Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham
The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.
Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.
One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.
Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.
Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.
Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.
Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.
“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.
Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.
Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.
NL East Notes: Candelario, Marlins, Pham, Phillies, Dominguez, Hoskins
The Marlins have interest in Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Miami views “Candelario as a perfect fit.” With a cumulative -0.9 bWAR posted by Marlins third basemen this season, no team has received less from the hot corner than the Fish, as Jean Segura‘s resurgence over the last few weeks haven’t been enough to erase his very rough performance over the first three months. Segura could move into a utility role in the event of a Candelario trade, as Luis Arraez is a lineup fixture at second base, Jorge Soler is primarily a DH, and the hot-hitting Garrett Cooper is the primary first baseman.
Candelario is one of the more obvious trade candidates available heading into the deadline, as the Nationals are out of the race and Candelario will be a free agent after the season. After a poor 2022 season with the Tigers, Candelario has bounced back nicely to hit .254/.333/.474 with 15 homers over 390 plate appearances with Washington. He is owed roughly $1.8MM in remaining salary this season, which is a modest sum anyway but shouldn’t be a problem for the Marlins — owner Bruce Sherman has promised financial “resources” for deadline additions. Of course, Sherman’s statement came before Miami suffered through an eight-game losing streak out of the All-Star break, but the Fish got back into the win column with today’s 3-2 win over the Rockies.
More from around the NL East…
- Speaking of possible inter-division trades, Bob Nightengale also writes that the Phillies “would love to land” Mets outfielder Tommy Pham. The Phillies are known to be looking for right-handed hitting, with an outfielder as an ideal fit if Bryce Harper is able to settle in as a first baseman. Pham has an excellent .272/.356/.475 slash line and nine home runs over 250 PA with New York this season, making him an interesting rental target for several teams. The 46-52 Mets appear to be poised to be deadline sellers in some fashion, and pending free agents like Pham are the likeliest players to be moved as the Amazins look to reload for 2024. However, Pham has missed New York’s last few games with a groin injury, though he is expected to be back in action Tuesday.
- Along these same lines, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times figures the Rays will check in on Mets reliever David Robertson. Around $3.6MM remains on the one-year, $10MM free agent deal Robertson signed with New York last winter, and the veteran righty is a known quantity in Tampa after pitching for the Rays in 2021.
- Seranthony Dominguez is set to throw a second rehab outing today, as the Phillies right-hander might be nearing a return from the 15-day injured list. According to Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Dominguez might be activated as early as Monday if he is feeling good after today’s Triple-A game. Dominguez has been sidelined since mid-June due to an oblique strain. Coffey also provided an update on Rhys Hoskins, who will be traveling with the Phils on road trips for the remainder of the season as something of a mental release from the grind of his rehab. Hoskins tore his left ACL during Spring Training and is expected to miss the entire season, but the first baseman is still hoping for a possible return if the Phillies make the playoffs.
Looking Back At A Rare Trade Miss For The Rays
Why do teams even bother trading with the Rays? The club has built a reputation as one that wins every deal it makes, a legend that goes back to at least 2014, based on this classic Tweet. Whenever they swing a deal, there are inevitable comments with observers wondering why other clubs even bother getting involved with Tampa when they’re bound to get fleeced.
It’s understandable why that discourse exists as the Rays have shown a knack to turn unheralded players into stars. Looking at the current roster, we find players like Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, Drew Rasmussen and others who seemed to completely alter their trajectory after moving to Tampa. It’s a testament to the organization that they seem to continually get the best out of their players, whether it’s ones they’ve traded for or those they originally drafted or signed.
It’s also what helps them repeatedly field competitive clubs despite rarely spending money. They’ve made the playoffs in eight of the past 15 seasons, including each of the past four, and seem well on their way to get back there again despite playing in the stacked AL East. In the last 20 years, they’ve only once spent enough to get out of the bottom five, per the figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
That being said, no club is perfect. They are run by human beings just like all the others and they make mistakes. Let’s take a look at a deal from December 2019 that looks like a whiff.
- Padres get outfielder Tommy Pham and infield prospect Jake Cronenworth
- Rays get outfielder Hunter Renfroe, infield prospect Xavier Edwards and a player to be named later, eventually revealed as infield prospect Esteban Quiroz
This deal has the vague feel of a classic Rays trade, as they often take quality players and flip them for others who are almost as good but cheaper and with more control. If they help the new player become just as good or better than the one they gave up, then it works out as a nice bit of business for a low-spending club.
There’s no doubt Pham was better than Renfroe at that time. In the three years leading up to the deal, he had hit 65 home runs and slashed .284/.381/.475 for a wRC+ of 133. Renfroe’s batting line was .231/.291/.486 for a wRC+ of 102. He actually hit significantly more homers than Pham with 85, but his 7.3% walk rate was well below Pham’s 12.5% clip. He also struck out 28.5% of the time compared to Pham’s 21.7% rate. The defensive edge was debatable, as Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average preferred Renfroe while Ultimate Zone Rating gave the nod to Pham, though a lot of Pham’s work came in the more-demanding position of center field. Pham definitely provided more value on the basepaths, including stealing 65 bases to Renfroe’s 10. His 13.1 wins above replacement tally from FanGraphs in those three years was well ahead of Renfroe’s 4.3.
But turning to the financials, Pham had two years of remaining club control and was projected to make $8.6MM in 2020. Renfroe just qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player, meaning he had four years of control remaining and was projected for a $3.4MM salary. If the Rays could somehow coax some better plate discipline out of Renfroe, they could wind up with a fairly similar player for less money and more control.
Pham went on to struggle in 2020 but bounce back with a serviceable 2021 campaign. Renfroe, however, had a dismal season in 2020. He did make some slight improvements at the plate, walking at a 10.1% clip and striking out at a 26.6% rate, but he hit just .156/.252/.393 for a wRC+ of 78. His .141 batting average on balls in play certainly points to a lot of bad luck, and he’s been better since then, but the Rays decided to move on by designating him for assignment at season’s end.
There’s always risk in taking this path, assuming that the lesser player can simply be changed in a way that they replace the better player, but the Rays also had some insurance. They were getting a young prospect on the rise in Edwards. He was just the Padres’ #21 prospect coming into 2019, per Baseball America, but he hit .322/.375/.396 for a 121 wRC+ between Single-A and High-A that year. He only hit one home run, but he struck out at a tiny 9.6% rate and stole 34 bases. After the deal, BA ranked him the #85 prospect in the entire league.
Unfortunately, he never really developed any more power and the speed proved less game-changing as he moved up the minor league ladder. After the minor leagues were canceled in 2020, he went up to Double-A in 2021. He didn’t hit a single home run in 337 plate appearances over 79 games. His .302/.377/.368 batting line was still above average, translating to a wRC+ 113, but it was a bit of a drop from his breakout.
Last year, he got bumped to Triple-A and managed to hit five home runs in 400 trips to the plate, but the rest of the picture wasn’t as pretty. His 18.8% strikeout rate was still a bit below average, but it was much higher than any season before. His .246/.328/.350 line amounted to a wRC+ of 84 and he only stole seven bases in 11 tries over 93 games. This past offseason, with the Rays facing a roster crunch, they dealt Edwards and JT Chargois to the Marlins for prospects Marcus Johnson and Santiago Suarez. Johnson and Suarez were respectively ranked the club’s #25 and #17 prospects by BA coming into this year. Those youngsters mean the Rays could still salvage something from Edwards indirectly, but it’s surely not the outcome they envisioned when they initially brought him aboard. Neither Johnson nor Suarez has reached even High-A yet, so any forthcoming payday will have to wait.
The best saving grace of the deal from Tampa’s perspective right now is that the player to be named later, Quiroz, had a nice season in 2021 and was flipped to the Cubs for Harold Ramírez. This is more the classic Rays trade that we all know, where a somewhat flawed player seems to find their ceiling in Tampa. Ramírez had cracked BA’s top 100 list back in 2016 while with the Pirates, but later bounced around to Toronto, Miami and Cleveland. By the end of 2021, he had received 818 major league plate appearances but had hit .271/.308/.405 for a wRC+ of 91. For a guy with little speed and subpar defense, that wasn’t terribly exciting.
Cleveland designated Ramírez for assignment after 2021 and then flipped him to the Cubs for cash. At the end of March, the Cubs sent him to the Rays for Quiroz, seeming to indicate he wouldn’t make the team out of spring. Since he was out of options, they couldn’t send him down and at least got Quiroz out of it. The Rays would have to keep Ramírez on the active roster as well, though that hasn’t been a problem as he has mashed since the deal. In 139 games as a Ray, he’s hit .308/.353/.442 for a wRC+ of 132. He still doesn’t walk much and his defense is still subpar, but he’s hard to strike out and hits the ball hard. The Rays can control him through 2025.
From the Padres’ point of view, Pham was just okay in his two seasons there but the real coup was getting Cronenworth. A seventh round draft pick, he was never at the top of any prospect lists while in the minors. He was ranked #18 in the Rays’ system by BA in 2018 and then #15 in the Padres’ system in 2020 after the deal. He then cracked the Opening Day roster in the shortened season, striking out in just 15.6% of his plate appearances that year while hitting .285/.354/.477 for a wRC+ of 126. He hasn’t quite maintained that pace but has continued to be above average, with his career batting line now at .254/.336/.433, translating to a 114 wRC+.
He’s also provided tremendous defensive versatility, bouncing around the infield as needed. He’s mostly played second base but has also spent time at third and shortstop. When the Friars signed Xander Bogaerts to take over at short, they seemed to have little hesitation about moving Ha-Seong Kim to second and Cronenworth over to first. His DRS numbers at short are subpar, but he’s considered average or better at the other spots, while UZR and OAA think he’s average or better everywhere. The club is so enamored with him that they signed him to a seven-year, $80MM extension in the offseason.
In the end, the deal wasn’t a total loss for the Rays, since they were able to flip one of the pieces to get a solid player in Ramírez. But it shows that MLB decision makers don’t necessarily need to block phone calls coming from Tampa. You could get someone like Cronenworth or perhaps Nathaniel Lowe or maybe Willy Adames or even Blake Snell or how about José Alvarado or someone like Joe Ryan?
Mets Notes: Senga, DH, McNeil, Extensions
One of the bigger moves of the Mets’ active offseason was the signing of starter Kodai Senga to a five-year, $75MM guarantee. The 30-year-old righty is making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he posted a 2.59 ERA across 11 seasons. Senga was one of the highest-upside hurlers available in free agency, though there’s naturally some amount of performance risk until he translates his production against MLB competition.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Mets also expressed some concern about Senga’s medical evaluations before finalizing the contract in December. Further details aren’t clear, though Heyman notes Mets personnel have expressed confidence in Senga’s health prognosis for the upcoming season. That’s hardly surprising, as whatever concerns the organization had raised didn’t deter them from agreeing to the fourth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher this offseason. That contract also affords Senga an opportunity to opt out and retest the market after the 2025 season, though the Associated Press reports that’s contingent on the righty throwing a combined 400 innings over the next three years.
In other news out of Queens:
- The Mets never pursued a full-time designated hitter upgrade this offseason partially out of a desire to preserve a path to at-bats for their younger hitters, writes Andy Martino of SNY. Top prospects Francicso Álvarez and Brett Baty each reached the majors late in the 2022 season. Each is a polished hitter but faces questions about their defense at catcher and third base, respectively. That’s also true of corner infielder Mark Vientos, who’s not quite the same caliber of prospect as Álvarez or Baty but earned an MLB look with a .280/.358/.519 showing at Triple-A Syracuse. Martino suggests the Mets aren’t likely to give them early-season looks at DH in hopes of each continuing to show progress defensively, though there could be a path to bat-only reps later in the year — or for veteran Eduardo Escobar to slide to DH if Baty seized the third base job at some point. Lefty-swinging veteran Daniel Vogelbach earned the larger share of a DH platoon to open the year with an excellent .261/.382/.497 showing against righties anyhow. Offseason signee Tommy Pham or last summer’s deadline pickup Darin Ruf are righty bats who could shoulder the load against southpaws. Ruf’s second-half struggles give Pham the upper hand in that regard, but Martino writes the Mets are at least likely to carry Ruf on the roster into Spring Training.
- New York locked up one of their homegrown stars last Friday, signing Jeff McNeil to a four-year, $50MM extension to potentially buy out a trio of free agent years. General manager Billy Eppler addressed the deal earlier this week, expressing broad openness to negotiations with other important players who are early in their careers (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). First baseman Pete Alonso is the most logical candidate for those kinds of talks as he enters his penultimate season of arbitration control, though neither Eppler nor Alonso’s representatives at Apex Baseball have indicated publicly whether discussions might take place over the coming weeks. Discussions with McNeil, at least, were a long time running before culminating in a deal. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports Eppler and McNeil’s camp at Paragon Sports International first opened extension talks in November 2021, just before the lockout froze communications between teams and 40-man roster players until March.
Mets To Sign Tommy Pham
Jan. 20: Pham has passed his physical, tweets Nightengale. The outfielder will earn a $200K bonus upon reaching 225 plate appearances with the Mets, and he’ll unlock additional $200K bonuses for every 25th plate appearance thereafter, all the way up through 450 plate appearances. With the physical complete, the Mets should announce the deal sooner than later.
Jan. 18, 10:26am: It’s a one-year, $6MM contract for Pham, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the contract contains $2MM of available incentives and is expected to be finalized Thursday.
10:08am: The Mets and Pham have agreed to terms on a contract, Martino tweets. The deal is pending a physical.
9:44am: The Mets have an offer on the table to free-agent outfielder Tommy Pham and is optimistic about completing a deal, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. The Mets also made offers to Andrew McCutchen and Adam Duvall, per the report, but McCutchen preferred to go back to his original team in Pittsburgh while Duvall had the opportunity for more playing time in Boston.
Pham, 35 in March, split the 2022 season between Cincinnati and Boston, batting a combined .236/.312/.374 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases in 622 plate appearances. It was a down season overall, but Pham’s line included a stout .273/.338/.446 batting line against left-handed pitching.
Additionally, Pham’s batted-ball profile also serves as a portent for increased production in the future. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 93rd percentile of all big league hitters, while his 48.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 89th percentile, per Statcast. Even if bat doesn’t bounce all the way back to the levels those numbers suggest, there’s a good chance he can be a useful platoon option. Also, Pham also still drew favorable rankings for his arm strength in the outfield (74th percentile) and average sprint speed (66th percentile). Defensive metrics panned his glovework on the whole (0 DRS, -6 OAA), but the tools are there for him to rebound in that capacity as well.
From 2015-19, Pham was one of the game’s most underrated outfielders, batting a combined .277/.373/.472 (130 wRC+) with a hefty 12.2% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter overall since that time, but given his speed, arm strength and solid production against lefties, he’s a nice bat to have on the bench.
Pham is mostly limited to left field at this point in his career — he has just 91 innings in center field an seven in right field since 2018 — but he’ll give the Mets some outfield insurance while perhaps serving as a right-handed complement to lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach. That’s especially true if the Mets look to move on from Darin Ruf after a disappointing couple months in Queens following last year’s acquisition at the trade deadline.
While Pham himself might not be a backup option to Brandon Nimmo in center field, adding him to the mix provides the Mets with some additional cover in the event of an outfield injury. For instance, both left fielder Mark Canha and (especially) right fielder Starling Marte have experience in center field, so either could shift to center should Nimmo need a day off or a trip to the IL, with Pham then slotting into left field and Marte/Canha covering the other two outfield slots.
The Mets also have 24-year-old Khalil Lee as a lefty-hitting outfielder who can fill in at all three spots, though he has a minor league option remaining. Pham’s addition creates the possibility of sending Lee to Triple-A Syracuse for regular playing time — a luxury the team may not have previously been able to afford. Previously, the Mets’ only outfielders on the 40-man roster all projected to be on the big league roster as well, so the extra depth fills a clear need.
On top of Pham’s $6MM, the Mets owe a 90% luxury tax of $5.4MM, bringing their total tab for the signing to $11.4MM. New York’s projected bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season jumps to a bit more than $356MM, with about $374MM in luxury-tax considerations on the books. That puts them in well into the top luxury bracket and sets the stage for the Mets to be a third-time payor in the 2024 season, which point they’d owe an even steeper 110% tax on every dollar spent above the top line. Owner Steve Cohen has shown little concern with such penalties, however, and Pham’s luxury hit will be a relative drop in the bucket compared to the sum the Mets were planning to pay Carlos Correa before concerns regarding his medicals scuttled the 12-year deal between the two parties.
Mets Interested In Tommy Pham
The Mets’ search for a right-handed hitting outfielder continues. They were connected earlier this week to Andrew McCutchen, though he agreed to terms with the Pirates earlier today. The Mets have also had reported interest in Adam Duvall and Trey Mancini, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Tommy Pham is another name they are now considering.
Pham, 35, was drafted by the Cardinals in 2006 but didn’t truly breakout as a major leaguer until over a decade later. In 2017, when Pham was 29, he hit 23 home runs and stole 25 bases. He also drew walks at a healthy 13.4% clip, leading to an overall batting line of .306/.411/.520. That production was 49% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and Pham was worth 6.3 wins above replacement that year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.
Pham would continue putting up really good numbers for a few more years with the Cardinals and Rays, but there’s been dip over the past few seasons. He was with the Padres for 2020 and 2021 but hit just .226/.335/.370 over those seasons for a wRC+ of 98, indicating he was 2% below league average. He reached free agency and signed with the Reds for 2022, later going to the Red Sox in a deadline deal. He finished the year with a combined batting line of .236/.312/.374 between the two clubs, good enough for a wRC+ of 89. His walk rate, which was in the 13% range for much of his prime, slipped to 9%. Most fans probably remember his fantasy football-related slap of Joc Pederson more than anything Pham did in a game last year.
Despite those recent struggles, there could be a case for Pham to carve out a part-time role on a strong Mets’ roster. The regular outfield is already set, with Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha and Starling Marte in the three full-time jobs. The left-handed swinging Daniel Vogelbach seems to be lined up to get the bulk of the time at designated hitter, with the right-handed Darin Ruf on hand to potentially serve as a fourth outfielder and spell Vogelbach against lefties. However, Ruf hit just .152/.216/.197 after coming over to the Mets in a trade with the Giants last year, and the club probably wants to find another option that gives them some more confidence.
Pham has hit lefties better in his career, producing a 132 wRC+ against them but a 110 against righties. That still carried into 2022, as he limped to an 81 wRC+ against righties but produced a 115 figure versus southpaws. Though he’s no longer a threat to steal 25 bases, he did swipe eight last year. Statcast also thinks the tools are still in there, with Pham ranking in the 93rd percentile in terms of exit velocity, 86th in maximum exit velocity, 89th in hard hit rate, 74th in arm strength and 66th in sprint speed.
It seems as though the Mets are focused on adding a right-handed hitting outfielder as their next move, having been connected to McCutchen, Duvall, Mancini and Pham in recent days. The free agent market also features Brian Anderson as well as switch-hitters Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar.
Red Sox To Decline Tommy Pham’s 2023 Mutual Option
The Red Sox won’t be exercising their end of Tommy Pham‘s $12MM mutual option for 2023, Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports. Pham gets a $1.5MM buyout on the option, and becomes a free agent.
It was a tough season for Pham, who may have received more attention for a fantasy football-related altercation with Joc Pederson than for anything he did on the field in 2022. Pham hit .236/.312/.374 over 622 combined plate appearances with the Reds and Red Sox, with Pham coming to Boston at the trade deadline. The acquisition seemed a little unusual given that the Sox were on the outskirts of the playoff race and had already dealt away Christian Vazquez in a seeming “seller” move, yet the Red Sox were hopeful that Pham and Eric Hosmer (picked up in another deal from the Padres) could help spark a late-season run.
Unfortunately, as Boston as well as in Cincinnati, Pham couldn’t translate his 89th percentile hard-hit ball rate into consistent production. Pham didn’t help his cause with a 26.8% strikeout rate (his highest since the 2016 season) that included a lot of extra pitches chased outside the strike zone without any success. His nine percent walk rate was still above the league average, yet well below the 90th-percentile average that Pham previously posted during his career.
Vision problems may have contributed to this down season, as Pham has been dealing with keratoconus (a cornea-thinning eye issue) for several years, but he told McWilliams that he believes he now has the problem corrected. This is hardly the first or most serious health problem Pham has had to overcome, as he was the victim of a stabbing incident in October 2020.
Pham expressed an interest in returning to Boston, which may yet be a possibility given the uncertainty in the outfield picture. Enrique Hernandez and Alex Verdugo look like the only regulars in place, and even Verdugo might not be a safe bet given some recent trade speculation. It remains to be seen if the Red Sox might look to bolster the outfield with a star-level everyday regular, or if they could perhaps add a complementary or part-time veteran to allow for mixing and matching at-bats for Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder. In general, the Sox could just be looking for more power in the outfield, which might not bode well for Pham given his modest slugging percentages in the last three seasons.
AL East Notes: Hosmer, Pham, Castro, Peralta, Espinal
Eric Hosmer will be activated from the injured list tomorrow, according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Hosmer has been out since late August with lower back inflammation.
It’s been a curious season for Hosmer. Dogged by trade rumors for years, the first baseman was initially reported to be part of the deadline blockbuster between the Padres and the Nationals where San Diego acquired Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Hosmer refused to waive his no-trade rights, however, and so the Padres pivoted, sending Luke Voit to Washington as part of the Soto package and instead moving Hosmer, Corey Rosier, and Max Ferguson to Boston in exchange for Jay Groome.
Hosmer played just 12 games for the Red Sox before heading to the injured list. In those games, he slashed a meager .225/.311/.300, though his season line of .267/.333/.381 is good for a 104 wRC+, his best mark in a full season since his 2017 walk year with the Royals. Though Hosmer’s contract, which will pay him $13 million a year for the 2023-2025 seasons, has an opt-out after this season, it’s extremely unlikely to be exercised. As such, Hosmer is expected to compete with Bobby Dalbec and top prospect Triston Casas for playing time at first base going forward, though with J.D. Martinez slated to hit free agency after this season, it’s possible Hosmer could see some time at DH as well.
Additional notes from around the AL East…
- Red Sox outfielder Tommy Pham‘s mutual option for the 2023, previously reported as $6 million, is a $12 million option, per MassLive’s Christopher Smith. Like any mutual option, it remains exceedingly unlikely to be exercised. The Red Sox acquired Pham from the Reds at the trade deadline earlier this season in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. It’s been a disappointing season at the plate for Pham, as he’s slashed just .241/.316/.381 in 611 plate appearances between Cincinnati and Boston.
- The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner reports that Yankees reliever Miguel Castro is expected to be activated from the injured list tomorrow. The right-hander has posted a 4.00 ERA with a 3.75 FIP in 27 innings this season. Castro has been out with a right shoulder strain since July. As he’s coming off the 60-day injured list, a 40-man roster spot will be necessary to activate Castro. That spot could come from Matt Carpenter, who was transferred to the 60-day IL himself earlier today. Additionally, Kirschner relays that lefty Wandy Peralta will not pitch again during the regular season this year, instead heading to Somerset to prepare for the postseason while the Yankees travel to Texas for their final regular season series against the Rangers. Peralta was placed on the 15-day injured list in September with left thoracic spine tightness.
- Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports that Blue Jays infielder Santiago Espinal will take live batting practice on Tuesday, and could be activated from the injured list shortly thereafter as Toronto gears up for the postseason. Espinal has slashed .267/.322/.370 in 491 plate appearances this season, but was placed on the injured list with a left oblique strain in September. While Espinal is expected to be ready for the postseason, how much playing time he’ll have available to him is an open question. Espinal has primarily played second base this season, but fellow second basemen Whit Merrifield has posted an .865 OPS since the start of September. That being said, both players have the positional versatility to share a lineup if interim manager John Schneider so desires.
Reds Acquire Nick Northcut From Red Sox
The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired minor league infielder Nick Northcut from the Red Sox as the player to be named later in the deadline trade that sent Tommy Pham to Boston. Northcut hasn’t been on a Major League roster or injured list this season, so he’s eligible to be traded now even with the deadline having passed. That allows the Reds to get a late look at him in their system, rather than waiting until the offseason.
[Related: How to Acquire Players After the Trade Deadline]
It’s a homecoming for Northcut, a Cincinnati-area native and graduate of William Mason High School — which sits just 25 miles from Great American Ball Park. The 23-year-old Northcut was selected by Boston in the 11th round of the 2018 draft. However, he was considered a top-100 talent in that year’s draft and only lasted as long as he did because he was considered a tough sign who was likely to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt. Boston swayed him with a $565K bonus — roughly in line with late-third-round money. (Pick No. 99 that year, the 25th in the third round, carried a $564K slot value.)
The right-handed-hitting Northcut has appeared at the infield corners almost exclusively in his career, though he did log six innings at shortstop earlier this season (likely in something of emergency fashion). That’s been his lone appearance at any position other than either third base, where he has 1580 professional innings under his belt, or first base, where he’s played 605 frames.
Northcut has shown plenty of pop in the minors this season, swatting 30 home runs and 18 doubles in 428 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A. However, he’s also whiffed in 35% of his trips to the plate and turned in a combined .219/.276/.491 batting line. Northcut’s power is evident, but he’s drawn walks at only a 5.8% clip so far in 2022, which hasn’t been enough to offset the pronounced swing-and-miss in his game.
The struggles to make contact have increased in recent years and prompted Northcut to fall out of the top tiers of the Red Sox’ system; Northcut ranked 19th among Sox farmhands at Baseball America and 23rd at FanGraphs back in 2019 but has fallen off the radar on most prominent assessments of their system. He’ll add a project to Reds’ system, but one with local roots and power that draft-time scouting reports graded as high as 70 on the 20-80 scale.
The Pham swap has worked out reasonably well for the Red Sox, who’ve seen the veteran corner outfielder post a .262/.321/.416 batting line with five homers in 162 plate appearances to this point. That’s about six percent better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but taking a broader look at the team’s deadline maneuverings as a whole, things simply haven’t panned out. Boston traded away catcher Christian Vazquez and veteran reliever Jake Diekman while bringing in Pham and Eric Hosmer and holding onto its most appealing trade candidates (e.g. Nathan Eovaldi). The Sox were 52-52 when the deadline hit but have played at just a 17-21 pace since that time, falling to 10.5 games out of the American League Wild Card chase.
Red Sox Notes: Deadline, Murphy, Payroll, Hosmer, Dalbec
As chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom had suggested in the days leading up to the August 2 trade deadline, the Red Sox resisted strict categorization as a “buyer” or “seller.” Boston dealt #1 catcher Christian Vázquez to the Astros, flipped reliever Jake Diekman to the White Sox for Vázquez’s replacement Reese McGuire, and acquired Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. While Boston reportedly listened to offers on J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill, that group of rentals remained. So did stars Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, neither of whom was apparently ever really available.
The unconventional approach was a response to the Sox’s status just outside the AL Wild Card picture. They sat two games back at the time of the deadline but had gone just 8-19 in July, leading to some calls for more dramatic action in either direction — either tearing the slumping roster down or more aggressively addressing its flaws. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the team’s more fluid approach to the deadline has confused various members of the organization, both uniformed personnel like players and coaches as well as some front office staffers.
Speaking with Speier, Bloom acknowledged the team’s atypical tack but expressed his belief the franchise wasn’t in position to act in a more specific direction. “I understand why people could look at what we did and scratch their heads. To us, it was pretty clear and pretty simple that the position we were in demanded a unique response.”
Speier sheds some light on some of the Sox’s pre-deadline discussions that didn’t ultimately come to fruition. He reports the club expressed some amount of interest in controllable A’s catcher Sean Murphy while also juggling potential shorter-term upgrades. According to Speier, the Red Sox contemplated a run at impending free agent relievers, but the club ultimately didn’t add to a bullpen that currently ranks 26th in the majors in ERA (4.42). At the same time, Boston apparently wasn’t motivated to shed the salaries of players like Martinez and Eovaldi to dip below the $230MM base luxury tax threshold. With the deadline passed, the Sox now look almost certain to pay the tax in 2022. The actual fee will be fairly small — likely just a couple million dollars — but it’ll set the Sox up to pay escalating penalties if they exceed the threshold again in 2023.
Not forcing midseason payroll cuts to a roster a year removed from an appearance in the ALCS is certainly understandable, but one could argue the Red Sox should’ve more aggressively added in that case. Pham and Hosmer do address the team’s biggest weak points on the position player side — right field and first base, respectively — but neither veteran is having a great season. One week certainly isn’t enough on which to base firm conclusions, but a 2-4 stretch since the deadline has dropped Boston five games back in the Wild Card race and only increased the difficulty of a late-season playoff push.
The deadline shuffle did cut into the playing time of a pair of regulars who haven’t performed as expected. Boston released Jackie Bradley Jr. last week, ending his second stint in the organization after a .210/.257/.321 showing through 290 plate appearances. Bobby Dalbec remains on the active roster, but he no longer seems to be Boston’s primary first baseman. Hosmer and Dalbec have platooned since the former was acquired, and the left-handed hitting Hosmer will be in line for the bulk of the playing time in that arrangement.
Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe writes that Dalbec will begin working at second base in an effort to expand his defensive flexibility. The 6’4″, 227 pound infielder has never started a professional game at second base. Aside from a few mop-up innings in the middle infield, he’s played the corners exclusively. Dalbec conceded he has atypical size for a middle infielder but expressed confidence in his ability to handle the keystone adequately.
The 27-year-old also voiced a desire for regular playing time. “The more I play, the better I’ll do. It’s always been like that. I’m used to being an everyday player. It’s hard to have success when you get at-bats here and there,” Dalbec told Abraham. “I’m not the player I will be. This is all part of the learning process. In terms of the organization, I don’t know how they view me. I just want to help the team win. Honestly that’s all that matters. I don’t see myself as a platoon player, but right now that’s what I am.“
Dalbec hit 25 home runs last season but struck out at an alarming 34.4% clip. The Red Sox nevertheless turned to him as the primary first baseman for much of the year, but he’s stumbled to a .205/.280/.369 line across 300 trips to the dish. Dalbec has made some modest improvements to his strikeout and walk numbers, but his contact quality and batted ball results have plummeted. After connecting on 51 extra-base hits in 133 games last season, he’s tallied 20 across 97 contests in 2022.
Both Hosmer and Dalbec could eventually lose playing time to top prospect Triston Casas, who returned from an injured list stint in Triple-A late last month. Recently named the #30 prospect in the game by Baseball America, the power-hitting Casas owns a solid .246/.350/.455 showing through 223 plate appearances with the Sox’s top affiliate in Worcester. The 22-year-old doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the season, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he gets his first MLB look late this year if he continues hitting well with the WooSox.