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Julio Rodriguez Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez has won the Rookie of the Year award in the American League for 2022, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman finished second in the voting, while Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan checked in third.

This year’s rookie class in the Junior Circuit was remarkable, headlined by Rodríguez and Rutschman. The pair of top prospects both hit the ground running against MLB pitching. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster as their Opening Day center fielder, looking to build off their surprising 90-win campaign in 2021. The young outfielder got off to a tough start, thanks in part to a number of questionable strike calls in the early going, but he eventually emerged as the best position player on a good Seattle club.

Over 560 plate appearances, Rodríguez posted a .284/.345/.509 line. He connected on 28 home runs and swiped 25 bases in 32 attempts, one of just four players (Kyle Tucker, Adolis García and Marcus Semien being the others) to reach 25 longballs and steals apiece. Rodríguez was particularly electric in the second half, putting up a .303/.361/.576 line coming out of the All-Star Break to help Seattle cruise to its first postseason appearance in more than two decades.

Rodríguez also impressed on the other side of the ball, starting 130 games and playing 1126 2/3 innings in center field. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast credited him with above-average defense, no small feat for a player whom some prospect evaluators suggested might be a better fit for right field. The 21-year-old looks to have put any questions about his defensive home to bed for the time being.

While Rodríguez is surely thrilled to secure Rookie of the Year honors on its own merits, the selection has a tangible effect on the team as well. The new collective bargaining agreement contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That’s a moot point for Rodríguez, who’d have qualified for a full service year after tallying 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless. He also signed a massive contract extension midseason that overwrites his path to arbitration and free agency.

The second portion of the PPI does come into effect, though. A team that promotes a player for a full service year who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria and entered the year with less than 60 days of MLB service who subsequently finishes top two in ROY balloting (or top three in Cy Young or MVP voting during their pre-arbitration seasons) earns a bonus draft pick after the first round. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster all year, so they’ll collect an extra pick in the 2023 draft in recognition of his achievements.

Rutschman and Kwan check in as runners-up after very strong years in their own right. Baltimore’s catcher hit .254/.362/.445 with 13 home runs in 470 plate appearances. His second-place finish earns him a full year of service time as well. Kwan doesn’t that get that honor for third place, but he earned a full service year after breaking camp in Cleveland regardless. Rutschman’s former teammate at Oregon State, Kwan hit .298/.373/.400 across 638 plate appearances to help the Guards to a division title.

Rodríguez received 29 of 30 first-place votes, while Rutschman collected the other. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the lone voter to place Rutschman ahead of Rodríguez, explained his thought process in a well-reasoned Twitter thread. Rodríguez was the only player to be named on all 30 ballots. Rutschman was selected on 28 ballots, while Kwan earned 24 combined second or third-place votes. Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña and Mariners righty George Kirby also picked up some support.

Full vote breakdown found here.

Mariners Scouting Masataka Yoshida

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The Mariners have joined the growing list of teams interested in Japanese star outfielder Masataka Yoshida, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Morosi adds that the Mariners will be one of Yoshida’s “top suitors” this winter. However, Yoshida’s current team, the Orix Buffaloes, will have to finalize the terms of his posting agreement before the deadline on December 5th.

Yoshida slashed a robust .336/.449/.559 with 21 homers during the 2022 season, his fifth consecutive season with an on-base percentage greater than .400. His blend of contact and power has led to a lot of early interest in the 29-year-old, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that the Yankees are also looking at the left-handed hitter.

During the 2022 season, the Mariners primarily relied on an outfield trio of All-Star Julio Rodriguez and former All-Stars Mitch Haniger and Jesse Winker. That group was aided by utilitymen Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty, former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, and Taylor Trammell. The Mariners also have 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, who spent most of the season in Triple-A Tacoma. Of that group, only Haniger is a free agent, leaving Seattle with a deep outfield mix.

As noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, since Yoshida has not played enough to earn full free agency, the Buffaloes would have to agree to post their star outfielder and would be entitled to a posting fee based on Yoshida’s major league contract. Under the current MLB-NPB agreement, teams interested in Yoshida would have to pay the Buffaloes a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Once posted, Yoshida and his representatives will have only 30 days to negotiate a deal with MLB teams. If no agreement is reached during the 30-day window, Yoshida would have to return to the Buffaloes.

Recent players who made the jump from NPB to MLB include Cubs’ outfielder Seiya Suzuki. In Suzuki’s last season with the Hiroshima Carp, the righty slashed .317/.433/.636 which led him to a five-year, $85MM contract with Chicago. However, Suzuki was only 27-years-old when he transitioned to Majors and had posted an OPS north of 1.000 in three of his last four seasons with the Carp.

Dipoto: Mariners Getting Trade Interest In Chris Flexen

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With six starters on the Mariners’ roster at the moment, fifth starter candidates Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen have both emerged as potential trade candidates. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto confirmed at today’s GM Meetings that other clubs were showing interest in Flexen back at the trade deadline and have expressed continued interest in the right-hander throughout this week’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Flexen isn’t the only Mariners arm who’s drawn interest; Dipoto told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that his team is “getting hit constantly, up and down, with our bullpen, our starters.” However, Dipoto also stressed that he doesn’t plan to subtract from his bullpen via trade, but rather hopes to further augment an already strong relief corps.

As things stand, the Mariners have a deep rotation — with six starters for five spots. Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby make up one of the sport’s best rotation quartets, and they’re trailed by a pair of solid fifth starter options in Flexen and longtime Mariner Marco Gonzales. Seattle also has young Matt Brash as a potential option, and while the thinking is that he’s likely bullpen-bound for the foreseeable future, Dipoto told Divish that Brash would head to Spring Training stretched out as a starter and be downshifted into a relief role if the rotation remained healthy and did not undergo any other changes.

Those potential changes, quite likely, are in reference to a possible trade of Flexen and/or Gonzales. While neither is going to front any team’s rotation, both pitchers are serviceable options in the fourth or fifth spot of a starting staff, and both are relatively affordable. Flexen is set to earn $8MM next season after triggering a vesting option on his contract. He’ll only have three-plus years of service time at that point, but MLBTR has confirmed that the two-year deal Flexen signed upon returning from the KBO allows him to become a free agent next winter. As such, he’s a one-year rental.

Since returning from a one-year stint in the KBO, the 28-year-old Flexen has pitched 317 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball for the Mariners. His 16.5% strikeout rate has been well south of league-average, but he’s better than average in terms of walk rate (6.8%) and limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9). Flexen has also averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start and done a decent job minimizing hard contact.

As for Gonzales, a trade would be tougher to piece together. He’ll turn 31 in February, making him a good bit older than Flexen, and while his $6.5MM salary for the 2023 season is more affordable than that of Flexen, Gonzales is also owed $12MM in 2024. His contract contains a $15MM option for the 2025 season, though that option has no buyout.

Two years at a combined $18.5MM isn’t necessarily egregious for Gonzales, but it’s likely more than he’d fetch in the open market at present. He’s made 67 starts and soaked up 326 1/3 innings with a 4.05 ERA over the past two seasons, but Gonzales has seen his fastball velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate all trend in the wrong direction. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him about a full run worse than his ERA.

Logically speaking, the Mariners appear to be headed toward some form of move involving one of their two back-of-the-rotation options. Flexen, in particular, would seem appealing given the short term remaining on his contract and more reasonable overall commitment, though that’s only my own speculation.

Moving either player would help the Mariners to scale back a projected $131MM payroll next season (hat tip: Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez), not that they necessarily need to. The team’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was $158MM back in 2018, and they took their payroll north of $170MM each year from 2016-18 by way of in-season trades (via Cot’s). That should leave ample payroll space regardless of how the team acts with regard to its rotation.

Still, spending a combined $14.5MM in 2023 payroll on a pair of fifth-starter candidates is, obviously, a sub-optimal arrangement. Shedding some or all of that combined salary will only give Dipoto and his staff more flexibility when it comes to offseason pursuits, and it’s possible that Flexen in particular could help net some immediate help for the big league roster (perhaps with some minor league talent being included by Seattle). As far as potential other targets, Dipoto has already acknowledged that he feels NPB ace Kodai Senga could be an “impact” MLB arm, and he mentioned in the aforementioned Rosenthal column that his club could seek a middle infielder and at least one — if not two — corner outfielders this winter.

Mariners Claim Gabe Speier From Royals; Outright Casey Sadler, Ryan Borucki

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The Mariners announced they have claimed left-hander Gabe Speier off waivers from the Royals. Additionally, they have outrighted lefty Ryan Borucki and right-hander Casey Sadler.

Speier has appeared in each of the last four seasons with the Royals. He hasn’t gotten an extended look over any part of that stretch. This year’s 17 appearances and 19 1/3 innings were career highs, and he’s worked a cumulative 40 innings. Speier has a 3.83 ERA, and his 20.2% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk percentage are right around average.

A former Red Sox draftee, Speier averages around 94 MPH on his sinker but leaned more heavily on his slider. He’s only managed a 6.67 ERA across 112 innings at the Triple-A level, thanks largely to a dismal 14.51 mark over 26 2/3 innings with Omaha this year. Speier was battered for 51 hits and 11 home runs in that stretch, but the M’s will take a shot on a change of scenery. The 27-year-old still has an option year remaining, so the M’s can move him between Seattle and Triple-A Tacoma next year if he holds his spot on the 40-man roster.

Borucki is squeezed off the depth chart in his place. The M’s acquired the southpaw from the Blue Jays this year. The 28-year-old combined for a 5.68 ERA over 25 1/3 innings with the two clubs, only striking out 18.9% of batters faced while struggling to keep the ball in the yard. He was projected for a $1.1MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract, but the M’s evidently determined they weren’t prepared to pay that sum.

Parting with Sadler is a bit more surprising, as the righty was excellent during his last healthy season. He posted a microscopic 0.67 ERA over 40 1/3 innings for the M’s in 2021. He punched out an above-average 25.5% of batters faced and racked up grounders on over three-fifths of batted balls against him. Sadler looked like a high-leverage weapon, but he didn’t pitch in 2022 after undergoing shoulder surgery in Spring Training.

Seattle could’ve retained the 32-year-old by tendering him an arbitration contract, which was projected in the $1.025MM range. They evidently determined not to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter given the injury, and no other club placed a waiver claim despite the chance to retain him at that modest rate.

Both Borucki and Sadler are eligible for minor league free agency, and it’s a virtual lock they’ll each hit the open market in the next few days. Both will serve as experienced depth options for clubs seeking bullpen help, although Sadler may have to demonstrate his health for suitors.

Mariners Acquire Easton McGee From Red Sox

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The Mariners have acquired right-hander Easton McGee from the Red Sox for cash considerations, according to announcements from both teams.

McGee, who turns 25 next month, was originally selected to a big league roster for the first time about six weeks ago, yet is now in his third organization already. A 2016 draft pick of the Rays, he was added to Tampa’s roster at the end of September but quickly designated for assignment after a single appearance. He was claimed by the Red Sox on the final day of the regular season and didn’t get a chance to pitch for them. Though Boston won’t get any contributions from McGee on the field, they will at least get some Seattle cash out of the deal.

McGee has never been a huge strikeout artist but has often succeeded in the minors by inducing a lot of ground balls. His grounder rate has been around 45-50% in most of his minor league seasons, though it dropped to 39.6% over 107 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2022. That led to McGee posting an ERA of 5.43 on the year, though he’d been better than that in previous campaigns. Another thing he has going for him is control, as he’s never posted a walk rate above 4.8%, apart from his rookie ball debut. For reference, the MLB average in 2022 was 8.2%. McGee still has a full slate of options, meaning the Mariners can keep him stashed in the minors as a depth option for the foreseeable future.

Latest On Kodai Senga’s Market

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Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga will be looking to sign with an MLB team this winter. He figures to garner plenty of interest based on his track record of success with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. He’s already been connected to the Cubs, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds the Blue Jays and Mariners to the mix (Twitter links). Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune lists the Padres as interested, while adding that virtually every other team will be as well.

The widespread interest is easy to understand. Just about every team in baseball could use an upgrade in the starting rotation and Senga seems plenty capable of providing that. Turning 30 in January, he already has a years-long track record of success in Japan. Most recently, he tossed 144 innings in 2022 with a 1.94 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

Adding to the interest will be that Senga is a proper free agent and not subject to the posting system. When players come over from Japan or Korea, they will usually be posted by their NPB or KBO team. The MLB team that signs the player would have to pay a fee to the posting team, which is not a cut of the contract. It’s an additional cost that is not subtracted from what the player is owed. However, the Hawks have a policy against posting their players and thus held onto Senga until their control over his services was exhausted. Going into his final year of control, he signed an extension with the team but one that allowed him the opportunity to opt out and become a proper free agent. That means that whoever signs Senga will not have to pay any extra fees to the Hawks.

The Blue Jays make for a fairly logical Senga suitor, given their starting pitching struggles in 2022. The Jays were able to win 92 games on the year but did so largely on the strength of their lineup and in spite of a lopsided starting rotation. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman were excellent and provided the club with a strong one-two punch, but that was also offset by poor performances from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi.

In the case of Berríos, he kept his ERA steadily between 3.52 and 4.00 for the five previous seasons before seeing it balloon up to 5.23 in his first full season with Toronto. Kikuchi was up-and-down during his time with the Mariners but posted a 5.19 ERA after signing a three-year deal with the Jays. Mitch White, acquired from the Dodgers in a deadline deal when he had a 3.70 ERA, ended up posting a 7.74 figure in his time with Toronto. After Hyun Jin Ryu required Tommy John surgery, swingman Ross Stripling stepped up and seized a rotation job, finishing the year with a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 innings. However, he’s now a free agent, leaving the Jays with a rotation of two solid starters and three question marks.

For the Padres, they also make good sense as a landing spot for Senga since they are seeing two holes open up in their rotation. Both Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are now free agents, leaving the club’s rotation with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. They also subtracted from their depth options at the deadline when MacKenzie Gore was included in the Juan Soto trade. One other wild card is Nick Martinez, who began 2022 in the rotation before getting bumped to the bullpen. He can opt out of his deal and become a free agent though his decision on that matter hasn’t yet been reported publicly.

Darvish and Snell are also set to reach free agency after 2023, leaving Musgrove as potentially the last man standing in 2024. Making a significant addition to the rotation would be sensible for the Padres both in the short term and the long term. They have some internal options to potentially help them out, with Adrian Morejon and Jay Groome on hand. However, Morejon missed most of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and worked in relief when he returned in 2022. The club is reportedly not giving up on him as a starter just yet, but he will likely have to earn his way into a job by proving his health and effectiveness. Groome has shown a lot of potential in the minors but has yet to make his MLB debut and will also likely have to force his way into the picture.

The Mariners are less of an obvious fit than the other two teams here, as they actually seem to have a rotation surplus at the moment. The acquisition and subsequent extension of Luis Castillo gave them a strong front four, including Robbie Ray, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. They also have a pair of good options for the final rotation spot in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Since Flexen was bumped to the bullpen after Castillo came aboard and is now just one year away from free agency, he’s been speculated as a trade candidate. Signing someone like Senga would add to a situation that’s already fairly crowded, though it wouldn’t necessarily be out of character for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to make a move that leads to other moves. He didn’t get the nickname “Trader Jerry” for nothing, after all.

Of course, Senga’s market surely isn’t limited to these three teams. As Acee mentioned, just about every club is likely to have some degree of interest in him, the old adage about never having too much pitching getting heavy usage in the offseason and whatnot. The top of the free agent market for starting pitchers will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. Those three will surely require massive contracts that will price out some teams, leaving Senga as an attractive option on the next tier.

Mariners To Select Prelander Berroa

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The Mariners are planning to select right-hander Prelander Berroa onto their 40-man roster, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). The 22-year-old would otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, and Seattle will keep him away from other clubs by adding him to the 40-man.

Seattle acquired Berroa in May, adding him from the Giants in a deal that sent utilityman Donovan Walton to San Francisco. It was the second trade of Berroa’s young career, as he’d previously gone from the Twins to the Giants in a 2019 deadline deal. A native of the Dominican Republic, Berroa draws praise from evaluators for his fastball-slider combination but has some questions about his control.

That was mostly borne out in his 2022 numbers. Berroa split his time between High-A and Double-A, starting all 26 of his appearances. He posted a cumulative 2.86 ERA through 100 2/3 innings, striking out an incredible 36.5% of batters faced. He also walked an elevated 12.6% of opponents, highlighting that his strike-throwing remains a work in progress. Nevertheless, the M’s feel there’s a chance another club would’ve plugged Berroa directly onto the MLB roster next year given the quality of his stuff.

Mariners Won’t Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Haniger

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The Mariners aren’t going to extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Morosi of MLB Network had earlier reported that Haniger was unlikely to get a QO.

Haniger has been an interesting borderline QO candidate since he’s been a consistently excellent hitter for years but has struggled to stay healthy for extended stretches. Since coming over from the Diamondbacks in a trade prior to the 2017 season, Haniger has played in five seasons for the Mariners, putting up a wRC+ above 100 in each of them.

He was relatively healthy in 2017, getting into 96 games that year, followed by 157 in 2018. However, he was limited to just 63 contests in 2019 and then missed the 2020 campaign entirely. In 2021, he had a tremendous return, getting into 157 games, hitting 39 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .253/.318/.485 and a 121 wRC+. Unfortunately, the injury bug came for him again in 2022, with Haniger making multiple trips to the IL due to ankle sprains. He was still good when on the field, as he hit .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he did that in only 57 games on the year.

That is the story of Haniger at this point. He’s always a good producer when he steps up to the plate, it’s just hard to know how often he’ll be doing it. Extending the qualifying offer would come with risk, since those injuries have helped suppress his arbitration earnings. Haniger gradually pushed his salary up throughout the arb process, getting to $7.75MM here in 2022. If he suddenly had the chance to play for $19.65MM, it would likely be difficult for him to turn it down.

The Mariners are currently projected by Roster Resource to have a 2023 payroll of $132MM. Suddenly adding that $19.65MM figure into the mix would get them pretty close to their franchise record of $158MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Haniger could certainly be worth that investment but another injury-marred campaign could hamper the team’s ability to continue competing going forward.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet that it seems the Mariners have decided not to make. That means Haniger will now head to the open market to see how other teams value him. Since Haniger’s future contributions are difficult to gauge, it’s possible there will be wide variance in how different teams evaluate him. However, for teams looking to steer clear of QO’d free agents in order to avoid forfeiting draft picks, Haniger could certainly pique their interest.

He will be one of the more interesting names available in the corner outfield market this winter. Aaron Judge is the obvious headliner but the next tier with feature Haniger alongside names like Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

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