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Braves, Max Fried Avoid Arbitration

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The Braves and Max Fried agreed to a $15MM contract to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’ll avoid a hearing in his final year going through the process.  Fried is represented by CAA Sports.

Fried, who turns 30 next week, put up a 2.55 ERA in 2023.  He made 14 starts spanning 77 2/3 innings, enduring a three-month absence for a forearm strain.  The abbreviated season resulted in a $1.5MM raise for the lefty.

This represents Fried’s fourth and final time through arbitration, as he achieved Super Two status after the 2020 season.  He reached an agreement with the Braves for ’21, won a hearing against them for ’22, and lost a hearing against the club for ’23.  Fried had submitted a $15MM figure at his hearing nearly a year ago, but the arbitration panel instead chose the team’s $13.5MM figure.  So now in 2024, he will earn the amount he was hoping to earn in ’23.

Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported in December that the Braves discussed an extension with Fried’s agency prior to the ’23 season.  Braves president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos has given out 18 extensions since being hired in November 2017, according to our MLB Contract Tracker.  His longest deal for a pitcher was Spencer Strider’s six-year pact, though Strider had one year of MLB service at the time.  Otherwise he hasn’t given a multiyear deal to any starting pitcher, if you don’t count Reynaldo Lopez as one.  Though they’ve signed many players to extensions, the Braves did ultimately let Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson leave as free agents, as noted by Toscano.

Fried is a special case, given a run of success for the Braves that has included Cy Young votes in the 2020 and ’22 seasons as well as the clinching win in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series.  Starting pitchers who signed deals worth $100MM+ with five years of service in the last decade include Clayton Kershaw, Homer Bailey, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Berrios, Joe Musgrove, and Luis Castillo.  After back to back years of arbitration hearings, perhaps Fried reaching an agreement for ’24 can be viewed as a mild positive in his relationship with the team.

If he reaches the open market, Fried would be one of many interesting starting pitchers in the 2024-25 class.  You can check that out here.

Latest On Dylan Cease

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Dylan Cease remains atop the list of potential trade candidates for teams seeking rotation upgrades this offseason, but White Sox general manager Chris Getz isn’t backing off on his asking price in a trade, writes ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Other clubs who’ve spoken to the Sox about Cease tell Rogers that the ask has been “multiple” top prospects with additional lower-end talent; the Sox aren’t open to dealing two affordable years of control over their top starter for a package centered around just one top-tier prospect.

That generally aligns with prior reporting that the White Sox asked the Reds for last year’s first-round pick, Rhett Lowder, and top prospects Edwin Arroyo and Connor Phillips in exchange for Cease. Other teams have similarly balked at the idea of parting with so much talent from the top end of their system.

Rogers reports that the Braves approached the Sox and dangled infielder Vaughn Grissom, among others, but were rebuffed. Grissom instead went to the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade. The Yankees, despite having known interest in Cease, aren’t likely to further deplete their farm after already acquiring Juan Soto (and Alex Verdugo) this offseason, per Rogers — at least not at the current asking price. Outfield prospect Spencer Jones, in particular, seems highly unlikely to be included in any potential deal, he adds. Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic writes in his latest mailbag that talks between the Red Sox and White Sox never gained traction, thanks to Chicago’s steep ask.

Despite the lack of traction in talks thus far, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said in a Tuesday appearance on Foul Territory that he expects Cease to be moved prior to the season. The demand for starting pitching, as Rosenthal rightly observes, clearly outpaces the supply that’s available in free agency. Beyond that, the asking price on some other pitchers rumored to be available — Jesus Luzardo, in particular — would likely be even greater than the ask for Cease. Luzardo has three years of club control as compared to Cease’s two.

Each of the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Giants, Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, could still use some degree of rotation upgrade. The Cardinals signed three free agents early in the offseason (Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson) but were reported to have interest in Cease even after making that trio of additions.

Getz, unsurprisingly, kept things close to the vest in his public comments yesterday. The newly minted general manager rattled off a series of familiar choruses, noting that Cease would only be moved for the right deal, that there was no urgency to make a swap given his remaining club control, and specifying that the majority of the league has shown at least some level of interest in the right-hander.

Cease is coming off a down season that saw him post a 4.58 ERA with a slightly diminished 27.3% strikeout rate. That’s down only by his lofty standards; he punched out 30.1% of his opponents a year prior while pitching to a sparkling 2.20 ERA that netted him a runner-up finish in American League Cy Young voting.

While last year’s ERA was unsightly, Cease still missed bats at a high level, sat just under 96 mph in terms of average fastball velocity, and notched a well above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. He’s also made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons, leading the Majors with 109 games started since 2020. Add in that Cease is projected for an eminently affordable $8.8MM salary in arbitration this winter (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and is controllable through the 2025 season, and his appeal becomes even more apparent.

Any team to acquire Cease would surely view him as a prime rebound candidate whom they can control for two seasons before recouping some prospect value in the form of a qualifying offer. An extension with Cease always remains a possibility, albeit perhaps a faint one. Clients of the Boras Corporation tend to test the open market, though there are plenty of examples of Boras clients who have instead signed extensions (e.g. Xander Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez — among others).

Braves Sign Luis Guillorme To Major League Deal

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The Braves announced they’ve signed free agent infielder Luis Guillorme to a one-year, $1.1MM contract. Atlanta also avoided arbitration with right-hander Huascar Ynoa, signing him to an $825K deal. Guillorme, a client of MVP Sports Group, has just under five years of MLB service, so Atlanta could control him via arbitration for the 2025 season as well.

Guillorme sticks in the NL East after spending his entire career with the Mets. He played a decade in the New York organization as a former 10th-round draftee. The glove-first infielder debuted in 2018 and got to the big leagues in each of the past six years. While he saw only sporadic action in each of his first three campaigns, Guillorme got a bit more work over the last trio of seasons.

The left-handed hitter combined for a roughly league average .270/.359/.331 slash in 491 plate appearances between 2021-22. Paired with his solid glove throughout the infield, he was a valuable piece off the bench. Guillorme’s offense dropped last year, as he hit .224/.288/.327 across 54 games. After striking out in roughly 14% of his trips over the previous two seasons, Guillorme fanned at a 23.3% clip a year ago.

That drop in offense led the Mets to move on in November. New York non-tendered the 29-year-old in lieu of a $1.7MM projected salary for his penultimate season of arbitration. Guillorme won’t quite reach that level on his deal with Atlanta, but he’ll get another crack in the big leagues.

Guillorme is out of options. Atlanta will have to carry him on the MLB roster or make him available to other teams via trade or waivers. That the Braves guaranteed him $1.1MM indicates they’re likely to carry him on the Opening Day roster. Guillorme can back up the starting infield of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley. There weren’t many shortstop reps available in Queens thanks to Francisco Lindor, but Guillorme has the ability to handle any infield spot.

Atlanta acquired David Fletcher from the Angels last month. At the time, he seemed the option to replace Nicky Lopez as the depth infielder. The Braves outrighted Fletcher from the 40-man roster not long after the trade, at least raising the possibility of him starting next season at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Ynoa, meanwhile, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1MM salary in his first year of arbitration. He lost all of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery but could battle for the fifth starter job in camp.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.

Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.

With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.

For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.

Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.

Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.

His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.

The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.

Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.

But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”

With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.

The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.

As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.

Braves, Chris Sale Agree To Two-Year Deal

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The Braves and left-hander Chris Sale have agreed to a new deal, which will pay him $38MM over the next two years. The Wasserman client will earn $16MM in 2024 and $22MM in 2025 and there’s also an $18MM club option for 2026. Sale was already under contract via an extension he previously signed with the Red Sox but this will overwrite that.

Sale was acquired from the Red Sox last week, in a trade that sent Vaughn Grissom to Boston. The Sox also included $17MM to cover the remainder of Sale’s contract, a five-year, $145MM extension he and the Red Sox signed in 2019. As part of that deal, Sale was set to make $27.5MM in 2024, though $10MM of that was deferred until 15 years in the future. With the $17MM coming from the Sox, Atlanta was only going to be paying him $500K. There was also a $20MM club option for 2025.

As part of this new deal, Sale’s $16MM salary will be pretty close to the non-deferred money he was going to make in 2024. He will no longer have that deferred $10MM payment down the road, but he will have $22MM locked in for the 2025 season. That gives him some extra security in the event of more health problems cropping up this year. Sale pitched less than 50 total innings over the 2020-2022 period, mostly due to Tommy John surgery but also due to other ailments. Last year, he was able to toss 102 2/3 frames but a stress reaction in his shoulder blade kept him out of action for over two months. Any further health issues would have perhaps given the club some hesitation about picking up the 2025 option but Sale has now locked in a notable salary for next year.

For Atlanta, this is a show of faith in the soon-to-be-35-year-old. They could have simply employed Sale for 2024 and then walked away if things didn’t go well, with the club option there to keep him around if he had a strong campaign for his new club. But they have now committed themselves to at least two years of Sale, with the club option now kicked down the road to 2026. As mentioned, Sale hasn’t been fully healthy in the past four years and even had some issues before that. Some shoulder and elbow issues kept him around 150 innings in 2018 and 2019, meaning his last fully healthy campaign was 2017.

Back then, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league, finishing that 2017 season with a 2.90 ERA. Last year, he wasn’t quite as dominant, with a 4.30 at the end of the season. The peripherals were a bit better, however, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate that were both strong.

Despite that fairly solid bounceback season, it’s obviously a gamble to bet on a pitcher that has been hurt so much, locking him up for his age-35 and age-36 seasons. But the club has a decent amount of rotation uncertainty going forward. Max Fried is entering his final year of club control while Charlie Morton is one year from free agency as well. Morton has flirted with retirement before and is going into his age-40 season, making it possible he won’t be back in 2025.

Prior to this deal, Sale was a potential to depart as well, depending on the outcome of the club option. Now that he’s under contract for 2025, he can be pencilled into next year’s rotation next to Spencer Strider. The club will still have to fill out the rest of the rotation, but perhaps internal options like Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep will have taken steps forwards between now and then.

There’s also the competitive balance tax to consider. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded to reflect what remains of the contract. That means that Sale was going to have a $27.5MM CBT hit prior to this deal, with the Sox absorbing $17MM of that. But that will now drop to $19MM, leaving just $2MM on Atlanta’s CBT ledger this year but $19MM next year. Going into today, the club’s CBT figure was at $276MM, per Roster Resource. That’s right against the third tax threshold of $277MM, which is a notable line to cross. Clubs that go over the third threshold have their top pick in the next draft pushed back by 10 slots, in addition to an increased tax rate. By lowering Sale’s CBT hit, the club will have a bit more breathing room to make more moves, either now or during the season.

Ultimately, it’s a pact that works for both sides. Atlanta gets a bit more luxury tax space and also, hopefully, a better rotation outlook in 2025 and maybe even 2026. Sale, meanwhile, locks in some future earnings to guard against any continued health issues.

The Braves’ Fifth Starter Possibilities

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There’s no question about the top four in the Braves rotation. Atlanta acquired Chris Sale over the weekend to join Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton in a high-upside staff, then promptly extended Sale. The Braves don’t have a set choice for the #5 spot to open the year. It seems that’ll be up for grabs in camp.

On an appearance on The Bill Shanks Show on Tuesday, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the front office was willing to consider a number of options for the last rotation job. “It’ll be open competition for the fifth spot,” he told Shanks. The front office leader name-checked five candidates for the position (albeit without saying it was an exhaustive list): Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Atlanta had a camp battle for the final two spots last spring. They surprisingly tabbed Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, neither of whom had made their MLB debuts, for season-opening roles after impressive Spring Training performances. While neither rookie fared all that well, the Braves are open to again turning to a young arm if they outperform others in the spring.

“We’re going to take the best players,” Anthopoulos said. “We never assume the division. You can lose it or win it by a game, as we saw in 2022 (when) it came down the wire. … We’re going to break with the best team. Like anything, we’ll try to maintain our depth. If there’s a lot of ties or it’s close, we’ll keep our depth. But we’re hopeful these guys are all good in Spring Training and make it hard on us.”

Perhaps an opportunity will arise for the Braves to add a surefire #5 starter within the next couple months. That doesn’t appear to be an organizational priority, however. There seems a good chance Atlanta is content with a camp battle between the group that Anthopoulos referenced. They’ll likely all play roles at some point as injuries necessitate, but we’ll run through the top candidates for the Opening Day job as things currently stand.

——————————————

Elder surprisingly emerged as a rotation mainstay for Atlanta a year ago. Despite briefly starting the season with Triple-A Gwinnett, he wound up taking the ball 31 times and tossing 174 2/3 innings — second on the team behind Strider. Elder had a great first half, pitching to a 2.97 ERA en route to an All-Star selection. He didn’t find that same level of success down the stretch, as he surrendered a 5.11 mark in the second half. The Phillies tagged him for six runs in 2 2/3 frames during his only postseason start.

At year’s end, Elder still carried a solid 3.81 ERA. Despite the rough finish, he was a valuable part of Brian Snitker’s pitching staff. It’s nevertheless questionable whether he can replicate a sub-4.00 ERA without missing many bats. Elder had a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% swinging strike percentage a season ago. He’s a ground-ball specialist whose sinker was below the 90 MPH mark on average. It’s a very different profile from the high-octane strikeout stuff of the top four in the rotation (and that of some of his competitors for the #5 job). Anthopoulos pointed out that Elder still has a full slate of minor league options and could start the year in Gwinnett if he doesn’t break camp with the MLB team, as Ian Anderson did in 2023.

López, on the other hand, is certainly going to be on the major league roster. The question is whether that’s in the rotation or the bullpen. Atlanta signed the 30-year-old righty to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal at the start of the offseason. While the price tag wasn’t a surprise, the Braves’ subsequent announcement they might stretch López out as a starter was unexpected.

Teams have used López almost exclusively in relief for the past two and a half seasons. He hasn’t had a full year as a starter since 2019, when he was tagged for a 5.38 ERA in 184 innings for the White Sox. López has shown the durability to hold up from the rotation, topping 180 frames in consecutive seasons for Chicago in 2018-19. The former top prospect has been much more effective when working in shorter stints, though. He owns a 3.02 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout percentage in 131 1/3 innings between a trio of clubs since the start of 2022.

Smith-Shawver, who turned 21 in November, was among the youngest players to reach the majors last season. He got to the big leagues within two years of being drafted out of high school. Smith-Shawver didn’t hold a long-term rotation role, appearing in six games (five starts). He posted a 4.26 ERA through 25 1/3 innings despite middling strikeout and walk rates and seven home runs.

The 6’3″ hurler had a more impressive statistical track record in the minors. He combined for 62 frames between the top three minor league levels, allowing a 2.76 ERA while striking out 31.3% of opponents. Smith-Shawver walked over 13% of batters faced in the minors, so he’s clearly not a finished product. That’s to be expected given his youth. The Braves were impressed enough with the huge swing-and-miss potential he’d shown to carry him in relief on their playoff roster last October. He has two options remaining.

Ynoa, still just 25, pitched at the MLB level from 2019-22. He turned in mid-rotation results (4.05 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk percentage) in 2021, although he was limited to 91 innings thanks to a self-inflicted hand fracture when he punched a dugout wall. He dropped into a depth role by the ’22 season, allowing a 5.68 ERA over 18 Triple-A appearances. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of last year. He is expected to be a full participant in Spring Training. The Braves tendered him an arbitration contract but could send him to the minors for another season, as he has one option remaining.

The only player in this quintet who has yet to reach the majors, Waldrep is on a fast track to MLB. Atlanta’s first-round pick a year ago, the hard-throwing righty went from the College World Series in June to Triple-A by September. The Florida product had a brilliant 1.53 ERA while fanning a third of batters faced in his first eight professional starts at four levels (including one appearance in Gwinnett).

Atlanta is among the most aggressive teams in promoting its top prospects. As a college draftee, Waldrep is around nine months older than Smith-Shawver is. He has far less professional experience and isn’t on the 40-man roster, but he was drafted out of a strong program in college baseball’s top conference. Anthopoulos conceded it’d be ideal for both Waldrep and Smith-Shawver to have more developmental time but rhetorically asked, “if they come in and they are so much better than anybody else, how we do deny them?“

MLBTR Podcast: Yamamoto Fallout, the Sale/Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Braves, Red Sox Trade Chris Sale For Vaughn Grissom

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The Braves and Red Sox have agreed to a major trade, as left-hander Chris Sale will head to Atlanta in exchange for infield prospect Vaughn Grissom, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  The Sox will also include $17MM in the deal to help cover Sale’s $27.5MM salary for the 2024 season, as per the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.  Sale had a full no-trade clause that he has waived to facilitate the move.

The surprising move ends Sale’s tumultuous run in Boston after seven years and six seasons, as Sale missed all of the 2020 campaign.  After acquiring Sale as part of a blockbuster deal with the White Sox in December 2016, Sale pitched brilliantly in his first two seasons at Fenway, twice finishing in the top four in AL Cy Young Award voting and playing a big role in Boston’s World Series title in 2018.

Since 2019 was the last year of Sale’s previous contract, the Red Sox were aggressive in locking up their ace, signing him to a five-year, $145MM extension covering the 2020-24 seasons, with a $20MM club option for the 2025 campaign.  Unfortunately, this extension has proven to be a big misfire, as Sale started to run into injury problems even late in the 2018 campaign.  He was shut down in August 2019 with elbow inflammation and received a PRP injection, yet that elbow issue was only the harbinger for the Tommy John surgery that cost Sale his entire 2020 season and most of his 2021 campaign.

The bad injury luck continued over the last two seasons, as Sale was sidelined by a wide array of maladies including a stress reaction in his ribs, a fractured finger, a broken wrist (suffered in a bicycle accident), and a stress reaction in his shoulder blade.  Sale tossed only 48 1/3 innings total in 2021-22, while rebounding to some extent to pitch 102 2/3 frames last season.

Sale’s 93.9mph fastball velocity in 2023 slightly topped his career average, while his strikeout, walk, and hard-hit ball rates were all well above the league average.  While the southpaw may never get back to his past elite form, Sale’s 2023 performance at least indicated that he still has a good deal left in the tank as he enters his age-35 season, provided that he can just stay on the field.

This is exactly what the Braves are counting on from Sale as a third or even a fourth starter, behind Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton in the team’s rotation.  President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is counting in Sale’s upside to bolster the pitching staff, and Atlanta’s collection of younger arms (AJ Smith-Shawver, Dylan Dodd, Huascar Ynoa, Darius Vines, and top prospect Hurston Waldrep) and swingman Reynaldo Lopez can provide extra depth should Sale or anyone else in the rotation need time on the injured list.

In typical Anthopoulos fashion, this particular trade came out of nowhere, even if the Braves were known to be looking for some pitching help.  Atlanta made a strong bid for Aaron Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, and such free agent and trade targets as Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, and Seth Lugo were also linked to the Braves on the rumor mill.

Because Sale’s extension the Red Sox contained $10MM of deferred money per season, he’ll cost the Braves merely $500K in actual salary in 2024.  Even without the deferral involved, a one-year, $10.5MM deal for Sale as a free agent would’ve been a reasonable or even a slight bargain price for a pitcher with his track record.  It could perhaps be argued that the Braves might have been better off finding such a pitcher on the free agent market rather than trade away a promising young player like Grissom, but it is also fair to note that such a rotation upgrade might not have existed at a $10.5MM price tag.  Or, dealing for a pitcher like Cease, Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, or other still-available trade candidates might’ve cost Atlanta lot more than only Grissom.

Sale’s $20MM club option for 2025 shouldn’t be discounted either, as the Braves might consider exercising that option if Sale pitched well.  The $20MM figure matches what Morton is earning this season, and since Morton has flirted with retirement over the last few years, Sale could potentially step in as Atlanta’s veteran rotation arm if Morton does hang up his cleats next winter.  Sale’s $20MM club option is actually a vesting option that becomes guaranteed if he finishes the year healthy, and finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young Award voting.

Anthopoulos and team chairman Terry McGuirk weren’t kidding last November when they said that the Braves planned to keep increasing payroll.  The Braves’ $203MM Opening Day payroll from 2023 was already a club record, and Roster Resource now projects a payroll just shy of $241MM for the 2024 squad.  After topping the luxury tax barrier for the first time in 2023, the Braves’ estimated $280MM tax number now soars over the third penalty tier of $277MM, so they’ll face increasingly hefty overages as second-time payors.  Passing the third tier means that Atlanta’s top pick in the 2024 draft will now drop 10 spots, and they’ll face the standard tax penalties related to qualified free agents and the international bonus pool.

This doesn’t appear to be much of a deterrent for an Atlanta club that has been swimming in extra revenues since the opening of Truist Park and its neighboring ballpark village project known as The Battery.  The Braves have used this money to lock up several members of its roster on contract extensions, and this young core has already delivered the 2021 World Series championships and six straight NL East crowns.

The outlook hasn’t been as rosy at Fenway Park, as the Red Sox have been very inconsistent since that 2018 title.  On the heels of consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East, Craig Breslow replaced Chaim Bloom as the team’s chief baseball officer, and Breslow now has his first true blockbuster trade as a front office executive.

Starting pitching has been a known need for the Red Sox all winter, and Boston just signed Lucas Giolito yesterday to help address the rotation mix.  While moving Sale diminishes from the number of available arms, the trade does free up some money to help make other moves, and the Sox simply might’ve wanted a more reliable starting pitching option than the injury-plagued Sale.  Plus, adding six years of team control over a promising player like Grissom is a nice return for the Sox at the cost of $17MM.

Grissom immediately fills Boston’s need for second base help.  An 11th-round pick for Atlanta in the 2019 draft, Grissom has torn up minor league pitching during his four seasons in the Braves’ farm system and quickly got himself on the radar for a big league call-up.  Grissom hit .291/.353/.440 over 156 plate appearances in 2022, though followed up with a more modest .659 OPS in just 80 PA last season.  Given a chance at the everyday shortstop job, Grissom fell behind Orlando Arcia on the depth chart, and ultimately spent most the season at Triple-A since the Braves wanted him to play regularly rather than ride the bench.

Grissom has spent much of his minor league career as a shortstop, yet there has been some question about his long-term viability at the position.  Moving to second base or third base was difficult on a Braves team with Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley already in place, so Grissom had been getting some reps as an outfielder as a possible candidate to fill the club’s left field vacancy.  However, the acquisition of Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners also seemed to close that door.

No such position blocks exist in Boston, as the Red Sox might well just install Grissom as their Opening Day second baseman.  He fits Breslow’s preferred add of a right-handed hitter, and Grissom’s glovework could or should work out well at the less-demanding second base position.  Getting Grissom in the fold could now relegate Enmanuel Valdez, Pablo Reyes, or Rob Refsnyder to pure backup duty or perhaps even as trade chips, while Ceddanne Rafaela now looks even likelier to be used as an outfielder (and Rafaela might yet be a trade candidate himself).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Alex Anthopoulos, Craig Breslow Discuss Chris Sale Trade

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The Braves and Red Sox got together on a major trade earlier today where Boston swapped left-hander Chris Sale and cash considerations to Atlanta in exchange for infielder Vaughn Grissom. In the aftermath of the deal’s announcement, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow both spoke to reporters about the deal and what’s next for their organization as 2023 comes to a close.

Anthopoulos spoke glowingly of Sale in the aftermath of the deal, describing him to reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) as a “playoff-caliber starter” while noting that adding such a pitcher to the club’s rotation was a major goal for the Braves this offseason. With right-hander Kyle Wright having undergone shoulder surgery and been shipped to Kansas City earlier this offseason, the club had little certainty behind its front-of-the-rotation duo of Spencer Strider and Max Fried.

Veteran righty Charlie Morton figured to slot into the #3 spot in the rotation, but posted the highest full-season walk rate of his career in 2023 and celebrated his 40th birthday last month. Meanwhile, youngster Bryce Elder started the season strong but faded down the stretch with a 5.49 ERA across his final 15 starts. The addition of Sale, a seven-time All Star who posted a 3.16 ERA across his final 15 starts last season, adds an arm with potentially elite upside to the club’s mix while also bolstering the club’s overall pitching depth to help make up for the departure of Wright. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, Anthopoulos made clear that Sale is “locked” into the club’s rotation for 2024 alongside Fried, Strider, and Morton.

Of course, it can’t be ignored that Sale has managed just 31 starts over the past four years due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery. Anthopoulos acknowledged the injury concerns that come with adding the veteran lefty, but noted that “anyone you acquire, there’s risk” while also adding that “it was a shot we wanted to take” thanks in part to Anthopoulos’s strong belief in Sale’s ability and makeup.

“We think he’s an absolute perfect fit with our group,” Anthoupolos said, “We’ll get to know him and we’ll do everything we can to put him in the best position to stay healthy and have success.”

When discussing the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason, Anthopolous remained vague, noting that the offseason has no set end point and that moves continue to happen even into Spring Training. He went on to note that the club will “keep an open mind” for the remainder of the offseason. It wouldn’t be a shock if the club was done with the heavy-lifting of its offseason at this point, as they’ve already bolstered the pitching staff with Reynaldo Lopez and traded for a starting left fielder in Jarred Kelenic in addition to the acquisition of Sale.

On the other end of the trade, Breslow called moving on from Sale “a really tough, tough decision” when speaking to reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe), particularly considering Sale’s legacy as a key piece of the club’s 2018 World Series team. At the same time, Breslow lauded Grissom for his “really strong right-handed bat” while also noting that he figures to remain under club control for the next six seasons.

“I’ve talked long about the exciting emerging core of players around whom we want to build,” Breslow said, “…we certainly count Vaughn in that group.”

Though Breslow noted that Grissom has the versatility to play all over the field, he made clear that he views the 22-year-old as the club’s everyday second baseman. That would seemingly leave veteran infielder Trevor Story poised to return to shortstop on a full-time basis. Story struggled in 43 games last season after returning from UCL surgery over the summer, but prior to that injury had a long track record as a quality, two-way shortstop that earned him a six-year, $140MM deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2022 season.

One curious aspect of the deal from Boston’s perspective is that the club has made adding to its starting rotation an explicit goal throughout the offseason, and parting ways with Sale, who in spite of his recent injuries arguably remained their highest-ceiling starter, creates an even bigger hole in their starting five. Breslow emphasized (as relayed by Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) that the club still plans to add to its rotation even after yesterday’s signing of Lucas Giolito, and that the club views both free agency and the trade market as potential avenues for a deal. Speier relays that Breslow noted the importance of the club being willing to part with prospects in order to acquire “quality, controllable starting pitching.”

The club has recently been linked to a reunion with left-hander James Paxton while also frequently being connected to top remaining rotation arms such as Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga. Of course, there are plenty of other players still available who could represent an upgrade for the club’s rotation including Marcus Stroman and Yariel Rodriguez in free agency or Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber on the trade market. A trade would likely become an even more attractive route for adding to the rotation if the club’s reported pursuit of outfielder Teoscar Hernandez winds up successful, as it would add an everyday bat to the outfield mix and make the likes of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela easier to part with in trade.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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On paper, a longer contract equals a larger amount of job security.  And yet every year, we seem to be adding a longer list of caveats to this annual post detailing which managers and front office bosses (a GM, president of baseball operations, chief baseball officer, or whatever the title may be) are entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.

First off, this list is somewhat speculative — some teams don’t publicly announce the terms of employee contracts, nor are details always leaked to reporters.  It is entirely possible some of the names listed have already quietly agreed to new deals, or were already contracted beyond 2024.  Secondly, obviously a contract only carries so much weight if a team drastically underperforms, and if ownership feels a change is needed in the dugout or in the front office.  Or, ownership might still desire a change even if the team is doing well on the field, i.e. the Marlins parting ways with Kim Ng after a wild card berth last season.

Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal to become the Cubs’ new manager also provides an interesting wrinkle to the managerial market.  With Counsell’s contract setting a new modern benchmark for managerial salaries, some of the more established skippers on this list will surely be looking to match or top Counsell’s deal.  These managers might choose (as Counsell did) to finish the year without signing a new contract and then test the open market, since you never know when a mystery team like the Cubs might swoop in to top the field.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: The Halos have had eight consecutive losing seasons, including the first three years of Perry Minasian’s stint as general manager.  Minasian now faces the challenge of trying to break this losing streak without Shohei Ohtani on the roster, and even before Ohtani joined the Dodgers, Minasian was clear that the Angels weren’t going to be rebuilding.  This tracks with the overall aggressive nature of owner Arte Moreno, yet this approach has also manifested itself in five non-interim GMs running the Angels since Moreno bought the team in 2003.  As Minasian enters the last year of his contract, it will take at least a winning season to keep Moreno from making yet another front office change.

Athletics: There hasn’t been any word about an extension for general manger David Forst, even though Forst’s last deal purportedly expired after the 2023 season.  It can therefore probably be assumed that Forst inked a new deal at some point, as it has appeared to be business as usual for the longtime Oakland executive this winter (or as “usual” as business can be given the Athletics’ bare-bones rebuild and the unusual nature of the team’s impending move to Las Vegas).  Manager Mark Kotsay would’ve been entering the final guaranteed year of his original deal with the A’s, except the team exercised their club option on Kotsay through the 2025 season.

Braves: Alex Anthopoulos is entering the last season of his three-year extension as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, and one would imagine that ownership will aim to lock Anthopoulos up to another deal as soon as possible.  The Braves have won six straight NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship during Anthopoulos’ six seasons with the organization, and look to be contenders for years to come thanks to the core of star players under long-term deals.  Anthopoulos would seemingly be eager to stay in Atlanta for this same reason, though if he did choose to play out the year and test the market, he would undoubtedly command a lot of interest from teams looking for a new chief executive.

Cardinals: For just the third time in the last century, a Cardinals team lost 91 or more games.  This unexpected interruption in the Cards’ run of success has naturally put a lot of heat on Oliver Marmol, who is entering the final season of his three-year contract.  Unsurprisingly, the team had yet to have any extension talks with Marmol as of early December, and it remains to be seen if Marmol will get even one extra year of security.  With such franchise stalwarts as Yadier Molina or Joe McEwing perhaps waiting in the wings as managers of the future, Marmol will surely need a quick start and at least a winning record in 2024 to retain his job.

Guardians: Chris Antonetti’s contract details haven’t been publicly known for more than a decade, yet there isn’t any sense that the longtime executive will be leaving Ohio any time soon.  Antonetti has been part of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and he has been running the baseball ops department (first as GM and then as president of baseball operations) since 2010.  While the Guardians stumbled to a 76-86 record last year, Antonetti has a long track record of building contending teams on low payrolls, and he’ll now embark on a new era with Stephen Vogt replacing Terry Francona as the Guards’ manager.

Mariners: Another somewhat speculative situation, as while president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais signed extensions in September 2021, the exact length of those extensions wasn’t reported.  It is probably fair to assume both men are signed beyond 2024, though Servais’ previous two deals were three-year contracts, and 2024 would be his final guaranteed year if the skipper’s latest contract was also a three-year pact.

Orioles: Baltimore is particularly mum about the details of any employee contracts, as GM Mike Elias’ contract terms have never been publicized since he took over the club in November 2018.  Manager Brandon Hyde has already signed one extension that flew under the radar, and that deal has apparently stretched beyond the 2023 season, as there hasn’t been any suggestion that Hyde won’t return to the AL East champions.  In either case, Elias and Hyde won’t seem to have any worries about job security given how the Orioles won 101 games last year, and might be budding powerhouses for the next decade given the amount of young talent on the roster and in the minor league pipeline.

Pirates: Ben Cherington is entering his fifth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, and terms of his original deal weren’t reported.  With the Bucs perhaps starting to turn the corner after their long rebuild, there wouldn’t appear to be any reason for ownership to move on from Cherington, if he hasn’t already been quietly signed to a new deal.  The Pirates already extended manager Derek Shelton back in April, in another hint that ownership is satisfied with the team’s direction.

Rays: Kevin Cash’s last extension was a lengthy six-year deal covering the 2019-24 seasons, with a club option for 2025.  It seems like a lock that the Rays will at least exercise that club option and seek out another multi-year deal, and Cash has a good case to argue for a Counsell-esque contract.  Widely considered one of baseball’s best managers, Cash is 739-617 over his nine seasons in Tampa Bay and has led the team to five consecutive postseason berths.

Red Sox: Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract, and the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East.  Despite these results, the blame seems to have been placed on now-fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, as there hasn’t been much indication that ownership is dissatisfied with Cora’s performance as manager.  Since Cora has hinted that he might like to run a front office himself in the future, it will be interesting to monitor if he might pursue those ambitions as soon as next offseason, or if he might sign a new extension with the Red Sox as manager, or if Cora could perhaps let the season play out and then accept bids from several suitors outside of Boston.

Rockies: In each of the last two Februarys, Bud Black has signed a one-year extension to tack an extra year onto his run as Colorado’s manager.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Black do the same this spring, as past reports have indicated that Black and the Rockies are working on an unofficial roll-over arrangement with the manager’s contract status.  As loyal as owner Dick Monfort is known to be with his employees, however, one wonders if the Rockies’ 103-loss season in 2023 (or their five straight losing seasons) might lead to questions about Black’s future, even if the team’s roster construction or their boatload of pitching injuries last year can’t be blamed on Black.  For what it’s worth, the terms of GM Bill Schmidt’s deal weren’t publicized when Schmidt was promoted to the full-time position after the 2021 season, though Schmidt isn’t thought to be in any danger of being replaced.

Twins: Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both apparently entering the final year of their contracts, though Minnesota has been known to be somewhat quiet about employee contracts (such as manager Rocco Baldelli’s last extension).  The duo known as “Falvine” have been on the job for seven seasons, with something of an all-or-nothing track record of either losing seasons or playoff berths, and the Twins were on the upswing again with an AL Central title in 2023.  Assuming either exec hasn’t already signed an under-the-radar extension, the Twins would seemingly be eager to retain both Falvey and Levine, though either could explore options elsewhere for at least leverage purposes.  For Levine in particular, he could be looking to lead his own front office, after being a finalist for Boston’s CBO job this fall and previously getting some consideration for front office vacancies with the Rockies and Phillies in recent years.

Yankees: Perhaps no skipper in baseball faces more public pressure than Aaron Boone, given how a lot of Bronx fans were calling for his ouster even before the Yankees missed the playoffs and won only 82 games in 2023.  Boone is entering the last guaranteed year of his contract, and the Yankees have a club option on his services for 2025.  For as much loyalty as owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have shown to Boone, it is hard to imagine the manager would be retained if New York doesn’t at least make the postseason again, and another miss could also raise some new questions about Cashman’s status (though his deal runs through the 2026 season).

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