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When Padres Gave Up An Eventual 2-Time Cy Young Winner

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Although right-hander Corey Kluber has been one of the most successful starters in recent memory, it’s not as if his he was a can’t-miss prospect who was expected to turn into the two-time American League Cy Young winner he became. Kluber entered the pros as a fourth-round pick of the Padres in 2007, but he wasn’t lights-out at preventing runs at the lower levels of the minors with them during his time with the franchise. The Padres eventually deemed Kluber expendable when they sent him to the Indians in a July 2010 three-team trade that also involved the Cardinals. The headliners then were outfielder Ryan Ludwick (he went from the Cardinals to the Padres) and righty Jake Westbrook (the Indians shipped him to the Redbirds). Little did anyone know Kluber would turn into the most valuable player in the deal.

Corey Kluber | Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY Sports

If we go back a decade, Ludwick was amid a rather impressive run with the Cardinals, largely because of a 5.3-fWAR campaign in 2008 in which he posted a jaw-dropping 151 wRC+. While he fell back to earth from there, the Padres – who were playoff contenders in 2010 – expected him to at least serve as a solid regular in their uniform. But the Padres, despite winning 90 games that year, didn’t end up making the playoffs, and they never got much value from Ludwick. He slashed a weak .228/.301/.358 (86 wRC+) over 664 plate appearances in a Padres uniform in 160 games before they sold him to the Pirates in July 2011.

Ludwick’s subpar production in San Diego makes it all the more unfortunate that the team said goodbye to Kluber, who later evolved into one of the top starters of the past several years. Kluber came into his own in 2013, his first full season in the majors, and proceeded to post a sterling 2.96 ERA/2.89 FIP with 9.91 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9 across 1,238 2/3 innings through 2018.

As mentioned, Kluber took home a pair of Cy Youngs during his halcyon stretch. He also earned three All-Star nods, ranked 10th among all qualified starters in ERA, and helped the Indians to four playoff berths and three AL Central championships. Not bad for someone who was unheralded when the Indians got him. Westbrook, whom the Indians gave up, was quite good in their uniform at times, and he did enjoy success in St. Louis, but that’s nonetheless a trade that Cleveland would make again in light of how much Kluber blossomed as a member of the club.

However, now 34 years old, Kluber is no longer part of the team with which he broke out. After a disappointing, injury-ruined 2019, the Indians sent Kluber and his waning team control (he has a guaranteed one year, $18.5MM left on the five-year, $38.5MM pact the Indians gave him in 2015) to the Rangers for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. It has never come off as an overwhelming return for Cleveland, especially in light of Clase’s recent 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Then again, Kluber didn’t look like a special pickup when he joined the Indians, and look how he panned out. Regardless of what happens with Clase and DeShields, you can’t argue with what the Indians got from Kluber when he was in their rotation. For the Padres, though, he’s a star who got away.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Three Years Ago, The Padres Got An Elite Reliever For Nothing

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We just passed the three-year anniversary of a transaction that looked inconsequential at the time but has since turned into one of the finest moves of Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s career.

On April 26, 2017, the Padres took a low-risk flier on reliever Kirby Yates via waivers. Yates had been with the Angels, but they and GM Billy Eppler designated him for assignment just a few days earlier. It was actually the second time that month that the Angels designated Yates, though no one took the bait the first time. That was understandable considering he never did much to stand out in the majors to that point, so you can’t really fault the Angels for cutting ties with him in light of that fact

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote when the Padres claimed the right-hander: “Yates, 30, only made it into one contest for the Halos this year. Over his 98 2/3 total MLB frames since the start of the 2014 season, he owns only a 5.38 ERA.” However, Jeff went on to add, “[Yates] has also generated 10.4 K/9 to go with 3.7 BB/9 in that span and showed career-best fastball velocity (94 mph) in his sole MLB appearance this year.”

And Yates, a 26th-round pick of the Red Sox in 2005, did put up excellent production at the minors’ highest level. Also a former member of the Yankees and Rays in MLB, he caught on with the Padres as the owner of a 2.26 ERA with 12.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 135 2/3 innings in Triple-A. Little did the Padres or anyone else know Yates would soon go on to post even better numbers in San Diego.

While Yates did not manage dominant run prevention figures during his first year as a Padre, he was quite serviceable, giving them 55 2/3 frames of 3.72 ERA/3.50 FIP pitching and fanning a jaw-dropping 14.07 batters per nine (compared to 3.07 BB/9). San Diego clearly had a useful hurler on its hands, and he took it up several notches from there.

Last year was especially incredible for Yates, who fired 60 2/3 innings of 1.19 ERA ball en route to his first All-Star nod and totaled 41 saves in 44 attempts. Yates did not win NL Reliever of the Year honors (that award went to the Brewers’ Josh Hader), but maybe he should have. After all, along with amassing the most saves in the game, he paced all relievers in ERA and FIP, and finished second in fWAR (3.4; only Athletics steal Liam Hendriks was better), third in K/BB ratio (7.77), and fifth in strikeouts per nine (14.98).

So how did Yates, now 33, become such a force? As he explained to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com in 2018, the introduction of a splitter to his repertoire was the turning point.

“The Angels didn’t want me to get away from the slider,” Yates told Cassavell. “I wasn’t necessarily going to get away from the slider, but I was trying to add a third pitch. When I got here, it was, ’We like your split, we want you to throw it more.'”

Yates leaned on the pitch better than 36 percent of the time in ’18 and upward of 41 percent last year. Hitters could only muster a pitiful .182 weighted on-base average/.203 expected wOBA against it in 2019, per Statcast. According to FanGraphs, it has been the most effective pitch of its kind among all relievers since Yates began throwing it. It goes to show that any player, even a scrapheap pickup in his early 30s, might just be one adjustment from stardom.

For Preller, Yates was his second relief addition via waivers to evolve into an all-world bullpen piece. One April earlier, he grabbed Brad Hand from the Marlins (more on that here), and the Padres sold high on him when they sent him to the Indians in 2018. Perhaps Yates will meet a similar fate, or maybe he has already thrown his last pitch as a Padre. He’s scheduled to become a free agent next winter, though the two sides have discussed an extension. No matter where Yates pitches going forward, there’s no doubt he has provided worlds of value to the Padres and put himself in line to cash in on a multiyear contract. Who could have expected that to happen when they scooped him up three years ago?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

How Did The White Sox Trade Fernando Tatis Jr.?!

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You have to give the White Sox credit for signing Fernando Tatis Jr. in the first place.  They snagged the 16-year-old as an international signing out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015 for a bonus of $700K, years after Marco Paddy had restored credibility to the team’s efforts in Latin America following the David Wilder scandal.

At the time, MLB.com ranked Tatis Jr. 30th in his class, which also included Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, and Cristian Pache.  The biggest available international player was Cuban star Yoan Moncada, at a time when a team could elect to exceed its bonus pool and pay a 100% tax, as the Red Sox did.

Tatis’ father had played 11 years in the Majors, cracking 113 home runs, so the bloodlines were strong.  In their scouting report, MLB.com said, “Scouts like Tatis Jr.’s swing, his strong arm and his fluid actions on defense. He’s shown decent arm strength and raw power to his pull side. Tatis Jr.’s knack for barreling up balls and his repeatable swing have also impressed evaluators.”  Jeff Buchanan of FutureSox wrote, “Tatis clearly doesn’t have the same upside as [White Sox top 2015 international signing] Franklin Reyes, but his well-rounded skillset, high baseball IQ and professional mentality mean he likely comes with less risk than Reyes and is a better bet to maximize his potential as a possible everyday player.” 

Tatis Jr. was certainly an interesting July 2 international signing, but according to Dennis Lin’s excellent oral history in The Athletic, the Blue Jays, Indians, and Rays were the only other teams to attempt to sign him, which is why he didn’t land the multi-million bonuses others in his class did.  If teams had an inkling of what Tatis Jr. would become, he would have signed for ten times as much money.  Most of these players were six years away from the Majors, and projecting that far out is very difficult.  Many of these guys could have been traded for a veteran starting pitcher the year after signing and we would have never spoken of it again.

11 months passed between the date of Tatis Jr. signing and the date of his fateful trade to the Padres.  How much height the infielder gained in the interim could develop into a tall tale one day, but in Lin’s article, the player himself said he added two inches.  Padres GM A.J. Preller, then a member of the Rangers’ front office, had seen Tatis Jr. multiple times before the player signed with Chicago.  Members of the Padres’ front office observed him at least twice after he joined the White Sox organization: during the Arizona Instructional League in the fall of 2015, and again during extended spring training in 2016.  So Tatis Jr. was on the Padres’ radar as the 2016 season progressed.

Padres executive chairman Ron Fowler told Lin that the team’s efforts to trade veteran starter James Shields “became accelerated” after the pitcher endured a May 31st, 2016 drubbing in Seattle in which he allowed ten earned runs while recording eight outs.  In the outing, Shields’ ERA jumped from 3.06 to 4.28.  The day after that start from Shields, Fowler went on the radio to term it an “an embarrassment to the team, an embarrassment to him.”  After trading both Shields and outfielder Matt Kemp, Fowler would throw shade in saying, “We made a conscious decision to ship them out because we want people that are prepared to improve.”

So if the James Shields trade talks picked up around June 1st, 2016, where did the White Sox stand at that point?  The club’s record stood at 29-25, two games behind the Royals in the AL Central and firmly in the Wild Card race as well.  According to FanGraphs, the White Sox had a 33.8% chance of making the playoffs, which was actually better than teams that sat ahead of them like the Royals and Orioles.  The White Sox hadn’t reached the playoffs since 2008, and GM Rick Hahn was justified in seeking reinforcements.

At the time, the White Sox starting rotation was fronted by Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon.  Free agent signing Mat Latos held down the fourth spot, but had a 6.54 ERA over his previous six starts.  The club had recently released longtime rotation fixture John Danks, eating significant money in the process.  Miguel Gonzalez was able to step on and temporarily hold the fifth starter job, with Hahn looking to make an acquisition.

As Hahn put it to Jon Greenberg of The Athletic, “That was a move, in going out to get James, that was due to the lack of depth in the organization. We did not have internal answers when (John) Danks wasn’t getting back to a form that was serviceable and (Mat) Latos was taking on water and regressing back to his more likely form for the rest of the season. So we had to do something stem the flow here. And that’s very fair to say that transaction is sort of emblematic of that past way of doing things and trying to fix it on the fly.”  The team’s lack of rotation depth didn’t come out of nowhere, though, as depth seemed thin even prior to the season.

In just about every write-up of the Shields trade at the time, Tatis Jr. was listed after Erik Johnson, the other prospect the Padres acquired.  Johnson, a 26-year-old righty, had been drafted by the White Sox in the second round out of UC Berkeley back in 2011.  Coming through Chicago’s farm system, Johnson was seen as a potential No. 3 starter.  His value peaked prior to the 2014 season, when Keith Law (then of ESPN) ranked him as the 59th-best prospect in baseball. But Johnson failed to stick in the White Sox rotation from 2014 up until the trade.

Could the White Sox have acquired Shields for different prospects?  According to Preller in Lin’s article, “We talked about two of their top prospects. They weren’t going to move those guys. And we talked about Tatis as well. You got the sense that he might be the guy they would talk about in the initial conversations, just because he was further away and hadn’t played a game yet.”  The top White Sox prospects prior to the 2016 were Tim Anderson and Carson Fulmer, as they had shipped off Frankie Montas in the offseason in the Todd Frazier deal.  At the time of the Shields trade, Anderson was less than a week away from supplanting Jimmy Rollins to become the team’s starting shortstop.  Fulmer had been drafted eighth overall by the White Sox the previous year, and it would be ridiculous revisionist history to suggest they should have had the foresight to trade him instead of Tatis Jr.

Was it reasonable for the White Sox to expect a midseason boost from Shields?  MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth and Connor Byrne wrote at the time:

Shields, 34, isn’t the pitcher he was during his best years with the Rays and Royals, but he remains a competent innings eater who’s on pace to exceed the 200-inning plateau and surpass the 30-start barrier for the 11th straight season. That aside, Shields does come with red flags. After a dreadful final start with the Padres, Shields’ ERA (4.28) is at its highest since 2010. Further, his strikeout rate – which spiked to a personal-best 9.61 per nine innings last year – has regressed to 7.62 (closer to his 7.84 career average) and the control that he displayed in his earlier days has declined. Shields’ walk rate is at 3.61 per nine innings, which is in line with last year’s 3.6, and his velocity has dipped. To Shields’ credit, he has long been a capable ground-ball generator – at 48 percent this year, there’s no sign he’s slowing down in that area. That should help his cause as he shifts to the hitter-friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field, but he does have the third-highest home run rate among qualified starters since last season (16.9 percent).

While Shields may have been an innings eater at that point in his career, no one expected him to post a 6.77 ERA for the remainder of the season.  It wasn’t crazy to view him as a useful veteran addition.  Plus, the Padres kicked in over $30MM, more than half of the money remaining on his contract.  To the White Sox, Shields looked to be an affordable rotation piece for the remainder of 2016 as well as the ’17 and ’18 seasons.

The White Sox pounced on Shields early, basically kicking off the 2016 trading season.  Later that summer, the Padres would also go on to trade their best starter, Drew Pomeranz, as well as Andrew Cashner.  The Orioles picked up Wade Miley, the Dodgers acquired Rich Hill, the Pirates snagged Ivan Nova, the Angels and Twins swapped Ricky Nolasco and Hector Santiago, and the Blue Jays got Scott Feldman.  There are many alternate universes where the White Sox acquire someone other than Shields, and who knows whether Tatis Jr. would have been involved.  They also could have plugged in Miguel Gonzalez in June, held off on trades for a month like most teams, and realized they should be sellers rather than buyers.

Hahn has owned the Tatis Jr. trade, calling himself a “jackass” in front of fans and telling MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, “That was probably the last deal we made with having a short-term mindset in mind.  Ultimately when this thing gets right, we are going to once again have a shorter time arising goal with our trades. It doesn’t mean you want to make a deal that haunts you for the long term, obviously.”  Every GM has a trade he’d like to take back.  Around that same time, the Marlins traded Luis Castillo, got him back due to a medical dispute, and then traded him again in the offseason.  It was also the summer where the Dodgers traded Yordan Alvarez, as outlined here.

Though Hahn admitted to Greenberg in 2017, “I probably physically cringe whenever I see a Tatis highlight,” the club embarked on what seems to have been a successful rebuilding effort after the ’16 season.  The White Sox brought in Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech in subsequent trades and pounced on Luis Robert in the international market.  Tatis Jr. may always be the one that got away, but an extended playoff run should take the sting off for the White Sox.

For more on the topic of the Tatis Jr. trade, be sure to check out Jeff Todd’s video on our YouTube channel.

When The Padres Fleeced The Marlins

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s tenure atop the club’s baseball department certainly hasn’t been a smash success. The Padres hired him late in the 2014 season and haven’t even posted a .500 season since then. To Preller’s credit, though, the Padres have put together an enticing group of young talent with his help. And in one of Preller’s greatest moves to date, the Padres acquired a right-hander who has evolved into a potential ace in exchange for a fading reliever.

If we go back to June 30, 2016, shortly before the trade deadline, the Padres were well under .500 and on their way to a 68-win season. Meanwhile, the Marlins were 41-38. The long-suffering Fish were under the impression they were playoff contenders at that point. As a result, they traded young right-hander Chris Paddack to the Padres for grizzled reliever Fernando Rodney. Big mistake.

After signing for a guaranteed $2MM in the prior offseason, Fernando enjoyed an unbelievable few months in San Diego, where he recorded an almost perfect 0.31 ERA in 28 2/3 innings and converted 17 saves in as many chances. Unsurprisingly, those numbers proved to be impossible to sustain in Miami. As a member of the Marlins, Rodney logged a ghastly 5.89 ERA (thanks in part to 25 walks in just 36 2/3 innings) and blew three of 11 save opportunities. For their part, the Marlins floundered after the trade en route to a 79-82 finish and yet another non-playoff showing. They lost Rodney to the Diamondbacks via free agency in the ensuing offseason.

In hindsight, the Rodney gamble clearly wasn’t worth it for Miami. On the other side, selling high on him has already paid dividends for San Diego and looks as if it will go down as one of the franchise’s top trades in recent memory. In return for Rodney, the Padres received Paddack, then a low minors prospect who Keith Law of The Athletic (then with ESPN) noted when the swap occurred “hasn’t given up a hit in forever.” MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed that “it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.”

Paddack’s production was indeed ridiculous that year, during which he managed a 0.85 ERA with 15.1 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings between the Marlins’ and Padres’ Single-A teams. However, despite those numbers and the aforementioned praise, he wasn’t necessarily viewed as a can’t-miss prospect at the time of the trade. When the deal went down, MLB.com ranked Paddack 17th in a Marlins farm that was not particularly respected.

In August of the year that the trade occurred, Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery. The procedure wound up costing him all of 2017, but he returned the next season to dominate at the High-A and Double-A levels. That was enough to convince the Padres that Paddack was ready for major league action in 2019, and indeed he was. As a 23-year-old pitching in the bigs for the first time, the fiery Paddack tossed 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA/3.96 FIP ball with 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 to emerge as one of the brightest up-and-comers in baseball.

For Preller, another 2016 trade – one in which he gave up James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr. – looks like his most successful move so far. But Paddack for Rodney comes off as a masterstroke in its own right. With Paddack atop their current rotation, and with excellent prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino closing in on the majors, the Padres’ long-term rotation picture appears to be in enviable shape.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL West Notes: Giants, Espinoza, Rockies

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Much of the focus on the trade that sent right-hander Mark Melancon from the Giants to the Braves last July has centered on the surprising fact that the Braves were willing to take on all of the $14MM owed to Melancon in 2020. So much so, it seems, that the return the Giants received is often entirely overlooked. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes, however, that the Giants are excited by the potential of righty Tristan Beck — a 23-year-old fourth rounder from the 2018 draft who saw his velocity trend upward during his run in the Arizona Fall League this year. Beck posted an ugly ERA (5.65) but encouraging FIP/xFIP numbers (3.04, 2.89) in eight starts with Atlanta’s Class-A Advanced affiliate. In the same number of innings with the Giants’ High-A club, Beck’s ERA dropped to 2.27 as he maintained sharp K/9 and BB/9 marks that carried into the fall league. Baseball America ranked Beck 14th among Giants prospects and called him a potential fourth starter, noting that his new organization’s decision to shift his four-seam focus to the top of the zone has improved his overall effectiveness.

A bit more from the division…

  • Padres prospect Anderson Espinoza had been eyeing a summer return from last April’s Tommy John surgery, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic in his latest reader mailbag. His timeline is now TBD, and the leaguewide stoppage has created the risk that he’ll miss an incredible fourth straight season of games. Still just 22 years of age, Espinoza was considered to be one of baseball’s premier minor league arms when the Red Sox shipped him to San Diego in return for a year and a half of Drew Pomeranz. But he’s twice undergone Tommy John surgery — most recently late last April — and now represents something of a wild card in a deep Padres farm system. His last appearance in a minor league game came back on Aug. 31, 2016.
  • Although no one quite knows what the draft will look like, Rockies scouting director Bill Schmidt is confident that his club is prepared and ready whenever the date does roll around, per Kyle Newman of the Denver Post. Rox scout Jay Matthews expressed to Newman that the ability to connect with players will be all the more crucial this year, as nondrafted players will be capped at just $20K signing bonuses. “Since we’re all going to be under the same money figure for free agents, it’s going to come down to relationships that the area scouts have established with the prospects,” said Matthews, likening this year’s atypical signing process for undrafted players to the college recruiting process. Newman points out that the Rockies have trended toward college players in recent drafts, with a particular emphasis on pitching. Colorado will have three of the first 46 picks in the draft — whatever form it takes.

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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The Padres keep trying to find the perfect roster mix to supplement their rising young talent.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

As usual, the Padres engaged in quite a lot of eyebrow-raising chatter this winter. There was talk at various points that the club was chasing trades involving Mookie Betts (see here), Kris Bryant (see here), Francisco Lindor (see here), Nick Senzel (same link), and Starling Marte (see here). In free agency, the Friars looked at veteran southpaws Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel … and also considered another in David Price as part of various trade scenarios.

There’s no new star in San Diego, but that probably wasn’t necessary for an organization that last year welcomed Manny Machado and oversaw the emergence of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack. It might have been nice to announce a new, long-term pact with Tatis. The San Diego organization built up some good will by promoting him to start the 2019 season — that’ll also ensure a full season of 2020 service even if the campaign isn’t played — but couldn’t make apparent headway in talks this winter.

While committing distant future money to a franchise star would’ve been possible, the Friars didn’t have much near-term payroll space to work with. The Padres tried but failed to deal Wil Myers to achieve greater flexibility, so for now they’re left saddled with the remaining three years and $61MM on his heavily back-loaded contract. After a bunch of non-tender decisions and some mostly modest salary additions, the team is sitting at about $144MM in cash payroll for 2020.

So, what did Padres GM A.J. Preller accomplish in his sixth offseason at the helm of baseball operations? Much of the work was in a set of four interesting swaps with three value-focused trade partners.

Most of all, Preller swung an outfield overhaul. Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham each came over as part of multi-player trades that defy characterization as “buy” or “sell”-side transactions for either the Padres or their respective trade partners in Tampa Bay and Milwaukee.

Pham is only controlled for two more seasons, but he could contribute a ton of excess value if he keeps hitting. He’ll replace Hunter Renfroe, one of the players for whom he was traded. Grisham brings a lot more long-term control and some real promise but isn’t nearly as established. He’ll slot into the mix at all three outfield spots, perhaps pairing with minor-league signee Juan Lagares to handle much of the work in center. Otherwise, the Friars will shrug and hope for the best from Myers and oft-injured youngster Francy Cordero. Another young left-handed slugger, Josh Naylor, could also factor into the mix. With a strong showing in the upper minors (if a season is played there), well-regarded prospect Taylor Trammell could force his way into the picture at some point.

As is the case for much of the rest of the San Diego roster, it’s possible to imagine the outfield unit playing at quite a high level … or being rather a marginal outfit. There’s decidedly more star power in the infield, though perhaps the outlook comes with the same sort of qualifications.

Barring injury, the left side of the infield will be occupied almost exclusively by aforementioned wunderkind Tatis and top-dollar star Machado. Greg Garcia is the primary reserve/fill-in option, with Ty France and newcomer Jake Cronenworth also on the 40-man. Francisco Mejia and Austin Hedges remain entrenched behind the dish, with hopes one or both will make strides in 2020. At first base, the Pads may ultimately have to decide whether to reduce the time of the disappointing Eric Hosmer. It’s arguable that the best alignment would involve a time share between Hosmer and Myers, however hard that would be to swallow given each former Royal’s weighty contract.

Ian Kinsler’s decision to elect retirement after a tough 2019 showing unexpectedly cleared some salary and seemed to pave a path to regular at-bats for top prospect Luis Urias — but the club obviously didn’t fully believe in him as a replacement. He ended up departing in the Grisham swap. The Padres gave up a bit of young talent to take over the final season of arbitration eligibility of Jurickson Profar, a formerly elite prospect (from back when he and Preller were with the Rangers organization) who was a mostly uninspiring performer in 2019. He’ll battle at second base with minor-league signee Brian Dozier. It wouldn’t be surprising to see that situation ultimately end up in a timeshare (with Garcia, France, and/or Cronenworth potentially involved).

Those aforementioned outfield moves spelled the end of the line for Manuel Margot in San Diego. He ended up being shipped out along with 2019 second-rounder Logan Driscoll in order to acquire reliever Emilio Pagan. The late-blooming Pagan brings highly appealing K/BB numbers and a big swinging-strike rate out west, but it seems rather curious that he will now be on his fourth MLB team in four seasons. Pagan carried an unsustainable strand rate (94.8%) to reach a 2.31 ERA last year and has been rather prone to the long ball (1.58 per nine for his career).

The Padres have visions of Pagan joining closer Kirby Yates to form a powerful combination of late-inning righties. Completing the high-leverage mix is southpaw Drew Pomeranz, who rode his second-half surge to a much bigger-than-expected contract and a surprising return to San Diego. The 31-year-old was flat-out dominant down the stretch, but it was still stunning to see the Friars go to a four-year guarantee to lure him. Further bullpen-building came in the form of more modest two-year pacts to bring back Craig Stammen and add interesting NPB returnee Pierce Johnson, who whiffed 91 hitters through 58 2/3 innings en route to a 1.38 ERA with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan last season.

The depth seems like it’ll be necessary. Young hurlers Andres Munoz and Reggie Lawson were each lost to Tommy John surgery in camp. The Padres can still turn to a host of other young arms, but most come with questions. Southpaw Matt Strahm (who has much better career numbers as a reliever) and converted infielder Javy Guerra seem likely to join the ’pen once the season begins. Luis Perdomo, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, Ronald Bolanos, David Bednar, Jose Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Gerardo Reyes and sixth starter Cal Quantrill are all 40-man options as well — some with real upside — but you’d have a hard time arguing any as sure things.

That leaves a rotation mix that mostly went untouched over the winter. The Friars did bring in Zach Davies while parting with Eric Lauer as the other half of the Grisham/Urias swap. It’s too much to expect a repeat of his 2019 showing (31 starts of 3.55 ERA ball), but Davies should be a solid part of the staff. The same holds true of Joey Lucchesi, who returns along with the upside-laden trio of Paddack, Garrett Richards, and Dinelson Lamet to form quite an interesting rotation mix. It would be even more exciting to see this group in a full season, when it could be supplemented by top prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino, but that’s all coming soon enough.

2020 Season Outlook

It’s awfully tough to look at this roster and see a threat to the powerhouse Dodgers. But all bets are off in a short-season format, which is likely all we’ll get if the 2020 season is played at all. And there’s reason for the Padres to hope they’ve done enough at least to compete for a Wild Card spot, though it’s a crowded NL field and it’ll be tough to make mid-season improvements given the (seeming) lack of payroll breathing room.

How would MLBTR fans grade the Padres’ offseason dealings? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Grade the Padres' offseason:
B 53.39% (1,338 votes)
C 28.09% (704 votes)
A 10.42% (261 votes)
D 5.27% (132 votes)
F 2.83% (71 votes)
Total Votes: 2,506

Anderson Espinoza Hires Beverly Hills Sports Council

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Padres right-hander Anderson Espinoza has changed agencies and is now a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Agent Cesar Suarez will represent Espinoza.

Once among the finest prospects in baseball, Espinoza has fallen on hard times in recent years because of serious injury troubles. He’s a two-time Tommy John surgery patient who more recently underwent the procedure last April. The 22-year-old’s health woes have prevented him from pitching competitively since 2016, the same season the Red Sox traded him to the Padres for lefty Drew Pomeranz. Espinoza hasn’t even advanced beyond the Single-A level, where he owns a 4.59 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 111 2/3 innings.

Despite the adversity Espinoza has faced over the past few years, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked him as the Padres’ 17th-best prospect just last week, writing that he still has “front-end stuff.” However, in light of Espinoza’s “below-average control” and the time he has missed, there’s a chance that he’ll only turn into a reliever or a back-end starter (if anything) in the majors.

Espinoza’s change in representation has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database.  If you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via e-mail: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Padres’ Offseason Acquisition Could Be Poised For Breakout

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The Padres have been on the hunt for long-term outfield pieces for a while. Over the past five years, the Friars have trotted out ten different Opening Day starters on the grass. Only Manuel Margot (three times), Wil Myers and Matt Kemp (two apiece) had garnered multiple Opening Day opportunities in that time. Evidently, they weren’t sold on their 2019 group, either. Of the four outfielders with the most playing time for the Friars last season, three are gone. Hunter Renfroe and Margot were sent to the Rays in separate deals, while Franmil Reyes was traded to the Indians in last summer’s three-team blockbuster. Only Myers is still around, and that’s seemingly because the club found his contract ($67.5MM remaining over three years) too difficult to move.

Yet the club acted decisively to solidify the outfield this offseason. Tommy Pham came over from Tampa Bay in the Renfroe deal. He’s a known commodity who should shore up left field for the next two years, his final seasons of arbitration control. More interesting from a long-term perspective is Trent Grisham. The 23-year-old was acquired from the Brewers in November in a four-player deal that cost the Pads prized young infielder Luis Urías and starter Eric Lauer.

A first-round pick (15th overall) out of a Texas high school in 2015, Grisham’s pro career got off to a bit of a rocky start. Baseball America’s #49 overall prospect after his draft year, his stock fell in the eyes of evaluators with each passing season. High strikeout rates in the low minors combined with relatively little power production to tamp down his offensive output. He always drew an elite number of walks, but it was fair to question whether that would continue against higher-level pitchers.

In 2017, Grisham seemingly turned a corner. He increased his fly ball rate by ten percentage points from the year prior. Not only did he maintain that ability the following year, he upped it another six points in his first crack at Double-A. Things fully clicked last season, when Grisham maintained his fly ball oriented batted ball profile while cutting his strikeouts four points. All the while, he managed to maintain his elite walk rates. In 283 plate appearances in the pitcher-friendly Southern League, Grisham hit .254/.371/.504 with a career-high 13 home runs. He matched those 13 homers in a month-plus in the PCL before earning an August call to the majors.

With only 183 MLB plate appearances under his belt, Grisham certainly doesn’t have a long track record at the highest level. Early indications, though, are he’ll carry over much of that minor-league approach. He remains exceptionally patient. That willingness to run deep counts will probably always lead to a fair amount of strikeouts, but Grisham made contact at a league average rate in the big leagues when he did swing. He also showed surprising speed, ranking in the 93rd percentile leaguewide, per Statcast.

To some, Grisham’s probably only known for his costly error in right field in last season’s NL Wild Card game. That unfortunately proved to be the final image of his Milwaukee career, but Brewers GM David Stearns shot down any notion (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) that one play had anything to do with the trade. No doubt, the left-handed hitter’s performance track record and physical gifts weigh heavier on decision-makers’ minds than a single misplay, no matter how high-profile.

MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reported last month Grisham had the inside track at the Padres’ center field job. If/when the 2020 season resumes, that presumably would still be the plan. San Diego no doubt hopes his impressive high-minors performance will translate into an MLB-ready, long-term outfield fixture.

This Date In Transactions History: Give The Padres A Hand

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In terms of on-field results, it hasn’t been a fruitful tenure in San Diego for general manager A.J. Preller, who hasn’t even overseen a .500 team since his hiring in 2014. But it was on this day four years ago that Preller made one of his best moves as the head of the club’s baseball department. On April 8, 2016, Preller’s Padres claimed left-handed reliever Brad Hand from the Marlins via waivers. It’s now fair to say the decision counts as one of the biggest steals of the past several years.

When the Padres put in their claim, Hand – a 2008 second-round pick and a then-26-year-old – had failed to distinguish himself as either a quality starter or a solid reliever. As a member of the Marlins, he totaled 90 appearances (43 starts) and 288 2/3 innings of 4.71 ERA/4.54 FIP ball with just 5.9 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. The Marlins designated him for assignment as a result, but the light bulb immediately went on in San Diego in 2016, when he switched to a full-time relief role.

Owing in part to an increased reliance on his slider, Hand notched a 2.92 ERA/3.07 FIP with 11.18 K/9 and 3.63 BB/9 in 89 1/3 innings during his initial Padres season. The good times have kept rolling since then for Hand, who has earned three straight All-Star nods. Since the Marlins cut ties with him, Hand has logged a 2.75 ERA/3.04 FIP and 12.23 K/9 against 3.08 BB/9 across 298 frames. And he has cashed in along the way, having inked a three-year, $19.75MM guarantee in advance of the 2018 season. Odds are that Hand will collect another $10MM in 2021, as it’s difficult to see his employer turning down that reasonably priced option in favor of a $1MM buyout.

While the Padres were the ones who made that financial commitment to Hand, he’s no longer on their roster. After Hand generated significant trade interest from around the game, the Padres sold high on him in in July 2018. They sent him and fellow reliever Adam Cimber to Cleveland for catcher/outfielder Francisco Mejia, then one of the highest-ranked prospects in baseball.

Hand has been an effective closer for the Indians (Cimber struggled somewhat last year), whereas Mejia hasn’t quite lived up to the hype he drew in his younger days. However, that’s not to say Mejia is a lost cause by any means. The switch-hitting 24-year-old is coming off his first extensive action in the majors, where he batted a decent .265/.316/.438 (96 wRC+) with eight home runs in 244 plate appearances last season. Mejia did have difficulty behind the plate, throwing out only 17 percent of would-be base stealers and earning a below-average pitch-framing grade, though the Padres are no doubt still hopeful that he’ll emerge as their long-term solution at catcher. Even if he doesn’t, it’s hard to argue with the value they received in the Hand trade, and it never would have happened had they not made the wise decision to grab him off the waiver wire four years back.

The Padres’ Interesting Rotation

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We’ve heard an awful lot of chatter over the years about the Padres trying to acquire premium MLB rotation pieces — Noah Syndergaard, etc. They’ve yet to swing such a deal, but nevertheless have managed to compile rather an interesting slate of starters.

While much of the excitement has remained focused on the future — MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, and more — that tends to obscure the present. There’s an intriguing blend of reasonable expectations and soaring upside in the unit on hand.

Let’s start with a few projections …

The composite expectations of ZiPS & Steamer present rather a favorable view of the Friars’ starting unit, predicting ~3 WAR performances from Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, and Dinelson Lamet. That system likes Paddack a bit more than the other two, due mostly to an expectation that he’ll make three more starts. ZiPS sees Joey Lucchesi as a sturdy 2.5 WAR hurler and likes Zach Davies to deliver in the range of 1.5 WAR. It’s less than enthused about Cal Quantrill as the top depth piece.

PECOTA tells a broadly similar tale of possibilities, but bakes in added padding for the long-term health questions facing Richards and Lamet. The Baseball Prospectus computers are also significantly less optimistic when it comes to the quality of Lucchesi and Davies.

This is a good time to pause and consider the context. Getting ~13 WAR out of a rotation would mean having one of the ten or so best staffs in baseball. In terms of projections, the Fangraphs numbers put the San Diego starting group behind the Dodgers but slightly ahead of the Diamondbacks on paper. 13 is a pretty strong number as mean expectations go. Even with superstar Jacob deGrom, but sans Noah Syndergaard, the Mets sit at a ~15 WAR projection.

Of course, that PECOTA projection hints at the real downside concern here. Both Richards and Lamet returned last year from Tommy John surgery. We’ve seen plenty of hurlers put that procedure in the rearview mirror, but some can run into difficulties — sometimes as other, potentially connected health problems arise — after showing initial promise. (Matt Harvey, anyone?) The hope is to unleash Paddack fully after keeping him on a leash last year, but he’s also a fairly recent TJ recipient.

And what of the other members of the staff? Davies has mostly produced very solid numbers, but he struggled quite a lot in 2018 and his peripherals didn’t excite in 2019. Davies logged a 3.55 ERA last year but FIP (4.56), xFIP (5.20) and SIERA (5.43) were decidedly unimpressed. Lucchesi was steadier in 2019 but doesn’t have as long of a track record. These are solid and useful pitchers, but they’re unlikely to lead the way if the top trio falters.

Depth isn’t necessarily a strong suit, either. Quantrill hasn’t really shown a spark to this stage of his career. Luis Perdomo and Matt Strahm seem likelier to work out in the bullpen. Other 40-man members — Adrian Morejon, Michael Baez, Ronald Bolanos — are quite speculative as immediate-term MLB starters. There are some non-roster players with experience in Jerad Eickhoff (looking to bounce back after washing out with the Phillies), Seth Frankoff (back from a successful KBO stint), Jacob Nix and Brett Kennedy (outrighted after struggling in 2018 debuts with the Pads). But it’s tough to rely much upon that slate of players.

Frankly, though, the reasonably anticipated scenario and the downside scenario aren’t the interesting ones. This is a season in which the Friars face long odds — if indeed it gets underway at all. Upside is where it’s at.

When it comes to ceiling, there’s a lot to like about this staff. Let’s start with Paddack, who faded as he got deep into a personal-high workload of 140 2/3 innings. He has now handled a full season in the majors and can build off of that without restraint. Last year, as a 23-year-old rookie, he pitched to a 3.33 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over 26 starts. With further growth, he could blossom into a legitimate #1 starter.

And hang on … are we underestimating Richards and Lamet? The former didn’t exactly return to top form in the results department late in 2019, but the fact he was able to get back to competitive action was quite promising. If he can work anywhere near his career norm (3.60 ERA) he’d be a huge piece for the Pads. The flamethrowing former Angels ace arguably has ceiling beyond that.

Lamet is perhaps even more interesting. He not only was able to make it through 14 starts in 2019, working to a solid 4.07 ERA, but generated an eye-popping 12.9 K/9. Lamet showed bigger velocity (96+ mph average fastball) and swinging-strike ability (14.0% SwStr) than he did in his rookie season.

It isn’t altogether impossible to imagine a three-headed monster forming at the top of this Padres staff … if everything breaks right. Combined with the two other quality starters — not to mention a similarly intriguing relief mix fronted by Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, and Drew Pomeranz — you can begin to see the possibilities for a pitching-led Padres breakout. This is all the more interesting since we’re looking at a short-season format where depth may not matter to quite the same extent (or, at least, not in quite the same way) as usual.

Is that likely to happen? Not so much. And any hopes of Gore and/or Patino streaking to the majors in 2020 likely went out the window when the coronavirus arrived, eliminating the potential for a typical minor-league season. That robs another upside scenario. Still, the Padres’ rotation is a particularly interesting one to watch … or, it will be if and when we finally get ballgames rolling.

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