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Shota Imanaga To Accept Cubs’ Qualifying Offer

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Shota Imanaga will be returning to the Cubs, as The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reports that the left-hander has accepted the team’s one-year, $22.025MM qualifying offer.  The surprising decision means that Imanaga stays put after his time in Wrigleyville seemed to be over, following a series of declined contract options on the part of the Cubs and Imanaga himself.

The four-year, $53MM deal that Imanaga signed with Chicago in January 2024 guaranteed Imanaga $23MM over the first two seasons, and this offseason presented both sides with decisions.  The Cubs had to decide whether or not to exercise a three-year option on Imanaga’s services that would’ve paid him $57.75MM over the 2026-28 seasons, and the team decided to decline.  Imanaga then had a $15.25MM player option for just 2026 that he also declined, even though exercising that option would’ve then created a $42MM club option for the Cubs for next winter covering the 2027-28 seasons that (if declined) would’ve created a $15MM player option for Imanaga for 2027.

The Cubs issued Imanaga the qualifying offer to ensure some compensation if Imanaga signed elsewhere, yet as it turned out, Imanaga will indeed take a one-year pact to remain, with an extra $7.025MM added beyond the price of his player option.  He would’ve locked in at least $30.5MM for himself by exercising his player option and generating that other player option for next winter, so he is currently leaving $8.475MM on the table given how this rather complicated situation turned out.

A 2026 season more in line with Imanaga’s impressive 2024 rookie campaign will easily land a multi-year contract worth far more than $8.475MM next winter, even though the lefty turns 33 in September.  He’ll be able to re-enter next year’s free agent market without the QO compensation attached to his services.  This removes one obstacle for Imanaga in free agency next winter, but more consistency on the mound will be the deciding factor.

Imanaga posted a 3.73 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, and an elite 4.6% walk rate over 144 2/3 innings for Chicago this season.  Apart from his great control and the solid bottom-line ERA, the rest of Imanaga’s peripherals were almost all well below the league average.  The problems included a lot of hard and high-impact contact, as only three pitchers allowed more home runs than Imanaga’s 31 big flies in 2025.

A hamstring strain cost Imanaga most of May and June, but he still managed a 2.40 ERA over his first 75 innings of the year before things started to turn in the second half.  Twenty of Imanaga’s 31 home runs allowed came during his last 69 2/3 innings of the season, resulting in a 5.17 ERA.  Things didn’t get any better in the playoffs, as the southpaw posted an 8.10 ERA and gave up three more homers in 6 2/3 frames of postseason work.

These issues with the long ball were also apparent in Imanaga’s 2024 season, if not to the same extreme level.  He also allowed less hard contact and had a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, while delivering a 2.91 ERA over 173 1/3 innings.  This excellent debut season earned Imanaga a fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting, a fifth-place finish in Cy Young Award voting, and his first All-Star nod.

Given how well Imanaga was seemingly adjusting to the big leagues over his first season and a half, it seemed like a lock that the Cubs were going to exercise their options to keep Imanaga in the fold through 2028.  However, his rough finish to the season seemingly changed the Cubs’ mind about such a substantial commitment.

Likewise, Imanaga and his reps at Octagon could’ve been concerned over how the market would react to his homer-heavy final 69 2/3 innings.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Imanaga 22nd on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a three-year, $45MM deal, but Imanaga and his reps at Octagon might have viewed the qualifying offer as an impediment to an acceptable contract.  If Imanaga was going to have to settle for a short-term “prove it” type of deal anyway, accepting the QO allows him to aim for a bounce-back season in a familiar environment, and for a bigger one-year average annual value.

Returning to the Cubs also allows Imanaga to play for a team that should again be playoff contenders.  Starting pitching should still continue to be a need for Chicago even with Imanaga back, but at least one box has now been checked off of the team’s rotation plans.  Imanaga joins Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, and Colin Rea in the projected starting five, with Justin Steele theoretically able to return from a UCL revision surgery relatively early in the 2026 campaign.  Javier Assad and Ben Brown are also on hand, but the Cubs will want to bolster this group with at least one more reliable starter, given how the team didn’t trust its depth (including Imanaga) during the postseason.

Inset photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski — Imagn Images

Mets To Release Frankie Montas, Select Nick Morabito

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The Mets announced that they have designated Frankie Montas for assignment, and the team has requested unconditional release waivers on the right-hander.  The transaction removes Montas from the 40-man roster, allowing the team to select the contract of outfield prospect Nick Morabito in advance of today’s Rule 5 deadline.  The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported on Morabito’s selection earlier today.  Reporter Michael Marino was the first to pass on the news that Montas would be designated for assignment, with SNY’s Andy Martino providing the later update that Montas was being released.

The DFA period is essentially irrelevant since no team will claim or make a trade offer for Montas, who is owed $17MM in 2026 and will miss all or most of the season while recovering from a torn UCL.  As such, today’s move closes the book on Montas’ Queens tenure after less than a year, as he signed his two-year, $34MM free agent deal with the Mets last December.

Montas ended up tossing just 38 2/3 innings over nine appearances in a Mets uniform.  Montas suffered a lat strain in Spring Training and didn’t make his Mets debut until June, and he then struggled to a 6.28 ERA and lost his rotation job.  Even worse injury news emerged in late August, as Montas underwent UCL surgery.  It wasn’t known if Montas had a Tommy John surgery or a brace procedure, but either way, 2026 is going to be another lost year for the veteran righty.

Unsurprisingly, Montas didn’t trigger the opt-out clause after the first year of his contract, and thus he remains on the Mets’ books for a $17MM salary in 2026.  Montas probably won’t land his next contract until next winter, and a minor league deal seems like the next step for a pitcher with such a shaky recent track record.  Beyond his disastrous 2025 season, Montas also appeared in just one game in 2023 due to shoulder surgery, stemming from shoulder issues that led to a rough end to his 2022 campaign.

He recovered to toss 150 2/3 innings of 4.84 ERA ball with the Reds and Brewers in 2024, which was enough to convince the Mets that Montas might be close to regaining his early-career form as a staple of the Athletics rotation.  Instead, the signing will go down as a total bust for David Stearns’ front office, and one of several ill-advised pitching moves that contributed to New York’s disappointing 83-win season.

Morabito was a second-round pick for the Mets in the 2022 draft, and his selection to the 40-man roster means that rival teams won’t be able to select the 22-year-old in December’s Rule 5 Draft.  Known for his excellent speed, Morabito has stolen 130 bases in 160 attempts during his pro career, including 49 swipes for Double-A Binghamton in 2025.  This was Morabito’s first time playing Double-A ball and he hit .273/.348/.385 with six homers and 27 doubles to go along with his impressive stolen-base total.

MLB Pipeline ranks Morabito 16th amongst all Mets prospects, and the scouting report notes that Morabito’s offensive potential is held back by his tendency to hit too many grounders.  His speed can turn some of those grounders into singles, of course, but “elevating on contact will be a big goal…if he is going to have a chance to be more than a speedy, high-contact fourth outfielder.”  Defensively, Morabito is seen as a decent outfielder who can handle all three positions, though his modest throwing arm probably makes right field his least-effective spot on the grass.

Red Sox Interested In Bo Bichette, Kyle Schwarber

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With holes to fill in the lineup, the Red Sox are exploring two of the bigger free agent bats on the market.  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that “the Red Sox have shown interest in” Bo Bichette, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the club has likewise “checked in on Kyle Schwarber.”

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s recently commented that Boston is looking to add extra pop to its lineup, and either player would certainly fit in this regard.  Schwarber is an elite power bat coming off a career year, hitting 56 homers and slashing .240/.365/.563 over 724 plate appearances for the Phillies.  Bichette rebounded from an injury-shortened down year in 2024 to hit .311/.357/.483 with 18 homers over 628 plate appearances for the Blue Jays this sesason.

The injury bug did bite again for Bichette, as a knee sprain kept Bichette sidelined for most of September and most of the Jays’ playoff run until he was able to return in the World Series, but he still did plenty to re-establish himself as one of the preeminent infield bats in the sport.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Bichette second on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected the shortstop to land an eight-year, $208MM contract.

Schwarber ranked ninth on the list with a five-year, $135MM projection.  Schwarber is entering his age-33 season and is basically a full-time designated hitter, but while teams have traditionally been wary of committing major dollars to such aging and defensively limited players, Schwarber’s numbers are so outsized that he’ll very likely command a lengthy contract.  There is also a sense that his market could be driven upwards by the Phillies, who have been very open about their desire to re-sign the slugger.

The Red Sox are very familiar with Schwarber, as he posted big numbers and quickly became a clubhouse favorite after Boston acquired him from the Nationals at the 2021 trade deadline.  Schwarber was just a rental pickup as he entered free agency that winter and signed his four-year, $79MM deal with Philadelphia.  On paper, Schwarber might not be an entirely ideal fit for the Sox since he’ll monopolize the DH spot and add another left-handed bat to an already lefty-leaning lineup, but these could be relatively minor concerns given the upside of Schwarber’s offense.

Bichette is a right-handed hitter, but his defensive fit is an open question, as whether or not Bichette remains at shortstop will be one of the key subplots of his free agency.  Bichette’s defense has been a question mark for years, and such public metrics as Defensive Runs Saved (-12) and Outs Above Average (-13) hated his glovework in 2025.

In the early days of the offseason, suitors “haven’t been scared off of Bichette at shortstop,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes, and it isn’t yet known if Bichette and his reps at Vayner Sports are marketing him strictly as a shortstop, or if Bichette is open to a position change.  He did make his big league debut at second base during the World Series, in a nod to the physical limitations of his PCL sprain.

As it relates to the Red Sox, Trevor Story is lined up as the team’s shortstop.  Story’s own defensive metrics were well below average in 2025, marking a surprising decline for a player who has been a very strong defensive shortstop for much of his career.  Breslow has said that Story will play shortstop next year, but since Story has shown a willingness to play other positions in the past (he was Boston’s regular second baseman when healthy in 2022), it is possible some shifting could go on within the Sox infield.  The simpler solution would be to just slot Bichette at second base alongside Story at shortstop, or Bichette could potentially factor into Boston’s third base picture.

The Sox have a prominent free agent infielder of their own in Alex Bregman, who MLBTR projects for a six-year, $160MM contract.  This puts Bregman as less expensive than Bichette and only a bit pricier than Schwarber.  Beyond just the cost of pure dollars, the Sox would need to give up draft pick compensation for signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like Bichette or Schwarber, whereas Bregman could be re-signed for just money.  Bregman is also a known commodity for the organization, and he made a big impact both on and off the field in his one season in Boston.

That said, Bichette is also almost four years younger than Bregman and five years to the day younger than Schwarber.  Top prospect Marcelo Mayer made his MLB debut in 2025 and seems poised to take on a more regular role somewhere in Boston’s infield, so Mayer could conceivably take over Bregman’s old spot at third base while Bichette plays second or shortstop.  With Triston Casas rumored to be a trade candidate, first base has also been mentioned as target area for Boston, with names like Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto, and Munetaka Murakami floated as speculative candidates to join the Sox.

White Sox Receiving Trade Interest In Kyle Teel

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White Sox catcher Kyle Teel has been drawing trade interest, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon.  This item comes a few days after another report indicating that Sox backstop Edgar Quero was also receiving trade inquiries.

It would take “a spectacular return” for Chicago to deal either catcher, in the words of Rosenthal and Sammon.  This aligns with recent comments made by White Sox GM Chris Getz, who told Sox Machine’s James Fegan that “I don’t think” it was time for the Sox to consider trading from their depth behind the plate.

The fact that rival clubs are even asking about Teel or Quero is a reminder that teams make all sorts of due-diligence inquiries about many players, no matter how seemingly unlikely a trade would seem.  Teel and Quero are top-100 prospects who just finished their rookie seasons, and are under team control through the 2031 season.  On paper, there is little reason why a rebuilding team like the White Sox would be open to dealing either catcher so early in their careers.

Even if the Sox might already have one of Teel or Quero specifically in mind as their proverbial catcher of the future, there’s no immediate reason for the club to move the other, especially when the duo can split time behind the plate in 2026 and also gain extra at-bats via the DH role.  Catching depth is such a rare commodity around the league that it isn’t surprising to see teams inquire about what is technically a surplus for Chicago at the position (Korey Lee is also on the 40-man roster), but for that same reason, the Sox are surely wary about trading from this surplus.

Teel is the higher-profile of the two catchers, as the Red Sox selected him 14th overall in the 2023 draft and Teel was perhaps the key piece of the trade package Chicago received for Garrett Crochet last offseason.  Called up to the Show in early June, Teel made a strong showing in his rookie year, hitting .273/.375/.411 with eight home runs in his first 297 plate appearances against big league pitching.  By comparison, Quero hit .268/.333/.356 with five homers in 403 PA, and neither catcher was particularly impressive from a defensive standpoint.

Pirates Interested In Kyle Schwarber, Showed Interest In Josh Naylor

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Pirates GM Ben Cherington said last week that he had “more [financial] flexibility than we’ve had in other offseasons I’ve been in Pittsburgh,” and subsequent reports indicated that Bucs ownership could approach the $40MM mark with their spending plans this winter.  This willingness to spend has translated to some early interest in two of the best hitters on the free agent market, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Pirates have interest in Kyle Schwarber, and also had interest in Josh Naylor before Naylor re-signed with the Mariners.

The exact nature of the Bucs’ talks with Naylor weren’t specified, yet Passan indicated that the Pirates were prepared to offer Naylor more than $78MM.  This would’ve been, by a wide margin, the priciest free agent deal in Pirates history.  Francisco Liriano’s three-year, $39MM deal from December 2014 remains the biggest guarantee the perennially low-spending Buccos have ever given to a free agent.

Naylor re-upped with the Mariners for five years and $92.5MM.  Beyond just the money, there was plenty of mutual interest between Naylor and the M’s in continuing their relationship, as evidenced by the fact that Naylor agreed to a new deal so soon after the free agent market opened.  Seattle looks well-positioned to keep contending throughout Naylor’s tenure, so it likely would’ve taken a drastic overpay from the Pirates to convince him to leave the Mariners for a Pittsburgh club that has struggled through seven straight losing seasons.

Along these same lines, Schwarber is expected to receive plenty of offers from big-market contenders, including his former team in Philadelphia.  MLB Trade Rumors projects Schwarber to receive a five-year, $135MM contract, even though he is entering his age-33 season and is essentially a DH-only player at this point in his career.  Schwarber’s huge power, consistent production, and reputation as a clubhouse leader will very likely outweigh concerns about his age, and the Phillies (like the Mariners with Naylor) are prioritizing bringing Schwarber back into the fold.

This being said, the fact that Schwarber and Naylor are even being mentioned in connection to the Pirates is eye-opening, and perhaps indicative of how uncharacteristically aggressive Pittsburgh may be in trying to upgrade its lineup.  While the Pirates have been rebuilding for the bulk of Cherington’s tenure, his last couple of offseasons have seen the GM spread out his limited spending capacity over multiple players, with the idea of addressing several needs rather than making one single big strike.  The tactic makes sense on paper, but it hasn’t really worked in practice, as the Bucs have remained under the .500 mark.

With this in mind, Pittsburgh might now be more open to adding one clear-cut star bat to its lineup, even if it means going outside the team’s usual financial comfort zone.  The very top of the free agent hitting market (i.e. Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette) is likely still out of the question for the Pirates.  But, if Schwarber and Naylor are on the radar, players like Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, Eugenio Suarez, Kazuma Okamoto, and any number of other available bats could now conceivably be within Pittsburgh’s spending range.

Bucs fans can be forgiven for taking a “we’ll believe it when we see it” stance on the Pirates’ pursuit of major free agents.  That said, Paul Skenes’ immediate impact as arguably baseball’s best pitcher has created more pressure on the team to return to contention while Skenes is still under team control.  Skenes and the Pirates’ collection of promising young arms was let down by a dismal offense in 2025, so adding hitting is the obvious top priority on the team’s offseason checklist.

The common theory going into the winter was that Pittsburgh was again going to trade from its stockpile of hurlers to obtain some much-needed hitting help.  Cherington had already flatly shot down any possibility of Skenes being dealt, but conceivably any of the less-experienced arms could be dealt for an equally promising young bat.  As for the Buccos’ more seasoned pitchers, the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported today that Johan Oviedo is drawing trade interest, and Mitch Keller has been mentioned in trade rumors for months.

Keller is also the Pirates’ second-highest paid player, so dealing the right-hander would free up more payroll room for further moves.  This could mean more exploration at the higher end of the free agent market, or the Pirates could conceivably take on some salary in a trade for a more expensive hitter.  Trading Keller for a similarly-priced hitter would be the smoothest way to accomplish this goal, though such an easy match isn’t obvious on the trade front.

The fact that the Pirates were looking at Naylor doesn’t necessarily mean that the team isn’t satisfied with incumbent first baseman Spencer Horwitz, as Horwitz could be moved to DH in the event that another first baseman was added.  It also could mean that Pittsburgh was more broadly looking at any available top bat, and figuring out the positional fit can come after the fact.

One position that probably won’t receive much attention is shortstop, as top prospect Konnor Griffin is expected to be in the majors at some point in 2026.  This could even be as early as Opening Day, as Passan writes that “the Pirates are strongly considering giving [Griffin]…the opportunity to win their big league shortstop job” in Spring Training.  It would be a bold promotion for a 19-year-old who has only one year of pro ball under his belt, and Griffin’s resume consists of 21 Double-A games and zero Triple-A games.

Nevertheless, Griffin is viewed as perhaps the best prospect in baseball, and he looked so impressive in 2025 that he already appears to be on the verge of his MLB debut.  Putting Griffin on the Opening Day roster and keeping him in the majors throughout 2026 could eventually earn the Pirates a bonus draft pick via the Prospect Promotion Incentive program, should Griffin win Rookie of the Year honors, or if he has a top-three finish in NL MVP voting during his pre-arbitration years.

Mariners Re-Sign Josh Naylor

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The Mariners officially announced they’ve brought back Josh Naylor on a five-year deal. It’s a reported $92.5MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client.  Naylor will get a $6.5MM signing bonus upfront. He’ll make a $10MM salary in 2026, $16MM in ’27, $18MM in ’28, $20MM in ’29 and $22MM in 2030. The deal also includes a full no-trade clause and has no deferred money.

Naylor becomes the first headline name of the 2025-26 free agent class to land a new contract, just two weeks after the World Series concluded.  It counts as a surprise to see any major free agent sign their next contract this quickly, even before the players who received qualifying offers have made their decisions.  (Naylor was notably not eligible for a QO, since he was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners during the season.)

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Naylor 12th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and the five-year term matches our projection that Naylor would receive a five-year, $90MM deal.  The five-year length of Naylor’s contract also matches the longest free agent deal the Mariners have given out during Jerry Dipoto’s decade in charge of Seattle’s baseball operations department.  The M’s inked Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM pact during the 2021-22 offseason, and Ray’s contract and Yusei Kikuchi’s four-year, $56MM deal in January 2019 were the only free agent deals of the Dipoto era to exceed even two years.

There are multiple reasons behind the lack of big free agent strikes.  The Mariners’ infamous 10-year, $240MM deal with Robinson Cano from December 2013 could’ve led to some organizational wariness over blockbuster signings.  Since John Stanton’s ownership group bought the team in 2016, the M’s have only once finished a season with a top-10 payroll, and are only moving back into the middle range of spending league-wide.  There is also “Trader Jerry’s” own personal preference to build rosters via trades rather than free agents, as Dipoto has become known for being very active in negotiating swaps.  Players may have had misgivings about joining a Mariners team that has two just postseason appearances in the last 24 seasons, and hitters in particular weren’t exactly lining up to play in a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment.

With all of this in mind, there was such mutual interest between Naylor and the Mariners that it certainly seemed like the team was very willing to stretch beyond its usual free agent comfort zone.  Dipoto was open in telling the media — including Darragh McDonald on the MLBTR Podcast back in September — that re-signing Naylor was a priority for the organization, and Naylor himself was just as effusive in how much he enjoyed playing in Seattle.

Considering how Naylor performed after arriving in the Pacific Northwest, it’s easy to see why both sides moved quickly on a long-term deal.  Naylor was already enjoying a strong season with the Diamondbacks, but with Arizona falling out of contention, the D’Backs dealt the slugger a week before the trade deadline, landing rookie left-hander Brandyn Garcia and pitching prospect Ashton Izzi.

Naylor proceeded to hit .299/.341/.490 with nine homers and 19 stolen bases (without a single caught stealing) over 210 regular-season plate appearances for the M’s, and he followed that up with a .340/.392/.574 slash line over 51 postseason PA.  Adding this type of pop into the lineup was perhaps the primary reason the Mariners won the AL West, and then outlasted the Tigers in the ALDS before falling just short of the first World Series berth in franchise history in losing the ALCS to the Blue Jays in seven games.

This kind of success made the Mariners want to more or less bring the band back together for 2026, which was no small feat since Naylor, Jorge Polanco, and Eugenio Suarez (among others) were all set for free agency.  Re-signing Naylor is the first major domino to fall, and it now remains to be seen if either Polanco or Suarez can also be retained in the wake of the team’s sizeable commitment in Naylor.  The M’s entered the offseason with approximately $34MM to spend, according to Dipoto’s statements after the playoff run was over, with more money potentially available at the deadline if more in-season reinforcements were required.

For now, the Mariners and their fans can at least enjoy the idea of Naylor suiting up at T-Mobile Park for the next five seasons.  Naylor turns 29 in June, so his contract will run through his age-33 season.  There has been some league-wide hesitancy in recent years about giving major contracts to first base-only players (especially as those players enter their 30s), yet Naylor’s production outside of just his stretch run with the Mariners makes him a solid choice for a five-year investment.

Naylor’s 128 wRC+ in 2025 was a career high, narrowly topping the 127 wRC+ he posted with the Guardians in 2023.  Since emerging as a regular with Cleveland in 2022, Naylor has hit .275/.336/.464 with 88 home runs, translating to a 123 wRC+ and 9.9 fWAR over the last four seasons.  His barrel and hard-hit ball rates are okay but uninspiring, and his walk rate from 2022-25 was below average, so Naylor doesn’t exactly fit the profile of a classic slugging first baseman.

His biggest offensive weapon is his ability to make contact, as Naylor is among the league’s more difficult players to strike out though he is prone to chasing pitches off the plate.  There is also the amusing oddity of Naylor’s 30-for-32 record at stealing bases in 2025, which speaks to his skill as an opportunistic baserunner despite being one of the slowest players in baseball.  Defensively, public metrics are mixed on his glovework.  The Outs Above Average metric has him solidly above average with +12 OAA, while his -6 Defensive Runs Saved paints a less-flattering picture of his work at first base.

Naylor joins Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez as Seattle players locked up through at least the 2029 season, and Rodriguez’s deal could actually extend through 2039 depending on a complicated set of options following the 2029 campaign.  These three All-Star position players, veteran righty Luis Castillo, and a core of homegrown starters (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller) have become the building blocks of an AL West title team that looks to remain competitive for at least the rest of the decade.

Though many pundits — including three of us at MLBTR — predicted Naylor would re-sign the Mariners, the fact that he has found a new deal so suddenly creates an interesting ripple effect on the rest of the free agent class.  Teams in need of lineup help have one less big bat to consider, and the first base market in particular has now lost a name many teams would’ve considered as perhaps a preferred alternative to Pete Alonso, Munetaka Murakami, or Kazuma Okamoto.  Murakami or Okamoto could be deployed at third base and Cody Bellinger could be viewed as a first baseman or outfielder in equal measure, depending on a suitor’s needs.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Mariners and Naylor were closing in on a five-year deal. Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston had the guarantee landing in the $90-100MM range. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the $92.5MM figure and the absence of deferred money. Robert Murray of FanSided first noted the $6.5MM bonus and the full no-trade clause. Andrew Destin of The Associated Press had the specific salary breakdown.

Inset photo courtesy of Stephen Brashear — Imagn Images

Mariners Acquire Robinson Ortiz From Dodgers

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The Mariners and Dodgers each announced that Seattle has acquired left-hander Robinson Ortiz in exchange for minor league right-hander Tyler Gough.

Neither player has any big league experience, but the trade is likely more about the Dodgers’ desire to clear a spot on their 40-man roster.  Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and Friday is the non-tender deadline, making for a very busy upcoming week of roster churning.

Interestingly, it was only 10 days ago that Los Angeles selected Ortiz’s contract to the 40-man roster, but the Dodgers have now changed course and sent Ortiz to Seattle.  L.A. now has 38 places filled on its 40-man, while the Mariners have at least 39 spots addressed and potentially a full 40 depending on when Josh Naylor’s new contract is made official.

Ortiz (who turns 26 in January) had spent his entire pro career in the Dodgers organization prior to today’s trade.  Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and multiple injury problems, Ortiz pitched only 22 2/3 innings over a five-year span covering the 2020-24 seasons, but the 2025 campaign represented some return to relative normalcy.  The southpaw posted a 2.73 ERA and 28.3% strikeout rate over 59 1/3 combined innings at three different minor league levels, with Ortiz making his debuts at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels last year.

A nasty slider/sinker combo has led to a lot of strikeouts for Ortiz, though control has continued to be an issue, as evidenced by his 13.2% walk rate in 2025.  Seattle is notably thin in left-handed pitching, as Gabe Speier currently represents the only lefty slated to be part of the Mariners’ bullpen mix next year.  Ortiz adds a bit more depth in that department, and there appears to be plenty of upside for Ortiz as a relief weapon if he can cut back on the free passes.

Gough was a ninth-round pick for the Mariners in the 2022 draft, and he posted a 4.66 ERA over 125 2/3 innings at A-level Modesto in 2023-24, starting 32 of his 33 career games.  A Tommy John surgery in September 2024 has since kept Gough off the mound, though the usual TJ recovery timeline should put the right-hander in line to be ready for a healthy Spring Training come February.

Emilio Pagan Receiving Interest From “At Least 10 Teams”

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Free agent reliever Emilio Pagan is a popular figure now that the market has opened, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that “at least 10 teams” have reached out to Pagan and his reps at the Ballengee Group.  A return to the Reds is also a possibility since Wittenmyer says the two sides have had some talks, though Cincinnati president of baseball operations Nick Krall didn’t give any hints on the subject.

“I don’t want to say yes or no. I don’t know,” Krall said about a potential new contract with Pagan.  “I loved Emilio.  He was great for our club.  I would absolutely be open to bringing him back.  It just depends on how everything fits together.”

Krall made similar comments praising Pagan back in October, and the reliever also expressed his own desire to return to the Reds.  Despite this mutual interest, Wittenmyer feels the amount of league-wide interest in Pagan could push his price tag beyond the Reds’ comfort zone.  Krall has stated that Cincinnati’s 2026 payroll will roughly match its 2025 payroll, which sat in the $116MM-$119MM range by season’s end.

With a limited budget and multiple roster needs to address, Wittenmyer believes the Reds will again “be waiting out the market for value buys” in free agency.  This could mean that Pagan might’ve signed elsewhere by the time the Reds are prepared to more fully dig into the market, or the club might seek out less-expensive bullpen reinforcements.

It was a little over two years ago that the Reds signed Pagan to a two-year, $16MM contract in his previous trip through free agency.  The deal allowed Pagan to opt out last winter, but he chose to remain under contract and take his $8MM salary for 2025 — an expected move given how the right-hander posted a 4.50 ERA over 38 innings during an injury-shortened 2024 campaign.

This past season, however, saw Pagan stay healthy and deliver a fine platform year.  Pagan posted a 2.88 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate over 68 2/3 frames, and he saved 32 of his 38 chances as the Reds’ closer.  His 8.1% walk rate was a little below average and Pagan received a lot of batted-ball luck, as his .200 BABIP in 2025 perhaps balanced out his unlucky .351 BABIP from 2024.  That said, his xwOBA dropped from .307 in 2024 to .267 this year, and Pagan’s signature four-seamer was still humming along at a 95.7mph velocity, nicely setting up his devastating splitter.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Pagan 46th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected the righty to land another two-year, $16MM deal.  The contract reflects Pagan’s age (he turns 35 in May), his up-and-down tenure in Cincinnati, and how some teams may not want to pursue a reliever who has been so notoriously homer-prone throughout his career.

While Wittenmyer’s report indicates there’s obviously still plenty of teams that do have Pagan on their list of targets, it is fair to say that Pagan may not necessarily be the top choice for clubs in need of bullpen help.  Some teams may not view him as a closer at all, while others could see him as a backup option if they can’t land one of the more high-profile closers available.  Depending on how things play out or depending on how long it takes the likes of Edwin Diaz or Robert Suarez to find their next contract, there might be an opening for the Reds and Pagan if the reliever gets tired of waiting and decides to pivot back to a familiar and comfortable location.

Astros Notes: Hader, Alvarez, Arrighetti

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Astros general manager Dana Brown shared some injury updates earlier this week at the GM Meetings, including the rather troubling news that Isaac Paredes is no guarantee to be ready for Opening Day.  Brown provided some more positive news with Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle (multiple links) on some of the many other Astros players who missed significant time during the club’s injury-plagued 2025 campaign, as all of Josh Hader, Yordan Alvarez, and Spencer Arrighetti are expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Hader’s season was ended in early August by a right capsule sprain in his right shoulder.  There was some initial hope that Hader could potentially return during the playoffs, but he still hadn’t started throwing by season’s end, so it seemed unlikely that the closer would’ve been available even if Houston had reached the postseason.

Brown didn’t yet have a timetable on Hader’s recovery at his end-of-season press conference, but said this week that Hader has now thrown off a mound three times.  The plan is for Hader to have his regular winter throwing program and “hopefully, we’ll get him ramped up sometime early to mid-February…he’s on course to come back and be there for Opening Day,” Brown said.

As Rome noted, losing Hader ended up devastating Houston’s relief corps.  Hader had been the anchor of the bullpen, posting a 2.05 ERA, 36.9% strikeout rate, and 7.8% walk rate across 52 2/3 innings while closing down 28 of 29 save opportunities.  While Bryan Abreu performed respectably well in Hader’s place, losing a star closer further thinned out a bullpen that was already missing other arms due to injury, and it added to Houston’s mountain of health woes.

Having Alvarez for only 48 games was perhaps the most impactful of all the Astros’ injuries.  The three-time All-Star was sidelined mostly by a hand sprain that was eventually revealed as a finger fracture, and persistent hand discomfort kept Alvarez out of action from early May to late August.  While he posted great numbers upon his returning, Alvarez was shut down again by a left ankle sprain in mid-September that left him unable to even resume basic running or hitting drills by the end of the season.

The good news is that Brown said Alvarez should have “a normal offseason,” and is back to running at around “65-70 percent” of his usual capability.  Speed is not exactly a huge aspect of Alvarez’s game and he should continue to be Houston’s primary DH in 2026, but keeping an elite bat healthy is naturally a huge factor in the Astros’ hopes of future success.

Arrighetti was limited to seven starts and 35 1/3 innings in 2025, as he missed four months of action after his right thumb was fractured by a batted ball during batting practice.  That fluky injury was followed up by a bout of elbow inflammation that shut Arrighetti down for good in early September.  There was some concern raised when Arrighetti was set to go for a second opinion on his elbow, but it would appear as though he has gotten a clean bill of health for regular offseason prep.

For now, Arrighetti is penciled into a spot in Houston’s Opening Day rotation, though Brown has been open about the Astros’ desire to add to their pitching staff.  With Framber Valdez potentially leaving in free agency and several other Astros pitchers besides Arrighetti also on the mend, acquiring another starter would help clear up some of the uncertainty surrounding the pitching staff.

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