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AL Notes: Orioles, Jones, Indians, Tigers, Cowart

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Here’s a quick look around the American League:

  • In terms of name value, Adam Jones ranks among the majors’ most prominent free agents, thanks to a successful 11-year run with the Orioles. Jones is coming off a below-average season, though, and as a 33-year-old corner outfielder whose best days as a hitter and defender are gone, he hasn’t drawn much reported interest in free agency. But there’s at least a glimmer of a chance the longtime Baltimore fan favorite will end up back with the Orioles, Joe Trezza of MLB.com relays. Asked Saturday about the possibility of re-signing Jones, rookie general manager Mike Elias said, “I don’t think anything is a dead issue,” and added the Orioles are “monitoring everything.” At the same time, however, Elias suggested the rebuilding club may continue to avoid major league free agency, as it has done so far this winter. Should that prove to be the case, it seems likely to rule out a return for Jones, who figures to command a big league deal.
  • The Indians ran a franchise-high payroll in every season from 2016-18, each of which included an AL Central title, but that degree of spending “was unsustainable,” president Chris Antonetti said Saturday (per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com). “So we did need to reposition ourselves financially, which we were able to do with a series of moves earlier in the offseason and provide ourselves that necessary financial flexibility that we needed (for 2019 and beyond).” After opening last year with a payroll in the $135MM range, the Indians are projected to begin 2019 near $119MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Obviously, then, Cleveland hasn’t been aggressive in upgrading its roster this winter, though it’s still the favorite in its division. If the Indians find themselves in contention during the summer trade season, they should be in position to bolster their roster from outside, Antonetti noted. For now, though, any further offseason additions will be modestly priced, Hoynes writes.
  • The Tigers claimed infielder Kaleb Cowart from the Mariners on Thursday with the idea of using him as a two-way player, general manager Al Avila confirmed Saturday (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). “We felt there was a possibility of a two-way guy here,” Avila said. “We’re going to put him on the mound and see if he can recapture what our guys saw when he was drafted.” Cowart was a first-round pick of the Angels in 2010 as a position player, but he impressed Tigers scouts back then as a high school pitcher. “I always followed his career because of what I saw him do on the mound,” said assistant GM David Chadd, who was the Tigers’ director of scouting during Cowart’s draft year. At the time, Cowart offered a 92 to 95 mph fastball “with heavy life and a slider he threw for strikes,” in addition to a splitter, Chadd recounted. Now, given that Cowart has been a woeful hitter in the majors, has no minor league options remaining and is set to face plenty of competition for an infield spot, the 26-year-old’s best hope to make the Tigers may be to show he can be a viable MLB pitcher, as McCosky points out.

Agent: Nicholas Castellanos Prefers Trade Before Spring Training

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TODAY: Avila addressed the comments today, telling MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery (Twitter links) and other media that “That’s something where he felt like he needed to express that publicly. That’s fine.  [The comments] have no effect on the team or his performance or anything like that. He’ll come in in great shape. He’ll come in and compete and he’ll be one of our better hitters in the lineup and I expect him to have a great season.”  The general manager also reiterated that a trade “can’t be forced.”

THURSDAY: Nicholas Castellanos has seen his name bandied about the rumor circuit enough to know that the Tigers intend to trade him before this season’s non-waiver deadline, and his agent, David Meter, tells Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press that Castellanos would prefer to open Spring Training with a new team if it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll be moved eventually anyhow. However, Detroit general manager Al Avila said today (link via Will Burchfield of 97.1 FM The Ticket) that the market for Castellanos has been “frustrating” and plainly stated that, “…right now, really, I don’t have anything going on,” with regard to Castellanos talks.

Castellanos, 27 in March, is entering his final season of club control and has already agreed to a $9.95MM salary for the upcoming season. It’s no secret that the Tigers are well into a large-scale rebuild, and as a pending free agent, Castellanos stands out as an obvious trade piece. The two sides have reportedly discussed long-term arrangements in the past but failed to find a common ground.

There’s little denying that Castellanos is a high-quality bat that could deepen the lineup for any contending club. Over the past three seasons, he’s batted a combined .285/.336/.495 with 67 home runs, 107 doubles and 19 triples in 1790 trips to the plate. He’s cut back on his strikeout rate over the past two seasons as well and, in 2018, notched a career-best 7.2 percent walk rate that helped him post a career-high .354 on-base percentage. Castellanos isn’t the premier slugger that the Tigers had on their hands in J.D. Martinez, but he’s also younger and less expensive.

Like Martinez, however, the primary knock on Castellanos is his outfield defense. The converted third baseman shifted to right field full-time last season due to poor defense at his original position, but the results in the outfield weren’t any better. Castellanos graded out extremely poorly (-19 DRS, -12.9 UZR and a league-worst -24 Outs Above Average), which makes him a tough sell to a National League club. While it’s probably fair to expect that his glovework can improve with more reps at a still relatively new position, any team acquiring Castellanos to play in the field regularly would do so knowing that he’d be giving back a portion of the value provided by his excellent bat.

Fenech reports that the Tigers’ asking price for Castellanos has been one “top-level” prospect, adding that Detroit would need to feel it was receiving better value than a potential pick in the 2020 draft. That indicates that the organization considers Castellanos a potential qualifying offer candidate following the ’19 season.

Beyond Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings, the Tigers are in a tough spot with regard to trading Castellanos given that several plausible suitors have recently filled holes in other ways. The Dodgers reportedly struck a deal with A.J. Pollock just a few hours ago, and the Braves re-signed Nick Markakis earlier this week. The Rays, meanwhile, signed Avisail Garcia last week, and the division-rival Twins, who could’ve viewed Castellanos as a DH candidate, instead signed Nelson Cruz to a one-year deal with an option.

The Astros were also said to be in on Cruz and stand out as a speculative on-paper fit for Castellanos, and the Indians are known to be seeking some additional outfield help. Perhaps the Phillies could view Castellanos as something of a fallback option if their higher-profile pursuits don’t pan out, but Rhys Hoskins’ poor defense in left field was a catalyst for this offseason’s trade of Carlos Santana, and Castellanos’ struggles were similar, if not more substantial, to those of Hoskins. The Giants are reportedly in the mix for outfield help but don’t seem likely to pay a premium for a one-year rental (and also surely are wary of the defensive question marks). Similar sentiments could apply to the White Sox.

Of course, teams interested in Castellanos also figure to be reluctant to pay a premium when there are still so many corner-outfield options available in free agency. Marwin Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Denard Span and Derek Dietrich are just some of the many alternatives in free agency, and while Castellanos is a safe bet to outperform most of that bunch (excepting Marwin Gonzalez, perhaps), the cost of acquisition would be only money. In the case of all but Marwin, in fact, each of that bunch should cost less than Castellanos’ $9.95MM total commitment. The trade market also has alternatives in the form of Hunter Renfroe, Eric Thames and others.

It’s understandable that Castellanos would want to know his fate sooner rather than later, but at the same time, there’s a greater supply of players with his skill set (or close to it) than there is demand. An injury to a contending club’s designated hitter or corner outfielder in Spring Training could create a new suitor, however, so perhaps it wouldn’t be the worst thing for Castellanos if he’s still with the Tigers when camp opens.

Avila On Tigers’ Anticipated Payroll Timeline

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Tigers GM Al Avila suggested today that his eyes are still fixed well into the future, as Detroit’s WXYZ.com covers. That was largely safe to assume anyway, of course, but his discussion of the team’s financial planning is still important to note.

Avila did not just focus on the club’s expected arrival of new talent at the MLB level. As he put it, instead: “After 2020, our payroll will be in a lot better place for us to be aggressive going into 2021.” That focus on MLB spending is interesting for a few reasons.

For one thing, the difference between the 2020 and 2021 balance sheets isn’t hard to suss out. Both include $30MM for Miguel Cabrera; only the former comes with $25MM for Jordan Zimmermann and the final $6MM owed to Prince Fielder. Of course, those are the club’s only future commitments, so it still seems a bit curious to suggest that the long-term payroll trajectory is the driving force here.

Relatedly, it seems the organization has already largely decided that next winter won’t be an opportune time to push some cash onto the table. The Tigers have spent a decent bit of coin on one-year free agent deals since launching their rebuild, but mostly have targeted veteran gap-fillers who might turn into summer trade chips. It has long seemed interesting to wonder whether the club might consider putting its once-lofty payroll to use by chasing down some reasonably spendy players on the open market, even if it means taking a bit of risk. But it appears that will not be the case this winter or next.

So, when will the Tigers open things up? Avila didn’t make any promises, saying “we will have some money by 2021 to start going out there” but suggesting that hasn’t been pre-determined to be a breaking point. “Whether it be 2021 or 2022, at that point, we will be in a place, from a payroll perspective where I want to be at,” he said. Needless to say, it’s plenty understandable that the club has not yet decided how it’ll act at that point. And it’s also fair to avoid the setting of overly specific expectations. Still, the fuzzy future picture is no doubt less than inspiring for fans who may be looking ahead to two or three more clear rebuilding seasons.

While the Tigers have managed to draw down their spending over the past two years from its $200MM-ish heights in 2016-17, the club has never had a clear path to a quick rebuild. There was over $125MM on the books to open the 2018 season and there’ll be over $112MM to pay this year, due in no small part to ongoing obligations that are vestiges of the team’s last effort to contend. It has also taken a while to get the farm system producing again, too, as the club doesn’t seem to have come away from its post-contention veteran swaps with many significant assets and has only just begun reaping the rewards of top draft position. There are certainly some bright spots in the organization, especially with an intriguing mix of pitching talent building in the minors, but it seems the Detroit organization has no intentions of rushing the process.

Tigers Claim Kaleb Cowart

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The Tigers announced this afternoon that they’ve claimed infielder Kaleb Cowart off waivers from the Mariners, which now gives them a full 40-man roster. Cowart was designated for assignment earlier in the week.

The Mariners had planned to utilize Cowart in a hybrid infield/reliever role, and while the Detroit organization didn’t immediately reveal plans to do so, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets that Cowart will report to Spring Training as a two-way player.

Cowart, 26, was a first-round pick of the Angels back in 2010 but has not yet developed into a reliable big leaguer (hence the experimentation in using him as an infielder/pitcher). In parts of four big league seasons — all with the Halos — Cowart has appeared in exactly 162 games but managed a paltry .177/.241/.293 slash in 380 plate appearances. The right-handed-hitting Cowart has played all over the diamond but has seen the majority of his action at third base (6341 professional innings) and second base (915 innings). He’s a career .289/.361/.469 hitter in just over 1400 Triple-A plate appearances.

AL Notes: Davidson, O’s, Kelley, Gonzalez, Rays

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To no one’s surprise, the rebuilding Orioles have been extremely quiet this offseason, focusing more on front office, player development and analytics hires while also piecing together a coaching staff under new GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde. However, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Baltimore does have some interest in free-agent corner infielder/designated hitter Matt Davidson, who was non-tendered by the White Sox earlier this winter. Davidson, 28 in March, more than doubled his career walk rate last season, drawing a free pass at a 10.5 percent clip after walking in just 4.3 percent of his plate appearances in 2017. However, the increase in patience came with a bit of a dip in power, and strikeouts remained a severe issue (33.3 percent). In all, the slugger hit .228/.319/.419 with 20 big flies in 496 plate appearances. Davidson has 46 home runs in his past 939 PAs but is still a work in progress at the plate. He could potentially give Baltimore some pop off the bench, and his right-handed bat could help to shield Chris Davis from opposing lefties as the veteran attempts to rebound from a catastrophic 2018 season.

More from the American League…

  • Right-hander Shawn Kelley has been connected to a few teams in recent weeks, but it doesn’t sound as if he’ll be back with the Athletics in 2019. Agent Mike McCann tells Ben Ross of NBC Sports California that while his client has had contact with several teams this winter, Oakland isn’t one of them. Fancred’s Jon Heyman recently tweeted that Kelley has heard from 10 clubs this winter, so the righty should find his way onto a roster in the coming weeks. Kelley, who’ll turn 35 in April, posted a 2.94 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 30.2 percent grounder rate in 49 innings between the A’s and the Nats in ’18 — his third sub-3.00 ERA in the past four seasons.
  • Adrian Gonzalez worked out for the Tigers, Royals and Diamondbacks this past week, tweets J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. The five-time All-Star, who is hoping to continue his career in 2019, batted .237/.299/.373 with six homers in 187 plate appearances with the Mets last season before being cut loose. Detroit would seem to have the most playing time available for the soon-to-be 37-year-old Gonzalez, though he could certainly serve as a veteran bat off the bench in either Kansas City or Arizona. The two American League teams are, of course, a better on-paper fit given that Gonzalez could spend some time at DH in either spot.
  • Yandy Diaz projects as the likely starter for the Rays at first base following the DFA of C.J. Cron and the trade of Jake Bauers (which brought Diaz to Tampa Bay), writes Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Many fans and pundits alike raised an eyebrow when the Rays shipped out Bauers, long one of the organization’s top prospects, to acquire the 27-year-old Diaz, who has yet to prove himself at the game’s top level. Vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom spoke of Diaz’s upside with the bat, however, specifically touting Diaz’s ability to hit the ball with authority — a point that has long been written about as Diaz has recorded highly intriguing exit velocity numbers. Toribio notes that the Rays feel that, given Diaz’s penchant for hitting the ball hard, they can coax more power production out of him. Ji-Man Choi figures to serve as the primary designated hitter for the Rays and the top alternative to Diaz at first base, Toribio adds.

Tigers Sign Gordon Beckham

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In announcing their non-roster invitees, the Tigers revealed that they have signed veteran infielder Gordon Beckham. Clearly, he’ll be on hand in camp this spring. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Beckham’s contract comes with a $700K base salary if he makes the big league roster.

Beckham will be looking to win a job as a bench piece in Detroit. While the club has little reason to utilize veterans in a manner that would block younger talent, it surely also wants to install some respected players and maintain a certain standard during another transition year. If he can’t crack the roster, Beckham would potentially represent worthwhile depth at Triple-A.

The opportunities have been sporadic of late for Beckham, who was once a regular with the White Sox. Still, he has appeared in every one of the past ten MLB seasons, compiling a cumulative .239/.302/.366 slash in 3542 plate appearances. Beckham, who’s an option at second and third base, did post a strong .302/.400/.458 batting line last year at Triple-A while drawing more walks (57) than strikeouts (52) in his 425 trips to the plate.

Central Notes: Twins, Castellanos, Bucs, Cards/Cubs

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The Twins’ reported agreement with left-hander Martin Perez won’t preclude them from adding further arms this offseason, writes Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “I think there are still some guys on the board that are interesting, certainly that could fit, so we remain engaged with those,” chief baseball officer Derek Falvey tells Helfand. Falvey wouldn’t rule out adding another pitcher on a big league deal, acknowledging that the team has some payroll flexibility — especially relative to the previous levels at which they’ve spent.

Somewhat surprisingly, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that the Twins are indeed viewing Perez as a starting pitcher. Perez is coming off a season in which he ranked in the bottom one percent of strikeout rate and opponents’ weighted on-base average among big league pitchers in 2018. Perez is still just 27, was once a well-regarded prospect and is a known commodity for GM Thad Levine (formerly an assistant GM in Texas), but the Twins weren’t short on options for the fifth spot in the rotation. Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Duffey, Kohl Stewart and Zack Littell were all already on the 40-man roster, but the Twins are seemingly more comfortable with Perez as a back-of-the-rotation option early in 2019 than any of that bunch.

More from the central divisions:

  • If there’s a key remaining question for the Tigers this winter, it probably relates to the future of Nicholas Castellanos. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press takes stock of the situation. Critically, as he notes, it’s largely unclear just how much interest there is among rival clubs. Castellanos is still just 26 years of age and out-hit most remaining free agents in 2018, but he’s also still considered a defensive liability and is earning a hefty $9.95MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Whether a significant offer will materialize remains to be seen; as Fenech suggests, though, it’s hard to fault the Tigers for holding on to a reasonably steep asking price to this point.
  • Some potentially eyebrow-raising chatter arose yesterday regarding the Pirates, but Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that there’s nothing of substance. There’s no possibility of a deal between the Bucs and Dodgers regarding outfielder Starling Marte, says Heyman, shooting down speculation that had arisen. That, at least, had some facial plausibility since the L.A. organization would no doubt be interested in such a pursuit. Heyman also shoots down a much more fanciful idea that evidently arose involving a certain superstar free agent.
  • Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cardinals and Cubs seem to be primed for a feud in the coming campaign. Both teams are dead set on getting back to the top of the division. And now things are getting personal. As Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch deftly explains, Chicago star Kris Bryant’s casual and mostly harmless jab at the city of St. Louis (“boring”) ignited a “scorched-earth response” from stalwart St. Louis backstop Yadier Molina. It might seem like much ado about nothing; it may turn out to be just that. But Molina promises “it will carry” into the season. And as Frederickson explains, the matter touches at something deeper in the psyches of Molina, the Cards, and even the city they play in.

Tigers To Sign Hector Sanchez

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The Tigers have agreed to a minor-league deal with backstop Hector Sanchez, according to Venezuelan journalist Ignacio Serrano (Twitter link). The contract comes with an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Now 29 years of age, Sanchez had appeared in seven consecutive major-league campaigns before failing to earn a nod last year. Though he showed early promise, he owns only a .238/.273/.367 batting line at the game’s highest level. It’s fair to note that he’s a .267/.330/.438 hitter through eight hundred career plate appearances at Triple-A.

Sanchez had returned last year to the Giants, his original professional organization and the place he broke into the majors. Things didn’t work out, however, and he was given his release just two months into the season. Now, Sanchez will try to get back on track with a Detroit organization that has a somewhat unsettled catching situation after dropping James McCann earlier in the winter. John Hicks is the most established player on the roster, while newcomer Grayson Greiner is seen as a possible long-term piece. Sanchez joins veteran Bobby Wilson as non-roster competition and veteran depth.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

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Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

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Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).
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