2014-15 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

By Jeff Todd | March 25, 2015 at 2:41pm CDT

The Mets picked around the edges this winter after entering the offseason committed to fielding a contender built from in-house pieces; indeed, Matt Harvey’s return is probably better than any free agent addition that might have been had. While optimism reigns in Queens, the club is already dealing with the early losses of Zack Wheeler and Josh Edgin to elbow surgery.

Major League Signings

OF Michael Cuddyer: two years, $21MM
OF John Mayberry Jr.: one year, $1.45MM
Total Spend: $22.45MM

Notable Minor League Signings

1B Brandon Allen, RP Duane Below, RP Buddy Carlyle, OF Alex Castellanos, C Johnny Monell, RP Scott Rice

Trades And Claims

Claimed Sean Gilmartin from Twins in Rule 5 draft

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

OF Bobby Abreu, 1B/OF Andrew Brown, C Juan Centeno, RP Gonzalez Germen, SP Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP/RP Logan Verrett (Rule 5 selection of Orioles), OF Eric Young Jr.

Needs Addressed

Despite plenty of viable arms in the rotation mix, the Mets nevertheless added one of the best pitchers in the game to their rotation. Of course, Matt Harvey was already under team control, but nursing him back to health and getting him back on the bump does more for New York’s chances than any actual transactions that the club could have made.

GM Sandy Alderson’s most impactful decision was the signing of Cuddyer. That came as a major surprise, as the veteran outfielder had appeared destined to become the first player ever to accept a qualifying offer. He chose instead to decline that one-year deal and sign with the Mets, inking for a fairly reasonable guarantee but also costing the team a mid-first round pick in this year’s amateur draft. New York had an obvious need in the corner outfield, and chose to bank on Cuddyer’s ability to stay productive despite questions about his health (he had DL stints for shoulder and thigh issues last year) and age (he’ll soon turn 36).

Of course, some might argue that an even more important choice was the team’s lack of action at shortstop. Some reports, and persistent speculation, pegged the Mets as suitors for both Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Desmond, two of the game’s very best overall shortstops. Whether or not either were serious possibilities, the end result is that 23-year-old Wilmer Flores will enter the year as the starter. (More on that below.)

Otherwise, the club largely picked around the edges of the roster. John Mayberry Jr. will serve as a bench bat and could see time in the corner outfield and at first base. But he and Cuddyer represent the entirety of the Mets’ major league commitments.

New York was even fairly quiet in terms of adding veteran minor league free agents, preferring instead to rely primarily on in-house options to round out the bench and staff. Among the players that were signed, only bullpen candidates Buddy Carlyle and Scott Rice appear to have much of a chance of making the roster.

Questions Remaining

Shortstop remains a source of controversy and intrigue for the Mets. Flores had a fairly promising 2014 campaign, slashing .251/.286/.378 and playing surprisingly well-reviewed defense, but he is far from a proven commodity. The same holds all the more true of presumptive backup Ruben Tejada, still just 25, who has failed to lock down the job despite nearly 2,000 MLB plate appearances over the last five seasons. If that combination falters, a mid-season acquisition and/or major free agent pursuit could ensue.

Uncertainty of a different kind looms at second, where Daniel Murphy is entering his final season of team control. There seems to be little chance of an extension, and Murphy could become a trade candidate if the club fails to stay in contention. An extended look for one or more future replacement candidates could come earlier than expected if Murphy’s hamstring pull forces him to miss time. Leading the way as a long-term option is Dilson Herrera, who cracked the bigs at age 20 last year and looks to be a gem mined by Alderson in the 2013 Marlon Byrd trade. But older, lower-upside minor leaguers like Matt Reynolds or Danny Muno appear to be first in line for a short-term run.

Elsewhere in the everyday lineup, it’s all about trusting and hoping for performance. Cuddyer and Curtis Granderson are established big leaguers at the corner outfield positions, but both come with their share of questions. In the infield corners, Lucas Duda will look to build on his strong 2014 while David Wright will aim for a rebound to his top-level form. Up the middle, backstop Travis d’Arnaud and center fielder Juan Lagares will look to cement themselves as fixtures for years to come.

In terms of bench roles, the lack of options will play a significant role. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently reported, reserve candidates Mayberry, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Cesar Puello all lack option years (as do Flores and Tejada). The first two of those names seem destined for bench spots, while the 23-year-old Puello, who has yet to see big league action, could end up looking for a new team.

The rotation is loaded with a variety of candidates, and is the clear strength of this roster. That holds true even with 24-year-old righty Zack Wheeler out for the season after Tommy John surgery, because the team never pulled the trigger on dealing Dillon Gee and has an armada of young arms lining up at Triple-A. All eyes will be on Harvey, of course, especially if there is cause to question the team’s handling of his return from his own TJ procedure. Jacob deGrom will look to prove that his unexpected 2014 was no fluke, while a trio of veterans (Gee, Jon Niese, Bartolo Colon) fill things out. Should the need arise, well-regarded hurlers such as Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz will be on hand to step in.

The bullpen, too, seemed to be shaping up nicely with its most established piece, Bobby Parnell, set to return early in the season after missing virtually all of 2014. Adding him to a late-inning mix that includes Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, and Vic Black seemed likely to form the core of a solid unit. There’s probably an argument to be made that another quality, veteran arm could have been added to this group, particularly since Parnell was (and still is) no sure thing.

It remains to be seen whether the club will regret not bolstering its right-handed reserves, but it already seems clear that the failure to add more southpaws will create challenges. Josh Edgin, the team’s lone established lefty, was lost for the year to TJ surgery just days after the last veterans were snapped up off the open market. The club will presumably keep an eye out for players missing out on other rosters later this spring, but otherwise will be forced to lean on the 33-year-old Rice or untested options such as Dario Alvarez and Rule 5 pick Sean Gilmartin.

Deal Of Note

The Cuddyer signing came as a legitimate surprise, in large part because many believed that he would be forced into taking the qualifying offer to avoid too great a dent into his market. But by lining up a deal before his deadline came, his representatives were able to avoid the fate of several draft compensation bound players who came before.

From the perspective of the Mets, the decision to sacrifice a valuable pick to add the aging and injury-prone Cuddyer is at least worth questioning. One charge that has often been leveled at the team of late is that it its ownership group is unwilling (or unable) to maintain a salary befitting the club’s large-market status. Sacrificing a pick rather than paying more for a comparably valuable player fits that narrative to some extent, at least at first glance.

But the reality is that Cuddyer represents a rather particular player that, arguably, makes particular sense for this club. One of the game’s most respected clubhouse members, Cuddyer could play an important role in bringing the team along competitively without requiring a huge commitment. While his numbers in Colorado were obviously aided by playing in Coors Field, and he posted rather wide home/road splits last year, he mashed everywhere during his excellent 2013 campaign.

Cuddyer is a poor defender, in addition to the above-noted risks, but that segment of the market does not contain flawless players. The alternatives in the general price range — players such as Nick Markakis, Colby Rasmus, Michael Morse, and Torii Hunter — all come with their own question marks. And it is not difficult to think of reasons that the Mets preferred Cuddyer among this group. When it turned out that his price tag included the sacrifice of a pick, that was simply one of the factors to be weighed, and there is an argument to be made that the team showed resolve to win by giving up that future value to obtain him.

Of course, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes notes, Cuddyer seems to be a great fit as the right-handed-hitting portion of a time share at first. Duda struggles against same-handed pitching while mashing righties, seemingly creating a nice match. While the team has given indication that it intends to allow Duda to try to work out his issues in that regard, potentially limiting Cuddyer’s time at first, he remains a very appealing option in such a role if Duda cannot turn things around.

Overview

Of course, there is a plausible scenario where the Cuddyer deal turns out poorly. But its limited duration cabins the risk. The most stringent questions about this offseason will probably come if Flores and Tejada struggle. While it is easy to defend the decision not to dabble in a free agent market at short that featured names like Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera, and it is fairly likely that it would have taken a huge prospect outlay to land Tulowitzki or Desmond, the fact remains that Alderson and co. have much at stake in how those young players (Flores, in particular) come through this year.

The same holds true to a lesser extent in the relief corps, where the team seemingly passed on plenty of opportunities to add veterans. But the end of the spring and the summer trade market should hold plenty of solutions if the need is there and the Mets are in contention.

On the whole, this offseason was less about pushing the organization’s chips onto the table than it was about gathering its young core for a first real effort at winning. There will be plenty of disappointment if that does not occur — and plenty of blame directed at ownership and the front office. From one perspective, at least, the real test of the team’s willingness and ability to spend will probably come next year, with a 2015-16 free agent market that is shaping up to be one of the strongest in years.

Of course, an alternative read of the Mets’ winter is that the club decided not to invest in a winner. The total outlay did not exactly set the pace league-wide, and stands in some contrast within the division to the Nationals’ signing of Max Scherzer, the Marlins’ significant investments (mostly through trades and extensions), and even the Braves’ roster reshaping. All will probably be forgotten if the Mets compete to the wire, but there could be some what-ifs here. New York will field a highly variable team with its share of both upside and downside, and it is eminently arguable that some thoughtful additional moves would have raised the floor and provided some depth for a full year of competition.

Perhaps, then, the true test will come this summer: if New York is in the hunt and has a few areas of need, will it part with prospects and/or commit payroll to bolster its roster down the stretch?

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | March 25, 2015 at 10:00am CDT

The Cubs made multiple splashes this winter, spending big to bring in Jon Lester and Joe Maddon while also rounding out their rotation and adding a new starting catcher and center fielder.

Major League Signings

Jon Lester, SP: six years, $155MM. $25MM mutual option for 2021 with a $10MM buyout. Guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 in 2019-20. Full no-trade clause.
Jason Hammel, SP: two years, $20MM. $12MM club option for 2017 with a $2MM buyout. May void based on 2016 performance.
David Ross, C: two years, $5MM.
Jason Motte, RP: one year, $4.5MM.
Tsuyoshi Wada, SP: one year, $4MM.
Chris Denorfia, OF: one year, $2.6MM.
Jacob Turner, SP: one year, $1MM (club option exercised).
Total spend: $192.1MM.
Joe Maddon, Manager: five years, $25MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Phil Coke, Francisley Bueno, Daniel Bard, Jonathan Herrera, Mike Baxter, Adron Chambers, Taylor Teagarden, Chris Valaika, Pedro Feliciano

Trades And Claims

Claimed RP Joe Ortiz off waivers from Rangers.
Claimed RP Donn Roach off waivers from Padres.
Acquired IF Tommy La Stella from Braves for RP Arodys Vizcaino. Deal included swap of international bonus slots that netted Braves $832K in pool money.
Acquired C Miguel Montero from Diamondbacks for RP Zack Godley and RP Jeferson Mejia.
Acquired cash from Angels for Rule 5 pick Taylor Featherston.
Acquired RP Matt Brazis from Mariners for OF Justin Ruggiano.
Claimed RP Mike Kickham off waivers from Giants. Later traded to Mariners for SP Lars Huijer.
Acquired CF Dexter Fowler from Astros for IF Luis Valbuena and SP Dan Straily.
Claimed RP Gonzalez Germen off waivers from Rangers.
Claimed RP Drake Britton off waivers from Red Sox.

Notable Losses

Luis Valbuena, Dan Straily, Justin Ruggiano, Carlos Villanueva, Wesley Wright, John Baker, Ryan Kalish, Zack Godley, Jeferson Mejia, James McDonald, Kyuji Fujikawa

Needs Addressed

Manager Joe Maddon surprised the baseball world by opting out of his Rays contract in late October, a clause triggered when top executive Andrew Friedman jumped to the Dodgers. Cubs manager Rick Renteria was fired a week later. In a statement on Halloween, Cubs president Theo Epstein explained he made the difficult decision to be loyal to the organization rather than being loyal to Renteria, who had been expected to manage the Cubs in 2015. Maddon’s deal with the Cubs was announced hours later.

The Rays contend Maddon opted out after talking to the Cubs, and MLB is investigating the Cubs for tampering. In February, new Commissioner Rob Manfred said a decision regarding that charge will be made prior to Opening Day. Aside from perhaps strained relations between the two clubs, it’s difficult to imagine the Cubs suffering any penalty of consequence even if they are found guilty. The series of events feels a little dirty, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports put it, but in the end, the Cubs now have one of the best-regarded managers in baseball.

After declining a $5MM option on Wada, the Cubs inked him to a non-guaranteed deal worth $4MM. The 34-year-old showed promise as a back-rotation option in a small sample of 13 starts in 2014, and the cost was minimal. Travis Wood was also retained, with an arbitration contract worth $5.685MM. He’s consistently shown the skills of a 4.40 ERA pitcher. With Wood a borderline non-tender candidate and Wada potentially ticketed for Triple-A to start the season, it’s fair to ask whether the Cubs could have found a better way to spend nearly $10MM.

Also in November, the Cubs picked up La Stella in a trade with the Braves. Though GM Jed Hoyer insisted the move wasn’t a precursor to anything, La Stella fits nicely as a replacement for Valbuena, who was traded in January. We’ll look at that trade under the Deal Of Note section.

The Cubs had a functional catcher under control in Welington Castillo, but clearly felt that was an area to upgrade. They kicked off their offseason with a pursuit of Russell Martin, by far the best available option. The Cubs ended up finishing in second on Martin, though there’s no evidence they got close to the five-year, $82MM deal he signed with the Blue Jays.

Though it was thought the Cubs were in the Martin market rather than the catching market, they executed on Plan B by acquiring Montero during the Winter Meetings. With a minimal cost in prospects, the acquisition was akin to signing Montero to a three-year, $40MM free agent deal (the amount remaining on his contract). The Montero and Ross acquisitions suggest a conscious effort to improve the team’s pitch-framing, an area in which Castillo rates poorly. Veteran leadership was also a factor.

Still, there’s a reason a willingness to take on Montero’s contract was most of what was needed to acquire him – the 31-year-old hit .237/.324/.358 over the last two seasons and makes more than $13MM annually through 2017. In Montero, Wood, Motte, Denorfia, and Ross, the Cubs took on almost $58MM in commitments to five players who weren’t very good in 2014.

The Cubs also brought Hammel back as the Winter Meetings began, locking in their secondary rotation piece at a lower than expected price. It was thought that Hammel might command a three-year deal, but perhaps he was just motivated to return to Chicago. The Cubs had reportedly looked at Justin Masterson as an alternative; he signed a one-year, $9.5MM deal with Boston.

The Winter Meetings was also the site of the Cubs’ biggest winter splash, as they completed their tense pursuit of Lester with the largest contract in franchise history. The lofty $155MM price tag matched expectations, and after years of conserving payroll, the Cubs can certainly afford it. The Cubs need their new ace to be a workhorse, a trait that’s missing from the team’s other projected starters. Any deal of this magnitude and length for a starting pitcher carries a lot of risk, but the Lester signing addressed the team’s biggest need without sacrificing young cornerstone players or a draft pick.

Also in December, the Cubs picked up Motte on a low-risk deal to complement their bullpen. The former Cardinals closer will be two years removed from Tommy John surgery in May. The Cubs’ bullpen could be deep if Motte rediscovers his 2012 form.

Questions Remaining

As James Shields’ free agency dragged into February, the Cubs got involved in hopes of a bargain. According to Pat Mooney of CSNChicago.com, “The Cubs made Shields a backloaded offer that started at $60 million over four years. That morphed into a three-year, $60 million concept that included a significant amount of deferred money and a vesting option that would still cap the overall value at less than $80 million.”

As with Martin, the Cubs finished in second, but nowhere close to the player’s ultimate contract. Shields would have gone a long way toward answering the Cubs’ remaining rotation question marks. Even if Lester’s spring “dead arm” phase turns out to be nothing, none of the Cubs’ No. 2-4 starters (Jake Arrieta, Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks) have ever pitched 185 innings in a season. The Cubs have also shown continued interest in Cole Hamels. Such a deal could potentially happen this summer if the Cubs are willing to take the hit in giving up a young potential star.

The Cubs made the wise and expected choice to keep starting shortstop Starlin Castro, as the team’s impressive infield depth behind him has yet to fully arrive. The long-term look of the Cubs’ middle infield may start to be determined this year, depending on how Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Arismendy Alcantara perform. Could Castro be moved this summer? We have seen that move from Theo Epstein’s playbook once before. For now, it will be Baez and Castro at second base and shortstop, with Russell potentially ready by midseason. Alcantara is valuable now in a super-utility role. The surplus has yet to manifest itself.

The Cubs have more immediate roster issues to address before the April 5th opener. With no strong offers for Castillo, the team is currently leaning toward opening the season with three catchers (none of whom can play another position). Epstein says Maddon has been “pounding the table” for three catchers, but it reduces the team’s flexibility if non-catchers need days off. The versatility of Alcantara, La Stella, and Denorfia would be crucial in a three-catcher scenario.

The Cubs also don’t have enough bullpen spots to retain everyone currently on their 40-man roster. Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Neil Ramirez, Jason Motte, Justin Grimm, and Phil Coke appear locked in, leaving one spot for Edwin Jackson and out of options relievers Drake Britton and Felix Doubront (assuming Wada goes to the minors or the DL). The disabled list could solve this logjam, or the Cubs can just release the worst two of the three.

Perhaps the biggest question for Cubs fans is, “When will Kris Bryant join the roster?” The third base phenom has clubbed nine home runs in 11 spring training games, but the Cubs would lose the ability to control him for the 2021 season if they put him on the Opening Day roster. Stashing him in Iowa for a few more weeks is the prudent thing to do, even if agent Scott Boras thinks the Cubs are “damaging the ethics and brand of Major League Baseball.”

I do want to play devil’s advocate to the commonly accepted wisdom that Bryant should not open the season with the Cubs. Say the Cubs wait until April 15th, meaning Bryant misses out on the bare minimum of eight potential big league games. Projections suggest the Cubs are sacrificing less than 0.3 wins above replacement in this scenario. However, I don’t think WAR was meant to be employed this way, and a player with Bryant’s talent could easily affect the outcome of one or two games within eight (or more). A single well-timed home run can do that. And the Cubs could easily miss the playoffs by one game this year. The 2010 Braves opened the season with Jason Heyward and won the Wild Card by one game. I’d probably cook up a reason to hold off on selecting Bryant’s contract, perhaps health or defense-related, but I don’t think it’s open-and-shut.

Deal Of Note

The Cubs’ January acquisition of Dexter Fowler may have flown under the radar because of Lester. The trade, which sent Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily to Houston, was a better allocation of resources for both teams. The Cubs didn’t have a true center fielder on the roster, and mostly because of Bryant, they didn’t really need Valbuena (the game’s 15th-best third baseman by WAR in 2014). Fowler projects for the highest on-base percentage on the Cubs, and the team thinks it found a way he can improve defensively. Beyond defensive concerns, Fowler has battled health issues. But if all goes well, he could be a qualifying offer candidate for the Cubs after the season.

Overview

The Cubs flirted with some huge moves in the 2013-14 offseason, and a year later they finally brought in their big-name manager and ace starter. Still, they’re keeping a relatively low payroll to start 2015, and probably could have afforded and justified an all-in plunge for Lester, Martin, and one of Shields, Ervin Santana, or Brandon McCarthy.

Second-guessing aside, the stakes are high for the first time in Theo Epstein’s tenure. The Cubs will be viewed as a disappointment if they don’t make the playoffs. They appear to be primed for sustained success, but it would be nice to get some actual wins on the board.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By Jeff Todd | March 24, 2015 at 6:17pm CDT

The Phillies officially embarked on a rebuilding effort, but several key trade chips remain with the organization as the season approaches.

Major League Signings

SP Aaron Harang: one year, $5MM
SP Chad Billingsley: one year, $1.5MM
RP Elvis Araujo: one year, $507,500 (estimated)
Total Spend: $7.075MM

Notable Minor League Signings

INF Andres Blanco, OF Brian Bogusevic, INF/OF Russ Canzler, SP Paul Clemens, OF Chase d’Arnaud, RP Jeanmar Gomez, OF Jeff Francoeur, C John Hester, C Koyie Hill, OF Darin Mastroianni, 1B Chris McGuiness, 3B Chris Nelson, SP Sean O’Sullivan, INF/OF Cord Phelps, SP/RP Kevin Slowey

Trades And Claims

Acquired SP Zach Eflin, SP Tom Windle from Dodgers in exchange for SS Jimmy Rollins and $1MM
Acquired SP Ben Lively from Reds in exchange for OF Marlon Byrd and $4MM
Acquired RP Joely Rodriguez from Pirates in exchange for RP Antonio Bastardo
Claimed OF Jordan Danks from White Sox
Claimed OF Odubel Herrera from Rangers in Rule 5 draft
Claimed RP Andy Oliver from Pirates in Rule 5 draft

Extensions

OF Grady Sizemore: one year, $2MM
SP/RP Jerome Williams: one year, $2.5MM

Notable Losses

Mike Adams (declined club option), Antonio Bastardo, A.J. Burnett (declined player option), Marlon Byrd, Kyle Kendrick, Wil Nieves, Jimmy Rollins

Needs Addressed

This winter, for Philadelphia, addressing needs meant opening up holes on the big league roster in exchange for salary relief and youth. Simply put, none of the team’s trades made sense from the perspective of competing in 2015. To the contrary, each obviously made the team worse in the near term — but all fit in the bigger picture.

In addition to the public comments of newly-rehired club president Pat Gillick and GM Ruben Amaro Jr., dealing away franchise cornerstone Jimmy Rollins was the surest sign yet that the organization is committed to turning over its roster. Though it had been unclear whether the still-productive veteran would waive his no-trade clause to facilitate a deal, he ultimately chose to accept a move to the powerful Dodgers.

Of course, it was the long-anticipated parting with useful lefty Antonio Bastardo that kicked things off. And by the time he and Rollins were gone, a deal involving the aging Marlon Byrd seemed all but inevitable, and it was not long before he was ticketed for Cincinnati. Of course, that same reasoning seemingly applied to several other key veterans; yet, as discussed further below, that trio is as yet unaccompanied in departing.

Regarding the return on those assets, only time will tell whether Amaro chose wisely. Certainly, none of the players acquired appear to have terribly impactful futures in store. The cumulative haul, however, added a good bit of depth to the organization’s pitching ranks, together constituting the type of move that could pay dividends down the line by enhancing flexibility and limiting the need to pay market rates to fill out the roster.

Rollins, Byrd, and Bastardo were once key components on the active roster, of course, so replacement options had to be found. At short, Freddy Galvis figures to take the majority of the innings, but that just opened a utility role on the bench. The club brought in a variety of infielders on minor league deals to join the mix with the versatile Cesar Hernandez. Another possibility to see time in a utility capacity is Rule 5 pick Obudel Herrera, an infielder in Texas who is learning to apply his speed on the outfield grass.

As for the outfield, Grady Sizemore profiles as a more-or-less direct replacement for many of Byrd’s plate appearances from the corner. Otherwise, the team appears to be staging an open competition among numerous non-roster veterans to take on outfield bench roles. And three of the team’s offseason additions — Joely Rodriguez, Elvis Araujo, and Rule 5 pick-up Andy Oliver — were added to join Mario Hollands in filling the lefthanded relief void in Bastardo’s wake. Rodriguez and Araujo have already been optioned to Triple-A, and Hollands was just shut down with a tendon injury, leaving Oliver looking good to crack the MLB roster as the second lefty.

Likewise, departing starters Kyle Kendrick and A.J. Burnett — the latter of whom declined his $12.75MM club option to sign for nearly $5MM less with the Pirates — left rotation innings to be filled. Philadelphia opted to bring in the durable Aaron Harang and veteran swingman Jerome Williams while rolling the dice on a return to form for the injury-addled Chad Billingsley.

Taken as a whole, it is obviously hard to get excited about the new additions to the Philly roster. It was remarkable that Sizemore was able to return to a big league level of play last year after his long run of injuries, but entering his age-32 season after a more-or-less replacement level 2014, there is little reason to think he can make it all the way back to his former All-Star form. Likewise, Harang seemingly offers good value after a strong effort last year, and could conceivably bring a return at the trade deadline, but he does not offer much in the way of upside.

More might be hoped for from the talented Billingsley, who is still just 30 years old, but he has racked up all of 12 innings since the 2012 season and still needs to answer a lot of questions before he can even get back to the bump in a major league game. It’s a modest risk at $1.5MM, though Billingsley can bump his earnings up an additional $5MM through incentives. Philadelphia would gladly pay that if it can get innings from the veteran righty, who at least offers some possibility of bringing back real value if he can establish himself heading into the summer.

Questions Remaining

Once again, it is worth separating the club’s forward-looking situation from its immediate needs in 2015. With the focus on 2016 — or, perhaps, beyond — we’ll start with the former.

By kicking in a significant amount of cash to accompany Byrd (and, to a lesser extent, Rollins), the large-budget Phils evidenced a willingness to buy down contracts to improve the marketability of their costly veteran player assets. But the divestiture process slowed after early progress, and at present seems all but stalled.

Looking at the books as things stand, a half-dozen players stand out for their experience and cost on an admittedly rebuilding team: Cole Hamels ($96MM over four years + vesting option), Ryan Howard ($60MM over two years + club option), Cliff Lee ($37.5MM over one year + vesting option), Jonathan Papelbon ($13MM over one year + vesting option), Carlos Ruiz ($17.5MM over two years + club option), and Chase Utley ($15MM + three successive vesting options). The star power of that group is undeniable. In both 2008 and 2009, those six players combined to produce better than 25 fWAR (not all with Philadelphia, of course). But those days are long past: in each of the past two seasons, this group has been valued at about 15 fWAR. That’s still plenty useful, of course; then again, Philadelphia owes $105MM to the above-named players for 2015 alone.

Clearly, it was never realistic to expect this organization — fresh off a big new TV deal that should maintain the club’s spending advantages — to part with all of its veterans in one fell swoop. And practicalities such as the size of the deals and a variety of restrictive no-trade clauses also present barriers. Nevertheless, it is fair to question, as many have, whether more could have been accomplished over the offseason. Likewise, one of the two biggest questions currently facing the franchise is whether, when, and how it will cash in those player contracts. (The other? Its ability to acquire and develop a new wave of young talent.)

Hamels, of course, has drawn the most attention; winter rumors involving the Red Sox alone could fill a book. Amaro has repeatedly maintained that he has no intention of simply taking what he can get for the 31-year-old lefty, with reports suggesting that the club is looking for impact prospects and is disinclined to cover much (if any) of the remaining dollars left on the deal.

It is hard to judge this situation without knowing what has been offered, but it seems to me at least that there has been a rush to come down hard on Amaro. Hamels is clearly a valuable asset, in spite of his substantial contract, and the team would be doing little more than bowing to public pressure were it to part with him for young players that it did not believe in. Of course, he is not terribly young, and the risk of injury and/or performance decline cannot be ignored. But Philly can certainly afford Hamels, and it is at least plausible to think that holding him for the trade deadline (or, later this spring) is preferable to taking whatever might currently be on the table.

That has not stopped many from pointing to the recent experience with Lee as a sign that the Phillies are foolish for not auctioning Hamels immediately. The veteran ace seems all but certain to take home his last $37.5MM from the club without bringing any trade value in return — if he comes back to pitch again at all. But every arm is different, and it seems the real lesson from Lee is less about dodging the risk of injury than it is about realizing when the a team’s competition window is closed.

Regardless, losing the possibility of achieving any value from Lee is a big loss for the Phils. Howard and Papelbon could still bring back some cost savings and/or useful pieces. The former could still be a desirable player to roster, especially for an AL team, but is owed so much that the club will need to eat a huge amount of money to deal him even if he does perform. Papelbon, at least, comes with some flexibility at this point, particularly since he has remained quite productive despite a drop-off in his fastball velocity. A big first half could make the 34-year-old an attractive target at the deadline, when relief pitching has by far its greatest value and by which time an acquiring team may be more comfortable with his vesting option. (If he has performed well enough to that point, the idea of a $13MM salary may not be so terrible; if not, the Phillies can drop him from the closer’s role in favor of young fireballer Ken Giles to avoid being on the hook.)

It is at least somewhat interesting that we have heard very little on the possibilities of trades involving the team’s two other highly-paid veterans, Ruiz and Utley. That could be because the front office decided not to trade the pair of holdovers from the organization’s glory days — or, at least, not to market them. On the other hand, both were above-average regulars last year, and could well hold fairly significant appeal to contending clubs this summer.

The relatively younger, relatively less expensive portions of the roster are not without issues, either. Domonic Brown is entering a make-or-break season after following his strong 2013 with a terrible effort last year, though he could start out on the DL with tendinitis in his left Achilles tendon. And fellow outfielder Ben Revere needs to prove that he can hit for a high enough average and play good enough defense to make up for his lackluster on-base and power numbers. Depending upon how things play out, either could conceivably be viewed as a piece of the future, dealt, or non-tendered after the season.

Corner infield also figures to be an area to watch in 2015. Entering his age-25 season, Cody Asche still has a lot to prove at the hot corner but did at least demonstrate that he is not overmatched by MLB pitching. Coming up behind him, of course, is the highly-touted Maikel Franco. Still just 22, Franco seems ticketed for Triple-A to start the year but could push his way onto the roster at some point. He was not dominant in his first run at the highest level of the minors last year, struggled in a brief call-up, and could ultimately be shifted across the diamond to first. Of course, a combination of Howard and Darin Ruf currently occupies that role, so the team’s actions with regard to Howard and the progress of Asche, Ruf, and Franco this year could go a long way toward pointing the future at those positions.

Up the middle, the team is probably in something of a holding pattern. Until we hear otherwise, Utley and Ruiz remained entrenched at second and catcher, respectively. And Galvis will likely keep the seat warm for top prospect J.P. Crawford, who is still just 20 years of age and has not seen action above the High-A level.

On the other side of the equation, the rotation is a huge question mark heading into the season. The focus will remain on Hamels, no doubt, unless and until he is dealt. Behind him, Harang and Williams are at least known quantities, and can be counted on to sop up innings. Billingsley represents a wild card, with Lee a mere lottery ticket at this stage. 25-year-old David Buchanan seems fairly assured of a slot after a sturdy debut campaign last year, though he appears to be a back-of-the-rotation type. The aforementioned Rodriguez, a 23-year-old picked up in exchange for Bastardo, was said to be in the running to take the fifth slot out of camp but was recently sent down. Otherwise, some combination of Kevin Slowey, Miguel Gonzalez, Paul Clemens, and Sean O’Sullivan could be deployed. Top 2014 draft pick Aaron Nola looks like a quick mover, but was not invited to big league camp and probably will not figure into the club’s plans this year unless he advances even faster than expected. All told, there is immense uncertainty in this unit, which has the potential to be downright awful — particularly if Hamels is taken out of the equation.

If there is a clear bright spot at present, it may lie in a bullpen that now features not only the veteran Papelbon, but a rising closer-of-the-future in Ken Giles. It remains to be seen whether the Phils will look to move Giles into the 9th inning this year, but he was rather dominant as a rookie last season and certainly profiles into that role. Jake Diekman, a lefty, also possesses intimidating stuff and could combine with Giles to form a devastating combination for years to come. Justin De Fratus put up impressive numbers last year as well, and will look to establish himself as part of that group. There are several other options, many of them mentioned above, with the two most interesting being Gonzalez and fellow righty Phillippe Aumont. The former has shown little sign of delivering on the three-year, $12MM deal he signed out of Cuba last year, while the latter is the last man standing from the 2009 deal that sent Lee to the Mariners. Now out of options, Aumont will need to produce or will likely end up on the waiver wire.

Deal Of Note

Jimmy Rollins unquestionably belongs on the Phillies’ list of all-time greats after racking up over forty five wins above replacement and an MVP award in 14 seasons with the club. Over his tenure, he compiled a .267/.327/.424 slash with 216 home runs and 453 stolen bases, adding value with his glove all the while.

Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that Rollins will ultimately deserve a place in Cooperstown. He ranks among good company statistically: 20th lifetime in fWAR for a shortstop, nestled amongst several Hall of Famers. A few more quality seasons could put Rollins over the top. Barring a future reunion, however, he’ll make that run wearing another team’s uniform.

Trading a player of that magnitude is never easy, particularly when you have to eat some salary and do not receive a projected impact player in return. While it obviously made sense in theory for the Phillies to cash in a veteran asset, there is some potential for regret here. For one thing, the club still has some ways to go before handing the position over to the heir apparent (Crawford), who must still prove himself in the upper minors and the bigs. For another, any mid-season shortstop needs that arise around the league could look like missed opportunities to have extracted more value.

Ultimately, while Amaro has been panned for his supposed unwillingness to take a fair price for Hamels, his commitment to breaking up the team cannot really be questioned after the Rollins deal.

Overview

The Phillies got started on a future plan this winter, even if it came one year too late. It’s still fairly early in the process, and the near-term looks rather bleak, but it should be recalled that Philadelphia’s rebuilding project will benefit from the team’s substantial spending capacity. That will not only open opportunities to acquire high-level young talent, but should enable the team to ramp up quickly when it sees the light at the end of the tunnel.

Amaro’s decision to exercise patience in moving veteran assets has drawn a good bit of ire, as has become common for most any moves he makes. But the fact is that Philadelphia is not only well-suited to carry large financial obligations while it searches for fair value, but also is likely unwilling to completely gut its big league roster — and risk even greater attendance decline — just to be rid of its most recognizable players. While a spring deal or two remains possible, it could be that the team will wait until the trade deadline, if not beyond, to send out a few more big contracts.

Of course, trades are not the only way to add young talent, and neither is the annual amateur draft. It is at least somewhat notable, then, that the Phillies did not end up landing any of the top international players this offseason, despite the fact that the international market arguably represents the best chance for large-market clubs to gain an edge in the acquisition of young talent. The club was said to be the top pursuer of Yasmany Tomas, but ultimately backed off — perhaps because Gillick was not on board with that signing. Likewise, Philadelphia had at least some interest in Yoan Moncada, but never seemingly entered the bidding picture. Neither was the team one of those that busted its international bonus pool allocations by signing July 2 prospects or other recent Cuban defectors. Amaro has said that he intends to be “very aggressive” in the international arena, and it could still be that the club is set to do just that — while several other big-spending clubs serve out two-year periods of strictly limited international spending.

All in all, it is far too early to judge the organization’s still-fledgling efforts to chart a new course. There is little doubt, particularly in retrospect, that it waited too long to shift its gaze to the horizon — and paid for that by losing the chance of cashing in on Lee. But money talks in baseball, as elsewhere, and Philadelphia still has plenty in its war chest: having opened last year with nearly $180MM in payroll, the club has just $76MM committed for 2016, $34MM on the books for 2017, and only $23.5MM promised beyond that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

By charliewilmoth | March 21, 2015 at 7:00pm CDT

The Cardinals only made one big move this offseason, but it was a big one indeed, and they’re again in strong position to contend despite an offseason touched by tragedy.

Major League Signings

Matt Belisle, RP: One year, $3.5MM plus up to $500K in incentives
Mark Reynolds, 1B: One year, $2MM plus up to $800K in incentives
Dean Anna, IF: Cost unknown
Total spend: ~$6MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired OF Jason Heyward and RP Jordan Walden from Braves for P Shelby Miller and P Tyrell Jenkins
Acquired C Michael Ohlman from Orioles for cash
Acquired 2B Ty Kelly from Mariners for P Sam Gaviglio

Extensions

Lance Lynn, SP: Three years, $22MM (with incentives for playing time that can push the deal to $23.5MM)
Jordan Walden, RP: Two years, $6.6MM plus 2017 option
Jon Jay, CF: Two years, $10.975MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Carlos Villanueva

Notable Losses

Oscar Taveras, Miller, Pat Neshek, Justin Masterson, Jason Motte, A.J. Pierzynski, Daniel Descalso, Mark Ellis

Needs Addressed

The Cardinals’ offseason began in the worst way imaginable, as outfielder Oscar Taveras, a 22-year-old potential star, passed away along with his girlfriend Edilia Arvelo in a car accident in the Dominican. The tragedy shook not only the Cardinals organization but the entire sport, which lost one of its brighter young talents.

Following Taveras’ death, the Cardinals made one dramatic move to replace him in right field, then had an otherwise quiet offseason. That dramatic move came in mid-November, when they shipped Shelby Miller and pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins to Atlanta for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden.

The Cardinals paid heavily, giving up four years of control for Miller and six of Jenkins in order to get one year of Heyward and two of Walden. (The Cardinals added an extra year of control for Walden when they signed him to a two-year deal with an option in December.) The key to the trade, however, might be that the Cardinals know their pitchers better than anyone else does. Miller is only 24 and still has an electric arm, but his strikeout rate per nine innings alarmingly declined from 8.8 in 2013 to 6.3 last year, and his walk rate rose as well. Miller basically has two pitches (he threw his changeup just 2.4% of the time last year), and his curveball declined in velocity last year, becoming much more hittable in the process. Miller improved down the stretch and is clearly a big-league starter going forward, but if the Cardinals felt comfortable selling low on a pitcher who once looked like an emerging ace, they might well have good reasons.

Jenkins, meanwhile, is still 22 and has twice been rated in Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list, but his performance record doesn’t yet match his reputation, and he missed chunks of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with a shoulder injury. He did pitch well in the Arizona Fall League after the trade, and like Miller, he has a terrific fastball. But he’s still at least a year from the Majors and represents plenty of risk.

Getting a prime season of Heyward in the deal was a coup for the Cardinals, much more so if they can extend him before he becomes a free agent after the season. Heyward is still only 25 and is an elite defensive corner outfielder and a reliable on-base threat. And given his off-the-charts tools and athleticism, he probably still has untapped upside, perhaps a lot of it. He already posted 5.1 fWAR last year while hitting a relatively meager .271/.351/.384; if he can return to, say, his 2012 total of 27 home runs, his $7.8MM salary will make him among the best values in the big leagues.

Walden is no mere throw-in. He dramatically improved his ground ball rate last year, although possibly at the expense of his walk rate. Either way, his blazing fastball should help him strike out more than enough batters to be a successful setup man. Walden’s extension, too, was a smart move, though a small one, for the Cardinals. Between his $2.5MM 2015 salary and his $350K signing bonus, the Cards will pay Walden less in 2015 than the $3MM MLBTR projected, and Walden’s $3.5MM 2016 salary is far less than Cardinals would have had to pay through the arbitration process if he had had a good 2015 season. The Cardinals also got the rights to a reasonable $5.2MM option (or a $250K buyout) for 2017.

Beyond that, the Cardinals didn’t have many holes, and thus had few excuses to spend. The Cards added Matt Belisle to their bullpen after he spent six years in the Rockies organization. Belisle is coming off his worst year in Colorado, posting a 4.87 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 2014, but he posted solid peripherals in four straight seasons before that. The Cardinals won’t have to depend on him to pitch high-leverage innings, and if he doesn’t pitch well, he won’t have cost them much.

They also signed corner infielder and strikeout king Mark Reynolds to a cheap one-year deal. Incumbent first baseman Matt Adams has a career .553 OPS against lefties, and allowing Reynolds to smash southpaws while sitting against righties should enable the Cardinals to get the most bang for their buck. Reynolds himself had a .573 OPS against lefties last season, but an .809 OPS against them for his career. And while he’s had a reputation as a marginal talent for several years now (failing to top a .221 batting average in five straight seasons will do that), he’s never been used as a part-timer, exactly — the Brewers gave him 433 plate appearances last year, his lowest total since he was a rookie. Giving him about 250 plate appearances, most of them against lefties, seems like a good way to harness his power, which remains formidable.

Finally, in addition to the aforementioned Walden contract, the Cardinals signed starter Lance Lynn and center fielder Jon Jay to fairly straightforward extensions that buy out arbitration seasons. Lynn’s $22MM deal buys out all three of what would have been his arbitration years. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz guessed that Lynn would have made something like $4.5MM for 2015, so it isn’t hard to see how Lynn might have reached or topped $22MM in three years total. At the same time, Lynn received a hefty chunk of guaranteed money and didn’t delay his free-agency eligibility.

Jay’s deal is even simpler. He had already been through arbitration once, and he and the Cardinals had already exchanged figures for this offseason, with a midpoint of $4.55MM. The extension essentially merely guarantees him a modest raise for 2016 — slightly smaller than the one he would have received had he gone year-to-year, but that’s to be expected given that the Cardinals agreed to pay his salary for both years up front. That point might seem significant to a player who briefly lost his everyday job to Peter Bourjos last year, although perhaps it shouldn’t be. Jay is, at this point, probably slightly undervalued. Particularly in the 2013 season, Jay developed a reputation for being defensively erratic. For his career, though, that’s not the story the numbers tell, and his OBP-heavy offensive game is consistently strong.

Questions Remaining

Not many. The Cardinals remain a strong team from top to bottom, and attempts to find their weaknesses mostly amount to nit-picking. The team’s fifth starter job is currently unsettled, although Marco Gonzales, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia all have upside. (The Cardinals might be leaning toward Garcia despite his long history of arm issues, since they can most easily keep all three pitchers in the organization by sending Gonzales back to the minors and Martinez to a relief role.) The Cards’ bullpen isn’t outstanding behind Trevor Rosenthal, particularly given the loss of Pat Neshek, but the additions of Walden, Belisle and minor-league signee Carlos Villanueva could all help, and hard-throwing rookie Sam Tuivailala could be a wild card. Also, Martinez would help the Cards’ bullpen depth tremendously if he were to lose out on the rotation job.

Beyond that, the questions, such as they are, are broader. The Cardinals’ core is good, but much of it is somewhat old. The Cards will lean on a great catcher (Yadier Molina) who will be 33 in July, a very good shortstop (Jhonny Peralta) who will be 33 in May, a great 33-year-old starting pitcher (Adam Wainwright), and good players in Matt Holliday and John Lackey who are even older. There are certainly scenarios in which several of those players falter at once this season, and the Cardinals are far worse than expected. The Cardinals’ depth behind Molina is one weakness that could become a problem if he gets hurt, as he did last year when he missed several weeks with a thumb injury. A minor deal with the Orioles for catcher Michael Ohlman might not help much, either, at least not right away, since Ohlman hit sparingly even at Double-A last year.

Deal Of Note

Last year, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined the sorts of minor-league free agents teams typically sign to big-league deals. Such players are typically around 27 when they sign, and within that context, the Cardinals’ signing of 28-year-old infielder Dean Anna to a big-league deal fits right in. Typically, though, players who receive such deals are former top prospects or hard throwers. Anna, in contrast, is a former 26th-round pick who had to scrap for playing time even in the low minors. He’s also coming off a .207/.325/.308 season at the Triple-A level, making him an even more unlikely candidate for a big-league deal.

What Anna does have is versatility (he can handle shortstop, second and third, making him a legitimate utility infielder) and on-base ability. Anna posted a .410 OBP at Triple-A Tucson in 2013 and has a .380 career minor-league OBP. Aside from a handful of games with the Yankees last season, Anna has no big-league track record, so the Cardinals’ Major-League deal amounts to a relatively cheap gamble that Anna’s minor-league track record can translate to the Majors. They can control him for up to five more years after this one if it does.

At this point, though, it’s not even guaranteed that he’ll make the team, as he’s played sparingly in Spring Training. Another unproven infielder acquired in a relatively low-profile deal, Ty Kelly, has impressed observers. Like Anna, Kelly has a great track record of providing OBP in the high minors, although Kelly doesn’t play shortstop, instead spending most of his time at second and third and in the outfield corners.

In any case, if Anna doesn’t make the squad, he could end up providing good depth at Triple-A. He might prove to be valuable if Peralta gets hurt or second baseman Kolten Wong doesn’t maintain the improvements he made in 2014.

Overview

Despite an aging group of core players, the Cardinals have an enviable blend of veterans, good players in their primes (Heyward, Lynn, Matt Carpenter) and youngsters with upside (particularly Michael Wacha and Martinez, but also Wong, Gonzalez, and outfield prospect Stephen Piscotty, who provides a solid Plan B if Holliday is out for an extended period). That diversification of assets should limit their downside — there’s a lot of talent here, and it’s spread fairly around the diamond and across the spectrum of player ages. They’re a bit too heavily weighted toward veteran talent, although that’s not necessarily surprising for a franchise that’s had seven straight winning seasons (and just lost its highest-upside young player in tragic circumstances). And the fact that most of their long-term contracts aren’t backloaded keeps them flexible.

With that in mind, the Cardinals can watch the season unfold, and use the trade market to address any weaknesses that emerge. They can also plan for the future. Lackey and Heyward are eligible for free agency after this season. While an extension for Lackey doesn’t look likely, signing Heyward, already a very good player who still has youth and upside, could become a priority. If Heyward departs, the Cardinals will likely have the flexibility to make a splash in next offseason’s free-agent market, if they so desire.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By Steve Adams | March 19, 2015 at 3:49pm CDT

The Astros escaped the cellar in the AL West last season, though they did so due largely to a barrage of injuries on what was expected to be a contending Rangers team. Nevertheless, Houston was a much-improved club in 2014, and they’ll likely be even better in 2015 following an active offseason.

Major League Signings

Jed Lowrie, SS: Three years, $23MM
Luke Gregerson, RHP: Three years, $18.5MM
Pat Neshek, RHP: Two years, $12.5MM
Colby Rasmus, OF: One year, $8MM
Total spend: $62MM

Trades and Claims

Acquired 3B Luis Valbuena and RHP Dan Straily from the Cubs in exchange for OF Dexter Fowler
Acquired C/OF Evan Gattis and RHP James Hoyt from the Braves in exchange for RHP Michael Foltynewicz, 3B Rio Ruiz and RHP Andrew Thurman
Acquired C Hank Conger from the Angels in exchange for RHP Nick Tropeano and C Carlos Perez
Acquired RHP Akeem Bostick from the Rangers in exchange for C Carlos Corporan
Claimed RHP Will Harris off waivers from the Diamondbacks

Extensions

None

Notable Minor League Signings

Roberto Hernandez, Joe Thatcher, Dan Johnson

Notable Losses

Dexter Fowler, Jose Veras, Matt Albers, Mike Foltynewicz, Nick Tropeano, Carlos Corporan, Josh Zeid, Jesse Crain

Needs Addressed

No bullpen in baseball recorded a higher ERA than Houston’s alarming 4.80 mark last season, so it’s hardly a surprise that GM Jeff Luhnow and his staff went hard after relief pitching this winter. The Astros added a pair of right-handed arms in Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. Together, the duo consists of one of the game’s most consistent setup men over the past four years (Gregerson) and an upside play based on a somewhat surprising 2014 breakout (Neshek). Gregerson has made at least 61 appearances and logged an ERA of 2.75 or better in each of the past four seasons, and Neshek improved on solid numbers from 2012-13 to record a 1.87 ERA and a brilliant 7.56 K/BB ratio. The Astros were also reportedly the highest bidder for Andrew Miller at $40MM over four years, but the left-hander took $4MM less to join the Yankees’ bullpen. Instead, the ’Stros eventually landed Joe Thatcher on a minor league deal to give them a potential bargain from the left side. Waiver claim Will Harris and his strong peripherals give them a promising candidate from the right side.

Though there are quite a few names in that last paragraph, that’s only a fraction of the pitchers that were contacted by the Astros this offseason. Houston was said to have at least some dialogue with nearly every notable relief arm on the market at some point, even entering the mix for David Robertson before he landed with the White Sox.

Turning to the infield, there was a clear need on the left side. Jonathan Villar broke camp as the team’s shortstop in 2014, but his .209/.267/.354 batting line led him back to Triple-A and resulted in Marwin Gonzalez and Gregorio Petit receiving playing time at shortstop as well. Whether the Astros were underwhelmed by the play of that trio or simply considered Jed Lowrie too good a value to pass up, the team struck a three-year deal to bring Lowrie back to Houston after a pair of seasons in Oakland. Lowrie will now join a lineup that features Chris Carter — one of the very men for whom he was traded in that Houston/Oakland swap (Brad Peacock and Max Stassi were also in the deal). Lowrie’s defense isn’t great, and he struggled with the bat in 2014, but he’s typically been an above-average hitter when healthy. At just over $7MM annually, the price seems plenty reasonable, even if he’ll eventually have to shift positions if and when Carlos Correa is ready for the Majors (perhaps as soon as 2016).

Third base was a black hole for the 2014 Astros, as Matt Dominguez and Petit saw all of the time at the position and combined to hit a miserable .212/.255/.321. The Astros were clearly aware of this fact and not necessarily keen on giving Dominguez another crack, as the team acquired Luis Valbuena in the Dexter Fowler trade with the Cubs. Valbuena can play second or third, but with Jose Altuve entrenched at the keystone, Valbuena seems destined for third base duty, pushing Dominguez to a bench role or possibly making him trade bait (he’s still just 25).

The Fowler trade filled one hole but potentially created another, thinning out the club’s outfield depth. However, the Astros likely viewed that move as an opportunity to acquire a commodity where the demand outweighed the supply — the free agent third base market offered little — in exchange for a commodity whose supply outweighed their own demand. Houston signed Colby Rasmus just days after trading Valbuena, likely indicating that they feel Rasmus can provide similar value to Fowler at a cheaper price ($8MM), whereas there were no suitable free agent options to fill their void at the hot corner.

Valbuena wasn’t the only piece they added in that deal, though. Dan Straily’s inclusion in the trade gives the Astros some rotation depth and a relatively young arm with huge minor league strikeout numbers that could push for a rotation spot as early as this season. The team added further depth in the rotation when it signed Roberto Hernandez to a minor league deal with a semi-steep base salary (at least for a minor league deal) of $2.65MM.

Some additional rotation depth was necessary, as the team had flipped Nick Tropeano for the defensively gifted Hank Conger. They’d also eventually deal well-regarded pitching prospect Mike Foltynewicz and righty Andrew Thurman in a trade to land Evan Gattis from Atlanta. Conger gives the Astros an upgrade from a defensive standpoint, while Gattis provides an emergency option at catcher plus depth in left field, at first base and at DH. In Gattis, Springer and Chris Carter, the Astros have a trio of right-handed sluggers that could mash 30 homers apiece in the middle of their lineup. That power is especially dangerous in Houston, given the 315-foot short porch down the left field line at Minute Maid Park.

Questions Remaining

The Astros enjoyed two of baseball’s most unexpected breakouts in their rotation last season, as both Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh pitched at All-Star caliber levels and now look like vital (and controllable) rotation cogs going forward. They’ll be joined by veteran Scott Feldman, who can soak up some solid innings in the middle of the rotation. Beyond that, however, the picture is muddled. Peacock won’t be ready to start the season (not that he’d have been guaranteed a spot anyhow), leaving the remaining two spots to be divided between Brett Oberholtzer, Sam Deduno, Hernandez and Straily.

It’s understandable, then, that the team tried to bring Ryan Vogelsong in for some stabilization, but the deal between the two sides fell through after Vogelsong took a physical. Vogelsong expressed some distaste for the Astros organization after the fact, and reports since then have indicated that the team lowered their offer after seeing red flags in his exam. Vogelsong would ultimately return to the Giants to serve as a long reliever, perhaps indicating that his medicals did indeed pose some cause for concern.

The remade bullpen now looks stronger with Gregerson and Neshek joining Chad Qualls atop the depth chart, but there’s still a good deal of uncertainty beyond that grouping and lefty Tony Sipp. In particular, the team lacks a solidified second left-handed option, although a return to form for Thatcher would put that concern to rest and make his signing look like a shrewd move. Hernandez or Deduno could serve as a long man if they don’t make the rotation, but the Astros seem likely to have two right-handed slots filled by a combination of unproven arms such as Josh Fields, Jake Buchanan, Will Harris and perhaps non-roster invitee James Hoyt. It should be noted that both Harris and Fields possess highly favorable peripheral stats, so a breakout for either wouldn’t come as a significant surprise. Nonetheless, neither has established himself as a reliable bullpen arm in the Majors to this point.

While the Astros are rife with raw power up and down their lineup, they’ll likely fall victim to strikeouts at one of the highest rates in baseball. Only the Cubs’ 24.2 percent team strikeout rate was worse than Houston’s 23.8 percent mark last season, and they’ve compounded the problem by trading for Gattis and swapping Fowler (21.4 percent strikeout rate in 2014) for Rasmus (33 percent). Valbuena and Dominguez, for those wondering, struck out at nearly identical respective clips of 20.7 and 20.6 percent last year.

So, while Houston will have its share of high-scoring games due to its powerful lineup, the combination of Rasmus, Carter, Springer, Gattis, Jason Castro and possibly Jon Singleton could lead to quite a few unsightly days at the plate — particularly against elite strikeout pitchers.

The defense, to some extent, could also be an issue. Lowrie isn’t a gifted defender at shortstop, and while Rasmus has had defensive value in the past, he was well below-average in 2014. Perhaps better health will remedy that, but until it’s demonstrated on the field, one can’t help but wonder. The main reason that Atlanta was so willing to part with Gattis was that they feel he’ll eventually be unable to continue catching due to his size and is also a terrible outfield defender. In Houston, the catching will be handled by Castro and Conger, leaving Gattis without much of a position and leaving the team with a potential dilemma at first base/DH if Singleton, Gattis and Carter are all healthy and productive by the end of Spring Training. Gattis could play left field, but that would negate a good deal of his offensive value. Playing Rasmus and Marisnick in left and center would be a significant defensive upgrade.

Still, that would create a logjam at first base/DH, which is likely the reason that ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears that teams in need of offense are monitoring the Astros; Stark reported this week that Carter could become available should Singleton win the job at first and Gattis remains healthy.

Deal of Note

Neshek’s contract with the Astros would’ve seemed borderline unthinkable a year ago at this time, as the submariner was in Spring Training on a minor league deal with the Cardinals. His incredible 1.87 ERA and 7.56 K/BB ratio in last year’s All-Star campaign was an excellent story and led to the first multi-year deal of his career.

While we don’t know exactly what Rafael Soriano will sign for this offseason, he seems extremely likely to fall shy of Neshek’s deal. Meanwhile, an established closer like Francisco Rodriguez barely topped Neshek’s guarantee despite having an extra year on his contract and being two years younger. Neshek also topped Jason Grilli and stacked up favorably with fellow Meister Sports Management client Sergio Romo, despite Romo’s stronger track record.

The Neshek contract this offseason serves as a reminder to fans who may have rolled their eyes at minor league deals for unheralded players this past offseason; these deals rarely turn out like Neshek’s, but a select few seem to go this way each offseason, and the success experienced can lead to tremendous rewards for the team in 2015 and the player the following winter.

Overview

The Astros come away from the 2014-15 offseason with a remade bullpen and an improved left side of the infield, both of which should help to repair two of the team’s biggest flaws from the 2014 season. While the rotation looks to be a question mark still, it’s not out of the question that top prospect and former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel could surface in the Majors and help solidify that group. Appel looked lost for much of 2014, but rumors of his demise were tremendously overstated, as he left a dismal Class-A stint behind him to post a 3.69 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 39 Double-A innings. Appel ranks 35th or better on the Top 100 prospect lists of Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, MLB.com and Fangraphs, where he peaked at No. 18.

Owner Jim Crane has expressed the ambitious goal of reaching the playoffs this season, and while many skeptics will scoff at the notion, the Astros have a wealth of interesting young players in addition to several offseason pickups that could help them remain competitive in the AL West. While they’re certainly not a favorite to do so, some combination of sustained success from Keuchel and McHugh plus steps forward from Springer and Singleton, along with rebounds from Castro, Lowrie and Rasmus, could make the club more dangerous than most are willing to expect.

The Astros made a 19-game improvement from 2013 to 2014, and they could take a step forward toward the .500 mark in 2015 if everyone stays healthy. By 2016, enough members of the team’s vaunted farm system — including Correa, Appel, Springer and Singleton — may have graduated to the Major League level that the Astros could make a push toward a playoff spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

By Steve Adams | March 17, 2015 at 3:56pm CDT

The Twins have spent four years in the cellar of the AL Central, but they’ve begun to spend on free agents in the past two offseasons in anticipation of the arrival of some of the game’s most highly touted prospects.

Major League Signings

Ervin Santana, SP: Four years, $54MM
Torii Hunter, OF: One year, $10.5MM
Tim Stauffer, SP/RP: One year, $2.2MM
Total spend: $66.7MM

Trades and Claims

None

Extensions

Phil Hughes, SP: Three years, $42MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Blaine Boyer, Brayan Villarreal, Wil Ledezma, Brock Peterson, Wilkin Ramirez

Notable Losses

Jared Burton, Anthony Swarzak, Chris Colabello, Chris Parmelee

Needs Addressed

The Twins finished seventh in the Majors in runs scored last season and batted a combined .254/.324/.389, making them one of 10 teams in baseball to outproduce the production of a league-average hitter, per Fangraphs’ wRC+ metric (102). However, while scoring runs wasn’t a problem for Minnesota, preventing them certainly was, as their pitching and defense were each among the league’s worst.

The Twins explored multiple options on the starting pitching market this offseason before eventually agreeing to a four-year, $54MM contract with Ervin Santana. Minnesota had interest in Santana last year in Spring Training, so it wasn’t a shock to see them pursue the righty again. Santana should provide the team with 200-ish league-average or slightly better innings — something it has been lacking in recent years. That’s much the same role that Ricky Nolasco was supposed to fill when he was signed prior to 2014, but Santana has a superior track record and has already demonstrated recent success in the American League.

Though the Twins have a number of outfield prospects rising through the system, none are quite ready to make the leap to the Majors just yet. Understandably then, they sought to find a stopgap, and the Twins made a sentimental play to bring back franchise favorite Torii Hunter on a one-year deal. The 39-year-old Hunter was the Twins’ first-round pick back in the 1993 draft, and he emerged as a star and a core player for the Twins in the mid-2000s as the team perennially contended for the AL Central crown. Hunter can still hit — .286/.319/.446 last year — but his defense has deteriorated significantly. Though he’s on a one-year deal, he’s expressed an openness to returning beyond this season if he’s still productive. With top prospect Byron Buxton fast approaching the Majors alongside other well-regarded prospects like Eddie Rosario, I would think that Hunter may have to accept a reduced role, perhaps as soon as 2016, in order for that to occur.

The Twins also quietly added Tim Stauffer on a one-year deal with a reasonable $2.2MM base salary. He’ll compete for a spot in the rotation, but the likelier outcome is that Stauffer will end up in the bullpen to pick up some of the innings that Jared Burton, now with the Yankees, had accounted for in previous seasons. (The Twins elected to buy out Burton’s $3.6MM option rather than retain him.)

For a team that finished in last place once again, this is a relatively brief “Needs Addressed” section, but the Twins will likely be counting on their farm system to fill in many of the holes around the roster. Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Josmil Pinto, Trevor May and Alex Meyer are all eventually to contribute in varying capacities this season. Top prospects Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios could also debut in 2015 as well.

Questions Remaining

The Twins have spent aggressively on the starting pitching market over the past two offseasons, giving a combined $138MM to Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Hughes and now Santana. While they struck gold on Hughes, who set the Major League record for single-season K/BB ratio last year (11.63) and parlayed that into a three-year, $42MM extension, Nolasco and Pelfrey contributed nothing in 2014. It remains to be seen whether Santana will live up to his deal, but certainly given the expenditure they’ve put forth, one would hope their rotation would have a better outlook. As it is, however, Hughes, Santana and former first-round pick Kyle Gibson will likely be joined by Nolasco and one of Pelfrey, Tommy Milone, Alex Meyer or Trevor May in the fifth slot. While there’s some depth there and Meyer has top-of-the-rotation upside, the unit as a whole looks underwhelming.

As I opined in my Offseason Outlook for the Twins, perhaps the best way to help the pitching may have been to improve an outfield defense that ranked as one of the worst in baseball last season (-36.2 UZR, -50 Defensive Runs Saved). Someone such as Peter Bourjos or Craig Gentry, for instance, could have had their relatively light bat hidden in an otherwise-serviceable lineup while drastically improving the defense. The Twins went another route by bringing back Hunter, who, as mentioned before, has plenty of life in his bat but has seen his once-sterling defensive reputation tarnished with age. Hunter was worth -18 runs per both UZR and DRS last season, so the Twins will again employ a pair of range-challenged corner outfielders in Hunter and Arcia, who will shift to left field with Hunter taking right.

Between them will likely be Aaron Hicks, a former first-round pick and Top 30 prospect that has yet to pan out at the plate or in the field. Though Hicks possesses an incredible throwing arm and is fleet of foot, poor route-running has led to sub-par defensive marks in center field. This will be the now-25-year-old Hicks’ third crack at establishing himself after originally skipping Triple-A to open the 2013 season as the team’s center fielder. He’s batted just .201/.293/.313 in 150 big league games. Hicks could be pushed for playing time by Jordan Schafer, who impressed the Twins after being claimed on waivers last year. Schafer is a lock to make the team either as a fourth outfielder or in a more regular role, but he, too, is a former top prospect that has never realized his offensive potential.

The Twins’ bullpen will be anchored by Minnesota native Glen Perkins, though the 32-year-old ended last season with a minor elbow issue that caused his ERA to balloon in the final month. That’s cleared up now, but he’s been battling an oblique problem in Spring Training as well. It seems minor enough, but the Twins’ bullpen group is thin on established arms. Casey Fien has been nothing short of brilliant in the first half of each of the past two seasons before wilting in each second half, but he’ll be the primary setup man. I’d imagine that Stauffer will take one bullpen slot, and Brian Duensing, who had struck me as a non-tender candidate, will be back in the fold from the left side. If manager Paul Molitor deploys him primarily against southpaws, he should be effective. Pelfrey seems likely to end up in the bullpen as well if he doesn’t win the final rotation spot.

Beyond that mix, names like Michael Tonkin, Caleb Thielbar, Ryan Pressly, Aaron Thompson, A.J. Achter, Logan Darnell and Lester Oliveros will get looks. Non-roster invitee Blaine Boyer would seem to have a good chance as well following a nice comeback effort with the Padres last year. Still, it’s a thin group, and with Perkins ailing somewhat, I wouldn’t be surprised if Scott Boras were trying to sell GM Terry Ryan on Rafael Soriano to come in and solidify the bunch.

For all of the questions elsewhere on the roster, the infield is relatively set. The Twins will hope that better health means a rebound to some degree for Joe Mauer. Brian Dozier emerged as the team’s regular second baseman over the past two seasons and may yet land a long-term deal this spring. Danny Santana had an excellent rookie season playing mostly center field, but he’ll be back at his natural shortstop in 2015. He won’t repeat his preposterous .405 BABIP, but his strong line-drive rate and speed do suggest that he can maintain a mark well above the league average in that regard. Trevor Plouffe continues to see year-to-year improvement and was quietly worth 3.5 fWAR/4.0 rWAR last season. Still, he may be a placeholder until Sano’s massive bat surfaces in the Majors.

Kurt Suzuki signed a two-year, $12MM extension last summer, but as a slow-footed catcher, his .310 BABIP will be tough to repeat, so he may see some regression at the plate. If Pinto hits like he did in 2013 rather than in 2014, the two may eventually flip. Vargas will be the team’s everyday DH after an impressive .274/.316/.456 debut, but he’ll need to refine his approach and improve his abysmal 63-to-12 (5.25) K/BB ratio.

The biggest question surrounding the Twins may simply be if/when Buxton, Sano, Meyer and possibly Berrios arrive in 2015. That group of lauded top prospects is widely believed to be a quartet of potential core players, and Twins fans have long been awaiting their arrival.

Deal of Note

Though the Twins were willing to give Santana three years and $30-33MM this time last year, Santana preferred to bet on himself and take a one-year deal in the NL with the hope of securing a better deal a second time around. (Had he taken the Twins’ offer, he’d have essentially given away the 2015-16 seasons for $16-19MM total.) The Twins reeled him in this time around, however they did so by offering an extra year and another $20MM or so despite the fact that Santana is now a year older.

Santana was often used as an example of why players should accept qualifying offers throughout the 2014 season, but this contract shows that the more likely culprit in his 2013-14 offseason woes was an unreasonable asking price. It’s worth noting that he’ll come away with a combined $68.1MM over his age-31 to age-35 seasons, so he ultimately did well despite having to take a one-year deal in his first foray into free agency.

The greater note, however, is that the signing signals that the Twins do believe they can compete within their division this season. Next year’s market features a wealth of starting pitching options, so it would have made some sense for the Twins to lay low this winter and pounce in six months’ time, adding a premium starter rather than a middle-of-the-road arm to complement a young core that is transitioning to the Majors. Minnesota may still play in free agency next year, depending on how things pan out with Gibson, Nolasco, Milone, Meyer, Berrios and May, but Ryan has said that the Santana signing was made to compete in 2015.

Additionally, it has to be pointed out that the Twins surrendered a high second-round pick (their first-rounder is protected) in order to land Santana. The No. 47 overall pick in last year’s draft was worth $1.188MM, and it could be worth around $1.29MM in the coming draft. That’s a significant amount of bonus money, which might have been used to add to an already excellent farm system.

Overview

The Twins seem likely to be a better club than they were in 2014. The addition of Santana will improve what was, but may still be, a below-average pitching staff. For Minnesota, the 2015 season will be expected to be one in which a corner is turned; looking around the lineup, three spots — shortstop, left field and DH — will be occupied by top organizational prospects that have graduated to the Majors and already begun to realize some of their potential. In the rotation, Gibson will be asked to take a step forward, and the Twins can only hope for some degree of breakout from Hicks in center field. If he’s not able to contribute, he may not factor into their plans much longer, with outfielders Buxton, Arcia and Eddie Rosario presenting a possible trio to build upon.

Reinforcements will be on the way throughout the season, but it still seems a stretch to peg this team as a wild card or division contender. Stranger things have happened, and the talent is there if some prospects make a greater-than-expected impact, but 2016-17 seems like a more realistic timeframe for the Twins to again find themselves in a playoff hunt.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

By Mark Polishuk | March 17, 2015 at 8:29am CDT

The World Series winners brought back some familiar faces from their latest championship team, yet they’ll have to account for a Panda-sized hole in their lineup.

Major League Signings

Jake Peavy, SP: Two years, $24MM
Sergio Romo, RP: Two years, $15MM
Nori Aoki, OF: One year, $4MM ($5.5MM club option for 2016 with $700K buyout; option becomes mutual with 550 plate appearances)
Ryan Vogelsong, SP: One year, $4MM
Total spend: $47.7MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Alfredo Aceves, Travis Blackley, John Bowker, Ronny Cedeno, Robert Coello, Edgmer Escalona, Cory Gearrin, Juan Gutierrez, Brandon Hicks, Justin Maxwell, Curtis Partch, Guillermo Quiroz, Clay Rapada, Carlos Triunfel

Trades And Claims

Acquired 3B Casey McGehee from Marlins for SP Kendry Flores and RP Luis Castillo

Extensions

Gregor Blanco, OF: Two years, $7.5MM

Notable Losses

Pablo Sandoval, Mike Morse, Marco Scutaro, Chris Dominguez

Needs Addressed

With five key members (two position players and three pitchers) of last year’s roster facing free agency, the Giants brought back all three of the arms. Madison Bumgarner, Tim Hudson and a hopefully-healthy Matt Cain will be joined in the rotation by the re-signed Jake Peavy. Ryan Vogelsong seemed to be on the verge of going to the Astros, but after a bit of controversy scuttled that deal, he ended up re-signing with the Giants. Vogelsong is currently slated to fill a long relief role but he (or Yusmeiro Petit) could be elevated to the fifth starter’s role if Tim Lincecum’s struggles continue.

After receiving some interest from the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox, Sergio Romo instead returned to San Francisco on a two-year, $15MM deal. The veteran relief trio of Javier Lopez (37 years old), Santiago Casilla (34) and Romo (32) have played major roles in the Giants’ three World Series titles since 2010, and they’ll continue to hold down the back of the bullpen.

The Giants will miss Mike Morse’s .279/.336/.475 batting line (133 wRC+, or 33 percent better than the league-average hitter) and 16 homers, yet in replacing him in left field with free agent signing Nori Aoki may be an overall upgrade. While Aoki posted only a 104 wRC+ and obviously fell far short of Morse in the power department, he generated 2.3 fWAR to Morse’s 1.0 fWAR last season due to a big edge in defense and baserunning, as well as a better batting average and OBP. Aoki’s skill-set makes him a good fit for AT&T Park, and his defensive versatility may already have come in handy for the Giants; Aoki may be a short-term replacement in right field while Hunter Pence is on the DL.

Sabermetrically speaking, the gap between Pablo Sandoval and the newly-acquired Casey McGehee was closer than you might expect at first glance. Sandoval posted a .279/.324/.415 slash line, 16 homers, a 111 wRC+ and .323 wOBA over 638 PA last season and generated 3.0 fWAR. In his return to North American baseball after spending 2013 in Japan, McGehee hit .287/.355/.357 with four homers over 691 PA, good for a 102 wRC+, .319 wOBA and 2.0 fWAR. Since McGehee will earn $4.8MM in 2015 as compared to Sandoval’s $17MM salary from the Red Sox, the Giants will be overjoyed if there’s only a one-win gap between the two third basemen next year.

Questions Remaining

While the Giants brought the band back together pitching-wise, Bumgarner’s postseason dominance obscured the fact that the club actually didn’t get much from its rotation in 2014. San Francisco starters generated only 8.2 fWAR last season, the third-lowest total in baseball. While this number should rise with Cain’s return and a full season from Peavy, there is still plenty of uncertainty given Cain’s health, the fifth starter spot and the 39-year-old Hudson’s fade down the stretch last year. Hudson’s health isn’t a 100 percent guarantee, either, as the veteran righty underwent January surgery to remove bone spurs from his ankle. Though he’s expected to be ready for Opening Day, the aftereffects of that operation are yet undetermined.

With questions surrounding their rotation, the Giants checked in on several top free agent pitchers this offseason. They were serious suitors for both Jon Lester and James Shields (though their four-year, $80MM offer to Shields was reportedly taken off the table once they signed Peavy), and they at least considered the likes of Max Scherzer, Francisco Liriano and Ervin Santana. I would guess that if the Giants are still in the race by midseason but have one or two pitchers struggling, they’d be prime candidates to pick up a top-tier arm at the trade deadline.

It seemed that “close-but-no-cigar” was the theme of the Giants’ offseason, as they explored what would’ve been very notable trades and signings for the likes of Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton, Torii Hunter, Ben Zobrist, Chris Johnson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Chase Headley, Jed Lowrie, Nick Markakis, and some of Boston’s extra outfielders. They also fell short in the bidding for Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, who could’ve helped the club in either left or third. Timing seemed to be an issue on some of these non-moves; with the Giants not knowing until the Winter Meetings if they would land Lester, they couldn’t make other commitments until they knew if they’d need the $140-150MM they had earmarked for the ace southpaw.

The Giants also made a strong push to re-sign Sandoval, though the Panda had reportedly made up his mind to leave San Francisco before last season even began. (His postseason hitting display was quite the parting gift.) McGehee’s 2014 stats were boosted by a .335 BABIP, and given Sandoval’s clear edge in career hitting totals, McGehee will likely fall well short of matching Sandoval’s production. Given how the Giants looked elsewhere for third basemen this winter, McGehee might just be a one-year stopgap until they can find a more long-term answer at the hot corner.

Losing Sandoval and Morse will damage a Giants’ lineup that posted middle-of-the-pack numbers in most offensive categories last year. Missing Pence for potentially all of April certainly won’t help in the team’s search for more runs. On the flip side, the lineup should get a bit of a power boost with Brandon Belt healthy again after an injury-plagued 2014.

Romo actually posted a negative fWAR (-0.3) last season, largely due to career highs in both FIP (3.94) and HR/9 (1.4). He lost the closer’s job partway through the season but rebounded enough that he earned a share of the closing duties with Casilla, though it was Casilla who received all four save opportunities during the playoffs. As a result, Casilla will be the Giants’ closer going into Spring Training.

With this in mind, guaranteeing $15MM to a 32-year-old setup man coming off his worst statistical season was something of a risky move. San Francisco already had a pretty strong bullpen without Romo, and with Vogelsong/Petit (or maybe Lincecum) added in a swingman or long relief role, a case could be made that the Giants could’ve let Romo go and spent that $15MM elsewhere. Romo does provide depth for Casilla, who’s a non-traditional closer, but the Giants are investing a lot in the hope that Romo’s poor first half was just an aberration.

Deal Of Note

While the Giants couldn’t land a frontline ace like Lester or Shields, they did sign a guy who pitched like an ace while in a Giants uniform. Peavy posted a 2.17 ERA, 3.41 K/BB rate and 6.6 K/9 in 78 2/3 innings after his late-July trade from Boston to San Francisco, though his peripherals (3.03 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 3.91 SIERA) indicate that he enjoyed some good fortune ERA-wise.

A 2.17 ERA over a full season probably isn’t in the cards, yet Peavy should provide the team with quality innings and a solid return on their two-year, $24MM investment. As Peavy himself hinted while speaking with reporters (including MLBTR’s Zach Links) after his signing, he may have taken less money than he could’ve found elsewhere to return to the Giants due to his love of the organization and his desire to win.

Overview

While the Giants’ projected $170MM payroll for 2015 is one of the game’s highest, it was expected they would spend a little more than $52.7MM (their free agent signings and McGehee’s salary) on players given the extra revenues from their playoff run. It seems like the team expected the same thing given the number of high-salaried targets they pursued but couldn’t land.

Still, a fairly quiet offseason is not a huge cause for alarm. Not spending in winter means that the Giants probably have some cash to spend in June or July. As mentioned earlier, the club could be contenders for pitching upgrades, or potentially could aim for bullpen help or lineup additions should the need arise. The Giants could add short-term rentals, or pursue pricier players who are signed beyond 2015. San Francisco can afford to consider such additions since they’ll have roughly $53MM coming off the books after the season (expiring deals for Lincecum, Hudson, McGehee, Vogelsong, Jeremy Affeldt, Marco Scutaro and Joaquin Arias) and possibly more if club options for Casilla and Aoki aren’t exercised.

For now, however, the Giants should be in pretty good stead given that they’re returning the large majority of a world championship roster. Bruce Bochy will have to work some of his usual creativity to make up for the absences of Sandoval and Morse, and the club will have a tougher road in the NL West with the reloaded Dodgers and the rebuilt Padres both looking like contenders. Still, anyone writing off the 2015 Giants simply due to the “Odd Year Curse” does so at their own peril.

Photo courtesy of Peter Aiken/USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

By Steve Adams | March 13, 2015 at 9:08pm CDT

The Royals snapped a 28-year postseason drought with quite a bit of flair, enjoying a dramatic comeback win over the A’s in the AL Wild Card game. The victory kicked off an eight-game win streak that brought them to the World Series, where they fell just shy of the ultimate prize in a seven-game classic with the Giants. They’ll look to return to the playoffs in 2014, but they’ll do so with a fairly different cast of characters following an active winter.

Major League Signings

Edinson Volquez, SP: Two years, $20MM with a $10MM mutual option ($3MM buyout)
Kendrys Morales, DH: Two years, $17MM with an $11MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Alex Rios, OF: One year, $11MM with a $12.5MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Luke Hochevar, RP: Two years, $10MM
Kris Medlen, SP: Two years, $8.5MM with a $10MM mutual option ($1MM buyout regardless of which side declines)
Jason Frasor, RP: One year, $1.25MM with a $2MM mutual option ($550K buyout)
Chris Young, SP/RP: One year, $675K
Yohan Pino, SP: One year, unknown amount (presumably at or near league minimum)
Total Spend: $68.425MM

Trades and Claims

Acquired LHP Brian Flynn and minor league RHP Reid Redman from the Marlins in exchange for RHP Aaron Crow
Acquired minor league OF Reymond Fuentes from the Padres in exchange for minor league LHP Kyle Bartsch
Acquired INF Ryan Jackson from Dodgers in exchange for cash considerations (Jackson was eventually outrighted to Triple-A Omaha)
Acquired minor league RHP Brian Broderick from the Angels in exchange for 2B Johnny Giavotella

Extensions

Eric Hosmer, 1B: Two years, $13.9MM
Kelvin Herrera, RP: Two years, $4.15MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Joe Paterson, Ryan Roberts, Ryan Madson, Alex Liddi, Roman Colon, Brandon Jacobs, Franklin Morales, Casey Kotchman

Notable Losses

James Shields, Billy Butler, Nori Aoki, Josh Willingham (retired), Brett Hayes

Needs Addressed

The Royals entered the 2014-15 offseason with two key free agents — James Shields and Nori Aoki — and a decision to make on Billy Butler’s $12.5MM option. The decision was made to buy out Butler’s option for $1MM, essentially signaling that the Royals didn’t feel he was worth $11.5MM on a one-year deal. As for Shields and Aoki, both were allowed to test the waters of the free agent market, and both signed in the NL West (San Diego and San Francisco, respectively).

Now with three critical spots to fill — right field, DH and a starting pitcher — the Royals opted to diversify their risk by spreading out their offseason budget over the course of several one- and two-year deals. Mutual options — which are almost never exercised by both parties — were used as an apparent accounting tactic by GM Dayton Moore and his staff, as the team handed out five such options, likely in order to defer some money rather than commit to spending the entire $68MM+ over the next two years. The glut of mutual options comes with $7.55MM worth of buyouts that can obviously be delayed until after the 2016 season, somewhat lessening the immediate financial ramifications of Kansas City’s spending.

Structure wasn’t the only similar thread running throughout Kansas City’s offseason contracts, however. The Royals also employed a similar philosophy with many of these contracts. That is to say, they bought low on a surprising number of players. Kendrys Morales and Alex Rios both performed poorly in 2014, while Kris Medlen and Luke Hochevar didn’t throw so much as a pitch in the Majors due to spring Tommy John surgeries.

A healthy Hochevar would both replace and likely outperform the departed Aaron Crow, if Hochevar is able to pitch anywhere near the level he did in 2013. Jason Frasor’s bullpen spot was filled by none other than Jason Frasor, who re-signed and will again contribute to what should be a very strong relief group.

Volquez was signed to fill Shields’ rotation spot, though not necessarily his production. However, it’s worth noting that both rWAR and RA9-WAR value Volquez and Shields similarly, as both produced excellent bottom-line results in 2014. Clearly, Volquez lacks the track record of Shields, and his peripheral stats are far more concerning. However, while Volquez detractors who point out that much of his success was due to Pittsburgh’s excellent defense and expansive home park may have a point, those same claims can be made about the Royals. It’s not unreasonable, then, to think that Volquez could produce another solid ERA mark, if his newfound control can be repeated.

The addition of Pino on a Major League deal was a surprise, and perhaps the Royals wouldn’t have extended that offer had they known that Young would be available for $675K some four months later, but there’s little financial commitment here, and the pair gives Kansas City some rotation depth and a pair of candidates for long relief in the event of an injury to a starter. Cheap rotation depth is never a bad thing, and in Young’s case, the same caveats that applied to Volquez’s success apply to his own 2014 triumphs; it’s difficult to imagine a decisively better landing spot than Kansas City for a fly-ball pitcher with questionable peripherals.

But, perhaps the best lottery ticket purchased by Moore and his staff this offseason was Medlen, who could be ready to join the rotation (or bullpen) by midseason, which gives the Royals an excellent contingency plan in the event that a starter falls to injury. Moreover, with Jeremy Guthrie set to hit the open market following this season, Medlen will have a rotation spot open for him in 2016, when he is presumably back to full strength. A healthy Medlen is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball — career 2.95 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 3.39 xFIP in 512 2/3 innings — and Kansas City’s stellar defense and spacious park should offset the transition from the NL to the AL.

The extensions for Hosmer and Herrera didn’t buy out any free agent years, and both will still be arbitration eligible after those deals are finished, but the club did spare itself some negotiation time next winter and attain a degree of cost certainty, which could be significant if Hosmer puts together a big season.

Questions Remaining

For all of the work the Royals did, there are still plenty of question marks surrounding this team. As noted above, the Royals bought low on a number of players, but they did so by paying a higher price than one might typically expect for bounceback candidates. Morales was one of baseball’s worst hitters in 2014, and while his contract could look like a bargain if he returns to his 2013 form, it could also look disastrous — particularly for a payroll-conscious team like Kansas City — if he cannot improve upon last year’s lack of production. (Also of note on the Morales deal, it’s worth pointing out that despite a putrid 2014 season, he will earn about $24.5MM from 2014-16 — a sum that is not wildly lower than the three-year, $30MM which he was criticized for rejecting in July 2013).

Rios was plagued by a thumb injury in 2014 that may have contributed to the disappearance of his power. Jumping to Kauffman Stadium doesn’t figure to boost his power numbers any, though better health may allow him to reach double-digit homers. Even if his bat bounces back, Ultimate Zone Rating gave him a negative mark in right field last year, and Defensive Runs Saved has given him negative marks in both of the past two seasons. Obviously, his defense could rebound, but Rios is also at the age where it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his glove-work begin to deteriorate.

The Royals will also be counting on a rebound from Omar Infante in the second season of his four-year contract, as the 32-year-old’s .252/.295/.337 batting line was his worst since 2005. On the other side of the diamond will be the confounding Mike Moustakas — an elite defender with notable power but feeble numbers versus lefties and a proclivity for infield flies. Moustakas would seem, on the surface, to have the tools of a star-level player, but he’s never hit consistently in the Majors. The same is true, albeit to a lesser extent, with Hosmer, who has shown flashes of the elite hitter he was projected to be but has never sustained that production for a full season. The fate of the 2015 Royals lies largely in the hands of their talented but inconsistent corner infielders.

The bullpen, of course, is among the game’s best, thanks to the late-inning triumvirate of Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera. A return to form for Hochevar would only strengthen that group, and bringing Frasor back was a strong low-cost move. However, the Royals will be without their top lefty, as Tim Collins is out for the year following Tommy John surgery. It’s possible that the injury will open a door for Brandon Finnegan, who was a force out of the bullpen in 2014. However, Finnegan, their top pick from last year’s draft, is viewed as a starter long-term, so the role may yet be given to Brian Flynn or a non-roster invitee like Franklin Morales or Joe Paterson.

Looking to the rotation, there’s no question that the loss of Shields will hurt, and Guthrie’s peripheral stats have indicated that a collapse could be imminent for years (though 2014 was his best season in quite some time). Whether or not Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy can take steps forward will be a critical component for this team.

Deals of Note

For all of the transactions made by Moore and the Royals this winter, the first one they made strikes me as the most curious. Declining Butler’s option seemed understandable from a statistical standpoint, given a two-year offensive decline and lack of defensive value. However, the fact that he signed a three-year, $30MM contract with the A’s seems to suggest that Butler likely would have had some legitimate trade value at one year and $12.5MM.

Oakland’s winning bid indicates that at least one other team had to be willing to pay somewhere in that neighborhood, and his option was valued at just $2.5MM higher than his eventual AAV, but with two fewer years of risk. Perhaps the Royals would only have gotten something of nominal value in return — similar to their own acquisition of Ervin Santana in exchange for Robert Fish two offseasons ago — but it does appear that there may have been an opportunity there.

Overview

As is the case in any offseason, it’s admittedly unfair to look back with the benefit of hindsight, but I can’t help but point out that the Royals spent $11MM on Rios when Aoki signed in San Francisco for a total of $4.7MM on a one-year deal. And, the ~$69MM total spent this offseason is just $6MM shy of the figure for which Shields signed in San Diego.

Clearly, there’s merit to spreading out the risk and shortening its length, as Kansas City did, but the club’s detractors will no doubt wonder if the team would have been better served spending about $80MM to retain Aoki and Shields than rolling the dice on so many uncertainties. While that path may have necessitated taking a minor league flier at the DH position, one could argue that there’s greater upside in taking that type of gamble on Ryan Ludwick or Juan Francisco than in giving Morales $17MM.

But, the risk of the Morales investment is somewhat of a microcosm of the entire Royals offseason. Diversified risk and deferred spending (in the form of backloaded deals and mutual options) characterize this past offseason, and Medlen’s contract in particular was one of the best low-risk signings of the winter in my eyes. If even a couple of the short-term deals issued by the reigning AL Champs pan out, they’ll be well-positioned in what should be a competitive AL Central.

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | March 13, 2015 at 11:10am CDT

The Yankees rebuilt their infield and bullpen this winter, yet depth could still be an issue given their several veterans with injury histories.

Major League Signings

Chase Headley, 3B: Four years, $52MM
Andrew Miller, RP: Four years, $36MM
Stephen Drew, MI: One year, $5MM
Chris Capuano, SP/RP: One year, $5MM
Chris Young, OF: One year, $2.5MM
Jose De Paula, SP: One year, $510K (split contract)
Total spend: $100.5MM (not counting the split deal)

Notable Minor League Signings

Andrew Bailey, Scott Baker ($1.5MM if he makes the MLB roster), Jared Burton ($2MM if he makes the MLB roster), Kyle Davies, Cole Figueroa, Slade Heathcott, Nick Noonan

Trades And Claims

Acquired SP Nathan Eovaldi, 1B/OF Garrett Jones and SP Domingo German from Marlins for IF Martin Prado, SP/RP David Phelps and $6MM in cash
Acquired SS Didi Gregorius from Diamondbacks as part of a three-team trade (Tigers received SP Shane Greene from Yankees; Diamondbacks received SP Robbie Ray and MI Domingo Leyba from Tigers)
Acquired RP David Carpenter and RP Chasen Shreve from Braves for SP Manny Banuelos
Acquired RP Justin Wilson from Pirates for C Francisco Cervelli
Acquired RP Johnny Barbato from Padres for RP Shawn Kelley
Acquired RP Chris Martin from Rockies for cash considerations

Notable Losses

David Robertson, Hiroki Kuroda, Brandon McCarthy, Ichiro Suzuki, David Huff, Preston Claiborne, Zelous Wheeler, Prado, Phelps, Greene, Cervelli, Kelley, Banuelos, Derek Jeter

Needs Addressed

While there was some question as to whether or not the Yankees would be willing to go to four years to re-sign Chase Headley, the team indeed brought him back on a four-year, $52MM contract to solidify the hot corner. Headley will provide New York with outstanding third base defense, and the team obviously hopes that playing in Yankee Stadium will get his bat back on track — the .262/.371/.398 slash line and 119 OPS+ that Headley posted over 224 PA as a Yankee last season is a good step in that direction.

In Didi Gregorius, the Yankees have addressed their hole at shortstop while still giving themselves flexibility for a future move should they feel Gregorius isn’t a long-term solution. Gregorius hasn’t shown all that much either at the plate (career 84 wRC+) or in the field (-3.3 UZR/150 at shortstop) during his brief career, yet it’s important to note that he’s had only 724 MLB plate appearances and he’s entering his age-25 season. He isn’t even arbitration-eligible until next winter, though assuming he accumulates a full year of Major League service time this season, Gregorius will have an extra year of arbitration eligibility due to him as a Super Two player.

Going into the offseason, the consensus was that the Yankees would address their infield by acquiring an everyday second or third baseman, with the versatile Martin Prado then playing the other position. Instead, Prado was shipped out to the Marlins as part of the multi-player deal that brought Garrett Jones and Nathan Eovaldi to the Bronx. Jones has an .811 OPS against right-handed pitching over his career, and with Yankee Stadium’s infamous short right field porch, Jones could provide some nice pop off the bench and also spell Mark Teixeira at first or Carlos Beltran in right field.

Eovaldi injects some youth and, perhaps just as importantly, durability into New York’s rotation, as the 25-year-old righty tossed 199 2/3 innings for Miami last season. Almost any hurler would be challenged by moving from pitcher-friendly Marlins Park to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, especially one who doesn’t strike out many batters like Eovaldi (career 6.28 K/9), though he’s working on a splitter to try to miss more bats.

With David Robertson off to the White Sox, the Yankees replaced one ace reliever with another as they signed Andrew Miller. It remains to be seen whether he or Dellin Betances will get the lion’s share of saves (or if they split the job), but however it shakes out, New York owns one of the most imposing one-two bullpen punches in the game. Miller was the most high-profile of several bullpen acquisitions for the Yankees, as they also added right-hander David Carpenter and lefties Chasen Shreve and Justin Wilson in separate deals with the Braves and Pirates. Between Miller, Shreve and Wilson, the Yankees greatly improved their left-handed relief depth, which has been an issue in recent years.

Questions Remaining

Between Masahiro Tanaka’s slightly torn UCL, Michael Pineda’s long history of shoulder problems and C.C. Sabathia’s recent knee injuries, the Yankees are going into the season crossing their fingers for good health from the top of their rotation. Compounding the problem, the re-signed Chris Capuano will start the year on the DL, robbing the club of its favorite for the fifth starter role.

Despite all these durability issues, the Yankees did little to address their rotation’s depth. Eovaldi will essentially serve as a replacement for Shane Greene, who enjoyed a nice breakout year in 2014 but was sent to the Tigers as part of the Gregorius deal. Swingman David Phelps was traded to Miami, and the Yankees didn’t re-sign either Hiroki Kuroda or Brandon McCarthy (though they looked into bringing McCarthy back, albeit only on a two-year deal).

This isn’t to say, however, that GM Brian Cashman hasn’t been actively looking for rotation upgrades. The Yankees have seemingly come the closest of any team to acquiring Cole Hamels from the Phillies, though as CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman subsequently reported, the two sides weren’t actually very close to working out a deal. Since the chance remains that any of all of Tanaka/Pineda/Sabathia could be healthy and productive, the Yankees will likely continue to play the waiting game until a move becomes essential. I would expect the Yankees to eventually aggressively pursue Hamels or any other high-priced aces (especially those who are pending free agents) at midseason in order to fill any clear holes that might emerge in the rotation.

Second base remains an unsettled position for New York, as while Stephen Drew was re-signed on a one-year, $5MM deal, it’s hard to know what to expect from the veteran given his sub-replacement level performance in 2014. Drew’s lengthy free agent stint and lack of a Spring Training could certainly be extenuating circumstances, yet as Drew enters his age-32 season, it’s unclear to what extent he’ll be able to bounce back. Drew may not get a lot of time to prove himself, as prospects Jose Pirela and Rob Refsnyder are waiting in the wings if Drew continues to struggle. Prado’s trade was something of a surprise given that he hit so well for the Yankees last season and his versatility was a boon on a team with so many injury and depth concerns. If Drew or the rookies can’t handle second base and/or Eovaldi struggles, questions will be asked about why Prado had to be moved.

Prado’s departure could be an even bigger issue if Headley struggles. While he did well in his short time in the Bronx, the Yankees have now committed $52MM to a player entering his age-31 season who has battled some recent injuries and been showing signs of decline at the plate. I can’t be too critical of the Headley deal given his solid track record or the lack of other available third base options this offseason, yet his signing doesn’t exactly make third base a worry-free zone for the team.

Like third base, shortstop is also still far from a certainty. Gregorius hasn’t been able to hit left-handed pitching at all, and it’s worth noting that two teams (the D-Backs and Reds) have to some extent already passed on Gregorius as their “shortstop of the future.” If Gregorius doesn’t play well, the Yankees don’t have much depth at short aside from Brendan Ryan, barring a scenario where Drew moves back to shortstop and Pirela or Refsnyder takes over at second.

No discussion of the 2015 Yankees is complete without the obligatory mention of Alex Rodriguez’s return. Even if Headley falters, it’s hard to see A-Rod getting significant time back at third given that he’s been slated for (at best) a part-time role as a DH and backup first baseman. Between Jones and the several full-time veterans the Yankees can rotate through the DH spot on rest days, the team has already protected itself against the possibility that Rodriguez may not be productive given his age, injury history and long absence from the game.

The Yankees signed 10 of Baseball America’s top 28 international prospects from the 2014-15 signing class, far exceeding their signing bonus limit and resulting in a punishment of not being allowed to sign any international prospect for more than a $300K bonus over each of the next two signing periods. With this looming restriction in mind, it may come back to haunt New York that the club was unable to land two of the higher-profile international prospects of the last few months — Yoan Lopez and Yoan Moncada, who respectively signed with the Diamondbacks and Red Sox. Missing out on Moncada was particularly hurtful for the Yankees, given that they were one of the finalists for the Cuban phenom and that he signed with their Boston arch-rivals.

Deal Of Note

While Miller will likely end up getting some save opportunities this season, he can still boast about landing the largest contract ever given to a reliever without any closing experience. It’s no surprise that the Yankees had to go to four years and $36MM to land the southpaw given that he had perhaps the widest market of any free agent this winter — a reported 23 teams showed some degree of interest in Miller’s services. In fact, the Yankees had only the second-largest deal on the table, as Miller turned down a four-year/$40MM offer from the Astros.

Committing four years to any reliever is a risk, especially since Miller has only been an effective bullpen arm since 2012 (as a lefty specialist) and he’d never posted a BB/9 of less than 4.5 prior to last season. This said, Miller was so dominant in 2014 that if he has turned the corner, he’s as good as any reliever in baseball.

It could be argued that the Yankees didn’t need to spend so much on a big bullpen arm given Betances’ presence, though Betances himself has less than two seasons as a full-time reliever. In a way, Betances and Miller are acting as each other’s security blankets; if one takes a step back this season, the Yankees will still have the other to stabilize the closer’s job.

Overview

After spending over $500MM on free agents in the 2013-14 offseason, this winter was a much quieter one for New York (though spending “only” $100MM on free agents counts as quiet only by Yankees standards). There was speculation that the Yankees would pursue one of the major free agent starters — Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields — this winter, though nothing much developed on that front.

It’s worth noting that signing Scherzer or Shields would’ve cost the Yankees a first round draft pick, and after their free agent splurge last year, the team didn’t seem keen on again limiting its draft pool. In fact, the Pinstripers are now up an extra pick for the 2015 draft due to the compensatory pick they’ll receive for Robertson signing elsewhere and saw the fourth-largest increase in their draft pool of any team from 2014 to 2015.

In my Yankees Offseason Outlook piece from last October, I predicted the team could be more active on the trade market than in free agency this winter, under the logic that the Yankees could use their financial resources more wisely by acquiring high-priced veterans (i.e. their midseason deals for Prado, McCarthy and Headley last year) from rebuilding teams. In some ways, that proved to be correct since the team filled more holes via trades than they did via free agents, though most of New York’s trade acquisitions weren’t veterans, but rather younger players like Gregorius, Eovaldi, Wilson, Carpenter and Shreve who all carry several years of team control.

As noted earlier about Gregorius, having controllable players gives the Yankees the flexibility to rather easily move on in the case of a downturn in performance. These players could also possibly become trade chips themselves should the Bombers pursue more high-profile upgrades later in the season.

These kinds of moves for young talent are necessary given how much money New York has tied up in expensive veterans. Between Teixeira, Sabathia, Rodriguez, McCann and Beltran, the Yankees will pay $100.125MM in 2015 to five players who combined for 2.7 fWAR in 2014. Various injuries (and, in A-Rod’s case, his suspension) obviously played a role in that low fWAR total, yet it’s almost impossible to imagine that all five will be totally healthy and productive this season. The Yankees are accounting for this to some extent, though even they can only plug so many holes; if Tanaka’s UCL issues worsen, or Pineda’s shoulder acts up, or if injuries strike Headley, Drew, Miller, etc., then the season will start to resemble a war of attrition with the disabled list, much like the team’s 2013-14 campaigns.

The lack of a clear favorite in the AL East certainly gives the Yankees a path to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2012. They’ll just need to rely on a lot of good health, a few breakout performances and a few returns to form from established players to manage it.

Image courtesy of Andy Marlin/USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

By Steve Adams | March 12, 2015 at 1:46pm CDT

Another postseason appearance without a World Series victory made for a disappointing finish in the Motor City, and the Tigers will now be relying on a rotation and an outfield that look markedly different than last year’s units.

Major League Signings

Victor Martinez, DH/1B/C: Four years, $68MM
Joba Chamberlain, RHP: One year, $1MM
Tom Gorzelanny, LHP: One year, $1MM
Total Spend: $70MM

Trades and Claims

Acquired OF Yoenis Cespedes, RHP Alex Wilson and LHP Gabe Speier from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Rick Porcello
Acquired OF Anthony Gose from the Blue Jays in exchange for 2B Devon Travis
Acquired RHP Alfredo Simon from the Reds in exchange for SS Eugenio Suarez and RHP Jonathon Crawford
Acquired RHP Shane Greene from the Yankees in a three-team deal that sent LHP Robbie Ray and SS/2B Domingo Leyba to the Diamondbacks
Claimed RHP Josh Zeid off waivers from the Astros

Extensions

None

Notable Minor League Deals

Joel Hanrahan (since released), Xavier Avery, Rafael Dolis, Daniel Schlereth, Casper Wells, Alberto Cabrera, Ryan Perry, Mike Hessman

Notable Losses

Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Torii Hunter, Phil Coke, Andy Dirks, Don Kelly, Robbie Ray, Eugenio Suarez

Needs Addressed

Knowing that a reunion with Max Scherzer was highly unlikely after the ace spurned a six-year, $144MM contract offer last year in Spring Training, the Tigers instead made fellow free agent Victor Martinez their top priority. V-Mart didn’t take long to be persuaded, though the price tag — a four-year, $68MM contract — makes that rather unsurprising. Though Martinez had interest from a number of other clubs coming off a monster season, the combination of a contract of that length at his age (36) and a familiar environment appealed enough to get a contract worked out at the GM Meetings. That decision looked perhaps questionable at the time, and naysayers had plenty of fuel for that opinion just a few months later, when Martinez underwent knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He’s expected to be ready for Opening Day, but knee surgery for a 36-year-old catcher-turned-DH is hardly the way team or player would have liked to kick off the new four-year pact.

The Tigers entered the 2014 season with a rotation of Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly, but just two of that quintet remain in the Motor City. Scherzer is with the Nationals after inking a seven-year, $210MM deal, while Smyly was sent to Tampa in the David Price trade. Porcello’s departure came this offseason, as he was flipped to the Red Sox in a trade that netted Yoenis Cespedes and a pair of relatively fringy relief prospects. The move found a younger replacement for the departing Torii Hunter and ultimately saved the Tigers a couple million dollars, as Cespedes’ $10.5MM salary is a bit less steep than the $12.5MM Porcello received to avoid arbitration.

Replacing Porcello and Scherzer will be righties Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon. In Greene, the Tigers were able to flip Robbie Ray — acquired in the widely panned Doug Fister trade from the 2013-14 offseason — and a well-regarded but low-level infield prospect for a controllable, affordable rotation option. Greene is entering his age-26 season after a nice rookie campaign with the Yankees in which he posted a 3.78 ERA in 78 2/3 innings. He’ll need to prove himself capable of holding down that role in the long run, as Greene has little minor league track record of which to speak and ranked among Baseball America’s Top 30 Tigers prospects just once (No. 16 prior to the 2014 season).

The move to acquire Simon was particularly surprising, in my eyes, not because the Tigers targeted him but because of the steep price Detroit paid for one year of Simon, who is eligible for free agency next winter. Simon fills the fifth slot in the rotation but at the steep price of Eugenio Suarez — at least a serviceable utility infielder, if not something more — and a power-armed prospect, Jonathon Crawford, that could’ve served as a long-term option in Detroit’s perennially questionable bullpen somewhere down the line. (Crawford was their first-round selection in the 2013 draft.)

Having traded Austin Jackson to the Mariners in the three-team Price deal, the Tigers lacked an everyday option in center field, but they addressed that by picking up Anthony Gose in exchange for prospect Devon Travis. Travis was blocked long-term by Ian Kinsler anyhow and has drawn some questionable reviews from some evaluators (others do feel he can be a big league second baseman), so moving him to acquire a defensively-gifted platoon partner for Rajai Davis made some sense. Gose has never hit much in the Majors but he covers quite a bit of ground in center field (+2 DRS and +13.6 UZR/150 in 901 MLB innings) and can hold his own in platoon situations (.241/.316/.350 career vs. RHP).

Joba Chamberlain was re-signed late in the offseason, and the team will hope that his 2015 looks more like last season’s first half than second half. Newcomer Tom Gorzelanny represents the only other addition to the bullpen, although the $7MM option on July acquisition Joakim Soria was exercised as well.

Questions Remaining

Detroit’s bullpen seems to be the team’s biggest flaw every season, and it is again a significant question mark heading into 2015. Joe Nathan endured his worst season since becoming a closer (with the possible exception of 2011 — his first back from Tommy John surgery) and will return along with a $10MM price tag to prove that he still has something left in the tank. Joakim Soria, one of the best setup men available on last year’s summer trade market, was a tremendous letdown with the Tigers, though that was at least partially due to an oblique strain that limited him to 11 unsightly innings with the club.

However, despite a series of bullpen meltdowns that resulted in the team’s exit from the 2014 playoffs, the only real change was swapping Gorzelanny out for the departed Phil Coke (who signed with the Cubs earlier this month). The Tigers are counting on big things from flamethrowing Bruce Rondon in his return from Tommy John surgery, but if he struggles in his first year back — which is highly possible, especially considering the fact that he’s thrown just 28 2/3 Major League innings — the Tigers could be in for a long season full of bullpen-driven headaches.

The rotation, too, is anything but certain. While we know which five starters will comprise the group — Price, Verlander, Sanchez, Greene and Simon — the effectiveness of that group is far from a guarantee. Verlander struggled all season in 2014 after undergoing core muscle surgery. He told ESPN’s Jayson Stark this spring that the residual effect of that operation was pain in his shoulder from an inability to use his core properly, adding that he was well behind schedule to open the year. Greene, as noted above, has little Major League experience and lacks any form of minor league track record. And Simon, who was excellent for the Reds in the first half of 2014, wilted in the second half somewhat predictably. Simon’s first-half dominance in Cincinnati (2.70 ERA in 116 2/3 innings) was driven by a .232 average on balls in play and an 85.1 percent strand rate. He didn’t come close to sustaining either and saw his ERA spike to 4.52 in the second half. Simon entered the 2014 season with just 19 career starts and was somewhat surprisingly able to make 32 last year, but whether or not he can do it again remains to be seen. He also averaged just 5.8 K/9, and a move to the American League isn’t going to help in that regard.

Looking at the rest of the roster, both Miguel Cabrera and Alex Avila have some health question marks, while the world will be watching J.D. Martinez intently to see if he can sustain last season’s incredible breakout campaign. If he falters, Steven Moya could get a look this summer. Nick Castellanos was below average at the plate but historically bad from a defensive standpoint, at least per Defensive Runs Saved (-30), so it’s conceivable that third base will eventually be an issue as well. At shortstop, the team is banking on Jose Iglesias return to health after stress fractures in both shins cost him the entire 2014 season. His importance is even more crucial following the trade of Suarez to Cincinnati.

The largest question surrounding the team this spring, however, may have nothing to do with on-field production at all. Rather, all eyes will be on Price, as he’s said on multiple occasions that he is open to an extension with Detroit and expects the team to engage him in talks before he hits free agency. One would imagine that the Tigers may be comfortable offering Price something similar to the six-year, $144MM deal they offered Scherzer last year, but Price and agent Bo McKinnis undoubtedly took notice of the Scherzer contract and have to feel confident that they could at least secure a Jon Lester-like $155MM over six years.

Deal of Note

The acquisition of Cespedes was perhaps more interesting than it appeared on the surface. The Tigers and Red Sox essentially swapped comparably priced, above-average though not-quite-star players who have one year of team control remaining. However, Cespedes, unlike Porcello, is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer at season’s end, so the Tigers also parted with the ability to receive draft pick compensation.

Detroit did save about $2MM in the trade, which is probably in the neighborhood of the slot value the Sox would receive in a 2016 pick, should Porcello reject a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere. (And, one would presume that as a 27-year-old free agent, if he performs well enough to receive a QO, it’ll be a no-brainer to reject it.)

Overview

It’s become almost cliche to say that the Tigers are nearing the end of their window of contention, but that may very well be the case when looking at their long-term payroll. Detroit already has $101MM committed to Verlander, Cabrera, Martinez, Sanchez and Kinsler for the 2017 season, and the first three of that trio will earn a combined $76MM in 2018. On top of that, the team is considered to have one of league’s worst farm systems. Clearly, the Tigers are attempting to win now, perhaps knowing that their core will be more expensive than productive in the not-too-distant future.

The current group is considered by many a favorite in the AL Central, but there’s some very real uncertainty at the back of the rotation, in the bullpen and on the left side of the infield (to say nothing of health concerns for nearly all of the team’s top players).

Still, the star power and talent on this team is undeniable, and if Cabrera, Verlander and Martinez are healthy, it’s tough to envision them falling out of the race in the AL Central. However with Price, Simon and Cespedes among the players currently on pace to hit the open market next winter, it’ll be interesting to see how the team approaches future seasons, especially if the remnants of an already depleted farm system are stripped down even further for trades this summer. Of course, one World Series win would likely make it all worth it for the Tigers and their fans.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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