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Trade Deadline Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A ten-game losing streak in late June and early July seemed to close the door on Guardians' chances, but the club then won six of its last seven games to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break.  Cleveland doesn't play a single opponent with a winning record between now and July 31, so it certainly seems possible that the Guards can bank some more wins and put themselves more firmly back into the Wild Card race.  The Tigers' big lead in the AL Central likely makes that Cleveland's only path to the postseason, and 4.5 games and five other teams stand between the Guardians and the Mariners for the final AL card berth.

The Guardians are one of the more on-the-fence teams in baseball at the moment, and yet regardless of what happens between now and the July 31 deadline, the most probable scenario is that Cleveland will dip a toe in both the buying and selling directions.  If the club is still treading water by the deadline, some additions could still be made, even if they're perhaps more aimed towards reloading for 2026 than a significant push to contend this year.

Record: 46-49 (10.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, see this post.

Sell Mode + Potential Trade Chips

Impending free agents: Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis, Austin Hedges, Lane Thomas, Shane Bieber ($16MM player option for 2026, $4MM buyout), Paul Sewald ($10MM mutual option for 2026, $1MM buyout), John Means ($6MM club option for 2026)

Santana could be dealt whether or not the Guardians are contending, as the team would probably love to get the remainder of the veteran first baseman's $12MM salary off the books.  Young Kyle Manzardo has played well enough that Cleveland might entrust him with everyday first base duties, and clearing the 1B/DH situation would also free up more at-bats for David Fry, who is a DH-only player in his first season back from offseason elbow surgery.

The catch here is that Fry hasn't been hitting at all since being activated from the 60-day injured list, and Santana's modest 98 wRC+ still makes him one of the more productive hitters in a weak lineup.  Cleveland could look to play it both ways by dealing Santana, and then picking up a less-expensive, first base-capable player (probably a right-handed bat) to act as a complement to Manzardo.  Prospect C.J. Kayfus is a left-handed hitter but he could also be called up to help out at first base, as Kayfus has been shredding both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year.

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Guardians’ Luis Ortiz Placed On Leave Due To “Ongoing League Investigation”

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July 18: The league and the the MLBPA have jointly agreed to extend Ortiz’s leave through Aug. 31. The investigation is still ongoing.

July 3, 11:00am: Zack Meisel and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report that the investigation pertains to gambling.

9:35am: Guardians right-hander Luis Ortiz has been placed on non-disciplinary paid  leave through the All-Star break due to an “ongoing league investigation,” according to announcements from both the team and the league. The leave was jointly agreed upon by the league and the Players Association. The Guardians’ statement noted that they are not permitted to comment further at this time. Neither the league nor the team provided specific details on the nature of the investigation.

Ortiz, 26, is in his first season with Cleveland after coming over from the Pirates in exchange for first baseman Spencer Horwitz. He stepped right into the Guardians’ rotation and has started 16 games, tossing 88 2/3 innings with a 4.36 ERA, a 25.1% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate.

Ortiz had been slated to start tonight’s game for Cleveland, but left-hander Joey Cantillo will make that start instead. He’ll join a rotation also including Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi. The Guardians lost righty Ben Lively to Tommy John surgery earlier this season, while longtime ace Shane Bieber’s return from last year’s Tommy John procedure was slowed by a minor setback. Bieber recently resumed throwing.

MLBTR Podcast: Rays’ Ownership, The Phillies Target Bullpen Help, And Bubble Teams

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Which 2025 All-Star hitter and pitcher are most likely to be traded ahead of the deadline? (29:50)
  • Will the Red Sox trade an outfielder to upgrade another part of the roster? Could they get Joe Ryan from the Twins? What should Boston do with Tanner Houck? (36:15)
  • Could the Padres trade Dylan Cease and still compete, the way the Tigers flipped Jack Flaherty and still made the playoffs last year? What will the Friars add at the deadline? (51:50)
  • How will the Mets use Clay Holmes the rest of the way? (59:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Firings in Washington, Bad Braves, And An AL East Shake-Up – listen here
  • Depleted Mets’ Pitching, The Pirates Are Open For Business, And More! – listen here
  • The Braves Say They Won’t Sell, Jeimer Candelario DFA’d, And Injured D-Backs – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Guardians Place Paul Sewald On Injured List

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The Guardians placed right-hander Paul Sewald on the 15-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain, reports Tim Stebbins of MLB.com. The move is retroactive to July 12, and a corresponding transaction has not yet been announced by the club. It’s not clear how long Sewald is expected to be out.

It’s the second time this season that the 35-year-old Sewald has been placed on the injured list due to a strain in his throwing shoulder. The former D-backs and Mariners closer signed a one-year, $7MM deal with Cleveland in free agency and struggled for much of April before heading to the IL for what would wind up being a stay of more than two months. Sewald was only reinstated from the injured list on July 5, but it seems his return will only last for a week.

In his limited time with the Guardians, Sewald has pitched to a 4.70 ERA with terrific strikeout and walk rates of 29% and 6.5%, respectively. That’s all come in a sample of just 15 1/3 innings. Sewald allowed eight runs in 11 2/3 innings prior to his original IL stint (6.17 ERA) and returned with 3 2/3 shutout frames before now heading back to the 15-day IL. He’s been more homer-prone than usual in that small sample (1.76 HR/9) and has seen his fastball velocity dip from an average of 91.4 mph last year to just 90.3 mph this season.

Sewald has never thrown particularly hard, but his velocity has been in a steady decline in recent seasons. He averaged a career-best 92.5 mph in 2022 but dipped to 92.2 mph, 91.4 mph and 90.3 mph in subsequent seasons. His swinging-strike rate has dropped accordingly in each season, though he’s still managed to continue posting strong strikeout rates.

Sewald’s placement on the injured list just over two weeks before the trade deadline is increasingly notable, given his team’s recent slide in the standings. The Guardians dropped 10 straight games from June 27 through July 6, though they lessened some of that sting by closing out the first half with six wins in seven games. They’re now three games under .500 and four and a half games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League.

Cleveland will open the second half with winnable series against the A’s, Orioles, Royals and Rockies — all of whom have records that are comparable to or worse than the Guardians’ own mark of 46-49. If the Guards slip further down the standings, they’d be increasingly likely to listen to offers on short-term veterans like Sewald. If he’s facing a notable absence, that scenario is off the table. Conversely, if the Guardians slice through that slate of opponents in the two weeks between now and the trade deadline, they’d presumably be more apt to add to the club, and Sewald’s absence could increase the front office’s desire to add to the bullpen.

Which Other Draft Picks Are Eligible To Be Traded Before Sunday?

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The Rays made an “early” strike in deadline season yesterday, shipping off their Competitive Balance Round A selection (No. 37 overall) in Sunday’s draft to acquire righty Bryan Baker from the division-rival Orioles. Baker, 30, has had his two worst outings of the season in his final Orioles appearance and last night’s Rays debut — which came just hours after he was “shocked” to learn he was traded and boarded a last-minute flight to meet his new team in Boston — but carried a 2.58 ERA and 33.3% strikeout rate through July 5. He comes to the Rays with three additional seasons of club control, as well.

Following the trade, O’s general manager Mike Elias acknowledged that Thursday’s trade was “earlier than my comfort level” but that the timing of the draft and strength of the return pushed him to make a deal sooner than he’d have preferred (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). It’s feasible that other general managers/president of baseball operations feel similar pressure if presented with opportunities to add an extra pick over the next two-plus days.

As a refresher, Competitive Balance picks are the only picks in the annual amateur draft that are eligible to be traded. They can only be traded one time, meaning the pick the Orioles received for Baker — and the picks the Dodgers, Guardians and Red Sox received in trades of Gavin Lux, Josh Naylor and Quinn Priester, respectively — are now locked in place for those clubs. There are still a handful of selections that could be traded, however.

Here’s a rundown of the picks in Competitive Balance Rounds A and B. MLBTR has confirmed via industry sources that the picks held by the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets in Round A are ineligible to be traded, as they’re technically first-round picks that were dropped down into Competitive Balance Round A as penalty for exceeding the luxury tax by more than $40MM. Similarly, the picks held by the Rays and Brewers in Round B are ineligible to be traded due to the fact that they are compensation for failing to sign last year’s picks in Competitive Balance Round B. Picks that are eligible to be traded are in bold; those ineligible to be moved are in strikethrough font. The deadline to trade any of these eligible picks is 4pm ET on Sunday — two hours prior to the start of this year’s amateur draft.

Round A

  • No. 33 overall: Red Sox (acquired from Brewers in exchange for RHP Quinn Priester)
  • No. 34: Tigers
  • No. 35: Mariners
  • No. 36: Twins
  • No. 37: Orioles (acquired from Rays in exchange for RHP Bryan Baker)
  • No. 38: Mets
  • No. 39: Yankees
  • No. 40: Dodgers
  • No. 41: Dodgers (acquired from Reds in exchange for INF/OF Gavin Lux)
  • No. 42: Rays (acquired from A’s in exchange for LHPs Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez)
  • No. 43: Marlins

Round B

  • No. 66 overall: Guardians
  • No. 67: Rays (compensation for unsigned pick in 2024)
  • No. 68: Brewers (compensation for unsigned pick in 2024)
  • No. 69: Orioles
  • No. 70: Guardians (acquired from D-backs in exchange for 1B Josh Naylor)
  • No. 71: Royals
  • No. 72: Cardinals
  • No. 73: Pirates
  • No. 74: Rockies

The Tigers are the only clear buyer with a pick that can be traded, and it’s a prominent one. The Mariners and Cardinals are only one game out of a Wild Card spot in their respective leagues. Seattle is expected to act as a buyer and has been on the hunt for corner infield bats and late-inning bullpen help. The Royals (3.5 games), Twins (4) and Guardians (5) are all within five games of a Wild Card spot.

Fans would largely welcome the advent of additional selections becoming eligible to be traded, but that’s not in the cards for now. MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer joined Foul Territory earlier this week and told hosts Scott Braun, Erik Kratz and A.J. Pierzynski that the union is in favor of trading draft picks and has unsuccessfully raised the issue in past waves of collective bargaining (video link, draft pick talk coming around the one hour, 12-minute mark).

“This union has consistently been in favor of teams being able to trade draft picks,” said Meyer. “It would help competition. We think it would help small-market teams that have those valuable draft picks. They should have the flexibility to trade them if it’s in the best interest of the team. I think many teams would agree, but the league for whatever reason has, to date, been against allowing clubs the ability to trade Rule 4 [amateur] draft picks. We proposed it last time. It was rejected. I don’t want to commit to much for the next round of bargaining, but I feel pretty confident we’ll propose that again, because we think it’s actually beneficial to competitive balance.”

It should be noted that virtually any proposal in collective bargaining comes with some give and take. Meyer’s comments only portray one side of the discussion, and it’s not clear whether anything else was attached to that proposal. Regardless, it’s notable that the union’s lead negotiator has signaled a desire to again broach the subject of draft pick trades when the two sides return to the table to hammer out a new collective bargaining agreement.

Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

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The Phillies are known to be focused on bullpen help, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitting as much last month. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is showing more willingness to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get more controllable arms.

As noted by Gelb, this is in contrast to the club’s recent bullpen pursuits. At last year’s deadline, the Phils acquired Carlos Estévez, a rental. This winter, their big addition was grabbing Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. They appear to be dreaming a bit bigger ahead of this year’s deadline. Gelb reports that they are expecting the Twins to sell and have their eyes on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax.

The Twins aren’t surefire sellers just yet. At 45-47, they are only three games out of a playoff spot. However, the payroll appears to be tight, as they were limited to fairly modest moves in the winter. They signed Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France to one-year deals worth a combined $10.25MM. With ownership exploring a sale of the franchise, the front office may not get much more wiggle room to add this summer.

Even if they fall back in the standings and move more clearly into seller mode, they wouldn’t have to trade Durán or Jax. Both pitchers can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Both could be key parts of the club’s bullpen plans next year and in 2027 as well.

Durán is making $4.125MM and Jax $2.365MM. Both players will be due raises for next year but should still be underpaid. Jax has been dominant throughout his career, with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 63.9% ground ball rate. Jax also has strong numbers, particularly dating back to the start of last year. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he has a 2.77 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.6% ground ball rate.

Talented relievers who reach free agency can earn eight-figure salaries, so there’s lots of value here for the Twins. However, if they decide this isn’t their year, there would be an argument for making moves. Reliever performance can be volatile and injuries are quite common nowadays. Though holding Durán and Jax for the future would be understandable, it’s a path that does have some risk.

For the Phillies, acquiring one or both of those arms would bolster their bullpen for this year and potentially for the future as well. Romano is a free agent after this season, so it could proactively address next year’s bullpen and perhaps give the club one less thing to do in the winter.

But as mentioned, going this route would require the club to give up more notable prospect talent. Gelb suggests that Andrew Painter is still unavailable but the club might not have any other truly untouchable prospects.

Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy who could be moved. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Miller just turned 21 years old but is already performing well in Double-A. In 64 games at that level, he has just seven home runs but has a 14.1% walk rate and has stolen 31 bases while holding down the shortstop position.

That combination of skills makes him a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport. It’s rare for those kinds of players to be available but perhaps the Phils have the right amount of urgency. They have been in the playoffs a lot lately with a strong roster but without getting a ring. Many of their core players are now between 32 and 36 years old, so perhaps the club wants to strike before the aging curve slopes more steeply.

Gelb mentions that the Phils probably wouldn’t flip someone like Mick Abel for a rental but it doesn’t seem like he’s completely unavailable. He also mentions Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait as prospects who could be of note in the coming weeks. Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane and Jean Cabrera get mentioned as intriguing potential secondary pieces.

Gelb also floats Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians as a fit similar to Durán or Jax. Clase has been Cleveland’s closer for years now but the club is in a tight spot this season. They are a bit behind the Twins, currently at 43-48 and 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. Clase is making just $4.5MM this year, $6MM next year and then there are two $10MM club options with $2MM buyouts.

Clase hasn’t been quite as dominant this year. His 22.9% strikeout rate is a couple of ticks below his 24.6% career rate. His 45.8% ground ball rate is still above average but far off his 58.8% career rate. Regardless, he has still been quite good and there’s loads of value in his contract. The Guardians could certainly keep him around beyond this campaign, though if the Phils are dangling notable prospects, they will probably answer the phone.

Another consideration of the Phils is shaking up their outfield, according to Gelb, including trading from their major league outfield. Both Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler have been somewhat disappointing at times this year and it’s been previously reported that the club may want to make room for prospect Justin Crawford.

Crawford is slashing .339/.410/.444 in Triple-A this year, despite only having two home runs. He won’t keep a .417 batting average on balls in play forever but he has an 11% walk rate and his speed has helped him steal 28 bases and run down balls in center field. Kepler, meanwhile, is hitting .213/.307/.378 on the season. Marsh started slow but has been heating up and is now at .265/.341/.378 for the whole year. He’s also controlled for two more seasons after this one, while Kepler is signed to a one-year deal.

That means Kepler is probably viewed as more disposable by the Phils but Marsh is surely more capable of bringing back a return that could help elsewhere on the roster. Kepler is making $10MM but Marsh just $3MM. Marsh is also a somewhat-capable center fielder, which is a weak spot in the league-wide market. His defense isn’t strong up the middle but a team without better options might take a chance on him.

If the Phils think Crawford can immediately come up and hit major league pitching, there’s an argument to flipping someone and bringing him up, though it’s a risky plan. Even the best prospects in the world can struggle when first exposed to the big leagues, so it would certainly be a gamble.

It’s an interesting dynamic with the deadline approaching. Dombrowski has a gunslinger reputation and there are some signs that his trigger finger is getting itchy. On the other hand, the flip side of the Phils having a veteran-laden roster is that they will need young players to step up in the near future. Dealing prospects would cut into Philadelphia’s ability to organically shift from one era to another but perhaps they focused enough on the present to make a bold move.

Photo courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images

Guardians Re-Sign Kolby Allard, Option Tim Herrin

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The Guardians announced that they have re-signed left-hander Kolby Allard to a minor league deal and selected him to the big league roster. He had just elected free agency yesterday. Fellow lefty Tim Herrin has been optioned to Triple-A Columbus in a corresponding active roster move. The 40-man roster had a couple of vacancies.

Allard was added to Cleveland’s roster in late April and spent a few months working as a long reliever. In 16 appearances, he logged 35 1/3 innings with a 2.55 earned run average. That ERA wasn’t sustainable. His 5.3% walk rate was strong but his 10.5% strikeout rate was tiny, the lowest in the majors this year among guys with at least 30 innings pitched. A 3.6% homer to fly ball rate helped him have an 80.9% strand rate. His 5.07 SIERA this year and his 5.59 career ERA suggested regression was likely.

The Guards designated him for assignment last week. He cleared waivers and, as mentioned, elected free agency. The Cleveland bullpen was heavily used in recent days. The played ten innings on Sunday and Tuesday, sandwiched around a regular nine-inning contest on Monday. Many of the pitchers in their bullpen pitched in two or even all three of those contests. Slade Cecconi starts tonight and Allard could perhaps pitch multiple innings in relief, sparing the bullpen from further exhaustion.

Herrin’s optional assignment is notable. Over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, he tossed 93 1/3 innings for Cleveland with a 2.99 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 48% ground ball rate. He earned 17 holds in that time.

His results have backed up this year, more than his 3.99 ERA would suggest. His 21.2% strikeout rate is a few ticks below his prior work, as is his 40.3% ground ball rate. His walk rate, meanwhile, has shot up to 16.7%. If it weren’t for a .257 batting average on balls in play and an 80.4% strand rate, he would have allowed even more runs, with his 5.04 SIERA perhaps pointing to his true level of performance this year.

That seems to have put a big dent in his standing with the Guards. As mentioned, the club’s bullpen was heavily taxed in the past few days, with some guys pitching three games in a row. Meanwhile, Herrin hasn’t pitched since Saturday and is now being sent down despite being the freshest arm in the bunch. He’ll try to get back on track in Columbus and earn his way back to the big leagues.

Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig, Imagn Images

Kolby Allard Elects Free Agency

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Left-hander Kolby Allard elected free agency after being waived by the Guardians, per the MLB.com transaction tracker. Cleveland had designated the former Atlanta first-round pick for assignment last week.

Allard spent a couple months on Cleveland’s big league roster. He signed an offseason minor league contract and was selected onto the MLB club in late April. The 27-year-old southpaw managed an impressive 2.55 earned run average in 35 1/3 innings as a low-leverage reliever. Allard’s 90.5 MPH average fastball speed made him one of the softest throwers in the league, however. His 10.5% strikeout rate ranks last among pitchers who have logged at least 30 frames, and he’s sixth from the bottom in swinging strikes.

The lack of whiffs had seemingly begun to catch up with Allard in recent weeks. He allowed at least one earned run in four of his last five appearances, with opponents batting .395 in that time. Neither the Guardians nor any other club believed in the sustainability of Allard’s season-long earned run average. He’s out of minor league options, so any claiming team would have needed to keep him on the big league roster.

Allard has appeared in parts of eight MLB seasons, posting a 5.59 ERA in a little more than 300 innings. He has been a starter for most of his minor league career but has had a tough time sticking in a big league rotation, more frequently working from the bullpen.

AL Central Notes: Thomas, Ragans, Lynch, Cobb

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Prior to today’s game, the Guardians placed outfielder Lane Thomas on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 5), as Thomas is again dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot.  Infielder Will Wilson was called up from Triple-A to replace Thomas, who is headed to the IL for the third time this season.  The first placement was due to a bone bruise in his right wrist, and the last two placements were prompted by Thomas’ recurring foot problems.  Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt told MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins and other reporters that Thomas again started to feel discomfort in his foot during Friday’s game, so the team decided to see if the combination of an IL stint and the All-Star break can provide enough time for Thomas to finally heal up.

The injuries have contributed to a brutal .160/.246/.272 slash line over 142 plate appearances for Thomas, though he was starting to heat up a little with an .816 OPS and three homers in last 38 PA.  Thomas’ struggles have been emblematic of an ugly offensive year for the Guardians as a whole, and today’s loss to the Tigers extended the Guards’ losing streak to 10 games.  It increasingly seems like Cleveland will be sellers at the deadline, yet Thomas’ injuries and lack of production will probably mean the Guards won’t be able to move the impending free agent.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Cole Ragans will resume throwing tomorrow after an MRI came back clean, Royals manager Matt Quatraro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters.  The Royals ace hasn’t thrown since suffering a left rotator cuff strain in early June, so with that four-week shutdown period now over, Ragans can get started on the early stages of what could be a lengthy ramp-up plan.  It doesn’t appear likely that Ragans will be back in the K.C. rotation before the July 31 deadline, and his progress will surely be a factor in whatever decisions the Royals face about buying or selling.  Today’s win over the Diamondbacks bumped Kansas City up to a modest 43-48 record, and the club sits 5.5 games out of the final AL Wild card slot.
  • Another injury arose for the Royals prior to today’s game, as the club placed left-hander Daniel Lynch IV on the 15-day IL due to nerve irritation in his throwing elbow.  Right-hander Jonathan Bowlan was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Lynch will undergo further testing tomorrow to determine the severity of the injury.  The former top prospect has settled into a relief role (with a pair of opener starts this season) in Kansas City, and has managed a 2.59 ERA over 41 2/3 innings despite lackluster strikeout and walk rates.  With Lynch out, Angel Zerpa and the struggling Sam Long are the remaining left-handed options in the Kansas City bullpen.
  • Alex Cobb was slated to resume playing catch yesterday after receiving an anti-inflammatory injection in his left hip, as per a Tigers medical update from Friday.  Cobb has yet to pitch this season due to inflammation in his right hip, and he has made three minor league rehab outings but recurring discomfort in both hips has halted those rehab assignments.  Cobb has now received multiple injections in both hips, and it remains to be seen when (or even if) the right-hander will be able to make his official debut on Detroit’s big league roster.  The Tigers signed Cobb to a one-year, $15MM free agent deal this past winter, taking the risk on the veteran following his injury-riddled 2024 campaign.

Guardians Designate Kolby Allard For Assignment

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The Guardians designated left-hander Kolby Allard for assignment Thursday, per a team announcement. Between Allard’s DFA and right-hander Luis Ortiz’s placement on paid administrative leave while he is the subject of a gambling investigation by the league, Cleveland needed to fill a pair of roster spots. They’ve recalled lefties Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy from Triple-A to round out the staff. Cantillo will start tonight’s game in place of Ortiz.

Allard, 27, was a first-round pick by the Braves back in 2015. He ranked among Atlanta’s most promising young pitchers for several years but never established himself in the rotation there, in no small part due to a series of back injuries that limited his time on the field and impacted his production when he was able to take the mound.

Atlanta traded Allard to Texas in exchange for Chris Martin back in 2019, and he spent parts of four seasons struggling as an up-and-down member of the Rangers’ staff. He returned to the Braves in 2023 and spent 2024 with the Phillies, getting hit hard in both stops. By the time Cleveland signed Allard to a minor league deal this past offseason, he had a career 5.99 ERA in 272 innings.

On the surface, things have gone well for Allard in Cleveland. He’s pitched 35 1/3 innings, mostly in long relief, and posted a terrific 2.55 earned run average. That number doesn’t tell the whole story, however; Allard’s 10.5% strikeout rate is the lowest among the 318 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 30 innings in 2025. Entering the season, he’d seen nearly 16% of the fly-balls he’s allowed in his career land over the fence as home runs. He’s at just 3.6% in that regard this year, which seems bound to regress — as does his 81% strand rate (66% entering the season). Allard’s 3.60 FIP is more than a full run north of his actual ERA, and metrics like xFIP (5.19) and SIERA (5.07), which normalize that fluky home run rate, are even more bearish.

The Guardians will either trade Allard or place him on waivers within the next five days. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so he’ll know the outcome of his DFA within a week’s time. If he passes through waivers unclaimed, Allard will be able to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency — as is his right as a player who’s previously been outrighted in his career. Any team that takes a flier on Allard would be able to control him through the 2026 season via arbitration.

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