The Reds Should Trade Or Extend Jesse Winker This Offseason
These days, when baseball fans talk about the Reds, the general topic seems to be trying to pin down which, if any, of their three reportedly available starting pitchers will be traded following the transactions freeze. It’s hardly a secret that the Reds at least entertained talks involving Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle prior to the lockout. They also placed Wade Miley on waivers and traded Tucker Barnhart. Both looked to be financially driven moves, and GM Nick Krall erased any doubt that was the case when publicly declaring a need to “align payroll to our resources” early in the offseason.
Trade chatter on each of Gray, Castillo and Mahle followed — understandably so. All three are only controlled another two seasons. If ownership is mandating a payroll reduction even for just the 2022 season, there’s an argument to be made that the best course of action is to turn one or more of those highly coveted arms into some young talent who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. Gray is set to earn $10MM in 2022 and has a highly affordable $12MM club option for the 2023 season. Castillo and Mahle are arbitration-eligible and projected to earn $7.6MM and $5.6MM in 2022, respectively, by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
If the Reds are open to dealing any of those three quality starters who are controlled through the 2023 season, however, why isn’t there more talk of Cincinnati listening to offers on left fielder Jesse Winker? Like that trio of arms, Winker is controlled only through the 2023 season and figures to see his price tag rise substantially. He’s projected to earn $6.8MM in 2022 and, if he continues hitting at his recent pace, he’ll likely see that figure rise beyond $10MM in 2023.
First and foremost, let’s get one thing straight: Winker’s offensive proficiency hasn’t gotten nearly the attention it deserves. A former No. 49 overall draft pick (2012) and consensus top-100 prospect from 2015 to 2017, Winker has hit from the moment he got to the big leagues. That’s not an exaggeration; he slashed .298/.375/.529 in 137 plate appearances as a rookie back in 2017, and the only time he’s posted a wRC+ under 127 was in 2019, when he was “only” 11 percent better than league average (111 wRC+).
From 2017-19, Winker batted a combined .285/.379/.466 with 30 home runs, an 11.9% walk rate and just a 15.2% strikeout rate in 855 plate appearances — and yet his efforts went largely unnoticed. Even the Reds themselves signed not one but two free-agent outfielders to lucrative multi-year deals after that stretch, bringing Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama into the fold. It’s true that the left-handed-hitting Winker has some notable platoon splits and isn’t regarded as a great defender, but production like that should’ve seemingly entrenched him in the outfield mix — not left him fighting for at-bats alongside Aristides Aquino, Nick Senzel and others.
Good as Winker was from ’17-’19, it was the 2020 season where things really took off. Winker struck out more than in the past, causing his batting average to dip to .255, but his walk rate spiked to 15.3% and his power went through the roof. He slugged a dozen homers and hit seven doubles in just 184 plate appearances — all while posting a .289 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average). In 2021, Winker not only sustained much of that power surge but managed to drop his strikeout rate from the 25.1% he showed in 2020 back down to a 15.5% clip that falls in line with his 2017-19 numbers. Essentially, that 2020 spike in punchouts looks like a small-sample blip at this point. He’s never whiffed at even an 18% clip in any of his four other big league campaigns.
Over the past two seasons, Winker has appeared in a total of 164 games and tallied 668 plate appearances. He’s slugged 36 homers, connected on 39 doubles and posted a mammoth .292/.392/.552 batting line in that time. Great American Ball Park is a friendly place for hitters, to be sure, but park-neutral metrics like wRC+ (147) and OPS+ (140) suggest he’s still been anywhere from 40 to 47 percent better than a league-average hitter.
There’s little sense in trying to sugar coat Winker’s numbers against lefties. They are, quite simply, bad. He’s hit .199/.314/.338 (78 wRC+) against southpaws over the past two seasons, which is actually an improvement over his early-career woes. He still takes his walks (12.4%), but he’s fanned in 21.2% of his plate appearances compared to just 15.1% against righties. Winker’s 52.8% ground-ball rate against lefties is also vastly higher than his 43.6% mark against righties. And beyond that, 14% of the fly-balls Winker hits against lefties have been infield flies, compared to just 6% against righties. The walk rate at least lets Winker post a passable OBP against southpaws, but the damage he does comes when holding the platoon advantage.
Even if Winker is “only” a platoon player, however, he’s a platoon player who is not just productive against righties — he’s one of the best hitters in baseball against righties. From 2020-21, the only two players in all of MLB who have outproduced Winker against righties (by measure of wRC+) are Juan Soto (185) and Bryce Harper (179). Winker’s mark of 169 leads stars like Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Statcast generally supports his production, too; he was in the 74th percentile or better this past season in terms of strikeout rate, walk rate, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, chase rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA.
Excellent as Winker’s rate production has been, detractors might point out that he’s yet to reach 500 plate appearances in a given season. He’s had stints on the injured list in four of his five MLB campaigns, only staying healthy for the entirety of the shortened 2020 schedule. None of his issues seems to have been recurring; his career IL stints have come on account of a 2017 left hip flexor strain, a 2018 right shoulder subluxation, a 2019 cervical strain in his neck and an intercostal strain that ended his 2021 campaign. Winker is expected to be full-go for the start of Spring Training, but he has yet to put together a full 162-game season.
Still, plenty of clubs around the league would look past that injury history based on Winker’s career track record at the plate. As for the glove, Winker isn’t a great left fielder, but the likely implementation of a DH in the National League helps to quiet any such concerns. Furthermore, it’s not as though he’s unplayable on the grass. He posted a minus-5 mark in Defensive Runs Saved through 831 innings in left this past season (in addition to -1.9 UZR and -8 Outs Above Average) but is only minus-7 in 1669 career innings.
Winker is generally regarded as a better defender than either Castellanos or Kyle Schwarber, and most pundits expect both those players to command weighty contracts in free agency. Winker has been a better defender and better hitter than both over the past two seasons. There are surely teams that would rather part with prospects to acquire two years of Winker than pay annual salaries near (or in excess of) $20MM for Schwarber and Castellanos.
Frankly, any team that needs a left-handed bat and/or a boost in the outfield ought to be pounding on the Reds’ door in an effort to pry Winker away once the lockout lifts. He’s not without his flaws, but he’s an elite bat against right-handed pitching who can at least post a passable OBP against lefties. Winker won’t turn 29 until August, and while we can’t know his exact salary over the next two seasons, he’ll clock in at less than $20MM total.
All of that leads to the other side of the equation for the Reds. If they’re not going to trade Winker, now’s the time they should be mulling a multi-year extension with an eye toward making him a focal point of the lineup for years beyond his current slate of club control. By the time next spring rolls around, he’ll only be a year from free agency and may not be as amenable to negotiations — particularly not if he’s punched his ticket to another hefty arbitration raise with a strong 2022 season.
So, what might an extension cost? In terms of recent comparables, there haven’t been many outfielders to sign long-term deals when they’re sitting between four and five years of Major League service time. Randal Grichuk notched another four years and $47MM on top of what would’ve been a $5MM salary for his second arbitration year early in the 2019 season, but Winker has been a vastly more productive player. Adam Jones‘ six-year, $85.5MM deal is a decade old at this point.
Winker should command something in the $15-18MM range for his remaining two arbitration seasons. Tacking on three years beyond that would seem a reasonable target for the Reds, though given his age, Winker’s reps might advocate for a longer deal over one that sends him back to the market as a 33-year-old. Mid-range corner outfielders like Josh Reddick and Avisail Garcia have reached/topped $13MM annual salaries on four-year deals in recent years. Castellanos received a $16MM annual salary on his first deal with the Reds — the same AAV the Astros gave to a much older but nonetheless productive bat-first player, Michael Brantley. Winker’s production should put him closer to Castellanos territory than Reddick/Garcia territory.
These are all generalities, of course, but a five- or six-year deal that values Winker’s free-agent seasons in the $16MM vicinity doesn’t seem outlandish. After all, were he to go year-to-year and continue at his current pace, he’d hit the market in advance of his age-30 season and could justifiably seek an annual salary more in line with whatever Schwarber and Castellanos land post-lockout.
Ultimately, the Reds could opt for the conservative route, holding onto their left fielder and going year-to-year with Winker through the remainder of his arbitration eligibility. If they’re truly willing to listen to offers on their top three starters, though, there’s little sense in not doing the same with Winker — unless an extension is expected down the line. Based on the team’s spending habits since the close of the 2020 season, an extension would register as a surprise. Perhaps it’s a hard “no” from the Reds, but listening to offers on Gray, Castillo and Mahle while turning away interest in Winker would be an odd line to draw in the sand.
15 Hitters Who Quieted Injury Concerns In 2021
One of the most inescapable realities in any professional sport is that athletes are going to get hurt. For baseball, a 162-game schedule combined with limited chances in each game for a player to make an impact leads to a high frequency of all-out plays. Sprinting to first base, diving for flyballs, and standing firm in the face of 100mph fastballs are commonplace— as are the injuries that can result from each of those actions.
The effects of injuries on a player’s career are, naturally, high variance. This winter’s top two free agents, for example, have been dogged by injuries throughout their careers to the general indifference of bidders. More often, however, it appears that injuries turn All-Stars into afterthoughts or dash a player’s shot at a breakout year altogether. No matter the severity of an injury, fans, players, and front offices can all generally agree on one thing: injuries are annoying.
With few players ever immune from the injury bug, a number of stars entered the 2021 season looking to correct some health trends from previous seasons. The sheer number of stars looking to prove their health at the beginning of 2021 may be larger than many remember, as 2020’s pandemic-shortened season did little to showcase player health. After all, even if a player played in all 60 games that season, would it be enough to shed the “injury prone” label if they were hurt often in 2018 and 2019? Another issue with the 2020 season was how it disrupted player conditioning, leading to a higher rate of injuries than the average season (per research compiled by Chet Gutwein of FanGraphs).
Determining which players were worthy of the “injury prone” label coming into the season (and accordingly, who shirked that distinction after a mostly healthy 2021 campaign) is a subjective activity. Still, we can put some parameters on our search to narrow the list of players who actually needed to prove they can stay on the field and produce.
For starters, we can look at players who dealt with injuries over the past three seasons prior to 2021; out of a possible 384 games we’ll say any player who missed more than 100 of those games carried noteworthy injury questions in recent years. That pool can then be whittled down further to include players who ultimately proved healthy in 2021— we’ll set the bar there at 2/3 of games played, or 108 games, to indicate a player was twice as healthy as not. Lastly, a player had to be good in 2021 in order to quiet doubters, so the following list of players will only include players who produced at an above average level in 2021, with a wRC+ north of 100.
To recap, this list of players missed at least 100 games between 2018-2020, but played in 2/3 of their team’s regular season games at an above average level in 2021. Players like Yordan Alvarez, who technically meet the above criteria but did not debut until 2019, will be excluded on the basis of having too small a sample size to draw health trends from. Likewise, players like Ian Happ who only meet the above criteria due to minor league demotions or some other non-injury related reason will not be included on the list.
- Kris Bryant (Missed 101 games between 2018-2020; Played 144 games, posted 123 wRC+ in 2021)
Bryant may seem like an odd entrant on this list, but questions existed after he sported a .644 OPS in 34 games during the shortened season. A shoulder injury limited Bryant to 102 games and just 13 home runs in 2018. - Justin Turner (Missed 104 games between 2018-2020; Played 151 games, posted 127 wRC+ in 2021)
Turner matched a career high in games played last season, a welcome sight after a myriad of maladies in recent years allowed him to land on this list. Entering his age-37 season, Turner seems like a prime candidate to stay fresh at the DH position if/when it becomes universal. - C.J. Cron (Missed 106 games between 2018-2020; Played 142 games, posted 127 wRC+ in 2021)
Knee surgery and a 13-game showing in 2020 are the driving reason for Cron’s inclusion here. This layoff made Cron’s career year in Colorado all the more surprising, as his jump to the NL saw him blow most of his previous bests out of the water. - Joey Gallo (Missed 109 games between 2018-2020; Played 153 games, posted 123 wRC+ in 2021)
Another oddball entrant on the list, Gallo missed the bulk of his time during his 2019 All-Star campaign owing to a second half wrist injury. A .679 OPS showing across 57 games in 2020 did little to quell concerns that Gallo was back to his 40-homer days, but a 38-homer campaign with the Rangers and Yankees in 2021 may have done the trick. - Andrew McCutchen (Missed 113 games between 2018-2020; Played 144 games, posted 107 wRC+ in 2021)
The former-MVP has largely been the pinnacle of health, but a torn ACL in 2019 led to over 100 lost games in that season alone. McCutchen has seen better days on both sides of the ball, but entering his age-35 season he again seems as solid a bet as anyone to provide durability and solid production. - Kevin Kiermaier (Missed 118 games between 2018-2020; Played 122 games, posted 101 wRC+ in 2021)
Kiermaier is one of those players who seems like a walking injury-risk, a stigma perhaps upheld by the fact that Tampa Bay has yet to trade him. To his credit however, Kiermaier just had one of the better offensive campaigns of his career, showing solid health and sterling-as-always defense as well. - AJ Pollock (Missed 130 games between 2018-2020; Played 117 games, posted 137 wRC+ in 2021)
On a star-studded Dodgers roster Pollock quietly played in 117 games last season, a number he hadn’t eclipsed since his otherworldly 2015 campaign. The Dodgers have weened Pollock off of center field duty in recent years, which may again help him stay healthy entering his age-34 season. - Carlos Correa (Missed 141 games between 2018-2020; Played 148 games, posted 134 wRC+ in 2021)
Baseball’s top remaining free agent found an optimal time to stick on the field and produce. Correa’s elite 2021 season came on the heels of three seasons that were each plagued with underperformance or IL time. - Aaron Judge (Missed 144 games between 2018-2020; Played 148 games, posted 148 wRC+ in 2021)
Wrist, oblique, and calf injuries sapped Judge of playing time from 2018-2020, but there wasn’t any rust last season. Judge played in 148 games last year, a total he hasn’t reached since his Rookie of the Year-winning 2017 campaign, and remains as fearsome an at-bat for opposing teams as ever. - Josh Donaldson (Missed 149 games between 2018-2020; Played 135 games, posted 124 wRC+ in 2021)
Donaldson has alternated healthy seasons with injury-riddled ones as of late, though he’s made his presence felt in recent odd-year seasons. - Miguel Sano (Missed 155 games between 2018-2020; Played 135 games, posted 110 wRC+ in 2021)
A few minor league demotions contributed to that missed game total, though injuries have still kept Sano out of 100+ Major League games, making him eligible for this list. Sano’s 135 games played represent a career-high, even if the rest of his 2021 rate stats seem modest compared to years past. - Mitch Haniger (Missed 164 games between 2018-2020; Played 157 games, posted 120 wRC+ in 2021)
Surgeries kept Haniger from taking the field at all in 2020, a year after missing most of 2019’s season to injury. Haniger filled up the stat sheet in 2021 though, matching his personal best of 157 games played while hitting 39 home runs and reaching the century mark in both runs scored and RBIs. - Giancarlo Stanton (Missed 184 games between 2018-2020; Played 139 games, posted 137 wRC+ in 2021)
It had been a few years since Stanton was regularly healthy in pinstripes, as he played in just 41 regular season games from 2019-2020. Stanton was in such good form last season however, that he was able to stay healthy even with irregular outfield reps. - Tyler Naquin (Missed 194 games between 2018-2020; Played 127 games, posted 110 wRC+ in 2021)
Injuries took the shine off what had the potential to be a strong Cleveland tenure, thanks to a solid rookie season in 2016. While he was probably miscast as a centerfielder, Naquin offered solid production across a career-high 127 games for the Reds last season. - Salvador Perez (Missed 218 games between 2018-2020; Played 161 games, posted 127 wRC+ in 2021)
An elbow injury wiped out all of Perez’s 2019 campaign, while eye issues limited his follow-up season. That Perez was able to bop 48 home runs and play 161 games— 124 of which came from behind the dish— was remarkable, and may spell a return to form for a catcher who logged huge games played totals up to 2018.
The above players still carry some level of risk heading into the eventually-going-to-happen 2022 season, as all athletes do. With largely healthy and productive 2021 seasons in the books though it’s hard to argue this group didn’t elevate their stocks, providing at least some extra cause for optimism that they can stay on the field when baseball resumes.
But what do you think, did any other hitter inspire enough confidence in 2021 for you to feel good about healthier days ahead? Let us know in the comments!
Trade Candidate: Carlos Santana
Carlos Santana was an above average hitter in every season of the first decade of his career. In his first taste of the big leagues, 2010, he only played 46 games but knocked six homers and walked more than he struck out, slashing .260/.401/.467 for a wRC+ of 141. In each of the next nine seasons, he played at least 143 games, hit at least 19 home runs and never had a walk rate lower than 13.2% or a wRC+ lower than 108.
In 2020, his age-34 season, things didn’t go so smooth, as he hit just .199/.349/.350, wRC+ of 99. However, there were still reasons for optimism. Firstly, it was a small sample of just 60 games, due to the pandemic. Secondly, the walk rate was still excellent, coming in at 18.4%. Thirdly, his .212 batting average on balls in play was well below his previous seasons, suggesting that perhaps bad luck was dragging him down somewhat.
The Royals seemingly favored that optimistic view, as they beat the market and signed Santana to a two-year contract with a $17.5MM guarantee prior to the 2021 season. At the time, the club had posted a losing record in four straight seasons, but believed the time was right to act aggressive in trying to bolster a young core and attempt to open a competitive window.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan for Santana or the team. Although the walks were still there, as evidenced by his 13.1% rate, his line of .214/.319/.342 only amounted to a wRC+ of 83. The BABIP rebounded, but only slightly, to .227. As for the team, they finished well out of contention with a record of 74-88.
The Royals now have a bit of a crowded infield mix for a few reasons. While Adalberto Mondesi was on the shelf last year, Nicky Lopez took over the shortstop job, pushing Mondesi to third base upon his return. That pushed Hunter Dozier into spending some time at first base and the corner outfield spots. Then there’s the looming presence of top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto. Witt should eventually be playing regularly at shortstop or third base, which could push Mondesi into some time at DH, or push Lopez to second, pushing Whit Merrifield into the outfield, which bumps someone else into DH time.
Pratto, however, is a more direct source of pressure on Santana, as he is almost exclusively a first baseman, playing just three games in the outfield last year. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Pratto hit 36 home runs with a line of .265/.385/.602, wRC+ of 156.
That crowded position player mix makes Santana a clear trade candidate, given that he has just one year and $10.5MM remaining on his contract. The trouble for the Royals lies both in that they would be trading low on Santana and also that there are other first base options available to those teams looking for one. The free agent market features Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo as the high profile names, along with other options such as Daniel Vogelbach, Brad Miller, Albert Pujols and many more. On the trade front, Matt Olson is widely expected to be traded after the lockout. Luke Voit could be on the move if the Yankees find another option. Even if the Royals want to go the route of including a prospect to help stimulate a Santana trade, they’d be competing with the Padres who are known to be trying to take the same approach with Eric Hosmer.
It might be a challenge to hastily work out a deal during the transaction frenzy that will surely take place between whenever the lockout ends and the season gets underway. Perhaps the best path forward for the Royals is to hold onto Santana and hope that he can get things back on track, either to help the team compete or to rebuild trade value. He was dealing with a quad issue at times last year, which he has now recovered from, but he will turn 36 in April, making it harder to expect perfect health and ideal production going forward. Though late career bounceback campaigns are certainly possible, as Joey Votto just showed in his age-37 season.
Trade Candidate: Didi Gregorius
There’s no denying that Didi Gregorius had a rough campaign in 2021, as he struggled on both sides of the ball. Offensively, he hit .209/.270/.370, resulting in a wRC+ of just 68, the lowest such mark of his career, outside of an eight-game cup of coffee in his 2012 debut. On the defensive side of things, all the advanced metrics agreed that he wasn’t at his best, as his DRS was -10, his UZR was -2.6 and his OAA was -17.
Those struggles were significant enough that he may not have a firm grip on the Phillies’ shortstop job in 2022. In a year-end press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski had this to say on the matter: “It very well could be him. But he knows, we’ve had a discussion with him that he needs to be better. And we’re in a position where we also are going to be open-minded to what’s going to take place at shortstop next year. It could be internal, could be him if he comes back. …. Maybe it is him. He’ll come in (next season) in shape, but he’s not guaranteed — and he’s been told — that he’s for sure the shortstop. It doesn’t mean he can’t play other positions for us too, and maybe we’ll have a DH that’ll be a part of our club too.”
If the club no longer views Gregorius as their answer at shortstop, that raises multiple possibilities going forward, as Dombrowski laid out. As for the “internal” option he mentioned, the most likely candidate there is Bryson Stott, who spent the bulk of last year cruising through Double-A pitching. In 80 games there, he hit .301/.368/.481, for a wRC+ of 130. After getting promoted to Triple-A, he got into 10 games there and hit .303/.439/.394. In 26 games at the Arizona Fall League, he put up a line of .318/.445/.489.
It certainly seems feasible that Stott could join the big league club in 2022 and bump Sir Didi off his throne and to another position. With Jean Segura at second base, Gregorius could potentially help out at third. Alec Bohm also struggled in 2021, but should be given a chance to rebound based on his youth, prospect pedigree and excellent rookie season in 2020. If the NL adds the DH, as Dombrowski alluded to, that could lead to Gregorius being used in utility role, playing various infield positions as other players are rotated through the DH slot, in addition to seeing some time at DH himself.
But Dombrowski also said that Gregorius could be the shortstop “if he comes back,” seemingly implying that there’s a chance Gregorius is wearing a different jersey in 2022. Despite a legendary crop of superstar free agent shortstops, there are a handful of teams that have stayed out of the sweepstakes thus far and could potentially be interested in Gregorius. He has just one year and $15.25MM remaining on his contract and is about to turn 32, meaning a return to his previous form is certainly not out of the question.
Coming into the offseason, the Yankees were widely expected to be in the hunt for a big-ticket shortstop acquisition after moving Gleyber Torres over to second base. However, they have been rumored to be eschewing a large expenditure in that area, reportedly believing that prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza can provide them with an internal solution. But Volpe is yet to play above High-A and Peraza has only eight games of Triple-A experience. Bringing Gregorius back to the Bronx would be a fun story and also make some sense, as he could diversify a righty-heavy lineup with his lefty bat while holding down shortstop until one of the kids takes his spot.
The Astros have taken a similar approach to the Yankees, seemingly content to wait for prospect Jeremy Pena and uninterested in splurging on an expensive free agent shortstop to replace Carlos Correa. But Pena only played 30 Triple-A games in 2021 and just 37 games in total. It would probably be unwise to expect him to simply jump up to the majors and take over as the full-time shortstop without a hitch. Having someone like Gregorius on hand would be a better fallback option than Aledmys Diaz, who hasn’t played more than nine games at shortstop in a season since 2018.
The Rockies don’t yet have a replacement for Trevor Story, who seems unlikely to return in free agency. There are internal candidates such as Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers, but they are capable of playing elsewhere on the diamond, meaning it would be quite easy to fit Gregorius into the equation. Perhaps playing his home games at Coors Field could help him get his groove back at the plate.
The Angels have improved their pitching staff this offseason but still have question marks on the infield, with Tyler Wade and David Fletcher currently pencilled into the middle of the diamond. With the club clearly in win-now mode as they try to take advantage of their best remaining years of the Trout-Ohtani combo, they could grab Gregorius and bump Wade into a utility role.
If the Phils can find a taker for Gregorius, it could clear the deck for Stott or perhaps an acquisition in free agency. Carlos Correa and Trevor Story remain unsigned and will need to find new teams once the lockout is complete. As a big-market team with an uncertain shortstop picture, the Phillies stand out as one of the teams that could theoretically be a fit for them. The club’s Opening Day payroll is currently projected to be $181MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s about $10MM shy of last year’s number, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s possible the club decides to push the budget a bit farther this year, but finding a taker for some or all of the $15.25MM owed to Gregorius would give them more wiggle room to address shortstop along with other areas of weakness, such as center field, left field and the bullpen.
Who’s Blocking Triston Casas?
In the 2018 MLB draft, the Red Sox used their first round pick, 26th overall, to select infielder Triston Casas out of American Heritage High School in Plantation, Florida. Only 18 years old at the time, Casas was put to work straight away, playing two rookie ball games before thumb surgery forced him to miss the remainder of the year.
In 2019, Casas was sent to A-ball and crushed 19 home runs in 118 games. His overall line was .254/.349/.472, with his 11.8% walk rate helping to create that separation between his batting average and on-base percentage, as well as a wRC+ of 136. His 23.5% strikeout rate could be considered a tad high, but not alarming. He was rewarded for that fine performance with two games at High-A to finish the year.
The pandemic wiped out the minors entirely in 2020, but Casas was added to Boston’s 60-man player pool that year. He might have shown something impressive at the alternate training site, as he was promoted to Double-A to start 2021. In 77 games there, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .284/.395/.484, wRC+ of 142. His walk rate climbed to 14.9% and strikeout rate fell to 19.1%. He also left for a while to represent the United States in the Olympics, helping the team win a silver medal. After a promotion to Triple-A, he got into nine games and hit .242/.381/.485, with even strikeout and walk rates of 19%. He was then sent to the Arizona Fall League, where he continued his excellent year, hitting .372/.495/.487 in 21 games, with a walk rate of 17.5% and strikeout rate of 18.6%. He’s now considered one of the best prospects in baseball, ranked #19 by Baseball America, #18 by MLB Pipeline and #17 by FanGraphs.
Casas just turned 22 and isn’t on the 40-man roster yet, but if he continues this sort of production into 2022, he should be up in Boston before long. Defensively, Casas played exclusively at first base last year. He did play some third base in 2019, but in just eight of his 118 A-ball games. That lack of versatility will narrow his path onto the big league roster.
The Red Sox currently have Bobby Dalbec as their first baseman, as he got the majority of playing time there in 2021. It’s tough to know what to make of him at this point, due to his inconsistency. He had a great debut in 2020, playing 23 games in the pandemic-shortened campaign and hitting .263/.359/.600, wRC+ of 152. In 2021, he had a rough first half but seemingly righted the ship as the season went along. From the start of the season through July, he was hitting just .216/260/.399. But for the remainder of the year, he hit .288/.369/.683. He then slumped in the postseason, going hitless and striking out five times in 12 at-bats. He’s seen some limited action at third base, but the Sox should have Rafael Devers slotted in there most of the time. It’s a small sample, but none of DRS, UZR or OAA looked favorably at Dalbec’s work at the hot corner.
Although he’s capable of playing the field at times, J.D. Martinez is likely to see significant time in the designated hitter slot. In 2021, he played 148 games but only made it onto the grass for 38 of them. However, he’s in the final year of his contract with the club, making this a short-term issue. In the long-term, it’s possible that the Sox could utilize both Dalbec and Casas, alternating them between first base and DH, assuming they both hit well enough.
The long-term picture also has to factor in Rafael Devers, however. His defensive numbers at third base are poor and many have speculated that he will have to move to first base eventually. (In 2021, his DRS was -13, UZR was -5.5 and OAA was -13.) He’s only under club control for two more seasons but has been considered an extension candidate for years.
One way to help with this shuffle would be platooning Dalbec and Casas, as Dalbec hits from the right side and Casas the left. Dalbec has a noticeable platoon split in his big league career so far, putting up a .281/.326/.576 line against lefties and a .218/.297/.466 against righties. Casas, between Double-A and Triple-A last year, hit lefties just .219/.289/.301 while mashing righties to the tune of .298/.424/.540.
There are many questions here that will likely need time to be answered. However it shakes out, Casas seems like he has the right combination of power and a batter’s eye to fit into the puzzle one way or another. The Red Sox had a potent offense in 2021 but have since subtracted Kyle Schwarber and Hunter Renfroe. Although they could certainly go after a big move after the lockout, Casas could also provide them with a boost from within.
Looking At The Reds’ Rotation Beyond The Top Three
If you follow the Reds, you likely know the offseason story by now. It started with Tucker Barnhart being traded as soon as the offseason began. That was followed by this ominous quote from general manager Nick Krall: “Going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” Shortly after that, Nick Castellanos opted out of his contract and entered free agency, and Wade Miley was claimed off waivers by the Cubs.
It’s possible that the departures of Castellanos and Miley mean that the alignment of payroll and resources is now done and that no further salary trimming is required. However, that didn’t stop the rumor mill from grinding up Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle throughout November, as numerous teams were reportedly interested in acquiring them.
Whether they end up finalizing a deal or not, there are still other rotation slots to consider. Castillo, Gray and Mahle have gotten most of the attention in recent months, but the club still needs to think about their fourth and fifth starters. No team gets through a full season with just five starters either, due to injuries and underperformance, meaning the club will need to think about depth as well.
Vladimir Gutierrez should be pencilled into one of the backend spots after making 22 starts in 2021. The righty logged 114 innings with an ERA of 4.74, but strikeout and walk rates of just 17.7% and 9.3%, both of which are worse than league average. There are some reasons for optimism, however, as he’s only 26 and had better results in Triple-A last year. It was only three starts and 17 innings, but his 2.65 ERA was accompanied by a 31.3% strikeout rate, although his 10.4% walk rate was still high.
2021 was an excellent year for Reiver Sanmartin, who started the year in Double-A, getting promoted after logging 18 innings with a 0.50 ERA. In Triple-A, he added another 82 1/3 innings with a 3.94 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. The southpaw was called up to the big leagues as the season was winding down and made a pair of starts, throwing 11 2/3 innings with a 1.54 ERA. In the Dominican Winter League, he added another 31 innings with an ERA of 1.45. He’ll turn 26 in April.
Jeff Hoffman pitched in 31 games for the Reds in 2021, with 11 of those being starts. In those starts, he put up an ERA of 5.20, with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 14.2% walk rate. He was much better out of the ‘pen, throwing 28 innings with an ERA of 3.54, 32.3% strikeout rate and 12.1% walk rate. Unlike Gutierrez and Sanmartin, he’s out of options, meaning he’ll likely be on the big league team either way, but it seems like the bullpen might be a better home for the 29-year-old.
Tony Santillan made four starts for the Reds in 2021, along with 22 relief appearances. He was fine enough in those four starts, as evidenced by his 3.78 ERA. But like Hoffman, he was even better out of the ‘pen, putting up an ERA of 2.36, with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. He has one option year remaining and is still young, turning 25 in April, meaning he could be used as Triple-A depth if he’s not needed on the big league club.
Riley O’Brien threw 112 2/3 Triple-A innings last year with an ERA of 4.55. His 24.7% strikeout rate is encouraging but his 11.2% walk rate concerning. He got called up to make one start for the Reds in September, but lasted only an inning and a third. He’ll turn 27 next week but still has options remaining.
Hunter Greene is considered one of the best prospects in baseball, landing in the top 35 on the Top 100 lists of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs. He started 2021 in Double-A and dominated. Over seven starts and 41 innings, he had a 1.98 ERA, 37% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. After a promotion to Triple-A, he wasn’t quite as dominant but still quite effective. Over 14 starts and 65 1/3 innings, he had a 4.13 ERA, strikeout rate of 28.6% and walk rate of 9.1%. He just turned 22 in August and was added to the 40-man roster in November.
There’s another highly-touted prospect in Nick Lodolo, who also appears on the three aforementioned Top 100 lists. Like Greene, he dominated at Double-A last year, throwing 44 innings over ten starts with an ERA of 1.84, strikeout rate of 39.3% and walk rate of 5.2%. He got promoted to Triple-A and made three starts before a shoulder strain finished his season. He’ll turn 24 this week but isn’t yet on the 40-man.
Further depth options include Graham Ashcraft, who finished 2021 at Double-A, and minor league signees Connor Overton and Ben Lively. Despite that crop of intriguing options, none of them should be considered locks for 2022. Gutierrez and Hoffman are the only ones with more than 45 MLB innings under their belts, and they both come with concerns.
In a vacuum, a team with a rotation consisting of three strong starters and two question marks should be adding and not subtracting, especially if they have designs on competing. The club was connected to Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Dodgers, meaning they have at least considered supplementing this group. However, it’s possible that move would have been combined with one of the oft-rumored trade scenarios of Gray, Castillo or Mahle.
Although the market for free agent starting pitching was largely picked over prior to the lockout, there are still some decent veteran options available, such as Michael Pineda, Tyler Anderson, Drew Smyly and Brett Anderson. A signing of that nature could theoretically add some stability to this highly volatile group without breaking the bank.
The Reds front office seems to be between a rock and a hard place here, as they can’t reasonably consider tearing down the roster at this point. After six straight losing season from 2014 to 2019, which included four straight seasons in the NL Central basement, they’ve recently opened a competitive window. But after two seasons of nudging just beyond the .500 mark, they can’t ask their fans to hold their noses and start the process all over again. However, they don’t seem to have been given the resources necessary to make an impact signing, which might force them to get creative about how they build their rotation for 2022. With that impressive depth, they should be able to navigate it to some degree. But that depth could either be Plan A or Plan B, depending on whether they add or subtract after the lockout is over.
Recalibrating Expectations For Luis Urias
Luis Urias was a top prospect coming up in the Padres’ system at a time when San Diego had one of the best farm systems in baseball. The Padres avoided overtures to deal Urias for more established talent year after year. After intermittent opportunities in 2018 and 2019, Urias was shipped to Milwaukee in one of the more interesting challenge trades in recent memory: the Padres sent Urias and southpaw Eric Lauer to the Brewers for outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies.
At the time – late November of 2019 – Grisham was at a low point, fresh off ending the Brewers season with an unfortunate bounce on a Juan Soto single that knocked Milwaukee out of the wild card game. Grisham had played admirably in a 51-game stint mostly standing in for the injured Christian Yelich – not at all an easy task, given his legendary status at the time. But the way the season ended definitely left a poor impression about Grisham’s future. Of course, Grisham would go on to win a Gold Glove Award as a centerfielder the next season, reminding us that a single moment in time cannot define a player’s career. The now-25-year-old has grown his well-rounded game enough to place him among the most promising centerfielders in the sport.
A similar lesson might be taken from the first few seasons of Urias’ career. His first season with the Brewers looked a lot like his first few years in San Diego. Following the 2020 season, Urias’ career triple-slash line was a punchless .226/.315/.320, a performance 24 percent below-average. The lack of pop wasn’t shocking, as power was never his calling card. His offensive potential was built on a keen eye at the plate and bat-to-ball skills that routinely produced batting averages of .290+ while in the minor leagues.
Urias, who’s still just 24, turned it around in the 2021 campaign, posting a 111 wRC+ while slashing .249/.345/.445 with 23 home runs. Oddly, it was his power that drove the improvement as his isolated power jumped to .196, an above-average mark that helped sustain a move to the more power-expectant position of third base. If last season’s output represents a new baseline for Urias, our typical understanding of the aging curve suggests that Urias ought to have at least another 5-6 seasons of being a very good baseball player.
If the high-average, high-on-base-percentage player that Urias had been throughout his minors career re-animates for the Brewers in 2022, the Brewers might really have a star player on their hands. They might need one, too, because, somewhat ironically, where once Grisham stood in for an injured Yelich, an improved Urias helped pick up the slack for a lessened Yelich in 2021. With Yelich no longer performing at the superhuman levels of his MVP seasons, and Lorenzo Cain beginning to show his age, the Brewers had to rely on a more egalitarian approach at the plate in 2021. Urias was a big reason why the Brewers were able to weather Yelich’s decline from a 170 wRC+ superhero in 2018-19 to an all-too-mortal 105 wRC+ in 2020-21. Willy Adames carried much of the load after his arrival from Tampa, but even his transformation into a middle-of-the-order bat (135 wRC+) didn’t come close to matching the firepower of Yelich in his heyday.
Manager Craig Counsell mixes-and-matches to maximize the production of an imperfect offensive roster, and he’s done so dating back to Yelich’s MVP years. The Brewers scored 754 runs in 2018 when Yelich won the MVP, 12th-most in the Majors, then 769 runs in 2019 when Yelich finished second, 15th-most in MLB. They scored just 247 runs in the truncated 2020 season when Yelich’s production first dipped, a mark that fell to 26th overall and resulted in a 29-31 season that barely qualified them for an expanded playoffs. Last season, they made the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season while scoring 738 runs, which landed them back at 12th overall in the Majors. In other words, the Brewers offense was about as good as it’s ever been with Yelich on the roster, despite Yelich himself producing barely better than average.
The Brewers under Counsell and GM David Stearns have always been a pitching-first organization, and that’s likely to continue in 2022 behind a rotation that’s among the most well-rounded in all of baseball. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta boast mind-bending pure stuff, but they’re buttressed by a pair of steady-eddies in Adrian Houser and Lauer, Urias’ traveling mate from San Diego. When healthy, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Brent Suter make up the core of a formidable bullpen, not to mention Aaron Ashby, the hard-throwing, bespectacled southpaw who appears to be the next big arm to establish himself on Counsell’s staff.
Pitching dominance, however, now more than ever, is prone to whims of injury and year-to-year variance. Less length from starters means spreading the innings load to more pitchers than in days’ past, and that means spreading the potential for variance around as well. There are plusses and minuses to meting out that responsibility to so many arms. The Brewers pitching staff has ranked among the game’s best by fWAR the past two seasons, but nothing is guaranteed on the hill. The offense will need to carry their own water.
There are paths to Milwaukee scoring enough runs to cover even an unforeseen letdown from the pitching staff, but as of right now, they’re gambles. Obviously, a bounceback season from Yelich would do wonders. A rejuvenated Cain in his age-36 season would be amazing, however unlikely. Even another season from Adames at his Milwaukee potency would register as a pleasant surprise.
The list goes on. They need Keston Hiura to find the form that made him a top prospect bat. They need Hunter Renfroe and Tyrone Taylor to make up the production left behind by the departed Avisail Garcia. They need Rowdy Tellez to maintain his role as a power force, though year-to-year consistency has eluded the southpaw slugger in the past.
Urias, now stationed at the hot corner, might be the safest best of them all. Heading into last season, the sheen had worn off of Urias, and the prospect of his realizing the potential that was once heaped upon his 5’9″ frame was as unlikely as any of Milwaukee’s annual offensive gambits, and yet here we are. The Brewers not only need Urias to be a star, but it’s not wholly unfair to expect it.
The Padres’ Rotation Depth Should Draw Plenty Of Trade Interest
As fans look forward to the inevitable post-lockout transaction bonanza, those hoping to see their favorite teams add to the starting rotation are often focused on the Reds and Athletics as potential trade partners — and with good reason. Both Oakland (Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas) and Cincinnati (Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle) have three pitchers whom they could feasibly trade in order to cut payroll and add some young talent to the organization. The Marlins, too, are an oft-suggested trade partner for teams needing starting pitchers, even after already dealing Zach Thompson to the Pirates in December’s Jacob Stallings swap.
That said, while those three teams draw much of the focus, the asking prices there will be high. Teams will want alternatives, and the Padres are likely to receive a good bit of interest from those clubs. That’s not because San Diego is embarking on any sort of rebuilding effort, but rather because of the team’s plethora of rotation options and the ever-aggressive, never-rule-anything-out nature of president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller.
Since taking the reins in San Diego, Preller has taken multiple offseasons or trade deadlines by storm with a flurry of activity. The “rock star GM” moniker bestowed upon him by Matt Kemp has become infamous, but Preller repeatedly lives up to the spirit of the nickname by demonstrating a flair for bold, dramatic strikes that reshape the organization.
The Padres staff struggled through injuries and some surprising ineffectiveness in 2021 but is still deep with arms who either have ample big league success or considerable upside. San Diego’s 2022 rotation currently projects to include Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and NPB returnee Nick Martinez, who agreed to a surprising four-year, $20MM contract prior to the lockout after a dominant showing in Japan.
Beyond that quintet, the Padres could have another full rotation’s worth of intriguing arms, albeit some of whom have had some recent struggles and/or injuries. Right-hander Dinelson Lamet has had the most recent success of the bunch, utterly dominating in the shortened 2020 season — 2.09 ERA 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate in 69 innings — before a UCL strain kept him from contributing in the postseason. He missed much of the 2021 season on the injured list and wasn’t as effective upon his return, but he’d be a front-of-the-rotation talent if his arm held up. The Padres may use him in relief this season, but there’s a big ceiling to dream on with Lamet, who’s controlled via arbitration through 2023.
Righty Chris Paddack has yet to regain the form he showed in a 2019 debut campaign that saw him in Rookie of the Year contention before falling to injury. He was diagnosed with a slight UCL tear late last season but is expected ready for the ’22 campaign. Paddack registered a pedestrian 4.95 ERA in 167 1/3 innings from 2020-21, but he’s still only 26 years old and boasts one of MLB’s lowest walk rates, in addition to a fastball that averages nearly 95 mph. He’s controlled through 2024.
Lefty Adrian Morejon, one of the prize signings from Preller’s international signing blitz during the Padres’ rebuild, will be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2022. His MLB experience is limited, but he’s still just 22 and ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects for a half decade while rising through the system. He’s still under club control through 2025.
Another southpaw, Ryan Weathers, was the No. 7 overall draft pick back in 2018. Though he only recently turned 22, Weathers debuted in the Majors this past season and held his own early on before a rocky finish. Weathers carried a 2.73 ERA (albeit with shakier peripheral marks) through 62 2/3 innings before being clobbered over the final two months and closing out the season with a 5.32 earned run average. It was a rough finish, but Weathers is a 22-year-old former top pick and top prospect with a strong (albeit brief, thanks to the wiped-out 2020 season) minor league track record.
Twenty-five-year-old right-hander Reiss Knehr doesn’t come with the prospect fanfare that some others in the system do, but he still rode a strong minor league effort to his Major League debut late in the season. A 20th-round pick in 2018, Knehr notched a 3.57 ERA with strong ground-ball rates through 75 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A before getting the call to the big leagues. His 4.97 ERA and 20-to-20 K/BB ratio in the Majors won’t wow anyone, but it was only 29 innings for a 24-year-old rookie who’d never pitched above A-ball coming into the season.
Most enigmatically, southpaw MacKenzie Gore remains in the Padres’ system but has seen his stock plummet. A former No. 3 overall pick who entered the 2020 campaign ranked among the top 10 prospects in all of baseball, the 22-year-old Gore (23 next month) has yet to receive a call to the big leagues even as the Padres have repeatedly dealt with injuries and tapped into the depths of their system.
Gore got out to a dismal start with Triple-A El Paso in 2021, struggling enough for the Padres to push the reset button by taking him out of games and sending him to their spring facility to work on refining his mechanics. When he took the mound again late in the season, Gore looked stronger, posting a 2.67 ERA with a 43-to-16 K/BB ratio in 30 1/3 innings (six starts) across Rookie ball, Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s fallen completely off Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list, but Gore is still young and teeming with raw talent. A few sharp months in Triple-A would have him right back on the cusp of the Majors.
That’s not even the full extent of San Diego’s near-MLB depth, either. Righty Pedro Avila may ultimately end up in the bullpen but has had some Double-A/Triple-A success and already gotten his feet wet in the Majors. Right-hander Adrian Martinez, 25, was selected to the 40-man roster prior to the lockout after dominating in Double-A and reaching Triple-A for the first time in 2021.
Thanks to a slew of win-now trades, the Padres’ farm system isn’t what it once was, but the wealth of pitching depth they’ve accumulated is nevertheless impressive. It also provides Preller and his lieutenants with fodder to make virtually any type of trade imaginable, and history has shown us that more often than not, Preller’s Padres will do just that. The nice part, however, is that there’s no pressure to move any one specific individual. Each of Paddack, Morejon, Weathers, Knehr, Gore, Avila and Martinez has minor league options remaining, so there’s no “on-the-bubble” pitcher who runs the risk of being exposed to waivers at the end of Spring Training.
With so many rotation options on hand, there’s any number of avenues the Padres could pursue following the transaction freeze. Holding onto the lot is, of course, a perfectly defensible route to chart, but even if the Padres aren’t actively shopping pitchers, other teams will come calling. Pitching-needy teams like the Nationals, Twins, Rangers, for instance, might like to get their hands on someone like Paddack or Weathers — a controllable arm without an immediate path to regular innings on the MLB roster in San Diego.
It’s also worth recalling the multiple points at which it was reported that the Padres had explored the possibility of getting out from under the remainder of Eric Hosmer‘s contract. Both the Rangers and the Cubs at least entertained the possibility of taking on Hosmer as part of a deal that would net them a high-end prospect, and while there’s no guarantee those specific talks will be rekindled, it’s easy to dream up scenarios where Hosmer would be packaged with some young pitching to help facilitate a deal. Similar scenarios with Wil Myers make some sense, too.
To be clear, the Padres don’t need to move any of their rotation depth. Beyond the fact that all of the candidates listed here have options remaining (outside of the projected Opening Day quintet), San Diego will soon have a need for some new blood in the starting staff. Both Musgrove and Clevinger are free agents after the 2022 season. Snell and Darvish are signed through 2023 (the same point at which Lamet can first become a free agent). They’ll need some of these young arms to step up and solidify themselves as long-term options.
Still, the Padres are typically among the most aggressive and active clubs in baseball, and few teams have such a deep reserve of near-MLB rotation candidates. At the very least, other clubs throughout the league are going to be trying to pry some pitching loose from San Diego — particularly now that the free-agent market has been largely picked over. There’s a whole lot of focus on the available starters in Oakland and Cincinnati, but asking prices will be high there, and teams still in need of pitching are going to be mining the market for alternatives. San Diego has more of those than most.
MLBTR Poll: Predicting Michael Conforto’s Contract
Whenever teams are again permitted to make major league transactions, clubs in search of corner outfield help will have to sort through a still-strong class. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki are unsigned, as is third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. All those players seem in line for significant multi-year contracts, but it’s not as clear whether that’ll be the case for Michael Conforto.
Conforto looked to be on the path to a huge deal after hitting .265/.369/.495 (133 wRC+) between 2017-20. Set to hit free agency in advance of his age-29 campaign, a nine-figure contract didn’t seem out of the question at the start of last season. Yet Conforto went to post his worst results since 2016, a .232/.344/.384 mark with 14 home runs over 479 plate appearances.
That offensive output was still six percentage points better than the league average, by measure of wRC+. The former tenth overall pick walked in a robust 12.3% of his trips to the dish to keep his on-base percentage at a respectable level. He played his home games in Citi Field, one of the more pitcher-friendly environments around the league. Yet for a player limited to the corner outfield, a 106 wRC+ is more fine than especially impressive.
Teams will have to determine how to weigh Conforto’s platform year against his prior four-year run of strong play. From a process perspective, there are some reasons for optimism. Last season’s 21.7% strikeout rate was a personal low, a couple points lower than the league mark. As mentioned, his plate discipline remained strong. His rates of hard contact and barrels (essentially hard-hit batted balls at the optimal angle for power production) were down a tick from his best years but still above-average. It wouldn’t be surprising if Conforto rights the ship moving forward, particularly if he signs with a club that plays in a more hitter-favorable setting.
So Conforto should still be an appealing free agent target, but he’s coming off a much worse platform year than both Castellanos and Schwarber. A long-term investment in Conforto probably feels riskier to teams now than it would’ve eight months ago. And any signing club will have to forfeit a draft pick, since the Washington native received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.
There wasn’t much indication as to where Conforto might end up prior to the lockout. The Marlins were the only club known to have substantive interest. Miami already signed Avisaíl García, but they’re reportedly still on the hunt for an addition in the grass. Beyond the Fish, the clubs reaching out to Conforto’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain a mystery. So that doesn’t offer much indication about how robust the market might be.
Nor is it clear how much money Conforto and his reps are seeking. Schwarber, though, is reportedly looking for a three-year deal in the $60MM range. The two players were born just five days apart in March 1993, and they’ve been similarly productive since the start of 2019. But with Schwarber coming off the much better platform year, it seems likely he’ll land the larger guarantee of the two whenever they both put pen to paper.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected Conforto would sign a one-year deal in the $20MM range in hopes of a bounceback season before re-testing the market after 2022. That could be a possibility, although his decision to turn down New York’s $18.4MM qualifying offer suggests he wanted to explore multi-year opportunities (or at least loftier single-year proposals) from suitors around the league.
Where does the MLBTR readership expect Conforto’s contract to end up?
For How Many Years Will Michael Conforto Sign?
-
One 33% (1,746)
-
Three 32% (1,706)
-
Two 22% (1,156)
-
Four or more 14% (720)
Total votes: 5,328
In What Range Will Michael Conforto's Guarantee Fall?
-
Between $18.4MM and $30MM 34% (1,667)
-
Under $18.4MM 21% (1,032)
-
Between $45MM and $60MM 17% (813)
-
Between $30MM and $45MM 15% (714)
-
Between $60MM and $75MM 8% (397)
-
Over $75MM 5% (256)
Total votes: 4,879
How AL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2021
We covered the NL list on Sunday, and now let’s look at what the American League’s 15 teams have thus far done to upgrade their weakest positions (as gauged by the bWAR metric) of the 2021 season…
Angels (Shortstop, -1.0 bWAR): No team in baseball had a lower non-pitching bWAR than the Angels’ 7.1 number in 2021. Beyond Jose Iglesias‘ woes at shortstop, Los Angeles also received sub-replacement production in left field (-0.7), right field (-0.2) and third base (-0.1). Considering Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon spent much of last season on the injured list, their returns should instantly shore things up, and top prospects Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh are also expected to play bigger roles in the outfield mix. This leaves shortstop as the biggest problem area, and while Tyler Wade was acquired from the Yankees, Wade might be better suited for a utility role — the Angels also continued to have interest in Chris Taylor after Wade was acquired, and before Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers. With the Halos continuing to focus on pitching, it remains to be seen if they’re also willing to make a big investment in the shortstop position.
Astros (Catcher, 0.6 bWAR): Houston isn’t likely to tinker with the defensively-sound Martin Maldonado/Jason Castro tandem, yet more will be expected at the plate, particularly from Maldonado. While never even a league-average hitter during his career, Maldonado particularly struggled last year, batting only .171/.272/.300 over 426 plate appearances.
Athletics (Designated hitter, 0.5 bWAR): Between league-average offense from Jed Lowrie and subpar production from Mitch Moreland and Khris Davis, the DH spot was a weak link in Oakland’s lineup. All three players are free agents are may not return, and this may just be part of the forthcoming roster overhaul as the A’s are reportedly looking to cut payroll. In this regard, the DH spot may be on the back burner to some extent, as the A’s might just use in-house options or a low-cost veteran or two to rotate at-bats in the position. The DH barely edged out shortstop (0.6 bWAR) as the Athletics’ weakest position of 2021, but Elvis Andrus is currently expected to return at shortstop, given the difficulties involved in trading him.
Blue Jays (Third base and center field, 1.5 bWAR each): A healthy season from George Springer should take care of the center field spot, leaving the Jays to deal with third base and the second-base vacancy that now exists due to Marcus Semien‘s departure. The consensus feeling is that Toronto will deploy a Cavan Biggio/Santiago Espinal platoon at one of the two infield spots and find another everyday player for the other, and the Jays are open to thinking big, as they were reportedly interested in Corey Seager before Seager signed with the Rangers.
Guardians (Catcher, -0.3 bWAR): Cleveland chose to decline its $7MM club option on Roberto Perez, leaving the Guardians with a tandem of Austin Hedges (who was tendered a contract and is projected for a $3.8MM salary) and minor league signing Sandy Leon. While there’s still plenty of room for improvement, the Guardians have traditionally prioritized defense and game-calling ahead of offensive production from their catchers, so it’s possible they might only add another veteran on a minors deal to provide Leon some competition.
Mariners (Center field, -1.0 bWAR): The M’s only got 1.6 total bWAR from their outfield, the second-lowest total of any team. Left field produced only 0.2 bWAR, while right field was a much more respectable 2.4 bWAR (thanks in large part to Mitch Haniger). With Kyle Lewis hopefully healthy, Jarred Kelenic hopefully adjusted to big league pitching after a tough rookie season, and uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez hopefully ready for his MLB debut in 2022, Seattle’s outfield issues may resolve themselves. However, since that’s a lot of “hopefully” for a team intent on ending its playoff drought, the Mariners have been linked to such major outfield free agent targets as Kris Bryant and Seiya Suzuki.
Orioles (Second base, -2.0 bWAR): With the bullpen delivering -1.5 bWAR and third base -0.9 bWAR, it took some doing for the Orioles’ second base revolving door to take the backhanded top prize as the least-productive position on a 110-loss team. Rougned Odor was signed to be at least a placeholder at the position, though if the former Ranger does enjoy any first-half success, the O’s could certainly flip him at the trade deadline. Recent international signing Cesar Prieto is an intriguing wild card for the second base job later in the season, if Prieto is able to make a quick transition from Cuban baseball to affiliated ball.
Rangers (Left field, -0.7 bWAR): For all the money they’ve spent this winter, the Rangers haven’t directly addressed the left field spot, though the signing of Kole Calhoun (likely slated for regular right field duty) should improve the outfield mix as a whole. Texas is another team known to be in the Seiya Suzuki race, and given how aggressive the Rangers have already been, pursuits of Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, or other major bats or trade targets can’t be ruled out. 2021 All-Star Adolis Garcia could be an option in left field if the Rangers don’t use him in center, and beyond Garcia, the Rangers’ internal left field options include Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun, and Eli White. Beyond the left field spot, Texas has already signed Jon Gray, but pitching stands out as another major need on the to-do list — Rangers starters combined for a -0.1 bWAR in 2021, while the bullpen was an even 0.0.
Rays (First base, 1.6 bWAR): As deep and versatile as the Rays were in 2021, it isn’t surprising that they had the highest bWAR of any of the “worst” positions on this list. The Yandy Diaz/Ji-Man Choi platoon was unspectacular but solid, though it is interesting that Tampa Bay has already traded away other infield depth options (Joey Wendle, Jordan Luplow, Mike Brosseau) in respective deals with the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Brewers. This could be a hint at a forthcoming move, or perhaps the Rays were just shuffling the deck as always with their roster depth. For instance, Brandon Lowe could be used at first base more often now that Vidal Brujan and Taylor Walls are ready for bigger roles on the MLB roster.
Red Sox (First base, 0.1 bWAR): If Bobby Dalbec‘s second-half surge truly represents a breakout, then the Sox may already have their answer at first base. Nonetheless, it stands to reason that the Red Sox will add depth in the form of a (probably left-handed hitting) multi-position player, as that player could then contribute elsewhere on the diamond once top prospect Triston Casas makes his expected MLB debut at some point in 2022. There have also been some whispers that the Red Sox might have a bold move up their sleeves, so we can’t rule the possibility that Boston could acquire someone like Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson, or maybe land a third baseman and shift Rafael Devers over to first base.
Royals (Right field, -1.2 bWAR): Kansas City didn’t get much from right field or the corner infield spots, as third base (-1.0 bwAR) and first base (-0.7 bWAR) were also sub-replacement level positions. Hunter Dozier is a key figure in this equation, as he dragged down all three positions with his rough showing in 2021. Carlos Santana also contributed to the first base woes with the worst season of his career, but the veteran slugger believes he can rebound now that he is past the leg injuries that hampered him last year. The Royals have help on the way in star prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto, and with Pratto a defensive standout at first base, Santana might find himself relegated to DH or part-time duty unless he can recapture his old form. Witt is primarily a shortstop but he has played some third base, giving the Royals some flexibility in handling third base and right field depending where any of Witt, Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, or Whit Merrifield are lined up on a regular basis. It’s possible K.C. might pick up a relatively inexpensive veteran bat to lessen the pressure on the young kids, but the Royals aren’t likely to make a big position-player investment until they see what they really have in Witt, Pratto, and Kyle Isbel.
Tigers (Shortstop, -0.5 bWAR): It was widely expected that the Tigers would make a play for one of the big shortstops in the free agent market, and that box was checked when Javier Baez was signed to a six-year, $140MM deal. With star prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene on the cusp of the majors, their arrivals should boost some other weak positions in Detroit’s lineup. Tigers second basemen accounted for -0.2 bWAR, but with Torkelson playing first base, Jonathan Schoop can move over to the keystone. Likewise, Greene is expected to play center field, which allows for a cleaner fit of Akil Baddoo as a left fielder, which will help the Tigers’ collective 0.3 bWAR in left last year. Of note — Detroit had the lowest designated hitter bWAR (0.1) of any American League team, as even seven NL teams got a little more from their DH position in interleague competition than the Tigers did over 81 home games. It makes for a bit of a conundrum with Miguel Cabrera, as his knees won’t allow him to take regular duty at first base, yet Cabrera hit decidedly better as a first baseman than as a DH last season.
Twins (Starting pitching, -1.4 bWAR): Dylan Bundy was signed to a one-year/$5MM contract, but given Bundy’s own struggles in 2021, Minnesota still has a lot of work to do in rebuilding its rotation. A big splash can’t be ruled out, considering the Twins did express some interest in Robbie Ray prior to Ray signing with the Mariners, but it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will make a major long-term commitment to more than one new pitcher. Beyond that hypothetical addition, any other new arms will likely take the form of shorter-term acquisitions (such as trade targets with one or two remaining years of control) or rebound-candidate free agents like Bundy.
White Sox (Right field, 0.6 bWAR): While second base is seen as Chicago’s biggest problem area, the Sox at least got 0.9 bWAR out of the keystone last year. Then again, between Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets, the White Sox have a lot more options to at least make do in right field, whereas the depth chart at second base is the re-signed Leury Garcia and not much else. A free agent like Josh Harrison or Jed Lowrie could at least be a stopgap, but with not much second base help remaining on the open market, the White Sox certainly seem like a team that would be looking to swing a notable trade.
Yankees (Left field, -0.1 bWAR): Powered largely by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees combined for 7.4 bWAR from the right field and DH positions in the 2021. The other seven non-pitching positions combined? Only 5.4 fWAR, with left field standing out as the one sub-replacement total of the group. New York hasn’t done much in general this winter, but in regards to the outfield, they parted ways with Clint Frazier and added Ender Inciarte as minor league depth. Many of the Yankees’ outfield questions circle around Aaron Hicks‘ health or whether or not Joey Gallo hits better over a full season in the Bronx, and another return for Brett Gardner can never be ruled out. However, the outfield certainly stands out as a spot for the Yankees to make a splashy addition, if they’re willing to move beyond their recent modest (at least by Yankees standards) spending output.