Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham’s time with the Padres hasn’t gone as he or the organization would’ve hoped at the time of his acquisition from the Rays. The 33-year-old outfielder missed a chunk of “Summer Camp” last July after testing positive for Covid-19, and he suffered a broken hamate bone mid-August, limiting him to just 31 games. Even more alarming was a frightening offseason scene in which Pham was stabbed outside a San Diego club — a life-threatening attack that required 200 stitches and left the outfielder with a footlong scar on his back.

Pham, remarkably, managed to participate in Spring Training and was able to take the field come Opening Day for the Padres. It marked an incredible recovery, but it’s clear that that wave of health issues has taken its toll on Pham. Through 150 games and 553 plate appearances, Pham has posted just a .229/.342/.383 batting line. He’s drawing walks at a career-high 14.1 percent clip, but he’s also striking out at high highest rate since 2018 (22.8 percent) and hasn’t matched the power he showed from 2016-19. Given that Pham is set to hit the open market at season’s end, the combined .226/.336/.370 slash he’s delivered in two years with the Padres is all the more disappointing.

In a postgame interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Annie Heilbrunn (YouTube link), Pham was candid in discussing his health, his own lackluster performance and the second-half collapse of his team. Asked about the Padres’ descent from what looked like a surefire playoff club to a team fighting to finish .500, Pham placed no shortage of blame on himself.

“I didn’t play well enough,” Pham said when asked what went wrong for the Padres. “…I’ve got to be a more consistent hitter. I’ve got to work on regaining my strength and speed this offseason. I have a lot to work on.”

Obviously, the Padres’ nosedive in the standings is related to far more than just a disappointing season for Pham, who couldn’t have anything resembling a normal offseason while recovering from surgery in the wake of that stabbing. However, Pham’s acknowledgement regarding his speed and strength (or lack thereof) is indeed borne out when looking at his Statcast profile.

Pham’s average exit velocity dropped by a hefty 1.9 mph in spite of the fact that his percentage of “barreled” balls improved from 7.3 percent to 10.1 percent. As Pham explains to Heilbrunn: “…even the balls I’ve been barreling, the exit velocity just ain’t there.”

From a speed perspective, Pham is still a better runner than the average big leaguer, but his sprint speed of 27.8 feet per second is down from last year’s 28.2 ft/sec and down more handily from the 28.7 ft/sec he posted in each season from 2016-19. It should be noted that Pham’s 90.9 mph exit velocity and 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed still rank in the 78th and 70th percentiles among big league players.

It’s all led to a stark downturn in performance for Pham, who from 2017-19 was among the game’s most underrated players. A 2017 breakout saw him post a huge .306/.411/.520 batting line with 23 homers and 25 steals in just 530 plate appearances/128 games. Pham largely sustained his production in his two subsequent healthy seasons, wrapping that three-year stretch up with a composite .284/.381/.475 line. He was worth 13.5 and 13.8 wins above replacement, respectively, in the estimation of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs during that time.

Had Pham reached the market on the heels of that three-year run, he’d have been extremely well compensated. But as a late-bloomer who didn’t get an earnest look with the Cardinals until 2017, at age 29, Pham will instead reach free agency headed into his age-34 campaign and on the heels of a pair of highly unfortunate seasons. He’s realistic about the toll these past two years have likely taken on his market.

“I didn’t have the season I was expecting,” says Pham. “I’m fully prepared to take a one-year deal and reestablish my market.”

[Related: 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List]

That’s a tough proposition for a player entering his mid-30s, however. Pham will be 34 next March, so even if he indeed reestablishes himself as a quality all-around corner outfielder, he’ll do so in advance of his age-35 campaign.

Given the manner in which teams are increasingly reluctant to sign mid-30s and late-30s players to lucrative multi-year deals, it’s fair to question just what type of ceiling would be placed on Pham’s earning power even if he does rebound in full. Michael Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM contract covering his age-34 and age-35 seasons after playing for three years at a roughly three- to four-win pace, however, so there’s some recent precedent for a corner outfielder in this age bracket commanding a rather lucrative multi-year pact.

Of course, any such talk is putting the cart before the horse. Pham’s focus in the offseason will be both getting back into peak physical condition and finding the best opportunity for the 2022 season. It’s not out of the question that teams would have some interest on a multi-year contract, given Pham’s prior excellence. Pham, however, sounded plenty confident in his ability to rebound from these past couple seasons and position himself for a stronger annual value in future trips to the market. Unsurprisingly, he made clear that he’d welcome the opportunity to do so with the Padres, though he gave no indication any such negotiations have taken place just yet.

Tommy Pham will be tendered a contract by the Padres prior to today’s 7pm CT deadline, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (Twitter link).  The Padres’ decision ends months of speculation that Pham could be non-tendered a way of saving a projected arbitration salary of roughly $8MM for the 2021 season.

It was a tumultuous first season for Pham in San Diego after being acquired (along with Jake Cronenworth) as part of a trade with the Rays last offseason — a deal made in part so Tampa Bay could escape Pham’s escalating arbitration price tag.  Pham hit only .211/.312/.312 over 125 plate appearances and missed time in September due to a fractured left hamate bone.  He was able to return in time for the postseason, and delivered a big performance (1.077 OPS in 13 PA) during the Padres’ wild card series victory over the Cardinals.

Since the season ended, Pham was stabbed in the lower back after an incident in a parking lot, though he thankfully escaped with seemingly only minor injuries.  Pham also underwent surgery on his left wrist at some point in the offseason.

With all of these factors in mind, the Padres still obviously feel comfortable enough in Pham’s ability to bounce back that the team was comfortable in offering him another contract.  Pham, after all, posted outstanding numbers (.284/.381/.475 with 65 homers) over 1754 plate appearances with the Cardinals and Rays from 2017-19, so there’s plenty of evidence that a healthy Pham can provide even more hitting depth within an already strong Padres lineup.

Padres outfielder Tommy Pham underwent surgery to repair a a tear of the triangular fibrocartilage complex in his left wrist at some point in the past couple of months, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The specific timing of the procedure remains unclear. The Padres did not announce the surgery at the time it was performed.

Pham, according to Rosenthal, is already lifting weights but has yet to swing a bat since undergoing this latest surgery. He had surgery on the same wrist back in August after suffering a fractured hamate bone when he was hit by a pitch, and he also underwent surgery after a frightening incident in early October wherein Pham was stabbed in the lower back. The Padres announced at the time that Pham was in “good condition” following that surgery, and Pham now tells Rosenthal that this latest wrist procedure has improved his grip strength.

A third surgery and, more importantly, Pham’s recovery from said procedure are all the more noteworthy given that the 32-year-old outfielder is up for arbitration for the final time this offseason. The Padres have until tomorrow evening to determine whether they’ll tender a contract to Pham, whom they acquired alongside Jake Cronenworth last winter in a trade that sent Hunter Renfroe, top prospect Xavier Edwards and minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz to the Rays.

Pham struggled to the worst performance of his career in San Diego, slashing just .211/.312/.312 through 125 plate appearances. Of course, if the current wrist issue was bothering him during the season and impacting his grip strength, that would of course explain the downturn at the plate — at least to some extent. Pham’s track record is quite strong — evidenced by a .284/.381/.475 slash in 410 games from 2017-19 — and a healthy Pham would make for an appealing bounceback candidate.

However, that same track record calls Pham’s future with the Padres into question, as it’s also the reason that he earned $7.9MM in arbitration this past season. Pham could see a nominal uptick from that rate in the arb process, and he would at least be a candidate to simply repeat that salary in 2021. Given the uncertainty surrounding his health, however, he stands out as a potential non-tender candidate prior. If the Padres don’t plan to tender a contract to Pham, then they’ve likely already been shopping him in recent days and will continue to do so in the hours leading up to tomorrow night’s deadline.

In a scary development, Padres outfielder Tommy Pham underwent surgery after being stabbed in his lower back Sunday night, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Fortunately, he is “currently in good condition,” the team announced.

Pham came upon an argument near his car between individuals whom he did not know, Acee reports. The 32-year-old was attacked after asking those involved to move away from his vehicle. Fortunately, Pham avoided organ damage, although he did require stitches, Acee adds.

“I’d like to thank the incredible medical staff at UC San Diego Health for taking such great care of me last night,” Pham said in a statement. “I truly appreciate the hard work of the (San Diego Police Department) as well as they continue their search for the suspects. While it was a very traumatic and eye-opening experience for me, I’m on the road to recovery and I know I’ll be back to my offseason training routine in no time.”

Pham came to San Diego last offseason in a trade with the Rays. There’s no indication at this point that yesterday’s incident will affect his readiness for Spring Training. We at MLBTR wish Pham well in his recovery.