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Ian Happ

Cubs Notes: Happ, Leeper, Suzuki, Hughes

By Nick Deeds | April 4, 2023 at 6:07pm CDT

On the heels of the recent extension agreement between the Cubs and second baseman Nico Hoerner, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic checked in on the status of negotiations with the other Cubs hitter who found himself in the extension rumor mill this offseason: outfielder Ian Happ.

No extension got done ahead of Opening Day between Happ and the Cubs, through president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer noted that the sides has “really productive and really cordial” negotiations in the run up to the start of the season. While Hoyer refused to say negotiations had come to an end, he admitted to the difficulties of negotiations during the season, saying, “I know how hard it is to perform, in general, and having negotiations going on can be really difficult for some guys, so I respect the fact that guys won’t do it.”

Happ, who Mooney notes is not only the team’s representative to the MLBPA but also advised Hoerner during his extension negotiations with the Cubs, is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2023 season. He sports a career wRC+ of 115, and though his 120 mark from last season isn’t far off from that figure, he considerably changes his approach at the plate last season. Though he sacrificed some power, posting a career-low .169 ISO, he cut his strikeout rate down to just 23.2% from his career 30.8% mark headed into the 2022 season. Should Happ be able to replicate his 2022 performance this season, he figures to join the likes of Matt Chapman and Teoscar Hernandez as among the best bats on the free agent market this offseason not named Shohei Ohtani.

More from the north side of Chicago…

  • Cubs relief prospect Ben Leeper, 25, underwent surgery on his arm yesterday, as the player noted himself on his Instagram account. Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times notes that the procedure was Tommy John surgery, which will cause Leeper to miss not only the entire 2023 season but likely a significant portions of the 2024 season as well. Leeper, who signed with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent following the 2020 draft, posted a 3.11 ERA for the Cubs in 81 innings of work over the last two seasons split between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Leeper figured to make his MLB debut sometime this year, but this news will scuttle those plans until 2024 at the earliest. The Cubs still have several depth options in the minors for the big league bullpen this season, including Jeremiah Estrada, Brendon Little, and Rowan Wick.
  • According to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, outfielder Seiya Suzuki figures to get a pair of at-bats in a rehab game in Arizona today, though he will not play the field. Suzuki started the season on the injured list with an oblique strain and figures to join the big league club sometime this month. Suzuki is entering the second year of his five-year, $85MM contract with the club. In his MLB debut season last year, Suzuki slashed .262/.336/.443 in 446 plate appearances, good for a 116 wRC+. The right-handed slugger is regarded as one of the most important hitters in the lineup for a Cubs team looking to make a surprise run at contention after signing Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Jameson Taillon this offseason, and a healthy season from him will be key to the club’s fortunes this season.
  • Cubs reliever Brandon Hughes will begin throwing tomorrow, according to Bastian. A converted outfield prospect, Hughes impressed in 57 2/3 innings of work out of the Chicago bullpen last season, posting a 3.12 ERA, good for a 132 ERA+. While that top line run prevention number is impressive, and Hughes posted a solid 28.5% strikeout rate against an 8.8% walk rate, he also managed to leave a whopping 87.7% of runners on base last season, in large part thanks to his deflated .233 BABIP in spite of a groundball rate of just 33.8%. Given his problems with balls in the air, it’s no surprise that his FIP was a whopping 4.64 last year. Still, the Cubs figures to be a lock for the Cubs’ bullpen once he’s healthy, particularly given the club currently has no left-handers in its bullpen.
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Chicago Cubs Notes Ben Leeper Brandon Hughes Ian Happ Seiya Suzuki

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Cubs Notes: Bullpen, Happ, Hendricks

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2023 at 9:52am CDT

The Cubs remain open to adding a left-handed reliever, writes Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, though it’s not a lock that they’ll ultimately strike a deal. The Cubs are reluctant to surpass the $233MM luxury tax barrier, and an incentive-based deal for former All-Star Zack Britton could push them past that point if he’s healthy and effective. Chicago has been “monitoring” Mike Minor as well, per the report, though his struggles in recent seasons are an understandable red flag.

President of baseball ops Jed Hoyer said just last week that he “wouldn’t be shocked” to see another reliever come into camp, although the Cubs saw a pair of options come off the board over the weekend when Will Smith signed with the Rangers and Brad Hand inked a deal with the Rockies. Chicago currently sits with a projected $225MM luxury tax figure, placing them $8MM shy of penalization. Even if a deal with Britton or Minor doesn’t come to fruition, that doesn’t necessarily close the book on the Cubs making any kind of addition. Many non-roster veterans throughout the league have opt-out provisions they could trigger if told they’re not making their current organization’s roster, and there will surely be a number of arms being designated for assignment and/or placed on waivers later this month as teams set their Opening Day rosters.

More from Wrigley…

  • Left fielder Ian Happ is slated to reach free agency following the 2023 season and could be positioned as one of the top names on the market with another big season in 2023, but he tells Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that his hope is to remain with the Cubs long-term. “It would be weird to wear another jersey,” says Happ, whom the Cubs selected with the ninth overall draft pick back in 2015. “I would love to stay here and I would love to be a part of the next great Cubs team, but we’ll see.” In addition to Happ, next year’s outfield market is slated to include Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo and perhaps Michael Conforto, depending on his player option. In general, the 2023-24 class will be a lighter group than this past offseason, and that’s especially true now that Rafael Devers and Manny Machado have foregone trips to the open market in favor of extensions. Happ could do the same, of course, but the Cubs didn’t sign any of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant or Willson Contreras to extensions before they reached six years of service time (and thus qualified as free agents). Based on Happ’s comments, he’ll at least be open to it if they want to try to change that trend with him this spring.
  • Kyle Hendricks threw a bullpen session on Monday, writes Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. That marks the first full-strength, max-effort bullpen session for the veteran right-hander since last July, when he underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his shoulder. (Hendricks previously threw off a mound in late February and earlier this month but did not do so at full intensity.) The plan for Hendricks is to throw 10 bullpen sessions of this nature before he progresses to facing hitters. Hendricks will open the season on the 15-day injured list, and he’s not likely to complete that slate of 10 bullpen sessions until mid-April. From there, he’d need to throw live batting practice before progressing to a minor league rehab assignment, where he’d surely need multiple starts to build up. The 33-year-old Hendricks was one of the NL’s most durable and consistently effective starters from 2015-20, pitching to a 3.17 ERA over the life of 967 innings in that time. He’s stumbled to a 4.78 ERA in 48 starts over the past two seasons, however, as he’s become increasingly homer-prone. Hendricks is entering the final guaranteed season of a four-year, $55MM contract, though the Cubs hold a net $14.5MM decision on him for the 2024 campaign ($16MM option with a $1.5MM buyout).
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Chicago Cubs Notes Ian Happ Kyle Hendricks Mike Minor Zack Britton

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Cubs, Ian Happ Avoid Arbitration

By Nick Deeds | January 13, 2023 at 11:18pm CDT

The Cubs and outfielder Ian Happ came to an agreement on a $10.85MM salary for the 2023 season in order to avoid arbitration, per The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

Happ, 28, has spent his entire professional career as a member of the Cubs organization. He delivered a strong debut campaign in the 2017 season, posting a .253/.328/.514 slash line, good for a 114 wRC+ and some down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes while splitting time between second base and center field. The following season, Happ split time between all three outfield spots as well as third base but took a step back offensively, posting a slash line of just .233/.353/.408 (106 wRC+) in 142 games with a worrisome 36.1% strikeout rate.

Happ spent much of the 2019 season at Triple-A Iowa working on his game, and appeared to have made improvements by the time he came up in the second half: in 58 games that season, he slashed .264/.333/.564 (126 wRC+) while cutting his strikeout rate all the way down to 25.0%. Happ’s improved game carried into the shortened 2020 campaign, where he looked like a potential MVP candidate early in the season before an injury an early September caused him to slump down the stretch. Still, he managed a 132 wRC+ on the year after his hot start to the shortened season. That slump continued throughout the first half of the 2021 season as Happ slashed .193/.296/.330 in the first half, though a strong second half allowed him to push his overall season numbers back above league average.

After a difficult year in 2021, however, Happ was able to post the best full season of his career in 2022, and looked like a completely different hitter while doing it. He posted a career high in doubles, a career low strikeout rate, earned a gold glove after settling into a full-time role in left field rather than bouncing around the diamond as he had in the past, and even managed to correct his heavy platoon split from previous years, becoming a largely split neutral player. All this led to his first career All Star appearance in 2022 and allowed him to earn over $10MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, even narrowly beating out the $10.6MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz.

While Happ is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season, rumblings of an extension have permeated throughout the offseason, with both Happ and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer reportedly looking to start any potential extension talks before Spring Training, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Ian Happ

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MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners

By Anthony Franco | November 1, 2022 at 6:47pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.

Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.

Here are the full list of winners:

American League

Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)

Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)

Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)

Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)

Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)

Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)

Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection

Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)

National League

Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win

Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)

First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)

Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)

Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win

Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)

Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection

Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)

Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection

Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Andres Gimenez Brendan Donovan Brendan Rodgers Christian Walker DJ LeMahieu Dansby Swanson Ian Happ J.T. Realmuto Jeremy Pena Jose Trevino Kyle Tucker Max Fried Mookie Betts Myles Straw Nolan Arenado Ramon Urias Shane Bieber Steven Kwan Trent Grisham Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Ian Happ Transformed Himself In 2022

By Nick Deeds | October 13, 2022 at 10:27pm CDT

It’s been a difficult couple of years for Cubs fans, as the team finished 74-88 in 2022, just a few wins better than the 71-91 record they posted in a 2021 season that saw the team trade Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez, among other players, at the trade deadline. While the Cubs may have only made marginal improvements in the standings this year, there are some bright spots. Both Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki delivered in their first years in Cubs uniforms, and young players like Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, and Justin Steele all gave fans reason to hope with encouraging 2022 performances.

Leading the pack in that regard was Ian Happ, who had a transformational year in 2022 en route to his first All-Star selection. In 520 career games entering the 2022 season, Happ slashed .241/.338/.467 (113 wRC+) and had shown himself to be a primarily three true outcomes hitter. Among hitters from 2017-2021 with at least 1500 plate appearances, Happ’s 12% walk rate ranked 31st in the majors and his .226 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) ranked 51st. While those numbers on their own would put Happ in a similar conversation as the likes of Christian Yelich and Paul Goldschmidt, his 30.8% strikeout rate ranked 4th among qualifiers over that timeframe, severely hampering his overall production. This, combined with defensive assignments such as second base and center field where he looked overmatched, left Happ entering the 2022 season with just 6.9 career fWAR.

The 2022 season saw Happ play like a completely different player. He still takes his walks, though the 9% rate at which he did so in 2022 is reduced from his previous career norms, but the power output has changed dramatically. Formerly a player who could be relied upon for 20-25 home runs over the course of a full season, Happ hit just 17 home runs in 2022 despite having more plate appearances this season than any other in his career: a result of his career-worst 6.5% barrel rate.

What Happ gave up in power, he made up for in increased contact. His strikeout rate plummeted all the way to 23.2% in 2022, a remarkable improvement for a player who as recently as last year finished with the 10th-highest strikeout rate among qualified batters. This reduction in strikeouts came off the back of significantly reduced whiffs. Happ posted a contact rate of 75% this season, a significant improvement over his 67.6% career rate entering the 2022 season.

In addition to his improvement in terms of contact, Happ also saw much of his lost home run power convert to doubles power. While his low home run total in 2022 may seem concerning on the surface, Happ hit a whopping 42 doubles this season, tied for sixth-most in the majors and more than doubling his previous career high of 20. With fewer whiffs and more doubles, Happ’s .271/.342/.440 slash line in 2022, good for a wRC+ of 120, left him hitting better than he ever had in a full season. He was also more consistent as a hitter in 2022, able to handle both lefties and righties with equal effectiveness. While Happ has struggled against lefties for his career (posting just a .717 OPS against them in 584 plate appearances), in 2022 he actually posted slightly better numbers against lefties than righties for the first time in his career: a .788 OPS against lefties compared to a .780 OPS against righties.

Along with his growth at the plate, Happ was a positive contributor in the field for the first time in his career in 2022. A full-time shift to left field has done wonders for Happ’s defensive value; his +2 OAA in 2022 ranks fourth among qualified left fielders and trails only Adam Duvall in the NL. All of this growth saw Happ post a 3.5 fWAR in 2022, more than his totals for 2020 and 2021 combined.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Happ to make $10.6MM for 2023 in his final trip through arbitration. A free agent at the end of the 2023 season, Happ’s future is uncertain. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this week the team has laid the groundwork for extension discussions with some key players this offseason, although there’s no indication a deal with Happ (or any other player) is close. The Cubs have doled out just two contract extensions in the past four years: one to Kyle Hendricks during Spring Training in 2019, and one to David Bote just a few days later. Furthermore, for an organization with top prospects such as Brennen Davis, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Alexander Canario manning the outfield in the upper levels of the minors — not to mention Suzuki under contract to man right field through the 2026 season — an extension for a player who’s just shown his best position to be left field may not necessarily be prudent.

Given all this, it seems likely that Happ will be playing elsewhere sometime soon, whether that’s in time for Spring Training next year, after next year’s trade deadline, or after Happ tests free agency for the first time. One speculative fit would be with the crosstown White Sox, who have a collection of talented players but had one of the least productive outfield units in the majors in 2022. Furthermore, Happ’s switch-hitting capabilities would be an excellent change of pace for a club that relies on the righty bats of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, AJ Pollock, and Andrew Vaughn when it comes to manning the outfield. The Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Giants are among other teams who missed the postseason this year and could stand to make improvements to their outfield going forward. As for teams that made it into the postseason, the Braves may look to improve upon their internal left field options of Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna, while the Rays will need outfield help with the likes of David Peralta and Kevin Kiermaier likely hitting free agency this offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals Ian Happ

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Jed Hoyer Discusses Cubs’ Upcoming Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | October 12, 2022 at 4:25pm CDT

After six straight winning seasons from 2015 to 2020, which included five postseason berths and a World Series title, the Cubs have entered a rebuild and finished below .500 the past two years. As the fans hope for better days ahead, club chairman Tom Ricketts released a statement as the team switches gears from the season to the offseason.

“We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster,” Ricketts says, as relayed by Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. “As [president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer] has demonstrated, we will be driven by intelligent decision-making as we build a roster that can win games in the postseason – year in and year out.”

The word “active” in that statement is likely attractive to some, though it’s worth pointing that it can mean many different things. The Cubs were certainly active in free agency last year, giving out 12 deals to players who were on the open market. However, Seiya Suzuki was a special case since he was 27 years old at the time and coming over from playing in Japan. Marcus Stroman got a substantial deal, but on a shorter-than-expected three-year term with an opt out after year two. Apart from that, the deals for veterans were all on the modest side, both in terms of dollars and years.

Hoyer talked about spending money “intelligently” last year and Rickets echoed that in his statement. Hoyer, too, doubled down on his own comments from a year ago. “I think last year we talked a lot about intelligent spending, and I think we’ll certainly look to do that again.”

The shape of that spending remains to be seen, but the club should have some money to work with. The club had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM this year, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, a far cry from their previous high of $203MM in 2019. For next year, their commitments are currently around $109MM without factoring in arbitration-eligible players, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Looking at the arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, retaining the entire class would cost the Cubs around $25MM, though not all of those players will be tendered contracts.

Even if the club plans to roll out a similar payroll in 2023 as they did this year, they would have some room to work with, though it’s possible that number could go up. “If we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players, I have no doubt that we’ll have his blessing,” Hoyer said during a recent conference, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. “And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”

It’s been previously reported that the Cubs have interest in pursuing this winter’s crop of marquee free agent shortstops, though it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in that pursuit. Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner are slated for free agency, with Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa widely expected to join them by opting out of their respective contracts. Each of those four will require a significant investment, of course, with all of them likely to earn nine-figure deals. The Cubs haven’t given out a contract of that size since the Yu Darvish deal back in 2018, when they were much more firmly in win-now mode. If they don’t shop in the expensive aisle, there’s a significant drop to the next-best available shortstops, with Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus highlighting the second tier.

Of course, it’s also possible that the club uses its resources on players already on the roster, locking them up for future seasons via extension. Two players who could be candidates are outfielder Ian Happ and infielder Nico Hoerner. When asked about whether the club has talked to those players about new contracts, Hoyer tells Lee that they have “taken the first steps.”

In the case of Happ, he has just a single year of team control remaining and is projected to earn a salary of about $10.6MM next season. Due to his approaching free agency, he was often mentioned in trade rumors this summer but ended up sticking with the Cubs beyond the deadline. 2022 was his sixth season in the big leagues, with Happ posting above-average offense in each of them. This year, his .271/.342/.440 batting line was 20% above league average, by measure of wRC+. His work in the outfield was also graded positively, leading to him producing 3.5 wins above replacement this year, in the eyes of FanGraphs. He just turned 28 and will therefore be heading into free agency shortly after his 29th birthday, meaning the Cubs would likely have to cut a decent check to get him to forgo that opportunity.

In Hoerner’s case, he’s just 25 and heading into his first arbitration season, projected to get a salary of $2.2MM next year. Given his extra control, it’s more likely that he will be playing for the next competitive Cubs team and could theoretically be a higher priority for the team. He had a very nice all-around season here in 2022, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 20 bases. He hit .281/.327/.410 for a wRC+ of 106 and also provided excellent shortstop defense, leading to a tally of 4.0 fWAR for the year.

Of course, if the Cubs succeed in convincing a free agent shortstop to join the club, they would have to figure out how to get that player into the lineup next to Hoerner. It seems the most likely path would be Hoerner moving over to second base, a position he has played before. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic relays that Hoyer doesn’t see a problem with moving Hoerner to the other side of the bag, especially with the new anti-shift rules that go into place next year. With less shifting, it’s possible teams will look to have an extra level of athleticism at the keystone to provide greater range, something that is less necessary with shifting.

“We have total confidence in Nico’s ability to play shortstop,” Hoyer says. “But, yes, the way the game is trending, athleticism in the middle infield will make a big difference.” It doesn’t seem like Hoerner would put up a fight if the club asked him to make the switch. “He actually gets mad when you talk about him, which is pretty amazing,” Hoyer said. “He wants to talk about the Cubs. He wants to talk about winning. He wants to talk about the culture. So it was pretty easy with him. As long as you’re talking about winning and what can make us great, Nico’s totally on board.”

There are still many directions the offseason can go for Chicago, and there are reasons to be slightly more optimistic than a year ago. Despite another losing season, the club finished strong, going 33-28 from the start of August until the end of the schedule. “We certainly want next season to look a lot more like our second half than our first half,” Hoyer says, per Lee. “And if it does, we do have a chance to be in the race and play meaningful games throughout the entire season. And, hopefully, that means competing in October.” How aggressive they are in bolstering their roster for next year will be determined in the months to come.

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Cubs Aren’t Trading Willson Contreras, Ian Happ

By Mark Polishuk | August 2, 2022 at 5:08pm CDT

After months of speculation, the Cubs will pass the trade deadline without moving two of their biggest trade chips.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that both catcher Willson Contreras and outfielder Ian Happ will both be staying put in Wrigleyville.

It hasn’t exactly been a quiet deadline for the Cubs, as Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Chris Martin, and Scott Effross have all been shipped out of town in the last few days.  But beyond this bullpen exodus, it seems that Chicago will be hanging onto its two most heavily-sought after position players, despite many rumors about other teams’ interest.

Clubs such as the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Padres had been linked to Happ, who is hitting .279/.360/.436 over 408 plate appearances and was just named to his first All-Star team.  While Happ’s production has been somewhat inconsistent over his six MLB seasons, he has been a solidly above-average hitter overall, and also emerged as capable defensive player in center field.

Since Happ is arbitration-controlled through the 2023 season, there may not have been quite the urgency on Chicago’s part to move the 27-year-old unless another team stepped forward with a knockout offer.  The Cubs continue to give mixed signals about their near-term and longer-term plans to contend, yet since their most recent moves have trended towards more retooling, it is probably safe to guess that Happ will continue to feature in trade rumors throughout the offseason and up until next year’s deadline if Chicago isn’t in contention.

The lack of movement on Contreras, however, is harder to figure.  The longtime Cubs catcher is a free agent after the season, and since the team aggressively moved several pending free agents (i.e. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez) at last year’s deadline, it seemed like a sure bet that Contreras would follow suit this season.  If anything, it may have been a little surprising that Contreras wasn’t moved last year as well, except the idea that the Cubs wanted to keep the catcher and sign him to a contract extension also didn’t come to fruition.

The Mets, Rays, Padres, and Astros were all linked to Contreras in recent rumors, though Houston instead obtained Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox as a catching upgrade.  Tampa Bay acquired Christian Bethancourt earlier in July, and now he’ll stand as the Rays’ only catcher trade of deadline season.

As for other suitors, it could be that the Mets, Padres, and the ever-popular “mystery teams” simply didn’t step forward with an offer that met the Cubs’ liking.  San Diego will continue with the respectable Austin Nola/Jorge Alfaro tandem at catcher, and the smaller-scale depth addition of Cam Gallagher from the Royals.  (Plus, it could simply be most of the Padres’ trade attention was focused on larger matters like the Juan Soto blockbuster).  New York ended making only relatively minor upgrades instead of any big swings at the deadline, and the team will now have to continue to hope that James McCann can get back on track.

Another factor to consider is the recent lack of an agreement between the league and the players’ union about the implementation of an international player draft.  Since that deal wasn’t reached, the old qualifying offer system will remain in place throughout the life of the current collective bargaining agreement, and thus the Cubs would get a compensatory draft pick back for Contreras if he rejected a QO and signed elsewhere.  That means that essentially, other teams had to offer something that the Cubs preferred to that extra pick.

Even with all of this in mind, it is still surprising that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer couldn’t find any kind of acceptable trade match for Contreras, either in the days leading up to the deadline or even back during the offseason.  Considering the lack of extension talks, it would seem unlikely that the two sides will match up on a new deal before Contreras hits the open market, or after he becomes a free agent and has 29 other teams to bid on his services.  Contreras has been open about the stress and uncertainty he has faced with all of this nonstop trade buzz, but while that noise will quiet, some awkwardness may remain over what could be his last two months in a Cubs uniform.

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Ian Happ Rumors: Deadline Day

By Tim Dierkes | August 2, 2022 at 8:39am CDT

The last time we checked in on Cubs outfielder Ian Happ, it was when ESPN’s Jeff Passan revealed last Friday that the team is “likely to trade him.”  Happ, 28 in August, has a 122 wRC+ on the season.  He’s got about $2.4MM remaining on his contract this year, and will be eligible for arbitration for 2023.  If the Cubs want to trade the 2015 first-rounder prior to the offseason, they’ve got fewer than nine hours to get it done.  Here’s the latest:

  • The Dodgers have looked at Happ, though apparently as a backup plan if they can’t land Juan Soto, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Rookie James Outman has garnered the Dodgers’ last couple of left field starts to great success, and Chris Taylor’s rehab assignment from a foot fracture begins tonight.
  • Last week, Robert Murray of Fansided noted that Happ had been “connected” to the Padres and Blue Jays.  The Padres are firmly in the Soto bidding, so Happ may serve as a backup plan for them as well.  The Jays’ outfield generally sets up as Lourdes Gurriel Jr., George Springer, and Teoscar Hernandez, with Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer providing backup.  Toronto tends to rest Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the DH spot when it’s not occupied by Alejandro Kirk.  While the Jays don’t seem to have a ton of room for Happ, MLB’s Jon Morosi notes that his ability to cover center field while Springer deals with a modest elbow injury is key.
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Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres Toronto Blue Jays Ian Happ

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Cubs’ Ian Happ Drawing Significant Trade Interest

By Steve Adams | July 26, 2022 at 8:44am CDT

Willson Contreras generates the most public speculation among Cubs trade candidates with the deadline a week away, but teammate outfielder Ian Happ has emerged as one of the more in-demand names on the summer market, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. That’s particularly notable when paired with Happ’s recent acknowledgment that the team has not approached him about a contract extension (link via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic).

Happ is “likely” to be traded within the next week, Passan writes, adding that some interested parties have approached the Cubs about package deals that would see one of Contreras or Happ traded alongside a reliever such as David Robertson or Mychal Givens. (Passan doesn’t specifically mention righty Chris Martin, though as a pending free agent, he’s surely available as well.) More interestingly, Dennis Lin of The Athletic wrote over the weekend that the Padres have expressed interest in adding both Contreras and Happ in the same trade, though the ask on that would surely be immense.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored Happ’s career-best production earlier this month, observing that notable gains in Happ’s plate discipline profile have generated the strongest and most sustainable results of his six big league seasons. Happ has always drawn walks at a high clip, but his penchant for strikeouts has often suppressed his overall value at the plate.

Most notably, as Anthony wrote at the time, Happ has wildly improved upon his contact rates in 2022. His 62.6% contact rate on pitches off the plate is up ten full percentage points from 2021, and his 83.7% contact rate in pitches in the zone is up from 79.9% a year ago. Happ’s 75.9% overall contact rate is less than one percentage point below the league average. That may not sound all that impressive, but pair roughly average contact skills with Happ’s high-end walk rate (10.9%), above-average power and above-average speed, and Happ looks like an increasingly well-rounded player. The switch-hitting Happ has also posted substantially better numbers as a right-handed hitter this season than in years past, and while part of that is due to a sky-high .463 BABIP as a righty, he’s also cut his strikeout rate against left-handers by about six percentage points this year (down to 25.1%).

Defensively, opinions on Happ are going to be a bit more mixed. After bouncing around the diamond more earlier in his career, he’s settled in as Chicago’s left fielder this season, which is his best position. He’s logged 706 of his 718 defensive frames in left this season, with the other 12 coming via a few brief cameos in center. He’s been a scratch defender in 2022, per Statcast’s Outs Above Average, although both Defensive Runs Saved (+5) and Ultimate Zone Rating (+3.9) feel he’s been above-average.

It’s easy enough to see why Happ’s overall skill set would make him an appealing trade chip. He’s at least a solid defender in left — and a balanced switch-hitter with aa .282/.367/.445 batting line in 387 trips to the plate so far this season. His home run power hasn’t been up to previous levels — his nine long balls put him shy of pace to match last year’s career-high 25 — but Happ has already connected on a career-best 24 doubles and tacked on a couple of triples for good measure. Of even greater appeal, however, is the fact that Happ is controlled for an additional season beyond the current campaign.

Assuming Happ is indeed traded, whichever club acquires him can pencil him into left field both for the current postseason push and the entirety of the 2023 season. He’s earning $6.9MM this season and shouldn’t command much more than $10MM in 2023, which makes him affordable for the majority of clubs around the league. Happ also won’t even turn 28 until next month, meaning the former No. 9 overall draft pick is squarely in the typical prime of a hitter’s career.

Whether the Cubs will ultimately pursue the package offers reported by Passan or instead attempt to engineer standalone trades for all of their chips, of course, is entirely dependent on the strength of offers they receive. However, virtually every contender is looking to deepen its bullpen, so it’s only natural to think that a team with interest in Happ would take a two-birds-with-one-stone approach. Each of Robertson, Givens and Martin will be a free agent at season’s end, and each is in the midst of a fine season.

Robertson has drawn the most attention among Cubs relievers in early speculation — as is often the case for those in the vaunted closer role — thanks in large part to a pristine 1.83 ERA and 14 saves on the season. He’s earning a $3.5MM base salary, though he’s on pace to reach all of his incentives (including a $100K trade bonus), which would bring his total salary up to $5.1MM. Still, for a pitcher with his track record and a 31.4% strikeout rate, that’s a reasonable price to pay — even if this year’s 11.9% walk rate is a bit concerning.

The 32-year-old Givens is also earning $3.5MM, but his contract contains $1.25MM of incentives and a $1.5MM buyout on next year’s mutual option, so his ultimate price tag will fall more in the $5.5MM to $6MM range. He’s pitched a 2.79 ERA with a 29.1% strikeout rate and a similarly elevated 11.5% walk rate. Like Robertson, Givens has a long track record as a solid late-inning reliever with roots in the AL East (Orioles).

As for the 36-year-old Martin, his ERA has swelled to 4.50 after yielding five runs through his past 3 2/3 innings, but even looking past that recent slump, he’s touting a brilliant 37-to-4 K/BB ratio in 30 innings so far in 2022. He’s on a $2.5MM salary and probably won’t get the 60 appearances he needs to max out his incentives, but he’s likely to unlock either $400K or $500K of the available bonuses on his incentive-laden contract before becoming a free agent at season’s end.

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The Cubs’ Second All-Star Trade Candidate

By Anthony Franco | July 18, 2022 at 8:42pm CDT

Much of the focus in Wrigleyville over the next two weeks will be on Willson Contreras. That’s perfectly understandable. A career-long member of the organization, Contreras is set to don a Cubs uniform in the All-Star Game for the third (and very likely final) time tomorrow. He’s both one of the few remaining ties to the 2016 World Series-winning team and perhaps the game’s top trade candidate. An impending free agent whom the club hasn’t seemingly made much effort to sign long-term, he’s a virtual lock to be dealt by the August 2 deadline.

Contreras’ trade candidacy is so self-explanatory it has been discussed extensively for months. Yet the future of the other Cub headed to the Midsummer Classic will be equally fascinating to follow. Ian Happ is a first-time All-Star, a deserved National League representative amidst another productive year at the plate. The switch-hitting Happ carries a .274/.364/.443 line across 368 plate appearances through the season’s unofficial first half. By measure of wRC+, that production is 25 percentage points better than league average.

Happ had fared similarly in two of the past three years. He posted respective wRC+ marks of 126 and 130 in 2019 and 2020. Both those showings were in limited playing time, however. Happ spent a good chunk of the former season in Triple-A, where his .242/.364/.432 line was less impressive than his .264/.333/.564 work in a smaller MLB sample. The 2020 campaign, of course, was truncated because of the pandemic. Last year was Happ’s first full season of major league action since 2018, and he put together a .226/.323/.434 showing that was only marginally above average.

With Happ having held onto his 2019-20 rate production over a three-plus month stretch, one could argue he’s already had a career year in 2022. Perhaps even more importantly, the 27-year-old (28 next month) is getting to those results in a manner that appears more sustainable than he has in prior seasons. Happ’s game has featured quite a bit of swing-and-miss throughout his big league career, but he’s made notable strides in that department. He’s made contact on just under 76% of his swings this year. That’s four points higher than he has in any previous season, and he’s pulled just shy of league average in that regard. He’s paired that with a slightly more aggressive approach, particularly with regards to attacking pitches inside the strike zone.

Even slightly below-average bat-to-ball skills is workable for Happ, who does most other things well offensively. He’s always had solid strike zone awareness, and this season’s 11.4% walk rate is right in line with his career mark. That patience has consistently been paired with above-average power, with Happ posting higher than typical rates of hard contact in each of his six big league seasons. Traditionally, Happ’s power impact has skewed towards his time in the left-handed batters box. That hasn’t been the case this year, though, as he’s collected eight extra-base hits in 85 plate appearances as a right-handed hitter.

A switch-hitter with above-average patience and power and serviceable contact skills, Happ’s a well-rounded and valuable offensive player. He’s not elite, but he’s certainly a good hitter who’d upgrade plenty of teams’ corner outfield situations. Happ is miscast in center field (and on the infield, where he’d logged sporadic innings earlier in his career), but he’s a solid defender in left field. Statcast has pegged him as roughly league average at that position, while Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have him a touch above. Left field is far down the defensive spectrum, but Happ’s work at the plate has been plenty sufficient to clear the loftier bar necessary to be a productive regular.

There haven’t yet been substantive reports linking any contenders with Happ, but it stands to reason there have already been clubs in touch with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office. The Red Sox, Braves, Twins and Dodgers are among the contenders that have gotten average or worse production out of their left fielders this year. Minnesota and L.A. are currently without their top preferred options (Trevor Larnach and Chris Taylor, respectively) due to injury.

The Blue Jays, Yankees and Padres have gotten solid work from left field but are looking for ways to upgrade their outfields generally. That’s perhaps also true of the Rays, who have Randy Arozarena in left but are expected to be without each of Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramírez for the foreseeable future. Other clubs like the Mariners, Mets and Guardians have solutions in left field but could look into adding another productive bat with question marks at designated hitter. That’s a broad range of possibilities Hoyer and his staff should be able to explore if they make Happ available this summer.

How motivated will the Cubs be to deal him? Trading Happ isn’t as urgent as moving Contreras will be. The latter is headed to the open market two months from now, while Happ is controllable for 2023 via arbitration. He’s playing this season on a $6.85MM salary, around $2.7MM of which will remain owed after the deadline. He’s sure to land a decent arbitration raise — likely putting next year’s tally in the $10-12MM range — before his first trip to the open market. That’s not an insignificant sum, but it’s still a strong bargain for a player of his caliber. Accordingly, the return package the Cubs receive for Happ is unlikely to ever be better than it will be this summer, when the club can market two playoff pushes to contenders. He’s young enough the Cubs could kick around extension possibilities, but there’s been no public indication that’s on the table.

One way or another, it feels like the appropriate time for the front office to pick a longer-term course of action regarding the former ninth overall pick. Merely holding onto Happ via arbitration doesn’t align with the club’s contention window. The Cubs may not intend to punt on 2023 entirely, but it’s hard to see a path to competitiveness. The team is 22 games under .500 at this season’s All-Star Break, and there are enough holes both at the bottom of the lineup and in the starting rotation they’re unlikely to be completely plugged in one offseason. 2024 feels like the more realistic target for a return to respectability, and Happ is slated to be a free agent by that point.

Unless the Cubs are particularly confident about the chances of getting a long-term deal done with his representatives at WME Baseball, the front office should actively explore the trade market over the next couple weeks. The possibility of dealing him next offseason means Hoyer and his staff don’t need to simply accept the top offer presented, but this feels like the best opportunity for the Cubs to land a marquee return. Happ’s remaining window of club control probably makes him a more valuable trade asset than Contreras, so dealing him may be the organization’s clearest path towards adding another Top 100-caliber prospect to the farm system.

Seeing Contreras and Happ depart in rapid succession would be disappointing to some members of the fanbase, but the organization’s massive sell-off last summer firmly signified this is the direction they’re headed. Plenty more change will be afoot in the next couple weeks, with a host of relievers and the franchise catcher all but assured to be moved. Happ very well might join that group in departing the North Side for a near-term contender as the Cubs continue to restock the minor leagues as part of an ongoing retooling effort.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals Ian Happ

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