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Mitch Keller

Pirates Discussing Contract Extension With Mitch Keller

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The Pirates and representatives for right-hander Mitch Keller have been in talks about a contract extension, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.  There isn’t any sense whether or not the two sides are particularly close to an agreement, though Pirates owner Bob Nutting suggested last month that the club was looking to extend more core players now that Bryan Reynolds had completed his own long-term deal.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited Keller as a logical extension candidate at the time, and he further described Keller’s breakout over the last two seasons in a recent piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.  Since cutting back on the usage of his four-seam fastball in 2021, Keller has blossomed, with Steve observing that “fast forward to 2023, and Keller’s pitch arsenal is even more diverse thanks to a revamped cutter.  He’s throwing his four-seamer, sinker and cutter all at a 21-24% clip, mixing in a sweeper and curve that he uses about equally…It’s a much different arsenal than in 2021, when Keller was throwing 57% four-seamers, 24% cutters, 14% curveballs and mixing in a show-me changeup.”

It wasn’t like Keller’s emergence came out of nowhere, as he was a second-round pick in the 2014 draft and a regular on top-50 prospect lists during his climb up Pittsburgh’s minor league ladder.  His first few shots at the majors didn’t go well, however, as Keller posted a 6.02 ERA over 170 1/3 innings from 2019-21.

After a promising step forward in 2022, Keller has now looked more like a front-of-the-rotation arm during his excellent start to the 2023 campaign.  Today’s outing against the Orioles was the latest example, as Keller allowed just four hits and no walks while recording 13 strikeouts over seven shutout innings.  This gem improved Keller’s ERA to 2.38 over 56 2/3 IP, and just about all of his Statcast numbers are well above the league average.

Keller just turned 27 last month, and he is earning $2,437,500 this season in his first of three arbitration-eligible years.  This means Keller will be entering his age-30 season when he enters free agency during the 2025-26 offseason, unless the Pirates lock him up beforehand on an extension.

Keller’s agents at Tidal Sports Group might logically point to Logan Webb’s recent five-year, $90MM extension with the Giants as a comp for a potential deal for their client.  Webb is seven months younger than Keller, but the two have comparable big league service times and somewhat similar resumes as pitchers who went through a rough beginning to their MLB careers before posting consecutive quality seasons.

Of course, Webb had fully completed his second good year at the time of his extension while Keller only really started to pitch well midway through the 2022 campaign and his 2023 success does represent only nine starts.  That said, Keller’s price tag is only rising as he continues to post great results, so he could choose to bet on himself and wait until after the season to pursue an extension.

The fact that the perennially low-payroll Pirates are even engaged in long-term contract talks represents a turning point for the club, as while a brutal slump in May has curbed the enthusiasm of the team’s 20-9 start to the season, Pittsburgh still has a 22-19 record.  The Bucs have just one winning record in the previous seven seasons, as the team’s previous contending roster ran out of steam, and the club then engaged in a lengthy rebuilding process.

The early results have indicated that the Pirates’ rebuild may be wrapping up, and to that end, Nutting has authorized the two biggest contracts in franchise history.  While still smaller than the priciest contracts of most other teams around the majors, the Pirates signed Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM extension in April 2022, and then extended Reynolds with seven years and $100MM of new money last month.  The Pirates aren’t likely to ever become truly big spenders, yet locking up certain cornerstone talents is a proven method for smaller-market teams to gain some cost certainty over premium talent.

Pirates Could Pursue More Contract Extensions

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The Pirates’ extension of Bryan Reynolds — seven years and $100MM on top of his current $6.75MM salary — put an end to a long-running saga of trade rumors swirling around the All-Star outfielder. It’s the first nine-figure contract in franchise history and the second long-term deal with a hopeful core player of the past 14 months; Pittsburgh also signed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM deal prior to the 2022 season. Speaking at yesterday’s press conference to announce the Reynolds extension, Pirates owner Bob Nutting suggested that he hopes to work out long-term deals with additional core players (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).

Nutting noted that “to a great degree, we’re just getting started,” going on to call Reynolds’ new contract “a huge step forward for the franchise” before adding that he’s “confident we’ll have future steps as we go forward.” Pirates fans, in particular, will want to check out Gorman’s full piece for comments not only from Nutting but also from Reynolds himself and from general manager Ben Cherington.

On the one hand, it’s fairly common for owners and baseball operations leaders to offer up what’s essentially boilerplate executive-speak about wanting to extend core players on a young club. On the other, Nutting has kept a notoriously tight budget and small payroll for the Pirates. The extensions for Hayes and especially for Reynolds mark a definitive change in course for the club, and with fresh off guaranteeing his top player an additional $100MM in guaranteed money, Nutting’s words perhaps carry a bit of extra credence.

If the Bucs do plan to explore — or already have explored — long-term pacts with additional players, there are a handful of logical candidates for such a deal. In the rotation, right-handers Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller both increasingly look like solid building blocks, though they’re at very different stages of their careers. The 23-year-old Contreras doesn’t yet have a full season of Major League service time, putting his earning power on an extension considerably south of Keller. The Reds just locked up righty Hunter Greene, who was controllable for five more seasons, on a six-year, $53MM contract. Contreras is even further removed from free agency and would presumably come with a lower price tag.

Keller, meanwhile, is earning $2.4375MM in 2023 with just two more seasons of club control remaining beyond the current campaign. The 2014 second-rounder ranked as one of the game’s top pitching prospects prior to his debut in 2019, and while it’s taken some time for him to get there, Keller has begun to solidify himself as a quality starter.

Dating back to last May, when he added a sinker to his repertoire and began to rely less heavily on his four-seamer, the 27-year-old sports a 3.28 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground-ball rate in 159 1/3 innings. That includes an impressive six-inning, two-run, 10-strikeout performance against the Dodgers today. If he were to continue at this pace, he’d have a strong case in extension talks. For some context, Keller will be in the same service class following the 2023 season that Kyle Freeland (five years, $64.5MM) and Pablo Lopez (four years, $73.5MM) were when they signed their own extensions. The Bucs could try to pursue something sooner, but regardless, much of Keller’s breakout looks sustainable.

Elsewhere on the roster, closer David Bednar is a local product who’s emerged as a fan favorite and as one of the game’s better relievers. Since coming over from the Padres as part of the return for Joe Musgrove, he’s pitched to a 2.26 ERA with a 32.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 30 saves and 17 holds. His 2023 campaign has been particularly impressive, as Bednar has yielded just one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

That said, relievers are notoriously volatile on a year-to-year basis, and Bednar is already 28 years old. The Pirates control him through his age-31 season and might find some risk in locking him into an extension that would effectively be buying his age-32 campaign and perhaps a season or two thereafter.

In the lineup, the Pirates have some interesting candidates. Shortstop Oneil Cruz is currently out while recovering from a fractured ankle but has displayed some of the most tantalizing tools in all of baseball when healthy. His development is still a work in progress, particularly with regard to his approach at the plate, but few players can match his combination of power, speed and athleticism. Meanwhile, outfielder Jack Suwinski has quickly become a Statcast darling, with eye-popping exit velocity, barrel rates and sprint speed. Both young hitters are controllable through the 2028 season at present.

The Bucs have plenty of young talent beyond that grouping — some of it yet to debut in the Majors. Catchers Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are among the most highly regarded in the sport at their position. Right-handers Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester are both considered potential rotation pieces in the long term. Infielder Nick Gonzales just hit the minor league injured list with a shoulder strain today but is in Triple-A and could potentially make his debut later this year if the issue proves minor.

Broadly speaking, the Pirates have a deep and talented system, with plenty of interesting long-term pieces already on the roster and also on the cusp of debuting while biding their time in the upper minors. There’s always risk for a low-payroll club like this to lock players up so early, as the margin for error is thinner than with a deep-pocketed rival. That said, hitting a home run on an early extension can also be key in allowing teams in this payroll sphere to spend a bit more in free agency, if their core players are locked in at affordable rates. Only time will tell whether Nutting’s comments were merely lip service or the beginning of a welcome trend for Bucs fans, but regardless of which is true, the organization’s future looks increasingly bright.

Pirates Injury Notes: Hayes, Keller

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The Pirates placed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes on the 10-day injured list yesterday, retroactive to August 13.  Hayes has missed the Bucs’ last four games due to a middle-back muscle strain, and he’ll now get a few more days to recuperate while the Pirates can play with a full roster.  Kevin Padlo (recently claimed off waivers from the Mariners) was called up from Triple-A to take Hayes’ spot on the open roster.

Now in his third MLB season, Hayes has yet to fully live up to his top-prospect billing, at least at the plate.  The 25-year-old is making plenty of hard contact, but it has translated to only a .251/.323/.358 slash line and six home runs over 434 plate appearances this season.  After exploding onto the scene with a 1.124 OPS in 95 PA in his 2020 rookie campaign, Hayes has only a .685 OPS in 830 subsequent PA in the majors.

On the plus side, Hayes has already established himself as an elite defensive player.  Hayes leads all players in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (+16) and only four players have more Outs Above Average than Hayes’ +12 total.  While Nolan Arenado is also up near the top of both lists, Hayes certainly looks like at least a finalist for this year’s NL Gold Glove at third base.

It doesn’t appear as though Hayes’ injury is too serious, so the Pirates can only hope he can return to action in short order and continue to garner more experience.  A cornerstone piece of Pittsburgh’s rebuild, Hayes signed an eight-year, $70MM extension in April that stands as the largest contract in Pirates history.

Mitch Keller is another younger player the Bucs had tabbed as a key part of the future, and like Hayes, Keller’s early returns in his MLB career have been mixed.  It also seems like Keller is facing some injury problems, as right shoulder fatigue forced him out of last night’s start against the Red Sox after two innings of work.

Keller’s average velocity was down on all of his pitches, yet the right-hander chalked the performance up as “just one of those days.”  Speaking to MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos and other reporters, Keller said his shoulder was feeling better after the game, though it remains to be seen if the Pirates might at least skip or push back Keller’s next start, even if an IL trip isn’t necessary.

After a rough 2021 season that saw him post a 6.17 ERA/4.98 SIERA in 100 2/3 innings, Keller’s 2022 campaign has at least been an improvement in bottom-line numbers.  The right-hander has a 4.49 ERA/4.29 SIERA in 114 1/3 frames this year, due in part to only a .329 BABIP (down from his sky-high .388 figure last year).  However, any above-average BABIP isn’t a good sign for a pitcher who relies on grounders more than strikeouts, as Keller has only a 20.7% strikeout rate over his career and his walk rates have also been below average.

Keller will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, and his relative lack of success at the MLB level should result in a pretty modest 2023 salary.  Considering the number of question marks in Pittsburgh’s rotation, Keller probably isn’t likely to be non-tendered, though a trade might be a possibility if the Pirates no longer see Keller as a building block.

2022 Should Be A Key Season For Pair Of Pirates’ Former Top Prospects

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Amidst another rebuilding year, the Pirates have ample uncertainty in the starting rotation. Free agent signee José Quintana is going to get one spot, with the Bucs hoping he performs well enough to be flipped midseason for younger talent. JT Brubaker had solid enough strikeout and walk numbers over 24 starts last year to get another opportunity, while Zach Thompson — acquired from the Marlins in the Jacob Stallings deal — is likely to be in the mix.

Among those likely under consideration for spots at the back of the rotation are two former top prospects: right-handers Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson. Both pitchers are in their mid-20s, and they were each among Baseball America’s top 100 overall farmhands as recently as three years ago. At the peak of their prospect status, both pitchers were viewed as potential long-term members of a starting rotation. Yet neither has yet established himself as such, and one could argue that 2022 will function as a make-or-break sort of season for both.

Keller has been a familiar name for Pirates fans for some time. A second-round pick out of high school in 2014, he emerged as one of the sport’s most promising pitching prospects after a dominating showing in Low-A in 2016. Entering the 2017 campaign, BA considered him the game’s #22 overall farmhand. He’d remain among the top 60 prospects in each of the following three seasons, pairing a mid-90s fastball with a plus curveball that led many to project him as a future mid-rotation arm.

The Iowa native made his big league debut in 2019. While he allowed a 7.13 ERA over his first 48 MLB innings, Keller was plagued by an astounding .475 batting average on balls in play. His 28.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk percentage and 11.8% swinging strike rate all looked like indicators he could indeed be a mid-rotation or better arm in the making. Keller was limited to just five starts in the shortened 2020 campaign, ironically posting a very good ERA (2.91) but dreadful peripherals. Still, as he entered his age-25 season last year, Keller looked to be a key piece of the Bucs’ long-term plans.

That’s perhaps more of a question now, though. He started 23 games and worked 100 2/3 innings, but he managed just a 6.17 ERA. As with 2019, some horrible ball in play results (.388 opponents’ BABIP) played a role in his struggles keeping runs off the board. But Keller’s fielding-independent numbers weren’t nearly as impressive last year as they’d been during his debut campaign. His 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk percentage were each a few points worse than the respective league averages. Among the 129 hurlers with 100+ frames, Keller placed 121st in swinging strikes (8.2%).

Keller’s fastball velocity has ticked down a bit since his prospect peak, but a 93.9 MPH average fastball is still more than sufficient. Arguably more concerning is that none of his offspeed pitches was particularly effective. Only his slider was in the realm of average in terms of generating whiffs, and each of his slider, curve and changeup were hit hard. Finding a consistently reliable secondary pitch figures to be a focus for Keller and pitching coach Oscar Marin. If he doesn’t show promise in that regard, the front office could be faced with a tough decision. Keller’s on track to reach arbitration eligibility next offseason, and he could be a non-tender candidate if he posts another season like his 2021 campaign.

The urgency might be even greater for Wilson. While he’s not set to reach arbitration until after the 2023 season (unless the union succeeds in its efforts to expand eligibility for players in the 2-3 year service bucket during CBA talks), Wilson is facing roster pressure of a different sort. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning the Pirates would need to make him available to the rest of the league if they decide to bump him off the active roster.

An overslot fourth-round selection out of high school by the Braves in 2016, Wilson posted absurd numbers in the low minors over his first two years in pro ball. By 2018, the North Carolina native was traversing four levels. He began that season in High-A but pitched his way to the majors by August. Wilson only made three MLB appearances down the stretch, but that he was in the big leagues by age 20 was itself a remarkable accomplishment.

Wilson headed into 2019 as a consensus top 100 prospect, albeit at the back half of most lists. While he wasn’t viewed as a future top-of-the-rotation arm, most expected Wilson could cement himself within the Atlanta rotation in short order. He spent the bulk of 2019 in Triple-A, though, and he was shuttled between MLB and the alternate training site throughout 2020. Wilson started only six big league games between those two years.

Last year, Wilson got his first extended MLB opportunity. He made eight starts apiece with the Braves and Pirates, who acquired him at the trade deadline as part of the Richard Rodríguez swap. Unfortunately, he didn’t find much success at either stop. Between the two clubs, he combined for a 5.35 ERA across 74 innings.

Wilson showed strong control (6.8% walk rate) but struggled with home runs and only fanned 14.3% of opponents on a meager 8.7% swinging strike rate. Wilson, like Keller, suffered from an inability to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary pitch. He used his fastball nearly as much as any starter around the league, likely playing a part in both his lack of whiffs and home run issues.

For both Keller and Wilson, the 2022 campaign looks likely to be a key developmental season. Wilson will need to pitch well enough to stick on the active roster; Keller can be sent back to the minors, but he’s likely to be in his final pre-arbitration year. As they rebuild, the Pirates can afford to give the former top prospects another opportunity. Yet if Keller and/or Wilson are to establish themselves as rotation cogs, as many anticipated they would a few years ago, they’ll have to find more success against big league hitters than they have in recent seasons.

Pirates Option Mitch Keller, Place Trevor Cahill On 10-Day Injured List

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Mitch Keller has been optioned to Triple-A, per Kevin Gorman of the Tribune-Review (via Twitter). Trevor Cahill has also been placed on the injured list with a left calf injury.

This is a disappointing, if potentially short-term development for the Pirates’ young right-hander. Keller is still just 25-years-old, but he’s had a rough go of it on the hill in 2021. In 12 starts, Keller has been tagged for a 7.04 ERA across 47 1/3 innings. A 4.95 FIP and .355 BABIP points to some bad luck for Keller this season. He has a 22.4 percent strikeout rate and 12.7 percent walk rate, and while both numbers are below-average, they do represent an improvement over his 2020 output.

Per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, manager Derek Shelton said, “Mitch Keller is going to be a good major league pitcher. When young players, young pitchers have struggles, it’s our job to come up with a program and a plan to help them get back to this level and be successful at this level. That’s what we’re doing with Mitch.”

Cahill has similarly been dealt some hard luck as the veteran has posted a 6.57 ERA, but just 4.04 FIP across 37 innings. In the short term, Wil Crowe will step into Cahill’s spot in the rotation. The former Nationals’ farmhand has eight appearances on the season (seven starts) with a 7.26 ERA/6.12 FIP across 31 innings.

Geoff Hartlieb has also been recalled, notes John Dreker of Piratesbaseball.com. The 27-year-old has just one appearance this season, though he posted a 3.63 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work last season.

Pirates Notes: Stallings, Hayes, Moran, Polanco, Keller

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Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings left this afternoon’s game against the Giants in the seventh inning after being struck by a Buster Posey foul tip. The Pirates announced he’s dealing with a left quad contusion (via Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). He was replaced by Michael Pérez. Stallings has rather quietly gotten off to a very good start to the season, hitting .257/.370/.446 over his first 119 plate appearances. Stallings and Pérez are the only backstops on Pittsburgh’s 40-man, so the team would need to make a roster move if the 31-year-old is forced to miss time. The Pirates have a pair of former big leaguers, Andrew Susac and Joe Hudson, splitting time at the position with Triple-A Indianapolis.

More out of Pittsburgh:

  • The organization is hopeful third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes will be ready to embark on a minor league rehab assignment within the next several days, general manager Ben Cherington said on 93.7 FM The Fan (h/t to Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). One of the sport’s top prospects and a popular preseason pick to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award, Hayes has been limited to seven plate appearances this season by a wrist injury. He isn’t eligible to return from the 60-day IL until June 3. The 24-year-old got off to an incredible start to his big league career last season, hitting .376/.442/.682 over his first 95 plate appearances.
  • Cherington also noted that there’s some hope each of Colin Moran and Phillip Evans can return from the injured list without needing to embark on rehab assignments (via Gorman). Moran went down last week with a left groin injury, halting a strong .297/.352/.468 start to the year. Evans began the season blistering hot but quickly cooled off. He went on the shelf earlier this week with a hamstring strain.
  • Corner outfielder Gregory Polanco and starter Mitch Keller will continue to get opportunities despite disappointing starts to the season, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic. Coming off back-to-back down years, Polanco has managed just a .206/.284/.351 line over 109 plate appearances to start 2021. Those struggles make it highly unlikely the Pirates will wind up exercising their $12.5MM option on Polanco for next season, and it’s difficult to imagine the rebuilding club will find much of a market for him at the trade deadline. Nevertheless, Cherington pointed to Polanco’s somewhat promising batted ball metrics (including an 80th percentile hard hit rate) as reason for continuing to hope for a bounce back. Keller has been up and down over his first three MLB seasons, but it’s not particularly surprising the Pirates plan to give the 25-year-old time to work through his struggles given his prospect pedigree and mid-90’s velocity.

Pirates To Activate Mitch Keller From Injured List

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The Pirates are set to activate right-hander Mitch Keller from the injured list in advance of tomorrow’s doubleheader against the Reds, manager Derek Shelton told reporters (including Adam Berry of MLB.com). He’ll get the start for one of those games.

The 14-29 Pirates have long been buried in the National League’s postseason field. Nevertheless, it’ll be nice to get a handful of starts from Keller down the stretch, as the 24-year-old is a critical part of the organization’s future. The former top prospect only has a 6.63 ERA in his first 55.2 MLB innings, but his 3.77 FIP hints at the mid-rotation upside for which he’s long been lauded.

While Keller entered 2020 looking like a potential breakout candidate, he’s been limited to just two starts by left side discomfort. Out since August 2, he’s now seemingly in line for three more starts to stake a claim to a spot in Pittsburgh’s 2021 rotation. There should be ample opportunity for Keller to pitch himself back into that mix. Joe Musgrove profiles as one of the league’s more likely trade candidates this offseason, while Chris Archer is a good bet to be cut loose on the heels of thoracic outlet surgery. Trevor Williams has struggled, while Chad Kuhl’s solid 3.38 ERA comes with much shakier peripherals.

NL Injury Notes: Pham, Smyly, Turner, Pirates

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Padres outfielder Tommy Pham is less than a month out from a broken hamate bone, but he’s making rapid progress. Pham resumed live on-field batting practice today, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. The 32-year-old had been off to a sluggish start to the year but will still have some time to make his presence felt as the Pads try to angle for postseason position.

More injury updates from the National League …

  • The Giants are preparing to welcome back southpaw Drew Smyly tomorrow, manager Gabe Kapler tells reporters including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). It’ll be interesting to see what the veteran hurler can deliver down the stretch. Though he hasn’t been available for many innings, he turned in a few interesting outings that hinted at a resurgence.
  • While there’s little reason to rush, the Dodgers are close to activating rehabbing third baseman Justin Turner. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link) that Turner still hasn’t put his tender hamstring through the full paces. Nevertheless, the club expects to have him active within the week, though Turner could initially function as a DH.
  • The Pirates provided a few pitching rehab updates, some more promising than others (via MLB.com’s Adam Berry, on Twitter). Mitch Keller (side injury) and Jameson Taillon (Tommy John) are each throwing sim games, while reliever Keone Kela is now participating in mound work. It’s still unclear how much MLB action each of those hurlers will be capable of late this year, but that’s generally encouraging news. The situation is different for fellow righty Yacksel Rios, who remains sidelined by shoulder woes. He was shut down after symptoms flared up.

Pirates Place Mitch Keller, Michael Feliz On 10-Day Injured List

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The Pirates placed right-handers Mitch Keller and Michael Feliz on the 10-day injured list, the club announced.  Keller is dealing with left side discomfort while Feliz is suffering from right forearm discomfort.  Right-hander Cody Ponce and southpaw Sam Howard were called up to fill the two spots on the 30-man active roster.

Keller and Feliz both left the Pirates’ 4-3 loss to the Cubs on Saturday.  Keller tossed 2 2/3 innings before bouncing a pitch to Willson Contreras and promptly asked for a trainer visit to the mound before leaving the game.  Feliz also made an immediate departure in the eighth inning, following a pitch to Jason Heyward.

Keller’s injury hints at a possible oblique strain, and even minor oblique problems have been known to sideline players for at least a couple of weeks.  If the strain ends up being more severe, Keller’s entire season could possibly be in jeopardy.  Feliz’s issue is perhaps even more ominous considering how forearm injuries can sometimes lead to Tommy John surgery, though he doesn’t have a past history of forearm or elbow issues.

Losing the two pitchers is a big hit to a Pirates team that is already short on reliable pitching options.  In the bigger picture, Keller’s injury might also present a significant setback to one of the team’s top young assets, as Keller has been a consensus top-100 prospect for the last four years.  He didn’t impress in his first Major League action last season (a 7.13 ERA over 48 innings), though the 24-year-old was still slated to be a major part of Pittsburgh’s rotation plans both in the present and in the future.

Feliz may still be best known for being part of the four-player package sent to the Pirates from the Astros in the January 2018 Gerrit Cole trade, though the righty quietly delivered some solid bottom-line numbers in 2019.  Feliz posted a 3.99 ERA, 2.70 K/BB rate, and an 11.7 K/9 over 56 1/3 innings, having some problems with home runs (1.8 HR/9) but also limiting opposing batters to just a 29.2% hard-hit ball rate.

Both Ponce and Howard will be making their debuts on the Pirates’ roster.  Howard posted a 5.87 ERA over 23 innings with the Rockies in 2018-19 before being claimed off waivers during the offseason.  He moved exclusively to relief pitching in 2019 after mostly working as a starter in his five previous pro seasons in Colorado’s farm system, and Howard has also displayed some reverse-splits tendencies over his career.

In Ponce’s case, this will be his first time in the big leagues.  A second-round pick for the Brewers in the 2015 draft, Ponce came to Pittsburgh as the return for Jordan Lyles last July, and Ponce owns a 3.83 ERA, 3.36 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9 over 418 2/3 minor league innings.  He has worked as both a starter and reliever in the minors, so Ponce could potentially get some rotation work for the Bucs either as a proper starter or as part of a piggyback system.

On Pirates’ Recent Moves

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The Pirates’ GM Ben Cherington emerged from his new office this week with the first batch of transactions since he took over in Pittsburgh. The Starling Marte trade to Arizona was the headline-grabbiest of the bunch, wherein Cherington added two high-ceiling, but far-away prospects to Pittsburgh system.

A flurry of low-key pickups followed for Cherington as the Pirates bought  in bulk: Charlie Tilson, Andrew Susac, JT Riddle, Robbie Erlin and Derek Holland signed minor league deals this week. Cherington gives Erlin a decent shot of joining the bullpen, which is otherwise without a lefty except for rotation candidate Steven Brault, per The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel.

Holland, too, could end up in the bullpen, but like Brault, he’ll be given a shot at the rotation. Holland’s glory days as a Texas Ranger are long in the rearview, but his 2018 with the Giants at least gives the perception of a raised ceiling for Holland after otherwise forgettable stints with each Chicago team. It was just two seasons ago that Holland put up 171 1/3 innings with an impressive 3.57 ERA/3.87 FIP across 36 games for the Giants.

Holland’s shoe game remained on-point in 2019, but he struggled on the hill, both for the Giants and then for the Cubs. He only got 7 turns through the rotation to start the season, but 26 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings earned a demotion to the bullpen, where he stayed until the deadline trade to the Cubs. The Cubs relied on him as a lefty reliever out of the pen, but he struggled there, too, marking a 10.50 ERA in September, contributing to the Cubs’ tailspin.

Still, he’ll come into camp representing a veteran floor for the Pittsburgh rotation as Brault and Mitch Keller try to earn their spot. If the young Pirate arms aren’t ready to take the ball every five days, Holland could find himself back in a big league rotation in 2020.

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