These Players Can Exit Their Contracts After 2020
No matter if a Major League Baseball season takes place in 2020, there are certain players who will be in position to decide whether to exit their current contracts next winter. Whether it be by way of an opt-out clause or a mutual option, here’s a look at the players who will be able to choose to take their chances in free agency…
Opt-Outs
Back when the Marlins extended outfielder Giancarlo Stanton on a historic pact worth $325MM over 13 years in 2014, they included a one-time opt-out for next winter. Stanton has put up at least one phenomenal season since he signed that deal – he won the NL MVP and hit 59 home runs in 2017 – but injuries have hampered him on a regular basis. He’s now a member of the Yankees, who acquired him in a December 2017 deal, but Stanton played in just 18 games last season. He’ll still be owed $218MM for seven years after this season, and for at least the time being, it’s very tough to think of Stanton leaving that money on the table to test free agency.
Designated hitter J.D. Martinez, a member of the Yankees’ archrival in Boston, will have two years and $38.75MM remaining on his contract after this season. He’ll be 33 then, and will continue to be someone who’s known as a defensive liability, so should be opt out? It’s up for debate. The big-hitting Martinez remains an offensive standout, but his production last season fell (granted, he did still slash .304/.383/.557 with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances). He subsequently chose not to opt out after last season, as doing so would have cost him his $23.75MM salary for this year.
One of Martinez’s former Tigers teammates, outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, will also have to choose whether to revisit free agency next offseason. Castellanos is another defensively challenged slugger, one whom the Reds guaranteed $64MM over four years this past winter. He’ll be 29 by the time the 2021 season rolls around, and by saying goodbye to his Reds pact, he’d be leaving $48MM on the table (including a $2MM buyout in 2024). It’s not easy to determine whether that will happen; some of it depends on how well Castellanos fares in 2020, if a season occurs. Carrying over the tremendous production he posted late last season after the Cubs acquired him from the Tigers may make Castellanos more inclined to try his luck on the market again, but his output at the plate has been more good than great throughout his career.
Mutual Options
For the most part, mutual options don’t get picked up. Either a player’s so effective that he opts for free agency or he’s not useful enough for his team to exercise the option. Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy and reliever Wade Davis are among those who have mutual option decisions waiting after the season, but they’ve struggled in the club’s uniform so far. With that in mind, Murphy’s on track for a $6MM buyout (as opposed to a $12MM salary), while Davis figures to receive a $1MM buyout instead of a $15MM payday.
Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun ($15MM mutual option, $4MM buyout), Diamondbacks right-hander Mike Leake ($18MM mutual option, $5MM buyout) and Cubs lefty Jon Lester ($25MM mutual option, $10MM buyout) could also find themselves looking for new contracts next winter. The same goes for Mets reliever Dellin Betances, though it’s tougher to say in his case. The former Yankee barely pitched at all season on account of injuries, and if there isn’t a season in 2020, would he turn down a guaranteed $6MM in 2021? And would the Mets buy him out for $3MM? That’s one of the many interesting questions we could face next offseason.
How The Angels Discovered Mike Trout
This article by Chuck Wasserstrom was originally published in 2017. For all the entries in Chuck’s Inside the Draft Room series for MLBTR, click here.
The way things are shaping up, the 2009 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim draft would have to be considered a good one even if the 25th pick belonged to somebody else. When three starting pitchers (including two southpaws) and a power-hitting position player reach and produce at the major league level, it makes for a nice haul.
The team’s first selection, Randal Grichuk, is now a starting outfielder for the Cardinals – and is coming off a 24-homer season as a 24-year-old.
Supplemental first-rounders Tyler Skaggs and Garrett Richards were members of the Angels’ season-opening starting rotation. Second-round pick Patrick Corbin is the Diamondbacks’ No. 2 starter.
[Editor’s note: More recently, Grichuk was a regular in the Blue Jays’ outfield, Richards is penciled in as a key member of the Padres’ rotation, and Corbin excelled in his first season with the Nationals. Skaggs tragically passed away in July last year.]
But then, of course, there is the matter of the Angels having the 25th pick that year. And you can very easily picture Commissioner Bud Selig walking to the podium and making his announcement: “With the 25th selection in the first round of the 2009 First-Year Player Draft, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim select Michael Trout.”
“I’ve never seen a team walk out of a draft and think they had a bad draft,” said Eddie Bane, the Angels’ scouting director from 2004-2010 and now a special assignment scout for the Boston Red Sox. “Everybody thinks that their draft was the greatest of all-time every year. Sure, we were guilty of the same thing. I don’t know if guilty is the right word; you just love scouting so much that you think the players you picked are just awesome. That’s the way it works. You think you’re going to help stack the organization; that’s the way everybody thinks. But we actually did. It’s kind of a rarity.”
In 2008, the Angels won a major league-best 100 games and went to the postseason for the fifth time in seven years.
Success on the field was mirrored by the Angels’ frequent forays into free agency, which directly impacted the team’s amateur draft capabilities. Over their previous five drafts, the team gave up seven high-round picks as free agent compensation, losing either a first- or second-round pick every year.
The 2009 draft, from that standpoint, was no different; the Angels surrendered their own No. 1 (No. 32 overall) as compensation for the signing of free agent closer Brian Fuentes.
However, the Angels lost several key players to free agency – closer Francisco Rodriguez (to the Mets), first baseman Mark Teixeira (to the Yankees) and starting pitcher Jon Garland (to the Diamondbacks). Lo and behold, the team had a glut of high-round picks – back-to-back at 24-25, followed swiftly by supplemental selections at 40, 42 and 48.
(Have you forgotten how the old Type A/Type B free agent compensation system worked? Take a trip down memory lane.)
“I started with the Angels in 2004, and we had a pick at 12 and got Jered Weaver. But other than that, we never had anything in the first 25 because we were pretty good and we were more in the shopping business,” said Bane – a no-nonsense, tell-it-like-it-is type whose previous Angels drafts included the selection of future big leaguers Weaver, Nick Adenhart, Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, Hank Conger, Jordan Walden, Tyler Chatwood and Will Smith. “We never thought once about not having a really high pick; that was normal. So we were really excited because we had five picks. We thought that was awesome.”
If you recall, 2009 was the “Year of Strasburg.” The chances of Stephen Strasburg getting past Washington and falling all the way to No. 2 in the draft were largely nonexistent.
“I saw him pitch one time for about 2.0 innings and said, ‘This is a waste of time,’” Bane recalled. “I told the area scout to just make sure he does a good job on Strasburg’s makeup and everything else. You don’t spend a lot of time on Stephen Strasburg when you’re picking 24-25.”
Bane started ruling out others he knew would be gone by the middle of the first round and started focusing on players who he thought could be there for him. One player he was immediately drawn to was a prep outfielder out of Lamar Consolidated High School in Rosenberg, Texas, named Randal Grichuk.
“Jeff Malinoff, one of my national cross-checkers who was as good of a hitting scouting guy as there’s ever been … he loved Randal, as did Kevin Ham, the area scout,” Bane said. “Randal could hit his home runs a long way to right-center and left-center. Obvious power. Good athlete. All that stuff. We thought there would be a chance that he would get there.
“It’s hard to describe to people the excitement you get when you see somebody that not every scout loves, and you see the passion they have for the game, and you file that away. I still remember batting practice; I was there with Jeff, and Randal was hitting rockets out to right-center. With Randal, the body has improved with maturity, but it’s not dramatically different than he was in high school. He was a strong, good athlete that could go get a ball in centerfield. His arm was fine. To me, he looked like a lock first rounder. That’s when you start thinking immediately, ‘Well, he won’t be there when we pick’ – because you think other teams see it exactly the way you do. Fortunately, they don’t.”
And then, of course, there was another prep outfielder that Bane locked in on – this one out of Millville Senior High School in New Jersey. Two MVP seasons and three MVP runner-up campaigns later, it’s still hard to believe that Mike Trout would be available that deep in the draft.
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Prospect Faceoff: Pick An Outfielder
We at MLBTR have been doing head-to-head comparisons of some of baseball’s elite prospects in recent weeks. Let’s keep it going with a pair of the minors’ top young outfielders, the Mariners’ Jarred Kelenic and the Braves’ Cristian Pache. The two would have been National League East rivals had the Mets not traded Kelenic (we’ve covered their 2018 blockbuster with the Mariners extensively of late; see: here, here and here), but it wasn’t to be. Kelenic now looks like a tremendous building block for the long-suffering Mariners, while Pache could amount to the latest homegrown Braves great.
Kelenic was the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft, and there now seems to be an almost unanimous belief that he is the game’s 11th-best prospect. Each of MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs place him in that position, after all. The power-hitting 20-year-old climbed to the Double-A level for the first time last season, his debut campaign in the Seattle organization, and batted .253/.315/.542 with six home runs in 92 plate appearances. Not necessarily extraordinary numbers on paper, nor was it a huge sample size, but that line was an impressive 33 percent better than the league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. Speaking of FanGraphs, their own Eric Longenhagen wrote just two weeks ago of Kelenic, “He’s much more stick than glove, but Kelenic looks like an All-Star center fielder who’s rapidly approaching Seattle.” The upside’s definitely there for Kelenic, like fellow Mariners outfield prospect Julio Rodriguez, to help the Mariners escape the mire in the coming years.
Unlike the M’s, the Braves have enjoyed quite a bit of success in recent years. They’re back-to-back NL East champions who probably aren’t going away in the near future, considering the vast amount of talent they possess. And it appears to be only a matter of time before they get a look at Pache, who just turned 21 a few months ago and could someday join the amazing Ronald Acuna Jr. (and maybe fellow prospect Drew Waters) as an indispensable part of the Braves’ outfield. For now, the experts at Baseball America (No. 12), MLB.com (No. 13) and FanGraphs (No. 20) say Pache is among baseball’s 20 premier prospects. Pache was terrific last year in Double-A, where he hit .278/.340/.474 (134 wRC+) with 11 homers in 433 PA, but wasn’t quite as powerful in his initial taste of Triple-A action (.274/.337/.411 with a single HR over 105 PA). However, as Longenhagen suggested a couple months back, Pache won’t need to post all-world offensive numbers to make a notable impact in the bigs, as he possesses tremendous upside as a defender.
Kelenic and Pache could eventually turn into two of the top center fielders in the game, but their styles are different. Kelenic seems to be more of a force at the plate, while defense looks like Pache’s forte. Which one would you rather have? (Poll link for app users)
Choose a prospect
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Jarred Kelenic 54% (3,115)
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Cristian Pache 46% (2,698)
Total votes: 5,813
This Date In Transactions History: Give The Padres A Hand
In terms of on-field results, it hasn’t been a fruitful tenure in San Diego for general manager A.J. Preller, who hasn’t even overseen a .500 team since his hiring in 2014. But it was on this day four years ago that Preller made one of his best moves as the head of the club’s baseball department. On April 8, 2016, Preller’s Padres claimed left-handed reliever Brad Hand from the Marlins via waivers. It’s now fair to say the decision counts as one of the biggest steals of the past several years.
When the Padres put in their claim, Hand – a 2008 second-round pick and a then-26-year-old – had failed to distinguish himself as either a quality starter or a solid reliever. As a member of the Marlins, he totaled 90 appearances (43 starts) and 288 2/3 innings of 4.71 ERA/4.54 FIP ball with just 5.9 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. The Marlins designated him for assignment as a result, but the light bulb immediately went on in San Diego in 2016, when he switched to a full-time relief role.
Owing in part to an increased reliance on his slider, Hand notched a 2.92 ERA/3.07 FIP with 11.18 K/9 and 3.63 BB/9 in 89 1/3 innings during his initial Padres season. The good times have kept rolling since then for Hand, who has earned three straight All-Star nods. Since the Marlins cut ties with him, Hand has logged a 2.75 ERA/3.04 FIP and 12.23 K/9 against 3.08 BB/9 across 298 frames. And he has cashed in along the way, having inked a three-year, $19.75MM guarantee in advance of the 2018 season. Odds are that Hand will collect another $10MM in 2021, as it’s difficult to see his employer turning down that reasonably priced option in favor of a $1MM buyout.
While the Padres were the ones who made that financial commitment to Hand, he’s no longer on their roster. After Hand generated significant trade interest from around the game, the Padres sold high on him in in July 2018. They sent him and fellow reliever Adam Cimber to Cleveland for catcher/outfielder Francisco Mejia, then one of the highest-ranked prospects in baseball.
Hand has been an effective closer for the Indians (Cimber struggled somewhat last year), whereas Mejia hasn’t quite lived up to the hype he drew in his younger days. However, that’s not to say Mejia is a lost cause by any means. The switch-hitting 24-year-old is coming off his first extensive action in the majors, where he batted a decent .265/.316/.438 (96 wRC+) with eight home runs in 244 plate appearances last season. Mejia did have difficulty behind the plate, throwing out only 17 percent of would-be base stealers and earning a below-average pitch-framing grade, though the Padres are no doubt still hopeful that he’ll emerge as their long-term solution at catcher. Even if he doesn’t, it’s hard to argue with the value they received in the Hand trade, and it never would have happened had they not made the wise decision to grab him off the waiver wire four years back.
Don’t Give Up On The Blue Jays’ Other Top Prospect After A Rough Rookie Year
With Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio bursting onto the scene in Toronto and right-hander Nate Pearson looming in Triple-A as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm, the Blue Jays have the makings of a strong young core. But the debuts of those three bats and the hype surrounding Pearson have overshadowed the arrival of another of Toronto’s top prospects: catcher Danny Jansen.
Jansen, 25 next week, didn’t exactly help his own cause with a tepid showing at the plate in his rookie season. The former 16th-round pick posted an ugly .207/.279/.360 batting line in 384 plate appearances — not exactly a scintillating followup to the .247/.347/.432 slash he compiled through 95 plate appearances as a late-season call-up in 2018. It’s understandable that such a forgettable performance would lead him to be overlooked, but there’s still reason to believe that Jansen can be an important piece of the Jays’ next contending club.
Firstly, it’s worth noting that despite his middling draft status, Jansen emerged as a prospect of considerable note. Prior to the 2019 campaign, Jansen ranked comfortably inside the game’s top 100 prospects according to each of Baseball America (No. 42), FanGraphs (No. 47), MLB.com (No. 65) and Baseball Prospectus (No. 89). He ranked just outside the top 100 (No. 107) on the ESPN’ rankings. During his final full season in Triple-A, Jansen hit .275/.390/.473 with a dozen homers and a 12.2 percent walk rate that only marginally trailed his 13.6 percent strikeout rate. There’s enough pedigree here to suggest improvement based on that alone.
But Jansen’s work at the plate likely wasn’t as bad as it would appear upon first glance. While he doesn’t run well enough to ever be likely to post a particularly high average on balls in play, Jansen’s .230 mark in 2019 still seems ripe for some positive regression. He’d only posted a mark lower than that once in his career — back in 2015 in a 46-game sample in Class-A. During Jansen’s final two seasons in the upper minors, his BABIP hovered around .300.
According to Statcast, Jansen made hard contact (95 mph or better in terms of exit velocity) at a 40 percent clip that, while not elite, was above the league average. Of the 406 hitters who put at least 100 balls into play last season, Jansen ranked 148th. His bottom-line results at the plate (.275 wOBA) were along the lines of what one might expect from a defensive specialist like Austin Hedges (.266 expected wOBA) or Jarrod Dyson (.273 xwOBA), but Jansen’s .314 xwOBA was markedly higher. The 39-point gap between his actual wOBA and expected wOBA was the fourth-largest of any player who underperformed his xwOBA in 2019, trailing only Marcell Ozuna, Justin Smoak and C.J. Cron.
Put another way: based on the quality of his contact and his K/BB tendencies, Statcast felt that Jansen should’ve been within striking distance of league average at the plate. Instead, he was one of the game’s least-productive hitters.
But even that generalization shrouds some positives that Jansen displayed. While he struggled through miserable months in April and May to begin the season, Jansen heated up with the weather and found himself as one of the game’s more productive catchers from June through August. In that stretch, he notched a respectable .243/.310/.459 batting line in 205 plate appearances — good for a 101 wRC+. League-average production out of a catcher is rare — catchers posted a collective 85 wRC+ in 2019 — so Jansen demonstrating that type of ability over a three-month stretch is heartening. And if he can drop his 20.9 percent strikeout rate such that it more closely mirrors his excellent marks in the upper minors, Jansen’s profile becomes all the more interesting.
Defensively, Jansen shined in 2019, which is a bit odd given that most scouting reports on him cast him as a bat-first catcher and a mediocre defender. His 2.05 second average pop time was well below average — 58th of 78 qualified catchers — but Jansen still threw out 31 percent of those who attempted to run on him. In terms of framing, Jansen ranked among the game’s best according to each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. He was also strong in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt per Baseball Prospectus, which ranked Jansen seventh among all MLB catchers in terms of adjusted fielding runs above average.
Jansen might not possess the superstar upside of current teammates like Bichette and Guerrero or his soon-to-be battery-mate Pearson. But he clearly has the makings of an average or better hitter moving forward, and the 2019 season suggests that his defense might be far more valuable than many had hoped of him as a prospect. An above-average defensive catcher with a competent (or better) bat is the type of talent clubs spend years trying to get their hands on — there’s a reason Jansen drew trade interest early in the offseason — and Jansen could be just that for an increasingly interesting Blue Jays club. It’s easy for Jansen to get lost in the shuffle when looking at the Jays’ young core, but a breakout when play resumes shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Rockies Provide Timetable On Peter Lambert Injury
Rockies right-hander Peter Lambert, diagnosed with a forearm strain a month ago, is progressing through a rehab program but is still three to four weeks from being cleared to throw, pitching coach Steve Foster tells reporters (Twitter link via Kyle Newman of the Denver Post).
At the time of Lambert’s injury, Colorado declined to put a timetable on his recovery, with reports indicating that he was expected to miss “significant” time. Today’s news from Foster doesn’t provide an expected return to game readiness, but the fact that he’s close to a month from even beginning a throwing program suggests that he’s multiple months away from that point. Any early throwing Lambert does would of course be limited, and he’d need time to ramp up to long toss, throwing off a mound, facing live hitters, etc.
Lambert, 23 next week, is hardly a household name but is a young hurler of some note within the organization’s ranks. He was the club’s second-round pick (44th overall) back in 2015 and steadily rose through the minor league system, ultimately making his big league debut in 2019. He started 19 games for the Rox with woeful results (7.25 ERA, 5.97 FIP), but this time last year, Lambert was considered one of the organization’s best overall prospects. On a national scale, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel ranked him as the game’s No. 120 overall prospect heading into the season. At that point, he was fresh off a 2018 season that saw him toss 148 innings of 3.28 ERA ball with a 106-to-27 K/BB ratio and a grounder rate just shy of 50 percent between Double-A and Triple-A.
Even a healthy Lambert wouldn’t have been a lock to begin the year in Colorado’s rotation. Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland seemed like locks, while out-of-options hurlers Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman were slated to vie for rotation spots along with Lambert, Chi Chi Gonzalez and others (including non-roster invitee Ubaldo Jimenez). The delayed start to the year could conceivably give Lambert enough time to reenter that mix, depending on when (or if) a second training camp is able to come together.
Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs spent significant sums in free agency for the first time since GM Mike Hazen came aboard and pulled off an interesting trade for a key veteran. But is it enough to mount a real challenge to the dominant division force?
Major League Signings
- Madison Bumgarner, SP: five years, $85MM
- Kole Calhoun, OF: two years, $16MM (includes $2MM buyout on $9MM club option)
- Stephen Vogt, C: one year, $3MM (includes $500K buyout of $3MM vesting/club option)
- Hector Rondon, RP: one year, $3MM (includes $500K buyout of $4MM club option)
- Junior Guerra, RP: one year, $2.65MM (includes $100K buyout of club option)
- Total spend: $109.65MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired OF Starling Marte (with $1.5MM salary offset) from Pirates in exchange for SS Liover Peguero, RHP Brennan Malone and $250K of international bonus availability
- Acquired RHP Jeremy Beasley from Angels in exchange for RHP Matt Andriese
- Claimed INF Pat Valaika off waivers from Orioles (Baltimore later reacquired Valaika via waivers)
Extensions
Notable Minor League Signings
- Aaron Blair, John Hicks, David Huff, Edwin Jackson, Jon Jay, Mark Leiter Jr., Joe Mantiply, Dalton Pompey, Travis Snider, Trayce Thompson
Notable Losses
- Wilmer Flores, Taijuan Walker, Steven Souza Jr., Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Yoshihisa Hirano, Alex Avila, Caleb Joseph, Abraham Almonte, Blake Swihart
Hazen has rightly drawn plaudits — including from us at MLBTR! — for his work since coming aboard in 2016. The organization has managed to stay competitive and build up an increasingly deep and well-regarded farm system.
It’s tough to do both of those things at the same time. Entering the winter, it was hardly clear exactly what direction the Arizona organization would take — if it would move one way or the other at all. There’s a danger of stasis and bland mediocrity in the middle as well.
From the outset, there was talk of the D-Backs trading Robbie Ray. Having already sent out a number of other shorter-term veterans in recent years — most prominently, Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke — it seemed possible or even likely that the club would again look to increase its long-term talent pool while back-filling with younger MLB talent. That has worked out exceedingly well in both of the above cases. Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly came over in the Goldy swap. The Snakes snagged Zac Gallen in a separate deal even as they moved Greinke for some MLB-ready talent (including Corbin Martin and Josh Rojas).
It’s important to remember just how little Hazen had done in free agency. Before this offseason, he had never inked an open-market deal worth even $10MM — though he had done a few such extensions. As it turned out, the Diamondbacks moved in a decidedly win-now direction, though they did so in a far less splashy manner than when they acquired Greinke and Shelby Miller in that memorable winter under the prior regime.
With an ever-flexible, opportunistic approach to roster-building, Hazen may well have set his course when he learned of a fairly unique opportunity. Madison Bumgarner, a legitimate franchise legend of the division-rival Giants, had keen interest in playing for Arizona. The club sorted out a back-loaded contract that could make MadBum a D-Back for the rest of his career. It’s not a zero-risk proposition, and he probably isn’t going to return to his prior levels of dominance, but it was a nice price for a veteran performer who’s a clear rotation upgrade.
It was settled: Ray would stay, pairing with Bumgarner as a veteran 1-2 southpaw punch. The rotation was set with the steady Mike Leake and aforementioned Weaver and Gallen, with swingman Merrill Kelly ready to step in where needed. There was already a series of quality upper-level arms available — Jon Duplantier, Alex Young, Taylor Clarke, Taylor Widener — which left the team without need of Taijuan Walker. Rather than taking a roll of the dice on Walker, the D-Backs non-tendered him.
The Snakes also non-tendered outfielder Steven Souza, who joined Walker as a disappointing prior trade acquisition. That left the team with another outfield slot to be filled — to go with the potential opening in center field that would allow emergent star Ketel Marte to move back into the infield, as the club preferred.
There were loads of possibilities for adding the requisite outfield pieces. The D-Backs ultimately grabbed two veterans, both on reasonable salaries — one via free agency and the other via trade. Kole Calhoun forms a lefty-lefty corner duo with David Peralta, who also inked an affordable three-year extension. Calhoun isn’t likely to be a star-level performer, but he’s sure to be a grinder and fills a need at a palatable rate of pay.
Of greater interest: the D-Backs cashed in two of their far-off farmhands to land talented center fielder Starling Marte. He’ll cost the team $11.5MM this year and $12.5MM next, less the $1.5MM the Bucs chipped in. As I wrote in previewing the offseason for this club, “there’s an argument to be made that [Marte] fits in just the right space (two years of affordable but not cheap control) for the D-Backs.” That’s obviously how the team saw it.
(Starling) Marte should offer a nice blend of floor and upside for the Snakes, who could still pivot and deal him if circumstances warrant. It’s much the same approach Hazen has taken time and again when he sees solid value in quality, established players. The team has now done so several times in the extension context — first with infielder Eduardo Escobar, this winter with Peralta and shortstop Nick Ahmed.
Now that (Ketel) Marte is back in the infield, the club has extended players occupying the 4-5-6 positions. Christian Walker and Jake Lamb will handle first base (with the latter also appearing at the hot corner), rounding out the chief needs. There are a variety of reserve and depth options already on the 40-man roster, including utility infielder Ildemaro Vargas, first baseman Kevin Cron, and second/third base candidate in Rojas.
Behind the dish, the Snakes will hope that Carson Kelly can keep things moving in a positive direction. They replaced Alex Avila with another left-handed-hitting bat-first receiver in Stephen Vogt.
As with the addition of Vogt, the D-Backs decided on some modest veteran spending to bolster the relief unit. Junior Guerra and Hector Rondon will each occupy setup slots in front of returning closer Archie Bradley. It’s tough to project this unit as a marked strength, but the Arizona org will be aided by its collection of 40-man pitching depth (which includes some of the aforementioned players and a host of others with no or little MLB experience).
2020 Season Outlook
This is a strong overall roster that doesn’t really have holes … but still doesn’t seem near the overall talent level of the Dodgers. Even if the double-Marte combination stars and all of the solid veterans play well, it’s going to be awfully tough to prevent the L.A. behemoth from an eighth-straight NL West crown.
Still, the Diamondbacks are good enough that they could yet surprise if the Dodgers falter — especially in a short-season format. And a Wild Card spot is firmly in play. The club obviously feels it has set itself up for continued competitiveness in the near-term without sacrificing its long-term ability to contend — either by mortgaging the farm or bogging down the payroll. That’s the general approach that most mid-market teams have tried to find, but the current Diamondbacks regime is looking particularly adept at striking that balance.
How would you grade the club’s offseason efforts? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)
Grade the Diamondbacks' offseason:
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B 43% (931)
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A 42% (905)
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C 11% (245)
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F 2% (45)
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D 1% (30)
Total votes: 2,156
The Padres’ Interesting Rotation
We’ve heard an awful lot of chatter over the years about the Padres trying to acquire premium MLB rotation pieces — Noah Syndergaard, etc. They’ve yet to swing such a deal, but nevertheless have managed to compile rather an interesting slate of starters.
While much of the excitement has remained focused on the future — MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, and more — that tends to obscure the present. There’s an intriguing blend of reasonable expectations and soaring upside in the unit on hand.
Let’s start with a few projections …
The composite expectations of ZiPS & Steamer present rather a favorable view of the Friars’ starting unit, predicting ~3 WAR performances from Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, and Dinelson Lamet. That system likes Paddack a bit more than the other two, due mostly to an expectation that he’ll make three more starts. ZiPS sees Joey Lucchesi as a sturdy 2.5 WAR hurler and likes Zach Davies to deliver in the range of 1.5 WAR. It’s less than enthused about Cal Quantrill as the top depth piece.
PECOTA tells a broadly similar tale of possibilities, but bakes in added padding for the long-term health questions facing Richards and Lamet. The Baseball Prospectus computers are also significantly less optimistic when it comes to the quality of Lucchesi and Davies.
This is a good time to pause and consider the context. Getting ~13 WAR out of a rotation would mean having one of the ten or so best staffs in baseball. In terms of projections, the Fangraphs numbers put the San Diego starting group behind the Dodgers but slightly ahead of the Diamondbacks on paper. 13 is a pretty strong number as mean expectations go. Even with superstar Jacob deGrom, but sans Noah Syndergaard, the Mets sit at a ~15 WAR projection.
Of course, that PECOTA projection hints at the real downside concern here. Both Richards and Lamet returned last year from Tommy John surgery. We’ve seen plenty of hurlers put that procedure in the rearview mirror, but some can run into difficulties — sometimes as other, potentially connected health problems arise — after showing initial promise. (Matt Harvey, anyone?) The hope is to unleash Paddack fully after keeping him on a leash last year, but he’s also a fairly recent TJ recipient.
And what of the other members of the staff? Davies has mostly produced very solid numbers, but he struggled quite a lot in 2018 and his peripherals didn’t excite in 2019. Davies logged a 3.55 ERA last year but FIP (4.56), xFIP (5.20) and SIERA (5.43) were decidedly unimpressed. Lucchesi was steadier in 2019 but doesn’t have as long of a track record. These are solid and useful pitchers, but they’re unlikely to lead the way if the top trio falters.
Depth isn’t necessarily a strong suit, either. Quantrill hasn’t really shown a spark to this stage of his career. Luis Perdomo and Matt Strahm seem likelier to work out in the bullpen. Other 40-man members — Adrian Morejon, Michael Baez, Ronald Bolanos — are quite speculative as immediate-term MLB starters. There are some non-roster players with experience in Jerad Eickhoff (looking to bounce back after washing out with the Phillies), Seth Frankoff (back from a successful KBO stint), Jacob Nix and Brett Kennedy (outrighted after struggling in 2018 debuts with the Pads). But it’s tough to rely much upon that slate of players.
Frankly, though, the reasonably anticipated scenario and the downside scenario aren’t the interesting ones. This is a season in which the Friars face long odds — if indeed it gets underway at all. Upside is where it’s at.
When it comes to ceiling, there’s a lot to like about this staff. Let’s start with Paddack, who faded as he got deep into a personal-high workload of 140 2/3 innings. He has now handled a full season in the majors and can build off of that without restraint. Last year, as a 23-year-old rookie, he pitched to a 3.33 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over 26 starts. With further growth, he could blossom into a legitimate #1 starter.
And hang on … are we underestimating Richards and Lamet? The former didn’t exactly return to top form in the results department late in 2019, but the fact he was able to get back to competitive action was quite promising. If he can work anywhere near his career norm (3.60 ERA) he’d be a huge piece for the Pads. The flamethrowing former Angels ace arguably has ceiling beyond that.
Lamet is perhaps even more interesting. He not only was able to make it through 14 starts in 2019, working to a solid 4.07 ERA, but generated an eye-popping 12.9 K/9. Lamet showed bigger velocity (96+ mph average fastball) and swinging-strike ability (14.0% SwStr) than he did in his rookie season.
It isn’t altogether impossible to imagine a three-headed monster forming at the top of this Padres staff … if everything breaks right. Combined with the two other quality starters — not to mention a similarly intriguing relief mix fronted by Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, and Drew Pomeranz — you can begin to see the possibilities for a pitching-led Padres breakout. This is all the more interesting since we’re looking at a short-season format where depth may not matter to quite the same extent (or, at least, not in quite the same way) as usual.
Is that likely to happen? Not so much. And any hopes of Gore and/or Patino streaking to the majors in 2020 likely went out the window when the coronavirus arrived, eliminating the potential for a typical minor-league season. That robs another upside scenario. Still, the Padres’ rotation is a particularly interesting one to watch … or, it will be if and when we finally get ballgames rolling.
Wilmer’s Tears: The Butterfly Effects Of A Collapsed Trade
Wilmer Flores cried. It was the eighth inning, and the Mets were trailing the Padres by five runs. The non-waiver trade deadline was 36 hours away, and the only organization he’d ever known had agreed to trade him and teammate Zack Wheeler to the Brewers in exchange for two-time All-Star Carlos Gomez. The 23-year-old Flores learned of the reported agreement between innings … but he was left in the game to hit in the seventh inning … and to return to the field to play second base in the top half of the eighth.
In a whirlwind span of 15 to 30 minutes, Flores went from being traded to staying put among friends and teammates; the Mets had backed out of the reportedly agreed-upon trade once talks progressed to medical reviews. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported that an issue with Gomez’s hip and perhaps some hesitance over Wheeler, who was on the mend from Tommy John surgery at the time, had torpedoed the deal.
Two nights later, with the deadline behind him, Flores pumped his fist as he rounded first base and thumped the Mets logo across his chest as he approached home plate after hitting one of the most emotional walk-off home runs in recent memory. It was the last standing ovation in a day that saw Mets fans rise to their feet to embrace Flores on multiple other occasions. Flores went on to have a fine Mets career, calling Citi Field home up through the 2018 season. He’ll always hold a special place in the hearts of most Mets fans.
The memory of that unusual and emotional scene, however, is only the surface of a much more layered “what if” scenario. If the Mets had gone through with that trade, the ripple effects would’ve radically altered the future of several teams and — in a more roundabout way — perhaps the very fabric of the game.
How so? Let’s examine:
The Mets
Imagine a world where the Mets weren’t issuing statements to the press about their highest-paid position player being injured in a freak wild boar accident. If the Mets had gone through with the Brewers trade, it’s quite possible that Yoenis Cespedes never would’ve played a game for them. The deal bringing Cespedes to Queens was a buzzer-beater just seconds before the deadline — not 48 hours after Flores’ outpouring forever endeared him to the Mets’ fanbase.
Cespedes was an absolute juggernaut for the Amazins down the stretch, fueling their torrid finish to the season with an outstanding .287/.337/.604 with 17 home runs in just 57 regular-season games. Mets fans clamored for the then-Sandy-Alderson-led front office to re-sign the slugger. While he initially looked to be outside their price range, Cespedes didn’t see his market develop the way he’d hoped and ultimately opted for a compromise deal that promised him $75MM over three years but came with opt-outs after years one and two. Following a terrific 2016 season, Cespedes indeed opted out, and the two sides brokered a more concrete four-year, $110MM pact covering the 2017-20 seasons.
But what if the club had acquired Gomez on July 30? Curtis Granderson was productive in right field. Juan Lagares was a world-beating defensive center fielder even if his bat was characteristically flimsy. Michael Cuddyer was still on the roster, and a top prospect named Michael Conforto had made his MLB debut just days earlier, on July 24. With Gomez added to that bunch, would the Mets have gone through with Cespedes trade? You can argue there was still room — put Gomez in center, Cespedes in left and use Lagares off the bench — but the urgency obviously would’ve been lessened and the Mets surely would’ve been more protective of their prospect assets. And without that magical stretch run erased from history and Gomez signed through 2016, the Mets’ motivation to sign Cespedes would’ve likely been wiped out.
Furthermore, with Cespedes then sure to have been traded elsewhere, might the pitcher they traded to Detroit have instead won a Rookie of the Year Award in New York? It’s impossible to say, but dropping Michael Fulmer into the mix of quality Mets arms in place of Wheeler would’ve maintained their enviable stash of arms for a longer time. Fulmer, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey (prior to his regression), Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz is clearly a talented enough group on which to build a contending staff. And the “what ifs” only continue if you stop to wonder what precise course Fulmer’s career would’ve taken a different setting.
The Tigers
Speaking of Fulmer, well, Tigers fans wouldn’t be left to wonder whether the club should’ve traded him prior to all of his injury troubles. Fulmer had a masterful rookie season but has since undergone an ulnar nerve transposition procedure, Tommy John surgery and knee surgery. They could’ve pulled the trigger on a trade for him early in his big league tenure, but doing so would’ve meant trading four-plus years of control over the right-hander. Tigers fans can voice frustration with the benefit of hindsight, but trades of quality, established starters with that much club control remaining are of the utmost rarity.
It’s likely that Cespedes would’ve been moved elsewhere. The Astros, Orioles, Giants and Pirates were among the teams on the hunt for outfield upgrades that trade deadline, and then-Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski was committed to a rare sell-off, evidenced not only by the Cespedes swap but the David Price blockbuster with the Blue Jays. If you want to get truly hypothetical, though, let’s say no Cespedes trade materializes. …Would late owner Mike Ilitch still have moved on from Dombrowski shortly after the trade deadline? Would Dombrowski ever have ended up in Boston?
The Brewers
Sayonara, Josh Hader. In this hypothetical world, you were never a Brewer, because Gomez was traded for Wheeler and Flores. Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress surely could’ve formed a potent back-of-the-pen duo while their peaks overlapped, but the three-headed monster that propelled the team to the 2018 NLCS would never have come to be. Hader would’ve been dominating in Houston or elsewhere, depending on whether the Astros traded him. Could a Wheeler-fronted rotation have made up for his absence?
The ripple effect doesn’t stop there. Also coming to Milwaukee in the Astros swap that did happen were Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana and Adrian Houser. Phillips was flipped for Mike Moustakas in 2018, so without his presence in Milwaukee, who knows whether Moose would’ve been acquired via trade or subsequently re-signed in the winter? Santana’s 30-dinger season in 2017 doesn’t happen, nor do the Brewers eventually trade him for Ben Gamel. Houser, meanwhile, doesn’t show promise of a late-blooming breakout with the ’19 Brewers, for whom he turned in 111 1/3 innings of 3.72 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 9.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 53.4% grounder rate. The Brewers’ 2020 rotation is short another arm in that instance, as Wheeler still would’ve been a free agent, barring an extension.
Of course, the Brew Crew would’ve enjoyed Wheeler’s renaissance since he reemerged from arm troubles. And that brings us to…
The Astros
The craziest part of this entire butterfly effect isn’t that Josh Hader might’ve been closing out games for Houston. In fact, it doesn’t involve Hader or Gomez at all. It’s that the other player traded to the Astros alongside Gomez in exchange for Hader, Phillips, Santana and Houser was none other than right-hander Mike Fiers. Fiers joined the Houston rotation, promptly threw a no-hitter in his fourth outing, made 67 starts for the ‘Stros over the next two and a half seasons … and ultimately proved to be the whistleblower who outed a sign-stealing scandal that led to the firing of manager A.J. Hinch and president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow.
Perhaps the Astros were enamored of Fiers enough that they’d have found a way to acquire him from Milwaukee in a different swap. But it’s eminently plausible that had the Wheeler/Flores/Gomez trade between Milwaukee and New York gone through, we’d still have no firm knowledge of the Astros’ nefarious scheme. True, we might’ve had some inkling of wrongdoing; Jeff Passan, after all, reported for Yahoo back in 2017 that two players told him they believed Houston had banged on a trash can to convey signs. Athletics GM David Forst has acknowledged asking the league to investigate the Astros for improper use of technology. But without the smoking gun that was Fiers’ testimony, the league was either unable or unmotivated to bring the scandal to public light.
Peeling the onion back further — imagine if Hader had become every bit as dominant in Houston as he did in Milwaukee. Would the Astros have ever acquired Roberto Osuna to shut down games? Would since-fired assistant GM Brandon Taubman’s belligerent locker room taunting ever have led to his dismissal? Would the Astros have libeled Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein, calling her report of Taubman’s actions “misleading and completely irresponsible” before accusing her of attempting to “fabricate a story where one does not exist”?
To be clear: the Astros’ scandals reflect the indefensible choices of many individuals associated with the organization, for which they’re fully responsible collectively and individually. But the counter-factual scenarios do at least suggest that these matters might have occurred and/or been brought to light in quite different ways.
The Red Sox
Depending on the previous Dombrowski question I raised, who knows what state the front office would be in? We do know, definitively, that without the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal coming to light last fall, Alex Cora would not have been fired as the team’s manager. Ron Roenicke would still be his bench coach.
All that brings us back to…
The Mets
Carlos Beltran‘s debut as the Mets’ manager would’ve been delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but it wouldn’t have been outright wiped out of existence by virtue of his own involvement in the Astros scandal. Luis Rojas would be a quality control coach and not a big league manager.
Whether the Mets would’ve been better off in the long run with Gomez and Fulmer in the organization as opposed to Wheeler, Flores and Cespedes is debatable. Cespedes was again their best hitter in 2016 when the club secured a Wild Card postseason berth, but they were unable to advance beyond that initial round, falling to the Giants. The subsequent four-year deal has been a disaster. Cespedes has been extremely productive when on the field, but he of course hasn’t been on the field much. He’s played 119 games through the first three seasons of that deal and agreed to have his contract restructured this winter after the surreal wild boar injury.
Wheeler didn’t pitch again until 2017 and wasn’t very good that year. But his 2018-19 seasons were strong, as he posted a combined 3.65 ERA in 377 1/3 innings with a strikeout per frame and a total of roughly eight wins above replacement. The Mets didn’t make the postseason either year, though, and they’re left with a draft pick to show for their decision to hang onto him.
Flores hit .272/.317/.409 after the trade-that-wasn’t, taking another 1275 plate appearances as a Met before signing with the D-backs in free agency in the 2018-19 offseason and then inking a two-year deal with the Giant this past winter.
Adding Gomez in 2015 probably wouldn’t have cost the Mets the division — they won the NL East by seven games — but it’d have made things much closer. He’d already seen his 2013-14 All-Star form begin to fade, and his production worsened following his eventual trade to Houston. In 2016, Gomez played so poorly with the Astros that they simply released him in mid-August. A late surge with the Rangers served to remind that Gomez was still talented, so perhaps had he never gone to Houston in the first place, he could’ve remained a solid bat — but he was never going to hit at Cespedes’ level.
Fulmer, meanwhile, would still be controlled by the Mets through at least 2022 — if not 2023 (depending on when they promoted him). Virtually every prominent Mets starter has had Tommy John surgery in recent years (all of deGrom, Harvey, Wheeler, Matz and now Syndergaard), and it’s likely that Fulmer would’ve still eventually required his own surgery. But the other injuries that have dogged him and the timing of the procedure can’t be known. Marcus Stroman, acquired last July as an advance means of “replacing” Wheeler once it was clear an extension wasn’t happening, might not be a Met. Anthony Kay, traded in that deal, could be projected in the 2020 rotation.
The exact manner in which rosters would’ve been impacted can be speculated upon ad nauseam, but will never be known to any real degree of confidence. It doesn’t seem like the Mets cost themselves any playoff opportunities, but the effects of that near-trade were extremely broad reaching — and it seems certain that without Fiers being traded to Houston, we’d still be lauding the 2017 Astros as the most dominant team in recent history (at least until the shocking news emerged in some other manner).
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mike Clevinger: The One That Got Away From The Halos
The post-trade-deadline trades of yore can’t happen anymore under baseball’s current rules. That’s a shame in some respects, because the August revocable waiver trade period delivered some doozies over the years. Here’s a story about one of them …
Back in 2014, the Angels were sprinting towards an AL West title and looking to bolster their bullpen. GM Jerry Dipoto had already swung a series of deals: he acquired closer Huston Street, nabbed lefty setup man Joe Thatcher, made a memorable change of scenery deal to get Jason Grilli for Ernesto Frieri, and even took a flier on Rich Hill (who never contributed in Anaheim).
The Street swap — the biggest of these moves — took place two weeks before the trade deadline. Dipoto was understandably still itching to improve a talented roster and ensure that the team was fully loaded for the postseason when an interesting opportunity arose in early August …
Vinnie Pestano was on the outs with the Indians. He was excellent in 2011 and 2012 but had stumbled in the ensuing two seasons. Still, a glance at his 2014 numbers shows why the Halos perked up when they saw his name scroll across the waiver wire.
Pestano, then 29, had a 13:1 K/BB ratio in nine MLB innings that year — even if he also allowed five earned runs. And in his 30 1/3 Triple-A frames, he owned a 1.78 ERA with 37 strikeouts against a dozen walks. It didn’t hurt that Pestano was earning just $975K and could be controlled through 2017.
The Indians hadn’t put Pestano on revocable waivers with intentions of letting him go for nothing. When the Angels were awarded the claim, they had to work out a deal to bring Pestano over from Cleveland.
It turned out that Dipoto had managed to make the above-noted additions without sacrificing any prospects who ended up turning out to be big losses over the long haul. That wasn’t so with the Pestano move, which cost a little-known prospect by the name of Mike Clevinger.
At the time, the 2011 fourth-rounder was on the radar but hardly an elite prospect. He was still in the middle of his first full professional season, having been sidelined for much of 2012-13 owing to Tommy John surgery. And though he had shown quite well at the Class A level to open the 2014 campaign, Clevinger had only managed a 5.37 ERA over his 55 1/3 High-A frames.
Clevinger didn’t exactly hit the ground running with the Cleveland organization, as he struggled through just five more High-A appearances after arriving. He really popped in 2015, when he punished Double-A hitters to the tune of a 2.73 ERA in 158 innings. Still, as the 2016 season approached, the idea of a Jacob deGrom career path was mostly floated because the two hurlers both feature flowing locks.
While he wasn’t then and never would be a top-100 sort of prospect, that was also true of deGrom. And as it turned out, Clevinger has tracked a lot more closely to the Mets star than anyone could’ve seriously predicted.
Clevinger went through some rookie struggles but produced very good results in 2017 and 2018. Last year, he took an ace turn. Though he missed a significant stretch owing to a teres major muscle strain, Clevinger produced monster numbers when healthy. Over 126 innings, he worked to a 2.71 ERA with 12.1 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9.
While he suffered some more poor fortune with a meniscus tear this spring, that’s likely not to impact the future (particularly since he’s rehabbing while the season is on hold). Suffice to say that Clevinger is one of the game’s more valuable pitching commodities, as he’s just entering his first of three arbitration-eligible seasons. (He’ll earn $4.1MM.)
Ironically enough, the Angels showed trade interest in Clevinger this spring … with the Indians reportedly responding by asking about elite prospect Jo Adell. The Halos would surely rather not have traded him away in the first place. Pestano did make a dozen strong appearances down the stretch in 2014, with two more in the team’s unsuccessful ALDS appearance, but he washed out in 2015 and hasn’t been seen in the majors since. It’s yet another reminder that sometimes those under-the-radar deals end up being quite important over the long haul.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.










