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Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #6: The Cubs’ Fire Sale

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8 and No. 7. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…

The 2021 season marked a turning point in Cubs franchise history. Half a decade had elapsed since the team’s curse-breaking 2016 World Series run. The “dynasty” chatter that followed that seven-game victory over Cleveland never really manifested into reality. Chicago was a perennial contender, but that vaunted Cubs core never reached the World Series again and only won one game beyond the National League Division Series before the group was suddenly nearing the end of its time together.

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks was a sensational group of talent around which to build, but Hendricks was the only one of the bunch to put pen to paper on an extension. The group continued inching closer to free agency, and as Lester and Arrieta declined in their latter years in Chicago, some of the shine wore off. The Cubs were a good team, but year after year, the season ended with now-former president of baseball operations Theo Epstein making similar comments about how the “offense broke” or something else went wrong.

Following a 2020 season that saw the Cubs swept out of a three-game Wild Card series against the Marlins in the expanded playoff format, Epstein stepped down from his role as president and turned baseball autonomy over to Jed Hoyer. It was baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche, as Hoyer faced a series of unenviable decisions, beginning with Schwarber. Fresh off a .188/.308/.393 showing in 244 plate appearances in 2020, Schwarber was non-tendered rather than offered a raise heading into his final year of arbitration. Not four weeks later, Yu Darvish was traded to the Padres in a salary-motivated deal that has to date produced just one prospect of any note (Owen Caissie).

Decision time was only just beginning for Hoyer and his staff. The Cubs would need to determine how to proceed with the trio of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez, each of whom were slated to become free agents following the 2021 season. Prior extension talks had never resulted in a deal — though Baez was reportedly quite close to signing before baseball grinded to a halt with the Covid pandemic in 2020. Chicago made one final effort to extend Rizzo that spring, but he spurned their five-year, $70MM offer (and has since banked three years and $56MM in guaranteed money with the Yankees).

The Cubs could’ve traded any of the bunch that offseason, and Bryant’s name in particular echoed throughout the rumor mill as much as it ever had. Ultimately, all three stayed put, and thus the ensuing narratives that would dominate the 2021 Cubs season were set into motion. Would any of Bryant, Baez or Rizzo stay? Was the core finally breaking up? Was this the team’s last chance?

The lackluster offseason headlined by trading the prior season’s Cy Young runner-up should’ve answered that final question on its own, but the Cubs surprised plenty of onlookers by not only fielding a competitive team but vying for first place in the division for much of the first few months. As late into the season as June 24, the Cubs were eight games over .500 and in a first-place tie for the NL Central lead with the Brewers.

A subsequent 11-game losing streak — the first of two 11-game losing streaks for that year’s Cubs — removed all doubt, however. By July 8, the Cubs were below .500, and the surging Brewers had remained hot. They held a 9.5-game lead over the second-place Reds, with Chicago and St. Louis tied for third in the division. The fire sale was coming, and virtually everyone knew it.

Rizzo was the first to go. A July 29 deal sent him to the Yankees in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcantara and 24-year-old righty Alexander Vizcaino. A day later, Baez was following Rizzo out of Wrigley. Traded alongside right-hander Trevor Williams, Baez went to the Mets in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. For the next 24 hours, there were serious questions about whether a trade for Bryant would ultimately come together, but in a buzzer-beating deal, Bryant was shipped to the Giants in exchange for 21-year-old outfielder Alexander Canario and 24-year-old righty Caleb Kilian.

You can perhaps call the inclusion of Baez cheating a little bit for the purposes of this series, because Williams’ inclusion meant it wasn’t *technically* a rental. The Mets acquired two months of control over Baez and a year-plus of Williams in this swap. That extra year of control over Williams surely factored into the decision to part with Crow-Armstrong to an extent, but this was a trade about acquiring Baez first and foremost. Baez caught fire down the stretch for the Mets, too, posting a huge .299/.371/.515 slash in 186 plate appearances. The Mets still missed postseason, however, and the trade surely stings when looking at what’s become of the player they surrendered.

Fast forward less than two years, and “PCA” is regarded as one of the sport’s top outfield prospects. He’s ranked within the top-30 overall prospects in the sport on the most recent lists Baseball America, MLB.com, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has the “low” ranking on Crow-Armstrong… at No. 39 in the game. Regarded as plus-plus defender in center field with plus speed, Crow-Armstrong has opened the season with a .278/.345/.513 showing in Double-A (131 wRC+). He’s knocked eight homers, seven doubles and three of triples while going 13-for-17 in steals.

Obviously, the Cubs haven’t yet gotten any big league value out of Crow-Armstrong, but it’s rare for a team to acquire a prospect in exchange for a rental and see him almost immediately ascend to the point that he’s regarded as one of the top 15 to 30 prospects in all of baseball. If the Cubs wanted to do so — they surely don’t, to be clear — they could use Crow-Armstrong as a headline piece to acquire just about any controllable veteran who hits the market this summer or next offseason. The likelier path for PCA is that he’ll be given every opportunity to become a franchise center fielder for a still-retooling Cubs club.

There’s no nitpicking with the other two swaps in this three-for-one entry. Rizzo and Bryant were shipped out as two-month mercenaries in exchange for a quartet of prospects, although Rizzo took to the Bronx quite nicely and is now locked in as a Yankee through the 2024 season. There was plenty for the Yankees to like, as Rizzo hit .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+) down the stretch, swatting eight homers and seven postseason doubles before tacking on another dinger in that year’s Wild Card loss to the Red Sox. In parts of three seasons as a Yankee, Rizzo is a .245/.344/.468 hitter with 51 home runs.

I doubt the Yankees regret making this swap, but it’s worked out nicely for the Cubs as well. Alcantara, now 20 years old, isn’t as highly regarded as Crow-Armstrong, but he entered the season ranked No. 91 on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings. He’s dropped off that list after a slow start in High-A (.250/.281/.389), but he still sits at No. 75 at FanGraphs and is generally a very well regarded prospect.

It’s worth bearing in mind that those pedestrian High-A numbers have been posted against competition that is, on average, nearly two and a half years older than Alcantara. The towering 6’6″ toolbox is also just a season removed from a much heartier .273/.360/.451 showing in Class-A, where he was nearly two years younger than the league’s average player. He’s a ways off, but like Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara has significantly elevated his stock since that 2021 trade. If the Cubs were so inclined, he too could be a significant piece in any potential deadline trade for controllable big league help. That’s not likely to happen — granted, it’s a bit more plausible with Alcantara than with Crow-Armstrong — but Alcantara has become a reasonably high-profile prospect.

That’s not the case with the now-26-year-old Vizcaino, though the circumstances surrounding his departure from baseball remain unclear. The Cubs placed Vizcaino on the restricted list in 2022  after he failed to report to spring training. He spent the entire year on the restricted list. The Cubs non-tendered him last offseason, and he didn’t sign with another team. Details surrounding Vizcaino’s abrupt departure from the game are basically nonexistent. The obvious hope is that he’s happy and healthy wherever he’s at, but it’s a disappointing outcome for the Cubs.

As for the third and final chapter of this deadline trio, Bryant proved an important pickup for the Giants. True, San Francisco would’ve made the postseason regardless, evidenced by their MLB-best 107 wins that season, but they edged out the division-rival Dodgers for that NL West crown by a margin of just one game. Bryant’s solid .262/.344/.444 slash may not have been in line with his peak form, but he contributed a meaningful presence in the Giants’ lineup down the stretch. They’d go on to fall to those same Dodgers in the National League Division Series, but not through any fault of Bryant’s. He delivered an 8-for-17 performance in the NLDS, adding a homer and a walk with only three strikeouts in 18 total trips to the plate.

Unlike with the other two trades, Cubs fans have at least gotten a look at one element of this return, although the now-26-year-old Kilian’s big league work to date hasn’t been pretty. The 6’4″ righty is still widely regarded as one of the organization’s best pitching prospects, but he’s been tagged for 20 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings through a pair of very limited auditions. He’s pitched 148 Triple-A innings as a starter over the past two seasons, logging a 4.32 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against an 11.1% walk rate.

Command wasn’t an issue for him prior to reaching Triple-A, but he struggled with walks last year. It’s encouraging that he’s walked just 6.8% of his opponents over his past seven Triple-A starts, pitching to a 3.09 ERA along the way, but Kilian has also plunked six hitters in that time so he’s not out of the woods with his shaky location just yet. He’s in the mix to come up and make some starts this year still, and depending on how he fares, Kilian could be a candidate for a rotation spot either later this season or in 2024.

As for Canario, he finished second among all minor leaguers with 37 home runs in 2022 and hit .252/.343/.556 across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He added 23 steals (in 26 tries) and walked at an 11% clip, though his 27.5% strikeout rate was more concerning. Baseball America calls him a potential low-average slugger with plenty of walks, above-average speed and above-average defense in right field. He hasn’t yet gotten a chance to build on last year’s breakout, as he dislocated his shoulder while playing in the Dominican Winter League.

We’re just shy of two years removed from the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, and while it’s still early to grade the overall strength of their return, things are looking promising. To trade three rental players and come away with a pair of top-100 prospects — including one who’s widely ranked in the top 25 — as well as a near-MLB starting pitcher and a strikeout-prone but prodigious slugging outfielder with power, speed and defensive upside is objectively impressive.

On the one hand, it’s a testament to the caliber of the players the Cubs were trading, but not all trades of star players result in this type of return. The Orioles have still barely gotten anything from the Manny Machado trade nearly five years after its completion. The Rangers’ trade of Darvish to the Dodgers netted them one immediate top prospect, but two years after the deal that prospect (Willie Calhoun) was already looking like a questionable big leaguer.

The tail-end of the development phase for the prospects acquired here — particularly Crow-Armstrong — will define this series of trades. But four of the five prospects acquired in this slate of trades have enhanced their stock since joining the Cubs, who now have a handful of near-MLB-ready talent and/or trade chips to show for parting with a trio of popular veterans. The 2021 trade deadline was a dark few days for Cubs fans, but there’s a good chance it’ll wind up leading to some brighter times ahead.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #7: Tigers Land A Closer For Castellanos

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’re on to #7 in our series, looking back four years to a last-minute 2019 swap.

The Cubs entered deadline season nearing the end of their contention window. Chicago had snapped their World Series drought three years prior. While the Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez, Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks core never returned to the Fall Classic and fell short of dynastic expectations some observers had heaped on them, Chicago remained a good club. They went to the NL Championship Series in 2017 and made the playoffs again the following season, losing to the Rockies in the Wild Card game.

Nicholas Castellanos

Chicago’s then-Theo Epstein led front office set out to bolster the roster further in hopes of securing a fifth straight playoff berth. They sat at 56-50 heading into play on July 31, a game back of the Cardinals in the NL Central. The Cubs looked to inject some life into an offense that had ranked 14th in run scoring to that point. The addition: corner outfielder Nick Castellanos in a swap sending prospects Alex Lange and Paul Richan to the Tigers.

Castellanos was amidst a relative down season at the time of the trade. While he’d hit .298/.354/.500 the prior year, the right-handed hitter was carrying a .273/.328/.462 line midway through a ’19 campaign that had seen a home run explosion around the league. The Cubs looked past that comparatively slow start.

In return, they dealt a pair of fairly recent high draft choices to a Detroit club that was midway through a full-scale rebuild and en route to one of the worst seasons in history (47-114). Lange had been the 30th overall pick in 2017 after helping LSU to the College World Series finals. Richan was a second round draftee the next season out of the University of San Diego. Lange had posted middling minor league numbers up through Double-A; Richan had a solid but not overwhelming High-A performance.

It was a bit of a buy-low situation for the Detroit front office. Both pitchers had seen their prospect stock hit a down ebb. The Tigers immediately moved Lange from the rotation to the bullpen, hoping that a simplified repertoire and shorter stints would mitigate longstanding questions about his delivery and command. Detroit surely believed he’d be a viable MLB reliever but probably didn’t anticipate this level of dominance.

Lange debuted in 2021 and posted a 4.04 ERA in 35 2/3 middle relief innings. He took his game to a new level last season, significantly upping his swing-and-miss to force his way into higher-leverage spots. Lange tossed 63 1/3 frames of 3.41 ERA ball while punching out more than 30% of opposing hitters. An absurd 19% swinging strike rate — bettered only by Edwin Díaz and Andrés Muñoz among qualified relievers — suggested the potential to push the strikeouts even further. Paired with an absurd 55.6% ground-ball rate, Lange demonstrated an ultra-rare combination of whiffs and unthreatening contact. He was one of just five relievers (min. 30 innings) to record both a strikeout rate above 30% and a grounder percentage north of 55%.

In his second full MLB campaign, Lange has indeed upped the strikeouts. Entering play Thursday, he’s punched out 35% of batters faced. Lange carries a 2.55 ERA in 24 2/3 innings and been entrusted with the ninth inning by manager A.J. Hinch. The 27-year-old has saved 10 of 11 opportunities. He was blown up for four runs in a third of an inning by the White Sox in his most recent appearance, but Lange has made 17 scoreless outings and recorded multiple strikeouts on 14 occasions.

Lange’s control still comes and goes. He’s walked at least 9.9% of opponents in all three of his big league campaigns. That includes a lofty 13% walk percentage thus far in 2023. Yet he’s been so dominant at his best that he’s able to navigate the free passes. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, opponents are hitting .190/.298/.292 in 371 trips to the plate.

The Tigers didn’t get anything out of Richan. He topped out at Double-A and was released last September. Hitting to the extent they have on Lange has more than made up for Richan stalling out from Detroit’s perspective. They landed a high-leverage reliever who has shown impact talent. If Lange dials in his control, he could be one of the three to five best late-game arms in the sport. Even if he’s “only” an All-Star caliber hurler, that’s a great pull for a player who was two months from free agency. The Tigers forfeited the chance to recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer for Castellanos’ departure but Lange has been far better than the expected value of a choice landing at the end of the first round.

Lange is under club control through the 2027 campaign. He entered this season with one year and 112 days of service time, so he’ll head into next offseason at 2.112 service years. That could leave him just shy of the cutoff for early arbitration as a Super Two player, which has landed between 2.115 and 2.134 years over the past five winters. Even if Lange does get to arbitration next season, four years of arb control for a pitcher of his caliber is a massive asset.

The Tigers’ rebuild has stagnated, leading to a front office shakeup last summer. While Detroit is only 3 1/2 games out in the AL Central right now, they’re seven games under .500 and have been outscored by 70 runs. This isn’t a likely playoff contender even in the sport’s worst division. As a result, other clubs have called on Detroit’s relievers (Lange included) about a potential deadline deal.

With their extended control window, there’s no pressure on president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his staff to pull the trigger. They dealt shorter-term relievers like Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto over the winter but moving Lange would be at another level of boldness. The more probable outcome is that Lange will stick around into next season, hopefully anchoring a bullpen for the next competitive Detroit club.

From the Cubs’ perspective, the trade had mixed results. Had they anticipated Lange being this good, they wouldn’t have made him available for a rental. Castellanos validated their optimism, though, rebounding from his middle-of-the-road start with a torrid stretch. He slashed .321/.356/.646 with an absurd 16 home runs in 51 games. Castellanos earned a $64MM guarantee from the Reds the ensuing offseason. His Cincinnati deal afforded a post-2021 opt-out clause which he leveraged into a $100MM contract from Philadelphia on the heels of another excellent season.

Even with Castellanos hitting at a top 20 level down the stretch, the Cubs never kicked into another gear. They’d go 27-28 from August onward. Chicago ended third in the division and five games behind the Brewers for the last postseason spot. They returned to the playoffs during the abbreviated 2020 campaign but were swept in the first round by the Marlins. Chicago hasn’t gotten back to the postseason since and is going on six years dating back to their last playoff win.

Previous installments: honorable mentions, Drew Smith/Lucas Duda (#10), Steve Pearce/Santiago Espinal (#9), Lane Thomas/Jon Lester (#8)

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Elly De La Cruz, Manoah’s Demotion and Surgery for DeGrom

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Episode 10 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • If Kevin Kiermaier can stay healthy and remain productive, what kind of contract is he looking at in free agency? (22:20)
  • Could Corbin Burnes realistically be traded by the deadline? If so, what teams would likely make a push for him? (26:50)
  • What could the Cubs do with Marcus Stroman? (30:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Wide-Open NL Wild Card Race, Returning Pitchers and Cast-Off Veterans – listen here
  • The Mets are turning things around, and how serious are the Mariners, Marlins and Diamondbacks? – listen here
  • The Cardinals’ U-Turn on Willson Contreras, Mitch Keller’s breakout, and the state of the Padres – listen here

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions

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The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.

June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.

Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.

As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.

A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.

While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.

Let’s begin!

Honorable Mentions

Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)

Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.

Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.

Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.

Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)

Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.

Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.

As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.

Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)

The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.

Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.

Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).

2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch

Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)

Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.

The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.

That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)

Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.

Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto’s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins’ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper’s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.

Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)

This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.

At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.

Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)

Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).

Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.

Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.

It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).

Cubs Place Justin Steele On 15-Day Injured List

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The Cubs placed left-hander Justin Steele on the 15-day injured list due to a left forearm strain.  The placement is retroactive to June 1.  Taking Steele’s spot on the active roster is catcher Miguel Amaya, who was called up from Triple-A Iowa.

As detailed in reports earlier today, the MRI on Steele’s forearm revealed no structural damage, leaving even some possibility that Steele might miss a start but avoid doing on the injured list altogether.  However, it appears as though the Cubs have decided to err on the side of caution, which is understandable given the larger-scale injuries that can be associated with forearm problems.  For now, it would seem possible that Steele might be able to return after the minimum 15 days, making this IL stint perhaps just a blip in what has been an otherwise excellent season for the 27-year-old southpaw.

Steele has a 2.65 ERA over 12 starts and 68 innings, along with a strong 5.9% walk rate and an elite 28% hard-hit ball rate.  Steele’s 21.4% strikeout rate is well below average, but his ability to both keep the ball on the ground (48.4% grounder rate) and induce soft contact has been a winning recipe for success, and even a step up from his quality numbers in 2021-22.

The forearm problem arose during Steele’s start on Wednesday, as he was perfect over three innings against the Pirates before being removed from the game.  Hayden Wesneski is slated to take Steele’s spot in the rotation, and Wesneski is scheduled to start on Tuesday against the Angels.

Amaya made his MLB debut by playing in six games for Chicago earlier this season, and the former top-100 prospect will now get another look at the big league level.  With Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart taking up the catching duties, it remains to be seen how much playing time Amaya might get during this latest stint in the Show, and it might end up being a relatively brief stay until the Cubs feel the need to call up a fresh arm.

NL Central Notes: Steele, Votto, Adames, Miley, Velasquez

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Cubs fans received some positive news regarding left-hander Justin Steele yesterday. The 27-year-old hurler was pulled from his start on Wednesday after just three innings of work due to forearm tightess and underwent an MRI on Thursday to determine the severity of the issue. As noted by MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian on Twitter, Steele described the result of the MRI as “good news” and said that the plan is for him to play catch today before determining the path forward. With that being said, WSCR-AM’s Bruce Levine notes that a source considers Steele “likely” to miss his next start, which he would otherwise be on schedule take Tuesday against the Angels.

After securing a spot in the starting rotation to open the 2022 campaign, Steele ended last season looking like an above-average, mid-rotation or better starter over 24 starts, posting a 3.18 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 24.6% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, and 51.2% groundball rate in 119 innings of work. Only budding Rays ace Shane McClanahan managed to post a higher strikeout rate while maintaining a groundball rate over 50% last year. What’s more, Steele has managed to build on his strong first season as a regular starter for the this season, with a 2.65 ERA that’s only bested by rotation-mate Marcus Stroman and Braves youngster Bryce Elder in the National League.

The news that his forearm strain isn’t anything serious and he’s unlikely to miss significant time is surely a relief for a Cubs team that has relied on the young lefty to carry their pitching staff alongside Stroman, with the duo representing 18 of the club’s 25 quality starts in 2023.  With that said, it seems likely that right-hander Hayden Wesneski will fill in for Steele in the event the injured left-hander does miss a start. Wesneski struggled to a 4.81 ERA and 5.65 FIP this season after earning the fifth spot in the club’s rotation with a dominant performance in spring training, leaving the Cubs to remove him from the rotation when Kyle Hendricks returned to the mound from injury.

More from around the NL Central:

  • According to MLB.com, Brewers shortstop Willy Adames has resumed baseball activities for the first time since he was struck by a foul ball in last week’s game against the Giants, landing him on the 7-day concussion IL. Adames is currently working out with the the club’s High-A affiliate rather than joining the club on their flight to Cincinnati in order to avoid the wear-and-tear of air travel, according to manager Craig Counsell. The club plans to decide whether or not Adames, who has struggled to a 84 wRC+ in 51 games this season, needs a minor league rehab assignment before he can return to big league action later this weekend. In the meantime, they figure to continue going with a combination of Brice Turang, Owen Miller, and Andruw Monasterio up the middle.
  • Sticking with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy notes that left-hander Wade Miley is making good progress on his rehab from a posterior serratus strain. While he was initially expected to be shelved for six to eight weeks, McCalvy reports that if Miley is able to avoid any setbacks he’s currently set to return from the IL after just four weeks after throwing a bullpen session on Thursday. Miley posted eight solid starts for the Brewers prior to his injury as the veteran lefty threw 41 2/3 innings of 3.67 ERA baseball.
  • Reds first baseman and future Hall of Famer Joey Votto is set to begin a rehab assignment with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville today, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Votto has been on the shelf since he underwent surgery on his rotator cuff back in August, and posted a wRC+ of just 92 in 91 games prior to the surgery. Still, he figures to share first base and DH duties with Spencer Steer upon his return to big league action.
  • Right-hander Vince Velasquez was activated from the injured list and returned to the Pirates’ rotation just last week, but immediately felt discomfort in his right elbow and returned to the injured list. According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, his current IL-stay will not be a short one, as the veteran is expected to be transferred to the 60-day IL in the near future. Velasquez had pitched well for the Pirates across eight starts this season prior to his injury, with a 3.86 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. Velasquez’s return to the IL leaves the club with a rotation of Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Johan Oviedo, Rich Hill, and Luis Ortiz.

Mets Acquire Vinny Nittoli

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4:29pm: Both teams announced the trade. Chicago receives cash in return.

7:40am: The Mets have acquired right-handed reliever Vinny Nittoli in a trade with the Cubs, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The return headed back to the Cubs is currently unknown, though it’s presumably relatively minor. The deal comes on the heels of Nittoli exercising an opt-out clause in his minor league deal with the Cubs yesterday. DiComo notes that Nittoli will be placed on New York’s 40-man roster, though the club could opt to option him to the minors once added. The Mets have two open spots on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will be necessary to add Nittoli.

Nittoli, 32, has just three innings of experience in the big leagues. In his MLB debut for the Mariners in 2021, Nittoli allowed two runs on two walks and a home run in one inning while striking out one. He would return to the majors in 2022, posting two scoreless innings for the Phillies across two appearances.

Outside of his major league appearances, Nittoli is a well-traveled journeyman, with time spent in the Mariners, Phillies, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Twins, Yankees, and Cubs organizations in addition to the independent American Association and the Mexican Pacific Winter League. In 657 1/3 innings across all professional levels, Nittoli has posted a solid 3.77 ERA.

Nittoli’s results have been far less inspiring at the Triple-A level, where he has posted a 4.92 ERA in 131 2/3 innings of work. That said, his numbers have improved for the Cubs this season, as the right-hander has posted a solid 3.48 ERA in 20 2/3 innings with a 24.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate.

Those numbers clearly intrigued the Mets, who made the decision to add him to the 40-man roster as a depth option for the club’s bullpen, which has seen mixed results this season outside of a phenomenal start from closer David Robertson. Should Nittoli be added to the club’s active roster, the right-hander figures to handle the middle innings alongside the likes of Tommy Hunter, Jeff Brigham, and Dominic Leone.

Tyler Duffey Exercises Opt-Out In Cubs Deal

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Veteran reliever Tyler Duffey has triggered an opt-out in his minor league contract with the Cubs, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’s the second Cubs reliever in Triple-A to exercise a June 1 opt-out date, as Vinny Nittoli did the same this morning as well. As is the case with Nittoli, the Cubs will have 48 hours to select Duffey’s contract or release him, so he’s not technically a free agent just yet but could very likely return to the market in a couple days.

The 32-year-old Duffey has 475 innings of big league experience, all coming with the Twins, who selected him out of Rice University in the fifth round of the 2012 draft. Duffey impressed as a starter in his 2015 big league debut but struggled in that role for the next few seasons before ultimately shifting to the bullpen, where he spent a couple years as a strong setup option in Minnesota. From 2019-20, the righty pitched to a brilliant 2.31 ERA with a 34.2% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate, piling up 27 holds along the way.

Duffey posted quality bottom-line results in 2021 as well, recording a 3.18 ERA and a career-best 22 holds in 62 1/3 innings. However, his strikeout and walk rates dipped to 24% and 11%, respectively, and his fastball sat at 92.6 mph — a drop from its 94 mph peak. The wheels came off in 2022, when Duffey was rocked for a 4.91 ERA in 44 frames, with a particularly tough 1.64 HR/9 mark. The Twins designated him for assignment and released him.

Duffey inked subsequent minor league deals with both the Rangers and Yankees, but neither called him up from Triple-A before season’s end, at which point he became a minor league free agent and eventually signed with Chicago. Thus far in 2023, Duffey has pitched 22 1/3 innings with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa. In that time, he’s recorded a 4.43 ERA with an above-average 26.1% strikeout rate but a bloated 15.2% walk rate.

Outside of excellent performances from Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr., the Cubs’ bullpen has struggled considerably in 2023. Cubs relievers have baseball’s fourth-worst ERA at 4.60, and their primary offseason additions — Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer — have both fallen well short of expectations. Duffey would represent a veteran alternative or complement to the current group, but the Cubs may not want to open a 40-man roster spot to take a look. If that indeed proves the case, Duffey will hit the market and look to latch on with another club seeking bullpen depth.

Vinny Nittoli Exercises Opt-Out In Cubs Deal

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Right-hander Vinny Nittoli has opted out of his minor league deal with the Cubs, tweets Robert Murray of FanSided. He’s not technically a free agent just yet — MLBTR has confirmed that the Cubs have 48 hours to select his contract or grant him his release — but he could formally be back on the market as soon as this weekend.

Nittoli, 32, has just three innings of big league experience — coming between the Mariners and Phillies in 2021-22 — but has been sharp with the Cubs’ Iowa affiliate so far in 2023. Through his first 20 2/3 frames on the season, the journeyman right-hander has notched a 3.48 ERA with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates of 24.4% and 7.8%, respectively. He’s allowed just two home runs on the season (0.87 HR/9). Nittoli struggled in his first two seasons of Triple-A ball, but this is his second strong showing at the level; in 52 innings there last season between the Yankees, Phillies and Blue Jays, he posted a combined 3.81 ERA with a 30.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate.

The Chicago bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in the Majors at 4.60. About 18 points of that ERA stem from utilityman Miles Mastrobuoni taking a beating in mop-up duty, but the bullpen as a whole has generally struggled. The Cubs have received strong performances from minor league signee Mark Leiter Jr. and former top prospect Adbert Alzolay, but no other reliever on their roster has pitched at least 10 innings and recorded an ERA south of the recently optioned Keegan Thompson’s 4.22. Offseason signings of Brad Boxberger (5.52 ERA in 14 2/3 innings) and Michael Fulmer (7.36 ERA in 22 frames) haven’t paid off. Fielding-independent metrics such as FIP (4.05) and SIERA (3.86) feel Cubs relievers are more skilled than their baseline run-prevention numbers would otherwise suggest, but the results haven’t been there yet.

All that said, there’s still a good chance Nittoli will wind up a free agent within the next couple days. Assuming that’s indeed the case, he’ll be able to shop his solid start to the season around to other clubs in need of bullpen help. Teams are always on the hunt for bullpen arms this time of year, so there ought to be several clubs with interest in taking a look at a new arm in that scenario.

June 1 is a popular day for opt-out provisions in contracts, including a collectively bargained opt-out date for Article XX(B) free agents (i.e. free agents with six-plus years of service time who finished the preceding season on a Major League roster/injured list but signed a minor league contract). MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at nine veteran players with known opt-out opportunities last night, and as Nittoli shows, there are surely quite a few more around the league who’ll be making decisions on such clauses today.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL Central

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

This series kicked off with the NL West last night. Today, we move to the Central.

Chicago Cubs

Hendricks has only made two starts this season. The sinkerballer was diagnosed with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last August. That required a lengthy rehab process that lingered into this month. The former ERA champion hadn’t been nearly as effective in the two years leading up to the shoulder issues as he was over his first seven seasons. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a 4.75 ERA over 274 2/3 innings. Between that back-of-the-rotation production and the injury, the Cubs seem likely to reallocate the $14.5MM difference between the option price and the buyout.

Gomes signed a two-year guarantee with Chicago going into the 2022 campaign. Initially tabbed to pair with Willson Contreras, he’s gotten the majority of the playing time alongside Tucker Barnhart this season. Gomes struggled to a .235/.260/.365 line in 86 games during his first season on the North Side. He’s playing better this season, hitting six home runs with a .273/.297/.445 batting line over his first 118 trips to the plate. The $5MM decision is a reasonable price for a veteran backstop hitting at that level, even if Gomes is more of a timeshare player than a true regular at this stage of his career.

Boxberger signed with Chicago after being bought out by the Brewers. The righty has had a tough first couple months. He allowed nine runs with a 13:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 14 2/3 innings. He hit the 15-day injured list with a forearm strain a couple weeks ago. Boxberger is throwing again but figures to miss a decent chunk of action. This is trending towards a Cubs’ buyout.

Cincinnati Reds

Votto is a franchise icon. He’s played his entire 17-season career in Cincinnati and it’s hard to envision him in another uniform. If he’s to stick with the Reds beyond this year, though, it’d almost certainly be at a cheaper price point than the option value. Votto had a below-average .205/.319/.370 batting line last season and hasn’t played this year as he works back from last August’s rotator cuff surgery.

  • Wil Myers: $12MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)

Myers’ first season as a Red hasn’t gone as planned. The offseason signee has started his Cincinnati career with a .189/.257/.283 batting line with three home runs over 141 plate appearances. Perhaps he’ll play well enough this summer the Reds can recoup something in a trade around the deadline. Cincinnati isn’t going to exercise their end of this option short of a massive turnaround, though.

Casali is part of a three-catcher group in Cincinnati. The veteran backstop has only a .157/.259/.157 line in 60 trips to the plate during his second stint as a Red. The club looks likely to decline their end of the option for the journeyman backstop.

Milwaukee Brewers

Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery last June. The Brewers signed him to a big league deal with an eye towards the second half and potentially the ’24 campaign. He’s on the 60-day injured list. This one’s still to be determined.

Pittsburgh Pirates

García landed in Pittsburgh after being non-tendered by the Giants last winter. His Bucs’ tenure hasn’t gotten off the ground. He suffered a biceps injury in Spring Training, was shut down from throwing entirely for more than a month, and has spent the year on the 60-day injured list. There’s no public clarity on his status.

St. Louis Cardinals

Six weeks ago, this looked like a no-brainer for the Cardinals to buy out. DeJong’s offensive production had absolutely nosedived since 2020. He hit only .196/.280/.351 in over 800 plate appearances between 2020-22. He struggled so badly last season the Cards optioned him to Triple-A for a spell.

The Cards continued to resist calls to move on from DeJong entirely, however. The front office has held out hope he could recapture the productive offensive form he showed through his first few seasons. They’ve been rewarded for their patience to this point in 2023. DeJong has had a surprising resurgence, popping eight home runs in 31 games. His bat has faded a bit in May after a scorching April, but the overall .234/.311/.495 line is 21 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong’s defense has always been above-average, and the offensive bounceback has gotten him back in the starting lineup at shortstop.

DeJong will need to maintain this form over an extended stretch before the Cards get to a point where it’s worthwhile to trigger the option. Tommy Edman and top prospect Masyn Winn are in the organization as potential replacements. Yet DeJong is performing better than any of the impending free agents in a weak shortstop class. That there’s a chance the front office might have to think about this one is a testament to his strong start.

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