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MLBTR Poll: Josh Hader’s Market

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There’s no doubt Josh Hader is going to land the largest contract of any reliever this offseason. The more interesting question is whether he’ll establish a new high-water mark for bullpen arms.

Edwin Díaz became the first reliever to cross the nine-figure threshold. The right-hander re-signed with the Mets on a five-year, $102MM pact shortly before free agency opened during the 2022-23 offseason. (Deferrals reduced the contract’s valuation for luxury tax purposes to a little above $93MM.) That set a clear target for Hader’s camp.

Andy Martino of SNY wrote last week that teams engaged with Hader believe he’s shooting for that record. It makes for an interesting comparison between the two pitchers. Díaz was a year younger than Hader is now. The former was going into his age-29 season, while the latter turns 30 not long after Opening Day.

Hader has been a little better from a run prevention perspective. In 388 2/3 career innings, he owns a 2.50 ERA. Díaz had a 2.93 mark over 399 1/3 frames entering free agency (which is still the case because he missed the 2023 season after injuring his knee celebrating a triumph in the World Baseball Classic). While Hader showed a willingness to work multiple innings early in his career, he made clear that he preferred to occupy a single-inning role in recent seasons. Their overall body of work is about the same, while their platform-year ERAs are quite similar.

Díaz allowed a 1.31 ERA over 62 innings in 2022; Hader surrendered 1.28 earned runs per nine through 56 1/3 frames a year ago. There’s very little difference between those two numbers, although Hader probably has the more impressive figure when placed in league context. The league average ERA for relievers jumped from 3.86 to 4.17, likely reflecting both a somewhat livelier ball and rule changes implemented over the 2022-23 offseason (i.e. shift limitations) designed to tilt the game more toward offense.

Of course, there’s far more to a pitcher’s performance than keeping runs off the board. That’s particularly true for relievers, whose numbers can be skewed greatly by one poor outing (or simply a subpar defense). Díaz is probably more dominant on a pitch-for-pitch basis. While Hader has the slight edge in career strikeout rate, his approximate 37% mark in each of the past two seasons are his lowest since his rookie year. That’s still an elite number, to be clear, but it’s well shy of the laughable 50.2% of hitters whom Díaz fanned in 2022.

Opponents swung through nearly a quarter of all pitches that Díaz threw in his platform year. Hader’s 15.6% swinging strike percentage from last season was “merely” excellent, the 18th-highest rate in MLB among pitchers with 50+ innings. Díaz’s mark not only led the majors in 2022, it was three percentage points clear of second-place Andrés Muñoz. Díaz also throws a bit harder. He averaged north of 99 MPH on his fastball and nearly 91 MPH on his slider. Hader’s 96 MPH fastball and 86 MPH slider are more conventional velocity figures, although they’ve each proven almost unhittable.

The Padres made Hader a qualifying offer. New York re-signed Díaz before the deadline to make the QO but surely would have done so if they hadn’t agreed to a long-term deal. The Mets knew that re-signing Díaz was waiving their ability to collect the draft compensation they’d have received if he departed, which was presumably factored into the contract price.

Unlike the Mets, San Diego seems content to take the compensatory pick. The Padres have cut payroll and suggested they’re not going to spend at the top of the market. There haven’t been many suitors to emerge publicly. The Orioles were linked to Hader early in the offseason. They signed Craig Kimbrel to a $13MM deal and now profile as a long shot for a top-of-the-market relief splash. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Rangers have been mentioned as speculative fits but without firm ties. Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested this morning the Mets weren’t likely to be in on Hader.

Hader is one of the three to five best relievers in the sport. His camp has surely received calls that have gone unreported. Yet it’s a little surprising there haven’t been more public revelations on his market.

How will things play out? Will Hader top Díaz and where will he end up?

 

 

Possible Left-Handed Power Targets For Nationals

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The Nationals haven’t made many notable acquisitions this offseason. They signed middle reliever Dylan Floro and former top prospect Nick Senzel to affordable one-year pacts and plucked infielder Nasim Nuñez from the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft. It’s not all that surprising that a still-rebuilding Washington team coming off a 71-91 showing hasn’t been aggressive, but GM Mike Rizzo had suggested at the Winter Meetings the team was open to a multi-year free agent pickup “in the right situation” (link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com).

With all of $4.25MM in free agent spending committed to Floro and Senzel, there should still be financial room at Rizzo’s disposal. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll hand out any kind of significant deal, particularly with a lack of great options in the middle tiers of free agency. Yet it’d be a surprise if the Nationals were finished with their offseason activity. One area where some kind of addition seems likely: a left-handed bat.

Both the Talk Nats blog and MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato suggested in late December that Washington was looking to bring in left-handed power. The Nats’ best lefty or switch-hitting bats — CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, Luis García and Jake Alu — all have middling pop. Only the Guardians had a lower ISO (slugging minus batting average) against right-handed pitching in 2023. Acquiring a lefty power source makes plenty of sense.

It’s hard to see Washington spending at the level it’d take to land Cody Bellinger. Even though he’s young enough to be a veteran cornerstone for a team that could more realistically seek to compete by 2025, the Nationals have a pair of top center field prospects in James Wood and Dylan Crews. They’re also still faced with the MASN rights uncertainty and on the hook for significant money to Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer’s deferrals in the short term. It’s probably not the right time for a top-of-the-market splash.

We’ll look a few tiers down. Where might that search lead Rizzo and company?

Free Agency

  • Brandon Belt: Belt, even going into his age-36 season, should command the loftiest guarantee of the players in this group. He’s coming off a very strong offensive showing for the Blue Jays. He hit 19 homers and walked more than 15% of the time he stepped to the plate, leading to a .254/.369/.490 line through 404 plate appearances. Favorable matchups played a role in that strong rate production; Toronto limited him to 39 PA’s against left-handed pitching. Washington could deploy him similarly at designated hitter and/or first base, where only Joey Meneses (coming off a league average offensive showing) stands in the way.
  • Joc Pederson: The Blue Jays are the only club publicly tied to Pederson this winter. He’s coming off a middling season in which he hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers through 425 plate appearances for the Giants. That’s not huge power production at first glance, but Pederson has five 20+ homer seasons on his résumé (four with at least 25 longballs). He made hard contact — an exit velocity of at least 95 MPH — on more than half his batted balls last season, a top 15 rate in the majors. Pederson is a limited player. He’s best served as a DH and is mostly limited to facing right-handed pitching. He still has life in the bat, though, even if last year’s results were underwhelming.
  • Eddie Rosario: There hasn’t been any public chatter on Rosario since the Braves declined a $9MM option at the start of the offseason. He should command a one-year deal at a salary that’s not too far below that rate. Rosario is coming off a reasonably effective year. He hit 21 homers with a .255/.305/.450 line in 516 trips to the plate. That was the fourth time in his career that he surpassed 20 longballs. Rosario is mostly limited to left field but rated reasonably well with the glove last year. His performance varies wildly within seasons, but he tends to produce roughly league average numbers by the end.
  • Joey Gallo: Gallo hit 21 homers in just 332 plate appearances a season ago. The flaw in his game, huge swing-and-miss rates, has only magnified in recent seasons. Gallo hasn’t hit above the Mendoza line since 2019. He’s hitting .168 with a .290 on-base percentage in 742 plate appearances over the last two campaigns. There are a lot of uncompetitive at-bats. Few players fit the profile of a “left-handed power bat” quite like Gallo, though.

Trade Possibilities

It’s tougher to identify great fits on the trade market in the absence of many clear rebuilding teams. The Nationals could theoretically take a bigger swing at a player with an extended control window (e.g. Alec Burleson, Jesús Sánchez). That’s not an easy task to pull off, particularly since Washington is probably reluctant to part with significant prospect talent. There are a few veteran bats who’d make some sense as speculative trade candidates for a lesser return.

  • Josh Bell: Bell had a productive stint over his year and a half in Washington from 2021-22. He hit .278/.363/.483 in just over 1000 plate appearances before being included in the Juan Soto trade. Bell has changed uniforms twice more since that deadline blockbuster, signing with the Guardians before being flipped to the Marlins last summer. The switch-hitting first baseman struggled in Cleveland (.233/.318/.383) but generally turned things around in South Florida (.270/.338/.480). That reasonably strong finish wasn’t enough for Bell to forego a $16.5MM player option for the upcoming season. It stands to reason the Fish would be happy to get out from under the bulk of that deal if the Nationals were interested in a reunion.
  • Seth Brown: A’s GM David Forst indicated at the beginning of the offseason that he didn’t expect to trade Brown. That’s presumably more about Oakland feeling that other teams won’t meet their ask than an indication they wouldn’t consider offers on a 31-year-old platoon player. Brown is a career .237/.305/.471 hitter against right-handed pitching. He can play first base or the corner outfield and is under arbitration control for three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts him for a $2.4MM salary.
  • Mike Yastrzemski: Yastrzemski is projected for a $7.3MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration season. He hit 15 homers in 381 plate appearances a year ago, running a .233/.330/.445 line overall. The Giants aren’t likely to urgently shop Yastrzemski, but the singing of Jung Hoo Lee pushes him from center field to the corner opposite Michael Conforto. Trading Mitch Haniger paved the way for a Lee, Conforto, Yastrzemski outfield supplemented by righty-hitting Austin Slater, but the Giants also have Luis Matos, Wade Meckler and Heliot Ramos as options on the grass.

Minor League Deal Candidates

Each of these players has turned in above-average offense from the left side in their careers. None hit free agency under great circumstances. Choi had an injury-plagued 2023 campaign that kept him to 39 games without much production. The other four players were either non-tendered or elected free agency after an outright.

Meadows has missed most of the past two seasons attending to anxiety; it is unclear if he’ll be in position to return next year. Ford and Vogelbach are largely limited to DH, while Walsh hasn’t been the same since he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome in 2022. None of these players are likely to be Washington’s top acquisition, but they’d be viable depth targets if the Nats wanted a second lefty bat on a minor league or low-cost MLB pact.

Free Agent Faceoff: Aroldis Chapman/Matt Moore

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The market for pure relievers has been deathly slow this winter. Since free agency opened in early November, just four full-time relievers have signed multi-year contracts this winter: right-handers Chris Stratton and Emilio Pagan signed on with the Royals and Reds, respectively, while both NPB lefty Yuki Matsui and KBO righty Woo Suk Go recently agreed to deals with the Padres. While the likes of Nick Martinez, Reynaldo Lopez, and (most recently) Sean Manaea have all signed multi-year pacts this offseason as well, each of that trio has started games in the past and figures to have at least a chance of earning a rotation spot entering Spring Training.

There’s little question who the top dog available in free agency this offseason is in terms of relief pitching. Southpaw Josh Hader has been in the conversation for best reliever in baseball practically since his debut back in 2017 and is coming off an incredible platform season where he posted a 1.28 ERA in 56 1/3 innings of work while collecting 33 saves and striking out 36.8% of batters faced. Behind him, the best available bullpen arms largely appear to be right-handed. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently discussed the pros and cons of two of the winter’s best righty relievers, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks. What of the left-handed relief market? With Hader in a league of his own, the next tier of southpaw free agent arms features two dominant back-end veterans in their mid-thirties: Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore.

The two could hardly have had more different career paths leading them to this point. Chapman may be the most well-recognized reliever in the game today, as the veteran fireballer made seven All Star appearances between 2012 and 2021, pitching to an incredible 2.25 ERA and 2.13 FIP in 540 1/3 innings of work and racking up 305 saves across that ten-year span while pitching for the Reds, Yankees, and Cubs. During that time, Chapman’s fastball routinely topped 100 mph and averaged 99.5 mph while maxing out at over 105 mph. That velocity made him one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game, particularly at the time of his debut back in 2010.

Over time, however, signs of decline became evident in Chapman’s profile. After pitching just 11 2/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season, 2021 saw the flamethrower post a career-worst 3.99 FIP thanks to a 15.6% strikeout rate that was his highest since his first full season in the majors back in 2011. While Chapman managed to pitch through those red flags to rack up 30 saves and post a solid 3.36 ERA, the wheels came off more noticeably for the left-hander during 2022, his final season in New York. Chapman posted the worst average fastball velocity of his career that season, averaging “just” 97.5 mph on his heater. His already elevated walk rate also continued to climb, reaching 17.5%. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate plummeted to just 26.9%, by far the worst of his career. Chapman’s 4.46 ERA and 4.57 FIP were also career worsts, and his career with the Yankees ended inauspiciously as he was left off the club’s ALDS roster after skipping a team workout.

Chapman’s struggles left him to sign a modest one-year deal with the Royals in free agency last winter in hopes of recouping his value. The lefty did well for himself in that regard as his average fastball velocity climbed back up to 99.1 mph, the highest it had been since his age-29 season back in 2017. With the improved velocity came renewed success, as Chapman struck out a whopping 41.4% of batters faced while posting a 3.09 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 58 1/3 innings of work for the Royals and Rangers. While Chapman’s 14.5% walk rate will surely raise some eyebrows, if he can continue striking out batters at elite rates he should be able to pitch around the additional traffic on the basepaths.

Moore, by contrast, was once considered the very top prospect in all of baseball and in the early years of his career with the Rays appeared to be a burgeoning star. Tommy John surgery in 2014 got in the way of Moore’s ascension, however, and the left-hander was never the same pitcher upon returning to the mound. He scuffled as a fringe rotation option for years, bouncing between the Rays, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers before heading to Japan during the 2020 campaign to try and revitalize his career overseas. Moore excelled with a 2.65 ERA in 85 innings for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukoka Softbanks Hawks in 2020 and returned stateside as a swingman for the Phillies in 2021, though he had another difficult season as he struggled to a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work.

That rough performance lead Moore to take a minor league contract with the Rangers, but upon converting to relief full time the lefty quickly made his way not only into the big league bullpen, but into a late-inning role with the club. In 74 innings of work across 63 relief appearances for the Rangers in 2022, Moore dominated to a 1.95 ERA with a 2.98 FIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate paired with a strong 43.9% groundball rate. Despite that dominance, Moore’s long track record of struggles prior to the 2022 campaign, his elevated 12.5% walk rate, and a minuscule 4.2% home run rate on fly balls likely caused concern among potential suitors in free agency, leaving him to settle for a one-year deal with the Angels last winter.

Fortunately for Moore, his performance in 2023 largely backed up his newfound role as a quality back-end relief arm and answered those questions regarding sustainability. Though time on the injured list limited the left-hander to just 50 appearances last year, he posted a strong 2.56 ERA and saw his strikeout rate tick up to 27.5% while his walk rate plummeted to a greatly-improved 6.9%. He found that success in spite of the fact that his groundball rate dipped to a career-low 35% and a whopping 11.3% of his fly balls left the yard for home runs last season.

Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Moore found this success while being shuffled between three teams late in the season. The Angels placed him on waivers in August, where he was claimed by the Guardians, who then promptly waived him for a second time before he was claimed by the Marlins to contribute to their playoff push in the season’s final week. Taken together, Moore sports a sterling 2.20 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings dating back to the start of the 2022 season. That ERA is good for ninth among all relievers with at least 100 innings of work across the past two seasons, ahead of elite closers like David Bednar and Emmanuel Clase and just behind the likes of Jhoan Duran and Brusdar Graterol.

Relievers always come with risk involved, and that’s especially so for this pair of southpaws. Both players have had significant ups and downs over the past three seasons, and while each figures to fill the same late-inning bullpen role they vastly different pros and cons. Chapman has the name recognition and track record as a longtime closer, and is still capable of elite velocity as shown by his dominant performance in 2023. With that being said, 2022 showed just how far things can go off the rails for the lefty if he loses even a tick or two of that elite velocity, and his 15.6% walk rate since the start of the 2021 campaign seems unlikely to go down much at this stage of his career.

By contrast, Moore is anything but a known commodity given his rollercoaster history as a former top prospect and longtime journeyman starting pitcher who has only recently broken out as a dominant reliever. He lacks the premium velocity Chapman offers, having average 94 mph on his heater in each of the past two seasons, but has been among the very best relievers in baseball the past two seasons and has shown the ability to improve around the margins of his profile by cutting his walk rate nearly in half this past season. Also of note is that Moore, who will celebrate his 35th birthday in June, is nearly a year and a half younger than Chapman, who turns 36 next month.

Which southpaw would MLBTR readers rather have on their team in 2024? Do you feel Chapman’s lengthy track record and high-end velocity is too valuable to pass up, or do you prefer Moore’s recent dominance and stronger command?

Free Agent Profile: Mike Clevinger

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The market for free agent starters has been fairly busy this offseason, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sonny Gray, and Aaron Nola having come off the board at the top of the market alongside a host of mid-level arms including Kenta Maeda and Seth Lugo. Even the back end of the market has been fairly active, with bounceback arms like Luis Severino and Lance Lynn finding new homes on one-year deals earlier this winter. For all the buzz surrounding the free agent pitching market, however, one name stands out as having not come up in the rumor mill at all to this point in the winter: veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger.

It’s something of a surprise that Clevinger’s market has involved such little fanfare, as the righty was one of the most dominant young arms in the league with Cleveland in the late 2010’s. From 2017 to 2019, Clevinger dominated across 447 2/3 innings of work with a 2.96 ERA that was a whopping 52% better than league average by measure of ERA+. The righty struck out 28.3% of batters faced against a 9.1% walk rate, good for a FIP of 3.32. Among pitchers with at least 400 innings of work across those three seasons, Clevinger’s ERA ranked sixth in the majors behind a quintet of multi-time Cy Young award winners: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber.

Dominant as Clevinger was, the right-hander was shipped from Cleveland to San Diego at the 2020 trade deadline and wound up requiring Tommy John surgery just four starts into his tenure with the Padres. Rehab wiped out his entire 2021 season, and the right-hander returned in 2022 to post the worst season of his career. In 117 1/3 innings of work, Clevinger struggled to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.98 FIP, the first time he posted a ERA+ below the league average since becoming a full-time starter in 2017.

Clevinger’s peripherals also suffered considerably. Though the right-hander entered the 2022 campaign with a strong 27.3% career strikeout rate, he punched out just 18.8% of batters faced in his first year back from surgery. His batted ball metrics suffered as well: while he had generated grounders at a 40.3% clip during his peak years in Cleveland, that figure fell to just 35.2% with the Padres in 2022. The difficult season led Clevinger to sign a one-year, $12MM deal with the White Sox last offseason, and the righty made good on that deal by turning in a solid performance last year.

Clevinger’s time on the south side of Chicago got off to a rough start as he struggled to a 4.84 ERA across his first seven starts, but the right-hander settled in from there to bring his ERA down to just 3.88 by the time a wrist injury sent him to the injured list in mid-June. That success carried over when Clevinger returned to action six weeks later, and he entered the month of September with a sterling 2.45 ERA and solid 3.88 FIP in his last eleven starts. Clevinger mostly cruised through the month of September until his final appearance of the year, where he was torched for six runs in just 1 2/3 innings of work to leave him with a 3.77 ERA and 4.28 FIP on the season.

While Clevinger flashed his previous, dominant form at various points throughout the 2023 season and saw his average fastball velocity tick back up to 94.6, higher than his career average, it seems unlikely the veteran righty would be able to fully rediscover his previous form over a full season. After all, Clevinger’s groundball rate was at a career-worst 30.9% last season and while his strikeout rate did improve over 2022 it still sat at just 20%. That’s a far cry from the 33.9% clip Clevinger punched out batters at back in 2019 and pretty significantly below league average this past year.

Even so, the right-hander figures to be a quality, innings eating veteran who a club can comfortably place in the middle-to-back of their rotation in 2024. While Clevinger’s strikeout and groundball rates left something to be desired last year, he flashed strong command with a walk rate of just 7.3% while maintaining hard-hit and barrel rates significantly better than league average. Combined with his rediscovered velocity, it’s easy to see how the veteran right-hander could be an above average big league starter next season. If he can live up to that billing, the right-hander might prove to be a steal for the club that ultimately signs him this winter.

MLBTR projected Clevinger for a two-year, $26MM deal on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed 30th. That $13MM AAV would be something of a steal for a solid, mid-rotation arm this offseason given the pricey one-year deals arms like Frankie Montas ($16MM), and Jack Flaherty ($14MM) signed on the heels of seasons marred by injury and under performance. Meanwhile, the likes of Lucas Giolito ($19.3MM AAV) and Michael Wacha ($16MM AAV) managed to surpass those marks on multi-year guarantees. While Giolito is three-and-a-half years younger than Clevinger and Wacha has a stronger recent track record, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Clevinger posts comparable numbers to either pitcher in 2024 at a lower price point.

The veteran righty has been something of a ghost on the rumor mill this offseason, with few if any clubs directly connected to the right-hander. With that being said, plenty of teams are known to be in the market for starting pitching this winter including the Red Sox, Orioles, Angels, Giants, Yankees, and Cubs. Any of those teams could benefit from adding Clevinger to their rotation mix, and he could prove to be an attractive backup option for teams that either can’t afford or fall short in the bidding for top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, or who are unwilling to meet the asking prices for potential trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber.

The Braves’ Fifth Starter Possibilities

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There’s no question about the top four in the Braves rotation. Atlanta acquired Chris Sale over the weekend to join Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton in a high-upside staff, then promptly extended Sale. The Braves don’t have a set choice for the #5 spot to open the year. It seems that’ll be up for grabs in camp.

On an appearance on The Bill Shanks Show on Tuesday, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the front office was willing to consider a number of options for the last rotation job. “It’ll be open competition for the fifth spot,” he told Shanks. The front office leader name-checked five candidates for the position (albeit without saying it was an exhaustive list): Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Atlanta had a camp battle for the final two spots last spring. They surprisingly tabbed Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, neither of whom had made their MLB debuts, for season-opening roles after impressive Spring Training performances. While neither rookie fared all that well, the Braves are open to again turning to a young arm if they outperform others in the spring.

“We’re going to take the best players,” Anthopoulos said. “We never assume the division. You can lose it or win it by a game, as we saw in 2022 (when) it came down the wire. … We’re going to break with the best team. Like anything, we’ll try to maintain our depth. If there’s a lot of ties or it’s close, we’ll keep our depth. But we’re hopeful these guys are all good in Spring Training and make it hard on us.”

Perhaps an opportunity will arise for the Braves to add a surefire #5 starter within the next couple months. That doesn’t appear to be an organizational priority, however. There seems a good chance Atlanta is content with a camp battle between the group that Anthopoulos referenced. They’ll likely all play roles at some point as injuries necessitate, but we’ll run through the top candidates for the Opening Day job as things currently stand.

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Elder surprisingly emerged as a rotation mainstay for Atlanta a year ago. Despite briefly starting the season with Triple-A Gwinnett, he wound up taking the ball 31 times and tossing 174 2/3 innings — second on the team behind Strider. Elder had a great first half, pitching to a 2.97 ERA en route to an All-Star selection. He didn’t find that same level of success down the stretch, as he surrendered a 5.11 mark in the second half. The Phillies tagged him for six runs in 2 2/3 frames during his only postseason start.

At year’s end, Elder still carried a solid 3.81 ERA. Despite the rough finish, he was a valuable part of Brian Snitker’s pitching staff. It’s nevertheless questionable whether he can replicate a sub-4.00 ERA without missing many bats. Elder had a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% swinging strike percentage a season ago. He’s a ground-ball specialist whose sinker was below the 90 MPH mark on average. It’s a very different profile from the high-octane strikeout stuff of the top four in the rotation (and that of some of his competitors for the #5 job). Anthopoulos pointed out that Elder still has a full slate of minor league options and could start the year in Gwinnett if he doesn’t break camp with the MLB team, as Ian Anderson did in 2023.

López, on the other hand, is certainly going to be on the major league roster. The question is whether that’s in the rotation or the bullpen. Atlanta signed the 30-year-old righty to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal at the start of the offseason. While the price tag wasn’t a surprise, the Braves’ subsequent announcement they might stretch López out as a starter was unexpected.

Teams have used López almost exclusively in relief for the past two and a half seasons. He hasn’t had a full year as a starter since 2019, when he was tagged for a 5.38 ERA in 184 innings for the White Sox. López has shown the durability to hold up from the rotation, topping 180 frames in consecutive seasons for Chicago in 2018-19. The former top prospect has been much more effective when working in shorter stints, though. He owns a 3.02 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout percentage in 131 1/3 innings between a trio of clubs since the start of 2022.

Smith-Shawver, who turned 21 in November, was among the youngest players to reach the majors last season. He got to the big leagues within two years of being drafted out of high school. Smith-Shawver didn’t hold a long-term rotation role, appearing in six games (five starts). He posted a 4.26 ERA through 25 1/3 innings despite middling strikeout and walk rates and seven home runs.

The 6’3″ hurler had a more impressive statistical track record in the minors. He combined for 62 frames between the top three minor league levels, allowing a 2.76 ERA while striking out 31.3% of opponents. Smith-Shawver walked over 13% of batters faced in the minors, so he’s clearly not a finished product. That’s to be expected given his youth. The Braves were impressed enough with the huge swing-and-miss potential he’d shown to carry him in relief on their playoff roster last October. He has two options remaining.

Ynoa, still just 25, pitched at the MLB level from 2019-22. He turned in mid-rotation results (4.05 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk percentage) in 2021, although he was limited to 91 innings thanks to a self-inflicted hand fracture when he punched a dugout wall. He dropped into a depth role by the ’22 season, allowing a 5.68 ERA over 18 Triple-A appearances. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of last year. He is expected to be a full participant in Spring Training. The Braves tendered him an arbitration contract but could send him to the minors for another season, as he has one option remaining.

The only player in this quintet who has yet to reach the majors, Waldrep is on a fast track to MLB. Atlanta’s first-round pick a year ago, the hard-throwing righty went from the College World Series in June to Triple-A by September. The Florida product had a brilliant 1.53 ERA while fanning a third of batters faced in his first eight professional starts at four levels (including one appearance in Gwinnett).

Atlanta is among the most aggressive teams in promoting its top prospects. As a college draftee, Waldrep is around nine months older than Smith-Shawver is. He has far less professional experience and isn’t on the 40-man roster, but he was drafted out of a strong program in college baseball’s top conference. Anthopoulos conceded it’d be ideal for both Waldrep and Smith-Shawver to have more developmental time but rhetorically asked, “if they come in and they are so much better than anybody else, how we do deny them?“

This Date In Transaction History: Luis Robert Extension

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Today marks the four-year anniversary of one of the White Sox’s better moves in recent memory. On January 2, 2020, the Sox finalized a $50MM extension with Luis Robert. The right-handed hitting center fielder had yet to make his MLB debut but was a consensus top prospect.

As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the deal was then the largest ever signed by a player with no big league reps. It marked the second straight year in which the Sox inked a record-setting contract with a player before his debut. Their 2019 deal with Eloy Jiménez, which guaranteed him $43MM over six seasons, hasn’t necessarily gone as the club envisioned. They had far more success with the Robert extension.

The contract ensured Robert would open the 2020 campaign as Chicago’s center fielder. While that might have happened regardless on the heels of a monster showing in the high minors, there was a possibility of the Sox keeping Robert in Triple-A long enough to secure an additional year of club control. (Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, there were fewer incentives for teams to carry top prospects on the Opening Day roster.) The extension bought out their six-year control window while tacking on two team options to add two high-upside seasons for the organization.

Robert had a solid but not overwhelming debut showing, hitting .233/.302/.436 as a 22-year-old during the shortened season. A hip flexor strain interrupted what looked like a breakout showing in his second season. Robert was out of action between May 4 and August 9. Around the injury, he put up spectacular numbers. He raked at a .338/.378/.567 clip with above-average defense in center field. His power numbers took a step back in 2022 but rebounded last season, when Robert turned in the best performance of his career.

The 26-year-old finished ninth in the majors with 38 home runs. He hit .264/.315/.542 overall, more than compensating for  a middling strikeout and walk profile with huge power. Robert also put his excellent athleticism to use on the bases and defensively. He went 20-24 in stolen base attempts and received strong grades for his 1207 2/3 innings in center field. Defensive Runs Saved pegged Robert as six runs better than average, while Statcast rated him 11 runs above par.

In what was a disastrous season for the Sox overall, Robert was a rare bright spot. He earned his first All-Star nod and a Silver Slugger at year’s end. He finished 12th in AL MVP balloting, the first time in his career he received down-ballot recognition for that award.

That stellar showing led to a bit of chatter about Robert’s potential availability in trade. White Sox general manager Chris Getz stoked those flames early in the offseason when he said there were no untouchables on a top-heavy roster. While Getz has never entirely walked those comments back, he clarified at the Winter Meetings the Sox would set such a high bar in talks that he had “a tough time seeing him wearing another uniform next year.”

Even as the White Sox entertain trade possibilities on the likes of Jiménez and starter Dylan Cease, there’s reason for Chicago to more or less take Robert off the table. He’s the team’s best player, for one. Yet a trade would have been easier to envision if not for the extension. Robert has four years of MLB service. If Chicago hadn’t signed him to an extension (or kept him in the minors to delay his service clock in 2020), he’d be two years from the open market.

Instead, they have him under control for another four seasons. Robert will make $12.5MM next season and $15MM the year after. Chicago holds affordable $20MM options on his services for the 2026-27 campaigns. His combination of star upside and extended control window makes him one of the most valuable trade assets in the sport. Moving Robert would signify a full teardown. Trading Cease, who is controllable via arbitration for two seasons, is more in line with a shorter-term “retool.”

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Where Can The Marlins Look For Shortstop Help?

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Shortly after it was reported that the Blue Jays had a two-year, $15MM deal in place with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Craig Mish of the Miami Herald relayed that the Marlins were “down the road with IKF but not at 2/15.” He added that the club may have to use Jon Berti and other internal options to cover the shortstop position, with the club not strongly linked to any big free agent, though a trade is still possible.

The reality is that there is no big free agent shortstop this winter for them to be linked to. There are some guys out there, though each with obvious shortcomings. The trade market is somewhat similar. But with their internal options headlines by Berti, Vidal Bruján and Jacob Amaya, it makes sense for the Marlins to still be casting out their net. Let’s take a look at where the Fish can go from here, with just six weeks to go until Spring Training kicks off.

Free Agents

Tim Anderson

It’s well-known that Anderson is coming off a dreadful season. He hit just one home run in 123 games and produced a line of .245/.286/.296. His wRC+ of 60 was dead last among qualified hitters last year. His defensive metrics also took a tumble, leading to a negative WAR tally at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Taking a shot on Anderson would be a bet that he was held back by a knee injury in 2023 and will bounce back to his previous form. From 2019 to 2022, he hit .318/.347/.473 for a wRC+ of 123 with some passable glovework in there as well.

Amed Rosario

Rosario is somewhat similar to Anderson, as he is coming off a down year but looks better with a wider view. From 2019 to 2022, he hit .282/.315/.412 for a wRC+ of 101, though his defense wasn’t terribly well regarded in that time. His bat dropped off in 2023, though not as far as Anderson’s. He ultimately hit .263/.305/.378 between the Guardians and Dodgers for a wRC+ of 88. The latter club utilized him at second base and he seemed to post better results there, so perhaps he’ll be viewed as more of a second baseman going forward.

Elvis Andrus

Outside of a blip in 2022, Andrus has been subpar at the plate for quite a while but his defense continues to be strong. He got into 112 games for the White Sox last year, spending more time at second base but 404 innings at short, producing four Outs Above Average in that time. Though he hit just .251/.304/.358 for a wRC+ of 81, he was still worth 1.1 fWAR on the year thanks to his speed and defense. Having signed for just $3MM last winter, he should be fairly cheap again this offseason.

Gio Urshela

Urshela is decent at the plate, having hit .281/.323/.415 over the past three seasons for a wRC+ of 106. He’s also a solid defender but has never been more than a part-time option at shortstop. He had just 359 career innings at the position, with subpar grades for that small sample of work.

Others

There are plenty of other free agents who can play shortstop, but it’s hard to envision any of them getting an everyday job there. Each of Brandon Crawford, Kevin Newman, Nick Ahmed, Ehire Adrianza, Luis Guillorme, Enrique Hernández, Adalberto Mondesí, Yu Chang and Kevin Smith are available, but each is either coming off a poor season or is best served as a utility/bench option.

Trade Market

Willy Adames

Adames is perhaps the best player listed in this post, regularly combining 25-homer power with strong defense, but it’s hard to imagine the Marlins prying him loose from Milwaukee. He’s an impending free agent and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $12.4MM. That makes it speculatively possible that the Brewers are open to moving him, but then they would be left with a shortstop vacancy of their own, which would put them in the same tricky spot the Marlins are in now. For a low-spending club like the Marlins that needs a strong prospect pipeline to succeed, it’s unlikely they would part with significant prospects for a rental.

Ha-Seong Kim

Kim is somewhat similar to Adames, as he’s a good player but a rental. He’s hit .256/.338/.391 over the past two seasons and has been great in the field, allowing him to produce 8.1 fWAR in that span. The Padres are running a tight budget but Kim has a CBT hit of just $7MM and they have infield questions. Manny Machado had elbow surgery in October and may need to miss some of the start of the season or at least slot into a DH role for a while. That could leave Kim covering third with Jake Cronenworth at second until Machado comes back, moving Kim back to second and Cronenworth to first.

Kyle Farmer

Farmer is a glove-first utility guy that generally grades out well at shortstop. He’s hit .258/.316/.402 over the past three years for a wRC+ of 94. He has over 2,000 innings at shortstop in his career, with a -1 DRS, 0.7 UZR and +3 OAA. The Twins tended him a contract for 2024 with a projected salary of $6.6MM, but they are looking to cut payroll this year due to their broadcast situation. Their infield is loaded with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff set for regular roles and prospect Brooks Lee charging hard from the minors. Without Farmer, they would still have Willi Castro and Nick Gordon for bench/utility roles and José Miranda in the minors as depth. Like Adames and Kim, he’s a rental, but should be more attainable.

Santiago Espinal

Espinal seems somewhat redundant as a depth/utility player now that the Jays have IKF on the roster. Espinal hit .282/.340/.382 over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of 105 and received strong grades at the three infield positions to the left of first base. He hasn’t played too much shortstop but that’s mostly because the Jays have had Bo Bichette locked in there. Espinal is coming off a down year at the plate, however, having hit .248/.310/.335 in 2023 for a wRC+ of 80. He’s projected for an arbitration salary of $2.5MM and has two extra years of control beyond this one.

Jorge Mateo

The Orioles are loaded with infield talent, with 2024 likely to see a left side of Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, which will squeeze out Mateo. He has hit just .223/.270/.363 in his career for a wRC+ of 77 but has stolen 30-plus bases in each of the past two years. He’s also considered a great defender at short, having grades of 15 DRS, 8 OAA and 9.1 UZR in his career. He will make $2.7MM this year and can be retained for one more arbitration season after that.

Guardians

The Guardians have a high number of shortstop-capable players on their roster, including Brayan Rocchio, Gabriel Arias, Juan Brito, Tyler Freeman, Angel Martínez and José Tena all in the mix. Andrés Giménez could also be on that list, though he’s likely to be the everyday second baseman. They may be willing to part with someone from that group, depending on who they believe will eventually take the job in Cleveland.

Free Agent Profile: Sean Manaea

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Left-hander Sean Manaea has a lengthy track record of being a decent mid-rotation starter, but the past couple of years have been challenging. Overall, he has an earned run average of 4.10 in just over 1,000 career innings at the major league level. He has struck out roughly a quarter of batters faced in each of the past four full seasons and has never had a walk rate higher than 8.4%.

But in 2022, his performance dipped, as his ERA jumped to 4.96 with the Padres. His peripherals were still pretty strong, as he struck out 23.2% of batters faced and walked just 7.5%, but it was nonetheless a poor time for diminished results as he was heading into free agency for the first time.

The Giants took a shot on Manaea, giving him a two-year, $25MM deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. The club was aggressive in deploying openers, only giving Manaea 10 actual starts, but he logged 117 2/3 innings on the year over 37 appearances. He finished with a 4.44 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Though those results were more decent than spectacular, he still decided to trigger his opt-out and return to the open market.

Things get a little more interesting when digging deeper into his season, which may give more insight into his decision to try free agency again. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper this year and had great results with it. Per Statcast data, he first threw the pitch on May 30 and ultimately tossed it 214 times, 10.4% of his pitches thrown on the season overall. He felt comfortable throwing it to both righties and lefties, with a perfect split of 107 sweepers thrown to each. That resulted in a huge whiff percentage of 35.1% and a batting line of .140/.161/.163. Even when batters did make contact, the 82.8mph average exit velocity was easily the lowest of any of his offerings.

The impact on his overall results is quite clear. In his first 11 appearances of the year, prior to introducing the sweeper, he had a 6.61 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 32.6% ground ball rate and eight home runs in just 32 2/3 innings. The rest of the way, he had a 3.60 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, 44% ground ball rate and six home runs in 85 innings. The Giants gave him four actual starts to finish the year and he posted a 2.25 ERA in those, averaging six innings per start.

This is still a fairly small sample size of results but the change in his arsenal at least gives some reason to believe that it may not just be a fluke. Last month, Driveline tweeted some video of a session with Manaea which showed him also trying out a splitter, perhaps suggesting Manaea is still trying to find yet another gear going forward.

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents predicted Manaea for a contract of two years and $22MM, an average annual value of $11MM. That’s roughly the going rate for a back-end innings eater these days. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Lance Lynn got $11MM while Kyle Gibson got $13MM. Jack Flaherty got $14MM and Luis Severino $13MM despite a poor platform seasons, while Frankie Montas got $16MM even though he missed almost all of the year recovering from shoulder surgery. Tyler Mahle got $22MM over two years even though he’s going to miss at least part of the upcoming campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

If Manaea can maintain the results he showed over the final four months of 2023, he could be a bargain, especially with pitchers like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery set for nine-figure deals. The need for starting pitching is still high and just about every club would benefit from the kind of performance Manaea seems capable of. His market has been very quiet this winter, with the Giants reportedly interested in a reunion but no other suitors publicly mentioned.

Each Team’s Free Agent Spending Thus Far

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The New Year serves as a symbolic halfway point of the offseason. We’re two months removed from the final game of last year’s Fall Classic and about seven weeks from the first Spring Training contests of 2024. There’s still plenty of offseason to go — only 22 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents are off the board — but we’ll take this opportunity to check in on which teams have been the most active thus far.

Using our Contract Tracker, we see all of this offseason’s free agent activity. We’ll limit this look to players who inked major league contracts and set the cutoff as November 6 — the date on which free agents were first permitted to speak with teams other than their 2023 club. This excludes the extensions signed by Joe Jiménez (Braves), Max Muncy (Dodgers) and Colin Rea (Brewers) between the start of the offseason and the official opening of free agency.

This isn’t an exhaustive look at a team’s offseason activity. The Yankees (Juan Soto) and Braves (Chris Sale) took on high-priced star players in trade, while the Dodgers extended Tyler Glasnow and the Brewers signed a long-term deal with top prospect Jackson Chourio. This looks only at free agency. Teams are ordered by overall spending.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Total guarantees: $1.043 billion

Philadelphia Phillies

Total guarantees: $172MM

Arizona Diamondbacks

Total guarantees: $122MM

San Francisco Giants

Total guarantees: $121.25MM

Cincinnati Reds

Total guarantees: $106.2MM

Kansas City Royals

Total guarantees: $105MM

St. Louis Cardinals

Total guarantees: $99MM

Detroit Tigers

Total guarantees: $45.75MM

Boston Red Sox

Total guarantees: $39.5MM

Atlanta Braves

Total guarantees: $30MM

San Diego Padres

Total guarantees: $28MM

Texas Rangers

Total guarantees: $26.5MM

Toronto Blue Jays

Total guarantees: $25.5MM

Chicago White Sox

Total guarantees: $24.3MM

Seattle Mariners

Total guarantees: $24MM

New York Mets

Total guarantees: $18.8MM

Pittsburgh Pirates

Total guarantees: $16.2MM

Baltimore Orioles

Total guarantees: $13MM

Houston Astros

Total guarantees: $12MM

Milwaukee Brewers

Total guarantees: $11.25MM

Los Angeles Angels

Total guarantees: More than $6.8MM

Cleveland Guardians

Total guarantees: $4.75MM

Washington Nationals

Total guarantees: $4.25MM

Oakland A’s

Total guarantees: $1.5MM

Tampa Bay Rays

Total guarantees: $1.1MM

Minnesota Twins

Total guarantees: $950K

New York Yankees

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Chicago Cubs

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Miami Marlins

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Colorado Rockies

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

MLBTR Poll: Matt Chapman’s Market

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Beyond Shohei Ohtani, the top of the free agent hitting market has been stagnant. Of the nine hitters in MLBTR’s Top 20 free agents, four (Ohtani, Jeimer Candelario, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jung Hoo Lee) have come off the board. Just over a third of the 20 offensive players to make our Top 50 have signed.

There hasn’t even been much chatter about interest in a few of the market’s top bats. That includes third baseman Matt Chapman, on whom there has been radio silence since a December 4 report the Cubs were keeping an eye on his market. Chicago is among a handful of teams tied to the four-time Gold Glover winner in any capacity. The Blue Jays have expressed interest in a reunion, while the Giants (now led by former A’s manager Bob Melvin) have been linked throughout the offseason.

That trio stands as the likeliest group of suitors. The Cubs have been tied to a number of free agent targets (Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Shota Imanaga among them) but have yet to add anyone from the open market. Chicago allowed Candelario to walk and has an underwhelming group of third base options: Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel and Miles Mastrobuoni.

Toronto has yet to significantly address the position since Chapman hit free agency. They brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year deal last week. He’s better suited as a utility player than a regular. Between Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio and prospect Addison Barger, the Jays could mix and match at the hot corner. No one from that group stands as a clear roadblock to Chapman, though.

In J.D. Davis, the Giants have a better in-house third base option than either Chicago or Toronto do. Chapman isn’t a marked offensive upgrade over Davis, who just turned in another slightly above-average season and has a career .261/.343/.432 hitter. It’s a different story on the other side of the ball.

Davis has been a fringe to below-average defender throughout his career. Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated him favorably with the glove a season ago, but few would argue he’s all that close to Chapman defensively. Only the A’s allowed a higher batting average on ground-balls to the left side of the diamond than the Giants last year. While some of that is on the pitching staff and shortstops (primarily Brandon Crawford), signing Chapman would address that deficiency.

There are a few teams that arguably should be involved on Chapman, although none are without caveats. The Mets have kicked the tires on a few external options at third base — namely Justin Turner and Gio Urshela — after Ronny Mauricio went down with an ACL tear. Still, they don’t seem keen on a top-of-the-market splash as they envision Mauricio and/or Brett Baty as a long-term answer. While the Angels didn’t get much production out of third base, it’s hard to envision another pricey splash with Anthony Rendon due $38MM annually for the next three years. The Phillies appear content with Alec Bohm, while the Tigers have infield prospects Colt Keith and Jace Jung on the horizon.

The Yankees and Mariners have some questions at third base, but a run at Chapman wouldn’t align with their offseason trajectories. New York has tried to move away from their reliance on right-handed hitters with elevated strikeout rates; they’ve also declared DJ LeMahieu the expected starter. Seattle generally shies away from significant free agent contracts for hitters and is prioritizing high-contact bats this offseason.

How will that seemingly limited group of strong fits affect Chapman’s market? At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $150MM pact as he enters his age-31 season. Players like Trevor Story, Dansby Swanson and Javier Báez who broadly fit Chapman’s profile — plus or better infield defenders with power but strikeout questions — have landed in that range in recent winters, although that group all had the advantage of playing shortstop.

Where will Chapman wind up and for how much money?

 

 

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