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Kirby Yates Nearing Deal With Blue Jays

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8:36am: The Jays are a finalist for Yates but don’t have a deal in place just yet, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Heyman further tweets that Yates is “leaning” toward the Blue Jays but has yet to formally agree to anything.

8:28am: Free-agent reliever Kirby Yates has been said to be nearing a decision since earlier this week, and TSN’s Scott Mitchell reports this morning that Yates is “firmly” on the Blue Jays’ radar. Yates is expected to meet with team officials at the organization’s Spring Training complex in Dunedin, Fla., per Mitchell, who adds that he’s told Yates is not “just visiting.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Yates and the Jays are close to a deal.

Yates pitched in just six games this past season before undergoing surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow — a procedure that put an end to the already truncated 2020 season for the former All-Star. The 33-year-old Yates (34 in March) went from waiver claim to dominant reliever in similarly meteoric fashion to former Padres teammate Brad Hand and new White Sox closer Liam Hendriks.

Following a strong first season in San Diego in 2017, Yates added a splitter to his arsenal and saw his career take off; in 2018-19, Yates led all qualified relievers with a 1.67 ERA and ranked third with a 2.14 SIERA over the life of 123 2/3 innings. Along the way, he struck out a whopping 38.7 percent of the hitters he faced, while walking just 6.1 percent of opponents. Among qualified MLB relievers, only Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz topped him in terms of K-BB% during that time.

The Blue Jays received middle-of-the-pack results from their bullpen in 2020 but quietly enjoyed some strong performances from unheralded members of the relief corps. Rookie Jordan Romano, returned after failing to stick with the Rangers after the Rule 5 Draft, allowed just two runs in 14 2/3 innings while striking out 21 of the 57 batters he faced. Former Cubs righty Rafael Dolis, meanwhile, joined the Jays after an impressive run in Japan and yielded just four earned runs in 24 innings while punching out 31 of the 100 hitters he faced. Tom Hatch and Julian Merryweather, acquired in respective trades of David Phelps and Josh Donaldson, both gave the Jays reason for optimism as in their MLB debuts as well.

Encouraging as some of those showings may have been, the Jays lack experienced arms at the back of their bullpen. Ken Giles, who entered the 2020 season as Toronto’s closer, missed nearly the entire year due to Tommy John surgery and is now a free agent. Veteran righty Anthony Bass, one of the team’s most reliable options in 2020, is also a free agent at the moment.

Toronto reportedly agreed to terms with right-hander Tyler Chatwood, another bullpen candidate, just last night. It still seems likely that the Jays, who have been connected to countless free agents this winter as one of the few clubs actually willing to spend significant money, will make further additions in the bullpen even if a deal with Yates ultimately does come together. Notably, starters-turned-relievers Anthony Kay and Ryan Borucki are the only lefties in the Toronto bullpen. While Borucki is likely to make the club due to a lack of minor league options, Kay struggled to an ERA north of 5.00 thanks to a bloated 14 percent walk rate in 2020 and does have minor league options remaining.

Dodgers Have Considered Marcus Semien At Third Base

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The Dodgers were in the mix for DJ LeMahieu prior to his agreement to return to the Yankees, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic cautions that L.A.’s miss on LeMahieu doesn’t guarantee a reunion with Justin Turner at third base. The Dodgers are mulling potential alternatives at the hot corner, per Rosenthal, including longtime A’s shortstop Marcus Semien.

There’s surely an aspect of due diligence at play here. President of baseball ops Andrew Friedman and his crew wouldn’t be doing their jobs if they didn’t consider all avenues, but Semien nevertheless creates an interesting option for the Dodgers — particularly if he’s signed to a multi-year deal. Corey Seager wouldn’t be displaced for Semien in 2021, Rosenthal notes, but Seager is a free agent next winter. Semien would give the Dodgers a fallback in the event that Seager signs elsewhere upon reaching the open market. As a Scott Boras client, he seems unlikely to sign an extension this spring.

The market for Semien has yet to fully take shape, as is the case with most position players in this glacial free agency period. The Reds and Phillies are among the teams known to be looking for a shortstop, and the Twins have increasingly been reported to be considering shortstop additions as well. Fansided’s Robert Murray reported awhile back that Semien had garnered interest at other positions; his ability to play an above-average shortstop should carry over and allow him to play quality defense at a less-demanding position like second or third.

The question regarding Semien, of course, is what to expect from him at the plate. His 2020 season didn’t come close to his MVP-caliber 2019 campaign, although it’s also at least anecdotally worth pointing out that Semien improved after a slow start to the year and raked through Oakland’s eight-game playoff run. That’s a small sample, of course, but that’s true of the entire 2020 season.

In many ways, Semien exemplifies the difficulty in evaluating a player during this year’s two-month slate of games. His agents at Wasserman surely will argue that 2019 was the beginning of a breakout and that his torrid finish to the year shows he was on his way to replicating that production over a larger sample. More skeptical teams might point to the fact that Semien was more of a league-average bat prior to 2019. An average hitter capable of providing above-average defense at shortstop is still a very good player, but there’d be a major gap between how that player and the 2019 Semien are compensated.

There’s no evidence that Semien is any sort of priority for the Dodgers at the moment, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to hear that they’ve also considered a handful of other options. Turner, after all, is reported to be seeking a four-year contract that’d run through his age-39 season, so it’s more than understandable if the Dodgers and other clubs are mulling alternatives.

It’s also worth noting, too, that the Dodgers appear willing to spend at the position. Pat Ragazzo, who first reported the terms of LeMahieu’s agreement to return to the Bronx, also reported that the Dodgers offered LeMahieu a four-year deal worth a total of $60MM. That’s two years and $30MM shy of where he landed, of course, but we don’t know when that offer came in, either. A reunion with Turner seems likelier than a deal with Semien, but it’s still of some note that Los Angeles was seemingly willing to go multiple years at a significant rate for an infielder other than Turner.

Phillies Looking At Further Bullpen Additions

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Since Dave Dombrowski was named the Phillies’ president of baseball operations, the club has acquired Jose Alvarado from the Rays and signed former D-backs closer Archie Bradley. (Philadelphia also picked up lefty Sam Coonrod in a deal with the Giants.) At today’s press conference to introduce Bradley, Dombrowski made clear that his club is still open to further augmenting the bullpen (YouTube link).

“I think we’ve improved ourselves, but we can continue to work on improving ourselves, too,” said Dombrowski. “I think we’re open-minded to future additions as we continue to talk in this free-agent market. We’ll continue to work on it, but I do think we have significantly improved ourselves.” Neither Dombrowski nor manager Joe Girardi dubbed Bradley the team’s closer just yet, and Bradley himself enthusiastically said he’s open to pitching in any role.

Dombrowski wouldn’t delve into specifics regarding the team’s budget, but acknowledged that he has a “pulse” of where owner John Middleton is comfortable drawing the payroll line. The Phils still have room to make a few moves, per Dombrowski, who also suggested that further rotation depth would be “ideal.” Some of that depth could come in the form of non-roster invitees to Spring Training, he added.

Of course, the key factor in determining the Phillies’ budget for the upcoming season is whether the club is able to reel J.T. Realmuto back into the fold. The Phillies reportedly put forth a new five-year offer worth more than $100MM total in the past few days, and while Dombrowski unsurprisingly declined to comment on negotiations, he confirmed that the team is still hoping to keep the two-time All-Star behind the plate.

At the moment, the Phillies’ projected payroll clocks in at roughly $152MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, with their luxury-tax obligations at a slightly heftier $157MM. That’s a ways shy of last year, when the Phils were in line to carry about a $187MM payroll prior to the prorated season — a mark that would’ve been a franchise record. That said, after a season without any gate revenue, it’s not clear how aggressively Middleton and the rest of the club’s ownership group are willing to spend.

Were the Phillies to head into the 2021 season with the current group of relievers, the newly acquired trio of Bradley, Alvarado and Coonrod would be complemented by holdover Hector Neris, swingman David Hale and likely some youngsters from the group of Connor Brogdon, Ranger Suarez, Cole Irvin and Ian Hamilton. (Brogdon, specifically, was mentioned during today’s press conference.) Certainly, there’s room for more veteran help to be brought in — be it on a guaranteed deal or, as Dombrowski alluded to when discussing the rotation, on a non-roster pact.

More broadly, Dombrowski rejected the manner in which some have characterized the 2021 season as a transitional year for his club. The Phillies simply have “too many good players … to be thinking about transitioning,” said Dombrowski, adding that the team’s focus is solely on competing for a playoff berth. The veteran front office exec acknowledged that the Phils won’t be perceived as the favorites but mentioned on multiple occasions that there are still about four weeks until camp opens, while also pointing to the increased frequency of free agents signing after Spring Training begins.

Red Sox Trade C.J. Chatham To Phillies

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The Phillies have acquired minor league infielder C.J. Chatham from the Red Sox in exchange for a player to be named later, per announcements from both teams. Right-hander Victor Arano has been designated for assignment in order to clear a roster spot, the Phillies added. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo reported (via Twitter) that Chatham was likely headed to Philadelphia just prior to the announcement.

Chatham, 26, was the Red Sox’ second-round pick back in 2016, during Dave Dombrowski’s time as the team’s president of baseball operations. It seems as though Dombrowski, now heading up the Phillies’ baseball ops department, is still a firm believer in Chatham’s skill set. Chatham has yet to make his big league debut but spent the 2020 season at Boston’s alternate training site, where he continued to build on a solid 2019 showing in the upper minors. In 467 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A that year, Chatham hit .298/.333/.408 while logging time at both middle infield positions.

Both Baseball America and MLB.com ranked Chatham 14th among Boston farmhands this past summer. BA tabs him as at least a bench piece in the Majors and perhaps even a passable regular option at second base. Chatham has fanned in just 18.2 percent of his minor league plate appearances and has an all-fields, contact-oriented approach at the plate due to a lack of power, per those scouting reports. He’s a versatile defender who could handle any infield spot, and Chatham still has a pair of minor league options remaining, which gives the Phils some flexible depth for the next couple of seasons.

From Boston’s vantage point, a roster spot was needed to make Martin Perez’s new one-year deal with the team official. The Sox have yet to announce the Perez signing, but that’ll happen once he passes a physical.

As for the 25-year-old Arano (26 next month), he spent the 2020 season in the Phillies’ 60-man player pool but didn’t make it to the Majors. Arano was limited to just three appearances in 2019 due to elbow surgery, and he missed a chunk of the 2018 campaign due to shoulder issues — rotator cuff inflammation, more specifically. He made his big league debut back in 2017 but has still managed to tally just 74 1/3 frames, in large part because of injury.

Of course, Arano has also been impressive when he’s been healthy enough to take the hill. In those 74 2/3 innings, he boasts a 2.65 ERA and 3.38 SIERA. He’s also punched out 26.3 percent of the hitters he’s faced and walked a very manageable 7.6 percent of opponents. Arano is a fly-ball pitcher with average fastball velocity (93.6 mph) who leans heavily on his slider that has helped him to post an impressive 16.6 percent swinging-strike rate in his young career. The Phils have a week to trade Arano, release him or place him on outright waivers.

Latest On Masahiro Tanaka

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As rotation options continue to come off the board in free agency — albeit at a slow pace — Masahiro Tanaka remains one of the market’s top unsigned options. With Corey Kluber set to join the Yankees’ rotation, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that although Tanaka and the Yanks are still in touch, there’s a “good chance” he’ll be pitching elsewhere in 2021. Recently, according to SNY’s Andy Martino, Tanaka has been seeking a one-year deal worth $15MM or more.

Heyman said on MLB Network today (video link) that Tanaka and the Yankees had discussed a two-year deal, although at this point that wouldn’t be possible without exceeding the luxury tax limit. Kluber’s $11MM deal and the $15MM annual value on DJ LeMahieu’s six-year deal bring the Yankees within just a few million dollars of the $210MM luxury barrier, which the Yankees reportedly hope to avoid. The moment Kluber agreed to terms, a new landing spot for Tanaka appeared to be in the cards (barring a change of heart from the Yankees on the tax line).

Tanaka himself recently indicated that a return to his native Japan wasn’t out of the question, and Heyman suggests that there’s “strong interest” from teams in Nippon Professional Baseball, where he may find a larger deal than in North America. Martino tweeted late last week that several around the industry view a return to Japan to be increasingly likely for Tanaka.

At the outset of free agency, a two- or even three-year deal for Tanaka, a steady workhorse in the Yankees’ rotation, appeared to be within reach. Multi-year deals for starting pitchers have been virtually nonexistent to this point, however. Mike Minor’s two-year, $18MM contract with the Royals is the lone multi-year deal that has been signed by an established starting pitcher so far this offseason. Japanese righty Kohei Arihara (Rangers) and former Mets righty Chris Flexen (Mariners) both signed small two-year arrangements, but those were speculative low-cost fliers based on their work overseas — not the type a known commodity with Tanaka’s track record would seek.

If Tanaka is indeed seeking a one-year pact at the aforementioned annual rate, it’s hard to blame him. After all, Kluber secured $11MM despite pitching just 36 1/3 innings in 2019-20 combined. Drew Smyly turned five starts with the Giants last year into his own $11MM guarantee. Charlie Morton, five years older than Tanaka, commanded a $15MM sum on a one-year deal even though he spent nearly a month of last year’s shortened schedule on the injured list due to shoulder troubles.

The 32-year-old Tanaka missed his first two starts of the 2020 season due to a concussion sustained when he was hit by a comebacker during Summer Camp, but he went on to make 10 starts for the Yankees with a 3.56 ERA and 4.07 SIERA. The UCL tear that Tanaka sustained early in his MLB career but rehabbed without Tommy John surgery continues to loom over him, but at this point it’s hard to question his durability. From 2016-19, the righty averaged 30 starts per season and six innings per start.

Outside the Yankees, interest in Tanaka hasn’t been widely reported on, though he’s surely fielded interest. The Padres were said last week to have considered Tanaka, and any team that missed on Kluber could certainly look to Tanaka as an alternative. A one-year deal would be nice way to keep his options open, but it doesn’t appear out of the question that Tanaka could command a more lucrative contract in NPB — not after Tomoyuki Sugano agreed to a four-year, $40MM deal with opt-outs after each season.

Phillies Designate Kyle Garlick For Assignment

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The Phillies announced Monday morning that they’ve designated outfielder Kyle Garlick for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to right-hander Archie Bradley, whose previously reported signing to a one-year deal has now been confirmed by the club.

Garlick, 29 next week, was acquired from the Dodgers last February in exchange for minor league left-hander Tyler Gilbert (whom the Dodgers lost to the D-backs in the minor league phase of this year’s Rule 5 Draft). Garlick spent most of the 2020 season at the Phillies’ alternate site in Lehigh Valley, though he did appear in a dozen games. He went just 3-for-22 with a double and seven strikeouts in that time, however.

Garlick showed a bit of promise with the Dodgers in 2019 when he made his big league debut and hit .250/.321/.521 with three long balls and four doubles in a small sample of 53 plate appearances. He’s a career .281/.332/.568 hitter in 645 Triple-A plate appearances and does have a minor league option remaining, so it’s not out of the question that a team that is particularly thin on upper-level outfield depth could place a claim on the right-handed hitter.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Deadline To Exchange Arbitration Figures Is Today

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There’s a 1:00 ET deadline today for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arb hearing. Mookie Betts’ $27MM agreement from last winter is the highest arb salary ever, and no one in this year’s class figures to topple that record. Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor are this year’s two highest-profile cases. A few reminders:

  • Players are typically arbitration-eligible three times. Three years of Major League service time is the standard entry point for the arbitration process; a player remains arbitration-eligible until he either signs a multi-year deal buying out his arbitration seasons or until he accrues six years of MLB service time, thus qualifying him for free agency. Typically, players are given raises based on their prior year’s work. The arbitration process tends to focus on fairly basic stats: e.g. plate appearances, batting average, home runs and RBIs for hitters, as well as innings pitched, wins, ERA, saves, holds and strikeouts for pitchers.
    • In this year’s shortened schedule, service time was prorated in the same manner as salary. A full year is typically considered to be 172 days of a season’s 186 days on the Major League roster. Essentially, every day of service time in 2020 was equivalent to 2.77 days of actual Major League service.
  • The top 22 percent of players (in terms of total service time) with between two and three years of service are also eligible as “Super Two” players. These players are eligible for arbitration four times. Brewers reliever Josh Hader, for instance, became arbitration-eligible in this manner last winter.
  • Players who are non-tendered before reaching six years of service time can reenter the arbitration system. Last year, for example, the Dodgers non-tendered right-hander Yimi Garcia when he had four-plus years of service. He signed a one-year free-agent deal with the Marlins, accrued a full year of service in 2020, and is currently arb-eligible as a player with between five and six years of service.
  • It’s become fairly standard for teams throughout the league to adopt a “file and trial” approach, meaning they’ll cease negotiating on one-year deals once salary figures are exchanged. Clubs that exchange figures with a player will sometimes continue working toward a multi-year deal, but it’s become increasingly rare for teams and players to negotiate one-year deals following the exchange deadline. Arbitration hearings typically begin in early February, although with so many hearings expected this year, the precise timeline could be subject to change. Negotiations can continue right up until the point of a hearing. It’s also unclear if some clubs will relax their file-and-trial approach in 2021 due to the expected deluge of hearings.
  • Arbitration contracts, unless specifically negotiated otherwise, are non-guaranteed. Teams can cut any player who agrees to a standard arb deal and owe him only 30 days’ termination pay (roughly one-sixth the salary) up until halfway through Spring Training. Cutting him in the second half of Spring Training but before Opening Day entitles the player to 45 days of termination pay. Arbitration contracts are guaranteed come Opening Day. There are a few fully guaranteed arb deals every year, and because of the uncertainty associated with this offseason, we saw more of those than usual in the run-up to the non-tender deadline back in early December.

As is the case every offseason, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected arbitration salaries for all of the eligible players, but the unprecedented nature of the pandemic-shortened platform season for this year’s arbitration class has complicated the projection process even more so than usual. (Matt discussed that fact this week in an interview with The Athletic’s Chad Jennings.) As such, Matt provided three projection numbers based on various manners in which teams and agencies could argue based on the shortened season.

Broadly speaking, Matt’s projections are the result of a blanket, algorithm-based approach that doesn’t factor in context of unique or atypical cases. On the whole, the model has generally been an accurate barometer. For some higher-profile and/or atypical cases, Matt has gone into detail on why the model may or may not be at risk of missing; you can read these in his Arbitration Breakdown series.

Also, as we do every year, we’re providing an Arbitration Tracker to follow along with settlements and, for those that reach the point of exchange, proposed salary figures. You can bookmark MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker as a means of keeping up, and we’ll also be tracking today’s arb agreements and filing figures in separate posts later today.

White Sox, Nick Williams Agree To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with outfielder Nick Williams, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Williams, a client of the Boras Corporation, would be paid $900K if he cracks the big league roster.

Now 27 years of age, Williams is a former second-round pick (Rangers, 2012) and highly touted prospect. Ranked as the game’s No. 27 overall farmhand back in 2016, Williams was one of the centerpieces of the trade sending Cole Hamels from Philadelphia to Texas, but he’s yet to replicate his impressive rookie showing from the 2017 season. A 23-year-old Williams debuted for the Phils that year and went on to hit .288/.338/.473 with a dozen homers, 14 doubles and two triples in 343 trips to the plate.

Since that time, however, Williams has struggled both in the big leagues. He batted .234/.298/.388 in 560 MLB plate appearances from 2018-19, though he still posted very strong Triple-A numbers during that ’19 campaign. Williams opened the 2020 season in the Phillies organization but eventually went to the Reds via waiver claim. He never appeared in a Major League game with Cincinnati, though, spending a month at their alternate training site before being designated for assignment and going unclaimed on waivers the second time around.

The White Sox have a full outfield with Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Adam Eaton and Adam Engel, so there’s no immediate path to playing time for Williams. He’ll look to make the club as a bench bat and DH option, though he could also head to Triple-A Charlotte as a depth piece. In some ways, this is a smaller-scale version of last year’s addition of Nomar Mazara, another still-in-his-prime former top corner outfield prospect. Williams, of course, won’t go on the 40-man roster as Mazara did, but if he surprises and finds himself with the ChiSox, he’d be controllable all the way through the 2024 season via arbitation.

Mets Sign Jose Martinez

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2:40pm: The Mets have announced the signing. A corresponding 40-man roster move wasn’t necessary, as the Mets already had multiple open spaces.

1:46pm: The Mets have agreed to a one-year, split contract with free agent outfielder/first baseman Jose Martinez, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). If he makes the Major League roster, he’ll receive a $1MM salary with up to $500K available in additional incentives. In the minors, he’ll earn at a $225K clip, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Martinez is represented by Octagon.

The 2020 season was a forgettable one for Martinez, who posted an awful .182/.265/.295 slash in 98 plate appearances between the Rays and the Cubs. That line included a particularly woeful stretch following a trade from Tampa to Chicago that saw him go hitless in 22 plate appearances as a Cub.

Prior to the 2020 season, however, Martinez was a highly productive part-time player with the Cardinals. From 2017-19, Martinez batted a combined .296/.361/.458 with 41 homers, 56 doubles and three triples in 1270 trips to the plate. His right-handed bat was a menace to left-handed pitching, in particular; Martinez owned southpaws with a .323/.401/.570 slash in that time.

Martinez still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so he doesn’t necessarily need to make the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training. He finished up the 2020 season with just over four years of service time, so he’s controllable through the 2022 season at present, although if he spends even three or four weeks in the minors, his path to free agency would be pushed back a year.

Of course, Martinez first needs to make the big league roster and reestablish himself as a credible big league hitter before that’s even a consideration. A rebound with the bat is of particular importance for the 28-year-old, as he doesn’t bring any real defensive value to the table. Martinez has ample experience in both outfield corners and at first base, but he rates as a well below-average defender at all three positions.

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