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Cubs Activate Cody Bellinger, Option Matt Mervis

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The Cubs reinstated Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list this afternoon. Highly-touted first baseman Matt Mervis was optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding transaction.

Bellinger is in the lineup tonight against Pittsburgh righty Johan Oviedo, hitting sixth and playing first base. It’s his first start there in two years. Bellinger came up as a first baseman but moved primarily to the outfield by 2019, as the Dodgers (and subsequently Chicago) wanted to take advantage of his elite athleticism. Bellinger has been a very good defensive outfielder but he’ll break back in at first base after losing nearly a month to a left knee contusion.

Manager David Ross suggested as much earlier this week. Sprinting is still causing Bellinger some issues, and while the Cubs feel he’s sufficiently healthy to return to the diamond, they’ll try to ease the stress by putting him at a less demanding position. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters yesterday the club is hopeful of getting Bellinger back in the outfield at some point but didn’t specify a timeline (relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune).

Bellinger will try to pick up where he left off before the injury. The former MVP has been enjoying something of a bounceback season in Chicago. He’s hitting .271/.343/.493 over 163 trips to the plate. That’s not peak form but far better than his results from his final two seasons in Los Angeles, largely attributable to him cutting his strikeout rate from around 27% to 19% this year.

His return displaces Mervis, who heads back to the minors for the first time since he was called up on May 5. The Duke product tore up minor league pitching in 2022 and started this season with a .286/.402/.560 showing in Triple-A. He couldn’t carry that success over in his first look at big league arms. Mervis hit .167/.242/.289 over his initial 27 MLB games, striking out in 32 of his 99 trips to the plate.

There’s little sense for the Cubs in relegating him to a bench role, as he’s still a potential key offensive piece for the organization moving forward. With Bellinger at first base and Chicago using a rotation at designated hitter — Trey Mancini, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni and Ian Happ have split the last five starts there — the clearest path for Mervis to get consistent reps was by sending him back to Iowa.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 2: Marlins Cash In Marte

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5, No. 4 and No. 3. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 2…

The Marlins and Starling Marte at one point both hoped the dynamic outfielder would spend the final years of his career in Miami. Marte, whom the Fish acquired from the D-backs at the 2020 trade deadline when he had a season and a half of club control remaining, immediately took a liking to South Beach and voiced a desire to remain there long-term. A then-32-year-old Marte was willing to talk extension during the season in 2021, and the two parties headed into the All-Star break in the midst of extension negotiations.

Starling Marte | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsReporting from Craig Mish, Jordan McPherson and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald at the time indicated that Marte was seeking a four-year extension offer that would cover his age-33 through age-36 seasons — a reasonable request for a player of his caliber. Marte entered that year’s All-Star break with a strong .271/.382/.411 batting line, after all, and was a career .287/.341/.450 hitter entering that 2021 campaign.

The Marlins said all the right things publicly about wanting to keep Marte, but Mish and McPherson reported after the All-Star break that the team had topped out on a three-year offer worth less than $40MM. That type of offer was never going to get a deal done — Marte wound up signing a four-year, $78MM deal in free agency in the offseason, remember — and it was a bit surprising the Fish even put it out there. Regardless, the focus shifted to finding a trade partner for Marte, and in the end, things could hardly have worked out better for Miami.

Marte, as one would expect, quickly became a hot commodity on the trade market once it became clear that an extension in Miami wasn’t happening. The Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Astros were among the teams showing interest, and San Francisco in particular appeared to be a strong on-paper fit. There was never any talk about the Athletics harboring interest in Marte, and their outfield appeared largely set anyhow — at least from the outside looking in. Just days after the trade deadline, however, Ramon Laureano was hit with an 80-game PED ban. He’d almost certainly already gone through the appeals process by that point, so there’s a chance the A’s had a strong inkling they’d need some outfield help by the time they swung their July 28 deal for Marte.

Regardless of the circumstances that led to the trade, it was a legitimate shocker. There’d been virtually nothing to link the two teams prior to the deal, and a low-payroll club like the A’s taking on an expensive rental player didn’t seem plausible. Miami, however, kicked in $4MM to help cover the remainder of Marte’s salary. Owner Bruce Sherman was likely plenty OK with doing so, given the return.

Jesus Luzardo entered the 2020 season as the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. He had a decent but not elite rookie campaign during the pandemic-shortened 2020 sprint (4.12 ERA in 59 innings). Paired with a strong showing during his 12-inning cup of coffee as a 21-year-old late in the 2019 season, he looked ready for primetime and entered the ’21 season regarded as a breakout candidate who could soon front Oakland’s rotation.

Things didn’t pan out that way. Luzardo was rocked for a 5.79 ERA through his first six starts and was placed on the injured list after sustaining a hairline fracture in his left pinkie. The injury, one of the more bizarre IL trips in recent memory, occurred after Luzardo hit his hand on a desk while playing video games. The lefty apologized to the team and fans after the fact, calling the injury “stupid” and “immature.” Luzardo returned a month later, this time pitching out of the bullpen, and allowed 11 runs in 10 innings before being optioned to stretch back out as a starter.

Embarrassing injury aside, the future still seemed plenty bright for Luzardo, even with a poor 38 innings to begin his 2021 season. Perhaps the video game incident contributed to the forthcoming decision. Perhaps the A’s just didn’t feel Luzardo would live up to his prospect status. Or, more likely, perhaps vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst knew full-well what was coming in the offseason — massive payroll cuts from ownership and the inevitable teardown of a roster that won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019 — and simply felt they needed to push all-in for a ring in 2021.

The 56-46 Athletics traded Luzardo, who still had five years of club control remaining, to the Marlins in order to acquire the final two-plus months of Marte’s contract before he reached free agency.

I used the term “deadline-season stunner” at the time of the trade and still feel that holds up. It’s simply rare for an MLB-ready pitcher with this much promise and this much club control to be moved at all — let alone for a two-month rental. That the acquiring team was a small-market, low-payroll club like the A’s and hadn’t been linked to Marte whatsoever only added to the surprise. In all likelihood, this trade coming together required a perfect storm: the looming PED ban for Laureano, the regrettable freak injury for Luzardo early in the season, and career years/breakouts from several A’s pitchers (Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt, Cole Irvin, James Kaprielian) that all made Luzardo feel a bit more expendable.

In an all too common refrain for the tortured Oakland fanbase these days, the trade hasn’t worked out for the A’s. Granted, Marte was brilliant in green and gold, hitting .316/.359/.466 with five homers, 16 doubles, a pair of triples and a hefty 25 steals in just 56 games. The Athletics couldn’t have realistically asked for much more than that, but the rest of the team didn’t hold up well enough to even reach the postseason.

The A’s still finished 10 games over .500, but Oakland lost nine of its final 13 games, finishing third place in the AL West and winding up five games out in the AL Wild Card chase. Marte reached free agency and was ineligible for a qualifying offer by virtue of that midseason trade. Oakland received no compensation for his departure, and ownership gutted payroll as the front office embarked on yet another rebuild.

Down in Miami, things got out to a rocky start as well. Luzardo’s velocity was down a bit in a dozen post-trade starts, and he posted a 6.44 ERA with the Marlins overall in his first run with the club. It wasn’t a great start.

Things took a sharp turn in Miami’s favor the following season. Luzardo, born in Peru but raised in Florida, looked far more comfortable in the first full season of his homecoming. A forearm injury limited him to 100 1/3 innings, but he broke out with a 3.32 ERA, a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate — all while displaying a career-best 96.4 mph average on his heater. His swinging-strike and opponent chase rates were the highest of his career, and he gave up less hard contact than he had during his ugly 2021 campaign.

The Marlins received trade interest in Luzardo over the winter and surely could’ve moved him for a haul of young talent if they’d preferred, but the Fish held onto the still just 25-year-old lefty and now find themselves in the running for a postseason berth. Miami has won eight of ten games and is just three and a half games behind the division-leading Braves in the NL East. If the season ended today, the Fish would land the National League’s second Wild Card spot.

Luzardo has been a key part of that, although his recent six-run clunker did mark his third start of five or more runs allowed this year. Even with that trio of rough outings, Luzardo has a 4.17 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate are much more encouraging, however. Like many pitchers on a Marlins club that is playing multiple players out of position, Luzardo’s been hampered by his defense (.335 BABIP). Fielding-independent metrics like FIP and SIERA both peg him at 3.58 so far this season.

Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Luzardo has given the Marlins 32 starts and 178 innings of 3.69 ERA ball with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He’s not only regained any velocity that dipped in 2021 but is now averaging a career-high 96.8 mph on his heater. Luzardo’s swinging-strike and chase rates both suggest there’s the potential for even more strikeouts. Even if his results never catch up to the strong marks he’s receiving from fielding-independent numbers, the 2021-22 version of Luzardo is already a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. He may not be an “ace,” and fans can debate whether he’s more of a “No. 2” or “No. 3” type starter, but he’s solidified himself as an above-average starter with upside for more.

The Marlins control Luzardo for three more years beyond the current season. He reached arbitration as a Super Two player this past winter and is already earning $2.45MM. As a Scott Boras client, an extension isn’t likely, so expect Luzardo’s name to pop up in trade rumors again as he inches closer to free agency. Even by Miami payroll standards, he’s a bargain in 2023 and will be again in 2024, so a trade in the short-term doesn’t seem likely. For now, he’ll continue slotting into the rotation of a surprisingly competitive Miami club that could enter the deadline as a buyer if it can maintain any semblance of its current pace.

As for the A’s, they’re on the opposite end of the spectrum, with their primary 2023 goal at this point being to avoid the worst record in big league history. It’s hard to blame the Oakland front office for going all in and trading Luzardo, knowing the fire sale was coming, but the A’s would be a lot less futile with him in the rotation. Or, at the very least, the farm system would likely be stronger with the influx of young talent they could’ve acquired by putting him on the market as part of the rebuild this past offseason.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies Select Jorge Alfaro, Designate Blair Calvo For Assignment

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The Rockies announced today that they have selected the contract of catcher Jorge Alfaro. Fellow backstop Brian Serven was optioned in a corresponding move. In order to open a spot for Alfaro on the 40-man, right-hander Blair Calvo was designated for assignment.

Alfaro, 30, makes it back to the big leagues for the first time this year. He has appeared in each of the past seven major league seasons but had to settle for a minor league deal with the Red Sox this winter. He was crushing for their Triple-A team, hitting .320/.366/.520 through 191 plate appearances, but the Sox never called him up. Alfaro triggered an opt-out in his contract and the club released him rather than giving him a roster spot.

He then signed another minor league deal, landing with the Rockies just five days ago. He played three games for their Triple-A club and hit .357/.357/.571 in that brief sample before getting called up. That kind of production would be welcome on any club, but it’s no guarantee Alfaro can provide it. He has often hit well in the minors, which has led to many big league opportunities over the years, as the Phillies, Marlins, Padres and now Rockies have all had him on their respective rosters at various points. But in 478 career games in the majors, he’s hit just .256/.305/.396 for a wRC+ of 89.

Alfaro has generally been considered a bat-first catcher and has tallied a cumulative -17 Defensive Runs Saved thus far in his career. Teams could surely tolerate a bit of that if Alfaro were producing with the bat, but he’s hasn’t been able to manage that quite yet.

Despite his tepid results in the big leagues thus far, it’s not surprising that the Rockies are willing to give him a shot. He’s been hitting very well in the minors this year and is a former top 100 prospect. They already have a couple of catchers on the roster in Elias Díaz and Austin Wynns but have been going with a three-catcher setup of late. Serven was recalled a couple of days ago as Díaz was dealing with a minor injury. Díaz sat out Sunday’s game but returned to the lineup for the next three contests.

Díaz is having a solid season, hitting .295/.351/.457 for a 105 wRC+ and is unlikely to be usurped as long as he stays healthy. Perhaps Alfaro will factor into the designated hitter mix, where the club doesn’t really have an everyday option now that Charlie Blackmon is on the injured list. Since he’s been gone, Díaz, Randal Grichuk and Jurickson Profar have each been given starts as the DH. If both Díaz and Alfaro were in the lineup, they would still have Wynns on hand as a safety net in the event of an injury.

The club will surely be hoping that Alfaro can give a boost to their lineup but he could also wind up as a summer trade chip if this is the year he finally puts it together in the majors. The Rockies have one of the worst records in the National League at 29-41 and could find themselves in position to sell. Since Alfaro is scheduled for free agency again this winter, he would be a logical candidate for such a move.

In order to take a shot on Alfaro, the Rockies are risking losing Calvo. Now 27 years old, he was drafted by the club in the 23rd round in 2019. Last year, he tossed 35 relief innings in Double-A with a 3.09 ERA, 32.2% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 57.6% ground ball rate. The club added him to the roster in November to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Unfortunately, his results haven’t been as strong this year, though he did throw one scoreless inning in his major league debut. The rest of the year has been spent at Triple-A, where he has a 7.43 ERA through 23 innings. There’s probably a bit of bad luck in there, as he has a .413 batting average on balls in play and 55.3% strand rate. His peripherals have gone in the wrong direction compared to last year, though not by too much, as he’s struck out 28.3% of opponents while walking 8.8% and getting grounders on 47.6% of balls in play.

Though his 5.02 FIP is much nicer than this ERA, he’s nonetheless lost his roster spot. The Rockies will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. In the event that he clears, he would not have the right to elect free agency since he has neither a previous career outright nor three years of service time.

Central Notes: Contreras, Naughton, Buxton

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The Pirates recently moved right-hander Roansy Contreras to the bullpen, but he’s hoping to follow in the footsteps of his teammate Mitch Keller and return to the rotation stronger than ever. “I want to find a point where I feel comfortable again,” Contreras said, with major league coach Stephen Morales translating to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “I’m going to do my best out of the bullpen, but I feel like I belong in the starting rotation. I’m going to do my best to get back to it.”

Keller was a second-round pick and top 100 prospect but struggled in his first few seasons in the majors, having a 6.02 ERA by the end of 2021. Last year, he had a 6.61 ERA in the middle of May when he was moved to the bullpen. He made just a couple of relief appearances before being put back in the rotation and eventually posted a 3.22 ERA as a starter the rest of the way. He now has a 3.41 ERA for the Bucs here in 2023.

Contreras was also a top 100 guy on his way up through the minors and seemed to solidify himself last year when he posted a 3.79 ERA over 95 innings. However, he’s taken a step back here in 2023 with a 6.55 ERA in 11 starts and a couple of relief appearances. There’s probably a bit of bad luck in there, considering his .328 batting average on balls in play and 61.3% strand rate, but his 17.2% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate are both worse than last year’s marks of 21.1% and 9.6%.

The Pirates are barely above .500 at 34-32 but that’s enough for first place in the National League Central at the moment. Their current rotation consists of Keller, Rich Hill, Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo and the recently-recalled Osvaldo Bido. If Contreras could turn things around, it would be a huge help for their postseason push, especially with other options like Vince Velasquez, Mike Burrows and JT Brubaker out for the year. There would also be long-term benefits to the Bucs, since Contreras isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.

Some other notes from the Central divisions…

  • Cardinals left-hander Packy Naughton has been on the injured list for most of the season, making just four appearances in early April before a left forearm strain put him on the shelf. He recently began a rehab assignment but was still experiencing pain. Now he’s traveling to Texas to get a second opinion and it seems season-ending surgery is on the table, per John Denton of MLB.com. Denton relays that Tommy John surgery could still be avoided but it’s nonetheless an ominous development for Naughton and the Cards that it’s being considered, particularly at this time of year. Given the typical recovery period of 14 to 18 months, Tommy John surgery would not only wipe out the rest of 2023 for Naughton but also put his 2024 in jeopardy. In 59 2/3 career innings, he has a 4.98 ERA.
  • The Twins reinstated Byron Buxton from the injured list today, optioning outfielder Trevor Larnach in a corresponding move. Buxton has long been one of the most talented athletes in the sport but has struggled to stay healthy. He managed to play 140 games in 2017 but hasn’t topped 92 contests in any subsequent season. The Twins have kept him exclusively in the designated hitter slot this year in an attempt to reduce the chance of injury. That plan hit a snag a couple weeks ago when Buxton took a pitch from Tanner Bibee in the ribs. He landed on the IL due to a contusion but is now back after a brief absence. He’s hitting .220/.325/.445 so far this year for a 114 wRC+, stealing six bases in 50 games.

White Sox Place Yoán Moncada On IL, Select Zach Remillard

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3:05pm: The White Sox have now officially announced these moves.

2:40pm: The White Sox are going to place third baseman Yoán Moncada on the injured list, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Infielder Zach Remillard will have his contract selected to take Moncada’s place on the active roster. Remillard isn’t currently on the 40-man but the club has a couple of vacancies there and won’t need to make another corresponding move.

Moncada sat out yesterday’s game due to an ongoing back issue that has been bothering him this year, caused by a protruding disc touching a nerve. He already missed close to a month of this season, landing on the IL in mid-April and returning in mid-May. He was hitting .308/.325/.564 through his first nine games but has slashed just .202/.262/.293 since returning from that IL stint. Now that he’s going back on the shelf, it seems fair to wonder if it’s continued bothering him for the past month.

At this point, it’s unclear how long he’ll be out or what the next steps will be, but it’s likely that Jake Burger will take over at the hot corner. He was able to take advantage of extra playing time at third when Moncada first when on the IL and is now hitting .250/.299/.600 for the year. He’s striking out in 31.6% of his plate appearances but has 15 home runs in 50 games. Since Moncada came off the injured list, he’s been spending some time as the designated hitter and even got some brief looks at first and second base. But with Andrew Vaughn the primary option at first and Elvis Andrus at second, the newly-opened third base spot is a more natural fit for him.

The Sox will give themselves an extra bench option by selecting Remillard, with the 29-year-old now finding himself on a major league roster for the first time. A 10th round pick of the Sox back in 2016, he has been climbing the rungs of the minor league ladder since then. He reached free agency after 2022 but re-signed with the Sox on a minor league deal. He was first promoted to Triple-A in May of 2021 and has played 272 games at that level. His 1,047 plate appearances there have resulted in a .244/.340/.376 batting line. He also stole 42 bases in that time while playing all seven of the non-battery positions in the field, which should allow him to serve as a versatile bench piece for the Sox. He’ll be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

NL East Notes: Chavez, Ridings, Doolittle

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The Braves dodged a bullet yesterday when righty Jesse Chavez was hit in the leg by a comebacker and helped off the field, as initial x-rays did not reveal a fracture. The team originally believed Chavez would be able to avoid an IL stint entirely, that didn’t prove to be the case. Atlanta placed Chavez on the 15-day injured list, per a club announcement, and recalled right-hander Ben Heller from Triple-A Gwinnett in his place. Losing Chavez even just for two weeks or so will sting. The 39-year-old has been outstanding for Atlanta, pitching to a 1.55 ERA with a career-best 30.8% strikeout rate against a 7.7% walk rate. Chavez has already picked up a save and a dozen holds for the Braves, and he was on an 11-inning scoreless streak prior to his injury.

A few more notes from the NL East…

  • The Mets announced Thursday that they’ve reinstated right-hander Stephen Ridings from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A Syracuse. The move fills a spot on the team’s 40-man roster, increasing their count from 37 to 38 players. Ridings, 27, has yet to throw a pitch for the Mets, spending the entire season to date on the injured list due to a lat strain. The Mets claimed the right-hander off waivers from the Yankees back in mid-November, just before teams set their rosters in advance of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. Shoulder troubles derailed Ridings’ 2022 season, but he posted a 1.24 ERA and 42-to-4 K/BB ratio in 29 innings between High-A and Double-A in the Yankees system back in 2021.
  • Veteran lefty Sean Doolittle was transferred from the Nationals’ Double-A affiliate to their Triple-A club Thursday, signaling that he’s completed his rehab work and is now considered fully healthy. The 36-year-old Doolittle, who signed a minor league deal with the Nats over the winter, is being formally reinstated from the injured list and will try to pitch his way back into the Majors with a strong showing in Rochester. Doolittle allowed three runs and posted a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio in seven rehab frames between Class-A and Double-A. The lefty pitched just 5 1/3 frames for the Nats in 2022 before requiring an internal brace procedure in his elbow over the summer.

Infield Upgrades Should Be A Deadline Focus For Marlins

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The Marlins held onto a 4-1 win over the Mariners in dramatic fashion yesterday, pushing them to 38-31. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re 4 1/2 back of the Braves in the NL East but multiple games clear of the Phillies and Mets for second place in the division.

It’s a start that’ll surprise some onlookers. The Marlins are no longer rebuilding and fully intended to be competitive, but they were generally perceived as the fourth-best team in a strong division. While unimpressive starts from Philadelphia and New York have certainly helped, Miami is seven games above .500 and trending towards deadline season as a buyer.

The Marlins are already looking into ways to upgrade behind the plate. That’s understandable; neither Nick Fortes nor Jacob Stallings has done enough to deter the front office from exploring upgrades. There haven’t yet been any reports about Miami gauging the infield market, though that also figures to be a priority for GM Kim Ng and her front office.

Miami aggressively reshaped their infield over the offseason. The Fish went into the winter looking to add high-contact hitters to the lineup. They actualized that in the infield, swapping Pablo López (and a couple prospects) to the Twins for Luis Arraez while adding Jean Segura and Yuli Gurriel via free agency.

Arraez’s acquisition and return to second base pushed Jazz Chisholm to center field. Segura was signed to play third base. Brian Anderson had already been non-tendered, so Segura displaced utility types Joey Wendle and Jon Berti at the hot corner. At the end of the winter, Miami traded clubhouse leader Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers for upper minors infielder Jacob Amaya and named Wendle their new starting shortstop. First baseman Garrett Cooper was the only Miami infielder to start at the same position on Opening Day for the second straight season.

Any time a team makes that many moves, there are going to be mixed results. The contrast in the Marlins’ infield is particularly stark, though. Arraez has been everything the Fish could’ve hoped for. He’s well on his way to another batting title, with a .378/.431/.461 line that more than compensates for concerns about his defensive chops at second base. The rest of the group has not performed up to expectations. There’s no greater question mark than Segura, who has been the worst everyday player in the majors.

The veteran infielder owns a .190/.259/.234 slash over his first 225 plate appearances in South Florida. While Segura has never been a prototypical power threat, he’s reached double digit homers in each of the last six full seasons. This year, he’s connected on just one longball. Among hitters with 200+ plate appearances, Segura has easily the lowest slugging percentage. (Alex Call is second from the bottom at .295.) He’s also last in on-base percentage and tops only Nick Maton and Kyle Schwarber in batting average.

That’s disastrous offense, and Miami’s gamble in moving Segura to a position with which he’s not familiar hasn’t panned out on that side of the ball either. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as five runs worse than the average third baseman through just over 500 innings. Statcast isn’t quite so harsh but has him two runs below par.

Combining league-worst hitting and below-average defense has Segura well below replacement level thus far. He’ll almost certainly improve his production. It’s hard to get any worse than his current line, and Segura’s pre-2023 track record was that of a solid regular. A .224 average on balls in play calls for some positive regression, so he should at least start hitting for a better average.

The complete lack of extra-base impact is a serious concern, however. Solid as the season has gone overall, Miami still isn’t an imposing offensive club.

Playing half their games in cavernous loanDepot Park admittedly isn’t doing the lineup any favors. Miami’s offseason focus was about improving the run production, though, trying to add more balance to a club that skewed so heavily to pitching and defense last year. Many of their moves actively weakened the run prevention to increase scoring. They relinquished López to bring in Arraez, moving Segura and Chisholm off their standard second base positions in the process. They parted with Rojas — a light-hitting, plus defensive shortstop — to shoehorn Wendle into the lineup at a position he’d never played regularly.

The offense is better, but not dramatically so. They’re tied for 25h in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, 18th in on-base percentage (.318) and 19th in slugging (.397). The Fish respectively finished in 28th, 24th, 27th and 28th in those categories last season. Arraez has driven the on-base jump, while the power spike is attributable to scorching starts from holdover outfielders Jorge Soler and Jesús Sánchez. Even with Arraez flirting with a .400 clip for a while, Miami’s infield has a bland .269/.326/.361 slash. As measured by wRC+, they’re 23rd in offensive production from their infielders.

Miami has weathered that so far. That’s in large part to a 17-5 record in one-run contests, allowing them to overcome a -30 run differential that’s above only those of the Rockies and Nationals in the Senior Circuit. The Fish aren’t going to apologize for those wins. They’re in the books, and they put the club right in the thick of a muddled NL playoff picture. Yet that kind of success in close games isn’t something Miami can bank on continuing all year. They’ll need the lineup to improve if they’re to ward off that regression.

Some of that will happen organically. Chisholm has been out a month with a foot injury. Ng recently told Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on their podcast that he’s likely still several weeks away, but a second-half return should be a boon to the offense. Cooper is a better hitter than this year’s .229/.268/.408 line would indicate. Sánchez is playing regularly now after missing a few weeks in May due to injury.

They’ll need to support that at the deadline, likely by bringing in a left side infielder. Curtailing Segura’s playing time a few months into a two-year, $17MM contract would be a tough pill to swallow, but it might be necessary for a team trying to hang onto a playoff spot.

Players like Jeimer Candelario, Jace Peterson and Patrick Wisdom should be available at the hot corner. There are fewer options at shortstop, though the White Sox could move Tim Anderson and the Cardinals would probably deal Paul DeJong. None of those players can carry a lineup (perhaps unless Anderson bounces back from a tough start), but they’d each provide manager Skip Schumaker some alternatives to continuing to plug Segura in every day.

This deadline season should be an exciting one for Marlins fans. Unless things fall apart within the next six weeks, they’re in position to add in hopes of bolstering a playoff push. Two decades removed from their most recent berth in a 162-game season, the front office shouldn’t hesitate to be aggressive, even if that means making the tough call to bench their biggest free agent pickup of this past offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #3: Jays Get An All-Star Slugger

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5 and No. 4. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 3…

The Blue Jays had made it as far as the ALCS in both 2015 and 2016 and were looking to compete again in 2017. The saw both José Bautista and Edwin Encarnación become free agents after 2016 but were able to re-sign Bautista. Encarnación got away, but they tried to replace him by signing Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce, while also fortifying the bullpen with signings of Joe Smith and J.P. Howell.

Unfortunately, the Jays couldn’t keep it going for a third straight year. By July 31, they were 49-57 and in last place in the American League East, nine games out in the division and seven games back in the Wild Card race. They decided to do some selling, trading Smith to Cleveland and also trading Francisco Liriano to Houston.

Liriano, 33 at that time, had just been acquired by the Jays from the Pirates in a deadline deal one year earlier. It was essentially a salary dump for the Bucs, as the Jays took on all of what remained of Liriano’s contract. The Pirates were grateful enough for that kindness that they included prospects Harold Ramírez and Reese McGuire in the deal, taking back only Drew Hutchison in return. Neither Ramírez or McGuire would establish themselves in the majors with the Jays, though they have each now done so for AL East rivals. Liriano had a 5.46 ERA going into that trade but finished the season strong, posting a 2.92 ERA with the Jays and helping them get into the playoffs.

However, he was struggling again in 2017, as he had a 5.88 ERA through 18 starts with Toronto. He was still enjoying good results against lefties, as they had hit just .230/.254/.361 against him on the year. The Astros decided to take a shot on grabbing Liriano and converting him into a left-on-left relief specialist, despite the fact that he had worked almost exclusively as a starter in his career.

Liriano was making $13MM that year, with about $4.48MM still remaining to be paid out at the time of the deal. That would have been a fine salary for a solid rotation member but was on the high side for the specialized role the Astros envisioned. The Jays offset some of that by taking on outfielder Nori Aoki, who was making $5.5MM that year. But the real get for the Jays was young outfielder Teoscar Hernández.

For the Astros, Liriano made 20 relief appearances down the stretch with a 4.40 ERA despite a 15.2% walk rate. He then made another five appearances in the postseason with a 3.86 ERA. The club emerged victorious and won their first ever World Series title, though that achievement is now marred by the revelations of their elaborate sign-stealing scheme.

For the Jays, they released Aoki less than a month after the deal, emphasizing that their real focus was Hernández. Just 24 years old at that time, he was considered one of Houston’s top 10 prospects and had already made his major league debut. He hadn’t yet established himself in the bigs, hitting just .230/.304/.420 in his first 113 plate appearances. However, he had always hit the minors and was slashing .279/.369/.485 in Triple-A at the time of the deal. The Astros had an outfield mix that consisted of George Springer, Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher, with prospect Kyle Tucker on the cusp of his debut, leaving Hernández somewhat blocked from regular playing time.

Teoscar HernandezThe Jays put Hernández into 26 games down the stretch that year, and he quickly showed his tremendous power potential, hitting eight home runs in that brief time. There were also some concerning elements, as he walked in only 6.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at a glaring 37.9% clip. Nonetheless, it was an encouraging showing for a young outfielder who had yet to show he could handle himself in the majors.

Hernandez took on a regular role in the Toronto outfield from there, and the first couple of seasons had mixed results, generally mirroring that late-2017 debut in Toronto. He hit 22 home runs in 2018 and 26 more the year after, but he also struck out in 32% of his plate appearances. His 8.7% walk rate was close to league average, but his overall batting line was .235/.304/.470. Despite the obvious power, the punchouts dragged his wRC+ down to 104 over that two-year span, indicating he was just a bit above average overall. He stole 11 bases in that time but his defensive metrics were poor.

The next three seasons would prove to be much better, however. From 2020 to 2022, he struck out in 27.2% of his trips to the plate, still above league average but a significant improvement on his previous work. He did that without sacrificing any power, launching 73 home runs in those two-plus seasons. His .283/.333/.519 line in that time translated to a 132 wRC+, putting him in the top 25 among all hitters in the league in that category. He earned Silver Slugger awards in both 2020 and 2021 and was an All-Star in the latter season. That coincided with the club’s return to contention, as Hernández slotted into the middle of the lineup alongside up-and-coming star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, helping the club reach the postseason in both 2020 and 2022.

Despite the great work at the plate, the defense continued to be subpar. Hernandez has career tallies of -23 Defensive Runs Saved, -23 Outs Above Average and a grade of -21 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Going into 2023, the Jays set out to be a better defensive club, trading away bat-first players like Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. while bringing in Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho. Hernández was flipped to the Mariners for pitchers Erik Swanson and Adam Macko.

Looked at on its own, the Liriano swap looks great for the Blue Jays. They traded an impending free agent pitcher who was struggling to a 5.88 ERA on the year, netting themselves a lineup regular who essentially played at a 30-homer-per-year pace for five seasons. When he had one year of club control remaining, they flipped him for a couple of pitchers that extended the benefits into the future. Swanson has become the setup man to closer Jordan Romano, posting a 2.56 ERA this year while earning 16 holds. He can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. Macko is struggling in High-A at the moment but is still just 22 years old. Looking back to the initial deal with the Pirates, the whole transaction tree looks even better as the club turned Hutchison into Liriano, then Hernandez and now Swanson/Macko.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox Notes: Crochet, Hendriks, Clevinger

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The White Sox have used flamethrowing lefty Garrett Crochet exclusively as a reliever to this point in his big league career, but the former No. 11 overall pick tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that he still has his sights set on an eventual rotation spot. Asked about the possibility of returning to a starting role down the road, Crochet acknowledged that it’s something that’s “definitely in the back of my mind” and that he “hopes” to eventually have that opportunity.

Any such transition isn’t likely to happen in 2023 after the lefty pitched just 54 1/3 innings in 2021 before missing the 2022 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The 6’6″ Crochet suggested that he’d be open to pitching in longer relief stints this season and building up his innings. Current ChiSox starters Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Mike Clevinger could all hit the open market this offseason. Giolito is a free agent at season’s end, while Clevinger has a mutual option (which are rarely exercised by both parties) and Lynn has an $18MM club option that feels pricey relative to his current struggles.

With a thin collection of pitching in the team’s system and virtually no high-end pitching prospects knocking on the door to the big leagues, moving Crochet into the rotation next season alongside Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech makes sense for the Sox. The looming trade deadline could bring about a shakeup on the pitching staff, with Giolito the likeliest to go in the event of a deadline sale. The asking price on both Cease and Kopech would surely be high, with both under club control through the 2025 season.

For now, Crochet is likely to remain in the ’pen, where he was recently joined by returning closer Liam Hendriks. The 34-year-old Hendriks’ return from a battle with non-Hodgkins lymphoma was one of the best moments of the season for baseball fans, though it was quickly followed by an IL stint due to inflammation in his pitching elbow.

Luckily, imaging on Hendriks’ elbow did not reveal any structural damage, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. Hendriks has already received a cortisone shot to help combat the inflammation, and he’ll likely receive a platelet-rich plasma injection as well. Hendriks concedes that he felt “constant pain” throughout each of his past three appearances, wondering aloud whether his still-recent chemotherapy treatments have made it more difficult to recover between appearances.

Hendriks is hoping for a minimal stay on the 15-day IL but is on a wait-and-see timeline and stressed the importance of taking care of any health issues “the right way” during the current season. “I need to be cognizant of the way my body reacts and feels with everything, just due to the fact I still don’t have the strongest immune system,” Hendriks noted.

As for Clevinger, the Sox will perform additional testing on the righty today after he left last night’s start due to discomfort in his right biceps. Via Van Schouwen, Clevinger explained in the postgame that he “Felt my [biceps] grab, it grabbed pretty hard, kind of scared me”, though early testing in the trainer’s room was at least positive. The Sox will have a further update on him once today’s followup imaging is complete.

The Opener: Clevinger, Fleming, O’Neill

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As the 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Clevinger exits with injury:

The White Sox announced yesterday that right-hander Mike Clevinger, who exited his start against the Dodgers in the fifth inning last night due to injury, was dealing with what the club termed “right biceps soreness.” In conversation with reporters, including Scott Merkin of MLB.com, Clevinger said the injury “kind of scared” him at first, but that initial tests after the game went well. The right-hander figures to get imaging done today to determine the severity of the issue.

In 62 2/3 innings this season across 12 starts Clevinger has posted a 3.88 ERA (112 ERA+), though his 19.5% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate contribute to a much less desirable 4.89 FIP. Should Clevinger miss significant time, it would be a blow to the club’s rotation and send a potentially valuable rental starter on a 30-39 White Sox team to the shelf with just over six weeks until the trade deadline. Right-hander Jesse Scholtens, who sports a 3.24 ERA in 16 2/3 big league innings this season, seems likely to take Clevinger’s place in the rotation if he were to miss a start.

2. Fleming to meet with specialist:

On the heels of Rays left-hander Josh Fleming hitting the shelf for at least “several weeks” due to an elbow problem, Fleming is expected to meet with specialist Dr. Keith Meister today for an in-person examination. In comments to reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times), Fleming noted that a ligament issue was possible, which would leave the door open to potential Tommy John surgery in a worst-case scenario.

Though Fleming has struggled to a 4.62 ERA and 5.87 FIP in 48 2/3 innings this season, those numbers were sent soaring after the Dodgers torched him for eight runs in his most recent appearance — after which he hit the IL. Floating between the rotation and long relief behind openers this year, Fleming has average more than 4 1/3 innings per appearance, and in eight of his 11 trips to the mound he’s held opponents to two, one or zero runs. He’s pitched at least three innings each time out. The Rays have already lost Jeffrey Springs for the season and won’t see Drew Rasmussen return to baseball activities until closer to the All-Star break. They’re currently sporting a rotation group of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley, Zach Eflin, and Yonny Chirinos. A lengthy absence from Fleming would remove a useful depth arm from the mix.

3. O’Neill meets with doctor:

Also meeting with a doctor to determine next steps today is Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill, who has been out since early May with a low back strain. As noted by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, O’Neill received two injections to reduce inflammation in his back after heading to Los Angeles for a second opinion earlier this month, with O’Neill noting that he was “pain-free” for the first time in months. The outfielder is set to meet with the doctor who delivered those injections today for an exam. If cleared to return to baseball activities, O’Neill could begin his rehab process as soon as tomorrow.

In 2021, O’Neill proved to be a revelation for the Cardinals, winning a second consecutive Gold Glove in left field while hitting 34 homers with a .286/.352/.560 batting line. Unfortunately, O’Neill has struggled since then, with a .228/.303/.380 slash line (95 wRC+) in 125 games, including 29 games this season where he’s posted a brutal 73 wRC+ and a 34.3% strikeout rate. With O’Neill joined by fellow outfielder Lars Nootbaar on the shelf, the Cardinals are currently using Tommy Edman in center field, where he’s flanked on most days by Dylan Carlson and Jordan Walker.

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