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Blue Jays Rumors

MLBTR Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract

By Dylan A. Chase | December 15, 2019 at 12:04am CDT

The top tier of the free agent pitching market has been shorn away. Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), and Zack Wheeler ($118MM) all handily outpaced our guarantee projections from earlier this offseason, leaving an open question: what about the best of the rest? With Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels accepting a qualifying offer and an early deal, respectively, the market’s current top starters are likely Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.

We’ve already heard that Bumgarner is looking to shoot over the $100MM threshold, and one team has reportedly provided him with a $70MM floor. Keuchel, solid pitcher though he is, comes back to the open market on the heels of a prorated Atlanta season that saw him pitch to a 4.72 FIP–the $39MM projection we tagged him with back in November still feels like a reasonable ballpark. But where do recent developments leave Ryu?

Simply scanning reader comments on any Ryu-related article this offseason would lend you a pretty solid sense of the wide range of opinions surrounding Ryu’s left arm. There’s no question that arm is effective–you don’t pitch to a career 2.98 ERA or sub-2.00 career BB/9 rate without a surgical level of skill. There’s also no question the former KBO standout is hitting the market at the right time. If Cole can parlay a second-place Cy Young finish into a record-setting free agent payday, what prize should remain for the award’s NL runner-up?

The answer to that question will likely hinge upon how risk-averse front offices will feel as they survey the market’s remaining options. Few pitchers hit free agency free of some historical health concerns (Strasburg and Wheeler included); at the same time, Ryu has hardly been a picture of durability to this point in his major league career. Since coming to L.A. in advance of the 2013 season, Ryu has made 125 starts in seven seasons–an average of 17.8 starts per year. Then again, maybe that’s not a fair depiction: it may be more accurate to simply say that shoulder and elbow surgeries limited him to one appearance from 2015-2016, while he was likewise limited to just 15 starts in 2018.

But for teams looking for premium performance, the 32-year-old Ryu has a clear leg up on just about anyone currently available. He’s logged two consecutive seasons in the top five percent of pitchers in terms of walk rate and he induces ground balls at a very healthy clip. According to Statcast, he’s almost unmatched when it comes to limiting hard contact: hitters managed just an 85.3 mean exit velocity against Ryu’s five-pitch arsenal last year, a mark that ranked in the game’s top four percent. He just won the ERA title, after a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 earned run average in 15 starts. You get the picture–Ryu is very good at pitching, when healthy.

In advance of the 2017 season, the Dodgers signed lefty Rich Hill to a three-year, $48MM deal. To that point, Hill had twice exceeded the 100-inning threshold at the major league level in a 12-year career. He was set to turn 37 the following spring. To boot, that deal took place three years ago and in advance of several record-setting contracts for open-market pitching. The question is: what does a high-performing, oft-ailing pitcher deserve three years on from when Hill secured $48MM in guarantees? We predicted three years and $54MM for Ryu at the winter’s outset, but, in the wake of this offseason’s events (and considering the Wheeler deal, especially) there seems to be a fair argument that his horizons have expanded. The Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been specifically linked to him in recent weeks.

We put it to you: which team is best positioned to take a chance on him, and what kind of contract does he figure to receive?

Where will Ryu sign? (Poll link for app users)


How long will the contract be? (Poll link for app users)


What will the total guarantee be? (Poll link for app users)


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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Polls Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Hyun-Jin Ryu

107 comments

Free Agent Notes: Keuchel, Cards, Hudson, Nationals, Jays, Porcello, Rondon, Moose, Treinen

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2019 at 7:48am CDT

The Cardinals haven’t checked in on Dallas Keuchel since initially showing interest in the veteran lefty near the start of the offseason, The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reports (subscription required).  While president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said told Saxon and other reporters that his team has been focused mostly on pitching during the Winter Meetings, “the Cardinals have chosen instead to slow-play their hand,” Saxon writes, perhaps to the chagrin of agents trying to get St. Louis involved in the fast-moving pitching market.  “For us, we’re OK being patient,” Mozeliak said of a rotation that currently consists of Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and the club’s biggest winter addition to date, the re-signed Adam Wainwright.  This decent group and multiple fifth-starter candidates on hand give the Cardinals the comfort in waiting until later in the offseason to add pitchers once asking prices from both free agents and trade partners could begin to drop.

More from the free agent market….

  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman) that he had begun talks with Daniel Hudson’s agent about a possible return to the World Series champs.  After being acquired in a trade deadline deal from the Blue Jays, Hudson had a huge role in stabilizing Washington’s season-long bullpen problems, posting a 1.44 ERA over 25 regular season innings and then a 3.72 ERA over 9 2/3 frames in the playoffs as the Nats’ closer.  This great showing down the stretch has Hudson asking for a multi-year deal in free agency, Zuckerman hears from a source, though Zuckerman isn’t sure the Nationals will make such a commitment to a pitcher whose overall performance over the last few years is far more inconsistent.  MLBTR did predict a multi-year contract for Hudson (two years, $12MM) while ranking him 28th on our list of the winter’s 50 best free agents.
  • In terms of other pitching needs, Rizzo expressed confidence in internal arms.  The general manager feels relievers Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland will be better than 2020 due to improved health, and Joe Ross, Austin Voth, Erick Fedde will seemingly provide all the competition necessary for the fifth starter’s job.  “I think we’re more than satisfied with our rotation,” Rizzo said, and with good cause, considering the Nationals’ starting four of Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, and the re-signed Stephen Strasburg.
  • With multiple pitchers flying off the board, the rotation-needy Blue Jays “began to engage more aggressively with” Tanner Roark, Josh Lindblom, and Rick Porcello over the last two days, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  The result was one miss as Lindblom signed with the Brewers, one success in the form of a two-year, $24MM deal with Roark, and one result to be determined as Porcello continues to weigh his options.  Toronto is also looking towards relief pitchers, as Davidi reports that Hector Rondon has received some interest.
  • Davidi’s piece also contains some interesting details on two other Blue Jays targets who signed elsewhere.  The Jays met with Blake Treinen’s agent prior to Treinen’s one-year, $10MM pact with the Dodgers.  Perhaps more surprisingly, it seems the Blue Jays put significant effort into a pursuit of Mike Moustakas, as GM Ross Atkins and manager Charlie Montoyo both visited Moustakas at his home.  Toronto wasn’t known to be an ardent suitor for Moustakas, though his left-handed power bat and multi-positional infield ability would have made him a quality upgrade for the Jays’ lineup.  Moustakas wound up surpassing all expectations by landing four years and $64MM in a deal with the Reds.
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Notes St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Blake Treinen Dallas Keuchel Daniel Hudson Hector Rondon Josh Lindblom Mike Moustakas Mike Rizzo Rick Porcello Tanner Roark

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Trade Rumors: Rangers, Smith, Lowrie, Blue Jays, Frazier, Cubs

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2019 at 5:21am CDT

The Athletics aren’t the only AL West team interested in Jed Lowrie’s services, as the Rangers have been in talks with the Mets about a deal that would send both Lowrie and Dominic Smith to the Lone Star State, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  However, “talks to this point have failed to progress” between the two clubs.  It’s fair to guess that Smith was the Rangers’ real target in these negotiations, as Smith would be the sweetener added to the deal in exchange for the Rangers assuming most or all of the remaining $12MM on Lowrie’s contract.  New York is reportedly trying to create payroll space by shopping high-priced names like Lowrie or Jeurys Familia to other teams.

Smith is perhaps a bit of a curious fit for the Rangers, given that Texas already has a plethora of left-handed hitting first base/DH/corner outfield types, and only just dealt from that surplus in sending Nomar Mazara to the White Sox.  Still, adding a 24-year-old with five seasons of control has obvious value for the Rangers, as Shin-Soo Choo’s contract is up after the 2020 campaign, and Ronald Guzman could become expendable in the event of Smith joining the roster.  While Lowrie missed virtually all of 2019 due to injury, he also offers more to Texas than just a salary dump if he’s able to stay healthy.  If Lowrie was able to recapture anything close to his 2017-18 form, he’d represent a good third base answer if the Rangers weren’t able to sign Josh Donaldson.

More trade talk as we near the end of the Winter Meetings…

  • Though the Blue Jays have been mostly linked to free agents this winter, the club is apparently being just as diligent on the trade front, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  In addition to Toronto’s known interest in Yankees southpaw J.A. Happ, the Jays have checked in with the Red Sox about David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr., and with the Pirates about right-hander Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove.  It doesn’t seem like any of these particular options are close, however, as Davidi notes that “the cost in both dollars and prospect capital remains too high” for Price, Bradley, and Happ.  The Jays and Pirates have been speculatively linked as trade partners since Ben Cherington recently went from Toronto’s front office to the GM chair in Pittsburgh, though this familiarity may not necessarily be a plus.  As Davidi puts it, Cherington “may think too similarly to his former colleagues for a deal to be struck.”
  • As the Pirates weigh a lot of interest in Adam Frazier, the Athletics are involved but perhaps no better than Pittsburgh’s third option as a trade partner, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports (Twitter link).  The left-handed hitting Frazier would be an ideal fit to help balance out Oakland’s heavily right-handed lineup, and would provide some experience to a young collection of second base candidates.  Frazier isn’t old himself (he is a few days away from his 28th birthday) and is still controllable through three years of arbitration eligibility.
  • While the Cubs are reportedly working hard towards swinging some (potentially major) trades, the possibility exists that the 2020 roster will look a lot like last year’s edition, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other media.  “The makings of a very good team is currently under control on our roster, with a chance to win a division.  And do that, and you have a chance to have a great October,” Epstein said, though “status quo is not a bad option, but we’re obviously out there looking to make changes and change the dynamic and improve.”  It could be that the Cubs won’t become big players in the trade market until most or all of the top free agents have selected their new teams.  In the case of Kris Bryant, for example, “officials from two teams aggressively trying to fill third-base needs…said the Cubs were asking too much for Bryant to seriously consider him while other options remained available,” Wittenmyer writes.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs New York Mets Notes Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Adam Frazier Chris Archer David Price Dominic Smith J.A. Happ Jackie Bradley Jr. Jed Lowrie Joe Musgrove Kris Bryant

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Pitcher Rumors: Cole, LA, Porcello, Roark, Reds, Brewers, Jays, Fish

By Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd | December 11, 2019 at 9:23pm CDT

The latest on several pitchers…

  • The Yankees won the bidding for right-handed ace Gerrit Cole on Tuesday, when the two sides agreed to a history-making deal worth $324MM over nine years. But the runners-up, the Angels and Dodgers, made mighty competitive offers in their own right. Both clubs were willing to go to eight years, with the Dodgers’ bid at exactly $300MM and the Angels’ just below that line, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Both teams’ offers included deferrals, whereas the Yankees’ didn’t.
  • Free-agent righty-hander Rick Porcello has a three-year offer in hand, but he’s more inclined to accept a one-year contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. By taking a short-term pact, Porcello would be betting on himself and pinning his hopes on bouncing back next year after a tough 2019. In possibly his last season as a member of the Red Sox, the former AL Cy Young winner struggled to a below-average 5.52 ERA/4.76 FIP, though the durable 30-year-old did pile up at least 170 innings (174 1/3) for the 10th time in his career.
  • Righty Tanner Roark came off the market Wednesday when he reached a two-year, $24MM agreement with Toronto, but a couple NL Central teams were also in the race for him. The Reds, with whom Roark spent the first half of 2019, and the Brewers pursued him, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. So far this offseason, Cincinnati hasn’t yet added to an already formidable rotation fronted by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. On the other hand, the Brewers made a low-risk, possibly high-reward signing Wednesday in grabbing former KBO star Josh Lindblom.
  • Speaking of Lindblom, the Blue Jays put a “significant” offer on the table for him before he headed to Milwaukee, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.  The details of that proposal aren’t known. Lindblom would up agreeing to a three-year deal worth $9.125MM.
  • The Marlins are drawing some interest in righty Jose Urena, Craig Mish of MLB Network reports on Twitter. The Blue Jays are said to be one of the clubs to have called on the hard-throwing 28-year-old, who’s under arbitration control for two more seasons. Fellow Marlins starters Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez have also gotten clubs’ attention, as upward of half the league’s teams have inquired about them, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets. However, Frisaro writes that it’s “extremely unlikely” the Marlins will trade anyone from that trio.
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Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers Notes Toronto Blue Jays Caleb Smith Gerrit Cole Jose Urena Josh Lindblom Pablo Lopez Rick Porcello Sandy Alcantara Tanner Roark

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Kole Calhoun Market Taking Shape

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2019 at 1:48pm CDT

We’ve yet to hear much of anything this winter regarding Kole Calhoun — a reflection both of the primacy of starting pitching on the market and the devaluation of the long ball around the league. The veteran corner outfielder has waited his turn as teams chase higher-priority targets.

Now, it seems some attention is beginning to turn to Calhoun and other possible targets. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays, Reds, Brewers, and Marlins all have some level of interest in the 32-year-old.

Calhoun was paid a $1MM buyout by the Angels when his long-time team decided not to pick up his $14MM option. He popped 33 home runs in 2019 and has long been respected as a hard-nosed grinder with a quality glove, but his nice season wasn’t enough to warrant that level of pay even on a one-year deal.

While Calhoun has at times produced well-above-average offensive numbers, his context-adjusted output wasn’t exceptionally productive in 2019. Over 552 plate appearances, he maintained a .232/.325/.467 batting line, good for a 108 wRC+. That was an improvement on his average-ish 2017 and awful 2018 showings with the bat, but hardly an otherworldly effort. Calhoun walked at a career-best 11.1% rate but also went down on strikes at a personal-worst 25.6% clip.

The initial list of potential pursuers doesn’t seem to portend a bidding war. The Fish are biting this year, but don’t seem likely to go wild. They’re also looking at quite a few other options, as are the Reds. The Blue Jays and Brewers both make sense but don’t seem likely to spend past their internal valuations for a player such as Calhoun. Of course, it’s certainly possible that other clubs are in the picture or could join it depending upon outcomes with other segments of the market.

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Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers Toronto Blue Jays Kole Calhoun

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Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner

By TC Zencka | December 11, 2019 at 4:59am CDT

Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, or Wade Miley. They could even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…

  • The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart’s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
  • It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
  • Speaking of: Andy Pettitte played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
  • The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincing Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.
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Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Andrew Friedman Andy Pettitte Bo Bichette Bryce Harper Dallas Keuchel Gerrit Cole Hyun-Jin Ryu J.A. Happ Madison Bumgarner Manny Machado Rick Porcello Scott Boras Tanner Roark Wade Miley Zack Cozart

255 comments

FA Rumors: Ozuna, Braves, J. Castro, Stammen, Peraza, Grandy

By Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd | December 10, 2019 at 7:29pm CDT

The Braves are interested in free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. This isn’t the first connection between the sides, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last month that the Braves were one of the clubs in on Ozuna. Now, though, it seems the Braves are willing to aggressively pursue the 29-year-old qualifying offer recipient. In the event third baseman Josh Donaldson leaves Atlanta for another team, the Braves would regard Ozuna as a viable fallback option, Morosi suggests. MLBTR predicts Ozuna will reel in a three-year, $45MM guarantee, and if he lands anywhere near that neighborhood, he should fall well short of Donaldson’s next contract. That said, replacing Donaldson’s bat with Ozuna’s would still leave a sizable hole at third base for the Braves.

Here’s the latest on several other free agents…

  • The Angels, Astros, and Rangers are among the organizations with interest in backstop Jason Castro, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). With Yasmani Grandal and Travis d’Arnaud off the market, the 32-year-old Castro could be the best catcher left on the board. The pitch-framing savant’s coming off a strong season in Minnesota, where he batted .232/.332/.435 in 275 plate appearances and earned positive grades in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
  • Several teams appear to be in the market for reliever Craig Stammen. The right-hander’s most recent team, the Padres, as well as the Astros, Diamondbacks, Reds, White Sox, Blue Jays and Cardinals have all expressed interest, per Morosi (Twitter links). Stammen, whom MLBTR projects for a two-year, $10MM guarantee, has put together a strong career divided between Washington and San Diego. The 35-year-old logged a 3.29 ERA with 8.01 K/9, 1.65 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent groundball rate in 82 innings last season as a Padre.
  • The Reds are one of the teams with interest in Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama, president of baseball operations Dick Williams revealed (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Clubs have until Dec. 19 to sign Akiyama, who had an impressive run with the Seibu Lions from 2011-19. It’s unclear what a potential Reds-Akiyama union would mean for Nick Senzel, their starting center fielder last season. Senzel could perhaps move to the corner outfield, which does look like a need area for the Reds.
  • The Cardinals are interested in re-signing backup catcher Matt Wieters, according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Goold). Whether it’s Wieters or someone else, the team seems intent on adding a veteran to play behind Yadier Molina. Wieters could wind up in Oakland if he doesn’t go back to St. Louis, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Athletics have shown interest in the 33-year-old to back up Sean Murphy. This is the second straight offseason in which Wieters has landed on the A’s radar.
  • The Orioles and Indians are two of the four teams that have shown interest in infielder Jose Peraza, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Reds non-tendered Peraza last week on the heels of an unproductive season, but he’s only a year removed from a respectable showing. The 25-year-old’s also controllable via arbitration through 2022.
  • Although he hopes to play next season, there has been little interest in outfielder Curtis Granderson, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The soon-to-be 39-year-old Granderson is a revered clubhouse presence who has enjoyed an outstanding career, but he’s a free agent at an inopportune time. Granderson struggled to a .183/.281/.356 line with minus-1.4 fWAR in 363 plate trips with the Marlins last season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Notes Oakland Athletics San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Craig Stammen Curtis Granderson Jason Castro Jose Peraza Marcell Ozuna Matt Wieters Shogo Akiyama

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Report: Yankees “Actively” Trying To Trade J.A. Happ

By Connor Byrne | December 10, 2019 at 11:15am CDT

DECEMBER 10: The Blue Jays have explored the possibility of a reunion with Happ, Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports (Twitter links). The Brewers are said to be among the National League clubs with some level of interest.

DECEMBER 9: Twelve months ago, the Yankees made veteran left-hander J.A. Happ one of their key offseason signings. After a solid 2018 divided between the Blue Jays and Yankees, New York re-upped Happ to a two-year, $34MM contract. Now, the club is “actively” seeking a taker on the trade market for the 37-year-old Happ, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.

The fact that the Yankees want to get out of the Happ deal isn’t particularly surprising, considering he’s slated to count $17MM against the luxury tax next season. If the Yankees succeed in signing right-hander Gerrit Cole, the No. 1 free agent on the board and someone who has a shot at a $300MM-plus contract, moving some portion of Happ’s money could help them avoid the highest level of the luxury tax ($248MM). As things stand, it seems probable they’ll blow past the first level of $208MM and likely surpass the second penalty of $228MM, Sherman notes.

In moving Happ, the Yankees would obviously be selling low. While Happ has long been a quality starter in the majors, things didn’t go well last season. Even though Happ did close on a good note during the final month of the regular campaign, he still ended the year with a subpar 4.91 ERA/5.22 FIP and 7.81 K/9 against 2.73 BB/9 over 161 1/3 innings. Going forward, Happ’s contract includes a $17MM vesting option for 2021 if he totals 165 innings or 27 starts next year. With those factors in mind, the Yankees don’t figure to have an easy time finding someone to take Happ off their hands.

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Milwaukee Brewers New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ

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Blue Jays Looking At Encarnacion, Smoak, Tsutsugo

By Mark Polishuk | December 10, 2019 at 5:57am CDT

The Blue Jays are weighing a pair of familiar names for their first base/DH vacancy, as Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link) reports that Edwin Encarnacion and Justin Smoak are “getting consideration” from the club.  The Jays also continue to be “intrigued” by Japanese free agent Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, though it “certainly doesn’t seem like they’re close on anything” with the slugger.

A fractured right wrist and a strained oblique limited Encarnacion to only 109 games and 486 plate appearances in 2019, his lowest totals in either category since the 2010 season.  When Encarnacion was healthy, however, he still wielded a formidable bat, hitting .244/.344/.531 with 34 homers for the Mariners and Yankees.  Encarnacion turns 37 in January and would likely be used mostly as a DH in Toronto, owing to both his age, the Rogers Centre’s artificial surface, and the Jays’ desire to see what they have in first baseman Rowdy Tellez.

With a market likely limited to American League teams and a relative lack of DH openings among those teams, Encarnacion could likely be had on a one-year deal, which is surely attractive to a rebuilding Jays team.  Bringing Encarnacion back would also undoubtedly be well-received by Toronto’s fans, as Encarnacion was a very popular figure while hitting 239 homers (the third-highest total in club history) for the Jays from 2009-16.

Smoak was another fan favorite for his five solid seasons with the Jays, most notably his 38-homer outburst in 2017.  Despite being perhaps the unluckiest hitter in baseball in 2019, Smoak still managed a slightly above-average (101 wRC+ and OPS+) offensive showing of .208/.342/.406 with 22 homers over 500 PA.  We haven’t heard much news on the 33-year-old Smoak this winter, though there was some indication after the season that the Blue Jays were thinking about a potential reunion as they weighed their first base options.

What could hurt both Encarnacion and Smoak, however, is that they are only first basemen, whereas GM Ross Atkins has a stated preference for first base “alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well.”  Tsutsugo has an advantage in this regard, as he has primarily played outfield for the last several seasons for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars while also having some first base and third base experience in his past.  While Tsutsugo isn’t considered to be particularly adept defensively at any position, the Blue Jays might not mind since he’d be slated for a good chunk of DH time anyway.

The 28-year-old Tsutsugo has an impressive .285/.382/.528 slash line and 205 home runs over exactly 4000 PA during his 10 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Major League teams have until December 19 to negotiate a contract with Tsutsugo, and clubs will then have to pay an additional posting fee (as determined by the size of the contract) to the BayStars under the MLB/NPB posting system.

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Toronto Blue Jays Edwin Encarnacion Justin Smoak Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

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Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Roark, Gibson, Gausman

By Mark Polishuk | December 10, 2019 at 1:09am CDT

Free agent left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu “is emerging as one of the Blue Jays’ prime targets” in the team’s wide-ranging search for pitching, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  With other major pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler already off the board, however, the Jays will face a lot of competition to land Ryu, particularly from teams that come up short on signing Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner.  Should the Dodgers fail to sign Cole, Davidi notes, Los Angeles would seem like a prime candidate to pursue re-signing a known quantity in Ryu — indeed, we’ve already heard reports that the Dodgers have Ryu in their sights.

“Right now, the Blue Jays seem determined to not block themselves out of a possible run at Ryu by doing something else,” Davidi writes in a separate piece.  Aside from the acquisition of Chase Anderson from the Brewers, however, the Jays haven’t done much to upgrade a rotation that was the team’s chief offseason priority.  It could be that the Jays’ deliberate methods of pursuing and evaluating every possible arm on the market are leaving them behind other teams who make a more direct push for a specific pitcher at the top of their list.  In the view of one agent, talks with the Blue Jays “are 90 per cent due diligence that doesn’t go anywhere.”

To this end, Davidi wonders if the Jays are really willing to spend “outside their comfort zone” to sign Ryu if he is their top choice, since if not, missing out on Ryu could also in Toronto missing out on several other pitchers who could sign elsewhere in the interim.  For instance, Davidi notes that “one path the Blue Jays are particularly keen on” would see Ryu and Tanner Roark both sign with the Jays, after the Dodgers leave the Ryu sweepstakes due to a Cole signing.  If this is the case, I’d argue there’s no reason the Jays couldn’t go out of their way to sign Roark now, as he wouldn’t require nearly the price tag of the top pitchers on the free agent market.  (MLBTR projected Roark for a two-year, $18MM deal, and in fact predicted he’d end up signing with the Jays.)  Toronto is nowhere near any kind of payroll crunch, given the team’s lack of financial commitments both in 2020 and in future seasons.

That said, the Blue Jays have done more than just talk, as the club made multiple contract offers to Kyle Gibson, as manager Charlie Montoyo told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters.  The right-hander ended up going to the Rangers on a three-year, $28MM deal.  “You hate to lose guys like Gibson.  I was there when we made the offers and they were pretty good offers, just somebody else made a better offer,” Montoyo said.

Kevin Gausman is another free agent hurler who doesn’t appear to be coming to Toronto.  Davidi reports that the Jays had interest in the recently non-tendered righty, but Gausman is likely going to sign elsewhere this week.

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Notes Toronto Blue Jays Hyun-Jin Ryu Kevin Gausman Kyle Gibson Tanner Roark

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