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Corbin Carroll Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Mets right-hander Kodai Senga came in second while Dodgers outfielder James Outman placed third.

Carroll was selected to Arizona’s roster in late August of last year, allowing him to get a taste of the majors but without exhausting his rookie status. He fared extremely well in that audition, hitting .260/.330/.500 in his first 115 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 131, indicating he was 31% better than the league average hitter in that time. The D’Backs felt confident enough in Carroll based on that showing, and his work as a minor leaguer, to give him an eight-year extension with a guarantee of $111MM.

They were hoping he would be an integral part of the club and help them make the postseason for the first time since 2017. He went on to have an incredible showing in his first full season in the majors, hitting 25 home runs and stealing 54 bases. His .285/.362/.506 line led to a 131 wRC+ and he also got strong grades for his outfield defense. He produced 6.0 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs while Baseball Reference had him at 5.4. The club did indeed break their postseason drought, snagging a Wild Card spot and eventually going all the way to the World Series.

While the award is surely thrilling for Carroll and the Snakes on its own, there are other implications of Carroll taking the trophy. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Carroll, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #2 prospect on all three of those lists. Gunnar Henderson, who got the AL trophy today, was #1.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Carroll did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the Diamondbacks, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Senga also had a strong season, his first after coming over from Japan. He made 29 starts for the Mets with a 2.98 earned run average, 29.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. Players considered by MLB to be foreign professionals, as Senga is, aren’t eligible to earn PPI picks for their clubs. Outman also had a solid campaign, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 16 bases. He struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances but offset that somewhat by walking at a 12% clip. His .248/.353/.437 batting line led to a wRC+ of 118 and he also graded out well in the field. He wasn’t considered a top 100 prospect coming into the year and wouldn’t have qualified for a PPI pick even if he surpassed Senga for second place.

The voting was unanimous, per the vote tally at BBWAA, with Carroll getting all 30 first-place votes. Senga got 22 second-place votes and Outman got five. Other players getting votes were Nolan Jones of the Rockies, Eury Pérez of the Marlins, Patrick Bailey of the Giants and three Reds: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nick Krall Discusses Upcoming Reds Offseason

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Reds GM Nick Krall spoke with reporters recently during the club’s end-of-season press conference, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com and Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The presser covered a wide array of topics from the club’s offseason plans and budget, to a retrospective on Cincinnati’s inaction at the trade deadline this year, to the club’s impending club option decision on future Hall of Famer Joey Votto.

Regarding the trade deadline, Krall stood firm on his decision to largely stand pat this summer, only adding left-handed reliever Sam Moll to a club that was in first place in the NL Central on deadline day but wound up with a record of just 82-80 on the season after going just 23-31 after the calendar flipped to August. Starting pitching was by far the club’s biggest unfilled need, as they sported an MLB-worst rotation ERA of 5.91 following the trade deadline.

When asked about the club’s inaction, Krall noted that rival teams set exorbitant asking prices involving players who contributed to the major league roster this season. As relayed by Sheldon, Krall indicated that right-hander Connor Phillips, infielders Matt McLain and Spencer Steer, first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand and left-hander Andrew Abbott were all checked in upon by rival clubs this past summer, with Abbott in particular being the requested return for a rental player.

Looking ahead to the offseason, the Reds have a glut of position players between which they’ll need to sort through, to say nothing of potential external additions or the looming decision on Votto. On the infield, the club sports McLain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz, and Jonathan India all in need of regular at-bats. Meanwhile, the outfield picture features Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Stuart Fairchild, and Will Benson. Nick Senzel is another piece of the puzzle with experience in both the infield and the outfield, but he appears to be a candidate for a trade or non-tender after another weak offensive season where he slashed just .236/.297/.399 in 330 trips to the plate.

Krall made clear that the club hasn’t discussed moving either India or De La Cruz to the outfield as a potential way to clear the infield logjam. He did note, however, that Steer played well in the outfield corners across 38 starts at the positions this season, leaving the door open to more time spent on the grass in 2024. Of course, installing Steer as a regular outfielder would cut into the playing time available for Friedl, Fraley, Fairchild, and Benson. That’s particularly true of Fraley and Benson, both of whom were largely limited to the outfield corners and DH this season with little to no reps in center. However the club ultimately sorts out playing time for their wealth of young players, Krall made clear that manager David Bell will return in 2024- hardly a surprise after the club extended him earlier this year- and that he’ll retain his entire coaching staff for next season, as well.

Regarding Votto, Krall indicated that the club hasn’t yet discussed whether or not to pick up his $20MM club option for 2024. The option is effectively a $13MM decision given the $7MM buyout Votto stands to be paid if the option is declined. The decision on Votto is due five days after the World Series. In discussing Votto’s option, Krall revealed that the organization has yet to determine the club’s baseball operations budget for 2024, with meetings regarding the topic scheduled for next week. That said, the club’s unsettled budget situation hasn’t stopped the Reds from broaching the topic of extensions with some of their young players, as Krall noting that more pre-arbitration extensions in the vein of the one right-hander Hunter Greene inked earlier this year were a “possibility.”

The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer adds that a major stumbling block for the sides is how much playing time will be available to Votto next year. Even in moving Steer to the outfield full-time, the Reds would have five infielders in need of regular playing time next season on top of the crowded outfield mix. Offseason trades could help clear the positional logjam, of course, but the sort of trades available to the Reds this offseason, much like their impending decision on Votto, would be impacted by the club’s budget for next season. Wittenmyer adds that Brandon Belt’s impending departure for Votto’s hometown Blue Jays could add another wrinkle for the sides, as he describes Toronto as “the one franchise besides the Reds that would benefit from significant marquee name value from Votto beyond baseball performance.”

Reds Notes: Newman, India, Lively, Marte, Fraley

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Noelvi Marte’s arrival in the majors is the big news out of Cincinnati today, but Marte’s promotion came with a notable corresponding move.  The Reds announced that infielder Kevin Newman was placed (retroactive to August 16) on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain.

The severity of the injury isn’t yet known, though even if Newman has suffered a Grade 1 strain, any setback or lingering effects could mean that his 2023 season is over.  The 30-year-old has hit .253/.311/.364 over 253 plate appearances in his first season with the Reds, after being acquired from the Pirates back in November.

Newman and Jose Barrero shared the starting shortstop role before Matt McLain’s promotion in mid-May, as Barrero was ultimately sent to the minors and Newman became a pure utilityman.  Newman made some starts at second base and third baseman, but even that playing time dwindled as more and more of Cincinnati’s star infield prospects gradually made their way to the Show.

This is Newman’s second IL stint of the year, after he missed a 10-day minimum in July dealing with gastritis.  Heading into the trade deadline, Newman was seen as a potential or even likely trade chip given the Reds’ increasingly crowded infield picture, yet Cincinnati either couldn’t find an appropriate deal or simply opted to hang onto the veteran as an experienced depth option.  Rather than a trade, this oblique injury has now unfortunately taken Newman out of the picture for at least the next 10 days.

Manager David Bell provided the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith (X link) and other reporters with updates on other injured Reds players, including the news that Jonathan India will undergo another MRI on Thursday.  Since a previous MRI revealed a worsened tear in India’s plantar fascia, the second baseman was already expected to be out of action until at least a week into September, with some question as to whether or not India would be able to return at all this season.

The next MRI comes a few days before the end of India’s planned two-week shutdown from running, so the test will reveal if the tear has continued to widen, or if the shutdown has been effective in at least limiting the damage.  It seems likely that India will require some type of procedure to address his plantar fasciitis, though he and the Reds hope that any surgery might be able to be held off until the offseason.

Bell also said that Ben Lively will make another rehab outing before the club considers reinstating him from the 15-day IL.  Lively has twice been sidelined due to right pectoral strains this season, with his most recent absence starting with his IL placement on August 2.  With his 15 days now up, Lively is eligible to be activated at any time, though he has thrown only 5 2/3 combined innings over two previous rehab starts, with an ungainly 15.88 ERA.

The injuries to India and Newman have provided an unwelcome answer to Cincinnati’s potential infield surplus, as there is now plenty of room for the Reds to find playing time for their up-and-comers.  Bell said that Marte will be the regular third baseman, with Spencer Steer now moving into more regular work in left field.  Steer has already seen a good deal of left field time this season, as his versatility has been almost as useful to the Reds as his potent bat.  Steer has bounced between left field, first base, and third base, and also even picked up a few appearances as a second baseman.

Jake Fraley is another Reds player looking to return from the IL before 2023 is over, though Fraley told Goldsmith that he’ll need offseason surgery to properly fix a fracture in his left foot and a cracked fourth metatarsal.  Fraley was presented with the option of undergoing the season-ending procedure now, but he is instead trying to tough it out, ramping up his baseball activities to include a live batting practice today and an increased running program.

There’s certainly some real risk for Fraley, as he said that doctors told him that playing on the fractured foot could result in a clear break.  However, “the reason why they’re ok with me playing through this is that even if I do something like that, which would be a worst case scenario, it doesn’t change the recovery time of the surgery,” Fraley said, noting that he is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training.  Fraley is willing to gamble further injury in order to be part of the Reds’ playoff push, saying “if you tell me there’s a 1% chance with a cool team like this, I’m going all-in.”

The Reds’ Less Heralded Breakout Rookie

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The Reds are MLB’s most surprising first-place team heading into the All-Star Break. Cincinnati is nine games above .500 and a game clear of the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re 24-12 since the start of June, largely thanks to an influx of rookie talent.

Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have gotten plenty of attention, while Andrew Abbott has quickly ascended to the role of staff ace with Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene injured. Their midseason promotions have deservedly come with plenty of fanfare. They’re not the only rookies in Cincinnati having quality seasons, though.

Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle at last summer’s deadline, first reached the majors in September. While he struggled in that 28-game cameo, the Reds made clear Steer would get a chance to play regularly out of the gate. Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas in January and made Steer their Opening Day third baseman.

The 25-year-old wasn’t long for the hot corner. By the end of April, the Reds had kicked him across the diamond to first base. That put a lot of pressure on the former third-round pick to produce offensively. He’s done just that, finishing the year’s unofficial first half with a .277/.367/.477 batting line over 376 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 14 home runs, walked at an excellent 11.2% rate, and kept his strikeouts to a modest 18.9% clip.

Steer has demonstrated a well-rounded offensive profile. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. He’s making contact at an above-average rate. When he puts the bat on the ball, he tends to make solid contact. Just over 40% of Steer’s batted balls have been hit hard (an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater), a mark that’s a couple percentage points above league average.

Prospect evaluators have generally suggested Steer’s raw power potential is fringe-average. That’s atypical for a first baseman, but he’s shown just enough pop and a knack for getting the ball in the air. Steer hits a number of fly-balls, and while they’re not hit with overwhelming power — his 92.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly-balls is exactly league average — it has been sufficient. That’s particularly true at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; Steer is slugging .497 with a .204 ISO at home and .461 with a .197 ISO on the road.

That production has been enough to solidify Steer as an everyday presence in David Bell’s lineup. That came mostly at first base in the early summer. He’s seen a little more left field time of late with Joey Votto now healthy. His initial third base position has essentially become De La Cruz’s domain.

Coincidentally, Steer’s excellent start has probably held off Encarnacion-Strand’s debut. The latter is mashing at a .321/.392/.620 clip with 20 homers in 65 games for Triple-A Louisville. He’s done nothing but rake since joining the professional ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2021. On many clubs, Encarnacion-Strand would already be in the majors.

There simply hasn’t been room in Cincinnati. The Reds aren’t going to call up the 23-year-old corner infielder to serve as a bench bat. Votto has been great since returning from the injured list. De La Cruz is entrenched at hot corner with McLain at shortstop. Steer’s presence in the first base/corner outfield/designated hitter mix means there aren’t many at-bats to go around, barring injury.

That’s a nice short-term “problem” to have. Encarnacion-Strand figures to get a crack before too long as injuries necessitate. From a broader perspective, the Mahle trade added a pair of promising infielders to the upper levels of the Cincinnati organization. It looks like a massive coup for the Reds.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, they got very little out of the deal. Injuries kept Mahle to just four starts down the stretch last season. He started five games this year before a May Tommy John surgery ended his season and likely his time as a Twin. The right-hander is headed to free agency and could look for a buy-low two-year deal to finish his rehab with an eye towards a late-2024 return and full ’25 season.

Cincinnati controls Steer through the 2028 campaign. He won’t reach arbitration until after the ’25 season. Encarnacion-Strand is controllable through at least 2029, depending on the time of his MLB promotion and whether he’s subsequently optioned back to the minors. Left-hander Steve Hajjar, the third piece in the Mahle trade, has already been flipped to the Guardians as one of two minor leaguers for outfielder Will Benson.

With Steer contributing at the big league level, the Mahle swap has already helped the Reds emerge as playoff contenders quicker than most had anticipated. They can take the opposite approach to this summer’s deadline, likely by acquiring pitching help.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Quick Hits: Orioles, Nationals, Steer

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias told Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on Sunday that he expects top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez to crack the team’s Opening Day rotation out of camp this spring and that he also believes top outfield prospect Colton Cowser will be ready to make his MLB debut at some point in 2023.

Rodriguez was striding confidently toward Baltimore last summer before he suffered Grade 2 right lat strain while working in a game at Triple-A Norfolk in early June. He didn’t return to action in the minors until September, and by the time he got properly stretched out again, the O’s chances of a late-season push to the playoffs had fully cratered. The 23-year-old ultimately finished with a 2.62 ERA, 109 strikeouts and 28 walks in 75 2/3 innings (17 starts) between High-A Aberdeen, Double-A Bowie and Norfolk. He’s recorded a career 2.47 ERA with 419 strikeouts in 292 total professional frames since the Orioles selected him 11th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft, but the lineups and environments of the AL East obviously present a far greater test than what he’s seen on the farm.

Cowser, the No. 5 overall pick from the 2021 MLB Draft, also reached the Triple-A level in 2022 and produced an overall .278/.406/.469 batting line with 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases in his 138 minor league games. The 22-year-old has experience at all three outfield spots and boasts an .895 OPS so far as a pro. If there’s an injury to Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins or Anthony Santander, the ETA on Cowser could further shrink.

A brighter future is rapidly coming into focus at Camden Yards.

  • Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo spoke glowingly of the organization’s young players and rising prospects at the club’s Hot Stove event for full-season-ticket holders this weekend, as relayed by Stephen Mears of TalkNats.com. CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, Keibert Ruiz, Cade Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray all earned a specific mention. “This is the most lush and successful prospect list that we’ve ever had,” Rizzo said. “It’s the most talented players we’ve ever had in the farm system at one time.” The big buzz is that Cavalli could be positioned to join Gore and Gray in Washington’s season-opening starting rotation with Stephen Strasburg’s health still a lingering uncertainty.
  • Spencer Steer acknowledged at a Reds Caravan event over the weekend that he has his sights set on the everyday third base job in Cincinnati this season. “I’m going to do everything I can to win that spot,” he told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. “I think it’s doable and attainable. That will be my focus: getting into that lineup and staying in that lineup.” Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline last August in the return package for Tyler Mahle, the 25-year-old Steer went on to bat .211/.306/.326 across his first 28 big league games. He was slashing .274/.364/.515 in the minors prior to his promotion to the Reds’ roster.

Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Brown, Peraza, Steer, Aranda

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It’s a September call-ups edition of Big Hype Prospects. MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Anthony Franco already highlighted each club’s initial promotions. We’ll use that list to focus in on the most interesting inclusions and snubs.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Gunnar Henderson, 21, SS/3B, BAL (MLB)
8 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .375/.375/.750

Two games into his Major League debut, Henderson has already supplied a bevy of highlights in the field, at the plate, and on the basepaths. The legend will only grow. The Orioles second number one overall prospect to be promoted this season, Henderson’s arrival could help spur the club to a postseason berth. Of all the players promoted by contenders, he has the most impactful potential. While most playoff-bound clubs feature relatively complete rosters, Baltimore has regularly started Rougned Odor (406 PA, 0.1 fWAR). Additionally, third baseman Ramon Urias (2.0 fWAR) hasn’t hit much since late-July. Working Henderson into the infield mix should prove a net-positive in September even if he has some growing pains along the way. He’s started one game at third and shortstop.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

Depending on the seriousness of Justin Verlander’s calf strain, Brown might draw a start or three down the stretch this season. Initially, he’ll be employed out of the bullpen with Cristian Javier rejoining the rotation in Verlander’s spot.

This season, Brown successfully built upon a decent 2021 campaign in which longstanding command issues led to muted results. Regardless of his future role, the stuff should play. The right-hander features premium fastball velocity and a pair of potent breaking balls. The curve pairs particularly well with his heater. A pitcher scouting report is never complete without a comment about a “still-developing” changeup. The success of players like Spencer Strider suggests a changeup or even a third offering of any kind shouldn’t be viewed as a requirement. If Brown ultimately stuggles as a starter, it’ll be more due to his lack of command than his repertoire.

One odd little wrinkle: Brown posted a 54.2 percent ground ball rate this season. That’s roughly in-line with past performances. What makes it odd is the way his fastball and curve tunnel together lend themselves to a fly ball profile. I’ll be watching closely to gain a better understanding of how he uses his repertoire.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (MLB)
(AAA) 429 PA, 19 HR, 33 SB, .259/.329/.448

As expected, the Yankees opted to grant Peraza his first taste of the Majors. Many Yankees fans were clamoring for Anthony Volpe to leapfrog Peraza straight from Double-A. Peraza profiles as a fairly classic shortstop prospect. Defensively, he’s smooth and athletic. In an era riddled with oversized shortstops who post positive defensive metrics mostly due to positioning, Peraza should comfortably stand out as a quality defender.

His hitting remains a work in progress. The fantasy-oriented among you will surely note the excellent combination of power and speed. Yet, there’s potentially a deeper issue with his triple-slash line. His plate discipline and feel for contact haven’t been as effective as many hoped. He remains quite young and could certainly continue to make gains in those areas. Early in his career, expect Major League pitchers to prey upon his willingness to expand the strike zone.

Spencer Steer, 24, 2B/3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 492 PA, 23 HR, 4 SB, .274/.364/.515

A gamer the Reds picked up at the trade deadline from the Twins, Steer is poised to fill an everyday utility role in Cincinnati for the next half decade or more. He profiles as an excellent fit for Great American Ballpark. While he’s hit perhaps too many grounders since joining the Reds org, he’s historically skewed towards fly ball contact. His raw power is a tad fringy for his pulled, fly ball contact profile, but GABP is often the gift that keeps on giving to fly ball hitters. No matter how his batted ball profile eventually shakes out, he has sufficient discipline and contact ability to stick in the Majors. He might not ever be an All-Star, but he looks like somebody who should carve out a tidy career.

Jonathan Aranda, 24, 1B/2B, TBR (MLB)
(AAA) 465 PA, 18 HR, 4 SB, .318/.394/.521

Aranda isn’t truly considered a top prospect due to physical attributes scouts have a hard time accepting. However, he has advanced feel for barreling the ball. He’s no better than league average from a raw power perspective, possibly even minus, but he makes up for it via a lofty, contact-driven BABIP and a healthy HR/FB ratio. He’s not a conventional prospect as he’s a tad undersized for first base and isn’t really sufficiently fleet-footed for a utility role. However, the bat should play, and the Rays are absolutely the right org for figuring out how to squeeze him into the lineup without any detrimental effects. With Brandon Lowe once again on the injured list, Aranda could bounce between second base and designated hitter. He also has minimal experience in left field.

Five More

Ken Waldichuk, OAK (24): Waldichuk made his debut on Thursday. His command woes were on full display even while Nationals hitters were clearly uncomfortable. The Washington offense is best considered a Quad-A unit. We’ll see how Waldichuk fairs against true Major League caliber opponents later this month.

Spencer Torkelson, DET (23): No longer technically a prospect because he made 298 plate appearances earlier in the season, Torkelson is nonetheless still a development piece. If one is hunting for positives, Torkelson hit particularly well at Triple-A in 58 plate appearances since mid-August. On the whole, he posted a modest 100 wRC+ in 155 Triple-A plate appearances – hardly inspiring output for a former Top 10 prospect. He rejoined the big league lineup tonight.

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Perhaps the most-notable snub, Jung has thrashed Triple-A pitching in 83 plate appearances. The Rangers are using guarded language when talking about when they’ll promote their top prospect. I’m now inclined to believe they intend to hold off on promoting him until next season. While it’s certainly plausible that they want another year of club control over Jung, he’s not exactly… young. It’s equally plausible the Rangers legitimately believe remaining in Triple-A will be better for Jung’s health and development.

Esteury Ruiz, MIL (23): Following the Josh Hader trade, many (myself included) thought Ruiz would immediately join the Brewers outfield mix. Then, when they consistently passed him over even as the Major League club floundered in the NL Central, it became clear they didn’t believe he could improve upon the work of Tyrone Taylor, Jonathan Davis, Garrett Mitchell, and others of questionable utility. It’s possible he’s mostly on hand to serve as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. Notably, Ruiz has not homered since June 15, though he continues to run with aplomb.

Triston Casas, BOS, (22): Another roster expansion snub, Casas has hit .300/.410/.515 since rejoining Triple-A on July 22. He has 11 doubles, a triple, and five home runs over the same span. While he appears to be both big league ready and an obvious upgrade over the Red Sox current mix of first basemen, the Red Sox appear to be undecided about how to handle Casas. They could be jockeying for the extra season of club control, or they might merely be delaying a decision.

Reds Select Spencer Steer, Fernando Cruz

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11:15am: The Reds have formally selected the contracts of Steer and right-hander Fernando Cruz, per a team announcement. Mike Moustakas and righty Jeff Hoffman were transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list to open space on the 40-man roster.

Cruz, 32, reaches the big leagues in the culmination of one of the more remarkable baseball journeys in recent memory. Drafted by the Royals as an infielder back in 2007, he toiled through four minor league seasons before beginning to experiment off the mound in 2011 and giving up infield work for good by 2012. Cruz still struggled to advance through the minors, however, and after a one-year stop  in the Cubs organization, was out of affiliated ball entirely by 2016.

From 2016-21, Cruz split his time between the Puerto Rican Winter League, the Mexican League (both winter and regular season) and the independent Canadian-American Association, where he worked as a starter and closer alike for the New Jersey Jackals. The Reds signed him this past winter on the heels of his latest indie ball campaign, and he’s broken out with 56 innings of 2.89 ERA ball in Triple-A, where he’s punched out 29.3% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate.

Whether Cruz is truly a long-term piece for the Reds can be debated, but it’s hard not to be happy for a 32-year-old rookie who was out of affiliated ball for six seasons. A call to the Majors must have seemed like a pipe dream not long ago for Cruz, but that MLB debut could come any day now.

8:27am: The Reds are promoting top infield prospect Spencer Steer to the Majors, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. He’ll join the big league team today as part of September roster expansion and should get regular opportunities down the stretch.

Steer, 24, came to the Reds alongside left-hander Steven Hajjar and infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the deadline trade that sent right-hander Tyler Mahle to Minnesota. He recently moved into the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 prospect rankings, checking in at No. 98 on this month’s update.

A third-round pick by Minnesota back in 2019, Steer was the headliner in that Mahle trade, due in no small part to the numbers he posted between Double-A (.307/.385/.591, 144 wRC+) and Triple-A (.242/.345/.485, 117 wRC+) during his time with the Twins. Steer has continued at a strong pace with Cincinnati’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville, hitting at a .297/.375/.467 pace. Between the two organizations, he’s combined for 23 home runs, 30 doubles, a pair of triples and four steals (in seven tries). He’s walked at a 10.4% clip and punched out in 18.1% of his trips to the plate this season.

The Reds have played Steer at all four infield positions, plus one game in right field, but he’s spent the vast majority of his time at second base and third base — both this season and in his professional career. With 2021 National League Rookie of the Year Jonathan India entrenched at second base, Steer seems likely ticketed for the hot corner, at least in the long term. For the short term, however, the Reds could potentially continue to bounce him around the diamond while getting a look at his bat against big league pitching. With Joey Votto out for the season and Mike Moustakas back on the injured list (and clearly not factoring into the team’s long-term plans), Steer should have plenty opportunities for at-bats alongside India and shortstop Jose Barrero, giving Reds fans a potential glimpse of the future infield.

Steer displayed an ability to make consistent contact this year, has steadily improved his power output since being drafted, and is a solid defender at multiple positions. Steer sits outside the top-100 rankings at FanGraphs and MLB.com but ranks ninth and seventh in the Reds’ system on those respective rankings. Scouting reports on him generally agree that he lacks a true plus tool but also lacks any glaring flaws; his blend of defensive versatility, solid bat-to-ball skills, improved power and an at-least average arm give him the potential to be a regular in the Cincinnati infield for years to come.

Depending on how much playing time Steer receives down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll exhaust his rookie status over the next five weeks. He’d need more than 130 at-bats to do so, but regardless, he won’t receive a full year of service in 2022 and won’t put himself on a path to Super Two trajectory, based on this September promotion. If he remains rookie-eligible heading into 2023, the Reds would retain the ability to receive compensatory draft picks based on potential Rookie of the Year voting in 2023.

Reds Trade Tyler Mahle To Twins

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The Twins have nabbed their second notable arm of the day, acquiring right-hander Tyler Mahle in a trade with the Reds, the teams announced. Cincinnati is receiving infield prospects Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand as well as left-handed pitching prospect Steven Hajjar in the deal. Minnesota has had interest in Mahle dating back to the offseason, when they also picked up another Reds starter, Sonny Gray, in a swap that sent 2021 first-rounder Chase Petty to the Reds.

Tyler Mahle

Minnesota has been focused on upgrading its pitching staff, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Having already landed Orioles closer Jorge Lopez in a trade with Baltimore earlier this morning, it seems their focus has shifted to Mahle, who’d reunite with Gray and give the Twins a starter they can control for the remainder of the current season and for the 2023 campaign.

Mahle, 28 next month, has shaken off a terrible start to the 2022 season and pitched quite well over the past two months. He had a brief stint on the injured list due to a shoulder strain in mid-July, but Mahle only missed minimal time and has made a pair of effective starts since returning. Dating back to May 29, he’s pitched to a 2.83 ERA with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 57 1/3 innings.

Since a breakout during the 2020 season, Mahle has pitched to a 3.93 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 332 big league innings. He’s averaged 94 mph with his heater along the way and leaned heavily on a splitter and slider that have both graded out as above-average pitches at times — more recently favoring the splitter (particularly as a means of neutralizing lefties).

Beyond Mahle’s solid ERA, it’s easy to be intrigued by how he might fare when finally escaping the homer-happy confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s worked to an ugly 4.83 ERA and yielded an average of 1.69 home runs per nine innings over the past three seasons while pitching at home but boasts an outstanding 2.93 ERA and just a 0.52 HR/9 mark on the road. He also has above-average spin on his heater and rates in the 76th percentile or better, per Statcast, in each of the following metrics: expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA.

Mahle will give the Twins some desperately needed help in the rotation, which started the season on a surprisingly strong note but has floundered of late. Opening Day rotation members Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack are both on the injured list — Paddack lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery — and 2020 Cy Young runner-up Kenta Maeda is recovering from his own TJ procedure, performed late last season.

The Twins have leaned heavily on Mahle’s former Reds rotationmate Gray, rookie Joe Ryan and veterans Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy so far in 2022. Gray and Ryan have both been strong — a disastrous five-homer start for Ryan in his last appearance notwithstanding — and Bundy has been serviceable, if unspectacular, outside a pair of catastrophic starts of his own at the end of April and in early May. Archer has been limited to four or five outings per start throughout the season and begun to wilt in recent weeks, however, and the Twins’ overall rotation mix simply underwhelmed in July. Twins starters yielded an awful 6.49 ERA in July — third-worst among all big league teams.

Mahle is earning $5.2MM this season, making him plenty affordable even when factoring in his final arbitration raise for next season (or, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests, in a potential long-term extension). Even absent an extension, he can be penciled into the 2023 staff alongside Gray, Ryan and (health-permitting) Maeda. That’s a much more solid foundation than the team carried into the current season.

Unlike this morning’s acquisition of Lopez, the Twins paid fairly extensively from the top end of their system to get this deal done. Steer, the Twins’ third-round pick in 2019, recently moved into the back end of Baseball America’s midseason top-100 rankings on the heels of a big first half.

Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, Steer has turned in a combined .269/.361/.528 batting line with 20 home runs, 23 doubles, three triples, a 17% strikeout rate and a strong 10.8% walk rate. He’s split his time between second base, third base and shortstop this season, spending the bulk of his time at the hot corner (although Baseball America cites second as his best position). Given his breakout showing this year, it’s not unreasonable to think Steer could be an option for the Reds within the next year.

The 22-year-old Encarnacion-Strand, meanwhile was Minnesota’s fourth-round selection just last year. As with Steer, he’d having a huge season in the minors, logging a combined .302/.374/.612 batting line with 25 home runs, 25 doubles and four triples between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. Strikeouts have been more of an issue for Encarnacion-Strand than for Steer, as he’s fanned in about a quarter of his place appearances this season against a solid 8.7% walk rate. BA ranked him 14th in the Twins’ system, touting his plus-plus raw power but noting that he’s at best a fringey defender at third base and may need to move across the diamond.

Hajjar, 21, was the Twins’ second-round pick in last year’s draft and has had an impressive first full pro season this year. Minnesota has been limiting his workload, evidenced by 45 1/3 innings across a combined 13 starts, but the results have been strong. The former Michigan standout has logged a 3.18 ERA with a gaudy 39.2% strikeout rate so far, although his 14% walk rate is something he’ll obviously need to hone is he’s to ever realize his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.

Hajjar can reach the mid-to-upper 90s with his heater, which he complements with a slider and changeup. Notably, Hajjar did spend more than a month on the shelf due to a shoulder strain, and his results since returning have been diminished. Still, he’s a clearly talented arm whom the Reds can add to the middle tier of a farm system they’re rapidly restocking.

With this trade, the Twins have now moved on from four of their top five picks in the 2021 draft since trading for Gray just prior to the season. That’ll take a toll on the system, which has also been harmed by a series of injuries to last year’s wave of top prospects (e.g. Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic). That said, it’s also a testament to the strength of last year’s class. And, with the Twins receiving strong production from some recent graduates of the farm — including the aforementioned Ryan leverage reliever Jhoan Duran and slugging corner infielder Jose Miranda, among others — there’ll be a bit less pressure to tap into the upper levels of their system in the immediate future.

Time will tell whether the Twins have another move up their sleeve. They could certainly use another reliever and/or another starter, to say nothing of a backup catcher or an outfielder — all rumored to be on Minnesota’s wishlist. There’s about two hours left for them to find a way to pull together another deal (or deals). The Reds, meanwhile, will surely have other players on the move as general manager Nick Krall and his staff continue to restock the farm and simultaneously slash payroll.

C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic first reported (via Twitter) that the Twins and Reds were in “serious” talks regarding Mahle. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman tweeted that a deal was in place. Ted Schwerzler of TwinsDaily was first with the return (Twitter link).

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

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