MLBTR Poll: Should The Cubs Trade Christopher Morel?
On the heels of a 83-79 season that saw the Cubs finish just outside of the NL playoff picture, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office appear poised to be aggressive this offseason in their pursuit of returning the club to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game campaign since 2018. Chicago already shocked the baseball world this offseason by hiring Craig Counsell to manage the club on a record-setting contract and has been connected to high-profile free agents such as NPB arms Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and Yuki Matsui as well as center fielder Cody Bellinger and first baseman Rhys Hoskins, to say nothing of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.
In addition to the rumors swirling around the Cubs and many of the league’s top free agents, the Cubs have been connected to many of the league’s top trade candidates including Padres outfielder Juan Soto, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, and even Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes. At the center of many of those hypothetical trade discussions has been young slugger Christopher Morel, whose name has appeared in early offseason trade rumors so frequently that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco ranked him #22 in his list of the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates.
Morel made his MLB debut back in May of 2022, just before his 23rd birthday. The youngster initially broke onto the club’s roster due to an injury to Jason Heyward, which provided Morel with the opportunity to get semi-regular reps in center field with the big league club despite having never played above the Double-A level to that point. Morel made the most of his opportunity, sticking on the club’s roster throughout the rest of the 2022 season and slashing .235/.308/.433 (108 wRC+) in 113 games while splitting time between center field, second base, third base, and shortstop.
That above-average offensive production and impressive versatility in Morel’s rookie season gave him the look of a potential big league regular, though there were certainly flaws in his profile. Morel was a well below average defender in center and seemed to be a fringy defender at both third base and shortstop as well, despite a solid showing at second base. On top of the defensive question marks, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s above-average slash line was carried by a hot first half; the youngster slashed just .194/269/.376 in 184 trips to the plate during the second half in 2022. Between that late-season slump and his 32.2% strikeout rate, which was sixth-highest in the majors among players with at least 400 plate appearances that year, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s production would be sustainable entering his sophomore season.
The questions about Morel’s glove were only exacerbated by the signing of Dansby Swanson, who slotted in at shortstop and kicked Nico Hoerner over to second base in doing so. With Hoerner now an obvious everyday solution at second base, Morel entered the 2023 season without a clear role on the big league club and started the season at Triple-A. He tore the cover off the ball with a comical .330/.425/.730 slash line in 29 games with the club’s Iowa affiliate before the Cubs had seen enough to bring him up to the big leagues. Though he logged occasional time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop, Morel spent much of the season as Chicago’s primary DH.
Morel took to his new role quite well, slashing .247/.313/.508 (119 wRC+) with 26 home runs across just 429 trips to the plate. Only Aaron Judge, J.D. Martinez, Yordan Alvarez, and Nolan Gorman hit more home runs in under 500 trips to the plate this year. What’s more, Morel’s .260 ISO ranked sixteenth among players with at least 400 big league plate appearances in 2023, ranking just behind Jorge Soler and just ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr. Though Morel’s strikeout rate of 31% is still high enough to raise plenty of eyebrows, the youngster managed to establish himself as a quality big-league power bat as the Cubs’ regular DH.
As previously mentioned, Morel has found himself at the center of trade rumors this offseason with the Cubs potentially in line to be aggressive this winter. Reports have suggested Morel as a potential piece of the return for both Soto and Alonso should the Cubs look to deal for either player, though other reports have indicated the Cubs might be hesitant to include Morel in a deal for a rental piece.
The decision on whether or not to shop Morel this offseason is an interesting one for the Cubs. The youngster is not yet eligible for arbitration and figures to remain under team control for five more seasons before being first eligible for free agency after the 2028 season. His power-oriented bat could prove crucial for the Cubs in 2024, particularly after the 2023 team landed middle-of-the-pack in terms of both ISO and home runs this past season, and it’s always possible that a player as young as Morel manages to find another gear and break out. That sort of upside could make it hard for the Cubs to part with Morel, especially given the amount of team control he has remaining.
That being said, with Nico Hoerner locked in at second base for the next three seasons while Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are set to patrol the outfield corners for that same term, Morel seems unlikely to find a long-term position in Chicago— at least, unless he takes to a new position this winter. What’s more, Morel’s propensity for striking out combined with just average walk rates for his career give him an uncertain floor as a player; if his power production dips, it’s possible the Cubs could be looking at a roughly league average offensive contributor taking up their DH slot on most days. That risk could make it sensible for Chicago to attempt to sell high on Morel this offseason.
What do MLBTR readers think about Chicago’s dilemma? Should the Cubs look to move Morel now, given his value may never be higher? Or should they hold onto him in hopes of a breakout that could make him an impact player in spite of his limited defensive value? Have your say in the poll below:
(poll link for app users)
Should The Cubs Trade Christopher Morel This Offseason?
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Yes, sell high on Morel and shop him aggressively. 40% (2,962)
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Listen to offers on Morel, but don't trade him for a rental player. 37% (2,704)
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No, hold onto Morel and see how he develops. 23% (1,661)
Total votes: 7,327
Rangers Interested In Reunion With Jordan Montgomery
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery figures to be among the most sought-after free agents on the starting pitching market this offseason. With righty Aaron Nola having already returned to the Phillies on a seven-year deal earlier this week, only recently-posted right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell compare rank ahead of Montgomery on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list in terms of starting pitching options for 2024. While the Yankees, Cardinals and Red Sox have both already been connected to the southpaw this offseason, Montgomery is also receiving interest from the team he just won the World Series with. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Rangers “hope” that they’ll be able to bring Montgomery back into the fold this offseason.
That’s hardly a surprise, given the excellent form he showed since being shipped to Texas by St. Louis over the summer. In 11 starts following that deadline deal, Montgomery posted a sterling 2.79 ERA that was 60% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a FIP of 3.27. While his 2023 strikeout rate of 21.4% was more solid than elite, his already strong 6.2% walk rate this season improved to a phenomenal 4.9% figure during his time with the Rangers down the stretch. Montgomery paired his ability to limit the free pass with a 43.2% groundball rate that placed him just outside the top-20 by that metric among qualified starters this season. It was more of the same during Montgomery’s six postseason appearances for Texas this October, during which he posted a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings of work.
Montgomery’s strong 2023 caps off a trio of three seasons that have seen the southpaw establish himself as a quality front-end starter for a playoff-caliber team. In splitting his time between the Yankees, Cardinals, and Rangers from 2021-23, Montgomery has posted a 3.48 ERA and 3.62 FIP while making at least 30 starts in each of those seasons. Over the past three seasons, Montgomery is one of just 20 pitchers to record at least 500 innings of work, a feat that establishes him as one of the game’s premiere workhorses at this point in his career.
Given his recent performance and the number of teams known to be in the market for starting pitching this offseason, Montgomery is at least a plausible fit for plenty of clubs. The Rangers are certainly included in that. While the club’s Opening Day rotation can at least be plausibly filled with Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney, both Dunning and Heaney spent time in the bullpen for Texas in 2023 in addition to their time in the rotation. It’s also worth noting that each of Scherzer, Eovaldi, and Gray spent significant time on the injured list this past season, while Heaney has a lengthy injury history of his own.
While ace righty Jacob deGrom could return from Tommy John surgery sometime next season, deGrom wouldn’t exactly provide reliable innings coming off the second Tommy John surgery of his career and with just 186 2/3 innings of work over the past three seasons of his career. Given the substantial injury risk in the Rangers’ currently projected rotation, reuniting with Montgomery would be a sensible decision to add some stability to a front-of-the-rotation picture that otherwise features a pair of oft-injured veterans in Scherzer and Eovaldi and could add a third arm befitting of that description in deGrom later in the year.
Of course, a deal is hardly a slam-dunk even in spite of the clear fit and interest on Texas’s end of the equation. After all, Montgomery has already been linked to three other teams this offseason and plenty of clubs are in need of starting pitching help and could enter the market for his services as the offseason progresses. What’s more, the Rangers are expected to make improving the club’s bullpen a focus of their offseason after the club’s relief corps posted a brutal 4.77 ERA in 2023. Though the addition of Montgomery would allow the club to improve the bullpen by moving Heaney or Dunning into a multi-inning relief role, the club’s bullpen would likely benefit far more from the addition of a late-inning arm like Josh Hader or NPB lefty Yuki Matsui.
Such a signing wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Rangers from adding Montgomery, as they’ve hardly shied away from making multiple significant additions in recent offseasons. That being said, it’s fair to at least wonder how much the club plans on increasing its payroll (which already sits at $214MM for next year according to RosterResource) in light of recent reporting that Diamond Sports Group is considering dropping Rangers broadcasts ahead of the 2024 campaign. If Diamond were to do so, it would leave the Rangers without a distribution partner for local broadcasting, a reality that has already led the Twins toward cutting payroll this offseason.
Ron Hodges Passes Away
12-year major league veteran Ron Hodges passed away today at the age of 74, per an announcement from the Mets. Hodges spent his entire career as a member of the Mets.
Before ultimately landing with the Mets, several other teams attempted to draft Hodges. The Orioles selected him in the sixth round of the 1970 draft, though he did not sign with them. 1971 saw Hodges drafted in both January and June by the Royals and Braves, respectively, though he did not sign with a team until New York selected him in the second round of the secondary phase in the 1972 January draft. After signing, Hodges reached the big leagues fairly quickly, debuting with the major league club in June of 1973.
Hodges took to the role he spent much of his career in during his 1973 rookie campaign, acting as the club’s backup catcher and a pinch-hitter off the bench. After catching Hall of Fame right-hander Tom Seaver in his first career big league game, Hodges went on to make the club’s postseason roster in 1973. Though he did not appear during the NLCS against the Reds, Hodges appeared in Game 1 of the World Series against the A’s as a pinch hitter, drawing a walk in his lone appearance during the series as the Mets went on to lose to Oakland in seven games.
For the first eight season of his career, Hodges was used largely in his aforementioned role as a backup and pinch-hitter. He performed acceptably in that role, slashing .233/.320/.314 in 377 games across those seasons. Hodges broke out somewhat with the bat in 1981, however. Though he only appeared in 35 games, he impressed with a .302/.375/.419 slash line across his 48 trips to the plate that season. That offensive showing earned him some additional playing time during the 1982 season; he split time behind the plate with John Stearns, appearing in 80 games and slashing an above-average .246/.358/.373 in 276 plate appearances.
Hodges’s solid showing in a larger role in 1982 allowed him an even bigger opportunity the following year. He was the Mets’ Opening Day starter behind the plate in 1983, when he caught Seaver in the first start of his return to Queens for his age-38 season. Hodges went on to appear in 110 games with the Mets that season, slashing .260/.383/.308 in 305 trips to the plate that season. It proved to be the penultimate season of his career, as Hodges retired after the 1984 season with 666 career games and 1,683 plate appearances under his belt. A career .240/.342/.322 hitter, Hodges collected 342 hits during his career. Those of us at MLBTR extend our condolences to Hodges’s family, friends, loved ones and teammates.
Phillies Re-Sign Aaron Nola
One of the offseason’s top free agents is staying put, as the Phillies announced that Aaron Nola has been re-signed to a seven-year deal. Nola will earn $172MM over the course of the contract, which contains no opt-out clauses or club options. Nola is represented by Paragon Sports.
Nola, 30, was selected seventh overall by the Phillies in the 2014 draft. The right-hander was a quick riser to the big leagues, making his MLB debut shortly after the All-Star break in 2015 at the age of 22. His rookie season saw him post a respectable 3.59 ERA (107 ERA+) and 4.04 FIP across 13 starts in the majors. It was a preview of the reliable, back-of-the-rotation production Nola would provide the Phillies with throughout his early twenties: he posted a 3.94 ERA (106 ERA+) across the first three seasons of his big league career, though a 3.38 FIP in that time suggested there was more potential yet to come for the young righty.
That potential was unleashed during the 2018 season. Nola posted a sterling 2.37 ERA while racking up 224 strikeouts across 212 1/3 innings of work. The performance not only earned Nola his first career All-Star appearance and a third-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting that year, but the Phillies also inked him to a new contract. The two sides agreed to a four-year extension with a club option for the 2023 season shortly before Opening Day 2019.
While Nola never quite replicated that incredible 2018 campaign over the life of his extension, he’s remained one of the most durable starters in the league over the past half-decade. Since the start of the 2018 season, only Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings than Nola’s 1065 1/3 figure. While Nola’s ERA of 3.65 is dragged down by difficult 2021 and 2023 seasons that saw him post results closer to that of a league-average starter than an ace, his 3.38 FIP over the past six seasons is a top-ten figure among arms with at least 700 innings of work across that timeframe. That leaves him with a whopping 25.5 fWAR accumulated over the past six seasons, an excellent figure topped only by Cole, Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation Zack Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom.
Impressive as those numbers are, Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is a hefty one for a pitcher coming off a 4.46 ERA (96 ERA+) platform season. Though Nola’s struggles in 2023 could fairly be attributed, at least in part, to a deflated 66.4% strand rate and an elevated 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs, he’ll continue to call the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park home while pitching in front of a Phillies defense that ranked below average by measure of Outs Above Average last season and bottom-five per Defensive Runs Saved. While a full-time shift to DH for Kyle Schwarber and additional reps for Bryce Harper at his new position of first base should help the Phillies out in the field next season, the defensive holes created by Nick Castellanos in right field and Trea Turner at shortstop seem unlikely to be plugged any time soon.
Previous reporting indicated the Phillies were hesitant to give Nola a seven-year contract, but Philadelphia continued a trend that became more common — stretching deals for top free agents in terms of years to lower the contract’s AAV. It’s a tactic used with several positional free agents last offseason, including Turner’s own 11-year pact with the Phillies. While the deal between Nola and the Phillies will keep the right-hander on the payroll through the 2030 season, the club will pay Nola just $24.57MM yearly for luxury tax purposes.
That AAV comes in far below not only that of previous top-tier free agent starters like David Price ($31MM AAV), but also more recent arms like Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon ($27MM AAV). Nola’s annual figure is much more closely in line with that of previous free agent arms like Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin, none of whom entered free agency with a track record of success comparable to Nola’s. The lowered AAV could help the Phillies if they look to avoid surpassing higher levels of the luxury tax. In 2024, Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll just over $252MM for luxury tax purposes, putting them around $5MM below the second luxury tax threshold of $257MM. Of course, staying under that figure would require the Phillies to either trim payroll elsewhere on the roster or make virtually no additional moves this offseason, though Nola’s lower AAV could still come into play for luxury tax purposes in future seasons.
Nola clocked in at number five on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we projected the righty for a six-year, $150MM contract. While that projection ended up one year and $22MM light, it seems that Nola could have surpassed the deal he took with the Phillies had he decided to sign elsewhere as the New York Post’s Heyman reports that Nola took a lesser deal to remain in Philadelphia. It’s unclear which team or teams topped Philly’s offer, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan notes that the Braves were considered a “real threat” to land Nola while Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Tom Ackerman of KMOX this morning that he had been engaged with Nola’s agents during his free agency but that Nola had a “really strong desire” to return to the Phillies.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made fairly clear that the Phillies only plan on adding one arm to their rotation this offseason, and with Nola back on board it seems the club’s rotation is set headed into 2024. While it’s certainly feasible that the heavy lifting for the Phillies could already be done for the offseason, there are still holes on the roster the club could look to address. The club could look to add a bat to their left field mix rather than rely on Johan Rojas as an everyday player after a solid 59-game stint in the majors this year, while the club’s late-inning mix could use a right-handed arm to pair with Jose Alvarado after veteran closer Craig Kimbrel departed for free agency.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report that the agreement was in place, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the $172MM figure. Nightengale and Jon Heyman of the New York Post respectively added the details about the no-trade clause and the lack of club options or opt-outs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Central Notes: Woodruff, Turnbull, Cardinals
The Brewers parted ways with right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff ahead of the non-tender deadline late last week, making the 30-year-old a free agent for the first time in his career. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discussed the circumstances under which Woodruff became a free agent and his outlook entering the open market this morning, noting that the Brewers did receive interest from multiple clubs ahead of Friday’s deadline in acquiring Woodruff. The return in such a deal would have been negligible, however, and Rosenthal notes that Milwaukee decided to simply non-tender Woodruff rather than ship him to a team he might not prefer to join in exchange for a minimal return.
Now that the Brewers have allowed Woodruff to hit free agency, Rosenthal notes that the right-hander figures to receive two-year offers on the open market, suggesting that the total guarantee could clock in below the two-year, $30.35MM extension Rays righty Tyler Glasnow inked with the Rays last summer. Though Glasnow was in a somewhat similar situation to Woodruff at the time of the deal, having missed the entire 2022 season to that point due to Tommy John surgery, Glasnow was nearing a return from the procedure when he signed on to a deal that would cover his age-29 and -30 campaigns. Woodruff, by contrast, is expected to miss anywhere between six and eighteen months, per Rosenthal, and would be signing on for his age-31 and -32 campaigns.
More from around MLB’s central divisions…
- Joining Woodruff on the free agent market after being non-tendered by the Tigers is right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, president of baseball operations tried to trade Turnbull ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline but was unable to find any takers. The decision to non-tender Turnbull, McCosky notes, comes after a long-running saga of issues between the club’s decision to option Turnbull to Triple-A back in May (a move that was later rescinded due to an at-the-time undisclosed neck injury) and subsequent decision to option him a second time in August while he was working his way back from the neck injury and subsequent toe issue. Tensions between the sides got to the point that McCosky notes Turnbull requested a trade ahead of the trade deadline on August 1 this past summer, though of course no deal wound up occurring back then. Now a free agent, Turnbull figures to be among the more interesting rebound candidates on the rotation market this offseason, given his flashes of success from 2020-21 when he posted a 3.46 ERA and 3.24 FIP across 20 starts.
- While the Cardinals are known to be in the market for multiple starting pitchers and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referenced discussions he had with right-hander Aaron Nola‘s representation in conversation with Tom Ackerman of KMOX, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the club’s interest in Nola never reached the point where the club met with the right-hander or made a formal offer prior to him re-signing with the Phillies earlier today. Though Goold notes that other NL clubs were “actively engaged” in attempting to lure Nola away from Philadelphia, he adds that the Cardinals were not among them, despite indications earlier in the offseason that the club would be interested in Nola’s services this winter. While Nola is now off the market, he’s far from the only top-of-the-market pitching free agent the Cardinals have been connected to this offseason, Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has been connected to St. Louis multiple times so far this offseason, while the club also has reported interested in NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery.
Kyle Keller Reportedly Drawing Interest From MLB Clubs
Right-hander Kyle Keller is reportedly drawing interest from six major league teams, per Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray adds that Keller, who pitched in Japan the past two seasons, is also drawing interest from NPB clubs.
Keller, 30, was an 18th-round pick by the Marlins in the 2015 draft and pitched in the majors for parts of three seasons, from 2019-21. He recorded 46 1/3 innings of work across the Marlins, Angels, and Pirates organizations during that time, struggling to a 5.83 ERA with a 7.00 FIP. Control problems were the main culprit of Keller’s struggles, as evidenced by his 15% walk rate in the majors. Entering the 2022 campaign, Keller signed on with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers to become the club’s closer.
The righty impressed in that role over two seasons with the Tigers. After posting a strong 2.72 ERA in 49 2/3 innings of work in Japan during the 2022 season, Keller put together an even more impressive season in 2023, with a sterling 1.71 ERA across 26 1/3 frames. He struck out 23.7% of batters faced on the year and has even managed to rein in his control issues during his time overseas, walking just 8.8% of batters faced over the past two seasons.
Given those strong numbers during his time in Japan, it’s easy to see why MLB clubs would have interest in Keller for the 2024 campaign. While a reliever on the wrong side of thirty with a fairly limited NPB track record and previous struggles at the major league level is unlikely to land a significant multi-year deal in the majors, it’s certainly feasible that Keller could find a team willing to roll the dice on a major league contract for his services. Free agent lefty Matt Moore and Diamondbacks right-hander Scott McGough are among the examples of big leaguers who departed MLB for the NPB before returning stateside in recent years.
Phillies Reportedly “Moving Closer” To Re-Signing Aaron Nola
10:36AM: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Phillies and Aaron Nola are “moving closer” on a reunion. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki also confirmed Nightengale’s report that talks between the sides have heated up in recent days.
9:55AM: The Phillies and right-hander Aaron Nola have both made clear a desire to see the righty ace return to Philadelphia on a long-term deal this offseason, dating back to before Nola was even officially a free agent. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated this morning that there’s reason for optimism regarding a deal coming together between the two sides, noting that contract talks between the sides have “gained significant momentum” in recent days.
That, of course, doesn’t mean that an agreement between the two sides is imminent or even necessarily close, but it’s a notable development nonetheless. After all, it was just last week that reporting from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicated the sides were “not at all close” to a new deal while The Athletic’s Jayson Stark suggested that Phillies may not “go all out” to retain Nola, adding that interest from rival clubs made a seventh year on Nola’s contract possible. That’s a level the Phillies reportedly weren’t willing to go to in extension talks last spring, though it’s possible that the club has changed its tune since then.
Nightengale’s report goes on to suggest that Nola’s camp is seeking a seven-year, $210MM deal while the Phillies have countered with a six-year, $150MM offer at this point. Those price points are substantially closer than the four-to-five year pact that the Phillies reportedly offered Nola last offseason and the eight-year counter from Nola’s camp. That apparent progress in reaching a deal appears all the more encouraging with Nightengale suggesting that the sides are “getting close to finding a middle ground” between the two figures.
With one year and $60MM separating the two offers, there’s plenty of room for the sides to meet somewhere in the middle. Of note, the Phillies’ reported offer to Nola comes in just $12MM under the total guarantee left-hander Carlos Rodon secured from the Yankees last offseason over the same term, meaning virtually any movement from Philadelphia would allow Nola to secure a guarantee above that of Rodon. Speculatively speaking, the Phillies could offer Nola a higher AAV than Rodon over the same term if they’re unwilling to offer a seven-year deal to Nola, who will celebrate his 31st birthday next summer. Such a deal could fall in the $168MM to $180MM range in terms of total guarantee.
A seven-year pact would see Nola turn 37 in the final year of the deal. That’s an age the Phillies have shown a willingness to sign position players through: superstar first baseman Bryce Harper and marquee shortstop Trea Turner are signed through their age-38 and -40 seasons, respectively. That being said, the club hasn’t shown the same appetite for deals that would take pitchers into their late thirties. Zack Wheeler signed with the club on a five-year deal to become Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation, though that deal will see him hit the open market next offseason following his age-34 campaign. That’s the same age former Phillies lefty Cole Hamels was signed through when he extended with the club back in 2012.
Even a six-year pact would be breaking new ground for the Phillies; while the club signed Hall of Famer Roy Halladay through his age-36 season, that deal was for just three years and $60MM. That’s a far cry from the nine-figure deal Nola figures to land. What’s more, any movement from the Phillies’ current price point of six years and $150MM would take Nola’s contract above what MLBTR projected for the right-hander in our annual Top 50 free agents list.
Despite all of this, it’s easy to see why the Phillies would make such a plunge to retain Nola’s services. Nola’s spent nine years with the club serving as a homegrown ace since his debut with the club back in 2015. In that time, he’s compiled a career 3.72 ERA (113 ERA+) and 3.38 FIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate. Since his breakout 2018 campaign where he earned his first career All Star appearance and finished third in NL Cy Young award voting, Nola has been even more impressive with a 3.65 ERA and 28% strikeout rate. On top of that quality production, Nola is among the most durable pitchers in the entire sport: he’s thrown more than 180 innings and made at least 32 starts in each of the last five 162-game seasons. Only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings since the start of the 2018 campaign, while only Cole, Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have accumulated more fWAR than Nola’s 25.5 figure since then.
Should Nola and the Phillies ultimately come together on a new contract, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has previously indicated that the club’s starting rotation will be set for the 2024 campaign, likely taking Philadelphia out of the rotation market for the rest of the offseason. If a deal between the sides doesn’t get done, however, the club figures to be aggressive in looking to replace Nola with NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the club’s reported hypothetical targets. Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray are among the other potential top-of-the-rotation arms to be had on the free agent market, though Stark reports the club is “lukewarm” on Snell. The trade market could hold other alternatives to Nola for the Phils, such as Brewers ace Corbin Burnes or White Sox righty Dylan Cease.
Dietrich Enns To Sign With KBO’s LG Twins
Former big league left-hander Dietrich Enns is finalizing a deal with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, per Dan Kurtz of My KBO. The terms of the contract are not yet known.
Enns, 32, was selected by the Yankees in the 19th-round of the draft back in 2012. Enns was swapped to the Twins in 2017 and made his major league debut that same year, though he struggled to a 6.75 ERA in just four innings of work. The lefty spent the next several seasons in the minor leagues, bouncing between the Twins, Padres, and Rays organizations before returning to the big leagues in 2021 with Tampa Bay. Enns found more success with the Rays that season, pitching well in multi-inning relief. In 22 1/3 innings of work across nine appearances, Enns posted a 2.82 ERA with an even stronger 2.32 FIP, striking out 28.4% of batters faced while walking just 6.8%.
Despite that strong performance in 2021, Enns was unable to secure a big league role for the 2022 season and instead departed for a role overseas, joining the Seibu Lions of Japan’s NPB. Enns pitched very well for the Lions in his first NPB season, with a 2.94 ERA in 122 1/3 innings of work across 22 starts. Unfortunately, that success did not carry over to 2023 as the lefty struggled to a 5.17 ERA in just 54 innings of work.
Still, Enns’s success in both the majors in 2021 and NPB in 2022 make him an interesting addition to the Twins, who Kim Geun-han of MK Sports indicates hope that Enns can replace five-year MLB veteran Adam Plutko on the club’s pitching staff for the 2024 campaign. Plutko, for his part, is hoping to return to stateside ball this offseason after posting a 2.49 ERA across 49 starts in Korea the past two seasons.
Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade
After a brutal 2023 season that saw the White Sox lose 101 games and finish fourth in a weak AL Central division, change is in the air on Chicago’s south side. Newly-minted GM Chris Getz made clear earlier this month that the club is operating with no untouchables on the roster. While there’s plenty of players on the White Sox roster who could garner interest in trade, including center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and DH Eloy Jimenez, perhaps the most discussed among those names is right-hander Dylan Cease, who the club reportedly fielded calls on ahead of this year’s trade deadline.
While no deal came together back then, it’s Cease is certainly still an attractive potential trade candidate for clubs in need of a rotation upgrade. While Cease struggled badly over the last two months of the 2023 as his ERA ballooned to 4.58 on the season, the underlying metrics surrounding Cease’s performance provide more reason for optimism. After all, his 27.3% strikeout rate this season left him tied with Mariners ace Luis Castillo for the eighth-highest figure in the majors this year among qualified starters, just ahead of front-of-the-rotation starters like Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.
While his 10.1% walk rate certainly left something to be desired, Cease’s strand rate of just 69.4% can’t be ignored as a contributing factor to his struggles in 2023. Only four pitchers (Jordan Lyles, Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, and Miles Mikolas) had a higher percentage of their batters come around to score than Cease this season. If the sequencing of Cease’s baserunners had produced a strand rate more in line with his career mark of 74.6%, it’s reasonable to think Cease would have been far more productive in 2023, and could be in line for better fortunes in 2024.
Even accounting for his difficult 2023 season, Cease has been one of the league’s most impressive starters over the past three seasons. Since the start of the 2021 season, Cease leads all pitchers with 97 games started and clocks in at 15th with 526 2/3 innings of work over that time. Between that volume of work and Cease’s strong production (3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP), only seven pitchers have produced more fWAR than Cease over the past three seasons: Wheeler, Cole, Nola, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, and Sandy Alcantara. In addition to being a part of that elite company, Cease won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign and is projected for a salary of just $8.8MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz next season, making him an affordable addition for even small-market clubs looking to add a front-of-the-rotation arm.
Given Cease’s affordability and multiple years of control, he figures to be an attractive alternative to an expensive multi-year deal for a front-end arm like Nola, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery this offseason, particularly for clubs with significant budgetary restrictions. He’s certainly not a fit for every club, however. The A’s, Royals, Angels, Rockies and Nationals are all unlikely to contend during Cease’s remaining window of control, while some up-and-coming clubs like the Marlins, Guardians, Tigers, and Pirates have far more pressing needs on their roster that seem likely to take priority over adding a win-soon, front-end arm like Cease.
The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Brewers, meanwhile, are all teams that contended in 2023 but are much more in need of lineup upgrades than an arm to bolster the rotation, making them likely to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While teams like the Cubs, Twins, and Mets are all decent fits, the unlikelihood of a White Sox blockbuster with a division or crosstown rival (particularly the same one they acquired Cease from in 2017) and the Mets’ uncertain timeline for competitiveness make them less likely to land Cease as well, particularly in what could be such a crowded field of potential suitors. That still leaves 14 clubs that could at least plausibly have considerable interest in Cease’s services this offseason. A look at each of those teams…
Best Fits:
- Braves: The Braves and White Sox have already gotten together on one fairly significant trade this offseason, and could make plenty of sense to do so again. With Kyle Wright out for the 2024 season and subsequently shipped off to Kansas City, the Braves are looking somewhat thin in the rotation with little certainty behind a front three of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton. An acquisition of Cease could take pressure off Morton as he enters his age-40 campaign as well as youngsters like Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver. Meanwhile, young infielder Vaughn Grissom is blocked by Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia up the middle in Atlanta but could immediately step into an everyday role at second base for the White Sox in 2024.
- Cardinals: The Cardinals have made it clear they’re on the hunt for starting pitching this offseason, and swinging a deal for Cease could allow them to add a quality arm at a price that wouldn’t take them out of the running for an additional arm in free agency like Nola or Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a bevy of big-league ready talent blocked at the major league level they could deal from, ranging from catching prospect Ivan Herrera to reclamation outfielder Dylan Carlson.
- Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champs could certainly do with an upgrade to their rotation in 2024, which features little certainty beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Brandon Pfaadt showed flashes of untapped potential as the club’s third starter throughout the playoffs, but after posting a 5.72 ERA in 19 regular season appearances seems best suited to a back-end role until he can prove himself further. Though the Diamondbacks have shown interest in top-of-the-market NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the club has given out just one nine-figure contract in its history. Cease would offer Arizona a far more affordable option to pair with Gallen at the top of the rotation, and could offer a young bat like outfielder Alek Thomas as a potential centerpiece for the deal.
- Dodgers: The Dodgers are in desperate need of rotation reinforcements with sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler in his first season post-Tommy John surgery as the club’s most reliable arms for Opening Day 2022. Though the Dodgers are among the league’s most free-spending clubs, their rumored pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation could make a trade for Cease an attractive option to fill out a spot toward the front of the club’s rotation. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have several young arms that could interest the White Sox as part of a return package, including Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan.
- Orioles: After a 101-win campaign in 2023, the Orioles figure to be more aggressive this offseason than they have in the recent past, when they’ve largely limited their additions to short-term deals for complementary players like Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. That being said, the trade market could be a better route for Baltimore to seek improvements than free agency; after all, club officials have avoided making commitments to substantial payroll increases and the team has a deep crop of big league ready position players who may be best utilized as trade capital, ranging from arb-eligible role players like Ramon Urias to former top prospects like Jordan Westburg. Meanwhile, the addition of Cease would give the club a quality front-end starter to pencil in alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish for the club’s hypothetical 2024 playoff rotation.
- Rays: The Rays are facing an all-time high payroll in 2024 and are in desperate need of rotation upgrades following long-term injuries to Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan in 2023. Cease would be an affordable option the club could bolster their rotation with, giving them additional flexibility to explore trades of right-hander Tyler Glasnow while also potentially clearing some of the club’s positional logjam, where the likes of Curtis Mead could find themselves without much playing time in 2024.
- Reds: The Reds haven’t been shy about their need for starting pitching help this offseason, and Cease makes sense for a club that regularly runs a payroll in the bottom half of the league as a potential impact arm who wouldn’t break the bank. Much like the Orioles, the Reds are deep in young infield options, with second baseman Jonathan India a prime candidate for a trade himself, to say nothing of blocked prospects like Edwin Arroyo.
Next Tier Down:
- Astros: While the Astros could certainly use pitching help this offseason after being forced to rely on rookies like Hunter Brown and JP France for much of the 2023 season, it’s fair to wonder if the club has the appetite for another pitching blockbuster just a few months after swinging a deal with the Mets to bring Justin Verlander back to Houston at the trade deadline earlier this year. What’s more, the Astros are relatively lacking in the young, big league-ready talent that the Sox might look to acquire in a Cease deal.
- Giants: The Giants are certainly in need of rotation upgrades after essentially only using Webb and veteran righty Alex Cobb as regular starting pitchers for most of the 2023 campaign. That being said, the Giants certainly have money to spend after last offseason’s failed bids for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. With plenty of holes to fill on the roster, San Francisco may be better suited for an aggressive pursuit of free agent starters than giving up near-term youngsters in a deal for Cease.
- Padres: San Diego’s rumored budgetary issues this offseason are well-documented at this point, and it’s possible the club could need to clear more payroll before taking on even Cease’s relatively modest $8.8MM projected salary. That being said, president of baseball operations AJ Preller is well known for his aggressiveness on the trade market, and a deal for Cease would certainly be more cost-effective than, for example, re-signing Snell to a nine-figure contract.
- Phillies: The Phillies are in need of a top-of-the-rotation arm after the departure of Nola in free agency, but re-signing him appears to be the club’s top priority this offseason. That makes Philadelphia attempting to swing a deal for Cease fairly unlikely, particularly given the club’s relative lack of big-league ready prospect talent with whom they could attempt to make a trade.
- Rangers: The reigning AL champs could certainly stand to upgrade their rotation after losing Montgomery to free agency, but much like their division rivals in Houston, the Rangers just swung a blockbuster to bring Max Scherzer to Arlington this past summer. What’s more, the club may be expecting Jacob deGrom back from Tommy John surgery sometime next year and already has a plausible five-man rotation of Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for Opening Day 2024.
- Red Sox: The Red Sox are clearly looking for a front-end starter to add to their rotation, and the clubs famously got together on a blockbuster deal during the 2016-17 offseason that sent Chris Sale to Boston. Despite that history, however, the Red Sox could be better off adding a long-term contract via free agency than spending prospect capital to acquire just two seasons of Cease, particularly given the club’s last-place finish in the AL East this past season.
- Yankees: Much like their archrival Red Sox, the Yankees are clearly in the market for pitching upgrades this offseason. The Yankees are also a club that could certainly benefit from a shorter-term arrangement like the one Cease would provide, given the club’s several megadeals for players like Judge, Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Giancarlo Stanton. That being said, the club is seemingly reluctant to deal young, big league ready talent like Oswald Peraza, though it’s at least feasible a deal could come together surrounding prospects further from the majors like Spencer Jones and Chase Hampton.
Central Notes: Reds, Cubs, Baez
The Reds enjoyed a 2023 season in which they exceeded expectations, spending the summer in the mix for a playoff spot despite ultimately falling just short with an 82-80 record. With a bevy of young infielders led by Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, the club appears poised to potentially take another step forward in 2023. One key area in need of improvement, however, is the pitching staff: Cincinnati’s team ERA of 4.83 was the sixth-worst figure in the majors, and only the A’s and Rockies saw their rotation post a worse ERA than the Reds’ 5.43 figure. That rotation ERA is made all the more glaring by the fact that Reds starters combined for just 787 innings of work this year, 23rd in the majors.
Of course, that body of work from the rotation ignores the injury woes of promising young arms like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who could combine with fellow youngsters Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips can fill out a rotation that, at least on paper, looks better than this year’s bottom-three production would imply. While it’s certainly feasible that steps forward from young arms and health from Greene and Lodolo could provide Cincinnati with a serviceable rotation in 2024, Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed comments from president of baseball operations Nick Krall today that indicate the Reds will look to add to their rotation this winter, taking advantage of an unusually deep free agent class for pitching.
Per Goldsmith, Krall told reporters that the Reds will look to add “some sort of blend of quality and quantity” to their pitching staff this winter, while noting that the club’s young arms can already provide the club with upside. Krall’s comments particularly seemed to indicate that the club is interested in pitchers who can both pitch out of the rotation and the bullpen as needed. That sort of swing arm is certainly in supply this offseason, with former Reds Michael Lorenzen and Alex Wood joined by the likes of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, and Jakob Junis among the arms who fit that description. Signing a swing arm could make plenty of sense for a Reds club that has several interesting young arms who figure to get looks in the rotation next year but is nonetheless clearly in need of a veteran presence who can provide reliable innings in the event of injury or under performance from the club’s youngsters.
More from around MLB’s Central divisions…
- The Cubs‘ coaching staff has largely been in flux since the club brought in Craig Counsell to take over for David Ross as manager, but Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times reports that at least two of Ross’s coaches will be retaining their positions under Counsell: hitting coach Dustin Kelly and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy. Kelly is the latest in a long line of Cubs hitting coaches in recent years; he became the eighth person to hold the role over the past twelve seasons upon taking the role for the 2023 campaign. Hottovy, meanwhile, is a much longer-tenured part of the Cubs organization. He first joined the organization back in 2014 before being elevated to the role of pitching coach in 2018. Counsell will be the third manager Hottovy serves under, joining both Ross and Joe Maddon.
- Tigers shortstop Javier Baez is coming off perhaps the worst season of his career in 2023, having slashed a brutal .222/.267/.325 in 547 trips to the plate this year. That was the second-worst offensive performance from a qualified regular in baseball last year by measure of wRC+; Baez’s 61 figure, which was 39% worse than league average, clocked in just barely ahead of former White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson‘s 60 wRC+. Brutal as the 2023 season was for Baez, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press relays that Baez is planning to spend much of his offseason stateside this winter rather than return to his home in Puerto Rico, as he typically does after the season comes to an end. During his time stateside, Petzold indicates that Baez plans to focus on strengthening his back and core muscles to recapture the athleticism that allowed him to connect for 86 home runs from 2017-2019, the fourth highest figure among qualified shortstops during that time span. If Baez, 31 next month, can successfully combat father time and recapture the power that carried his offensive profile in his youth, that would provide a massive boost to a Tigers team that finished bottom four in the majors with a team-wide wRC+ of just 89 in 2023.