East Notes: Scherzer, Stanton, Jays, Mets
A look around the majors’ East divisions…
- Nationals ace Max Scherzer came out of a 32-pitch sim game Tuesday feeling “really good,” Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com relays. If all goes well over the next few days, Scherzer could throw a bullpen session Thursday and then either make a rehab start or return to the Nationals’ rotation Sunday. The three-time Cy Young winner has started just twice for the team over the past month and a half – his most recent outing came on July 25 – because of back problems. Should he return this weekend, he’d be on a limited pitch count, according to manager Dave Martinez.
- Injured Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is “up to 75 or 85 percent,” according to manager Aaron Boone (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It’s unclear how close Stanton is to returning, though. The former NL MVP has been on the shelf since late July with a knee injury, and he only took 38 plate appearances before then. Somehow, though, the Yankees have thrived this season with basically no contributions from Stanton. Just about every outfielder they’ve plugged in has succeeded, including formerly unspectacular-looking pickups Mike Tauchman and Cameron Maybin.
- The Blue Jays recalled first baseman Rowdy Tellez from Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday. The 24-year-old forced his way back by mauling pitchers at the Triple-A level, where he slashed .366/.450/.688 with seven home runs in 109 plate appearances. Tellez wasn’t nearly that good this year in the majors before a mid-July demotion, as he hit .227/.280/.436 with 14 HRs over 286 PA. However, considering they’re looking toward the future, the rebuilding Blue Jays want to see if Tellez can continue his minor league brilliance in their uniform. His promotion could spell bad news for veteran first baseman Justin Smoak, who’s likely to lose playing time to Tellez, manager Charlie Montoyo said Tuesday (via Scott Mitchell of TSN). That doesn’t seem to bode well for the Toronto future of Smoak, a pending free agent.
- Mets righty Jacob Rhame has undergone ulnar nerve transposition surgery and will miss the rest of the season, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. The 26-year-old only threw 27 innings between the majors and minors this season, six of which came as a member of the Mets.
East Notes: Red Sox, Mets, Diaz, Rays, Jays
The Red Sox are going to have to “be creative” in the near future when it comes to drawing up a plan for their floundering rotation, manager Alex Cora said Sunday (via Chad Jennings of The Athletic; subscription required). The club has six days off in the next three weeks, which will enable it to skip certain starters, but there’s no denying Boston’s in trouble. The reigning world champions are what could be an insurmountable 7 1/2 games back of an American League wild-card spot, in part because their rotation has endured a Murphy’s Law year. Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez have arguably been the Red Sox’s best starters, but the former hasn’t been the dominant ace we’ve grown accustomed to watching, and the latter has been more good than great. Meantime, David Price is on the injured list (and went through a horrid stretch before hitting the shelf Aug. 8), former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has been horrid, and the pre-trade deadline acquisition of Andrew Cashner has blown up in the team’s face.
Here’s more from the East Coast…
- Despite his ongoing struggles, the sizzling Mets aren’t considering demoting reliever Edwin Diaz to the minors, according to Andy Martino of SNY. The hyped offseason acquisition has surrendered at least one earned run in five of his past six outings, contributing to a horrendous 5.60 ERA in 45 innings on the season. That’s almost four runs higher than the 1.96 ERA the hard-throwing Diaz posted in his final season as a Mariner last year. Most of Diaz’s other numbers have also gone way downhill, though he has still struck out 14.6 batters per nine.
- The sprained right hand Rays outfielder Tommy Pham is “something he’s going to have to manage” through the end of the season, skipper Kevin Cash said Sunday (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). The Rays don’t expect Pham to land on the injured list, but it seems the sprain has negatively affected his production. He’s just 5 for 30 since suffering the injury, though Pham’s still batting a strong .266/.365/.440 with 16 home runs and 13 steals in 485 plate appearances on the season.
- Blue Jays executive vice president, business operations Andrew Miller has joined the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings as their chief operating officer, Adam Schefter of ESPN tweets. Miller had been with the Blue Jays since 2016. His familiarity with Jays president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins dates back to their time in Cleveland’s front office. For more on the Vikings and the NFL, visit ProFootballRumors.com.
Mets Sign Joe Panik
1:10pm: Panik’s going to the Mets, Heyman tweets. They just have to clear a roster spot for him.
10:11am: The Mets are “expected to sign” second baseman Joe Panik, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Mike Anthony of MetsmerizedOnline.com first reported the news). Panik will first need to clear waivers, which will occur at 1 p.m. ET, but that looks like a formality. He should join the Mets for Friday night’s game, per Andy Martino of SNY.
It’ll go down as a short stay without a team for Panik, whom the Giants designated for assignment Tuesday and then subsequently released. Because no one will take on Panik via waivers, the Giants will have to pay him the balance of his $3.8MM salary. The Mets will be able to add him for a prorated league-minimum salary.
Panik, 28, was a quality producer as a Giant from 2014-17, but his production has cratered since the beginning of last season. He has slashed just .245/.308/.325 with seven home runs in 780 plate appearances going back to 2018, giving him the majors’ fourth-worst wRC+ (72) among hitters with at least 700 PA. Panik remains a bear to strike out (9.8 K rate, 9.3 BB percentage), but that wasn’t enough to keep him in San Francisco. When the Giants acquired fellow second basemen Scooter Gennett and Mauricio Dubon at last week’s trade deadline, it sealed Panik’s fate with the franchise.
Panik, a Yonkers native who attended St. John’s University, will now try to bounce back in the familiar surroundings of New York. The Mets have an opening at second now that Robinson Cano’s dealing with a hamstring tear. The Cano injury is one of the few things to go wrong of late for the hard-charging Mets, who’ve gone from laughingstocks to serious playoff contenders in a matter of weeks. Winners of 13 of 14, the Mets suddenly own a 59-56 record and sit a mere half-game back in a congested National League wild-card race.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets Interested In Joe Panik
FRIDAY: There’s “a strong chance” Panik will sign with the Mets when he clears waivers, Martino writes.
THURSDAY: The Mets have interest in Giants second baseman Joe Panik, Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports. Panik was designated for assignment Tuesday and placed on release waivers yesterday, and he’ll officially enter into free agency at noon CT on Friday if he isn’t claimed by another team in the interim.
The Mets’ interest may hinge on whether or not Panik is actually on the open market. If Panik were to sign as a free agent, New York would only be responsible for paying him a prorated MLB minimum salary for the rest of the season (roughly $164K) and the Giants would have to cover the $956K still owed to Panik for the remainder of the one-year, $3.8MM contract he signed last offseason. If the Mets were to just claim Panik off waivers, they’d have to pay him the entire $1.12MM in remaining salary themselves.
As recently noted by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mets are quite close to the luxury tax threshold of $206MM, as Roster Resource estimates New York’s luxury tax number at just under $203.38MM, counting the newly-signed Brad Brach‘s minimum salary. Since the team is loath to make any tax payments and player movement is more difficult now that the trade deadline has passed, the Mets are targeting players like Panik or Brach, who can potentially contribute while their former teams foot the bulk of the bill. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that at least one other team besides the Mets has interest in Panik, though it isn’t known if this mystery team is willing to make a claim for Panik, or if they are also waiting for Panik to hit free agency.
Panik would provide New York with a short-term replacement for Robinson Cano at second base while Cano is on the injured list, though it’s a fair question to wonder how much Panik can produce in the wake of his recent performance. Aside from an All-Star season in 2015, Panik has been a below-average hitter for the rest of his career, including hitting only .245/.308/.325 over 780 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 campaign. As maligned as Cano’s 2019 season has been, Panik has actually been worse — Cano’s 0.4 fWAR is superior to Panik’s sub-replacement level -0.2 fWAR.
Still, at a minimum price, there’s little harm for the Mets in taking a flier on Panik if nothing else than an extra body in their infield mix. Panik would also add another left-handed bat to a largely right-handed Mets lineup, and his presence at second base would allow Jeff McNeil to remain largely in the outfield.
East Injury Notes: Yankees, Braves, Mets
The latest on a few notable injury situations from the East Coast…
- Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton has resumed baseball activities, but the club doesn’t expect him to return before rosters expand in September, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Stanton has been on the injured list since June 26 with a sprained right knee – the latest ailment in a season packed with them for the former NL MVP. The 29-year-old slugger has collected just 38 plate appearances, but the injury-ravaged Yankees have persevered through his absence and many others en route to the American League’s top record (75-39). Key right-handers Luis Severino and Dellin Betances have accompanied Stanton among this year’s unavailable Yankees, though King explains that both pitchers continue to progress. Shoulder and lat problems have prevented either from throwing a single pitch in the majors this season. They could be crucial late-season reinforcements for a pitching-needy New York club that was unable to make upgrades at last week’s trade deadline.
- The Braves still have no timetable for the return of shortstop Dansby Swanson, manager Brian Snitker said Thursday (via David O’Brien of The Athletic). Swanson has been dealing with a heel issue for more than two weeks, which has primarily left short to Johan Camargo in his stead. Unfortunately for the Braves, though, Camargo has put up a year to forget. Since Swanson went down, Camargo has seen his already weak batting line drop to .217/.267/.333 in 222 plate appearances this season. On the other hand, Swanson was hitting a career-high .265/.330/.468 with 17 home runs in 431 PA when he hit the injured list.
- The Mets sent outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the 60-day IL Thursday in a procedural move, though he could begin a rehab assignment within a week, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. After what looked like a breakout 2018 campaign, in which Nimmo slashed .263/.404/.483 with 17 HRs in 535 PA, he has struggled through injuries and poor performance this season. Nimmo hasn’t played since late May because of a bulging disk in his neck, and he limped to a .200/.344/.323 line with three long balls over 161 PA before then. Even without Nimmo, the Mets have gone on an improbable run over the past couple weeks to put themselves firmly in NL wild-card contention. Some of Nimmo’s fellow outfielders, including Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis, have helped lead the charge.
Mets Sign Brad Brach
The Mets have signed right-hander Brad Brach, as per the team’s Twitter feed. Brandon Nimmo was shifted to the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot, while left-hander Donnie Hart was optioned to Triple-A to create space on New York’s active roster.
After being released earlier this week by the Cubs, the Mets are hopeful that a change of scenery can turn around what has been easily the roughest full season of Brach’s career. The righty has a 6.13 ERA, 10.2 K/9, and 1.61 K/BB rate over 39 2/3 innings this season, with an ungainly 6.4 BB/9 and a career-high 37.4% hard-hit ball rate standing out as the biggest issues. That said, Brach was perhaps a touch unlucky to post that big ERA, as his .375 BABIP and ERA predictors (4.13 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.93 SIERA) could hint.
It’s worth noting that Brach also didn’t pitch well last season with the Orioles before a midseason trade to the Braves got him back on track, as Brach had a 1.52 ERA over 23 2/3 frames for Atlanta. Overall, Brach has spent much of the decade as a solid-to-excellent relief arm for the Padres, Orioles, and Braves, posting a 3.05 ERA, 2.43 K/BB rate, and 9.4 K/9 over 449 innings from 2012-18.
Anything close to that performance would be a big help to a New York bullpen that has largely struggled this season, apart from a superlative year from Seth Lugo and some good work from southpaw Justin Wilson over his 21 innings with the club. Edwin Diaz is ostensibly still the closer, though Lugo could potentially get more save opportunities down the stretch, so Brach could possibly step right into a setup role.
The Mets will only be paying Brach a prorated minimum salary for the remainder of the season, as the Cubs are covering the rest of the salary owed to Brach under the terms of his rather bonus-heavy one-year contract. The deal also contains a dual option for 2020 — the Mets can either pay Brach $5MM or buy him out for $100K. If the latter option occurs, Brach can enact a player option worth $1.35MM.
Though Brodie Van Wagenen has only been the Mets’ general manager for less than a year, the club had interest in Brach prior to the 2018 season, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. A Brach-for-Matt Harvey deal was discussed between the Mets and Orioles, which creates an interesting what-if scenario for fans.
Mets, Zack Wheeler “Failed To Progress” In Extension Talks
The Mets were seemingly exploring all options as both buyers and sellers leading up to the trade deadline, including the possibility of signing Zack Wheeler to an extension and (presumably then) trading Noah Syndergaard. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal had the original report about the Mets’ interest in extending Wheeler, and in a longer piece (subscription required), Rosenthal notes that Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen actually did broach a long-term deal with Wheeler’s agent. However, “the conversations failed to progress,” and Wheeler is still on track to reach free agency after the season.
It isn’t any surprise that the two sides didn’t link up, if for no other reason than it’s rare to see a pending free agent sign a midseason extension. Usually, such deals are completed before Opening Day (or perhaps shortly into April) in the player’s final season under contract. With over two-thirds of the season in the books, however, it likely would’ve taken a real sweetheart of an offer from the Mets to convince Wheeler to forego his shot at the open market, particularly since he stands to land a rich deal. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently slotted Wheeler fourth in his latest power ranking of the 2019-20 free agent class.
If anything, Wheeler’s stock has only risen since the trade deadline. The right-hander has tossed 15 shutout innings over his last two starts, continuing his career-long trend of pitching better in the second half of the season. For all of 2019, Wheeler has a 4.20 ERA, 9.62 K/9, 46.3% grounder rate, 4.26 K/BB rate, and .297 xwOBA over 139 1/3 innings, with ERA indicators (3.44 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA) hinting that he is outperforming his actual ERA.
Even before his two post-deadline starts boosted his numbers, Wheeler was still generating a lot of trade interest, though no team was prepared to meet the Mets’ “high, high expectations” (as one team official told Rosenthal) placed on any trade offer for Wheeler, Syndergaard, or any other player who might have been available. The asking price was high enough even to deter teams who might have been willing to overpay for Wheeler — one rival executive tells Rosenthal that his club was prepared to make a “stupid” offer to add him to their rotation before the deadline.
As Rosenthal notes, this “stupid” offer (and possibly other offers from other teams) would likely have given the Mets more in return for Wheeler than the compensatory draft pick they’d be in line to receive if Wheeler signed elsewhere this winter after rejecting a qualifying offer. Like so many other free agents in recent years, Wheeler’s market could be somewhat impacted by a qualifying offer (a one-year deal in the range of $18MM+), though the odds are good right now that he’d reject the QO in search of a longer-term contract.
The Mets ended up being buyers rather than sellers at the deadline, adding Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays and holding onto the rest of their starting staff. At the moment, it’s hard to argue with results, as New York was already on a hot streak going into the deadline that has now extended to a run of 13 wins over their last 14 games. If the Mets did plan to make a playoff push, however, Rosenthal wonders why Stroman ended up being the only move, as the club didn’t address other needs (i.e. relief pitching, center field), and also traded another starter in Jason Vargas to the Phillies, another team in wild card contention. It’s possible the Mets could be active on the August waiver wire, though Rosenthal also wonders if the $206MM luxury tax threshold could have been a consideration — Roster Resource has the Mets’ luxury tax number at just under $203.22MM.
The Mets’ Unsung Offensive Star
It was an action-packed offseason for rookie Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who stole headlines with his transactions and his bold proclamations naming his club the favorite in the National League East. Van Wagenen’s roster hasn’t performed to expectations since then, but after a tumultuous few months, the team has climbed above .500 and put itself in the thick of the NL wild-card race. One of Van Wagenen’s less heralded offseason pickups has been among the Mets at the forefront of their midsummer hot streak.
There was little hype accompanying the Mets’ acquisition of infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis from the Astros on Jan. 6. The Mets surrendered three minor leaguers for Davis, who – despite being a 2014 third-round pick and a solid prospect in Houston – didn’t have an obvious path to playing time with the Astros. However, the 26-year-old quickly worked his way into New York’s plans, thanks in part to season-opening injuries to infielders Todd Frazier and the still-hurt Jed Lowrie, and hasn’t graced the minors at all in 2019 after spending almost all of his Astros tenure there.
While Davis did hold his own at the lower levels with the Astros, he collected just 181 major league plate appearances from 2017-18 – in which he batted an unimpressive .194/.260/.321. On the other hand, the Mets’ version has amassed 293 PA and slashed a terrific .300/.369/.498 (131 wRC+) with 12 home runs and respectable strikeout and walk percentages (20.1 K, 9.2 BB). Much of the damage has come in the summer months for Davis, who overcame an unproductive May to post an .881 OPS in June and a 1.017 mark in July. His recent output has helped New York to a second-half awakening – after going into the All-Star break at 40-50, the team has shockingly risen to 57-56.
Although his production has benefited from a .347 batting average on balls in play – which is sure to drop considering the slow-moving Davis’ groundball-heavy profile – that’s not to say he has lucked into his success. To the contrary, according to Statcast, which places Davis in the league’s 91st percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average, hard-hit percentage and expected batting average. As impressive as Davis’ .369 wOBA is, his .389 xwOBA is even better and ties for 17th among all qualified hitters, sandwiching him between Juan Soto and teammate/NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. It helps, of course, that Davis has chased far fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter.
Regardless of whether the Mets do the unthinkable and rally to a playoff berth this year, it looks as if they have a legitimate long-term piece in Davis. As someone who has handled both right- and left-handed pitchers, the righty-swinging Davis has the makings of an everyday player. And while he has accrued more appearances in left field (38) than at third (31), it’s possible he’ll take over for Frazier – a pending free agent – at the hot corner next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Poll: Will The Mets Make A Wild Run?
An optimist might point out that the Mets now have the best record in baseball since they sent rookie slugger Pete Alonso out for an All-Star tater-mashing bonanza. A pessimist might counter that the club has mostly feasted on sub-par teams in doing so.
And a realist? He or she would focus on what’s truly notable about the New York club’s recent run: the fact that it puts the Mets back to within clear shouting distance of Wild Card position. These twenty-some-odd games didn’t really tell us much about the talent level of this team. They did change the math of the postseason picture.
Fangraphs’ projection-based postseason odds take a fairly favorable view of the Mets, valuing them as a .546 winning-percentage true-talent outfit. It is decidedly less enthused with the Cardinals, Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Rockies … yet projects all of those clubs in the vicinity of .500. The view is notably dimmer on the Giants, but even in that case, we’re looking at a ~fifty game sample in which all kinds of good and bad fortune (run distribution, injuries, high-leverage happenstance, bad hops, missed calls, etc.) can and will intervene.
When reasonable go-forward expectations are so tightly clustered, the starting point in the standings matters quite a bit. That’s why the Mets and Phillies have near the same odds, by Fangraphs’ reckoning, with the former’s estimated true-talent advantage offset by the latter’s existing lead. The Mets have reeled in the pace-setters in the Wild Card race (less so the division), to the point that they’re one of the more plausible teams to land in the play-in game. (Per Fangraphs, the Citi Field denizens rank third among the five non-division-leaders that project to a 20%+ likelihood. 538 and especially B-Ref are less bullish on the Mets.)
Emerging from this jam-packed field will be a matter of exploiting small advantages, squeezing value from the dusty corners of the roster, making correct decisions and performing in the key moments. Do the Mets have an advantage with a loaded rotation? Or are they doomed by a leaky pen? Will their spunky young leaders continued to drive the bus, or struggle when they encounter late-season adjustments from newly attentive pitching staffs? Will GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway pull the right levers and push the right buttons?
There are too many considerations to even begin listing them all. How do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users.)
Will The Mets Make The Postseason?
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No 52% (6,184)
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Yes 48% (5,605)
Total votes: 11,789
Robinson Cano Diagnosed With Hamstring Tear
6:50pm: Cano has been diagnosed with a torn hamstring, the team announced and David Lennon of Newsday was among those to cover on Twitter. The specific grade is not clear; neither is the precise timeline. While surgery is not expected to be necessary, it certainly sounds as if Cano is headed for a lengthy absence.
11:45am: The Mets announced Monday that they’ve placed second baseman Robinson Cano on the 10-day injured list due to a strained left hamstring. Fellow infielder Luis Guillorme is up from Triple-A to take his spot on the active roster. The Mets also officially named right-hander Walker Lockett the 26th man for today’s doubleheader against the Marlins. He’ll start the second game of that twin bill.
Cano, 36, has had a poor overall season in his first year with the Mets but had been heating up at the dish of late. Though he’s hitting just .252/.295/.415 through 346 plate appearances, he’d turned in four consecutive multi-hit appearances prior to his latest injury, which was sustained on what looked to be his third double of yesterday’s game. Cano erupted for a three-homer game back on July 23 but collected just two total hits in seven games between that and the beginning of his recent multi-hit streak.
It’s the third time this season that Cano has landed on the 10-day injured list. The Mets didn’t give an indication as to the severity of the strain or any type of expected timeline for his return. In his absence, the Mets can shift Jeff McNeil to second base and play one of Juan Lagares or Aaron Altherr more in the outfield. Alternatively, if the preference is to keep McNeil in the outfield, Cano’s reps at second base can be divided among Guillorme and Adeiny Hechavarria. It’s likely that some combination of those scenarios will be used to cover second base while Cano is out. He’ll join Brandon Nimmo, Jed Lowrie, Dominic Smith and Yoenis Cespedes as Mets position players on the injured list.