Reds Rumors

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/27/20

By TC Zencka | June 27, 2020 at 9:19pm CDT

The latest draft signings…

Reds To Sign Austin Hendrick

By Steve Adams | June 26, 2020 at 1:13pm CDT

The Reds have agreed to terms on a $4MM signing bonus with first-round pick Austin Hendrick, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link). That’s a bit shy of the $4,366,400 value associated with Hendrick’s No. 12 slot. A high school outfielder from Pennsylvania, the 19-year-old Hendrick had been committed to Mississippi State but will instead turn pro.

Widely regarded as one of the top prep bats in this year’s draft, Hendrick is touted for his raw power and bat speed — two traits that landed him as a slam-dunk first-rounder on virtually any pre-draft rankings one could find. Baseball America tabbed him ninth in this year’s class. MLB.com ranked him 13th, as did FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Keith Law of The Athletic ranked Hendrick 21st. He’s also credited with an above-average arm, giving him the profile of a prototypical slugging right fielder. He’s seen as an average or better runner for now, though, so Callis notes that there’s a chance he could handle center field at the game’s top level as well.

If there are red flags in the reports on Hendrick, it’s his penchant for swinging and missing and the fact that he’s a bit old for the class, having turned 19 shortly after the draft. Hendrick didn’t face tons of premium pitching in high school, either, so he could have some adjustments to make in pro ball. As with so many high school draftees, then, there’s a fair bit of risk associated with Hendrick but also tantalizing upside. He’ll bring one of the draft’s most powerful bats to a Reds system that is currently lacking on premium outfield prospects.

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/25/20

By Connor Byrne | June 25, 2020 at 10:36pm CDT

A look at the latest post-Round 1 signings from this year’s draft class…

The Mariners have signed second-round outfielder Zach DeLoach and fifth-round right-hander Taylor Dollard, the team announced. DeLoach, the 43rd overall pick, will make full slot value of $1,729,800, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports. The ex-Texas A&M outfielder ranked as MLB.com’s 79th-best pre-draft prospect. Dollard, the 137th choice, also signed for slot value ($406K), Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com tweets. The former Cal Poly hurler was MLB.com’s No. 184 prospect entering the draft.
The Rays have signed second-rounder Ian Seymour, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The former Virginia Tech left-hander reached a deal worth $1,243,600, full slot value for his pick (No. 57), according to Robert Murray. Keith Law of The Athletic rated Seymour as the No. 94 prospect available heading into the draft, writing that he has a “very funky” delivery and could have a chance to amount to something more than a back-end starter if he improves one of his three pitches (fastball, changeup, breaking ball).
The Cardinals announced that they’ve reached an agreement with Arkansas high school right-hander Tink Hence, the 63rd overall pick. Financial details are unknown, but the recommended slot value checks in at $1,076,300. The Cardinals acquired the Competitive Balance Round B selection they used on Hence in a noteworthy trade with the Rays in January. Hence entered the draft as the 123rd-ranked prospect available at Baseball America. He committed to the University of Arkansas before the draft.
The Reds have inked fourth-rounder Mackenzie Wainwright, Callis tweets. The 113th overall pick signed for his full slot value, $512,400. While shin issues have hampered Wright, Callis observes that the Ohio high schooler outfielder and Ohio State recruit possesses “projectable power” and a “solid arm.”

Reds Have Nearly $300MM In Post-2020 Payroll Promises

By Jeff Todd | June 17, 2020 at 11:38am CDT

2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Reds:

*Includes buyouts on club options over Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, Wade Miley, and Tucker Barnhart

*Includes deferrals and buyout on mutual option in Nick Castellanos contract; Castellanos may opt out after 2020 or 2021

(click to expand/view detail list)

Each NL Team’s Top Recent Draft Class

By Anthony Franco | June 7, 2020 at 12:29pm CDT

With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each National League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit on their picks in certain years.

First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…

Braves: 2007 (76.6 bWAR) – Hitting on Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman in the first two rounds goes a long way. Heyward has been a disappointment with the Cubs but had some electrifying seasons in his early days in Atlanta (and his year in St. Louis), while Freeman has emerged as a fixture in the Braves’ lineup as one of the best hitters in baseball over the past decade.
Brewers: 2009 (30.7 bWAR) – This was period of some underwhelming draft returns for Milwaukee. The 2009 class tops the list thanks to Khris Davis, Mike Fiers and Scooter Gennett, all of whom are better known for their play (or whistleblowing, in Fiers’ case) elsewhere.
Cardinals: 2006 (56.3 bWAR) – By virtue of putting up baseball’s best record in 2005, the Cardinals sat at the back of every round in 2006. No matter, as they managed to find a handful of highly productive big leaguers. First-rounder Adam Ottavino didn’t work out in St. Louis but went on to a strong career as a reliever in Colorado. Tommy Pham (16th round) and Jon Jay (2nd round) have each carved out strong careers, while Allen Craig (8th round) had a brief but productive peak.
Cubs: 2007 (54.4 bWAR) – Unfortunately for the Cubs, this class is almost all about Josh Donaldson, who did none of his damage in a Chicago uniform. Perhaps Javier Báez (2012 draft) or Kris Bryant (2013 draft) will match or exceed Donaldson’s stellar career in time.
Diamondbacks: 2009 (73.1 bWAR) – Paul Goldschmidt (8th round) went on to become the top position player in franchise history. First-rounder AJ Pollock had a couple star-level seasons of his own before injuries knocked him off track, while Chase Anderson (9th round) has emerged as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.
Dodgers: 2006 (70.6 bWAR) – The Dodgers only signed two big leaguers from the 2006 class. When one of them goes on to become arguably the best pitcher of his generation, you can more than get away with it. Clayton Kershaw’s Hall of Fame plaque will boast at least three Cy Young Awards and an NL MVP.
Giants: 2008 (65.6 bWAR) – The late-2000’s draft classes set up the crux of the Giants’ three World Series titles the first half of the next decade. None was more impactful than 2008, when SF grabbed Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford in the first and fourth rounds, respectively.
Marlins: 2010 (56.1 bWAR) – Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto have matured into two of the best players in baseball, so the Marlins’ 2010 class (which also boasted late-blooming A’s slugger Mark Canha) has a chance to be really special. Of course, none of those players are still in Miami.
Mets: 2010 (50.5 bWAR) – Seventh overall pick Matt Harvey was briefly the ace the Mets hoped they were adding in 2010. As it turns out, Jacob deGrom (9th round) had a lot more staying power atop their rotation.
Nationals: 2009 (44.9 bWAR) – First overall pick Stephen Strasburg has more than made good on that selection, culminating in a World Series MVP effort in 2019. The 2009 class also brought in a handful of role players, including Drew Storen and Michael Taylor.
Padres: 2007 (38.9 bWAR) – Another team for whom the top player simply got away, the crown jewel of the Padres’ 2007 class was Corey Kluber (4th round). Obviously, even San Diego didn’t him expect him to go on to win a pair of Cy Young Awards.
Phillies: 2014 (24.2 bWAR) – There were some tough results for the Phillies on draft day in recent seasons, but 2014 looks to be a notable exception. Aaron Nola went seventh overall and has emerged as a high-level starter, while Rhys Hoskins (fifth round) looks like the Phils’ long-term answer at first base.
Pirates: 2011 (29.7 bWAR) – The Pirates’ 2011 class is almost exclusively about the contributions of first overall pick Gerrit Cole, but he obviously reached his peak after being traded to Houston. Josh Bell (2nd round) looked to have turned the corner at the plate in the first half of 2019.
Reds: 2007 (43.1 bWAR) – The Reds found three future everyday players in the 2007 class. Todd Frazier (supplemental first-round), Zack Cozart (2nd round) and Devin Mesoraco (1st round) all went on to become productive players in Cincinnati.
Rockies: 2009 (47.4 bWAR) – The Rockies graduated six players from the 2009 class to the big leagues, although only one proved a smashing success. Finding a player of Nolan Arenado’s caliber in the second round makes for a great draft even if the rest of the players taken underwhelm.

Eugenio Suarez “100 Percent” Following January Shoulder Operation

By Steve Adams | June 4, 2020 at 10:47am CDT

Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez is back to 100 percent after January’s surgery to remove loose cartilage from his shoulder, president of baseball operations Dick Williams tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (Twitter link).

The Cincinnati organization has provided steadily positive updates on Suarez throughout the rehab process, with Williams saying last month that the expectation was for Suarez and Nick Senzel to be “full-go” when play resumes. Of course, setbacks can always occur even in the final stages of rehabilitation, but it seems Suarez avoided any hiccups in working his shoulder back to full strength.

If the league and union are able to come to terms on a new start date, then, Suarez will be a fixture in the middle of an improved Reds lineup that added Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Nippon Professional Baseball star Shogo Akiyama to the mix in free agency this winter. A rebound from Joey Votto and/or a step forward from the highly touted Senzel would only further brighten the outlook.

As for Suarez, it’s unlikely that he’ll slug home runs at the same prodigious rate as he did in 2019, but he’s demonstrated solid power output and a keen eye at the plate over each of the past three seasons while quietly establishing himself as one of the league’s better third basemen. In an even 1900 plate appearances dating back to 2017, Suarez has slashed .271/.364/.521 with 109 home runs, 69 doubles and six triples. Among the 338 hitters with at least 500 plate appearances in that three-year span, Suarez is tied for 38th with a 128 wRC+ and tied for 25th overall in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement (12.3). Suarez is signed through the 2024 season, and the Reds hold a 2025 club option as well.

Latest On Teams’ Plans For Minor League Pay

By Steve Adams | May 29, 2020 at 3:14pm CDT

3:14pm: The Astros will also pay their minor leaguers through August, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets. The Red Sox will do the same, Julian McWilliams and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe write. The Reds will pay theirs through Sept. 7, the end of the scheduled minor league season, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.

2:16pm: As teams throughout the league make sweeping releases at the minor league level, neither the Twins nor the Royals plan on cutting any players, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). The Twins and Royals will also commit to paying all of their minor league player the current $400 weekly stipend through Aug. 31 — the would-be end of the minor league season — while providing full benefits. The Twins are also committing to front-office and baseball ops staff through at least the end of June, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com tweets.

To this point, no other clubs in the league have made such a commitment. The Marlins, Padres and Mariners all agreed to pay their minor leaguers through season’s end, although none of that bunch is known to be entirely avoiding minor league releases. Seattle, in fact, reportedly cut 50 minor league players this week already. The volume of players being released around the league is jarring — the D-backs cut a reported 64 players — although it should be noted that many of the releases would’ve come at the end of Spring Training under normal circumstances anyhow.

That doesn’t detract from the gesture made by the Twins or Royals, of course. It’s a stark contrast to an organization such as the Athletics, who informed minor league players earlier this week that they’ll no longer be paid after May 31. As MLB.com’s Jim Callis observes (on Twitter), the decision made by the Twins and Royals could quite likely prove beneficial in recruiting undrafted players who are selecting among teams while capped at a $20K signing bonus this summer.

Which 15 Players Should The Reds Protect In An Expansion Draft?

By Tim Dierkes | May 26, 2020 at 11:00pm CDT

In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it! Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve covered the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles. The Reds are up next.

First, we’ll remove free agents Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Freddy Galvis, and Pedro Strop from consideration. Nick Castellanos can opt out of his contract after the 2020 season, but for this exercise we’ll assume he doesn’t. Joey Votto will make the protected list by virtue of his no-trade rights. I’ll protect a total of five players out of the gate:

Joey Votto
Luis Castillo
Eugenio Suarez
Sonny Gray
Nick Senzel

That leaves 10 remaining spots for these 26 players, so you have a lot of flexibility on this one. You can check out Reds contract info here.

Shogo Akiyama
Aristides Aquino
Tucker Barnhart
Alex Blandino
Matt Bowman
Curt Casali
Nick Castellanos
Jose De Leon
Phillip Ervin
Kyle Farmer
Amir Garrett
Raisel Iglesias
Travis Jankowski
Joel Kuhnel
Michael Lorenzen
Tyler Mahle
Wade Miley
Mike Moustakas
Cody Reed
Scott Schebler
Justin Shafer
Lucas Sims
Josh D. Smith
Robert Stephenson
Josh VanMeter
Jesse Winker

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly ten players you think the Reds should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Scooter Gennett On Why He Didn’t Sign Anywhere This Winter

By Steve Adams | May 22, 2020 at 11:45am CDT

Former Reds, Brewers and Giants second baseman Scooter Gennett remains unsigned, and the 2018 All-Star chatted with Doug Fernandes of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune this week about his decision not to accept an offer over the winter. Gennett details that he did receive some offers, but they were either non-guaranteed or not to his liking from a financial standpoint. The top offer he received was a $1.5MM guarantee with incentives, but he’d been targeting a deal in the $5MM range. That offer also came from a club with an everyday second baseman, it seems, so he’d likely have been viewed as a bench piece.

Many fans will bristle at Gennett’s candid comments on free agency and compensation, particularly given the current economic crisis that has been brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. Gennett, though, has earned more than $19MM in his career to date and has clearly set a personal valuation both on his abilities and the level of compensation he’d require to spend another season on the road and away from his wife and family, as any player would. “You’re 220 days away from your family,” says Gennett.

The 2019 season was a tough one for Gennett, who tore a muscle in his groin during Spring Training and now acknowledges that he came back before he was ready. That was his own decision, he emphasizes, and his results clearly suffered. After hitting a combined .303/.351/.508 with 50 home runs for the Reds in 2017-18, Gennett limped to a .226/.245/.323 slash in 139 plate appearances last year. The Reds traded him to the Giants just prior to the trade deadline, receiving only cash consideration in return. San Francisco released him less than a month later.

Over the winter, Gennett reportedly drew interest from as many as six teams, with the Cubs known to be one suitor. The Cubs, however, have avoided major free agent signings over the past two offseasons and were looking for more of a low-cost pickup. Not long after being linked to Gennett, they instead signed Jason Kipnis to the same type of minor league contract to which Gennett expresses aversion in his interview with Fernandes.

Gennett is still just 30, so there’s certainly time for him to stage a comeback if he chooses to play again. He’s still working out, but he’s also frank in telling Fernandes that he is “fine with not playing.” If salary is the sticking point, it’s hard to envision his earning power on his next contract being higher than it was over the winter. A club doesn’t seem likely to top that offer once play resumes, given the revenue losses throughout the league, and sitting out for a year would surely limit him to a minor league deal if he did decide he wanted to return to the game.

Reds Expect Suarez, Senzel To Be “Full Go”

By Steve Adams | May 18, 2020 at 11:52am CDT

Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and center fielder Nick Senzel, both key figures in a bolstered Reds lineup, are expected to be “full go” whenever play is able to resume, president of baseball operations Dick Williams told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon this morning. Both players were recovering from shoulder surgery.

Suarez, 28, went under the knife in late January after injuring his shoulder while swimming during an offseason workout. There was some hope that he’d be ready for Opening Day, but that was a best-case and rather aggressive scenario. He didn’t appear in a Spring Training game, although Sheldon notes that he was on the cusp of getting some DH work in Cactus League play when Spring Training was shut down.

The 24-year-old Senzel underwent a much more serious procedure last September to repair a torn labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder. He’d gotten into some spring games as a designated hitter as well but had yet to play in the field.

Given where both were in Spring Training, it’s not exactly a surprise that both are expected to be full strength when “spring” training relaunches — be it in mid-June under the current best-case scenario or a bit further down the road. Still, this is the first public update on the pair’s health provided by the Reds since late March, so the confirmation is of some note.

Both Suarez and Senzel will be prominent factors as the Reds look to snap a playoff drought that dates back to 2013, when they fell to the Pirates in the NL Wild Card game. Suarez took his game to a new level last year, clubbing a surprising 49 home runs — a figure that trailed only Pete Alonso for the NL lead. The slugger has five guaranteed seasons remaining (including 2020) on the seven-year, $66MM extension he inked two years ago, and the Reds control him for 2025 as well via a club option.

Senzel, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft, ranked among baseball’s elite prospects from the time he was drafted until last year’s rookie season. He didn’t exactly take baseball by storm, hitting .256/.315/.427 through 414 plate appearances, but between the September shoulder surgery, a March ankle injury and an elbow procedure that caused him to miss the Arizona Fall League in 2018, Senzel dealt with a number ailments that might’ve weighed down his performance.

Drafted as an infielder, Senzel has worked all over the diamond but was moved to center field last spring. He fared well there, particularly considering his inexperience, and the Reds envision him lining up there more often than not, with the likes of Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama flanking him. Of course, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently noted, if the Reds are comfortable bouncing Senzel all over the diamond in a super-utility role, that versatility and the likely implementation of the DH in the National League could leave skipper David Bell with innumerable mix-and-match opportunities on a daily basis.

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