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White Sox Likely To Prioritize Trades Over Free Agency As They Navigate Payroll Constraints

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The White Sox go into the offseason looking to bounce back from an average season. That registered as a major disappointment for a team that entered 2022 as favorites in the AL Central, leaving the front office to regroup in a renewed effort at competing for the division.

It doesn’t seem Chicago will have much leeway to make many free agent acquisitions. General manager Rick Hahn told reporters yesterday that trades are the likelier avenue to improving the roster (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). Hahn indicated the team would open 2023 with a player payroll similar to this year’s mark. Chicago opened the 2022 campaign with a payroll around $193MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but James Fegan of the Athletic reports the club is eyeing a figure more in the $180MM range to start next season.

There’s no indication $180MM represents a strict cap for the Sox front office, but anything in that range would limit Hahn and his staff in taking on many salaries of note. Chicago has around $139MM in guaranteed commitments on next year’s books, including option buyouts for AJ Pollock, Josh Harrison and Dallas Keuchel, according to Roster Resource. Arbitration-eligible players are projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for roughly $26MM in additional salaries, and pre-arbitration players rounding out the roster would cost around $10MM. Non-tendering Adam Engel would knock a couple million dollars off that figure, but the Sox still have roughly $173MM allocated to the roster before looking outside the organization.

Much of that money is committed to key players coming off down years. Yasmani Grandal, Yoán Moncada and Lance Lynn each have salaries in the $18MM range. Grandal and Moncada had rough 2022 campaigns and would be impossible to move without eating a notable chunk of salary. The Sox could probably find a taker for Lynn, but dealing him would only weaken a starting rotation that’s already one of the team’s biggest question marks.

Dylan Cease is locked in at the top of the staff, with Lynn and Lucas Giolito following him. Giolito is projected for a $10.8MM salary in his final year of arbitration. He’s coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, but there’s no chance the Sox would non-tender him and a trade seems like an unlikely sell-low. Hahn expressed confidence in the righty’s ability to bounce back, pointing to his work ethic and relationship with pitching coach Ethan Katz (via Van Schouwen). Michael Kopech figures to have the fourth rotation spot locked down, but Chicago will have to replace free agent Johnny Cueto. Hahn suggested Davis Martin could compete for the fifth spot but admitted that filling it externally would be ideal. The GM suggested Reynaldo López and Jimmy Lambert — each of whom has started in the past — were locked into the bullpen at this point.

The relief corps should be the backbone of the club, with Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly and López taking high-leverage innings. Chicago has invested heavily in that area in recent offseasons, but another splash there looks unlikely given the payroll limitations and needs elsewhere on the roster.

On the position player side, second base and right field have been persistent questions. Chicago bought out Harrison, leaving them with some combination of Leury García, Lenyn Sosa and Danny Mendick as the favorites for second base playing time. Jean Segura is the top option in a weak free agent class there, while players like Cavan Biggio and Kevin Newman could be attainable via trade.

Right field was unexpectedly vacated by Pollock declining his player option yesterday. Andrew Vaughn has played there but is headed to his natural first base position with José Abreu highly likely to depart in free agency. Engel, Gavin Sheets and Mark Payton are part of a lackluster collection of internal options. Hahn name-checked Oscar Colás, coming off a .306/.364/.563 showing in Double-A, as a candidate for the right field job, but the 24-year-old has just seven games of MLB experience.

Trade possibilities in right field include Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Max Kepler and Jake McCarthy. Given Hahn’s comments, dipping into that market seems likelier than a run at Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger or Joc Pederson, although platoon options like Wil Myers, Robbie Grossman and Tyler Naquin would be attainable in free agency for a few million dollars.

Pitching Notes: Berrios, Giolito, Eovaldi, Minor

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The Toronto Blue Jays may have some difficulty carving out a role for José Berríos in their postseason rotation. Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star pointed out in a Thursday opinion piece that in a scenario that sees the Jays go to a third game in the AL Wild Card Series, Berríos could find himself coming out of the bullpen.

Berríos has not been the pitcher Toronto had hoped he would be since the club gave him the second largest contract in franchise history in terms of total value last offseason. Nearly a season into his seven-year, $131 million extension, the twenty-eight year old right-hander has struggled to turn out quality outings with any consistency. Excluding a rough rookie season, Berríos is posting career worsts in ERA, WHIP, K/9, HR/9, BABIP, and HardHit%. He is also not trending in the right direction, accumulating a 6.92 ERA in the month of August and conceding six earned runs in just two innings to the Rays on Thursday night.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman are the presumptive choices for the Jays’ first two games of the best-of-three Wild Card Series. If that series goes to a decisive third game, barring injury, manager John Schneider will likely face a choice between starting Ross Stripling, who has had an excellent 2022, or Berríos.

More on other pitching situations from around the league…

  • White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is another tenured AL ace that has not pitched to his potential in 2022. His 5.05 ERA, 1.477 WHIP, and 9.9 H/9 are his worst since he broke out in 2019. After a September 16th start in which he gutted out 4 2/3 innings of one run ball, Giolito told James Fagan of The Athletic that his stuff was “obviously just like, not really there,” as it has been for most of the season. He continued on to cite a lack of fastball velocity as a chief contributor to his 2022 struggles. Giolito’s four-seam velocity has averaged 92.9 mph this season, a full 1.5 mph slower than his 2019 peak. The Sox can retain him for one more season via arbitration before he is scheduled to reach free agency as a 29-year-old, with Giolito surely hoping to find a way to have a better campaign in his platform year.
  • Nathan Eovaldi, who will be a free agent this offseason, alluded to his desire to re-sign with the Red Sox in an interview with Chad Jennings of The Athletic. “I love being here,” Eovaldi said. “It’s the front office, it’s the coaching staff, the training staff. Here, they all want to win.” It is unclear whether the 32-year old fits into Boston’s future plans. The Red Sox are on the precipice of a potentially turbulent offseason in which Eovaldi and DH J.D. Martinez are free agents and the contracts of superstars Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts have yet to be resolved. Boston’s uncertain future, in addition to the fact that Eovaldi spent so much of his 2018 pact with the Red Sox on the IL, casts some doubt on the notion that Red Sox will share Eovaldi’s interest in a reunion. However, with Rich Hill and Michael Wacha both headed into free agency as well, the club will certainly be looking to fill some rotation holes for 2023.
  • Reds lefty Mike Minor told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he is considering retirement at the conclusion of the 2022 season. “I’d have to feel good, and I’d have to want to play and want to be away from my family again,” Minor said. Three years removed from an All-Star nod with the Rangers, Minor battled injuries for the first two months of 2022. In total, he has thrown 98 innings to the tune of a 6.06 ERA for a non-competitive Reds team. Minor will face free agency this offseason should he elect to return to the big-leagues for a 12th year.

Could Lucas Giolito Be This Year’s José Berríos?

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On this date one year ago, the Minnesota Twins were 39-50, placing them 15 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central and 11 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot. They fell a little bit further back by the deadline and decided they had to do some selling. This was surely a disappointing result after two straight division titles and three postseason berths in four years, but they didn’t have much choice. Injuries and underperformance forced them to punt the season for the sake of the future. However, they still wanted to return to competing in 2022, selling only rentals like Nelson Cruz, J.A. Happ and Hansel Robles. The one exception was José Berríos, who had a year and a half of team control at the time.

The Twins traded Berríos to the Blue Jays, adding a couple of blue chip prospects to the system in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. The hope at the time was that they could bolster their farm but still leave the big league club intact enough to take another shot in 2022. Despite Kenta Maeda’s subsequent Tommy John surgery, it’s still largely gone to plan so far. The club added Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray and Chris Paddack this offseason. Even though Paddack followed Maeda down the Tommy John path, the Twins are 49-41, tops in the division, 4 1/2 games ahead of the Guardians.

This year’s White Sox are in a somewhat analogous position to last year’s Twins, although not quite as desperate. They, too, are coming off two consecutive trips to the postseason and had hopes of competing that have been hampered by injury and underperformance. They are currently 43-45, five games behind the Twins in the division and 3 1/2 games out in the Wild Card race. With about three weeks until the deadline, there’s still plenty of time for them to gain some ground and get back in the thick of things. But if things go the other direction and they slip further back, they might consider following the playbook of the Twins last year, picking up some prospects but without destroying the team, and then giving it another go next year.

In a conversation this week between Alyson Footer, Mark Feinsand and Jon Morosi at MLB.com, Morosi shared this thought: “I think it would take a significant tumble for the White Sox for Lucas Giolito to become truly available, but that’s a situation worth watching.” It doesn’t seem like Morosi’s sharing any insider information there, merely speculating on what could become possible in that scenario. Giolito is in the same position as Berríos last year, being a year and a half away from free agency, making him perhaps Chicago’s best chance at recouping a significant prospect return. In terms of rentals, José Abreu is the biggest name but doesn’t seem likely to be dealt given his status within the organization. Johnny Cueto is having a nice season but is 36 years old and probably won’t net a massive haul. Vince Velasquez is doing his usual thing. AJ Pollock is having a poor season, giving him negligible trade value and making it likely he exercises his $10MM player option for next year. Josh Harrison is having an okay-ish season but the 35-year-old utility guy won’t be a hot commodity at the deadline. He also has a $5.5MM club option for next year that comes with a $1.5MM buyout.

Giolito, with his excellent results in recent years and extra control, is perhaps the team’s best shot at really cashing in. One slight problem is that Giolito, like the White Sox, is having a down season. From 2019 to 2021, he put up an ERA of 3.47 over 72 starts, with a 30.7% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 35.6% ground ball rate. This year, through 16 starts, his ERA has jumped up to 4.69. His 27.1% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate are a bit worse than recent seasons, but not by much. BABIP seems to be a factor here, as his .338 mark on the season is well above his .272 career rate. That’s not pure bad luck, however, since he’s definitely getting hit harder. His 10.4% barrel rate is well above last year’s 6.7% and the 5.6% from the year before. Giolito is only in the 19th percentile of pitchers in terms of hard hit percentage and 29th in terms of average exit velocity.

Those struggles will likely put a dent in the return the White Sox would get in any trade, but they might need to consider it anyway if they truly slip from the race, as their farm system is generally regarded to be in poor shape. Baseball America recently ranked them last in the majors in their most recent list of organizational talent. Ditto for The Athletic and ESPN and MLB Pipeline. FanGraphs places them 29th, ahead of only Atlanta, with no White Sox prospects on their Top 100 list. In the upcoming draft, they are selecting 26th overall and have the 28th-highest total draft pool.

This makes their position outside the playoff race particularly uncomfortable. Since they’re not that far out, they might want to make a big splash at the deadline in order to give the club a boost and get them back into the race. But doing so would involve further weakening a system that is already in very poor shape. At some point, there must be a point where they consider turning their attention to the future for a few months and then trying to reload in the offseason.

In the scenario where Giolito is moved, the rotation wouldn’t be in awful shape next year. Cueto would also be gone as he’s on a one-year deal, but they would still have Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. That’s still a strong front three to work with. Davis Martin is having a nice season as a depth starter and could perhaps earn a spot at the back of the rotation for next year. Of course, there’s the risk of an injury further depleting the staff, as happened to the Twins when Maeda went down. But they were still able to pivot and overcome that with a busy offseason.

The odds of any of this coming together are still long. With the Sox just 3 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot, one hot week can completely wipe out any thoughts of selling. But the same is true in the other direction, as one bad week could suddenly have them six, seven or eight games out. While trading Giolito now would be selling a bit low given his mediocre year, there would surely be clubs who could look to his past results and feel they could turn him around. Just about every contender is looking for starting pitching, with most clubs being connected to Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle. But many teams will miss out on those three and be looking for other options. If the White Sox want to give a quick boost to their weak farm but then try to compete again while they still have the core of Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Vaughn and those aforementioned pitchers, this might be their best bet.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox Transfer Lance Lynn To 60-Day IL, Activate Lucas Giolito

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The White Sox announced Wednesday that they’ve reinstated righty Lucas Giolito from the Covid-related injured list and opened a spot on the 40-man by transferring righty Lance Lynn to the 60-day injured list. It’s a procedural move that doesn’t impact Lynn’s timetable; he’s eligible to be activated on June 6, as the “60-day” minimum window is retroactive to his original IL placement — not today’s transfer.

Giolito was placed on the Covid list just last week but will return in a matter of days. The brief stint on the IL pushed back his start by a few days, as he’ll be taking the hill for the first time since May 10 when he does so in a few hours against the Royals. Giolito also missed 12 days earlier this season due to an abdominal strain, but he’s been characteristically excellent when on the active roster. In five starts (26 2/3 innings), he’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a 35.2% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. Dating back to his 2019 breakout campaign, Giolito has been Chicago’s most consistent starter, turning in 454 1/3 frames of 3.43 ERA ball and thrice receiving down-ballot Cy Young votes.

Lynn, 35, left his final Spring Training start with knee discomfort, and subsequent evaluations revealed a torn tendon that required surgical repair. He’s yet to embark on a minor league rehab assignment and isn’t even slated to face live hitters for the first time until Friday, so he wasn’t likely to return prior to June 6 anyhow. Assuming all goes well with his live batting practice session and his handful of minor league rehab outings, an early or mid-June return seems realistic.

The Sox inked Lynn to a two-year, $38MM extension with a third-year club option last July. He’d been set to reach the open market following the 2021 campaign and likely would’ve been positioned as one of the market’s top veteran arms, but he opted for the security of a new multi-year deal with a win-now club that’s just a few hours from his hometown in Indiana. Over the past three seasons, Lynn carries a 3.26 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate and a 6.9% walk rate in 449 1/3 frames.

With Giolito now back and Lynn perhaps not terribly far behind, the White Sox’ rotation is approaching full strength for the first time this season. They’ll have some decisions to make, barring further injuries, as Giolito and Lynn will join a starting mix that also includes Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Dallas Keuchel, Vince Velasquez and Johnny Cueto, who blanked Kansas City over seven frames in an outstanding ChiSox debut this week. Of that group, Keuchel and Velasquez have struggled considerably, though Keuchel’s $18MM salary may earn him some additional leash. Kopech, meanwhile, could have his innings carefully monitored as he embarks on his first full season as a big league starter.

White Sox Activate Andrew Vaughn, Place Lucas Giolito On IL

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The White Sox announced they’ve reinstated first baseman/corner outfielder Andrew Vaughn from the injured list. In a corresponding move, ace Lucas Giolito was placed on the COVID-19 injured list.

Vaughn hasn’t played since late April due to a hand injury. The team initially kept him on the active roster in hopes he’d avoid an IL stint altogether, but he required a bit more time than initially hoped. Chicago finally sent him to the IL on May 5 (retroactive to three days prior). He embarked upon a rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte within a week, however, and he makes his return after two games with the Knights.

A former #3 overall pick, Vaughn has shown the kind of offensive promise the White Sox have dreamed on through the season’s first few weeks. He’s hitting .283/.367/.566 with four homers in 16 games after a roughly league average .235/.309/.396 showing as a rookie. The right-handed batter figures to rotate between first, DH and both corner outfield spots and assume a middle-of-the-order role while the team is without Eloy Jiménez.

Giolito’s IL placement seems to be precautionary. The team announced he’s been experiencing virus-like symptoms for the past couple days but is expected to return next week (via James Fegan of the Athletic). The right-hander has a 2.70 ERA in 26 2/3 innings over his first five starts; he made his most recent appearance on Tuesday, tossing seven innings of one-run ball in a win over the Guardians.

Eloy Jimenez To Miss 6-8 Weeks With Hamstring Strain

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April 26: Jimenez underwent surgery to “repair a torn hamstring tendon behind his right knee,” the White Sox announced. It’s a similar injury to the one incurred by Lynn earlier this year. Jimenez’s estimated timeline remains unchanged; he’s still expected to miss six to eight weeks.

April 24: The White Sox released a statement today in regards to outfielder Eloy Jimenez, who left yesterday’s game with an injury. Jimenez has a right hamstring strain and will be heading to the injured list. While further updates are coming, the statement says that he is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. (Statement relayed by James Fegan of The Athletic.) The club later announced that Jimenez has been placed on the 10-day IL, with Lucas Giolito being reinstated and starting today’s game.

This is yet another blow to a White Sox team that has been pummeled by injuries in the first few weeks of the 2022 season. Lance Lynn, Garrett Crochet, Yoan Moncada and a handful of other players are already on the shelf, with Jimenez now set to join them. Giolito had been a part of that group as well, though the bit of good news is that he has now returned and rejoined the rotation.

The absence of Jimenez will put a dent in the club’s lineup for a second straight season. Last year, a ruptured left pectoral tendon kept him out of action beyond the halfway point of the season. He eventually returned to play 55 games down the stretch, but he only hit at around a league average level with a line of .249/.303/.437, 101 wRC+. That was certainly a few notches below his 2019-2020 output of .276/.321/.527, 122 wRC+, though perhaps understandable given the long layoff.

This year, he was off to a slow start, hitting .222/.256/.333, 74 wRC+. That’s a tiny sample of just 11 games and he surely would have improved it as time went on, but he will now have to sit on the injured list for around two months, give or take, depending on what further testing reveals. Once healthy, he will have to ramp back up and get back into game shape, just like last year.

The White Sox will now have an awkward situation on their hands for their outfield picture, as center fielder Luis Robert has also been dealing with an injury. Although he hasn’t been placed on the injured list, Robert’s groin injury has kept him out of the lineup for the past two games. AJ Pollock was just activated from the injured list on Friday after missing time with a strained hamstring. Pollock is starting in right field today, with Andrew Vaughan in left and Adam Haseley in center. Gavin Sheets and Adam Engel will likely be in the mix for some outfield time as well, with Robert eventually getting folded back in as he heals.

White Sox Place Lucas Giolito, AJ Pollock On Injured List

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1:25pm: It’ll be Lambert starting in place of Giolito this week, GM Rick Hahn tells reporters (Twitter links via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Hahn added that the Sox are “not necessarily expecting him to go out there and get us deep into the game” but rather to open the game with a few quality innings before turning things over to the ’pen.

10:40am: The White Sox announced Tuesday that right-hander Lucas Giolito and outfielder AJ Pollock have both been placed on the 10-day injured list. Giolito left his season debut with an abdominal strain, and the Sox had already revealed that he’s expected to miss at least two starts. Pollock, meanwhile is dealing with a hamstring strain that forced him from Saturday’s game. The ChiSox recalled right-hander Jimmy Lambert and lefty Anderson Severino from Triple-A Charlotte in a pair of corresponding moves.

Giolito hurled four shutout frames before exiting his debut tilt, and he’ll now be sidelined for at least his next two turns through the rotation. His placement on the 10-day IL is retroactive to April 9, so he’s eligible for return beginning on April 19. Giolito joins right-hander Lance Lynn on the shelf, though Lynn is expected to miss considerably more time than him after undergoing knee surgery.

With their top two starters out of action, the White Sox will likely look to Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, Michael Kopech, Vince Velasquez and Reynaldo Lopez to shoulder the workload in the rotation for the time being. Lambert worked three innings in his lone Triple-A appearance thus far, so he could be an option to provide some length along with Velasquez and Lopez at the back of the rotation. Chicago also inked veteran Johnny Cueto to a minor league deal earlier in the month, but he’s still building up toward game readiness after lingering as a free agent throughout the majority of Spring Training.

It’s not yet clear how much time Pollock will be expected to miss, though it’s certainly worth noting that his placement on the IL is retroactive to April 10. Acquired in a straight-up swap that sent Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers, the 34-year-old Pollock has gotten out to a 4-for-7 start in his brief White Sox tenure so far. His absence will open the door for some additional at-bats in the outfield for Gavin Sheets, Andrew Vaughn and Adam Engel. Both Sheets and Vaughn were getting some early outfield work in just minutes after the announcement, tweets James Fegan of The Athletic.

Lucas Giolito To Be Placed On IL, Miss At Least Two Starts

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The White Sox rotation was already down a man with last week’s announcement that Lance Lynn would be undergoing knee surgery. Now it seems it has been dealt another unfortunate blow, as manager Tony La Russa says Lucas Giolito will be heading to the IL, with missing two starts being the optimistic outcome, per James Fegan of The Athletic.

Giolito started last night’s season opener but left after four innings after experiencing abdominal tightness. While the long-term outlook is still unclear at this point, the fact that two starts is described as the “optimistic” downtime suggests that it’s likely to be longer than that. Giolito told reporters that the injury was a “random and freak thing” but not related to his oblique. (Twitter links from Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times)

Regardless of how long he is out, it’s bad news for the White Sox, as Giolito has established himself as one of the better starters in the game. Last year, he threw 178 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.53, 27.9% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate, coming in 11th in AL Cy Young voting. With Lynn and Giolito now both on the shelf, the projected rotation is down to Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel and Michael Kopech. There were already question marks around some of those names, as Kopech has only thrown 69 1/3 total innings over the past three years, due to Tommy John surgery and opting out of the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Keuchel is coming off a down year where he put up a 5.28 ERA.

Due to those concerns, the club bolstered their depth by signing Vince Velasquez. Although initially projected to be in the bullpen as a long man, these injuries have quickly thrust him into the rotation. He will start Tuesday’s home opener for the club, per Scott Merkin of MLB.com. Velasquez has always provided intriguing results based on his strikeouts (25.4% career rate) but a propensity for long balls has pushed his ERA to 4.95 for his career and 6.30 last year.

That still leaves one spot available in the rotation. Reynaldo Lopez started nine games for the club last year and could be an option, though La Russa says that they will wait and see if he’s needed out of the bullpen in the coming days before making a decision on that, per Fegan. Going outside the box, Tanner Banks, who just cracked a major league roster for the first time at the age of 30, is another possible option. (Per Schouwen) Banks only started five out of his 25 appearances in Triple-A in 2021 and never logged more than four innings in any outing last year.

There’s plenty still up in the air here, but it’s still certainly concerning for the Sox and their fans. The bullpen had also been dented recently by the trade of Craig Kimbrel and the announcement that Garrett Crochet will need Tommy John surgery. The pitching staff will now have to weather yet another notable absence. Johnny Cueto was recently signed to a minor league deal, but he only just arrived at the club’s spring facility in Arizona yesterday, per Fegan. He’ll need to get ramped up at extended Spring Training and maybe pitch in the minors before he’ll be ready to help the big league team.

Elsewhere on the squad, A.J. Pollock will be departing from the team after Sunday’s game for paternity leave, per Merkin. La Russa says that Andrew Vaughn will get increased playing time in Pollock’s absence, per Fegan.

White Sox Avoid Arbitration With Lucas Giolito

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The White Sox announced Friday that they’ve avoided arbitration with right-hander Lucas Giolito by signing him to a one-year deal worth $7.45MM. The two sides recently exchanged arbitration figures, with Giolito’s camp submitting at $7.5MM and the Sox at $7.3MM. The Sox will settle a bit north of the midpoint to avoid a hearing with their top young starter.

Giolito, 27, is in his second season of arbitration eligibility after earning $4.15MM in his first trip through the process. The Sox and Giolito discussed extension scenarios prior to the 2021 season, but Giolito reportedly turned down a four-year deal worth a guaranteed $50MM plus a fifth-year club option. In turning down the deal, Giolito bet on himself and, at least through the first year of that bet, looks to have done well.

The 2021 campaign saw Giolito post a career-best 178 2/3 innings while pitching to a 3.53 ERA with a 27.9% strikeout rate against a similarly strong 7.2% walk rate. The former first-round pick made 31 starts for the South Siders, marking the third time in four years since being traded over from the Nationals that he’s started at least 29 games. The lone exception was the shortened 2020 season, during which Giolito started a full slate of 12 games.

After a dismal first season with the ChiSox in 2018, Giolito broke out to the tune of a 3.41 ERA through 176 2/3 frames the following season. He’s largely matched that performance each year since, solidifying himself not only as Chicago’s most consistent starter but also one of the better young arms in the American League.

The jump from $4.15MM to $7.45MM represents a raise of nearly 80% for Giolito, and if he’s able to achieve a similarly sized boost next year, he could see his salary vault into the $12-13MM range in what would be his final season before free agency. At that point, assuming good health, Giolito would be poised to reach the open market in advance of his age-29 season and with nearly $25MM in arbitration earnings already in his pocket. Viewed through that lens, it’s easy to see why Giolito wasn’t swayed by the team’s $50MM offer, which could’ve kept him from reaching the market until he was set to enter his age-31 season.

White Sox Offered Lucas Giolito Four-Year/$50MM Extension Prior To 2021 Season

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The White Sox were known to be discussing a contract extension with Lucas Giolito last spring, and The Athletic’s James Fegan shares some details about the talks between the two sides.  The Sox offered Giolito a four-year, $50MM deal covering the 2021-24 seasons (Giolito’s three remaining arbitration-eligible years and his first free agent year), and there was also a club option for the 2025 campaign.

As Fegan put it, the “offer was declined without a counter made by Giolito’s camp, as it was not viewed as being suitable enough to drive further discussion.”  As a result, Giolito earned $4.14MM in 2021, as per the arbitration-avoiding deal he made with the Sox before extension talks began in earnest.  His salary for 2022 has yet to be determined, as the two sides now appear to be heading for an arbitration hearing after failing to reach an agreement before Tuesday’s filing deadline.

Giolito is looking for a $7.5MM salary and the White Sox countered with a $7.3MM figure.  Of the 31 players who didn’t agree to contracts prior to Tuesday’s deadline, Giolito’s case represents the smallest financial gap between player and team.  Furthermore, Giolito told The Chicago Sun-Times’ Daryl Van Schouwen and other reporters that negotiations got as close as a $50K difference.

“For it to come down to a 50K difference prior to the filing, it’s like, ’Come on.’  It’s an upsetting part of the process.  It’s why a lot of us don’t enjoy the business side of the process,” Giolito said.

Between the lack of progress in last year’s extension talks or this year’s arbitration talks, it remains to be seen whether or not these disputes could impact Giolito’s future in Chicago.  GM Rick Hahn told Van Schouwen and other reporters that the arbitration impasse was “a function of the arbitration process” and “not a reflection of anything to do with [Giolito].”  As for the right-hander himself, Giolito noted “Like I’ve always said about extensions, I absolutely love this team.  The more I play the more I understand my value as a player.  And I just want fair.  It’s always fair for me, that’s where I’m at.”

Going back to the 2021 extension talks, it is clear that Giolito and his representatives didn’t think the four-year/$50MM offer fit their version of “fair,” considering that Giolito was coming off his second season of front-of-the-rotation performance.  While the shortened 2020 campaign limited Giolito to 72 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.48 ERA and a 33.7% strikeout rate that ranked among the league’s best.

Back in March 2020, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd speculated that a Giolito extension could be worth around $45MM.  With another good performance in the books that season and Giolito getting a year closer to free agency, clearly a $5MM bump from Todd’s projection wasn’t enough to get Giolito’s attention.  While Chicago’s $50MM offer did top the amount of guaranteed money the Phillies gave Aaron Nola (another quality pitcher who had between three and four years of service time), Fegan writes that the Nola extension was “widely assessed as a team-friendly deal,” and also that Nola had recently had an injury scare in the form of a forearm strain.

Giolito, meanwhile, has no such injury issues, apart from a few brief IL stints due to muscle strains.  And, with Giolito again pitching well in 2021, the CAA Sports client is surely looking for an even bigger payday in any multi-year extension.  For teams like the White Sox who take a “file and trial” stance when it comes to negotiating one-year arbitration deals, more talks continue when it comes to discussing longer-term extensions, so it isn’t out of the question that the two sides can revisit the subject before things actually reach a hearing.

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