The Opener: Giants, Rule 5, Mid-Rotation Market
The stove is so hot that we couldn’t even get this post out this morning! Judge, Quintana, Jansen, Contreras! Here’s what else we’re looking at:
1. How Will The Giants React To Missing Out On Judge?
Perhaps the biggest news of the offseason came in this morning, as reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees on a monster contract. In yesterday’s Opener, we discussed how the Judge decision was likely holding up most of the remaining top players on the market. With Judge’s decision now made, it’s possible we’ll see movement on other top players, and any such movement will likely involve the Giants and Padres, the losing bidders on Judge. The Giants signed Mitch Haniger last night, but San Francisco will likely be thinking much bigger with regard to future pursuits, as they’ve been connected to Carlos Correa at the top of the shortstop market, have interest in bringing back Carlos Rodón, the top pitcher left on the market, and may turn to Brandon Nimmo in their pursuit of a second outfield signing. Nimmo, of course, is the top outfield free agent available now that Judge has signed. With the Giants reportedly having offered Judge a deal in the range of $360MM, they should have plenty of money available for pursuits of any of these top free agents.
2. The Rule 5 Draft Is Today
The Winter Meetings are set to end today, and they’ll likely feature the same flurry of activity the past two days had. Today won’t be entirely the same, however, as the Rule 5 draft will occur at 4 PM CT this afternoon. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Teams must have space on their 40-man to accommodate their Rule 5 selections. Currently, the 40-man rosters of the Angels, D-Backs, Rangers, Rays and Royals are full. This year’s Rule 5 draft is of particular note because the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft did not occur last year, leaving more players than usual freshly vulnerable in the draft this time. Between the Rule 5 draft and a likely third straight busy day of rumors and signings, the final day of this year’s Winter Meetings looks to be one to watch. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!
3. Who’s Left On The Mid-Rotation Market?
Yesterday saw the market for mid-rotation starters heat up in a big way, as the Rangers signed Andrew Heaney, the Phillies inked Taijuan Walker and the Cubs landed Jameson Taillon. It isn’t slowing down today, with the Mets and José Quintana agreeing on a deal. Walker and Taillon landed similar deals of four years, with Walker’s $72MM slightly outdoing Taillon’s $68MM, while Heaney took a different approach to his free agency, settling for a guarantee of just two years, $25MM in order to secure an opt-out that will allow him to test free agency again next offseason if he so chooses. In any case, the deals indicate that the market has gotten much stronger for mid-rotation starters since Tyler Anderson‘s three year, $39MM deal with the Angels last month. With prices soaring, the supply of mid-rotation options in free agency is shrinking rapidly, with Kodai Senga and Chris Bassitt the best options remaining behind Rodón, the last remaining ace. Looking a bit further down the free agency tier list, the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea also remain on the market. Any of these pitchers could see their markets heat up as the Winter Meetings come to a close, now that the mid-rotation market has been established and their fellow free agents are beginning to sign.
The Opener: Top Free Agent Logjam, Cardinals, Draft Lottery
With the Winter Meetings fully underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. Will the logjam at the top of the market loosen?
Even after Trea Turner and Justin Verlander came off the board, much of the top of the free-agent market could hinge on Aaron Judge. With the full attention of two major-market teams on Judge — the Yankees and Giants — some players at the top of the market may not sign until the reigning AL MVP has made a decision. Carlos Rodon, for example, has received interest from both the Yankees and Giants. It would be reasonable for him to want to wait until Judge makes a decision, in case missing out on Judge puts additional pressure on the losing bidder to get a deal done with him. Brandon Nimmo, the second-best outfielder on the market, is in a similar position. While Turner signed ahead of Judge, it’s certainly possible that the rest of the shortstop market could be held up by Judge, too. The Giants are known to have interest in Carlos Correa, and the Yankees could conceivably pivot to the shortstop market should Judge depart. That could also gum things up for the Twins, who are aggressive in their attempts to retain Correa but could pivot to Xander Bogaerts if Correa leaves. The Cubs, meanwhile, have been connected to each of Correa, Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, with rumors yesterday even suggesting they could try and lure two of the three remaining shortstops to Wrigley. Though not as frequently connected to the shortstops as Chicago, the Cardinals have been mentioned as a potential suitor (for Swanson in particular), and the Dodgers could potentially look to replace Turner now that he’s agreed to join the Phillies.
2. Will the Cardinals find their catcher?
Yesterday, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters that the team hopes to have a new starting catcher by the end of the Winter Meetings tomorrow. The Cardinals have been connected to A’s catcher Sean Murphy, as well as free agents such as Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez. The Cards are sure to have competition on all of these fronts, however. Murphy is being pursued by the Rays and Guardians, among other teams, while Contreras has been linked to the Astros repeatedly, with manager Dusty Baker noting the team’s interest. Vazquez, meanwhile, is known to have more than half a dozen suitors and may pursue a pact for as many as four years this offseason. Should St. Louis miss on these options, they could pivot to free-agent catchers in the next tier, such as Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez, or they could swing a trade with the Blue Jays, who are open to dealing a catcher with three on their roster: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno (with Jansen the most oft-rumored name to be available).
3. The MLB Draft Lottery is tonight.
In addition to the usual hot stove rumblings that accompany the Winter Meetings, at 7:30pm CT this evening, the inaugural MLB draft lottery will be held, where the top six spots in the 2023 MLB draft will be decided. The Nationals, A’s, Pirates, Reds, and Royals each have at least a 10% chance of landing the top pick in the draft, but every team that missed the postseason in 2022 has a chance, however small, to pick first in next year’s draft. Looking at the larger lottery as a whole shows that Washington, Oakland, and Pittsburgh have an 81% chance to pick somewhere in the top six, while the Brewers, the team with the best record to miss the postseason, have just a 2.1% chance to pick in the top six. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!
The Opener: Winter Meetings, Top Arms, Murphy
With the biggest event of the baseball offseason underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. The Winter Meetings are underway
Today marks the first full day of the Winter Meetings, with executives, agents, and players around baseball having convened in San Diego to do business. The day is sure to be rife with rumors fresh from the hot stove, with the potential for a new deal to break at any minute. Much of the focus is on Aaron Judge, particularly in the wake of multiple reports that he could have a deal in hand some point before the Winter Meetings end. The free-agent shortstop quartet of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will also dominate headlines this week, and Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that center fielder Brandon Nimmo is in San Diego for face-to-face meetings with interested teams. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!
2. Could the top of the pitching market keep moving forward?
Jacob deGrom‘s five-year deal with the Rangers takes one of the most talented pitchers on the planet off the free agent market, but two aces are still available to be signed: reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, and lefty ace Carlos Rodon. Both hurlers had phenomenal years in 2022, with Verlander’s 1.75 ERA in 2022 leading all of baseball and Rodon’s 2.25 FIP doing the same. The Mets appear to be among the most heavily involved on both players after losing deGrom to Texas, but they’re hardly lacking in competition. Verlander has been repeatedly connected to the Dodgers, and the Blue Jays been mentioned as another possible suitor for a second straight offseason. Rodon, on the other hand, reportedly has as many as nine teams interested, with the Orioles among those most recently connected to him. What’s more, the Rangers may still be interested in signing the lefty even after acquiring deGrom. While a team signing two players at the same position at the top of the market is typically rare, the Rangers should not be counted out, having done so as recently as last offseason when they inked both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to massive deals.
3. Will the A’s deal Murphy soon?
Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos quashed rumors that his club could be on the verge of landing catcher Sean Murphy in a deal with the A’s last night, but Oakland is still actively discussing trades with several interested suitors. It’s been widely expected that the A’s will trade Murphy this offseason, with the team in the midst of a rebuild and flush with options behind the plate. Top prospect Shea Langeliers already reached the big league level in 2022, while fellow top prospect Tyler Soderstrom climbed from Class-A Advanced to Triple-A in 2022. The Guardians, Rays, Red Sox and Cardinals are among the teams known to have interest in Murphy, all of whom have the stockpile of prospects and young talent necessary to swing such a deal.
The Opener: Adames, Senga, Yoshida
While folks around the world do their Black Friday shopping, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on in the baseball world in the coming days:
1. Willy Adames Likely Staying Put
Early in the offseason, there had been speculation that the Brewers might deal shortstop Willy Adames, who represented an intriguing, low-cost alternative to the top four shortstops on the free agent market. This outcome has become far less likely in recent days, however, as it was recently reported that Adames and Milwaukee have engaged in extension discussions. While no extension seems imminent, when combined with Jeff Passan of ESPN’s report that the Brewers are hoping to build around Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff this winter, the contract discussions certainly seem to indicate Adames will be playing for the Brewers on Opening Day 2023. If the Brewers have truly decided to hold onto Adames, that would further limit the shortstop market this offseason, with Elvis Andrus and Andrelton Simmons representing the second tier of options available to clubs who miss on Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
2. Kodai Senga Meeting With Teams
Right-hander Koudai Senga has drawn widespread interest across MLB as he prepares to make the jump from Japan this offseason. Recently, he has begun taking meetings with teams, including the Padres, Mets, and, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Rangers. Those three teams are far from the only ones with known interest in Senga, however, as the Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are just a few of the teams who have been connected to Senga this offseason. Senga’s preference is reportedly to play in a big market with a chance to win right now, so it’s no wonder that the teams that have been most aggressively connected to him are the larger markets in the sport. Now that the offseason slowdown that comes with Thanksgiving is out of the way, it’s possible we will begin to see Senga meeting with more teams in the coming days.
3. When Will Masataka Yoshida Be Posted?
It has been reported that NPB slugger Masataka Yoshida will be posted for MLB teams to sign this offseason, with multiple teams, including the Yankees and Blue Jays, already showing interest. The window to post players typically ends on December 5th, meaning there’s less than two weeks left for Yoshida’s Buffaloes to post him, beginning his thirty day negotiation window with big league clubs. When posted, Yoshida will join a corner outfield market littered with both talented players and age- or injury-related concerns about many of those talented players, potentially making Yoshida, 29, one of the most attractive options on the market behind Aaron Judge. Still, as with any player making the jump from Japan to stateside ball, there will be questions about just how much of his elite production in Japan will transfer over into the majors. Whenever Yoshida ends up being posted, his market will be among the most interesting to follow this offseason.
The Opener: Thanksgiving Signings, Harper, Chats, Free Agent List
As the offseason continues to chug along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout baseball today:
1. Will Any Deals Get Closed Before The Holiday?
The days leading up to Thanksgiving have, in previous offseasons, seen a small spike in activity, as free agents who are looking to have their new team settled ahead of the holidays try to push deals across the finish line. In the past few offseasons, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Loup, Kyle Gibson, Drew Pomeranz, Yan Gomes and Charlie Morton have all agreed to terms within 48 hours of Thanksgiving. This can apply to the trade market as well, as the Angels’ acquisition of Hunter Renfroe just last night shows. In addition to last night’s deal, recent offseasons have seen the Rockies and Reds connect on a swap of relievers and the Padres and Brewers complete a four-player trade involving all big leaguers, among other smaller trade agreements.
2. Bryce Harper‘s Surgery Is Today
Recently extended Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski announced last week that star outfielder Bryce Harper will undergo surgery on his elbow today to repair a damaged ulnar collateral ligament. This is of particular note because the team and doctors alike won’t be certain whether Harper requires a full ligament replacement (Tommy John surgery) or an internal brace procedure until he actually goes under the knife, leaving his timetable for return uncertain to this point. Once today’s procedure is complete, there will be far more clarity on how much time Harper can be expected to miss in 2023.
3. A Few MLBTR Features
The final two Offseason Chats will be held today, putting the finishing touches on MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a team-specific chat for the reigning World Series champion Astros at 11am CT today, while Steve Adams will hosting an A’s-specific chat later in the day at 2pm CT. Astros fans can click here to leave a question for Anthony in advance and, in the meantime, check out the Astros’ Offseason Outlook. A’s fans can leave a question in advance here and go back through Oakland’s Offseason Outlook for a refresher, if you like. Regardless of which club you follow, if you’re looking ahead to the meat of your team’s offseason, it’s also worth noting that our 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List has been updated to include last week’s wave of non-tendered players. You can check that out for a comprehensive look at who’s available on a position-by-position basis. (Note: the incorrect link to the free agent list has been updated; apologies on the error)
The Opener: Judge, Bellinger, Offseason Outlooks
As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Judge To Meet With Giants
Later today, top free agent Aaron Judge will meet with Giants brass in San Francisco. This marks the first meeting Judge has been reported to be taking with a team besides the Yankees, who made Judge a new offer last week. Rumors have long swirled that the Giants would be aggressive with their financial might this offseason, and team officials have done little to dissuade that thinking with their public comments. Their pursuit of Judge, the offseason’s premier free agent who grew up a Giants fan in the area, is no surprise. In addition to the Yankees, the Giants are likely to face competition for Judge from their divisional rival Dodgers, whose interest in Judge has been reported occasionally throughout the offseason thus far.
2. Cody Bellinger‘s Market Developing
Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, former NL MVP Cody Bellinger has found a fairly strong market for himself due to this offseason’s dearth of available center fielders. He’s fielded calls from teams since the hour after his non-tender, and while those conversations have supposedly included multi-year interest, his preference is toward a one-year pact. The Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs are among the teams who have been connected to Bellinger, and it seems likely plenty more will arise over the course of his free agency. Beyond Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier (who’s recovering from hip surgery) and top free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo, there aren’t many viable regulars on this year’s free-agent market.
3. Offseason Outlooks Set To Wrap Up
The Offseason Outlook series is one of MLBTR’s biggest offseason projects, and after covering the Giants and the Phillies yesterday, the series will wrap with coverage of the Astros later today. While that will mark the end of Offseason Outlook posts for the year, be sure to keep an eye out for the team-focused Offseason Outlook chats, which will also be completed shortly. In addition to the Astros, A’s and Rangers fans can look forward to an Offseason Chat over the next couple days. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a Rangers-specific chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit an early question here and also use that link to join the chat once it’s underway (and to read the transcript once it’s completed). Fans of other teams can check out previous Offseason Outlook posts and team-specific chats here.
The Opener: Hall of Fame, Twins, Angels
As Friday’s non-tender deadline enters the rear-view mirror and the offseason rolls along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball:
1. Hall of Fame Ballot Announced
The official Hall of Fame ballot for 2023 is set to be released today, and for the first time in 10 years, it won’t have Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Curt Schilling on it. Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez will be eligible for the first time in 2023, while Jeff Kent enters his final year of eligibility. Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner each received over 50% of the vote last year, and could be names to watch this year in addition to the newcomers. While Alex Rodriguez will enter his second year of eligibility in 2023, he’ll need a massive showing on this year’s ballot to get on the radar for Cooperstown consideration after just a 34.3% showing in his inaugural year on the ballot. Although Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling won’t be on this year’s ballot, they could still join the Hall of Fame in 2023, as the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee will consider the three of them (as well as five others) during the Winter Meetings in December.
2. Will The Twins Re-Sign Correa?
The Twins made a few major changes to their infield mix before Friday’s non-tender deadline, as they shipped Gio Urshela out in a trade with the Angels while swinging a deal to bring in Kyle Farmer from the Reds. If no further changes to the infield mix are made, Minnesota would likely start the season with Jose Miranda at third base, Jorge Polanco at second, and Luis Arraez at first, with Farmer set to hold down shortstop until Royce Lewis returns from injury. With Lewis set to return sometime next season and 2022 draftee Brooks Lee already at Double-A, the Twins could conceivably be content to hand Farmer the keys to the position, transitioning him to more of a utility role once one of the youngsters is ready to displace him. There’s been mutual interest in a Correa reunion, but with big-market teams such as the Dodgers, Cubs, and Giants rumored to be looking to land a shortstop, it’s easy to see how the Twins could lose a bidding war. Still, it seems unlikely that the acquisition of a possible stopgap at shortstop would change Minnesota’s plans much with regards to Correa. Darren Wolfson of KSTP and 1500 SKOR North chatted with Twins president/CEO Dave St. Peter and center fielder Byron Buxton (video link) about the potential for a Correa reunion at last week’s event to unveil new Twins uniforms. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote earlier in the month that the Twins would likely pursue Xander Bogaerts in the event that Correa signs elsewhere.
3. What’s Next For Angels After Urshela?
On the other end of the Urshela deal, the Angels have a more stable infield mix following his acquisition. Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh figure to get the lion’s share of starts at the corners, assuming their injury woes in 2022 don’t follow them into next season. That leaves Urshela, David Fletcher, and Luis Rengifo to mix and match between second base, shortstop, and filling in at the corners. A prominent shortstop addition still remains possible, but the Angels can also turn their attention to the outfield, where they currently project to send out Jo Adell in left, Mike Trout in center, and Taylor Ward in right. While such an outfield configuration would be far from a disaster, after a trade of Brandon Marsh to the Phillies, the Angels lack depth; currently, Mickey Moniak projects to be their fourth outfielder. Trout will lock up center when healthy, but adding a corner bat to provide protection against continued struggles from Adell would make sense. A lefty such as David Peralta would help the Angels balance their righty-heavy outfield mix, though speculatively speaking, Trey Mancini could be an interesting fit as a player who can play the outfield corners while also providing Walsh platoon protection at first base. Both the Urshela trade and the recent signing of Tyler Anderson have deepened the Angels’ roster while leaving the door open for further moves of note. Deepening the outfield mix in similar fashion would be a sensible next step.
The Opener: Non-Tender Deadline, Bellinger, Diamondbacks
With yet another offseason deadline upon us, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball today:
1. The Non-Tender Deadline Is Today
This offseason’s non-tender deadline is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Typically, the focus of the n0n-tender deadline is arbitration level players, though it’s not unheard of for pre-arbitration players to be non-tendered as well. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections provide a comprehensive list of arbitration-eligible players across MLB and their projected 2023 salaries. Some teams have taken steps to address roster concerns ahead of the non-tender deadline, such as the Rays preemptively trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates. In some cases, a club and its player will come to an agreement prior to the non-tender deadline, as several already did yesterday (e.g. Cardinals and Chris Stratton). There’s plenty of teams with lots of decisions left to make as the deadline approaches, however, including the Brewers, who have a massive arbitration class of 18 players.
2. What Will The Dodgers Do With Bellinger?
Perhaps the most significant decision any team faces due to today’s deadline is that of the Dodgers on former MVP Cody Bellinger. Just a few years ago, he was widely considered one of the sport’s brightest stars, but back-to-back disastrous seasons at the plate, combined with Bellinger’s projected $18.1MM salary for 2023, could give the Dodgers pause about retaining him for next season. Bellinger still has value as a plus baserunner and excellent glove in the field, but his .193/.256/.355 slash line since the start of the 2021 season inspires little confidence in his bat going forward. As one of the game’s financial powerhouses, the Dodgers could conceivably be more comfortable taking a risk of this nature than most teams; a one-year, $18.1MM contract would not be quite as painful for them as it would be for others should Bellinger struggle again in 2023. If the Dodgers ultimately do non-tender Bellinger, his free agency will be a fascinating one to follow, as he would join a thin center field market behind top option Brandon Nimmo.
3. Lewis Trade Furthers Outfield Logjam In Arizona
Yesterday’s Opener discussed how Seattle’s recent trade for Teoscar Hernandez added to a logjam in their outfield and suggested they may look to trade from that newfound depth in the coming days. That came to pass rather quickly as the Mariners dealt 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis to the Diamondbacks yesterday in exchange for Cooper Hummel. Lewis has struggled following his breakout 2020 campaign due to a number of significant injuries, but the acquisition of a player of his talents could certainly address Arizona’s desire for additional right-handed power in 2023. While Lewis does check a box on GM Mike Hazen’s offseason shopping list, the trade also adds to Arizona’s own outfield logjam. Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho are likely set in center and right field, leaving Jake McCarthy, former top prospect Alek Thomas, Dominic Fletcher and Lewis (who could also spend ample time at DH) to vie for reps. Furthermore, if Lewis indeed occupies the DH slot for a significant portion of his playing time, perhaps no player is as impacted by Arizona’s newest acquisition than Seth Beer, who struggled in limited playing time in 2022 and could see his further opportunities limited further going forward. Carroll and Varsho are overwhelmingly unlikely to move, but the D-backs should still receive interest in the remainder of their outfield/DH options. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a deeper look at Arizona’s outfield logjam back in September.
The Opener: MVP Awards, Outfield Market, Top 50
As MLB’s awards season draws to a close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. MVP Results Announced Tonight
The final award announcements for the 2022-23 season are coming tonight, with the AL and NL Most Valuable Player awards being announced at 5:00 PM CT. The finalists in the AL are Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez, while the NL finalists are Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Manny Machado. The AL race this year was a particularly remarkable one, with historic seasons pitted against each other; Ohtani arguably improved on his 2021 AL MVP campaign this year, while Judge delivered perhaps the best offensive season since the days of Barry Bonds. Alvarez, for his part, put up rate numbers that would be more strongly in the mix in just about any other year. Despite truly special seasons from all three finalists in the AL, though, Judge appears to be the favorite after he set a new AL home run record. Over in the NL, Goldschmidt flirted with the Triple Crown at one point, but his season finished on a low note, as he slashed just .245/.333/.383 after the calendar flipped to September. That may have slightly opened the door for Arenado and Machado, who posted extremely similar profiles to one another in 2022. Machado’s .298/.366/.531 season line is nearly indistinguishable from Arenado’s line of .293/.358/.533.
2. How The Teoscar Trade Changes The Market
Yesterday saw the Mariners and the Blue Jays work out a trade to send Teoscar Hernandez to Seattle, potentially shaking up the outfield market in a significant way. With Hernandez no longer penciled into right field every day, the Blue Jays are now even more likely to pursue outfield help, with George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. their only regular outfielders as things stand. Both Cavan Biggio and Whit Merrifield saw time in the outfield last year, but with the Blue Jays already rumored to be in the market for another outfielder even before yesterday’s trade, they’ll likely only be more aggressive in their pursuit as the offseason progresses. The other side of the trade has implications for the market as well, as Seattle is now even more deeper in outfield options. Hernandez will likely slot into right field with Julio Rodriguez in center and Jesse Winker (assuming he himself isn’t traded) in left, but the Mariners have Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, and Sam Haggerty further down the depth chart, to say nothing of prospects Cade Marlowe and Zach DeLoach, who could be ready for big league action sometime next year. Needless to say, Seattle’s glut of outfielders could draw trade interest, and the addition of Hernandez makes it all the likelier that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will deal from that depth.
3. Talking Top 50 with Rob Bradford
MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents list and predictions dropped last week, and entries for our Free Agent Prediction contest were due last night — but that doesn’t mean all things Top 50-related are in the rearview mirror just yet. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams joined Rob Bradford of Audacy Sports and WEEI on the “Baseball Isn’t Boring” podcast to discuss the Top 50 list and the free-agent class at large. You can listen to their appearance here, and you can follow Baseball Isn’t Boring and follow Rob on Twitter.
The Opener: Cy Young Awards, Free Agent Contest, Starting Pitching Market
In the wake of yesterday’s deadlines, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the baseball world today:
1. Cy Young Award Results Announced Tonight
Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Cy Young awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Justin Verlander, Dylan Cease, and Alek Manoah are the finalists. Verlander led all of baseball with an ERA of just 1.75 this year and stands as the likely favorite over Cease and Manoah, despite their own impressive seasons. One thing Cease and Manoah have going for them is volume: Both made more than 30 starts in 2022, while Verlander made just 28. Over in the NL, Sandy Alcantara, Max Fried, and Julio Urias are the three finalists. Alcantara is the clear favorite here after pitching a whopping 228 2/3 innings in 2022, pacing all of baseball by more than 20 innings. Alcantara’s season wasn’t just about volume, however; he was also dominant, posting a 2.28 ERA and 2.99 FIP on the year. Urias posted a lower ERA than Alcantara, leading the NL with a 2.16 mark (though his 3.71 FIP tells a somewhat different story), while Fried beats out Alcantara in terms of FIP with a 2.70. Neither one managed to beat Alcantara in both categories, though, and both trail him by more than 40 innings pitched in 2022.
2. MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest Submissions Close Tonight
Today is the last day you can sign up for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest. For this contest, you’ll predict where our Top 50 Free Agents will go, with cash prizes awarded to the top three finishers and a one year membership to Trade Rumors Front Office available to everyone who finishes in the Top 15. Much of the MLBTR staff also participates, so you can see how your predictions stack up compared to those of our writers!
3. Anderson, Martinez Deals Signal Movement On The Starting Pitching Market
Yesterday’s qualifying offer deadline spurred movement on the starting pitching market, as Martin Perez accepted the QO from the Rangers, re-upping with them on the one year, $19.65MM deal. Tyler Anderson, meanwhile, agreed to a three-year, $39MM deal with the Angels in lieu of accepting the QO from the Dodgers. This move came as something of a surprise; Anderson was predicted to accept the QO by the MLBTR team along with Perez and Joc Pederson, both of whom did so. That Anderson earned a $39MM guarantee may indicate that the strong market relievers have found this offseason could extend to starters, though early deals have a tendency to be strong, and that momentum doesn’t always carry throughout the winter. Nick Martinez, meanwhile, secured a three-year deal with the Padres that’ll guarantee him a reported $26MM — comfortably outpacing the three years and $18MM from which he opted out. As for other implications across the market, the Dodgers are perhaps likelier to be in search of another arm to replace Anderson in the rotation. The Padres could yet be open to adding some rotation depth, though Martinez gives them a solid one through four on which to rely (assuming he’s indeed ticketed for the rotation). The Rangers aren’t expected to stop after retaining Perez at a premium rate; they’ll remain active players in the rotation market.