Pitching Rumors: BoSox, Ottavino, Giants, Kikuchi, Rangers
It’s “believed” that free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino is near the top of Boston’s bullpen wish list, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The same is true of the previously reported David Robertson, per Heyman. With closer Craig Kimbrel and setup man Joe Kelly as their best remaining free agents, it’s no surprise that the world champion Red Sox are exploring the top of the market for bullpen help. Those two led full-time Red Sox relievers in innings pitched last season, and Kimbrel was particularly effective. The 33-year-old Ottavino may have been even better, though, as the former Rockie was among the game’s elite relievers in 2018 despite having to pitch his home games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Ottavino placed fourth among relievers in average exit velocity against (84.9 mph), sixth in fWAR (2.0), 11th in K/9 (12.98, against 4.17 BB/9), 13th in innings (77 2/3) and 17th in ERA (2.43), putting himself in position to score a lucrative contract in free agency.
More on the pitching market…
- Free-agent left-hander Yusei Kikuchi “really likes” San Francisco and “might” have the Giants atop his list of preferred teams, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle hears. The Giants, for their part, seem interested in landing the 27-year-old Kikuchi, who’s poised to immigrate to the majors after starring in his native Japan. Kikuchi’s soon-to-be former employer, the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball, posted him for MLB clubs Dec. 2, giving him until Jan. 2 to sign. The Giants look like as logical a fit for Kikuchi as any team, given the short- and long-term uncertainty throughout their rotation.
- As the Giants wait to see what happens with Kikuchi, they’ve “checked in on” free-agent righty Tyson Ross, Schulman tweets, though he suggests a signing is hardly imminent. The Bay Area is familiar to Ross, a Berkeley, Calif., native who pitched for the Athletics earlier in his career. The 31-year-old divided last season between San Diego and St. Louis and posted a 4.15 ERA/4.39 FIP with 7.34 K/9, 3.73 BB/9 and a 45.9 percent groundball rate in 149 2/3 innings (31 appearances, 23 starts). It was Ross’ first fairly healthy season since he underwent the dreaded thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2016.
- The pitching-needy Rangers have interest in re-signing lefty Martin Perez and righty Adrian Sampson, according to TR Sullivan of MLB.com. Texas moved on from both hurlers last month, at least temporarily, as it declined Perez’s $7.5MM option in favor of a $1MM buyout and non-tendered Sampson. Perez, 27, has been a passable back-end starter at times, but he endured a horrid 2018. Sampson, also 27, hasn’t experienced much big league success over a limited sample of work (27 2/3 innings). He spent most of last season at the Triple-A level.
Red Sox Re-Sign Nathan Eovaldi
4:22pm: The deal has been formally announced. Per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter), Eovaldi’s guarantee will actually be an even $68MM over the four-year term.
“We’re very happy to have Nathan back with us,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in a press release. “He did a tremendous job for us last season, playing a significant role in helping us win the division and the World Series. His performance in the Postseason was outstanding, both as a starting pitcher and as a reliever.”
8:53am: The Red Sox have struck a deal to bring back righty Nathan Eovaldi, pending a physical, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The ACES client has secured a four-year, $67.5MM contract, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
This was a match that MLBTR predicted in its listing of the top fifty MLB free agents. Frankly, that was one of the easier situations to predict, given Eovaldi’s stirring run for the World Series champs. MLBTR guessed Eovaldi would secure a $60MM guarantee over four years, a contract level that seemed quite ambitious at the time but has grown more and more plausible over the course of the winter.
Both the upside and the uncertainty that come with Eovaldi’s flamethrowing right arm are well-known. Having witnessed him up close for several months, concluding with a trial by fire on the game’s biggest stage, the Boston organization was well-placed to decide whether Eovaldi is worth the risk.
That’s not to say there weren’t other pursuers. Ultimately, the Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and Padres all reportedly had some level of involvement. That wide variety of suitors no doubt drove the bidding to heights that would have been all but unimaginable at the start of the 2018 season.
Once Patrick Corbin went off the board, the sprint for Eovaldi was on. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, however, clearly had decided that Eovaldi was a top priority. With deep pockets and the allure of a repeat title run aiding his cause, Dombrowski was able to get his target after a final push last night.
If any team is situated to take another shot on Eovaldi, it’s certainly the Sox. He has twice undergone Tommy John surgery, needed another elbow procedure at the outset of the 2018 season, and only once has made over thirty starts in a MLB campaign. Eovaldi’s career ERA of 4.16, compiled over 850 total frames, speaks to his years of generally unfulfilled promise with the Dodgers, Marlins, and Yankees. Noted surgeon Dr. Christopher Ahmad provided an optimistic viewpoint on Eovaldi’s outlook, and fielding-independent pitching measures generally valued the righty above his results, but there’s no denying the risk that comes with this kind of background.
That said, the ceiling here is quite compelling. Eovaldi hasn’t even yet turned 29 and sustained an average heater of over 97 mph last year. While he was a bit homer-prone during his time to open the season with the Rays, which hurt his outcomes even as he otherwise showed compelling stuff, the seven-year MLB vet was excellent down the stretch in 2018. He ultimately tossed 54 regular season frames of 3.33 ERA ball with 8.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 for the Sox. Over the course of the full campaign, Eovaldi’s swinging-strike rate surged to a career-high 10.7% while he turned in a sturdy 45.6% groundball rate that sat just under his personal mean.
No doubt that late run boosted Eovaldi’s stock, but it was his postseason showing that cemented his status as a top free agent arm. Eovaldi ended up turning in 22 1/3 frames over the team’s three series. He was excellent every time he took the ball, whether as a starter, late-inning reliever, or long man. Eovaldi ended up permitting just four earned runs on 15 hits and three walks while racking up 16 strikeouts.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Negotiations Between Red Sox, Nathan Eovaldi Reportedly “Intensifying”
10:15pm: While there’s no deal between the two sides just yet, a reunion is indeed becoming “increasingly likely,” per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).
5:41pm: Talks between the Red Sox and free-agent righty Nathan Eovaldi are “intensifying,” Robert Murray of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Fancred’s Jon Heyman suggests that talks could reach as high as four years and an annual value close to $17MM (Twitter link). The Red Sox are one of many teams who’ve been prominently linked to the right-hander, who starred for them following a midseason trade from the Rays.
Eovaldi, 29 in February, has also been tied to the Astros and Yankees in recent days, returned from Tommy John surgery in 2018 and delivered 111 regular-season innings of 3.81 ERA ball with 8.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. The flamethrowing righty was particularly impressive with the Red Sox, for whom he pitched to a 3.33 ERA in 54 innings to close out the season before dazzling with a 1.61 ERA in 22 1/3 postseason frames. Eovaldi worked both as a starter and a high-leverage, multi-inning reliever in October, regularly pumping triple-digit fastballs as he became one of manager Alex Cora‘s most trusted playoff weapons.
For the Red Sox, he’d presumably slot into the rotation behind Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello, though some clubs have reportedly showed interest in utilizing Eovaldi in a high-leverage relief role. Given Boston’s uncertainty beyond the top three in the rotation — Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright and Brian Johnson are among the options for the final two spots — it seems logical to expect that Eovaldi’s high-octane arm would serve to deepen the starting staff.
Beyond the three aforementioned clubs, Eovaldi has also reportedly drawn interest from the likes of the Padres, Brewers, Braves, Angels, Phillies, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants.
Pitching Notes: Eovaldi, Corbin, Kluber/Bauer, Soria, Holland
If there was any doubt as to the Red Sox‘ desire to bring back Nathan Eovaldi after his strong run with the club late in 2018, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski put it to rest in comments today. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to report, Dombrowski confirmed that the organization has been engaged with Eovaldi’s camp this winter — though he also cautioned that “there’s a lot of interest” in the righty leaguewide. How far the Sox will go in the bidding remains to be seen, but Dombrowski said that Eovaldi is “a guy that we love.” With only a few major needs to be accounted for, the defending World Series champs seem a prime potential landing spot — as we predicted at the outset of the offseason.
- The Padres also have interest in Eovaldi, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). It has long been rumored that the San Diego club would hunt for starting pitching this winter, but the injury-prone, high-octane 28-year-old would make for a particularly interesting target. After all, numerous big spenders (see above) are in the fray. For the budget-conscious Friars, beating the market for Eovaldi would surely mean taking on a rather significant risk. Perhaps that’s part of a more general strategy for a team that has plenty of interesting arms filtering through the system and is looking to move toward contention now while adding players who’ll contribute for some time to come. The San Diego franchise has also kicked around trade concepts with the Mets on Noah Syndergaard and, as Lin notes, already agreed to a hefty two-year pact with Garrett Richards in hopes he’ll recover and turn in a strong 2020 campaign.
- Even as Eovaldi draws plenty of interest it seems the early market will be driven by Patrick Corbin, the excellent lefty who just completed a tour of several big-spending east-coast clubs. The Nationals, Yankees, and Phillies still profile as the likeliest landing spots, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though he notes that other teams are still in the mix. A decision, in any event, still seems to come sooner than later. Yankees GM Brian Cashman made clear that his organization is a serious pursuer of a hurler with deep ties to the region in an interview this evening with Jack Curry of the YES Network (write-up via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). “We’re doing everything in our power to put ourselves in position to be a legitimate consideration,” says Cashman, who calls Corbin “a special talent.” This sort of public endorsement obviously won’t decide the matter, but it surely indicates that the Yankees are engaged in a full press.
- The trade side of the starting pitching market remains somewhat more difficult to assess at this stage, but the Indians still seem to be driving the bus (at least unless and until we learn more about the seriousness of the Mets’ intentions regarding Syndergaard). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests on Twitter that the Cleveland org will likely wait until there has been some movement at the upper levels of free agency before moving Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, though it’s not entirely clear why that’d necessarily be the case. At the moment, Morosi adds in a subsequent tweet, the Braves are not actively engaged on either hurler. Of course, it’d likely be unwise to rule out the Atlanta club at this stage, given its assortment of intriguing young talent and desire to add a frontline rotation piece.
- Veteran reliever Joakim Soria is drawing interest from at least a handful of clubs at this early stage of the free agent market, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. The Diamondbacks, Angels, Yankees, Braves, and Reds are all involved to some extent, per the report, representing an interesting slate of organizations. While the New York and Atlanta clubs are clearly in position to add veteran talent in a bid to repeat their postseason appearances from 2018, the other teams listed by Chavez are in somewhat less-certain positions in respect to the open market. The Los Angeles and Cincinnati ballclubs are surely interested in spending to contend, but will need to choose their targets wisely. Meanwhile, Arizona is exploring sell-side deals while also trying to achieve value with new investments. That Soria appeals to all of these teams seems to suggest that the league believes the 34-year-old has plenty left in the tank. And for good reason: he just wrapped up a campaign in which he spun 60 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball, with a healthy 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 along with a personal-best 14.4% swinging-strike rate.
- Free agent southpaw Derek Holland is drawing multi-year interest, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). It’s all but impossible to gauge his true market at this stage, with some bigger dominoes still to fall, but it stands to reason that he’d make some degree of sense for a fairly broad group of clubs. At the outset of this year’s hot stove market, we guessed Holland could warrant a two-year, $15MM commitment. Though there are obvious limits to his value at 32 years of age, Holland did finally break out of a multi-year malaise with a strong 2018 campaign in which he contributed 171 1/3 frames and worked to a 3.57 ERA — his first full season of sub-4.00 ball since way back in 2013.
AL East News & Rumors: BoSox, Robertson, Yanks, Miller, Rays, O’s
It may take a three-year commitment to sign free-agent reliever David Robertson this offseason, but “the Red Sox are in for less,” a source tells George A. King III of the New York Post. Considering Robertson’s a Rhode Island resident who’d prefer to pitch in the Northeast, where he has spent most of his career, he looks like a logical fit for a Boston team which could lose Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly in free agency. However, if the Red Sox are only willing to hand Robertson a one- or two-year contract, a union between them and the longtime Yankee may not be in the cards.
Here’s more from the American League East:
- With both Robertson and Zach Britton on the open market, the Yankees have one of their ex-relievers, free-agent left-hander Andrew Miller, on their “radar,” per King. In 2014, the last time Miller was a free agent, he signed a four-year, $36MM deal with the Yankees. That proved to be a shrewd investment for the Yanks, who received brilliant production from Miller before trading him to Cleveland in a 2016 swap in which New York acquired Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield (the latter was just dealt to Seattle for high-end starter James Paxton). Miller stood out for most of his time with the Indians, including during their run to a World Series berth in 2016, but the 33-year-old is now fresh off an injury-shortened season in which his numbers fell off.
- The Athletics are making headway toward a new ballpark in their city, but the same isn’t true for the Rays, as Charlie Frago and Christopher O’Donnell of the Tampa Bay Times detail. While the Rays and officials in Hillsborough County, Fla., had been hoping to debut an $892MM ballpark in the Ybor City neighborhood of Tampa Bay in 2023, an agreement isn’t imminent as the Dec. 31 deadline looms, Frago and O’Donnell report. Consequently, the Rays may not move to a new stadium until 2024 or later. They’ve called the much-derided Tropicana Field home since they began play in 1998.
- It appears Brady Anderson, a prominent member of the Orioles’ previous front office, will stay in the fold under rookie general manager Mike Elias, according to Dan Connolly of The Athletic (subscription required). Not only that, but it seems Anderson – currently Baltimore’s vice president of baseball operations – will continue to serve in a major role, Connolly relays. Elias spoke highly of Anderson in an interview with Buster Olney of ESPN this week, saying (via Connolly): “He’s very smart, he’s very capable, and, most of all, he has a very deep love for this franchise. So, I’m looking forward to working with him.”
Pitching Market Notes: Eovaldi, Yankees, Happ, Kikuchi, Gray, MadBum
After a busy day of arbitration decisions, it’s worth taking stock of some recent developments in the broader market. We’ve already touched upon some major storylines today, with looks at Patrick Corbin (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Carlos Carrasco (link). Here’s more …
- Though Corbin seems to be captivating the market at present, chatter on Nathan Eovaldi is also “heating up,” per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox and Astros are presently seen as prime contenders to land him. With the American League shaping up to be another clash of titans, those organizations are positioned t stake some dough on Eovaldi’s upside.
- The Yankees are a major player on Corbin, of course, but also some other arms — and not just as a backup plan. Indeed, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter), the club could even add another significant starter if it does get Corbin. That’d be quite a surprise, given that the team would appear to have a clear starting five if Corbin signs, but perhaps there’s a way to pull something off that would still make sense and leave the club with immense rotation depth.
- Meanwhile, southpaw J.A. Happ is said to have “ten teams chasing” him at this point, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. One of those is the Brewers, who’d presumably like to bolster their rotation but also don’t appear to have an immense amount of money to use. Of course, giving up on Jonathan Schoop clears a big piece of payroll, so long as the club finds a way to address its infield needs without using all the savings.
- There’s also a “strong” market for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Heyman tweets. Unsurprisingly, west coast clubs — the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Mariners, at least — appear to be lining up for the 27-year-old. It’s still hard to know what kind of salary and duration he’ll be able to command. But as this particular list of clubs shows, Kikuchi’s unusual youth will play a major role in his market by opening the door to quite a few organizations to pursue him.
- Elsewhere, the Yankees are still trying to offload an asset in Sonny Gray. Per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, with GM Brian Cashman saying he has discussed a multitude of different scenarios involving Gray, including some larger deals. That suggests that the Yanks are comfortable hanging onto Gray for a while as they sort through the possibilities, rather than putting him on the market and taking the best deal then available.
- Gray is as good as gone from the team’s perspective, but that’s clearly not the same situation for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. The burly southpaw is reportedly on the table. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be priced at a level that will lead to a deal. Indeed one organizational source tells Heyman (Twitter link) they “don’t see [Bumgarner] going anywhere this winter.” Certainly, the Giants have little need to dump Bumgarner if they aren’t getting something worthwhile in return. Teams with interest, though, will remain wary of a big price for one season of a player with recent shoulder woes and some performance questions.
Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To Non-Tender Deadline
Tonight marks the deadline for MLB clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. As such, there’ll be a slew of pre-tender agreements announced today — particularly for arbitration-eligible players who might have otherwise been non-tender candidates. As we saw yesterday (and frequently in previous seasons), players agreeing to terms before the tender deadline will often sign for less than they’re projected, as the alternative in some cases may simply be to be cut loose into a crowded free-agent market.
We’ll track today’s pre-tender agreements here, with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…
- Giants infielder Joe Panik settled at a $3.8MM price tag, per Heyman (via Twitter). That’ll represent a savings as against the $4.2MM projected salary. Many had wondered whether the new San Francisco front office would move on from Panik, who has one more year of arb eligibility remaining. Meanwhile, Heyman tweets that reliever Sam Dyson has agreed to a $5MM pact. That also comes in $400K below his projection.
- The Padres settled with righty Bryan Mitchell for $900K, Heyman tweets. Mitchell had been a non-tender candidate at a projected $1.2MM sum.
- Newly acquired first baseman C.J. Cron has agreed to a $4.8MM contract, the Twins announced. He projected to a $5.2MM salary; this becomes the latest of many indications of the unstable market position of defensively limited slugger types.
- The Indians have settled with righty Danny Salazar for $4.5MM, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. He was projected at $5MM, with some wondering whether the Cleveland organization might non-tender him. The talented hurler missed the entire 2018 season. Meanwhile, righty Nick Goody is slated to earn $675K, Heyman tweets.
- Southpaw Jonny Venters avoided arb with the Braves, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. It’s a $2.25MM deal, sitting well over the $1.5MM projection, though certainly his unusual career path could have led to some additional arguments for a stronger raise.
- The Cardinals announced an agreement with lefty Chasen Shreve. Terms aren’t yet known. The 28-year-old had projected to take home $1.2MM for the 2019 campaign, but will settle at $900K per Heyman (via Twitter).
- Pirates righty Michael Feliz has avoided arbitration with the club, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. Feliz projected at a $900K salary and will get $850K, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. It’s a split agreement that promises $375K in the minors, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter).
- Infielder Tyler Saladino has agreed to a $887,500 salary with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. That comes in below the $1MM he projected to earn.
- The Athletics settled at $2.15MM with Liam Hendriks, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter), all of which is guaranteed. That’s just where he projected ($2.1MM) on the heels of a fascinating 2018 season. Hendriks was dropped from the MLB roster in the middle of the season but returned late in the year in dominant fashion as the A’s “opener.”
- Lefty Sammy Solis agreed to terms with the Nationals to avoid arbitration, the club announced. He profiled as a potential non-tender candidate, so it seems likely the organization pushed to get something done before the deadline. Solis, who has an intriguing power arsenal but struggled through a homer-prone 2018, projected at $900K. He’ll earn $850K, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
- The Athletics announced that they’ve agreed to a one-year deal with righty Ryan Dull in advance of tonight’s deadline. He’ll get $860K, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets, which checks in pretty closely with his $900K projection. Dull, 29, posted a 4.26 ERA with 21 strikeouts and seven walks in 25 1/3 innings of relief in 2018.
- Heyman also tweets that the Padres and Greg Garcia, whom they claimed off waivers earlier this offseason, settled on a one-year deal worth $910K that aligns with his $900K projection. Garcia hit .221/.309/.304 in 208 plate appearances with St. Louis last season and is a career .248/.356/.339 hitter in 860 plate appearances.
Earlier Agreements
- The Brewers and Hernan Perez avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.5MM, as first reported by Heyman. He’ll check in a bit shy of his $2.7MM projection but remain on hand as a versatile utility option in Milwaukee.
- Left-hander Tony Cingrani and the Dodgers avoided arb with a one-year deal worth $2.65MM. That checks in just south of the lefty’s $2.7MM projection. Cingrani turned in a brilliant 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings but was also tagged for a considerably less palatable 4.76 earned run average.
- The Red Sox announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a one-year contract for the 2019 season with right-hander Tyler Thornburg. They’ve also tendered contracts to the remainder of their arbitration-eligible players, though the terms of those deals will be negotiated in the coming weeks. Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets that Thornburg will earn $1.75MM i 2019 and can earn another $400K via incentives. I’m told that includes $100K for reaching each of 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances. Thornburg, 30, was roughed up to the tune of a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings for the Sox this season — his first action for Boston since being acquired prior to the 2017 season. His Boston tenure has been utterly derailed by thoracic outlet syndrome and the ensuing surgery. Thornburg was excellent for the 2016 Brewers, and Boston parted with Travis Shaw in order to acquire him, so the Sox will surely hope that a regular offseason of rest and further removing himself from TOS surgery will get the righty back on track. This will be Thornburg’s final season of club control. He’d been projected to earn $2.3MM.
Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts
Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.
After the first year of arbitration, it is typical for arbitration salaries to be rewarded as raises on top of previous year’s salaries, based on platform year performances. That sets Mookie Betts up for quite a hefty salary in 2019, since he nearly had a record high $10.5 million salary last year and had quite an accomplished 2018 campaign.
Mookie Betts won the MVP Award with a .346 average and 32 home runs. Batting out of the leadoff spot, he only had 80 RBI, but entering arbitration with the MVP Award, my model projects him to get an $8.2 million raise and earn $18.7 million. That would easily set a record for second time eligible salaries (Ryan Howard got $15 million way back in 2009), but would fall short of the record raise for second time eligible players. Bryce Harper set the latter mark in 2017 with $8.63 million riase. Harper’s case was atypical, though, because it came following a two-year deal. Other than that, Betts is projected for the largest raise ever—which does make sense following an MVP season.
In the last decade, only two players have entered their second year of arbitration coming off an MVP season—Josh Donaldson in 2016 and Josh Hamilton way back in 2011. Not only is Hamilton a stale comp at this point, but both received multi-year deals that might make them less likely to be used as comparables. While Donaldson’s $7.35 million raise would therefore not typically be a useful comparable, both he and the Blue Jays filed numbers in a tight band ($7.05 million and $7.5 million) that were also quite close to the actual result. Given that the comp is a few years out of date, it seems reasonable for Betts to argue that the Donaldson salary point represents a clear floor. Since Donaldson hit .297 with 41 HR and 123 RBI, his performance was more power-centric. But it certainly suggests roughly an $8 million raise for a reigning MVP is close to the right price.
Betts also won the batting title, which also calls back to Charlie Blackmon and Dee Gordon in recent years. The latter had only four home runs in 2015, so he is a weak comparable. Blackmon is a little stronger since his 2016 numbers — .324/29/82 — delivered some of the punch that Betts did at .346/32/80. That earned him a $3.8 million raise, which was actually well shy of what the model predicted. If there’s any added boost for the batting title, then, it’s tough to gauge.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox can certainly try to point to the Blackmon comp if they want to hold Betts’ salary down, but the Donaldson raise seems like a more compelling precedent since he won the MVP Award. And it probably does not hurt Betts’s negotiating position that he scored a major win over the Sox last year in a hearing. All things considered, I suspect Betts will get a record raise and earn quite close to his 2019 projection.
Projecting Payrolls: Boston Red Sox
As we kick off the seventh installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.
Today, we visit with the other Sox and reigning champions: the Boston Red Sox.
Team Leadership
The most recent significant ownership change for the Red Sox saw John Henry, Tom Werner, and the New York Times (yes, that New York Times) purchase the club from the JRY Trust, established following the 1992 death of team owner Jean Yawkey, the widow of Tom Yawkey. The Times sold its interest in two separate sales in 2011 and 2012, leaving Henry and Werner as the primary owners and Henry alone as the face of ownership.
The baseball operations department underwent a massive shakeup late in the 2015 season with longtime contender builder Dave Dombrowski joining the fold as President of Baseball Operations with former general manager Ben Cherington stepping aside in a corresponding move. Dombrowski had previously assembled pennant winners in Miami (1997) and Detroit (2006, 2012) before his arrival in Beantown. Over his three seasons, the Red Sox have averaged 98 wins per year, recording at least 93 victories each season.
Historical Payrolls
Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Red Sox, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.
As a major franchise playing in a major city, it comes as no surprise that the Red Sox have spent and spent big year after year.
While Red Sox spending has always been significant, it took a notable jump following the only Yankees World Series win of the past 15 years as the 2010 Boston payroll increased a little over 38 percent from 2009. Since then, the Red Sox have remained near the top echelon of spenders.
That changed in 2018 as Boston blew away the competition financially, finishing the year as the only American League team to pay the luxury tax. The Red Sox made approximately $22 million in luxury tax payments from 2005-17, but they pushed the envelope in 2018, incurring a tax bill of at least $12.7 million and possibly more depending on the final calculation.
International spending has also been a hallmark of the franchise, as was blowing past slot recommendations for draft picks prior to the new rules that severely disincentivized the action. The Red Sox were responsible for arguably the most famous example of overspending international bonus pools under the previous system, throwing a $31.5 million bonus to Yoan Moncada, complete with a corresponding $31.5 million tax payment in February 2015.
The Red Sox also allocated a massive sum to the posting fee paid of $51,111,111.11 to the Seibu Lions in advance of the 2007 season for the rights to negotiate with starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Needless to say, Major League payroll has comprised only a significant portion of team spending, hardly the entirety of it.
Future Liabilities
Unlike some other teams in this series to date, the Red Sox have significant present and future guaranteed liabilities. Here are the guaranteed future dollars with club options highlighted in peach and the opt-out clause for J.D. Martinez that follows the 2019 season shown in light blue.
There is a lot to digest here.
The remaining four years and $127 million owed to David Price naturally jumps out. After a strong debut season, Price hasn’t delivered the ace-level production that the team hoped for when they signed him, but Red Sox fans enjoyed watching Price hoist the World Series trophy this fall after 26 solid postseason innings. He’s hardly an albatross, even if his contract doesn’t offer value at this point.
After a superstar offensive season, Martinez’s contract appears increasingly likely to be a two-year, $50 million deal instead of a five-year, $110 million pact as was guaranteed. If his 2019 is half as successful as his 2018, Martinez will opt out of the deal and pocket the $2.5 million buyout that comes along with the decision to do so. In the meantime, he’ll serve as an essential middle-of-the-order bat for the defending champions.
The remaining multi-year commitments go to players unlikely to help the next championship team in Boston. Pedroia has been a mainstay, but knee injuries may very well render him unable to return to form especially at 35. 2017 indicated that Vazquez had emerged as a defensive force with a palatable, if below average, offensive game at 27. 2018 indicated that 2017 was a mirage. It remains to be seen what value, if any, Boston will milk out of the remainder of Vazquez’s deal.
The remaining current players are all on one-year deals and they all figure to play a starting-level role for the team in 2018. Sale is a perennial Cy Young contender heading toward a record-breaking contract, Porcello won the award himself in 2016, and Moreland, Pearce, and Nunez all figure to get north of 400 plate appearances next year. The club features a ton of walk-year talent.
Of course, the future commitments to players aren’t limited to current Red Sox players by a long stretch. The team owes a staggering $47.5 million to released free agent flop Sandoval and Triple-A 30-year-old Castillo. Perhaps the club will find a taker for Castillo if he comes along with approximately $22 million, though it’s worth noting that he does not count against the Red Sox luxury tax payroll as long as he remains off of the team’s 40-man roster.
Finally, former stars Ramirez and Pedroia will receive just over $34 million between them into the middle of the next decade, a sum that is not insignificant but also doesn’t figure to move the needle much for the deep pockets in Boston. Those amounts have already been accounted for in regards to the luxury tax, so they won’t hurt Boston when making that calculation.
While the guarantees feature plenty of star power, there is no shortage of elite talent to be found among the arbitration eligible Red Sox. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):
Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley have long formed a young core for the club. Bradley’s bat has been below average the last two seasons, but Betts and Bogaerts have both regularly combined strong offense and defense to be impact players. With two years of control remaining on Betts and Bradley and one on Bogaerts, the team will likely continue extension talks. Obviously they have not found common ground to date, and it’s not known whether the Red Sox will succeed in locking down any of the three.
Rodriguez has grown into an above-average starting pitcher, albeit one who routinely misses time with injury issues. He figures to hold a rotation job through the coming years.
The remaining arbitration eligible Red Sox primarily serve to complement the bevy of ultra-talented players listed above.
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
Perhaps unsurprisingly, not much to date. They’ve been busy winning the World Series and celebrating their newest championship. The most noteworthy disclosure came from Henry following the season when he noted that the team won’t push their payroll to the top luxury tax penalties every season, calling out 2018 as an exception where adding the missing piece was worth the extra expenditure.
Are the Red Sox a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
Well this is a tricky one. The Red Sox are obviously massive spenders who routinely find themselves with one of the top five payrolls in the game. Generally speaking, that is expected to be a prerequisite for entering the fray for Harper and/or Machado.
However, Boston has already committed major dollars to its championship core — a core that will only get more expensive in the next two years — and it would seemingly require major roster reconstruction to fit either young star into their group. In the case of Machado, there would also have to be a resolution of the conflict dating back to his April 2017 takeout slide of Pedroia.
Then again, it’s the Boston Red Sox. They shouldn’t be fully counted out for any big-time talent.
In the end, I’ll say that they’re not players for Harper or Machado. It’s too tough to see the math work from my vantage point.
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
More than for any other team that we have examined to date, the luxury tax is going to be a major factor for the Red Sox this winter. If the team makes no additional moves, they’ll have a cash payroll of $214.2 million and a luxury tax payroll of $216.0 million, assuming that Castillo remains off of the 40-man roster and, thus, doesn’t count against their tax payroll. With the luxury tax line sitting at $206 million, it’s awfully difficult to see how Boston gets under the line without sacrificing a key contributor or two. That’s no way to defend a title.
Instead, I suspect that the Red Sox will try to minimize their tax bill and ensure that they avoid hitting the $246 million threshold at which point their top draft pick is dropped 10 spots. It seems overwhelmingly likely that they will incur the 12 percent surtax for exceeding $226 million in luxury tax payroll, but, again, I expect that they will avoid the 42.5 percent surtax for exceeding $246 million in luxury tax payroll.
Provided that they plan to leave a little space for in-season acquisitions, let’s peg them at a spending level that enables the club to replace Craig Kimbrel at the back of the bullpen without breaking the bank.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $230 million cash ($232 million luxury tax)
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $15.8 million
Mets To Hire Allard Baird, Adam Guttridge As Assistant GM’s
The Mets have landed two new assistant general managers to serve under new baseball operations leader Brodie Van Wagenen. Allard Baird will become vice president and assistant GM of scouting and player development, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). And Adam Guttridge will step in as assistant GM of systematic development, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.
Baird comes over from the Red Sox, where he had been the senior VP of player personnel. He previously interviewed for the Mets’ GM opening back in 2010. The former Royals GM (Dayton Moore’s predecessor) recently turned 57 years of age.
Needless to say, having been in Boston dating back to the Theo Epstein regime, Baird is a respected veteran front office member. He got his start in a coaching and scouting capacity but moved into an upper-level role when he became the K.C. AGM back in 1998. His opinion has been an important one with the Red Sox; as the organization puts it in its own front office directory, Baird is (was) “a key voice on all player personnel decisions for the club.”
As for Guttridge, he’ll presumably be tasked with building out a top-of-the-line analytics unit in Queens. As Anthony Rieber of Newsday writes, the 33-year-old has an extensive background in statistical evaluation. He has most recently operated NEIFI Analytics, a company that sells its analysis to MLB clubs and bills itself as offering “a logically consistent and empirically validated view of the baseball landscape from the major leagues all the way down to the NCAA.”
These moves, taken together, represent notable additions for Van Wagenen. His top lieutenants would seem to be of particular importance given his own lack of experience working in (let alone running) a baseball ops department. It’s not yet full certain what other senior voices will remain on hand. Former GM Omar Minaya is expected to stay, but the fate of long-time AGM John Ricco has yet to be decided. Previously, J.P. Ricciardi departed the Mets organization.