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Mets Among Teams Interested In Andrew Chafin

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The market for lefty reliever Andrew Chafin is “heating up,” per Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link), and the Mets are among the teams with interest. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that as many as seven other clubs have been talking with Chafin, however. Mets GM Billy Eppler said yesterday that he still hoped to add another outfielder and a reliever, and he’s checked one of those two items off his list before lunch today by agreeing to a one-year deal with Tommy Pham.

Chafin, 32, is quite arguably the best reliever remaining on the free-agent market and entered the offseason as one of the top overall lefties available. He declined a $6.5MM player option with the Tigers at the end of the 2022 season and ought to be able to clear that guarantee by a fair measure — likely on a multi-year deal. That’s to be expected after the southpaw turned in a 2.83 ERA inn 57 1/3 innings last season while drawing similar reviews from fielding-independent marks like FIP (3.06), xERA (2.92) and SIERA (2.97).

While Chafin doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging just 91.8 mph on his heater in 2022, the veteran southpaw does offer one of the best blends of missed bats, solid command and ground-ball tendencies of any reliever in the game. Chafin fanned 27.6% of his opponents in 2022, combining that with a quality 7.8% walk rate and a 51.3% ground-ball rate. Chafin was one of just nine qualified relievers in all of baseball who topped a 25% strikeout rate and 50% ground-ball rate while also sporting a walk rate lower than 8%. He also limited hard contact quite well, yielding an 87.5 mph average exit velocity that ranked in the 73rd percentile of pitchers and a 33.8% hard-hit rate that sat in the 81st percentile, per Statcast.

Chafin isn’t necessarily elite in any one single way, but he’s well above-average in a variety of important areas. Coupled with his age and handedness, that ought to lead to widespread appeal on the free-agent market. The bullpen market as a whole got out to a quick start, but the market for lefties has been slower to develop — evidenced by the fact that Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Zack Britton are among the still-available names.

The Mets indeed represent a nice fit for Chafin, though a veteran of this stature is an upgrade to virtually any bullpen in the sport. New York currently projects to have Brooks Raley and perhaps one of David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi or Tayler Saucedo in the ’pen as lefty options for manager Buck Showalter. Adding Chafin could allow the Mets to either carry three southpaws or to begin the year with both Peterson and Lucchesi in the Triple-A rotation, keeping both stretched out as viable starting depth in the event of injuries at the MLB level.

Again, though, there simply aren’t many teams that Chafin wouldn’t improve, so finding suitors for him is likely more a matter of determining how many motivated spenders remain on the market. The Mets certainly fall into that bucket and wouldn’t bat an eye at the 90% luxury tax they’ll have to pay on top of Chafin’s salary, but there are certainly other contenders and hopeful contenders with some money to spend who could give the Mets some competition in the bidding.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Scott Boras Discusses Carlos Correa’s Free Agency Saga

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The league’s biggest story over the past month has been the winding saga involving Carlos Correa’s free agency. The two-time All-Star had agreements with the Giants and Mets each fall through after the teams raised concerns about the status of his right ankle during their physical examinations. After weeks of twists and turns, Correa returned to the Twins — where he’d spent the 2022 campaign.

Correa’s agent, Scott Boras, addressed the situation in an interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today over the weekend. The agent expressed frustration with the Mets, telling Nightengale the New York club relied upon the same doctor who had raised concerns with Correa’s ankle while consulting for the Giants. The shortstop himself said the same last week in an interview with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Both USA Today and Dan Martin/Jon Heyman of the New York Post each wrote over the weekend that Dr. Robert Anderson — a Wisconsin-based foot/ankle specialist who also has ample experience working with NFL players — was the orthopedist who consulted with team physicians for both San Francisco and New York.

“I don’t understand the Mets,” Boras told Nightengale. “I gave them all of the information. We had them talk to four doctors. They knew the issue the Giants had. And yet, they still call the same doctor the Giants used for his opinion. There was no new information. So why negotiate a contract if you were going to rely on the same doctor? It was different with the Giants because a doctor had an opinion they didn’t know about. But the Mets had notice of this. They knew the opinion of the Giants. So why did you negotiate when you know this thing in advance?”

Correa’s camp pivoted quickly to the Mets after the agreement with the Giants fell through. That wasn’t the case when New York expressed concerns with the physical. Boras and the Mets spent nearly two weeks in exclusive negotiations, with the team seeking drastic modification of the original 12-year, $315MM agreement.

As Heyman first reported last week, the Mets’ new proposal involved a guaranteed $157.5MM over six years, exactly slicing the initial agreement in half. The deal would’ve come with an additional six years and $157.5MM thereafter in conditional money, with Nightengale writing the Mets wanted Correa to take a physical at the conclusion of each of the final six seasons. Nightengale reports that Correa’s camp offered language that would’ve allowed the Mets to reduce their commitment in the event of a right ankle issue that cost him two months of action and a provision that would’ve allowed the team to void the deal if Correa missed 120+ days over a two-year span because of an ankle injury. Whatever the specifics under discussion, the sides clearly couldn’t settle upon a satisfactory compromise.

With talks having reached a stalemate, Boras opened up lines of communications with other teams in early January. Correa’s camp reached agreement with the Twins late last Monday on a six-year, $200MM guarantee that contains another four club/vesting options that could max the contract out at $270MM over ten years. Correa passed his physical with Minnesota, and the team made the deal official on Wednesday morning.

Neither the Giants nor the Mets have been able to offer much publicly on their reasons behind stepping away from their agreements. Officials with both clubs have noted that HIPAA privacy protections prevent them from revealing many specifics about player health. Both teams released brief statements after their deals fell through noting they were unable to come to agreements and wishing Correa the best. However, Andy Martino of SNY reported shortly before talks with the Mets collapsed that team officials had become “very frustrated” with the status of negotiations.

In the end, it all makes for little more than an historical footnote. Correa will be a Twin for at least the better part of the 2020’s, with Minnesota betting on the long-term stability of his ankle. The Giants and Mets will roll with Brandon Crawford and Francisco Lindor, respectively, at shortstop while sticking with previous in-house options around the infield.

Frank Thomas, MLB Outfielder From 1951-66, Passes Away

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Three-time All-Star Frank Thomas has passed away, according to announcements from the Mets and Pirates. Thomas, not to be confused with the Hall of Fame designated hitter who played 16 seasons with the White Sox, played for seven teams between 1951-66.

A Pittsburgh native, Thomas signed with his hometown Pirates out of high school in 1947. He spent three-plus seasons in the minors before making his MLB debut at the tail end of the 1951 campaign. Thomas saw sporadic playing time for his first couple years before getting his first extended action during his age-24 season in 1953.

Listed at 6’3″ and 200 pounds, the right-handed hitting outfielder quickly cemented himself as an excellent power hitter. He connected on 30 home runs with a .255/.331/.505 line during his first full season, earning some down-ballot MVP votes as a result. He’d remain a staple on MVP ballots throughout his run in Pittsburgh. Thomas secured at least some support in five of the six seasons from 1953-58, earning All-Star nods in ’54, ’55 and ’58. He peaked at fourth in the voting in 1958, finishing behind Ernie Banks, Willie Mays and Henry Aaron.

Thomas topped 20 longballs every year from 1953-58. His 161 homers over that time ranked 10th in the majors, with seven Hall of Famers in the group of nine players with more. Thomas had a cumulative .277/.335/.480 line in a little less than 3700 plate appearances for the Bucs in that time. He twice finished among the National League’s top ten in slugging and runs batted in, including a second-place finish with 109 RBI in 1958.

Over the 1958-59 offseason, Pittsburgh traded Thomas to the Reds as part of a seven-player deal that landed catcher Smoky Burgess and starter Harvey Haddix in the Steel City. He played one year in Cincinnati but struggled. The Reds dealt him to the Cubs for a three-player package headlined by reliever Bill Henry the next offseason. Thomas spent a bit more than a year with Chicago but continued to scuffle, with the Cubs dealing him to the Braves in May 1961. He righted the ship with 25 homers in 124 games for the then Milwaukee-based franchise.

The next winter, the Braves traded Thomas to the Mets. He joined the expansion club for their inaugural campaign in 1962 and connected on a team-leading 34 homers that season. Thomas would spent around two and a half seasons in Queens before being traded to the Phillies. He firmly settled into journeyman status to wrap up his career, playing with Philadelphia, Houston and second stints as a Brave and Cub before his playing career concluded in 1966.

All told, Thomas appeared in parts of 16 big league campaigns. He hit .266/.320/.454 across 1766 games. Thomas connected on 286 home runs, tying him for 177th on the all-time leaderboard. He doubled 262 times, drove in 962 runs and scored 792 times. His most productive seasons came with his hometown Pirates, though he played multiple seasons for five different clubs.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Thomas’ family, friends, former teammates and loved ones.

MLBTR Poll: The NL East Favorite

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The National League East is shaping up as one of baseball’s more competitive divisions in 2023. The defending champion Braves, Mets and Phillies have all made big moves to bolster their already strong rosters, while the Marlins will lean on a quality rotation to try and be competitive. The Nationals are, of course, in full rebuild mode and won’t be among the division’s best this year.

There’s still a chance of one or two significant moves to be made in this division. It’s been reported that Miami has made four of their starting pitchers available in trades, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ship out a starter to bring in an offensive upgrade, possibly an outfielder.

Nonetheless, let’s take a look at each team’s off-season to see how they stack up in this division heading into the new season (teams listed in last year’s standings order).

Atlanta Braves (101-61)

In: C Sean Murphy, LHP Lucas Luetge, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Eli White, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Joe Jimenez.

Out: SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Darren O’Day, RHP Luke Jackson, OF Adam Duvall, C William Contreras, C Manny Pina.

The Braves big splash of the off-season was their trade for Murphy. In typical Braves fashion, they wasted little time in extending him as well, signing him to a six-year, $73MM pact to lock him in as their catcher of the future. The Braves weren’t struggling at catcher, but the arrival of Murphy is still an upgrade over Contreras and Pina, who were both shipped out in the deal. He’ll join a lineup that is largely the same as the one that won 101 games last season. The big hole remains at shortstop and in left field. Swanson departed for the Cubs in free agency, and the team could either rely on Orlando Arcia or rookie Vaughn Grissom to take over. Eddie Rosario was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2022, but the Braves are paying him $9MM this year and it seems likely he’ll be back as the starter in left. Luplow could get some opportunities to take the starting job on his new team, but he posted a wRC+ of just 78 last season.

In the rotation, Max Fried will be back to lead a starting corp that also features Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and veteran Charlie Morton. A wretched run of Achilles injuries meant Mike Soroka has only made three starts in the past three seasons, but he’s back and if he can stay fit and return to his 2019 performance he gives the Braves a quality fifth option. The acquisitions of Luetge and Jimenez gives the Braves another couple of quality relief arms to cover the departure of Jansen in free agency.

All told it’s a quality roster that doesn’t appear to be weaker the 2022, but will it be enough to hold off other teams in the division?

New York Mets (101-61)

In: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Zach Greene, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kodai Senga, C Omar Narvaez, SS Danny Mendick, RHP Stephen Ridings, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham.

Out: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP, Seth Lugo, RHP Trevor May, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Taijuan Walker, 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Mychal Givens, C James McCann.

The Mets effectively had to overhaul their rotation and bullpen this winter, after a series of major departures in both areas. In a fashion befitting the Steve Cohen-era Mets, they did so in expensive fashion. The Mets quickly offset the departures of deGrom, Bassitt and Walker by signing Verlander, Quintana and Senga to big deals and ensuring their rotation is at least as strong as last year. In the bullpen they re-signed Adam Ottavino, brought in David Robertson and made a series of smaller trades and waiver claims to rebuild their relief group.

Offensively, the Mets didn’t have too many moves to make. The big hole was in the outfield, but the team addressed that by bringing back Brandon Nimmo on an eight-year, $162MM deal. They came close to adding Carlos Correa, but that move broke down over the much-publicized medical concerns. Correa would’ve certainly been a boost to their offense, but they’re still in a good spot without him. They could probably still do with another outfielder, and it’s been reported that they’re interested in the remaining free agent options there (Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall etc).

The Mets led the East for the majority of 2022 and they’ll again be up there in ’23. Perhaps one more major move (like Correa) would’ve sealed them as division favorites, but they’re still in a very good spot as is.

Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)

In: LHP Gregory Soto, INF Kody Clemens, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Matt Strahm, SS Trea Turner, OF Jake Cave,

Out: OF Matt Vierling, INF Phil Maton, C Donny Sands, INF Jean Segura, RHP Noah Syndergaard, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Chris Devenski, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP David Robertson, RHP Zach Eflin, RHP Corey Knebel.

The Phillies went all the way to the World Series in 2022, but they still finished 14 games back of the Braves and Mets in the division so had a bit of work to do to try and close that gap going into this season. The addition of Turner gives them a superstar at the top of their lineup alongside Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and co. If youngsters Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can take a step forward at the plate this year they’ll have a much deeper lineup. They’ll hope they can do enough to stick with the Braves and Mets in the first half of the season, before welcoming back star Bryce Harper from injury at some stage mid-season.

On the pitching side of things, Walker slots in as a quality third option behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the rotation. The bullpen lost a number of players this winter, but the additions of Strahm, Soto and Kimbrel to a group that already has Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado and Andrew Bellatti should make that area of the team a strength in season.

All told, the Phillies do look a better unit than they were to start 2022, but it remains to be seen whether or not that’ll be enough to make up 14 games on the Braves and Mets – who certainly haven’t taken a step backwards themselves this winter.

Miami Marlins (69-93)

In: INF Jacob Amaya, INF Jean Segura, OF Jake Mangum, RHP JT Chargois, SS Xavier Edwards, RHP Johnny Cueto.

Out: SS Miguel Rojas, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham, 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Nick Neidert.

The Marlins have had a quiet off-season, but they could be one of the busiest teams in all of baseball, let alone the NL East, between now and the start of the season. That’s because they’ve reportedly made four of their starters – Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo – available in trades. That speculation has only intensified in the wake of them agreeing to a deal with veteran starter Johnny Cueto.

As such, it makes sense to start with a look at their rotation as things stand. Sandy Alcantara isn’t going anywhere and he’ll be back to lead the rotation after winning the Cy Young award in 2022. Beyond Alcantara will be Cueto and then some combination of the four previously mentioned starters. The fact team also has Sixto Sanchez returning as well as Braxton Garrett available shows how deep their rotation options are, but also that they could feasibly deal two starters and still be in a good position in the rotation. In any event, pitching should be a strength for the Marlins in 2023.

Presumably any trade of a starter would be to add a bat to their lineup. The signing of Segura likely filled out their infield, but the team could certainly do with an outfield upgrade. Bryan Reynolds is the highest profile option there, but other options on the could include Max Kepler or a free agent addition such as Pham or Duvall.

The Marlins do look capable of topping last year’s 69-win total as is, but it’d be interesting to see how they’d go with a deeper lineup, and whether or not a swing-for-the-fences-type move such as trading for Reynolds would propel them into the Wildcard conversation.

Washington Nationals (55-107)

In: OF Corey Dickerson, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Jeter Downs, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Stone Garrett, 3B Jeimer Candelario.

Out: 1B/DH Luke Voit, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Will Harris, 2B Cesar Hernandez, RHP Joe Ross, DH Nelson Cruz, LHP Sean Doolittle, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Tommy Romero, RHP A.J. Alexy.

After eight-straight winning seasons between 2012-19 culminated in a championship in 2019, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode. They lost 107 games in 2022, and wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose a similar amount in 2023. While the new schedule calls for fewer divisional matchups, the Nats certainly won’t be helped by regularly playing in a division with a number of quality teams.

Offensively, the Nationals will look for contributions from youngsters CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz – two players they’ll hope to build their next playoff roster around. They’ve also brought in a couple of cheaper bounceback candidates in Smith and Candelario, and both could turn themselves into trade chips at the deadline. It’s a similar story on the pitching side, where they’ll hope Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli can show they can be long-term rotation pieces for the team.

While the Nationals are the clear favorite to prop up the group, it should be an interesting battle in the NL East, particularly with the Braves, Mets and Phillies. What do you think? Who will finish top of the East? Have your say in the poll below.

Mets, Pete Alonso Avoid Arbitration

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The Mets and first baseman Pete Alonso have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $14.5MM deal for the 2023, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Alonso, 28, had a stellar year in 2022, slashing .271/.352/.518 and hitting 40 home runs in a campaign that saw him lead the NL in RBI while tying Aaron Judge for the MLB lead. Alonso’s 143 wRC+ was 12th-best among all major league hitters this season.

Alonso has been a member of the Mets organization for his entire career to this point, exploded onto the major league scene in 2019, slugging a league-leading 53 home runs during a season that saw him win Rookie of the Year and place 7th in NL MVP voting. While he hasn’t returned to the heights of his rookie season to this point in his career, he’s been remarkable nonetheless thanks to his consistency.

His wRC+ in 2022 nearly matched that of his 2019 debut season (144 wRC+), and both seasons are only slightly above his career his career mark of 138, with his only season below a 130 wRC+ being the shortened 2020 campaign. As the best offensive performer on a 101-win Mets team in 2022, Alonso figures to once again be a key player on a team with World Series aspirations headed into the 2023 season.

The $14.5MM agreement, despite being the largest agreement ever for a first baseman in arbitration (though it was promptly matched by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), actually comes in significantly below his $15.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz. Alonso will be eligible for arbitration once more in 2024, and is set to become a free agent during the 2024-2025 offseason.

Mets Acquire Luis De La Cruz From Orioles

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The Orioles announced that they have traded infielder/outfielder Luis De La Cruz to the Mets as the player to be named later from the James McCann trade.

De La Cruz, 20, has spent the past couple of seasons in the Dominican Summer League, playing first base and the outfield corners. In 60 games over those two seasons, he’s hit .252/.405/.316. He has just one home run but has walked in 16.4% of his plate appearances compared to an 18.5% strikeout rate.

McCann signed a four-year, $40.6MM contract with the Mets going into 2021, but he struggled in the first two years of the deal. In flipping him to the O’s for a player to be named later or cash considerations, it was mostly about getting him off the roster and clearing some money off their ledger. They’re still on the hook for $19MM of the $24MM owed to McCann, but that $5MM drop will actually save them more than that since they are well into luxury tax territory this year and seem likely to be in the same position next year. But in addition to the cost savings, they’ve now added a young player to the lower levels of their farm system.

Mets Interested In Tommy Pham

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The Mets’ search for a right-handed hitting outfielder continues. They were connected earlier this week to Andrew McCutchen, though he agreed to terms with the Pirates earlier today. The Mets have also had reported interest in Adam Duvall and Trey Mancini, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Tommy Pham is another name they are now considering.

Pham, 35, was drafted by the Cardinals in 2006 but didn’t truly breakout as a major leaguer until over a decade later. In 2017, when Pham was 29, he hit 23 home runs and stole 25 bases. He also drew walks at a healthy 13.4% clip, leading to an overall batting line of .306/.411/.520. That production was 49% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and Pham was worth 6.3 wins above replacement that year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Pham would continue putting up really good numbers for a few more years with the Cardinals and Rays, but there’s been dip over the past few seasons. He was with the Padres for 2020 and 2021 but hit just .226/.335/.370 over those seasons for a wRC+ of 98, indicating he was 2% below league average. He reached free agency and signed with the Reds for 2022, later going to the Red Sox in a deadline deal. He finished the year with a combined batting line of .236/.312/.374 between the two clubs, good enough for a wRC+ of 89. His walk rate, which was in the 13% range for much of his prime, slipped to 9%. Most fans probably remember his fantasy football-related slap of Joc Pederson more than anything Pham did in a game last year.

Despite those recent struggles, there could be a case for Pham to carve out a part-time role on a strong Mets’ roster. The regular outfield is already set, with Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha and Starling Marte in the three full-time jobs. The left-handed swinging Daniel Vogelbach seems to be lined up to get the bulk of the time at designated hitter, with the right-handed Darin Ruf on hand to potentially serve as a fourth outfielder and spell Vogelbach against lefties. However, Ruf hit just .152/.216/.197 after coming over to the Mets in a trade with the Giants last year, and the club probably wants to find another option that gives them some more confidence.

Pham has hit lefties better in his career, producing a 132 wRC+ against them but a 110 against righties. That still carried into 2022, as he limped to an 81 wRC+ against righties but produced a 115 figure versus southpaws. Though he’s no longer a threat to steal 25 bases, he did swipe eight last year. Statcast also thinks the tools are still in there, with Pham ranking in the 93rd percentile in terms of exit velocity, 86th in maximum exit velocity, 89th in hard hit rate, 74th in arm strength and 66th in sprint speed.

It seems as though the Mets are focused on adding a right-handed hitting outfielder as their next move, having been connected to McCutchen, Duvall, Mancini and Pham in recent days. The free agent market also features Brian Anderson as well as switch-hitters Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar.

Mets Interested In Trey Mancini, Adam Duvall

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The Mets have Trey Mancini and Adam Duvall “on their radar,” according to Andy Martino of SNY.

Mancini, 31 in March, put up a monster season in 2019, hitting 35 home runs and batting .291/.364/.535. Although that was the “juiced ball” season, that production was still 32% better than league average, as evidenced by his 132 wRC+. He then missed the 2020 season while undergoing treatment for a colon cancer diagnosis, but he made an inspiring return to the field the following year.

Over the past couple of seasons, Mancini has settled in as a cromulent player, although a notch below that excellent 2019 showing. He’s produced a combined .247/.323/.412 batting line in 2021 and 2022, leading to a wRC+ of 104. He’s provided some above-average defense at first base while also playing the outfield corners on occasion. His market has been fairly quiet thus far this winter, with the Cubs lone team showing reported interest. However, that was before they signed first baseman Eric Hosmer, which perhaps dampens their interest in Mancini.

Duvall, 34, is coming off a down year, though he had a good showing in the prior campaign. He’s always been a high-strikeout guy and that was indeed the case again in 2021. He was punched out in 31.4% of his plate appearances but also hit 38 home runs. That led to a batting line of .228/.281/.491 for a wRC+ of 103. He also provided excellent outfield defense, winning a Gold Glove in right field as a result.

Unfortunately, Duvall took a step back last year. He hit .213/.276/.401 for a wRC+ of 87 before his season was cut short by wrist surgery in July. That’s certainly not an ideal platform for this trip into free agency but he showed what he’s capable of the year before. Like Mancini, his market has been relatively quiet this offseason, with this appearing to be the first public connection to a team.

The Mets have seemingly been on the lookout for a complementary player to add to their outfield mix. Their interest in Andrew McCutchen was reported yesterday, and now this interest in Mancini and Duvall adds a couple more names into the mix. All three players are right-handed bats who have at least some capability to spend some time in the outfield. The current outfield should feature Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte and Mark Canha taking up the bulk of the time, but it makes sense to add to it for injury insurance. Khalil Lee could be used as a fourth outfielder but he had a poor season in Triple-A last year and still has an option remaining.

Darin Ruf is in the mix as someone who can occasionally play outfield and platoon with lefty Daniel Vogelbach at designated hitter. However, he struggled badly after coming over to the Mets in a trade with the Giants. He was hitting .216/.328/.373 at the time of the deal but produced an ice-cold line of .152/.216/.197 after. It seems the club is hoping to bring in another option for that job, with McCutchen, Mancini and Duval three names under consideration. Some other options still available in free agency include Tommy Pham, Brian Anderson and the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar.

Mets Among Teams With Interest In Andrew McCutchen

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The Mets have shown interest in veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). New York joins the Rays and Dodgers as teams known to have checked in regarding the former MVP this offseason.

McCutchen is one of the better right-handed hitting outfielders remaining in free agency. At age 36, he’s no longer the dynamic superstar he was at his peak. Yet the five-time All-Star still has a patient plate approach and decent power. McCutchen connected on 17 home runs while drawing walks in 9.8% of his 580 plate appearances with the Brewers last season. He made hard contact on 40% of his batted balls, around four points higher than the league average.

Overall, his .237/.316/.384 line was right around league average. McCutchen has posted approximately average offensive numbers three years running, although the shape of his production was different last year than in previous seasons. From 2020-21 as a member of the Phillies, he stumbled to a .204/.297/.364 line against right-handed pitching but tattooed southpaws at a .290/.402/.603 clip. His splits were fairly even in 2022. McCutchen improved to .237/.316/.384 against same-handed arms but dropped back to .221/.303/.434 when holding the platoon advantage.

McCutchen is essentially limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter at this stage of his career. He started a pair of games in center last season but that marked his first action up the middle since 2019. He’s played primarily left field of late. Public metrics weren’t especially found of his glovework in Philadelphia, but Defensive Runs Saved credited him as five runs better than the average left fielder over 268 1/3 innings there last season. Milwaukee gave him more run at designated hitter but he’s capable of logging at least part-time corner outfield work.

It’s that role for which the Mets are ostensibly eyeing him. New York has a quality starting trio of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte. Nimmo has had a number of injured list stints throughout his career, while both Canha and Marte are into their mid-30’s. Khalil Lee, coming off a .211/.326/.366 showing in Triple-A, is the only other natural outfielder on the 40-man roster. Darin Ruf can also factor into the corner outfield but had a tough second half after being acquired from the Giants. There’s appeal for New York in adding a quality player to the bench. A center field-capable player might be preferable, but Marte at least gives New York some cover as insurance behind Nimmo if the Mets were to add a corner-only bat.

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