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Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?

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The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game.  While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.

The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres.  St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender.  Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season.  The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation.  Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.

The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction.  For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy.  However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason.  It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries.  It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.

Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August.  Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals).  With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.

The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry.  The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins.  While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.

The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions.  The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way.  Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.

Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division.  (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.)  Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September.  The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.

Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)

Who will be the second NL wild card team?
Cardinals 54.73% (7,461 votes)
Padres 17.33% (2,363 votes)
Reds 16.20% (2,209 votes)
Phillies 4.92% (671 votes)
Braves 3.62% (494 votes)
Mets 3.18% (434 votes)
Total Votes: 13,632

Extension Candidate: Teoscar Hernandez

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To some extent, Teoscar Hernandez has been a bit of an overlooked figure on the Blue Jays roster.  He wasn’t part of the homegrown core of young talent, he isn’t exactly young himself since he turns 29 in October, and he wasn’t one of the major free agent signings that have played such key roles for the Jays in 2021 and (the team hopes) into the future.  Hernandez did get a turn in the spotlight when he was voted into the American League’s starting All-Star lineup this past July, marking some overdue recognition of a player who has quietly been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last 26 months.

If “26 months” seems like something of an arbitrary timeline, it is because Hernandez has a pretty clear line of demarcation at almost the exact midpoint of his career.  Prior to July 16, 2019, it wasn’t like Hernandez was a bad player, as he even hit 22 home runs for Toronto during the 2018 season.  However, power was much pretty much all Hernandez had to offer over the first 971 plate appearances of his MLB career, as he swatted 42 home runs but batted only .231/.292/.447.  This led to a 96 wRC+, and between that below-average offensive production and a very subpar outfield glove, there was some question about whether or not Hernandez could develop into anything more than a part-time player.

Needless to say, those questions have been answered.  Hernandez hit a home run against the Red Sox in that July 16 game and then hit two more homers the next day, essentially heralding his arrival as a first-rate hitter.  Over Hernandez’s last 916 plate appearances, he has hit 59 home runs and slashed .285/.343/.548 slash line.  His 136 wRC+ since July 16, 2019 has been topped by only 12 qualified hitters in all of baseball, and he is also tied for eighth in slugging percentage in that timeframe.

Hernandez made some mechanical changes to his swing during a minor league demotion earlier in 2019, though there isn’t really a simple “lightbulb switched on” reason why Hernandez was suddenly much more productive.  Looking at his numbers pre- and post-July 16, 2019, Hernandez’s walk rates have actually declined in the last 26 months, while his strikeout rates have gone from being almost league-worst to merely bad.

Hernandez always made plenty of hard contract, and with a .350 BABIP during the productive half of his career (and a .296 BABIP beforehand), there is some level of good fortune involved in Hernandez’s rise.  That said, Hernandez has helped himself by making more contact in general and hitting more line drives, with his above-average baserunning allowing him to translate that hard contact into hits.

Turning to the defensive side, Hernandez has worked to become a respectable outfielder after struggling so badly in the field earlier in his career.  Over 926 innings (707 in right field, 212 in left) this season, Hernandez has a +0.1 UZR/150 and +1 Outs Above Average, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric still gives him a -2 score.  While a Gold Glove probably isn’t in Hernandez’s future, he has at least proven that he isn’t a DH-only player — which could prove important to his future earning potential.

Hernandez was arbitration-eligible for the first time this season, and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.325MM salary.  He’ll get a sizable raise coming this winter, and then another in the 2022-23 offseason before becoming eligible for free agency following the 2023 campaign.  Should Hernandez keep up his level of offense next year, he should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $17MM in 2022-23 before hitting the open market prior to his age-31 season.

That is, unless the Blue Jays keep him off the open market by working out a contract extension.  With two-plus years remaining of control over Hernandez, the Jays aren’t in any immediate rush to make a decision one way or the other, and naturally quite a few other matters will need to be addressed in the interim.  Re-signing impending free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray seem to be a priority for the club, and one would imagine the Jays will make a hard push to extend Jose Berrios (a free agent after 2022) given how they surrendered such a notable prospect package to acquire him from the Twins at the trade deadline.  Elsewhere on the extension front, Toronto might also look to land some long-term cost certainty over cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, even though both are already controlled through the 2025 season.

In short, Hernandez might find himself somewhat overlooked again, if the Jays are content to go year-by-year.  However, there is some logic in the team exploring a longer deal with the slugger right now.  While the Blue Jays are one of the league’s best offensive teams, the lineup will take a big hit if Semien leaves, and the future depth has been a bit depleted — Cavan Biggio has struggled through an injury-plagued year, Rowdy Tellez was traded to the Brewers, and top prospect Austin Martin was dealt in the Berrios swap.

Speaking of the prospect ranks, the Toronto farm system has plenty of intriguing infielders and pitchers, but the Jays are short on young outfielders ready to make an impact at the big league level.  While that could change in the two years before Hernandez hits free agency, the lack of young outfield depth was one reason the Jays felt compelled to sign George Springer this past offseason.  There isn’t anyone immediately coming to push for Hernandez’s role, and in any case, Hernandez would seem to have a lot more job security than the much more inconsistent Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  Grichuk is signed through 2023 but has provided below-average offense in Toronto, while Gurriel is controlled through 2024 but has been part of trade rumors in the past.

Only Hernandez himself (and maybe his agents at Republik Sports) would know the answer to this subject, but the outfielder also might be eager to lock in the first big payday of his professional career.  Hernandez made more in 2021 than he did in the rest of his career combined, as he received only a $20K bonus when first signing with the Astros back in 2011.  While $7MM+ in arb earnings is lined up for 2022, Hernandez might not want to run the risk of injury or a downturn in performance next season, so he could be open to a deal of fewer additional years, but maybe a higher average annual value in 2024 or 2025.

Grichuk’s four-year/$47MM deal in April 2019 is the only major multi-year extension of the Ross Atkins era, so there isn’t much of a hint about how this front office might approach a Hernandez extension, or if such a deal is even truly on their radar.  The trade that brought Hernandez to Toronto is already one of the canniest moves of Atkins’ tenure as GM, and that trade will only look better if a deal can be worked out so Hernandez can continue to be a big part of the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.

The Giants’ Breakout Young Starter

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Much has been made of the uncertainty in the Giants’ rotation beyond this season. Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto (whose club option is likely to be bought out) are all in line to hit free agency. The San Francisco front office will have their work cut out for them in reconstructing a starting staff, but they do have one long-term building block under control: Logan Webb.

Webb hasn’t gotten as much fanfare as he deserves, probably a byproduct of the numerous bounce-back and breakout seasons up and down the San Francisco roster. His volume has been held in check by a couple of mid-season stints on the injured list due to shoulder troubles. But when Webb has been healthy enough to take the ball — as he is at the moment — he’s been incredible.

The right-hander has been one of the league’s most successful at keeping runs off the board. Webb owns a 2.56 ERA over 112 1/3 frames, the eighth-lowest mark among pitchers with 100+ innings pitched. And he’s unanimously posted strong peripherals. Webb has struck out 27% of batters faced, a mark that’s more than four percentage points better than the 22.7% average for starters. That’s backed up by strong rates of swinging strikes (12.3%) and called strikes (18.8%), both of which are more than a point above average. Webb has always had solid control, and his 6.7% walk percentage this season is lower than the league-wide mark.

While Webb has been at least solid across the board, he’s been truly excellent at keeping the ball on the ground. His 60.8% grounder rate is second-highest (trailing only Framber Valdez) among that same group of starters. Webb has leaned more heavily on his sinker, one of the lower-spinning fastballs in the game, this season. Unlike with four-seamers, the lack of spin is a feature for the sinker. Lower spin makes it less resistant to gravity, generally enabling pitchers to get more downhill action on the offering. Unsurprisingly, his sinker has been one of the best ground-ball pitches in the game.

Webb’s wide array of abilities makes for a rare skillset. Only 17 of the 103 pitchers with 100+ innings have posted better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. That’s not a unanimously great group — Adbert Alzolay and JT Brubaker haven’t had much success, for instance — but it’s certainly a positive indicator. 13 of those 17 hurlers have an ERA of 3.76 or lower, with five posting a sub-3.00 mark.

Webb has been good since the start of the season, but he’s really turned things on of late. Going back to the All-Star Break, he has an MLB-best 1.64 ERA in ten starts with high-end strikeout and walk rates. He’s benefitted from some batted ball and strand luck, but fielding independent pitching metrics still suggest Webb has been highly impressive. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have a SIERA better than Webb’s 3.00 since the Break, and his full-season mark of 3.18 is among the league’s ten best.

While the Giants’ front office will have plenty of decisions to make this offseason, they can at least pencil Webb in at or near the top of the 2022 rotation. The 24-year-old still has four more seasons of team control, and he won’t reach arbitration eligibility until the conclusion of next season. They could contemplate a long-term extension, but there’s still not yet a ton of urgency on that front.

One more pressing call that could be on the table is whether Webb’s breakout season has vaulted him to the top of this year’s rotation. San Francisco holds a one-game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West race after taking two of three from Los Angeles over the weekend. While they’re obviously hoping to hang onto that lead and avoid the Wild Card Game, there’s still a real chance they wind up in a one-game playoff next month.

If that ultimately turns out to be the case, Giants’ brass would face a tough choice deciding to whom to give the ball. Opening Day starter Gausman has been excellent going back two years and might be the top starting pitcher to hit the free agent market this offseason. But Webb has arguably been even better than Gausman this year. They’re essentially tied in ERA. Gausman has a slight edge in punchouts but Webb’s been much better at racking up grounders. Webb has the edge in SIERA and the two have nearly identical marks in FIP (2.89 for Gausman, 2.90 for Webb).

That would be a moot point if the Giants hold onto the division. Even if they do wind up in the Wild Card, having to make that kind of difficult decision is a good “problem” to have. That’s a testimony to Webb’s fantastic campaign, one which makes him the long-term anchor of a Giants’ rotation that could see plenty of upheaval elsewhere a few months from now.

MLBTR Poll: Amed Rosario’s Future

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Amed Rosario found his swing in August. The Indians shortstop slashed .372/.397/.584 in 121 plate appearances across 26 games in August. That effort buoyed his overall line to .288/.327/.422, two percent better than average by measure of wRC+. Among qualified shortstops, Rosario ranks 13th in the Majors, firmly between Javier Baez and Nicky Lopez. Both Baez and Lopez are considered plus defenders, however, while the jury is still out on Rosario (-8 DRS, 1.4 UZR,-1 OAA in 876 innings).

In fact, there’s question as to whether Rosario will be a shortstop at all next season, writes Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. The uncertainty is driven not so much by his glovework, however, but because of Andres Gimenez, whose defensive prowess makes him a better long-term fit for the position. Gimenez has yet to hit for the Indians, but he tore up Triple-A with a .287/.342/.502 line. Still just 22-years-old, the Indians hope that he can seize shortstop as his own next season. If that happens, Rosario could be expendable.

When played together, Cleveland has put Gimenez at the keystone, though that doesn’t seem to be the long-term plan. That might speak to an uneasiness about playing Rosario at second, or it could be that they’d just rather keep the consistency of Rosario at short for this season. In theory, Rosario could have a future at second, but we haven’t seen him play there yet, and Lewis suggests he’s more likely to be utilized in the outfield.

Rosario’s development at the plate, therefore, hasn’t solidified Cleveland’s shortstop picture, but it does provide the organization with the one thing every front office wants these days: flexibility. Rosario could well be used at shortstop, but he could also return to the outfield or even be used as trade bait, Lewis notes.

If he does go back to the grass, it’s more likely to be in one of the corners than in center. Myles Straw has stabilized center, allowing Rosario to slide to a corner to potentially cover for Josh Naylor until he’s healthy enough to return. Rosario spent 123 1/3 innings in center this year, not enough of a sample to make a decision about his defensive ability there, but enough to grant credence to the idea of Rosario as a supersub.

The concern would be that Rosario’s bat doesn’t yet play as a plus in an outfield corner. That said, the depth at shortstop league-wide is such that the positions aren’t as far apart as in the past. By wRC+, Rosario would rank 18th among right fielders with at least 400 plate appearances, or 14th among left fielders – suggesting that Rosario could be a passable option in a corner.

He certainly could have a role as a supersub who plays everyday, but he might bring more value to a club who wants to install him as their everyday shortstop. He has two years of team control remaining, which adds to his appeal.

What happens next might depend on how the 25-year-old finishes the season. Cleveland has time to figure this out, but if Rosario has finally established himself as an everyday regular, the rest is gravy. Now they just have to figure out what to do with him. Can we point them in the right direction?

(poll link for app users)

What Should Cleveland Do With Amed Rosario In 2022?
Starting Shortstop 37.61% (1,405 votes)
Trade Chip 36.88% (1,378 votes)
Supersub 25.51% (953 votes)
Total Votes: 3,736

A’s Loaded Arbitration Class Will Lead To Some Tough Decisions

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The Athletics are squarely in the mix for the second American League Wild Card and, with six remaining games against the first-place Astros still on the schedule, are still alive in the division chase in the American League West as well. Oakland currently trails Houston by four and a half games, so with 28 games left to play, there’s time for a surge to overtake the current leaders.

Oakland’s proximity to a division title and their (at the time) status as a team in possession of the second Wild Card spot surely emboldened the team to go for it at this year’s trade deadline. The acquisition of Andrew Chafin was a solid addition to an already-sound bullpen, but it was the team’s trade for Starling Marte that really grabbed headlines. That’s in part due to Marte’s status as one of the more prominent names on the summer trade market but also due to the fact that Oakland parted with longtime top prospect Jesus Luzardo — five years of control over him to be exact — in exchange for a rental player who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

At the time of the trade, I touched on this a bit, but it’s a concept  that bears a bit more detail. The Athletics have every reason to act aggressively on the trade deadline this summer, because barring a major uptick in the team’s typically thrifty payroll, this could be something of a last hurrah for the current Oakland core.

The A’s don’t have much on the payroll next season — just Elvis Andrus $14MM salary (of which the Rangers are paying $7.25MM) and Stephen Piscotty’s $7.25MM salary. The A’s have a $4MM club option on Jake Diekman that comes with a $750K buyout as well. Most clubs would probably pick that up given his strong season, but it’s at least feasible that given the forthcoming payroll crunch that will be laid out here shortly, the A’s could pass on it.

Those minimal contractual guarantees look nice at first glance, but the Athletics have an enormous arbitration class on the horizon — and it’s not just large in terms of volume. It’s a talented and experienced group of players featuring the majority of Oakland’s most recognizable names: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Deolis Guerra, Burch Smith and (depending on his final service time numbers) perhaps Adam Kolarek. Of that bunch, Manaea and Bassitt are up for their final arbitration raises — the former as a Super Two player. Chapman, Olson, Montas and Trivino are getting their second raises.

I wanted to better ascertain just how expensive a class this is going to be for the Athletics, so I reached out to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for some help. Matt created MLBTR’s Arbitration Projection model, and I asked if he’d be able to put together some projections for the Athletics’ class based on the seasons they’ve had to date. Matt did just that, tacking on each player’s rest-of-season projections from the Steamer projection system to their actual production to date, coming up with the following projections:

  • Matt Olson: $11.8MM
  • Sean Manaea: $10.1MM
  • Matt Chapman: $9.8MM
  • Chris Bassitt: $8.9MM
  • Frankie Montas: $4.8MM
  • Lou Trivino: $3.0MM
  • Ramon Laureano: $2.8MM
  • Chad Pinder: $2.7MM
  • Tony Kemp: $1.8MM
  • Burch Smith: $1MM
  • Deolis Guerra: $900K
  • Adam Kolarek: $800K

(One caveat on the projections themselves: these raises are determined using the 2021 model and standard inflation for the 2022 season. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed not to use 2021 arbitration raises as precedent-setters because of the anomalous nature of last year’s short-season data.)

In all, it’s a projected total of $58.4MM. Add that to the combined salaries of Andrus and Piscotty, and the A’s are up to $72.4MM — $76.4MM if they exercise the option on Diekman. That’s what they’d owe to just 15 players. There are some possible non-tenders in there (Smith and Kolarek, certainly), but for the most part, all of the major names should be expected to be tendered. We don’t know precisely what next year’s minimum salary will be due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement, but even filling out the roster with players earning this year’s minimum would take them up to nearly $80MM — about $6MM shy of their current payroll.

Of course, we know that you can’t simply supplement this group with pre-arbitration players, because the rest of the current roster isn’t made up of pre-arb players. The A’s currently stand to lose not only Marte but also Mark Canha, Yan Gomes, Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Jed Lowrie, Mitch Moreland, Josh Harrison, Mike Fiers and Khris Davis to free agency. Replace that group with readily available, in-house options and you’re probably not looking at a playoff team — certainly not with the Mariners, Angels and Rangers both looking to improve their rosters this winter, making for even tougher competition within the division.

The A’s have never carried an Opening Day payroll greater than $92MM, per Cot’s Contracts — their prorated 2020 payroll may have gotten there — so an arbitration class worth more than $55MM is an immensely expensive group for ownership. Some of this crunch could be alleviated by trying to find a taker for Andrus and/or Piscotty, though moving either player might necessitate the A’s paying some of the freight (or taking a lesser contract in return). As previously mentioned, some non-tenders could get the bottom-line number down as well.

It’s always possible, too, that ownership simply bites the bullet and pays up for a franchise-record payroll. We haven’t seen that level of spending in the past, though, and this is the same A’s team that only agreed to pay its minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend after considerable public relations backlash during last summer’s pandemic — a move that only cost them about a million dollars. The A’s also had the Marlins foot the bill for all of Marte’s remaining salary. Perhaps that was in preparation for a payroll hike this winter, but that’d be a rather charitable interpretation when history and precedent tell us this is a team that is already pushing the upper levels of its comfort from a payroll standpoint.

All of this is to say: the Athletics certainly have the look of a team that is going to have to make some tough decisions this winter. They can either take payroll to new heights, look to move Andrus and/or Piscotty (which would likely mean attaching a prospect and further depleting a thin farm), or listen to offers on some names who’ve become staples on the roster.

Parting with a starter such as Manaea or Bassitt would be difficult, but both are slated to become free agents following the 2022 season. Both Chapman and Olson have two arbitration raises left, which means both are going to be owed a raise on top of that already sizable arbitration projection following the ’22 campaign. Both are on a path toward $15MM-plus salaries in 2023 — especially if Chapman is able to maintain his recent surge at the plate and return to his pre-hip surgery levels of offensive output.

Whatever route the Athletics ultimately decide to take, the organization and its fans are in for a good bit of change this winter. That could mean changes to the payroll or changes to the composition of a core group of players who’ve been quite successful since coming together a few years back. Regardless of which path they choose, it’s understandable that the A’s opted to be aggressive at this year’s deadline; with Canha, Marte and several relievers set for free agency and a huge arbitration class that could force some financially-motivated trades, this looks like the current group’s best and perhaps final chance to make a deep playoff run together.

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Cardinals Do With Alex Reyes?

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The Cardinals rotation has featured a series of guest stars and few regulars this season, with 12 different pitchers taking a turn and only 40-year-old Adam Wainwright logging enough innings to qualify. As a group, they’re 13th in the Majors in terms of starters’ innings, and 12th league-wide by measure of ERA (4.02 ERA). By measure of FIP, however, their 4.46 FIP ranks 20th in the game, and if we look ahead to 2022, there’s more than enough uncertainty to make nervous thinkers in Redbird Nation fret.

The five guys currently taking hill turns for manager Mike Shildt have an average age of 36.5, so it’s not a sprightly group. Except for Miles Mikolas, they’re all heading towards free agency at year’s end, too. In fact, of those 12 players who have started a game in 2021, six will be free agents, and John Gant has already been dealt to Minnesota. All of which is to say, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them before Opening Day 2022.

The cupboard isn’t barren, however. For starters, there will be the annual Wainwright retirement question. But with Yadier Molina coming back for one final season, isn’t it almost too perfect for Waino to do anything but follow suit?

Jack Flaherty raises the ceiling of the group, and they’ve made clear that priority one is getting their ace ready for next season, even if that means shutting it down the rest of this year. Dakota Hudson will be an interesting wildcard as he returns from Tommy John. Mikolas is also trying to get healthy, having made just three starts this season. The Cards are on the hook to pay him $17MM in each of the next two seasons, so if the 33-year-old can get healthy, he should have a rotation spot.

Not to mention, any of Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, T.J. Zeuch, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, or Angel Rondon could be given a look. There are definitely arms floating around in the organization that could ramp up to earn rotation minutes.

But there’s another familiar name that’s going to be given a chance to win a rotation spot: Alex Reyes.

Reyes turns 27-years-old tomorrow, and the former top prospect is in the midst of an establishing campaign. In what’s really been his first full season in the bigs, Reyes has a 2.50 ERA/3.90 FIP over 57 2/3 innings. His usage has certainly been consistent: of his 55 appearances, 50 of them have finished the game, a mark that leads the Majors. Simply put, he’s gone from a high-ceiling rotation question mark to an All-Star closer.

But next season, Reyes will follow Carlos Martinez in the Cardinal tradition of yo-yo-ing organizational expectations from starter to closer and back again. Let’s be clear, for this season, Reyes is the Cardinals closer and that’s the end of it. But next year is a different story, said Shildt on MLB Network Radio. Reyes will be given the opportunity to compete for a rotation spot in 2022.

Reyes has maintained a starter’s arsenal in the bullpen, throwing his fastball, slider, and sinker with almost equal usage rates. He’s been even more diverse against lefties, mixing in an occasional curveball or change-up as needed. His heater has averaged 96.5 mph, which is right around what he was averaging when he first came up as a starter. It might be, then, that he’d lose a tick or two if spread out to a starter’s workload.

The concern relates to his injury history and whether or not the Cards should risk losing another valuable bullpen arm by risking a move to the rotation. There’s more upside in the rotation, of course, but there’s something to be said for letting Reyes stay where he’s been successful. After all, if there’s a desire to get him more time on the mound, the Cards could ramp up his usage with multi-inning outings instead of making a full-scale switch to the rotation.

However many innings Reyes finishes with this season will be his most in a single year since the 2016 campaign. He threw between 100 and 110 innings from 2014 to 2016, which is pretty typical for a young arm on the rise. Whether one healthy season is enough to make Reyes ready for that kind of workload again is unclear.

As a starter, of course, the hope would be that he’d surpass even those totals. That said, it’s looking like only Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim will accumulate more than 100 innings from the Cards’ rotation this season, so there’s space to make an impact even without posting an 150-inning season.

Even tempering expectations, the Cards could expect 40-50 more innings from Reyes if he can stay healthy in the rotation. Considering his injury history, however, it’s tempting to take the money on the table now and settle in with Reyes as the closer of the next few years.

Of course, Cardinal closers haven’t been any more immune to arm injuries than their starters have, so there’s an argument to be made that whichever course they take with Reyes, there’s risk. If that’s the case, why not pursue the upside of a rotation slot?

From the beginning of the year, the Cardinals have maintained that this season would be an opportunity to inch Reyes’ workload closer to that of a starter and look ahead next season. He’s been much closer to a traditional reliever than the multi-inning firearm we might have expected, but he’s still likely to finish with something close to 70 innings.

The last consideration is timeline. Even though this will be Reyes’ first full season in the Majors, he has just two years of arbitration remaining, so it might be now or never to see if Reyes can be a starter before he hits the open market. Two years as a starter might make Reyes too pricey for the Cards, but it might also give them enough certainty to lock him up at the right rate, knowing he could be a starter moving forward.

Wainwright believes Reyes can make the jump, per Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who provides this quote from Reyes about Wainwright: “He always looks at me and tells me, ‘Hey man, you’re a starter. You know I was there, and I was able to do it. I believe you can. Just those words of encouragement, they make me feel good. And also, they give me the thought. Someone like Adam Wainwright, who has had such a long career here and has been pitching for so long, if he thinks like that of me?”

Let’s give the St. Louis brass some help and point them in the right direction.

(poll link for app users)

Where Should Alex Reyes Pitch In 2022?
Rotation 56.63% (3,068 votes)
Bullpen 43.37% (2,350 votes)
Total Votes: 5,418

Avisail Garcia Nearing The Right To Reach Free Agency This Offseason

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The Brewers are coasting to a division title, leading the NL Central by nine and a half games after taking the first two games of this week’s series with the Reds. That’s the largest divisional lead of any team in MLB. While the pitching staff deservedly gets plenty of credit as the biggest driver of Milwaukee’s success, the offense has been solid enough to hold up its end of the bargain. Avisaíl García has somewhat quietly been among the Brewers’ top performers, which looks as if it’ll set up an interesting offseason decision for teams.

García signed with Milwaukee on a two-year, $20MM guarantee over the 2019-20 offseason. The pact contained a $12MM club option ($2MM buyout) covering the 2022 campaign. That provision vests into a mutual option, however, were García to tally 1050 plate appearances over his first two seasons in Milwaukee.

Thresholds for vesting options were prorated during last year’s shortened season, with each plate appearance in 2020 counting as 2.7 plate appearances for option purposes. García’s 207 trips to the plate last year comes out to 558 plate appearances over a full season, meaning he needs to reach 492 plate appearances this season to trigger the vesting option. García’s already at 433 plate appearances, so he’ll need just 59 more over Milwaukee’s final 35 games of 2021 to reach that mark. Barring injury, he should have no problem getting there.

That would give García a lot more control over his future this winter. The 30-year-old could decline his end of the mutual option, collect the $2MM buyout, and look to top the $10MM in remaining guaranteed money on the open market. Given how well he’s played this season, he shouldn’t have trouble doing that, although precisely what kind of contract he could land is an interesting question.

García is hitting .275/.346/.506 with 24 home runs this year, translating to a 125 wRC+ that suggests he’s been 25 percentage points better than the league average hitter. That’s the second-best mark of his career, topped only by his .330/.380/.506 showing (138 wRC+) with the 2017 White Sox. That season in Chicago never looked replicable, as García benefitted from a .392 batting average on balls in play that easily led all qualified hitters. This year, García’s sporting a .304 BABIP that’s not much higher than the league average and is well below his career mark.

This time around, García’s getting to his production with career-best power. He’s already exceeded his previous personal best in home runs (20 in 2019), and his .231 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) is also a career high. García’s 21.9% strikeout rate is his second-lowest ever, nearly five percentage points below the 26.5% mark he posted in 2017. So while García has posted this level of bottom-line production before, he’s never gotten there in quite this way.

That said, there are still reasons for teams to be reluctant to buy in completely. While his strikeouts are down a bit relative to recent seasons, his actual level of swing-and-miss is not. García’s 17.1% swinging strike rate this season is a near-match for his 17.2% career mark, and it’s the fifth-highest figure in the league among the 198 players with 300+ plate appearances. That reflects one of the sport’s most aggressive approaches. García has swung at 57% of pitches he’s seen, the fourth-highest rate among that group; his 40.2% swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone is eleventh.

Rather than toning down his aggressiveness, García has gotten to his high-end production this year by making consistently strong contact. The career-best home run and slugging output is supported by the batted ball metrics. His hard contact rate (49%) and average exit velocity (90.7 MPH) are career-best marks. Statcast’s estimators — which predict the results of balls in play based on their exit velocity and launch angle — suggest García has “deserved” a .285 batting average and a .520 slugging percentage, slightly better than his actual marks in those respective categories.

That García has seemingly earned all of his success this year — as opposed to benefitting from an inordinate amount of luck on balls in play — doesn’t automatically mean he’ll be able to keep this up, though. He’s always been something of a Statcast darling, with the huge raw power that once made him a top prospect manifesting itself in high-end batted ball metrics. Despite that, his results have varied wildly throughout his career, largely because he has walked such a fine line with his approach.

García became a regular in 2015. In the seven years since, he’s had three above-average offensive seasons and four subpar campaigns. His career hasn’t followed any sort of linear trajectory; his good years in 2017, 2019 and 2021 were interrupted by disappointing intervening seasons. Even within this season, he has sandwiched a poor April and June around monstrous months of May, July and August.

He’s been similarly tough to pin down defensively. García’s certainly fast and athletic enough to make some highlight plays in the outfield (he took away a home run from Max Schrock just last night, in fact). But the advanced metrics have all pegged him right around league average in the corners over the course of his career. He has rated rather poorly in his limited looks in center.

Taken in aggregate, García looks to be one of the more fascinating players who could hit the open market in a few months. Between his youth, high-end platform season and obvious physical gifts, his representatives at Mato Sports Management could plausibly push for a four-year deal if García finishes the year at this level. But there’ll certainly be some teams scared off by his approach and career-long streakiness.

The first team that’ll be faced with a decision on García is his current club. Assuming García reaches the vesting option threshold and declines his end to hit free agency, the Brewers will have to decide whether to make him a qualifying offer. That would land somewhere in the $19MM range for 2022 if García accepts, nearly doubling the AAV of his current deal. Were he to decline and sign elsewhere, Milwaukee would pick up a compensatory draft choice to aid a farm system that Baseball America just ranked as one of the league’s ten worst. How the Brewers and other teams feel about García looks likely to get answered this winter, as he’s around fifteen games away from earning the right to explore the market.

Image credit: USA Today Sports.

2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Much has changed since our last installment of these rankings back on June 10th.  Six players signed extensions in lieu of free agency, none beyond Lance Lynn’s two-year, $38MM deal with the White Sox.  Trevor Bauer has been removed from the rankings, as he remains on paid administrative leave after being accused of sexual assault.

Four players who might have been considered for qualifying offers were traded in July: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Starling Marte.  Those players are now ineligible for qualifying offers.  Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and AJ Pollock are among those who are ineligible on account of having received one previously.  The Rockies inexplicably retained Trevor Story at the trade deadline, so he will be subject to a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, these power rankings are based on my projection of the players’ earning power.  Keep in mind that the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, though that doesn’t necessarily mean free agency will be frozen.

1.  Carlos Correa.  Prior to this year, Correa had played 110+ games in a season with a 120 wRC+ exactly once, back in 2016.  This year, Correa has avoided the regular injured list and is fourth among qualified shortstops with a 136 wRC+.  Correa did go on the COVID-19 IL in July, but he missed only a week.

Just 27 years old in December, Correa also has youth on his side, and appears headed toward a monster free agent contract.  The $340MM deals of fellow shortstops Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Lindor will surely be a target.

2.  Corey Seager.  After getting hit by a pitch and suffering a broken right hand in mid-May, Seager missed two and a half months.  Upon his return July 30th, the Dodgers had acquired another of the game’s top shortstops in Trea Turner.  Turner has switched to second base as a member of the Dodgers, but serves as a strong option at shortstop for 2022 for L.A.  Seager didn’t have much to say on the topic, but clearly his negotiating leverage took a hit with the Turner acquisition.

As for what Seager can control, he’s shown no ill effects from the broken hand.  He’s got a stellar 134 wRC+ in 87 plate appearances since returning from the injury.  Seager is only about five months older than Correa, so he too will be seeking a very long contract in excess of $300MM.

3. Kris Bryant.  19 games into his Giants career, Bryant’s solid season has continued.  The Giants have enjoyed his versatility, playing Bryant at third base as well as all three outfield positions.  He’s saying all the right things about the possibility of staying in San Francisco long-term, telling Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, “It’s definitely enticing.”  Even with a new deal for Brandon Crawford, the Giants have less than $36MM on the books for 2022, so they could certainly afford Bryant.

4. Trevor Story.  Though Story expressed confusion at the Rockies’ decision not to trade him, he hasn’t let it affect him on the field.  Since the trade deadline, Story sports a 147 wRC+ in 81 plate appearances.  29 in November, Story isn’t quite as young as Correa and Seager, but he’s still in good shape for a contract well beyond $100MM.  There’s still a case to be made for Story above Bryant, and the Rockies’ shortstop has outplayed Bryant since June.

5. Freddie Freeman.  Freeman has turned it on since June, posting a 151 wRC+ in 324 plate appearances.  32 in September, Freeman remains one of the best hitters in baseball.  The Braves wisely held onto the 2020 NL MVP despite a 12% chance at the playoffs at the trade deadline, and now the club has a 77% chance according to FanGraphs.  Braves fans continue to wonder why the club hasn’t hammered out a deal with their perennial All-Star.

6. Kevin Gausman.  Gausman has scuffled as of late, with a 5.17 ERA and 10.6% walk rate in his last seven starts.  However, he remains the prize pitcher of the free agent class, and he has seven regular season starts plus the playoffs to cement his free agent bona fides.  Dating back to 2020, Gausman has a 2.94 ERA and and 30.4% strikeout rate in 205 2/3 innings for the Giants.

7. Marcus Semien.  Semien joins this list for the first time, as he’s putting together his second MVP-caliber season within three years.  Maybe his 53-game 2020 season was the fluke, and Semien really is one of the best players in the game.  31 in September, he’s a candidate for at least a strong five-year deal in free agency.  Semien has played mostly second base this year in deference to Bo Bichette, but as a free agent he’ll be a consideration at both middle infield positions.  Semien’s 5.2 WAR is only bested among position players by the incomparable Shohei Ohtani.

8. Marcus Stroman.  Stroman, 30, ranks seventh among qualified NL starters with a 2.84 ERA in 145 1/3 innings.  He succeeds on the strength of his home run prevention and solid control and is a candidate for a five-year deal.  Stroman has shown no rust after opting out of the 2020 season.

9. Robbie Ray.  Ray, with an identical WAR to Stroman at the moment, presents an interesting contrast.  Ray’s 30.7% strikeout rate ranks second in the AL, coupled with a career-best 6.4 BB%.  It’s truly shocking to see Ray with such a low walk rate, as he had baseball’s worst walk rate – by far – last year among those with at least 50 innings.  He ranked the second-worst in that regard in 2019.  While Toronto’s $8MM deal for Ray has turned into a masterstroke, the lefty will be very difficult to value as a 30-year-old free agent.

10. Nick Castellanos.  With a 146 wRC+, Castellanos has been the seventh-best hitter in the NL this year.  He sports a solid 121 mark since returning from a microfracture in his right wrist on August 5th.  Castellanos, 30 in March, has the ability to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his contract with the Reds after the season.  He’ll almost certainly do that, and reject a qualifying offer from the Reds as well.

Honorable mentions

Max Scherzer, Carlos Rodon, Chris Taylor, Javier Baez, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte

Scherzer and Rodon in particular just missed making my top 10.  Even at age 37, Scherzer could land a three-year deal in the $100MM range.  But he could also seek something just above two years and $72MM, which would result in a new record for average annual value.  Rodon is having a season for the ages after being non-tendered by the White Sox and then returning on a $3MM deal.  However, he’s currently on the IL for shoulder fatigue, and even at age 29 he’ll be hard-pressed to find a five-year deal given his health history.  Taylor, the Dodgers’ super-utility man, has a 133 wRC+ since the start of 2020 and will likely surprise many with the size of his next contract.  Still, it figures to fall short of $100MM.

Even With No CBA, MLB Transactions Can Happen

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When baseball’s seventh collective bargaining agreement expired on December 31, 1993, there was no fanfare.  Murray Chass of the New York Times dropped it in this way, writing, “If negotiations for a new labor agreement ever begin — the old one expired uneventfully at midnight Friday — the owners will try to put salary arbitration in a time capsule and bury it deep underground, leaving it to be discovered by someone seeking the reason for the decline and fall of the business of baseball.”  The expiration of the old agreement was basically an aside in Chass’ article about the owners’ desire to eliminate salary arbitration.

With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire on December 1 this year, there’s an assumption a freeze will be placed on free agency and perhaps trades as well.  Maybe that’s because we experienced a transaction freeze quite recently, spanning March 26-June 26 of 2020.  But that was part of an agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, and it was triggered by a global pandemic that halted not just baseball, but life as we knew it.

So, the expiration of the CBA at the end of 1993 seems more instructive when trying to assess the possibility of a freeze this winter.  In January 1994, the MLB offseason continued unabated, with seeming scant consideration for the lack of a collective bargaining agreement.  The Padres agreed to a two-year, $8.5MM extension with star outfielder Tony Gwynn.  The Mets and Royals exchanged problems in a swap of Vince Coleman and Kevin McReynolds.  The Rockies inked free agent shortstop Walt Weiss to a two-year, $2.2MM deal.  All the sorts of typical headlines you’d find on MLB Trade Rumors back in January ’94, had this site existed back then.  None of these linked New York Times articles made mention of the just-expired CBA.

Of course, as Mark Armour and Dan Levitt of The Hardball Times put it, “in the summer of 1994, baseball’s owners and players were headed for the showdown to beat all showdowns.”  MLBPA leader Donald Fehr correctly surmised in July, “We believe absent an agreement the owners will impose a salary cap sometime after the season. That leaves players with two choices — take what’s on the table or try to secure a new agreement by setting a strike date.”  The owners followed by withholding the players’ $7.8MM pension payment, and the players soon followed through on their August 12 strike date.

With the 1994 World Series canceled and acrimony between the owners and players through the roof, it’d only be natural for ownership to implement a free agency freeze.  Instead, they proposed a 45-day delay, which the union did not accept, and the 1994-95 offseason proceeded.  It was far from a normal offseason, with Mets GM Joe McIlvaine saying things like, “We can’t do anything because we don’t know what the rules are.”  Players like Jim Abbott and Jack McDowell were unsure if they had reached the six years of Major League service required for free agency, due to disagreement about whether service time was accrued during the strike.  McDowell would eventually be traded to the Yankees despite that uncertainty.  Other players were thought to be potential restricted free agents as four and five-year players, as part of the owners’ plan to eliminate salary arbitration.

Paradoxically, as Chass put it on October 28, “The business of baseball went on yesterday as if the strike did not exist.”  Managers and GMs were hired and fired, sure, but clubs also continued doing big-money deals with players.  On the eve of free agency, the Yankees and George Steinbrenner signed Paul O’Neill to a four-year, $19MM deal.  A $1.2MM signing bonus included in the deal ran afoul of MLB recommendations, as they’d warned, “Clubs should keep in mind the payment of the bonus amounts to a decision by the club to help fund the continuing players strike.”

Teams continued signing free agents during the strike in the final months of 1994.  “I’m not sure our words match our actions,” remarked Dodgers GM Fred Claire in this Bob Nightengale article.  Angels GM Bill Bavasi commented, “I’m not saying teams are wrong for what they’re doing, it just has people confused. I know I can’t figure it out.”  One of the winter’s top free agents, Gregg Jefferies, inked a four-year, $20MM deal with the Phillies.  Not long after, the Mariners re-upped Jay Buhner for $15.5MM.  December 23, 1994 marked a turning point, as the owners implemented their salary cap plan.  It was only then that the union advised players not to sign free agent contracts, Chass wrote.

History shows us that if the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1 without a new deal in place, a freeze on free agency and/or trades is not fait accompli.  It’s fair to say that the environment now is less contentious than it was 27 years ago, as ownership isn’t attempting to impose a salary cap and the players aren’t planning to strike this season.  There is technically nothing stopping Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, and all the rest from signing free agent contracts despite the lack of a CBA.  While uncertainty around things like the new luxury tax thresholds and the universal designated hitter seems likely to suppress hot stove action, an actual free agency freeze won’t happen unless MLB or the players impose it.

The Angels Need More Than Just New Pitchers To Improve Their Pitching Staff

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With a 62-64 record, the Angels are facing the possibility of a sixth consecutive losing season, which would match the 1971-77 Angels for the longest stretch of sub-.500 seasons in franchise history.  Naturally, not having Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon healthy for almost the entire year is the biggest reason for the Angels’ woes in 2021, though the club has once again failed to receive consistent results from its pitching staff.  Entering Monday’s play, Anaheim pitchers have combined for a 4.70 ERA, tied for the seventh-highest mark of any team in baseball.

Both the rotation and bullpen are pretty equally culpable for these struggles, yet in looking at the list of names on the roster, there are actually quite a few hurlers enjoying solid-to-great seasons.  Shohei Ohtani and Raisel Iglesias have been excellent, while the likes of Patrick Sandoval, Alex Cobb, Mike Mayers, Jose Suarez, and Steve Cishek have all delivered quality numbers.  Several pitchers have certainly delivered subpar performances to balance out the better arms, and yet it isn’t as if the Angels are bereft of pitching talent — shouldn’t they be better than this?

The real problem goes beyond just the bottom-line number of that 4.70 ERA.  While it’s hard to argue against Los Angeles adding a significant pitching upgrade or two this winter, the team’s issue isn’t just with pitching, but with run prevention.  The Angels’ pitching may not be very good, yet there’s no argument that the defense has been anything but bad in 2021.

The Halos rank 29th of 30 teams in UZR/150 (-7.3), and 27th in both Defensive Runs Saved (-29) and Outs Above Average (-6).  The result is that Angels pitchers have a collective .302 BABIP, the fifth-highest mark of any team in baseball.  Going beyond the team ERA category, Angels pitchers actually crack the top half of the league in SIERA, with a 4.14 mark that ranks 15th of 30 teams.  Anaheim has one of the bigger gaps of any team between their pitching staff’s wOBA (.320) and xwOBA (.309), and the pitching corps is also doing a solid job of limiting hard contact.

Since finding good defense is generally cheaper than finding good pitching on the open market, perhaps the easiest way for the Angels to keep runs off the board in 2022 is to tighten up the glovework.  There are some challenges on this front considering that the Halos seemingly have much of their 2022 position player mix already in place, and Ohtani has the designated hitter spot on lockdown.  Looking at the settled positions in the infield, it’s safe to assume that the Angels will line up with Max Stassi getting at least half of the playing time at catcher, Jared Walsh at first base, David Fletcher at second base, and Rendon back and hopefully healthy at third base.

Of this group, only Stassi has been a clear defensive standout in 2021, and he has quietly been one of the game’s better-fielding catchers for a few years now, both in terms of his work behind the plate and pitch-framing.  Since Kurt Suzuki’s defensive numbers have never been particularly impressive, the Halos could let Suzuki walk in free agency and add more of a defense-first backup behind Stassi, whose offensive breakout has likely earned him the majority of the catching duties next year.

Walsh is nothing special as a first baseman, but he is a better fit at first base than as an outfielder, and Walsh’s bat has definitely earned a spot in the lineup.  Depending on which defensive metric you prefer, Fletcher has either been quite good (+4 DRS), average (0 Outs Above Average) or subpar (-5.3 UZR/150) over his 910 2/3 innings at the keystone this season.  Considering Rendon has been a strong defender for much of his career, it is quite possible that his below-average numbers this year were due to his injuries, and he’ll return to normal in 2022.

This leaves shortstop as the glaring hole, which is ironic since the acquisition of Jose Iglesias last offseason was supposed to be the move that shored up the defense.  Instead, Iglesias’ usually strong glovework dropped off considerably, as he has -17 DRS and a -8.9 UZR/150 over 935 2/3 innings at shortstop.  OAA rates Iglesias as exactly average, yet even that represents a decline, and certainly less what the Angels expected when they obtained Iglesias from the Orioles.

Since the 2021-22 free agent class is loaded with star shortstops, the obvious move for the Angels would be to make another big-ticket position player signing and bring one of those headline names (i.e. Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Chris Taylor, Javier Baez) to Anaheim.  However, with Trout and Rendon locked up to long-term deals, Justin Upton owed $28MM in 2022, and future funds required for a potential Ohtani extension, the Angels might not have the budget to add yet another big contract to the lineup.

Of the major names, Baez is perhaps the most intriguing as a potential fit.  Baez struggled at the plate in 2020 and has been roughly a league-average hitter this year, providing a less-than-stellar platform as he enters free agency.  It isn’t out the question that Baez accepts a one-year pillow contract in order to rebuild his value in 2022, so he can then re-enter a free agent market that isn’t so heavy in prominent shortstops.  Baez and Angels manager Joe Maddon know each other well from their days with the Cubs, so Baez could see Anaheim as a nice spot to rediscover his hitting stroke.  It is worth noting that both OAA and UZR/150 indicate a defensive decline for Baez from 2020 to 2021, though at the right price on a one-year contract, Baez could be a risk the Angels are willing to take.

If not a bigger name, L.A. could attempt to acquire another lower-cost, glove-first option as they did with Iglesias last winter.  (Even a reunion with Iglesias himself might not be out of the question, though likely as a part-time option at most.)  Signing a player like Jonathan Villar could add to the Angels’ overall bench versatility, as the team could then mix and match Fletcher and Villar at either middle infield position.

While Anaheim fans may balk at the idea of passing on all these major shortstops, the Angels could still benefit from the 2021-22 shortstop class in a more indirect manner.  For instance, if a team that already has a quality shortstop decides to make a big splash by adding a new signing, the Angels could step in as a trade partner to acquire the former incumbent.

Turning to the outfield, the Angels will have Trout, Upton, and highly-touted youngsters Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh all in line for regular time, with Taylor Ward providing some additional depth.  From a pure glovework perspective, the ideal everyday alignment would have Marsh up the middle in center field, with Trout moving to a corner outfield slot and only getting occasional action in center field (or maybe a bigger role in his normal center field job if Marsh isn’t quite ready for prime time).

According to both DRS and UZR/150, Trout has been a below-average fielder in four of the last five seasons.  A shift to a corner role could theoretically help preserve Trout’s legs in the wake of the calf injury that has cost him much of the 2021 season, and since Marsh already looks like he can handle center field, a position change might be the wisest move to both upgrade the Angels’ defense and help keep Trout on the field.  The easiest timeshare would be to sit the left-handed hitting Marsh against opposing southpaws, giving the Angels an Upton/Trout/Adell outfield alignment whenever the Angels face a lefty starter.

After some very shaky outings as a rookie in 2020, Adell has at least looked passable in the small sample size of his outfield work this year.  Upton has been roughly a replacement-level player for the last three seasons and it has been years since he has been even a decent left fielder.  Since his big salary will be hard to move in a deal (and Upton has no-trade protection), he still has a role to play if either Adell or Marsh can’t get on track at the plate against big league pitching.

A defense-first backup would make a lot of sense for the Angels, so the team could look to bring back a familiar face in Juan Lagares.  Los Angeles looked to Dexter Fowler as another veteran regular for the outfield before a torn ACL ended his season in early April, and if Fowler’s recovery is coming along, the Angels could also give him another look on an inexpensive contract.

(To address the inevitable Ohtani question, Maddon is on record as saying that Ohtani could easily handle regular outfield work if he devoted himself to the position.  As much as we’ve learned to not count Ohtani out for anything, it doesn’t seem likely that the Angels would increase Ohtani’s workload and injury risk by making him anything more than a late-game fill-in outfielder.)

How do you improve a defense with mostly the same players?  Installing a new shortstop, a new part-time/backup catcher, getting Rendon and Trout back, and then changing the alignment of the outfield might be all it takes to turn the Angels’ defense from lousy into at least average.  With even decent team defense, there is a very strong chance that the Halos would likely not only have a winning record, but possibly still a chance at a playoff spot.

Between a lack of consistent pitching and the injury concerns that seem to befall the Halos rotation almost every season, the club should be taking a much broader approach to the problem of how to keep opposing lineups in check.  In fairness to GM Perry Minasian, it seems like he tried to do just this by landing Iglesias, but more is needed in the wake of what is looking like another non-playoff year.  The Angels haven’t signed a free agent starter to a multi-year contract in almost nine years (since Joe Blanton in December 2012), so if the team plans to continue shopping for only second- or third-tier starters, Anaheim will need a much better defensive effort to compensate.

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