Reds Rumors

NL Central Notes: Flaherty, Urias, Reds, Williams

By Mark Polishuk | March 5, 2020 at 9:02pm CDT

Cardinals right-hander Jack Flaherty may be headed for a contract renewal for the second straight offseason since he has yet to agree to his 2020 contract, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cards use a strict formula for giving salary raises for pre-arbitration players and Flaherty didn’t agree to his deal last year, leaving $10K in salary on the table and forcing the Cards to renew his 2019 contract for $562.1K, just $7.1K over the league minimum salary. “Flaherty wanted his disagreement with the Cardinals’ valuation of his salary noted, and that was worth the $10,000 penalty,” Goold wrotes.

As per the Cardinals’ formula, Goold reports that Flaherty is now in line for a salary close to $605K for the 2020 season — a 7.3 percent increase over the minimum salary, which is a new record raise since St. Louis adopted its formula. Still, such a raise is still very small potatoes considering Flaherty’s great 2019 numbers, and also indicative of how little leverage pre-arbitration players have in earning any extra money for outstanding performance. Flaherty is in line for a big raise once he enters the arbitration process next winter, though (barring an extension) the real big money won’t come until he hits free agency following the 2023 season.

Quick Hits: Lindor, Galvis, C. Taylor, Olympics

By Connor Byrne | March 5, 2020 at 1:01am CDT

As recently as mid-February, Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor called Cleveland “home” and expressed a willingness to stay with the club. No extension has come together yet, but Indians president Chris Antonetti said Tuesday that “neither side has given up trying,” per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. However, Lindor noted he has an “early March” deadline on contract talks, so it appears the Indians are running out of time to lock him up in the near future (if they haven’t already). Odds have long been against the Indians finding a way to keep Lindor from hitting free agency when his team control runs out after 2021, as the 26-year-old is on pace to wind up with one of the largest contracts in the history of the game if and when he reaches the open market.

Reds shortstop Freddy Galvis suffered “a quad strain during a baserunning drill,” according to manager David Bell (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Galvis underwent an MRI, but the severity of the injury isn’t known at this time. The Reds looked ripe for an upgrade at short during the offseason, but they instead stuck with Galvis, whom they claimed from Toronto last August and then retained by way of a $5.5MM club option during the winter. Now, if Galvis’ injury is severe enough to cost him regular-season time, it’s unclear who will fill in at short for the Reds. Alex Blandino and Kyle Farmer might be the most logical in-house choices, but neither brings much experience to the table.
Dodgers utility player Chris Taylor’s out of action for the moment after taking a pitch off the back of the left shoulder, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. There’s no indication that it’s anything but a minor injury for Taylor, whom a fractured left forearm limited to 124 games in 2019. The versatile Taylor was a highly valuable player for the Dodgers from 2017-18, but his numbers dipped last season during a campaign in which he batted .262/.333/.462 with 1.7 fWAR in 414 plate appearances.
Major League Baseball and the MLBPA reached a deal with the world baseball governing body that will allow minor leaguers to participate in this summer’s Olympic Games, the Yonhap News Agency relays. The agreement will give national teams the right to select minor leaguers from MLB teams’ 40-man rosters to participate in the Olympics, but anyone on a 26-man roster will be protected. That means there could be some familiar names to baseball fans in the Olympics, which will include the sport for the first time in 12 years.

Pedro Strop On Cubs’ Interest In Free Agency

By Connor Byrne | March 4, 2020 at 10:16pm CDT

This past offseason was not one to remember for the Cubs, a big-market, high-payroll team that spent a mere $3.5MM on free agents after failing to make the playoffs in 2019. The club also lost quite a few of its own notable free agents, including reliever Pedro Strop, even though the right-hander revealed Wednesday that Chicago had interest in retaining him.

“They did try hard to bring me back. It’s just money-wise, they couldn’t, because they weren’t allowed [with] all the salary cap stuff; they wanted to try to stay below,” Strop said (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times).

The 34-year-old Strop, a Cub from 2013-19, ended up with the National League Central rival Reds on a modest single-season pact worth $1.825MM. The Cubs weren’t even willing to go to those lengths for Strop, however, thanks in part to their desire to stay under the luxury tax (not the nonexistent salary cap) this year. They were one of three teams that had to pay the tax in 2019, when they were forced to fork over a $7.6MM bill. The threshold then was $206MM, but it has climbed to $208MM for 2020. Although they spent next to nothing over the winter, the Cubs project to start this season about $6MM over that mark, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs.

Should the tax really be a concern for the deep-pocketed Cubs? Arguably not. Regardless, there’s a case that the Cubs won’t get hurt by letting Strop walk, even though a divisional foe grabbed him for a relatively inexpensive guarantee. Strop was an excellent late-game option for a large portion of his tenure in Chicago, but he took noticeable steps backward last year. For example, Strop posted the worst full-season run prevention marks of his career (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP) and one of his highest walk rates (4.32 per nine) across 41 2/3 innings. Furthermore, after averaging more than 95 mph on his fastball in each of his prior seasons as a Cub, his mean velocity dropped to 93.7 in 2019. A Strop rebound remains possible, though, and the Cubs are left to hope he doesn’t return to his old form for a Reds team that bought low on him.

NL Notes: Cubs, Bryant, Heyward, Reds, Mahle, Nationals, Castro

By TC Zencka | February 29, 2020 at 10:59pm CDT

The Cubs aren’t yet sure how David Ross’ style as a tactician will differ from his predecessor, but Ross’ decisions are starting to trickle in and lend some clarity to the Cubs’ 2020 season. For starters, Kris Bryant as the leadoff man does not feel like an experiment – it’s happening. Ross likes Bryant’s speed and baserunning ability, and to his credit, there’s really nothing to dislike about Bryant in the leadoff spot. It does create questions further down the order, but coming off a season in which their leadoff men were last in the league with a .294 OBP, that’s a tradeoff they’re willing to make, per Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune. The other major decision passed down today was that Jason Heyward would remain in right field as often as possible. Given Heyward’s tremendous defensive abilities and a wRC+ that’s been at league average over the last two years, and it makes some sense to profile Heyward as a centerfielder. He’s more comfortable in right, however, and his glove does play as a genuine asset there. Let’s check in on a couple other National League clubs…

Tyler Mahle will be more than okay coming out of the bullpen for the Reds if that means staying in the big leagues, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In the rotation last year, Mahle went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA/4.66 FIP across 129 2/3 innings in 25 starts. According to Mahle, his biggest problem was the lack of an effective put away breaking ball, something he’s working on by adding a slider. There might be something to Mahle’s analysis, as his curveball induced a 26.6 whiff%. More to the point might be his 7.11 ERA against left-handed hitters, though it’s part and parcel of the same issue, likely.
Starlin Castro is energized by the opportunity to play for a contender again, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. Between the changes that Castro made to his approach in the second half of last year, and his excitement over playing in games of consequence again, the Nationals are finding reasons to believe in Castro’s potential to make up for some of the offense lost in the wake of Anthony Rendon’s departure. Castro’s a difficult player to pin down in terms of ability, but he is a four-time All-Star entering his age-30 season, and before the terms of his current two-year deal run out, he may even cross the 2,000 hit threshold.

NL Notes: Senzel, D-backs, Rockies, Giants

By Connor Byrne | February 28, 2020 at 12:58am CDT

Reds outfielder Nick Senzel could begin appearing in spring training games next week, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Senzel has been working back from the shoulder surgery he underwent last September, and though the Reds believe he’s versatile enough to handle all three outfield positions, they’re only going to play him in center until he’s fully healed, according to manager David Bell. “I know he could do it but allowing him to focus on one spot may be more important than any of our other outfielders just because they all have so much more experience out there than he does,” Bell said of Senzel, a former infield prospect who spent his rookie season in center. The 24-year-old’s one of several outfielders for the Reds, who also count Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker, Shogo Akiyama and Aristides Aquino among their options in the grass.

Trevor Bauer Discusses Future

By Connor Byrne | February 27, 2020 at 11:03pm CDT

Always known for thinking outside the box, Reds right-hander Trevor Bauer has another unconventional idea: Wherever he signs as a free agent after this season, he wants to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

“It only seems crazy because no one is doing it right now,” Bauer said of his plan. “But I’m very convicted in the fact that, one, I can do it. Two, I would be better doing it. And three, it would be a benefit to my team.”

Along with that request, Bauer wants to play for a contender that respects him and values technology, Nightengale relays. That all seems reasonable enough, but whether anyone would sign him with the intention of starting him every fourth day is an open question. Regardless, it’s not the first time Bauer has expressed a willingness to pitch on short rest.

Back when he was a member of the Indians during the 2017 ALDS, Bauer made a start on three days’ rest, saying beforehand, “I consider this normal rest for me.” He added, “If I could draw it up personally, this is how I’d pitch every time.”

Bauer then went out and yielded four earned runs in 1 2/3 innings in a loss to the Yankees, though it wouldn’t be fair to pass judgment based on a one-game sample size.

Aside from offering his opinions on how much rest he prefers, Bauer has raised eyebrows in the past by expressing a desire to eschew long-term contracts and sign one-year deals for the rest of his career. While discussing that subject with Nightengale, the 29-year-old seemed less sure of how he’ll proceed.

“I mean, I don’t know how I’m going to react once free agency gets here,” Bauer stated. “I said what I said, but you can never know how it’s going to go until you actually get there.”

Bauer also noted that he’s not motivated by money at this point, having “made a lot of” it during his career. He earned just under $30MM in salaries from 2011-19, according to Baseball Reference, and will make another $17.5MM this season in his last year of arbitration control.

Bauer may be in for another big salary in 2021, but it’s fair to say that will depend in part on how he pitches this year. While he had a rough go of it with the Reds after they acquired him from the Indians last July, his combined production between the two teams was still decent. The hard-throwing Bauer wound up with a 4.48 ERA/4.34 FIP and 10.69 K/9 and 3.46 BB/9 in a career-best 213 innings (his fifth straight season with 175 or more frames), but those numbers pale in comparison to his all-world output from 2018.

NL Notes: Kershaw, Martinez, Freeman, Farmer

By Jeff Todd | February 24, 2020 at 9:17pm CDT

Let’s take a look at the latest notes from the National League:

Dodgers great Clayton Kershaw was something of a surprise offseason Driveline Baseball student, Pedro Moura of The Athletic reports (subscription link). It’s by now common to hear of hurlers spending time at the renowned clinic, but the most accomplished pitcher of his generation? Kershaw says he was mostly intrigued by learning “how to create the most efficiency with your body, and how to create the most power with your body.” President of baseball ops Andrew Friedman calls it a testament to the superstar lefty’s curiosity. No doubt a devastating postseason exit played a role. It’ll be interesting to see how the effort translates as Kershaw attempts to continue to evolve as he ages. (Long-time division rival Mason Saunders prefers a somewhat different offseason regimen.)
The Cardinals seem hopeful that righty Carlos Martinez can return to being a quality rotation piece in 2020. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the club still feels Martinez has exceptional talent. But it’s equally clear there’s still uncertainty. Manager Mike Shildt says Martinez is “out here giving himself a legitimate shot to compete” for a starting job, but notes that “what he does during the work and how he recovers between games that are going [to matter] as we start to ramp it up.” In other words, as Goold puts it, the organization believes Martinez must “embrace a more consistent between-start and pregame approach.” Whether Martinez can find his groove could make quite the difference in the Cards’ 2020 outlook, particularly with Miles Mikolas set to miss time.
We heard chatter about Freddie Freeman’s late-2019 elbow issues, but it seems the injury was a fair bit more debilitating than the Braves slugger let on. As Jeff Schultz of The Athletic reports (subscription link), Freeman dealt not only with pain, but with quite a lot of difficulties relating to his efforts to deal with the agonizing bone spurs in his joint. Schultz writes that the star first baseman relied heavily upon pain pills just to be able to play. But that came with other problems: “He had gotten into bad habits, cutting his swing short, because of the injury. The lack of sleep and accompanying stress made things worse.” The story speaks to Freeman’s determination, but it’s also a bit worrisome to read of his travails. Thankfully, it seems offseason surgery has eliminated the need for such drastic measures in 2020.
The Reds roster remains fun to watch even as Spring Training gets underway. The team placed some bat-first bets around the lineup but also installed Freddie Galvis at shortstop. He’s currently without a reserve complement, but the Reds are now looking to find one in a somewhat surprising place. As MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes, Kyle Farmer will be given a shot at adding reserve shortstop to his already lengthy list of responsibilities. The 29-year-old has plenty of amateur experience at the position and has spent a bit of time there as a pro, but he has primarily been tasked with playing behind the dish and at third base since being drafted. It seems the Reds are comfortable playing Farmer just about anywhere on the infield; he could be an interesting asset if he’s able to improve upon last year’s tepid offensive showing.

Health Notes: Suarez, Piscotty, Archer, Clase/Civale

By Jeff Todd | February 24, 2020 at 4:39pm CDT

Fortunately, there hasn’t been much in the way of negative health news to this point of Spring Training. Let’s check in on a few issues that have arisen …

Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez is feeling both excitement and some trepidation as he nears readiness to test his recently tweaked shoulder, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Indication remains that Suarez could conceivably be ready to roll on Opening Day. He says he’s getting his timing down even as he avoids throwing or swinging full-bore. But there are also some nerves as he prepares to ramp up. “Just a little bit because I know I have something there,” Suarez said when asked whether he’s nervous. “I don’t want to get hurt again. I have to be careful. We’ll see what happens.”
After a disappointing 2019 season, the last thing Athletics outfielder Stephen Piscotty wants to deal with is another injury issue. Right now, the hope is that his oblique/rib cage problem isn’t going to represent a major limitation, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. But Piscotty might be down for another week and it’s beginning to look like Opening Day readiness could be in doubt. That’d be a disappointment, of course, but it’s surely better than rushing back and ending up with a bigger problem.
Neck tightness kept Pirates righty Chris Archer from making a scheduled outing today, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. There hasn’t been a substantial update just yet, but there’s no reason to believe that this is more than a minor blip.
It’s a similar situation in Indians’ camp, where righties Emmanuel Clase and Aaron Civale have been limited. As MLB.com’s Mandy Bell tweets, the former is dealing with lat discomfort and the latter a sore groin. While Clase is going to slow his build-up to let things calm down, Civale is preparing to throw a sim game.

Red Sox, Padres Reportedly Still Negotiating Wil Myers Swap

By Jeff Todd | February 19, 2020 at 8:27am CDT

FEBRUARY 19: The Pads are indeed interested in both Lindor and Senzel, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports (subscription link). It’s even possible that the Myers talks with the Red Sox could morph into a three-team arrangement involving the Reds, Lin adds.

FEBRUARY 18: Spring Training is now upon us. Prior talks failed to result in a deal. And yet the Red Sox are still holding talks with the Padres about a potential deal that would send first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers to Boston, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Details are about as firm as you could ever hope to see them in a rumor of a potential swap. As before, the Friars want the Sox to take over about half of Myers’s salary (total guarantee of $61MM) over the next three years. Young talent would go to Boston to sweeten the pot. Players that have been discussed include Cal Quantrill, Luis Campusano, and Gabriel Arias, though it’s not clear which would be included and the Sox wouldn’t be able to obtain all of them just to take on half of what’s owed Myers.

That leaves out one major component of the as-yet-uncompleted trade talks: what would come back from the Red Sox? The original chatter between these teams involved Mookie Betts, who is no longer in the Boston stable. There’s no real indication just yet as to what current Red Sox might pique the interest of Padres GM A.J. Preller.

Yet more intriguing? The real goal, per Acee, is to swing a blockbuster for a high-level talent. He notes Nick Senzel of the Reds and Francisco Lindor of the Indians as longstanding targets, but it’s not really clear whether either is realistically available at this point. There aren’t many other conceivable candidates to be acquired who’d meet the description of a “difference-making” performer.

It’s fair to hold some skepticism here, especially as to the possible second prong of this scenario. Then again, Preller once pulled off a trade for Craig Kimbrel just before the start of a season, so it’s tough to rule out any mid-spring fireworks.

MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?

By Connor Byrne | February 18, 2020 at 7:00pm CDT

With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.

The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.

Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt’s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.

The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.

Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?

(Poll link for app users)

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