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Tommy Pham

Mets Interested In Tommy Pham

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The Mets’ search for a right-handed hitting outfielder continues. They were connected earlier this week to Andrew McCutchen, though he agreed to terms with the Pirates earlier today. The Mets have also had reported interest in Adam Duvall and Trey Mancini, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Tommy Pham is another name they are now considering.

Pham, 35, was drafted by the Cardinals in 2006 but didn’t truly breakout as a major leaguer until over a decade later. In 2017, when Pham was 29, he hit 23 home runs and stole 25 bases. He also drew walks at a healthy 13.4% clip, leading to an overall batting line of .306/.411/.520. That production was 49% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and Pham was worth 6.3 wins above replacement that year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Pham would continue putting up really good numbers for a few more years with the Cardinals and Rays, but there’s been dip over the past few seasons. He was with the Padres for 2020 and 2021 but hit just .226/.335/.370 over those seasons for a wRC+ of 98, indicating he was 2% below league average. He reached free agency and signed with the Reds for 2022, later going to the Red Sox in a deadline deal. He finished the year with a combined batting line of .236/.312/.374 between the two clubs, good enough for a wRC+ of 89. His walk rate, which was in the 13% range for much of his prime, slipped to 9%. Most fans probably remember his fantasy football-related slap of Joc Pederson more than anything Pham did in a game last year.

Despite those recent struggles, there could be a case for Pham to carve out a part-time role on a strong Mets’ roster. The regular outfield is already set, with Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha and Starling Marte in the three full-time jobs. The left-handed swinging Daniel Vogelbach seems to be lined up to get the bulk of the time at designated hitter, with the right-handed Darin Ruf on hand to potentially serve as a fourth outfielder and spell Vogelbach against lefties. However, Ruf hit just .152/.216/.197 after coming over to the Mets in a trade with the Giants last year, and the club probably wants to find another option that gives them some more confidence.

Pham has hit lefties better in his career, producing a 132 wRC+ against them but a 110 against righties. That still carried into 2022, as he limped to an 81 wRC+ against righties but produced a 115 figure versus southpaws. Though he’s no longer a threat to steal 25 bases, he did swipe eight last year. Statcast also thinks the tools are still in there, with Pham ranking in the 93rd percentile in terms of exit velocity, 86th in maximum exit velocity, 89th in hard hit rate, 74th in arm strength and 66th in sprint speed.

It seems as though the Mets are focused on adding a right-handed hitting outfielder as their next move, having been connected to McCutchen, Duvall, Mancini and Pham in recent days. The free agent market also features Brian Anderson as well as switch-hitters Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar.

Red Sox To Decline Tommy Pham’s 2023 Mutual Option

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The Red Sox won’t be exercising their end of Tommy Pham’s $12MM mutual option for 2023, Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports.  Pham gets a $1.5MM buyout on the option, and becomes a free agent.

It was a tough season for Pham, who may have received more attention for a fantasy football-related altercation with Joc Pederson than for anything he did on the field in 2022.  Pham hit .236/.312/.374 over 622 combined plate appearances with the Reds and Red Sox, with Pham coming to Boston at the trade deadline.  The acquisition seemed a little unusual given that the Sox were on the outskirts of the playoff race and had already dealt away Christian Vazquez in a seeming “seller” move, yet the Red Sox were hopeful that Pham and Eric Hosmer (picked up in another deal from the Padres) could help spark a late-season run.

Unfortunately, as Boston as well as in Cincinnati, Pham couldn’t translate his 89th percentile hard-hit ball rate into consistent production.  Pham didn’t help his cause with a 26.8% strikeout rate (his highest since the 2016 season) that included a lot of extra pitches chased outside the strike zone without any success.  His nine percent walk rate was still above the league average, yet well below the 90th-percentile average that Pham previously posted during his career.

Vision problems may have contributed to this down season, as Pham has been dealing with keratoconus (a cornea-thinning eye issue) for several years, but he told McWilliams that he believes he now has the problem corrected.  This is hardly the first or most serious health problem Pham has had to overcome, as he was the victim of a stabbing incident in October 2020.

Pham expressed an interest in returning to Boston, which may yet be a possibility given the uncertainty in the outfield picture.  Enrique Hernandez and Alex Verdugo look like the only regulars in place, and even Verdugo might not be a safe bet given some recent trade speculation.  It remains to be seen if the Red Sox might look to bolster the outfield with a star-level everyday regular, or if they could perhaps add a complementary or part-time veteran to allow for mixing and matching at-bats for Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder.  In general, the Sox could just be looking for more power in the outfield, which might not bode well for Pham given his modest slugging percentages in the last three seasons.

AL East Notes: Hosmer, Pham, Castro, Peralta, Espinal

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Eric Hosmer will be activated from the injured list tomorrow, according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Hosmer has been out since late August with lower back inflammation.

It’s been a curious season for Hosmer. Dogged by trade rumors for years, the first baseman was initially reported to be part of the deadline blockbuster between the Padres and the Nationals where San Diego acquired Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Hosmer refused to waive his no-trade rights, however, and so the Padres pivoted, sending Luke Voit to Washington as part of the Soto package and instead moving Hosmer, Corey Rosier, and Max Ferguson to Boston in exchange for Jay Groome.

Hosmer played just 12 games for the Red Sox before heading to the injured list. In those games, he slashed a meager .225/.311/.300, though his season line of .267/.333/.381 is good for a 104 wRC+, his best mark in a full season since his 2017 walk year with the Royals. Though Hosmer’s contract, which will pay him $13 million a year for the 2023-2025 seasons, has an opt-out after this season, it’s extremely unlikely to be exercised. As such, Hosmer is expected to compete with Bobby Dalbec and top prospect Triston Casas for playing time at first base going forward, though with J.D. Martinez slated to hit free agency after this season, it’s possible Hosmer could see some time at DH as well.

Additional notes from around the AL East…

  • Red Sox outfielder Tommy Pham’s mutual option for the 2023, previously reported as $6 million, is a $12 million option, per MassLive’s Christopher Smith. Like any mutual option, it remains exceedingly unlikely to be exercised. The Red Sox acquired Pham from the Reds at the trade deadline earlier this season in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. It’s been a disappointing season at the plate for Pham, as he’s slashed just .241/.316/.381 in 611 plate appearances between Cincinnati and Boston.
  • The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner reports that Yankees reliever Miguel Castro is expected to be activated from the injured list tomorrow. The right-hander has posted a 4.00 ERA with a 3.75 FIP in 27 innings this season. Castro has been out with a right shoulder strain since July. As he’s coming off the 60-day injured list, a 40-man roster spot will be necessary to activate Castro. That spot could come from Matt Carpenter, who was transferred to the 60-day IL himself earlier today. Additionally, Kirschner relays that lefty Wandy Peralta will not pitch again during the regular season this year, instead heading to Somerset to prepare for the postseason while the Yankees travel to Texas for their final regular season series against the Rangers. Peralta was placed on the 15-day injured list in September with left thoracic spine tightness.
  • Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports that Blue Jays infielder Santiago Espinal will take live batting practice on Tuesday, and could be activated from the injured list shortly thereafter as Toronto gears up for the postseason. Espinal has slashed .267/.322/.370 in 491 plate appearances this season, but was placed on the injured list with a left oblique strain in September. While Espinal is expected to be ready for the postseason, how much playing time he’ll have available to him is an open question. Espinal has primarily played second base this season, but fellow second basemen Whit Merrifield has posted an .865 OPS since the start of September. That being said, both players have the positional versatility to share a lineup if interim manager John Schneider so desires.

Reds Acquire Nick Northcut From Red Sox

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The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired minor league infielder Nick Northcut from the Red Sox as the player to be named later in the deadline trade that sent Tommy Pham to Boston. Northcut hasn’t been on a Major League roster or injured list this season, so he’s eligible to be traded now even with the deadline having passed. That allows the Reds to get a late look at him in their system, rather than waiting until the offseason.

[Related: How to Acquire Players After the Trade Deadline]

It’s a homecoming for Northcut, a Cincinnati-area native and graduate of William Mason High School — which sits just 25 miles from Great American Ball Park. The 23-year-old Northcut was selected by Boston in the 11th round of the 2018 draft. However, he was considered a top-100 talent in that year’s draft and only lasted as long as he did because he was considered a tough sign who was likely to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt. Boston swayed him with a $565K bonus — roughly in line with late-third-round money. (Pick No. 99 that year, the 25th in the third round, carried a $564K slot value.)

The right-handed-hitting Northcut has appeared at the infield corners almost exclusively in his career, though he did log six innings at shortstop earlier this season (likely in something of emergency fashion). That’s been his lone appearance at any position other than either third base, where he has 1580 professional innings under his belt, or first base, where he’s played 605 frames.

Northcut has shown plenty of pop in the minors this season, swatting 30 home runs and 18 doubles in 428 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A. However, he’s also whiffed in 35% of his trips to the plate and turned in a combined .219/.276/.491 batting line. Northcut’s power is evident, but he’s drawn walks at only a 5.8% clip so far in 2022, which hasn’t been enough to offset the pronounced swing-and-miss in his game.

The struggles to make contact have increased in recent years and prompted Northcut to fall out of the top tiers of the Red Sox’ system; Northcut ranked 19th among Sox farmhands at Baseball America and 23rd at FanGraphs back in 2019 but has fallen off the radar on most prominent assessments of their system. He’ll add a project to Reds’ system, but one with local roots and power that draft-time scouting reports graded as high as 70 on the 20-80 scale.

The Pham swap has worked out reasonably well for the Red Sox, who’ve seen the veteran corner outfielder post a .262/.321/.416 batting line with five homers in 162 plate appearances to this point. That’s about six percent better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but taking a broader look at the team’s deadline maneuverings as a whole, things simply haven’t panned out. Boston traded away catcher Christian Vazquez and veteran reliever Jake Diekman while bringing in Pham and Eric Hosmer and holding onto its most appealing trade candidates (e.g. Nathan Eovaldi). The Sox were 52-52 when the deadline hit but have played at just a 17-21 pace since that time, falling to 10.5 games out of the American League Wild Card chase.

Red Sox Notes: Deadline, Murphy, Payroll, Hosmer, Dalbec

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As chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom had suggested in the days leading up to the August 2 trade deadline, the Red Sox resisted strict categorization as a “buyer” or “seller.” Boston dealt #1 catcher Christian Vázquez to the Astros, flipped reliever Jake Diekman to the White Sox for Vázquez’s replacement Reese McGuire, and acquired Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. While Boston reportedly listened to offers on J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill, that group of rentals remained. So did stars Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, neither of whom was apparently ever really available.

The unconventional approach was a response to the Sox’s status just outside the AL Wild Card picture. They sat two games back at the time of the deadline but had gone just 8-19 in July, leading to some calls for more dramatic action in either direction — either tearing the slumping roster down or more aggressively addressing its flaws. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the team’s more fluid approach to the deadline has confused various members of the organization, both uniformed personnel like players and coaches as well as some front office staffers.

Speaking with Speier, Bloom acknowledged the team’s atypical tack but expressed his belief the franchise wasn’t in position to act in a more specific direction. “I understand why people could look at what we did and scratch their heads. To us, it was pretty clear and pretty simple that the position we were in demanded a unique response.”

Speier sheds some light on some of the Sox’s pre-deadline discussions that didn’t ultimately come to fruition. He reports the club expressed some amount of interest in controllable A’s catcher Sean Murphy while also juggling potential shorter-term upgrades. According to Speier, the Red Sox contemplated a run at impending free agent relievers, but the club ultimately didn’t add to a bullpen that currently ranks 26th in the majors in ERA (4.42). At the same time, Boston apparently wasn’t motivated to shed the salaries of players like Martinez and Eovaldi to dip below the $230MM base luxury tax threshold. With the deadline passed, the Sox now look almost certain to pay the tax in 2022. The actual fee will be fairly small — likely just a couple million dollars — but it’ll set the Sox up to pay escalating penalties if they exceed the threshold again in 2023.

Not forcing midseason payroll cuts to a roster a year removed from an appearance in the ALCS is certainly understandable, but one could argue the Red Sox should’ve more aggressively added in that case. Pham and Hosmer do address the team’s biggest weak points on the position player side — right field and first base, respectively — but neither veteran is having a great season. One week certainly isn’t enough on which to base firm conclusions, but a 2-4 stretch since the deadline has dropped Boston five games back in the Wild Card race and only increased the difficulty of a late-season playoff push.

The deadline shuffle did cut into the playing time of a pair of regulars who haven’t performed as expected. Boston released Jackie Bradley Jr. last week, ending his second stint in the organization after a .210/.257/.321 showing through 290 plate appearances. Bobby Dalbec remains on the active roster, but he no longer seems to be Boston’s primary first baseman. Hosmer and Dalbec have platooned since the former was acquired, and the left-handed hitting Hosmer will be in line for the bulk of the playing time in that arrangement.

Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe writes that Dalbec will begin working at second base in an effort to expand his defensive flexibility. The 6’4″, 227 pound infielder has never started a professional game at second base. Aside from a few mop-up innings in the middle infield, he’s played the corners exclusively. Dalbec conceded he has atypical size for a middle infielder but expressed confidence in his ability to handle the keystone adequately.

The 27-year-old also voiced a desire for regular playing time. “The more I play, the better I’ll do. It’s always been like that. I’m used to being an everyday player. It’s hard to have success when you get at-bats here and there,” Dalbec told Abraham. “I’m not the player I will be. This is all part of the learning process. In terms of the organization, I don’t know how they view me. I just want to help the team win. Honestly that’s all that matters. I don’t see myself as a platoon player, but right now that’s what I am.“

Dalbec hit 25 home runs last season but struck out at an alarming 34.4% clip. The Red Sox nevertheless turned to him as the primary first baseman for much of the year, but he’s stumbled to a .205/.280/.369 line across 300 trips to the dish. Dalbec has made some modest improvements to his strikeout and walk numbers, but his contact quality and batted ball results have plummeted. After connecting on 51 extra-base hits in 133 games last season, he’s tallied 20 across 97 contests in 2022.

Both Hosmer and Dalbec could eventually lose playing time to top prospect Triston Casas, who returned from an injured list stint in Triple-A late last month. Recently named the #30 prospect in the game by Baseball America, the power-hitting Casas owns a solid .246/.350/.455 showing through 223 plate appearances with the Sox’s top affiliate in Worcester. The 22-year-old doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the season, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he gets his first MLB look late this year if he continues hitting well with the WooSox.

Red Sox Acquire Tommy Pham

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The Red Sox and Reds have announced a deal that will send outfielder Tommy Pham to Boston. Cincinnati will receive a player to be named later or cash considerations in return.

It’s a bit of a surprising move for a Boston team that just agreed to deal away its primary catcher, Christian Vázquez, to the Astros. Yet Red Sox president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has maintained they’re not approaching the deadline with a strict “buyer’s” or “seller’s” mentality. Rather, Boston has taken a flexible approach that has seen them ship out Vázquez and listen to offers on designated hitter J.D. Martinez while bringing in players like Pham and backstop Reese McGuire. The Sox enter play Monday 3 1/2 games out in the American League Wild Card race, leaving them to navigate a difficult position for the stretch run.

Boston is trying to thread a needle of gaining some long-term talent while not completely punting on the 2022 campaign, and it stands to reason further moves are on the horizon. In Pham, they add a right-handed bat to a corner outfield mix that has been very disappointing. Left fielder Alex Verdugo has underwhelmed to the tune of a .269/.308/.376 showing with just six homers in 402 plate appearances. The club’s right fielders — primarily Jackie Bradley Jr. — are hitting .199/.262/.316.

Pham, who signed a one-year deal with the Reds in Spring Training, has been a bit more productive than Boston’s incumbent corner outfielders. The 34-year-old owns a .238/.320/.374 line with 11 homers in 387 trips to the plate. His 10.9% walk rate, while a career low, is still a bit better than league average. He consistently makes a fair amount of hard contact, although his power output hasn’t aligned with his above-average exit velocities. That’s largely because Pham hits plenty of ground-balls, but he should nevertheless represent an offensive improvement over the Sox’s internal options.

With Cincinnati, Pham played exclusively left field or designated hitter. He figures to see the bulk of his playing time in Fenway in left, with Verdugo presumably kicking to right field and curtailing Bradley’s playing time. Bloom was in the Rays front office during Pham’s peak days with Tampa Bay, and he’s clearly hopeful the veteran outfielder can rediscover something resembling that productive form.

Pham is making $6MM this season, with a bit more than $2MM of that left to be paid. There’s no mention of cash considerations, so it seems Cincinnati will save a bit of money for stretch run. The Reds are likely to get a minor prospect for a player who’d been slated to hit the free agent market after this season.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Reds were in agreement on a Pham trade. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com named the Red Sox as one of two finalists for Pham. Jim Bowden of the Athletic first reported the Red Sox were acquiring Pham. C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic reported the Reds were receiving a player to be named later.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers, Padres, Rays Interested In Joey Gallo

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10:57AM: The Rays may not be too deep in the Gallo hunt, as Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News hears that the “Yankees wanted too much back” in return.

7:56AM: Joey Gallo’s time in the Bronx is widely expected to be up by Tuesday’s trade deadline, and the Yankees have been exploring trade possibilities for the struggling outfielder.  The Brewers, Padres, and Rays are among the clubs who have shown interest in the former All-Star, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.

San Diego discussed a Gallo deal during Spring Training, and has been linked to the slugger’s market multiple times in the past, dating back to Gallo’s time with the Rangers.  The Rays and Brewers also had interest in Gallo at last year’s deadline, and seem to be again revisiting a trade 12 months later.

Of course, quite a lot has happened to Gallo’s trade value in the past year, none of it good.  After posting only a .707 OPS in 228 plate appearances as a Yankees in 2021, Gallo’s slump has only deepened this season.  Gallo has hit only .159/.282/.339 with 12 homers over 273 PA, with a wRC+ of 81 (the league average is 100) and strikeout and whiff rates that rank near the bottom of the league.

On the flip side, Gallo is still posting outstanding hard-contact numbers and his 14.7% walk rate is one of the best of any player in baseball.  A .217 BABIP only deepens the frustration, yet Gallo is so rarely making contact in the first place that his scuffles can’t be chalked up to just bad batted-ball luck.  This lack of production in the pinstripes is “something I’m gonna have to really live with for the rest of my life,” Gallo told The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler earlier this week.  “It’s going to be tough.  I didn’t play well, I didn’t live up to expectations.  And that’s a tough pill to swallow.”

The Yankees’ acquisition of Andrew Benintendi has all but confirmed that Gallo will be dealt, though what New York can expect back in return is an open question.  The 28-year-old outfielder is a free agent after the season and is owed roughly $3.4MM for the remainder of the year, making it quite possible that the Yankees will have to eat most or all of that money unless another unwanted contract is swapped in return.  While interested teams surely view Gallo as a change-of-scenery candidate, the Yankees don’t have much leverage in trying to market him as such, since it is so widely known that the club wishes to part ways with the outfielder.

In Tampa Bay’s case, the Yankees are surely wary of the idea of Gallo reviving himself on an AL East rival, and it is fair to wonder if New York would want more in order to move Gallo within the division.  The Rays may have the more glaring need for outfield help given that Manuel Margot, Harold Ramirez, and Kevin Kiermaier are all injured, with Kiermaier being out for the season in the wake of hip surgery.

However, the Rays already made a left-handed hitting outfield upgrade yesterday, landing David Peralta in a trade with the Diamondbacks.  It is possible this move could take the Rays out of the Gallo market, though the club is still looking for more outfield depth, as Nightengale also reports that Tampa is interested in former Ray and current Red Tommy Pham.

Christian Yelich, Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Renfroe, and Tyrone Taylor have comprised Milwaukee’s outfield mix for much of the season, with McCutchen also getting the majority of DH time.  Yelich is the only left-handed bat of the quartet, and Gallo could become a platoon partner with Taylor in center field.  2019 was the only season Gallo played a sizeable amount of center field, but he acquitted himself quite well defensively up the middle, even if right field is his ideal position — Gallo has won the last two American League right field Gold Gloves.

Tommy Pham Suspended For Three Games Over Altercation With Joc Pederson

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Reds outfielder Tommy Pham told reporters (including The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith) that he has been issued a three-game suspension for an altercation with the Giants’ Joc Pederson prior to last night’s game.  The suspension began with last night’s contest, so Pham will miss the entirety of the Reds’ series with San Francisco.  The league has officially announced the suspension, adding that Pham has also been issued a fine.

The incident took place during Friday’s batting practice, with Pederson telling reporters (including John Shea of The San Francisco Chronicle) that Pham approached Pederson in the outfield and eventually slapped him across the face during the confrontation.  Adding to the bizarre nature of the situation, Pederson said Pham was upset over a past dispute in a fantasy football league from over a year ago, based on what players were or weren’t allowed to be placed on the injured reserve list as per the fantasy league’s rules.

Pham had a different take, saying that he took issue both with Pederson’s fantasy football actions and also some “disrespectful” comments Pederson allegedly made about the Padres, Pham’s former team.

“I didn’t like that, and I didn’t like the sketchy shit going on in the fantasy league.  We’ve got too much money on the line, and I look at it like there’s a code,” Pham said.

The Reds initially had Pham in their starting lineup on Friday, though while the game was delayed for over two hours due to weather, Pham was scratched from the lineup.  Pham said that during the delay, he was “getting pressured from MLB” as part of the league’s investigation into the incident, and he agreed to a three-game suspension for the duration of the series with the Giants.

Reds Sign Tommy Pham

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TODAY: The Reds have officially announced Pham’s signing.  Tejay Antone (who underwent Tommy John surgery in August) was placed on the 60-day injured list to create roster room.

March 24: Pham is guaranteed $7.5MM on the deal, coming in the form of a $6MM salary and a $1.5MM buyout on next year’s mutual option, Nightengale further reports.

March 23: The Reds are in agreement with outfielder Tommy Pham on a one-year deal, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The deal, which contains a mutual option for 2023, is pending a physical. Financial terms have not been disclosed. Pham is a client of Vayner Sports.

Pham was one of the game’s more underrated players early in his career with the Cardinals and Rays. Between 2017-19, the right-handed hitter posted a .284/.381/.475 line while averaging nearly 22 home runs and stolen bases apiece per season. Pham routinely posted high-end exit velocities and walk rates while making a decent amount of contact. A high ground-ball tendency kept him from emerging as an elite power threat, but he was a well-rounded and highly productive offensive player.

Over the 2019-20 offseason, Tampa Bay traded Pham and Jake Cronenworth to the Padres in a deal that sent Hunter Renfroe and Xavier Edwards back to the Rays. While Pham was the headliner of the swap from the Friars’ perspective, Cronenworth proved to be the more valuable pickup. Pham struggled to a .211/.312/.312 mark during the shortened 2020 season, the only below-average offensive showing of his career. Last year’s .229/.340/.383 slash was a tick above average, by measure of wRC+, but it still came up well shy of his early-career numbers.

Pham, who didn’t emerge as a regular until his age-29 campaign, turned 34 earlier this month. It’s certainly possible his recent downturn is attributable to aging, but it’s worth noting he dealt with a few health issues in San Diego that probably also had a deleterious effect on his performance. Pham missed a month in 2020 after fracturing the hamate bone in his right hand, an injury that could certainly have sapped some of his power. Last offseason, he was the victim of a life-threatening stabbing attack that required 200 stitches to close a wound in his back.

Remarkably, Pham returned by Opening Day and didn’t spend any time on the injured list. Yet he was open about how the incident affected his offseason routine, and it’s possible he was never fully healthy in 2021. Pham actually performed much better in the first half of the year than he did in the second — he didn’t merely start slowly while recovering from the stabbing  — but it’d be understandable if he weren’t up to the physical grind of a 162-game season coming off the prior winter’s tribulations.

Pham’s dip in results has been attributable to what has happened on balls in play. Last season’s 13.9% walk rate remained excellent, while his 22.8% strikeout percentage is right in line with his career marks. Pham still made plenty of authoritative contact. His 47.6% hard contact rate and 94.9 MPH average exit velocity on balls hit in the air were both definitively better than average. The results didn’t align with those batted ball numbers, though, as Pham saw a career-low 13.5% of his fly balls clear the fences.

San Diego’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark didn’t seem to do the veteran outfielder any favors. Pham’s .412 weighted on-base average on fly balls was far outstripped by his .562 “expected” weighted on-base on those batted balls, per Statcast. A few more of those flies should clear the fences at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, perhaps enabling Pham to post numbers closer to his career norms.

That makes him a sensible buy-low target, although the signing comes in the broader context of a strange offseason for the Reds. Much of the winter was focused on the club’s cost-cutting efforts. They parted ways with Wade Miley, Tucker Barnhart, Sonny Gray and Jesse Winker and seemingly made no effort to retain free agent Nick Castellanos. Those all thinned out a roster that was marginally above-average (83-79 with a +26 run differential) last season.

That’ll make it difficult to make a serious run at contention in 2022, but Cincinnati has made a few short-term moves in recent days. They acquired Mike Minor from the Royals and signed each of Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and Hunter Strickland, building out the margins of the roster. Pham may be the most impactful of those moves, but competing this year while slashing costs still looks to be a difficult needle for general manager Nick Krall and his staff to thread.

Pham figures to replace Winker as the primary left fielder. Jake Fraley, whom the Reds acquired from the Mariners in the Winker/Eugenio Suárez trade, is better suited for left but could see some action in center field. Tyler Naquin will probably move from center to right after rating poorly defensively, leaving Fraley, Nick Senzel and Shogo Akiyama as the options in center. That’s not an ideal group, but there weren’t many capable everyday center fielders available in free agency or trade this offseason. Pham isn’t a perfect positional fit, but installing his bat into the lineup should help an offense that lost two of last season’s top three hitters.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tommy Pham Open To Playing First Base

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Tommy Pham is one of the many free agents still without a contract for 2022, and the lockout has only added to the uncertainty facing Pham’s market following a pair of underwhelming seasons with the Padres.  However, Pham is looking to increase his positional value, with The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writing that the veteran outfielder is “open to playing first base if needed.”

Specifically, Pham said he would be interested in playing first base in a second stint with the Rays, as Pham played in Tampa during the 2018-19 seasons.  The Rays are known to be looking for a right-handed hitting first base option, and a reunion with Pham would be a creative way of addressing that need.  It stands to reason that if Pham is willing to take on a new position with the Rays, he is also willing to pick up a first base glove with other contenders who might come calling, and perhaps non-contenders as well.

Pham took a frank view of his pending free agency last September, saying that “I didn’t play well enough” in 2021 and that he was “fully prepared to take a one-year deal and reestablish my market.”  Pham was still a slightly above-average hitter in the view of wRC+ (102) and OPS+ (103), as he batted .229/.340/.383 with 15 home runs over 561 plate appearances with San Diego.  That kind of production and playing time is itself an impressive accomplishment considering that Pham was coming off a terrifying stabbing incident in October 2020 that threatened his life.

A case can be made that Pham was pretty unlucky at the plate last year, considering that his .354 xwOBA was significantly higher than his .318 wOBA.  Between that glaring differential and his still solid hard-contact numbers, Pham could well be a bounce-back candidate to watch in 2022.  In fact, he seems exactly like the type of relatively inexpensive veteran the Rays would traditionally target in free agency, as the team would bet that a healthy Pham could match or better the production of a player with a heftier price tag.

Pham played 37 games at shortstop in his very first season of pro ball, way back in 2006 with the Cardinals’ rookie ball affiliate.  Since then, he has exclusively played in the outfield, and mostly in left field since the start of the 2019 season.  Among the publicly available statistics for measuring defense, the Outs Above Average metric has been very down (-17) on Pham’s left field glovework over the last three seasons, while UZR/150 (-1.1) and Defensive Runs Saved (-3.3) are at least passable, if trending downward.

With this in mind, a change in positions might be a logical pivot for a veteran player looking to extend his career.  Pham turns 34 in March, and he’d need a big year at the plate (no matter the position) to line himself up for a nice multi-year contract next winter, if he does indeed opt for just a one-year contract during this trip to the open market.  While health issues have hampered Pham over the last two years, he isn’t far removed from a very strong five-year stretch of hitting .277/.373/.472 over 2110 PA with the Cardinals and Rays from 2015-19.

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