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 and a 36.2 percent ground-ball rate.
Brice, meanwhile, has been scored upon in four of his past past five appearances, causing his ERA to balloon up to 4.67 despite largely promising K/BB and ground-ball tendencies. In 25 innings of relief this season, he’s averaged 9.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 with a 50.7 percent ground-ball rate. He’s been too prone to the long ball, though, already serving up four homers on the season. That’s been an ongoing trend for Brice in the big leagues, as he’s yielded a dozen big flies in just 71 2/3 frames at the game’s top level.
[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart | MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]
It’s not yet clear who’ll step into the ninth inning for the Reds with Iglesias out of action. For all of the Reds’ flaws, they actually have several high-quality options in the ‘pen, where Amir Garrett, Jared Hughes and Dylan Floro have all worked to a sub-2.00 ERA in 2018. Garrett has very arguably been the team’s most dominant relief arm, averaging better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and notching a 1.67 ERA in his 27 frames this far. The veteran Hughes has shown the best control of the bunch and comes with the most late-inning experience in the big leagues, having spent several seasons as a setup man for the division-rival Pirates. Lorenzen, meanwhile, was the top setup man to Iglesias last season but has yet to pitch in the Majors this season due to a shoulder strain that caused him to open the season on the disabled list.
Poll: Which Of These Players Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
We’ve reached January, and the free agent market is still lagging in a big way. The top free agents available seemingly haven’t showed a willingness to lower their asking prices, and with spring training less than two months out, teams may feel a need to complete their offseason shopping lists sooner than later. In some cases, this may cause teams to make stronger pushes for some candidates on the trade market.
There have certainly been some large scale trades so far this offseason. High-end players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler and Stephen Piscotty have changed hands already, and there are still plenty of practical matches left between MLB teams. We’ve detailed many of these in the 2017-2018 installment of our “Looking For A Match” series; the players featured in those articles are listed below, with our noted potential fits listed in parentheses.
- Billy Hamilton, Reds CF (Giants, Dodgers, Royals): Hamilton’s talents as a burner on the basepaths and an elite defender in center field are well-known throughout MLB circles, but in truth, that’s about where his usefulness ends. His .299 OBP was the 11th-lowest among qualified hitters in 2017; that number is about consistent with his career mark. The Giants seem to have shown a strong interest in Hamilton, but Reds owner Bob Castellini’s recently-reported hesitancy to part with the speedster could gum up trade negotiations. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade]
- Brad Hand, Padres LHRP (Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Twins, Braves): Though our evaluation of Hand’s trade market also included the Rays and Rockies, those teams seem like less likely suitors at this point in the offseason; the former decreased their likelihood of contention by shipping Longoria to San Francisco, while the latter has signed three expensive relief pitchers to pad their bullpen. Hand is one of the elite relief pitchers in all of baseball, and he’s certainly one of the best (if not the undisputed best) bullpen options on the trade market. Of course, the caveat is that it would also require a significant prospect haul to convince San Diego to move him. The lefty has two years of team control remaining, and MLBTR projects him to cost just $3.8MM in 2018. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Brad Hand Trade]
- Jose Abreu, White Sox 1B (Astros, Indians, Rangers, Red Sox, Rockies): Though the Cuba native has been a mainstay in the White Sox’ lineup since his MLB debut in 2014, his club is unlikely to contend for a pennant before he reaches free agency after the 2019 season. MLBTR’s arbitration projections have him pegged for a $17.9MM salary in 2018, but his expected offensive output makes him well worth that price tag. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Jose Abreu Trade]
- Avisail Garcia, White Sox OF (Blue Jays, Indians, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rangers): Like Abreu, Garcia is a South Sider with two years of team control remaining. However, he comes with a lot more risk; Garcia had played below replacement level over the course of his career prior to a breakout this past season. Still, there are many teams who would benefit from adding a lefty-masher to their outfield corps, and his projected 2018 salary is a reasonable $6.7MM. [LINK: Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade]
- Raisel Iglesias, Reds RHRP (Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, Astros): With three full seasons of team control remaining, Iglesias could prove a valuable long-term asset to either a rebuilding club or a current contender. He’s managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings over the course of his career as a reliever while posting a sterling 2.29 ERA. The Twins have reportedly shown interest in Iglesias this winter, though that was nearly two months ago; there haven’t been any new developments in that story since then. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade]
- J.T. Realmuto, Marlins C (Nationals, Rockies, Diamondbacks): Unlike the other players on this list, Realmuto has gone so far as to request a trade from his current team. While that alone certainly isn’t enough to facilitate a trade, some have taken the stance that Miami ought to trade their catcher (along with fellow Marlin Christian Yelich) at his peak value. Realmuto has accrued more than 7 WAR over the past two seasons alone, but the Marlins don’t feel compelled to trade him unless they’re overwhelmed by an offer. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A J.T. Realmuto Trade]
- Manny Machado, Orioles 3B (Cardinals, Yankees, Angels, Rockies, Nationals): Rumors surrounding Baltimore’s prized infielder have cooled off a bit recently, but the Orioles could still be prompted to move him for the right offer. They’re reportedly seeking two talented starting pitchers who are controllable for the long term, however, which seems like a sky-high asking price for a player with just one year of team control remaining. Of course, the O’s probably wouldn’t restrict a return to just rotation options. Machado is projected to earn a $17.3MM salary in his final season before hitting the free agent market. [LINK: Trading Manny Machado]
We’ll open this subject up to reader opinions at this point. Which of the trade candidates we’ve profiled do you think is most likely to be traded before the 2018 season begins? (Link for app users)
Which Of These Players Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
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J.T. Realmuto 26% (5,566)
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Billy Hamilton 19% (4,137)
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Manny Machado 14% (2,947)
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Brad Hand 14% (2,941)
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It's more likely that none of these players will be traded 9% (1,982)
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Jose Abreu 9% (1,827)
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Avisail Garcia 6% (1,231)
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Raisel Iglesias 3% (666)
Total votes: 21,297
Pitching Market Chatter: Phils, Yanks, Greinke, Cole, Archer, Duffy, CC, Jays
With a pair of relief signings being wrapped up, the Phillies seem to feel good about that aspect of their roster. Per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, via Twitter, the team will turn its gaze to improving the rotation. Both they and the Yankees checked in with the Diamondbacks regarding right-hander Zack Greinke, Robert Murray of FanRag writes. Greinke ending up with either club is unlikely, however, sources informed Murray. With the Rangers also having shown interest in Greinke, we now know at least three teams have inquired about the expensive 34-year-old this offseason.
Greinke is the latest hurler to land on the radar of the Yankees, who have also eyed Pirates righty Gerrit Cole. Consequently, the Bucs “are gathering names of young, controllable” Yankees they could acquire in a Cole deal, though there’s “nothing close,” Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (on Twitter). Notably, Brink adds that the Yankees are also “looking at” Rays righty Chris Archer. The 29-year-old has drawn significant interest this winter, but it’s unclear whether the Rays will move him.
Plenty more pitching rumors…
- The Royals are giving serious consideration to dealing southpaw Danny Duffy, who’s “extremely popular” on the trade market, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. Duffy suggested on Twitter that he doesn’t want to go anywhere, for what it’s worth. “Bury me a Royal,” he declared.
- As the Blue Jays look for pitching reinforcements, they are giving real consideration to veteran CC Sabathia, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. Though manager John Gibbons suggested his own priority is to add bats, he also said he’d welcome the addition of the veteran Sabathia — who has a lengthy history with the Jays’ current front office leadership stemming from their time in Cleveland together.
- Teams have given up on trying to acquire Reds closer Raisel Iglesias, Heyman reports on Twitter. The Reds understandably want an enormous haul back for the 27-year-old star, who’s under affordable control for the foreseeable future.
- The Twins and Rays have chatted about veteran righty Jake Odorizzi, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter), who adds that Tampa Bay was not interested in Minnesota’s initial offer.
- Although they’re at the beginning of a full, cost-cutting rebuild, the Marlins aren’t feeling any urgency to deal righty Dan Straily, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com (Twitter link). Miami’s de facto ace will play his first of three arbitration-eligible seasons in 2018. He’s projected to earn a $4.6MM salary, which even the Marlins can afford.
- The Mets are not likely to sign another free agent reliever, at least in the near term, according to GM Sandy Alderson and as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets. Instead, after landing Anthony Swarzak, the organization expects to begin looking to fill its other needs.
- Brewers GM David Stearns discussed his organization’s situation with reporters including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter links). He said the team was willing to go to two years to get Swarzak, but wasn’t willing to match the dollar amount he ultimately took. The club still has open payroll capacity, which Stearns says he’ll put to good use. “We have spending power this offseason,” he said. “I’m confident we are going to find places to use that effectively.”
- Before the Astros agreed to a deal with Joe Smith on Wednesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com hinted on Twitter that the team could have interest in free agent righty Hector Rondon. Whether that still stands remains to be seen, but the Astros are already chock-full of righty relievers as it is.
NL Central Notes: Pirates Staff, Rivero, Iglesias
The Pirates have made a host of changes to their scouting and front office staff, Bill Brink of the Pittsburg Post-Gazette reports. Steve Williams, a major league scout since 1988, will be their new director of pro scouting. Junior Vizcaino, formerly of the Red Sox, will replace the recently-discharged Rene Gayo as Pittsburgh’s director of Latin America scouting. Assistant GM Greg Smith will now work under the title “Special Assistant to the GM”, though it’s not quite clear what the change in his role will actually be. Pitching coordinator Justin Meccage will now join the coaching staff as assistant pitching coach. In addition, pro scout Sean McNally has been named Special Assistant to the GM, John Birbeck and Matt Taylor have been made scouting assistants, and Joe Douglas and Justin Newman have been named quantitative analysts. While these moves seem to be mostly routine shuffling, it’s worth noting that very few first-round picks of the Pirates have lived up to their billing over the past 12 years.
More details from around the NL Central…
- In other Pirates news, closer Felipe Rivero has dropped agent Scott Boras. He’ll now be represented by Magnus Sports, according to Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Rivero enjoyed a breakout season in 2017, posting a 1.67 ERA and 3.50 WPA across 75 1/3 innings thanks in part to a 10.51 K/9 and a 52.9% ground ball rate. Although he enjoyed a bit of BABIP and home run luck, his 3.03 xFIP is still a solid mark. The left-hander compiled 21 saves after taking over as Pittsburgh’s closer halfway through the season, and is arbitration-eligible for the first time next offseason. He should be in line for a significant raise if he can perform close to his 2017 numbers. Bloom notes that Magnus Sports also represents some other closers, including Aroldis Chapman of the Yankees and Raisel Iglesias of the Reds.
- Speaking of Iglesias, the right-hander has officially decided not to opt into arbitration, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. It seemed highly unlikely that Iglesias would choose to do so this season, considering his contract will pay him $4.5MM next season, while MLBTR’s arbitration model projected him for a $2.8MM salary. Nevertheless, Iglesias’ statement ends any speculation that he would opt into the process during this offseason (though he’ll have another opportunity next year). For the 2017 season, Iglesias finished 15th among relievers in total innings pitched (75), 22nd in ERA (2.49), 13th in saves (28), and tied for 13th in strikeouts (92).
Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade
The Reds’ short- and long-term plans for their rotation hit a snag in 2016 when promising starter Raisel Iglesias shifted to the bullpen after encountering shoulder problems. Now, with Iglesias having morphed into one of the game’s most valuable late-game assets over the past two seasons, it’s clear that something positive came from the right-hander’s role change.
Since he became a member of Cincinnati’s relief corps, Iglesias has combined for 126 innings of 2.29 ERA pitching, with 10.43 K/9 against 3.29 BB/9. Any team would sign up for that type of production, including the Reds themselves, who seem inclined to retain Iglesias entering his age-28 season. But with the Reds amid a rebuild and not looking like near-term contenders, there’s an argument to be made that they should sell Iglesias this winter.
Iglesias has already drawn reported interest from the Twins, who will need to bolster their thin bullpen if they’re going to build on the unexpected success they experienced in 2017. Iglesias would be a fit for a Minnesota club seeking more strikeouts from its pitching staff, but with a farm system that lacks impact talent (per Baseball America), he may be out of its reach.
The Twins are one of a multitude of teams that could inquire about Iglesias (or maybe already have). Indeed, general manager Dick Williams estimated earlier this month that two-thirds of the league would have interest in Iglesias without the Reds even having to shop his services. That seems like a reasonable guess on Williams’ part, given both Iglesias’ superb pitching and his affordability.
Thanks to the seven-year, $27MM contract he signed as a Cuban defector in 2014, Iglesias is under control through the 2020-21 offseason. He’s guaranteed a relatively meager $14.5MM in salaries over the next three years ($4.5MM in 2018, $5MM in both ’19 and ’20), though he could opt into arbitration in each of those offseasons if he believes he’d rake in more money that way. That’s unlikely to happen in 2018, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.8MM arbitration award for Iglesias should he choose that route. Regardless, Iglesias’ contract only adds to his appeal, and it’s a big part of the reason why he’d command a significant haul in a trade.
Teams with good systems that are either in contention or close to it stand out as the best fits for Iglesias in a hypothetical trade, which would seem to rule out rebuilding clubs such as the Tigers, Padres, Marlins, Athletics and White Sox. None of the Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, Mariners, Angels, Rangers, Indians, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, Diamondbacks or Giants look like ideal fits, either, for various reasons.
Toronto and Tampa Bay have two of the top 10 farms in the league, according to BA, though neither team appears to be in position to strip itself of major young talent to acquire a reliever. The Yankees and Indians seem to possess more than enough quality relievers, meanwhile, and the rest of the aforementioned clubs probably don’t have the youth on hand to put together a suitable package for Iglesias. That leaves us with seven of the Reds’ National League counterparts — the Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Dodgers — and the World Series champion Astros.
An earnest Iglesias pursuit could be a tad aggressive for either Atlanta or Philadelphia, a pair of clubs that have resided at the bottom of the standings in recent years. Both teams seem to be pushing toward contention, however, and there’s no shortage of capable prospects on hand in either case (even though the Braves just lost a dozen youngsters thanks to ex-GM John Coppolella’s transgressions).
The Nationals figure to rule the NL East for the third straight year in 2018, but they’re not loaded in the bullpen after Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Next season might be the last in D.C. for Bryce Harper, which could lead to some bold, go-for-broke moves from general manager Mike Rizzo this winter. Landing Iglesias would qualify, though it would mean further thinning out a top-heavy system.
The Cardinals look poised to serve as one of the league’s most active teams in the next few months, and the need for relief help is apparent with Trevor Rosenthal out of the organization and Seung-hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio having hit free agency. The division-rival Brewers had the world-class game-ending tandem of Corey Knebel and Josh Hader in 2017, but the latter could shift to the rotation in the near future. Even if he doesn’t, there’s room for another inexpensive, top-notch reliever in Milwaukee, a low-payroll club with the prospects to assemble an Iglesias package.
As for the two NL West clubs, the Rockies and Dodgers, it’s clear there’s a greater need for Iglesias in Colorado. The Rockies surprisingly earned a playoff berth in 2017, in part because of relievers Greg Holland, Jake McGee and Pat Neshek. All three of those hurlers are now free agents, however, so Colorado is going to have to focus on its bullpen this offseason. Enter Iglesias, then? Notably, he’s rather reliant on a slider, a pitch the Rockies’ relievers threw more than 28 other bullpens last season and one that’s capable of surviving in the high altitude at Coors Field.
The pennant-winning Dodgers have arguably the game’s preeminent closer in Kenley Jansen, but their second-best reliever from last season, Brandon Morrow, is currently on the open market. That leaves room for an Iglesias pickup if they’re willing to part with the prospects, as he’s superior to late-inning holdovers such as Pedro Baez, Josh Fields, Luis Avilan and ex-Reds teammate Tony Cingrani.
The Astros managed to knock off the Dodgers in a Fall Classic that lived up its name, though the slump Houston’s bullpen endured nearly foiled its plans. Still, Iglesias would be more of a luxury than a must-have for the Astros, who look to be in fine shape with Ken Giles (playoff struggles notwithstanding), Chris Devenski, Will Harris and Joe Musgrove in the fold. But GM Jeff Luhnow tried to meaningfully improve the Astros’ bullpen over the summer, when he nearly swung a deal for the Orioles’ Zach Britton, and that was before Giles’ disastrous postseason run. With that in mind, perhaps Luhnow will dip into his high-end farm system this offseason to reel in a premier reliever like Iglesias, who would join a bullpen that led the majors in slider usage in 2017.
While the Reds may choose to go forward with Iglesias, it’s inarguable that they have an eminently valuable trade chip on their hands. As someone who saved 28 of 30 opportunities and recorded more than three outs in 17 of 63 appearances last season, Iglesias is the type of flexible late-game weapon who’d be worth more to a playoff-caliber team than a non-contender. With Cincinnati falling into the latter category, Iglesias just might himself in another uniform in 2018.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Central Notes: Votto, Kinsler, Twins Pitching Targets
Just in case there was any doubt, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes in response to a fan inquiry that there’s no indication whatsoever that Reds first baseman Joey Votto will end up being moved this winter. The polished batsman, who very nearly took home National League MVP honors for the 2017 season, has given every indication that “he doesn’t want to leave the Reds,” says Sheldon, and can control his own fate through a full no-trade clause.
- Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler does not enjoy quite so much control over his own fate, but does have a ten-team no-trade list that was drawn up at the end of the 2017 campaign.* Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription link) has the latest on his interesting trade candidacy, including a look at the feasibility of a move to third for the veteran — which some teams have reportedly considered as they weigh an offer to acquire him. At present, it is not publicly known which teams have contemplated that possibility or — yet more importantly — which are among those that cannot acquire Kinsler without his consent. The Detroit organization would obviously need to work with Kinsler and his representatives if it were to find a match with one of the ten protected rivals, but Strang reports that, at least as of last week, that subject has not yet been broached. As we discussed in examining his potential market yesterday, there are perhaps only a few very clear trade matches on paper at this point, though certainly a fair number of others could be imagined depending upon a variety of factors. Kinsler’s no-trade rights may not come into play at all, but might also afford him an opportunity to nix a move if it is not to his liking.
- While the Twins are said to be taking a look at a variety of controllable starters, there’s “no indication” at this point that they have engaged with the Rays on Chris Archer or the Marlins on Dan Straily, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). It stands to reason, though, that both would at least draw internal consideration. The former is quite a lofty target for any team, as he’d draw huge interest if he’s made available in trade talks. The latter is a useful hurler in his own right after turning in solid results for two consecutive years. Straily’s affordable control would surely hold some appeal to Minnesota, though for the same reason the Marlins will likely set forth a relatively steep asking price for a starter who is noted more for his steadiness and contract than anything approaching dominant peripherals.
- The Twins will need to chase down some relief arms, too. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports on his podcast (audio link) that the club has engaged the Padres on Brad Hand and the Rays on Alex Colome. Minnesota was previously reported to have chatted with the Reds about Raisel Iglesias, and these new names fit the same general profile as established late-inning arms with affordable remaining control. All will come with appropriately lofty price tags. Berardino also tweets that Cubs lefty Justin Wilson might represent a target for the Twins. Having struggled last year upon landing in Chicago, Wilson could conceivably become available, though that’s far from certain. Minnesota eyed the power southpaw in the past, says Berardino, though that occurred before the current front office leadership came into office.
*An earlier version of this post wrongly suggested that Kinsler had not yet compiled his current no-trade list and mistakenly attributed that notion to Strang’s report. The error was ours and we apologize for any confusion.