Dodgers Rumors

Quick Hits: Harper, Miller, Mets, Yankees, Manaea, Athletics

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2018 at 11:03pm CDT

Bryce Harper caused some social media buzz after the free agent outfielder “liked” an Instagram post from MLB.com questioning whether the Dodgers were the favorites for Harper’s services. (NBC Sports Bay Area’s Dalton Johnson was among those who reported on the story.) It should be noted that the “like” came from Harper’s verified Instagram account and thus perhaps not necessarily from Harper himself if anyone else has access to Harper’s account. The “like” was also removed from the original post once the MLB.com account called attention to it in a follow-up posting. It could be a hint, it could be just a misclick, or it could be somewhere in between, though speculation continues to swirl around the possibility of Harper landing in Los Angeles.

In case Santa needs some reading material during his downtime tonight, here are some Christmas Eve items from around the baseball world…

Both the Yankees and Mets had interest in Andrew Miller, though neither New York team extended an actual offer to the free agent lefty, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino reports (via Twitter). “Durability concerns led them to back off,” Martino writes, as Miller was limited to just 34 innings in 2018 due to a 60-day DL stint with a knee injury, plus separate DL stints for less-serious shoulder and hamstring injuries. Despite those issues, Miller was still able to land a two-year deal from the Cardinals worth $25MM in guaranteed money, which could end up being something of a bargain for St. Louis if Miller is healthy and able to regain his past dominance. Both the Yankees and Mets are continuing to look for bullpen help, and the Mets have already made relief pitching a big focus of their winter business, acquiring Edwin Diaz and signing Jeurys Familia.
The Athletics are going “to be opportunistic and patient” in their search for starting pitching, Billy Beane told reporters (including the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea). Though Mike Fiers just re-signed with the team, more work is necessary to bolster a rotation that is loaded with inexperience and injury questions. Since the A’s can’t spend at the top of the pitching market, “waiting it out is probably the way we’re going to look at it,” Beane said, so the club will see if it can grab an arm or two once prices start to drop later in the offseason.
Beane also provided some news on Sean Manaea’s status, saying that the left-hander could be back in action “perhaps around the All-Star break.” This represents another positive development in Manaea’s timeline, as the young southpaw was initially projected to miss the entire 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September. Immediately after the procedure, however, manager Bob Melvin was cautiously optimistic that Manaea could return late in 2019. It’ll still be a while before we have a solid idea about how long Manaea will be out, and the Athletics are also sure to be as cautious as possible with the 26-year-old.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2018 at 8:20pm CDT

Managers and front office bosses are always doing their best to progress their teams forward, though this particular list of names could be feeling a bit more pressure this coming season, as 2019 is their final guaranteed year under contract.

As always when compiling this list, a pair of caveats should be noted. Firstly, several teams don’t publicize the lengths of management contracts, and some teams don’t even announce when new contracts have been finalized. It could very well be that at least some of the executives listed have already quietly reached extensions beyond the 2019 season, or there could be some other names with unknown contract terms who have 2019 as their end date.

Secondly, lack of an official contract doesn’t always mean that a manager or an executive is lacking in job security. Some clubs have unofficial handshake agreements in place with the skipper or GM/president of baseball operations, wherein the job is promised as theirs, with the specific contractual details to be hammered out at some point in the future. In the case of managers, specifically, many do prefer some type of public agreement, if for no other reason than to avoid being perceived as a “lame duck” who lacks authority within a clubhouse.

With a big tip of the cap to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for many of these details, here are the managers and executives who are believed to be entering their final seasons…

Angels: General manager Billy Eppler is three years into his original four-year contract to run the Halos’ front office, a term that has yet to result in a winning record. Much has been made about the Angels’ inability to build a contender around Mike Trout during the outfielder’s Cooperstown-level prime years, and time is running short in that regard, given that Trout can become a free agent the 2020 season. In Eppler’s defense, he has added quality pieces like Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, and Shohei Ohtani as GM, though he has been hampered by a seemingly endless list of pitching injuries, not to mention some payroll-albatross contracts (Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson, and the ongoing Albert Pujols deal) left over from the tenure of previous Angels GM Jerry Dipoto. Longtime manager Mike Scioscia had reportedly always had quite a bit of influence within the front office, though with Scioscia not returning, Eppler had the opportunity to make his own managerial hire in the form of Brad Ausmus. There hasn’t yet been any indication that Eppler could be in particular danger of not being extended, though it’s worth noting that neither of Eppler’s predecessors in the job (Dipoto and Tony Reagins) lasted more than four years.

Blue Jays: Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi noted in September that general manager Ross Atkins was likely to receive an extension, and that such a deal wasn’t likely to receive public acknowledgement. So, Atkins may already be locked up beyond the original end-date of his four-year deal prior to the 2016 season. Atkins and president Mark Shapiro have planted the seeds for a rebuild over the last two seasons, and with the Jays now in full-fledged retooling mode for at least one more year, it makes sense that Atkins would continue to hold the reigns as Toronto prepares for the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era.

Brewers: This one is a bit speculative, as terms of GM David Stearns’ original deal with the Brewers weren’t released, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported in October that “Stearns has at least one year left” under contract. Stearns was hired prior to the 2016 season, so a four- or five-year deal seems pretty standard for a new general manager, particularly one that was seemingly facing a rebuild upon taking the position. Needless to say, things are ahead of schedule in Milwaukee, as the Brewers were just a game away from the World Series last October. Even if Stearns’ deal runs through 2020 rather than just 2019, it seems likely that Brewers ownership will have some talks about an extension this offseason given Stearns’ immediate success.

Cubs: There has already been quite a bit of speculation about Joe Maddon’s future at Wrigley Field, as the Cubs aren’t planning to discuss a new contract with the manager. Though Maddon himself seems unperturbed about the situation and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein denied rumors of any hard feelings with his skipper, it does seem like a dugout change could be made unless the Cubs make another deep postseason run.

Diamondbacks: With two winning seasons and the 2017 NL Manager Of The Year Award on his resume in two years as manager, Torey Lovullo seems like a prime candidate for a new deal. Though Arizona is now moving into a semi-rebuilding phase, this actually seems closer to the situation Lovullo was expected to inherit when he initially took the job, before he led the D’Backs to their surprise postseason berth in 2017. I’d expect Lovullo to have an extension in hand by Opening Day at the latest.

Dodgers: Since president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman signed his five-year, $35MM deal to take over the Dodgers’ front office in October 2014, the club has extended its streak of NL West titles to six in a row, and finally got over the postseason hump to return to the World Series, capturing the NL pennant in each of the last two seasons. While the Comissioner’s Trophy has remained elusive, Friedman has managed to keep the Dodgers competitive even while cutting salaries, getting the team under the luxury tax threshold last season after payrolls touched the $300MM mark earlier this decade. This is probably another instance of an extension being just a matter of time, as the Guggenheim Baseball ownership group seemingly has every reason to want to keep Friedman in the fold for several years to come.

Giants: The leadership shakeup that installed Farhan Zaidi as the Giants’ new GM didn’t extend to the dugout, as longtime manager Bruce Bochy will return for the last year of his current contract and his 13th overall season in San Francisco’s dugout. Bochy turns 64 in April and he has dealt with heart issues in the past, leading to some whispers that he could move into retirement and hand the job over to a new manager. Longtime coaches Hensley Meulens and Ron Wotus have both been mentioned as possible managers-in-waiting, or Zaidi could prefer to hire a new face from outside the organization. It also wouldn’t be a shock to see Bochy stick around in 2020 or beyond, should he want to continue managing and he forms a solid relationship with Zaidi. Given Bochy’s championship-winning track record and the large amount of respect he holds within the organization, the possibility exists that he has already been promised the opportunity to end his tenure on his own terms.

Indians: General manager Mike Chernoff reportedly agreed to an extension with the team in November, though this is technically still an unknown situation since there wasn’t any official confirmation from either side. That said, since Cleveland is one of the organizations that generally stays quiet about contract details for management figures, we can probably consider this one a done deal. Chernoff was promoted to general manager in October 2015, so he could have been at the end of a three-year contract or the Tribe was getting an early jump on extending his four-year contract. It’s also worth noting that president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti signed an extension of indeterminate length back in 2013 and we haven’t heard any further contract news since, so Antonetti could also be approaching the end of a deal…unless he also signed an unreported extension at some point. It’s safe to assume that big changes aren’t in the offing for a team that has won three straight AL Central titles.

Marlins: “There are indications the Marlins would like to retain [Don] Mattingly beyond 2019,” MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro recently reported, though Mattingly said that he had yet to hear from the team about extension negotiations. Mattingly has managed the Fish through three tumultuous years in the organization’s history, and the fact that he is one of the few members of the Jeffrey Loria regime still in Miami could indeed be a sign that Derek Jeter and company have interest in keeping the veteran manager around to help mentor and develop young players during the franchise’s latest rebuild.

Red Sox: Principal owner John Henry recently noted that the team was “running out of time” in regards to an extension with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, whose five-year contract is up after the 2019 season. (Since Dombrowski was hired in August 2015, the deal can probably be more accurately described as 4.5 years in length.) Regardless of when the specific end-date may be, Dombrowski could hardly be in better position to land an extension in the aftermath of Boston’s World Series triumph.

Rockies: 2019 is the last guaranteed year of Bud Black’s contract as manager, though he has a bit of extra cushion since the Rockies hold a club option his services for 2020. Since Black has led Colorado to the postseason in each of his first two seasons as manager, it seems like he’ll at least get that option exercised to add a bit more security, plus the team is likely to discuss a longer-term deal as well.

Royals: GM Dayton Moore has often reiterated that manager Ned Yost will decide on his own when to step away from the dugout, though that won’t happen for at least one more year, as Yost agreed to a one-year extension last September. As Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman put it, however, there is “strong belief” that Yost won’t manage beyond 2019. The Royals’ recent hiring of Mike Matheny to a special advisor role could be another sign that the team already has a successor in place for the 2020 season.

MLBTR Poll: Who Won The Dodgers/Reds Trade?

By TC Zencka | December 24, 2018 at 12:27pm CDT

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds recently agreed to a seven-player trade that shook up the National League and set the rumor mill afire. In case you missed it, the deal sent the quartet of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, and Kyle Farmer, plus $7MM cash to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey and two prospects: Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, the Reds’ 13th and 8th ranked prospects, respectively, per Fangraphs. Reactions and analysis have landed on both sides of the ledger, though any subsequent transactions stemming from the payroll and roster changes on either side will give further cause for debate down the line.

The Reds have been vocal about upgrading no matter the cost this winter, especially for pitching, and while the additions were to presumably come via increased spending in free agency, here they explore a more creative means of adding talent. Having seen enough of Homer Bailey over the years, President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams put the $28MM owed Bailey to good use in acquiring three proven major league contributors. Under different circumstances, Williams might be praised for not handcuffing the team with future payroll obligations, but given that this deal feels in part driven by Cincinnati’s inability to attract major free agents, the one-year contracts of Puig, Kemp and Wood only highlights the lack of guaranteed long-term value in the return.

The primary critique here for the Reds is that they surrendered twelve total years of control in Downs and Gray, who slot in as the Dodgers’ new #7 and #16 ranked prospects, per MLB.com. The complete absence of guaranteed future value puts a lot of pressure on the team to capitalize in 2019, a real challenge coming off a 95-loss season. Should Puig, Kemp and Wood walk at the end of the year, they will have surrendered legitimate future talent for a trio that’s not likely to pull them from the depths of the NL Central. Even if the Reds do surprise this season and leapfrog the Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers, they still could lose this trio to free agency and be worse off for the future than they were before their acquisition.

On the other hand, attendance has waned at Great American Ballpark. Puig’s power and personality both ought to play well there and give fans something to root for. Further, if for instance, they’ve been unable to get much traction on this year’s crop of lefty free agent starters, then having a one year head start with Wood might be the best way to sign him long-term in Cincinnati. Prospects are high-risk assets, and it could be the Reds don’t believe the future value of Downs and Gray is all that high. Or, they might be banking on getting better prospect value in return at the trade deadline should the Reds fall out of contention early. There’s a lot of speculation above, but the fact is the Reds front office found a way to turn Homey Bailey into two exciting, productive players/trade chips (plus Matt Kemp).

For the Dodgers, they jettisoned 6 fWAR from their 2018 pennant winning team for $28MM in dead money and a pair of prospects. If they don’t turn around and use the cost savings in free agency, that’s a lot of talent to send away just so their billionaire owners can avoid paying the luxury tax. For all Puig’s antics, he brought real fire to the club, and in his six seasons with the team, not only did he accumulate 16.8 fWAR, but they won the NL West in each of those six seasons. As for Wood, one could argue there’s a lot of uncertainty around the lefties remaining in the Dodger rotation: Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu have not been fully healthy, Rich Hill, 38, is a full decade older than Wood and Julio Urias, 22, may be ready to step into the rotation, but after missing almost all of 2018, he’s far from a sure thing. Wood has his own injury history, but he is a proven asset when healthy, which he has been of late, and he carries a career 3.29 ERA (3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA). As the adage goes, you can never have enough pitching.

On the other hand, the Dodgers added two pretty decent prospects and slipped below the tax line (for now) while dealing from areas of depth. The outfield was log-jammed anyway with Kemp and Puig. Without them, there should be enough at bats to go around for Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger. Plus, top prospect Alex Verdugo, still only 22, may finally have the opportunity to shine at the big league level. As for the rotation, add Walker Buehler and Kenta Maeda to the names above and the Dodgers have enough top-of-the-line starting pitching to enter 2019 even if they decide to pocket the savings from this deal. Kemp and Puig were fun, but they were volatile on-field assets who were going to siphon at bats from the younger, higher upside outfielders (namely, Bellinger and Verdugo) already on the roster.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Bryce Harper. Heads were immediately sent spinning with the possibility of this move being a precursor to the Dodgers signing Harper in free agency, and what’s worse – that makes a lot of sense. They cleared payroll space and positional opportunity, in doing so creating the market/payroll/need fit that previously didn’t seem to exist for Harper. The White Sox and Phillies are ready to spend, but they likely can’t compete with a fully armed Los Angeles payroll. The Cubs are said to be watching, the Nationals haven’t given up on him in theory, and nobody believes the Yankees when they say they aren’t interested, which is, in-and-of-itself, a testament to how classic a suitor they really are.

This blockbuster has the makings of a touchstone moment that will, in part, define this winter’s dealings, but it’s time to see where MLBTR readers land on judging the returns. Does the flexibility this deal affords the Dodgers make them the winners? Or did the Reds take advantage of the Dodgers desire to shed some payroll and walk away with the better return? Let us know your Dodgers grade, your Reds grade, and who you think “won the deal” in this poll.

How Did The Dodgers Do?

B 33.25% (7,872 votes)

C 31.86% (7,542 votes)

A 17.35% (4,107 votes)

D 11.37% (2,692 votes)

F 6.18% (1,463 votes)

Total Votes: 23,676

How Did The Reds Do?

A 39.64% (9,491 votes)

B 36.19% (8,665 votes)

C 15.77% (3,777 votes)

D 5.54% (1,326 votes)

F 2.87% (687 votes)

Total Votes: 23,946

Who Won The Dodgers/Reds Trade?

Reds 45.19% (11,697 votes)

Win-Win 24.64% (6,378 votes)

Dodgers 18.49% (4,785 votes)

Bryce Harper 8.70% (2,253 votes)

Lose-Lose 2.98% (772 votes)

Total Votes: 25,885

Reaction & Analysis: The Dodgers/Reds Trade

By Mark Polishuk | December 23, 2018 at 8:04pm CDT

The Dodgers and Reds joined forces on a fascinating seven-player swap on Friday that saw Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, and $7MM in cash considerations go to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey and prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. With so many financial and on-field components to this trade, it isn’t any surprise that has been a lot of analysis surrounding what this means for both the Reds and Dodgers both in terms of the pieces involved in this specific deal, and in future moves both this winter and beyond. Here are some of the many takes on this noteworthy trade…

Immediately after news of the trade broke, the buzz was that the Dodgers’ latest round of “baseball money-laundering” (as one executive described it to ESPN’s Buster Olney) was a step towards a push for Bryce Harper. It remains to be seen if the Dodgers would really be willing to offer the decade-long, record-breaking contract that agent Scott Boras is demanding for his client, as such a move isn’t characteristic of Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. A shorter-term deal with a record-setting average annual salary likely wouldn’t appeal to Boras, Olney notes, but Harper himself could be open to such a deal if he is truly as eager to join the Dodgers as some reports have claimed.
The Dodgers also could have been paring their payroll not for Harper, but for targets in the 2019-20 offseason, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes. With Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, David Freese, and Bailey’s salary all coming off the books, Los Angeles will have $64MM to spend on free agents and trade targets next winter. Now that the team has finally gotten under the luxury tax threshold, the Dodgers might want to minimize their penalty by only taking a one-year hit next offseason rather than again surpass the threshold this winter (i.e. to sign Harper) and thus position themselves for a heftier repeater tax in a year’s time.
ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required) didn’t love the trade from the Reds’ perspective, writing that Cincinnati “got a little bit better, but perhaps not as much as they need to” in order to really contend for the postseason. Puig and Wood represent upgrades on paper, though both players come with their share of question marks, and Law argues that the Reds would benefit using Kemp solely as a backup while Jesse Winker gets everyday action in left left. Law provides some scouting info on Downs and Gray, and notes that the Reds got a lot of trade calls about Gray this offseason.
In contrast to Law, The Athletic’s Mo Egger (subscription required) calls the trade “a no-brainer” move for the Reds, arguing that the team benefits simply by gaining some productive MLB regulars for Bailey, who hasn’t been an effective pitcher for years due to injuries. While this trade alone won’t make the Reds into contenders, Egger feels more is yet to come this offseason, as Cincinnati still hasn’t made any big free agent signings or begun spending its promised extra payroll dollars.

Dodgers Seeking “Impact” Right-Handed Hitter

By Connor Byrne | December 22, 2018 at 8:07pm CDT

Los Angeles has been a speculative landing spot for left-handed slugger Bryce Harper this offseason, but the Dodgers are currently focused on improving their group of righty-swingers. After trading away right-handed regulars Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp on Friday, it’s “likely” the club will pick up “an impact right-handed bat,” Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes. To that end, the Dodgers are actively pursuing a trade for a right-handed catcher and/or second baseman, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets, while Morosi adds that they could land an outfielder.

As a result of the departures of Puig and Kemp – not to mention the potential exits of Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal and Brian Dozier in free agency – the Dodgers are currently sporting a lefty-heavy lineup. Their only projected starters who can hit from the right side are third baseman Justin Turner, infielder/outfielder Chris Taylor and catcher Austin Barnes, and the latter is coming off a miserable season at the plate. There’s certainly room for improvement, then, and as Morosi points out, the Dodgers have shown interest in a few established right-handed bats this offseason in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos and free-agent second baseman DJ LeMahieu.

In Realmuto’s case, no team has been able to satisfy the rebuilding Marlins enough to pry the coveted backstop out of Miami. Meanwhile, despite Castellanos’ well-known defensive shortcomings and his lack of long-term control (he’s arbitration eligible for just one more year, at a projected $11.9MM), the non-contending Tigers have placed a “high” asking price on him, Morosi tweets. And, stellar 2016 season aside, LeMahieu may be closer to a mediocre hitter than a game-changer – as shown by the longtime Rockie’s lack of power (49 home runs, .108 ISO) and unspectacular wRC+ (90) across 3,799 major league plate appearances.

In addition to Grandal, Realmuto, Castellanos and LeMahieu, Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli, Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez and free-agent center fielder A.J. Pollock were each connected to LA before it shipped Puig and Kemp out of town. Anyone from that group would help the Dodgers in their quest to upgrade their right-handed attack at positions of need.

Speculatively speaking, there may be plenty of other righty-capable possibilities on the Dodgers’ radar. At least some of White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, Mariners first baseman Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak, Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro, Padres corner outfielder/infielder Wil Myers and Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar (who’d perhaps make sense at first or in the outfield for the Dodgers) may be logical targets for the club via trade. There are fewer formidable options in free agency, on the other hand, though utilityman Marwin Gonzalez and second baseman Jed Lowrie – a pair of switch-hitters – stand out as potential fits for LA.

While the Dodgers hope to assemble a more balanced lineup, they may ultimately eschew that plan if it means signing Harper, Morosi suggests. As far as this winter’s free-agent class goes, it’s debatable whether Harper is superior to Machado – a fellow 26-year-old superstar who’s also verging on a historic contract. Considering their positions, though, it seems Harper is a better match for LA’s roster, and he reportedly wants to sign with the back-to-back National League champions.

Indians Still Discussing Potential Corey Kluber Trades

By Jeff Todd | December 22, 2018 at 6:31pm CDT

DEC. 22: The Dodgers remain in talks with the Indians regarding Kluber, Morosi reports. LA isn’t open to trading slugger Cody Bellinger for Kluber, though it’s “willing to discuss” young outfelder Alex Verdugo, per Morosi. Regardless, it’s unlikely a Kluber deal will come together with the Dodgers or anyone else prior to Christmas, Morosi tweets.

DEC. 19: The Indians are still holding discussions with rival organizations about star right-hander Corey Kluber, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). In particular, it seems the Reds are actively engaged with the Cleveland brass.

Needless to say, this isn’t the first we’ve heard of the Indians dangling a significant pitchers. Kluber and teammate Trevor Bauer have been in the rumor mill for much of the offseason.

Still, it’s significant to learn of ongoing talks, particularly since little has emerged on that front in the past weeks. The Indians’ strategy had been uncertain following a pair of contract-swapping moves — see here and here — that significantly reduced the team’s 2018 payroll. Easing the financial commitments, while staying ahead of an underwhelming pack in the AL Central, had been the seeming driving force behind the concept of dangling Kluber in the first place.

No doubt salary considerations will remain important, but the Indians surely have less pressure to pare costs. Parting with Kluber (or Bauer) will not be undertaken lightly. That explains the fact that, per Morosi, the Indians have asked about top Reds prospects Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammell in trade talks. Morosi himself had previously cast doubt on the possibility of a match between these clubs. The Reds, no doubt, are exceedingly hesitant to give up either of those two key young assets, though landing a controlled ace will necessarily sting.

A variety of other ballclubs remain engaged on Kluber, presumably. Morosi cites the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies as being “among the teams that have shown interest,” though it’s not clear whether that’s intended as an update on the current state of affairs or a glance back at the recent slate of rumors.

Reds Acquire Kemp, Puig & Wood From Dodgers For Homer Bailey, Prospects

By Jeff Todd | December 21, 2018 at 3:27pm CDT

The Dodgers and Reds have announced a long-rumored blockbuster that will shift around a variety of notable players. Veterans Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood are all heading to Cincinnati, along with catcher/infielder Kyle Farmer and $7MM. Meanwhile, righty Homer Bailey is going to Los Angeles, accompanied by young righty Josiah Gray and infielder Jeter Downs.

Financial factors obviously weigh heavily here. Kemp is earning $21.5MM in the final year of his contract, while Bailey is earning $23MM — in addition to a $5MM buyout on his 2020 mutual option. Bailey, though, only represents a $17.5MM hit for luxury tax purposes, while Kemp is a $20MM CBT piece. The Dodgers’ cash and luxury tax savings are boosted yet further by moving Puig and Wood, though certainly both of those players are positive-value assets, even as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project that Puig will earn $11.3MM while Wood will end up with a $9.0MM salary. Net it all out, and it seems that the Dodgers will take on $28MM in new obligations, plus the $7MM they’re covering of the old ones, while sending approximately $42MM to the Reds, who’ll end up taking on only ~$7MM in total new salary in the deal. In terms of the luxury tax, L.A. will trim its tabulation by around $16MM (as above, depending upon the final salaries for Wood and Puig), though obviously the actual tax savings will only be a percentage of that amount.*

Clearly, the Dodgers were willing to move on from a trio of useful, albeit expensive players in order to free up roster space and payroll flexibility while also picking up some worthwhile prospect assets. This is hardly the first deal of this kind from a Dodgers front office that is always working angles and contemplating large trade packages. Indeed, both Wood and Kemp came to the organization in other complex arrangements, the former as part of a 3-team, 13-player 2015 blockbuster and the latter in last winter’s tax-avoidance contract swap.

It’s hard not to look at this swap and think about what might be next for the Dodgers, who have now bumped two key corner outfield pieces from their ’19 plans. Clearly, the move opens the door to a potential run at Bryce Harper, though it hardly makes that anything approaching a certainty. Among other considerations, today’s move drops two of the club’s right-handed-hitting outfield pieces, moving lefties Alex Verdugo and Andrew Toles up the depth chart — for the time being, at least. Possibilities abound for the Dodgers, who’ll surely target both high-end assets and talented players who can function in more flexible roles as their winter continues to unfold.

On the Cincy side, the club certainly now has a better 2019 roster, though it’ll cost some near-term cash and (more importantly) some future value. Wood will slot into the rotation alongside the recently acquired Tanner Roark, who’s also a one-and-done asset. Puig and Kemp will presumably both enter the outfield mix along with left-handed hitters Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker.

Certainly, both Puig and Kemp will boost the Reds’ position-player unit. The former is a quality defender who has produced at about twenty percent above the league average rate at the plate over the past two years. In 444 plate appearances last year, he turned in a .267/.327/.494 slash with 23 long balls and 15 steals. Kemp cooled off after a momentous rebound to begin his second stint in Los Angeles, but still turned in 506 plate appearances of .290/.338/.481 hitting with 21 dingers over the course of the season. Kemp is likelier than Puig to function in more of a platoon role; in addition to his poorly regarded glovework, he’s about six years Puig’s senior at 34 years of age.

While Puig and Kemp are the best-known names in this deal, though, it’s certainly arguable that Wood was the key pick-up from the Reds’ perspective. The southpaw, who’ll soon turn 28, has steadily produced high-quality results ever since breaking into the bigs in 2013. Last year, he worked to a 3.68 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 151 2/3 innings.

There’s good reason to think the Reds will get quality output from Wood. In over eight hundred total MLB frames, he carries a 3.29 ERA with a 3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, and 3.66 SIERA. Though Wood has long been dogged by questions about his long-term health, given his decidedly unorthodox motion, he has topped 150 frames in four of the past five campaigns.

Farmer, meanwhile, hasn’t done much in limited MLB opportunities. But he has hit well in the upper minors in recent campaigns and will at least function as a cheap catching depth asset for the Reds.

All told, it’s plenty of bang for the seven million bucks the Reds are taking on here. It’s hard to imagine the team could have done more with that amount of cash. Of course, the return is mostly tied up in single-season assets, and picking up those near-term pieces will mean the sacrifice of some potential long-term value.

Downs was generally considered one of the ten best prospects on the Cincinnati farm, after all, with Gray not far behind him. Both players are top recent draft picks — Downs went 32nd overall in 2017; Gray was plucked in the second round in the 2018 draft — who have shown quite well in their first professional opportunities. Downs turned in a .257/.351/.402 slash with 13 home runs and 37 steals over 524 plate appearances last year at the Class A level, while Gray threw 52 1/3 innings of 2.58 ERA ball, with 10.1 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, in a dozen Rookie ball starts.

Bailey, meanwhile, is slated to function only as a vehicle for the rest of this deal. He’ll be cut loose by the Dodgers, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman confirms. Indeed, that seems to have been the reason he elected to waive his full no-trade rights. Bailey, who signed a big extension before the 2014 season that just did not work out for the Reds, has struggled since returning from a long bout with arm injuries. Presumably, he’ll be looking for a chance to compete in camp for a job with another organization.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links) first reported that the deal was nearing finalization and had the key pieces. Bob Nightengale of USA Today added the prospects on Twitter. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (on Twitter), Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) covered the remaining details.

*An earlier version of this post mistakenly tabulated the salaries to suggest the Dodgers were receiving, rather than sending, $7MM to the Reds. We regret the mistake.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers Sign Joe Kelly

By Mark Polishuk | December 21, 2018 at 1:27pm CDT

1:27pm: MLBTR has confirmed that the contract breaks down as follows: $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary in 2019, $8.5MM salary in 2020, $8.5MM salary in 2021 and a $4MM buyout on a $12MM option for the 2022 season. In total, the contract guarantees Kelly $25MM.

Dec. 21, 12:45pm: The Dodgers have formally announced the signing. They’ll need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move, though they’ve yet to announce what that will be.

Dec. 13: The Dodgers and free agent righty Joe Kelly are close to an agreement, according to Ken Rosenthal and Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). Kelly is set to receive a three-year deal worth around $25MM, as per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Kelly is represented by ACES.

The Dodgers received an up-close (and, at the time, unwelcome) look at Kelly’s ability during the World Series, when he tossed six shutout innings over five appearances to help Boston capture the championship. His work in the Fall Classic capped off an outstanding postseason for Kelly, who allowed just one earned run over 11 1/3 IP against the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees.

If last October represented Kelly at his best, the righty hasn’t always been able to consistently deliver on that potential throughout his career. Kelly posted a 4.39 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 2.13 K/BB rate over 65 2/3 innings in the regular season, and has had some issues avoiding walks over the last three seasons (4.6 BB/9 since 2016). His 9.2 K/9 over that same stretch is nothing to sneeze at, of course, though it still seems somewhat of an underwhelming total given the pure electricity in Kelly’s arm. He averaged 98.1 mph on his fastball last season, dropping just slightly from a 99 mph average in 2017.

Kelly is likely to fit into the setup role in the Dodgers’ bullpen, handling the eighth inning to set up closer Kenley Jansen. Given the amount of flexibility and potential starting arms that could see time in the pen, however, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Kelly brought into higher-leverage situations earlier in games.

Between Kelly joining the Dodgers and Jeurys Familia going to the Mets, we’re beginning to see some of the offseason’s top free agent setup men come off the board. MLBTR ranked Kelly 25th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agent, projecting him to land three years and $27MM (though we had the Anaheim native going to his hometown Angels, rather than the Los Angeles area’s other team).

Market Notes: Ross, Harper, Phillies, Realmuto, Minor

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | December 18, 2018 at 10:00am CDT

Long-time backstop David Ross has agreed to a new, multi-year deal to continue working as an analyst with ESPN. That news would seem to eliminate him from contention as a possible Cubs bench coach target, which is no surprise given recent indications. It would also appear to suggest that Ross won’t be looking to move into a dugout in the near future, though he’ll no doubt remain a popular candidate for significant gigs every time there’s an opening.

Let’s check in on the latest market notes …

The Dodgers’ interest in star free agent Bryce Harper remains a storyline to watch. The Los Angeles club doesn’t seem inclined to tantalize Harper with a record-setting overall guarantee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests (subscription link). Rather, the club would be more interested in a shorter-term pact with a “high” average annual value and multiple opt-out clauses along the way. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez heard largely the same late last week, while adding a few intriguing additional details. Harper “badly wants to be a Dodger,” says Gonzalez, but would have to sacrifice years and dollars in order to make that dream a reality. That also meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Buster Olney, wherein Olney suggested that a front-loaded deal with a huge annual value could be the most appealing scenario to Los Angeles. Details are understandably sparse at this point, but generally, it stands to reason that if Harper and agent Scott Boras were to consider anything shy of a record-setting contract in terms of overall value and/or length, they’d likely need to establish a new high-water mark in terms of AAV by a considerable margin. That doesn’t seem like something that Harper’s camp would consider until a ways down the line, however, as Boras & Co. are quite likely still locked in on a longer-term mega-deal. The timeline for Harper’s signing remains unclear at the moment.
Harper and Manny Machado will continue to fascinate until they sign, but with both still holding in-person meetings it could take a while for that to come together. What that may mean for the Phillies is worth pondering, as the organization has its sights set on significant improvements in multiple areas. Club president Andy MacPhail says there’s still ongoing interest in both stars, but also notes “there are a lot of different ways to improve,” as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Citing a need to “give yourself enough latitude to deal with each offseason as it comes,” MacPhail certainly struck a somewhat different tone than owner John Middleton did recently. In part, he sought to emphasize the more restrained elements of Middleton’s comments — particularly, those indicating that the club does not feel it must land Harper and/or Machado to have had a productive offseason.
The Astros are “back in the mix” for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (via Twitter). It’s fair to wonder whether the Houston club was ever really fully out of the hunt. The club did add Robinson Chirinos and still has Max Stassi on hand, but that combination surely isn’t sufficient to sap the ’Stros’ interest in the top catcher in the game. Perhaps it’s not out of the question that the club would consider carrying three catchers if they swing a blockbuster, with Realmuto perhaps representing an option in the DH/first base mix and Chirinos also providing a potent bench bat against left-handed pitching (.258/.353/.485 career slash). Whatever the plan would be, the Astros first need to land Realmuto. As Frisaro hints, the club’s reported deal with Michael Brantley could be seen as an indication that top prospect Kyle Tucker — who’d surely be of keen interest to the Fish — might just be available. Of course, as Frisaro also notes, a variety of other teams remain in pursuit of Realmuto at this stage.
The Brewers nearly struck a deal with the Rangers for Mike Minor, Rosenthal further reports (subscription link), though it’s largely unclear what shape such an agreement would have taken and whether talks are still open. For Milwaukee, the connection makes clear that boosting the pitching mix remains a goal of the offseason. The organization has quite a few solid pieces in place, many of which could be utilized as needed in the rotation, in the bullpen, or as minor-league depth. Minor would certainly fit that general mold, as he has shown the ability to function as a high-quality reliever or solid back-of-the-rotation starter in recent years. It’s notable that the Texas org seems to be batting around multiple trade scenarios on the lefty, even in a winter in which they have taken further risks on other veteran hurlers.

Quick Hits: Kikuchi, Grandal, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Puig

By Mark Polishuk | December 16, 2018 at 11:56pm CDT

Yusei Kikuchi is on his way to Los Angeles to begin his meetings with prospective MLB teams. The Japanese southpaw told Sports Nippon (hat tip to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times) that he hasn’t received any official offers from Major League teams, and he didn’t give away any hints about preferred decisions — Kikuchi only answered “of course” when asked if he was open to joining any of the 30 big league clubs. The 30-day posting window for teams to negotiate with Kikuchi opened on December 4, and representatives from a wide array of teams are expected to make their pitches to Kikuchi in L.A.

Headlines

Dodgers Rumors

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect