Tommy Pham

AL East Notes: Adam, Blue Jays, Wells

By Nick Deeds | September 2, 2023 at 10:52pm CDT

Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Rays right-hander Jason Adam was unavailable during tonight’s 7-6 loss to the Guardians due to an oblique strain that will send him to the injured list. Adam hasn’t pitched since August 27 due to the issue. It’s another devastating injury for Tampa’s pitching staff, which has already lost three of its five opening day rotation members for the season in Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan. Now, the bullpen has lost perhaps its most reliable setup arm for right-hander Pete Fairbanks.

After a sensational 2022 campaign with the Rays where Adam posted a 1.56 ERA in 67 appearances, the 31-year-old righty has taken a step back but is still dominant with a 2.67 ERA in 54 innings this season, 56% better than league average by measure of ERA+. With Adam headed to the IL, it’s fair to wonder if his regular season is in jeopardy, though without confirmation from Rays brass its hard to speculate on a timetable for return given the considerable variance in severity regarding oblique injuries. With Adam headed to the shelf, the Rays figure to rely on Fairbanks, Colin Poche, and Robert Stephenson to cover the late innings, with veteran Andrew Kitteredge as a potential X-factor for the bullpen as he returns from last year’s Tommy John surgery.

More from around the AL East…

The Blue Jays had interested in then-Mets outfielder Mark Canha prior to the trade deadline, when he was ultimately traded to the Brewers. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, the club considered dealing for an additional bat like Canha or fellow Met Tommy Pham (who was eventually traded to Arizona) before ultimately opting to rely on prospect Davis Schneider to boost the offense down the stretch. While the decision to lean on Schneider looks prescient as the 24-year-old has set the world on fire with a 270 wRC+ in his first 15 games, a bat like Canha or Pham would surely help cover for the loss of Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman to the injured list earlier this week. Nicholson-Smith also notes that the club rebuffed interest from a free agent middle infielder toward the end of August in deference to Ernie Clement, who like Schneider has also delivered in a small sample size since taking over for Bichette at shortstop.
Orioles right-hander Tyler Wells is struggling with arm fatigue as he converts to a bullpen role with Triple-A Norfolk, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com) today. As Rill notes, Wells last pitched on August 25, with Hyde noting that the righty hasn’t “bounced back” from his last outing as hoped. Wells posted a 3.18 ERA in 104 2/3 innings of work prior to the All Star break but was rocked for 11 runs in nine innings of work in three appearances after the break, prompting the club to demote the 29-year-old hurler for a conversion to the bullpen.

D-Backs Acquire Tommy Pham

By Anthony Franco | August 1, 2023 at 4:50pm CDT

The Diamondbacks acquired outfielder Tommy Pham and cash considerations from the Mets. New York received minor league infielder Jeremy Rodriguez in return. The Mets are reportedly paying down half the money that remains on Pham’s deal.

Pham got off to a relatively slow start after signing with the Mets over the offseason. He hit only .196/.283/.348 through the end of April, leading to some speculation the Mets could cut into his playing time. The veteran put that behind him and has been one of the league’s better hitters since the start of May.

Over the past three months, the 35-year-old is hitting .286/.365/.503. He’s up to a .268/.348/.472 line in 264 plate appearances overall. Pham has connected on 10 home runs, walked at a strong 11% clip and kept his strikeouts to a decent 21.2% rate. It’s easily his best offensive showing in four years, more or less a return to his peak form.

A right-handed hitter, Pham has done the bulk of his damage against left-handed pitching through the course of his career. He has had more balanced results in 2023, posting a .255/.339/.532 line versus southpaws and a .277/.355/.431 showing against right-handed pitching. That kind of production fits well in the middle of a batting order.

Pham’s bat is his calling card. He has started five games in center field this year but is primarily a left fielder. Public metrics have pegged him as a slightly below-average defender for the past few seasons. It’s been a similar story through 395 2/3 innings this year.

The Mets have dramatically reshaped the roster within the past week. They’ve been expected to listen to offers on rentals, but the magnitude of their sell-off has outstretched expectations. The deals of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander represent a massive change in direction for the organization. Moving shorter-term role players like Pham is relatively small in comparison.

Pham received a $1MM signing bonus and is playing this season on a $5MM salary. He’s due roughly $1.64MM from now through the end of the season, with each club picking up around $800K. He’ll tack on a good chunk more in incentives. Pham has already triggered $400K in bonuses and will earn another $200K for every 25 plate appearances between 275 and 450.

Arizona has a number of young outfielders at the major league level. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy all hit from the left side. Thomas hasn’t produced much offensively in his career, while McCarthy has slumped to a .251/.326/.346 line through 75 games after a promising 2022 campaign. Arizona brought in Kyle Lewis and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in offseason trades to balance the outfield. Lewis has spent most of his time in Triple-A; Gurriel got off to a torrid start in the desert but has just a .180/.225/.337 line since the beginning of June.

The Pham acquisition presumably pushes Gurriel into more of a bench/designated hitter role. The D-Backs have rotated a number of players through the DH spot to keep them fresh throughout the season.

Rodriguez is a 17-year-old infielder from the Dominican Republic. The Snakes signed him for $1.25MM just a few months ago. Ben Badler of Baseball America praised his left-handed swing and infield actions in reviewing Arizona’s international signing class. Rodriguez is nowhere close to the majors but resents another upside lottery play for New York, a similar mold to the two players they acquired from the Marlins for David Robertson last week.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported the Diamondbacks were acquiring Pham. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the Mets would get Rodriguez in return. Tim Britton of the Athletic reported the cash considerations.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Getting Interest In Tommy Pham, Brooks Raley

By Steve Adams | August 1, 2023 at 9:13am CDT

The Mets have plenty of interest in outfielder Tommy Pham and left-handed reliever Brooks Raley, reports Andy Martino of SNY. A Pham trade could come together soon, per the report, but the Mets are weighing whether to trade Raley at all or hang onto him and the $6.5MM option they hold over his 2024 season. That option comes with a $1.25MM buyout, so it’s effectively a net $5.25MM decision, which seems more than reasonable for Raley.

Pham, 35, is all but certain to be traded today. He’s still owed $2MM of this season’s $6MM salary and will be a free agent at season’s end. The veteran right-handed hitter has turned in a strong .268/.348/.472 batting line in 2023, adding in 10 home runs, 15 doubles, a triple and 11 stolen bases (in 12 tries). He’s walked at a stout 11% clip and is striking out at a 21.2% rate. Pham’s once strong defensive ratings have dipped to below average as he’s aged into his mid-30s, but the Mets have felt comfortable enough to play him for 45 innings in center this season in addition to 395 frames in his more customary left field slot.

There are plenty of teams looking for outfield help — the Twins, Phillies, Padres and perhaps Yankees among them. Both Philadelphia and Minnesota are said to be eyeing right-handed bats, in particular. The Mets have already shown a willingness to trade within the division, sending closer David Robertson to the Marlins, so it stands to reason they’d have minimal qualms about sending Pham to the NL East-rival Phillies if Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski winds up making the best offer.

Raley, meanwhile, isn’t necessarily the lock to be moved that Pham seems to be. Also 35, the left-hander has had an excellent season out of Buck Showalter’s bullpen, pitching to a 2.37 ERA with a 26.2% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate, 38.5% grounder rate and just 0.71 HR/9. It’s the second straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA and strikeout rate north of 26% for Raley, who’s actually been more effective against right-handed opponents than lefties. Virtually every contending club is interest in upgrading its bullpen, and while Raley isn’t the type of power arm teams gravitate toward — he’s averaging just 90.2 mph on his sinker — the bottom-line results are nevertheless appealing. Martino describes interest in Raley as “significant.”

It figures to be an active day for the Mets, who have not only Pham and Raley to peddle but also future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. The Mets are also surely open to offers on catcher Omar Narvaez and righty Adam Ottavino, both of whom have player options for the 2024 season. Narvaez’s struggles this year will make it extremely difficult to trade him, as he looks quite likely to exercise next year’s $8MM player option. Ottavino is pitching well, however, and with a strong finish to the season would be likely to turn down his own $6.5MM player option in search of a larger deal on the open market.

Brewers Interested In Further Offensive Additions

By Nick Deeds | July 31, 2023 at 11:26am CDT

The Brewers are hoping to add another bat to their lineup ahead of the deadline even after landing first baseman Carlos Santana in a deal with the Pirates last week, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. That Milwaukee is looking to add to their offense is hardly a surprise. The club’s collective wRC+ this season stands at just 88, bottom five in the sport and ahead of only the Rockies in the NL. While Santana addresses their lack of production from first base, they nonetheless have plenty of offensive holes to fill around their roster.

The club has gotten below average offensive production from every position around the diamond except for left field this season, though that certainly doesn’t mean they’ll be looking to upgrade their entire offense. Shortstop Willy Adames figures to be secure in his role, for example, and newly-promoted outfielder Sal Frelick figures to handle right field on a regular basis going forward. Given Joey Wiemer’s quality defense in center field, it seems reasonable to expect him to remain a fixture in the lineup as well despite a lackluster wRC+ of 82.

The club could look to add offense to its infield by swinging a deal for third baseman Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals or second baseman Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, but the market for Candelario appears to be quite crowded and the Yankees currently appear more likely to buy than sell. That being said, either player would inject a well above-average bat into the club’s infield alongside Adames and Andruw Monasterio, the latter of whom can play anywhere on the infield as needed to accommodate a potential acquisition.

While an infield addition would make sense, the most straightforward way for the Brewers to improve their offensive production would be targeting an addition at DH. The club has gotten a pathetic 55 wRC+ from their DH slot to this point in the season, dead last in the majors. Adding a surefire, above-average bat who can be slotted in at DH on a daily basis would transform the look of the club’s lineup, and Matt Arnold’s front office seems to know that given their reported interest in White Sox slugger Eloy Jimenez.

Jimenez, a former top prospect with a career 123 wRC+ and a contract that allows his club to control him through the end of the 2026 campaign, would be an excellent pickup for the Brewers, though he would likely come at a fairly hefty acquisition cost considering those positive attributes. There are a handful of rental options that could also be available to impact the club’s offensive profile at what would likely be a much more affordable prospect cost. Tommy Pham of the Mets, in particular, is a free agent after this season but has delivered a .268/.348/.472 slash line in 264 trips to the plate this season. Other possible options include Pham’s teammate Mark Canha or Red Sox slugger Adam Duvall.

While the Brewers are focused on adding to their offense, they appear to feel comfortable with their pitching staff as is with Rosenthal noting that Milwaukee does not expect to jump into the starting pitching market even after the loss of right-hander Julio Teheran to the injured list. Left-hander Wade Miley is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list on Wednesday, while Rosenthal notes that righty Brandon Woodruff is set to make a rehab start tomorrow and could also rejoin the rotation in the near future.

Latest On Justin Verlander

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2023 at 3:02pm CDT

Few potential trade candidates are as notable as Justin Verlander. There are myriad complications that could stand in the way of a deal, but there’s been speculation over the past couple days about the chance of Verlander being on the move.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested Thursday night there was some industry sentiment the Mets would look to move him. Feinsand listed the Astros and Rangers as potential fits. Will Sammon and Tim Britton of the Athletic also indicated that the two Texas-based franchises had expressed some interest, writing that the Mets at least appear willing to genuinely consider offers on Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Still, it remains to be seen how aggressively other teams would pursue either player. Sammon and Britton characterize Texas’ interest in Verlander mostly as due diligence as they evaluate all their rotation possibilities. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas would be open to surpassing the competitive balance tax threshold in a Verlander trade. However, he similarly indicated the Rangers are checking in on virtually every pitcher on the market, with nothing to suggest Verlander talks have gotten particularly advanced. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Texas has also inquired on reliever Brooks Raley and corner outfielder Tommy Pham.

Texas has a luxury tax number around $224MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re $9MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. Verlander is due around $15.4MM through season’s end, so an acquisition would push Texas past that marker unless the Mets paid down a significant chunk of the salary.

New York might be willing to do so. They paid down all of Eduardo Escobar’s deal and are reportedly willing to send cash in other trades, although they didn’t include any money in the David Robertson swap with Miami. There’s a ways to go to get to that point, though. New York would have to weigh the possible return against subtracting a key player who’s under contract for 2024, when the Mets surely envision a return to competitiveness.

That’s even before considering the players’ ability to block any deal. Both Verlander and Scherzer have complete no-trade rights. Understandably, neither has gone on record about whether they’d waive that provision. Verlander said a few days ago the Mets had not approached him about that possibility. Scherzer told the New York beat last night that he’d likely speak with the front office about the franchise’s direction over the next few days. Sherman indicates the Mets would only gauge the pitchers’ willingness to waive the no-trade clauses if they first find a potentially workable trade package.

Texas pursued Verlander as a free agent last winter. He reportedly wasn’t keen on joining the Rangers at the time, although that’s seemingly because he questioned how quickly they’d be competitive. That’s no longer in doubt with the Rangers topping the AL West by two games and motivated deadline buyers.

There’s plenty of familiarity between Verlander and the Astros, of course. Houston has been on the hunt for a starting pitcher for a few weeks. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the rotation need a bit after acquiring reliever Kendall Graveman yesterday, however. Brown indicated that while Houston was still open to adding a starter, the rotation is “not as high a priority as the bullpen was,” in part because of the loftier asking price teams are demanding to relinquish starting pitching (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic).

Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2023 at 8:12am CDT

The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.

Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.

One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.

Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.

Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.

Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.

Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.

“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.

Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.

Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.

NL East Notes: Candelario, Marlins, Pham, Phillies, Dominguez, Hoskins

By Mark Polishuk | July 23, 2023 at 5:21pm CDT

The Marlins have interest in Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Miami views “Candelario as a perfect fit.” With a cumulative -0.9 bWAR posted by Marlins third basemen this season, no team has received less from the hot corner than the Fish, as Jean Segura’s resurgence over the last few weeks haven’t been enough to erase his very rough performance over the first three months. Segura could move into a utility role in the event of a Candelario trade, as Luis Arraez is a lineup fixture at second base, Jorge Soler is primarily a DH, and the hot-hitting Garrett Cooper is the primary first baseman.

Candelario is one of the more obvious trade candidates available heading into the deadline, as the Nationals are out of the race and Candelario will be a free agent after the season. After a poor 2022 season with the Tigers, Candelario has bounced back nicely to hit .254/.333/.474 with 15 homers over 390 plate appearances with Washington. He is owed roughly $1.8MM in remaining salary this season, which is a modest sum anyway but shouldn’t be a problem for the Marlins — owner Bruce Sherman has promised financial “resources” for deadline additions. Of course, Sherman’s statement came before Miami suffered through an eight-game losing streak out of the All-Star break, but the Fish got back into the win column with today’s 3-2 win over the Rockies.

Looking Back At A Rare Trade Miss For The Rays

By Darragh McDonald | April 27, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

Why do teams even bother trading with the Rays? The club has built a reputation as one that wins every deal it makes, a legend that goes back to at least 2014, based on this classic Tweet. Whenever they swing a deal, there are inevitable comments with observers wondering why other clubs even bother getting involved with Tampa when they’re bound to get fleeced.

It’s understandable why that discourse exists as the Rays have shown a knack to turn unheralded players into stars. Looking at the current roster, we find players like Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, Drew Rasmussen and others who seemed to completely alter their trajectory after moving to Tampa. It’s a testament to the organization that they seem to continually get the best out of their players, whether it’s ones they’ve traded for or those they originally drafted or signed.

It’s also what helps them repeatedly field competitive clubs despite rarely spending money. They’ve made the playoffs in eight of the past 15 seasons, including each of the past four, and seem well on their way to get back there again despite playing in the stacked AL East. In the last 20 years, they’ve only once spent enough to get out of the bottom five, per the figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

That being said, no club is perfect. They are run by human beings just like all the others and they make mistakes. Let’s take a look at a deal from December 2019 that looks like a whiff.

Padres get outfielder Tommy Pham and infield prospect Jake Cronenworth
Rays get outfielder Hunter Renfroe, infield prospect Xavier Edwards and a player to be named later, eventually revealed as infield prospect Esteban Quiroz

This deal has the vague feel of a classic Rays trade, as they often take quality players and flip them for others who are almost as good but cheaper and with more control. If they help the new player become just as good or better than the one they gave up, then it works out as a nice bit of business for a low-spending club.

There’s no doubt Pham was better than Renfroe at that time. In the three years leading up to the deal, he had hit 65 home runs and slashed .284/.381/.475 for a wRC+ of 133. Renfroe’s batting line was .231/.291/.486 for a wRC+ of 102. He actually hit significantly more homers than Pham with 85, but his 7.3% walk rate was well below Pham’s 12.5% clip. He also struck out 28.5% of the time compared to Pham’s 21.7% rate. The defensive edge was debatable, as Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average preferred Renfroe while Ultimate Zone Rating gave the nod to Pham, though a lot of Pham’s work came in the more-demanding position of center field. Pham definitely provided more value on the basepaths, including stealing 65 bases to Renfroe’s 10. His 13.1 wins above replacement tally from FanGraphs in those three years was well ahead of Renfroe’s 4.3.

But turning to the financials, Pham had two years of remaining club control and was projected to make $8.6MM in 2020. Renfroe just qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player, meaning he had four years of control remaining and was projected for a $3.4MM salary. If the Rays could somehow coax some better plate discipline out of Renfroe, they could wind up with a fairly similar player for less money and more control.

Pham went on to struggle in 2020 but bounce back with a serviceable 2021 campaign. Renfroe, however, had a dismal season in 2020. He did make some slight improvements at the plate, walking at a 10.1% clip and striking out at a 26.6% rate, but he hit just .156/.252/.393 for a wRC+ of 78. His .141 batting average on balls in play certainly points to a lot of bad luck, and he’s been better since then, but the Rays decided to move on by designating him for assignment at season’s end.

There’s always risk in taking this path, assuming that the lesser player can simply be changed in a way that they replace the better player, but the Rays also had some insurance. They were getting a young prospect on the rise in Edwards. He was just the Padres’ #21 prospect coming into 2019, per Baseball America, but he hit .322/.375/.396 for a 121 wRC+ between Single-A and High-A that year. He only hit one home run, but he struck out at a tiny 9.6% rate and stole 34 bases. After the deal, BA ranked him the #85 prospect in the entire league.

Unfortunately, he never really developed any more power and the speed proved less game-changing as he moved up the minor league ladder. After the minor leagues were canceled in 2020, he went up to Double-A in 2021. He didn’t hit a single home run in 337 plate appearances over 79 games. His .302/.377/.368 batting line was still above average, translating to a wRC+ 113, but it was a bit of a drop from his breakout.

Last year, he got bumped to Triple-A and managed to hit five home runs in 400 trips to the plate, but the rest of the picture wasn’t as pretty. His 18.8% strikeout rate was still a bit below average, but it was much higher than any season before. His .246/.328/.350 line amounted to a wRC+ of 84 and he only stole seven bases in 11 tries over 93 games. This past offseason, with the Rays facing a roster crunch, they dealt Edwards and JT Chargois to the Marlins for prospects Marcus Johnson and Santiago Suarez. Johnson and Suarez were respectively ranked the club’s #25 and #17 prospects by BA coming into this year. Those youngsters mean the Rays could still salvage something from Edwards indirectly, but it’s surely not the outcome they envisioned when they initially brought him aboard. Neither Johnson nor Suarez has reached even High-A yet, so any forthcoming payday will have to wait.

The best saving grace of the deal from Tampa’s perspective right now is that the player to be named later, Quiroz, had a nice season in 2021 and was flipped to the Cubs for Harold Ramírez. This is more the classic Rays trade that we all know, where a somewhat flawed player seems to find their ceiling in Tampa. Ramírez had cracked BA’s top 100 list back in 2016 while with the Pirates, but later bounced around to Toronto, Miami and Cleveland. By the end of 2021, he had received 818 major league plate appearances but had hit .271/.308/.405 for a wRC+ of 91. For a guy with little speed and subpar defense, that wasn’t terribly exciting.

Cleveland designated Ramírez for assignment after 2021 and then flipped him to the Cubs for cash. At the end of March, the Cubs sent him to the Rays for Quiroz, seeming to indicate he wouldn’t make the team out of spring. Since he was out of options, they couldn’t send him down and at least got Quiroz out of it. The Rays would have to keep Ramírez on the active roster as well, though that hasn’t been a problem as he has mashed since the deal. In 139 games as a Ray, he’s hit .308/.353/.442 for a wRC+ of 132. He still doesn’t walk much and his defense is still subpar, but he’s hard to strike out and hits the ball hard. The Rays can control him through 2025.

From the Padres’ point of view, Pham was just okay in his two seasons there but the real coup was getting Cronenworth. A seventh round draft pick, he was never at the top of any prospect lists while in the minors. He was ranked #18 in the Rays’ system by BA in 2018 and then #15 in the Padres’ system in 2020 after the deal. He then cracked the Opening Day roster in the shortened season, striking out in just 15.6% of his plate appearances that year while hitting .285/.354/.477 for a wRC+ of 126. He hasn’t quite maintained that pace but has continued to be above average, with his career batting line now at .254/.336/.433, translating to a 114 wRC+.

He’s also provided tremendous defensive versatility, bouncing around the infield as needed. He’s mostly played second base but has also spent time at third and shortstop. When the Friars signed Xander Bogaerts to take over at short, they seemed to have little hesitation about moving Ha-Seong Kim to second and Cronenworth over to first. His DRS numbers at short are subpar, but he’s considered average or better at the other spots, while UZR and OAA think he’s average or better everywhere. The club is so enamored with him that they signed him to a seven-year, $80MM extension in the offseason.

In the end, the deal wasn’t a total loss for the Rays, since they were able to flip one of the pieces to get a solid player in Ramírez. But it shows that MLB decision makers don’t necessarily need to block phone calls coming from Tampa. You could get someone like Cronenworth or perhaps Nathaniel Lowe or maybe Willy Adames or even Blake Snell or how about José Alvarado or someone like Joe Ryan?

Mets Notes: Senga, DH, McNeil, Extensions

By Anthony Franco | February 2, 2023 at 11:43pm CDT

One of the bigger moves of the Mets’ active offseason was the signing of starter Kodai Senga to a five-year, $75MM guarantee. The 30-year-old righty is making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he posted a 2.59 ERA across 11 seasons. Senga was one of the highest-upside hurlers available in free agency, though there’s naturally some amount of performance risk until he translates his production against MLB competition.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Mets also expressed some concern about Senga’s medical evaluations before finalizing the contract in December. Further details aren’t clear, though Heyman notes Mets personnel have expressed confidence in Senga’s health prognosis for the upcoming season. That’s hardly surprising, as whatever concerns the organization had raised didn’t deter them from agreeing to the fourth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher this offseason. That contract also affords Senga an opportunity to opt out and retest the market after the 2025 season, though the Associated Press reports that’s contingent on the righty throwing a combined 400 innings over the next three years.

In other news out of Queens:

The Mets never pursued a full-time designated hitter upgrade this offseason partially out of a desire to preserve a path to at-bats for their younger hitters, writes Andy Martino of SNY. Top prospects Francicso Álvarez and Brett Baty each reached the majors late in the 2022 season. Each is a polished hitter but faces questions about their defense at catcher and third base, respectively. That’s also true of corner infielder Mark Vientos, who’s not quite the same caliber of prospect as Álvarez or Baty but earned an MLB look with a .280/.358/.519 showing at Triple-A Syracuse. Martino suggests the Mets aren’t likely to give them early-season looks at DH in hopes of each continuing to show progress defensively, though there could be a path to bat-only reps later in the year — or for veteran Eduardo Escobar to slide to DH if Baty seized the third base job at some point. Lefty-swinging veteran Daniel Vogelbach earned the larger share of a DH platoon to open the year with an excellent .261/.382/.497 showing against righties anyhow. Offseason signee Tommy Pham or last summer’s deadline pickup Darin Ruf are righty bats who could shoulder the load against southpaws. Ruf’s second-half struggles give Pham the upper hand in that regard, but Martino writes the Mets are at least likely to carry Ruf on the roster into Spring Training.
New York locked up one of their homegrown stars last Friday, signing Jeff McNeil to a four-year, $50MM extension to potentially buy out a trio of free agent years. General manager Billy Eppler addressed the deal earlier this week, expressing broad openness to negotiations with other important players who are early in their careers (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). First baseman Pete Alonso is the most logical candidate for those kinds of talks as he enters his penultimate season of arbitration control, though neither Eppler nor Alonso’s representatives at Apex Baseball have indicated publicly whether discussions might take place over the coming weeks. Discussions with McNeil, at least, were a long time running before culminating in a deal. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports Eppler and McNeil’s camp at Paragon Sports International first opened extension talks in November 2021, just before the lockout froze communications between teams and 40-man roster players until March.

Mets To Sign Tommy Pham

By Steve Adams | January 18, 2023 at 12:47pm CDT

Jan. 20: Pham has passed his physical, tweets Nightengale. The outfielder will earn a $200K bonus upon reaching 225 plate appearances with the Mets, and he’ll unlock additional $200K bonuses for every 25th plate appearance thereafter, all the way up through 450 plate appearances. With the physical complete, the Mets should announce the deal sooner than later.

Jan. 18, 10:26am: It’s a one-year, $6MM contract for Pham, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the contract contains $2MM of available incentives and is expected to be finalized Thursday.

10:08am: The Mets and Pham have agreed to terms on a contract, Martino tweets. The deal is pending a physical.

9:44am: The Mets have an offer on the table to free-agent outfielder Tommy Pham and is optimistic about completing a deal, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. The Mets also made offers to Andrew McCutchen and Adam Duvall, per the report, but McCutchen preferred to go back to his original team in Pittsburgh while Duvall had the opportunity for more playing time in Boston.

Pham, 35 in March, split the 2022 season between Cincinnati and Boston, batting a combined .236/.312/.374 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases in 622 plate appearances. It was a down season overall, but Pham’s line included a stout .273/.338/.446 batting line against left-handed pitching.

Additionally, Pham’s batted-ball profile also serves as a portent for increased production in the future. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 93rd percentile of all big league hitters, while his 48.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 89th percentile, per Statcast. Even if bat doesn’t bounce all the way back to the levels those numbers suggest, there’s a good chance he can be a useful platoon option. Also, Pham also still drew favorable rankings for his arm strength in the outfield (74th percentile) and average sprint speed (66th percentile). Defensive metrics panned his glovework on the whole (0 DRS, -6 OAA), but the tools are there for him to rebound in that capacity as well.

From 2015-19, Pham was one of the game’s most underrated outfielders, batting a combined .277/.373/.472 (130 wRC+) with a hefty 12.2% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter overall since that time, but given his speed, arm strength and solid production against lefties, he’s a nice bat to have on the bench.

Pham is mostly limited to left field at this point in his career — he has just 91 innings in center field an seven in right field since 2018 — but he’ll give the Mets some outfield insurance while perhaps serving as a right-handed complement to lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach. That’s especially true if the Mets look to move on from Darin Ruf after a disappointing couple months in Queens following last year’s acquisition at the trade deadline.

While Pham himself might not be a backup option to Brandon Nimmo in center field, adding him to the mix provides the Mets with some additional cover in the event of an outfield injury. For instance, both left fielder Mark Canha and (especially) right fielder Starling Marte have experience in center field, so either could shift to center should Nimmo need a day off or a trip to the IL, with Pham then slotting into left field and Marte/Canha covering the other two outfield slots.

The Mets also have 24-year-old Khalil Lee as a lefty-hitting outfielder who can fill in at all three spots, though he has a minor league option remaining. Pham’s addition creates the possibility of sending Lee to Triple-A Syracuse for regular playing time — a luxury the team may not have previously been able to afford. Previously, the Mets’ only outfielders on the 40-man roster all projected to be on the big league roster as well, so the extra depth fills a clear need.

On top of Pham’s $6MM, the Mets owe a 90% luxury tax of $5.4MM, bringing their total tab for the signing to $11.4MM. New York’s projected bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season jumps to a bit more than $356MM, with about $374MM in luxury-tax considerations on the books. That puts them in well into the top luxury bracket and sets the stage for the Mets to be a third-time payor in the 2024 season, which point they’d owe an even steeper 110% tax on every dollar spent above the top line. Owner Steve Cohen has shown little concern with such penalties, however, and Pham’s luxury hit will be a relative drop in the bucket compared to the sum the Mets were planning to pay Carlos Correa before concerns regarding his medicals scuttled the 12-year deal between the two parties.

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