Under-The-Radar Star Can Shape Phillies Offseason
In 2021 an NL East pitcher threw close to 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and received Cy Young votes for his pitching prowess. Elsewhere in the division, a pitcher threw over 100 innings, logged an ERA near 1.00, and remains relatively obscure. That first pitcher was Mets superstar Jacob deGrom. The second pitcher was lefty Ranger Suárez, and he may be the key to the Phillies’ offseason.
Coming into the season, Suárez was even more obscure than he is coming out of it. An international signing out of Venezuela in 2012, the left-handed Suárez climbed the ranks of the Phillies farm system to little fanfare. After reaching the Major Leagues as a 22-year-old in 2018, and in two ensuing stints in 2019 and an illness-interrupted 2020, Suárez did little to distinguish himself from the pack. Through 67 innings across those first three looks, the Phillies pitcher sported a 4.66 ERA that ERA estimators largely validated. The only standout skill in that modest sample was an ability to generate groundballs, as opposing hitters smacked pitches into the dirt 52.7% of the time when facing the young Philly.
In May of this past season, Suarez was called up from Triple-A Lehigh for what is likely the final time in his career, as he joined the bullpen to back up a top-heavy Philadelphia rotation. Pitching in mostly multi-inning appearances, Suarez didn’t yield an earned run until his twelfth appearance of the season. This roll continued, even if Suarez proved fallible and put up a 2.25 ERA in the next 20 innings until the trade deadline. This dominant run through July convinced the Phillies to promote the lefty into their rotation, replacing Spencer Howard, the starter Suarez regularly mopped up innings for, after a trade with the Texas Rangers.
As a starter, Suarez rode his hot streak to the end of the season, pitching to a 1.51 ERA in 65 plus innings, and securing Philadelphia’s 82nd win of the season. All told, the breakout left-hander pitched to a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings. A 2.72 FIP and 3.51 SIERA portend some regression, but above average command and strikeout abilities, plus a whopping 58.2% groundball rate, indicate that there was more than just luck at play in that final ERA. Additionally, Suárez was one of the best in the league at inducing soft contact per Statcast, whose metrics are even more bullish than those FIP or SIERA figures.
It’s rare for a season of this caliber to fly so under the radar come awards season, though Phillies advocates were likely a bit busy banging the Cy Young drum in favor of ace Zack Wheeler. For historical context though, a case could be made that the dual-role pitching Suarez was worthy of some down-ballot attention, if nothing else. After all, previous pure relievers Eric Gagne, Rollie Fingers, and former-Philly closer Steve Bedrosian all won the league’s top pitching award with comparable, and arguably inferior campaigns in the past. Award-winner Bryce Harper, who took home NL MVP honors in 2021, stumped for his teammate to win the NL Comeback Player of the Year award that ultimately went to Buster Posey.
All of that’s to say, for as unheralded as he was, Ranger Suarez was very good in 2021. Per Fangraphs’ RosterResource page, the left-handed pitcher is expected to slot into a rotation behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, while Texas acquisitions Kyle Gibson and Hans Crouse round out the group. Rotation mainstay Zach Eflin, who flashed breakout potential the past two seasons before illness and knee troubles derailed his most recent campaign, should return early next season if he recovers as expected from September knee surgery.
Each member of that pitching squad carries some combination of health risk and questions about what they can reasonably produce in 2022: Wheeler pitched a career-high number of innings in 2021 after a shortened 2020 campaign; Nola sported an uncharacteristically high 4.63 ERA last season; Gibson’s bottom-line numbers nosedived following his trade to Philadelphia; Crouse has 270 professional innings to his name thanks to injuries, only 7 of which have come at the Major League level; Suárez is unlikely to post another ERA close to 1.00; and Eflin will be returning from surgery.
One could look at these risks and determine that the Phillies need more depth, should anyone in this group fail to shoulder the bulk of a baseball season’s workload. A rosier stance however, is that the Phillies have one of the best rotations they’ve had in some time. Instead of relying on Vince Velasquez and a post-prime Jake Arrieta, or Matt Moore and Chase Anderson as they did this past year to fill a rotation, the Phillies front office may be looking to add that type of player entirely as depth. That is of course, unless President Dave Dombrowski and GM Sam Fuld see another opportunity for improvement.
One creative tactic aimed towards improvement may be for the Phillies to shift Suarez back to the bullpen, at least once Eflin returns or more rotation depth is acquired. As surprising as that move would be on the surface, it would allow Suarez to continue in a dual-role that he’s already proved exceptional. Further, it would bolster a bullpen that finished near the back of the pack in most categories and tied for first in blown saves with 34. It would also equip manager Joe Girardi with a shutdown lefty out of the pen, as Suarez was the toughest pitcher for lefties to hit in 2021. This is in contrast to the bullpen’s current top left-hander, José Alvarado, who walked 47 batters in 55 plus innings last season.
While the Phillies are currently $29MM under the current CBA’s luxury-tax threshold (per RosterResource’s Jason Martinez), it’s unlikely that they’ll devote a sum greater than the $10MM it took to sign right-hander Corey Knebel to further improve the bullpen. More modest bullpen additions aren’t off the table, as free agent lefty Andrew Chafin and neutral-splits right-hander Colin McHugh are speculative fits that can probably be had for a lower annual amount than Knebel. Regardless of target, however, no free agent addition will prove as cost-effective as shifting the pre-arbitration Suárez to the back of the bullpen.
The versatility afforded by Suárez should not stop the Phillies from reinforcing their rotation depth and bullpen, but it does lessen the need to sink major resources into both. This flexibility will allow the Phillies to turn the bulk of their attention to the position player side of things, an area for the team that hasn’t looked this bare in quite a few offseasons. Half of the lineup is set, but vacancies and question marks are abound in the other half, as left field, center field, third base, and shortstop are set to be filled with players short on Major League success or players coming off down 2020 seasons.
Looking At The Remaining Free Agent Starters Beyond Rodon/Kershaw
The free agent starting pitching market moved incredibly quickly in the run-up to the lockout. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are easily the top two unsigned options. Each has some health uncertainty but was excellent in 2021 when able to take the hill. Injury question marks could have held up their respective markets early in the offseason, and Kershaw also seems to have geographical preferences that’ll limit where he might end up. Yet that duo is in a tier of their own in terms of upside, and they’ll be the highest-profile free agent starters coming out of the transactions freeze.
For this exercise, we’ll set Rodón and Kershaw aside and look at the remainder of the rotation market. 26 other current free agents worked at least 50 innings as a starter in 2021. Using a few key pitching categories, we’ll see how they fared to take a look at some potential lower-cost signings for teams in search of back-of-the-rotation depth.
As with Rodón and Kershaw, a few of these pitchers represent unique cases. Yusei Kikuchi reportedly had three-year offers in hand before the lockout, so his market may be beyond “buy-low” status. Matthew Boyd and Danny Duffy each had surgery late in the 2021 season and aren’t expected to be ready for the start of next year. Boyd’s recovery timetable is still unclear; Duffy is targeting a June return.
Most of the pitchers remaining are currently healthy, back-end types at this point of their careers, though. Using FanGraphs’ splits leaderboards, let’s take a look at the top performers in various metrics last year. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters).
ERA (league average — 4.34)
- Danny Duffy, 2.55
- Wily Peralta, 3.12
- Kwang-hyun Kim, 3.63
- Michael Pineda, 3.72
- Matthew Boyd, 3.89
- Johnny Cueto, 4.09
- Zack Greinke, 4.11
- Brett Anderson, 4.22
- Yusei Kikuchi, 4.41
- Chad Kuhl, 4.43
Strikeout Rate (league average — 22.6%)
- Danny Duffy, 25.7%
- Yusei Kikuchi, 24.5%
- Vince Velasquez, 22.8%
- Drew Smyly, 21.8%
- Chad Kuhl, 20.1%
- Matthew Boyd, 19.9%
- Johnny Cueto, 19.8%
- Matt Moore, 19.2%
- Martín Pérez, 19.1%
- Tyler Anderson, 19.1%
Strikeout/Walk Rate Differential (league average — 14.7 percentage points)
- Danny Duffy, 16.9 points
- Yusei Kikuchi, 15.2 points
- Michael Pineda, 14.6 points
- Drew Smyly, 14.2 points
- Johnny Cueto, 13.8 points
- Tyler Anderson, 13.7 points
- Matthew Boyd, 13.1 points
- Vince Velasquez, 12.3 points
- Zack Greinke, 11.8 points
- Martín Pérez, 11.7 points
Ground-Ball Rate (league average — 42.7%)
- Brett Anderson, 57.5%
- José Ureña, 52.7%
- Wily Peralta, 50.8%
- Carlos Martínez, 50.2%
- Yusei Kikuchi, 48.4%
- Garrett Richards, 46.6%
- Chad Kuhl, 46.5%
- Kwang-hyun Kim, 45.6%
- Matt Shoemaker, 45.1%
- Zack Greinke, 44.1%
FIP (league average — 4.30)
- Danny Duffy, 3.44
- Johnny Cueto, 4.10
- Matthew Boyd, 4.10
- Kwang-hyun Kim, 4.27
- Michael Pineda, 4.27
- Tyler Anderson, 4.37
- Brett Anderson, 4.39
- Matt Harvey, 4.60
- Yusei Kikuchi, 4.61
- Zack Greinke, 4.69
Innings Pitched
- Zack Greinke, 168 2/3
- Tyler Anderson, 167
- Yusei Kikuchi, 157
- J.A. Happ, 152 1/3
- Zach Davies, 148
- Jon Lester, 141 1/3
- Mike Foltynewicz, 130
- Matt Harvey, 127 2/3
- Drew Smyly, 115 2/3
- Johnny Cueto, 112 1/3
The Best Remaining Free Agents
The expiration of the collective bargaining agreement brought about a November flurry of free agent signings well beyond anything we’ve seen before. We published our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list on November 8th, and at this point 20 players from that list remain unsigned. Let’s take a look at who will still be out there when the lockout ends.
1. Carlos Correa. The Rangers committed $500MM to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, while the Tigers signed Javier Baez. The Tigers doubling up on one of the big five free agent shortstops should, in theory, be a good thing for Correa. As our top free agent of the winter, we still believe Correa’s agent will find a way to get his client paid. However, if teams like the Yankees, Astros, Angels, and Phillies truly won’t get near Correa’s assumed asking price (north of Seager’s $325MM), he lacks a contending big market team in need of a shortstop.
3. Freddie Freeman. Most observers still consider the Braves the favorite for Freeman. Last week, I ran through potential matches if the Braves can’t get it done. MLBTR readers saw the Yankees and Dodgers as clear favorites in that case. For what it’s worth, I don’t agree with that.
4. Kris Bryant. Hours prior to the expiration of the CBA, Jon Heyman mentioned that the Mets, Angels, and Padres had shown interest in Bryant, while the Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros are among the other teams who have “checked in.” Bryant’s expected market prior to the lockout remains mostly intact, but the Rangers have committed $561.2MM to free agents and the Mets are in for $254.5MM. That probably decreased the willingness of those teams to go big on Bryant.
8. Trevor Story. Story could serve as the more affordable alternative to Correa, with Baez’s six-year, $140MM deal likely serving as a benchmark. Story doesn’t have an obvious shortstop-needy team with $100MM+ burning a hole in its pocket, however.
10. Nick Castellanos. Castellanos was one of the top available bats at the opening of free agency, and he figures to be easier for a new team to sign than Freeman. Still, Castellanos is a player with some wide error bars on contract predictions. MLBTR said $115MM over five years, but outlets like ESPN and FanGraphs were at three years and $54-63MM.
15. Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber is a player who works against Castellanos, in that he’s a year younger and didn’t receive a qualifying offer. He had a similar 2021 season to Castellanos, albeit with less volume.
18. Carlos Rodon. We felt that second half health concerns would limit Rodon to one to three years, and we still feel that way. If that’s correct, his market could be robust given the increasing aversion among teams to long-term contracts. The chance to get a potential ace on a short-term deal is what made Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander so appealing.
20. Seiya Suzuki. When the lockout ends, Suzuki will have 20 days left to sign with an MLB team. As Brad Lefton of the New York Times pointed out in late November, “Spring training in Japan starts Feb. 1, roughly three weeks earlier than the current MLB schedule. Beyond players with health issues, latecomers are almost unheard-of in Japan. If Suzuki has any thoughts of returning to the Carp, he would probably want to do that with the rest of the group on Feb. 1.” If we don’t see progress on the MLB lockout this month, it’s possible Suzuki will play another year in Japan rather than wait around in limbo.
21. Anthony Rizzo. It’s possible Rizzo would like to see what happens with Freeman to get clarity on his own market, but Rizzo will require a much more modest contract. He could find a home with a team that won’t be considering Freeman. Rizzo and his wife have moved out of their longtime Chicago apartment, but if he signs a relatively small contract elsewhere there will be many in Chicago wondering why the Cubs didn’t do it.
25. Jorge Soler. Soler’s market hasn’t been altered much by the signings that have taken place. He’ll be rooting for the National League designated hitter.
29. Kenley Jansen. Most of the top right-handed relievers are off the board, like Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Hector Neris, Mark Melancon, and Corey Knebel. But contenders can almost always supplement the bullpen, so Jansen should be fine. The Angels, White Sox, Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Rays, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres are the ten teams who have spent at least $7MM on a reliever so far.
32. Michael Conforto. We’ve only seen four major outfield signings so far in Starling Marte, Chris Taylor, Avisail Garcia, and Mark Canha. We generally didn’t expect Conforto to re-sign with the Mets anyway, so his market is largely unaffected.
33. Clayton Kershaw. In a recent MLBTR poll, 81.8% of readers predicted Kershaw would sign with the Dodgers or Rangers or retire. Hopefully we haven’t seen the last of the lefty, who turns 34 in March. Kershaw received a PRP injection in his left flexor tendon in October.
34. Yusei Kikuchi. One of four starting pitchers remaining from our Top 50 list, Kikuchi is only 30 years old and comes without health concerns. Despite a 4.41 ERA on the season, the lefty has upside and should be a popular post-lockout target.
40. Zack Greinke. Greinke, 38, seems in line for a one-year deal if he decides to continue playing.
41. Eddie Rosario. Rosario seemed like a decent match for the Marlins, who signed Avisail Garcia for $53MM. Otherwise, his market should be mostly intact.
43. Jonathan Villar. Leury Garcia signed a three-year, $16.5MM deal to stay with the White Sox as their jack-of-all-trades utility guy. Villar generally doesn’t play outfield, but he’s otherwise comparable and may still find a two-year deal.
45. Ryan Tepera. Tepera is a solid right-handed setup type. Hector Neris’ two-year, $17MM deal could be a comparable on the high end. Tepera may be easier to sign than Jansen, as Tepera doesn’t have any attachment to serving in a closer’s role.
47. Nelson Cruz. Like Soler, Cruz will be well-served by a universal DH.
48. Danny Duffy. Last month, Duffy told Andy McCullough of The Athletic that he “plans to start a throwing program in March and intends to be ready to pitch by June.” The 33-year-old southpaw will make for an intriguing one or two-year addition.
Honorable mentions: Tyler Anderson, Andrew Chafin, Johnny Cueto, Josh Harrison, Joe Kelly, Andrew McCutchen, Collin McHugh, Brad Miller, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Michael Pineda
Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox made a somewhat surprising run to the ALCS in 2021. They’ve been fairly quiet to this point in the offseason, making a series of low-cost additions on the pitching staff. Yet they could be poised for some more impactful activity once the new collective bargaining agreement is in place.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Chris Sale, LHP: $82MM through 2024 (Sale can opt out of final two years and $55MM after 2022; contract also contains a 2025 vesting option based on Cy Young voting)
- Xander Bogaerts, SS: $80MM through 2025 (Bogaerts can opt out of final three years and $60MM after 2022; contract also contains a 2026 vesting option based on plate appearances)
- J.D. Martinez, DH: $19.375MM through 2022
- Matt Barnes, RHP: $18.75MM through 2023 (including buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)
- Jackie Bradley Jr., CF: $17.5MM through 2022 (including buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023)
- Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: $17MM through 2022
- James Paxton, LHP: $10MM through 2023 (deal contains club option for 2023-24; Paxton can exercise 2023 player option if club declines their option)
- Enrique Hernández, 2B: $8MM through 2022
- Christian Vázquez, C: $7MM through 2022
- Michael Wacha, RHP: $7MM through 2022
- Rich Hill, LHP: $5MM through 2022
- Hirokazu Sawamura, RHP: $2.2MM through 2022 (including buyout of $3MM club option for 2023)
- Franchy Cordero, CF: $825K through 2022
Owe $16MM to Dodgers as part of David Price trade
Total 2022 commitments: $155MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Rafael Devers — $11.1MM
- Nick Pivetta — $3.2MM
- Alex Verdugo — $3.2MM
- Kevin Plawecki — $2.25MM (settled to avoid arbitration)
- Ryan Brasier — $1.4MM (settled to avoid arbitration)
- Christian Arroyo — $1.1MM
- Josh Taylor — $1.1MM
Option Decisions
- Exercised $7MM club option on Christian Vázquez
- Kyle Schwarber declined his end of $11.5MM mutual option in favor of $3MM buyout
- Team declined $10MM option on Garrett Richards in favor of $1.5MM buyout
- Team declined $6MM option on Martín Pérez in favor of $500K buyout
Free Agents
- Kyle Schwarber, Eduardo Rodríguez, Garrett Richards, Martín Pérez, Adam Ottavino, Hansel Robles, Danny Santana, José Iglesias, Yacksel Ríos, Travis Shaw, Brad Peacock, Stephen Gonsalves, Jack Lopez, Yairo Muñoz, Raynel Espinal
After coming up a couple wins shy of a pennant, the Red Sox opened the winter facing the departure of a few important members of last year’s club. Most notable among them: longtime rotation cog Eduardo Rodríguez and midseason trade pick-up Kyle Schwarber.
Boston expressed interest in retaining both players, but Rodríguez departed fairly quickly. The southpaw signed a five-year deal with the Tigers in the first marquee free agent move of the offseason, leaving the Sox to turn elsewhere for starting pitching. Boston was loosely tied to top-of-the-market options like Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, and they reportedly had strong interest in Steven Matz. Yet in all three cases — as with Rodríguez — those hurlers ended up landing multi-year deals elsewhere.
With no long-term rotation deals finalized, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his front office pivoted to a bulk approach to the pitching staff. Rather than concentrating their resources into a mid-rotation innings eater, the Sox have spread money around on a few lower-cost arms.
They began by inking Michael Wacha to a $7MM guarantee, making them the latest team to roll the dice on a hopeful bounceback from the righty. As the lockout neared, Boston reunited with veteran Rich Hill, who’s remarkably coming off his highest innings total since 2007. The Massachusetts native is entering his age-42 campaign, yet he’s continued to produce at an average or better level every season, adding to an incredible late-career renaissance that began in Boston in 2015.
Wacha and Hill are each options for the season-opening starting staff. Boston’s other free agent rotation pickup, James Paxton, is not. He’s still recovering from an April 2021 Tommy John surgery and likely won’t be ready until the middle of the season. Paxton’s a very good pitcher when healthy, though, and for a $10MM guarantee, the Sox picked up a two-year club option that could keep him around through 2024.
The Red Sox’s choice to eschew a huge rotation investment minimizes their long-term financial downside, but it’s not without risk in 2022. There’s plenty of upside among Boston’s in-house rotation options, but it’s a high-variance unit. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Chris Sale returns to his ace-caliber form, but it’s tough to treat that as a given after Sale missed most of the past two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nathan Eovaldi was excellent last season and could be a high-end #2 behind Sale, but he’s had ups and downs throughout his career. Nick Pivetta has great raw stuff but inconsistent production.
Boston seems comfortable with that volatility. The free agent rotation market has been mostly picked through to this point. There are still some interesting trade possibilities, but it’d register as a bit of a surprise if Boston lands someone like Sonny Gray or Sean Manaea after signing three free agent starters. That’s particularly true given the presence of Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock, each of whom the club will seemingly consider for the rotation mix.
The latter two hurlers might also find themselves in the bullpen. Whitlock, in particular, was downright excellent in shorter stints as a rookie. While he’d had some success as a starter in the minors and has spoken about his desire to land a rotation role, it’s arguable the Sox should keep him in relief.
The late inning mix is uncertain, largely thanks to the second half struggles of Matt Barnes. Signed to a two-year extension after an All-Star first half, Barnes was awful during the season’s final couple months and was left off the initial playoff roster. As he struggled to find his footing, Whitlock emerged as the top late-game option for manager Alex Cora. Getting Barnes back on track is no doubt a key focus for the Boston coaching staff and front office, but it’s tough to pencil him back into a high-leverage role at the moment.
In addition to Barnes’ downturn, the Sox are facing the free agent departures of a few of their most relied-upon relievers. Garrett Richards and Martín Pérez were both kicked to the bullpen midseason after struggling as starters; their contracts have since been bought out. Adam Ottavino hit free agency, as did midseason pickup Hansel Robles. Those aren’t impact arms, and Boston could look to bring one or more back on affordable deals. But it’s a lot of relief innings to potentially walk out the door, and with a high-risk, high-reward rotation, having a reliable bullpen takes on all the more importance.
Some of the Red Sox’s bullpen work may have already been addressed by their rotation signings. Adding enough starters to have the flexibility to use Whitlock and/or Houck later in games helps, and Wacha might eventually be a bullpen option himself. Yet there’s more work to be done, particularly from the right side. Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernández and midseason trade acquisition Austin Davis make for a solid trio of southpaws. The right-handed group — likely anchored by Whitlock, Ryan Brasier, Barnes and Hirokazu Sawamura — looks a bit thinner.
At least one big league addition to the mix seems likely, whether via free agency, trade or the Rule 5 draft. Just minutes before the lockout, Bloom told reporters the club was hoping to “add more pitching,” noting that they’d “yet to address (the bullpen) in meaningful fashion.” Kenley Jansen is the biggest-name free agent closer still available, while players like Ryan Tepera and Collin McHugh could step into set-up roles.
Bloom also indicated the Red Sox would like to add a right-handed bat whenever teams are again permitted to make moves. That came on the heels of the club trading away one of their top righty hitters, outfielder Hunter Renfroe. With the transactions freeze fast approaching, Boston sent Renfroe to Milwaukee to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of fairly well-regarded prospects.
The deal, which essentially amounted to taking on a few million dollars in salary to bolster the farm system while parting with Renfroe, registered as a surprise for a win-now Red Sox club. Bradley’s coming off the worst offensive season of any regular in MLB. The front office is no doubt hoping a return to familiar environs can help to reinvigorate his bat, and Bradley’s still a high-end center fielder. But while the front office may not believe the downgrade from Renfroe to Bradley is as significant as their respective 2021 numbers would indicate, it’s unquestionably a blow to the club’s offense.
Renfroe was fifth on the team in park-adjusted hitting last season (minimum 100 plate appearances). His loss, coupled with Schwarber’s potential free agent departure, could make it hard for the Sox to again run out a top-five run scoring unit in 2022. The deal does, however, make for a sizable defensive improvement, much needed for a team that was by far the league’s worst at turning balls in play into outs.
Strong team defenses were behind a lot of the Rays’ success during Bloom’s tenure in the Tampa Bay front office, and it seems that’ll be a priority for his clubs in Boston. That might diminish the possibility of a Schwarber reunion, since he’s a bat-first corner outfielder who struggled to acclimate to first base down the stretch. There’s room on the roster for a position player pickup of some form, though, and there’s enough flexibility that that addition could come in a number of areas.
That’s largely thanks to the presence of utilityman Enrique Hernández, who had an excellent season after signing a two-year deal last winter. Hernández is a plus defensive option at a number of positions, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield serves the front office well. If the Red Sox add an outfielder from outside the organization (or re-sign Schwarber), then they’d have that player, top prospect Jarren Duran, Alex Verdugo and Bradley as options on the grass. Hernández, meanwhile, could slide to second base, where there’s not a whole lot of certainty internally. Alternatively, Boston could acquire a second baseman (the Mets are reportedly likely to make Jeff McNeil available, to name one speculative possibility) and rely on Hernández primarily in center with Bradley pushed into fourth outfield duty.
It’s also worth mentioning the possibility of the Red Sox going all out for one of the two remaining star free agent shortstops. Reports have tied Boston to each of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story this winter, and owner John Henry has shown a willingness to make a significant splash in years past.
Boston certainly doesn’t need a shortstop. Xander Bogaerts is one of the sport’s best players, and the Sox could feel good about him keeping the job entering the season. He can opt out of his current contract at the end of next season, though, and Boston could see a Correa or Story signing as a way to preemptively guard against Bogaerts’ possible departure (as the Dodgers did in acquiring Trea Turner with Corey Seager’s free agency looming).
Signing Correa or Story could push Bogaerts over to second base. While he’s an excellent hitter, Bogaerts hasn’t rated highly as a defender in the eyes of most public advanced metrics. A move to the keystone could help address Boston’s aforementioned team-wide defensive issues, particularly if the Red Sox signed the Gold Glove-winning Correa. (Advanced metrics have been mixed on Story, who has a strong glove and range but has had some issues with throwing errors in recent years).
As things currently stand, Hernández and Christian Arroyo look like the favorites for playing time at second base. Prospect Jeter Downs was added to the 40-man roster and might factor into the mix as well, but he’ll first need to rebound from a dismal Triple-A season. The remaining free agent options at the position aren’t great, leaving a run at Story/Correa or a trade as the best ways for an upgrade.
Boston could also be a dark horse suitor for either of Kris Bryant or Freddie Freeman if they’re content with their current middle infield. Bryant could play primarily in the corner outfield while seeing some action at third base, perhaps allowing Rafael Devers to spend more time across the diamond at first base. Devers is an impact hitter but has had his share of defensive woes as well. Bryant’s among the best right-handed bats still available, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield would fit with the Red Sox’s seeming penchant for defensive versatility.
Freeman would be a first base solution only, supplanting Bobby Dalbec on the depth chart there. Top first base prospect Triston Casas isn’t far off major league readiness, but Freeman and Casas could split first base/designated hitter duties in 2023 and beyond. J.D. Martinez forewent an opt-out possibility and will return as the DH next season, but he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. A run at Freeman would be an outside-the-box move and would probably lead to a Dalbec trade that skews the lineup even more left-handed. But Freeman’s the type of impact player teams should be willing to creatively accommodate, if negotiations between he and the Braves stall out over his reported desire for a sixth guaranteed year.
There are myriad infield possibilities for Bloom and his front office. Adding to the roster in some form makes sense, although it’s also possible the organization prioritizes a long-term deal for one of their current stars. Perhaps Boston could try to supersede Bogaerts’ opt-out by exploring another contract extension with the three-time All-Star. Presumably, the club would love to to work out a deal with Devers, controllable through 2023 via arbitration. Both players are far enough along in their careers that they may prefer to just wait out free agency, but the Red Sox at least figure to be in touch with their respective representatives.
The final area of the roster — the catching corps — already seems in place. The Red Sox exercised a $7MM option on Christian Vázquez to open the winter. After avoiding arbitration with backup Kevin Plawecki, they look to have that duo locked in with Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernández as depth options. The Sox reportedly looked into a Jacob Stallings deal before the Pirates traded him to the Marlins, indicating at least some willingness to make a move behind the plate. Stallings is no longer available, though, and a Vázquez – Plawecki pairing should be capable if unspectacular.
The roster is versatile enough that the opportunities are numerous — if ownership is willing to sign off on another significant expenditure. That the Red Sox have been loosely tied to Correa and Story might suggest there’s money to be spent once the new CBA is in place and the team has more information about the luxury tax thresholds. They haven’t made any huge offseason splashes since Bloom took over the front office, but an impact move or two may be necessary to keep pace in a loaded American League East.
Free Agent Faceoff: Catcher Pile
A lot has happened since MLBTR previewed this winter’s free agent catchers back in September. Several players were cast off of rosters as the season’s final months played out, which added some names to the pile. Some names were removed from the pile as well, as Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Sandy Leon, Pedro Severino, Andrew Knapp and Roberto Perez all put pen to paper in the past few months. That means that an already-thin market is now even thinner, leaving teams with limited avenues for bolstering their catching corps. Trades are always an option, of course. But in terms of free agents, there are only five remaining catchers that played more than 35 games in 2021.
Stephen Vogt, 37, was designated for assignment by Atlanta in October, as the Braves were in the midst of their charge towards becoming World Series champions. It was revealed a few days later that Vogt had undergone sports hernia surgery, which isn’t expected to prevent him from being ready for spring training this year. He played 78 games in 2021, between the Diamondbacks and Braves. Although he has usually received more praise for his offense than his defensive work, he hit just .195/.283/.333, wRC+ of 64 this past season. He also had a rough campaign in 2020, but was productive as recently as 2019, when he hit .263/.314/.490. That amounted to a wRC+ of 106 and 0.9 fWAR in 99 games.
Kurt Suzuki, 38, signed a one-year deal with the Angels for 2021 and played 72 games for them this year. Like Vogt, he’s long been considered more of a bat-first catcher, but he hit only .224/.294/.343 for the Halos, for a wRC+ of 76. However, his wRC+ was over 100 in each of the previous four seasons. From 2017 to 2020, he hit 50 home runs and slashed .272/.337/.475, wRC+ of 111.
Robinson Chirinos, 37, has a similar profile to Vogt and Chirinos, often earning praise for his offensive skills. But unlike them, he’s not coming off a down year at the plate. From 2015 to 2019, he had an excellent five-year run, hitting 71 home runs and slashing .234/.340/.452, for a wRC+ of 109. The shortened 2020 campaign was not kind to him, however, as his line dropped to .162/.232/.243. He had to settle for a minor league deal with the Yankees for 2021 but was later signed by the Cubs to a major league deal. He got into 45 games for them and hit .227/.324/.454, wRC+ of 108.
Austin Wynns, 31, has spent his entire career with the Orioles thus far. They selected him in the 10th round of the 2013 draft. He’s played in 115 MLB games across three different seasons. In 2021, he got into 45 games and hit .185/.232/.308. He was outrighted off the roster and elected free agency in October. He’s the youngest of this group but also has the least significant track record at the plate. He does have a strong defensive reputation, however, and less than two years’ service time, meaning he could have years of cheap team control, unless the new CBA changes the service time rules.
Wilson Ramos, 34, split his season between Detroit and Cleveland, getting into 44 games on the year. He hit .205/.248/.397, for a wRC+ of 72. He’s long had a strong defensive reputation, though that has waned as injuries have taken their toll on him over the years. His 2021 season came to an end with an unfortunate injury in August. He isn’t too far removed from a 2019 season that saw him hit .288/.351/.416 for a wRC+ 105, but his health will be the major concern for him now.
Which of these backstops is the best option for teams that want to add some depth behind the plate? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Who's The Best Available Free Agent Catcher?
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Wilson Ramos 30% (1,202)
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Kurt Suzuki 29% (1,147)
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Robinson Chirinos 26% (1,028)
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Austin Wynns 8% (303)
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Stephen Vogt 7% (287)
Total votes: 3,967
Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K
A few days ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked back on the trade that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. to the Giants. At the time, Wade had a fairly unimpressive track record, but did have a knack for generating walks and limiting strikeouts. Whether that was what piqued the Giants’ interest or not, it worked out for them, as Wade had a nice season in 2021. His strikeout rate shot up, but he still hit 18 home runs and slashed .253/.326/.482, for a wRC+ of 117.
A young hitter’s command of the strike zone can often be a helpful indicator of future success, like it was in Wade’s case. Mookie Betts was never at the top of prospect lists, as he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 only once, coming in at #75 prior to the 2014 season. But looking back on his strikeout and walk rates in the minors, perhaps it should have been more obvious that he was a superstar in the making. At Low-A, A-Ball, High-A and Double-A, he posted a BB/K above 1.00, meaning he walked more than he struck out. At Triple-A in 2014, it was 0.87, still very impressive. Jose Ramirez never appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100, and even just among Cleveland prospects, he peaked at #9 in 2014. He also kept his BB/K rate around 1.00 for most of his time in the minors, and has carried that forward into the majors as well.
That’s not to say that every minor leaguer with a strong BB/K rate will turn into a superstar like Betts or Ramirez. Jace Peterson put up solid BB/K rates as well, but has settled in as an average-ish role player. Austin Barnes also had a keen eye throughout the minors, before becoming a solid second string catcher. But those players can still be plenty useful for a big league club. Can we find the next hidden gem of this type? Let’s sniff around. Here are some standout BB/K numbers from the minors in 2021.
Alejo Lopez, infielder, Reds, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.41
A 27th round selection of the Reds in 2015, Lopez had never appeared on the club’s top 30 prospects list at Baseball America prior to this season. (He would eventually crack the midseason rankings, coming in at #21.) He had posted strong strikeout and walk numbers in rookie ball action in 2016 and 2017, putting up a BB/K above 1.00 in each year. In 2018 and 2019, he played in A-ball and High-A, with his BB/K slipping to around 0.50 in each year. After the pandemic canceled the minor leagues in 2020, Lopez hit the ground running in 2021. In 92 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .320/.401/.447, with a walk rate of 11% and strikeout rate of just 7.8%, leading to a huge BB/K of 1.41. He got called up for his MLB debut and didn’t hit much, but in a tiny sample size of 23 plate appearances. He’ll turn 26 in May.
Isaac Paredes, infielder, Tigers, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.19.
In 2018, Paredes reached Double-A for the first time and put up a BB/K rate of 0.86 in just 39 games. In 2019, he returned to Double-A and played in 127 games, improving his rate to 0.93. In 2020, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues, but Paredes made his big league debut. The transition to MLB wasn’t terribly smooth as he hit .220 over 34 games, with a BB/K of just 0.33. In 2021, he spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, playing 72 games there, hitting .265/.397/.451 while walking in an incredible 17.8% of his plate appearances and striking out just 14.9% of the time, for a BB/K ratio of 1.19. He also got into 23 more MLB games and had a BB/K rate of 0.91 there. Paredes has appeared on the backend of Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #94 before the 2019 season and #100 before 2020. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 23 until February.
Steven Kwan, outfielder, Guardians, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.16
Kwan was selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and got into 17 games that year in the lower levels of their system. In 2019, he played 123 games at High-A, with a BB/K of 1.04. After missing out on 2020 due to the pandemic, he spent 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, playing 77 games in total and logging 341 plate appearances. Overall, he hit .328/.407/.527, along with a walk rate of 10.6% and strikeout rate of 9.1%, winding up with a final BB/K of 1.16. He’s never been on Baseball America’s prospects for Cleveland, though he did just barely crack FanGraphs’ list a year ago, taking the final spot on a list of 49. The Guardians added him to their 40-man roster in November.
Tyler White, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.10
A 33rd round draft pick of the Astros in 2013, White has never been viewed as a top prospect. He only appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 Houston Astros’ prospect list once, coming in at #16 back in 2016. But he has always had a good eye for the strike zone. His first crack at Double-A was 59 games in 2015, where his BB/K was 1.20. In 57 games at Triple-A that same year, it was 1.11. He made his MLB debut the following year and appeared in parts of four seasons from 2016 to 2019. He showed some promise with the bat in 2017 and 2018 but floundered in 2019 before joining the SK Wyverns of the KBO for 2020. In 2021, he signed a minors deal with the Blue Jays, playing 105 games and hitting .292/.424/.476. His walk rate was 18.1% and his strikeout rate was 16.5%, for a final BB/K rate of 1.10. Despite that tremendous year at the plate, he never got the call to the big leagues, likely due to his limited positional flexibility. Other than one game at third base, he was exclusively a first baseman or designated hitter in 2021. Now 31, he signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last month.
Cooper Hummel, utility, Brewers/Diamondbacks, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.03
Hummel was selected by the Brewers in the 16th round of the 2016 draft and never appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 prospects for the club. In 2021, he started the year at Triple-A and got into 46 games for the Nashville Sounds, racking up an incredible BB/K of 1.58. He was flipped to the Diamondbacks as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade and got into 46 more games after that. Although his BB/K was just 0.63 after the trade, he still finished the year at 1.03 overall. Oh, and he hit .353/.429/.575 after the deal. Now 27, the Diamondbacks added Hummel to their 40-man roster in November.
Jonah Bride, utility, Athletics, BB/K at Double-A in 2021: 1.00
Bride was a 23rd round selection of the Athletics in 2018. He hit well in his first couple of minor league seasons, but took a step forward in 2021 in terms of plate discipline. His walk rate and strikeout rate were equal at 17.1%, as he had exactly 57 of each in 334 Double-A plate appearances. He’s never been on Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects, but FanGraphs just placed him 17th in the organization, noting that he recently started an attempt to convert from an infielder into a catcher. He was added to Oakland’s 40-man roster in November.
MLBTR Poll: Should The D-Backs Trade Ketel Marte?
There may be no bigger question for the Diamondbacks this winter than whether to trade Ketel Marte. A fourth-place finisher in 2019 NL MVP voting, Marte looked to be emerging as one of the game’s best position players. An average showing in the 2020 truncated schedule registered as a disappointment, but the switch-hitter returned to his 2019 form last year.
Marte hit .318/.377/.532, production that checked in 39 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+. Strains of both hamstrings limited him to just more than half of Arizona’s games, as he tallied 374 plate appearances over 90 contests. When healthy, Marte was dynamic, and his relative down year in 2020 now looks like an anomaly. In just under 1,200 plate appearances since the start of 2019, he’s a .318/.374/.543 hitter. His 137 wRC+ in that time ranks 11th among the 159 players with more than 1,000 trips to the plate.
That’s star-level offensive output, and Marte also offers up-the-middle defensive value. He didn’t acclimate well to a move to center field last year, but he’s rated as an average or better gloveman at second base. Some clubs may have reservations about his health after last year’s hamstring issues, but few players around the league can match Marte’s combination of bat-to-ball skills, raw power and athleticism.
In addition to his obvious talent, Marte’s incredibly affordable. He’ll play the 2022 season on a modest $8.4MM salary, and he’s controllable through 2024 via a pair of club options worth a combined $24MM. The Marlins are the only club known to have contacted the D-Backs about Marte this winter, but it stands to reason there are plenty of other teams with interest in a player of this caliber on such a team-friendly contract.
Whether the Diamondbacks would trade Marte is uncertain. They seemed to take him off the market quite early at last summer’s deadline. General manager Mike Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye have both spoken in recent months about a desire to avoid a full rebuild while building the franchise around a few cornerstone players, and Marte no doubt qualifies. Both Hazen and Sawdaye have left the door open a bit, noting that they’re not in position to deem anyone completely untouchable coming off an NL-worst 52-110 season. Yet neither executive sounded enthused about the possibility, and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote last month that it’d take a “monster package” for Arizona to move Marte.
Should the Diamondbacks be willing to entertain a Marte trade? They’re in a division with three of the game’s most talented rosters, and it’s hard to see a path to contention in 2022. The D-Backs could look into another contract extension, but a new Marte deal would be far costlier than the one on which he’s currently playing.
One could make a cogent argument that Arizona should pursue some form of organizational reboot, and no one on the roster would bring back as strong a return in trade as Marte. Yet there’s no certainty any prospect they get back will become a player anywhere near Marte’s caliber, and he should still be in high demand this summer or next offseason if the club hasn’t seen much near-term progress.
(poll link for app users)
Should The D-Backs Trade Ketel Marte?
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Listen to offers, but only make a deal if someone meets the initial asking price. 47% (3,666)
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Take the best offer available this winter and retool. 40% (3,112)
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No, keep Marte and build around him. 14% (1,064)
Total votes: 7,842
The A’s Top Bullpen Trade Candidate
A series of pre-lockout reports suggested there could be a broad sell-off coming in Oakland. Barring the introduction of a fairly high salary floor in the next collective bargaining agreement, the A’s seem likely to move some of their costlier players in an effort to trim payroll.
That sell-off has yet to begin, as the trade market didn’t pick up a ton of steam before the transactions freeze. It’s generally expected that the A’s could be among the most active teams coming out of the lockout, with their pair of star infielders (Matt Olson and Matt Chapman) and trio of starters with dwindling club control (Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas) drawing plenty of attention from rival fanbases. Bullpen-needy teams could also look to Oakland, in particular to closer Lou Trivino.
A former 11th-round pick, Trivino has been a bullpen workhorse since making his major league debut in 2018. He’s never required an injured list stint and has eclipsed 60 innings in each of the last three full seasons. Despite taking on significant workloads, Trivino has been consistently effective, working to a sub-4.00 ERA in three of his four campaigns. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a 3.34 mark over 97 frames, holding opponents to a .211/.305/.313 slash line.
ERA estimators haven’t quite been as bullish as those strong results. While he posted plus strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers early in his career, both have ticked down in recent seasons. His 21.6% strikeout percentage last year was more than two points lower than average for relievers, while his 10.2% swinging strike rate fell below the league mark for the first season of his career. And Trivino has never had great control, walking batters at a 10% clip or greater each season.
In large part due to that unspectacular strikeout and walk profile, both SIERA and FIP have pegged him closer to a high-3.00’s ERA type. He’s benefitted from a rather low opponents’ batting average on balls in play, no doubt in part due to the strong defenses the A’s run out behind him. Yet Trivino has also done his part to avoid especially damaging contact, particularly when put in favorable situations.
In each of his four seasons, the righty’s average exit velocity allowed has been a touch lower than the league mark. His performance becomes more notable when isolating Trivino’s performance against same-handed batters. Righties have an 86.1 MPH average exit velocity against him over the past two years, a mark that’s among the bottom quarter of pitchers leaguewide (minimum 500 offerings). Thanks in large part to that contact suppression, the Pennsylvania native has dominated righty hitters. Since the start of 2020, they’ve mustered only a .169/.261/.232 line against him. Trivino’s strikeout rate against righties is a solid 24.9%, and he’s induced ground-balls at a strong 47% clip.
As one might guess, he’s been far less effective against opposite-handed hitters. Lefties are hitting .271/.367/.431 against Trivino in that time. His 20.5% strikeout percentage and 88.5 MPH average exit velocity when at a platoon disadvantage are well worse than his numbers against righties. His walk rate has a similar discrepancy. With the platoon advantage, it’s a manageable 9.3%; against left-handers, he’s walked an untenable 13.3% of opponents.
Those platoon splits probably make him an imperfect fit for a defined closer’s role, particularly in a less pitcher-friendly park than Oakland’s Coliseum and/or in front of a lesser defense. Trivino could be a highly valuable situational option, though, a weapon for a manager to call on against lineups’ top right-handed bats. The three-batter minimum makes it impossible to shield him from lefties entirely, yet an acquiring club could at least mitigate his platoon troubles by avoiding using him against opponents’ best left-handed hitters when possible.
Trivino wouldn’t be as impactful a pickup as any of Oakland’s position player or rotation stalwarts. He’s a good reliever with a particularly strong skill for handling righty bats, though. With essentially every contender on the hunt for bullpen help, he should draw interest coming out of the lockout, and it stands to reason the A’s would be amenable to moving him.
While Trivino’s $2.9MM projected arbitration salary isn’t onerous, he’s already 30 years old and down to his final three years of club control. The A’s aren’t likely to go into a full rebuild, but even if they’re only entertaining a one or two-year step back, Trivino should be available. His arbitration salaries will continue to rise over the coming seasons, particularly if he remains in the closer’s role in Oakland and accumulates a number of saves.
Barring a dominant 2022 showing, his trade value probably won’t increase over the coming months. Even if the A’s were to retool quickly and have a contending roster in place again by 2023 or 2024, Trivino’s arbitration price by that point may be too high for their liking. He probably won’t be the first player moved out of Oakland and certainly won’t grab the most headlines, but Trivino looks like a strong trade candidate whenever teams are permitted to again discuss MLB deals.
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022. With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.
This list is by no means exhaustive. Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact. It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout. While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.
Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt). However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen. It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.
Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts. Onto the list…
Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons. In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure. Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic. With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.
Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign. It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).
Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes. Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans. Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.
Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March. The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal. Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.
Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee. With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon. The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season. For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns. There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.
Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross‘ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023. It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild. However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames. Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.
Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023. Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles. There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal). If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.
Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts‘ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options. While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015. There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.
Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.” This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021. Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.
Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish. Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations. The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.
Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team. Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known. Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized. The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.
Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023. An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars. Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year. There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim. With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.
Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019. If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year. Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.
Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign. If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining. While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning. One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise. Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.
Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end. New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout. Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.
Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term. That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement. The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job. Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.
Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year. The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season. If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.
White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length. Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series. Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades. Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.
Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records. Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change. It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason. Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.
The Hitch In A Potential Dallas Keuchel Trade
Almost exactly two years ago, December 30th of 2019, the White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel to a three-year contract that guaranteed him $55.5MM. Keuchel was excellent in the shortened 2020 campaign, throwing 63 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.99. However, there were reasons to be suspicious of those outcomes, as all of the advanced metrics thought he deserved much worse. (4.30 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA.)
That discrepancy was largely due to his declining strikeout rate, as well as an unsustainable 4.7% HR/FB rate. Keuchel has always been a groundball guy and has never had tremendous strikeout stuff. In his Cy Young season, 2015, he hit his high point with a strikeout rate of 23.7%, just a few ticks above that year’s league average of 20.4%. Since then, the league average has trended north, landing at 23.2% in 2021. Keuchel’s, however, has been steadily dropping and was at 16.3% in 2020.
In 2021, his strikeout rate fell further, landing at 13.2%, and his batted ball luck ran out, sending his ERA soaring up to a career-high 5.28. The advanced metrics felt that was largely deserved, based on the lack of Ks, as evidenced by his 6.20 xERA, 4.74 xFIP and 5.01 SIERA.
With one guaranteed year remaining on his contract, it makes sense for the White Sox to look into trading him for a couple of reasons. First, there’s his diminished effectiveness, as illustrated by those declining strikeout rates and increasing ERA. It’s possible that he could turn things around, but he turns 34 tomorrow, New Year’s Day, meaning he would have to buck traditional aging trends to do it.
Secondly, there’s his salary, as he’ll be paid $18MM in 2022, along with a $1.5MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2023. The team is in unprecedented payroll territory, for them, having set a franchise record in 2021 by having an Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM. They’re projected to blow way past that in 2022, currently sitting around $180MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.
However, the problem with that club option is that it’s actually a club/vesting option. It becomes guaranteed if Keuchel pitches at least 160 innings in each of 2021 and 2022. He’s already hit the first of those benchmarks, as he threw 162 innings in 2021. Another season of 160 innings and that $20MM for 2023 becomes guaranteed. That’s not a difficult line for Keuchel to reach as long as he’s healthy. Over the past eight seasons, he reached that threshold in six of them, if we prorate his 2020 innings total. In 2017, he missed some time with neck issues and came just shy, at 145 2/3 innings. And in 2019, he got to 112 2/3, but that was because he lingered on the free agent market until being signed by Atlanta a few months into the season and didn’t make his season debut until June 21st. In other words, apart from that neck issue in 2017, he’s been a fairly reliable innings eater, meaning he has a decent chance of triggering that option.
This is where it gets tricky to line up a trade. A team with some wiggle room in their budget might be willing to take on Keuchel’s $18MM for this coming season, but they would have to also consider the distinct possibility that Keuchel stays healthy and doubles their commitment, both in dollars and in years. It’s possible a team could acquire Keuchel and try to intentionally limit his innings to prevent the option from vesting, but that type of direct manipulation has the potential to lead to a grievance, either an official one or an unofficial one. As an example of how an unofficial grievance could hurt a team, it could reduce their chances of signing or extending players if they have shown themselves to be underhanded in their dealings with players. Perhaps the White Sox could sweeten the pot for the team on the other end of the deal by including a prospect or two, but the trouble is that their farm isn’t in great shape, at least according to Baseball America, who ranked their system dead last in the league in their most recent Organization Talent Rankings.
Perhaps the best move for the White Sox is to stand pat with Keuchel and hope that he has a bounceback campaign. Their starting five rotation looks to be solid, with Keuchel joined by Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. However, teams need more than five starters to get through a season and their depth isn’t terribly strong. Jonathan Stiever and Jimmy Lambert are depth options on the 40-man roster, but neither has more than 15 innings of MLB experience, and even their Triple-A numbers aren’t terribly exciting so far. Even if the club finds the money to add another starter, they might need Keuchel’s help to get through the season in an AL Central that is becoming more competitive.