The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Deadline, Manager Of The Year
As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be watching throughout the day today:
1. Qualifying Offer Decisions Due Today
The 14 players who received qualifying offers must either accept or decline the offer by 3:00p, central time this afternoon. While most of these players will make the easy and obvious decision to reject the QO, a few players have a more interesting decision on their hands. Rangers lefty Martin Perez is an example of someone who may accept a QO, though he joins Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi as someone who is in negotiations with his 2022 club on a multi-year deal, which could be ironed out in place of the one-year, $19.65MM QO contract. Such a deal could even occur after this deadline as passed, as was the case for Jose Abreu and the White Sox after the 2019 season. Giants outfielder Joc Pederson, Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson and Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the other candidates to accept the offer, though Rizzo has already reportedly drawn strong interest from the Astros even in spite of his QO.
2. Rule 5 Deadline Looms This Evening
Teams must set their 40-man rosters in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft by 5:00pm central time this evening. Seeing as there was no major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last offseason, teams will have more prospects than usual in need of protection, potentially resulting in a larger roster crunch than usual for many teams. The Rays have already made a pair of moves to clear roster space, and are expected to make more trades before the deadline tonight. While they may be among the most active teams today, it’s safe to say most teams will be making roster moves throughout the day leading up to this evening’s deadline.
3. Manager Of The Year Results Announced Tonight
Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Terry Francona of the Guardians, Brandon Hyde of the Orioles, and Scott Servais of the Mariners are the finalists, while in the NL, it’ll be either Brian Snitker of the Braves, Dave Roberts of the Dodgers, or Buck Showalter of the Mets. Each finalist has an interesting case for the award to set themselves apart from the rest of the field. Francona’s Guardians achieved a surprise division title, overtaking the favored White Sox and Twins despite an extremely young roster and a far lower payroll than either of their division rivals. Hyde and the Orioles, despite not making the postseason, also massively overperformed expectations, staying in the postseason hunt through most of September after years of 100 loss seasons. Servais, meanwhile, led a Mariners club that ended the longest active playoff drought in the sport, bringing playoff baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001. Roberts and the Dodgers delivered a monster 111-win season that stands among the best in history, while Buck Showalter returned to the dugout to lead the Mets to a 100-win season of their own. Snitker, meanwhile, makes his case through Atlanta’s impressive September in which they ran down Showalter’s Mets for the division title. Results will be announced at 5:00pm central time this evening.
The Opener: Approaching Deadlines, Montero, Orioles
With more offseason deadlines on the horizon, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Qualifying offer, Rule 5 deadlines likely to spur movement
Two major offseason deadlines are coming tomorrow, which will likely be the focus of much of the offseason movement that happens today. Qualifying offer recipients must accept or reject the QO by 4pm EST tomorrow, and 40-man rosters must be set ahead of the Rule 5 Draft by 6pm EST tomorrow. The QO deadline could certainly see some recipients with less expected earning power, such as Joc Pederson or Martin Perez, either accept the QO or negotiate a multi-year deal with their previous team — perhaps after initially accepting, as Jose Abreu did during the 2019-20 offseason. While the names weighing the QO might garner more attention, it’s the Rule 5 deadline that will lead to more immediate action. Teams need to make room on their 40-man rosters for any prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft, which will require adding them to the 40-man roster. That forthcoming wave of additions will lead to a slew of players being designated for assignment, placed on waivers and perhaps traded, as teams create space on the fringes of their roster. This could also lead to some early non-tenders of arbitration-eligible players, as the Nov. 18 non-tender deadline is quickly approaching, too. As Mark Polishuk noted last night, the Rays figure to be one of the most proactive teams in terms of clearing up their 40-man roster in the coming days, having already shipped first baseman Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh last week.
2. Montero contract provides another data point on the relief market
In Friday’s Opener, I discussed the surprisingly strong relief market that relief pitchers have found this offseason, and how it could translate to the other relievers on the market. Rafael Montero indeed secured a third year on his new contract with the Astros, as predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list, but his $34.5MM guarantee handily exceeded expectations. If that amount doesn’t seem particularly striking to you, consider righty Kendall Graveman, another former Astros/Mariners setup man, signed a three-year $24MM deal last winter despite being a year younger at the time of signing. Montero stands as a third pricey relief re-signing, to go with Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez.
3. How aggressive will the Orioles be this offseason?
Orioles general manager Mike Elias pledged in August that payroll will rise in 2023 — though it’d be hard for it to decline much over its 2022 levels — which prompted many O’s fans to dream of marquee free-agent splashes as the team emerges from its rebuild. Over the weekend, however, Elias stated that the Orioles will not “go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” which casts doubt on whether the team will jump right into the deep end of the free-agent pool. At present, John Means‘ $2.975MM salary is the only guarantee on the Orioles’ books, though between arbitration projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster, they project for a total of about $41MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s ample space for multiple additions to the payroll, then, be it via free agency or perhaps by way of acquiring an established veteran in exchange for some minor league talent. With an impressive young core featuring the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — plus righty Grayson Rodriguez and several more top prospects looming — the Orioles appear on the cusp of a return to contention — if they can make the right moves to supplement that group. With so much payroll space available and a deep farm from which to trade for Major League talent, they’re one of the most fascinating clubs of the offseason.
The Opener: Relief Market, Kershaw, Yoshida
As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. Implications Of Diaz, Suarez Deals
The relief market has moved quickly in the early going of this offseason, with perhaps the top two options, Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez, already off the market. Both relievers re-signed with the Mets and Padres, respectively, but the more notable piece of these signings is the contracts they both managed to secure. In signing a five-year, $102MM contract, Diaz became the first reliever to receive a $100MM guarantee or an AAV of $20MM, though given his superlative platform season (1.31 ERA/0.90 FIP), there was never any doubt that he would get paid handsomely. Suarez, while a top relief arm in this offseason’s class in his own right, pales in comparison to Diaz, with a 2.27 ERA and 3.32 FIP in 47 2/3 innings in 2022, his first major league season after playing the first six years of his career in Japan. Despite his lack of major-league experience and the fact that he’ll play 2023 at the age of 32, Suarez still managed to receive a five year, $46MM deal. While the AAV is about in line with what most would have expected, San Diego’s decision to sign Suarez to a deal that guarantees him money through his age-36 season certainly registers as a surprise, particularly given that there’s also an opt-out in the deal. With perhaps the two best relievers off the market, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the relief market plays out from here. Kenley Jansen, Rafael Montero, and Taylor Rogers represent some of the top options still available, and while they were projected for just two or three year deals in MLBTR’s Top 50 list yesterday, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Suarez deal indicates the relief market may be stronger than had previously been expected.
2. Kershaw, Dodgers Close To Deal
Reports last night indicated that the Dodgers were close to re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw to another one-year contract similar to the one he received last offseason, and it’s possible said contract could be agreed upon as soon as today. This deal comes as no surprise, as Kershaw had previously mentioned that he was likely to continue playing in 2023, and despite rumors last year that he may sign with his hometown Texas Rangers, the more widely held expectation has been that if Kershaw is playing anywhere next season, it will be in Los Angeles. Should the Kershaw deal become official, the Dodgers will have additional security in their rotation headed into the meat of the offseason. Tyler Anderson (to whom the Dodgers extended a qualifying offer yesterday) and Andrew Heaney joined Kershaw in free agency after the 2022 season, leaving the club in need of more arms. Still, it’s reasonable to expect L.A. to continue searching for rotation help even with Kershaw returning for next year, particularly given his increasingly frequent trips to the injured list in recent years.
3. Masataka Yoshida Garnering Interest
It was reported last week that Nippon Professional Baseball star Masataka Yoshida may be posted by his team, the Japan Series champion Orix Buffaloes, and rumors have only grown since then. In particular, the folks at the New York Post seem confident not only that Yoshida will indeed be posted — Joel Sherman suggests such a move is expected to come next month — but that he will find considerable interest from MLB clubs. Sherman notes that Yoshida “is going to draw a lot of interest”, while Jon Heyman indicates that the Yankees, in particular, may be interested in Yoshida, whether or not they manage to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman notes that Yoshida’s lefty bat could help bring balance to a Yankees lineup that’s heavily right-handed, and stands to become even more so should they not re-sign first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Should Yoshida be posted, he would join the corner outfield market as one of the younger, more intriguing options behind Judge. Speculatively speaking, teams such as the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners are among the many who could have interest in Yoshida.
The Opener: Free Agency, MLBTR’s Top 50, Rangers
As the baseball world prepares for the offseason to kick into a higher gear this evening, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the day:
1. The Next Stage Of The Offseason Begins
At 4 PM CDT today, free agency will begin in earnest. Most importantly, that time is when free agents will be free to negotiate and sign new contracts with other clubs. It also serves as the deadline for teams to extend their outgoing players a Qualifying Offer, and for teams and players alike to make the few options decisions that remain undecided, such as those of Nick Martinez, who Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes may renegotiate his contract with San Diego, and Justin Turner. News should be expected to trickle in throughout the day leading up to 4 PM CDT, as players and teams make their final decisions and plans before the next stage of the offseason begins.
2. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents
Once that QO/option deadline passes, we at MLB Trade Rumors will put the finishes touches on our annual Top 50 Free Agents And Predictions post. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. For instance, one year ago, we predicted that Brandon Belt would accept the QO and returns to the Giants, which eventually came to pass. For most borderline QO candidates, we have seperate predictions based on whether they get the offer or not. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the unpredictable offseason.
3. Rangers Look To Fortify Rotation
The Rangers are looking to improve after a big offseason last year resulted in a record of 68-94 and a fourth place finish in the AL West in 2022, and they have no bigger need than the rotation, where they face plenty of questions as to who will slot in both in front of and behind Jon Gray. Texas shored up the back of their rotation yesterday evening in a trade with the Braves for Jake Odorizzi, but GM Chris Young will need to add more to his rotation in order to compete in 2023. The Rangers have been previously connected to lefty ace Carlos Rodon, and reports last night indicated that the club not only plans on extending Martin Perez a Qualifying Offer by today’s deadline, but is in negotiations with his camp on a multiyear deal as well. Should the Rangers be successful in their pursuits, a rotation of Rodon, Perez, Gray, Odorizzi, and a youngster such as Dane Dunning or Spencer Howard would be a significant improvement over 2022, though they’d still need to address their outfield situation to truly position themselves as contenders for 2023.
Boras On Michael Conforto’s Free Agency
Michael Conforto didn’t play a single inning or even sign with a team following last year’s qualifying offer and eventual shoulder surgery due to an offseason injury. However, agent Scott Boras tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he nevertheless feels the market can bring about a multi-year deal for his client. Boras suggests Conforto could seek a contract at least loosely modeled after the two-year deal he negotiated for Carlos Rodon with the Giants, which allowed Rodon to opt out after year one. Unsurprisingly, Boras characterizes the interest in Conforto as “so broad,” adding that he’s throwing from 120 feet and is able to generate full extension in his swing.
While Boras and Conforto could seek a contract structured similarly to that of Rodon, there are a few caveats worth emphasizing. First and foremost, Conforto can’t reasonably hope to match the $22MM annual value on Rodon’s contract and would surely be in line for a lower rate of base pay. Secondly, it should be noted that the second-year player option on Rodon’s contract was conditional; he needed to first reach 110 innings pitched before gaining the right to opt out of the deal. Any team taking the risk of signing Conforto for multiple years might prefer that he fully “earn” the right to opt out rather than make it a flat guarantee. Such clauses are generally dependent on playing time, be it in the form of games played or total plate appearances.
The comments on Conforto come after rumors percolated throughout the season that the longtime Mets outfielder would sign on with a club as a DH down the stretch, after he was detached from draft pick compensation following July’s 2022 draft. Such a deal never materialized, though Sherman notes the Astros had interest in signing him.
Conforto’s continued free agency is sure to be one of the more interesting cases to follow this offseason. Between his lost season in 2022 and a down season in 2021 where he slashed just .232/.344/.384 with a barely above-average wRC+ of 106, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Conforto. However, that’s also the case with many of his free-agent peers on the corner outfield market. While Aaron Judge‘s likely record-setting free agency highlights the class, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, and Michael Brantley all join Conforto in free agency. Of the bunch, only Profar managed a full, healthy season.
Conforto’s significant upside as a 29-year-old (30 in March) who has flashed All-Star caliber production should still create intrigue among clubs. From 2017-20, Conforto slashed an impressive .265/.369/.495 and looked to be establishing himself as one of the league’s best right fielders. It’s easy to see why a team would want to take a chance on someone with his past success, but he has competition in even that regard. Joey Gallo represents an option with similar upside, less injury concerns, and the ability to play center field if needed, though his extreme, high-strikeout profile and ghastly 2023 results are serious concerns of their own that could make Conforto a more attractive option.
Fortunately for Conforto, just as there’s a large class of quality corner outfield free agents, there’s an equally large list of teams that will likely be looking for outfield help in 2023. Whether they re-sign Judge or not, the Yankees will likely look for an upgrade on Aaron Hicks in left field so they can keep Giancarlo Stanton entrenched at DH. The White Sox are in desperate need for outfield help, with only Luis Robert fully locked into everyday outfield opportunities as Eloy Jimenez looks likely to spend more time at DH next year and Andrew Vaughn could replace Jose Abreu at first base going forward. The Rangers will likely be interested in adding to an outfield that lacks certainty beyond Adolis Garcia and Leody Taveras, the Padres may look to replace the departing Profar externally, and the Blue Jays could certainly do with an upgrade to their current tandem of Raimel Tapia and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field. Even Conforto’s former team in Queens could be in search of outfield help this offseason, with center fielder Brandon Nimmo now a free agent and Starling Marte capable of sliding over to center without issue.
The Opener: Click, Option Decisions, White Sox
As the offseason continues to chug through it’s earliest stages, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Will James Click Continue As Houston’s GM?
While Dusty Baker has accepted a one-year contract extension as Astros manager, GM James Click did not do the same when owner Jim Crane offered him a one-year extension of his own, telling reporters he is “in discussions” regarding a new contract. While it’s something of a shock that the World Series-winning general manager wouldn’t receive a multi-year extension offer, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, there has long been speculation of Crane looking for a change in the front office, which is only further fueled by reports that he shot down a deal for Cubs catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline. Heyman suggests that the Astros may have interest in David Stearns, a former Houston executive who recently stepped down from his president of baseball operations position with Milwaukee. Stearns is still under contract with the Brewers for 2023, however, so the Astros would likely need to make a minor trade along the lines of the deal between the Cubs and Red Sox to send Theo Epstein to Chicago after the 2011 season if they are to acquire his services for the 2023 season. It’s also worth noting that Stearns definitively stated upon stepping back as president he plans to remain in Milwaukee and spend more time with family.
2. Option Decisions Continue To Linger
On the eve of the deadline for options decisions, a few notable ones still linger. Perhaps the most notable player in the bunch is longtime Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, on whom the club faces a $14MM decision on. A strong second half made what once seemed like an easy decision to decline the option much less clear cut. That being said, with players like Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch waiting in the wings, the Dodgers may prefer their younger internal options going forward. A few clubs also having intriguing option decisions to make in the rotation, most notably the Mets on Carlos Carrasco and the Orioles on Jordan Lyles. Both teams are relatively thin on proven rotation arms (the Mets thanks to other potential free-agent departures), so locking up a starter for 2023 could make sense for either club. That said, the $10MM the Orioles would spend on Lyles may be better served allocated to another starter with, perhaps, a higher ceiling, while the Mets may prefer to search for a younger option for their rotation than Carrasco, who will play 2023 at age 36. Aside from Carrasco, the Mets have Max Scherzer, 38, under contract for next season and are reportedly expressing interest in reunions with Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, who are both in their mid-thirties.
3. White Sox Have Plenty Of Needs This Offseason
After a disappointing 81-81 season and with many holes to fill on the roster, the White Sox will need to be active this offseason. In addition to longtime first baseman Jose Abreu hitting free agency, outfielder AJ Pollock declined his player option in a surprising move, and Chicago declined to exercise their option on second baseman Josh Harrison. While these option decisions have saved the club some money (Pollock’s decision in particular saves Chicago $8MM), they still might not have a lot to spend this offseason. RosterResource estimates their 2023 payroll to be just over $174MM, not far below their all-time record payroll of $194MM in 2022. The Athletic’s James Fegan notes that while Hahn has expressed confidence in top prospect Oscar Colas as an outfield regular in 2023, he similarly noted the possibility that Eloy Jimenez will spend more time at DH going forward, leaving the club in position to pursue outfield options regardless of Colas’s readiness for an everyday major league role, particularly with Pollock’s departure meaning their best internal fourth outfielder is Adam Engel. Given most of the Chicago lineup is right-handed, an outfielder who can hit from the left side, such as Joc Pederson, or the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar, would make sense as a target. As for second base, Chicago’s dearth of production at the position in recent years makes them an obvious fit for Jean Segura, but a lower-cost option such as Adam Frazier could also make sense.
The Opener: Angels, Senga, Options And QO Deadline
As MLB’s offseason kicks into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Angels Won’t Trade Ohtani, But What Will They Do?
Few teams around baseball face as much uncertainty this offseason as the Angels do. Owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, and rumors of Shohei Ohtani being traded this offseason have swirled practically since the moment the trade deadline passed. Yesterday GM Perry Minasian announced that the team would not be fielding offers on Ohtani and he would remain with the team through Opening Day. With Ohtani set to test the free agent market after the 2023 season, the Angels will no doubt try to remain competitive, but a 73-89 showing in 2022 leaves Anaheim with a lot of work to do this offseason. Minasian notes that multi-year deals are on the table in spite of the club’s recent tendency toward one year agreements in previous offseasons, though it’s fair to wonder if Moreno would make major, long-term additions to a club’s payroll in the months running up to a sale. Starting pitching isn’t quite as big of a need as it has been in previous years due to the emergence of youngsters like Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, but another arm for the middle of the rotation likely ought to still be a priority. Perhaps the biggest need the Angels will have to address this offseason if they want to compete in 2023 is the bullpen, where Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup disappointed last year, and closer Raisel Iglesias was moved to the Braves at the trade deadline. Almost as important is addressing the infield; Luis Rengifo looked like a serviceable regular in 2022, but both David Fletcher and Jared Walsh struggled in 2023, and Anthony Rendon‘s injury woes in recent seasons leave third base up in the air as well. A righty-hitting complement to Walsh and a shortstop-capable bat could be other sensible additions to the Angels offseason shopping list.
2. Senga’s Market Begins To Develop
While the vast majority of free agency is still tied up in their club’s exclusive negotiating window, international free agent Koudai Senga faces no such restrictions, and a potential suitor has already emerged: the Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmeyer talked with Senga’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who noted the Cubs had been in contact with him about Senga and that Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, another Wolfe client, has “loved” his experience in Chicago thus far. Rumors about the Cubs having interest in Senga have percolated for months, and with plenty of space available in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks, they may be an attractive destination for Senga.
3. Options, Qualifying Offer Deadline Looms
As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview earlier this week, the deadline for option decisions, as well as for teams to extend the Qualifying Offer to their pending free agents, is this Thursday, November 10th. Many option decisions have already been made, with Anthony Rizzo and Jean Segura among those who have most recently hit the free agent market officially. More option decisions remain, however. One particularly interesting example is James Paxton, whose dilemma Anthony Franco discussed yesterday. Anthony also previewed the upcoming QO decisions last week, with the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Mitch Haniger among the most interesting borderline cases. For a refresher on what draft picks are at stake with regards to the QO, you can check out Tim Dierkes’s post on the matter.
The Opener: Diaz, Injuries, Rule 5
With the World Series in the rear-view and the offseason officially underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Edwin Diaz Sets Records With New Mets Pact
The first major signing of the offseason occurred yesterday evening, with the Mets re-signing star closer Edwin Diaz to a massive five-year, $102MM contract. Diaz now becomes the first relief pitcher to ever secure a nine-figure deal, and the first with a deal of an average annual value north of $20MM. Diaz secured that contract by having a platform season for the ages, throwing 62 innings to a 1.31 ERA and a mind-boggling 0.90 FIP. While the Mets have plenty more to do in rebuilding the bullpen as Trevor May, Seth Lugo, and Mychal Givens depart for free agency, the Diaz re-signing serves as an important first step in that process. The record-setting contract also serves as a reminder of owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to flex financial muscle, which will be important as the Mets look to re-sign or replace players such as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Brandon Nimmo this offseason.
2. World Series Teams Examine Injuries
Though the 2022 World Series is now a thing of the past, the participants must now turn their focus to the injuries they suffered throughout the season that had been ignored in favor of playing through the postseason run. Most notable among these, of course, is Bryce Harper, who suffered UCL damage in May, with surgery this offseason a possibility. For the World Series champion Astros, three players have injuries to worry about entering the offseason: Alex Bregman suffered a broken finger late in Game 6 on Saturday, Yuli Gurriel missed Game 6 after a sprain to his MCL, and Martin Maldonado played through both a broken hand and a sports hernia this postseason, the latter of which will require surgery according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Bregman’s injury has the least question marks surrounding it, as he will reportedly be ready for Spring Training in 2023. More details could be announced regarding the rest of these injuries in the coming days.
3. Rule 5 Draft Protection Deadline Looms
As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview, the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft is November 15th this year. Seeing as there was no R5 draft last offseason, teams will likely have more players to protect than usual, which could lead to roster crunches across baseball. This could also lead to some players getting cut from 40-man rosters a few days ahead of November 18th’s non-tender deadline, and some minor trades such as yesterday’s Sam Hilliard deal between the Rockies and Braves. Overall, with these dates being earlier on the offseason calendar, fans should expect a larger quantity of winter moves to happen in this first week of the offseason than in recent years, though said moves won’t necessarily be at the top of the free agent market.
Nationals To Decline Mutual Option With Nelson Cruz
Nov 6: As expected, the Nationals have officially declined their 2023 Mutual Option on Nelson Cruz.
Oct 15: Talk Nats reports that the Nationals are expected to decline their half of a $16MM mutual option with righty slugger Nelson Cruz for the 2023 season, instead opting to pay him a $3MM buyout on the option. Additionally, Cruz, who had been previously reported to be undergoing eye surgery sometime this month, has undergone the procedure this past week.
Washington’s decision is no surprise after a difficult season for Cruz, who slashed just .234/.313/.337 in 507 PA in 2022, posting his first below average offensive season by measure of wRC+ since his age 26 season back in 2007. Given his age (he turned 42 this past July) and down year in 2022, it’s a fair question to wonder what sort of market he might find for his services this offseason, particularly given his inability to play the field at this stage in his career. Cruz hasn’t regularly taken the field since 2015, and hasn’t played anything other than DH since 2018, barring seven innings spent at first base in a single game for the Rays last year. It’s difficult to imagine any clear contenders wanting to lock up their DH slot with an aging bat who performed at a below-average offensive level in 2022, particularly given the number of teams who prefer to cycle their every day players through the DH slot as an opportunity to provide them extra rest.
Cruz may be able to find a market nonetheless, however. His aforementioned eye surgery provides a possible explanation for his struggles this season, and hope it can be corrected headed into 2023. Combined with his lengthy track record as an all star caliber bat and his reputation as a leader in the clubhouse, the procedure on his eye could give some teams enough confidence to offer Cruz a major league deal this offseason, though salary offers surely won’t come close to the $18MM guarantee he received with the Nationals in 2022.
Speculatively speaking, a reunion with the Brewers or the Rangers this offseason could make some sense. Both teams are in dire need of added offensive firepower this season, but with the Brewers facing a massive arbitration class in 2022, and the Rangers also in dire need of rotation reinforcements, a low-cost flier on Cruz could make more sense than a splashier, more surefire addition. Another potential fit could be found with the Guardians, who have shocked most of the baseball world by beating out the White Sox and Twins for the AL Central title and have since knocked the Rays out of the postseason and stand tied with the Yankees 2 games into the ALDS. Despite the impressive season, the Guardians have struggled offensively this year, especially when compared to other postseason clubs. Having moved on from another DH-only righty slugger in Franmil Reyes earlier this season, and sporting an extremely youthful roster, Cruz’s veteran presence and potential with the bat could make sense. Given the Guardians are a franchise that rarely has the budget space available to make impact additions, the low price tag that will likely be attached to Cruz is another reason for Cleveland to be interested in the slugger.
The Opener: Astros, Options, Diamondbacks
Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.
With the final game of the 2022 MLB season coming as soon as tomorrow night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:
1. Astros Facing Decisions On Baker, Click
After a hard-fought Game 5 that afforded Justin Verlander his first pitcher win in the World Series, the Astros will look to clinch back home in Houston tomorrow night. As soon as they do, however, they’ll have to face the personnel decisions that their postseason run has put on hold to this point. Both manager Dusty Baker and GM James Click are on expiring contracts, and Astros owner Jim Crane will have to decide their futures with the franchise. The Astros are expected to ask Baker to return in 2023, and Baker has indicated that he would like to continue managing regardless of the outcome of this postseason run. The future is murkier for Click, however, as speculation has run rampant throughout the postseason that he may not be asked to return to Houston in 2023, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Click’s future as recently as last night. While it’s surprising to see so much uncertainty around a GM who has captured back-to-back AL pennants and might add a World Series championship to his resume as soon as tomorrow night, reports of a personality clash between Crane and Click abound. Heyman suggests that the Astros may be interested in David Stearns, who served as their assistant GM prior to running Milwaukee’s front office. While Stearns has stepped down as president of baseball operations for the Brewers, he’s not likely to run the Astros or any other team during the 2023 season, for which he is still under contract in Milwaukee. Even if the Astros are indeed interested in Stearns as their long-term head of baseball operations, the question of who will be at the helm in Houston next season remains unanswered.
2. Option Decisions Loom
A number of players and teams are facing option decisions, and with the World Series set to end this weekend, those decisions will have to be made sometime next week. While some decisions, such as that of Nolan Arenado, have already been made, most are still up in the air. Anthony Rizzo, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Odorizzi are among the players with tougher decisions facing them on whether or not to test free agency. As for club options, the Dodgers have one of the tougher calls on Justin Turner‘s $16MM option, as do the Brewers on Kolten Wong‘s $10MM option. Additionally, many of the biggest names on the free agent market this season, such as Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, are technically not set to be free agents until they opt-out of their current contracts, though for decisions as clear as these this is little more than a formality.
3. Arizona Faces Outfield Logjam
Despite finishing the regular season with an unimpressive 74-88 record, the Diamondbacks are by no means a team without talent. Unfortunately for Arizona, however, a great deal of that talent overlaps heavily, as the team is flush with young, controllable, lefty-hitting outfielders. Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas highlight the bunch in terms of prospect pedigree, but Jake McCarthy had a breakout season in 2022, Daulton Varsho turned in a quality season as an everyday player spending most of his time in the outfield, Pavin Smith won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next season, and Dominic Fletcher is knocking on the door in Triple-A. Between the DH and some positional versatility — Varsho caught 175 innings in 2022, while Smith played a bit of first base — Arizona could find at-bats for most, or perhaps even all, of these players. A better solution for the Diamondbacks, though, would be to explore trades for one or two of these young players in order to shore up their pitching staff or address other holes in the lineup. Carroll and Varsho would likely be off-limits, but perhaps a team looking to get more left-handed bats into the lineup, such as either Chicago team or the Marlins, could be interested in acquiring McCarthy, Smith, or Fletcher. While it’s not inconceivable Thomas could be moved, after a rough start to his major league career in 2022, Arizona would likely be selling low on him in any deal.