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Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By | at January 10, 2022 8:42am CDT

The Mets have already been one of the league’s most active teams this offseason. They’ve replaced their manager, added a new baseball operations leader and embarked upon a huge spending spree to land the market’s top center fielder and starting pitcher. They probably won’t make quite as many headlines coming out of the lockout, but with seemingly limitless financial resources and an obvious desire to improve, they can’t be ruled out of almost anything.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Francisco Lindor, SS: $341MM through 2031
  • Max Scherzer, RHP: $130MM through 2024
  • Starling Marte, CF: $78MM through 2025
  • Jacob deGrom, RHP: $72MM through 2023 (deal contains a $32.5MM club option for 2024; deGrom can opt out of final year and $34.5MM after 2022)
  • Robinson Canó, 2B: $48MM through 2023
  • James McCann, C: $32.45MM through 2024
  • Mark Canha, LF: $26.5MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout on $11.5MM club option for 2024)
  • Eduardo Escobar, 3B: $20MM through 2023 (including $500K buyout on $9.5MM club option for 2024)
  • Carlos Carrasco, RHP: $15MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout on $14MM vesting/club option for 2023)
  • Taijuan Walker, RHP: $14MM through 2023 (Walker can opt out of final year and $3MM after 2022)
  • Trevor May, RHP: $7.75MM through 2022

Total 2022 commitments: $215.8MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Both Mets and Kevin Pillar declined their ends of two-tiered option; paid $1.4MM buyout in lieu of $6.4MM club option or $2.9MM player option

Free Agents

The Mets entered the winter knowing they’d be on the hunt for a new baseball operations leader, and a managerial vacancy followed in the opening days of the offseason. New York declined their 2022 option on Luis Rojas, ending his time in the role after two seasons.

The first few weeks of the offseason were fairly quiet on the transactions front as the Mets prioritized putting a new front office leader in place. New York inquired about such notable names as Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and David Stearns as part of a highly-public search. They missed out on those marquee names, but New York did eventually settle on a baseball ops head with previous experience leading a front office. In mid-November, the Mets finalized a four-year deal with former Angels general manager Billy Eppler to take on that role in Queens.

Eppler took over a club facing plenty of turnover. Starters Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were hitting free agency, as were longtime outfielder Michael Conforto and deadline pickup Javier Báez. It now seems like all four of those players are going to be playing elsewhere next season. Syndergaard and Conforto rejected qualifying offers. (Stroman and Báez were each ineligible for QO’s but surely would’ve declined themselves). The two starters signed with other clubs before the lockout, as did Báez. Conforto remains a free agent, but the Mets other moves this offseason (more on those in a minute) suggest the club has probably moved on.

With two departing starters, New York made a run at Steven Matz. The southpaw, whom the Mets had traded away last offseason, hit free agency coming off a solid year with the Blue Jays. New York was one of a few clubs with notable interest in Matz, but the 30-year-old inked a four-year contract with the Cardinals. That didn’t sit well with owner Steve Cohen, who apparently felt the Mets were denied an opportunity to match St. Louis’ $44MM offer.

The Mets didn’t have much time to dwell on the result of the Matz negotiations, though. With the lockout approaching, the free agent market picked up quite a bit of steam in late November. With Eppler in place, New York was in position to partake in that extravaganza, and the team dove in headfirst. The Mets first free agent pickup — veteran infielder Eduardo Escobar on a two-year guarantee — was a solid but not overly splashy pickup.

It didn’t take long for more headline-grabbing news to follow. Corner outfielder Mark Canha agreed to terms on a two-year deal just a few hours later. And to top off one of the most active evenings by any team in recent memory, New York signed free agency’s only star center fielder. Starling Marte landed a four-year deal with a $78MM guarantee, the largest free agent contract signed by any player this offseason up to that point.

Within a few hours, the Mets fundamentally revamped their lineup. Marte and Canha stepped into the outfield, likely pushing Brandon Nimmo from center field to a corner spot. Escobar stabilized an uncertain second/third base mix, as the club was soon to see Báez land in Detroit. That initial spree didn’t address the potential Syndergaard/Stroman departures, but New York had their highest-impact pickup of all looming on the horizon.

That, of course, proved to be the signing of future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young award winner landed a three-year, $130MM deal that’s likely to be the largest commitment to any free agent pitcher this winter. It was always expected Scherzer would land a record-setting average annual value, but the extent of the Mets commitment even surpassed most pre-offseason projections.

That few days was the kind Mets fans had dreamed of when Cohen purchased the franchise from the Wilpon family last winter. New York entered the lockout with a projected $263MM in player investments next season, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s the highest in MLB by a mile, and the Mets look likely to handily exceed whatever luxury tax thresholds are set in the upcoming collective bargaining agreement.

The transactions freeze brought the Mets player acquisitions to a halt, but it didn’t mark the end of the club’s key offseason dealings. With the lockout looming, the Mets focused on adding to the roster in the intervening weeks between Eppler’s hiring and the December 1 expiration of the previous CBA. Once the league barred player movement, the club returned to their manager position, which had sat vacant for around three months.

According to reports, New York met with six candidates as part of that search. Longtime skipper Buck Showalter was cast as the favorite fairly early in the process, though, and his ultimate hiring proved wholly unsurprising. In contrast to the club’s past few hires — Mickey Callaway, Carlos Beltrán (very briefly) and Rojas — Showalter brings decades of experience to the position. He’ll oversee a star-studded clubhouse, leading a franchise that’ll enter the season with massive aspirations.

With so much in the rearview mirror, what’s left for the Mets after the lockout? Paradoxically, one could argue the club’s immense volume of activity makes their next steps either easier or tougher to project. On the one hand, they’ve done so much that the roster’s strengths and deficiencies are fairly clear. Yet the organization is already operating in uncharted waters from a payroll perspective, leaving little indication for outside observers how much further Cohen and the front office could be prepared to go.

Where might Alderson and Eppler devote their attention after the transactions freeze? The Nimmo – Marte – Canha grouping in the outfield is impressive enough that any further pickups will probably be of the depth variety. It looks all but inevitable that Conforto will depart, and the Mets will pick up another draft choice (they also received one after Syndergaard signed with the Angels) as compensation.

There’s plenty of depth around the infield as well. Francisco Lindor is the shortstop, and Pete Alonso is at first base. How exactly Showalter will divvy up the playing time between second and third base remains to be seen, but there are plenty of options on hand. Jeff McNeil is probably best suited for playing time at the keystone, but Robinson Canó is set to return to the organization after a year-long PED suspension. Escobar can player either position, while J.D. Davis is an option at the hot corner (even if he’s better suited at first base or designated hitter). Utilityman Luis Guillorme can back up all around the infield, including at shortstop.

The likely addition of the DH to the National League might alleviate that logjam a bit, but there’s also the presence of first baseman/corner outfielder Dominic Smith to consider. Committing to anyone at DH might leave a deserving player without regular at-bats, and it looks likely at least one notable name is traded away before the start of the season. Recent reports have suggested a McNeil or Smith deal may be the most probable, but Davis has long been speculated upon as a trade candidate himself — so much so that he guessed his chances of opening next season in Queens were “kind of 50/50” even before New York’s spending spree.

If the Mets were to deal one of those players, it seems likely they’d target pitching help in return. No one around the league can match New York’s best two arms, with Scherzer and Jacob deGrom a potentially dominating pairing at the top. There’s a lot of uncertainty behind that duo, though.

Carlos Carrasco is usually very effective when healthy, but he was limited to twelve starts last year by various injuries and underwent postseason surgery to remove a bone fragment from his elbow. He’s not expected to miss much more than a bit of Spring Training action, but it’s the latest in a rather significant injury history for the 34-year-old. Taijuan Walker stayed healthy last season, but he followed up an All-Star first half with a 7.13 ERA/6.79 FIP after the Break. David Peterson struggled and battled oblique and foot injuries last season. Tylor Megill showed promising strikeout and walk numbers but gave up a lot of hard contact when batters did put the ball in play.

At least adding some sort of stabilizing back-of-the-rotation presence would seem to be a priority. The Reds and A’s are expected to make some higher-impact arms available via trade, and other teams like the Marlins and Brewers might have enough pitching depth to consider dealing a back-end guy for offensive help.

As is the case with virtually every contender, the Mets could probably stand to add a reliever or two. Last year’s bullpen was a top ten unit by both ERA and strikeout/walk rate differential. But Aaron Loup has already departed, and Jeurys Familia (in whom the Mets apparently have some interest in re-signing) and midseason pickups Heath Hembree and Brad Hand all hit free agency.

Edwin Díaz, Trevor May and Seth Lugo make for a quality back-end trio, but adding some middle relief help makes sense. That’s particularly true from the left side, as the Mets don’t have a single southpaw in their projected Opening Day bullpen. Andrew Chafin, Tony Watson and Jake Diekman stand out as the top free agent lefty relievers still available. New York has also been tied to Twins closer Taylor Rogers, who could be attainable in trade.

Catcher stands out as one other potential weak point on the roster. The Mets hoped they’d solidified the position by signing James McCann to a four-year deal last offseason. The veteran was coming off a strong two-year run with the White Sox, but his numbers on both sides of the ball went backwards during his first season in Queens. Without many obvious alternatives available in free agency or trade, the Mets may have to primarily rely on a McCann bounceback, but they could look to replace Tomás Nido as a backup.

It’s certainly possible the Mets biggest activity of the winter is already behind them. Two of the best pitchers in recent memory are in place at the top of the rotation. There’s plenty of star power at the back of the bullpen. The outfield has already been completely remade, and there’s enough depth around the infield that trading away a player or two looks likely.

It’d be justifiable for the front office to view the core as already being in place and to now turn their attention to smaller pickups at the back of the roster. Yet after their November flurry of activity, it’s hard to count the Mets out on anyone. Would ownership push the payroll beyond $300MM for the right player? That’s impossible to tell, since there’s no spending history with Cohen on which to draw. Over the past few years, big-market behemoths like the Dodgers have continued to land star talent even in the absence of a true team “need.” It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Mets take the same approach.

One factor the Mets have to consider whenever major league free agency begins again: the qualifying offer. New York declined to sign first-round pick Kumar Rocker last summer, entitling them to a compensatory pick in next year’s draft. Yet because that compensation pick (#11 overall) is higher than the Mets original choice (#14 overall), they’d forfeit their second pick of the first round were they to sign a free agent who has been tagged with a QO.

That could deter a pursuit of someone like Trevor Story or Nick Castellanos, but there are a few marquee free agents who didn’t receive a QO. Carlos Rodón might be the top starting pitcher still available and wasn’t tagged by the White Sox; deadline target Kris Bryant, ineligible for a QO by virtue of a midseason trade, is unsigned; NPB star Seiya Suzuki is going through the posting process and wouldn’t cost a pick. The Mets probably don’t need to make another splash, but if ownership is willing to keep spending, the front office could explore their options.

It’s been another eventful winter in Queens. The Mets again have new leadership, both atop the front office and in the manager’s chair. They’re flexing financial muscle the likes of which previous ownership never seemed to consider. They’ve landed a couple more stars, and even if the remainder of the offseason involves adjustments on the margins of the roster, expectations will be as high as ever. It has been five years since the Mets last postseason appearance. If the streak reaches six, it’d go down as the club’s biggest disappointment yet.

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Seven Years And Counting For The Orioles Rotation

By | at January 8, 2022 10:39am CDT

Though the Giants have made putting together a starting rotation look easy, most teams struggling to contend know how complex a process building a competent pitching staff can be. Bullpens are fickle, so consistency in run prevention is best guaranteed with a reliable rotation.

The Baltimore Orioles know the challenge better than most. The rotation at Camden Yards finished 26th in 2021 by measure of fWAR, but last with a 5.99 ERA and 5.41 FIP. In fact, their rotation has finished in the bottom-10 by ERA AND FIP in every season since 2014. That’s a pretty remarkable run of incompetence. It’s almost impressive, especially considering they were able to overcome those subpar rotations to make the playoffs in 2016 and finish .500 in 2015.

The Orioles invested in their rotation this offseason for the first time in GM Mike Elias’ tenure. Small as that investment was (they signed Jordan Lyles to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a team option for a second season), it’s a step in the right direction. Lyles alone isn’t going to keep the Orioles from an 8th consecutive season with a bottom-10 rotation. He made 30 starts in 2021 and finished with exactly 0.0 fWAR, after all. But he also tossed 180 innings, which makes a difference in saving a bullpen and providing enough breathing room for young rotation arms to thrive.

Forget productivity for a moment. The Orioles rotation will have a watchable rotation if and when D.L. Hall and Grayson Rodriguez establish themselves in the Majors. That duo is likely to start next season in Triple-A, but they’re close. When they arrive, there’s going to be some honest-to-god excitement around Baltimore’s rotation. That duo probably won’t have a full season in the bigs until 2023, however.

There’s at least one more season of fungible, fill-in-the-blanks taking the bump in Baltimore. Just because the big-name prospects aren’t set to arrive doesn’t mean there’s no progress to be made this season. After all, with Lyles and presumptive ace John Means, they’re in a better place than usual.

Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com went through each of their internal candidates to fill out the rotation behind Means and Lyles. Dubroff lists Keegan Akin, Mike Baumann, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Alexander Wells, and Bruce Zimmermann as the incumbent candidates, with Zimmermann as the most accomplished of the group, even if he was most successful as a long man out of the pen.

The other way to build out the rotation, of course, is through free agency. The Orioles aren’t probably going to spend any more than they already have in terms of a one-year salary, but for free agents at the bottom of the hierarchy, Baltimore offers more opportunity than most other rotations around the game. Matt Harvey is the mold, a former star looking to rehabilitate his image.

Harvey posted 1.9 fWAR but only a 6.27 ERA, but he did make 28 starts and toss 127 2/3 innings in 2021. A 4.60 FIP suggests Harvey might have something left in the tank. Besides, amazing though this is, Harvey’s 2021 ranks as the 13th-best output by fWAR during this seven-year run of Orioles’ bottom-feeding. There simply hasn’t been much success of any kind, even the tempered brand of success offered by Harvey in 2021.

Unfortunately for Baltimore, most teams looking for mid-season upgrades have higher standards than the Orioles. Their goal for 2022 should be to add arms that might actually be flippable at the deadline. Lyles qualifies, even if his numbers from last season aren’t all that inspiring.

Other names that might be available to Baltimore are Jose Urena, Mike Fiers, Aaron Sanchez, and/or Mike Foltynewicz. Guys with slightly more upside, say, Chris Archer, Drew Smyly, Chad Kuhl, or Steven Brault might cost a little more than Baltimore wants to spend. Carlos Martinez or Matthew Boyd might present the highest upside, either in terms of their current ability or their eventual trade value, but even those arms are higher up the totem pole than Baltimore has ventured in years past.

What could change that calculus is a trade of Means. There’s not a real high likelihood that Baltimore wants to move Means at this juncture, but if it means selling high on the southpaw, they might consider it. There are enough teams in need of pitching to make Baltimore listen to pitches. If they do move the 28-year-old, they’d probably be better off in the long run, but it all but guarantees another disastrous finish for their starting staff in 2022.

Frankly, Means isn’t unique enough of a talent to hold onto, should the prospect return be right. But teams also haven’t been eager to move prospects of value recently. The longer they hold onto Means, the more his salary will rise, and the lesser of a trade piece he becomes.

Then again, teams generally aren’t as desperate in the offseason because there are more options available and more margin for error with a full season ahead. If they hold onto Means to start the year, he will still have a year plus of team control at the deadline, and that might be just the right calculus to make a deal happen.

It’s not hard to blame the Orioles for holding onto Means. Prospects aren’t a sure thing. Kevin Gausman had the best season by fWAR (2016) of any Baltimore starter in this current era, and when they traded him, Zimmermann was a big part of the return. So it’s not as if trading off their starters has yielded the path to a turnaround.

The rub here is that GM Mike Elias has yet to actually try to build a winning rotation. His goal since his arrival has been to build a long-term competitive engine, a process that’s still very much in the works. So they can sign more free agents, and they can trade Means or hold onto him, but until Elias is willing to really give it a go, expect Baltimore’s rotation to stay in the bottom 10.

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MLBTR Poll: Trevor Story’s Contract

By | at January 7, 2022 10:58pm CDT

Earlier this week, we took a look at which teams seemed like the best suitors for Trevor Story once the transactions freeze concludes. Today, we’ll focus on what kind of contract Story can expect to land.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR ranked the former Rockies star as the game’s #8 free agent. During those deliberations, Story proved one of the tougher players to value. While Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and myself ultimately landed on a six-year, $126MM projected contract, there were few players with a wider range of possibilities.

That’s largely because Story hit the market coming off his worst offensive showing in four years. He was a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter between 2018-20, though, and that 2021 downturn was attributable mostly to a poor first half. Story got off to a tough start to the year, including a few weeks on the injured list owing to right elbow inflammation. Yet over the season’s final couple months, his offensive production landed right in line with peak levels.

As is the case with essentially all Rockies hitters, Story produced far better at home than he did on the road. A signing team can expect his road performance to improve once he leaves Colorado, though, since there’s been a fair bit of research suggesting Rockies hitters are adversely disadvantaged on the road — likely due to pitches moving slightly differently at sea level than they do at altitude. It’s perhaps more alarming that Story’s numbers against right-handed pitching have tailed off a bit over the past couple seasons.

He’s a similarly tricky player to value defensively. Public metrics are split on his work. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged Story as an excellent shortstop every year of his career. Statcast’s Outs Above Average was quite bearish on his 2021 performance. There’s little concern about his range, but he has had some issues with throwing errors — to the point that some scouts reportedly believe Story’s a better fit at second base than shortstop.

Projecting Story’s long-term performance is tricky enough, but his market’s influenced by the stacked free agent class of middle infielders. Story wasn’t going to compete with Carlos Correa or Corey Seager at the top of the class. He’s almost two years older than both players and coming off less impressive years. Yet slotting him in among the remaining star free agent shortstops was more challenging.

Ultimately, we placed Story between Marcus Semien and Javier Báez in projected earning power. Semien was projected for a six-year, $138MM deal; Báez landed a five-year, $100MM estimate. Both of those players have already signed, and they each surpassed those expectations. The Rangers landed Semien for $175MM over seven years; Báez got six years and $140MM from the Tigers. Is that an indication that Story could also be looking at a loftier than anticipated deal?

What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Story’s eventual guarantee wind up?

(poll link for app users)

How Much Guaranteed Money Will Trevor Story Receive?

  • Between $126MM and $140MM 28% (2,886)
  • Between $100MM and $126MM 26% (2,698)
  • Between $140MM and $175MM 24% (2,549)
  • Less than $100MM 15% (1,544)
  • More Than $175MM 7% (728)

Total votes: 10,405

 

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Extension Candidate: Adley Rutschman

By | at January 7, 2022 5:59pm CDT

Within the last four years, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Evan White, and Scott Kingery all signed their first multi-year Major League contracts before even debuting in the Show, as clubs began to increasingly explore the idea of the “pre-career” extension.  The logic is simple — if a team thinks it has a can’t-miss prospect, signing that prospect to an extension before his service clock begins can give the team both cost-certainty over the player’s arbitration years, as well as control over at least a few free agent years via club options.

Robert’s six-year, $50MM pact with the White Sox (that could be an eight-year, $88MM deal if Chicago exercises a pair of club options) in January 2020 represents the high-water mark for pre-career deals, yet it is worth noting that the Astros were something of a pioneer with this tactic.  Jon Singleton signed a five-year, $10MM contract in June 2014 before playing his first MLB game, and Houston also notably explored such a contract with George Springer prior to the future All-Star’s big league debut.  This period overlaps with Mike Elias’ time (2012-18) in the Astros’ front office, and now that Elias has since moved on to run his own team as the Orioles’ executive VP and general manager, it is worth wondering if Elias might attempt locking up his own blue-chip prospect.

Adley Rutschman is widely expected to not only make his MLB debut in 2022, but also get the bulk of playing time as Baltimore’s starting catcher.  Jacob Nottingham and Anthony Bemboom were recently signed to minors deals to provide at least some Major League experience in the team’s catching ranks, but either will just be a placeholder until Rutschman gets the call to the big leagues.  Whether this debut happens on Opening Day or a few weeks into April may hinge on whether or not the service-time manipulation issue is addressed in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, but an extension for Rutschman would make that question moot, and guarantee that Baltimore fans will get to see Rutschman as soon as possible.

The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Rutschman has done nothing but reinforce that pedigree during his brief pro career.  Rutschman already received two promotions up the ladder (to A-ball) in his first season in 2019, and after working out at the Orioles’ alternate training site in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, he tore up the farm system in 2021.  The catcher hit .285/.397/.502 with 23 home runs over 543 combined plate appearances with Double-A Bowie (358 PA) and Triple-A Norfolk (185 PA).

An argument can be made that Rutschman could use a bit more seasoning at the Triple-A level, particularly since he’ll be taking over a position that requires so much extra work in terms of pregame preparation and working with pitchers.  However, as noted in Baseball America’s scouting report, Rutschman may be a bit ahead of the curve in this respect, due to his time spent with veteran pitchers, catchers, and Major League coaches at the 2020 alternate training site.  Plus, Rutschman was already seen as a strong defender even in his college days at Oregon State, and BA now gives him a strong 60 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale (to go along with an eye-popping three 70 grades in hitting, power, and throwing arm.)  Both BA and MLB Pipeline rate Rutschman as the best prospect in all of baseball.

In short, Rutschman seems like the kind of cornerstone prospect that any team would covet, especially an Orioles club that has been grinding through a top-to-bottom rebuild during Elias’ entire tenure.  The O’s already see Rutschman as the next face of the franchise, and an extension would only cement that status.  Given that the Orioles have almost literally no money on the books beyond the 2022 season, there’s plenty of payroll space to commit to a hefty contract for the burgeoning star.

For Rutschman and other star prospects presented with pre-career extensions, the question is simple.  Does the player feel comfortable in taking a big payday now and locking in at least one eight-figure fortune from his baseball career, or does the player feel like betting on himself to perform as expected in the majors?  The latter route carries more risk, but potentially sets the player up for even more money down the road, either through rising arbitration salaries, bigger free agent money once he hits the open market, or even a later extension with his current team.

From a pure dollars perspective, Rutschman has already achieved some solid financial security, via his $8.1MM signing bonus from the draft.  This isn’t necessarily an indicator that he would be less open to an extension — Robert, for instance, already had a $26MM international signing bonus in the bank prior to his extension with the White Sox.

The added wrinkle in this case is Rutschman’s position.  No catcher has ever signed a pre-career extension — expanding the list to players with less than a year of service time, the Royals’ February 2012 deal with Salvador Perez represents the earliest pact ever given to a backstop.  Needless to say, Rutschman won’t be signing for a contract similar to Perez’s five years and $7MM in guaranteed money, though Perez did end up doing much better in two subsequent extensions with Kansas City.

Rutschman is enough of a top-tier prospect that the Orioles probably won’t have much concern over guaranteeing a big long-term deal to a catcher.  From Rutschman’s perspective, taking a big contract now might have some appeal as a hedge against potential injury, simply because catchers inevitably receive so much wear and tear (even if the DH or a potential move to first base down the road can help).  Plus, unless the next CBA adjusts when players are eligible to reach free agency, it will be quite some time before Rutschman can hit the open market.  He turns 24 in February, so if his debut is indeed pushed off to mid-April for service-time reasons, Rutschman won’t be scheduled for free agency until he is entering his age-31 season.

So while there are some valid reasons why Rutschman might be open to an extension early in his career, that doesn’t necessarily mean he would take a deal before his career gets underway.  It can be assumed that a Rutschman extension would top Robert’s record, and yet Rutschman might have eyes on a bigger target — such as the 11-year, $182MM deal Wander Franco just signed with the Rays in November.

Since Joe Mauer is the only catcher to sign a deal worth more than $182MM, Rutschman won’t top Franco’s number.  Plus, Franco is both younger (turning 21 in March) and plays shortstop, so he is more of a safer long-term play for an extension, even for a lower-payroll club like the Rays.  However, while Rutschman and his representatives likely wouldn’t be aiming to top Franco’s contract, the deal does serve as a reminder of the greater riches that can await a star prospect if he exhibits even some of that early promise at the MLB level.  While no reports surfaced whether or not Tampa explored a pre-career extension with Franco, had he inked such a contract, it would have been worth much less than his eventual $182MM guarantee.

Obviously, matching Franco’s excellent 2021 performance is no small feat for any player, especially a rookie like Rutschman.  But, just staying on the field and performing pretty well in 2022 would represent a nice showcase for Rutschman, and give the Orioles even more confidence in committing a major sum closer to the $100MM mark than simply a bump over Robert’s $50MM pact with the White Sox.

Given Rutschman’s status as an elite prospect, it is quite possible an extension akin to Robert’s deal could be on the table next winter anyway even if he doesn’t quite hit the “performing pretty well” threshold.  Barring a major injury or an unusual amount of struggles at the MLB level, the Orioles would likely still have interest in extending Rutschman prior to his sophomore year, considering all of his widely-touted potential.

A Rutschman extension would also have no small amount of symbolic value for the franchise.  Simply promoting Rutschman might have that same galvanizing effect on the long-suffering Baltimore fans, so Elias and the front office don’t necessarily need to rush into things just yet.  However, officially planting the financial flag on a new era of Orioles baseball would set a clear direction that the rebuild is almost over, and the organization will again start spending and looking to play some competitive baseball.

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What You Thought Was The Most Questionable December Deal Five Years Ago

By | at January 6, 2022 10:54pm CDT

While news of minor league deals, international signings, and coaching hires continue to trickle in, much of the baseball fandom has stayed engaged thanks to one thing: speculation. For weeks, fans and writers have used what information they can gather during MLB’s lockout to predict what the next CBA will look like, which free agents will sign where, and who is going to draw the most trade buzz. With little in the way of breaking news many of us have shifted gears towards thinking about the future, though now seems as optimal a time as any to reflect on the past.

Five years ago in December 2016, the baseball hot stove was cranked all the way up. Outside of one day in the beginning of the month, it’s easy to hail 2016’s closing month as more consistently action-packed with baseball news than the December we just experienced. In fact, December of 2016 was so rife with moves that MLBTR crafted a poll, titled “Dubious December Decisions“, asking readers which recent move they found to be the most questionable.

Several contentious baseball moves were made five Decembers ago, but for the poll’s sake we zeroed in on three: The Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton, in which they surrendered then-prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning; the Rockies’ decision to sign outfielder/shortstop Ian Desmond to a 5-year $70MM deal and play him at first base, forfeiting the 11th overall pick in the amateur draft; and the Yankees’ decision to sign Aroldis Chapman to a record 5-year, $86MM deal.

Nearly 15,000 people voted in this 2016 poll and ranked the moves as follows, with higher vote percentages representing the most skepticism:

  • Adam Eaton to Nationals (50%)
  • Ian Desmond to Rockies (32.2%)
  • Aroldis Chapman to Yankees (13.1%)
  • Other (3.6%)

The Eaton deal proved far and away the most head-scratching by voters, who questioned why the Nationals would surrender some of their best prospects for a right fielder when a certain Bryce Harper already had the position covered.  Advocates of the deal on the Nationals side were quick to point out that Giolito, the headlining prospect of the deal, didn’t look very promising in his first Major League action during the 2016 season. Eaton, meanwhile, was signed to an affordable contract through the 2021 season, averaged a 119 OPS+ and 5.3 bWAR in the three seasons prior to the deal, and could play center field until there was a vacancy in right field (hint: there was).

Early returns for the Nationals side of the deal didn’t seem as terrible as many feared. Eaton struggled to stay healthy, but was productive offensively, slashing .288/.377/.425 (109 OPS+) in his first three seasons in the NL. Giolito went on to have his worst minor league season in 2017 and gave up the most earned runs of any pitcher in 2018. Lopez generally struggled across those three years out of the White Sox rotation, outside of a decent 2018 showing, while Dunning pitched well, albeit exclusively in the minor leagues.

The past couple of years have quite handily tipped the trade in Chicago’s favor however. The right-handed Giolito turned a sharp corner entering the 2019 season, and has now garnered Cy Young consideration every year since his ’19 emergence. Lopez has had trouble with consistency, but is coming off a season that saw him pitch out of the bullpen at times to post a cumulative 3.43 ERA. Dunning, meanwhile, was the key piece in the trade that sent Lance Lynn from Texas to Chicago.

Eaton saw his production crater in 2020 and ultimately had his 2021 option bought out by the Nationals. Adding some insult to injury, Eaton ended up signing with the White Sox as their regular right fielder before last season. Eaton’s 2021 Chicago tenure didn’t last long, as he managed 58 games before being designated for assignment. He latched on with the Angels for a spell but couldn’t quite reignite the abilities that made him such a trade commodity back in 2016. He’s now in a state of limbo while he mulls retirement.

While the young pieces surrendered in the Eaton trade make that deal seem the most regrettable in hindsight, a win-now Nationals club benefitted from Eaton when they needed him most. In the 2019 World Series that the team would go on to win, Eaton slashed an incredibly useful .320/.433/.560 with two home runs and a steal for good measure. Neither the Rockies or Yankees have taken home a World Series trophy in the past five years, though it’s hard to attribute their 2016 deals as the reason for that common distinction.

Unlike the Eaton deal, the Desmond deal largely proved a sunk cost from the very beginning. In his first year in Colorado, Desmond was unable to match his All-Star form in Texas, slashing .274/.326/.375 while learning a new position. Desmond produced a 20-20 season in 2018, but his accompanying OPS+ of 83 left a lot to be desired from a first baseman in Coors Field. Desmond shifted to the outfield full time in 2019 and again chipped in 20 homers, though his offensive and defensive contributions were consistently regarded below average.

Desmond has since opted out of the two most recent seasons, owing to pandemic conditions and a desire to be with his family. The Rockies bought out an option on Desmond’s contract in November, sending him to free agency and potentially spelling an end to the respected veteran’s Major League career.

While the Desmond contract was a misstep for the Colorado front office, it can be argued that they weren’t “$14MM and a better first baseman” away from being championship contenders at any point during Desmond’s tenure. The front office gambled on an All Star’s upside and it didn’t quite pan out, only costing money— mostly.

The Rockies aren’t entirely off the hook for this deal yet considering they surrendered a high draft pick to dream on Desmond. Few can be sure who the Rockies would have selected with the 11th overall pick in 2017, of course, or how the player would have developed in Colorado’s farm system. Still, it may sting Rockies fans to know that All-Star Marlins pitcher Trevor Rogers was taken two picks after the sacrificed pick, at 13th overall. The rest of the first round has yet to produce any All-Stars, though it does feature a number of highly regarded prospects, including touted Royals first base prospect Nick Pratto.

The Yankees portion of the poll is much more cut and dry review-wise than the first two deals. Fans didn’t think the Yankees would regret this deal as much as the other clubs and they were proven correct.

Chapman has been as advertised, flashing erratic control in his first three seasons in pinstripes but combining it with lights out stuff. The flame-throwing closer comes with baggage and has a habit of making things interesting, but he’s been so effective that the Yankees reached a new agreement with Chapman back in 2019, keeping him in the fold through the 2022 season. Since signing that contract extension, Chapman has pitched to a 3.31 ERA with an elite 41.3% strikeout rate that largely makes up for an unenviable 14.6% walk rate. Even if Chapman struggles next season, it’s hard to say New York hasn’t already come out ahead on their partnership with the closer.

All that said, our readers proved that informed speculation can age quite well. Flags will fly forever in D.C., but it’s surely a tough pill for a retooling Nats club to swallow now that every one of their traded prospects has proved valuable elsewhere. But what do you think? Do you feel like the Rockies’ deal should have garnered the distinction of being the most questionable? After all, even if the Nationals overpaid to acquire Eaton, one could argue it was a more logical decision than signing a non-first baseman as a first baseman. Or perhaps you have another deal from December ’16 that you feel deserves more head-shaking and finger-wagging. Be sure to let us know in the comments!

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Which Teams Are The Best Fits For Trevor Story?

By | at January 5, 2022 12:24pm CDT

Trevor Story is one of two star free agent shortstops remaining on the market. To some extent, he’s in a second tier of his own at this point. Carlos Correa is the clear prize of the class. He’s two years younger than Story with more upside on both sides of the ball, and there’ll be a fairly significant gap in each player’s respective contract reflecting that.

Yet Story should be in high demand in his own right. Only one team can land Correa, and many may not want to entertain an asking price that could approach or top the $325MM Corey Seager landed from the Rangers. Story’s the only other shortstop still on the market who’s likely to offer above-average production for the next few seasons.

Let’s take a look at some potential suitors and try to peg Story’s likeliest landing spot. A few clubs are such longshots they only warrant cursory mention. The Orioles, Pirates and D-Backs aren’t in the kind of competitive window that suggests they’d make this kind of splash. The A’s and Reds are far likelier to cut payroll than make a nine-figure investment. The Rays, Brewers and Royals don’t typically spend at this level and have an abundance of infielders anyways. The Rangers have already signed both Seager and Marcus Semien in the middle infield and have Josh Jung approaching at third base.

Which teams make more sense?

Clubs With Infield Opportunity And Known Interest

  • Mariners — Jon Heyman of the MLB Network indicated prior to the lockout that the Mariners had put an offer on the table to Story. Seattle’s known to be pursuing infielders, and while they could roll with a group of Ty France, Adam Frazier, J.P. Crawford and Abraham Toro, adding Story would be a nice boost on both sides of the ball. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been adamant about keeping Crawford at shortstop, but if Story’s amenable, he could slide to second base and push Frazier and/or Toro into roving utility roles.
  • Astros — The Astros are facing Correa’s potential departure and have Aledmys Díaz as their top in-house option at shortstop. Top prospect Jeremy Peña isn’t far off big league readiness, but Houston’s a win-now club without many vacancies on the roster. Aside from perhaps left-handed relief, shortstop is the only real question mark. Signing Story would reaffirm their position as one of the best teams in the sport, and Heyman reported they’ve shown some interest.
  • Red Sox — Heyman also reported the Red Sox had expressed interest with Story’s camp. Xander Bogaerts is a star, but he can opt out of his current contract after next season. Boston also has some uncertainty at second base, and either of Story or Bogaerts could slide to the other side of the diamond. As with Houston, this is a big-market team that wasn’t far from a championship last year.

Solid Speculative Fits

  • Angels — The Angels in-house shortstop options (Tyler Wade, Luis Rengifo, Jack Mayfield and Andrew Velazquez) aren’t enough for a hopeful contender. Los Angeles already has a few long-term investments for position players on the books, and they may still want to add another arm or two on the pitching staff. Locking in some certainty in the middle infield is a necessity, though, and Story fits the bill.
  • Blue Jays — The Jays have Bo Bichette at shortstop, but they’re facing some questions at both second and third base. They signed Semien to move off shortstop last winter; might they consider a similar tack with Story? There seems to be some payroll flexibility with which to work, as Toronto made a run at Seager before he landed in Texas.
  • Cardinals — The Cardinals could try to upgrade over the Paul DeJong/Edmundo Sosa pairing at shortstop. That’s particularly true if DeJong ends up traded. To this point in the winter, though, there hasn’t been much indication that’s a priority for St. Louis. The Cardinals seem more interested in upgrading the bullpen and perhaps adding to the DH mix.
  • Cubs — The Cubs have been tied to Correa for much of the winter. They’re reportedly loath to commit to a decade-long deal, and Story could make sense as a fallback. The Cubs have taken a step back recently, and perhaps they view Correa as a unique player worth spending for. Would they pivot to Story or be content to ride things out with their internal options?
  • Dodgers — The Dodgers lost Seager and haven’t done much to replace him this winter. The Trea Turner acquisition at last summer’s deadline could be the necessary shortstop replacement, with Chris Taylor/Gavin Lux/Max Muncy logging action at second base. Los Angeles has been tied to Correa, though, suggesting they’re open to a star shortstop.
  • Phillies — The Phillies have question marks in both positions on the right side of the infield. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has already told incumbent Didi Gregorius he’s not assured of keeping the shortstop job. Story’s a great fit on paper, particularly given the team’s desire to upgrade defensively. The question: will they want to commit huge resources at shortstop with question marks at third base, the bullpen and two outfield spots?
  • Twins — The Twins are trying to immediately rebound from a disastrous 2021 season. They essentially don’t have a starting shortstop. Jorge Polanco had a very good season offensively after moving from shortstop to second base. He could theoretically move back to short, with Luis Arráez stepping in at second. Yet that’s a suboptimal defensive group. Adding a shortstop makes sense, but Minnesota might prefer to allocate their resources to a rotation that has at least two vacancies.
  • White Sox — The White Sox have a question mark at second base. That was the case at the trade deadline too, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported at the time they considered a deal for Story. Nothing materialized, but it stands to reason they’d have some interest in a run at him now that he’s a free agent. The potential hold-up, as with a few other teams, is finances. Chicago’s already at a projected franchise record in terms of player spending.
  • Yankees — The Yankees entered the offseason with such a glaring need at shortstop that general manager Brian Cashman frankly stated they “have to address” the position. So far, they haven’t. Correa and Story are their last hopes at making an impact add via free agency, but various reports throughout the winter suggested they might look for lower-cost stopgap options with top prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe not far off big league readiness. Would the Yankees pivot to sign a higher-impact player like Story once the new CBA is in place and they have a clearer picture of the luxury tax landscape?

Longer Shots

  • Giants — The Giants have a ton of payroll space, but reports have suggested they’d prefer to spread their resources around rather than commit to a star free agent. Brandon Crawford is already locked in at shortstop. San Francisco could turn to Story as an upgrade over Tommy La Stella at second base, but the outfield and pitching staff seem like cleaner fits if they do reverse course and make a big splash.
  • Guardians — The Guardians have never gone beyond a $60MM guarantee on a single player. There’s essentially no long-term commitments on the books and Cleveland could add at shortstop and push Amed Rosario into the outfield, but it’s unlikely unless Story’s market unexpectedly craters.
  • Marlins — The Marlins are trying to add to the offense, but Story’s probably out of their price range. With Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Miguel Rojas in the middle infield, the outfield seems like a bigger priority anyways.
  • Nationals — The Nationals have long-term payroll space and an obvious need at shortstop. They could sign Story with an eye towards locking in some certainty for 2023 and beyond, but that kind of splash doesn’t seem to be in the cards this offseason.
  • Rockies — Story’s former club has expressed interest in bringing him back. There’s no indication they’ve kept in contact through the offseason, though. Story has expressed some frustration with the organization’s management in the past, and it’d be a real surprise if he ends up returning.
  • Tigers — The Tigers have been active this winter and could still try to upgrade at second base. After signing Javier Báez to a six-year deal, though, they don’t look likely to be a serious player for Story.

Can Never Rule Them Out, But There Are Probably Other Priorities

  • Braves — The Braves have been quiet thus far, seemingly waiting out a decision from Freddie Freeman. They’ve already got Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley around the infield, so there’s no real need. Yet they’ve been tied to Correa, at least suggesting some openness to adding a shortstop (perhaps then trading Swanson for pitching help).
  • Mets — The Mets went hog-wild after installing their new front office. They’re seemingly in line to shatter whatever CBT thresholds are put in place, and with that kind of financial backing from owner Steve Cohen, it’s impossible to rule them out on anyone entirely. Shortstop’s already accounted for with Francisco Lindor, though, and Jeff McNeil, Robinson Canó, J.D. Davis and newcomer Eduardo Escobar are already on hand as second/third base options. Starting pitching looks to be the bigger priority at this point, particularly since signing Story — who rejected a qualifying offer — would require the forfeiture of the #14 overall pick in next year’s draft.
  • Padres — President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has boldly struck even in the absence of an obvious team need before. But with Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth, there’s already a great infield in place.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where is Story likely to end up after the lockout?

(poll link for app users)

Where Will Trevor Story Sign?

  • Yankees 17% (1,625)
  • Mariners 12% (1,151)
  • Astros 10% (966)
  • Blue Jays 8% (778)
  • Cardinals 7% (679)
  • Red Sox 7% (627)
  • Angels 6% (528)
  • Phillies 5% (463)
  • Cubs 4% (369)
  • White Sox 4% (341)
  • Twins 2% (220)
  • Dodgers 2% (180)
  • Mets 2% (150)
  • Tigers 2% (147)
  • Rockies 2% (144)
  • Braves 1% (117)
  • Brewers 1% (116)
  • Rangers 1% (114)
  • Reds 1% (113)
  • Giants 1% (105)
  • Orioles 1% (96)
  • Pirates 1% (86)
  • Nationals 1% (81)
  • Padres 1% (76)
  • A's 1% (63)
  • Guardians 1% (58)
  • D-Backs 0% (38)
  • Rays 0% (27)
  • Royals 0% (25)
  • Marlins 0% (23)

Total votes: 9,506

 

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Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

By | at January 4, 2022 9:09pm CDT

For the first time since before Bryce Harper played for Washington, the Nationals are basement dwellers in the NL East for consecutive seasons. Coming off their title season in 2019, their 26-34 finish in the truncated 2020 was easy to write-off as a result of the pandemic, but after 97 losses in 2021, there’s little doubt left: the Nationals need a reboot.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

It’s been barely two years since Howie Kendrick scraped paint off the Astros’ right field foul pole, but the mainstays from that 2019 title team are almost all gone now. The trade deadline deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers was a gut punch for the fanbase and the unofficial end to the first competitive era of Nationals baseball. The Nats got their rings at what now seems like the last possible moment for the Scherzer/Strasburg era.

They weathered the loss of Harper for that one magical season, but since their road warrior heroics at Minute Maid Park, the franchise has been in relative disarray. Losing mainstays like Anthony Rendon and Sean Doolittle changed the complexion of the roster, but no loss will be felt quite like Scherzer and Turner. Scherzer and Turner are two of the more visually stunning talents in the game as well as two of the most productive at their positions. After years of enjoying the brute force of Scherzer’s personality and Turner’s whiplash-inducing speed/power combo, the Nats no longer offer a symphony of baseball talent to the crowds in Southeast DC – they now have a one-man-band.

That said: Juan Soto is a gem. Had the Nationals been anywhere near the playoffs, the 22-year-old might have his first MVP award. Instead, a .313/465/.534 campaign yielded “just” his first All-Star appearance and second silver slugger. He is the runner-up in MVP voting, somehow notching his third top-10 finish in four seasons. He might have the best plate discipline of any hitter since Barry Bonds, and despite his age, he’s now led the Majors in on-base percentage for two years running.

There is no praise too high for Soto. Given a league-wide re-draft, Soto would be a top-5 pick, full stop. The only thing keeping him from being among the highest jersey sales in the league is his market and physical skills that don’t jump out of the screen as it does for the three juniors, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Even the downsides to his game are fairly innocuous: Soto won’t steal 30 bases, and he doesn’t play a premium position. Reach deep and you could say that his power is relatively mortal (.221 ISO this season, 29 home runs). He may not be a power hitter of the strictest order, but he’s on his way. It’s a tool in his toolbelt and an area of potential growth as he ages into his physical prime.

He’s not going to get any faster, but he has shown an ability and willingness to improve in the outfield, even as he shifted from left to right field. It’s certainly possible to imagine a future where Soto spends some time as a designated hitter, but that’s not going to bother Nats’ fans. Where he plays in the field isn’t nearly as pressing as which field he calls home.

With three years until Soto’s free agency, the Nationals have entered the countdown era. It’s easy to imagine the cloud of Soto’s potential departure hanging over this franchise much like Kris Bryant‘s free agency timeline dominated narratives for the post-title Cubs. Unfortunately, as a Scott Boras client, Soto isn’t likely to surrender his leverage anytime soon. And it’s hard to ignore the Nats’ recent habit of letting giant stars walk out the door.

The optimists would cite Boras’ purportedly good relationship with Nats’ ownership. Sure, Rendon and Harper both walked, but it was unclear how fully committed the Nats were to bring them back. They committed to Strasburg, and he did return – for better or for worse.

For Soto, it ought to help that he already won a ring in Washington, but GM Mike Rizzo will probably have to convince ownership to make Soto the richest man in the game in order to lock him up long-term. Luckily, the Nats are one of many teams that can’t really be priced out for any one free agent. Whatever the cost, they can pay it if they’re willing.

Regardless, the next three seasons are likely to play out as an extended courtship wherein Rizzo and owner Mark Lerner try to convince Soto that they can build a competitive engine around him that’s worth helming. Ironically, the Nationals are asking the Majors’ walks and OBP leader for patience.

That process began in earnest with the Scherzer/Turner trade. The move wasn’t just about sucking a last bit of value from Scherzer before he departed in free agency. It kickstarted a retooling effort around Soto. That much was evident in their return package.

Josiah Gray stepped directly into Scherzer’s rotation spot, and they need to see him turn into a mid-rotation starter by the end of 2022. The big fish of the deal, however, was Keibert Ruiz, a long-touted catching prospect who may replace Victor Robles as Soto’s primary running mate on the position player side. Ruiz may not be a middle-of-the-order bat, but he makes contact, should hit for power, and if he turns into a first division catcher as expected, he’ll play a large role in managing the pitching staff.

Amazingly, entering his age-23 season, Ruiz will be young for a rookie in his first full season, and still older than Soto. Regardless, after posting a 101 wRC+ in 96 plate appearances, which included a particularly resilient end to the year (112 wRC+ in Sept/Oct), Ruiz will enter 2022 as Washington’s starting catcher. That’s an exciting development for Nats fans and a good first step to the “Courting Soto” era of Nats’ baseball, but it’s not enough to make them a contender.

Side note: Riley Adams, acquired from the Blue Jays for Brad Hand before the Dodgers’ deal, nicely complements Ruiz as the backup catcher, even if he does look as big as a house crouching behind the dish. After years of Matt Wieters underperformance and the steady-but-uninspiring upgrade to Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have their most exciting catchers’ room, perhaps, in franchise history.

Next to Soto in the outfield, Robles is the dream, but Lane Thomas is the reality. Acquired in an under-the-radar deal that sent Jon Lester to the Cardinals, Thomas took off while getting playing time as the Nats’ everyday centerfielder. The 26-year-old hit .270/.364/.489 in 206 plate appearances – easily the most opportunity he’s seen in the bigs. Thomas figures to see more chances in 2022, but what that means for Robles isn’t totally clear. Thomas could return to a fourth outfielder role, but since the Nats don’t currently have a left fielder, it’s difficult to speculate. Robles may have to play himself back into a regular role if he’s able.

As for left field, Yadiel Hernandez posted a solid 98 wRC+, though that number was dragged down by a 79 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter. But he’s also 34-years-old and not probably more than a backup plan for Washington. Andrew Stevenson is the other name on the roster, and he’s proven best as a fourth or fifth option coming off the bench. There’s likely to be another outfielder to join this group once the lockout is resolved. Think Kyle Schwarber again, though probably not Kyle Schwarber again.

Another potential option that they explored in 2021 was using Josh Bell in left field. That’s not an ideal plan for a guy most people think is best-suited as a designated hitter. Bell could very well be dealt before the start of the season, but if not, he’s more likely to be the everyday first baseman and a break-in-case-of-emergency option in the grass.

At shortstop, Alcides Escobar made it back to the Majors for the first time in years, managed to play respectably, and earned a one-year, $1MM deal to stay in Washington. He’s the presumptive starter heading into the year, but the financial commitment isn’t exactly starter’s money. They could surprise everyone by making a play for Carlos Correa, and they could afford it, but there’s been little indication that Rizzo is ready to make that kind of splash this offseason.

That said, there’s not necessarily a shortstop of the future anywhere in the minors until you get to Jackson Cluff or young Brady House. The latter is years away and could end up at third base anyhow. Luis Garcia may be the answer the Nats are ready to settle on. He was a top prospect who was rushed to the Majors in 2020, and there have been growing pains since. He’s a second baseman, but since Cesar Hernandez was brought in on a one-year, $4MM deal, the keystone may be occupied. That could signal a desire for the 21-year-old to get more seasoning time in the minors, and it could mean that they are ready to let Garcia play short. Both options are somewhere in the playbook.

At the hot corner, time is running out for Carter Kieboom. The former top prospect is still just 24, but he’s put up successive seasons of 67 and 68 wRC+, and it’s not as if he’s been a stud with the glove. Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of other options for the Nationals right now. They’ve been tied at times to Bryant, and it’s been suggested that they could be a landing spot for a salary dump like Mike Moustakas, but that’s all speculative for now.

For the first part of the offseason at least, the Nationals took a throw-as-many-options-at-the-wall-as-possible approach. They signed Dee Strange-Gordon, Maikel Franco, and Richard Urena to minor league contracts. They claimed fleet-footed Lucius Fox off waivers from the Orioles. They brought back long-time extra body Adrian Sanchez on a minor league deal. They snagged Andrew Young off waivers from the Diamondbacks. That’s a veteran group that looks very Nationals-y, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or a pair of them make the roster.

The real problem for the Nationals, however, is the pitching. The rotation is up there as the most uncertain group in all of baseball. Gray is still establishing himself, Strasburg is perennially injured, and Corbin was among the worst rotation arms in baseball last season. If he can figure out his slider, and Stras can get himself back on the mound, there’s some ceiling for this group, but it’s not a real likely potentiality.

Joe Ross (again) flashed some ability to be a mid-range starter, but he (again) finished the year on the injured list. Ross looks to have avoided Tommy John surgery for now, but the rest-and-rehab approach doesn’t always end well. Counting on Ross for quality innings is about as reckless as counting on Strasburg, Corbin, and Gray.

Josh Rogers and Paolo Espino would be in the 6-10 range for most organizations, but they are starters number four and five as of right now. Espino has been surprisingly productive for an older player without much Majors experience, and Rogers brings plenty of character, but not much of a track record. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth have both started without a whole lot of success, but they’re there in the bullpen just in case.

There are, however, some interesting arms on the horizon. Cade Cavalli is the biggest of the bunch, and he’s rising fast enough that he could surprise and make it to the Majors next year. The Nationals need Cavalli to stay healthy and develop into an impact arm. He looked the part in Double-A before getting touched up a bit in seven starts in Triple-A, where he should return to start 2022. Jackson Rutledge, Aldo Ramirez, Andry Lara, and Mason Denaburg are all names worth tracking, but they aren’t near enough to the Majors to make a difference.

For prospect arms capable of logging significant big league innings, look to Seth Romero, Joan Adon, Gerardo Carrillo, or maybe Evan Lee, all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Cole Henry is highly thought of within the organization, but he has just 8 starts in High-A and would have to be added to the 40-man. Carrillo was part of the Scherzer trade, and though he’s not a top prospect, an organization change always sets off alarms for a development jump. There’s no explicit evidence for that jump yet, and he has yet to make a stop in Triple-A.

On the whole, the Nats are beginning to put together an interesting collection of depth arms, but they don’t have the foundational pieces in the Majors. Not in the rotation, and not in the bullpen. They big adieu to Suero, a regular-use, one-pitch setup arm that’s been in the bullpen for years, and they DFA’ed Ryne Harper as well, another veteran option. Will Harris is the most proven arm remaining in the pen, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to prove it since yielding that long ball to Kendrick while with the Astros way back when.

Kyle Finnegan laid claim to the closer’s role, saving 11 games over 68 appearances with a 3.55 ERA/4.62 FIP. He’d be a useful arm in a first division pen, but not someone to build around. Tanner Rainey has the best stuff, but he took a step back last year and has struggled with consistency throughout his career. There’s a world in which Rainey goes big-time in ’22, but as with most of the Nats’ arms, Rainey’s stardom is more dream than reality right now.

Patrick Murphy was an interesting pickup worth watching as a guy who can go short or long, depending on need. The rest of the bullpen is very much a work in progress with Fedde, Voth, and late-developing Andres Machado highest on the pecking order.

In the first part of free agency, the Nationals weren’t very active, and it shows in the state of their roster. They need a left fielder and a DH/first baseman to split time with Bell if the DH arrives in the National League. Zimmerman could return still, and he’d fit nicely on a cheap contract as a right-handed complement for Bell, but he’s not an everyday player anymore.

They could stand upgrades at shortstop and third base, though it’s probably not worth displacing Garcia/Kieboom unless they get a significant star (and that seems unlikely this offseason). Besides, any money they have to spend should really be committed to pitching, though there’s not as much available on the free-agent market.

Long-term, Corbin has “just” three years left on his deal, so there’s light at the end of the tunnel. As of now, they’re still roughly $50MM under their 2021 payroll, and even that $162MM number was their lowest in years. Strasburg’s money is significant, and Boras willing, they’ll plunk down a king’s ransom for Soto at some point. But otherwise, their ledger is mostly empty. Unfortunately, so is their talent pool.

The Nationals are a slow-and-steady franchise, and with the most patient superstar in baseball now the centerpiece of their organization, they’re playing for the future. With just three years left of team control for Soto, that future is fast approaching. The Nats will strike to build a contender around Soto before he leaves. We know that much. We just don’t know the when or the how. To crack those codes, all we need is patience.

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2021-22 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals

Brewers’ Enviable Rotation Depth Could Open Trade Possibilities For Front Office

By | at January 4, 2022 6:51pm CDT

The Brewers’ star rotation trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta has drawn plenty of well-deserved attention. Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award for his excellence in 2021. Woodruff and Peralta were well-deserved All-Star selections, with the former also receiving a solid amount of Cy Young support.

Essentially no one else around the league can match that kind of firepower at the top of the rotation. But Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta weren’t the only Milwaukee starters to have strong showings in 2021. Fourth and fifth starters Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer may not have been as electric as their rotation mates, but they’re both overqualified for back-end roles.

Houser pitched to a 3.22 ERA over a career-high 142 1/3 innings last season. The righty’s 17.5% strikeout rate wasn’t impressive, but Houser’s a ground-ball machine who’s had a decent amount of success despite mediocre whiff rates throughout his career. He owns a solid 3.78 ERA since the start of 2019, showing a knack for suppressing opponents’ exit velocities and keeping the ball in the yard.

Lauer came over from the Padres as part of the Trent Grisham – Luis Urías swap over the 2019-20 offseason. He barely pitched in the majors during his first season in Milwaukee, but the southpaw held down a rotation spot for most of last year. Across 118 2/3 frames, Lauer posted a 3.19 ERA that was far and away the best mark of his career. His strikeout and walk rates — 23.9% and 8.4%, respectively — were right around the respective league averages.

Unlike Houser, Lauer doesn’t excel at keeping the ball on the ground. A 4.24 SIERA suggests he’s probably closer to a league average rotation arm than his ERA — which befits a #2/3 type starter — might suggest. Even still, league average production would be a notable upgrade for many clubs’ starting staffs around the league. There are quite a few hopeful contenders expected to look for back-of-the-rotation help coming out of the lockout, and there’s not much reliability with the remaining free agent starters. Teams like the Reds and A’s might make notable starters available, but clubs looking for back-end help could also view the Brewers as a plausible trade partner.

Milwaukee’s squarely in win-now mode, and there’s a case to be made for them to hold onto their rotation depth. Each of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser and Lauer made 20+ starts last year, and the injury risk associated with any pitcher could make banking on a repeat of that kind of rotation durability risky. On the other hand, Milwaukee also has another promising young arm who could step into a permanent rotation role.

Aaron Ashby has been one of the top prospects in the Brewers system for the past few seasons. Public prospect evaluators have raised some questions about his spotty control, but Ashby has the kind of stuff to succeed against MLB hitters already. He debuted last season and flashed special ability. His 4.55 ERA over 31 2/3 innings isn’t eye-catching, but Ashby struck out 29.3% of opponents and racked up ground-balls at a massive 61.3% clip that even slightly exceeded Houser’s mark. Only White Sox setup man Aaron Bummer matched Ashby’s combination of strikeouts and grounders.

That alone doesn’t guarantee Ashby will be an impact starter. There’d be risk in moving one of Houser or Lauer to entrust him with a full-time rotation spot. But the Brewers at least have to be encouraged by the promise Ashby showed, and a Houser or Lauer trade could enable the front office to creatively address the offense. Milwaukee’s lineup was a touch below-average last season, and they’ve since lost Avisaíl García to free agency. The Brewers acquired Hunter Renfroe to replace García in right field, but the overall lineup could stand to pick up another bat, particularly if the new collective bargaining agreement adds the designated hitter to the National League.

Houser and Lauer are each entering their first season of arbitration eligibility. Assuming there aren’t any changes to the service time structure in the next CBA, they’d remain controllable through 2024. Both pitchers are projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for modest salaries between $2MM and $3MM next season. With Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Ashby all controllable for at least three more years themselves, the Brewers could contemplate dealing from their enviable rotation depth to bolster the offense after the transactions freeze.

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Jorge Polanco’s Bounceback Season

By | at January 4, 2022 5:04pm CDT

In advance of the 2019 campaign, Twins infielder Jorge Polanco signed a $25.75MM guarantee that extended the team’s window of contractual control by three seasons through 2025. It proved to be an opportune time to strike for the Minnesota front office, as Polanco had a breakout showing that year.

Serving as the primary #2 hitter in a Twins lineup that set an all-time record for home runs, the switch-hitting Polanco tallied 704 plate appearances and posted a .295/.356/.485 line. He wasn’t the biggest power threat on that team, but he did pop 22 home runs. Perhaps of more importance, he was one of the lineup’s better contact hitters and on-base threats, setting himself up to score plenty of runs in front of middle-of-the-order presences Nelson Cruz and Max Kepler. Polanco earned his first All-Star appearance and some down-ballot MVP votes for that showing.

Going into 2020, Polanco looked like one of the better offensive middle infielders around. That year’s shortened season was a struggle, though. Over 226 plate appearances, he stumbled to a .258/.304/.354 slash, managing just four homers. His batted ball metrics dipped, and his overall offensive output checked in 20 percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+.

Polanco’s bat bounced all the way back last season. He played in 152 games and tallied 644 trips to the dish, slugging a career-best 33 homers. From a power perspective, the Dominican Republic native had easily his best single-season marks. His .235 ISO (slugging minus batting average) was markedly above the .171 league average. So too were Polanco’s 89.4 MPH average exit velocity, 10.1% barrel rate and 37.4% hard contact percentage, all personal bests.

Few players had a starker improvement between 2020 and 2021. Among players with 200+ plate appearances in 2020 and 500+ plate appearances in 2021, only nine had a bigger year-over-year jump in wRC+. He’d shown in 2019 that he’s capable of putting up this kind of production, but it seems Polanco made an effort to be a bit more aggressive last year.

Before 2021, he’d never offered at more than 45% of pitches he’d seen in a season. Last year, Polanco swung 49.3% of the time, attacking pitches both inside and outside the strike zone at a greater frequency. That’s particularly true on the opening pitches of a plate appearance.

Polanco’s first-pitch swing rate last year was a career-high 26.9%, a few ticks above his 2019 mark of 23.5% and well above 2020’s 16.8%. In each of his two best seasons, Polanco’s done a strong amount of damage on opening pitches of an at-bat. Swinging more often early in counts held his walk rate to a below-average 7%, but his combination of bat-to-ball skills and power meant he was very productive even without drawing many free passes.

In spite of Polanco’s bounceback, the 2021 season was a nightmare for the Twins. The expected contenders fell into last place in the AL Central at 73-89, never looking like realistic postseason threats. They’re not planning to rebuild, and Polanco’s going to enter the 2022 campaign as Minnesota’s regular second baseman. If the Twins continue to struggle and an organizational reboot becomes more plausible at this summer’s trade deadline or next winter, a Polanco trade may eventually become a possibility. For now, the organization will hope the rest of the roster can have a similar bounceback in 2022 as Polanco himself did last year.

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Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

By | at January 4, 2022 1:14pm CDT

As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

(poll links for app users)

Where Will Nick Castellanos Sign?

  • Padres 12% (820)
  • Giants 11% (722)
  • Phillies 11% (708)
  • Cubs 6% (431)
  • Marlins 6% (396)
  • Reds 5% (337)
  • White Sox 5% (308)
  • Red Sox 4% (285)
  • Rangers 4% (249)
  • Blue Jays 3% (215)
  • Braves 3% (190)
  • Cardinals 3% (175)
  • Guardians 3% (174)
  • Tigers 3% (171)
  • Brewers 2% (154)
  • Mariners 2% (141)
  • Dodgers 2% (141)
  • Rockies 2% (141)
  • Yankees 2% (140)
  • Angels 2% (127)
  • Mets 2% (123)
  • Nationals 2% (121)
  • Pirates 1% (74)
  • Orioles 1% (73)
  • Astros 1% (67)
  • Twins 1% (54)
  • A's 1% (45)
  • Royals 1% (44)
  • Rays 1% (37)
  • D-Backs 0% (28)

Total votes: 6,691

 

Where Will Kyle Schwarber Sign?

  • Red Sox 19% (1,202)
  • Phillies 14% (863)
  • Cubs 5% (329)
  • Nationals 5% (328)
  • Cardinals 5% (285)
  • Giants 4% (276)
  • Blue Jays 4% (262)
  • Padres 4% (247)
  • White Sox 4% (246)
  • Yankees 4% (240)
  • Marlins 3% (200)
  • Guardians 3% (162)
  • Mets 3% (159)
  • Rockies 2% (144)
  • Brewers 2% (130)
  • Rangers 2% (127)
  • Reds 2% (124)
  • Braves 2% (121)
  • Tigers 2% (115)
  • Mariners 2% (106)
  • Angels 2% (99)
  • Dodgers 1% (91)
  • Pirates 1% (75)
  • Twins 1% (66)
  • Orioles 1% (54)
  • A's 1% (49)
  • Rays 1% (48)
  • Royals 1% (46)
  • Astros 1% (36)
  • D-Backs 0% (30)

Total votes: 6,260

 

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