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Discussion: The Nationals’ 2011 First Baseman

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Adam Dunn's defensive limitations are under scrutiny again today after a pair of plays he failed to make in last night's 1-0 loss to Philadelphia, writes Ben Goessling of MASN.com. It's "no secret," according to Goessling, that as the Nationals decide whether or not to extend Dunn past this season, his defense is one of their primary concerns.

Dunn's prowess at the plate is undisputed; with 31 home runs and a slash line of .266/.354/.557 this year, The 30-year-old is poised to match or top last year's .267/.398/.529, 38-homer campaign. And his defense at first base has actually improved, according to UZR. Playing the infield on a full-time basis for the first time this season, Dunn's UZR/150 is only slightly below average, at -1.3. Still, UZR is a statistic best evaluated over multiple seasons, and Dunn's career numbers aren't flattering.

It could cost Washington in excess of $40MM to lock up Dunn to a multi-year extension, and it's unclear whether they'd want to commit that money to a player some observers feel is more suited to DHing. Additionally, Dunn projects as a Type A free agent and could net the Nats compensation picks if he signs elsewhere. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted, the club figures to offer Dunn arbitration even if they think he may accept, since they could live with having him for one year at around $15MM.

Goessling indicates that the Nats would have some interest in Carlos Pena, who will also be a free agent this winter. Pena isn't as dangerous offensively as Dunn, but he has a similar power stroke and is more adept in the field. Other above-average defensive players available this offseason in an overcrowded first base market include Derrek Lee and Lyle Overbay. Both players have struggled offensively at times this year, but are still helping their teams defensively.

Will concerns about Dunn's defense mean the Nats let him walk this winter? How much money and how many years would you commit to the slugger if you were running the organization? Or would you elect to pursue another corner infielder instead?

Discussion: Ted Lilly

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The Dodgers picked up Cubs lefty Ted Lilly at the trade deadline with the hopes of making a run at the postseason.  As they host the Reds at home tonight, they sit 12 games back of the Padres for the NL West crown and seven games back in the wild card chase.  Their playoff hopes aren't quite dashed at this point but with Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal still sidelined with injuries, things do not look good for Los Angeles.

Earlier today, ESPN's Buster Olney wondered if the Dodgers might try to flip the two-time All-Star to a playoff contender.  He notes that Lilly would not clear waivers as he would have several teams interested and points to Philadelphia and St. Louis as possible candidates.  With a 1.29 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in four starts thus far for the Dodgers, it's no surprise to hear that he is highly sought after.

Lilly becomes a free agent at season's end and based on the Dodgers' actions last season, many observers believe that they will not offer him arbitration.  If you were in GM Ned Colletti's position, would you hang on to the hurler to keep your playoff hopes alive or would you ship him to his seventh career major league destination?

Discussion: Manny Ramirez

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After being unable to land Nationals slugger Adam Dunn, the White Sox turned their attention to another target in the hours leading up to the Trade Deadline: Dodgers outfielder Manny Ramirez.  The conversation reportedly didn't last long as Dodgers GM Ned Colletti essentially told White Sox GM Kenny Williams, "Thanks, but no thanks."  Reportedly, the Rays made an inquiry of their own as well.

As they sit a surmountable seven games back in the NL West, the Dodgers made moves at the deadline to improve themselves in the short-term.  Octavio Dotel and Ted Lilly were brought aboard and younger players with upside and team-friendly contracts like Blake DeWitt, James McDonald, and prospect Andrew Lambo were shipped out.  However, the club's goals can change very quickly if they are unable to make up ground or even tread water in the coming weeks.

The enigmatic superstar has spent a good deal of time on the disabled list this season but has still managed to put forward a .317/.409/.516 slash line and eight homers in 61 games.  For a team still in the playoff hunt, the 38-year-old could be very attractive, even for the roughly $7MM he is owed for the rest of the year.  If the Dodgers can't keep their playoff dreams alive, one has to imagine that Ramirez will be an August trade target.  The White Sox, Rays, and other contenders will certainly be keeping an eye on the club.

Discussion: The Orioles’ Next Move

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When the Orioles fired manager Dave Trembley on Thursday, it represented the club's first major shake-up, and Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun hopes it won't be the last. Schmuck writes that, no matter who is managing the O's, changes need to be made to the team's roster. He advocates trading away many of the team's veterans and focusing on player development for the rest of the season.

In his blog post this morning, ESPN.com's Buster Olney quoted a talent evaluator who thought the Orioles might be better off hanging on to older players such as Kevin Millwood, Ty Wigginton, and Luke Scott, to help stabilize the clubhouse. And, as Schmuck notes, Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail doesn't seem ready to give up on the current roster quite yet:

"I'm still hopeful we can end up with a better record than we had last year,'' said MacPhail. "I still want to move that needle…. Obviously we've handicapped ourselves greatly, but I think getting our players healthy will help us in that regard."

Still, with no chance of contending this season in a stacked AL East, and prospects like Josh Bell and Jake Arrieta close to being ready, revamping the roster seems like the logical next step for the Orioles. Schmuck suggests that the ideal approach would be dealing the aforementioned veterans (plus Miguel Tejada), giving a few young players a shot in the majors, and aggressively diving into the free agent market this coming offseason. If you were running the Orioles, would you do things differently?

Discussion: Lyle Overbay

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Much has been written over the last few years about Vernon Wells' immovable contract, but besides that significant commitment to their center fielder, the Blue Jays have a very manageable payroll situation. The only other player on their roster who will earn more than $4.75MM this season is Lyle Overbay ($7MM).

Unlike Wells, who has rediscovered the power stroke that earned him that monster contract in the first place, Overbay is struggling. Hitless in his last 14 at-bats, the 33-year-old has seen his 2010 slash line slip to .200/.281/.337 and has been the target of Rogers Centre boo-birds for most of the season. Manager Cito Gaston finally dropped Overbay in the batting order tonight, slotting him seventh rather than his usual fifth.

Although it's still unclear whether Toronto will be a buyer or a seller this summer, parting ways with Overbay could benefit both the present and future of the club. Top prospect Brett Wallace is hitting .289/.346/.537 with 11 homers in Triple A Las Vegas and not only represents a significant piece of the team's rebuilding plan, but could provide an instant offensive upgrade over Overbay. The Jays are likely postponing a roster decision at least until they can be sure Wallace will avoid becoming a super two player, but that time is fast approaching.

The last time we looked at Overbay's future, we still thought he may have some trade value. Now it seems unlikely that the first baseman, who has approximately $4.9MM remaining on his contract, would attract any interest. Is it best for Toronto to emulate what the Rays did with Pat Burrell and just cut their losses, or can Overbay turn things around? Is the 23-year-old Wallace ready to be an everyday player for a team technically still in contention? How should the Jays handle this situation?

Discussion: Bengie Molina

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Following Starlin Castro's 6-RBI debut with the Cubs last night, Giants fans have to be wondering when they'll see their own top prospect, Buster Posey, arrive in the bigs. Bengie Molina left this afternoon's game at Citi Field with a tight left hamstring, and whether or not the injury requires a roster move, the calls for Posey's promotion will only grow louder.

With Posey likely ticketed for San Francisco sometime in the coming days or weeks, the Giants will have to decide how they'll balance playing time between their young backstop and the incumbent, Molina. While Posey can also play some first base, his real value is as an offensive catcher. However, the Giants won't be inclined to keep Molina on the bench too often if the veteran continues to perform like he has so far (.325/.396/.450).

Although Molina has enjoyed some early-season success on the field, he seems unhappy with his situation. The 35-year-old has recently expressed regrets about not landing with the Mets and talked about retiring after the 2010 campaign. You'd have to think the prospect of losing playing time to Posey would only make things worse for Molina.

So if Posey is promoted and proves capable of handling the Giants' staff and hitting in the majors, would the Giants think about moving Molina? ESPN.com's MLB Rumors page suggests the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mariners could be among the clubs in the market for a catcher, and Molina's contract situation is more favorable than some. Chris Snyder, for instance, is guaranteed $11.25MM over the next two years, while Molina is earning $4.5MM on a one-year deal.

There have been no indications yet that Giants would consider shopping Molina, but if Posey thrives upon eventually arriving in San Francisco, Molina could be an interesting trade chip. Which teams do you think might inquire about Molina's availability? Will he still be a Giant in September?

Discussion: The Ideal Trade

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Every year we see countless trades involving every kind of player, from established big leaguers to promising prospects to minor league roster filler. Most of the time, one team ends up getting the better end of the deal, whether or not that's apparent at the time of the trade is a different story all together.  

Moshe Mandel at TYU posed an interesting question today: does a GM want to see the prospects he's traded away succeed? Are the Phillies rooted for Kyle Drabek or against him? What about the Yankees and Austin Jackson, or the Red Sox and Nick Hagadone? Furthermore, what about the big leaguers traded away? Does a GM want to see those players do well?

I believe that the best trades are those that benefit both teams, because they've not improved your ball club but also your reputation with other clubs as well, which can help with future deals. Some might not agree, and think that the best deals involve improving their team while hurting another. 

What about you? What does your ideal trade look like; is it a win-win, or something else? Is it wrong to want to see someone you've traded away fail? 

Discussion: Alex Gordon

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Earlier this week, the Royals optioned former first-round pick Alex Gordon to the minors. The second overall pick in 2005, Gordon was named Baseball America's #2 prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2007 season. However, since hitting .260/.351/.432 in 2008, the 26-year-old has struggled to stay healthy and has posted a slash line of just .226/.327/.369 in 227 plate appearances for the Royals, leading to his demotion.

For Joe Posnanski, the move is a signal that the club has given up on Gordon, writing that "when you send him to the minor leagues after only 12 games, it doesn’t matter what you say. You are giving up." ESPN.com's Rob Neyer agrees, pointing out that many people in Kansas City's front office weren't around when Gordon was drafted, reducing their investment in him. Neyer says that if he were running the Royals, he'd play Gordon at third base, barring injury, until season's end, but the organization has other plans — they intend to give Gordon playing time at left field and first base in Triple-A Omaha. As Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star notes, Gordon likely would've been displaced at third base eventually by prospect Mike Moustakas, who is hitting .417/.491/.917 in Double-A so far this season.

So where does this leave Gordon? Posnanski is pessimistic about the left-handed hitter's future in Kansas City, predicting that Gordon could end up blossoming with another team who appreciates his strengths. It's unclear if the Royals would consider moving him at this point though, or if there'd even be much of a market for him. Mellinger spoke to one rival scout who opines: "Nobody I know is excited about [Gordon] or thinks he’s above getting sent down."

Gordon is under team control until after the 2013 season, so for now the Royals figure to give him a chance to play every day and gain some confidence in the minors. Eventually, his performance or an injury on the 25-man roster will earn him another shot in the bigs. Posnanski, however, belives that "without expectation and without a position," it won't work.

If it were your decision, what would you do with Gordon, a player once drafted ahead of Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, and Troy Tulowitzki?

Discussion: Changes Coming In Boston?

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Following the Red Sox' three-game sweep at the hands of the last-place Baltimore Orioles, GM Theo Epstein insinuated that the team may need to make roster changes. In a piece by John Tomase of the Boston Herald, Epstein assesses the current state of his club:

"We’re still playing bad baseball. Unintelligent, undisciplined, uninspired baseball. It’s got to change…. It either changes itself or we have to do something to change it."

The Red Sox ranked first in baseball in offseason spending, investing in players like John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and Marco Scutaro. The on-field product has underperformed so far though, looking up in the standings at the Rays, Yankees, and even the Blue Jays.

As Tomase suggests, it's hard to single out one player or even one aspect of the team as the root of the problem. However, when considering the likelihood of a drastic roster move, it's worth noting that many of the struggling players are in the final year of their contracts. Victor Martinez has had trouble throwing out basestealers and is hitting just .233/.298/.314. Designated hitters David Ortiz (.159/.254/.381) and Mike Lowell (.222/.300/.333) are underachieving and overpaid. Even Beltre, despite a .330 average, has yet to homer and has played mediocre defense by his standards, committing his sixth error of the season tonight.

The Red Sox are, of course, unlikely to become sellers, but they'll need to turn things around soon or risk falling from contention in a competitive division. If the Sox fail to make up ground on the Rays and Yankees in the AL East, what moves could you see the club making in the coming weeks and months?

Discussion: Raul Ibanez

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Raul Ibanez is in the second season of a three-year, $31.5MM deal with the Phillies, and so far 2010 isn't treating him as well as the first half of 2009 did. Last season, Ibanez got off to a torrid start, hitting 340/.399/.716 with 19 homers in his first 50 games. This year, the 37-year-old has yet to find his stroke, posting a slash line of just .221/.341/.338.

Ibanez is a notoriously streaky hitter, and it's possible another hot stretch like last year's is right around the corner. It's only May 1st and there are plenty of reasons to believe he'll right the ship, such as his .341 OBP, which is right in line with his career rate (.346) and his 2009 rate (.347). If Ibanez's struggles continue, however, it's a cause of concern for the two-time defending National League champs. In addition to this year's slow start, the outfielder finished 2009 by hitting 228/.313/.446 after those aforementioned first 50 games. Ibanez will turn 38 this month, and one has to wonder if his age is starting to catch up to him.

As a piece on ESPN.com's MLB Rumors page notes, Ibanez's leash will be long. The Phillies owe him $11.5MM in each of the next two seasons, and won't want to pay him that money to sit on the bench. Plus, their alternatives aren't overly appealing — in limited playing time, Ben Francisco has also struggled this year, and prospect Domonic Brown is probably not quite major league ready.

So what are the Phillies' options if Ibanez's numbers don't improve? Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer suggested that the club's best bet of retaining Jayson Werth beyond this year involved moving Ibanez to help clear salary space, but in addition to the $23MM he's owed, Ibanez's no-trade protection is problematic. Can you see the Phillies attempting to make any roster moves, or will this end up being a non-issue for the team?

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