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Mets To Sign Carlos Correa

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In a shocking development, Carlos Correa has agreed to join the Mets for a 12-year, $315MM contract, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.  Correa had previously agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants, yet reports surfaced yesterday that an unknown issue with Correa’s medicals had led to a postponement of the Giants’ introductory press conference for the shortstop.  The 28-year-old Correa is represented by the Boras Corporation, and his deal with the Mets will become official once he passes a physical.

As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets, the “Giants flagged something in [Correa’s] physical and doctors disagreed.”  Slusser also reported yesterday that Correa’s back wasn’t the issue, though back soreness has sent the former All-Star to the injured list on multiple occasions during his career.

Whatever the Giants took issue with in Correa’s physical, obviously the problem wasn’t enough to deter the Mets from adding yet another high-priced star to their already loaded roster (and payroll).  Mets owner Steve Cohen said last week that the team made a late bid of around $300MM to land Correa, but that offer was turned down by agent Scott Boras since talks with the Giants had already reached an advanced stage.

As it turned out, that late attempt from Cohen was seemingly all Boras needed to secure another mega-deal for his client quickly after the agreement with San Francisco fell apart.  As Cohen told Heyman, “we kind of picked up where we were before and it just worked out” over the course of four or five hours’ worth of extra negotiations.

Correa’s new contract with New York is one year shorter and worth slightly less in average annual value ($26.25MM with the Mets compared to $26.92MM with the Giants).  It is also “only” now the 10th-largest contract in baseball history in terms of total value, while the $350MM deal with San Francisco was the fourth-largest in history.

Still, the deal handily surpasses MLBTR’s projection of a nine-year, $288MM pact for Correa.  Like the structure of the original Giants contract as well as other deals signed by Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner this winter alone, the longer length allows the team to spread out the luxury-tax hit over more years, while the player still gets his money as well as extra security.  The Mets themselves used a version of this strategy in re-signing Brandon Nimmo to an eight-year, $162MM deal, as Nimmo’s tax number is $20.25MM.  Correa now joins Nimmo and Francisco Lindor as Mets players signed beyond the 2029 season, though the Mets’ expenditures this winter have varied widely in length.

The overall numbers of the Mets’ spending spree continue to stagger.  Assuming Correa’s contract pays him $26.25MM in each year of the deal, the Amazins’ payroll will now soar past the $377MM mark for 2023.  Having already far surpassed the fourth and highest tier ($293MM) of Competitive Balance Tax penalties, New York is paying a 90% tax on every dollar spent beyond the $293MM threshold.  That works out to roughly $23.62MM added to the Mets’ tax bill, thus putting their luxury tax number over $386MM.

Correa, Nimmo, Justin Verlander, Edwin Diaz, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, and Omar Narvaez represent the star-studded list of free agents signed and re-signed by New York this offseason alone, to say nothing of their previous big splashes since Cohen bought the team just over two years ago.  Needless to say, Cohen has established new standards for spending, as the owner has made no qualms about his desire to immediately make the Mets as competitive as possible.  The result was a 101-win season in 2022, but the Amazins didn’t make it past the first round of the expanded playoffs, losing to the Padres in three games in the Wild Card Series.

The Correa signing “really makes a big difference,” Cohen said.  “I felt like our pitching was in good shape.  We needed one more hitter.  This puts us over the top.”

Indeed, most of the Mets’ focus had been on revamping a rotation and bullpen that was full of free agents.  While Diaz and Ottavino were re-signed, plenty of holes had to be filled after Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Seth Lugo, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor Williams, Trevor May, and Mychal Givens all signed elsewhere.  Nimmo was the biggest pending free agent on the position player side, and Narvaez should help bolster the catching corps, but Cohen and GM Billy Eppler weren’t going to curb their aggressiveness.

To this end, one of baseball’s best shortstops in Correa now won’t even be a shortstop, as Correa will now move to third base in deference to Lindor.  Correa won a Platinum Glove, Gold Glove, and Fielding Bible Award for his work at shortstop just in 2021, and his professional experience at third base consists of one game with the Astros’ Double-A affiliate in 2015.  That said, Lindor is an excellent fielder in his own right, and the Outs Above Average and UZR/150 public metrics prefer his glovework at shortstop to Correa’s over the course of their careers.  There isn’t much doubt that Correa should be able to translate well to the hot corner, thus improving the Mets’ defense as well as the impact he’ll bring to the lineup.

With Correa now the new third baseman, Eduardo Escobar is suddenly out of a starting job.  It wasn’t even 13 months ago that Escobar was one of New York’s big signings of the 2021-22 offseason, as he inked a two-year, $20MM deal.  Escobar was decent if unspectacular, hitting .240/.295/.430 with 20 homers for a 106 wRC+ over 542 plate appearances in his first year in Queens.

“Decent if unspectacular” wasn’t enough for a team so intent on winning, however, and thus Escobar could now join Luis Guillorme as infield depth.  It stands to reason that the Mets could explore trading Escobar (and the $10MM remaining on his deal) to a team in need of a dependable veteran infielder, or New York could simply keep Escobar as a backup option in the event of an injury to Correa or starting second baseman Jeff McNeil.

Looking further down the depth chart, top prospect Brett Baty is also a third baseman, as is Mark Vientos (ranked by MLB Pipeline as the seventh-best minor league in New York’s farm system).  Baty has gotten some time as an outfielder and now might be viewed as a possible replacement for Canha in left field, while Vientos might be destined for a move off third base anyway, with first base potentially being his ultimate spot on the field.  With Correa now locked into the hot corner, however, there seems an increased possibility that the Mets could shop either of these prospects for other upgrades.

Today’s news marks the latest twist in a controversy-filled career for Correa, largely tied to his participation on the 2017 Astros team that won a World Series championship later clouded by the sign-stealing scandal.  Correa’s time in Houston ended when he signed a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins last winter, though that shorter-than-expected contract was designed to allow a quick return to the free agency.  Correa had opt-out clauses after both the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, and he exercised that first opt-out to re-enter the market in an offseason that wasn’t interrupted by the lockout.

Correa hit .291/.366/.467 with 22 homers over 590 plate appearances in his lone season in Minnesota, with a 140 wRC+ that stands as the third-highest of his eight MLB seasons.  Coming off a strong platform year and still being younger than most free agents once they reach the open market, Correa had every expectation of finally landing the pricey long-term contract he initially wanted last year.

The result was two pricey, long-term contracts, with the Mets swooping in to take Correa away from the Giants.  It’s probably wise to not totally assume Correa’s pact with the Mets is a done deal until the physical is passed and an official announcement is made, given the stunning nature of the last 24 hours.  Yesterday’s reports of a delay certainly raised red flags about the status of Correa’s agreement with San Francisco, but with an absence of any concrete news, there wasn’t yet any reason to believe that Correa wouldn’t still eventually end up in the Bay Area.

Instead, the Giants’ winter plans have now been dealt an almost unfathomable setback.  The Giants slumped to an 81-81 record after their 107-win season in 2021, leaving president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi in search of a major acquisition.  San Francisco has lots of payroll space and lots of needs around the roster to accommodate at least one new superstar, and there seemed little doubt that the Giants were lining up to make the first true blockbuster signing of Zaidi’s four-year tenure.

Aaron Judge was clearly the top priority heading into the offseason, and the Giants reportedly offered Judge around $360MM before the AL MVP took that same salary over a nine-year deal to re-sign with the Yankees.  With Judge off the board, San Francisco then turned to the shortstop market, with Correa emerging as their top target (ahead of Turner, Bogaerts, or Dansby Swanson).  The $350MM deal represented the biggest contract in franchise history, and a resounding counter to any argument that the Giants’ front office was unwilling or unable to land top-tier free agents.

It isn’t exactly true that the Giants are back to square one, since they’ve also signed Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea in free agency, and Joc Pederson was retained via the qualifying offer.  But, Carlos Rodon left the team to also sign with the Yankees, removing another star from the 2022 roster.  The league-wide rush on free agent signings has left the market bare of most of the top names, and so Zaidi and company will now have to explore the trade market (and possibly make some tough decisions on trading top prospects) in order to acquire another big-ticket star….if one is even necessarily available.

Speculatively, the Giants could try to wield their payroll space in a different manner, perhaps by offering a deal for both a star player and an undesirable contract on a team looking to cut spending.  With over three months until Opening Day, there’s plenty of time left for the Giants to still make moves, and yet it’s hard to imagine they can make an addition anywhere near Correa’s level.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Originally posted at 2:05am.

Giants Reportedly Postpone Carlos Correa’s Introduction Due To Medical Concern

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The Giants and Carlos Correa agreed to terms last week on a 13-year, $350MM framework for a deal. That structure was pending a physical and Correa had yet to officially sign the contract. The club was going to introduce him today but the scheduled news conference was postponed due to a medical concern, reports Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. Earlier today, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the postponement was related to the fact that the club was “awaiting test results.” At this point, it isn’t known what exactly is causing the holdup, with Blum’s report simply stating that “a medical issue was flagged.”

Beyond that information, anything else is speculation at this point. It isn’t publicly known what the issue is or how serious it is. It’s also not known if the Giants simply want to conduct further tests or have firm evidence of something that will lead to the deal being called off or restructured. However, the fact that they are at least delaying the official stamp is a situation that will be worth monitoring.

Over the past eight seasons, Correa has been one of the best shortstops in baseball but one knock against him has been durability. He has gone to the injured list with various issues in his career, including a torn ligament in his thumb, lower back soreness and a fractured rib. However, he largely moved past his “injury-prone” label in recent years. He played 58 games in the shortened 60-game season in 2020, followed by 148 contests in 2021. This most recent season, he went on the IL for a finger contusion and went to the COVID-IL once but still got into 136 games on the year, staying healthy for the entirety of the second half of the season. Again, it’s worth repeating that we don’t know what the current issue is or the severity of it, but Slusser reports that is not a back problem.

Giants Designate Gregory Santos For Assignment

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The Giants announced that they have designated right-hander Gregory Santos for assignment. The club will need to open one more roster spot, to allow for recent signees Sean Manaea and Carlos Correa to fit onto the 40-man.

Santos, 23, began his career in the Red Sox organization but came to the Giants in the 2017 deadline deal that sent Eduardo Núñez to Boston. The Giants were impressed enough with his development to give him a 40-man roster spot ahead of the 2020 Rule 5 draft. In 2021, Santos made a brief MLB debut but was handed an 80-game suspension in June after testing positive for Stanozolol, a banned performance-enhancing drug.

In 2022, Santos served as optional depth, throwing just 3 2/3 innings in the big leagues. In 33 Triple-A innings, he posted a 4.91 ERA with strong strikeout rate and ground ball rates of 23% and 51.7%, respectively. However, control was an issue with Santos walking 13.5% of batters faced, something that has been a persistent problem in recent years. He has a 16.7% walk rate in his brief MLB tenure as well.

The Giants will have one week to trade Santos or pass him through waivers. Despite those control issues, there are reasons Santos might find some interest from other clubs. He’s still quite young and has one option year remaining, allowing him to serve as depth in the minor leagues. He also has excellent velocity, with his fastball averaged at 98.8 mph in his brief showing this year. For any club that feels they can better harness that power, Santos could be a worthwhile pickup.

Steve Cohen Discusses Mets’ Pursuit Of Carlos Correa: “We Got There Late”

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Just before Carlos Correa signed his 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants, the Mets made an attempt to try land the star shortstop.  Mets owner Steve Cohen shed more light on that pursuit in an interview with Jon Heyman of the New York Post, as Cohen said that he contacted Correa’s agent Scott Boras an offer of roughly $300MM.  By that point, however, the Giants and Correa’s camp were already deep enough into negotiations that Boras and company didn’t want to turn back.

As Cohen simply put it, “we got there late” on Correa’s market.  “We thought maybe he might fall to us….He’s a great leader and a good guy.  He could play third base.  And he’s a great defender.”

Position changes have been floated for all of Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson in various permutations by several teams this winter, as even at the very top of the shortstop market, clubs creatively explored ways to fit these players into a lineup even if another good shortstop was already on the roster.  In New York, of course, Francisco Lindor is already locked into the shortstop role through the 2031 season, and thus Correa would’ve had to move to the hot corner.

Lindor’s presence made the Mets something of a bystander on the shortstop market, but when Correa lingered on the market, Cohen checked in with Boras to see if something could be done.  Eduardo Escobar (signed to a two-year, $20MM deal just last offseason) is the Mets’ current third baseman, but if Correa had been signed, Escobar would’ve presumably become an overqualified utility infielder, or perhaps a trade chip.

It’s also fair to say that Cohen’s attention might’ve been busy elsewhere, preventing him from making an earlier bid on Correa.  New York has already re-signed Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, and brought Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, and Omar Narvaez into the fold during an extraordinary free agent splurge.  The result is a payroll that sits at roughly $343.56MM, and a luxury tax number of $356.3MM — both records in MLB history.

“No one likes to spend money.  But this is the price” of doing business, Cohen said, as the Mets want to win but aren’t interested in trading from their farm system.  If this means operating at a loss in order to chase a World Series, that is fine in Cohen’s view.  Also, the owner noted that the club also had a lot of holes to fill (mostly on the pitching staff) given its own extensive free agent class.  While Nimmo and Diaz were retained, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, and Joely Rodriguez have all signed elsewhere.

“My team is good.  But it isn’t that much better than last year.  If you want a team that’s good, this is what it costs.  What are you going to do?” Cohen asked rhetorically.

As much as there doesn’t appear to be a limit on New York’s spending, Cohen did say that Correa’s market conditions played a role in the Mets’ interest, as he was going to pursue a signing “that made sense…and not get crazy.”  The fact that a $300MM offer on top of the Mets’ other spending doesn’t qualify as “crazy” is yet another eye-popping example of how Cohen is redefining baseball’s payroll limits, and yet “I’ve been dealing with big numbers for so long these numbers don’t scare me at all.  It’s not like I’m not respectful about what these other teams have to deal with.”

Giants, Nick Duron Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have signed reliever Nick Duron to a minor league contract, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. The 26-year-old joins the fourth organization of his professional career.

Duron entered the pro ranks in 2015, selected by the Red Sox in the 31st round out of Clark College in Washington. He spent a few seasons in the Boston system but didn’t advance past Low-A before being released in 2018. Signed to a minor league deal by the Mariners, he pitched his way to Triple-A in 2021 before qualifying for minor league free agency. Last winter, Duron hooked on with the Phillies on a minor league pact.

The 6’4″ hurler would again spend most of the season in Triple-A, but he earned a cup of coffee at the MLB level. Duron was called to the majors in July as a replacement for unvaccinated players in a series in Toronto. He came out of the bullpen once, working around two hits to get out of a scoreless inning. After the contest, Philadelphia returned him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he spent the remainder of the season before again hitting minor league free agency.

While Duron only has that one inning of MLB experience, he’s an interesting depth flier for the Giants. He averaged 97.2 MPH on his fastball during his MLB appearance. That strong velocity translated into plenty of whiffs in the minors, as he struck out a strong 29.6% of opponents over 48 2/3 innings for the IronPigs. Duron walked an alarming 13.6% of batters faced, but the strikeouts and a lofty 50.4% ground-ball percentage helped him to a 2.77 ERA.

Duron’s control has been inconsistent, but he’s flashed decent stuff and is coming off a career-best showing in Triple-A. He’ll presumably start next year with the Giants highest affiliate in Sacramento but could put himself in the mix for an MLB bullpen job at some point. Duron has all three option years remaining, so if he cracks the 40-man roster at any point, the Giants can freely move him between San Francisco and Sacramento for a long while.

Giants Sign Sean Manaea

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DECEMBER 16: The Giants have officially the signing of Manaea.

DECEMBER 12: Lefty Sean Manaea and the Giants have agreed to a two-year, $25MM deal with an opt-out after the 2023 season, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Manaea is represented by the Boras Corporation.

The deal marks a return to the Bay Area for the 30-year-old Manaea, who was traded from Kansas City to Oakland as a prospect at the 2015 trade deadline as part of the Ben Zobrist deal. Manaea debuted for the A’s the following year and was a steady presence in their rotation throughout his six seasons in Oakland, though he did miss most of the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Still, with both his career ERA (3.86) and FIP (3.96) under 4.00, Manaea was a fairly attractive arm to teams searching for rotation help after the lockout ended this spring, and so the A’s shipped him to San Diego along with relief prospect Aaron Holiday to acquire prospects Euribiel Angeles and Adrian Martinez. Things didn’t go so well for Manaea in San Diego, however, as he struggled in 2022, posting an unsightly 4.96 ERA (75 ERA+) in 158 innings that his 4.53 FIP only slightly improves upon.

That rough platform season is likely why Manaea was available to San Francisco, who showed interest in him during last week’s Winter Meetings, at such a low price compared to what we’ve seen from the rest of the mid-rotation market. It’s of course possible that Manaea eschewed a larger guarantee in order to secure a chance to test the market again next offseason, hoping to see his results improve in 2023.

In that regard, the deal is similar to the one the Giants signed Carlos Rodon to last offseason, albeit at a much lower AAV of just $12.5MM compared to Rodon’s $22MM. Manaea may prove to be Rodon’s replacement in a rotation that includes Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani, should Rodon ultimately sign elsewhere this offseason. Rodon is known to be seeking a seven-year deal this offseason, with the Cardinals and Yankees among those interested.

While it seems unlikely Manaea can imitate Rodon’s sterling 2022 production in 2023, there’s still reason to believe that Manaea can bounce back from his difficult 2022 in the coming season. His strikeout and walk rates of 23.2% and 7.5%, respectively, are roughly in line with his career norms and were actually slightly above league average last year according to Baseball Savant. And for the season’s first three months, Manaea’s numbers were right in line with his career marks. Through the end of June, he’d posted a 3.92 ERA and 3.76 FIP with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. Over the final three months of the season, however, Manaea was rocked for an ERA just over 6.00, with a huge portion of the damage coming in a pair of eight-run drubbings at Dodger Stadium.

Manaea’s biggest problem in 2022 was the long ball, as he allowed a whopping 1.65 home runs per nine innings that doubtlessly contributed to his strand rate of just 67.5% — his lowest in any full season of his career. Moving his home games Oracle Park, one of the most difficult ballparks in the majors for home run hitters, should aid Manaea in his bid to return to form in 2023. If Manaea can post a season more in line with his 2021 performance, where he posted a 3.91 ERA/3.66 FIP in his 179 1/3 innings of work, he’ll justify the investment from San Francisco and be in line for a larger deal, more in line with the four-year, $52MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for him this offseason.

With their starting five for 2023 likely set barring another surprise addition, the Giants seem primed to turn their attention to the lineup, which largely struggled in 2022 with the exception of All-Star Joc Pederson, who returned to the Giants by accepting a qualifying offer early in the offseason. San Francisco already added Mitch Haniger but is rumored to be interested in adding a second outfielder, even after missing on pursuits of Aaron Judge, Brandon Nimmo, and Cody Bellinger.

The Giants are also are expected to address an infield that lost Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria to free agency this offseason, while suffering a considerable step back from shortstop Brandon Crawford after his resurgent 2021 season. The Giants reportedly have Carlos Correa as their top option in the free agent shortstop market, with the Twins and Cubs representing possible competition for Correa’s services. San Francisco also seems likely to look to upgrade their relief corps for next season. Earlier, they were rumored to have interest in pairing Kenley Jansen, who signed with the Red Sox, with Camilo Doval at the back of their bullpen, so a pursuit of another back-end bullpen option like Taylor Rogers seems feasible.

Giants, Curt Casali Have Discussed Reunion

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The Giants have made big splashes to their infield and outfield this offseason with the signing of Carlos Correa and Mitch Haniger. They upgraded their rotation by signing Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. One thing still on the to-do list is addressing their catching corps, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reporting the club has been in contact with Curt Casali about him returning to the club.

When Buster Posey retired after the 2021 season, it was hoped that prospect Joey Bart could step up and take over as the club’s everyday backstop. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to fruition just yet. At the plate, he’s got some power but undercuts his value with strikeouts. He’s been punched out in 38% of his plate appearances thus far in his career and has a batting line of .215/.296/.364 for a wRC+ of 90. He was also given negative marks by Defensive Runs Saved and FanGraphs’ framing metric in 2022. As Slusser notes in her piece, Bart was nudged out of working with either Carlos Rodón or Logan Webb down the stretch last year.

Veteran Austin Wynns, who is still on the roster, ended up getting into 57 games behind the plate for the club last year. His defensive numbers were around league average, better than Bart, but he’s unlikely to provide much with the bat. The 32-year-old has a career batting line of .231/.275/.337 for a wRC+ of 68. There’s a third catcher on the 40-man roster in Blake Sabol. The Giants just acquired him from the Reds, who grabbed him from the Pirates in the Rule 5 draft. He has great batting numbers in the minors but no major league experience. He also plays the outfield, making him perhaps best suited for a third catcher/utility role.

Given those options, it’s unsurprising that the club would be open to finding more certainty behind the plate. They were connected to both Sean Murphy and Christian Vázquez in recent weeks, but those players are each now off the board, having been traded to Atlanta and signed with Minnesota, respectively.

Casali, 34, is a perfectly serviceable big league catcher, though he’s never really been a club’s primary option. Though he has 462 career games played, he’s never tallied more than 84 in any individual season. He’s generally been a strong defender behind the plate, having tallied 16 Defensive Runs Saved in his career and a slightly above-average mark in terms of framing. He’s not a liability at the plate either, with a career batting line of .223/.316/.392. That amounts to a wRC+ of 92, which is 8% below league average overall but roughly average for a catcher. His 27.8% strikeout rate is definitely on the high side but he also has drawn walks at a strong 10.7% rate. The Giants are surely familiar with him as he played for them in 2021 and the first half of 2022, getting dealt to the Mariners at the deadline.

Casali would be a perfectly defensible addition, but the Giants will have other options. The trade market is now headlined by the Blue Jays and their trio of backstops: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. The free agent market doesn’t have many super exciting options now that Vázquez and Willson Contreras have signed, with Austin Hedges, Roberto Pérez, Omar Narváez and Gary Sánchez some of those still out there.

None of these options are likely to break the bank from a financial perspective. Roster Resource currently pegs the Giants’ payroll at $190MM and their CBT figure at $206MM. They are getting near their franchise high payroll of $201MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though that was back in 2018. They also have plenty of room under the luxury tax, though if they succeed in their continued attempts to retain Rodón, that would significantly change the picture.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/14/22

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Teams have been quite active over the past couple of weeks and a few minor league deals slipped through the cracks. Here’s a quick roundup.

  • The Giants signed infielder Donovan Walton to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Walton, 29 in May, began 2022 with the Mariners but was traded to the Giants in May. He spent the year as a frequently-optioned depth piece for the Giants, getting into 25 MLB games and hitting .158/.179/.303, wRC+ of 31. In the minors this year, he hit .248/.353/.403, wRC+ of 94. He was non-tendered at the end of the season but has now re-joined the organization in a non-roster capacity. He has some experience at all four infield positions and left field, giving the club a versatile depth option. If he makes it back onto the 40-man, he’s now out of options and will have to stick on the active roster or else be designated for assignment.
  • The Braves signed catcher Joe Hudson to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Hudson, 32 in May, has 18 games of MLB experience stretched across three seasons from 2018 to 2020. He spent 2022 in the Rays’ system, getting into 49 games for the Triple-A Durham Bulls. He hit .226/.345/.489 in that time for a wRC+ of 119. The Braves recently acquired Sean Murphy to be their primary catcher, but sent William Contreras and Manny Piña packing as part of the deal. The club does still have Chadwick Tromp and the oft-injured Travis d’Arnaud but Hudson will give them a depth option with major league experience.
  • The Twins signed first baseman Tyler White to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. White, 32, played for the Astros from 2016 to 2019, and a brief stint with the Dodgers, but played in Korea in 2020. He came back to North America for the past two years but has been stuck in Triple-A. Though he generally hits well, his defense is essentially limited to first base at this point, aside from brief stints at third. With the Blue Jays’ system in 2021, he hit .292/.424/.476 for a wRC+ of 141. He split 2022 between the Triple-A teams of the Braves and Brewers, hitting .230/.357/.412, 108 wRC+.
  • The Marlins signed infielder Alex De Goti to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. De Goti, 28, has spent his entire career with the Astros thus far, getting into two big league games in 2021. He spent all of 2022 in Triple-A, hitting .253/.352/.377 for a wRC+ of 87. He’s played every position on the diamond in his minor league career except for catcher, even taking the mound for the occasional mop-up stint. He should serve as a versatile depth piece for the Fish.
  • The Nationals have signed right-hander Ronald Herrera to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Herrera, 28 in May, has three innings of MLB experience, which came as a 22-year-old back in 2017 with the Yankees. He spent most of 2022 with the Double-A affiliate of the Nats, making 24 starts and throwing 129 innings. He posted a 4.40 ERA in that time with a 21.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 39.8% ground ball rate. The Nats had the worst rotation ERA in the majors in 2022, coming in at 5.97. They’ve signed Trevor Williams to help out but there’s a still a good chance they might have to rely on some depth options throughout the year.
  • The Angels signed right-hander Nash Walters to a minor league contract, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Walters, 26 in May, spent his entire career in the Brewers’ organization until getting sent to the Angels in a September 2022 trade. He made his major league debut with the Halos on the last day of the season, facing three batters, retiring one while surrendering one hit and one walk. His minor league work for 2022 amounted to 53 2/3 innings with a 4.70 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. He was non-tendered at the end of the year but has returned to the organization without taking up a spot on the 40-man.
  • The Mariners signed right-hander Jose Rodriguez to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Rodriguez, 27, tossed 21 1/3 innings with the Angels over 2019 and 2020, posting a 2.53 ERA in that time. That number looks impressive but came with an unsustainable 100% strand rate and .226 batting average on balls in play. His 14.1% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate suggest he was lucky to allow so few earned runs. He spent 2022 in the Mets’ system, tossing 76 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 4.95 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate and 42.2% ground ball rate. If he’s able to crack Seattle’s 40-man roster, he still has two option years remaining and can be moved between the majors and minors with regularity.

Giants, Carlos Correa Agree To 13-Year Deal

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The Giants have landed the star player they’d been seeking. San Francisco is reportedly in agreement with Carlos Correa on a 13-year, $350MM contract. The deal doesn’t contain any opt-out provisions but the Boras Corporation client will receive a full no-trade clause.

It’ll be the third team in as many years for Correa, who turned 28 in September. The longtime Astro hit free agency last winter. Generally regarded as the top player in that offseason’s class, he didn’t find the long-term megadeal he’d sought after declining a qualifying offer from Houston.

After the lockout, Correa pivoted to a shorter-term gamble on himself, inking a three-year guarantee with the Twins that paid him the largest per-year salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player in MLB history. That deal allowed Correa to opt out and retest the market this winter, and he was ineligible for another QO thanks to the CBA’s prohibition on a player receiving the offer multiple times in his career.

Correa’s 2022 campaign got off to a slower than expected start. He hit .243/.309/.324 in April, presumably dealing with some lingering effects of his late signing and cold early-season weather that took a toll on his power output. In the first week of May, Correa dealt with a scare when he was struck on the right hand on a check swing. Initial x-rays indicated he may have fractured his right middle finger, but follow-up testing revealed he suffered only a bruise. He still landed on the injured list but returned after a minimal stint. Aside from a brief stay on the COVID-19 list a few weeks later, Correa stayed healthy the rest of the way.

After returning from the finger bruise, Correa was one of the sport’s best players. He hit .299/.376/.488 in 487 plate appearances from mid-May onwards. Among 133 qualified hitters over that stretch, he ranked 14th in on-base percentage and 23rd in slugging. That excellent finish brought his season line up to .291/.366/.467 in 136 games. Correa’s overall offensive productivity was 40 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s right in line with the levels he’d established late in his time in Houston. Correa stumbled in the abbreviated 2020 campaign but had respective wRC+ tallies 42 and 33 points above average in 2019 and ’21.

Over the past four seasons, the former first overall pick has tallied just under 1800 plate appearances. He’s hit .281/.359/.481 with a strong 10.6% walk rate and a lower than average 20.4% strikeout percentage. Correa has posted a hard contact rate north of 42% in each of the past four seasons, well above the 35-36% league marks. Broadly speaking, there’s nothing to nitpick with his offensive ability. He makes contact, has strong plate discipline and has topped 20 home runs in six of the seven 162-game seasons of his career. Correa has unsurprisingly been better against left-handers than righties, but he’s been excellent against pitchers of either handedness. He owns a .291/.386/.482 career mark against southpaws, while he’s hit .274/.346/.477 against same-handed arms.

Correa had some injury issues earlier in his career, missing time in 2018 with back discomfort and fracturing a rib in 2019. He’s only twice topped 600 plate appearances in a season, but the aforementioned finger contusion is the only non-virus ailment that has sent him to the IL within the past three seasons. With his recent health and the strong finish to his 2022 campaign, his camp made the easy call to opt out of the final two years and $70.2MM on his Twins deal.

For the second straight winter, he was the top free agent option in a loaded shortstop class. Even with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson hitting the open market, Correa was the best available shortstop. Aaron Judge was the market’s top free agent overall on the heels of an MVP-winning, 62-homer season, but one can argue Correa was the best long-term bet available.

In addition to his strong offensive track record, the two-time All-Star is typically one of the sport’s most valuable defenders. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as an above-average shortstop in every season of his career. Altogether, DRS has pegged him as 70 runs better than par in more than 7600 innings. Statcast hasn’t been as bullish, but it also generally rates him as a plus gloveman. Statcast has pegged Correa as 17 runs above average since it began tracking defense in 2016, including plus grades each year from 2018-21.

Correa’s defense marks were particularly excellent during his final season in Houston, when he rated as +20 runs by DRS and +9 runs at Statcast. He secured his first career Gold Glove award in the process. This year’s reviews weren’t so impressive. DRS still considered him a net positive at three runs above average, but that was the lowest mark of his career. Statcast pegged him two runs below par, his first below-average showing by that metric since 2017.

Defensive metrics can vary on an annual basis, and it doesn’t seem San Francisco’s concerned with this past season’s mid-tier showing. Correa boasts a plus arm and has generally been very sure-handed. There may be some trepidation about how his 6’4″, 220 pound frame will hold up into his mid-late 30’s, particularly since he’s only an average runner. With his hands and arm strength, however, the Giants can at least project above-average glovework for the next few seasons.

San Francisco has four-time Gold Glove winner Brandon Crawford under contract for another year. They didn’t enter the offseason needing shortstop help necessarily, but their infield around Crawford had its share of question marks. San Francisco re-signed Wilmer Flores to a two-year guarantee to add a productive righty bat to the mix at first, second or third base. Tommy La Stella is under contract for another season but hasn’t played well since landing in San Francisco. J.D. Davis and David Villar are on hand as corner options, while Thairo Estrada can cover the middle infield and adds a solid righty bat.

There are a lot of moving pieces available for skipper Gabe Kapler, but adding Correa figures to solidify the left side of the infield with an everyday pair. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote last month the team planned to move Crawford to the hot corner if they were to sign Correa. Crawford has never played an inning outside of shortstop in the majors, but he figures to handle the less demanding position well.

While shortstop itself may not have been a priority for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office, adding impact talent certainly was. The Giants made no secret of their desire to land Judge. When he returned to the Bronx, the club pivoted to Correa — the clear top hitter remaining. He’ll now become the highlight acquisition of the offseason, joining outfielder Mitch Haniger and pitchers Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling as players brought in to try to rebound from an 81-81 campaign.

Doing so requires one of the largest investments in major league history. The $350MM guarantee checks in as the fourth-largest ever. It’s the second-biggest free agent deal of all-time, just narrowly below the $360MM deal that Judge inked a week ago. Correa becomes the second free agent to land a 13-year contract, matching the record length secured by Bryce Harper with the Phillies over the 2018-19 offseason. The deal runs through the 2035 campaign, what will be Correa’s age-40 season.

That kind of lengthy megadeal has become en vogue this offseason. Turner and Bogaerts signed 11-year deals with the Phillies and Padres, respectively, taking them each through their own age-40 seasons. Judge inked a nine-year deal that paid him through age 39. MLBTR had predicted Correa for a nine-year, $288MM contract at the start of the offseason. As with Turner and Bogaerts, those deals lasted longer than anticipated, with each correspondingly securing a greater guarantee than expected.

That has involved a bit of a tradeoff with regards to annual salary, however. Correa’s deal comes with an average annual value around $26.92MM, a mark that’s outside the top 25 in MLB history. That’s well lower than the $32MM per-year salary MLBTR had projected, with the Puerto Rico native electing to sacrifice some money on an annual basis to secure a larger total sum. Doing so could very well position him to spend the remainder of his career in the Bay Area.

From a team perspective, spreading the guarantee over a longer term adds more future downside but has the more immediate benefit of reducing the club’s luxury tax hit. A team’s CBT commitments are based on deals’ average annual values, and the $26.92MM mark is more manageable in that regard.

That’s now relevant for the Giants, whose payroll has spiked dramatically. The specific financial breakdown isn’t yet clear, but an evenly distributed salary would push the Giants 2023 payroll around $190MM, as projected by Roster Resource. Their luxury tax figure is about $206MM, $27MM below the base threshold. San Francisco’s spending is well above the $150-155MM range of the past few seasons, but it’s still shy of their $200MM franchise-record Opening Day mark from 2018.

The Giants could keep pushing forward as they jostle for position atop a stacked NL West with the Dodgers and Padres. The bullpen is still a question mark, and San Francisco could look into upgrades at first base and/or center field. The Giants remained involved in the bidding for ace Carlos Rodón as of this afternoon as well, although signing both Correa and the top remaining free agent starting pitcher may push beyond their financial comfort level.

As for Correa’s now-former team, they’ll be left to regroup having missed out on their top target of the winter. Minnesota offered a 10-year deal worth $285MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. That came with a higher annual salary than the offer Correa actually accepted, but the Twins were apparently reluctant to commit deep into his 30’s. They’re now facing an uncertain shortstop situation, with Kyle Farmer and Royce Lewis looking like the top internal options.

Minnesota has already had some discussions with Swanson this offseason, keeping tabs on him as a fallback possibility to Correa. The organization should have a decent amount of financial flexibility and could now pivot more strongly after Swanson if they’re determined to address shortstop. They’ve also been linked to Rodón at various points and could try to allocate their spending capacity to a top-of-the-rotation arm. The Twins surely aren’t done in any event, although that’ll be little consolation for the front office and fanbase for the moment. Because Correa was ineligible for the qualifying offer, they don’t receive any compensation for his departure.

It’s the latest massive move in an offseason that has gained plenty of steam since the calendar flipped to December. Correa joins an increasingly loaded division and, more generally, a very competitive National League. In the process, he becomes the new face of the Giants — a role the club hopes he’ll effectively hold well into the next decade.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Correa and the Giants had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM contract. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the deal didn’t include any opt-out provisions but contained a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Carlos Rodon’s Market

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10:42pm: The Yankees have indeed put forth an offer to Rodon, Heyman writes. There’s apparently still a fair bit of work to do in order to get a deal done, as Heyman indicates there’s a notable gap between New York’s proposal and Rodon’s asking price.

2:55pm: Carlos Rodon is the clear top pitcher remaining on the open market, and despite a lofty asking price reportedly in the $200MM neighborhood, multiple clubs remain in pursuit of the left-hander. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported yesterday that the Yankees are prepping a formal offer for Rodon, and Brendan Kuty of NJ.com now tweets that the Yankees appear to be Rodon’s preferred landing spot. However, Kuty adds that both the Twins and the Cardinals both remain “seriously in play” for the southpaw as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that even after agreeing to identical two-year, $25MM deals with both Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea this week, the Giants are still involved in Rodon’s market.

The Twins’ interest in Rodon is perhaps contingent on the looming decision of Carlos Correa who, like Rodon, is represented by the Boras Corporation. Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests that Correa remains the Twins’ top priority, though he adds that the team nonetheless made a pitch to Rodon earlier in the month (Twitter thread). Given that the Giants are viewed as Minnesota’s primary competition for Correa, it’s fair to wonder whether both clubs might be prioritizing Correa with the intent of pivoting to Rodon should they be spurned by Correa. That both players have the same agent makes concurrent negotiations a smoother process.

After agreeing to a three-year deal with free-agent catcher Christian Vazquez yesterday, Minnesota projects to about $107MM in total commitments for the upcoming season. That’s well shy of the more than $140MM they spent on last year’s Opening Day roster, but not so far south of the mark that it becomes easy to envision a scenario in which both Correa and Rodon sign on to call Target Field home. The Twins have drawn interest in right fielder Max Kepler this winter, but even in the event of a Kepler deal coming together, a Correa/Rodon combo would push Minnesota well past $150MM in total payroll for the first time in franchise history and would likely lock them into $75-80MM worth of annual commitments to the trio of Correa, Rodon and Byron Buxton.

The Giants, meanwhile, are roughly $43MM from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll even after their deals with Stripling and Manaea. Similarly, though, it’s difficult to see both players landing in San Francisco. The Giants are already a bit north of $180MM in terms of luxury obligations, and that pairing would likely push them into tax territory for the first time. That said, the Giants have topped $200MM in payroll before, and the only player currently signed beyond the 2024 season is Mitch Haniger, who’s signed through 2025. The Giants have been averse to long-term contracts under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, though they made hefty bids for both Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper under his watch.

As for the Cardinals, they were linked to Rodon this past weekend, and Kuty paints them as a fairly prominent player in the bidding. The Cards would make for something of a surprise bidder, having already spent $87.5MM to bring Willson Contreras to St. Louis on a five-year contract. Signing Rodon would likely mean doling out the largest commitment in franchise history and pushing payroll to height never before seen in St. Louis. The Cardinals’ current record for Opening Day payroll is a bit more north of $163MM, in 2021, but they’re already at that rough level right now Rodon could well take them north of $190MM.

Circling back to the Yankees, they at one point reportedly hoped to limit any Rodon deals to four or five years in length, though that doesn’t seem likely to get them in the ballpark. With Judge and Cole both locked into a combined $76MM in annual commitments through the 2028 season (2029 in Judge’s case), adding Rodon to the mix would require budgeting more than $100MM annually for a trio of players for at least the next six years. Giancarlo Stanton is under contract through 2027, as well, further complicating the long-term scenario for Rodon.

At present, Roster Resource projects a $266MM luxury-tax ledger for the Yankees. They’re already set to pay the tax for a second straight season, so they’ll owe $6MM on the first $20MM by which they cross the $233MM threshold and $8.5MM on the next $20MM. Once they reach $273MM in luxury obligations, they’ll be taxed at a rate of 75%, and they’d be taxed at 90% on any dollars beyond the $293MM mark.

Speculatively penciling in an even $30MM AAV (which could, of course, be off by a few million dollars one way or another), the Yankees would jump from their currently projected $11.74MM of penalties all the way up to about $32.65MM in penalties. In other words, they’d pay an approximate $21MM in taxes on top of Rodon’s actual salary for the 2023 season. Passing the luxury threshold by more than $40MM would also drop the Yankees’ top pick in the 2023 draft by 10 places, and any Rodon deal would make it quite difficult to drop under the tax line (and avoid even steeper tax rates as a third-time offender) in 2024.

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