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Red Sox Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Red Sox are among a number of teams with interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, according to a report from Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Hiles mentions the Yankees, Mets, and Cubs as being among the other teams that have reached out to the Pirates about Keller, though each of those clubs has previously been connected to the righty this summer.

It should be of little surprise that Boston would have interest in Keller’s services. The 2023 All-Star is in the midst of a career season with the Pirates. He’s posted a 3.69 ERA in 22 starts with a 3.44 FIP. Keller’s strikeout rate (18.8%) is down substantially from previous seasons, which could be a cause for concern, but his 6.6% barrel rate is the lowest of his career and he’s limited his walks to a tidy 6.2%, also a career low. More advanced metrics are skeptical of Keller’s ability to continue producing at this rate with such a low strikeout rate, however; the right-hander’s 4.21 SIERA is the 18th-weakest figure among the league’s 59 qualified starters this year. That suggests he may profile more as a back-of-the-rotation starter than the playoff-caliber #2 his surface-level numbers this year might otherwise make him out to be.

Despite those concerns, Keller remains an attractive trade target. He’s been fairly durable in recent years, with the league’s 12th-highest innings total since 2022, and at just 29 years old he’ll remain in his prime for a few more seasons. With three more years of team control after this one after he signed an extension with the Pirates last year, Keller would be a fixture of an acquiring club’s rotation for years to come. That should be especially attractive to the Red Sox, who could lose both Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler to free agency this winter, though Giolito’s deal has a 2026 option. Either way, they will need reliable arms to fill out the remainder of their rotation alongside Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. He should be attractive to a number of other teams as well; in addition to the clubs mentioned above, Keller has also been connected to the Blue Jays.

Despite that solid base of teams Keller is drawing interest from, however, Hiles emphasizes that there’s no guarantee he’ll actually be traded this summer. Hiles reports that the Pirates are “comfortable” holding onto Keller if their “steep” asking price isn’t met, and Hiles adds that Pittsburgh could revisit dealing Keller in the offseason, when it could be easier to pry a hitter already in the majors away from interested clubs. That seems likely to be true of the Red Sox, at least. Boston outfielder Jarren Duran has been the frequent subject of trade speculation in recent weeks due to the club’s logjam of talent in the outfield, but the latest signals point to the club holding onto him this summer and re-evaluating over the winter.

Duran, an above-average everyday player controlled through the end of the 2028 season, is the exact sort of player the Pirates are surely dreaming of acquiring. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Pirates are holding out for a controllable hitter of that caliber and ultimately decide to keep Keller in the fold in order to try again this winter if that asking price isn’t met. Of course, that strategy would run the risk of interested clubs pivoting elsewhere once free agency opens up additional options. With roughly $56MM left on his deal after the 2025 season, Keller is more expensive financially than the typical trade target. That could leave his market to be more impacted by free agency than the average trade piece, at least during the offseason. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Brandon Woodruff are among the many intriguing starting pitchers who figure to be available this winter, and some teams would likely prefer to pay for one of those arms rather than surrendering both budget space and talent to land Keller in the winter.

Rangers, Tigers Interested In David Bednar

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With this year’s trade deadline just a matter of days away, the Pirates could be one of the more active sellers over the next few days. According to a report from Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Pirates GM Ben Cherington is “looking to sell high” on closer David Bednar as he fields inquiries from multiple contenders regarding the 30-year-old. The Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, and Cubs have all previously been connected to Bednar this summer. Hiles reiterates the Phillies’ interest in the righty and adds two additional suitors to the pile: the Rangers and the Tigers. What’s more, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports this morning that Pittsburgh has discussed the possibility of a deal with the Blue Jays that would send a reliever to Toronto, although it’s unclear whether that relief arm would be Bednar or another piece like Dennis Santana.

It’s hardly a shock that any of these newly-reported clubs would be interested in Bednar’s services. The two-time All-Star has been one of the league’s best closers for years now. Dating back to the 2021 season, Bednar has a 3.01 ERA and 101 saves in 275 1/3 innings of work. He’s struck out 29.4% of his opponents and has a 2.94 FIP. Those are already very impressive numbers, but they become all the more significant when one considers that Bednar struggled badly last year with a 5.77 ERA and 4.80 FIP across 62 appearances.

That his overall numbers remain that strong despite his brutal 2024 shows how utterly dominant Bednar has been the rest of the time, and 2025 is no exception. This year, he’s pitched to a 2.37 ERA with 17 saves and a 33.1% strikeout rate to go with a 1.96 FIP in 38 innings of work. He surrendered his first run since May 23 during last night’s save against the Giants and sports an eye-popping 1.70 ERA and 1.47 FIP dating back to April 19. That’s the day Bednar returned to the majors after three rough outings in Pittsburgh’s first four games of the season convinced the Pirates to option him to Triple-A for the reset. To say that reset has worked out would be an understatement, as Bednar’s elite play since his return has made him perhaps the club’s most valuable trade chip this summer.

Bednar’s value has risen enough that Hiles writes the Pirates are asking potential suitors to include one prospect within their organization’s top five in the return package for his services. The Pirates are known to be targeting upper-level hitting prospects and big league ready offensive talent this summer as they look to build a stronger position player corps to support Paul Skenes and the rest of their vaunted pitching core in 2026 and beyond. That makes some clubs a difficult fit for the Pirates’ needs. The Rangers, for example, surely wouldn’t consider parting with top prospect Sebastian Walcott in this sort of deal but have few other highly-rated, upper-level positional prospects in their system. Likewise, six of the Blue Jays’ top seven prospects according to MLB Pipeline are pitchers. By contrast, teams like the Tigers, Cubs, and Dodgers have a bevy of positional talent, some of which is in Double- and Triple-A already, from which they could deal if so inclined.

A club not being a perfect fit for the Pirates’s preferred return doesn’t necessarily mean a deal can’t be made as long as the buying club is sufficiently motivated, however. The Rangers seem like a particularly strong fit for Bednar. They enter trade season pressed up against the luxury tax with minimal room to take on salary barring a sudden change of heart from ownership, and taking on the final two months of Bednar’s $5.9MM salary for the season would be an extremely light financial burden for a player of Bednar’s caliber. Additionally, their recent struggles with putting together a quality bullpen could make someone controlled beyond the 2025 season like Bednar (who will reach free agency after 2026) an especially attractive option.

Speculatively speaking, perhaps there’s a deal to be made between the Rangers and Pirates involving a big league hitter like Adolis Garcia supported by lower-level prospects from Texas’s system. Likewise, the Blue Jays have a number of young position players who have graduated from prospect status who they could consider trading in the right deal, whether that’s for Bednar or another reliever like Santana or Caleb Ferguson. Toronto’s bullpen could certainly use the boost Bednar would provide given that incumbent closer Jeff Hoffman’s season has come off the rails after an elite month of April, and with players like George Springer and Kevin Gausman getting older as they approach the end of their contracts there’s plenty of urgency to make a deep postseason run.

The Tigers might be best positioned to make a deal for Bednar of this trio of teams, however. Bednar’s team control window lines up with that of ace southpaw Tarik Skubal, so adding him to the fold would allow Detroit to maximize Skubal’s time with the organization. The bullpen has emerged as a clear weak spot in an otherwise impressively deep organization, and Bednar closing out games with Will Vest and Tyler Holton setting him up would make for a much more imposing relief corps this October. What’s more, the Tigers have a number of well-regarded position player prospects in the upper levels of the minors, to say nothing of pieces with big league experience like Jace Jung and Trey Sweeney. It’s unclear just how much the Tigers would really be willing to part with in order to acquire Bednar, but they certainly have the sort of deep group of positional talent that could make them a very enticing trade partner for the Pirates.

Pirates Not Committed To Trading Mitch Keller

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Mitch Keller is one of the top names on the pitching market. The Pirates have generally been expected to deal him to clear payroll space and bring back controllable hitting talent. While that’s seemingly the likeliest outcome, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Pirates remain unsure of whether to trade Keller with six days before the deadline.

Keller is essentially in the first season of a four-year contract. He signed an extension in February 2024, though that left his already agreed upon salary for last year unchanged. Keller is playing on a $15MM salary this year. That’ll climb to $16.5MM, $18MM, and $20MM for the next three seasons. It takes him through his age-32 campaign.

That makes Keller the highest-paid player on the roster. It’s nevertheless quite a bit less than he’d command if he were on the open market. There’s surplus value that’d allow the Pirates to land a significant return. Keller is amidst the best season of his career. He owns a personal-low 3.53 earned run average in 125 innings. He’s only striking out 18.7% of batters faced, but he is walking fewer than 6% of opposing hitters. Keller has taken a step forward in handling left-handed hitters after struggling in that regard earlier in his career.

It’s a rock-solid #3 starter profile. Keller has been exceptionally durable and has a six-pitch arsenal that’s headlined by a 94 MPH fastball. The Bucs have reportedly gotten calls from the Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs and Mets — presumably among others that haven’t been reported. Noah Hiles of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has suggested the Cubs view Keller as something of a fallback target. The Mets are involved in the rotation market but presently more focused on the bullpen. Toronto and the Yankees still appear strongly involved in the rotation market. Teams like the Giants, Red Sox and Tigers could also pursue controllable starting pitching.

The Pirates are weighing that against the possibility of keeping Keller behind Paul Skenes in the rotation. Top prospect Bubba Chandler should be up before the end of the season. Jared Jones could return midway through the ’26 campaign. That’d be a potentially elite top four if they were all healthy. Pitcher injuries are always a concern, though, and the Pirates have run out unplayable lineups year after year. They’re unlikely to spend their way out of that problem. Even with star shortstop prospect Konnor Griffin coming through the pipeline, there’s not enough hitting talent in the organization.

Trading Keller is probably their best path to acquiring young offensive upside. Pittsburgh should also get a notable return for closer David Bednar, who is under arbitration control for another season after this one. Setup man Dennis Santana has built a decent amount of value as well. The Bucs aren’t expected to move Oneil Cruz unless they’re completely blown away by an offer. None of their impending free agents are going to bring much back.

General manager Ben Cherington was hired over the 2019-20 offseason. The Pirates haven’t come especially close to making the playoffs in that time. They already replaced skipper Derek Shelton earlier in the season. It stands to reason Cherington is motivated to demonstrate a path to the playoffs for the 2026 club. Trading Keller for low minors prospects wouldn’t do much to that end, so it’d make sense for them to demand high minors and/or young MLB talent.

Yankees Pursuing Righty-Hitting Infielder, Bullpen Help

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The Yankees made one of deadline season’s biggest moves so far, acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon from Colorado for a pair of pitching prospects. That addressed their most glaring need on the position player side. It nevertheless might not be their only acquisition on the dirt.

Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports that the Yankees are looking to add an infielder who can hit from the right side. Kirschner specifically adds that New York is interested in switch-hitting Twins utilityman Willi Castro. He also floats Washington’s Amed Rosario as a player whom the front office has liked.

They’re two of a number of potential options. Old friends Thairo Estrada (Rockies) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Pirates) are short-term pieces on bad teams. The A’s Luis Urías and Baltimore’s Ramón Urías (Luis’ older brother) should each be available. The Angels could listen on switch-hitting rentals Yoán Moncada and Luis Rengifo.

Castro is the best of that group — and consequently, the one who should draw the most interest from various teams. He entered play tonight with a .257/.346/.429 slash line with 10 homers across 319 plate appearances. Castro has been a slightly above-average hitter in three consecutive seasons. He’d be a particular boost versus left-handed pitching, against whom he’s hitting .284/.341/.519. His .246/.348/.392 slash against righties is closer to average but hardly unplayable.

Minnesota is four games below .500 and five games out of a Wild Card spot. They’re open to offers on rentals. The 28-year-old Castro is playing on a $6.4MM salary for his final arbitration season. He’s not a great defensive player at any spot, but he’s able to move between second base, third base, and the corner outfield positions. He has plenty of shortstop experience as well, though he shouldn’t be playing there regularly.

If Castro fits the superutility mold, Rosario is more of a short-side platoon bat. He hits lefties well, including a .299/.333/.483 showing this season. He makes contact against right-handed pitching but almost never walks and doesn’t hit for power off righties. Rosario was a shortstop earlier in his career but is now mostly limited to second/third base. He’s playing on a $2MM salary and is an impending free agent.

The Yanks will give the majority of playing time between second and third base to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and McMahon. They each hit from the left side. Chisholm is a career .224/.286/.354 hitter against southpaws. McMahon has a lifetime .231/.307/.378 line without the platoon advantage. Oswald Peraza is their right-handed complement for now, but he hasn’t shown he can hit MLB pitching of either handedness. He’s a superior defender to Castro and Rosario but hasn’t provided anything with the bat. Peraza is out of options, so the Yankees would need to expose him to waivers before they could send him to the minors. If they acquire a right-handed hitting infielder, that’d almost certainly squeeze him off the roster.

Kirschner adds that the Yankees — like virtually every contender — are also pursuing bullpen help. He lists Pittsburgh’s David Bednar and the Minnesota trio of Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax and Danny Coulombe among the presumably dozens of bullpen options whom the Yanks are considering.

Durán and Jax are each questionable to move; the Twins are reportedly demanding multiple top prospects for either controllable late-game weapon. Bednar, who is playing on a $5.9MM salary and arbitration-eligible for one more season, is likely to go but would require a big return in his own right. Coulombe would come with the lowest prospect cost of that group. He’s a rental playing on a $3MM deal. Pittsburgh and Minnesota are surely getting calls from a number of teams on those pitchers (as well as the likes of Dennis Santana and Brock Stewart).

Pirates Listening On Oneil Cruz; Deal Seen As Unlikely

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Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz is thought to be available on the trade market, though a deal seems to be a long shot. Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the club is not shopping him but has received plenty of calls and is willing to listen to offers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com frames the situation similarly, saying that the Bucs would have to be bowled over by an offer in order to pull the trigger. Jeff Passan of ESPN is even more emphatic, saying that Cruz isn’t going anywhere.

The possibility of a Cruz trade first seemed to open about a month ago, when it was reported that the Pirates had very few untouchable players ahead of this year’s deadline. Apart from Paul Skenes and franchise icon Andrew McCutchen, it seemed everyone else was on the table.

A lot of the club’s focus seems to be on players they signed to long-term deals who are no longer in their plans. That would be Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller. Both Hayes and Reynolds have had disappointing results lately and their contracts are seen as underwater. Keller has been pitching well but he may be expendable since the club has so many younger and cheaper pitchers who could replace him.

Cruz would be a different situation. He is still young and cheaply affordable. He can be retained for three seasons beyond this one. He will qualify for arbitration for the first time at the end of this season.

His performance on the field has not been perfect but he is clearly talented and valuable. He has some of the top raw abilities in the majors, frequently topping Statcast leaderboards with his exit velocity, speed and arm strength. On the other hand, he strikes out a lot and his defense is wobbly. By the eye test, he takes some awkward routes but he can make up for those sometimes with his excellent speed.

He has been punched out in 31.9% of his plate appearances this year but he’s also drawn walks at a 12.5% clip and hit 16 home runs. The result is a .219/.319/.419 batting line and 102 wRC+. He has 33 steals in 37 attempts. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -7 this year but Outs Above Average has him at +2. Put it all together and it’s still a strong player. FanGraphs credited him with 3.5 wins above replacement last year and he’s on a similar pace this year, currently at 2.0 fWAR.

Teams will naturally be attracted to that, especially those with notable budgetary concerns. However, from Pittsburgh’s perspective, it’s understandable that they would set a high asking price. They have developed a huge pool of pitching talent but have struggled to do the same with their position players. Players like Hayes, Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and others have not turned out as hoped.

Cruz, on the other hand, is the club’s best position player. He’s the only one on the team to have produced more than 1.1 fWAR this year. Last year, he was the only guy to get beyond 2.1 fWAR. In other words, trading him would blow a huge hole in the lineup. And the lineup already has a few of those.

The Pirates aren’t contending this year but presumably want to get over the hump soon. They haven’t been in the playoffs since 2015. They have an exciting group of young pitchers, headlined by Skenes, and surely want to build a winning club around them. They’re already having a hard time doing that with Cruz on the roster. Unless they get offered something too good to refuse, it seems he is likely staying in Pittsburgh.

Teams like the Royals, Guardians, Mets, Phillies, Tigers and Angels could be looking for center field help, though they may have a better chance at getting guys like Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins, Harrison Bader or Alek Thomas. The Pirates will listen to Cruz offers but will likely spend more time talking about Keller, Reynolds, Hayes and others in the next week.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

Jesse Chavez Announces Retirement

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Right-hander Jesse Chavez announced his retirement on Foul Territory today. He was on the Braves’ roster until recently but was designated for assignment a week ago when that club acquired Dane Dunning. Chavez elected free agency after clearing waivers and has apparently decided to hang up his spikes in recent days.

“I don’t think we’re gonna keep going,” Chavez said. “I think this is it, time to turn the page, focus on the next chapter in life and go help all the young kids, all the stuff that I did so they don’t have to take two steps backwards and take those three steps forward.”

Chavez wraps up his career just shy of his 42nd birthday, which is less than a month away. He had an incredibly unique career in terms of the miles he traveled and jerseys he wore over the years. As detailed by Matt Monagan of MLB.com in 2022, Chavez is the most traded player in history, having been flipped ten times.

He was initially drafted by the Cubs in the 39th round of the 2001 draft but decided to go to college. Then the Rangers took him in the 42nd round the year after and got him to sign. The draft is now only 20 rounds in length but was obviously longer back then.

Prior to making it to the majors, he was traded for the first time, getting sent to the Pirates for Kip Wells in 2006. He made his major league debut with that club in 2008, tossing 15 innings with a 6.60 earned run average. He stuck with the Bucs through 2009 but then before the 2010 season was flipped to the Rays for Akinori Iwamura and then to the Braves for Rafael Soriano. His first stint with Atlanta lasted just a few months, as he was traded to the Royals at the deadline alongside Gregor Blanco and Tim Collins for Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth.

He stuck with the Royals through the 2011 season before being put on waivers, when the Blue Jays claimed him. In August of 2012, he was traded to the Athletics in exchange for cash considerations.

At the end of the 2012 season, Chavez still hadn’t had a lot of major league success. He had a 5.99 ERA in 177 1/3 innings. The move to Oakland seemed to work out well for him. In 2013, he tossed 57 1/3 relief innings with a 3.92 ERA. He got stretched out for a rotation role and performed well. He logged 303 innings over the 2014 and 2015 seasons with a 3.83 ERA.

Going into 2016, he was traded back to the Blue Jays, with Liam Hendriks sent the other way. That second stint with the Jays lasted just a few months, as he was flipped to the Dodgers for Mike Bolsinger ahead of the 2016 deadline. Both of those clubs kept in him relief and he had a 4.43 ERA that year.

He reached free agency for the first time ahead of the 2017 season and signed a one-year, $5.8MM deal with the Angels. The Halos stretched him back out but the results weren’t great, with a 5.43 ERA through July. He was moved back to the bullpen and had a slightly better 4.94 ERA the rest of the way.

"<strongGoing into 2018, he signed a one-year, $1MM deal to return to the Rangers, the first organization he signed with. That turned out to be one of his best seasons. He was traded the Cubs for Tyler Thomas at the deadline and finished that year with a 2.55 ERA. He got to make his first postseason appearance with the Cubs, tossing a scoreless inning in the Wild Card game against the Rockies, but the Cubs ultimately lost in 13 innings.

He returned to free agency and signed with the Rangers yet again, this time on a two-year deal worth $8MM. That deal didn’t work out quite as well, as he posted a 5.21 ERA over those two seasons.

He had to settle for a minor league deal with Atlanta going into 2021, but he showed he still had something left in the tank. He was able to to throw 33 2/3 innings in the majors that year with a 2.14 ERA. He cracked the postseason roster and tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings as Atlanta won it all, getting Chavez a World Series ring.

He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs going into 2022 and got a brief stint on their roster before getting flipped back to Atlanta for Sean Newcomb. A few months later, he and Tucker Davidson were flipped to the Angels for Raisel Iglesias.

In the latter years of his career, he always seemed to wind up back in Atlanta. Even after being traded away in August of 2022, he was back in Atlanta via waivers a few weeks later. Via further minor league deals, he ended up tossing 34 2/3 innings in 2023 with a 1.56 ERA and then 63 1/3 innings last year with a 3.13 ERA. This year, his time on the roster has been more limited, with eight innings and eight earned runs allowed.

In the end, Chavez played in 18 seasons for nine different teams, getting traded ten times. He got into 657 games and tossed 1,142 innings with a 4.27 ERA. He had a 51-66 win-loss record, nine saves and 76 holds. Baseball Reference lists his career earnings above $25MM. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute him on his incredibly long and winding career and wish him the best with the next phase of his life. Based on his comments above, it sounds like maybe he’ll turn up in a coaching role in the future.

Photos courtesy of Kelley L Cox, Tim Heitman and Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

Poll: Will The Pirates Be Able To Trade Ke’Bryan Hayes?

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The Pirates have been one of the league’s most obvious sellers for quite some time now. Most of the attention has been on pieces like Mitch Keller and David Bednar, both of whom could bring back substantial returns as quality pitchers with multiple years of team control. With that being said, third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes has found his name in the rumor mill on occasion this summer. Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette noted earlier this week that the Pirates have a “notable desire” to move on from Hayes, who will have $36MM left on his deal after this season, in addition to the balance of this year’s $7MM salary.

It’s not hard to see why Pittsburgh might like to part ways with their former top prospect. Hayes’s salary isn’t exactly pricey, but for a small market club like the Pirates, even a relatively cheap contract that’s underwater relative to the player’s production can be an issue. The 28-year-old has rarely been healthy throughout his big league career, and even when healthy has struggled on offense. This year, he’s slashing a paltry .234/.288/.300 with a wRC+ of 61. He’s striking out at a 20.9% clip, walking just 4.8% of the time, and offers virtually no power with the lowest ISO among all qualified hitters this year. He hits the ball hard but into the ground far too often.

While the Pirates wanting to move on from Hayes as they look to build a more potent offense around a strong rotation led by Paul Skenes makes plenty of sense, it’s an open question whether or not the club will be able to find a taker on his services. A player with virtually no offensive value and a long-term guaranteed contract isn’t exactly an attractive trade asset, after all. Hayes’s glove at third base is elite, with an incredible +14 Outs Above Average this year, but a glove-only player at a corner position is still a questionable fit on most contenders.

The Cubs, Yankees, and Tigers have all been connected to Hayes in at least some capacity, but it’s a somewhat open question as to how serious that interest may actually be. The Cubs have rookie Matt Shaw currently installed at the hot corner, and while his 79 wRC+ has been disappointing, Hayes would actually be a downgrade for Chicago offensively. Colt Keith and Zach McKinstry have been handling third base for Detroit and have both been above-average offensive contributors this year, meaning Hayes would hardly be a clear upgrade for them either. Hayes would actually be a clear upgrade for the Yankees, as both Jorbit Vivas and Oswald Peraza are less valuable than him on both defense and offense. That said, the Yankees are known to have eyes on a number of other possible third base options like Eugenio Suarez and Ryan McMahon who are likely more attractive than Hayes.

That all makes it difficult to imagine the Pirates swinging a trade involving Hayes, but one thing working in the club’s favor is that Hiles suggesting that they’re “likely” to prioritize simply getting Hayes’s contract off their books in any deal. Perhaps a club that isn’t interested in parting with precious prospect capital that has some money to spare in the budget could then see Hayes as a viable option to improve their infield or bench mix who won’t cost them much of anything. With that said, Hayes’s contract would be quite expensive for a bench player, meaning it could be difficult to convince a club to take him on without the Pirates absorbing some salary unless the acquiring team believes in Hayes as a starter.

One possible solution could be attaching Hayes to a more attractive trade asset like Keller or Bednar, but doing so would likely force them to lower their asking price for that asset considerably. Even for a team with as low of a budget as Pittsburgh, lowering the trade value of a major piece just to save money in a salary dump would be a difficult pill to swallow for fans. And it may not even be an attractive proposition for a front office that clearly hopes to contend while Skenes is still in town and will need to acquire as much offensive talent as possible in order to make that happen. On the other hand, perhaps the $36MM guaranteed Hayes is due in 2026 and beyond could be reallocated to upgrading the offense via free agency. Just for an example, Paul Goldschmidt, Gleyber Torres, Austin Hays, and Mike Tauchman signed one-year deals for a combined $34MM in free agency this past winter and each would’ve represented a substantial upgrade to the Pirates’ offense.

What do MLBTR readers think is next for Hayes and the Pirates? Will Pittsburgh manage to trade Hayes? If so, will they be able to do so without eating significant salary or attaching him to another more valuable player? Or will Hayes still be in town on August 1? Have your say in the poll below:

Pirates Sign First-Round Pick Seth Hernandez

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The Pirates announced today that they have signed right-handed pitcher Seth Hernandez. They selected him with their first-round pick, sixth overall, at last week’s draft. Jim Callis of MLB.com reports that the signing bonus is $7.25MM, which is about $300K shy of the $7,558,600 slot value for the sixth overall pick. Callis notes it’s the highest bonus ever for a high school pitcher.

Heading into the draft, Hernandez was considered one of the top 25 guys available, though there was a wide range of opinions on exactly where to rank him among those top guys. Baseball America had him second overall, MLB Pipeline had him at #3, ESPN at #4, FanGraphs at #9, while Keith Law of The Athletic had him way down at #21.

All evaluators generally agree that there is ace potential here. Hernandez sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and can push triple digits. His changeup and curveball are considered great weapons. He has a slider which is inconsistent but could develop into another useful pitch in time. He also could have been a viable hitter/shortstop prospect, though his pitching potential is so strong that it’s agreed that he should be on the mound. The Bucs announced him as a right-handed pitcher, so that seems to be their thinking as well.

Law’s bearishness seems to be more about high school pitchers in general, as opposed to any specific criticism of Hernandez. “The history of high school pitchers taken in the first round is dismal, however, given their high attrition rates,” Law writes, “and as talented as Hernandez is, he’s still in that same category. There’s at least No. 2 starter upside here, but the risk of any high school arm is that they get hurt or don’t have the command and control to get to the majors.” Kiley McDaniel of ESPN mentions in his Hernandez blurb that some clubs will never take a prep righty with a top-ten pick.

On the more optimistic side of things, BA’s writeup says that Hernandez has the talent be ranked alongside recent prep picks like Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore and Jackson Jobe. In the 2017 draft, Greene and Gore went second and third overall, respectively. Both have now become strong major leaguers and arguable aces. Jobe went third overall in 2021 and still has a limited track record. He won’t be able to build on it anytime soon either, as he recently required Tommy John surgery. However, he had become one of the top pitching prospects in the sport prior to this year.

The Pirates haven’t done a great job developing hitters but their work with pitchers is stronger. Their rotation currently features homegrown pitchers Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Mike Burrows. If he weren’t currently recovering from surgery, Jared Jones would be in there as well. Bubba Chandler is one of the best pitching prospects right now and he’s pitching in the Triple-A rotation. Tom Harrington and Hunter Barco are also notable Pittsburgh draftees who are there in Indianapolis alongside Chandler.

Hernandez is still quite young, having just turned 19 less than a month ago. It will likely take him a few years but he naturally wants to follow that path. “He shoved yesterday,” Hernandez said of Skenes, per Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “and he’s probably going to shove for the rest of his life. If I could kind of follow his footsteps, that’d be great.”

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

Giants Have Shown Interest In Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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The Giants have reached out to the Pirates about infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He’s presumably just one of several options being considered by a San Francisco club that has a notable need at second base.

Kiner-Falefa, 30, is hitting .274/.318/.340 on the season. He’s been about 16% worse than average at the plate, by measure of wRC+, but has offered value with his legs (12-for-15 in stolen base attempts) and glove. He’s also a tough strikeout, fanning in just over 16% of his plate appearances.

Though Kiner-Falefa isn’t enjoying his best season at the plate, there’s a low bar to clear at second base in San Francisco. Giants second basemen have combined for a .217/.275/.309 slash on the season — one of the least-productive groups in all of baseball. Last year’s breakout infielder, Tyler Fitzgerald, has struggled badly at the position and was optioned to Triple-A in late June. None of Christian Koss, Casey Schmitt or Brett Wisely has provided more offense when manning the position, and Fitzgerald has slashed just .246/.323/.281 in 65 plate appearances since being sent down.

Kiner-Falefa is in the second season of a two-year, $15MM deal originally signed with the Blue Jays. Toronto traded him to Pittsburgh at last year’s deadline. He’s been the primary shortstop for the Bucs this year but has experience playing all over the diamond, including more than 1500 innings at third base and more than 550 innings both at second base and in the outfield. Kiner-Falefa’s defensive marks in the outfield and during a brief experiment behind the plate are poor, but he’s considered a strong infield defender.

Given his status as an impending free agent on a last-place team that’s one of the few clear sellers around the league, Kiner-Falefa feels all but certain to be traded in the next nine days. The Pirates don’t have a prospect who’s knocking down the door for everyday reps at shortstop, but they can use the final two months of the season to look at Cam Devanney (acquired last week from the Royals in exchange for Adam Frazier) or perhaps any other infielders they might acquire as they continue what feels like an interminable rebuilding process.

Blue Jays Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Blue Jays are among the teams to contact the Pirates about right-hander Mitch Keller, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re the latest in a growing number of clubs reported to have interest in the 29-year-old righty, who’s also drawn looks from the Yankees, Mets and Cubs. Keller is signed through the 2028 season.

Keller’s fit with the Blue Jays is natural in many ways. Toronto will see right-handers Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer reach free agency at season’s end, vacating two spots in the rotation. Kevin Gausman is signed for only one additional year and will be a free agent in the 2026-27 offseason. Right-hander Jose Berrios has an opt-out clause in his contract that allows him to reenter the free-agent market in the 2026-27 offseason as well. Fifth starter Eric Lauer, who’s been a godsend in Toronto after signing a minor league contract, is controllable via arbitration through 2026.

[Related: Toronto Blue Jays Trade Deadline Outlook]

Adding a steady arm like Keller, who’s in his prime and affordably signed for three additional seasons, has to hold appeal for the Blue Jays — particularly given the number of pitching injuries they’ve seen among their prospect class and other young arms in recent years.

Left-handers Ricky Tiedemann and Brandon Barriera and right-handers Jake Bloss, Landen Maroudis and T.J. Brock have all undergone UCL surgery within the past 15 months. Lefty Adam Macko had knee surgery in February and has been roughed up for 23 runs in 25 Triple-A innings upon returning. Former AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah is still on the mend from last year’s UCL procedure and is only controllable through the 2027 season. Bowden Francis has been unable to replicate last year’s late-season showing and has now been out more than a month due to a shoulder impingement.

The Jays still have some notable young arms. Right-handers Trey Yesavage and Khal Stephen, their top two picks in the 2024 draft, are enjoying strong years in their first full professional seasons, and several lower-level arms have made big strides in 2025 but might still be a few years away (e.g. 2022 19th rounder Gage Stanifer, 2020 international signee Kendry Rojas). On the whole, the pitching group has still been hit with a broad range of injuries.

Keller is being paid $15MM this season — just $500K less than the Jays paid to sign the 40-year-old Scherzer to a one-year deal in free agency this past offseason and the same amount secured by older starters Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb. Keller is then owed a combined $54.5MM from 2026-28. Added to the remainder of this year’s salary, Keller has almost exactly $60MM yet to be paid out for his three-plus seasons of club control. The Jays have $184MM on next year’s books, which is $70MM less than their current payroll level.

[Related: Pittsburgh Pirates Trade Deadline Outlook]

It’s an eminently affordable rate for a pitcher of Keller’s quality. While he’s not an ace, he’s a former second-round pick and top prospect who has blossomed into a steady mid-rotation arm and could be seen by some other clubs as a pitcher with a bit of yet-untapped potential. Several Pirates pitchers — Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Joe Musgrove, Clay Holmes among them — have found new gears upon being traded to other organizations over the years, after all, and Keller is also enjoying his most successful season to date.

Through 20 starts and 119 innings, Keller has pitched to a career-best 3.48 earned run average. His 18.7% strikeout rate is a career-low, but his 5.5% walk rate is a career-best. There are some red flags, as Keller’s 93.9 mph average fastball is down a half-mile compared to last year and down 1.3 mph from his 2023 levels, but his heater has slowly gained a bit of life as the season has worn on. He’s also allowing a bit more hard contact than usual and experiencing pretty good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball ratio; his 6.7% mark in that regard is well shy of the 11.8% he carried into the season.

Even with a bit of ERA regression, however, Keller would still be a solid value at his current price, and there’s always the chance that the change in scenery unlocks another gear as well. For a Jays club that could plausibly see every current member of its rotation come off the books by the end of the 2026 season, a July acquisition of Keller would not only fortify the current roster but also represent a bit of proactive shopping.

Toronto also has a number of near-MLB position prospects who could intrigue a Pirates team that’s bereft of quality young hitters — Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, RJ Schreck, Jonatan Clase and Will Wagner among them. Not all of those names are of the caliber to be a headliner in a Keller deal, and the Bucs won’t necessarily focus solely on young hitters in a trade, but the two parties align on a potential Keller swap in many ways.

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