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Ian Happ

Central Notes: Happ, Merrifield, Cabrera

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With the Cubs currently sitting on a record of 27-44, speculation has naturally started building about players nearing free agency that could be moved at the August 2 trade deadline. One such player who will be coveted by rival teams is Ian Happ, though Happ doesn’t seem to be bothered by being the subject of rumors. “At some point, you get numb to it,” Happ tells Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “Everybody’s been through it at certain points. It’s something that you just kind of get numb to and understand it’s part of the job.”

Happ’s case will be an interesting one to watch this year, as there are arguments for holding onto him as well as arguments for trading him. He’s slated to reach free agency after the 2023 season, making him a fairly logical trade candidate for a rebuilding team that isn’t likely to be competitive within that time frame. He’s also having the best season of his career, meaning the club might want to put him on the block while his value is at high tide. He’s hitting .288/.385/.475 on the year for a wRC+ of 138. Combined with solid outfield defense, he’s produced 2.2 fWAR on the year, which is already a career high, even with more than half the season still to be played.

However, the Cubs could also extend Happ and keep him around for the next competitive window. Happ seems open to that idea, saying “I’ve always been very clear, too, that I like playing here. This is a great place to play. I would love to be a part of competitive groups in years to come here.”

Some other notes from Central teams…

  • The Royals are 26-43 and will have to decide which of their players will be moved as part of their deadline strategy. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that a Whit Merrifield trade is being given more consideration than in previous years. Merrifield has been the subject of trade rumors for a long time, as the club has been mired in a years-long rebuild for essentially his entire big league career. The Royals went 81-81 in 2016, Merrifield’s debut season, but have been below .500 ever since. Despite that, the club has eschewed all trade overtures in past seasons. It would certainly come as a shock if the team were to suddenly change course and agree to a deal now, as Merrifield is having easily the worst season of his career. Through 69 games, he’s hitting .230/.277/.314 for a wRC+ of 66. To spurn offers for years and then suddenly relent when his value is at a low ebb would be a very surprising turn of events. Perhaps the club is concerned that the 33-year-old won’t be able to turn things around, though there’s time for him to do so. His contract runs through next year, with a club option for 2024.
  • The Cardinals announced that left-hander Genesis Cabrera is going on the injured list. No designation for his injury was given, implying that Cabrera has gone on the COVID-related IL. Righty Jake Woodford was recalled to take his place on the active roster. This is the second time COVID has hit the St. Louis bullpen in recent days, as T.J. McFarland also was sidelined earlier this week. Notably, both Cabrera and McFarland are southpaws, leaving the club short-handed on that side of their bullpen. There are two lefties now remaining, although Packy Naughton is more of a long relief option. That leaves Zack Thompson and his 14 2/3 innings of MLB experience as the club’s primary left-handed reliever. Cabrera has become a key asset for the club in recent years, notching 28 holds last year and 10 so far this year. He has a 2.27 ERA here in 2022, despite generating fewer strikeouts. His .193 BABIP and 93.1% strand rate are surely giving him an unsustainable boost, but he’s also lowered his walk rate to 9.3%. That’s still above league average, but much improved over his 12.1% career mark.

NL Central Notes: Happ, Cardinals, Sims, Solano, Castillo, Minor

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Cubs left fielder Ian Happ was removed from today’s 9-0 win over the Brewers after being hit in the left kneecap by a Trevor Gott pitch during the seventh inning.  X-rays were negative, as Happ told NBC Sports Chicago’s Tim Stebbins and other reporters after the game.  “It’s going to be pretty stiff [Sunday], I’m sure, but right now it’s not too bad,” Happ said.  It would seem as if Happ is questionable for tomorrow’s lineup, and since the Cubs don’t play on Monday, Happ has some more time to heal up and receive further treatment to determine if an IL trip could be necessary.

The Cubs/Brewers series has thus far seen seven batters hit by pitches over two games, which has some a frequent occurrence in recent meetings between the two division rivals.  The result was a skirmish that saw both benches and bullpens empty after Andrew McCutchen was hit by a Keegan Thompson pitch in the eighth inning, but ultimately nothing but harsh words were exchanged.

More from the NL Central…

  • Busch Stadium is known as a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and the Cardinals have added to this built-in run suppression by creating a tremendous defensive roster.  As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch examines, the club has embraced this to the point of deciding against moving in the walls at their ballpark, even after commissioning a study to examine the possible impact.  “We started to think we may have an edge here with this particular configuration,” chairman Bill DeWitt III said.  “In theory, a bigger ballpark, more balls in play, a defense that catches anything — why don’t we put this on ice and see how things develop?  We have an elite defense and we’re contemplating doing something that might minimize the impact of that defense.  Let’s not.”  Goold’s piece breaks down some of the findings of the study, with the Cards looking at how potential alterations to any of the dimensions would affect everything from fan experience to on-field performance.
  • Reds manager David Bell provided reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon) with several updates on injured players over the last two days.  Lucas Sims is on pace to head to Triple-A this week after throwing a live BP session at the team’s extended Spring Training camp, and Bell set April 20 or 22 as the target dates for Sims’ likely return.  Donovan Solano is out with a left hamstring injury, but Boone said Solano has been doing some running drills and even took some swings during some simulated game sessions.
  • Mike Minor and Luis Castillo both began the season on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and while Castillo was initially thought to have the quicker return of the two, Minor has now seemingly moved ahead after throwing a 35-pitch simulated game on Friday.  Minor could now be ready for Triple-A work or at least another sim game, while Castillo still has to get a second bullpen session under his belt.  In terms of projections, the Reds are now aiming for Castillo to be back by late April, while Minor could make his debut closer to the middle of the month.

Cubs Place Adbert Alzolay On 60-Day Injured List

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MARCH 18: The Cubs announced that Alzolay is going on the 60-day injured list. The move clears 40-man roster for Seiya Suzuki.

MARCH 14: Cubs righty Adbert Alzolay, who had been penciled into a rotation spot for 2022, will start the season on the IL due to shoulder tightness, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters today.  Hoyer noted that it will not be a short stint on the IL.  Unsurprisingly, then, Hoyer said the club is interested in adding more pitching.  Overall, Hoyer said, “Certainly we’re going to add a lot more players.”

At present, the Cubs’ rotation projects as Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks, Wade Miley, Alec Mills, and Justin Steele.  All of the top free agent starting pitchers are off the board already, but plenty of back of the rotation hurlers remain available.  Alzolay made 21 starts for the Cubs in 2021, posting a 5.16 ERA in that role.

Ian Happ, set to start the season as the Cubs’ regular left fielder, had a “clean out” elbow procedure in the offseason but is expected to be 100% soon, Hoyer told reporters.

The Cubs recently added shortstop Andrelton Simmons, and Hoyer commented, “We’re happy with our middle infield.”  Nick Madrigal and Nico Hoerner will also figure prominently into that mix.

Trade Candidate: Ian Happ

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After many months of rumors and speculation, the Cubs finally pulled the ripcord on their rebuild in earnest at last year’s trade deadline. In quick succession, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Jake Marisnick and Trevor Williams were all given opportunities elsewhere.

Now the roster mostly consists of new faces, a combination of players with limited big league resumes and more experienced players acquired since the offseason began. That leaves five-year veteran Ian Happ as one of the longer tenured Cubs remaining, despite having just turned 27 in August. Assuming there are no drastic changes to the service time structure in the upcoming CBA, the Cubs can keep Happ around for two more seasons via arbitration. That makes him an interesting trade chip if the Cubs don’t return to being competitive in the next two years.

How hard they intend to try to compete in the short-term is an open question at this point. After such an aggressive selloff, it stands to reason that they will take some time executing the standard rebuild playbook of focusing on loading the farm system with prospects and using the big league team to evaluate younger talent. Going into the offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said that the club would be “really active in free agency” but “spend money intelligently.” Since then, the club has been more active than some expected, adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. However, the team still has flaws. It’s just one metric, but FanGraphs’ Depth Charts currently peg the Cubs 27th in the league in projected WAR for 2022.

The team could certainly still pursue upgrades, as their projected $114MM payroll, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, would be almost $90MM shy of their franchise record, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, they have mostly eschewed lengthy commitments recently, meaning that their books open up even more after 2023. Willson Contreras and Wade Miley are set to reach free agency after this year, Jason Heyward after 2023. Kyle Hendricks and Yan Gomes have two guaranteed years remaining, with the Cubs holding club options over both for 2024. That means that the only guarantees for 2024 are the $21MM for the last year of Marcus Stroman’s deal, which he has the ability to opt out of, and the last guaranteed year of David Bote’s extension, which is just $5.5MM. (There are also opt-outs of $1MM and $500K on Bote’s options for 2025 and 2026.)

Perhaps the most logical course for the Cubs from here is to spend two years figuring out which young players are part of the future and then using those empty books to decide how to spend money building around them. They could then spend wildly on their areas of greatest need, as the Tigers and Rangers have done this offseason.

Coming out of the lockout, it’s widely expected that there will be a mad flurry of transactions, perhaps rivalling or even surpassing the frenzy that occurred prior to the lockout. The Cubs would be able to be patient, as Happ would likely have just as much appeal at the trade deadline. He can fit on just about any club’s roster as he has versatility in more ways than one. For starters, he’s a switch hitter, although he does have a significant platoon split. (Career wRC+ of 121 from the left side but just 85 from the right.) Secondly, he’s can play most positions on the diamond. Although he’s played more outfield than infield in the past couple seasons, he still saw time at first, second and third base in 2021. The last time he played more than 20 games in a season at any one infield position was the 44 games he played at second base back in 2017, but teams still love a player with versatility, even if they hope not to need it.

Even if most teams don’t view Happ as a realistic infield target, he will still have appeal for his bat. In each of his five seasons, he’s posted above-average numbers by measure of wRC+, despite also racking up strikeouts at a rate above the league average. His career line thus far is .241/.338/.467, wRC+ of 112, strikeout rate of 30.8%. In 2021, he slumped slightly to a line of .226/.323/.434, but that was still good enough for a wRC+ of 103. There’s also room for optimism when one considers that Happ spent time on the IL in May for a rib contusion and improved as he distanced himself from that. His wRC+ in June was 32, followed by a 59 in July, 124 in August and 167 in September/October. He’s also projected to make a salary of $6.5MM this year through arbitration, as per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, which is affordable for even the lighter spending teams in the league.

As mentioned, there’s no hurry to move Happ. He has two years of club control and maybe the Cubs can even surprise some people by surpassing expectations in the meantime. After all, it’s widely expected that the new CBA will include an expanded postseason field of some kind. Even hovering around .500 might be good enough to sneak in. Or if not, he could be flipped for younger players with the potential to be part of the next great Cubs team. Whichever way it works out, Happ could be useful to the team, whether he continues wearing their uniform or not.

Cubs Activate Ian Happ, Designate Ildemaro Vargas

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The Cubs have activated outfielder Ian Happ from the 10-day injured list and designated infielder Ildemaro Vargas for assignment, Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets.

Happ is returning after spending the minimum amount of time on the IL with a rib contusion. Before that, Happ got off to an uncharacteristically slow start with the bat, evidenced by a .167/.307/.250 line with two home runs in 109 plate appearances. Happ’s strikeout, groundball and fly ball rates have all trended in the wrong direction, which helps explain his poor production, though he has dealt with some bad fortune. The 26-year-old’s .245 batting average on balls in play is easily a career low, and he’s well above average in such Statcast categories as hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity.

This is the second time since the end of March that the Cubs have designated Vargas, who has appeared in nine of their games and taken 24 trips to the plate this season. The 29-year-old has batted .143/.250/.238 with no home runs.

Cubs Designate Kyle Ryan, Select Nick Martini, Place Ian Happ On 10-Day IL

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The Cubs announced a series of roster moves Friday, most notably designating lefty Kyle Ryan for assignment and placing center fielder Ian Happ on the 10-day injured list due to a rib contusion stemming from his recent collision with infielder Nico Hoerner. To take their spots on the roster, the Cubs recalled righty Jason Adam and selected the contract of outfielder Nick Martini from Triple-A Iowa.

Ryan, 29, has been the Cubs’ most oft-used reliever since 2019, although he opened the 2021 season at the team’s alternate training site. He was called back up recently and yielded a run on five hits and two walks with two strikeouts in 2 2/3 innings. Since latching on with the Cubs in 2019, the former Tigers southpaw carries a 3.86 ERA, a 20.8 percent strikeout rate, a 10.9 percent walk rate and a hefty 55.7 percent ground-ball rate. He hasn’t dominated lefties in a way that so many southpaw relievers do (.240/.319/.368) but he also hasn’t been a total liability against righties either (.264/.347/.408).

Happ and Hoerner had a scary collision when the two converged on a pop fly to shallow center field. Hoerner made the catch but tumbled over Happ and kicked him squarely in the ribs in the process. Thankfully, both avoided a major injury, but Happ now joins Hoerner (forearm strain) on the 10-day injured list in the days since the collision. Perhaps the downtime will give the struggling Happ some time to reset; in 102 plate appearances this year he’s limped to a .167/.307/.250 batting line.

The 30-year-old Martini will be making his Cubs debut whenever he first gets into a game. The former Padres and A’s outfielder inked a minor league deal with Chicago over the winter. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots and is known for a patient approach at the plate, evidenced by a career .269/.372/.380 batting line in 87 MLB games (288 plate appearances). Martini isn’t teeming with power, but he has an excellent track record in the upper minors, specifically Triple-A: .305/.401/.435 in more than 1400 plate appearances.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Reds, Phillies

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The Cubs and Reds put on a real barn-burner today in Cincinnati. Cubs’ centerfielder Ian Happ tied the game 12-12 with a three-run homer in the top of the eighth inning – the tenth deep shot of the game. Unfortunately, in the bottom half of the inning, Happ collided with second baseman Nico Hoerner on a short pop fly. Hoerner made the catch, but Happ struggled to get to his feet and was ultimately carted off the field. He appeared cognizant, but a concussion could be in play for Happ, who had three hits in his best offensive performance of the year. With Happ out, the Cubs turned to Willson Contreras, who himself was only available in case of an emergency. Contreras, however, was the last position player on the bench, so he came in to catch while Tony Wolters moved to second, Hoerner moved to left, and Kris Bryant replaced Happ in center. While we await an update on Happ, let’s get some roster updates from around the game…

  • The Reds claimed Ashton Goudeau off waivers from the Rockies and designated Phillip Diehl for assignment, the team announced. The 6’6″ righty made his Major League debut for the Rockies in 2020, tossing 8 1/3 innings across four appearances. The 28-year-old has yet to make an appearance this season. Diehl also pitched for the Rockies last season. The Reds claimed him off waivers on April 14th, but he did not appear in a game for the Reds.
  • The Phillies have reinstated Roman Quinn from the COVID-related injured list, returning Mickey Moniak to the alternate site, per the team. Moniak, still just 22 years old, has just a .120/.214/240 batting line in 28 plate appearances this season. The speedy Quinn has also struggled at the plate, slashing .083/.250/.111 in 44 plate appearances this season.

2021 Arbitration Hearing Results & Post-Deadline Agreements

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January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to officially submit salary figures for the 2021, and by the time the day was done, only 13 players didn’t reach agreement on a contract.  The majority of teams now adhere to the “file or trial” strategy, meaning that no further negotiations on a one-year deal will take place between the arbitration deadline and a hearing with an arbiter, which theoretically puts pressure on players to get a deal done if they are wary about taking their case to a third party.

“File and trial” tactics didn’t stop the Astros and Carlos Correa from agreeing to a one-year deal for just the 2021 season, which is also Correa’s last year before gaining free agent eligibility.  We also saw three multi-year deals reached, all from the greater Los Angeles area — the Dodgers reached two-year deals with Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes, while the Angels inked a two-year pact with Shohei Ohtani.

This left nine unresolved cases that went all the way to a hearing (held over Zoom) between an arbiter, the player, his representative(s), and front office personnel arguing the team’s side.  The teams won five of the nine hearings, continuing the very narrow edge teams have held over players in arb cases in recent years — over the last 99 arbitration hearings, teams hold a 51-48 record over players.

For the full list of every salary for every arbitration-eligible player this offseason, check out the MLB Trade Rumors Arb Tracker.  Sticking to the 13 players with unresolved cases from January 15, here’s the rundown…

Avoided Arbitration, One-Year Contract

Avoided Arbitration, Multi-Year Contract

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Player

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Team

Ian Happ Wins Arbitration Hearing

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Ian Happ won his arbitration hearing over the Cubs and will earn the $4.1MM salary for which he and his reps at Excel Sports filed rather than the team’s proposed $3.25MM figure, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter).

Happ, 26, has played all three outfield spots, second base, third base and a little bit of first base through his first four seasons as a Cub, batting a combined .248/.344/.481 along the way. He’s connected on 62 homers, 54 doubles and seven triples through 1262 plate appearances, adding in 19 steals on the bases (albeit with a questionable success rate, as he’s also been caught 11 times).

Happ succeeded in spite of one of the game’s highest strikeout rates in his first two seasons, but he’s lowered that mark from 33.8 percent in 2017-18 to a more tolerable 26.4 percent in 2019-20. He could certainly still stand to further pare back that punchout rate, but for a player with his well above-average power and walk rates, the strikeouts are a little easier to overlook.

Over the past two seasons, Happ has made some offensive gains at the plate, hitting at a combined .260/.350/.530 through a relatively small sample of 387 plate appearances. That’s good for 30 percent better than the league average overall, by measure of wRC+, and if it’s a sign of things to come then Happ ought to be positioned quite nicely from a financial standpoint. His subsequent raises next winter and in the 2022-23 offseason will now be based upon a higher starting point thanks to today’s ruling. He’ll be a free agent following the 2023 season.

With Happ’s salary now set in stone, the Cubs’ 2021 payroll is set at about $157.8MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. It’s possible that they’ll make another late addition or two — the Cubs inked Brandon Workman to a $1MM deal earlier in the week — but substantial changes appear unlikely. President of baseball ops Jed Hoyer stated early in the week that he’s not engaged in any trade talks and generally expects the current core group to remain intact come Opening Day.

Camp Battles: Cubs’ Second Base Mix

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The Cubs started seven different players at second base in 2019 with generally uninspiring results. Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist and Tony Kemp are now gone. Let’s take a look at the options who remain to fill that spot on the north side in 2020.

  • Jason Kipnis: Chicago signed Kipnis to a minor-league deal after Cleveland cut bait last offseason. The former star has slumped to a .236/.305/.403 (85 wRC+) mark over the past three seasons, especially struggling against left-handed pitching. His defensive metrics are mixed, with UZR more bullish than DRS or Statcast. At 32 (33 in April), the Illinois native probably won’t be returning to his 2015-16 heights, but there’s hope he can offer reasonable production on both sides of the ball. With that in mind, Kipnis looks to be a good bet to make the Opening Day roster, Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported today.
  • David Bote: Bote got the lion’s share of playing time at second last season, although he’s capable of bouncing around the infield. The 26-year-old has put up league average numbers over his first 566 plate appearances (.257/.362/.422). There’s a lot of swing-and-miss to his game, though, and his career 11.1% walk rate seems a bit inflated by some opportunities hitting in front of the pitcher. The organization clearly believes in him, having extended him through 2024 (with a pair of club options) last spring.
  • Nico Hoerner: The Cubs’ top prospect, Hoerner made it up for a September cameo. A polished hitter coming out of Stanford, he always profiled as a fast riser, but the club may prefer to slow things down a bit. Mediocre results over his first 82 MLB plate appearances certainly won’t sour the organization on him, but Hoerner only logged 294 plate appearances in the high minors, all in Double-A. There’s a case to be made for giving him some seasoning at Triple-A.
  • Daniel Descalso: A late-career swing change seemingly reinvigorated Descalso’s career in Arizona in 2018. The Cubs bought in, signing him to a two-year deal last offseason. Unfortunately, he fell completely flat, hitting just .173/.271/.250 (42 wRC+) in 194 plate appearances. 2018 now looks like an outlier rather than a breakout, as Descalso’s been at least ten percentage points below average at the plate in every other season of his career.
  • Robel García: García, 26, is a phenomenal story, having parlayed a stint in Italy to a return to affiliated ball (and eventually his MLB debut) in 2019. He obliterated the minors to the tune of a .284/.369/.586 line in 388 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. That came with a 30.9% strikeout rate, though, and the whiffs became an even bigger issue in his MLB audition. García struck out in 35 of his 80 MLB plate appearances with an unpalatable 20.9% swinging strike rate. That he’s even in consideration for the job is remarkable considering where he was a year ago; he’ll have to alleviate the swing-and-miss to be a viable everyday option, though.

Also in camp as non-roster invitees are Corban Joseph, Carlos Asuaje and Hernán Pérez. Joseph has intrigued teams recently with quality minor-league numbers, but he’s a 31-year-old with 94 MLB plate appearances to his name. Asuaje, meanwhile, is coming off a disappointing tenure in the KBO, while Pérez has hovered around replacement-level over parts of eight seasons as a utility option. Each would seem to need an eye-opening spring to earn the job. Ditto prospect Trent Giambrone, who is also in camp but was left unprotected for (and went undrafted in) the Rule V draft.

Ian Happ could have added another name to the mix. However, the coaching staff considers Happ more of an option in center field, Mooney reports. Thus, it seems likeliest one of the names above picks up the slack at the keystone in 2020.

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