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Zack Wheeler

Poll: NL Cy Young Check-In

By Nick Deeds | June 27, 2025 at 3:19pm CDT

While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? Yesterday’s poll covered the AL, where 45.5% of voters expect southpaw Tarik Skubal to repeat as the Cy Young Award winner. Today, our focus is on the NL. A look at some of the top candidates:

Paul Skenes

After a dominant debut season where he won the NL Rookie of the Year award and finished third in Cy Young voting, it shouldn’t register as much of a surprise that Skenes is one of the favorites for the award in his sophomore season as a big leaguer. The right-hander has an NL-best 2.12 ERA in 106 innings of work through 17 starts with strong peripherals to match. He’s striking out 26.9% of his opponents, walking 7.1%, and is doing extremely well in terms of contact management with a 48.9% ground ball rate and a barrel rate of just 4.9%. It’s a strong collection of numbers for any player, much less a 23-year-old in just his second MLB season.

Even so, Skenes is hardly a slam dunk for the award. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate are all actually worse than they were in his rookie campaign. His 3.28 SIERA is just eighth in the NL, suggesting that there are other contenders for the award who are better set up to excel in the second half of the season than he is. Aside from that, some more traditional voters could look at Skenes’s 4-7 record on a Pirates team that could flirt with a 100-loss campaign this year and hold it against the young star relative to other hurlers in the race who pitch for contenders.

Logan Webb

When looking at the game’s aces, it can be argued that none is more underappreciated than right-hander Logan Webb. He’s doing what he can to change that perception of him with a phenomenal season in his age-28 campaign, however. Webb’s 2.52 ERA lags behind that of Skenes, but he makes up for it in virtually every other category. His 107 1/3 innings of work across 17 starts leads the NL, and his 2.24 FIP is also good for the best in the senior circuit. While his 53.3% ground ball rate would be the lowest he’s posted in a full season if maintained through the end of the year, it’s still a well above average figure.

He’s made up for that decline in grounders by striking out more batters than ever before with a 27.7% clip that surpasses even Skenes, and he’s done it while maintaining a tidy 5.3% walk rate. There are very few red flags in Webb’s profile this year, and perhaps the biggest question is if a player who entered the year with a career 22.0% strikeout rate who has made only token improvements to his low-90s fastball in terms of velocity this year can sustain such a large spike in strikeouts. After finishing as the runner-up for the Cy Young Award in 2023 and sixth last season, could 2025 be Webb’s year to shine?

Zack Wheeler

No list of potential Cy Young candidates in the NL has been complete without Wheeler since he arrived in Philadelphia, and this year is no exception. The 35-year-old may have recently indicated that he’ll retire following the expiration of his current contract in 2027, but he’s shown no signs whatsoever of slowing down on the mound. Across 99 innings of work and 16 starts this year, Wheeler’s numbers look like they have a chance to be better than they’ve ever been come the end of the year.

His 2.55 ERA would be the best of his career by a slim margin after he posted a 2.57 figure last season, and his eye-popping 32.9% strikeout rate is not only nearly eight points better than his career mark, but the highest in all of baseball among qualified starters this year. His 2.70 SIERA is also the best in the NL, edging out Webb by just eight points, and he has a strong chance to eclipse 200 innings pitched for the third time in his career. Wheeler has finished second for the Cy Young twice before, in both 2021 and 2024. This year could be his best opportunity to secure the award before his planned retirement two seasons from now.

MacKenzie Gore

Easily the most surprising entrant into the list of top candidates for the Cy Young, Gore was once the sport’s consensus top pitching prospect but entered the 2025 season with a fairly pedestrian 4.20 ERA across parts of three seasons in the majors. He’s broken out in a big way as the Nationals’ ace this year, however, with a 3.09 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 99 innings of work across 17 starts. His 31.8% strikeout rate is second only to Wheeler in the NL, and that overpowering stuff is enough to leave him with a strong 2.99 SIERA that largely supports his performance to this point in the season.

Impressive as he’s been, however, the 26-year-old also has much clearer flaws than the other contenders on this list. Like Skenes, Gore’s 3-8 record on a club with little hope of contending in 2025 could be a hard sell for the sport’s most traditional voters. There are also fair questions about how certain Gore is to keep up his performance in the second half. He’s mostly a fly ball pitcher, and that profile along with his 9.0% barrel rate allowed leave him susceptible to the long ball. His 7.4% walk rate is the highest among the top contenders for the Cy Young this year, as well. Perhaps most concerning of all is his performance down the stretch in 2024. After carrying a 3.47 ERA and 3.00 FIP through July 1 last year, Gore wore down in the second half and posted a 4.40 ERA with a 4.17 FIP across his final 15 starts. Will he be able to sustain his performance this year?

Other Options

While the four hurlers mentioned above are the top candidates, they certainly aren’t the only arms worthy of consideration. Chris Sale is the reigning Cy Young winner in the NL and would be firmly in contention for the award once again if not for a recent rib cage injury that figures to sideline him indefinitely. Jesus Luzardo has elite peripheral numbers but recently surrendered 20 runs in 5 2/3 innings across two appearances that could knock him out of contention for the award by themselves. Cristopher Sanchez and former Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray are both in the midst of excellent seasons, but are overshadowed within their own rotations by Wheeler and Webb respectively. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.61 ERA is very impressive, but his less-than-elite peripherals and lack of volume leave him a step behind the other contenders.

Sale’s injury sets this race apart from the AL Cy Young and both of the MVP races by significantly diminishing the chances of a repeat. With what appears to be a fairly wide-open field, who do MLBTR readers expect to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates San Francisco Giants Washington Nationals Logan Webb MacKenzie Gore Paul Skenes Zack Wheeler

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Zack Wheeler Plans To Retire After 2027 Season

By Mark Polishuk | June 15, 2025 at 10:23am CDT

Phillies ace Zack Wheeler signed a three-year, $126MM contract extension in March 2024 that covers the 2025-27 seasons.  It appears as though that will be the final deal of Wheeler’s career, as The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes that Wheeler is aiming to retire following the 2027 campaign, at age 37.

Plenty can change within the next two and a half years, of course, and even such teammates as J.T. Realmuto have some doubt that Wheeler would really hang up the cleats if he is still healthy and pitching well by the time the 2027 season wraps.  That said, Wheeler said “it’ll be easy to walk away” from baseball — not because of any burnout or lack of drive, but simply because Wheeler is looking forward to spending time with his family.

Should the right-hander continue on his current track through his planned retirement date, Wheeler will surely draw some attention from Cooperstown voters.  Since the start of the 2018 season, Wheeler leads all pitchers in fWAR (35.7), and only teammate Aaron Nola has thrown more innings than Wheeler’s 1289 frames.  He has a 3.14 ERA over those eight-plus years, and a 3.31 ERA for the entirety of his 11 big league seasons.

Selected sixth overall by the Giants in the 2009 draft, Wheeler has more than lived up to the high expectations that came with that high pedigree, though he famously never pitched a game in a San Francisco uniform.  The Giants dealt Wheeler to the Mets at the 2011 trade deadline for Carlos Beltran, as the Giants made the bold decision to acquire a star rental player in order to make a bid for the playoffs.  San Francisco’s three World Series titles from 2010-14 give the organization some leeway when looking back at “what if?” scenarios, yet it is intriguing to wonder if keeping Wheeler might have allowed the Giants to extend their contention window deeper into the decade.

That said, Wheeler’s time in New York was interrupted by injury, as he didn’t pitch at all in 2015-16 due to both a Tommy John surgery and a strained flexor tendon.  He naturally showed some rust in his return to the mound in 2017, but then pitched well enough over the next two seasons to make him one of the most prized members of the 2019-20 free agent class.  The Phillies inked Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract that now stands as one of the best free agent pitching deals in history, given how Wheeler has elevated his game since arriving in the City of Brotherly Love.

Wheeler has a 2.93 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, and a 5.7% walk rate over 911 1/3 regular-season innings in a Phillies uniform, as well as a 2.18 ERA over 70 1/3 playoff innings.  Wheeler has twice been an NL All-Star during his time with the Phils, and he was the runner-up in NL Cy Young Award voting in both 2021 and 2024.  The righty is only a couple of weeks removed from his 35th birthday, but he continues to be one of the league’s top arms this season, with a 2.85 ERA, 6% walk rate, and a 32% strikeout rate that is on pace for a new career high.

Extending Wheeler helped the Phillies keep their rotation cornerstone in place through now what looks to be the rest of his career, and the team has already made some preparations for the post-Wheeler era.  Cristopher Sanchez was inked to an extension that (if club options are exercised) could run through 2030.  Nola was re-signed to a new contract during the 2023-24 offseason, though Nola has been quite shaky this year.  Younger pitchers like Andrew Painter and Mick Abel are viewed as the future of the rotation, plus it seems likely that the Phils will keep spending big, so a future free agent splash to add pitching is certainly possible down the road.

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Chris Sale Wins National League Cy Young Award

By Darragh McDonald | November 20, 2024 at 5:45pm CDT

Braves left-hander Chris Sale has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2024, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Zack Wheeler of the Phillies finished in second place with Paul Skenes of the Pirates in third place.

The award is the final cherry on top of a remarkable comeback season for Sale. He had a run from 2010 to 2018 of being one of the best pitchers in the majors, but struggled in 2019 and then was in the injury wilderness for quite a while. Due to various ailments, including Tommy John surgery, he only pitched about 150 innings total from 2020 to 2023.

The Red Sox flipped him to Atlanta almost a year ago, in December of 2023. The move was seen as risky at the time, as Sale was going into his age-35 season and was several years removed from his prime.

On top of that, Atlanta sent Vaughn Grissom to Boston in the deal, a notable prospect who still had years and years of cheap control. In return, they were getting just one year of Sale, though they did sign him to an extension that covered 2024 and 2025 with a club option for 2026. That extended their window of control over him, but at a fairly hefty price point: $38MM for the two guaranteed years plus $18MM for the option.

But so far, the deal has been incredibly lopsided in favor of Atlanta. Grissom was injured for much of 2024 and didn’t perform well while healthy. For Atlanta, most of their key contributors got hurt this year while Sale ironically stayed healthy, in spite of his recent track record.

Sale finished the season having made 29 starts and thrown 177 2/3 innings, allowing 2.38 earned runs per nine. He struck out 32.1% of batters faced, only gave out walks 5.6% of the time and got grounders on 44.8% of balls in play. He won the pitching triple crown by leading the National League in ERA, wins and strikeouts. His tally of 6.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs was easily the most in the majors this year, with Tarik Skubal of the Tigers second at 5.9 fWAR.

Despite his previous dominance, this is actually Sale’s first time taking home the hardware. Per MLB’s Sarah Langs on X, Sale is the first pitcher to finish top five in Cy Young voting in five straight years, fall outside the top five for five straight years immediately after, followed by a return to the top five. He is also (X links from Langs) the first pitcher to have six previous top five finishes and later win the award, in addition to being one of the five oldest pitchers to win for the first time.

Sale got 26 of the first place votes (full vote tallies from the BBWAA), with the other four going to Wheeler, who logged exactly 200 innings over 32 starts with a 2.57 ERA. Skenes already won Rookie of the Year award earlier this week but this further cements what an amazing season he had. Other pitchers getting votes were Dylan Cease, Shota Imanaga, Logan Webb, Michael King, Hunter Greene, Ryan Helsley, Cristopher Sánchez, Reynaldo López, Sean Manaea and Aaron Nola.

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Latest On Phillies’ Rotation

By Anthony Franco | July 9, 2024 at 11:24pm CDT

The Phillies are making an adjustment to their rotation. Rookie right-hander Tyler Phillips will make his first big league start on Saturday against the A’s, tweets Matt Gelb of the Athletic. Fellow rookie Michael Mercado is set to work from the bullpen.

Mercado, 25, just stepped into the starting five in late June. He threw five innings of one-run ball against the Cubs in his first MLB start. The Braves teed off on Mercado on Saturday, though, tagging him for five runs on a trio of homers before he could escape the second inning. While one poor start won’t change the organization’s view on Mercado, most prospect evaluators suggest his fastball-curveball arsenal is better suited for relief work.

A former second-round pick of the Rays, Mercado joined the Phils in a minor trade at the beginning of last offseason. He has started 10 of 14 appearances with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Mercado has a stellar 1.71 earned run average at the top minor league level. However, he has walked more than 11% of batters faced while averaging fewer than four innings per appearance.

Phillips has had a more conventional starting role with Lehigh Valley. He has started all 15 Triple-A appearances and averaged slightly more than six innings per game. His 4.89 ERA is a lot more pedestrian than Mercado’s mark, although he has shown somewhat better control (9.4% walk rate). Mercado throws a bit harder than Phillips does and has demonstrated a lot more bat-missing ability in the minor leagues. Phillips, whom the team added to the 40-man roster last week, has a modest 19.8% strikeout rate for the IronPigs. To his credit, Phillips punched out seven hitters across four innings of relief behind Mercado against Atlanta in his big league debut.

The Phillies have built enough of a cushion that they shouldn’t be concerned about some short-term uncertainty in their starting five. They’re eight games clear of the Braves for the division lead and 4.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for the National League’s top seed. An excellent rotation has been a major reason. Philadelphia’s front four of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez is arguably the best in MLB.

The fifth spot is the only question mark. Taijuan Walker allowed a 5.60 ERA over 10 starts before inflammation in his index finger sent him to the injured list a few weeks ago. Spencer Turnbull managed great results as a sixth starter, but he sustained a lat strain that’ll knock him out into August.

Barring injury, the Phils look like the rare contender that doesn’t need to urgently pursue rotation help over the next three weeks. Wheeler’s status is worth monitoring after the Phils lifted him at 76 pitches during tonight’s start. The team announced that the star righty was battling lower back tightness. After the game, skipper Rob Thomson called it a precautionary measure with the Phillies already holding an eight-run lead (X link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Thomson suggested the team would evaluate Wheeler tomorrow but indicated the club expects he’ll be fine to make his next start.

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Phillies Considering Multiple Ways To Keep Spencer Turnbull In Rotation Mix

By Steve Adams | May 3, 2024 at 2:35pm CDT

Right-hander Spencer Turnbull has been a revelation in the Phillies’ rotation after filling in for the injured Taijuan Walker to begin the season. While Walker’s return from the injured list might have seemed like an obvious means of pushing Turnbull back into a long relief role earlier in the season, Turnbull has pitched so well that the Phils likely feel they can’t take him out of his current spot.

Indeed, manager Rob Thomson told the Phillies beat yesterday that the club will consider creative means of keeping Turnbull in the mix — be it piggybacking him with another starter or alternating between Sanchez and Turnbull in the fifth spot of the rotation depending on the opponent they’re facing (links via Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com).

The Phillies’ rotation, as a whole, has been remarkable this season. Philadelphia starters rank first in the majors with 190 2/3 innings pitched, second with a 2.50 ERA, second with a 26% strikeout rate, tenth with a 7% walk rate and third with a 52% ground-ball rate. Their collective 3.28 FIP is also second-best in MLB, and Phillies starters lead the league with a 3.22 SIERA. By virtually any measure, they’ve been outstanding.

Righties Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are both out to excellent starts. Wheeler, in particular, is sitting on a sub-2.00 ERA with his typical blend of plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Nola is sporting a 3.20 mark with a roughly average strikeout rate and a strong 7% walk rate. He’s been a bit homer-prone for what’s now a second straight season, but he’s generally pitched well in the first season of his new seven-year contract.

Left-hander Ranger Suarez has arguably been the team’s most effective starter. He touts a team-best 1.32 ERA through his first six turns on the mound. He’s logged 41 innings with a plus 27.8% strikeout rate and elite walk and ground-ball rates (3.5% and 60.8%, respectively). He won’t sustain a .189 BABIP and 92.9% strand rate, but the skill components of his performance have been terrific.

Fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez has been solid, recording a 3.68 ERA in 29 1/3 frames. His 22% strikeout rate is barely south of average, and while his 9.8% walk rate is on the high side, he’s helped mitigate some of those free passes with a massive 62.2% grounder rate. Righty Taijuan Walker just returned from the injured list and was hit hard in his first start, but he was a quality innings eater for the Phils last year (4.32 ERA in 31 starts) and is being paid $18MM this season to fill that role again.

Turnbull’s run-prevention thus far is right up there with Wheeler and Suarez. Through six starts, he’s pitched 32 1/3 innings of 1.67 ERA ball with an excellent 28.7% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate that’s about a percentage point better than average. He’s not sitting at Suarez/Sanchez levels with his ground-ball rate, but his mark of 49.4% is still comfortably north of the 43% league average.

A piggyback situation with Sanchez or some kind of alternating fifth starter role could make particular sense for Turnbull, who missed  the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and pitched only 57 innings between the big leagues and minors last year. At some point, his workload could become a factor, as his body simply hasn’t endured a full season of innings since the 2019 campaign, when he started 30 games for the Tigers and pitched 148 1/3 innings.

The more straightforward solution would be to go to a six-man rotation, but Thomson has suggested in the past that the team doesn’t consider that a likely arrangement. However they proceed, it seems Turnbull — who has already wildly outperformed his modest one-year, $2MM deal — will continue to factor prominently into the team’s pitching staff as he gears up for what seems likely to be a much more lucrative trip through free agency again next winter.

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Philadelphia Phillies Aaron Nola Cristopher Sanchez Ranger Suarez Spencer Turnbull Taijuan Walker Zack Wheeler

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MLBTR Podcast: The Giants Sign Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Snell And Montgomery Remain

By Darragh McDonald | March 6, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Giants sign Matt Chapman (2:50)
  • Why do the Giants and other clubs keep giving players these opt-out deals? (6:45)
  • What is the logic with Chapman and Cody Bellinger settling for these short-term deals? (10:20)
  • What’s next for the Giants? Will they trade J.D. Davis? Go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery? (13:50)
  • Why didn’t the Yankees or Mariners go after Chapman? (17:00)
  • Phillies sign Zack Wheeler to extension (18:30)
  • Should players focus more on guarantees or average annual values? (20:15)
  • Did Shohei Ohtani not push things forward enough for players? (22:15)
  • Was Wheeler not concerned about maximizing his guarantee? (25:10)
  • What does the future look like for the Phillies? (26:35)
  • What’s up with Snell and Montgomery now? Could the Orioles swoop in? (29:35)
  • Does the Lucas Giolito news spur the Red Sox to jump on Snell or Montgomery? (31:20)
  • What about other dark horses for Snell or Montgomery? (34:15)
  • The case for the Brewers being a dark horse (35:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Is the late signing by the Boras clients a result of just how the market played out or the strategy of holding out? How does Boras spin this? (39:15)
  • Are we seeing the end of the Scott Boras era? Especially with players more to their mid-30s. I’m not sure how you could objectively look at how the offseason has gone for his clients and think it was a win for them. (44:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
  • Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
  • Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler To Extension

By Steve Adams | March 4, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been open with his desire to extend ace Zack Wheeler before he reaches free agency at the end of the 2024 season, and he got it done Monday, announcing that Wheeler has signed a three-year extension covering the 2025-27 seasons. The Wasserman client will reportedly be guaranteed $126MM on the contract, which does not include any options or opt-out opportunities.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that $42MM annual rate is the largest on any contract extension in the sport’s history and the fourth-largest AAV on any contract ever, placing Wheeler only behind Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Wheeler has now been added to MLBTR’s list of the game’s largest AAVs ever, as well.

That the contract begins in 2025 rather than overriding the final season of the right-hander’s current five-year, $118MM contract is notable for luxury tax purposes. Because the deal goes into place in 2025, Wheeler’s CBT hit will remain $23.6MM for the upcoming season before vaulting substantially in 2025. The Phillies were already into the second tier of luxury penalization, and a significant boost for Wheeler would’ve pushed them into the third tier, dropping their top pick in the draft by 10 spots.

Wheeler already has more than ten years of major league service time, and he’ll hit five years with the Phillies at the end of the 2024 season. That’ll give him 10-and-5 rights, granting Wheeler the power to veto any potential trade over the life of his new contract with the Phils.

It’s rare for any nine-figure deal in free agency to wind up being considered a bargain, but Wheeler has been worth every penny of his original $118MM contract — and then some. Currently 33 years old, Wheeler ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with 629 1/3 innings pitched dating back to 2020, the first season of the contract. His 3.06 ERA, 2.90 FIP and 3.42 SIERA rank 11th, fourth and 15th among 121 qualified big league pitchers in that time.

Since signing with the Phils, Wheeler has punched out 26.7% of his opponents against a sparkling 5.3% walk rate. Despite the homer-friendly nature of Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, Wheeler has yielded an average of just 0.74 homers per nine frames — closely in line with his career mark of 0.83.

Wheeler’s 96 mph average fastball velocity in 2023 was down from its 97.3 mph peak (set in 2021), but he actually posted excellent swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, sitting at 13.% and 36.6%, respectively. Those two marks were not only his best as a Phillie but the best single-season marks he’s posted in either category in his entire career to date. When opponents did manage to make contact against Wheeler, it was typically of the feeble variety. Hitters averaged a dismal 86.9 mph exit velocity against Wheeler this past season, placing the right-hander in the 88th percentile of big league pitchers.

Detractors can point to Wheeler’s 3.61 ERA in 2023 as a sign of decline, but as already laid out, Wheeler missed bats at career-best levels in 2023, maintained plus velocity and kept his walk rate among the league’s best. The primary skill change in Wheeler’s approach was a decline in grounders (41.2% — down from 49.6% in his first three years with Philly). That led to a few more home runs but correlated with the uptick in missed bats. Given that the Phillies annually trot out a poor defensive alignment behind their pitchers, the increase in missed bats is a better portent of long-term success than a reliance on keeping balls on the ground anyhow. Wheeler’s 71.3% strand rate — an outlier mark when looking at his year-to-year levels — figures to regress closer to the 74.3% mark he carried into the 2023 season. Assuming that indeed plays out, so long as Wheeler maintains something close to his current K-BB%, there’s a good chance his ERA will improve accordingly.

The dominance for Wheeler stretches far beyond his regular season work, however. He’s been an integral part of the Phillies’ deep playoff over the past two seasons — his first two tastes of postseason action to this point in his career. Wheeler has made 11 appearances (10 starts, one relief) and piled up 63 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 4.2% walk rate while pitching in the postseason.

With Wheeler now entrenched in Philadelphia through the 2027 season and Aaron Nola also re-signed for another seven seasons, the Philadelphia rotation is set for the foreseeable future. That pair will continue to lead the way, with Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez and Taijuan Walker all controlled/signed for multiple additional seasons. Suarez is arbitration-eligible through the 2026 season, while Walker is signed through 2027 and Sanchez is controllable all the way through 2028. Strong as that group may be, the Phillies continue to be linked to a possible short-term deal with reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell — though signing Snell would catapult the team into the top tier of luxury penalization, which would push the team’s top draft choice back ten spots and likely mean more than $35MM in taxes on top of any salary.

Barring a one final, surprising splash on the free agent or trade market, the Phillies have other depth options in house. Former Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull and former Braves/Rangers southpaw Kolby Allard both signed big league deals over the winter. The Phils also have a stable of touted pitching prospects including Andrew Painter (currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery), Mick Abel and Griff McGarry all working their way toward MLB debuts, giving them some quality young options. Painter isn’t likely to pitch at all in 2024 while recovering from last summer’s surgery, but he was in the mix to be the team’s fifth starter last year in spring training despite being just 19 years old during camp. He’ll be firmly in the 2025 rotation mix, though the team will presumably have him on some form of innings limit.

The Wheeler extension will take the Phillies north of $200MM in payroll commitments for the 2025 season before the first pitch of the 2024 campaign is even thrown, and with him now signed through the 2027 season, the Phils have a quartet of nine-figure deals they’ll be paying out at least four years down the road (Wheeler, Nola, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper). From a CBT standpoint, the Wheeler deal all but ensures that the Phillies will again be luxury tax payors next season at the very least. RosterResource projects Philadelphia for a hefty $229MM of luxury obligations next season, and that doesn’t even include next offseason’s dealings or any of the team’s arbitration-eligible players.

Wheeler would have been one of the top arms available in a deep class of free agent pitchers next winter. The 2024-25 offseason will still feature Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Scherzer and Verlander — pending further extensions among the group. Gerrit Cole also has an opt-out in his contract next winter, though the Yankees can (and very likely will, barring any sort of major injury) override that opt-out by picking up a club option for a tenth season at $36MM.

Wheeler would’ve landed behind younger aces like Burnes and Fried in terms of overall earning power, but as this extension shows, his earning power on a strict AAV basis very well could have been the highest of the bunch. Instead, he’ll anchor a deep Phillies rotation that’ll take aim at a third consecutive NLCS appearance in 2024 and look to secure the World Series title they fell just short of back in 2022.

ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that the two parties had agreed to a multi-year extension. Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the terms of the contract.

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NL East Notes: Garrett, Wheeler, Robles, Matzek

By Nick Deeds | February 18, 2024 at 11:17am CDT

The Marlins kicked off Spring Training with a potential injury scare in the rotation, as Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relays that, per manager Skip Schumaker, southpaw Braxton Garrett is dealing with “general soreness” in his left shoulder. While shoulder injuries are among the more concerning ailments for pitchers, Schumaker made clear that Garrett hasn’t been shut down at this point with the club instead planning to “push back” the start to Garrett’s spring “until he feels better.” McPherson adds that Garrett continued to play catch late last week.

Garrett, 26, has quietly broken out as a quality mid-rotation arm for the Marlins over the past two seasons. In 48 appearances (47 starts) since the start of the 2022 season, Garrett has posted an impressive 3.63 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.64 FIP across 247 2/3 innings of work. During that time, the lefty has struck out a respectable 23.8% of batters faced while walking just 5.1%. The youngster’s strong peripheral numbers are rounded out by his ability to generate grounders, which he has done at an above-average 48.7% clip over the past two years. With Sandy Alcantara set to miss the entire 2024 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Garrett figures to slot in toward the front of the Miami rotation this season alongside the likes of Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez.

With Garrett’s health uncertain entering camp, it’s fair to wonder what impact his status may have on the club’s trade talks regarding members of their rotation. The Marlins have long been known to be listening on their controllable starting pitching in hopes of addressing other areas of their roster, with Luzardo receiving attention from the likes of the Orioles and Dodgers while the Pirates have also reportedly shown interesting in the club’s available rotation arms. While it’s unclear what impact, if any, Garrett’s current shoulder issue would have on his availability in trade, it’s possible the Marlins may be more hesitant to shop any of their starting options until they have more certainty on Garrett’s status. After all, a hypothetical trade of Luzardo would leave the Marlins with only Perez, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers as surefire starting options entering the 2024 season if Garrett were to require time on the injured list.

More from the NL East…

  • The Phillies have long been hoping to extend veteran ace Zack Wheeler, and comments from Wheeler himself last week indicated that the sides have opened extension talks with Spring Training now underway. While Wheeler indicated that he’s open to negotiating even once the season begins, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) that while extending Wheeler is a “priority” for the club, his preference is for the sides to come together on a deal before the regular season begins. Wheeler has established himself as one of the league’s premiere starters since first suiting up for the Phillies during the shortened 2020 campaign. During his time in Philadelphia, the right-hander has pitched to an excellent 3.06 ERA with a 2.90 FIP in 101 starts during the regular season and has augmented that resume with an incredible 2.42 ERA in 63 1/3 postseason innings.
  • Victor Robles has patrolled center field for the Nationals on a regular basis ever since his rookie season back in 2019, though it’s possible that could change entering the 2024 season. As relayed by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, manager Dave Martinez told reporters recently that there will be a “battle” between Robles and 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young for the starting center field job, though Martinez added that Robles has “a little bit of an upper hand” coming into camp. Robles has largely been a plus-glove center fielder with below average offense throughout his career, though in 2023 he appeared to flash more offensive upside as he slashed a solid .299/.385/.364. Unfortunately, that slash line came across just 126 trips to the plate as Robles spent most of the year on the injured list due to back injuries. Young, meanwhile, held his own in a 33-game cup of coffee in the majors last year with a decent .252/.322/.336 slash line in 122 trips to the plate.
  • Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery, but he told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that he’s feeling good entering Spring Training and hopes to be ready for Opening Day, though he didn’t rule out a possible IL stint to open the season if he needs time to finish preparing to retake the mound. The 33-year-old’s return to the mound figures to provide a significant boost to Atlanta’s relief corps, as Matzek pitched to strong results over three seasons with the Braves prior to the injury. In 132 combined appearances, the southpaw posted a 2.92 ERA with a 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work as he struck out 27.4% of batters faced.
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Phillies, Zack Wheeler Have Opened Extension Talks

By Anthony Franco | February 14, 2024 at 9:48pm CDT

The Phillies have begun extension discussions with Zack Wheeler’s camp at Wasserman, the star righty told reporters (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic). Talks are in the early stages and there’s no indication a deal is imminent.

Philadelphia has made no secret of its desire to retain Wheeler beyond the 2024 season. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki wrote in December the Phils considered an extension a priority. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went on record to confirm that last week.

Wheeler, who turns 34 in May, is entering the final season of a five-year free agent contract. The club’s $118MM investment over the 2019-20 offseason has been one of the best free agent acquisitions of the past few years. Wheeler has turned in a 3.06 ERA over his first four seasons in Philadelphia. He has appeared on Cy Young ballots in three of them, including a runner-up finish in 2021. Only Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcántara and teammate Aaron Nola have thrown more innings since the start of 2020.

The former #6 overall pick didn’t show many signs of slowing down a year ago. Wheeler took a full slate of 32 starts and worked 192 innings. While his 3.61 ERA was his highest as a Phillie, that partially reflects a spike in offense around the league. Wheeler’s 26.9% strikeout rate matches his prior season’s output. He walked only 5% of opponents and finished 13th in MLB in innings. Wheeler induced swinging strikes on a career-best 13.3% of his offerings and averaged a robust 95.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball.

Wheeler is under contract for $23.5MM for the upcoming season. An extension would surely come with larger annual salaries for 2025 and beyond. Long-term extensions for pitchers covering their mid-30s are rare, as one might imagine. Over the past five seasons, the only starter to sign an extension covering at least three years at age 33 or older is Yu Darvish. Last February, the Padres inked Darvish to a surprising five-year, $90MM pact covering his age 37-41 seasons.

That’s not a great comparison point for Wheeler, who is three years younger than the San Diego righty was at the time. An extension would take effect in his age-35 campaign. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, two pitchers — Max Scherzer and former teammate Jacob deGrom — have secured nine-figure free agent deals at that age. deGrom landed a five-year, $185MM guarantee from the Rangers at 35 last winter. Scherzer secured a three-year, $130MM pact from the Mets covering his age 37-39 campaigns in November ’21. The $43.333MM average annual value was a record at the time; it’s now tied for second after being matched by Justin Verlander and topped by Shohei Ohtani.

Wheeler hasn’t matched the levels of dominance turned in by deGrom and Scherzer at their best. He has a far better durability track record than deGrom, though, and he’s a couple years younger than Scherzer was when he signed with New York. Those pitchers had the benefit of open market bidding. Wheeler won’t have that in extension talks with Philadelphia, but it’d very likely take something approaching free agent prices for him to sign early.

“I just want to be paid [based on] how I’ve done, what they expect out of me,” he told reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). “It’s not all about the money to me, either. I took less to come here and be in a good spot and be happy and for my family to be happy. I do want — what’s the right word? — I want what I feel like I’ve earned. … Market value. There you go.”

Wheeler has a solid case for a four-year deal that pushes well into nine figures. He has a better track record than the likes of Sonny Gray and Chris Bassitt, each of whom secured three-year deals covering their age 34-36 campaigns. Gray landed $75MM from the Cardinals this winter, while Bassitt inked a $63MM pact with the Blue Jays a year ago.

The Phillies haven’t been shy about making long-term commitments, although they don’t have anyone making more than $28MM annually. Each of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Taijuan Walker are on the books for at least $18MM per season beyond next year. The deals for Turner, Harper, Nola, Castellanos and Walker stretch at least into 2026.

Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2025 payroll around $171MM; they’re at approximately $187MM in luxury tax obligations. The base tax threshold for the ’25 season will be $241MM. A Wheeler extension would likely push their tax number past $215MM, potentially north of $220MM. They’re set to exceed the threshold for a third straight season in 2024, so they’d be subject to the maximum penalties for repeat payors in ’25 and beyond. That hasn’t been a stumbling block for owner John Middleton in recent years. A Wheeler extension would all but ensure they’d pay the CBT for at least a fourth consecutive season in 2025.

There doesn’t seem to be a firm deadline for a deal to get done. Wheeler suggested he’d be amenable to continuing talks beyond Opening Day but noted he’s taking a “hands-off” approach to negotiations between the team and his agents.

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Dombrowski On Phillies’ Offseason, Wheeler, Rojas, Painter

By Steve Adams | February 7, 2024 at 8:48pm CDT

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski joined the 94 WIP Morning show with Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie on Wednesday, touching on a broad-reaching number of Phillies topics (Audacy link to the entire 20-minute interview). It’s a good listen for fans of any club — Phils fans in particular, of course — wherein Philadelphia’s top decision-maker discusses his team’s relatively quiet offseason, the state of the rotation and the outfield, Zack Wheeler’s future with the club, top prospect Andrew Painter’s health and quite a bit more.

Among the more notable takeaways was Dombrowski’s reply when asked a potential late move for one of the remaining big-name starters on the board. Dombrowski didn’t comment on either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery by name but expressed that he’s content with the club’s rotation. As far back as early November, Dombrowski touted fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez as someone the team believes can be a big regular in the rotation, and his comments today mesh with that line of thinking. Dombrowski didn’t expressly rule out the addition of another starter but implied that the team wasn’t about to pay market rate for one of the remaining names out there.

“I can’t tell you that somebody doesn’t fall into your lap at some point where you say, ’Gee, that’s an opportunity we can’t turn down,'” Dombrowski said. That suggests a willingness to remain open-minded to some late, unexpected drops in price but doesn’t sound like a portent for an aggressive pursuit of a top-tier free agent.

That said, there was at least one name the Phillies considered worthy of an exception: Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s already been reported that the Phillies were a legitimate suitor for the 25-year-old NPB ace before he signed a record deal with the Dodgers, and Dombrowski now confirms that his team was “very involved” in Yamamoto’s market. The veteran baseball ops leader went so far as to say that others might be “shocked” to learn how much money the Phillies ultimately offered — naturally, he declined to specify — before indicating that Yamamoto simply had a preference to be a Dodger. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber reported last week that the Phils also made a 12-year offer, although it’s unclear if they were willing to match the $325MM guarantee which Yamamoto received from Los Angeles.

Obviously, any multi-year addition to the rotation could provide the Phillies with some insurance in the event that Wheeler departs as a free agent at season’s end. But Dombrowski called Wheeler “one of the best pitchers in baseball” and stressed that it’s “important” and a “priority” for the Phillies find a way to re-sign the right-hander.

Wheeler, 34 in May, has outperformed the five-year, $118MM contract he signed with the Phillies in the 2019-20 offseason. He’s garnered Cy Young consideration in three of his four Phillies seasons, highlighted by a second-place finish in 2021 and a sixth-place finish in 2023.

Over the past four seasons, he’s tied with Corbin Burnes for the fourth-most innings in Major League Baseball and leads MLB in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. He’s notched a tidy 3.06 ERA despite typically playing in front of one of the game’s weakest defenses, thanks in large part to a sharp 26.7% strikeout rate and excellent 5.3% walk rate. A new contract for Wheeler would begin with his age-35 season, which caps his earning potential to an extent, but recent history has shown teams are willing to pay elite arms even at the late stages of their careers.

A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker highlights some recent examples of age-35 (or older) pitchers cashing in. Jacob deGrom signed a five-year deal with a $37MM annual value, while Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander both inked multi-year deals at a $43.333MM AAV. The AAV on Yu Darvish’s extension, beginning in his age-37 season, is just $18MM — but that was a function of the Padres drawing out the term in order to drive down the annual salary for luxury-tax purposes. Darvish still secured a $90MM guarantee on that frontloaded deal and was two years older than Wheeler will be in year one of a theoretical free agent pact or extension. Suffice it to say, Wheeler will be the relatively rare big leaguer who has a chance at multiple nine-figure contracts in his career.

On the point of the team’s defense, Dombrowski cited that as a primary reason the team has not pursued additional outfield help with much aggression this spring. Young Johan Rojas dazzled with his defensive ratings (+15 Defensive Runs Saved, +6 Outs Above Average) in just 392 innings of center field work. Asked if Rojas will be the team’s primary center fielder this season, Dombrowski all but anointed the 23-year-old.

“Likely? Yes,” Dombrowski replied. “Definitively? No. We saw enough the last couple months in August and September that we liked what we saw. I’ve talked to our hitting people at length about his progress over the winter time. He’s worked extremely hard. He’s made adjustments that he needs to make. I’m not saying he’s going to come up and hit .300 with 20 home runs off the bat, but I think he can do enough offensively and contribute from an offensive perspective. And when you add his speed and his defense, all of a sudden he becomes a real plus for us. So yes, I do think he’ll be up, but he has to earn that, too. We’re not just going to give it to him.”

Even as he made those caveats, Dombrowski also spoke of the team’s desire to get Kyle Schwarber more time at designated hitter and to keep Bryce Harper at first base as a means of improving the defense (as opposed to the alternative scenario where Schwarber plays left field and Rhys Hoskins were re-signed to split time between DH and first base). Rojas’ bat looked impressive during his brief regular-season look, as he hit .302/.342/.430 in 164 plate appearances, but that was buoyed by an unsustainable .410 average on balls in play. His bat went ice cold in the playoffs, too, as Rojas fell into a woeful 4-for-43 swoon and struck out in a third of his plate appearances.

Despite the postseason struggles, it appears Rojas will have first crack at the regular center field job. The Phillies are generally thin in terms of outfield depth, and this afternoon’s DFA of Simon Muzziotti could add to that if he’s traded or claimed by another club. There’s perhaps the chance that the Phils could add a bench bat to the mix, and outfield would be a natural spot, given the lackluster offensive contributions of Jake Cave and limited track record of Cristian Pache.

Dombrowski acknowledged the possibility of adding a bench bat, simply noting “that might end up happening,” but he didn’t characterize it as a major item that’s yet to be checked off the to-do list. Speaking in general terms, the Phillies’ president again implied that between wanting to give Rojas a real chance and the veteran nature of much of his roster, free agents have seen greater opportunity for playing time with other clubs thus far. There’s still quite a few names yet unsigned, so it stands to reason that the Phils could eventually find a bargain addition to deepen the mix. Pache, Cave and utility infielder Edmundo Sosa are all out of options, however, so adding a player to the bench mix would likely mean jettisoning someone like Cave, who’s already agreed to a $1MM salary for the 2024 season. That isn’t likely to be a major roadblock to any further additions, but it’ll factor into the calculus all the same.

The Phillies will effectively return the same bullpen in 2024, though again, Dombrowski indicated it’s not necessarily for lack of trying. He noted that the team has been in on at least “a couple” of notable names but that one, in particular, took an opportunity to be a starting pitcher elsewhere. Another simply preferred to be closer to his home on the west coast. Again, Dombrowski didn’t mention names, though Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez stand out as two bullpen arms who surprisingly landed rotation opportunities in free agency (Hicks in San Francisco, Lopez in Atlanta). Hicks, in particular, was rumored to be on the Phillies’ radar as a free agent.

Starting pitching depth, too, has been a recent area the Phillies have been searching. They signed former Braves first-rounder Kolby Allard to a split big league deal last month due in no small part to the fact that he has a minor league option remaining. That same line of thinking surely influenced today’s claim of righty Max Castillo from the Red Sox.

The Phillies have top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry working through the minor league system, and while both could make their debuts in 2024, neither has yet pitched even five innings above the Double-A level. Painter was a rotation candidate early last season but wound up going down with an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Dombrowski said in this morning’s interview that Painter has begun “tossing” a ball recently and is on schedule but that the organization is “looking toward 2025” with regard to the prized righty and isn’t planning on him pitching in games this season. There’s always the possibility his recovery progresses more quickly than expected, but the 20-year-old right-hander doesn’t appear to be someone the Phillies are banking on for even a late-season cameo.

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