Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

By | at

After three losing seasons, the Blue Jays both topped the .500 mark and returned to the playoffs in 2020.  Now that the corner has seemingly been turned on the team’s rebuild, could a full-fledged push towards contention be on the way?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

A 32-28 record under the wholly unique circumstances of the 2020 season doesn’t exactly mean that the Jays can suddenly start thinking about the World Series.  That said, this year’s results were definitely a positive development, and indicative of this roster’s potential — so much of the team’s young core is either still early in their MLB careers or not even in the majors yet, but the Blue Jays have already shown that they’re able to win.

It makes for a potentially fascinating offseason in Toronto, especially considering that the Jays might be one of the few teams who could have the ability to spend.  More will be known on this front once Jays management meets with the Rogers Communications ownership group for a budget meeting later this month, but on paper, the Blue Jays would seem to have some extra payroll capacity.  The team has roughly $81.25MM in committed salary for 2021, and less than $37MM on the books in both 2022 and 2023, with only three players (Hyun Jin Ryu, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) under contract beyond the coming season.

Since the Jays came into 2020 with a pre-pandemic payroll of around $93.2MM, there is some room for GM Ross Atkins to maneuver even if ownership doesn’t okay much or any new spending.  The club already carved out some extra space by declining Chase Anderson’s $9.5MM club option, and Travis Shaw’s projected arbitration salary makes him a non-tender candidate given his lack of production last season.

Is another Ryu-esque signing in the cards?  Atkins didn’t rule out the possibility, telling reporters last month that “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.”  While Toronto is far from being the proverbial “one player away” from a championship, it seems plausible that the Jays could try to duplicate their 2019-20 offseason by making one big-ticket acquisition and then a few other, more moderately-priced pickups.

Pitching is the most obvious need for a club whose rotation was in flux for much of the season.  Ryu and Tanner Roark were the only real constants, though Roark struggled in his first season in Toronto and now figures to slot into the back of the rotation.  Ross Stripling also didn’t pitch well as a Blue Jay after being acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, though after years of being shifted in and out of the Los Angeles rotation, Stripling should get a clear-cut chance at being a full-time starting pitcher in 2021.  Nate Pearson battled some elbow problems and tossed only 18 innings in his rookie season, so while his prospect ceiling is very high, he can’t yet be counted upon as a front-of-the-rotation type.

Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, and other young arms are on hand to compete for a starting job or provide depth, but adding certainly one and potentially two experienced starters would go a long way towards solidifying the starting staff.  Reunions with free agents Taijuan Walker, Matt Shoemaker, Anderson, and Robbie Ray will be considered, with Walker likely to receive the most attention from other teams given how well he pitched in 2020, particularly after joining the Blue Jays after the trade deadline.

Walker did speak quite highly of his time with the Jays, noting that “they did such a great job of making us comfortable in Buffalo.”  This could be an underrated factor in the team’s offseason planning, as pitchers like Walker or the other Jays free agents could be prioritized since they’re already familiar with conditions at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.  A decision on whether or not the Blue Jays will be able to play in Toronto in 2021 likely won’t be known for at least a few months, so external free agents might be wary of potentially spending a year at a hitter-friendly minor league ballpark.

Then again, that might be just the kind of thing that would appeal to an unconventional free agent like Trevor Bauer.  Atkins and Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro were part of the Cleveland front office that brought Bauer to the Indians back in December 2012, and while landing Bauer would be much more costly this time around, Bauer’s stated openness to shorter-term or even one-year contracts could make him a particular fit for the Jays.  Such a contract would keep Bauer in the fold during the window of Ryu’s prime and still give the Blue Jays future payroll flexibility, while also allowing more time for Pearson, Kay, or Simeon Woods Richardson to develop.

Whether the Blue Jays are prepared to make quite that big a splash in pursuing Bauer remains to be seen, though given how aggressively the team went after pitching last offseason, it can’t be ruled out.  If the Jays are allowed to stretch their payroll, that gives them a leg up on virtually every other team in baseball in this post-pandemic offseason, and puts Toronto in play for conceivably any free agent.  A case can be made for the Jays to pursue the likes of Bauer, J.T. Realmuto or (as MLBTR did in our Top 50 Free Agents list) DJ LeMahieu, or perhaps rather than shop in the upper tier of the market, the Blue Jays could spread their money around in the second tier.  If Bauer is to command upwards of $30MM in average annual value, that $30MM+ could also cover, say, Walker and Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation and Justin Turner at third base.

Besides free agents, the Jays could also look to acquire talent in a trade, especially if rival teams are more willing to unload quality players in the name of cost-cutting.  Beyond just the obvious Cleveland connection with Shapiro and Atkins, Francisco Lindor is a player that would make some sense for the Jays, particularly since they have looked into acquiring him in the past.  The Indians would certainly have a high asking price for even one year of Lindor, yet considering salary concerns just led the Tribe to cut ties with a valuable player in Brad Hand, getting Lindor’s salary off the books might be a bigger concern for Cleveland than fully maximizing a trade return.

Installing Lindor at shortstop for a year also solves the third base question, assuming Shaw is non-tendered — Bo Bichette would be moved off shortstop to play either third or second base, with Cavan Biggio handling the other position.  Acquiring a position player on a shorter-term deal might be the optimal move for a Jays team that has Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans in the prospect pipeline, and seems mostly set around the diamond in the present.  The core of Gurriel, Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield, Danny Jansen behind the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez as the first base/DH duo, Bichette at shortstop and Biggio at second base (or multiple positions) is solid from an offensive standpoint, but the Jays were one of the league’s weaker defensive teams.

Inserting a premium defender like Andrelton Simmons or Kolten Wong into the one open infield spot would certainly help in this regard, though if the Blue Jays wanted to go bigger, they could explore trading Grichuk or Tellez.  Such moves would allow for the acquisition of a more traditional center fielder to patrol the outfield, or free up the DH spot so the Jays could keep some of their lesser defenders in the lineup.

As they did last offseason, it seems likely that the Jays will continue to target multi-position players, in order to upgrade a bench that didn’t provide much help when injuries arose during the season.  Biggio is developing nicely as a super-utilityman, but getting another reliable player who can play several positions could be another path towards helping the defense, at least in a late-game capacity.

The Jays haven’t traditionally spent much on relief pitching under Atkins, and that strategy might continue this winter even though the bullpen didn’t post good numbers in 2020.  Toronto relievers were asked to throw a lot of innings in support of the shaky rotation, so things could stabilize simply with a more normal workload, plus several good young arms (i.e. Jordan Romano, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather) delivered strong results.

It’s possible the Jays don’t have a traditional closer at all next season, or if they do, Romano or Rafael Dolis could get more consideration than an external pitcher.  But since the Jays will presumably look to add at least one veteran reliever, they could check into pitchers with past closing experience.  As the Indians’ decision to decline Hand’s option might indicate, this could be a particularly volatile market for relief pitching, leaving the Blue Jays with many opportunities to acquire a significant bullpen piece at perhaps something of a bargain price.

There is no shortage of possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, making a team to watch both this winter and in 2021, when the young cornerstones and (presumably) some new additions could gather to again make the Jays postseason factors.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

By | at

The Orioles briefly flirted with Wild Card contention in this year’s greatly expanded playoff format, but the O’s ultimately finished out the year at 25-35 with a -20 run differential. GM Mike Elias will head into his third offseason on the job still squarely in a rebuild, which should make for a pretty quiet winter in Baltimore.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Baltimore’s offseason kicks off with what looks to be a relatively straightforward decision on 30-year-old shortstop Jose Iglesias’ club option. Iglesias was hampered by a quadriceps injury that limited him to 160 innings of defense, but he also posted an outrageous .373/.400/.556 slash in 150 trips to the plate. Granted, it was fueled largely by a .407 BABIP that isn’t repeatable, but Iglesias did make some gains in exit velocity and hard-hit rate as well. Assuming the quad is healthy next year, this is an affordable price tag on a singles hitter who rarely strikes out and is typically an excellent defender.

The extent to which the Orioles will be active after that is tough to gauge, but major moves shouldn’t be expected. The Orioles, under Elias, have signed just three players to Major League deals: Iglesias, Nate Karns and Kohl Stewart. Both Karns and Stewart inked split contracts that did not come with full guarantees in the big leagues.

We’re entering the third year of the Elias rebuild, but the O’s are still staring up at a powerhouse Rays club, the perennially contending Yankees, an emerging young Blue Jays team and a Red Sox club that will get some crucial names back in 2021 (Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez among them). The O’s aren’t just a couple of savvy free-agent signings away from competing against this group.

Of course, the O’s hope to get an important piece back themselves in the form of slugger Trey Mancini. The 28-year-old was Baltimore’s best hitter and arguably best all-around player in 2019, but he missed the 2020 season after revealing back in March that he had been diagnosed with colon cancer. Mancini underwent surgery to remove a malignant tumor, but Elias said last month that the organization is hopeful he’ll be ready to rejoin the club in Spring Training. It’d be a boon for the clubhouse and lineup alike, as a Mancini return would start the season off on a feel-good note and give manager Brandon Hyde a heart-of-the-order hitter who raked at a .291/.364/.535 clip when last healthy.

Mancini would give the Orioles an option at first base, designated hitter or in either outfield corner, although he’s best-suited to play first (career -17 DRS in the outfield). That’d push Chris Davis — more on him later — to designated hitter but still leave the Orioles with some possible areas for addition around the diamond.

In 2020, the O’s relied primarily on Hanser Alberto and Rio Ruiz at second base and third base, respectively. Alberto was one of the club’s best hitters for much of the season before a disastrous final 15 games torpedoed his batting line. Ruiz, meanwhile, slugged nine homers but hit just .222 with a .286 on-base percentage. Both players look to lack ceiling at the plate; Alberto has hit for average in Baltimore but lacks power, while Ruiz has pop but minimal on-base skills.

It’s at least plausible that the Orioles would consider non-tendering Alberto — particularly given what should be a rather flooded second base market. Ruiz doesn’t seem like a sure thing to survive the winter on the 40-man roster, having given the O’s a .229/.299/.393 slash (82 wRC+) through 617 plate appearances over the past two seasons. The Orioles could give Renato Nunez another look at the hot corner, but he’s viewed as a poor defender.

Given that lackluster set of options at second and third base, it’s not particularly surprising that Elias has already spoken of a desire to bolster his infield depth. In his end-of-season chat with reporters, Elias noted a lack of infield depth in the organization when he took over, attributing it to the team’s prior aversion to signing international amateur free agents. While the GM said it’s been an area of focus since he took the reins and offered optimism that the pipeline is improving, he also called infield depth “one of those areas where everyone is always looking for more” (link  via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko).

The Orioles aren’t going to go wild and sign a top free agent like DJ LeMahieu, but there should be some solid veterans available on more affordable deals. They’ve already been there, done that with Jonathan Villar and Jonathan Schoop — not that a reunion is impossible — but someone like Cesar Hernandez, Jedd Gyorko, or Marwin Gonzalez (whom Elias knows from his Astros days) would give them some cover.

It’s also at least worth pondering whether the Orioles will take a more significant plunge on a unique market entrant: Korean shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. The Kiwoom Heroes star will be posted for MLB clubs this winter, and he’ll play next season at just 25 years of age. Even when the O’s were inexplicably dormant on the Latin American market for international talent, they had a strong presence in both NPB and the KBO.

Bringing Kim into the mix would ostensibly align with the timeline of their rebuild, and he’s capable of playing each of shortstop, second base and third base. We’re expecting a pretty substantial contract for Kim — four to five years in length at something in the $7-9MM annual range — so it’d be a notable departure from the dearth of free-agent spending under Elias. That said, Kim’s age and versatility both match up with the Orioles’ long-term organizational needs. Signing Kim is akin to signing a Top 100 prospect who can be plugged directly onto the big league roster. Some contenders may prefer players who are proven against MLB pitching, but the Orioles could certainly withstand the risk that Kim faces a prolonged adjustment period.

Beyond the infield, the lineup should mostly be set. Ryan Mountcastle exploded onto the scene with a .333/.386/.492 showing through his first 140 MLB plate appearances. He’s locked down one corner outfield slot, with the other surely set aside for Anthony Santander, who hit .261/.315/.575 with 11 big flies, 13 doubles and a triple in 165 plate appearances. Austin Hays is the favorite in center field thanks to a .289/.344/.458 output dating back to 2019 (209 total plate appearances), and Cedric Mullins gives them a solid alternative.

Behind the plate, Chance Sisco and Pedro Severino form a respectable platoon, but they’re both placeholders for 2019 No. 1 overall pick Adley Rutschman. Sisco strikes out too much but draws plenty of walks and has shown some pop. Severino had a rough 43 plate appearances against lefties in 2020 but has generally handled them well in his career.

At designated hitter, the Orioles will be left to ponder what to do with the remaining portion of the aforementioned Davis and his contract. Nunez gives them another option there as well, having belted 43 homers dating back to 2019 but providing minimal defensive value at the infield corners. There’s been speculation about releasing Davis for years now, and perhaps that outcome is simply inevitable, but the O’s will likely wait to see how he looks in Spring Training and also to determine whether they’ll have Mancini available before making such a drastic move.

It’s also not a lock that Nunez will be tendered a contract. For all the power he’s shown in the past two seasons, his overall .247/.314/.469 slash translates to a 104 wRC+ and 106 OPS+ due to his questionable on-base skills and the leaguewide home run boom. Paired with his defensive shortcomings, Nunez has been worth less than one WAR per both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference in 2019-20 combined.

On the pitching side of the equation, the Orioles have vacancies in both the rotation and bullpen, which should allow them to be opportunistic in signing some veteran free agents. They seemed to prioritize price over upside last winter when bringing in Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc on non-guaranteed deals, but it’s possible they’ll be able to get some arms with higher ceilings to concede to minor league pacts or low-base, incentive-laden one-year deals this time around. There’s something to be said for leaving the door open for in-house options to seize opportunities, but there are so many holes on this pitching staff that it’d be surprising if the front office didn’t bring in some fresh faces.

A potential trade involving Cobb would create another opening and also serve to pare back the payroll. No one is going to take Cobb’s entire $15MM salary, but he did bounce back from an injury-ruined 2019 season to make 10 starts of 4.30 ERA ball in 2020. Cobb looks mostly like an innings-eating fourth/fifth starter at this point, so there won’t be a long line to acquire him, but if the O’s were to absorb 75 percent of his salary or take on another undesirable contract in return, perhaps something could be worked out. At the very least, Cobb’s healthy showing and respectable results moved him off the borderline-untradeable status he held this time last year.

Overall, the Orioles simply aren’t in a position to spend much money or part with young players to add veteran upgrades to their roster. A player like Kim or a younger non-tender who still has some prime years and team control remaining would make sense as an upside play. One-year deals and minor league pacts for veterans with a bit of name value are likely on the docket, but the O’s lack both obvious trade candidates on the big league roster and motivation to make splashy moves for veteran players. The 2021 season will likely be another year dedicated to shaping a sustainable core of players with an eye toward better results in 2022-23.

2020-21 MLB Free Agents

By | at

Below is our list of current free agents for the 2020-21 offseason.  Numbers in parentheses represent the age at which the player will play the 2021 season.

If you see any notable errors or omissions, please contact us.  The cutoffs for the list this winter are 25 plate appearances or 10 innings pitched in the Majors in 2020.

For information on the free agents who have already signed, use our free agent tracker tool.

Updated 3-16-21

Catchers

Tyler Flowers (35)
Rene Rivera (37)
Matt Wieters (35)

First Basemen

Matt Adams (32)
Logan Morrison (33)

Second Basemen

Daniel Descalso (34)
Logan Forsythe (34)
Addison Russell (27)
Neil Walker (35)

Shortstops

Addison Russell (27)

Third Basemen

Zack Cozart (35)
Jedd Gyorko (32)

Left Fielders

Jorge Bonifacio (27)

Center Fielders

None

Right Fielders

Jorge Bonifacio (27)
Ryan Braun (37)
Yasiel Puig (30)
Josh Reddick (34)

Designated Hitters

Matt Adams (32)
Ryan Braun (37)
Yoenis Cespedes (35)
Edwin Encarnacion (38)
Matt Kemp (36)
Logan Morrison (33)

Starting Pitchers

Homer Bailey (35)
Zack Godley (31)
Cole Hamels (37)
Mike Leake (33)
Rick Porcello (32)
Jeff Samardzija (36)
Anibal Sanchez (37)

Right-Handed Relievers

Shane Greene (32)
Juan Nicasio (34)
Roberto Osuna (26)
Brad Peacock (33)
AJ Ramos (34)
David Robertson (36)
Tyler Thornburg (32)
Edinson Volquez (37)

Left-Handed Relievers

None

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

By | at

For the second straight year, the Cardinals overcame a lackluster offense to reach the postseason, though 2020 also saw the club emerge from a widespread COVID-19 outbreak.  St. Louis now faces some tough decisions on veteran cornerstones, while also figuring out how to make further needed upgrades despite a potential lack of payroll flexibility.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $103.5MM through 2024
  • Miles Mikolas, SP: $51.75MM through 2023
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $21MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024; Cards also have $15MM club option for 2025 with $1MM buyout)
  • Matt Carpenter, IF: $20.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $18.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)
  • Dexter Fowler, OF: $16.5MM through 2021
  • Carlos Martinez, SP: $12MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $17MM club option for 2022; Cards also have $18MM club option for 2023 with $500K buyout)
  • Andrew Miller, RP: $12MM through 2021 (club option vested into a guaranteed deal)
  • Kwang Hyun Kim, SP: $4MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $12.5MM club option for 2021 ($1MM buyout)

Free Agents

On the plus side of the payroll equation, the Cardinals don’t have a big arbitration class, and they have quite a few major contributors who are either just becoming arb-eligible or are still in their pre-arb years.  The released Brett Cecil’s contract will come off the books and the Yadier Molina/Adam Wainwright free agent duo represents $25MM in salary, so the Cards could have some money to play with this winter.

The question is, however, whether these savings will be reinvested into payroll.  While St. Louis has a lot of inexpensive players, it also has almost $110MM committed to eight players for 2021 (that isn’t counting Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM club option, which we’ll cover later).  Like every other team in baseball, the Cardinals are dealing with revenue losses and will be looking to make at least some cutbacks whenever feasible.  That said, this is also a veteran win-now team, so the Cards will still be looking to contend.

It leaves president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch with a difficult offseason ahead of them, in part because the 2020 Cardinals are a particularly hard team to evaluate.  The coronavirus outbreak affected multiple members of the roster and kept the entire team sidelined for over two weeks, only adding to the stop-start nature of an already abbreviated season.  A case can be made that the front office could try to run it back with mostly the same core group, yet the Cardinals have enough weak points that some changes definitely need to be made.

Molina was one of the COVID-19 positive Cardinals, and the longtime catcher simply never got on track, hitting .262/.303/.359 over 156 plate appearances.  That makes it consecutive seasons of subpar offensive production for Molina, but he is still looking for a two-year contract that would take him past his 40th birthday.  Letting Molina go would open the door for noted prospect Andrew Knizner to assume at least a share of everyday duties (maybe alongside a veteran such as a re-signed Matt Wieters), and yet are the Cards willing to let a franchise icon depart?

Wainwright represents perhaps a slightly easier decision, as the 39-year-old was still a very effective player last season.  Statcast metrics didn’t love his performance, but Wainwright still posted a 3.15 ERA, 3.60 K/BB rate, and 7.4 K/9 over a team-high 65 2/3 innings.  Even with a big decline over a fuller season of work, Wainwright still looks like he has something to offer a team, so the question now becomes whether or not the Cardinals could be that team.  Wainwright has said he wants to stay in St. Louis but hinted that his fate could potentially be linked to wherever Molina ends up.

Re-signing Wainwright to something close to the one-year, $5MM contract (plus several incentives) that he inked last year would seem like a logical move for the Cardinals, who head into 2021 with some question marks on the pitching staff.  Nominal ace Jack Flaherty struggled in 2020, Carlos Martinez battled a severe case of COVID-19 and then suffered a late-season oblique strain, and Miles Mikolas’ status for the start of next season isn’t yet known after the righty underwent flexor tendon surgery in late July.  On top of that, Dakota Hudson will almost certainly miss all of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September.

A lower-tier move like a reunion with Wainwright might be all the attention the Cards focus on their rotation, since they still have some solid in-house depth.  Kwang Hyun Kim proved to be a real find last winter, and the South Korean left-hander solidified his spot in next year’s starting five following an outstanding rookie season.  Beyond Kim and Flaherty, the Cardinals also have Daniel Ponce de Leon, Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, and Austin Gomber to pick up starts, and top prospect Matthew Liberatore could also potentially work his way into the conversation.

There’s also oft-injured Alex Reyes, who stayed healthy (apart from an asymptomatic case of COVID-19) and pitched well in a relief capacity.  St. Louis could opt to just keep Reyes in the bullpen to avoid any further injury concerns, and the same logic could also extend to Martinez, who was returning to starting pitching in 2020 after an impressive season and a half working as a reliever.  Depending on Martinez’s health situation and the overall state of the rotation, returning Martinez to the closer role (or maybe situational closer duties shared with Reyes) could be a canny way of bolstering an already solid relief corps.  Jordan Hicks also figures to be in the ninth-inning mix, though his status is somewhat up in the air after he opted out of the 2020 season due to health concerns and a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery in June 2019.

The Cardinals’ ability to deliver consistent pitching and quality defense made them a playoff team, though that path would be much easier with any sort of regular help from the lineup.  Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t quite a one-man hit squad in 2020, as St. Louis got an unexpectedly big contribution from utilityman Brad Miller and center fielder Harrison Bader at least crushed left-handed pitching, even if his splits against righties were mediocre.

Goldschmidt is obviously a cornerstone player, and the Cards would be pleased with Bader as an everyday player (with some platoon possibility) if he continues to mash lefties and provide solid center field defense, though Bader’s glovework dropped from excellent in 2018-19 to merely good in 2020.  Beyond those two, however, the Cardinals will go into next season unsure of whether or not Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, or Dexter Fowler can turn things around at the plate.

DeJong’s struggles could be explained by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, though Carpenter has had two straight subpar seasons and Fowler has been hit-and-miss for much of his St. Louis tenure.  On top of that, Tommy Edman followed up his strong 2019 rookie year with an underwhelming second season, so it remains to be seen if Edman just had a sophomore slump (on top of everything else in 2020) or if he can adjust and become a regular contributor within the infield.

For now, the Cardinals’ infield picture lines up as Goldschmidt at first base, DeJong at shortstop, Carpenter at third base, and Edman as the nominal second baseman until a decision is made on Wong.  Though Wong hit only .265/.350/.326 over 208 PA last season, the Cards know what they have in the Hawaii native — roughly average offensive production (a 99 wRC+ and 98 OPS+ from 2015-20) and an often spectacular second base glove.  In a normal offseason, exercising that $12.5MM club option would seem like a relatively easy call for St. Louis, but the team is thought to be exploring a contract extension with Wong that would lower his salary for the 2021 season but give him more long-term security.

If an extension can’t be reached, could St. Louis consider simply declining Wong’s option?  It seems a little unlikely, given Wong’s obvious value to both the Cardinals and other teams, yet the possibility can’t be ruled out if the Cardinals are lacking in payroll wiggle room.  The Cards might have some confidence they could get Wong to re-sign at a lower price tag, but a number of second-base needy teams (i.e. the Athletics, Indians, Yankees, Rockies, Phillies, Angels, Cubs, and probably others) would provide a lot of competition for Wong’s services.

With Carpenter a question mark, St. Louis will probably look for more infield depth beyond Edman, and re-signing Miller would certainly seem feasible given how well he played last season.  Miller has quietly hit .247/.343/.510 with 20 home runs over 341 PA since the start of the 2019 season, with much of that production coming against right-handed pitching.  Signing a player of Miller’s ilk will become even more of a need if the National League again has the DH for 2021, as Miller instantly provided the Cardinals with some pop from the new position.

That leaves the outfield, a big problem area in 2020 that nonetheless has hope for improvement.  St. Louis outfielders combined for an 82 wRC+ in 2020 (the sixth-lowest total of any team), but Bader did hit lefties well, and star prospect Dylan Carlson seemed to turn a corner in mid-September after being recalled from a demotion to the alternate training site.  The Cardinals likely have Bader and Carlson penciled in for two outfield spots, or perhaps 1.5 spots if Carlson plays center field on days when the Cards face a right-handed starter.

That puts no small amount of pressure on a 22-year-old, of course, and it would help the Cardinals immensely if they could count on anything from Fowler, Tyler O’Neill or Lane Thomas.  COVID-19 limited Thomas to only 18 games, so there is some expectation that he can rebound as at least a part-time outfield option if healthy.  O’Neill is only 25 and not far removed from being a top prospect, but he has yet to translate his hitting potential into big league numbers.

This much wait-and-see is risky for a team hoping to win in 2021, so if St. Louis makes any sort of notable addition this winter, the outfield is the logical landing spot.  As much as trading Randy Arozarena might still weigh heavily on the front office’s mind, the Cardinals could shop O’Neill, Thomas, or Bader for a more proven veteran bat.  With only one year left on his contract, Fowler might also be moveable in a bad-contract swap or if the Cards are willing to eat some money.  If the trade market isn’t the preferred route, the Cardinals could look at free agents, whether it’s pure outfielders like Joc Pederson, or perhaps multi-position types like Jurickson Profar or Enrique Hernandez that could help in both the outfield and infield.

There’s probably bound to again be speculation about the Cards trying to swing a bigger-ticket trade like their acquisition of Goldschmidt two offseasons ago, or their rumored interest in Nolan Arenado last winter.  But, if payroll concerns were an obstacle to an Arenado trade last year, a deal seems even more unlikely now in the pandemic’s wake.

It’s easy to imagine either a pretty quiet or a pretty busy offseason for the Cardinals, depending on how much change they feel is necessary.  After all, this is a club that has been to the postseason in consecutive years, albeit via the expanded playoff field in 2020.  The potential departures of Molina and Wainwright have more than just symbolic importance, as the Cards would be left with two more areas of need on a roster that is lacking in sure things.

The A’s Have Some Tough Qualifying Offer Decisions

By | at

Heading into the 2020 season, A’s shortstop Marcus Semien appeared poised to become one of the market’s top free agents. Then 29 years of age, Semien was fresh off an MVP-caliber 2019 campaign fueled by a breakout at the plate and continued improvement upon his once-shaky defensive reputation at second base. Semien posted a huge .285/.369/.522 slash with a career-best 33 homers, 10 steals and defense strong enough to make him a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop.

The 2020 season, however, has been another story entirely. In 236 plate appearances, he turned in a .223/.305/.374 batting line with seven homers and four steals. Semien’s 10.6 percent walk rate was the second-best of his career, trailing only last year’s breakout, but he went the wrong direction in virtually every other category. His strikeout rate jumped from 13.7 percent to 21.2 percent — his highest mark since 2017 — while his isolated power dipped from .237 to .152. Semien’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both dropped considerably.

Marcus Semien | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In the field, Semien went from +12 Defensive Runs Saved to -5. Outs Above Average wasn’t particularly kind to his 2020 work, either (-4). It’s worth mentioning that Ultimate Zone Rating still pegged him as a plus defender, with his 4.8 UZR/150 nearly matching the prior season’s 5.0. On a more rudimentary level, Semien made seven errors in 451 innings in 2020 compared to just 12 errors in 1435 frames a year ago.

The difficulty of evaluating players’ successes and failures in a wholly unique 2020 season is plain to see. But for both the A’s and for other clubs who may hold interest in Semien, it’s particularly challenging. Anything close to his 2019 output would’ve made him a lock to receive an $18.9MM qualifying offer, but the Oakland org now must wonder whether he’d accept such an offer and whether they’d want him back at that rate. Other clubs will be left to wonder whether the 2019 season was a fluky outlier or whether he was on player on the rise whose 2020 struggles can be attributed to myriad factors associated with this unprecedented season.

Perhaps further complicating matters for the A’s is that they have a second player who looks worth of a qualifying offer: closer Liam Hendriks. Such a notion would’ve sounded laughable as recently as 2018, when Hendriks was put through outright waivers and went unclaimed. However, he’s come back with a vengeance and emerged not only as Oakland’s closer but as the top free-agent reliever on this year’s market and one of the best relievers in the game, period.

Liam Hendriks Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past two seasons, Hendriks has a ridiculous 1.79 ERA, 1.70 FIP and 2.95 xFIP with averages of 13.1 strikeouts and 2.0 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s posted a superhuman 17.6 percent swinging-strike rate — including a 19 percent rate in 2020. Meanwhile, he induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a whopping 38.1 percent this year (35.1 percent dating back ti ’19). That he was named reliever of the year in the American League came as little surprise.

On many clubs, making a qualifying offer to Hendriks would be a no-brainer. However, the A’s perennially operate with one of the league’s lowest payrolls and are just months removed from having to be publicly pressured into paying their minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend. An $18.9MM salary on a reliever could well be something they’re not prepared to risk. From Hendriks’ vantage point, he’s just north of $12MM in career earnings, so an $18.9MM paycheck would surely be tempting.

At the same time, Hendriks surely took note when a less-dominant reliever, left-hander Will Smith, rejected a qualifying offer last year and still secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves. If his camp believes such a deal is out there, then rejecting would be a better move; even in a worst-case scenario, he’d surely be able to command a sizable one-year deal in free agency — albeit likely not at that $18.9MM level. But if Hendriks believes the downside of rejecting a qualifying offer is, say, a one-year deal at $10MM, he’d be risking the $8.9MM difference for a multi-year deal that guarantees him perhaps $20MM or more beyond the value of the qualifying offer.

All of this, of course, could be a moot point. The A’s might decide that they don’t want to risk a qualifying offer for either player. They’re already on the hook for $16.5MM to Khris Davis, $7.25MM to Stephen Piscotty and $4MM to Jake Diekman next year. They’ll also see both Matt Chapman and Matt Olson receive sizable salary bumps as they enter arbitration for the first time — the headliners in a class which also features Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Mark Canha and Frankie Montas, among others. Projecting arbitration salaries for that bunch is trickier than ever given the shortened season and revenue losses, but they should command more than $20MM.

There are some split camps on how the A’s will proceed on this front. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested on the former’s podcast last week that they still feel there’s a good chance Semien will receive an offer. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted recently, however, that a qualifying offer for Semien may not be realistic given the heft of that would-be salary.

The A’s were already slated to head into the 2020 season with what would’ve been a record payroll, just north of $100MM, prior to prorating this year’s salaries. Between the guarantees to Davis, Piscotty and Diekman; the arbitration raises to Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Bassitt, Canha and Montas; and the would-be $18.9MM salaries to Semien and Hendriks (should they accept), the A’s would already be close to $90MM. That’s before factoring in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster and any offseason additions they might hope to make.

Frankly, it’s difficult to see this club being willing to take this type of risk, although there’s an argument to be made in favor of both. A one-year deal for Semien would prove to be a nice value, for instance, if he rebounds to something between his 2019 and 2020 levels. And Smith’s contract with the Braves last year certainly lends credence to the idea that Hendriks could reject, which would give the A’s a valuable compensatory draft pick if he departs.

Let’s open this up for MLBTR readers to weigh in on a pair of questions:

Should the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)


Will the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for app users)

Looking For A Match In A Francisco Lindor Trade

By | at

The 2020 season ended in more disappointment for the Indians, who reached the playoffs but were once again unable to break a World Series drought that has gone back to their most recent title in 1948. The Indians may again try to contend next season, but it’s entirely possible they’ll do so without superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. Although the charismatic four-time All-Star won’t even turn 27 until next month, he’s only a year from a trip to free agency, and odds are that the low-budget Indians won’t be able to extend him. With Lindor due to earn anywhere from $17.5MM to $21.5MM in arbitration, it could make sense for the Indians to listen to trade offers before next season. If that happens, here’s a group of teams that might inquire…

Yankees

  • New York seems to have its long-term answer at shortstop in Gleyber Torres, but he had a so-so season, after which general manager Brian Cashman indicated he’s not a lock to remain at the position. With second baseman DJ LeMahieu set to reach free agency, the Yankees will have to address their middle infield in the coming months. What better way to replace LeMahieu than by acquiring Lindor? He’d grab short and allow the Yankees to move Torres back to the keystone, where he gained a large amount of experience from 2018-19.

Mets

  • This should be an aggressive offseason for the Mets, who figure to change owners from the Wilpons to Steve Cohen. If Cohen wants to make an immediate, headline-grabbing impact, there won’t be many better ways than by acquiring Lindor. The Mets aren’t necessarily set at short, where Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario were more OK than great in 2020.

Angels

  • Regardless of whether the Angels acquire Lindor, they’re probably going to add a new starting middle infielder this offseason. David Fletcher’s capable of playing shortstop, so they’re not necessarily a shoo-in to pick up someone there. However, with Andrelton Simmons set to hit free agency, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a high-profile replacement and keep Fletcher at second. The Angels, having missed the playoffs six years in a row, could decide to go big on Lindor. He’d look good in a lineup with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.

Braves

  • The Braves received solid production from shortstop Dansby Swanson in 2020, but after failing to take home a championship once again, would they consider a sizable splash in their infield? It seems possible, especially considering their uncertainty at third base. In the event of a Lindor acquisition, the Braves could either move Swanson to the hot corner or make Swanson part of the (a) trade.

Phillies

  • Shortstop wasn’t an issue in 2020 for the Phillies, who benefited after signing Didi Gregorius to a $14MM contract. The problem for Philly is that it may lose Gregorius in free agency, leaving the position as a question mark heading into the offseason. Lindor would make for a more-than-adequate Gregorius replacement if the latter leaves.

Dodgers

  • Flaws are typically hard to find on the Dodgers’ roster, but considering their deep farm system and their penchant for pursuing stars in trades (Mookie Betts and Manny Machado, to name a couple in recent years), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them involved in the Lindor sweepstakes. The Dodgers are fine with moving players all over the diamond, so even though there’s no clear “fit” for Lindor in LA – which boasts Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux among its returning middle infielders – the club could probably make it work.

Blue Jays

  • Toronto already has an-up-coming shortstop in Bo Bichette, but perhaps the club would be willing to shift its infield around to accommodate Lindor after a playoff season. Bichette could move to second or third, giving the Jays an infield consisting of him, Lindor, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. On paper, that may be among the scariest IF units in the game.

Reds

  • A Lindor pursuit could  be out of the question for the Reds, but they do need immediate aid at shortstop. Picking up Lindor would give the team a better chance to contend in 2020, and it would hand Cincinnati an opportunity to send Jose Garcia back to the minors for further seasoning.

Athletics

  • The A’s may not have the financial clout to pull this off, but all bets could be off if it’s just for a year. Either way, the A’s, who are coming off a division-winning season, will have to figure out their middle infield before next season. Starting shortstop Marcus Semien is slated for free agency, leaving the A’s without a solution there for the time being.

Twins

  • Considering Cleveland and Minnesota are in the same division, it seems unlikely they’ll match up on a Lindor trade. Still, if the Twins make a compelling offer, the Indians would have to listen. Adding Lindor would allow the Twins to move current starting shortstop Jorge Polanco into a utility role, though that’s assuming he wouldn’t be involved in a possible deal.

Cubs

  • The Cubs already have a shortstop in Javier Baez, but he had a shockingly rough 2020 and does have extensive experience at second base. Maybe president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, who’s seeking to change around the Cubs’ offense, would acquire Lindor and move Baez to the keystone in hopes of giving the club a jolt. Chicago does have a notable young middle infielder in Nico Hoerner, but he hasn’t hit since debuting in 2019.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

By | at

Has Francisco Lindor played his last game in an Indians uniform?  The shortstop’s fate is the biggest of several questions facing the Tribe this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $27MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout of $14MM club/vesting option for 2022 season)
  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $11MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022; also has a $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $5.5MM club option ($450K buyout)(deal also has $7MM club option for the 2022 season)
  • Domingo Santana, OF: $5MM club option ($250 buyout)

Free Agents

After winning 93 games but missing the postseason in 2019, the Tribe got back to the playoffs this year before being unceremoniously swept by the Yankees in the best-of-three wild card series.  Despite a .588 winning percentage since the start of the 2017 season, the Indians haven’t won a single postseason series in those four years, making one of the more successful stretches in franchise history seem like something of a disappointment.

Cleveland has both stretched and tried to manage its payroll to sustain this competitive window, trading such high-salaried notables as Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in 2019 to save some money and add some younger talent.  Even before the COVID-19 pandemic reduced revenues around baseball, the 2020-21 offseason was always projecting to be a transformative one for the Indians given how many key players (and key salaries) could be moved off the books.

We’ll begin with Lindor, who is entering his final year under team control.  Though neither side has ruled out the possibility of a contract extension, the writing has long been on the wall that the Indians won’t be able to afford the $200MM+ it would take to retain Lindor over the long term.  As such, this offseason represents the last and best opportunity for the Tribe to deal Lindor for a significant trade return, since waiting until next year’s trade deadline would greatly reduce the Indians’ asking price (and increases the risk of Lindor getting hurt or having a bad season).  Moving Lindor prior to Opening Day would also allow Cleveland to save at least $17.5MM in payroll, depending on how his arbitration number is figured.

There are several teams who figure to check in on Lindor’s services, if they haven’t already over the last couple of seasons.  Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, and Andrelton Simmons headline this winter’s free agent shortstop class, so Lindor could be seen as a preferable upgrade to that trio for shortstop-needy teams.

Is there a case to be made for keeping Lindor?  Certainly.  Looking at the finances first, Carlos Santana is likely to have his $17.5MM club option declined in the wake of a career-worst season for the veteran first baseman.  With Santana’s money coming off the books anyway, Lindor’s salary might not be seen as onerous for a club that has so little in the way of future contractual commitments.

Plus, trading Lindor for an acceptable return might not be quite so easy for Cleveland.  We’re only a year away from a potentially epic free agent shortstop class that could include Lindor himself along with Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager, so rival teams might prefer to acquire a one-year stopgap for 2021 before making the big splash at the position next year.  Trading for Lindor now would cost a team both young talent and money in the form of Lindor’s salary, whereas signing any of Semien, Gregorius, or Simmons costs only money, and less than Lindor’s projected arbitration cost.  Lindor is also coming off a down year by his standards (.258/.335/.415 with eight home runs over 266 plate appearances), which could make teams wary if they don’t write that performance off as a by-product of 2020’s unusual circumstances.

Cleveland doesn’t seem to have any inclination to rebuild, so having Lindor in the lineup would go a long way towards getting them back to the playoffs.  His average numbers in 2020 notwithstanding, Lindor is still one of baseball’s better players, and he has a particular importance on an offensively-challenged Cleveland team.  Part of the reason the Indians were willing to deal Bauer, Kluber, and Mike Clevinger was because of the club’s impressive ability to find and develop big league-ready pitching to restock the rotation, but Lindor is a much tougher player to replace.

MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and young slugger Franmil Reyes are the only sure things in a lineup that could be completely overhauled.  Beyond Lindor and Santana, Cesar Hernandez performed admirably as the Tribe’s second baseman but is headed for free agency.  Delino DeShields and/or Tyler Naquin could be non-tendered as the outfield continues to be a problem area.  At catcher, the Indians could roll with Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges and let Sandy Leon walk in free agency, or one of Perez or Hedges could be let go.

Keeping Lindor would add more stability to an overall unstable position player mix.  In the event that he is dealt, the Tribe could look internally to Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, or (with an aggressive promotion) prospect Tyler Freeman to fill the shortstop void, or Cleveland could themselves look to add a one-year veteran stopgap.  Chang or Mike Freeman could then be used at second base if Hernandez isn’t re-signed, though Hernandez has expressed interest in returning and might have a palatable enough asking price for the Tribe to explore a reunion.

Josh Naylor, acquired from the Padres as part of the Clevinger trade in August, will factor somewhere into the 2021 lineup, though it remains to be seen if the Canadian will be an everyday player at either left field or first base.  Jake Bauers could also be used at either position while Bobby Bradley is a first base candidate.  Star prospect Nolan Jones could also factor into the first base or corner outfield picture, as Jones is being worked out at other positions since Ramirez is occupies third base.

There are enough in-house candidates to provide the front office with some flexibility in their winter shopping.  If the outfield is a priority over second base, for example, the Indians could put their resources towards adding an outfielder and then making do with a Chang/Freeman platoon at the keystone.  The problem is, of course, that just about all of Cleveland’s internal candidates are either unproven at the MLB level or are coming off dreadful seasons.  (Oscar Mercado, for instance, went from Rookie Of The Year candidate in 2019 to possibly the worst hitter in baseball in 2020.)  While keeping Lindor helps this lineup, the lack of solid position player depth also serves as an argument for dealing him, since a trade might be the best method for the Tribe to acquire at least one younger, cheaper, MLB-ready regular.

Since spending will be a premium, the Tribe will be looking to find veterans at relative bargain prices.  The non-tender market is expected to be enormous, and every other team in baseball will also be hoping to scoop up lower-cost players from that same pool.  In a market where contract offers might be low across the board, the Indians have some attractive selling points for prospective free agents — plenty of opportunity for regular playing time, as well as the chance to play for a consistent contender with an elite pitching staff.

Speaking of that rotation, the Indians have the luxury of being able to focus much of their attention the position player side of the diamond thanks to their collection of arms.  Cleveland is one of the few teams that has the pitching depth to potentially make a starter available in a trade, and as the most expensive of the bunch, Carlos Carrasco might be the most obvious trade chip.  As Zack Meisel of The Athletic recently noted, however, Carrasco is such a clubhouse leader and important veteran voice on the perpetually young pitching staff that the team might see him as too valuable to move.  If the hitting is going to continue to be a question mark, the Tribe might also prioritize keeping their rotation as strong as possible.

Cleveland’s bullpen was almost as impressive as the starting staff in 2020.  Another contract with veteran southpaw Oliver Perez seems like a reasonable proposition, but Brad Hand’s $10MM club option looms as the relief corps’ biggest issue.  With James Karinchak positioned as a closer of the future, the Indians might prefer to install Karinchak now rather than pay $10MM to a reliever, even an outstanding one like Hand.  However, Hand is still such a quality pitcher that letting him go for nothing seems like something of a waste of an asset.

Exercising Hand’s option would at least allow the Indians the flexibility to explore trading him this winter, and if no deal could be found, $10MM for Hand might not be so hard to absorb if other salaries (i.e. Santana, Hernandez, Lindor) are also being moved out.  Cleveland could even explore packaging Lindor and Hand together in one blockbuster trade package, if another team wanted to make a big splash to contend in 2021.

With such a tremendous young rotation, the Indians’ window for a World Series is still open.  This offseason will be spent adding and subtracting from the lineup in search of the combination that will generate enough offense to give the pitching a chance.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

By | at

The Pirates were baseball’s worst team in 2020, although that came as little surprise following a winter where their only moves of note were to fire their manager, fire their GM and eventually trade away their best position player. They’ll have the top pick in next summer’s draft and another offseason that could subtract some notable names from the big league roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gregory Polanco, OF: $14MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option; contract also contains 2023 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using his 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Other Contractual Obligations

  • The Pirates technically owe Felipe Vazquez $7.75MM in 2021, but he’s not earning his salary while on the restricted list due to the abhorrent statutory sexual assault charges brought forth against him in 2019.

The Pirates will head into the 2020-21 offseason with an offense that scored the fewest runs in baseball (219) and a pitching staff that ranked 19th in ERA and 22nd in FIP. It’d be impossible to fix this club in just one offseason, but that’s of course not the goal of GM Ben Cherington and his staff, who surely knew they were signing on for a rebuilding effort when ownership fired former GM Neal Huntington.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, virtually every would-be trade chip on the roster saw his value disintegrate in what was a disastrous 2020 season. Chris Archer could have been one of the more intriguing arms on the trade market but didn’t pitch after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. That procedure makes his $11MM club option a virtual lock to be bought out, which should formally close the books on one of the most lopsided trades in franchise history. Closer Keone Kela was a no-brainer trade piece but missed the early portion of the season on the Covid-19 injured list and immediately went down with a forearm issue that ultimately ended his season. Both physical setbacks surely deprived the Pirates of the chance to acquire some younger, cost-controlled talent.

Archer and Kela were far from the only injuries that hindered any would-be rebuilding efforts for Cherington & Co., however. Right-hander Joe Musgrove hit the IL with a triceps injury in early August and wasn’t able to return prior to the Aug. 31 trade deadline. He was still discussed in trades — the Blue Jays reportedly came close to striking a deal, in fact — but Musgrove stayed put and will surely be on the market again this winter. Hot-hitting Colin Moran could conceivably have garnered interest from teams in need of a bat; he was hitting .259/.326/.531 as of Aug. 23 — when he was hit by a pitch and diagnosed with a concussion that kept him out until the deadline had passed.

When all was said and done, Jarrod Dyson was the only player the Pirates moved — a deal that netted them a bit of extra cash to devote to international free agency. Musgrove and fellow righty starter Trevor Williams were discussed but never moved, and the Pirates’ remaining trade assets all flopped in terms of performance. Josh Bell, Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco all hit so poorly that it’s hard to imagine many contenders even carried substantial interest — and that’s an issue that dovetails nicely into what a tough situation Cherington and his staff will face this winter. Here’s a look at what each of those three players did in 2020:

  • Bell: .226/.305/.364, eight home runs, career-worst 26.5 percent strikeout rate
  • Polanco: .153/.214/.325, seven home runs, career-worst 37.4 percent strikeout rate
  • Frazier: .230/.297/.364, seven home runs, career-worst 15.2 percent strikeout rate

Under normal circumstances, any of those three would ostensibly be an appealing trade chip. Polanco has battled injuries and inconsistency, but at his best in 2018, he hit .254/.340/.499 with 23 home runs, 32 doubles, six triples, a dozen steals and decent defense in right field. Bell crushed 37 home runs last year, and while he’s a poor defender at first base, he’s also a switch-hitter who is controlled through the 2022 season. Frazier isn’t as well-known but entered the 2020 season with a career .279/.342/.420 slash. Like Bell, he’s controlled through 2022.

Minor struggles or a slight down season might’ve helped to keep interest in that trio alive, but Bell and Polanco, in particular, ranked among MLB’s worst players. Of the 310 players in baseball to take at least 100 plate appearances this year, Bell’s -0.4 fWAR tied him for 283rd, while Polanco checked in at 303rd. Maybe a team would still like to acquire Bell while his salary is manageable and roll the dice on his two years of club control, but no one would pay a premium to do so. Polanco’s salary now looks mostly immovable. Frazier’s season wasn’t quite as dire, but a trade would still be selling quite low on a typically steady producer.

There are similar quandaries in the rotation. Trevor Williams got out to a solid start to his 2020 season but was shelled over his final six starts. In his final 31 frames, he yielded 28 earned runs on 41 hits (12 homers) and 13 walks with 26 punchouts. Chad Kuhl posted a respectable 4.27 ERA through 46 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he also walked 28 batters and hit a pair in that time, resulting in an ugly 5.48 FIP and 4.98 xFIP. Jameson Taillon moved another year closer to free agency in 2020, but the Pirates can’t be expected to trade him when he hasn’t pitched since June 2019 due to his second Tommy John surgery. All three of those pitchers are controlled through 2022, so there’s time to build some value back up next season.

If there’s one bright spot from the rotation that should bring the Bucs a nice haul this winter, it’s the aforementioned Musgrove. His forearm troubles limited him to 39 2/3 frames in 2020, but he was quite good when healthy (3.86 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 55-to-16 K/BB ratio, 48.2 percent grounder rate). Thankfully for the Pirates, Musgrove finished well upon his return and was utterly dominant in his final two outings: 13 shoutout frames against the Indians and Cardinals with a 21-to-2 K/BB ratio. He’s controlled another two seasons, and with a 4.23 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 325 1/3 innings since being acquired by Pittsburgh, he’ll be among the more appealing arms on the trade market this winter — especially considering a projected salary south of $4MM.

There are certainly some other arms the Bucs could market to the league’s many pitching-needy clubs. Southpaw Steven Brault turned in a career-best 3.38 ERA and 3.92 FIP through 42 2/3 frames, working mostly as a starter. His previous track record was limited, but he’s controlled through 2023 (and sings one heck of a National Anthem). Right-hander Richard Rodriguez quietly posted a 2.70 ERA/2.85 FIP with a 34-to-5 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 frames. Chris Stratton, acquired from the Angels for cash in 2019, has a 3.76 ERA and matching FIP with 10.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 76 2/3 innings as a Pirate. Both relievers are controlled through 2023 as well.

Perhaps behind the plate, 30-year-old Jacob Stallings could be an under-the-radar trade candidate. Stallings has hit .256/.326/.380 over the past two seasons while also serving as one of the best defenders in baseball. He’ll be 31 in December, but he’s controlled through 2024. It’d be a leap of faith for a contending club to plug him in as a starter, but over Stallings’ past 353 plate appearances, he’s been worth 2.4 fWAR and rWAR alike. If nothing else, his considerable platoon splits would make his right-handed bat a strong complement to another club’s left-handed-hitting starter.

Certainly, that’s a lot of focus on what the Pirates could subtract this winter and not much of a look at what they could add. It goes without saying that the Bucs won’t be players for any of the market’s top free agents or any high-profile players on the trade market. That doesn’t mean Cherington’s group will entirely eschew some free-agent additions, however. In fact, there’s good reason to argue for the Pirates being fairly aggressive with short-term adds in free agency.

Assuming a Musgrove trade is ultimately put together, there will be space in the rotation to attract free-agent starters in search of rebounds. Taillon and righty Mitch Keller should have spots locked down, and either of Williams or Kuhl could get another look if they’re not traded. Adding a rotation piece in need of a bounceback — or perhaps a young, non-tendered arm with some upside — would be wise.

The current group of free-agent starters includes rebound candidates like Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Wacha, Alex Wood, Tyler Chatwood and numerous others. The non-tender market will add alternatives, with Jose Urena, Vince Velasquez and Steven Matz standing out as a few speculative possibilities. The Pirates have a fairly pitcher-friendly park and a clear path to innings — something many contending clubs won’t be able to offer.

That’s even more true in the bullpen, where there should be numerous spots up for grabs in Spring Training. Promising a few spots to relievers in search of a rebound is sensible given the dearth of proven arms in the current group and the potential to spin any new signings into a decent return come July. We see this sort of deal come together every year around the league, with Kansas City’s recent Trevor Rosenthal addition standing as the most recent example.

With the entire Pirates outfield struggling badly in 2020, the Bucs would be a nice soft landing spot for any free agent whose market collapses — a near inevitability given the expected lack of spending among teams and the potential flooding of the market following the non-tender date. They’ll want to leave space to allow 2019 Rookie of the Year candidate Bryan Reynolds to rebound and, quite likely, to give waiver pickup Anthony Alford a platform to audition. Shortstop-turned-outfielder Cole Tucker should get a look as well. Still, there ought to be enough fluidity to grab a veteran who could provide stability, competitive at-bats and perhaps be flipped as was the case with Dyson this year.

The infield should be mostly set with breakout sensation Ke’Bryan Hayes, who had one of the best showings of any rookie once he was finally called to the big leagues, getting the third base job from the outset. Moran and Bell can pair to handle duties at first base and, if it’s implemented permanently in the NL, at designated hitter. Frazier’s track record should be enough to give him a mulligan on his poor 2020 showing if he isn’t traded. The possibility of a non-tender involving Bell, Frazier or Moran can’t be completely ruled out, but any would register as a surprise.

It’s also plausible that the Bucs could add at shortstop, where none of Kevin Newman, Kevin Kramer or the aforementioned Tucker has solidified himself. The 27-year-old Newman was terrific in 2019 but, like many of his teammates, floundered at the plate in 2020. Right hip surgery, meanwhile, wiped out Kramer’s entire season. Perhaps the Pirates could give a versatile option like Freddy Galvis or Jonathan Villar a look on a bounceback deal if neither is finding much of a market. There may be some speculation connecting the Bucs to KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, who’ll be posted this winter, given the team’s prior winning of the Jung Ho Kang bidding back in 2014. But Kim is a better player, should cost more and should also field offers from more competitive clubs; a match here would be a surprise.

Broadly speaking, it should be a quiet offseason for a Pirates club that, more than anything else, needs to see key 2019 contributors rebound in 2021. It will be critical for Bell, Polanco, Frazier, Williams and others to reestablish some trade value as their club control continues to dwindle. Should that not pan out, there could be a very different and difficult set of decisions for the Bucs to make this time next year. In the meantime, Pirates fans can look forward to watching Hayes build on his astounding debut effort as they continue to dream of what next year’s No. 1 overall pick might bring.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

By | at

The Los Angeles Dodgers took care of business last night against he Atlanta Braves to win their third pennant in the last four seasons. Corey Seager took home NLCS MVP honors, but it was Enrique Hernandez and Cody Bellinger coming up with big home runs in the sixth and seventh innings to seal the win. Our 2020 World Series matchup is now set, as the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Dodgers, beginning with a pair of Dodgers’ home games (at Globe Life Field in Texas) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Odd at it sounds, it’s rare to see each league’s top seed make it to the World Series in the same season. This year’s match-up achieves even rarer air, however. The Rays and Dodgers boast the highest combined regular-season winning percentage of any World Series contenders all-time, per Stats by STATS. There is, of course, the short season caveat, but the 2020 World Series nonetheless pits two sterling contenders against one another in what should/could be a real barnburner.

In one corner, we have the small market Rays. Run by the finest wunderkinds MLB can offer, this era of Rays baseball has been known for three things: innovation, ridiculously strong farm systems, and a front office of baseball wizards who have thrice been poached by large market clubs (Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers). The best of the Rays prospect pool remains on the farm (Wander Franco), but less-heralded stars like Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Joey Wendle, Pete Fairbanks, and others have led the Rays to the World Series. Lest you think they’re merely a ragtag group of underdogs, remember that Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton, and Blake Snell make up a surprisingly star-studded rotation for these “measly” Rays.

With manager Kevin Cash pulling the strings, Tampa finished 12th in runs scored during the regular season, 9th in wRC+, and 9th in batter fWAR. Arozarena, Choi, and somehow, Mike Zunino have steered the ship for the offense in the postseason thus far. They’ll look to get more from Lowe at the top of the order, and rest easy in knowing they don’t need to outscore the world forever, they just need to outscore the Dodgers in 4 games. The pitching should help in that regard, as their 3.56 team ERA was third in the majors.

The Dodgers, of course, boast a 3.02 team ERA during the regular season, the top mark in the majors. They also hit more home runs and scored more runs than any other team in the majors over the 60-game season. After coming back from a 3-1 NLCS deficit, they’ve now checked the ’faced adversity’ box as well. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger lead a star-studded offense, while Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler should be ready to start the first two games of the series. With rest days built in, the Dodgers’ ace duo should be more available to the Dodgers than at any other time this postseason.

And of course, there’s Andrew Friedman, the architect of these Dodgers who came to run a large market behemoth with the restraint and attention-to-detail he used to run the Rays. There aren’t gimmicks here, it’s just process building and sound decision-making. The philosophy works, and now we can sit back and enjoy the show as Friedman’s old team takes on his new one.

Let’s keep this simple, baseball fans: who is going to win the World Series? (Poll link for app users)

Previewing The 2020-21 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen

By | at

With the 2020 regular season having reached its end, there will be more and more talk about free agency during the upcoming weeks. MLBTR has already taken a look at the catchers, first basemen, shortstops, and third basemen due to reach the open market soon. We’ll now turn to the keystone, where utility options are in abundance.

Top of the Class

  • DJ LeMahieu (32): The American League batting champ is the cream of the crop at second base. Given his ability to slide anywhere in the infield, he’s about as valuable a commodity as can be found on the open market this winter. There will be widespread interest. Still, second base is his best position, and he’s easily the best player available in this spot. Don’t be surprised to see him sign somewhere with a need at the keystone – even returning to the Bronx. Since signing in New York, LeMahieu has posted an outrageous .336/.386/.586 slash with 36 home runs, 43 doubles and four triples in 871 plate appearances.

Potential Regulars

  • Jonathan Villar (30): Villar split his time between the Marlins and Blue Jays in 2020, but he fell short of reproducing the solid effort from the year prior. Between the two stops, he slashed just .232/.301/.292 while receiving regular playing time. There are some rumblings that he’s a second-division kind of guy, and he may have to choose between playing every down for a mid-tier club, or accepting a utility spot for a contender. He’s a dirt dog who runs well and can handle any spot up the middle, including centerfield.
  • Tommy La Stella (32): The A’s like La Stella and will likely try to bring him back. His ability to play second or third while posting professional at-bats and keeping the ball in play make him an appealing option league-wide, however. He’s also not likely to break the bank. He’ll not want to return to pinch-hitting duty, so a regular role will be a must – especially after a solid .281/.370/.449 effort between the Angels and A’s in 2020.
  • Cesar Hernandez (31): Hernandez impressed in his lone season with the Indians. If the price is right, both sides might look for a repeat performance after the long-time Phillie slashed .283/.355/.408 with a league-leading 20 doubles across 261 plate appearances. After middling defensive numbers with the Phillies, he got good marks for his work at the keystone in 2020 (6 DRS, 3.8 UZR). Hernandez should have no problem finding a regular role somewhere.
  • Jurickson Profar (28): Profar made good on his opportunity with the Padres, hitting .278/.343/.428 with 7 home runs across 202 plate appearances. He played more outfield than second base this season, but that was mostly a function of Jake Cronenworth’s breakout. Profar certainly enjoyed his time in San Diego, but his versatility could make him an asset on many teams. Where he suits up in 2021 should come down to price point.
  • Jonathan Schoop (29): Schoop mashed in his first season with the Tigers: .278/.324/.475 with 8 home runs in 2020. He still handles himself well defensively at second, but he doesn’t bring the versatility of many players on this list.

Part-Time/Utility Players

  • Enrique Hernandez (29): Kiké fits the mold of a number of players on this list, guys who can handle regular to semi-regular playing time while filling in all over the diamond. Hernandez has been the second-stringer to Chris Taylor in this role for the Dodgers, but he nonetheless gets somewhere between 200-500 at-bats per season, and they trust him in the postseason. He hit .230/.270/.410 in 2020, and if the Dodgers don’t return him to the roster, someone else will.
  • Freddy Galvis (31): Galvis slashed .220/.308/.404 across 159 plate appearances in his second season with the Reds. He can play both spots up the middle, and the switch-hitter does just enough at the plate to remain a viable option for everyday at-bats.
  • Jason Kipnis (34): The long-term Cleveland Indian saw regular playing time with the Cubs in 2020, slashing .237/.341/.404. He did just enough to keep getting the call at the 9-spot in the order, but he’s probably best utilized in a heavy timeshare.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera (35): MLBTR’s Steve Adams said it best when previewing the market for third baseman: “Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he keeps hitting and is capable of playing second base as well as both infield corners. He’s commanded one-year deals the past few winters and will probably be in line for another one this winter.”
  • Josh Harrison (33): Harrison had a decent run with the Nationals in 2020 after the Phillies cut him loose. He hit .278/.352/.418 across 91 plate appearances while making a good impression on manager Davey Martinez. He runs well enough and plays everywhere except shortstop and catcher. Don’t be surprised to see the Nationals bring him back in 2021.
  • Brock Holt (32): Likewise, Holt impressed with the Nats after a disastrous turn to start the year with the Brewers. Not only did he hit .262/.314/.354 across 70 plate appearances in Washington, but he rocked a mustache and made two appearances on the mound.
  • Marwin Gonzalez (32): Gonzalez spent the past two seasons with the Twins, slashing .248/.311/.387. He maintains the ability to play everywhere, though he made just one appearance at shortstop over his two seasons in Minnesota.
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (32): The defensive wizard appeared in 27 games for the Braves this year, slashing .254/.302/.305. He hasn’t been in consideration for postseason action. His value on this list lies in his ability to play a competent defensive shortstop.
  • Chris Owings (29): Owings got 44 plate appearances with the Rockies this year and held his own, hitting .268/.318/.439. His value comes in his versatility, however. Despite only appearing in 17 games, Owings spent time at every position except pitcher and catcher, even pinch-hitting three times and pinch-running twice.
  • Neil Walker (35): Walker was a semi-regular as recently as 2019 for the Marlins and 2018 with the Yankees. In 2020, however, he appeared in just 18 games, slashing .231/.244/.308 with the Phillies. Defense has never been his forte, but he can handle a glove at first, second, or third, while even taking an occasional turn in the outfield.
  • Jed Lowrie (37): Lowrie’s disastrous tenure with the Mets ended with just 8 plate appearances in two years. If the long-time veteran can get healthy, someone will give him a look, but that’s a big if.
  • Logan Forsythe (34): Forsythe’s best days are behind him. He hit just .118 in very limited action this year for the Marlins, and it’s been a long time since he glory days in Tampa. Still, he provides a good eye at the plate and enough positional versatility to get a look somewhere as a non-roster invitee.
  • Joe Panik (30): Panik’s days as a regular at the keystone are probably over. He hit .225/.340/.300 across 141 plate appearances with the Blue Jays in 2020 while moving between second, third, and short. That’s his role moving forward, but the playing time he received in 2020 extrapolates to 380 plate appearances in a full season – I’ll take the under on that number moving forward.

Players with 2021 Options

  • Kolten Wong, $12.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (30): Wong doesn’t bring much in the way of power, but he puts together good at-bats and plays gold glove defense. He slashed .265/.350/.326 in 2020, putting him somewhat on the bubble for 2021, but chances are the Cardinals find some way to bring him back.
  • Daniel Descalso, $3.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (34): Descalso won’t have this option picked up, despite providing more-or-less exactly what the Cubs hoped from him in terms of clubhouse/veteran presence. On the diamond, however, Descalso missed all of 2020 after slashing just .173/.271/.250 over 194 plate appearances in 2019.
  • Leury Garcia $3.5MM club option with a $250K buyout (30): This one could go either way. The White Sox love Garcia, and with Nick Madrigal coming back from injury, the ChiSox may prefer to bring back Garcia. He hit a palatable .271/.317/.441 across 63 plate appearances in 2020.
  • Dee Strange-Gordon, $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout (33): The Mariners will buy out Strange-Gordon after another lackluster season at the plate (42 wRC+). Great speed and the ability to play the outfield should get him a look somewhere, perhaps even with a contender in the mold of Billy Hamilton.
Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top