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Twins More Seriously Listening To Offers On Rental Players

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The Twins have stumbled out of the gate with a 1-3 record in the second half and are beginning to more seriously weigh trades of their short-term players, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Utilityman Willi Castro, outfielder Harrison Bader and left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe are the team’s three most appealing free agents, but the Twins also have righty Chris Paddack, first baseman Ty France and backup catcher Christian Vazquez set to hit the market at season’s end.

[Related: Minnesota Twins Trade Deadline Outlook]

Of course, more of the focus for contending clubs will be on Minnesota’s more controllable and higher-profile talents. Top starter Joe Ryan and high-leverage relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax will draw widespread interest. Heyman notes that Twins brass won’t turn interested clubs away without hearing them out, but the they would understandably need to be bowled over to consider moving anyone from that group. All three pitchers are controlled for two additional seasons beyond the current campaign.

Among the rental players, Castro fits the broadest number of teams, given his versatility. The 28-year-old switch-hitter is enjoying a nice season at the plate, hitting .258/.350/.435 with 10 homers, 14 doubles, two triples, eight steals (ten attempts) and a career-best 10% walk rate. He’s been productive from both sides of the dish, has above-average speed (74th percentile, per Statcast) and is capable of playing second base, shortstop, third base and the outfield (although defensive metrics have panned his work at shortstop and in center). Castro is earning $6.4MM, making him affordable for virtually any contender.

Bader’s defensive excellence and bounceback year at the plate ought to garner plenty of interest as well. He’s hitting .249/.330/.438 as Minnesota’s primary left fielder, but he’s only in left because of Byron Buxton’s presence in center. Bader still grades out brilliantly at any outfield slot, and while he’s typically showed notable platoon splits, he’s posted nearly identical numbers against righties and lefties alike in 2025. By measure of wRC+, Bader has been 15% better than average at the plate. He’s sporting his highest walk rate in a 162-game season since 2019 and hitting for more power than he has since 2021 (12 home runs, 11 doubles, .189 ISO in 282 plate appearances). He’s on a one-year, $6.25MM contract with a mutual option that obviously won’t be exercised by both parties.

Coulombe has been quietly terrific. He missed three weeks earlier in the season with a forearm strain but has shown no ill effects. His 0.65 ERA in 27 2/3 frames is the best in baseball among the 433 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 20 innings, and Coulombe has fanned 26.9% of his opponents against a 6.5% walk rate. He doesn’t throw hard (90.2 mph average fastball) and isn’t going to make it the whole season without surrendering a home run — he’s currently yet to do so — but there aren’t many better left-handed options on the market. He’s playing on a one-year, $3MM contract.

The rest of the Twins’ rental options have some track record but are in the midst of poor seasons. Paddack still has good command, but he’s sitting on a 5.14 ERA and career-worst 16.4% strikeout rate. He had a nice run from mid-April to mid-June, but Paddack has never really held up for a whole season under a starter’s workload and has been hit hard since mid-June. He looked impressive in relief when he came back from Tommy John surgery in 2023 and is making a relatively affordable $7.5MM this season, so perhaps a club might roll the dice on him as a bullpen option. Otherwise, his appeal as a fifth starter is fairly limited.

France had a nice start but has seen his role decrease and is now mired in an awful 5-for-41 slump that’s dropped his previously solid batting line to .245/.309/.348. He’s not striking out and has played a strong first base, but he’s a bat-first player who’s in his third straight down year at the plate. France’s $1MM salary is low enough that another club could well roll the dice on adding him to its bench, but he’s not going to net the Twins anything of substance in a trade.

The 34-year-old Vazquez is in the final season of a three-year, $30MM contract that hasn’t gone as hoped. He was always signed to be a glove-first catcher and remains a plus defender, but his once-passable offense has cratered and he’s been thoroughly outplayed by Ryan Jeffers, who has long since claimed the starting role in Minnesota. Vazquez’s .182/.249/.260 batting line in 159 plate appearances is among the least-productive in baseball. He’s still such a good defender that another club might take him on if the Twins ate most of the money he’s owed, but like France and Paddack, he’s not going to net a prospect of any real note.

There are other players the Twins could conceivably market. Right-handed reliever Justin Topa has pitched decently on a $1MM salary and has a cheap $2MM club option for the 2026 season. The aforementioned Jeffers is in his penultimate season of club control, but the Twins lack an heir apparent in the upper minors and starting catchers rarely change teams midseason. Trevor Larnach has been a roughly league-average bat at DH and in the outfield corners and is controlled two more seasons beyond the current one. Righty Brock Stewart has been excellent since the Twins signed him to a minor league deal a couple years back (2.44 ERA, 32.6 K% in 73 2/3 innings since 2022), but he’s frequently been injured. He’s being paid $870K and has two seasons of club control remaining. He could be a nice bullpen piece in future Twins seasons, but if a team is willing to make a decent offer, there could be some temptation to sell high as well.

One player clearly not going anywhere is Buxton. The 2025 All-Star is signed for three more seasons, has a full no-trade clause, and during last week’s All-Star break called himself a “Minnesota Twin for the rest of my life.”

Twins Not Currently Discussing Joe Ryan In Trade Talks

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The Twins are among nearly a dozen bubble teams around MLB with just over two weeks until the trade deadline. Minnesota sits two games under .500 and four games out of the American League’s final Wild Card spot. They’re tied with the Angels and have two teams (the Rays and Rangers) between them and the Mariners, who currently hold the AL’s last playoff position.

Robert Murray of FanSided reports that the Twins have yet to have serious conversations about the possibility of selling. Specifically, Murray adds that Minnesota hasn’t had discussions with other clubs about All-Star starter Joe Ryan. That doesn’t mean they’d necessarily consider Ryan untouchable if things go poorly over the next couple weeks, but they’re evidently not currently focused on moving him. Jon Morosi of MLB Network noted last week that the Twins would need to be completely out of the playoff race and be blown away by an offer to deal Ryan.

President of baseball operations Derek Falvey told SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson last week that he anticipated that most bubble teams would take right up to the July 31 deadline to determine their directions. Falvey broadly acknowledged that other teams have interest in Minnesota’s controllable pitching talent. At the same time, he expressed optimism that the team would play better coming out of the All-Star Break than they did in the first half and didn’t sound eager to sell. The Twins will resume play this weekend with a very winnable series at Coors Field. They’ll then head to L.A. to take on the Dodgers before home sets against the Nationals and Red Sox that’ll take them to the deadline.

If they struggle and pivot to selling, the Twins would obviously have no trouble drumming up interest in Ryan. The 29-year-old has steadily improved over his four-plus year MLB career. He owns a personal-best 2.72 earned run average while striking out more than 28% of opposing hitters in 19 appearances. Every team could accommodate his $3MM salary, and he remains controllable via arbitration for another two seasons. If the Twins seriously entertained dealing him, he’d probably be the prize of the rotation market.

Ryan has been the lone consistent force in a rotation that has struggled since losing Pablo López and Zebby Matthews to injuries. Minnesota starters have performed fairly well in July but had an MLB-worst 5.59 ERA in June. A Ryan trade would more or less wave the white flag on 2025, and it’d deal a huge hit to next year’s pitching staff. It’s tough to see them doing that as long as they’re within a few games of a playoff spot.

That won’t stop other teams from trying. While Ryan may be Minnesota’s most valuable trade chip, they have a number of players who’d be coveted if they sell. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax will get a lot of attention from clubs looking for high-leverage bullpen help. Impending free agents Willi Castro and Harrison Bader are quality role players on the position player side. Chris Paddack would pique the interest of some teams that are looking for a back-end starter. Jon Heyman of The New York Post wrote this evening that the Twins could field offers on Duran and Jax if they drop further in the standings. There’d be little reason not to shop Castro, Bader and Paddack in that situation as well.

In any case, it’s highly unlikely that Byron Buxton is going anywhere. The star center fielder is signed through 2028 and having the kind of monster season that has long been possible if he can stay healthy. Even in the improbable event that the front office considered trading him, Buxton’s deal has a full no-trade clause. The two-time All-Star tells Heyman he wouldn’t have any interest in waiving his no-trade rights and leaving the only organization he has ever known.

Twins Notes: Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Lewis

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The TwinsFest fan event in Minnesota was today and, as noted by Matthew Leach of MLB.com, manager Rocco Baldelli and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey provided updates on the health of a number of major players on the roster. Chief among those was shortstop Carlos Correa, who turned in phenomenal numbers for the Twins on a rate basis last year but was limited to just 86 games due to plantar fasciitis. Falvey noted today that Correa has had “no issues” with his plantar fasciitis this offseason, and Correa himself backed that up.

“I’m ready to go, full go for spring training,” Correa told reporters, as relayed by Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. “I’ve been sprinting. I’ve been running around. I’ve been doing about everything. I’ve been focused on not only just treatment but also strengthening. A lot of walking barefoot around the house. All that’s helping work on my toes and all that, so I’m in a really good spot.”

Nightengale adds that Correa is ahead of schedule relative to last offseason and has already begun hitting and taking groundballs in addition to running. That Correa appears to be fully healthy headed into 2025 is surely a huge relief for the Twins, as the shortstop is arguably the club’s most impactful player when healthy. If he can deliver anything like last season’s .310/.388/.517 slash line over a full season this year, that should be a huge boost for the Twins as they angle towards making a return to the postseason following a frustrating late-season collapse last September.

Correa isn’t the only impact player who received a positive health update today, however. Falvey and Baldelli both indicated that having a normal offseason without any rehabbing or physical therapy has done wonders for center fielder Byron Buxton, who has often been injured frequently throughout his career but managed to appear in 102 games this year with a .279/.335/.524 slash line in 388 trips to the plate. If he can build on his healthy offseason and stay on the field in 2025, that would give the Twins a second player with five-win potential in their lineup alongside Correa.

Turning to the rotation, right-hander Joe Ryan ended the 2024 campaign on the shelf due to Grade 2 teres major strain that sidelined him back in August. Fortunately, the issue has not bled into the offseason and Leach indicates that he’s at the same point in his throwing program that he would be at this point in the winter during any other year. That’s surely a huge relief for the Twins given that Ryan was their best starter last year when healthy. The 28-year-old righty posted a strong 3.60 ERA (115 ERA+) with a 3.44 FIP and a strong 27.3% strikeout rate in 23 starts for the club last season. Building on that performance in 2025 would be particularly key for the Twins if staff ace Pablo Lopez were to be traded this winter, though rumors have quieted down on that front since reports indicated the club was listening to offers on him last month.

One other update to come from today’s festivities involved infielder Royce Lewis and the club’s plans for him in 2025. Earlier this winter, reporting indicated that the Twins were considering a shift from third base to second for Lewis. Since then, it’s been confirmed that the club plans to have Lewis take reps at both positions during Spring Training, but LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune relayed this evening that Falvey made clear the club’s plan as things stand is for Lewis to continue playing third base during the season this year. That would seemingly leave second base open for 2022 first rounder Brooks Lee, though Edouard Julien is also capable of playing the position.

Twins Designate Trevor Richards For Assignment

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The Twins announced their waiver claim of right-hander Michael Tonkin, which was previously reported. To open a 40-man spot, righty Trevor Richards has been designated for assignment. To take the active spot of Richards, the club has selected the contract of righty Caleb Boushley. To open a 40-man spot for Boushley, righty Joe Ryan has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Richards was the Twins’ lone deadline pickup a month ago, coming over from Toronto in exchange for minor league infielder Jay Harry. The right-hander had scoreless outings in seven of his ten appearances with Minnesota but also had three shakier outings, leading to a 4.15 ERA in 13 innings overall.

That may not seem particularly poor at first glance, but Richards walked a massive 18.6% of his opponents during his time with the Twins and even more incredibly uncorked seven wild pitches during those 13 frames. He also hit two batters. Overall, the lack of command he showed proved too alarming for the team to continue on with the right-hander.

Richards has had some big league success in the past, both as a starter (261 2/3 innings of 4.22 ERA ball in 2018-19) and a reliever (3.50 ERA, 31.1 K% in 64 1/3 innings in 2021). However, even though he’s shown a consistent ability to miss bats and regularly flummoxed lefties with a plus changeup, he’s struggled with command and been far too hittable against fellow righties.

Richards came to the Twins as a rental who’d been struggling with his former team, so the cost of acquisition to acquire him was quite low. Still, the Twins surely hoped for better results, particularly given their lack of other deadline additions. Instead, he’ll give way to Tonkin, who’s back for a second 2024 stint with the team that originally drafted him in the 30th round back in 2008. Richards will now hit waivers and presumably clear, as a team would need to be willing to pay the remaining $358K on his $2.15MM salary in order to place a claim.

As for the 30-year-old Boushley, this’ll be his second stint with the Twins this year as well. He pitched two innings and allowed two runs a few months back, but has spent the rest of the season in Triple-A, where he has a 4.97 ERA in 116 innings. That earned run average is skewed in part by a calamitous nine-run shellacking at the hands of the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate back on July 3, but Boushley has been struggling in general as of late. Even setting aside that nine-run bonanza, he’s been tagged for a 6.55 ERA in his past seven starts with the Saints.

Joe Ryan Diagnosed With Grade 2 Teres Major Strain

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The Twins received bad news following right-hander Joe Ryan’s MRI, as he’s been diagnosed with a Grade 2 teres major strain that’ll threaten the remainder of his season, manager Rocco Baldelli announced to the Twins beat this morning (X link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). It’s a more serious injury than the Twins initially anticipated, and while Baldelli didn’t entirely rule Ryan out for the remainder of the season, he acknowledged that it’ll take “weeks to months” for the right-hander to recover.

Ryan is headed to the 15-day IL for now, and the Twins have also selected the contract of right-hander Scott Blewett from Triple-A St. Paul in his place. Right-hander Brock Stewart, who is headed for season-ending shoulder surgery, was placed on the 60-day IL to open a spot for Blewett. Minnesota also reinstated infielder Kyle Farmer from the injured list, placed infielder Brooks Lee on the 15-day IL due to biceps tendinitis, and called up right-hander Louie Varland as the 27th man for their pivotal doubleheader against the division-leading Guardians.

The injury for Ryan is a gut-punch to a Twins club that was unable to acquire a starting pitcher prior to the trade deadline and has already seen its rotation depth stretched thin. The 28-year-old Ryan has been perhaps their steadiest starter in 2024, logging 135 innings of 3.60 ERA ball with a strong 27.3% strikeout rate against an outstanding 4.3% walk rate. He’s been a fixture in the Twins’ rotation since being acquired from the Rays in exchange for Nelson Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, making 84 starts with a 3.92 ERA and consistently strong strikeout and walk rates.

With Ryan joining Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani — who required season-ending surgery back in spring training — on the injured list, Minnesota will be forced to lean on a rookie-heavy rotation while trying to overtake Cleveland and fight off Kansas City in the AL Central race. Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober provide plenty of big league experience, but they’ll be followed by Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and likely Varland in the season’s final seven weeks or so. Right-hander Zebby Matthews, who has rocketed up prospect rankings in 2024 while dominating High-A and Double-A, could be called to the big leagues sooner than he otherwise would have with a healthier staff. Veteran righty Adam Plutko is also in Triple-A with the Twins and has pitched to a respectable 4.35 ERA there — including a 3.38 mark over his past seven starts.

Given the increased level of strain on the pitching depth, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the Twins pursue some additional depth. Their avenues to doing so are limited now that the deadline has passed, but they still have some options. Rich Hill, who pitched for the Twins in 2020, is planning to sign for the stretch run and showcased for teams just today. Some depth options like Xzavion Curry (Guardians) and Jackson Wolf (Padres) were designated for assignment within the past week and could hold appeal — if they make it to the Twins on waivers. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently laid out for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, we could see a handful of notable veterans hit waivers later this month if their teams falter, although the Twins slashed payroll considerably this past offseason and ownership might balk at the notion of absorbing additional payroll for the stretch run.

In the short-term, the Twins will give Varland the first start and slot Blewett, who pitched for the 2020-21 Royals, into the bullpen. Varland opened the season in the rotation after an encouraging run late last year, but the Twin Cities native was hit hard early this season, optioned to Triple-A and eventually leapfrogged by Woods Richardson and Festa on the depth chart. He’s struggled in Triple-A overall but had rattled off a 1.48 ERA with 35 strikeouts and 14 walks in his past six starts there (30 1/3 innings).

As for Blewett, he inked a minor league deal in the offseason. The 28-year-old righty was a second-round pick by the Royals back in 2014 and has bounced around pro ball, also spending time in the White Sox and Braves systems in addition to a nice stint with the Uni-President Lions in Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League last year. He’s pitched 56 1/3 innings for the Saints this season and notched a solid 3.66 ERA with a 23.2% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in that time.

The injury to Lee, 23, will open the door for Farmer’s return. Lee was the No. 8 overall pick in 2022 and currently stands as a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport. He missed the beginning of the season with a stress reaction in his back but returned to light fire to Triple-A pitching, hitting opponents at a .329/.394/.635 clip with seven homers in just 94 plate appearances before being summoned to the majors amid other injuries in Minnesota’s infield. He’ll head to the shelf himself now, leaving the Twins with Farmer and Willi Castro at second and short, Royce Lewis at third base and Carlos Santana at first base (in addition to Jose Miranda mixing in at the infield corners).

AL Central Notes: Francona, Twins, Tigers

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The first 20,000 fans in attendance at Wednesday’s Guardians home game against the Reds will receive “Thank You, Tito” t-shirts, to commemorate what is very likely Terry Francona’s final home game as the Guards’ manager.  It isn’t much of a secret that Francona is planning to retire after the season, though he has stopped short of making an official announcement since “he would rather execute an Irish exit than attract one extra iota of attention,” the Athletic’s Zack Meisel writes.  Meisel’s piece is an excellent profile of Francona’s long career as a manager, coach, and player, providing plenty of insight and colorful anecdotes into one of baseball’s greatest skippers.

Here’s more from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins will use Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray (in an order to be determined) as the starters of their first two playoff games, manager Rocco Baldelli told The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and other reporters.  Baldelli didn’t confirm any of Minnesota’s other pitching plans for October, but in implying that Kenta Maeda will be working as a reliever during the postseason, that would seem to set up Joe Ryan as the team’s top choice as a third starter.  Ryan has a 3.82 ERA over 30 2/3 innings since returning from the injured list, as trying to pitch through a groin strain contributed to some very shaky numbers for Ryan in midseason after an outstanding April and May.  Maeda has had a strong season in his own right and hasn’t worked as a reliever since 2019, but his usage out of the bullpen gives the Twins a potential impact reliever for their playoff run.
  • Tigers prospect Jace Jung has played only second base and DH during his two pro seasons, but he’ll now be getting some looks as a third baseman in the Arizona Fall League, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes.  Both MLB Pipeline (67th) and Baseball America (98th) rank Jung among the top 100 prospects in baseball, though both outlets have concerns about his eventual defensive future, as second base was seen as a less-challenging spot for Jung than the hot corner.  However, an even more highly-touted Detroit prospect faces similar defensive questions, as Colt Keith (18th BA, 25th Pipeline) looks ticketed for second base duty.  Keith gets the priority because he has posted big numbers at Triple-A this second and could factor into Detroit’s lineup as early as Opening Day 2024, while Jung might need more time to get acclimated at his new position and has yet to reach Triple-A.  Keith and Jung are two of several intriguing position-player prospects coming up the ranks in the Tigers’ farm system, to the point that Henning feels a possible logjam for future playing time gives the Tigers a good problem to have in figuring out who plays where, and ultimately might players might be kept or used as trade chips.

Twins Reinstate Joe Ryan From Injured List

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TODAY: The Twins officially reinstated Ryan from the 15-day IL, and righty Jordan Balazovic was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.

AUGUST 25: The Twins are listing Joe Ryan as the probable starter for tomorrow evening’s game with the Rangers. They’ll need to reinstate him from the 15-day injured list. Ryan will oppose Max Scherzer in the third contest of a four-game set.

Ryan missed three weeks after straining his left groin. It isn’t clear if he’d been pitching through discomfort before his IL placement. His results immediately prior to landing on the shelf had taken a sharp downturn, though. Ryan carried a 3.70 ERA through 107 innings into the All-Star Break. He was tagged for 18 runs in 19 frames in four starts out of the Break, pushing his season mark to a middling 4.43 earned runs per nine.

Whether that was directly tied to his groin concern, the Twins will hope the few weeks off allows Ryan to recapture his early-season form. His return could lead to a roster decision for the front office and manager Rocco Baldelli. Ryan joins Pablo López and Sonny Gray at the top of the rotation. The Twins have filled out the starting staff with Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel — whose contract was selected at the time Ryan landed on the IL — this month.

Maeda has a 2.91 ERA while striking out 32% of opponents in 11 starts since returning from an IL stint of his own at the end of June. Ober still has minor league options remaining, but he’s been a quietly effective rotation piece. Over 21 starts and 118 2/3 innings, the third-year hurler owns a 3.41 ERA and has fanned just under a quarter of batters faced. He’s clearly deserving of a spot on the big league staff.

Perhaps that leaves Keuchel as the odd man out. The former Cy Young winner has tossed 13 innings over three outings, allowing seven runs. He has struck out just three against four walks and a hit by pitch. He’s averaging 87.5 MPH on his sinker and has gotten swinging strikes on only 6.3% of his pitches.

On the other hand, Keuchel’s ground-ball rate sits at an excellent 56.3%. That’s not quite at the levels of his peak days in Houston but is markedly above last season’s 50.2% mark. Keuchel also kept the ball on the ground at a huge 61.1% clip through six Triple-A starts before his call-up, posting a 1.13 ERA in the process.

Earlier this week, Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote that the Twins were considering the possibility of a six-man rotation after Ryan’s activation. That’d allow the coaching staff some flexibility in workload management. Maeda missed all of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, though he’s only at 74 2/3 frames this year. Ober has shouldered the heaviest work of his career in 2023. Including four Triple-A starts in the opening month, he’s at 136 1/3 frames for the year. His previous high for combined innings was 108 1/3 during the ’21 campaign.

Hayes also indicates that piggybacking some combination of Ober, Maeda and Keuchel could be on the table. That’d be another means of limiting workload while reducing the number of times those pitchers face an opponent a third time in a game. While keeping all six starters on the roster would temporarily shorten the bullpen, teams are permitted to add one pitcher to the MLB club on September 1.

Twins Select Dallas Keuchel, Place Joe Ryan On IL

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The Twins announced that they have selected the contract of left-hander Dallas Keuchel, who triggered an opt-out in his minor league deal two days ago. In order open space for him on their roster, right-hander Joe Ryan has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left groin strain while righty José De León will be transferred to the 60-day IL.

Keuchel, 35, is looking to bounce back from a rough stretch in the big leagues in the previous two years. After close to a decade of effective pitching, including a Cy Young-winning season in 2015, the lefty allowed 6.35 earned runs per nine innings over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He started that time period with the White Sox but bounced to the Diamondbacks and Rangers last year, with each club trying unsuccessfully to get him back to his previous form.

The Twins signed him to a minor league in June of this year, at which time it was reported that he had done some work with Driveline Baseball to restore some velocity and movement to his pitches. The early results of that have been encouraging, as he made six Triple-A starts lately with a 1.13 ERA, 21.2% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 61.5% ground ball rate.

He had a couple of opt-outs on that minor league deal, the first of which was about two weeks ago. He skipped that first chance, likely due to the fact that his second chance would be on trade deadline day, when new opportunities might emerge. He triggered that second opt-out on Tuesday, giving the Twins 48 hours to either select his contract or release him back to free agency.

There were arguments to both sides of the choice. On the one hand, Keuchel had previously shown literal Cy Young upside and was again posting encouraging results. On the other hand, his recent improved form was a small sample in the minors and it’s been quite a while since he was effective at the major league level. Plus, the Twins had a strong group of five starters in Ryan, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Pablo López and Bailey Ober. But it now seems Keuchel will get his shot after all, with Ryan now going on the IL.

It’s unclear exactly when Ryan suffered his injury but his results have been getting worse as the season has gone along. His ERA was sitting at 2.98 after a complete game shutout against the Red Sox on June 22. Since then, however, he’s allowed 31 earned runs in 32 1/3 innings, bringing his season ERA to 4.43.

It hasn’t been reported how long Ryan is expected to be out, but it seems Keuchel will take his spot in the rotation for at least a couple of turns. The southpaw will try to revive his reputation as a viable major league starter while the Twins try to hold onto the lead in the American League Central. They just barely have a winning record at 55-54 but that’s still good enough for a two-game cushion in the division.

De León required Tommy John surgery in June, so this transfer was an inevitable formality. He’ll be out for the rest of this year and at least the first half of next year as well.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 1: Twins Land A Rotation Cornerstone

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5, No. 4, No. 3. and No. 2. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Now for the top spot in our series…

The 2021 season was a disaster for the Twins. Fresh off a division title in the shortened 2020 season, they entered the year as the team to beat in the American League Central but faceplanted with a 9-15 showing in the season’s first month and never recovered. Offseason signings of Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome and Matt Shoemaker all flopped. Top prospect Alex Kirilloff, expected to be a key contributor, was limited to 59 games thanks to a torn ligament in his wrist. Kenta Maeda followed up his Cy Young runner-up season with an injury-shortened year that ended with him undergoing Tommy John surgery. Jose Berrios was the only pitcher who even reached 110 innings on an injury-ravaged Twins staff.

Berrios was also one of several veterans the Twins wound up trading once they waved the white flag on their 2021 season. After years of failed extension efforts, he was traded to the Blue Jays in exchange for prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. That trade was one of the headline moves of the entire 2021 trade deadline, but it wasn’t the defining move of the summer for the Twins.

That distinction goes to the first trade they made, jumping the market to send designated hitter Nelson Cruz to the Rays in a trade that brought back a pair of pitching prospects: the since-DFA’ed Drew Strotman and a near-MLB-ready right-hander by the name of Joe Ryan. The Twins also sent minor league righty Calvin Faucher to the Rays as part of the deal — he’s since made his debut but hasn’t pitched particularly well — so it can be argued that this wasn’t a pure rental, but the heart of the trade was a half season of Cruz for the aforementioned prospects.

Regardless of how things play out with Faucher, there’s no getting around the fact that the trade didn’t work out as the Rays hoped. Cruz was hitting .294/.370/.537 with 19 homers in 346 plate appearances at the time of the trade, and Tampa Bay hoped they were acquiring a heart-of-the-order slugger who could deepen their lineup and provide some needed thump in the postseason. Cruz kept hitting for power (13 homers, 238 plate appearances), but his strikeout rate spiked as his walk rate plummeted.

The end result was a .226/.283/.442 slash, plus a 3-for-17 showing in an ALDS loss to the Red Sox. One of those hits was a solo home run, but Cruz’s well below-average OBP and dramatic rise in strikeouts (from 18.2% in Minnesota to 26.5% in Tampa Bay) fell shy of expectations. Cruz hit free agency following the season and went on to sign a one-year deal with the Nationals.

The now-26-year-old Strotman’s time with the Twins lasted barely a year. He was hit hard in Minnesota’s Triple-A rotation following the trade and moved to the bullpen the following year, which did little to quell his long-running command issues. He’s since bounced to the Rangers and Giants via waivers, the latter of whom was able to pass him through waivers unclaimed. He currently has a 6.54 ERA in Triple-A Sacramento. Strotman was an upper-level pitching prospect who had a chance to debut in the Majors in relatively short order, but his half of the trade (quite clearly) hasn’t panned out.

The other half of the Twins’ return is another story entirely.

At the time of the trade, Ryan had only just begun to sneak onto the back-end of top-100 prospect rankings around the industry. He was in the midst of a strong season with Triple-A Durham, pitching to a 3.63 ERA with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 4.7% walk rate. Ryan’s lack of velocity — he averages under 93 mph on his fastball — perhaps created some skepticism about his ability to continue missing bats at that level in the big leagues, but his atypical release point has allowed him to continually befuddle hitters despite his pedestrian velocity.

Ryan’s time in the minor leagues with the Twins was brief, to say the least. Minnesota had the right-hander make just two starts in Triple-A following the trade before summoning him for his Major League debut. In his next four starts, Ryan held opponents to a 2.45 ERA with a 25-to-3 K/BB ratio in 22 innings. He was hit hard in his final outing of the year, finishing out the season with a 4.05 ERA and 30-to-5 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 innings.

The Twins had seen enough to not only pencil Ryan into their 2022 rotation, but make him their Opening Day starter after just five big league appearances. Ryan’s 2022 campaign, his age-26 season, marked a significant step forward. The right-hander made 27 starts, pitched to a 3.55 ERA and fanned a quarter of his opponents against a tidy 7.8% walk rate. If there was any doubt about his status as a surefire big league starter, it’d largely been eliminated.

Continuing on at that pace would’ve made Ryan a clear building block for the Twins, but he’s taken his game to another new level so far in 2023. Long an extreme fly-ball pitcher, Ryan has added a splitter that’s helped him up his ground-ball rate and further neutralize left-handed opponents. Ryan’s 35% ground-ball rate is still lower than average by nearly 10 percentage points, but it’s a huge increase from the 27.7% mark he posted in 2022. Lefties weren’t effective against him in the first place, hitting just .202/.288/.348 in 2022, but they’ve flailed away at a .199/.242/.281 clip in 2023. The addition of that splitter has helped out against righties, too; they’re hitting just .225/.257/.373 against Ryan this year. Statcast credits the newly implemented splitter with a .196 “expected” opponents’ batting average and a .283 expected slugging percentage.

Ryan entered play today with a 3.30 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate in 84 1/3 innings. After averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per outing last year, he’s been given a longer leash by the Twins in 2023 and averaged a bit better than six innings per start. The mustachioed righty has already surpassed his 2022 total of 2.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement, and his 1.8 WAR over at Baseball-Reference is rapidly approaching last year’s mark of 2.3. He’s a candidate for a 2023 All-Star bid, and if he can sustain this pace, he’ll likely find himself on the periphery of Cy Young voting later this season.

Because Ryan fell well shy of a full year of service time in 2021, he didn’t accrue a full year of service until the completion of the 2022 season. He’ll finish the 2023 campaign with two-plus year of service and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2024 season. The Twins control him all the way through the 2027 season, though his performance through his first 46 career starts certainly makes him a logical extension candidate for the Twins if the two sides can find a palatable middle ground.

It’s difficult for teams marketing rental players to command any degree of highly ranked prospects, let alone a near-MLB ready arm who can step into a big league rotation just weeks after the swap is completed. The Twins’ willingness to jump the sellers’ market — Cruz was traded more than a week before the deadline — and his status as perhaps the top bat available on the market created the right circumstances for Minnesota to strike gold and set a new benchmark for modern-day rental returns.

It’s probably not realistic for fans hoping their teams can cash in on a high-end rental player to expect a return this good, but the Twins surely don’t mind Ryan’s status as a best-case scenario for a return in this type of swap. Their decision to re-sign Cruz for a third year netted them a half season of excellent offense and, quite possibly, six-plus years of a pitcher who’s increasingly looking like a front-of-the-rotation arm. It’s the type of return any GM or president of baseball operations dreams of every July but the type that is rarely achieved.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Activate Joe Ryan, Designate Elliot Soto

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The Twins announced that right-hander Joe Ryan has been reinstated from the COVID-19 injured list to start this evening’s game against the Mariners. To create space on the active and 40-man rosters, infielder Elliot Soto has been designated for assignment.

Ryan has missed a bit more than three weeks due to virus issues. The length of his absence necessitated a one-game rehab stint with Triple-A St. Paul, where the righty tossed three scoreless innings last Thursday. He’s now ready to return to the MLB rotation, where he’s made eight starts this season. Through 43 1/3 innings, the 26-year-old owns a sparkling 2.28 ERA with a solid 24.3% strikeout rate. Acquired from the Rays as part of last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade, Ryan was surprisingly tabbed Minnesota’s Opening Day starter and has allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings over his first 13 big league appearances.

Soto was selected onto the major league roster yesterday, and he loses his spot after just one game. The 32-year-old didn’t play in last night’s win over Seattle, leaving him without an MLB appearance since a three-game stint with the 2020 Angels. Signed to a minor league deal over the winter, Soto has hit .213/.327/.331 with a pair of home runs in 159 trips to the plate with St. Paul.

Minnesota will likely place the right-handed hitter on waivers within the next few days. Having previously been outrighted in his career, he’d have the right to refuse a minor league assignment in favor of free agency if he passes through unclaimed.

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