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Dallas Keuchel

Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer.  Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

Astros

The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel.  The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock.  The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case.  Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.

Dodgers

The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Nationals

The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.

Red Sox

The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.

The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s.  The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s.  The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin.  Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.

Six Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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The seven free agents who were issued qualifying offers by their former teams must decide by 4pm CT today whether or not to accept.  You can get the full rundown of how the qualifying offer system works here, but in brief — if a player takes the offer, they will return to their team on a one-year, $17.9MM contract for the 2019 season and can never again be issued a QO in any future trips to the free agent market.  If a player rejects the offer, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick should another club sign the player.  (The signing team will also have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some funds from their international signing bonus pool.)

Most free agents reject the QO in search of a richer, more long-term contract, and this is expected to be the case for most (though not all) of this year’s qualifying offer class.  The MLB Player’s Association has now announced all of these decisions, so they’re all official:

  • A.J. Pollock will enter free agency after turning down the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred.  He’ll be the top center fielder available and should draw interest from a fair number of teams, though his market demand is not yet clear.
  • Bryce Harper declined the Nationals’ qualifying offer, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). That’s utterly unsurprising, as the superstar is lining up nine-figure offers as we speak.
  • Craig Kimbrel is heading to the market rather than taking the one-year pact to stay with the Red Sox, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to tweet. The veteran closer is expected to command a much larger and lengthier contract in free agency.
  • Patrick Corbin won’t be accepting the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, as per Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  No surprises with this decision, as Corbin is set to receive the biggest contract of any free agent pitcher this winter.
  • Yasmani Grandal won’t accept the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter).  Even in the wake of another mediocre postseason performance, there was little doubt Grandal would turn down the QO, as he projects to earn a strong contract as the best catcher in the free agent market.
  • Dallas Keuchel has rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  The ground-ball specialist and 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner will hit the open market, and it remains to be seen if a return to Houston could be in the cards.  The Astros could also lose Charlie Morton in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu has accepted the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as we explored in detail earlier today.  Ryu becomes the sixth player to ever accept a QO, out of the 80 free agents who have been offered the deal over the last seven offseasons.

Reds Exploring Rotation Market

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As expected on the heels of public comments from owner Bob Castellini about his desire to enhance the starting rotation, the Reds are showing early interest in the starting pitching market, per both Jon Heyman of Fancred and Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both reports list top free-agent starter Patrick Corbin as a pitcher of interest, while Morosi specifically lists J.A. Happ and Heyman adds Dallas Keuchel to the pile. While any of that bunch would be a high-profile addition for the Reds, who’ve largely avoided free agency in recent seasons, Heyman notes that Cincinnati “will consider” top-of-the-market names.

Of course, considering a top-of-the-market arm and actually luring one to Cincinnati are two very different things. As three of the top starters on the market, the trio of Corbin, Keuchel and Happ will have no shortage of interest from contending clubs with clearer paths to a postseason berth. Beyond that, Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park is known as one of the game’s most hitter-friendly environments; to call it a tough sell to convince a top-tier starter to sign in a homer-conducive stadium with a team that lost 95 games in 2018 would be somewhat of an understatement.

[Related: MLBTR’s 2018-19 Free Agent Tracker]

It’s not clear how much money the Reds have to spend this offseason, though Castellini has recently promised a record payroll for the franchise. That certainly sounds encouraging for fans, though it should be noted that Cincinnati’s record payroll is $115MM, and they’re already projected by MLBTR’s Jason Martinez to head into 2019 with a near-$110MM payroll. Both Corbin and Keuchel are candidates to secure $20MM+ annual salaries, and Happ’s annual salary on a new contract figures to check in north of $12MM. Free-agent contracts could, of course, be backloaded — as could a potential offseason extension for second baseman Scooter Gennett. Doing so would lower the team’s projected commitments for the 2019 season and ramp up spending into 2020 and beyond, when Homer Bailey’s albatross deal will be off the books.

It remains difficult to envision the Reds winning a bidding war with larger-market clubs coming off winning seasons and playoff berths, but the very fact that they’re exploring this tier of free agency is a departure from recent offseasons and, accordingly, is of some note. Whether Castellini, president of baseball ops Dick Williams, GM Nick Krall and the rest of the organization’s leadership can persuade a top-notch starter to sign for the next several years, it seems likely that the Reds will be adding some external help to the rotation. Matt Harvey was reportedly a favorite of Castellini during his four-month run with the organization, so at the very least, the Reds could make an earnest run at retaining him and adding another established arm to a rotation whose only locks at present seem to be Anthony DeSclafani and Luis Castillo.

AL West Notes: Manaea, Keuchel, Felix

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There’s a bit of surprisingly good news for an Athletics team that has weathered a withering run of injuries to young pitchers. As MLB.com’s Jane Lee was among those to report (Twitter links), the Oakland organization says it was actually rather encouraged by the outcome of Sean Manaea’s shoulder procedure yesterday. Though the team likely won’t be able to rely on him as a contributor in 2019, it seems there’s some hope that Manaea could be ready to return late in the season. And the long-term outlook is generally good, which is particularly promising for a hurler who is only just reaching arbitration eligibility.

More from some other prominent AL West hurlers …

  • Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel is headed for free agency in less than two months, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to think about it. As Mark Berman of FOX 26 was among those to convey (video link on Twitter), the lefty says he isn’t interested in pondering his future, preferring instead to “enjoy this team and this year.” That’s surely a sensible position to take for a variety of reasons. The 30-year-old and his teammates are, after all, trying to ramp up for a second consecutive World Series run. And he can best increase his market options and earning power by continuing to throw the ball well. Through 196 2/3 solid frames this year, Keuchel carries a 3.71 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 along with a 53.3% groundball rate. That last figure, while still strong, is well under Keuchel’s established levels, though he is compensating in some regards by holding opposing hitters to less home runs (11.2% HR/FB, 0.78 HR/9) than he has typically.
  • The Mariners shouldn’t worry about the $27MM they owe Felix Hernandez in deciding his future with the club, veteran journalist Bob Dutton writes on the KLAY 1180 blog. Simply put, that’s a sunk cost. And Dutton says the M’s ought to ignore it — at least, perhaps, unless they are able to arrange some kind of trade scenario utilizing the contract. That’s not to say that the end ought to come before the start of the 2019 season, but Dutton argues it’s not a possibility the organization should shy from considering.

No Extension Talks Yet Between Astros, Dallas Keuchel

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There have yet to be any extension negotiations between the Astros and Dallas Keuchel, the ace left-hander told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters today.  If a long-term deal is struck between the two sides, Keuchel said that it would have to happen by Opening Day — like most players, Keuchel doesn’t want to create a potential distraction for himself and his team by having talks drag into the season.

Keuchel and the Astros did work out a $13.2MM salary for 2018, avoiding arbitration in the southpaw’s final year of arb eligibility.  He’ll hit free agency next winter going into his age-31 season and has already lined up some new representation, hiring the Boras Corporation last December.  While some high-profile Scott Boras clients (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gonzalez) have worked out major long-term extensions to stay with their teams, Boras generally advises his clients to test the open market, so it remains to be seen if a deal could be struck to keep Keuchel in Houston.  The lack of negotiations to this point shouldn’t be seen as a major red flag, as most teams usually wait until later in the spring to fully delve into extension talks with pending free agents.

After winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2015, Keuchel battled some injuries in both 2016 and 2017, posting a 3.79 ERA, 2.83 K/BB rate, 7.7 K/9 and a league-best 61.2% grounder rate over 313 2/3 IP in those two seasons.  That 3.79 ERA generally matched his ERA predictors in 2016-17, with the big swing in actual ERA (4.55 ERA in 2016, 2.90 ERA in 2017) likely due to a healthy difference in BABIP (.304 in 2016, .256 in 2017), which naturally has a big impact on a pitcher with so reliant on inducing ground balls.  His home run rate has steadily risen in each of the last three seasons, though Keuchel’s hard-hit ball rate also dropped back to his career average after a spike in 2016.

The Astros’ trades for Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole created some speculation that the team was guarding itself against Keuchel’s possible departure, bolstering the rotation with two front-of-the-rotation arms that are under contract through at least the 2019 season.  Talks between Keuchel and the Astros, as well as any other negotiations between teams and impending free agents, will be particularly interesting to monitor this spring in the wake of this offseason’s unusual lack of free agent activity.  It could be that players are more open to extensions if they’re worried about being stuck without teams next winter, particularly since next year’s market will several huge stars (such as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, or Josh Donaldson) sure to soak up many of the available dollars.

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Dallas Keuchel

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The Astros have settled with starter Dallas Keuchel, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle first tweeted. Keuchel will earn $13.2MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).

Notably, the Astros have not been able to work out agreements wit a few other important players. Outfielder George Springer, reliever Ken Giles, and starter Collin McHugh will file figures, Kaplan tweets, though of course it’s still possible they will settle before going to a hearing.

Keuchel, 30, posted a strong 2.90 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 on the year in 2017, though he was limited by injury to 145 2/3 innings. That tamped down on his earning power somewhat, though Keuchel still earns a healthy raise on his $9.15MM salary from 2017. He had been projected to earn $12.6MM by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz, but tops that figure by $600K.

As things stand, this’ll be Keuchel’s final season in Houston. He’ll hit the open market after the 2018 campaign unless the sides are able to work out a longer-term agreement at some point.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salarie

American League West

  • The Astros and Evan Gattis agreed to a $6.7MM deal for 2018, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). A free agent next season, Gattis lands within $100K of his $6.6MM projection. The club also has deals (for values unknown) with starters Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., and Brad Peacock, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets.
  • The Rangers agreed to a $1.05MM deal with infielder Jurickson Profar, tweets Murray. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram, meanwhile, tweets that lefty Jake Diekman landed a $2.7125MM deal and righty Keone Kela will earn $1.2MM. Profar had been projected at $1.1MM and is controllable another three seasons. Diekman, a free agent next winter, was projected at $2.8MM. And Kela, still controlled for three more years, matched his $1.2MM projection on the dot.
  • The Athletics and closer Blake Treinen agreed to a $2.15MM deal for next year, tweets Murray. The A’s can control Treinen for another three years. He was projected at $2.3MM. Shortstop Marcus Semien has settled for $3.125MM, Heyman tweets; his $3.2MM projection was nearly spot-on. Oakland has announced that it has avoided arbitration with Liam Hendriks and Josh Phegley as well, but their salaries have yet to be reported.
  • The Angels have a one-year, $7.3MM agreement in place with right-hander Garrett Richards, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). Richards, a free agent next offseason, tops his $7MM projection by a margin of $300K. The Halos have also avoided arb with first baseman C.J. Cron ($2.3MM) and left-hander Tyler Skaggs ($1.875MM), tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Cron’s total falls a ways shy of his $2.8MM projection, while Skaggs comes in just $25K south of his $1.9MM projection. Both are controllable through the 2020 season. Lastly, Murray tweets that Matt Shoemaker agreed to a $4.125MM deal. He’s controlled through 2020 and projected at $4.4MM. Fletcher also tweets that the club has agreed with righty J.C. Ramirez ($1.9MM salary vs. $2.6MM projection) and lefty Jose Alvarez ($1.05MM salary vs. $1.1MM projection). Finally, righty Cam Bedrosian has agreed at $1.1MM, Flecher tweets, which represents a payday close to his projection of $1.2MM.
  • Left-hander James Paxton will earn $4.9MM with the Mariners in 2018, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Murray tweets that the Mariners and David Phelps agreed to a $5.55MM deal. Paxton, controlled through 2020, projected to earn $5.6MM, while Phelps was pegged at $5.8MM. He’s a free agent next winter. Righty Erasmo Ramirez took a $4.2MM deal, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. That’s half a million shy of what the model suggested. Fellow right-hander Nick Vincent also has an agreement, but the terms aren’t yet known.

American League Central

  • New lefty Luis Avilan has agreed to a $2.45MM deal with the White Sox, Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune reports via Twitter. The recent trade acquisition came with a projected $2.3MM price tag. Fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon will receive $2.3MM, a bit of a bump over the $2MM he projected to receive. Also, utilityman Leury Garcia gets $1.175MM, which is just $25K short of his projected value.
  • The Royals and righty Nate Karns agreed to a $1.375MM deal for 2018, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports (on Twitter). That lands within $25K of his $1.4MM projection for the coming season. Kansas City controls Karns through 2020. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (via Twitter) that Kelvin Herrera will earn $7.9375MM in 2018, landing a bit shy of his $8.3MM projection. Herrera is a free agent next winter.
  • The Indians have a $5MM agreement with righty Danny Salazar, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. He had projected to earn just $200K more, this falls right in line with expectations. Cleveland also agreed with Lonnie Chisenhall on a $5.5875MM deal, tweets Nightengale. The third baseman-turned-outfielder, who was projected to earn $5.8MM, will be a free agent following the 2018 season.
  • Trevor May has a $650K agreement with the Twins for the 2018 season, according to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. May, who missed the entire season due to Tommy John surgery (and did some writing for MLBTR during his rehab process), had been projected at $600K. The Twins also agreed to a $1MM deal with infielder Ehire Adrianza, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Meanwhile, righty Ryan Pressly has agreed to a $1.6MM deal, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Both deals are identical matches with their projections. Adrianza has three years of team control remaining, while Pressly has two. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that outfielder Robbie Grossman settled at $2MM, leaving him $400K shy of his projection. Grossman is controlled for another three seasons.
  • Tigers third baseman/outfielder Nick Castellanos will earn $6.05MM, per Heyman (via Twitter). He had projected at a much heftier $7.6MM in his second-to-last season of arb eligibility. MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports (Twitter links) that the Tigers and right-handed reliever Alex Wilson settled at $1.925MM, while fellow righty Shane Greene will earn $1.95MM. Wilson was projected to earn $2.1MM, while Greene was at $1.7MM. Wilson is controlled through 2019, while Greene is under control through 2020.

American League East

  • The Yankees have knocked out some of their biggest arb cases, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). Shortstop Didi Gregorius receives $8.25MM and righty Sonny Gray checks in at $6.5MM. The former had projected to earn $9.0MM while the algorithm was just $100K high on the latter.Backstop Austin Romine will earn $1.1MM, Heyman also tweets, which is also $100K below the projection. Righty Adam Warren and the Yankees have a $3.315MM deal, per Murray (Twitter link). This is Warren’s final season of eligibility before hitting the open market next winter. He’d been projected at $3.1MM. Meanwhile, fellow right-hander Dellin Betances has agreed to a $5.1MM deal, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). That’s just $100K more than Betances had sought last year, when he took his case to a hearing that he ultimately lost. But it’s quite a bit more than the $4.4MM he projected to receive after a subpar season in which he played at a $3MM salary.
  • The Red Sox have agreed to pay $8.5MM to southpaw Drew Pomeranz, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). That’s short of the $9.1MM that had been projected after Pomeranz turned in a productive 2017 season. Boston and Jackie Bradley Jr. settled at $6.1MM, tweets Murray. That’s a bit north of the $5.9MM at which he’d been projected for the upcoming season. Bradley Jr., a Super Two player, has another three seasons of club control remaining. Nightengale tweets that righty Joe Kelly ($3.6MM projection) agreed to a $3.825MM deal. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez ($2.375MM salary vs. $2.7MM projection) and righty Brandon Workman ($835K salary vs. $900K projection) are two other Sox hurlers that have agreed to terms, Speier reports (Twitter links). On the position player side, catcher Sandy Leon falls a bit under his projection $1.95MM (via Speier, on Twitter) while utilityman Brock Holt just beats expectations at $2.225MM (per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, on Twitter). The team also agreed with shortstop Xander Bogaerts for $7.05MM, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets, which comes in a bit shy of his $7.6MM projection. Boston also announced agreement with backstop Christian Vazquez, who’ll earn $1.425MM, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). That’s just under the projection of $1.5MM.
  • The Blue Jays and righty Aaron Sanchez agreed to a $2.7MM deal for 2018, according to Nightengale (Twitter link). That crushes his $1.9MM projection, which was likely suppressed due Sanchez’s lack of innings (just 36) in 2017. He’s under Jays control through 2020. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, meanwhile, tweets that second baseman Devon Travis will make $1.45MM next year, falling a bit shy of his $1.7MM forecast. Other Toronto players agreeing to terms include Kevin Pillar ($3.25MM vs. $4.0MM projection) and Dominic Leone ($1.085MM vs. $1.2MM projection), MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm tweets.
  • The Rays and closer Alex Colome settled at $5.3M, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (on Twitter). He’d been projected at $5.5MM and is controllable for three more years. They also settled at $5.95MM with outfielder/DH Corey Dickerson ($6.4MM projection) and $4.5MM with infielder Brad Miller ($4.4MM projection), per Murray (all Twitter links). Steven Souza, according to Murray will earn $3.55MM, placing him right in line with his $3.6MM projection. Dickerson and Miller are controlled through 2019. Souza is controlled through 2020.

Dallas Keuchel Hires Scott Boras

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Set to enter his final year of team control in 2018, Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel has switched representation and is now a Scott Boras client, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reports (Twitter link).

Keuchel is projected to earn $12.6MM via arbitration next year, which could be his last season with the organization that used a seventh-round pick on him in 2009. Now 29, Keuchel blossomed into one of the game’s premier starters in 2014 and went on to earn the American League Cy Young Award the next season. Keuchel was a 200-plus-inning workhorse in each of those two seasons, but injuries limited him to a combined 313 2/3 frames from 2016-17.

While Keuchel struggled in 2016, he returned to his front-line ways last season (albeit over just 145 2/3 innings), with a 2.90 ERA, 7.72 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a major league-best 66.8 percent groundball rate. Keuchel’s regular-season output helped the Astros rack up 101 wins and roll to an AL West title, and he was also an instrumental member of the team’s first-ever championship-winning run in October. Keuchel was at his best in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, firing seven scoreless, 10-strikeout innings in a win over the Yankees, whom the Astros ultimately defeated in seven games.

In the midst of the Astros-Yankees series, Keuchel said that his hope is to remain in Houston for the long haul. It’s unclear whether there has been progress toward that goal, though, and it’s obvious that the Astros are going to have to fork over a significant contract in the coming year if they’re serious about extending Keuchel before he reaches the market next winter. As of now, Boras’ newest high-profile client is on track to be a key part of a class that could feature a slew of other stars, including fellow lefty Clayton Kershaw.

AL Notes: Keuchel, Twins, Avila, Rothschild, Athletics/Mariners Coaches

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Let’s check in on the latest from the American League:

  • Astros lefty Dallas Keuchel is currently sporting a walking boot after suffering a foot sprain, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes. Keuchel told TMZ Sports that he was banged up in the team’s World Series parade. Fortunately, the expectation at the moment is that the injury won’t prove to be much of a hindrance to Keuchel as he begins to prepare for the 2018 campaign.
  • Now that the Twins are out of the chase for Shohei Ohtani, the team could consider dealing some of its remaining international pool money, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. Minnesota has a relatively hefty $3.245MM of pool capacity to work with and could offer that up to teams looking to bolster their coffers for an Ohtani signing. Of course, there are also a variety of potential targets left on the international amateur market.
  • Tigers GM Al Avila chatted recently with David Laurila of Fangraphs, who details their discussion. While the club is obviously settling in for some bumps, Avila says there’s “already a nucleus there for our future” on the current roster. While there are still quite a few more pieces to be added, the club’s top baseball decisionmaker suggests he is fairly high on several of the team’s controllable players who are at or near the majors. He also frankly acknowledged that the Tigers’ two middle infielders — Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias — could be on the move this offseason. “Whether they’re going to be with us this year or not, we’ll see,” he said of the two veterans, each of whom will reach the open market next winter. There’s more in that post from Avila as well as a few other execs from around the league.
  • The Yankees announced that Larry Rothschild will indeed remain on board as the team’s pitching coach. That move was reported prior to the team’s decision to hire Aaron Boone as its next manager. The club still has a variety of other vacancies to fill on Boone’s staff.
  • In other coaching news, the Mariners announced that Brian DeLunas has been hired as the team’s bullpen coach. Per the club, DeLunas has most recently worked for private entities CSE Baseball and Premier Pitching and Performance (P3) and previously served as a pitching coach at a variety of levels, including at the University of Missouri. Meanwhile, the Athletics have added Al Pedrique as the club’s new first base coach while shifting Mike Aldrete to assistant hitting coach and Marcus Jensen to bullpen coach. Pedrique, a former big leaguer, was most recently the manager for the Yankees’ top affiliate and has previously coached in the majors for the Diamondbacks and Astros.

Astros Notes: Keuchel, Springer, Correa, Altuve

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The Astros’ enviable core of talent has already delivered one World Series title and set them up as contenders through at least next season.  The big-picture question facing Houston, however, will be which members of the roster are kept over the long term.  Here are some notes from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman on the state of any Astros contract extensions…

  • Dallas Keuchel is currently in the process of switching his representation.  The ace southpaw has one final year of arbitration eligibility (MLBTR projects him to earn $12.6MM) before hitting the open market as part of the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class.  The agency change “and timing could suggest he’s thinking about change,” Heyman writes, though Keuchel has been willing to discuss an extension with the Astros in the past.  Previous talks didn’t result in a long-term deal, however — Heyman notes that one of the team’s initial offers was similar to the early-career extensions signed by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale.
  • There haven’t been any extension talks with George Springer in “at least a year and a half.”  Houston also made an early-career extension offer to Springer, and then a significantly larger offer around two years ago.  Springer is in line for extra money as a Super Two player, as he earned $3.9MM in 2017 and is projected for a big raise up to $8.9MM in 2018.  Since the Astros have Springer under team control through the 2020 season, there isn’t any immediate need for an extension, unless the Astros want cost-certainty over his arb years or want to establish Springer as a long-term cornerstone player into the next decade.
  • Some interesting details are provided on Jose Altuve’s representation history, as the second baseman initially parted ways with Scott Boras in 2013 when Boras advised Altuve against signing an extension with the Astros.  Altuve went on to indeed sign that extension in July 2013, and Altuve’s subsequent rise to superstar status made that four-year, $12.5MM deal with two club option years into a major bargain.  (Houston exercised the first of those club options for 2018, netting Altuve another $6MM in guaranteed money.)  Altuve re-hired Boras as his agent in July 2016, which Heyman writes “could be taken as an indication he has a different mindset now that he has the security” of that initial contract.  Boras clients generally end up reaching free agency, though there have been enough high-profile exceptions to that trend (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez) that there is still hope at a longer-term deal to keep Altuve in Houston.
  • Carlos Correa seems perfectly willing to go year-to-year until he hits free agency.  The shortstop said last spring that he was at least willing to listen about a long-term deal but only until he hit his arbitration years; Greg Genske, Correa’s agent, made the bolder statement that Correa had no interest at all in an early-career extension.  Last April, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth explored the many forms a Correa extension could take, if the two sides did happen to come to an agreement.  Correa will become eligible for arbitration next offseason, so the team has one more year to work out a multi-year deal, assuming Correa’s previously-stated deadline still holds.
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