Braves Reportedly Emerge As Favorites For Dallas Keuchel
7:05pm: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Braves and Keuchel are in “serious talks.” There’s “some thought” that the Braves are willing to offer multiple years to Keuchel, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Earlier this morning, the New York Post’s George A. King III reported that Keuchel did indeed have teams willing to push their offer to the multi-year deal range, whereas the Yankees were still set on limiting any offer to one year.
2:18pm: The Braves have emerged as the “frontrunners” to sign free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Yankees have been prominently connected to the southpaw since the draft-pick compensation tied to him expired on Monday, but Atlanta has long been mentioned as a potential landing spot as well. Feinsand notes that the Yankees are still in the mix, but Atlanta has recently stepped up its efforts.
Earlier today, SNY’s Andy Martino reported that the Yankees were also facing some degree of competition from the Cardinals. He, too, listed the Braves as a potential factor in the Keuchel market, along with the Twins, though Minnesota’s interest has yet to be characterized as particularly serious.
For the Braves, Keuchel would help to stabilize a rotation that is enjoying strong performances from high-upside young pitchers who are likely to eventually face some type of workload restrictions (e.g. Mike Soroka, Max Fried). Beyond that excellent pairing, the starting pitching hasn’t panned out as hoped in Atlanta so far this season. Mike Foltynewicz missed the first month of the season and hasn’t performed well since returning (today’s quality outing notwithstanding). Lefty Sean Newcomb was demoted to Triple-A early in the season due to significant control issues, and he’s come back as a reliever. Righty Kevin Gausman has an ERA north of 6.00 through a dozen starts. Of the Braves’ starters, Julio Teheran has been the most effective holdover, but there’s certainly room to add another veteran to the mix to help smooth things over.
Unlike fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, Keuchel has been reported to be more amenable to the concept of a one-year contract. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote earlier this week that agent Scott Boras has discussed some multi-year scenarios that would contain an opt-out after the current season, but a straight one-year pact would be less complicated and more palatable for a signing team. Braves leadership has previously spoken about payroll flexibility, though the exact level of financial resources Liberty Media is willing to provide to general manager Alex Anthopoulos is, of course, anyone’s guess.
Any one-year deal signed by Keuchel would come with a prorated salary; inking him for the same rate as the $17.9MM qualifying offer he rejected back in November, then, would cost a team just north of $11MM from today through season’s end. Atlanta has a payroll of about $121MM at present, and their previous franchise-record Opening Day payroll total was $122MM. Signing Keuchel would push the Braves into uncharted territory, financially speaking — particularly when considering the fact that they’ll likely still make some additions on the trade market in an effort to bolster the bullpen.
That said, the National League East is among the game’s more tightly contested divisions. The Braves are currently 1.5 games behind the division-leading Phillies, 3.5 games ahead of the Mets and five games ahead of the suddenly surging Nationals. Given the competitive nature of the division, it’s understandable that they’re perhaps willing to push beyond previous comfort zones as they vie for a second consecutive playoff berth. Atlanta is currently in possession of the second National League Wild Card spot, but the difference between a guaranteed ticket to the NLDS and a winner-take-all, one-game coinflip is significant for any club.
Latest On Troy Tulowitzki
The Yankees announced that veteran infielder Troy Tulowitzki has left the team’s spring facility, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (Twitter link). He’ll take some time at home to “get over that (injury) hump and kind of push through the finish line of getting exactly right,” manager Aaron Boone explains.
It’s frankly hard to interpret this development. Boone had declared just days ago that Tulowitzki was “pretty much over” the lingering calf injury that originally sent him to the injured list. (Also via Hoch, on Twitter.) It’s unclear when the 34-year-old will be deemed ready for a rehab assignment.
Slated to fill in for a rehabbing Didi Gregorius, Tulowitzki made it through only five games to open the season before his latest health issue arose. He missed all of 2018 after heel surgery and only made it into 66 contests in the prior campaign.
What is clear is that Tulo will not make it back to the MLB roster before Gregorius, whose return to action appears to be imminent. Barring any intervening developments on the injury front, the return of Gregorius will put the shortstop position off limits except for fill-in opportunities.
Tulowitzki has been seeing time at third base in anticipation of just that scenario. There could still be a fit there, but there still isn’t much of an opening even in the absence of Miguel Andujar. The surprising Gio Urshela continues to turn in impressive results at the hot corner and the club will want to keep finding regular action for Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu. Even rookie fill-in Thairo Estrada has hit like a mid-prime Tulo to this point.
Under the circumstances, there’s no real rush from the Yankees’ perspective. It’s not clear at all that the organization has a use for Tulowitzki in the majors. But the Yanks certainly appreciate the value of depth, having both compiled and deployed it quite often this season. Tulowitzki is presently occupying a 40-man spot. While he could be shifted onto the 60-day IL, roster pressures will ultimately force a final determination on his status once he is back to health.
Quick Hits: Braves, Keuchel, Rangers, Calhoun, Yanks, Giants, Rays
Reports have pegged the Braves as one of the favorites to sign free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, but David O’Brien of The Athletic throws cold water on that possibility. The Braves have inquired about Keuchel and do have interest in him, per O’Brien, though he writes their interest has been “overstated.” Atlanta has not engaged in deep negotiations with Keuchel, O’Brien adds. The latest from O’Brien jibes with a Tuesday report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who wrote that the Braves are “uncomfortable” with the idea of paying Keuchel the prorated value of the $17.9MM qualifying offer (approximately $11.5MM).
- Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun landed on the 10-day IL on May 22 with a left quadriceps strain. It turns out the injury will likely keep him out of their lineup until at least late June, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests. The 24-year-old Calhoun, a former top 100 prospect, was amid an encouraging season before he went to the IL. Not only did Calhoun hit .304/.416/.557 with eight home runs and more walks (22) than strikeouts (19) in 138 Triple-A plate appearances, but he got off to a .435/.458/.739 start with a pair of HRs in 24 major league PA.
- The Yankees and Giants were among the many teams that showed interest in outfielder Harold Ramirez during his brief stay on the open market last offseason, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Blue Jays outrighted Ramirez on Nov. 20, and he ended up signing a minor league deal with the Marlins exactly a week later. The 24-year-old has since given the offensively challenged Marlins some much-needed production, having slashed .346/.386/.449 (128 wRC+) in 83 plate appearances.
- Rays outfielder Tommy Pham has been out since May 30 with a strained right calf, but it appears he’ll avoid an IL stint. The club expects to plug Pham back into its lineup Thursday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays. Pham’s enjoying his third straight prodigious campaign at the plate, with a .300/.414/.483 (145 wRC+) line, eight home runs and 38 walks against 43 strikeouts in 244 attempts.
Draft Notes: Leiter, Mets, Allan, Cubs, Rutschman
The Yankees called a familiar name with their 20th-round selection, drafting high school pitcher Jack Leiter. The right-hander is the son of former Yankees pitcher and broadcaster Al Leiter, and is considered one of the top arms of the entire draft class. Were it not for the younger Leiter’s commitment to attend Vanderbilt in the fall, he “would have gone [in the] top 10 picks, easy” a scout tells MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). (The consensus among pundits wasn’t quite that lofty, though he was seen as a high-end draft prospect.) It isn’t unusual for teams to take a flier of a pick on such prospects just to see if they could be enticed to begin their pro careers early, and despite the past ties between the Yankees and the Leiter family, both Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand believe Jack Leiter will indeed head to Vanderbilt. Cooper doesn’t think the Yankees have the bonus pool budget available to offer Leiter anything close to his asking price to forego his college commitment, while Feinsand counters any suggestion of a possible wink-wink deal between Leiter and his dad’s old team by noting that the senior Leiter currently works for the Mets as an advisor in the baseball ops department.
As the draft officially comes to an end for another year, here’s more news and notes from the 2019 class…
- The Mets selected high-school right-hander Matthew Allan with the 89th overall pick, an intriguing part of a strategy by the team to focus their efforts “into largely a three-player draft,” J.J. Cooper writes for Baseball America. Allan is another of the draft’s top high-school arms, but reportedly wanted a $4MM bonus (greater than the slot price for all but the top 14 picks) to turn pro rather than attend the University of Florida. The 89th overall pick only carries a $667.9K recommended price, though the Mets drafted all college seniors (who have less negotiating leverage) in rounds 4-10 to potentially carve out space in their bonus pool. By saving money on those picks and perhaps even on first-rounder Brett Baty, the Mets could have enough to meet Allan’s price. Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports also reports that Allan’s actual demand is “not near the $4MM that has been thrown out,” so the team could have even more breathing room.
- The Cubs haven’t had much success in developing their own pitchers in recent years, and their pick of right-hander Ryan Jensen with the 27th overall selection represents how the team is adjusting its thinking in trying to solve this problem, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes. “Ryan Jensen certainly hits the nail on the head in terms of things that I’ve talked about that we probably avoided,” Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod told Bastian and other reporters. Jensen has had mechanical issues during his time at Fresno State, and at only 6’0″ tall and 180 pounds, the righty doesn’t cut an imposing figure on the mound. The young hurler had two important supporters, however, in Cubs area scout Gabe Zappi and pitching coordinator Brendan Sagara, plus McLeod was himself impressed watching one of Jensen’s starts in person on May 16.
- Reports from the night prior to the draft suggested that the Orioles were still considering multiple options as the first overall pick, and GM Mike Elias indeed told reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Trezza) that “the first four picks were all under significant discussion from us at one point or another.” Rather than take Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn, or JJ Bleday, the O’s instead stuck to expectations and chose top-rated prospect Adley Rutschman. “There are pros and cons with every player profile and every player. We like to work our way through all of that and ultimately decided for the long-range benefit of the organization that this was the right pick,” Elias said. It’s hard to argue with the choice, given that Rutschman was widely seen as the top talent available in this year’s class (and perhaps in many years). Elias praised his new player as “a team leader on and off the field” and “a future fixture for this organization.”
The Yankees Have Found Their First Baseman
It has been almost a full year since the Yankees and Cardinals made what looked like a relatively minor trade at the time. On July 28, 2018, New York shipped relievers Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos to St. Louis for first baseman Luke Voit and international bonus pool money. There was no apparent need for Voit for the Cardinals, who had Matt Carpenter at first base and Jose Martinez capable of playing the position, and there still isn’t now that Paul Goldschmidt‘s a Redbird. On the other hand, Voit has been manna for the Yankees, whose first base production left a lot to be desired in the few years leading up to his arrival.
Aside from a resurgent 2015, injuries and age took their toll on Mark Teixeira in the final few seasons of his career. He retired after his production nosedived in 2016. Similarly, constant injury issues have derailed the career of Greg Bird, who was once Teixeira’s presumed heir apparent. The 26-year-old Bird’s inability to stay on the field helped coax the Yankees into taking a flier on Voit last season.
As just about everyone knows by now, Voit broke out as an absolute force after he first joined the Yankees. From his debut in pinstripes on Aug. 2 through the end of the year, Voit slashed .333/.405/.689 in 148 plate appearances and ranked second in the majors in isolated power (.356), third in wRC+ (194) and sixth in home runs (14). As you’d expect from those numbers, Voit packed a wallop.
Even in a lineup with the hard-hitting trio of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez, Voit’s ability to inflict damage on the baseball was eye-opening. Voit placed first in the majors in barrel percentage and third in rate of balls hit 95 mph or more, per Statcast, which showed little difference between his second-ranked weighted on-base average (.447) and his first-place expected wOBA (.438).
Although Voit was nothing short of marvelous in 2018, his unexpected brilliance still came over a small sample of at-bats. There was skepticism leading into this season as a result. When I asked MLBTR readers in February to predict Voit’s 2019 OPS, most voters forecast a noticeable decline in comparison to what he did a year ago.
To some degree, those who expected Voit to come up well short of what he offered last season have been right. Good fortune played a part in his stunning output, after all. It would have been almost impossible for a slow runner like Voit to replicate last year’s .365 batting average on balls in play. Indeed, he’s down to .302 in that category as of this writing. Likewise, nearly 41 percent of his fly balls weren’t going to continue leaving the yard. They haven’t – he’s at just under 27 percent as he approaches the 60-game mark in 2019. Thanks in part to that drop, his ISO has plummeted to a still-effective .251. Furthermore, the right-handed Voit has shown a bit of vulnerability against left-handed hurlers – whom he crushed last year – while producing far less than he did in 2018 against breaking pitches in general.
Clearly, some of Voit’s marks have come to Earth this season. And yet, the 28-year-old has continued to serve as a legit offensive presence in his first full season in the Bronx. The production is hard to argue with – Voit has amassed 256 PA and hit .270/.383/.521 with 15 long balls, putting him on pace for 34, and the game’s 28th-ranked wRC+ (140). It helps that he has upped his walks by almost 3 percent while cutting strikeouts by exactly 3 percent. He’s also in baseball’s 93rd percentile or higher in both xwOBA and expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast. Voit’s .399 xwOBA outdoes an already imposing wOBA (.385), while his xSLG (.566) has a 45-point lead over his real slugging percentage (.521).
Thanks in part to Voit’s production, the Yankees’ lineup has weathered an early maelstrom of injuries – including to Judge and Stanton, among several others – en route to a 38-20 record. With that in mind, it’s getting harder to regard Voit as anything other than a major threat at the plate. He can’t flash the leather at first the way Teixeira could, but Voit looks like his real successor at the position. Not bad for someone who was a little-known minor leaguer with the Cardinals at this time in 2018.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees Release Cliff Pennington
The Yankees have released veteran infielder Cliff Pennington from his minor league contract, reports Conor Foley of the Scranton Times Tribune (via Twitter).
Pennington, 34, inked a minor league pact with the Yankees back in early April shortly after Miguel Andujar and Troy Tulowitzki both landed on the injured list. He appeared in 29 games with New York’s Triple-A affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, hitting .196/.306/.413 with five long balls, three doubles and a triple in 112 plate appearances. Pennington himself landed on the minor league injured list in mid May due to a hamstring strain. Foley tweeted that he was fielding grounders at shortstop earlier this week, and the Yankees formally activated him from the IL before cutting him loose.
The switch-hitting Pennington is known more for his glove than his bat. He’s a lifetime .242/.309/.339 hitter in 3142 trips to the plate over parts of 11 Major League seasons. The majority of those at-bats came with the Athletics, but he’s also spent three seasons with the D-backs, two with the Angels and partial seasons with both the Reds and Blue Jays. He has nearly 5000 Major League innings at shortstop, more than 1600 at second base and another 325 at the hot corner.
Dallas Keuchel Rumors: 6/4/19
4:33pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a lengthy look at the situation, examining the possible reasons that Keuchel has yet to strike up a deal. As Sherman points out, even the prorated version of the $17.9MM qualifying offer value checks in close to $11.5MM, and few teams have that type of money budgeted this time of year. The Braves, for instance, are “uncomfortable” with that price point, per Sherman, while the Yankees are unlikely to exceed it, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.
Previous struggles from players who waited into the season to sign (e.g. Kendrys Morales, Greg Holland) have created concerns over what to expect from Keuchel. As a result, some clubs would prefer a lower base salary with per-start incentives — similar to the one Gio Gonzalez initially signed with the Yankees in Spring Training — but Keuchel and Boras would obviously prefer a full guarantee. Sherman adds that Keuchel’s camp has floated some multi-year scenarios with an opt-out after the 2019 season, but a straight one-year pact still seems likely.
8:55am: With draft compensation no longer a factor, a signing could come at any time for free agent starter Dallas Keuchel. As always, we’ll be on top of the latest developments in the market here at MLBTR.
We heard yesterday that the Yankees and Braves were among the likeliest possible landing spots for Keuchel, with a few other teams also among those with ongoing interest. Now, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) takes things a bit further by labeling the New York and Atlanta organizations the favorites for the veteran southpaw.
Another source labels the Yankees the true favorites, Feinsand tweets. Braves beat reporters, meanwhile, have poured cold water on the idea of a move for Keuchel. (Links to Twitter.) It’s impossible to know when and how a signing will come together, but Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that there’s a sense resolution could come “relatively soon.”
As things stand, says Feinsand, the Yankees and Braves “are believed to be in the same area with their offers.” No doubt Keuchel and agent Scott Boras are hopeful that one of these or another team will create some separation in the financial department.
There has long been some uncertainty regarding Keuchel’s contractual demands and outlook. There’s little question he has backed down from any opening asking price, but there have been varying indications as to whether he’d accept (or even seek) a contract that wraps up at season’s end. If he’s only looking for a half-year arrangement, Keuchel will surely want it to be for a hefty rate of pay. But he’d assuredly also consider other factors with an eye already on a return to the open market.
Even if the Yanks and Braves are indeed “favorites” at the moment, it’s worth remembering that such a status means relatively little until the ink hits the paper. Other organizations are surely also engaged with Boras — the Cardinals, Rays, Brewers, and Twins have all been cited of late — and all are no doubt also canvassing the early trade market possibilities.
Latest On Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel‘s market, like that of fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, figures to accelerate in the coming days now that he’s no longer tied to draft-pick compensation. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees, Cardinals and Braves are among the favorites to land Keuchel — though as of yesterday, Keuchel and the Yankees were still a ways apart in terms of asking price. Earlier this morning, the Twins were also reported to have had recent talks with Keuchel’s agent, Scott Boras.
The rationale behind the Yankees’ interest in Keuchel isn’t difficult to see. Luis Severino has yet to pitch in 2019, primarily due to a lat strain that will likely sideline him into next month. Both James Paxton and CC Sabathia have spent time on the injured list, and Domingo German figures to be on some type of innings limit after throwing only 94 innings in 2018 between the Majors and minors (and 123 1/3 frames the year prior). Signing Keuchel would come with notable luxury ramifications for the Yankees, who’d pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar spent on him (per Jason Martinez’s luxury projections at Roster Resource).
The Cardinals, too, have seen some rotation issues pop up. Carlos Martinez has been moved to the bullpen after spending the beginning of the season on the injured list, while free-agent-to-be Michael Wacha has also been moved to a relief following an awful start to the year. Rookie Genesis Cabrera is getting his first look at the MLB level, but the Cards are in 1.5 games back in the tightly contested National League Central — a division where the difference between first place and fifth place is a mere span of 6.5 games at the moment.
Keuchel’s shedding of draft pick compensation matters less to the Astros than to others, since they were never in line to forfeit one of their picks to retain him and have known for a while they wouldn’t end up scoring a compensatory pick. But ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests (subscription required) that there may yet be a gap between what Houston is willing to offer and what Keuchel is seeking. The Astros offered Keuchel a one-year deal worth about $15MM early in Spring Training when he was still seeking a multi-year deal, according to Olney. Even though his asking price has come down since that point, he’s still reported to be seeking a one-year deal worth the $17.9MM value of the qualifying offer he rejected last November. Any such sum would be prorated over the course of the remainder of the season.
Yankees Reinstate CC Sabathia From Injured List
Prior to tonight’s game against the Red Sox, the Yankees have reinstated veteran left-hander CC Sabathia from the 10-day injured list, according to an official team release. Sabathia is in line to start Sunday’s game for the Bombers.
Sabathia landed on the injured list on May 23 thanks to a bout with right knee inflammation. Thankfully for the Yankees, the injury didn’t keep him out of action for an extended period of time and his stay of the IL was a short one.
The big southpaw’s return to action certainly won’t be a walk in the park, though, as he draws a tough Red Sox lineup in primetime, though it’s a lineup that has mustered just four runs in the first two games of this weekend set in the Bronx.
Amidst an injury-riddled season for the Yankees, Sabathia has helped to counterbalance injuries to Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, and briefly James Paxton. Of course, Sabathia has not been spectacular, but the 38-year-old has offered stability to a team that has faced considerable adversity.
In eight starts, Sabathia has provided 41 1/3 innings of solid ball, working to a 3.48 ERA, though troubles with the home run ball (allowing 2.4 homers per nine innings pitched) are driving a less promising 6.27 FIP. Regardless, with Severino, Montgomery, and Jonathan Loaisiga on the shelf, the team will gladly welcome back the experienced Sabathia.
Latest On Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
There’s a “real chance” Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius will rejoin the Bombers during their June 7-9 series in Cleveland, manager Aaron Boone said Saturday (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Gregorius, who has been working back from the Tommy John surgery he underwent on his right elbow last October, began a minor league rehab assignment last weekend.
Surprisingly, despite the absences of Gregorius and a slew of other integral players, the Yankees own the American League’s second-best record at 37-19. Gleyber Torres has stepped up to man shortstop in Gregorius’ place, while free-agent addition DJ LeMahieu has handled second base with aplomb and third bagger Gio Urshela has been one of the game’s unexpected success stories thus far. But the Yankees are understandably excited for the arrival of the 29-year-old Gregorius, who hit .277/.326/.486 (114 wRC+) with 52 home runs and 8.7 fWAR in 1,139 plate appearances from 2017-18.
Like Gregorius, outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have been among prominent wounded Yankees in 2019. They’re seemingly inching closer to comebacks, though, as George A. King III of the New York Post explains. Judge, out since April 21 thanks to a left oblique strain, has begun taking fly balls. And Stanton’s “probably getting close to starting that rehab assignment,” according to Boone. New York sent Stanton to the IL three games into the season with a left biceps strain, but he has since suffered multiple other left side injuries (shoulder, calf) that have halted his progress.
Judge and Stanton accounted for 65 home runs in 250 games a year ago, but their injuries have limited them to five HRs (all from Judge) in 23 contests in 2019. While the hulking sluggers are arguably the Yankees’ top two offensive players, the club has gotten by in the outfield with respectable performances from Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Cameron Maybin and Mike Tauchman. And although he hasn’t posted good numbers so far this season, it helps that New York recently got back center fielder Aaron Hicks. The Yankees activated Hicks off the IL on May 13 after he missed the first month and a half of the year because of lower back problems.