Trade Candidate: Tyler Glasnow
The Rays find themselves in a tricky position with regards to Tyler Glasnow. The 6’8″ right-hander is probably the team’s most talented pitcher. Last season, he looked on the way towards solidifying himself among the best in the sport. Through his first 14 starts and 88 innings, Glasnow posted a 2.66 ERA with a fantastic 36.2% strikeout rate and a solid 7.9% walk percentage.
Glasnow has always had the raw stuff to miss bats in droves, but as he entered his mid-20s, he’d seemingly found the control to match. He has the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unfortunately, his health hasn’t yet allowed him reach that upside. Glasnow missed a good chunk of the 2019 season due to a forearm strain. He stayed healthy during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he didn’t make it through 2021 unscathed.
Last June, Glasnow suffered a partial tear of the UCL in his throwing arm. After unsuccessfully attempting to rehab the injury, the California native underwent Tommy John surgery two months later. That obviously brought his 2021 season to a close, and it’ll likely cost him all of 2022 as well. The timing of that procedure leaves the Tampa Bay front office with a decision to make regarding his long-term future in the organization.
Glasnow is arbitration eligible for the third of four times this offseason. He’s on track to hit free agency after the 2023 season. With next season likely a wash, Glasnow’s club is looking at one year (2023) of production before he can test the open market. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM salary this year, and he’d likely earn the same amount the following season.
So that’s around $12MM over two years for one season of Glasnow’s services. Given the caliber of pitcher he is, that could be a bargain if he returns to form in 2023. Yet as Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote last summer, it’s not clear how heavy a workload a team could reasonably anticipate Glasnow to work that year even if his recovery goes as planned. While he shouldn’t have much issue being ready for the start of 2023 — barring unexpected setbacks in his rehab process — he might not be equipped to shoulder a 180-inning workload. Between injuries and the pandemic, Glasnow will have tossed just 241 2/3 MLB innings between 2019-22, including the postseason (assuming he misses all of next year).
As is typically the case with the Rays, there’s also their team spending limitations to consider. Tampa Bay entered last season with a player payroll a bit south of $67MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including arbitration projections, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2022 commitments in the $84MM range. That’s not much compared to the rest of the league, but it’d be a franchise-record sum for Tampa Bay. Is ownership willing to support that kind of expenditure entering the season? Even if so, would the front office prefer to reallocate Glasnow’s projected money as they attempt to make a run at their fifth consecutive 90-win showing?
The Rays aren’t going to move Glasnow solely to shed salary. Were that the case, they’d have simply non-tendered him before November’s deadline. But they seem likely to consider trade offers, particularly if they can get help for 2022 in return. Rosenthal and Lin reported Tampa Bay and the Cubs kicked around trade formulations involving Glasnow and Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel before last summer’s deadline. Those obviously didn’t come to fruition, but the Rays will probably look into similar possibilities after the lockout.
Any team with designs on contending in 2023 could be a plausible trade partner. A retooling organization like the Cubs or Nationals could take on a few million dollars during a non-competitive season with an eye towards a quick rebound after selling off pieces last summer. An immediate contender with more near-term financial flexibility than the Rays have could see this as a buy-low opportunity. Trades of players this talented between contenders are uncommon, but given the Rays’ financial situation and the timing of Glasnow’s surgery, a deal during the expected post-lockout transactions frenzy wouldn’t be surprising.
The Rangers Shouldn’t Ease Up After The Lockout
Many teams effectively sat out the free-agent market prior to the lockout, and the Rangers took full advantage of the lack of activity from some of the sport’s top spenders. Led by longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, second-year GM Chris Young and an ownership group that clearly isn’t interested in a protracted rebuild, the Rangers doled out more than half a billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun. For most clubs, spending more than $500MM in free agency would seem a defensible point at which to call it a day, but if the Rangers are serious about returning to contention sooner than later, they’re not likely to be satisfied with, ahem, “just” Seager, Semien, Gray, etc.
The 2021 Rangers, to put things charitably, were a disaster. Texas lost 102 games and batted a combined .232/.294/.375. The resulting 84 wRC+ (indicating that their collective offense was 16 percent below league average) tied for the third-worst mark in MLB. Rangers hitters ranked 28th in total runs scored, 26th in home runs, 29th in walk percentage and dead last in on-base percentage.
If the Rangers boasted a deep and talented pitching staff, perhaps the additions of Seager and Semien alone would be enough to foster hope, but we know that’s not the case. Texas starters ranked 28th in the Majors in ERA (5.33) and FIP (5.19) alike — and that’s including the contributions of the since-traded Kyle Gibson, who provided 113 innings of 2.87 ERA/3.76 FIP ball.
The signing of Gray gives the Rangers a big arm on which they can dream, but Gray, Dane Dunning and Taylor Hearn are the only pitchers on the roster who reached 100 innings and posted even passable results. It’s questionable to even include Hearn in that trio, as nearly all of his success came out of the bullpen (5.82 ERA in the rotation versus 3.54 out of the ‘pen in near-identical samples of innings). The only pitcher currently on the roster who posted an ERA better than Dunning’s 4.55 out of the rotation last season is right-hander A.J. Alexy, who logged a 2.79 ERA in 19 1/3 innings but also walked nearly as many hitters as he struck out (13 walks, 14 punchouts).
Things are a bit rosier in the bullpen, where Texas will welcome back injured closer Jose Leclerc, who missed 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. Impressive young righty Jonathan Hernandez is likely to return at some point in 2022 as well after missing this past season following his own Tommy John procedure. The Rangers can also look forward to full seasons from standout rookie Joe Barlow and NPB returnee Spencer Patton, who began the 2021 season in Triple-A but pitched effectively following his June call to the bigs.
Suffice it to say, even with the big splashes they’ve made to date, the Rangers don’t yet look like a contender. That’s not news to the Texas front office, which made these moves despite surely being aware that even if everything breaks right in ’22, they’re at best a long-shot to vie for a playoff berth.
That said, there’s already indication that the Rangers aren’t planning to take their foot off the gas when transactions resume. Texas has been linked to star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who has been posted by the Hiroshima Carp and will sign with an MLB club once the transaction freeze lifts. The Rangers were also reportedly looking into the asking price on division-rival star Matt Olson, and they chatted with the Reds about Cincinnati’s collection of available starting pitchers. Manager Chris Woodward even went so far as to acknowledge that the team has been in contact with free agent Clayton Kershaw — a Dallas-area resident who is a first-time free agent this winter.
Onlookers may question how the Rangers can afford this level of spending spree. However, Texas has gone to great lengths to pare its payr0ll in recent years, and rather than “rebuild” through three to five dismal seasons of tanking and cultivating draft picks, it seems the Rangers plan to instead use their fiscal might in conjunction with a pair of lofty draft statuses (2021 and 2022) in hopes of an accelerated retooling.
In terms of club payroll, the Rangers only have about $127MM committed to next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure will drop to around $80MM in 2023. For a club that has previously run payrolls as lofty as $165MM (in 2017), there’s a good bit of financial leeway for further additions — particularly those that could impact the roster beyond the 2022 season.
A multi-year deal for the 27-year-old Suzuki, for instance, makes good sense for a Texas club that currently figures to shuffle Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun and Eli White through left field and DH at-bats. Texas is also among the more reasonable fits for 29-year-old lefty Carlos Rodon, who was one of the best pitchers on the planet in 2021 but ended the year with some troubling shoulder concerns. Agent Scott Boras — who also represents both Seager and Semien — has said Rodon is seeking a multi-year deal. We’ve seen the Rangers issue some surprising three-year deals in the past (e.g. Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Gibson) — albeit in the $30MM range, which is likely a good ways south of where Rodon is aiming. Trade candidates like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez and other starters with multiple years of control should also be squarely in the Rangers’ sights, particularly if any are amenable to extensions.
Relatively youthful free agent pitchers and trade targets with multiple years of club control (and/or an openness to an extension) will be paramount, given the lack of high-end pitching prospects knocking on the door in Arlington. This past season’s No. 2 overall draft pick, Jack Leiter, could be a fast mover but has yet to throw a professional pitch. Righty Cole Winn, a 2019 first-rounder, briefly reached Triple-A last season and could eventually give the team a mid-rotation arm. That’s about the extent of the team’s high-upside pitching prospects who are at least within striking distance of the big leagues, so pairing some veterans with Gray and Dunning will be crucial if Texas hopes to turn things around come 2023.
Around the diamond, things are a bit more steady. Adding Seager and Semien gives the team a pair of lineup linchpins, and top prospect Josh Jung should debut in 2022, pushing slick-fielding Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a utility role in which he could thrive. There’s room for a bat like Suzuki in left field, as previously alluded to, and the team’s interest in Olson suggests a willingness to upgrade over Nate Lowe at first base (or at least to push Lowe to a DH role). Catcher Jonah Heim has a brutal season at the dish in 2021, but the Rangers are hoping prospect Sam Huff can eventually seize that spot.
By 2023, the Rangers will be free of the dead-money commitments owed to Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. The only arbitration raise of any note slated for the 2023 payroll (and for the 2022 payroll, for that matter), is that of Kiner-Falefa. Semien, Seager and Gray are the only three players whose ’23 salaries are guaranteed. You can argue that it’s wiser to wait until next offseason, but if that were the plan, the team wouldn’t have already spent to the extent it has. To give their aggressive mindset the best chance to succeed, the Rangers should add at least one more arm and one more bat to the mix. They certainly have the payroll capacity to do just that.
How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2021
Since the lockout has resulted in close to two very quiet months of offseason activity, teams will have plenty to do once the Major League transactions freeze is finally over, including addressing many of the positions on this list. However, some teams have already taken steps to fix their more glaring weak spots from the 2021 season (as determined by bWAR). Let’s take a look at the progress that has been made, with the note that we’ll ignore the DH position for this look at National League teams…
Braves (Catcher, -1.3 bWAR): With Travis d’Arnaud on the injured list for much of the season, Atlanta turned to a grab bag of catchers to tread water before d’Arnaud returned in August and solidified the position through the Braves’ run to the World Series. Since d’Arnaud is always an injury risk, the Braves signed Manny Pina to a two-year deal, adding a veteran complement rather than rely on a larger role for youngsters William Contreras or Shea Langeliers.
Brewers (First base -0.5 bWAR): Though Milwaukee didn’t get much from first base as a whole all year, Rowdy Tellez did hit pretty well after being acquired in a midseason trade from the Blue Jays. On paper, Tellez will be the Brew Crew’s first choice at the position, with the newly-acquired Mike Brosseau and former top prospect Keston Hiura acting as right-handed hitting complements. There’s some flexibility here for the Brewers to adjust if, say, Hiura can escape his two-year-long slump, or if the team decides to make another in-season trade for a bigger bat.
Cardinals (Relief pitching, 1.0 bWAR): It is a testament to the Cards’ general depth that their “worst” position was a comparatively solid 1.0 bWAR, as while their hitting was generally middle-of-the-pack, even their weakest bats still contributed with excellent defense. That leaves the bullpen as the relative weak link, and St. Louis has thus far re-signed veteran lefty T.J. McFarland and brought in Kyle Ryan on a minor league deal, while another veteran in Luis Garcia left to join the Padres. It’s probably more likely that the Cardinals still stick to somewhat lower-level transactions to augment their pen, as the team has some young starters on the farm that could be deployed in relief roles, if they aren’t needed for the rotation. Giovanny Gallegos pitched well in the closer’s role, though St. Louis get some added depth via a veteran with ninth-inning experience.
Cubs (Starting pitching, -1.2 bWAR): After unloading most of their veterans at the trade deadline, the Cubs indicated they weren’t willing to head into rebuild mode just yet, as they signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year, $71MM deal and claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the salary-dumping Reds. Neither represents a major long-term commit (Stroman can opt out after the 2023 season and Miley is under contract only through 2022), yet Wrigleyville’s rotation already looks much better on paper. Kyle Hendricks has another spot claimed, and the Cubs could use any of Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, Justin Steele, or top prospect Brailyn Marquez for the final two spots. Alternatively, Chicago could acquire a fairly inexpensive veteran arm to either be penciled into the fourth rotation spot, or to provide further competition for those younger pitchers.
Diamondbacks (Relief pitching, -3-3 bWAR): There weren’t many areas of strength for the 110-loss D’Backs, yet the bullpen was easily the team’s biggest issue. Even though the Diamondbacks face an uphill battle in contending next year, the relief corps was dire enough that Arizona felt the need for a notable bullpen signing, adding Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM. Melancon might end up being the Diamondbacks’ biggest investment in the pen, as the club has also added Keynan Middleton, Edwin Uceta, Zack Burdi, and Kyle Nelson on minor league deals and waiver claims, and could pursue a similar low-cost path with other relief additions.
Dodgers (Center field, 0.8 bWAR): Cody Bellinger‘s brutal 2021 season makes him a big question mark heading into 2022. The Dodgers aren’t ready to give up on the former NL MVP, yet it’s probably safe to assume their decision to re-sign super-utilityman Chris Taylor was at least partially inspired by the need to have a backup plan in place should Bellinger again struggle at the plate. Since L.A. probably doesn’t want to use Mookie Betts or AJ Pollock in center more than they have to, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dodgers target another center field-capable utility type or maybe just a pure outfielder in their post-lockout moves.
Giants (Second base, 1.6 bWAR): This is the best bWAR of any team’s “worst” position, which isn’t surprising given how the Giants expertly juggled their roster en route to 107 victories. Tommy La Stella spending a big chunk of the year on the IL contributed to the relative lack of second base production, and a healthy La Stella in a platoon with Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores be the in-house answer to improving the keystone. As always, however, the Giants figure to explore their options for multi-positional names both small and large, and San Francisco has the payroll space to make a bigger infield addition if they chose that path.
Marlins (Catcher, -1.5 bWAR): With the combination of Jorge Alfaro, Sandy Leon, Alex Jackson, and Chad Wallach providing little help behind the plate, the Marlins went for the big swing and acquired Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. Miami had to give up a package of three prospects to seal the deal, but giving up two controllable minor league arms was an acceptable price for a team with the Marlins’ pitching depth. The plan now is for Stallings’ strong defense and game-calling abilities to help aid Miami’s arms at the big league level.
Mets (Catcher, 0 bWAR): After signing James McCann to a four-year, $40.6MM deal last winter, the Mets expected a lot more than a .232/.294/.349 slash line over 412 plate appearances. With backup Tomas Nido not hitting much, New York will just have to hope that McCann needed some time to adjust to a new league, and that the backstop can return to his old All-Star form.
Nationals (Relief pitching, -4.6 bWAR): No team in any positional category had a lower number than the Washington bullpen’s -4.6 bWAR, and the Nats only subtracted from their relief corps in moving Daniel Hudson and Brad Hand as part of their deadline selloff. The Nationals have added some lower-level arms as depth, and this could wind up as their tactic later in the winter, as it isn’t yet clear if D.C. will use 2022 as a reset year or if they’ll make a larger push to contend.
Padres (Catcher, 0.4 bWAR): With the Marlins ready to move on from Alfaro, A.J. Preller picked up yet another player with former Rangers ties when San Diego acquired Alfaro from Miami just prior to the lockout. The Padres’ problems at catcher were largely due to an injury-riddled year from prospective starter Austin Nola, so assuming Nola is healthy and productive, the Padres might have something of a surplus at the position (between backup Victor Caratini and top prospect Luis Campusano) if Alfaro can get on track whatsoever. Campusano’s name was floated in some trade talks with the Cubs and Nationals back at the deadline, and he has been speculatively mentioned as a trade chip again this winter.
Phillies (Third base, -0.9 bWAR): Between the hot corner, the shortstop position (-0.5 bWAR), center field and left field (1.3 bWAR each), the Phillies have a lot of holes to fill prior to Opening Day. In theory, third base could be the easiest to address if the club decides to just stay the course with Alec Bohm, who followed up a great rookie season with a mediocre 2021 campaign. Bohm would hardly be the first player to rebound from a sophomore slump, but since shortstop is also a need, the Phillies might look to acquire a multi-positional infield type who could conceivably step in at either short or third base.
Pirates (Right field, -1.5 bWAR): Since the Bucs are still rebuilding, it isn’t clear if they’ll add any significant veteran upgrades at right field or any other position for 2022. If not, waiver pickup Greg Allen has joined Ben Gamel, Anthony Alford, and 2018 first-rounder Travis Swaggerty in the mix for playing time in the corner outfield positions.
Reds (Third base, -1.4 bWAR): The experiment of Eugenio Suarez as the Reds’ starting shortstop came to a quick end, yet Suarez struggled at the plate basically all season long, and Mike Moustakas (who began the year at third base) also struggled at the plate and battled injuries. There are some real warning signs about Suarez’s lack of offensive production over the last two years, and with Cincinnati perhaps looking more towards payroll cuts than roster upgrades this winter, there’s no easy fix other than hoping Suarez and/or Moustakas can get back on track.
Rockies (Center field, 0.9 bWAR): The outfield is a need in general for Colorado, and finding a center fielder represents a particular challenge since spacious Coors Field almost demands a good defender up the middle. None of their 2021 center field options in Garrett Hampson, Yonathan Daza, or Sam Hilliard exactly fit the bill, as Hampson may be the best fielder of the bunch but might end up in the infield rather than on the grass. The Rockies reportedly had interest in Kris Bryant before the lockout, and a major signing like that would certainly fill the need for a big bat in the lineup, even if Bryant could or would be deployed at several positions rather than be used at a full-time center fielder.
MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Kenley Jansen?
Kenley Jansen has been one of baseball’s best closers for a decade now. He recorded 25 saves in 2012 and hasn’t been below that number since, which the exception of his 11 saves in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s thrown at least 50 innings in the last ten full seasons and threw 24 1/3 in 2020. He’s never had an ERA higher than 3.71. His 350 saves rank him 13th on the all-time list.
There are some reasons to be bearish, however. For one, he just turned 34 years old, meaning it will become more challenging for him to maintain his previous levels of success in the future. He also just posted a walk rate of 12.9% in 2021, his worst such mark since his debut in 2010. But on the bullish side of things, he diversified his arsenal last year, reducing his cutter usage from previous levels of around 90% to just 58% in 2021. Despite the increased walk rate, he was largely effective, putting up an ERA of 2.22 and strikeout rate of 30.9%.
In MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents, Jansen was one of seven relievers to make the grade, coming in at #29 overall with a predicted contract of $26MM over two years. Five of those seven were able to secure deals before the lockout, as Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, Hector Neris and Mark Melancon are all off the board. That means Jansen and Ryan Tepera are the two best options remaining for teams that wish to upgrade their bullpens without having to give up anything in a trade. Jansen was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer by virtue of having previously received one in his career, meaning it will only take cash to land him.
Jansen would certainly upgrade any bullpen in the league and should garner plenty of interest given it likely won’t require a lengthy commitment to sign him. Even a team that doesn’t jump out as a slam-dunk contender can make a surprising splash on a reliever, such as when the Diamondbacks snapped up Melancon on a two-year deal, despite winning just 52 games last year. Still, the most logical suitor for Jansen would be a team in win-now mode with enough money to spend that they can afford paying him around $13MM per year. Let’s consider some speculative fits.
The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers, the only organization he’s ever known. Perhaps the most sensible prediction is that he just sticks with the team he’s played his entire career with. However, the Dodgers already have a strong bullpen and more urgent needs elsewhere on the roster, particularly the starting rotation. It can’t be ruled out that they let Kenley walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere.
The Cardinals have some uncertainty in their bullpen, as Alex Reyes led the team in saves last year but may be converted to the starting rotation in 2022. They already have a strong rotation and lineup, and seem content to not pursue shortstop upgrades. Perhaps upgrading the bullpen is the best avenue for improving the team as a whole.
The Red Sox seemed like they had their closer situation resolved when they extended Matt Barnes in July. At the time, Barnes was enjoying an excellent season, sitting on an ERA of 2.68. However, things went badly for him down the stretch and he ended up with an ERA of 3.79 by season’s end, even being left off Boston’s playoff roster at times. Adding Jansen could potentially stabilize a bullpen that’s fairly short on experience, though the club is also going to be looking to replace Hunter Renfroe‘s offensive production once the lockout is over.
The Astros are loaded in the rotation and their lineup. They could use a shortstop, either by bringing back Carlos Correa or some other option. However, they seem comfortable letting Jeremy Pena step forward as Correa’s heir apparent. The bullpen is already in good shape, but would certainly benefit from adding someone of Jansen’s caliber.
The Blue Jays had some bullpen issues in 2021, as their reliever corps finished 16th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, 12th in SIERA and 25th in fWAR. The club is reportedly planning to spend after the lockout, but they still could use upgrades elsewhere, particularly the infield.
The Giants have lots of payroll space and apparently want to spread it around, as opposed to making one big splash. This approach to team roster construction mirrors that of the Dodgers, the previous team of both Jansen and Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi. Perhaps they could spread their money around on another starter, an outfield bat and a reliever like Jansen. Jake McGee was the team leader in saves in 2021 with 31. Although he’ll be back with the Giants this year, he’s even older than Jansen, as he’ll turn 36 in August.
The Tigers have already been busy this offseason, upgrading their lineup with Javier Baez and Tucker Barnhart, and adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the rotation. If there’s still more cash in their wallet, going after Jansen would be an intriguing next step as their pitching staff is largely composed of younger players. Gregory Soto led the team in saves in 2021, though he has concerning walk rates.
The Rangers have spent even more than the Tigers, adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun and Jon Gray. If they still have more left to spend, the bullpen could definitely use an upgrade. In 2021, the club’s relievers finished 17th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 21st in xFIP, 21st in SIERA and 19th in fWAR.
The Mariners have been similarly aggressive recently, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier thus far. But with some really good relievers already on hand, if they do have another big move left, it might be going after a big bat such as Kris Bryant.
The Marlins went into the offseason needing offense, but they’ve already added Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings to their group of position players. Although they haven’t been big spenders in recent years, Jansen shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive. However, their deal for Garcia and the extension of Sandy Alcantara already went beyond anything else they’ve done recently.
The Mets have already gone absolutely wild this offseason, spending big bucks to upgrade their lineup and rotation. Although they already have a fine closer in Edwin Diaz, if they still have money left to spend, the bullpen is one area they haven’t targeted yet.
The Rockies could certainly use the help in their bullpen, but they have work to do on their lineup and rotation as well. It also has to be said that convincing pitchers to spend their time in the Colorado’s hitter-friendly atmosphere is always a challenge.
You never want to sleep on the Yankees, but they already have a great bullpen and have greater uncertainty elsewhere, particularly the infield.
The Guardians are currently set to run a very low payroll, even for them. However, their bullpen is already in pretty decent shape, and if they make a splash anywhere, it’s most likely going to be the outfield.
The Twins signalled their desire to bounceback from a nightmare season by spending big on an extension for Byron Buxton, but their starting rotation is a more obvious area of improvement.
The Angels probably already made their big bullpen move when they re-signed Iglesias, ditto with the Phillies and Knebel and Diamondbacks and Melancon.
The Brewers are already projected to have a payroll just $2MM shy of their franchise record and already have an excellent pitching staff all around.
The Cubs are in the beginnings of a rebuild, though they’ve already surprised some people by adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. Is there another surprising move up their sleeve?
Teams like the White Sox, Rays, Padres and Braves are already set to run franchise-high payrolls, which could make it challenging for them to win the bidding for Jansen’s services.
The Orioles and Pirates are deep in rebuilds and unlikely to beat the market on a top reliever like Jansen. The Royals are a bit closer to emerging from rebuilding status but still seem to be a long shot. The Athletics and Reds are reportedly more likely to subtract payroll after the lockout than add. The Nationals are retooling and haven’t yet shown any inclination towards spending big this offseason. However, as we saw with the Diamondbacks signing Melancon, surprises do happen. Perhaps a non-contender could sign him with the goal of trading him later.
A case could be made for any team in the league to add a talent like Jansen, but where do you think he will wind up? Have your say in our poll below.
Who Will Sign Kenley Jansen?
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Dodgers 28% (2,571)
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Blue Jays 11% (1,014)
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Red Sox 7% (636)
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Mets 6% (540)
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Cardinals 6% (510)
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Phillies 5% (472)
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Tigers 4% (342)
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Giants 3% (290)
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Angels 3% (280)
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Yankees 3% (272)
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Rangers 3% (250)
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Cubs 3% (249)
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Marlins 2% (222)
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Padres 2% (211)
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Mariners 2% (178)
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Braves 2% (167)
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Astros 1% (131)
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Nationals 1% (108)
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Twins 1% (97)
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Orioles 1% (95)
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White Sox 1% (81)
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Reds 1% (79)
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Brewers 1% (70)
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Guardians 1% (63)
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Athletics 1% (63)
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Pirates 1% (62)
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Royals 1% (58)
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Rays 0% (44)
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Diamondbacks 0% (43)
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Rockies 0% (25)
Total votes: 9,223
(poll link for app users)
Trade Candidate: J.D. Davis
After being drafted by the Astros in 2014, J.D. Davis utterly mashed in the minors but couldn’t contribute much in his first couple of MLB seasons for Houston. From 2014 to 2018, Davis produced a wRC+ of at least 134 at each stop from Low-A up to Triple-A. Those tantalizing offensive skills were enough to get him a taste of MLB action in 2017 and 2018, playing 67 total games over those two seasons, but hitting just .194/.260/.321.
Prior to the 2019 season, the Mets took a chance on Davis, acquiring him from the Astros in the hope that his bat would eventually click in the Majors. The gamble paid off immediately, as Davis had an excellent year at the plate in 2019, hitting 22 home runs and slashing .307/.369/.527, producing a wRC+ of 137 and 2.4 fWAR over 140 games. He slipped a bit in the shortened 2020 campaign, tallying just six homers but still hitting above league average with a line of .247/.371/.389, wRC+ of 118. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL due to issues with his left hand, but still hit well when he was healthy, as he produced a line of .285/.384/.436 for a wRC+ of 130 in 73 games.
As the season was winding down and the Mets were clearly not going to be a factor in the postseason, Davis underwent surgery to address the hand issue, with the expectation that he would be ready to go for spring training. At the time, Davis was quoted as saying that he felt he only had a 50/50 chance of returning to the Mets in 2022. “I know there’s going to be plenty of changes up and down from the front office all the way down to here,” Davis said. “My gut feeling? I could be out of here. That’s what it’s kind of leaning towards. But there’s a possibility that I could come back. I love New York. I love the fans. I love the city. It’s a flip of the coin.”
Davis likely suspected his name to come up in trade talks due to the crowded infield situation in Queens. Robinson Cano sat out 2021 due to his PED suspension but will be returning for 2022. If Cano were to get significant playing time at second base, that could have meant Jeff McNeil or Luis Guillorme getting some time at third base with Davis. But then to complicate things further, the Mets went on a wild spending spree before the lockout, which included adding Eduardo Escobar into the second/third base jumble. If the National League were to implement the designated hitter for 2022, that could theoretically open up at-bats for someone in this group. However, the Mets also added Mark Canha and Starling Marte to their outfield, alongside Brandon Nimmo, which bumps Dominic Smith into the DH conversation, as Pete Alonso should have most of the playing time at first base. All of that would seemingly only increase the odds of Davis, or someone else, being squeezed out.
Davis has played a little bit of first base and left field in his big league career but is primarily a third baseman. Most metrics consider him a poor defender, even at his primary position, with all of DRS, UZR and OAA making heavy use of the minus sign in assessing his glovework. The addition of the DH to the NL, if it comes to fruition, should theoretically help the Mets find a taker for Davis, as it would increase the ability of some team to utilize his bat without exposing themselves to his weakness in the field.
Despite his flaws, Davis has produced 4.5 fWAR over 269 games in the last three seasons, which should give him plenty of appeal around the league. He turns 29 in April and has between three and four years’ service time, meaning he is under club control through the 2024 season, unless the new CBA makes significant changes to the previous service time structure. He’s already gone through arbitration once, as he reached Super Two status prior to last year, and earned $2.1MM in 2021. Due to his injury-hampered season, he is projected to earn a modest raise to $2.7MM for 2022, in the estimation of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. With his ability to hit, that affordable salary and years of control, he could potentially be a useful piece for any team in the league, including the Mets.
Who’s Blocking Brennen Davis?
In the second round of the 2018 MLB draft, the Cubs selected outfielder Brennen Davis out of Basha High School in Arizona. Prior to the draft, his athleticism had been quite apparent, as he was also a highly touted basketball player, though he did drop basketball in his senior year to focus on baseball.
After the draft in 2018, he played 18 rookie ball games, slashing .298/.431/.333. In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 50 games there and hitting .305/.381/.525, wRC+ of 160. His eight home runs were perhaps the most encouraging development, as it had been hoped that his power would catch up to athleticism in order for him to reach his ceiling. After the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020, Davis spent the majority of 2021 in Double-A. In 76 games there, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .252/.367/.474, wRC+ of 135. He got promoted to Triple-A in September and hit even better, though over a small sample of just 15 games. His line at that level was .268/.397/.536. In Baseball America’s most recent list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, they put Davis in the 16th spot.
As Davis was having this excellent season in the minors, the Cubs were undergoing a big selloff at the big league level, trading away most of the core players from their recent championship run, including Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and others. The Cubs still have a stable of outfield options on the roster, such as Rafael Ortega, Ian Happ, Clint Frazier, Jason Heyward, Michael Hermosillo, Harold Ramirez, Alfonso Rivas, Greg Deichmann, Nelson Velazquez, Christopher Morel and Alexander Canario.
Despite all of those names, very few of them have done enough to guarantee themselves significant playing time this year. Happ is certain to be in there somewhere. Heyward will likely continue to get playing time with the Cubs hoping he plays well enough that they can move his contract somehow. Frazier and Ramirez are reclamation projects, having each been designated for assignment by their previous teams at the end of 2021. They will probably get some initial playing time as the Cubs see if they found some hidden gems, but they will have to show improvement in order to earn more than an audition. The rest of the group has little or no MLB experience. There’s also the distinct possibility that the Cubs continue their high-turnover roster churn of recent years and trade from this group.
Davis has played all three outfield positions in the minors, but more in center than the corners. The incumbent center fielder for the Cubs is Rafael Ortega, as he got most of the playing time there in the second half of 2021. It was something of a late career breakout season for Ortega, who has been bouncing from team to team for over a decade. Since his debut in affiliated ball in 2008, he’s played in the organizations of the Rockies, Cardinals, Angels, Padres, Marlins and Braves, before joining the Cubs. Going into 2021, he had played 143 MLB games across four different seasons, but he ended up playing 103 games for the Cubs last year, hitting .291/.360/.463 for a wRC+ of 120. His defense was considered slightly below average by Statcast, DRS and UZR, but because of his offensive contributions, he produced 1.6 fWAR in those 103 games. Still, due to his years as a journeyman, he’s not a long-term solution in center as he turns 31 in May.
Davis faces other obstacles to reaching the big leagues, however. For one thing, he’s not on the 40-man roster yet, as he won’t be Rule 5 eligible until the end of the year. That means that calling him up will involve someone else losing their spot. Then there’s also the service time question, which hovers over any highly-touted prospect who is near MLB-ready at the start of a season. In the ongoing CBA negotiations, the owners did make an attempt to address this, as their most recent proposal involved teams that promote top prospects on Opening Day being rewarded with an extra draft pick should that player eventually finish top five in the voting for MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year. (More details here.) However, it’s unknown if that proposal, or a modified one, will survive until the new CBA is eventually agreed upon. Even if that provision exists, it’s not a guarantee that a team will value a theoretical draft pick more than guaranteeing themselves an extra year of control over a highly-touted prospect.
Regardless of how the timeline plays out, the 22-year-old Davis should be with the Cubs at some point this year, with the potential to be a key building block as they look to navigate a quick turnaround from their big selloff and open up a new competitive window.
2021-22 Offseason Outlook Series
MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series is complete. We broke down what all 30 teams might have in store for their winter moves, so be sure to check in with this post to find your favorite team’s entry is online. The completed entries….
NL East
NL Central
NL West
AL East
AL Central
AL West
This Date In Transaction History: Red Sox Sign Mike Napoli
On this date in 2003, the Red Sox made one of the best free-agent signings of all time. The story of David Ortiz‘s Red Sox career is well-known and often recounted, however. So let’s fast-forward to this date eight years ago when the Red Sox added another pretty good first baseman/designated hitter: Mike Napoli put pen to paper and officially signed a one-year deal worth $5MM guaranteed. The deal was notable because the two sides had previously agreed to a three-year, $39MM contract that fell apart because of concern over the health of Napoli’s hip.
After the failed physical, Napoli briefly flirted with a return to the Texas Rangers, with whom he’d spent the previous two seasons. Napoli had been a significant trade acquisition for the Rangers following the 2010 season, making his one and only All-Star team while helping Texas repeat as American League champions. Though Texas would fall for the second consecutive season in the World Series, Napoli played lights out, slashing .350/.464/.700 in 28 plate appearances with two home runs and 10 runs driven in.
Regardless, the Red Sox had more playing time to offer the former catcher, and he became Boston’s new first basemen with a deal guaranteeing $5MM while still providing a ceiling of $13MM based on incentives. The 31-year-old would take home the full boat, cashing in with 139 games played, 578 plate appearances, and 3.7 rWAR by way of a .259/.360/.482 batting line. He chipped in 23 home runs despite a 32.4 percent strikeout rate.
Napoli was absolutely a contributing factor in the Red Sox turning around a 93-loss team from the season prior, becoming a 97-win juggernaut that rolled past the Rays, Tigers, and Cardinals to win the World Series title. Though Napoli would play in the World Series three times, 2013 was the only time he’d walk away with a ring.
Ultimately, though the hip issue got Napoli’s Boston tenure off to an inauspicious start, the relationship was an unmitigated success, so much so that Napoli re-upped following that 2013 campaign for another two seasons at a $16MM AAV. Ultimately, Napoli earned $45MM over that three-year stretch, well more than the $39MM he would have earned under the original terms of his deal.
These days, Napoli is a Quality Assurance Coach on the staff of one of his former teammates from that 2013 team, David Ross.
Trade Candidate: Nick Ahmed
This winter’s free-agent shortstop market has long-promised to shake up the league, and it’s lived up to its billing thus far. But we’re only part-way through the transfiguration. The Rangers signed two of the top shortstops available, adding a wrinkle that the other 29 clubs have yet to iron out. If nothing else, two significant dominoes – Carlos Correa and Trevor Story – have yet to fall, so there are even more twists-and-turns when the lockout ends.
For those teams not willing to plunk down six figures for a long-term solution like Correa or Story, however, it would be worth giving Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen a call to see about the availability of veteran Nick Ahmed. Ahmed struggled mightly at the plate in 2021, slashing just .221/.280/.339 over 473 plate appearances, but that’s never been his calling card.
If nothing else, he’s affordable. He’s entering his age-32 season with two years and $18.25MM left on his deal. The contract is affordable, but it could also be a potential obstacle. The money owed is substantial enough that teams may doubt whether he offers enough of an upgrade whatever they have in-house. Any rookie shortstop will offer better value potential because of a rookie minimum contract. Besides, it’s easy to dream on the untapped potential of a young player that you haven’t yet seen fail at the Major League level.
There is still, however, the question of whether the Diamondbacks would be willing to sell a player that’s come into his own with their franchise, becoming a fan favorite in the process. But after a disastrous 110-loss season, it’s hard to consider the Diamondbacks as anything but sellers.
They’ve finished last in the NL West for consecutive seasons and only made the playoffs once in the past decade. What’s more, they’re staring down what might be the most competitive division in baseball as the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres are each in pedal-to-the-metal, World-Series-hopeful mode.
As teams look to upgrade their rosters, there are only so many rosters to scour. This time of year, belief is rampant, so finding a trade partner requires either an aligning of team needs, a team looking to cut payroll, or as in the Diamondbacks case, a team in rebuilding mode with an outside shot at contention next season. Whether the Diamondbacks see themselves in that light is unclear, given that they’re just two offseasons removed from signing Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85MM deal.
Even this winter, they made a win-now-ish move by signing veteran closer Mark Melancon to a two-year, $14MM deal. Of course, there are levels of rebuilding, and the Diamondbacks have to field a full roster just like any other team. Signing Melancon could just as easily be the acquisition of a future trade piece as it is a sign that the front office thinks they can win the NL West this season. Teams around the league have definitely called to inquire about the availability of Ketel Marte, but they’ve thus far been rebuffed–another sign that Arizona might be leaning towards a soft bid for a wild card spot.
Ahmed, however, has never been a high-impact player, and the Diamondbacks can almost certainly find another solution, should they decide to move him. He’s never posted higher than a 96 wRC+, and his career mark sits at 74 wRC+. His 2.3 fWAR season in 2019 is the only time he’s topped 2.o fWAR over a full season (though he was on pace to surpass that mark in 2020, had there been a full season).
Frankly, Ahmed is pretty close to being a prototypical second-division starter, and that’s not the type of guy that teams really look to trade for in the offseason. What makes Ahmed appealing, however, is that he does have an elite skill: defense. Certain teams have grown adept at maximizing flawed players with elite skills, and there’s no reason to think that the right organization couldn’t maximize Ahmed’s talents in a similar fashion.
Bottom line: Ahmed is a veteran who should probably transition to a part-time role, but that might be something he’s willing to do if he’s on a contender. The Diamondbacks don’t need a win-now veteran like Ahmed, and they should probably be using that spot to audition young players who have a chance to stick long-term. That’s the calculus for a trade.
So who might be interested in Ahmed? The right team would be a competitive club looking to make the playoffs who has a solution up the middle, but not a surefire All-Star in that spot. Ahmed would be a perfect third middle infielder to compliment a lefty bat or a bat-first option up the middle. Some options:
The Astros could use Ahmed to ease Jeremy Pena into regular playing time. He would essentially be the glove-first version of Aledmys Diaz. They probably have enough pop to slide another glove-first body into the bottom of the lineup, though this probably only works if one of their young centerfielders proves a genuine offensive weapon, as they’re already giving one lineup spot to a glove-only vet in Martin Maldonado.
The Cubs might take a flyer on Ahmed to bolster the young and injury-prone up-the-middle duo of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. Both young infielders are natural second baseman, and both are coming off injury-ravaged seasons. Ahmed would find playing time as Hoerner gets moved around the diamond, and he could serve as insurance should one of the pair end up back in the trainer’s room.
If the Yankees don’t pony up for one of the top free agents, Ahmed would nicely protect the offensive asset that is Gleyber Torres by allowing their young slugger to mostly stay at the keystone. The plan to convert 30-year-old Gio Urshela to a full-time shortstop has some legs after a 24-start tryout in 2021 (-1 DRS, -0.2 UZR), but it would be a lot to expect him to handle the full load. Ahmed would instantly become the best defender in an offensively potent Yankee infield, and they could find ways to maximize his glovework and minimize trips to the dish.
The Phillies really need more offense, but so long as Didi Gregorius is their starting shortstop, there would be a place for Ahmed. After a 68 wRC+ season from Gregorius, the Phils might just as soon improve their infield defense – which also needs work.
Given the stars that have been on the free-agent market this winter, and the stars that might be on the market next year (Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts), Ahmed represents a decidedly milquetoast solution to a premier position. But he’s not a solution on his own. He’s a capable veteran who can absolutely help defensively if fit into a bench role on the right club. There’s a team out there that can use Ahmed to help them win games and reach the postseason. Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks probably aren’t that team.
This Date In Transactions History: Three-Team Sonny Gray Trade
On this date three years ago, the Reds, Mariners and Yankees reached agreement on a complex deal. Not only was it a fairly uncommon three-team trade, the deal pushed across the finish line only when the most notable player involved agreed to a three-year contract extension with his new club.
As part of that January 21, 2019 agreement, the Reds landed Sonny Gray. Cincinnati agreed to take on the right-hander’s $7.5MM salary for that season and promised him an additional $30.5MM through 2022. (The deal also included a $12.5MM club option for 2023). The Reds also landed left-handed pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartín from New York. In exchange, they sent infielder Shed Long Jr. to Seattle, who flipped their recent second-round draftee, Josh Stowers, to the Yankees.
Gray, an All-Star and AL Cy Young award finalist in 2015, was the obvious headliner of the deal. After a generally strong run in Oakland, he was sent to the Yankees at the 2017 trade deadline. Yet Gray didn’t fare as well during his year-plus in the Bronx, posting a mediocre 4.51 ERA/4.40 FIP across 195 2/3 innings. He dealt with particular struggles in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, managing a 6.55 ERA in home contests during his time in pinstripes.
The Reds identified Gray as a target as they neared the end of a rebuild that had landed them in the basement in the NL Central for four straight seasons. They were rewarded for that decision, as Gray immediately turned things around in his new environs. He twirled 175 1/3 frames with a 2.87 ERA during his first season with the Reds, earning his second All-Star nod and some down ballot Cy Young votes in the process. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged Gray as the most valuable player on the team that year by Wins Above Replacement.
Gray’s excellent debut season wasn’t enough to get the Reds to the postseason, but Cincinnati did qualify for an expanded playoff the next year. His 56 innings of 3.70 ERA ball in the shortened season weren’t quite as impressive as his first-year numbers, but it was still solidly above-average output that contributed to a decent 31-29 team showing. The Reds didn’t make the playoffs over a full schedule last year, but Gray had another nice showing. The 32-year-old’s 4.19 ERA marked a bit of a step back, but a 27% strikeout rate, 47.2% ground-ball percentage and 3.85 SIERA suggest he may have been adversely affected by a poor defense behind him.
Cincinnati hasn’t had the team success they’d no doubt hoped to achieve over the past three seasons. That’s not any fault of Gray’s, though. Over 366 2/3 innings with the Reds, the Vanderbilt product has posted a 3.49 ERA/3.57 FIP, holding opposing hitters to a meager .208/.292/.345 line. Buying low after his struggles with the Yankees proved a shrewd move for former president Dick Williams, general manager Nick Krall, and the rest of the Cincinnati front office.
It remains to be seen whether Gray’s tenure with the Reds is finished. He’s still controllable for two seasons under the terms of the extension he signed at the time of the trade. The organization may be looking to cut payroll after the lockout, and Gray perhaps offers the best blend of recent productivity, availability in trade and 2022 salary (around $10.167MM) of anyone on the roster.
Whether Gray winds up dealt for a third time or opens next season in Cincinnati, the deal counts as a win for the Reds in retrospect. In fact, of the three prospects involved in the trade, Sanmartín is the only one who remains with the club that acquired him. He made his first two MLB starts during the final week of last season and could be a depth starter or long reliever for Cincinnati this year.
The other two prospects — Long and Stowers — were more well-regarded than Sanmartín at the time of the trade. Neither emerged as a long-term option in their new organizations, though. Long tallied 412 plate appearances over three years with Seattle. He hit well as a rookie but struggled between 2020-21, dealing with recurring injury issues around his right shin. Outrighted off the Mariners 40-man roster at the end of last season, the 26-year-old elected minor league free agency and has yet to sign elsewhere. Long figures to get another opportunity — even if just via minors pact — and he’s young enough to have a real chance at turning things around, but he didn’t make the kind of impact in Seattle their front office no doubt hoped he would.
Stowers, meanwhile, has yet to crack the majors. He spent two years in the New York farm system, then was traded to the Rangers last April as part of the deal that sent Rougned Odor to the Bronx. The 24-year-old outfielder (25 next month) then hit .220/.311/.466 across 351 plate appearances in Double-A. Not added to the Texas 40-man roster after the season, he’ll be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft once the lockout wraps up. As with Long, it’s far too early to close the books on Stowers’ career, but he’ll be available to the rest of the league for little more than an active roster spot in the coming months.
The deal also netted the Yankees the Reds’ Competitive Balance pick in the upcoming draft. New York used that selection (#38 overall) to nab left-hander T.J. Sikkema from the University of Missouri. Sikkema, who missed the entire 2021 campaign due to injury, was ranked by Baseball America as the #23 prospect in the Yankees’ system midseason. Between the lost minor league season in 2020 and last year’s injury-wrecked campaign, he’s still yet to advance to full season ball. Sikkema will be eligible for next offseason’s Rule 5 draft if not added to the New York 40-man roster, making the 2022 campaign a particularly important one for his future in the organization.
Note: This article was updated to reflect that the Yankees also acquired a Competitive Balance Selection from the Reds.