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Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays are known for their roster turnover and this offseason was no exception as they made many trades. However, most of the moves were around the edges of their roster, meaning they will go into 2023 with a fairly similar squad to the one that just won 86 games and made the playoffs for a fourth straight year. It’s possible they could have better results this season simply by having better health outcomes, though they also made one significant free agent splash to upgrade the squad.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $11MM
Total spending: $40MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The injury bug hit the Rays pretty hard in 2022, as only four pitchers on the staff topped 80 innings pitched and only four position players got into more than 115 games. Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe and others missed significant time. But the club leaned on its trademark depth and still managed to squeeze into the postseason for a fourth straight year.

As the offseason began, the first item on the agenda was a roster crunch, a common issue for a club that stockpiles depth and runs tight budgets. They had to make some tough decisions due to a 19-player arbitration class and a number of players who needed to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Those tough decisions led to the departure of a few long-tenured Rays.

Defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier had his option turned down after a 2022 season ended by hip surgery. Ryan Yarbrough was non-tendered after another season of passable but fairly uninspiring results. Nick Anderson was placed on waivers after two straight seasons mostly lost to injury, later clearing and signing with Atlanta. Ji-Man Choi could have been retained for one more season via arbitration but was instead flipped to the Pirates. J.P. Feyereisen still had four years of club control but was traded to the Dodgers as he is expected to miss most of the upcoming season due to shoulder surgery. Along with a few other swaps, the Rays ended up making eight trades in a span of about a month, from mid-November to mid-December. Those moves helped clear out some salary and some roster space, along with the free agent departures of Corey Kluber, Mike Zunino and David Peralta.

It feels strange to look at all of that roster churn and characterize it as stability, but the club didn’t really subtract a core performer, at least from last year’s club. Some other offseasons have seen the Rays part with notable players like Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows or Blake Snell, but this year’s departures weren’t quite as prominent. Players like Kiermaier, Zunino, Feyereisen and Anderson missed significant time last year and weren’t really factors very often, if at all. Kiermaier has been a key cog on the team for the past decade, though he’s often been limited by injuries, including being held to just 63 contests last year. It’s a similar story for Zunino, who has been the club’s primary catcher for the past four years but only got into 36 games last season.

Arguably, the club’s biggest loss from last year is Kluber, as he made 31 starts with a 4.34 ERA. That’s not exactly within range of his previous Cy Young form, but that still had value to a club that dealt with so many injury absences.

It’s possible that the club recognized this, as their most significant offseason splash was to replace Kluber in the rotation. Zach Eflin was signed to a three-year, $40MM deal. When compared to some of the other free agent deals signed around the league, it might not seem that significant. However, that was the only major league deal that the Rays gave out this winter, and the $40MM guarantee is the largest they’ve given to a free agent in the history of the franchise.

Eflin, 29 in April, has spent his entire big league career thus far with the Phillies, serving as a solid mid-rotation option. Over the past five years, he’s tossed 531 2/3 innings with a 4.16 ERA. It’s possible that he could find another gear, as he’s kept his FIP, SIERA and xERA under 4.00 in each of the past three seasons. The Rays have shown a penchant for helping players maximize their potential and maybe they’ve found a solid candidate here, showing their faith with that huge commitment, relative to their standards.

But it’s not without risks as Eflin has continually battled knee issues and only once topped 130 innings in a major league season, which was back in 2019. In 2017, a then 22-year-old Eflin admitted to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that he’d already been dealing with knee pain for 10-12 years. He felt good after surgery at that time but had to go under the knife again in 2021 and also missed a couple months with knee issues last year. That doesn’t exactly paint a picture of Eflin being a solid bet for the largest free agent investment the club’s ever made, but there were fairly similar concerns around Kluber a year ago. Perhaps the Rays have a plan in mind for how to keep Eflin healthy and effective all year long.

The club was also connected in rumors to other players this offseason, including big names like Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Sean Murphy. Ultimately, none of those came to fruition, leaving the main storylines in Tampa as the Eflin signing and the batch of trades. Most of the players that came back in those deals are still young and a ways off from contributing. That means the 2023 club will be fairly reliant on better health from the incumbent players, in addition to the club’s annual tradition of funneling minor leaguers onto the major league roster.

Eflin will jump into a rotation that will be without Baz for much or perhaps all of the season, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. Glasnow, who missed almost all of 2022 from his own Tommy John recovery, was hoping for a fully healthy season here in 2023. He’s currently dealing with an oblique strain that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks, but he should be able to take a spot once he gets past that. With Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs still in the mix, the rotation seems to be in decent shape. While Glasnow is out, they might have to do some of their bullpen games or opener days, but they also have depth options in Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming. Prospect Taj Bradley could launch himself into the mix at some point as well, having reached Triple-A last year.

On the position player side, much of the same crew from last year will be back, despite the aforementioned roster shuffling. With Choi gone, first base could perhaps be manned by Yandy Díaz, freeing up the hot corner for Isaac Paredes, though Díaz could still see some time at third going forward. First base could also be manned by Harold Ramírez at times, with he and Diaz perhaps taking turns as the designated hitter. In the middle infield, the club will be hoping for better health from both Franco and Lowe, who were limited by injuries to 83 and 65 games last year, respectively.

In the outfield, the post-Kiermaier era will start with Jose Siri taking over in center. He didn’t hit much last year but was great in the field and on the base paths. He’s got a solid floor and could be a great contributor if he can cut down on the strikeouts. That’s a big “if” though, since he’s gone down on strikes in 33.4% of his plate appearances thus far, with fairly similar rates in Triple-A and Double-A. Since he turns 28 in July, it remains to be seen how much more rope the Rays will give him to correct that issue.

Randy Arozarena and Manuel Margot are still around and should be flanking Siri out on the turf. Both the infield and the outfield will be bolstered by depth options who could force their way into more playing time as the season goes along. Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, Luke Raley, Curtis Mead, Vidal Bruján and Josh Lowe are all on the 40-man roster and can all play multiple positions. Depending on health and performance, they all could get slotted in somewhere at some point. Mead seems to be particularly highly valued by the club, as they have reportedly been discussing an extension despite the fact that he’s yet to make his major league debut. Brujan used to be in that position, as he was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has slashed a dismal .150/.207/.231 in his first 188 MLB plate appearances.

The club had at least some desire to upgrade behind the plate since they were interested in Murphy, but they didn’t ultimately make a move. This is one area of the roster where the club feels a bit vulnerable, with Christian Bethancourt, Francisco Mejía and René Pinto the three backstops on the roster. Bethancourt had a solid season in 2022, but that was his first major league action since 2017, as he had been in the minors and the KBO in the interim. Mejia was solid in 2021 but disappointed last year, both at the plate and behind it. Pinto has just 25 games in the majors but struck out in 42.2% of his plate appearances in that time.

In the bullpen, despite losing Feyereisen, Raley and others, they still have an enviable collection of intriguing arms. It includes Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Jalen Beeks, Garrett Cleavinger and more. Given the club’s ability to produce quality relievers seemingly at will, a few surprising names could jump into this mix later in the summer.

Turning to the long-term picture, the Rays added some cost certainty by agreeing to extensions with three players. Springs, Fairbanks and Diaz all put pen to paper this winter, locking in some future earnings. In exchange for that financial security, each of them pushed back their respective trips to free agency. Including the club options that the Rays now have on all three players, Fairbanks relinquished one free agent season, Diaz two, and Springs three. Those extensions theoretically give the club a bit more continuity in the years to come, but that might not necessarily be the case. An extension doesn’t mean a trade is off the table. Snell was extended going into 2019 but was traded to the Padres less than two years later.

Another piece of the long-term picture that needs to come into focus is the stadium. Both the club and the league have been open about the fact that an upgrade is needed over Tropicana Field. The team’s lease on the Trop goes through 2027, which puts some pressure to get solutions in place. The latest updates are that the mayor of St. Petersburg has given his support to the proposed redevelopment plan. The next step is that city council needs to approve a term sheet, which is currently being negotiated. Once it’s determined what funding commitments will come from the city, Pinellas County and the Rays, it’s possible the term sheet could be agreed upon by this summer. Making progress on this front will have implications not just for the Rays but for the league as well, as commissioner Rob Manfred has repeatedly stated that expanding beyond the current 30 major league teams won’t happen until both the Rays and A’s find solutions for their respective stadium situations.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason?
C 44.64% (737 votes)
B 30.16% (498 votes)
D 14.11% (233 votes)
F 5.94% (98 votes)
A 5.15% (85 votes)
Total Votes: 1,651

In conjunction with the Rays offseason review, we hosted a Rays-focused chat on March 9. You can click here to read the transcript.

Tony Gonsolin’s Availability For Opening Day In Question

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Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin suffered a left ankle sprain during a pitcher-fielding practice on Monday. The club has downplayed the injury’s longer-term severity, but manager Dave Roberts indicated this evening the right-hander wasn’t in great position for Opening Day (via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

On a positive note, Roberts noted that x-rays have come back negative. However, Gonsolin’s ankle is still swollen and the manager said he “doesn’t feel good” about the All-Star hurler being ready for the start of the season. Gonsolin isn’t expected to throw again for several days, and Harris notes that it’s not out of the question he could eventually go for an MRI.

Gonsolin has spent some time on the injured list in each of the past two seasons. He has battled shoulder and forearm concerns. The ankle issue is obviously less worrisome than arm issues, although it could keep him out of action early in the year. Gonsolin has never topped 24 MLB starts in a season, with last year’s 130 1/3 innings representing a career best.

The St. Mary’s product had an excellent year on a rate basis, however. He posted a 2.14 ERA, striking out an above-average 23.9% of opposing hitters while walking only 7% of opponents. Gonsolin picked up swinging strikes on a strong 12.3% of his offerings and did a solid job avoiding hard contact.

If he’s forced to start the season on the injured list, the Dodgers will have to find a short-term rotation replacement, as they’re scheduled for just one off day within the schedule’s first two weeks. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May look to be established in the top four spots. Right-handers Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove and Andre Jackson are all on the 40-man roster. Pepiot would seem to have the upper hand among that group if L.A. needed a couple starts in Gonsolin’s stead early in the year.

View The Transcript Of Today’s Chat With Former MLB All-Star Pitcher Dan Haren

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Dan Haren joined MLBTR readers for a chat Wednesday evening.  Click here to view the transcript.  If you’re a current or former MLB player who would like to do a chat here, contact us!

Dan Haren was drafted in the second round in 2001 by the Cardinals out of Pepperdine.  He reached the Majors in June of 2003, throwing a quality start against Barry Bonds and the Giants.

Haren spent the bulk of the following season at Triple-A, rejoining the big league club late in the season and moving in and out of the rotation.  He wound up pitching in five games during the postseason that year, including two scoreless outings in the World Series.

After the ’04 season, the Cardinals traded Haren, Daric Barton, and Kiko Calero to the A’s for Mark Mulder.  Haren quickly became a horse in Oakland’s rotation, and by the end of his first season with the A’s he signed a four-year extension covering his arbitration years worth $12.65MM.  From 2005-07 with the A’s, Haren made 34 starts each year and totaled 662 2/3 innings.  The 2006 A’s won the AL West and made it to the ALCS, with Haren making two postseason starts and winning one of them.

In 2007, Haren stepped into the leadership void left by Barry Zito’s departure, getting the Opening Day nod and starting for the AL All-Star team.  However, after that season the A’s and GM Billy Beane went into a rebuild, shipping Haren to the Diamondbacks for Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, and Greg Smith.  Haren joined a D-backs rotation that already had Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson.

2008 was another excellent All-Star season for Haren, in which he led the NL in strikeout to walk ratio.  Before that season ended, Haren signed a new extension with Arizona potentially running through 2013.  His excellence continued in ’09, as Haren finished fifth in the Cy Young voting and again led the league in strikeout to walk ratio.

However, at the 2010 trade deadline, Haren was on the move in a blockbuster trade for the third time in his career.  This time he was headed to the Angels for Patrick Corbin, Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, and Tyler Skaggs.  He continued his dominance in 2011, leading the league in strikeout to walk ratio yet again and finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting.

After the 2012 season, Haren was nearly traded to the Cubs for Carlos Marmol, but Chicago balked and the Angels declined his club option.  Reaching free agency for the first time in his career, MLBTR ranked Haren eighth on our top 50 list.  He inked a one-year deal with the Nationals that winter.  After a difficult season in D.C. (by his lofty standards), Haren landed closer to home with another one-year deal, this time with the Dodgers.  Upon reaching 180 innings for the Dodgers, a $10MM player option vested for 2015, and Haren exercised it.

Another season with the Dodgers was not in the cards for Haren, however, and he landed with the Marlins as part of blockbuster trade number four.  That was hardly Haren’s preference, but the Marlins hung onto him until they shipped him to the Cubs at the ’15 trade deadline.  Rather than explore free agency again, Haren chose to hang up his cleats at the age of 35.

Over the seven-year span from 2005-11, Haren was one of the very best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.  His WAR total of 33.2 during that time ranked fourth in baseball, and his innings total ranked second.  Though he typically topped out around 92 miles per hour in his prime, Haren was a master of command and an old-school horse.  He pitched at least 216 innings in each of those seven seasons, and his total of 1,581 1/3 was topped only by CC Sabathia.  Haren finished his career with three All-Star appearances, two top-seven Cy Young finishes, 153 wins, and a 3.75 ERA.

In recent years, Haren has served as a “pitching strategist” for the Diamondbacks, in which he “provides advance scouting reports and guidance to the club’s pitchers to maximize results on the mound.”  You can find him on Twitter @ithrow88.  That’s exactly what we did, and Dan graciously accepted our invitation to chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to join in!

Dana Brown Discusses Astros’ Attempted Contract Extensions

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The Astros hired Dana Brown to be the club’s new general manager in January, plucking him from his previous job as vice president of scouting for Atlanta. Since then, he’s been quite open about his desire to replicate that club’s penchant for signing core players to long-term extensions, though his tune has been changing this week.

Brown’s previous employer has been very aggressive at locking up players to lengthy deals, with Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris all recently putting pen to paper. Since switching clubs, Brown has mentioned Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman as some of the players he’s hoping to be similarly locked up with his new club.

The Javier extension was crossed off the list last month but it seems the plans for the others have hit a few snags since then, as it was reported last night that the club isn’t very close to a deal in its talks with either Valdez and Tucker. Brown provided some comments on the situation to reporters today, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, acknowledging that he “felt a little less optimistic” about getting deals done with those two players.

The reporting yesterday indicated that Brown expected to have more information in the next 48 hours. That timeline still seems to be holding today, with Brown saying he’s expecting to hear from the representatives of both players by Thursday afternoon, though he doesn’t want to characterize it as a deadline. “We’re trying to have conversations and, at some point, the player wants to play,” Brown said. “We can still talk. It’s not a deadline. It’s like ‘Hey, I’ll get back to you in the next 24-48 hours and give you an update.’ It’s not that it’s over. It’s just that, for right now, we may decide to wait a little bit.”

Despite Brown’s initial eagerness to get these deals done, he’s now operating in a new organization. As Rome points out, the largest extension that the Astros have given out under owner Jim Crane is the five-year, $151MM deal for Altuve, followed by six years and $115MM for Yordan Alvarez and then five years and $100MM for Bregman. Brown suggests that Crane is willing to go a bit beyond the five-year mark, but not substantially.

“I think Jim is willing to (go) further, I just don’t know that I have the comfort of going as long as, say, maybe I’ll have to to get Tucker done,” Brown said. “I just don’t like big deals. If they’re open for something a little more than five, maybe I would be open to doing that. I’m sure Jim would be, too. I think Jim is very open. But doing 10-year deals, I don’t know if we’ll ever get to that point. That’s a lot of years, man. I’m not comfortable doing 10. I don’t mind doing 10 if you get a guy to the big leagues in the early 20s, really feel like he’s a big piece of the franchise, face of the franchise, and get him done for 10 and he finishes it out at 32-33. I’m OK with that,” Brown continued. “These deals that go beyond 33, for me, I’m uncomfortable. The analytics on that is not good.”

Rome adds that he asked Brown about the fact that Atlanta, under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, gave Olson $168MM over eight years and then $212MM over ten years to Riley. “Alex was the boss there. I don’t know if I would have done those deals because I’m just not a 10-year guy. But I would do multiple years. I would even go up to seven.” Riley’s ten-year deal is set to go through 2032, when he will be in his age-35 season. Olson’s will go through 2029, which will also be his age-35 season. Atlanta has a club option on each player for their respective age-36 seasons. According to Brown’s framing, those deals both went beyond his comfort zone but that Anthopoulos had a greater willingness to lengthen those deals to get them done.

Tucker is 26 years old right now and is set to make $5MM this season after losing his arbitration battle to the club. If the Astros were to offer him a seven-year extension that begins next season, it would go through 2030, which would be Tucker’s age-33 campaign. Taking Brown’s comments at face value, it seems that is where his comfort zone ends. It’s possible that this is merely a negotiating tactic and that the willingness to do a longer deal is greater than he’s letting on. But it’s also possible that the reason a deal hasn’t come together yet is that Tucker’s camp is trying to push for a longer pact that goes into his mid-3os, like those secured by Olson and Riley.

Whether the Astros can bridge those gaps and get extensions done remains to be seen, but it seems Brown’s preference would be for them to come together soon. “I don’t like to do much of it during the season, if you can avoid that,” he says. In the grand scheme of things, these comments perhaps point to Brown changing course from his time in Atlanta, either because that is his prerogative or the organization’s. If one takes him at his word, then this means the club will perhaps have less risk tolerance than Atlanta and will therefore be less likely to hand out extensions to its players. The club’s eventual actions will be more important than words in establishing the reputation, but the outward suggestion is that the blueprint in Houston won’t be exactly the same as it was in Atlanta.

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson

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The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.

*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563

Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA

Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.

Three More

Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.

Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.

AL East Notes: Armstrong, Jones, Turner

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Rays righty Shawn Armstrong won’t be ready for the start of the season, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Armstrong, who’s dealing with a neck injury, is “highly unlikely to be ready” for Opening Day, manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin. The team is still working to ascertain a more specific diagnosis.

Armstrong, 32, bounced between four teams from 2019-22 but twice found his way to the Rays and, in 2022, finally had the breakout showing of which several clubs clearly believed him to be capable. In 55 innings with Tampa Bay, he posted a solid 3.60 ERA with even more encouraging strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates of 26%, 6% and 49.7% — all of which are better than the league average. Armstrong’s heater sat at a career-best 95.6 mph with Tampa Bay in 2022, and his 12.3% swinging-strike rate, and 38% opponents’ chase rate both suggest he could have more strikeouts in the tank.

Armstrong was a lock to make the club, both based on last year’s performance and his lack of minor league options, so he’ll be placed on the Major League injured list at some point. Candidates to replace him in the big league bullpen to begin the season include righties Calvin Faucher and Rule 5 selection Kevin Kelly, both of whom are on the 40-man roster. Kelly would have to hold his spot on the MLB roster or be offered back to the Guardians upon clearing waivers. The Rays are expected to select the contract of non-roster righty Trevor Kelley later this month, and other non-roster veterans who’ll be vying for the open spot include Heath Hembree, Kyle Crick and Ryan Burr — among many others.

Some other notes from the division…

  • The Rays are going to begin taking a look at shortstop prospect Greg Jones out in the outfield, tweets Topkin. The 2019 first-rounder has played exclusively at short in his minor league career to date, but the Rays place an emphasis on defensive versatility in all their players and the team has Wander Franco entrenched at shortstop. Jones, who was selected to the 40-man roster over the winter, ranked as the No. 91 prospect in baseball prior to the 2022 season, per MLB.com, but his stock dipped a bit with last year’s .238/.318/.392 showing in 358 Double-A plate appearances. Jones appeared in 79 games, but that was actually a career-high, as he’s been plagued by both shoulder and leg injuries in his young career. FanGraphs credits Jones with 80-grade speed, and Baseball America lauds his athleticism, writing that some scouts believe he can be a plus defender in center field. Adding some outfield work to his skill set will only create further opportunities for the 25-year-old switch-hitter to work his way onto the big league roster.
  • The Red Sox got a scare earlier this week when infielder Justin Turner was hit in the face with a pitch. Though the scene was quite scary to look at, with a trainer holding a towel to Turner’s bloody face, it appears for now as though Turner has avoided any kind of nightmare scenario. Turner’s wife later reported that the slugger required 16 stitches but didn’t fracture anything. Manager Alex Cora provided an update today, relayed by Mike Monaco of NESN, saying that Turner will probably get those stitches removed in two weeks. With just over three weeks until Opening Day, there could be some time there for Turner to make it back on the field, but Cora says it’s too early to think about that. It’s possible Turner might still miss a bit of time, but given how gruesome the scene was to watch, a small absence would likely be considered a good outcome.

Pirates’ Jarlin Garcia Shut Down For Several Weeks

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Pirates lefty Jarlin Garcia, who signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with a club option for the 2024 season this offseason, will go multiple weeks without throwing, director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk announced Wednesday (Twitter link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). While scans of Garcia’s elbow and shoulder have come back clean, he’s still unable to grip a baseball after leaving his most recent spring outing with tightness in his left arm. The club is still in the process of trying to secure a more concrete diagnosis, but the fact that they’re expecting a weeks-long break from throwing effectively rules Garcia out for Opening Day.

Garcia, 30, spent the past three seasons with the Giants and was with the Marlins for the three seasons prior. He’s not a household name but has emerged as a solid reliever over the past several years. Dating back to 2019, he’s tossed 202 2/3 innings of 2.89 ERA ball while picking up a pair of saves and 27 holds. Garcia’s 21.6% strikeout rate and 42.1% ground-ball rate are both a few ticks below the league average in that time, but his 7.2% walk rate is a fair sight better than league average as well. He sits 93.4 mph with his heater, his primary offering, and complements it with a changeup and slider that he uses equally as often as the other — though the former is the more effective offering of the two.

The injury to Garcia leaves the Pirates with just one left-handed bullpen option on the 40-man roster: Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez, whom they selected out of the Dodgers organization. Hernandez has yet to pitch in Triple-A but posted a 2.14 ERA and 22-to-7 K/BB ratio in 21 High-A frames last year before moving up to Double-A and logging a 3.96 ERA in 38 2/3 frames. He fanned an impressive 29.7% of his opponents in Double-A but also issued walks at an unsightly 11.4% clip.

An absence from Garcia would certainly seem to increase Hernandez’s chances of breaking the roster, though the Bucs may not relish the idea of a Rule 5 pick with no Triple-A experience being their lone left-on-left options late in games to begin the season. As such, non-roster invitees like Caleb Smith, Rob Zastryzny, Angel Perdomo and Daniel Zamora could all see increased chances of making the club. The free-agent market still has a few lefties of note as well, including Zack Britton, Mike Minor and Ross Detwiler.

Alternatively, Pittsburgh has a few other paths to consider. Many veterans on minor league deals with other clubs will exercise opt-outs in their contracts between now and Opening Day, upon being informed they haven’t made their current club’s roster. There’s also the waiver wire to monitor and the spring trade market, both of which will pick up in a few weeks when teams begin selecting the contracts of non-roster veterans who’ve made the club and, in corresponding moves, shedding others from the 40-man roster.

Mitch Moreland Announces Retirement

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Twelve-year big league veteran Mitch Moreland didn’t play during the 2022 season, and the 37-year-old confirmed to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that his days as a player are now behind him. “I’m retired,” Moreland said, noting that he’s enjoyed being able to spend the past year-plus with his family. Bradford adds that Moreland is currently in Red Sox camp to work with some younger players after getting an invite from chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and manager Alex Cora.

Selected by the Rangers in the  17th round of the 2007 draft, Moreland was in the big leagues just over three years later, making a strong impression with a .255/.364/.469 slash and nine homers in 173 plate appearances as a rookie. That strong showing set the stage for a torrid postseason effort in which a then 24-year-old Moreland batted .348/.400/.500 with a homer and four doubles, helping Texas advance to the World Series, where they fell to the Giants in a 4-1 series loss.

From that point forth, Moreland was entrenched as a big leaguer. He logged regular time in each of the next 11 seasons, serving as a slick-fielding, righty-mashing slugger in the middle of the order for the Rangers, Red Sox and — more briefly — Padres and Athletics. Along the way, Moreland won a Gold Glove for his work at first base with the Rangers and secured an All-Star nod with the Red Sox, who signed him as a free agent prior to the 2017 season and twice re-signed him in free agency — first for two years (2018-19) and then for another one-year deal (2020).

The 2018 season was a big one for Moreland not only due to his All-Star selection but also from a big-picture standpoint; while Moreland’s Rangers fell shy in consecutive World Series appearances in 2010-11, he reached the Fall Classic for a third time with the ’18 Red Sox and this time captured the championship that had twice eluded him in the past. As with the 2010 Rangers, Moreland played a big role in the Red Sox’ postseason success that year, slashing .294/.368/.529 in 19 plate appearances. That included a pinch-hit, three-run bomb at Dodger Stadium in the seventh inning of Game 4 of the World Series — a blast that jumpstarted a late-inning rally which saw Boston score nine runs en route to a comeback victory (video).

The Red Sox wound up trading Moreland to the Padres for a pair of prospects (Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario) during the shortened 2020 season. He scuffled through a small sample of 73 plate appearances before again heating up in the postseason, where he went 4-for-8 with a double. Moreland inked a one-year deal with Oakland that offseason but was limited to 82 games by ribcage and wrist injuries.

That proved to be the final season of Moreland’s playing career, and while it may not have ended with a flourish, it’s easy to look back and see a successful career —  particularly for a 17th-round pick. Moreland retires as a lifetime .251/.318/.446 hitter in the regular season. He slugged 186 home runs, 219 doubles and nine triples along the way, while piling up 1,020 hits, 527 runs scored and 618 runs batted in. As previously mentioned, he won a Gold Glove and was named to the American League All-Star team. Between his solid arbitration numbers and a quartet of free-agent contracts, Moreland made about $36MM in salary over the course of his 12 seasons in the Majors.

And, while many players go the majority of their career without sniffing the postseason, Moreland’s teams reached the playoffs in an incredible eight of his 12 big league seasons. He added on another 150 plate appearances over the life of 52 postseason games, batting .259/.329/.422 during that time. Congratulations to Moreland on a fine career, and best wishes in whatever lies ahead in his post-playing days.

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