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Phillies Outright John McMillon

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The Phillies announced that they have selected right-handers Moisés Chace, Mick Abel and Jean Cabrera to their 40-man roster. Fellow righty John McMillon cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The 40-man roster count is now 39. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had the Chace move on on X earlier today.

Chace, 22 in June, was an international signing of the Orioles who was flipped to the Phillies a few months ago when the O’s acquired left-hander Gregory Soto. Chace has posted some big strikeout numbers but also given out his fair share of walks during his time in the minors. He has logged 230 1/3 innings thus far with a 4.42 earned run average, 31.6% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate.

The control is clearly a work in progress but the Phillies are understandably intrigued by the punchouts. Baseball America currently lists him the #15 prospect in the club’s system, heaping praise on his fastball while noting that he also has a slider, sweeper and a changeup in his repertoire.

He hasn’t yet reached Triple-A and only has four starts at the Double-A level, so he likely won’t be an immediate option for their rotation. However, the Phils didn’t want to take the risk that some other club would try to stash him on their roster next year, so they will protect him from Rule 5 selection today. If he can better harness his arsenal, he will creep into the rotation picture in time.

Currently, the starting mix includes Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez and Taijuan Walker. Suarez only has one year of club control remaining, which will open one spot. Walker has two years left on his contract but he’s been bumped from the rotation before and the Phils could look into moving him. Wheeler has three years left until he’s slated for free agency. Chace and other prospects like Andrew Painter will look to position themselves to step into those openings when they arrive.

Abel will also be in that mix. He was Philadelphia’s first-round pick from 2020, getting selected 15th overall. Since then, he has posted big strikeout numbers but also given out plenty of walks. He has 375 minor league innings under his belt at this point with a 4.78 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate. BA still likes him enough to rank him 12th in the system but he’ll obviously need to rein in his stuff if he’s to unlock his potential.

Cabrera, 23, was an international signing out of Venezuela. He has thrown 287 minor league innings thus far with a 3.76 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He will eventually be a part of the club’s rotation picture but is more of a long-term play. He has yet to reach Triple-A and has less than 30 innings at the Double-A level.

McMillon, 27 in January, was just claimed off waivers a couple of weeks ago. He has flashed some strikeout stuff but also poor control so far. In 130 2/3 innings in the minors, he has a 4.75 ERA, 35.3% strikeout rate but a 17.8% walk rate. Since this is his first career outright and he has less than three years of service time, he doesn’t have the right to elect free agency, therefore providing the Phils with some non-roster depth.

Royals Have Shown Interest In Alec Bohm, Taylor Ward

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The Royals have reportedly spoken to the Reds about a trade involving Kansas City right-hander Brady Singer and Cincinnati infielder Jonathan India, but that’s just one of multiple pursuits for Royals general manager J.J. Picollo, it seems. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that while no deals are necessarily close as of this moment, the Royals have also spoken to the Phillies about third baseman Alec Bohm and to the Angels about outfielder Taylor Ward. Like India, both Bohm and Ward are right-handed bats with multiple seasons of club control remaining.

Bohm, 28, was the No. 3 overall pick back in 2018 and has settled in as a regular at third base in Philadelphia over the past four-plus seasons. He’s coming off an uneven 2024 season in which he was one of the game’s most productive hitters in April but followed it with five months of effectively league-average production. On the whole, he turned in a .280/.332/.448 batting line (115 wRC+). Over the past three seasons, Bohm has combined for a .278/.325/.427 slash, demolishing left-handed pitching along the way but producing at a roughly average clip against fellow righties.

Given his excellent bat-to-ball skills — 14.2% strikeout rate in 2024; 15.7% dating back to 2022 — Bohm is a sensible target for a Royals club that places a heavy emphasis on putting the ball in play. Kansas City had baseball’s third-lowest strikeout rate in 2024, and since 2021 only five teams have posted a lower collective strikeout rate than the Royals. Plugging Bohm in as a regular at third base would provide an offensive upgrade over slick-fielding Maikel Garcia, who’s arguably better suited as a utilityman, given his defensive chops.

Speaking of glovework, however, Bohm is something of a mixed bag on that front. The Royals have typically prioritized plus defenders in addition to their affinity for contact-oriented bats. Bohm has typically graded out as a poor defender at the hot corner, but he posted career-best marks in Defensive Runs Saved (0) and Outs Above Average (4) in 2024. If the Royals believe those gains can be sustained, he’d make all the more sense as a trade target.

Bohm is controlled for another two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.1MM in his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility in 2025. It’s a generally reasonable rate that shouldn’t be cumbersome, even for a mid-level payroll club like Kansas City. While the Royals have in-house options at third base (Garcia) and at second base (Michael Massey), their interest in India and Bohm suggests a desire to add at least one bat to that infield mix. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and, of course, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. aren’t going to be displaced, leaving second base or third base as the likely positions to be upgraded.

For the Phillies, trading Bohm wouldn’t be so much about shedding salary or moving on from an unproductive player as it would reimagining an offense that hasn’t gotten them over the hump in recent postseason trips. Bohm has hit well with men on base in recent seasons (hence consecutive 97 RBI campaigns) but offers average power and stark platoon splits. The Phillies, meanwhile, don’t have ample pathways to pursuing upgrades in the lineup. First base (Bryce Harper), shortstop (Trea Turner), designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber), catcher (J.T. Realmuto) and right field (Nick Castellanos) are all manned by expensive veterans. Third base (Bohm), second base (Bryson Stott) and the other two outfield spots (combination of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Austin Hays) are the primary areas where president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski can look to bring about some form of change.

As for Ward, he’s an on-paper trade candidate for an Angels club that just finished dead last in the American League West. However, owner Arte Moreno and GM Perry Minasian have both expressed a desire to put forth a competitive club next winter. Ward, coming off a .246/.323/.426 (111 wRC+) showing in 2024 and a .259/.338/.440 line (118 wRC+) since 2021, is seemingly a part of that vision. Few outsiders see a path to contention for the ’25 Angels, but the team’s actions thus far — trading for Jorge Soler and signing Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks and Kevin Newman — suggest that they’re more focused on adding than on subtracting.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored last month, there’s a scenario where the Angels move Ward and still make an effort to compete. Ward could be flipped for rotation help — a potential match with the Royals — or traded for younger talent, with the Angels reallocating his would-be salary to other areas of need. Swartz projects Ward for a $9.2MM salary in 2025, which isn’t unreasonable for a player of his ability but also isn’t a raucous bargain. The Royals could plug Ward into left field, providing a stark upgrade over MJ Melendez, and pair him with defensive standout Kyle Isbel in center and rebound hopeful Hunter Renfroe in right field.

There’s no telling just yet how it’ll all shake out, but it seems Kansas City is quite active on the trade front at the moment. In addition to the bats they’ve targeted, the Royals have received interest from other clubs in each of the aforementioned Garcia, Singer, right-hander Alec Marsh and left-hander Kris Bubic. Picollo and his staff seemingly have plenty of potential concepts to explore, with the end goal of bolstering a currently top-heavy lineup a fairly obvious priority.

Phillies Plan To Meet With Juan Soto

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Juan Soto’s tour through free agency has thus far taken him to meetings with the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, with another meeting set for later today between Soto’s camp and Dodgers brass.  Another big-market team can be added to the mix, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman (via X) writes that the Phillies also intend to sit down with the free agent slugger, though a meeting isn’t yet known to be officially scheduled.

It comes as no shock that the Phils will at least check in on the market for another big name, as ownership and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t been shy about courting and signing superstar free agents.  Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are two of those stars, and it is fair to assume that Harper and Turner have exchanged a few texts and calls with their former Nationals teammate Soto about a reunion in Philadelphia.

Earlier this month, Phillies chairman John Middleton acknowledged that his team would be involved in the Soto sweepstakes to some degree, though Middleton was rather candid in his evaluation of Soto’s market.  Middleton felt “Soto wants to be in New York, and I don’t mind being a stalking horse.  At some point, if Dave and I get that feeling, we’ll probably say, ’You know what, we’re not going to win this’ because we’ve both been the stalking horse before.”

This hints that the Phillies aren’t planning quite as pitched a pursuit as other suitors in the race, though it costs the Phils nothing to meet with Soto and agent Scott Boras to access the situation.  Just in case other teams don’t meet Soto’s asking price or some other obstacle arises, Philadelphia could position itself as a fallback option that still checks a lot of boxes on Soto’s presumed wish list, as the Phillies are a consistent contender who should remain in the playoff hunt for some time to come.

Signing Soto to a record contract would further elevate the Phillies’ already-large payroll.  As per RosterResource, Philadelphia has an approximate $269MM payroll and a $288MM tax number for 2025 even before any significant offseason moves have been made, so adding Soto would send the Phillies far beyond the highest tax penalty tier of $301MM.  Since the Phillies have made luxury-tax payments in each of the last three seasons, they already face an increased price tag for any further overages, so signing Soto would essentially come at twice the cost of his actual salary.

Middleton might not necessarily mind at least a one-year splurge, since Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are free agents next winter, and thus represent some significant money coming off the Phillies’ books.  Ideally, the Phils would probably love to free up money this winter by moving at least one of Nick Castellanos or Taijuan Walker, though that is much easier said that done since both players have negligible trade value.

If Soto was signed and Castellanos stayed put, the two would handle the corner outfield positions in some fashion while Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas became a center field platoon.  This wouldn’t be an ideal arrangement from a glovework perspective, yet the Phillies probably wouldn’t mind a defensive step backwards if it meant putting Soto’s power bat into the lineup.

Phillies Sign Nicholas Padilla To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have signed right-hander Nicholas Padilla to a minor league deal, according to the transactions tracker on Padilla’s MLB.com player profile page. Padilla has updated his personal Instagram page to reflect his new team.

Padilla, 27, was a 13th-round pick by the Rays back in 2015 but struggled somewhat in the lower minors as a starter before eventually converting to relief in 2019. He pitched well at Single-A in 2019, his first full season out of the bullpen, with a 3.48 ERA and a 26.3% strikeout rate in 62 innings of work. That wound up being his last work in the Rays organization, however, as Padilla did not pitch during the cancelled minor league season in 2020 and was selected by the Cubs during the minor league phase of that year’s Rule 5 draft.

The right-hander kicked off his Cubs career at the High-A level in 2021 but pitched just 1 2/3 innings that year before being sidelined by injury. Once he was healthy again in 2022, he rapidly rose through the minor leagues. After dominating the High-A and Double-A levels early in the season, Padilla found himself promoted to Triple-A and pitched excellent in ten appearances with the Iowa Cubs. In those 14 2/3 innings of work, Padilla struck out 28.8% of opponents while posting a sterling 1.23 ERA. That was enough for the Cubs to give him a taste of big league action, as he was selected to the roster and made the 27th man during a doubleheader against the Cardinals.

That big league cup of coffee lasted just one game, however. Padilla pitched 1 2/3 innings of work for Chicago, where he surrendered one run on two hits and two walks while notching a strikeout, but was designated for assignment just two weeks later. That brought an end to his Cubs career as he was claimed off waivers by the crosstown White Sox, though he did not make an appearance for them down the stretch after being optioned to Triple-A Charlotte.

Padilla eventually made his debut on the south side in May of 2023, but rode the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors that year to make just three appearances in the big leagues. His performance in both the majors and minors was somewhat lackluster, as he posted a 5.79 ERA in 4 2/3 big league innings and a 5.52 ERA across 44 Triple-A appearances that year. He was outrighted off the club’s roster last November but remained with the club throughout the 2024 season. He posted a 2.92 ERA with a 30.3% strikeout rate in 37 innings of work this year but did not make it to the big league level and elected free agency earlier this offseason.

Now Padilla will join the fourth organization of his career in hopes of catching on with Philadelphia. For the Phillies, Padilla offers a depth arm for the club’s bullpen who is capable of pitching multiple innings in relief, a role that could be useful for them to have depth for given the departure of Spencer Turnbull in free agency earlier this month. Of course, the club’s up-and-coming young pitchers such as Andrew Painter, Seth Johnson, and Mick Abel could all contribute in that role, or perhaps even bump veteran Taijuan Walker out of the rotation following a difficult 2024 campaign and into that long relief role. Given that, Padilla would likely need to impress in Spring Training to snag a 40-man roster spot out of camp or wait for injuries to create space in the club’s bullpen throughout the 2025 campaign.

Phillies Hire Mark Lowy As Assistant Pitching Coach

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The Phillies announced the hiring of Mark Lowy as assistant pitching coach. He assumes the position vacated when Brian Kaplan was tabbed as Diamondbacks pitching coach yesterday.

Lowy moves onto an MLB staff for the first time. The 32-year-old had spent the ’24 season as Philadelphia’s lead pitching development analyst. Lowy has worked in the Phils’ player development department since 2021. After pitching at Gettysburg College, he worked at the independent training facility Cressey Sports Performance before joining the Phils.

Caleb Cotham is entering his fifth season as Philadelphia’s pitching coach. Lowy joins Cotham and bullpen coach Cesár Ramos on the pitching side of Rob Thomson’s staff.

Diamondbacks Hire Brian Kaplan As Pitching Coach

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The Diamondbacks announced that they have hired Brian Kaplan to be their new pitching coach. He will replace Brent Strom, who had been in that role for the previous three seasons. It was reported last month that the club would not be bringing the 76-year-old Strom back.

Kaplan has been with the Phillies since 2019. He spent his first three years with that club as integrative baseball performance consultant. For the three most recent seasons, he’s been the assistant pitching coach and director of pitching.

It’s impossible to separate player performance from the contributions of an individual coach, but for what it’s worth, the Phils have pitched well lately. Over the past three years, Philadelphia pitchers had a collective 3.95 earned run average, putting them 12th of the 30 major league clubs. Their 3.82 FIP is far kinder, putting them third, trailing only Atlanta and San Francisco. For that same stretch of time, Arizona had a 4.46 ERA and 4.26 FIP, both of those numbers putting them in the bottom third.

The Arizona pitching staff could get a shakeup between now and next season, as their starting rotation is drawing trade interest from other clubs around the league. However that plays out, Kaplan will see if he can help the Snakes find another gear when it comes to their pitching staff.

Hal Steinbrenner To Meet With Boras/Soto

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Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner is scheduled to fly to Southern California for an in-person meeting with Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras, report Mark W. Sanchez and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Post reports that the sit-down will occur in about a week a half — a few days after Boras and Soto welcome Mets owner Steve Cohen.

Boras suggested at this week’s GM Meetings that Soto plans to meet with the ownership group of every team that is pursuing him. That made it an inevitability that he’d sit down with each of Cohen and Steinbrenner. The Yankees and Mets are the two most obvious suitors for the market’s top free agent.

Plenty of teams would love to bring Soto into the fold. Heyman reported last week that at least 11 teams had reached out to Boras to express interest — the Giants, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Red Sox among them. Still, there’s speculation throughout the industry that Soto is likeliest to land with one of the New York teams. Boras has publicly stated that Soto is willing to sign anywhere. Saying otherwise wouldn’t do his market any favors, of course.

Phillies owner John Middleton opined today that the bidding may come down to the Yankees and Mets. “I’m afraid Juan Soto wants to be in New York, and I don’t mind being a stalking horse,” Middleton told Conor Smith of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “At some point, if [president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski] and I get that feeling, we’ll probably say, ‘You know what, we’re not going to win this’ because we’ve both been the stalking horse before. And if I were an agent, I would do it too. It’s perfectly good strategy. I mean, it’s smart. But at the end of the day, I just think he likes New York.“

Phillies Promote Preston Mattingly To General Manager

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The Phillies announced today that vice president and general manager Sam Fuld is pursuing his MBA at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He is slated to graduate in May of 2026, at which point he will take the title of president of business operations. Assistant general manager Preston Mattingly has been promoted to take the role of vice president and general manager.

Fuld, 42, played in the majors from 2007 to 2015. Given that he went to college at Stanford and majored in economics, he was viewed by many in the game as a future front office member. He got hired by the Phillies in 2017 with the title of major league player information coordinator. His name was then connected to various managerial openings over the years but he stuck with the Phils and was promoted to GM going into 2021. Dave Dombrowski had just been hired as the club’s president of baseball operations and Fuld would be second on the baseball decision-making pyramid.

The two sides have seemingly been happy with the relationship. In December of 2022, Fuld and the Phils signed an extension running through December 2025. In October of 2023, the Red Sox had some interest in Fuld replace chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, though Fuld declined to be interviewed for the opening.

Since Dombrowski is 68 years old, many considered Fuld a sort of protege or a president-in-waiting, but now it seems he is planning a shift. His focus will be away from the club for the next couple of years and he will return to direct his attention to the business side, rather than the baseball side.

Mattingly, 37, will now take over as Dombrowski’s second-in-command. The son of Don Mattingly, Preston played in the minors for a while but never got higher than High-A. He pivoted to non-playing roles, working with the Padres in the scouting department. In the fall of 2021, he was plucked away by the Phils, who hired him as director of player development.

He has clearly impressed the Phils, as he got promoted to assistant general manager just two years later, in November of 2023. After a year with that title, he has gotten bumped up again. He is still second on the club’s front office hierarchy, but it’s an impressive rise in a short time and it’s possible that he could eventually replace Dombrowski, depending on how things go. For now, given that there’s more than 30 years’ difference in age between the two, Mattingly will presumably be absorbing everything he can about the role from Dombrowski as he takes on a larger piece of the club’s front office makeup.

Phillies Exploring Outfield, Right-Handed Relief Markets

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The Phillies head into the offseason with a star-studded roster and substantial payroll obligation, though owner John Middleton has already expressed confidence that the 2025 payroll will increase. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has at multiple points hinted at potential trades rather than free agent pursuits, speaking of a need to be “open-minded” as he looks to augment a roster that’s been a perennial playoff club but fallen shy of a World Series win (or even a World Series appearance). The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reports that the Phils have signaled a desire to add an outfielder and at least one right-handed reliever.

As laid out in our Phillies Offseason Outlook, adding in the outfield is one of the most logical pursuits for a Phillies club that has established contributors at catcher (J.T. Realmuto), first base (Bryce Harper), second base (Bryson Stott), shortstop (Trea Turner), third base (Alec Bohm), right field (Nick Castellanos) and designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber). Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas offer options in the remaining two outfield spots, but the Phils aren’t likely to simply roll the same lineup back out in 2024 after another shorter-than-hoped season. Marsh and Rojas could form a platoon, as Marsh bats left-handed to the more defensively gifted Rojas’ right-handed bat. That’d open a path for one incoming outfielder, but Dombrowski’s repeated chorus of “open-minded” approaches to reshaping his offense have prompted natural speculation about trades.

From that standpoint, it’s hard to imagine deals involving Realmuto, Harper, Turner and Schwarber. All have been viewed as core pieces in Philadelphia. The Phillies would probably love to move on from the final two years and $40MM on Castellanos’ contract, but Castellanos is a poor defender who hasn’t hit nearly as well in Philadelphia as he did in his free-agent platform season with the Reds. The Phils would need to pay down a good portion of that contract and/or include a prospect to find a taker.

Bohm, Marsh, Stott and to a lesser extent Rojas are the big league position players who could more plausibly be flipped elsewhere as the Phillies try to reshape their identity. Gelb also lists lefty starter Ranger Suarez as a possibility. Their contractual statuses are as follows:

  • Suarez: Controlled through 2025 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.9MM in 2025 (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
  • Bohm: Controlled through 2026 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.1MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
  • Marsh: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
  • Stott: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3.5MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
  • Rojas: Controlled through 2029, pre-arbitration in 2025

Obviously, the valuation on each player will vary. Suarez would be a one-year rental for a club and would require the Phils — already in need of a starter and likely hoping to dump the remaining two years and $36MM on Taijuan Walker’s contract this offseason — to replace him. He posted a 3.46 ERA with strong strikeout (23.2%) and walk (6.5%) rates in 150 2/3 innings this season but also missed a month with a back injury and struggled from July through September. Plenty of teams would still love to plug him into their rotation.

Bohm is the most consistently productive but has the highest salary and lowest amount of club control remaining of the position players. He also cooled off considerably after a blistering start to the season. He was one of the game’s most productive hitters through early March (.360/.430/.576 in 142 plate appearances) before reverting to his usual brand of roughly average offense for the remainder of the season (.256/.302/.410 over his next 464 plate appearances). Bohm improved his glovework this year and hit righties better than usual but was still notably more productive against left-handed pitching.

Marsh can handle all three outfield spots but is best suited for left field. He’s never hit lefties well but is well above-average versus righties. He runs well and could probably pop 20 homers with a full season of at-bats, though that’d mean lesser rate stats and more plate appearances versus lefties. He’s hit 28 homers in 948 plate appearances across the past two seasons. Marsh is a useful part-time player, but his 31% strikeout rate since 2023 (and 32.8% career mark) is rather concerning, especially since he’s been platooned so often.

Stott is a plus defender and strong baserunner with 15-homer pop. He makes plenty of contact but has really only had one average season at the plate (2023), in addition to a pair of below-average campaigns during which he’s still been a solid overall contributor because of his glove and speed. If a team with budget problems and no concrete option at shortstop would view him as an outside-the-box candidate at short, his market could expand. Stott hasn’t graded as well there in 770 big league innings but has more than 2000 professional innings at short.

Rojas is an even more extreme case of the speed-and-defense skill set. He’s a plus center fielder with excellent speed but turned in just a .243/.279/.322 slash in 2024 (68 wRC+) and is a career .261/.298/.355 hitter (81 wRC+) in 527 big league plate appearances.

Dombrowski has publicly suggested that he needs to be open to trading “good players” in order to get talent in return. Speculatively speaking, Bohm feels like the most plausible fit, as he’s set to earn the most money, has the least club control remaining and plays a position (third base) where the free-agent market is quite thin this offseason. There could be paths to flipping Bohm for a bullpen arm, a back-of-the-rotation starter or an outfielder, and shedding his payroll could also free the Phillies to pursue other options at the hot corner or give them more money to address needs elsewhere on the roster.

Former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and longtime Phils beat writers Todd Zolecki and Jim Salisbury took a deep dive into the possibilities on the latest episode of their podcast. All three acknowledged that Dombrowski’s repeated phrases this offseason have not-so-quietly signaled a trade is likely. In addition to repeating the “open-minded” line on several occasions, Dombrowski has at least twice suggested the Phillies have enough star players on the roster. At his end-of-season press conference, Dombrowski said his club has “as many star players as about anybody in baseball” before adding that sometimes “the supporting cast” is where the biggest need sits.

Gelb notes in the previously referenced piece that Dombrowski doubled down on that thinking at this week’s GM Meetings. Asked if the Phils would be “big-game hunting” this winter, the Phils’ president replied: “Our ownership allows us to do a lot of things. But sometimes that’s not what you want. We have a lot of good star players on our team. So, read that as you would.”

Jeff Hoffman Garnering Interest As Starter

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Jeff Hoffman’s breakout as an elite reliever in the Phillies’ bullpen over the past two seasons played a huge role in the team’s success, but now that he’s a free agent it’s possible he’ll sign in a completely different role. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported within his ranking of the offseason’s top free agents that some clubs have considered pursuing Hoffman as a starting pitcher. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb backs that up in his own report, further pointing out that Hoffman is represented the same agency (CAA) that represented Reynaldo Lopez during his own switch from the bullpen to the rotation last winter.

Hoffman, 32 in January, has quietly been a dominant force in the Philadelphia bullpen since signing a minor league deal early in the 2023 season. Recency bias might conjure up the unflattering memory of the right-hander’s NLDS meltdown against the Mets, but from 2023-24, Hoffman compiled 118 2/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball while punching out a gaudy 33.4% of his opponents against a 7.4% walk rate. This postseason’s pair of regrettable outings against the Mets isn’t an ideal final memory, but Hoffman also snapped off six shutout innings of relief with eight strikeouts and no walks during the 2023 NLCS.

Excellent as Hoffman has been in relief, there’s reason to believe he could succeed in a lengthier role. First and foremost, the former No. 8 overall draft pick was a starter in his college days at East Carolina University and began his pro career in a rotation role. He started 11 big league games as recently as 2021 with Cincinnati and didn’t move to a full-time relief role until his 2022 season with the Reds. Hoffman has appeared in 361 professional games (majors and minors combined); 145 of them (40%) have been starts.

Beyond his familiarity with the role, Hoffman still uses a four-pitch repertoire even when working out of the bullpen. Many relievers who were once starters narrow their arsenal down to two pitches when they move to a short relief role. Hoffman still threw four pitches at least 8% of the time in 2024: a four-seamer (39%), slider (40.8%), splitter (12%) and sinker (8.2%). He averaged a fiery 96.6 mph on that four-seamer and 96.7 mph on his sinker. Those numbers would surely go down were Hoffman to begin working five, six and seven innings at a time, but even with reduced life on his fastballs he could still have average or better velocity. The league-average starting pitcher in 2024 sat 94.2 mph with his four-seamer, per Statcast.

Among those four pitches, Statcast has ranked them all as plus offerings over the past two seasons. Hoffman’s slider has easily been the best of the bunch, producing a huge 20.6% swinging-strike rate and limiting opponents to a .160/.201/.215 batting line when finishing off a plate appearance with that offering (dating back to Opening Day 2023). Again, whether he could sustain that level of dominance when facing opponents a second and third time through the order isn’t certain, but Hoffman’s wipeout slider has played an enormous role in his breakout since signing with the Phillies.

There are health and performance risks when taking a reliever and stretching him out. Hoffman hasn’t reached even 100 innings (majors and minors combined) in a season since 2019. Even among the reliever-to-starter experiments that panned out nicely in 2024, no one from the bunch worked what could be considered a full workload.

Garrett Crochet came the closest, compiling 146 innings across 32 starts, but the White Sox didn’t allow him to pitch more than four innings in a start after the calendar flipped to July. The aforementioned Lopez reached 135 2/3 innings but had a pair of IL stints owing to forearm and shoulder inflammation. Angels righty Jose Soriano went from 65 1/3 innings in 2023 to 113 in 2024 but was shut down for the season on Aug. 17 due to arm fatigue. Giants righty Jordan Hicks thrived in the rotation through late May before stumbling to an ERA over 6.00 in the early summer and being dropped back to the ’pen in mid-July. He finished at 109 2/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA. Seth Lugo is perhaps the best recent example of success in this transition. He jumped from 65 innings with the 2022 Mets to 146 innings with the 2023 Padres and 206 innings with this past season’s Royals.

Notably, McDaniel opines that Hoffman is still likelier to sign as a reliever. It’s the role in which he’s dominated over the past two seasons, and while he’s not the No. 1 reliever in this offseason’s free agent class — most publications, including MLBTR, assigned that honor to lefty Tanner Scott — Hoffman has a case to be considered the No. 2 or No. 3 bullpen arm on the open market this winter.

Gelb suggests Hoffman may prefer the relief role, though logically speaking, one would imagine he’d simply take the best offer possible. This is Hoffman’s first real crack at a notable MLB contract. He took home a signing bonus of just over $3MM in the draft but was non-tendered throughout his arbitration years and earned a relatively modest $2.2MM this past season in his final arb season. Even with that draft bonus, Hoffman’s career earnings fall shy of $8MM. He’ll presumably prioritize top dollar, regardless of location or role.

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